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linkedin-posts-scraper/out_posts.json

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2023-02-19 11:10:12 +00:00
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"text": "Ils p\u00e8seraient environ 1 milliard de tonnes, soit autant que la masse combin\u00e9e des humains et de leurs animaux d'\u00e9levage. Qui ? Les arthropodes terrestres, que nous appelons plus commun\u00e9ment les insectes : https://bit.ly/3XpnsYk (car les araign\u00e9es et les mille-pattes ne sont pas des insectes, ces derniers ayant 6 pattes).\n\nPourtant, leurs effectifs sont en baisse rapide. Ils le sont chez nous, mais aussi \"ailleurs\", comme par exemple en Asie : https://bit.ly/3Xto9j4\n\nDans cette tribune parue dans Le Monde, Stephane Foucart, journaliste sciences, rappelle une fois de plus cet effondrement en cours, tout en soulignant que, \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence du climat, nous n'avons pas de \"ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne extr\u00eame\" qui survienne de temps \u00e0 autres pour nous r\u00e9veiller un peu (ce qui, m\u00eame pour le climat, est h\u00e9las peu impactant, puisqu'aucun ouragan ou aucune s\u00e9cheresse n'a pour le moment conduit \u00e0 une baisse des \u00e9missions mondiales).\n\nLa cause de cette baisse est connue : ce sont les substances que nous introduisons dans l'environnement pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment pour supprimer ces bestioles rampantes ou volantes. Depuis les d\u00e9buts de l'agriculture, notre esp\u00e8ce fait tout ce qu'elle a pu pour partager le moins possible le r\u00e9sultat de cette activit\u00e9 avec d'autres esp\u00e8ces.\n\nNous ne souhaitons pas que le champ pr\u00e9vu pour accueillir du bl\u00e9 ou des poireaux accueille aussi des \"mauvaises herbes\", qui captent une partie des nutriments et du soleil : c'est la raison de l'usage des herbicides, qui sont les premiers pesticides utilis\u00e9s en tonnage en France. \n\nNous ne souhaitons pas que les \u00e9pis de ma\u00efs ou les cerises soient partag\u00e9s avec des papillons ou des mouches : c'est la raison de l'usage des insecticides qui permettent d'avoir le produit des cultures \"rien que pour nous\". \n\nLa cons\u00e9quence n'est pas une surprise : les effectifs de ces insectes diminuent. La solution semble donc \u00e9vidente, et sa contrepartie aussi : pour pr\u00e9server les insectes, il faut utiliser moins d'insecticides... et accepter alors de laisser une petite partie de ce que nous cultivons \u00e0 ces animaux, qui serviront eux-m\u00eames de nourriture aux oiseaux et \u00e0 d'autres esp\u00e8ces animales. \n\nCela fera fatalement baisser les rendements agricoles, et donc monter le prix de la nourriture. La bonne question est de savoir si nous \u00e9chapperons de toute fa\u00e7on \u00e0 une hausse de prix pour ce que nous mangeons. Car, sans insectes pollinisateurs, il y aura des baisses de rendement pour un certain nombre de productions, et sans insectes tout court probablement des \"surprises\" pour certains services \u00e9cosyst\u00e9miques dont nous b\u00e9n\u00e9ficions aujourd'hui.\n\nIl est \u00e0 craindre que, pour la biodiversit\u00e9 plus encore que pour le climat, il n'y ait pas d'action \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle tant que nous ne serons pas \"atteints dans notre chair\", avec au surplus la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire le lien entre ce qui nous arrive et la v\u00e9ritable cause. Pour la biodiversit\u00e9 comme pour le climat, un de nos adversaires les plus redoutables est le sentiment que nous avons encore bien le temps."
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"text": "En route pour la g\u00e9oing\u00e9nierie ! Si nous avons un exc\u00e8s d'effet de serre (= un exc\u00e8s de rayonnement infrarouge en provenance de l'atmosph\u00e8re), il suffit de diminuer un peu le rayonnement solaire re\u00e7u par la plan\u00e8te, et l'ensemble nous remet \u00e0 la bonne temp\u00e9rature. C'est b\u00eate comme chou non ?\n\nUne id\u00e9e pour y parvenir consiste \u00e0 placer entre la terre et le soleil un objet suffisamment vaste, et l\u00e9g\u00e8rement opaque, qui va intercepter une partie du rayonnement solaire et ainsi contribuer \u00e0 \"refroidir la terre\".\n\nLa m\u00e9canique c\u00e9leste nous indique en effet que, sur la ligne qui joint la terre au soleil, il existe un point - appel\u00e9 point de Lagrange - o\u00f9 l'attraction de la terre et celle du soleil dont de m\u00eame intensit\u00e9. Si l'on peut y placer un objet, ce dernier y reste (il est \"tir\u00e9 de chaque c\u00f4t\u00e9\" avec une force \u00e9gale), et se met alors \u00e0 orbiter autour du soleil \u00e0 la m\u00eame vitesse que la terre. \n\nIl y a donc p\u00e9riodiquement l'id\u00e9e de placer \u00e0 cet endroit de quoi rafra\u00eechir notre plan\u00e8te : de grands miroirs, ou, r\u00e9cemment, un nuage de poussi\u00e8re r\u00e9fl\u00e9chissante (https://bit.ly/3RYkybW ). A partir du pouvoir r\u00e9flexif des particules de poussi\u00e8re et de leur densit\u00e9, les chercheurs ont calcul\u00e9 qu'avec 10 millions de tonnes de poussi\u00e8re on pourrait diminuer la puissance solaire d'un peu moins de 2%. \n\nLa puissance solaire re\u00e7ue au niveau du sol \u00e9tant de 170 watts par m2 en moyenne (sur toute a surface et toute l'ann\u00e9e), 2% en moins ca fait 3 watts par m2, soit \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s le for\u00e7age actuellement du au suppl\u00e9ment humain d'effet de serre. CQFD.\n\nSauf que... 10 Mt repr\u00e9senterait 700 fois la masse combin\u00e9e de tout ce que les humains ont envoy\u00e9 dans l'espace depuis le d\u00e9but des fus\u00e9es. Si ca fait trop depuis la Terre, partons de la Lune ! Car en plus sur notre satellite il y a de la poussi\u00e8re \u00e0 volont\u00e9... Il n'y a qu'\u00e0 y construire une base permanente, et y d\u00e9velopper une industrie permettant de fabriquer fus\u00e9es et carburant \u00e0 partir de mat\u00e9riaux locaux et de rayonnement solaire (pour \u00e9viter d'amener sur la lune le poids des fus\u00e9es+carburants depuis la terre, ce qui \"ram\u00e8nerait au probl\u00e8me pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent\"). Une formalit\u00e9 :)\n\nPar ailleurs en arrivant au point de Lagrange les grains de poussi\u00e8re ont une \u00e9nergie cin\u00e9tique (la \"vitesse\" qui leur a permis de se d\u00e9placer depuis le point de lancement) et pas de p\u00e9dale de frein : ils ne peuvent \u00eatre \"arr\u00eat\u00e9s\" au bon endroit. Pire : si la position initiale d'un grain de poussi\u00e8re \"arr\u00eat\u00e9\" est \u00e9loign\u00e9e d'un km du point de Lagrange, au bout d'un an il se sera \u00e9loign\u00e9 \u00e0 plus de 1000 km du point en question (c'est un \u00e9quilibre metastable). Il faudrait donc r\u00e9alimenter ce nuage en permanence.\n\nQu'en d\u00e9duire ? Que la conclusion \u00e9vidente \u00e0 tirer de ce papier est que cette solution ne sera jamais \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle. C'est pourtant l'inverse que laissent penser quelques titres \u00e0 sensation relev\u00e9s ici ou l\u00e0. Avis aux journalistes qui ont relay\u00e9 ou veulent le faire : commencez par lire les petites lignes, comme avec les contrats d'assurance..."
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"text": "Il y a une grosse heure, j'ai comment\u00e9 ce post de L'Express pour corriger une affirmation erron\u00e9e contenue dans ce portrait auquel je n'ai pas contribu\u00e9 (le commentaire expliquait justement pourquoi).\n\nL'Express ayant supprim\u00e9 mon commentaire peu apr\u00e8s, je le reproduis donc en post. Je dois dire que je ne comprends pas ce qui motiv\u00e9 cette suppression : soit la personne de permanence sur le compte linkedin de l'Express un Dimanche soir regardait la t\u00e9l\u00e9 sans faire attention \u00e0 ce qu'elle faisait, soit elle a laiss\u00e9 le clavier \u00e0 son enfant de 2 ans, soit... le vilain mot de censure vient \u00e0 l'esprit, ce qui pour un media d'une d\u00e9mocratie ne serait pas terrible. Je suis volontiers preneur de l'explication si le journal veut bien me la fournir. \n\nVoici donc mot \u00e0 mot le commentaire que j'avais mis :\n\n\"L'Express la cause invoqu\u00e9e dans ce portrait pour mon refus de parler \u00e0 la journaliste est erron\u00e9e : j'ai d\u00e9clin\u00e9 avant tout parce que je consid\u00e8re que les portraits sont contreproductifs, et non d'abord par manque de temps.\n\nJ'ai expliqu\u00e9 par mail \u00e0 la journaliste que le \"portrait\" focalisait le propos sur le messager (qui est secondaire) et non sur le message, qu'il donnait toujours l'impression d'un parcours solitaire alors que tout travail se fait en \u00e9quipe, et enfin qu'il \u00e9tait par construction b\u00e2ti sur des points saillants (pour lesquels c'est facile de mettre des \u00e9tiquettes pour ou contre) qui crispent le d\u00e9bat alors que nous avons besoin de nous parler. J'ai ajout\u00e9 qu'en cons\u00e9quence je ne souhaitais pas y passer du temps. \n\nC'est pour le m\u00eame genre de raison que je n'avais pas envie d'\u00eatre nomm\u00e9 \"personnalit\u00e9 de l'ann\u00e9e\" : ce n'est pas sur moi qu'il faut concentrer les moyens \u00e9ditoriaux mais sur le fond. \n\nLe r\u00e9sultat me donne h\u00e9las raison : je ne vois pas en quoi cet article va aider la prise de d\u00e9cision pour notre avenir. Il servira au mieux \u00e0 alimenter \"ma\" page wikipedia (dont je n'ai pas \u00e9crit une ligne) o\u00f9, la derni\u00e8re fois que j'ai regard\u00e9, j'ai compt\u00e9 plus de 90 erreurs factuelles ou d'interpr\u00e9tation.\"\n\nMon commentaire ne caresse pas le magazine dans le sens du poil, mais il fait partie d'un droit de r\u00e9ponse normal, et je n'ai pas l'impression qu'il soit injurieux ou insultant. Sa suppression reste donc une \u00e9nigme. \n\nPuisqu'un post offre plus de place qu'un commentaire j'en profite pour rajouter deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments.\n\n1 - Mon temps professionnel est essentiellement affect\u00e9 (dans cet ordre) au quotidien de Carbone 4, \u00e0 celui du Shift Project, \u00e0 des conf\u00e9rences et interventions, et \u00e0 des publications. Les media et les politiques sont marginaux en termes de temps pass\u00e9. Ce portrait ne mentionne ni C4 ni The Shift Project...\n\n2 - c'est \u00e0 nouveau le nucl\u00e9aire qui m'est coll\u00e9 sur la figure comme \"premier \u00e9l\u00e9ment distinctif\". Il suffit pourtant d'\u00e9couter n'importe laquelle de mes conf\u00e9rences (https://bit.ly/3l9HEzR ) pour voir que cela ne correspond pas \u00e0 mon discours. Mais \"pronucl\u00e9aire\" ca doit faire plus de clics que \"vulgarisateur\"..."
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"text": "Les \"influenceurs\" ne sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pas consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme des grands amis de la lutte contre le changement climatique. Promouvoir des chaussures, des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones, des s\u00e9jours \u00e0 l'\u00e9tranger ou des cosm\u00e9tiques, tout en sautant d'un avion \u00e0 l'autre pour les prises de vues, c'est un peu compliqu\u00e9 \u00e0 marier avec la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nC'est apr\u00e8s ce constat que Vinz Kant\u00e9 a bascul\u00e9 de la promotion publicitaire au militantisme climat (avec la cr\u00e9ation de la chaine Limit : https://lnkd.in/eGdVN6Vw ). Mais il y a un prix \u00e0 payer, au sens propre du terme : comme il le dit lui-m\u00eame dans cette vid\u00e9o, cela s'est accompagn\u00e9 d'une tr\u00e8s forte baisse de ses revenus.\n\nIl lui est r\u00e9cemment venu l'id\u00e9e d'aller dialoguer avec des \"coll\u00e8gues\" de l'influence (qui l'accepteraient) comment ils et elles voyaient la question environnementale dans leur m\u00e9tier (et si ca leur causait ou pas des \u00e9tats d'\u00e2me). \n\nLa premi\u00e8re qui a accept\u00e9 de se pr\u00eater au jeu s'appelle Jill (elle est belge, comme celui qui la passe sur le grill). Il en r\u00e9sulte un dialogue int\u00e9ressant entre 2 militant(e)s \u00e0 leur fa\u00e7on, l'un pass\u00e9 \"dehors\" (c'est \u00e0 dire devenu un influenceur \"d\u00e9di\u00e9 climat\"), l'autre rest\u00e9e \"dedans\" (elle fait toujours le m\u00eame m\u00e9tier, mais dit pouvoir ainsi parler \u00e0 des gens pas convaincus).\n\nUne partie de l'\u00e9change tourne donc autour de cette question \u00e9ternelle : pour changer le syst\u00e8me, est-ce plus efficace d'\u00eatre dedans ou dehors ? En fait c'est probablement un faux d\u00e9bat : il faut les deux. Depuis \"dehors\" on d\u00e9stabilise (et sans d\u00e9stabilisation personne ne cherche \u00e0 changer) ; depuis \"dedans\" on construit (phase indispensable apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9stabilisation). \n\nLa meilleure partie de la vid\u00e9o est \u00e0 la fin, avec tout d'abord des statistiques (dont je ne sais pas si elles sont repr\u00e9sentatives du m\u00e9tier) sur les diverses cat\u00e9gories de produits dont Jill a fait la promotion. En premi\u00e8re approximation, la quasi-totalit\u00e9 de ce qui permet \u00e0 cette influenceuse de gagner sa vie est constitu\u00e9 de produits ou services \"pas durables\" (sans que la d\u00e9finition en soit donn\u00e9e, mais quand on regarde la d\u00e9composition par cat\u00e9gorie de produits on arrive assez facilement \u00e0 cette conclusion).\n\nPuis vient le bilan carbone de la cobaye du jour : sans surprise, il est nettement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la moyenne, avion oblige, alors m\u00eame que l'int\u00e9ress\u00e9e consid\u00e9rait avoir fait beaucoup de chemin en installant des panneaux PV sur le toit, en limitant la viande et en minimisant ses d\u00e9placements du quotidien en voiture. \n\nCela illustre l'un des d\u00e9fis de la d\u00e9carbonation : familiariser le grand public avec la notion d'empreinte carbone et de \"contenu carbone\" d'un produit ou service. Car l\u00e0 comme ailleurs il n'y a pas de progr\u00e8s sans mesure !"
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"text": "Plus une entreprise est grosse, plus elle se pr\u00e9occupe de climat. On pourrait trouver cela paradoxal, dans la mesure o\u00f9 les plus grandes entreprises sont aussi, souvent, les plus mondialis\u00e9es et le plus financiaris\u00e9es, donc celles o\u00f9 les possibilit\u00e9s effectives de changer de mod\u00e8le sans y laisser une part significative de leur chiffre d'affaire apparaissent d'embl\u00e9e comme \"pas \u00e9videntes\".\n\nEn effet, \"se d\u00e9carboner\", en pratique, n'est pas juste remplacer les combustibles fossiles utilis\u00e9s en direct par des \u00e9nergies dites sans carbone (en fait il y en a toujours un peu) : il s'agit d'\u00eatre capable de survivre dans un monde o\u00f9 les \u00e9missions baissent globalement de quelques % par an tous les ans et d\u00e8s maintenant.\n\nCela signifie donc survivre alors que des mat\u00e9riaux, des circuits logistiques, des usages \u00e0 l'aval, des pouvoirs d'achat ou du temps libres seront de moins en moins disponibles. Et commet les entreprises qui ont le plus profit\u00e9 de ce que les combustibles fossiles nous ont amen\u00e9 sont aussi souvent les plus grosses, on pourrait penser qu'un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne de d\u00e9ni les \u00e9loigne le plus de regarder la question.\n\nIl n'emp\u00eache : selon cet article des Echos, 20\u00a0% des PME fran\u00e7aises ont calcul\u00e9 leur empreinte carbone, alors que ce pourcentage monte \u00e0 37\u00a0% lorsque toutes les tailles d'entreprises sont prises en compte.\n\nCertes la r\u00e9glementation explique beaucoup cela : ce calcul d'empreinte carbone est devenu obligatoire pour les entreprises de plus de 500 salari\u00e9s (et sous certaines conditions va l'\u00eatre pour plus de 250). Un autre \u00e9l\u00e9ment joue aussi : les PME comportent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement une proportion de cadres plus faible que les grands groupes, avec fatalement moins de personnes aptes \u00e0 consacrer du temps \u00e0 des sujets non imm\u00e9diatement op\u00e9rationnels.\n\nComme l'explique Cl\u00e9ment Ramos dans une interview adjacente \u00e0 cette article (https://bit.ly/3HGegKv ), pour les PME non financi\u00e8res c'est souvent un client important (priv\u00e9 ou public) qui est \u00e0 l'origine du premier bilan carbone, parce qu'il en fait une condition de son achat.\n\nPourtant cette approche poss\u00e8de une valeur ajout\u00e9e tr\u00e8s forte pour la raison suivante : les \u00e9missions viennent toujours de processus physiques ou chimiques. Tracer les \u00e9missions dont d\u00e9pend son entreprise, c'est doc inventorier les flux physiques (et parfois les processus chimiques) dont elle d\u00e9pend. \n\nC'est donc un premier pas indispensable pour comprendre combien il sera facile ou pas de survivre dans un monde qui va se d\u00e9carboner t\u00f4t ou tard, de gr\u00e9 pour cause de climat ou de force pour cause d'\u00e9puisement des combustibles fossiles et de for\u00eats \u00e0 couper. Voir un bilan carbone uniquement comme une obligation r\u00e9glementaire est rater l'essentiel de ce qu'il am\u00e8ne au pilotage strat\u00e9gique \u00e0 moyen terme (voire \u00e0 court terme), m\u00eame pour une PME qui consid\u00e8re tr\u00e8s souvent avoir peu de prise sur sa trajectoire globale."
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"text": "La \"Commission d'enqu\u00eate visant \u00e0 \u00e9tablir les raisons de la perte de souverainet\u00e9 et d'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de la France\", c'est un peu le Thinkerview de l'\u00e9nergie du moment. Chaque personne qui passe sur le grill dispose d'une heure et demie minimum pour s'exprimer, et globalement les questions sont assez pr\u00e9cises (les r\u00e9ponses parfois un peu moins !).\n\nQuand on regarde la liste des \"auditionn\u00e9s\", il est facile de constater que globalement c'est l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 qui concentre l'essentiel du \"temps d'antenne\". Certes Patrick Pouyann\u00e9 est pass\u00e9 \"dire bonjour\", mais globalement on ne parle pas d'hydrocarbures dans cette enceinte \u00e0 proportion de leur importance dans l'ensemble de notre syst\u00e8me \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.\n\nLors de cette audition de la patronne d'Engie, qui date du 6 d\u00e9cembre dernier, il a donc beaucoup \u00e9t\u00e9 question, sans surprise, de gaz. Qu'est-ce que que l'on y trouve ?\n\nD'abord, tr\u00e8s peu d'\u00e9changes ont port\u00e9 sur le pass\u00e9 de la DG d'Engie (qui a fait la quasi-totalit\u00e9 de sa carri\u00e8re dans l'amont p\u00e9trolier et gazier : https://bit.ly/3RfZwFd ) ou de son entreprise, alors que c'\u00e9tait le cas pour les autres \"auditionn\u00e9s\". Pourtant, avec le titre de cette commission d'enqu\u00eate, c'est bien du pass\u00e9 dont il est question ! Ont surtout \u00e9t\u00e9 abord\u00e9s les projets d'Engie et le potentiel de ceci ou cela \u00e0 l'avenir, ce qui est n\u00e9anmoins int\u00e9ressant quand m\u00eame, bien s\u00fbr.\n\nCatherine MacGregor affirme en particulier que le gaz fran\u00e7ais sera d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 \u00e0 20% en 2030 et totalement en 2045 (sans donner les volumes concern\u00e9s). Il y a 2 mani\u00e8res de faire du gaz d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 : la m\u00e9thanisation d'une part (par fermentation de biomasse renouvelable), et la production d'hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 d'autre part (ce dernier pouvant ensuite \u00eatre utilis\u00e9 tel quel ou associ\u00e9 \u00e0 du carbone biog\u00e9nique pour faire des combustibles gazeux ou liquides).\n\nL'hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 s'obtient soit par \u00e9lectrolyse avec de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e, soit par reformage du m\u00e9thane avec capture et s\u00e9questration de l'ensemble du CO2 \u00e9mis par le processus (voir https://bit.ly/3DgTyhr pour un rapide panorama).\n\nEn 2021, le seul gaz d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 vient de la m\u00e9thanisation et c'est 1% du gaz utilis\u00e9 en France (voir graphique en commentaire). La d\u00e9carbonation totale du gaz est donc un gros point d'interrogation qui, dans notre pays, fait l'objet de consid\u00e9rablement moins d'attention m\u00e9diatique que celle de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. \n\nDans cette audition, le biogaz est qualifi\u00e9 d'\u00e9nergie \"locale\". C'est vrai pour le v\u00e9g\u00e9tal qui finira dans le m\u00e9thaniseur. Mais ce dernier est fait de m\u00e9taux qui ne sont pas locaux, et les cultures ou r\u00e9sidus de culture utilis\u00e9s pour la m\u00e9thanisation auront utilis\u00e9 des engrais, pas locaux, ou des tracteurs, qui ne le sont pas plus...\n\nOn retrouve ici la question de l'imbrication des \u00e9nergies, qui rend tr\u00e8s difficile de savoir quel potentiel sera r\u00e9ellement accessible quand (et si) la \"production ENR\" ne b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera plus de la productivit\u00e9 industrielle globale amen\u00e9e par p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon."
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"text": "Dans les \u00e9missions d'origine agricole, l'un des postes importants en France est le m\u00e9thane \u00e9mis par le cheptel bovin. Ce m\u00e9thane vient de la fermentation des v\u00e9g\u00e9taux dans la panse de ces grosses bestioles, et ressort sous forme de rots pour l'essentiel.\n\nA cela il faut rajouter les \u00e9missions des cultures fourrag\u00e8res le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant (ma\u00efs, soja, c\u00e9r\u00e9ales, pois...). Ces cultures engendrent des \u00e9missions de CO2 pour la fabrication des engrais, et des \u00e9missions de N2O (un gaz \u00e0 effet de serre 265 fois plus puissant par kg que le CO2) lors de l'\u00e9pandage de ces derniers. Le r\u00e9sultat est que manger un kg de boeuf conduit \u00e0 l'\u00e9mission de plusieurs dizaines de kg d'\u00e9quivalent CO2.\n\nOn pourrait donc se r\u00e9jouir de la baisse du cheptel \u00e9voqu\u00e9e par cet article des Echos, expliquant que, depuis 2016, il y a une tendance en ce sens. Sauf que cette \u00e9volution n'est pas du tout pilot\u00e9e, dans un contexte o\u00f9 les \u00e9leveurs verraient leurs revenus maintenus avec des prix unitaires qui augmentent, et des m\u00e9thodes qu montent en gamme. \n\nElle est subie, \u00e0 cause :\n- du non renouvellement des exploitations (de fait \u00e9leveur est un m\u00e9tier tr\u00e8s contraignant et peu r\u00e9mun\u00e9r\u00e9)\n- de la hausse des couts (\u00e9nergie donc engrais, aliments...).\n\nMais en face les consommateurs n'ont pas modifi\u00e9 leurs habitudes alimentaires. La cons\u00e9quence est donc une hausse des importations, et par ailleurs une constance de l'empreinte carbone (pour \"la plan\u00e8te\", la situation n'a pas chang\u00e9). \n\nDans le m\u00eame temps, les consommateurs mangent de moins en moins de fruits et l\u00e9gumes, en particulier les jeunes : selon le pr\u00e9sident de l'Interprofession des fruits et l\u00e9gumes, les personnes de moins de 35 ans en mangent 4 fois moins que leurs grands parents (https://bit.ly/3Xwb7T5 ).\n\nIl y a donc la th\u00e9orie et il y a les faits. En th\u00e9orie, il faudrait que nous mangions plus de v\u00e9g\u00e9taux et moins de viande, et il faudrait que cela se fasse dans un contexte o\u00f9 les exploitants ne sont pas les premiers p\u00e9nalis\u00e9s par cette \u00e9volution. Rappelons que les exploitants agricoles, aujourd'hui, repr\u00e9sentent 2% du PIB, ce qui signifie que la production des denr\u00e9es agricoles brutes repr\u00e9sente de l'ordre de 2% du budget des m\u00e9nages. C'\u00e9tait plus proche du tiers il y a un si\u00e8cle !\n\nDans les faits, nous mangeons toujours autant de viande (et de plus en plus dans des produits transform\u00e9s) et de moins en moins de v\u00e9g\u00e9taux directement utilisables, et par ailleurs il y a de plus en plus de produits \"industriels\" (dont les boissons) et beaucoup trop de sucre.\n\nId\u00e9alement, il faudrait que le cheptel diminue dans un contexte bien diff\u00e9rent : que des \u00e9leveurs aussi nombreux g\u00e8rent des troupeaux plus petits et mieux valoris\u00e9s, et cela dans un contexte o\u00f9 la population modifie ses habitudes alimentaires pour que ce ne soient pas des importations qui prennent le relais (ce qui se passe aussi dans la volaille). Un sujet de plus o\u00f9 il faudrait se creuser un peu plus les m\u00e9ninges !"
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"text": "Emmanuel Macron r\u00e9pond \u00e0 vos questions sur l'\u00e9cologie, \u00e9pisode 3. Je viens de regarder cette courte vid\u00e9o (17 minutes). Ce format a le m\u00e9rite de traiter de questions d\u00e9tour\u00e9es, ce qui rend la critique (que j'esp\u00e8re constructive) circonstanci\u00e9e. Voici quelques commentaires.\n\n- sur le \"qui aurait pu pr\u00e9voir\" : \"on\" pouvait mettre dans le discours de voeux la pr\u00e9cision donn\u00e9e dans cette vid\u00e9o (que ce qui \u00e9tait impr\u00e9visible \u00e9tait la vitesse d'\u00e9volution) et qui levait toute ambiguit\u00e9. Y avoir pens\u00e9 sans l'avoir fait est hautement improbable et il reste toujours \u00e0 savoir pourquoi...\n\n- l'Elys\u00e9e a demand\u00e9 aux 50 sites industriels les plus \u00e9metteurs en France de diviser leurs \u00e9missions par 2 en 10 ans. Il s'agit essentiellement d'industrie lourde (acier, chimie, ciment). Cette derni\u00e8re a besoin de d\u00e9ployer des technologies nouvelles (hydrog\u00e8ne produit par \u00e9lectrolyse, capture et s\u00e9questration du CO2, recyclage chimique) pour baisser ses \u00e9missions de plus de 30% (voir le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise : https://bit.ly/3WqangU ). Cela demande que le pays fasse des investissements de son c\u00f4t\u00e9 (production \u00e9lectrique d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e pour l'\u00e9lectrolyse, organisation de la collecte de mat\u00e9riaux \u00e0 recycler pour les industriels...) qui doivent \u00eatre au rendez vous dans les temps impartis. Cela demande aussi une mani\u00e8re d'obliger les investissements des industriels pour y parvenir. Pour le moment le plan d'ensemble qui le garantisse n'est pas sur la table.\n\n- La \"taxe carbone aux fronti\u00e8res\" n'est pas une taxe (en pratique les importateurs devront acheter des quotas et le prix de ces derniers n'est pas connu \u00e0 l'avance), et surtout ce m\u00e9canisme ne s'appliquera pas, dans un premier temps, \u00e0 l'essentiel des produits import\u00e9s (il s'appliquera en gros aux \"commodit\u00e9s\" : acier, mat\u00e9riaux chimiques de base, ciment). \n\n- la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la question \"que faites vous pour le climat\" liste quelques actions dispers\u00e9es, mais ne donne aucune vision d'ensemble (existe-t-elle ?).\n\n- sur le plastique les mesures essentielles sont du c\u00f4t\u00e9 amont (moins d'emballages, plus de de recyclage, etc) \n\n- la for\u00eat doit augmenter sa capacit\u00e9 comme puits tout en contribuant \u00e0 plus d'usages aval, et cela dans un contexte d'adversit\u00e9 climatique croissante. Organiser cela demande des comp\u00e9tences et un plan d'ensemble qui est pour le moment sont plut\u00f4t inexistants c\u00f4t\u00e9 Etat. Ca ne se r\u00e9sume pas \u00e0 \"planter des arbres\".\n\n- la r\u00e9ponse sur les ZFE \u00e9voque des \"solutions\" qui ne seront pas d\u00e9ploy\u00e9es \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle - voire ne le seront jamais - au moment de l'installation de ces zones. \n\nPersonne ne travaillant seul, pas plus notre pr\u00e9sident que les autres, il est dommage qu'aucune r\u00e9ponse ne parle de la mise \u00e0 niveau de l'\u00e9quipe \u00e9lys\u00e9enne (https://bit.ly/2TcaAU9 ) sur ces sujets. Il me semble qu'il y a l\u00e0 une \"m\u00e8re de toutes les mesures\"."
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"text": "Dans le premier chapitre de \"Dormez tranquilles jusqu'en 2100\", j'avais fait remarquer que la \"crise des subprime\" avait suivi 3 ans de stagnation de la production de p\u00e9trole accompagn\u00e9e d'une envol\u00e9e de son prix, et que la d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration du PIB am\u00e9ricain avait pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 la crise financi\u00e8re et non l'avait suivie.\n\nJ'en avais tir\u00e9 l'hypoth\u00e8se que cette crise financi\u00e8re \u00e9tait un sympt\u00f4me - comme la crise de 1973 - d'une rupture de pente sur l'approvisionnement p\u00e9trolier occidental. En 1973, le monde industriel - essentiellement compos\u00e9 de l'OCDE \u00e0 une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 les BRICS ne pesaient vraiment pas lourd dans l'\u00e9conomie mondiale - avait vu la hausse de son approvisionnement p\u00e9trolier passer brutalement de 8% par an \u00e0 une stagnation puis une hausse beaucoup plus modeste (l\u00e9g\u00e8rement sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 1% par an).\n\nCela avait mis un tr\u00e8s gros coup de frein \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique, et d\u00e9clench\u00e9 le d\u00e9but d'un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne qui n'a fait que prendre de l'ampleur depuis : l'endettement.\n\nDans un article beaucoup plus fouill\u00e9 sur le plan \u00e9conomique que ce que j'avais \u00e9crit \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque, Matthieu Auzanneau (par ailleurs directeur du Shift Project dans le civil :) ) revient sur cette \"crise des subprime\" et documente pourquoi, selon lui, elle est doublement d\u00e9termin\u00e9e par un probl\u00e8me d'approvisionnement p\u00e9trolier. \n\nLe premier facteur d\u00e9clencheur est le choc de 1973, qui a ralenti la croissance et engendr\u00e9 une augmentation constante des dettes dans les \u00e9conomies occidentales apr\u00e8s 1973. Ce que soutient Matthieu Auzanneau - et beaucoup d'autres sp\u00e9cialistes du p\u00e9trole avec lui - est que le choc de 1973 est une cons\u00e9quence directe du pic p\u00e9trolier conventionnel am\u00e9ricain de 1970, \u00e0 une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 les USA produisaient un quart de l'or noir mondial (\u00e0 la m\u00eame \u00e9poque l'URSS c'est 15% et l'Arabie Saoudite c'est 8%). \n\nLe deuxi\u00e8me facteur d\u00e9clencheur est le pic p\u00e9trolier conventionnel mondial en 2008. C'est sur cet \u00e9pisode qu'il s'attarde dans son analyse, qui est convergente avec celle d'autres sp\u00e9cialistes du lien entre p\u00e9trole et \u00e9conomie, comme par exemple Michel LEPETIT (chercheur associ\u00e9 au Laboratoire interdisciplinaire des \u00e9nergies de demain - https://bit.ly/3XLS5Yk ).\n\nMatthieu Auzanneau passe par une observation de l'\u00e9volution de l'inflation, du taux directeur de la banque centrale, ou encore du d\u00e9ficit commercial, qu'il relie de mani\u00e8re argument\u00e9e \u00e0 l'\u00e9volution de la production de p\u00e9trole. \n\nDans un travail fouill\u00e9 du Shift Project publi\u00e9 il y a un an (https://bit.ly/3R8e1uV ), nous avions soulign\u00e9 que les 16 principaux producteurs de p\u00e9trole de la plan\u00e8te \u00e9taient probablement pass\u00e9s par leur pic de production en 2018. \n\nSi les m\u00eames causes produisent les m\u00eames effets \u00e0 l'avenir, cela signifie que le paysage \u00e9conomique et financier de demain pourrait bien \u00eatre plus proche de la collection de chocs et de crises qu'un \"retour \u00e0 la normale\", et ce quelles que soient nos aspirations sur les retraites..."
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"text": "Il pleut, donc il fait beau. Apr\u00e8s 2 mois d'automne (novembre et d\u00e9cembre), les trois quarts des nappes phr\u00e9atiques fran\u00e7aises ont encore tr\u00e8s soif. En effet, m\u00eame s'il a plu apr\u00e8s la fin octobre, il y a eu un tel d\u00e9ficit accumul\u00e9 avant que la situation d'ensemble reste d\u00e9ficitaire sur une large partie du pays, parfois tr\u00e8s fortement. \n\nAu surplus, fin octobre la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation \u00e9tait encore active \u00e0 cause d'un temps tr\u00e8s chaud, et les premi\u00e8res pluies de novembre ont donc \u00e9t\u00e9 alimenter les plantes et non les nappes. Il a aussi fallu humidifier des sols tr\u00e8s secs, ce qui a aussi utilis\u00e9 une partie de l'eau tomb\u00e9e qui n'est pas all\u00e9e jusqu'aux nappes.\n\nEnfin, lorsque les \u00e9pisodes de pr\u00e9cipitations ont \u00e9t\u00e9 intenses, une fraction a ruissel\u00e9 directement vers les rivi\u00e8res puis la mer, parce que l'infiltration dans un sol tr\u00e8s sec est plus difficile que dans un sol d\u00e9j\u00e0 un peu humidifi\u00e9. \n\nGlobalement, ce n'est pas maintenant que cette faiblesse du niveau des nappes est g\u00eanante. La v\u00e9g\u00e9tation est en dormance, l'agriculture ne pr\u00e9l\u00e8ve pas, et il reste de quoi alimenter les r\u00e9seaux d'eau potable le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant (https://lnkd.in/gG9eZM8 ), surtout que ce n'est pas non plus l'\u00e9poque de l'arrosage des pelouses et du remplissage des piscines.\n\nC'est au retour de la saison chaude que cela risque de poser probl\u00e8me. Si d'ici l\u00e0 la recharge n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 bonne (et donc qu'il n'y a pas eu suffisamment de ces d\u00e9pressions qui nous am\u00e8nent pluie et parfois vent, ce que nous appelons aujourd'hui \"mauvais temps\"), cela signifie que l'on abordera l'\u00e9t\u00e9 prochain - et ses possibles vagues de chaleur, puisque chaque \u00e9t\u00e9 offrira h\u00e9las l'occasion de battre le record pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent - avec moins d'eau pour l'agriculture, et pour les arbres quand ces derniers ont des racines qui vont jusqu'\u00e0 la nappe.\n\nL'\u00e9volution future d'une nappe est typiquement un processus qui a du mal \u00e0 \u00eatre mod\u00e9lis\u00e9 dans le cadre d'un climat qui se r\u00e9chauffe. Il est possible de faire des projections sur les pr\u00e9cipitations globales (sur une large zone) de l'ann\u00e9e, voire sur l'augmentation des \u00e9pisodes pluvieux intenses (moins bons pour l'infiltration dans le sol, \u00e0 pr\u00e9cipitations \u00e9gales, que des \u00e9pisodes continus), mais ensuite chaque g\u00e9ologie du sol est particuli\u00e8re, adjectif qui s'applique aussi aux usages locaux (qui d\u00e9pendent beaucoup des cultures et de la nature de la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation).\n\nPour autant, les tendances sont claires : il ne faudra pas venir se demander \"qui aurait pu pr\u00e9voir ?\". Il faut donc essayer au maximum d'imaginer ce que l'avenir peut nous r\u00e9server, pour limiter au mieux le risque de manquer de cette pr\u00e9cieuse ressource qu'est l'eau. Actuellement, faisons nous vraiment le maximum en ce sens ?"
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"text": "Tou(te)s en selle ! Apparu \u00e0 la fin du 19\u00e8 si\u00e8cle, le v\u00e9lo a rapidement vu son emploi augmenter, et en 1925 il offrait en moyenne \u00e0 un fran\u00e7ais autant de km parcourus par jour que l'automobile (alors nettement moins r\u00e9pandue qu'actuellement, c'est clair !).\n\nMais depuis 1940 son usage plafonne. Aujourd'hui, un habitant du pays fait en moyenne plus de km en avion par an qu'en v\u00e9lo ! Pourtant d\u00e9velopper son usage procure de nombreux b\u00e9n\u00e9fices :\n- moins de CO2\n- moins de pollution\n- moins d'argent \u00e0 d\u00e9penser\n- depuis qu'il y a une assistance \u00e9lectrique, apte \u00e0 transporter enfants et courses, et aussi \u00e0 monter les c\u00f4tes, sans trop souffrir\n- en univers \"congestionn\u00e9\" (ville ou p\u00e9riurbain) pas beaucoup moins rapide qu'une voiture\n- meilleur pour la sant\u00e9\n\nVu comme cela, on se demande vraiment pourquoi ce mode de transport ne repr\u00e9sente pas l'essentiel des km parcourus pour la mobilit\u00e9 dite du quotidien (travail, courses, \u00e9cole etc), qui repr\u00e9sente 2/3 des km faits annuellement en voiture, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement tr\u00e8s peu remplie (1,1 personne en taux moyen). O\u00f9 est le probl\u00e8me alors ?\n\nLe premier d'entre eux est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l'ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 potentiellement ressentie par le ou la cycliste qui chemine au milieu de \"beaucoup plus lourd que son v\u00e9lo\". La cl\u00e9 du d\u00e9veloppement du v\u00e9lo s'appelle donc des pistes cyclables. Et des pistes exclusivement cyclables ! \n\nLes itin\u00e9raires mixtes (pi\u00e9tons et v\u00e9los) n'ont pas plus de pertinence que si on autorisait les pi\u00e9tons \u00e0 descendre sur la chauss\u00e9e dans les rues o\u00f9 la vitesse est limit\u00e9e \u00e0 30. Comme je l'\u00e9voque dans cette chronique, il n'y a rien de commun entre un(e) cycliste allant \u00e0 son travail \u00e0 25 ou 30 km/h et un pi\u00e9ton qui d\u00e9ambule avec enfants ou chien, ou en regardant son t\u00e9l\u00e9phone...\n\nLe deuxi\u00e8me d'entre eux est la possibilit\u00e9 de garer son v\u00e9lo \u00e0 destination (qui peut \u00eatre le lieu d'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 un autre moyen de transport) ou chez soi sans se le faire voler. \n\nLe 3\u00e8 probl\u00e8me est que, l'automobile coutant plus cher, les constructeurs de voiture gagnent beaucoup d'argent que ceux de v\u00e9los, et donc emploient plus de monde. Cela en fait des interlocuteurs plus \u00e9cout\u00e9s des pouvoirs publics... qui tendent \u00e0 maintenir le syst\u00e8me.\n\nOn pourrait ajouter un 4\u00e8 \u00e9l\u00e9ment : la voiture est un objet de statut social. Il faudrait qu'une jolie paire de mollets le devienne un peu plus !\n\nLa voirie n'est pas pay\u00e9e par les automobilistes mais par les contribuables. Un cycliste l'est autant qu'un conducteur d'un engin d'une tonne ou plus. A l'heure de l'imp\u00e9rieuse d\u00e9carbonation, il serait tout \u00e0 fait justifi\u00e9 que la collectivit\u00e9 - qui fonctionne avec les imp\u00f4ts - assure aux utilisateurs de la petite reine autant de facilit\u00e9s \u00e0 se d\u00e9placer qu'aux utilisateurs d'engins motoris\u00e9s d'une tonne, \u00e9lectriques ou pas. \n\nIl n'y a plus qu'\u00e0 !"
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"text": "Un de mes coll\u00e8gues de travail m'a envoy\u00e9 hier la question suivante : \"\u00e0 quand faut-il remonter dans le pass\u00e9 pour avoir des \u00e9missions de 2 tonnes de CO2 par personne ?\"\n\nSi l'on inclut la d\u00e9forestation (qui a toujours accompagn\u00e9 la croissance d\u00e9mographique), la r\u00e9ponse est donn\u00e9e par ce graphique (compilation de l'auteur sur sources diverses) : \u00e0 1860. En effet, le CO2 issu des combustibles fossiles est \"r\u00e9cent\", mais avant il y a eu de la d\u00e9forestation, qui a longtemps \u00e9t\u00e9 le terme dominant dans l'ensemble des \u00e9missions humaines.\n\nSi l'on regarde juste le CO2 issu des \u00e9nergies fossiles (graphique en commentaire), en supposant que l'on arr\u00eate la d\u00e9forestation (ce qui pour le moment est h\u00e9las une vue de l'esprit mais finira par arriver, au plus tard quand il n'y aura plus rien \u00e0 couper !), la r\u00e9ponse fait un peu moins peur : on parle de 1940. \n\nPour \u00eatre \"compatible 2\u00b0C\", il faudra donc a minima ramener en 27 ans les \u00e9missions fossiles moyennes par personne \u00e0 ce qu'elles \u00e9taient il y a 80 ans. En d'autres termes, il va falloir \"descendre\" 3 fois plus vite que nous sommes \"mont\u00e9s\", sachant que \"monter\" ne demande aucune contrainte alors que descendre oui. Ce n'est clairement pas au train o\u00f9 vont les choses que nous allons y arriver.\n\nDans le graphique sur le CO2 fossile seul on constate aussi que les \u00e9missions par personne ont brutalement arr\u00eat\u00e9 de monter au moment des chocs p\u00e9troliers (et en tenant compte de la d\u00e9forestation il y a eu une baisse pendant 30 ans).\n\nCela illustre de mani\u00e8re directe que ces chocs n'ont pas juste \u00e9t\u00e9 une grosse variation de prix \u00e0 cause d'un blocus : ils ont mat\u00e9rialis\u00e9 le premier ralentissement physique de l'\u00e8re industrielle par d\u00e9faut de ressources. La production de p\u00e9trole ne pouvait juste plus physiquement augmenter de 8% par an (surtout que les USA venaient de passer le pic conventionnel en 1970...). La limite physique \u00e0 l'amont s'appliquera de plus en plus si celle \u00e0 l'aval n'est pas g\u00e9r\u00e9e.\n\nLa grosse bosse des ann\u00e9es 2000 correspond \u00e0 l'essor de la Chine (et de son charbon). Cet essor a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 un peu moins de 10 ans apr\u00e8s le Sommet de la Terre de 1992, o\u00f9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 sign\u00e9e la Convention Climat. Pour le moment cette derni\u00e8re a \u00e9t\u00e9 mise KO debout par nos aspirations consum\u00e9ristes et \u00e9conomiques..."
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"text": "Il y a la th\u00e9orie, et il y a la pratique. La th\u00e9orie, c'\u00e9tait par exemple le rapport du Shift Project \"Mobiliser l'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur pour le climat\" (https://lnkd.in/dNVfiau ), o\u00f9 nous proposions un certain nombre de choses pour que l'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur soit mis en coh\u00e9rence avec la d\u00e9carbonation en particulier, et les limites plan\u00e9taires en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral.\n\nMais en pratique c'est une autre paire de manches. Que faire des enseignements qui ne sont pas ou plus \"raccord\" avec la nouvelle donne ? On peut penser \u00e0 l'\u00e9conomie par exemple, qui int\u00e8gre tr\u00e8s imparfaitement la limite sur les ressources et le r\u00f4le central de l'\u00e9nergie et des machines dans les raisonnements. \n\nQue faire des enseignants qui seront trop nombreux dans un monde qui se d\u00e9carbone ? On peut alors penser aux \u00e9tudes de langues ou d'art par exemple : un monde plus sobre sera un monde avec moins de flux internationaux, et il ne sera peut-\u00eatre plus utile d'avoir autant de traducteurs, d'interpr\u00e8tes ou de guides pour touristes internationaux, et partant plus autant d'\u00e9tudiant(e)s faisant juste des \u00e9tudes de langues \u00e0 l'Universit\u00e9 (mais les langues en \"culture g\u00e9n\u00e9rale\" resteront importantes !).\n\nLa question n'est donc pas seulement d'ajouter un cours avec les bases physiques et biologiques d\u00e9crivant le monde dans lequel nous sommes entr\u00e9s : il faut que le reste de ce qui est enseign\u00e9 ne soit pas en contradiction, et pr\u00e9pare par ailleurs \u00e0 des m\u00e9tiers qui ne le seront pas plus.\n\nEt l\u00e0, nous n'y sommes pas encore. Dans un pays o\u00f9 la libert\u00e9 acad\u00e9mique est un principe tr\u00e8s fort (je ne discute pas du bien fond\u00e9 !), et o\u00f9 les enseignants universitaires sont inamovibles (m\u00eame remarque), r\u00e9orienter le paquebot ne se fera pas rapidement, et la question est m\u00eame pos\u00e9e de savoir ce qui pourrait d\u00e9clencher un changement au bon rythme (c'est \u00e0 dire pour demain matin).\n\nUne autre difficult\u00e9 est aussi soulign\u00e9e en fin de l'article du Monde : pour un enseignant chercheur, modifier le contenu de son cours, c'est potentiellement modifier sa recherche, et cela signifie que, pendant un temps, il ne publie plus (ou plus autant). Avec la sacralisation des classements (dont Shanghai) bas\u00e9s sur le nombre de publications annuelles, rien que cela peut \u00eatre un obstacle tr\u00e8s difficile \u00e0 surmonter pour les universit\u00e9s qui voudraient \"changer de direction\".\n\nIl est donc probable que l'innovation va avoir du mal \u00e0 venir \"d'en haut\". Pour le moment elle vient \"d'\u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9\", par exemple avec des cours en ligne que beaucoup d'\u00e9tudiant(e)s peuvent suivre en plus de leur cursus, ou d'\u00e9tablissements \"partis de rien\" (comme le Campus de la Transition cit\u00e9 dans cet article).\n\nIl y aura aussi de l'innovation partie \"d'en bas\", \u00e0 savoir les initiatives individuelles de certain(e)s enseignant(e)s, dont il faut esp\u00e9rer qu'elles inspireront le plus vite possible leurs coll\u00e8gues.\n\nCar, au sens propre chaque \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9sormais, il y a le feu !"
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"text": "Il va devenir un peu plus difficile pour les entreprises de pr\u00e9senter leurs produits comme \"neutres\". Pas totalement impossible (cela aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 l'id\u00e9al : https://lnkd.in/dGTt6Zs), mais plus difficile : l'entreprise qui affirme qu'un de ses produits est neutre ne pourra le faire que si elle a :\n- fait un bilan des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre du produit ou service concern\u00e9 sur l'ensemble de son cycle de vie.\n- \u00e9tabli et publi\u00e9 la trajectoire de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de CO2 associ\u00e9es au produit ou au service, avec des objectifs quantifi\u00e9s \u00e0 10 ans\n- pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 la nature et la description des projets utilis\u00e9s pour acheter des cr\u00e9dits (la \"compensation\").\n\nCela peut sembler un peu anecdotique de se concentrer sur la communication des entreprises au lieu de se concentrer sur leurs proc\u00e9d\u00e9s, leurs mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, les usages de leurs produits, etc.\n\nSauf que, dans un monde qui doit se d\u00e9carboner, le premier juge de paix auquel confronter les proc\u00e9d\u00e9s, mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et usages, c'est justement leur \"contenu en carbone\". Obliger les entreprises \u00e0 le mesurer, et \u00e0 le faire \u00e9voluer dans la bonne direction, est donc une figure impos\u00e9e pour que l'ensemble du syst\u00e8me se mette en mouvement. C'est bien l'objectif qui d\u00e9termine la nature de l'action \u00e0 suivre, et non l'inverse.\n\nLa sanction pr\u00e9vue en cas d'infraction peut aller jusqu'au montant d\u00e9pens\u00e9 dans la communication (donc plus d'un million si c'est \u00e0 la t\u00e9l\u00e9). A cela il faudrait probablement rajouter, en cas de condamnation, la r\u00e9putation un peu \u00e9corn\u00e9e de l'entreprise prise la main dans le pot de peinture verte, qui lui coutera aussi n\u00e9cessairement quelque chose, sur sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 recruter par exemple.\n\nEvidemment, l'id\u00e9al serait d'obliger \u00e0 communiquer sur chaque produit ou service son empreinte carbone sans autre forme de commentaire. A ce moment, plus besoin de se demander si un produit est neutre ou pas : on saurait combien a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9mis pour sa fabrication, point. \n\nLa difficult\u00e9 pour en arriver l\u00e0 est que, \u00e0 l'heure des chaines de valeur mondialis\u00e9es (aucun m\u00e9tal incorpor\u00e9 dans un objet disponible dans notre pays ne vient de notre pays, par exemple), on ne peut pas calculer le contenu carbone d'un produit de mani\u00e8re exacte sans que l'ensemble des entreprises - en France ou \u00e0 l'\u00e9tranger - qui ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 la sa fabrication ne disposent d'une comptabilit\u00e9 carbone analytique. \n\nComme il est peu probable que, la semaine prochaine, la Chine, l'Allemagne, le Mexique, le Chili, le Maroc et la Turquie, et en fait tous les autres pays, imposent \u00e0 leurs entreprises de tenir une telle comptabilit\u00e9, cela signifie que, pour un temps au moins, il sera plus facile d'interdire ce qui est grossi\u00e8rement faux que de mettre en place ce qui est quantitativement exact."
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"text": "On peut appeler cela un miracle ou une h\u00e9r\u00e9sie, selon le point de vue : selon Les Echos, les Pays Bas, pays de 42.000 km2 de superficie, est le 2\u00e8 exportateur mondial de produits agricoles et agroalimentaires, derri\u00e8res les USA, pays 230 fois plus vaste, et devant la France, qui est plus de 10 fois plus vaste, et tout cela avec 52.000 agriculteurs seulement, qui commandent forc\u00e9ment \u00e0 beaucoup beaucoup de machines.\n\nCar, \u00e9videmment, ce n'est pas tant aux vastes terres fertiles de ce pays tr\u00e8s dens\u00e9ment peupl\u00e9 que l'on doit cela, mais \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie. Le mod\u00e8le n\u00e9erlandais s'est bas\u00e9 largement sur les exploitations intensives qui demandent des engrais (du gaz et du p\u00e9trole), des serres (du gaz pour les chauffer et pour faire le verre), des \u00e9levages intensifs, impossibles \u00e0 approvisionner sans d'importants volumes de transport associ\u00e9s (pour faire venir les aliments) et des produits v\u00e9g\u00e9taux pas chers. Un mod\u00e8le fortement exportateur est aussi un mod\u00e8le fortement d\u00e9pendant des transports internationaux (du p\u00e9trole \u00e0 nouveau).\n\nCe d\u00e9veloppement est \u00e9videmment all\u00e9 avec une augmentation de quelques pressions environnementales (effluents ou \u00e9missions), et est d\u00e9pendant d'une \u00e9nergie abondante et pas ch\u00e8re. Le d\u00e9sir de limiter les nuisances environnementales et la \"crise du gaz\" rebattent fortement les cartes. \n\nRappelons que la production hollandaise de gaz, qui \u00e9tait encore tr\u00e8s significative il y a quelques ann\u00e9es, s'est brusquement effondr\u00e9e apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9cision d'arr\u00eater l'exploitation du plus grand champ gazier d'Europe du Nord (Groninge), qui avait fait de ce pays une petite Norv\u00e8ge pendant de longues d\u00e9cennies.\n\nCet exemple hollandais est en fait embl\u00e9matique de ce qui finira par arriver ailleurs. Une agriculture avec peu de monde, tr\u00e8s m\u00e9canis\u00e9e, tr\u00e8s d\u00e9pendante des transports amont et aval, et tr\u00e8s d\u00e9pendante des engrais et des phytosanitaires, est un enfant de la mondialisation, et aura du mal \u00e0 survivre face \u00e0 la d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. \n\nComme le paysage agricole est tr\u00e8s long \u00e0 r\u00e9orienter (parce que c'est un domaine de traditions, et parce que l'organisation globale mise en place ne se modifie pas en une semaine), il n'est que temps de se demander \u00e0 quoi elle devra ressembler si les conditions climatiques et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques de cette ann\u00e9e 2022 deviennent la norme, voire \"moins pire\" que cette derni\u00e8re.\n\nAu Shift Project, cela fait partie de nos ambitions pour 2023 que d'y revenir (le chapitre du PTEF sur l'agriculture n'est pas suffisant \u00e0 nos yeux et manger est raisonnablement vital). Mais nous esp\u00e9rons bien ne pas \u00eatre les seuls \u00e0 avoir envie de mettre un peu de jus de cerveau dans la question !"
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"text": "Moins cher, plus rapide en ville, et \u00e9videmment beaucoup plus bas carbone que la camionnette, m\u00eame \u00e9lectrique : le v\u00e9lo-cargo pointe de plus en plus le bout de sa roue en univers urbain (ou de sa p\u00e9dale).\n\nMoins cher \u00e0 l'achat, le v\u00e9lo cargo l'est presque d'un facteur 5 \u00e0 10 si l'on compare son prix neuf avec celui d'un v\u00e9hicule de type Kangoo (thermique ou \u00e9lectrique) neuf. Mais, avec une consommation de l'ordre de 10 Wh par km, il l'est aussi \u00e0 l'usage : face \u00e0 un v\u00e9hicule thermique il n'y a pas photo (6 litres de p\u00e9trole aux 100 km = 600 Wh de p\u00e9trole par km), et m\u00eame face \u00e0 une camionnette \u00e9lectrique il y a plus d'un facteur 10.\n\nSon bilan carbone est aussi consid\u00e9rablement plus faible : \n- la batterie \u00e9tant 100 fois plus petite (0,5 kWh contre 50 en gros) ses \u00e9missions de fabrication le sont aussi \n- le poids \u00e9tant 20 fois plus faible (50 kg contre 1000 kg) les \u00e9missions de fabrication du v\u00e9hicule hors batterie sont en proportion identique.\n\nM\u00eame dans un pays produisant toute son \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 au charbon, passer d'une camionnette thermique \u00e0 un v\u00e9lo cargo divise les \u00e9missions de livraison par un facteur de plusieurs dizaines.\n\nEnfin, en ville, il est plus rapide qu'une camionnette. Cette fois ci c'est l'espace au sol qui lui procure son avantage : les bouchons ont moins de prise !\n\nAjoutons que c'est aussi moins bruyant, et engendre tr\u00e8s peu de pollution locale (les particules des freins et des pneus essentiellement).\n\nPour autant il n'est pas difficile de voir que l'essentiel de ce qui circule en ville (du moins en Occident) reste actionn\u00e9 par un moteur thermique. A l'\u00e9vidence le v\u00e9lo cargo ne peut pas rivaliser sur tous les plans (un r\u00e9servoir avec le plein d'essence procure une bien plus grande autonomie qu'une batterie charg\u00e9e de v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique), et par ailleurs les moyens de transport sont toujours dimensionn\u00e9s \u00e0 leur usage de pointe et la charge utile maximale d'une camionnette reste sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 ce que peut transporter ce genre de v\u00e9hicule. Mais cela ne s'applique pas tout le temps, puisque quelques intr\u00e9pides \"basculent\" !\n \nLe t\u00e9moignage d'une des personnes interrog\u00e9es dans cet article indique qu'il a opt\u00e9 pour ce mode de transport \u00e0 la suite d'une panne de son v\u00e9hicule pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Il n'est probablement pas le seul qui ait opt\u00e9 pour le v\u00e9lo (cargo ou pas) contraint au d\u00e9but, par choix ensuite. Comme on disait dans une vieille pub, l'essayer c'est apparemment souvent l'adopter.\n\nPeut-\u00eatre que l'on pourrait imaginer que dans le cadre de toute formation d'artisan il y ait de mani\u00e8re obligatoire l'essai de ce genre de v\u00e9hicule :) ?"
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"text": "Sapin en plastique artificiel r\u00e9utilisable ou sapin naturel qui ne l'est pas ? C'\u00e9tait traditionnellement la question de la rubrique \u00e9colo sur les radios dans les jours et semaines pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant Noel.\n\nEn fait, cette question est l'arbre qui cache la for\u00eat. Car dans les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre associ\u00e9es \u00e0 cette f\u00eate de fin d'ann\u00e9e, les gros morceaux sont ailleurs, et principalement dans les postes suivants :\n- les cadeaux\n- les d\u00e9placements pour se retrouver en famille\n- et apr\u00e8s on va trouver la nourriture (car entre le fois gras et le chapon, c'est rarement un repas pauvre en produits animaux).\n\nDans cette chronique je n'ai pas mentionn\u00e9 les logements secondaires chauff\u00e9s, qui ne sont pas propres \u00e0 Noel, mais concernent toutes les vacances d'hiver, cependant c'est aussi un poste qui va peser quelque chose dans l'ensemble.\n\nFaut-il se priver de tout pour \u00eatre \u00e9colo alors ? Cet exemple illustre lui aussi que d'\u00eatre heureux dans un monde de limites va nous demander un peu de cr\u00e9ativit\u00e9 et des normes sociales qui changent. \n\nIl y a quand m\u00eame une bonne nouvelle dans l'ensemble : \u00e0 condition de ne pas incin\u00e9rer les coquilles ensuite (sinon le CO2 est rel\u00e2ch\u00e9 dans l'air), manger des huitres ne r\u00e9chauffe quasiment pas le climat. En effet le calcaire des coquilles n'est rien d'autre que du carbone atmosph\u00e9rique s\u00e9questr\u00e9 par le m\u00e9tabolisme des petites b\u00eates. \n\n1 kg de coquilles d'huitres contient 450 grammes de CO2. C'est beaucoup plus que les \u00e9missions de son transport depuis le lieu d'\u00e9levage. Il faut certes ajouter les \u00e9missions de l'exploitation ostr\u00e9icole, mais c'est tr\u00e8s certainement la prot\u00e9ine la plus bas carbone du r\u00e9veillon. Et la nuit sera plus calme apr\u00e8s une douzaine d'huitre qu'apr\u00e8s une douzaine de dindes aux marrons !"
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"text": "Certain(e)s d'entre vous se sont peut-\u00eatre demand\u00e9s un jour d'o\u00f9 sortait l'abaissement de la part du nucl\u00e9aire \u00e0 50% de la production \u00e9lectrique (initialement en 2025 quand Hollande est \u00e9lu pr\u00e9sident, en 2012) figurant dans la Loi de Transition Energ\u00e9tique pour la Croissance Verte de 2015.\n\nCette audition de Fran\u00e7ois Brottes (ancien pr\u00e9sident de la Commission des Affaires Economiques \u00e0 l'Assembl\u00e9e au moment de la discussion et du vote de cette loi, ancien pr\u00e9sident de RTE) donne la r\u00e9ponse. Cet objectif d\u00e9coule uniquement d'un \"jugement de Salomon\" rendu dans l'alliance Verts-PS de 2011, entre ceux qui voulaient un objectif de sortie compl\u00e8te du nucl\u00e9aire, et ceux qui voulaient en garder autant. La n\u00e9gociation a d\u00e9bouch\u00e9 sur ces 50% m\u00e9dians, cens\u00e9s contenter \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s tout le monde.\n\nMais Brottes dit dans la m\u00eame audition que, devenu pr\u00e9sident de RTE, il n'aura eu de cesse d'expliquer au gouvernement que cet objectif de 50% en 2025, qu'il a fait voter comme artisan de la LTCEV, n'\u00e9tait pas r\u00e9aliste ! Il dit aussi qu'il regrette de ne pas avoir pris l'avis de RTE avant de faire voter la loi... comme quoi de temps en temps \u00e9couter les gens du m\u00e9tier avant de d\u00e9cider plut\u00f4t qu'apr\u00e8s n'est pas n\u00e9cessairement une mauvaise id\u00e9e.\n\nBrottes insiste beaucoup sur le fait que la baisse du nucl\u00e9aire \u00e9tait n\u00e9cessaire pour \"d\u00e9velopper les ENR\", et que cela a \u00e9t\u00e9 \"un succ\u00e8s\". Mais la question ne lui est pas pos\u00e9e de savoir pourquoi taper sur le nucl\u00e9aire \u00e9tait un pr\u00e9requis pour augmenter les ENR, ni pourquoi il \u00e9tait pertinent de remplacer une production \u00e9lectrique sans combustion par une autre, sachant que les \u00e9oliennes et panneaux solaires (et le r\u00e9seau \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper, ce qu'indique aussi Brottes) ne sont ni plus ni moins renouvelables que les centrales nucl\u00e9aires (et pas n\u00e9cessairement moins risqu\u00e9s).\n\nOn apprend aussi qu'un r\u00e9seau avec beaucoup de dispositifs de production r\u00e9partis demande de l'\u00e9lectronique partout, alors que les r\u00e9seaux \u00e9lectriques \"descendants\" et les r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires peuvent fonctionner de mani\u00e8re analogique. Personne n'a demand\u00e9 si cela \u00e9tait g\u00eanant ou pas pour la souverainet\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.\n\nBrottes explique aussi qu'il a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 l'origine de l'arenh, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 une mani\u00e8re d'\u00e9viter la scission du parc nucl\u00e9aire entre deux exploitants (autre mani\u00e8re de supprimer le monopole, ce qui \u00e9tait l'objectif europ\u00e9en). \n\nEn fait le mal originel a \u00e9t\u00e9 de faire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 un produit \"ordinaire\", comme des chaussettes ou des yaourts, devant donc faire l'objet d'un march\u00e9 \"ordinaire\", au passage sans monopole d'aucune sorte. Une fois cette d\u00e9cision prise, il n'y avait que de mauvaises mani\u00e8res de s'en sortir...\n\nDans l'ensemble il faut s'armer de patience pour d\u00e9nicher les faits int\u00e9ressants dans cette audition, assez \"louvoyante\" et o\u00f9 l'absence de r\u00e9ponse claire \u00e0 la question pos\u00e9e est plus la r\u00e8gle que l'exception. Mais la compr\u00e9hension est parfois \u00e0 ce prix !"
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"text": "Fin du monde contre fin du mois : l'agenda pr\u00e9sidentiel a factuellement pench\u00e9 du deuxi\u00e8me c\u00f4t\u00e9 pendant la semaine qui vient de s'\u00e9couler. La pr\u00e9servation contre la fin du monde - comprendre la d\u00e9fense de la biodiversit\u00e9 - n'aura justifi\u00e9 aucun d\u00e9placement de haut niveau pour soutenir les n\u00e9gociateurs fran\u00e7ais et europ\u00e9ens, pourtant cr\u00e9dit\u00e9s du succ\u00e8s obtenu au Canada par notre premier magistrat sur ce r\u00e9seau (https://bit.ly/3FDV9P2 ). \n\nLe Qatar et le foot (\u00e0 moins que ce ne soient le foot et le Qatar) auront donc vu deux fois les roues de l'avion pr\u00e9sidentiel (dont Sud Ouest a \u00e9valu\u00e9 l'empreinte carbone : https://bit.ly/3Webuky ) en une semaine, la cote de popularit\u00e9 et le gaz ayant manifestement des charmes que les papillons et coraux n'ont pas.\n\nPourtant, si l'on replace les choses dans le bon ordre, sur une plan\u00e8te sans esp\u00e8ces v\u00e9g\u00e9tales et animales (c'est cela la biodiversit\u00e9), il va \u00eatre un peu difficile d'organiser des tournois de foot... et tout aussi difficile de faire tourner une \u00e9conomie. Incidemment, l'article des Echos ci-dessous contient la phrase \"Il faut rappeler que\u00a0plus de la moiti\u00e9 du PIB mondial est tributaire de la biodiversit\u00e9 et de ses services.\". Objection votre honneur : c'est 100% puisque sans esp\u00e8ces animales et v\u00e9g\u00e9tales il n'y a plus d'humanit\u00e9 et plus de PIB du tout !\n\nLa presse qualifie cet accord de succ\u00e8s parce que les aires prot\u00e9g\u00e9es doivent monter \u00e0 30% de la surface terrestre. Mais la vraie victoire, elle sera \u00e0 chercher, ou pas, dans les r\u00e9glementations nationales - ou \u00e9ventuellement les accords commerciaux - qui imposeront des obligations concr\u00e8tes aux acteurs domestiques. \n\nCar on peut appeler \"prot\u00e9g\u00e9e\" une zone qui en pratique ne l'est pas (par exemple une aire marine prot\u00e9g\u00e9e qui est chalut\u00e9e comme si elle ne l'\u00e9tait pas), ou encore cr\u00e9er une r\u00e9serve avec 3 gardes et demi pour des milliers de km2, qui restent en pratique soumis aux m\u00eames pressions qu'avant ou presque.\n\nLes obligations de transparence cr\u00e9\u00e9es pour les entreprises sont une \u00e9tape bienvenue, mais le Diable sera aussi dans les d\u00e9tails. Pour le moment, les m\u00e9thodes sont \u00e9mergentes (nous le savons \u00e0 Carbone 4 pour travailler dessus !), et les moyens allou\u00e9s par les acteurs \u00e9conomiques pour \"bien compter\" les pressions environnementales (biodiversit\u00e9 ou climat) restent bien plus faibles que pour les euros. On peut aller en prison quand on compte l'argent de travers (fraude fiscale, comptabilit\u00e9 non tenue, etc), mais c'est rarement le cas quand on compte le CO2 ou la biodiversit\u00e9 de travers !\n\nLe vrai s\u00e9rieux des pays ratificataires se mesurera donc \u00e0 l'aune de ce qu'ils seront capables d'imposer \u00e0 leurs acteurs domestiques. Pour la biodiversit\u00e9, comme pour le climat, il va falloir y consacrer un peu plus de temps que celui de simples f\u00e9licitations adress\u00e9es entre deux avions pour aller voir un match."
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"text": "Ce n'est pas une bonne nouvelle pour le climat : la consommation mondiale de charbon en 2022 devrait \u00eatre la plus haute depuis le d\u00e9but de l'utilisation de ce combustible. \n\nEn cause, il y a la tr\u00e8s forte hausse du prix du gaz liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9 qui a suivi les troubles en Europe (laquelle devait compenser au mieux par du GNL les importations disparues d'une partie du gaz russe), et qui a conduit \u00e0 un basculement du gaz vers le charbon pour une partie de la production \u00e9lectrique dans le monde. Rappelons qu'environ 2/3 du charbon plan\u00e9taire sert \u00e0 produire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (voir https://bit.ly/3uXedCM - qui date un peu mais l'essentiel reste valable - pour avoir un aper\u00e7u de ses usages dans le monde).\n\nL'AIE publie aussi un graphique qui d\u00e9compose la variation de la production \u00e9lectrique dans le monde de 2021 \u00e0 2022. Les deux \"moteurs\" de la hausse de la consommation de charbon dans ce secteur sont la hausse de la consommation \u00e9lectrique tout court et... la baisse du nucl\u00e9aire. \n\nDans un contexte de stress sur l'approvisionnement en gaz (qui \u00e9tait envisageable pour la p\u00e9riode actuelle \u00e0 d\u00e9faut d'\u00eatre certain), l'arr\u00eat des r\u00e9acteurs de nos voisins du Nord a en particulier directement d\u00e9bouch\u00e9 sur une hausse de la pire mani\u00e8re de produire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (voir https://bit.ly/3j60iYh ), ce qui se constate assez facilement en ce moment en regardant par exemple la d\u00e9composition de la production \u00e9lectrique disponible sur https://lnkd.in/ecWPwUDV\n\nL'AIE fournit aussi un pronostic d'ici \u00e0 2025. Dans ce dernier, la hausse attendue de la consommation \u00e9lectrique n'est pas assur\u00e9e en totalit\u00e9 par les renouvelables, et il y a aussi un poil d'augmentation de charbon. Certes la hausse est dans l'\u00e9paisseur du trait selon cette projection, mais si ce combustible solide suivait le chemin demand\u00e9 par la \"trajectoire 2\u00b0C\" il faudrait que sa consommation baisse de 14% (dans le monde) en 3 ans. \n\nAppliqu\u00e9e \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, cette baisse signifie 1450 TWh (\u00e9lectriques) de production au charbon en moins en 3 ans (1 TWh = un milliard de kWh). Par ailleurs l'AIE envisage une hausse de la demande \u00e9lectrique de 2500 TWh sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode. Pour que l'\u00e9quation soit tenue il faudrait donc 4000 TWh de production non carbon\u00e9e en plus, soit :\n- un doublement de l'hydro\n- ou une multiplication par presque 5 du solaire (qui a augment\u00e9 d'environ 14% par an de 2018 \u00e0 2021)\n- ou une multiplication par 3 de l'\u00e9olien (qui a augment\u00e9 d'environ 10% par an de 2018 \u00e0 2021)\n- ou une multiplication par 2,5 du nucl\u00e9aire (qui est stable de 2018 \u00e0 2021).\n\nM\u00eame en combinant tout cela, on voit le formidable d\u00e9calage entre les discours de d\u00e9carbonation et les actes. Si nous voulons 2\u00b0C, il va surtout falloir consommer moins d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans le monde...\n\nNB : la photo d'illustration choisie par l'AIE est assez mal venue : il aurait mieux valu montrer une mine ayant remplac\u00e9 la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation, ou un train traversant un paysage dess\u00e9ch\u00e9, cela aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 plus \u00e0 propos ! "
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"text": "D\u00e8s que l'on parle d'argent, cela int\u00e9resse du monde :) : pour la pr\u00e9sentation du rapport du Shift Project sur l'int\u00e9gration des enjeux environnementaux dans la formation des futurs (et actuels) salari\u00e9s du monde financier, avaient fait le d\u00e9placement jusqu'\u00e0 l'amphi Bruno Le Maire et Fran\u00e7ois Villeroy de Galhau, entre autres.\n\nNB : Pour celles et ceux qui n'ont pas regard\u00e9 cette pr\u00e9sentation la vid\u00e9o est disponible sur Facebook : https://lnkd.in/eAWNaJKd (aller directement \u00e0 21 minutes du d\u00e9but, car il y a eu un peu de retard, et avant c'est juste un plan fixe sur l'image ayant servi \u00e0 l'annonce).\n\nLe rapport en question a fait l'objet d'une pr\u00e9sentation synth\u00e9tique, mais vous pouvez d'ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 le t\u00e9l\u00e9charger sur la page d\u00e9di\u00e9e du site du Shift Project (lien ci-dessous) et voir quelles sont nos propositions pour les futurs employ\u00e9s du grand (et du petit, et parfois public) capital.\n\nDeux chiffres essentiel r\u00e9sument l'avant et apr\u00e8s :\n\n- actuellement, sur 1400 cursus (de formation de futurs \"financiers\") examin\u00e9s, seuls 5% int\u00e8grent les enjeux \u00e9cologiques de mani\u00e8re acceptable dans l'enseignement dispens\u00e9, et c'est essentiellement pour des personnes qui suivent un parcours sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans l'extrafinancier. Ailleurs il n'y a rien, ou quasi.\n\n- pour commencer \u00e0 disposer d'une compr\u00e9hension acceptable des enjeux (changement climatique, biodiversit\u00e9, ressources min\u00e9rales, etc), et de la boite \u00e0 outils pour \"penser syst\u00e8me\" et arbitrer les conflits d'objectifs, il faut compter un peu plus de 150 heures de formation. \n\nComme les \u00e9pisodes pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents pour les ing\u00e9nieurs et les gestionnaires, ce rapport aborde des questions tr\u00e8s pratiques, comme par exemple la formation ou le recrutement des enseignants, la conception d'une maquette p\u00e9dagogique, la question des classements, et plein d'autres aspects concrets auxquels est confront\u00e9 tout responsable d'\u00e9tablissement de bonne volont\u00e9.\n\nIl ne se passe d\u00e9sormais plus un jour sans annonce de verdissement dans le secteur financier. Mais pour passer des d\u00e9clarations aux actes il y a des \u00e9tapes incontournables : \u00eatre capable d'inclure la question environnementale (et en particulier climatique) dans les processus du quotidien, avoir des seuils et des objectifs servis par ces processus, et \u00eatre capable d'arbitrer les conflits d'objectifs qui sont in\u00e9vitables d\u00e8s qu'il y a r\u00e9orientation strat\u00e9gique.\n\nCet ensemble demande notamment (mais pas que) des salari\u00e9s correctement form\u00e9s sur les enjeux et les m\u00e9thodes pour les inclure dans les processus. Ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 hier soir n'est donc pas suffisant, mais \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence c'est n\u00e9cessaire : on peut douter de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 d'entreprises du secteur financier qui ne se pr\u00e9occuperaient pas de la mont\u00e9e en comp\u00e9tence de l'ensemble de leurs salari\u00e9s (c'est bien l'objet du rapport) et pas juste de leur \u00e9quipe RSE. Au travail !"
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"text": "La Commission est raccord avec The Shift Project, m\u00eame si c'est pour tirer une forme de signal d'alarme (https://lnkd.in/eVVGtZCc ) : la situation gazi\u00e8re actuelle ne fait qu'annoncer un avenir qui sera probablement de plus en plus compliqu\u00e9 \u00e0 g\u00e9rer, et ce d\u00e8s l'hiver prochain.\n\nLors d'un hiver \"normal\", le gaz utilis\u00e9 provient de deux sources :\n- les stocks qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 constitu\u00e9s pendant l'\u00e9t\u00e9, \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 l'approvisionnement (via gazoduc ou GNL) d\u00e9passe la consommation\n- mais aussi du gaz qui continue d'\u00eatre achemin\u00e9 en continu par les m\u00eames moyens.\n\nAvant la guerre en Ukraine, le gaz russe repr\u00e9sentait 40% des approvisionnement de l'Union. D\u00e9sormais Nordstream est hors service (il avait une capacit\u00e9 de 25% de la consommation europ\u00e9enne environ), et seul subsiste l'approvisionnement via le gazoduc qui passe par l'Ukraine... qui est un point d'interrogation. On peut tr\u00e8s bien imaginer que d\u00e8s que les russes auront r\u00e9alis\u00e9 les infrastructures physiques leur permettant de commercer avec la Chine, cet approvisionnement l\u00e0 aussi puisse baisser ou dispara\u00eetre (car il permet aussi aux ukrainiens d'avoir du gaz).\n\nAvant m\u00eame que cette hypoth\u00e8que ne se concr\u00e9tise, la faiblesse de l'approvisionnement \"en continu\" depuis la guerre pourrait obliger les europ\u00e9ens \u00e0 compl\u00e8tement vider les stocks pour passer l'hiver, et cette m\u00eame faiblesse nous emp\u00eacher de disposer d'assez de gaz pou faire face \u00e0 la demande l'hiver prochain.\n\nIncidemment cette faiblesse de l'approvisionnement en gaz devrait maintenir des prix de march\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9s, et, \u00e0 \"market design\" identique sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, maintenir des prix tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne.\n\nFace \u00e0 cela, les mesures palliatives sur l'offre sont lentes : plus d'ENR (ou de nucl\u00e9aire) demande du temps, outre que les ENR \u00e9lectriques non pilotables concourent peu \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement (il suffit de regarder https://lnkd.in/eRvA7w-a depuis une semaine pour voir que l'Allemagne - et nous via importations pour une petite partie - tourne fortement au charbon parce qu'il y a peu de soleil et peu de vent depuis une semaine). \n\nLes mesures \"purement techniques\" sur la demande sont aussi lentes \u00e0 mettre en place : on ne peut pas multiplier par 10 le nombre d'op\u00e9rations lourdes de r\u00e9novation des b\u00e2timents \"comme cela\".\n\nSi la baisse est significative, il y a donc fort \u00e0 parier que ce sont des \"mesures rapides\" sur la demande qui vont devoir faire le job (car de fait on ne peut pas consommer un gaz qui n'existe pas !). Baisse du thermostat, de la consommation \u00e9lectrique et de la production industrielle sont donc \u00e0 envisager. Il faut malheureusement aussi se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 cela."
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"text": "Quand bien m\u00eame il n'y aurait pas eu de guerre en Ukraine, notre continent allait de toute fa\u00e7on devoir faire face \u00e0 une baisse \"physique\" de la possibilit\u00e9 d'importer du gaz \u00e0 l'avenir. Bien \u00e9videmment, nos d\u00e9m\u00eal\u00e9s avec un pays qui fournissait, avant conflit, 40% du gaz consomm\u00e9 dans l'Union, agissent comme un acc\u00e9l\u00e9rateur, mais le coup \u00e9tait parti. \n\nTelle est la conclusion \u00e0 laquelle nous parvenons au Shift Project, \u00e0 l'issue d'une analyse portant sur les possibilit\u00e9s d'approvisionnement en gaz de l'Union Europ\u00e9enne sous seule contrainte g\u00e9ologico-technique (on ne prend donc en consid\u00e9ration comme facteurs limitants que le contenu des gisements et la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire des infrastructures d'extraction et de transport) : https://bit.ly/3HhowJ7\n\nCe travail - soutenu financi\u00e8rement par le Minist\u00e8re des Arm\u00e9es, RTE et le BRGM - a \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9 avec comme mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re l'inventaire de la totalit\u00e9 des gisements mondiaux (y compris ceux restant \u00e0 d\u00e9couvrir) fourni par Rystad Energy, ainsi que les les perspectives de production par gisement, ou encore les contrats d\u00e9j\u00e0 pass\u00e9s en GNL pour chaque pays importateur et chaque pays producteur. \n\nLe graphique ci-dessous r\u00e9sume notre analyse. Il fournit les divers approvisionnements identifi\u00e9s (via gazoducs ou via contrats pour le GNL) pour l'Europe, ainsi que divers niveaux de consommation possibles :\n- la courbe orange est du \"tendanciel avec \u00e9conomies\"\n- la croix jaune est le point d'arriv\u00e9e en 2030 dans le sc\u00e9nario \"Fit for 55\"\n- la croix rouge est le point d'arriv\u00e9e dans \"Repower EU\" (https://bit.ly/3VUBy3s )\n\nOn voit facilement que la situation que nous allons vivre cette hiver ne devrait pas \u00eatre suivie d'un \"retour \u00e0 la normale\" sur les approvisionnements (et il se discute de savoir ce qu'est \"la normale\" quand la consommation de gaz devrait de toute fa\u00e7on baisser tr\u00e8s rapidement pour des raisons de climat !). \n\nPour remplacer les importations qui n'ont plus lieu par gazoduc il faut recourir au GNL, sur lequel nous sommes en concurrence croissante avec les pays asiatiques, et il n'y en aura pas pour tout le monde. En outre le pic mondial sur la production gazi\u00e8re (sous seule contrainte g\u00e9ologique) est attendu aux alentours de 2030 avec les donn\u00e9es fournies par Rystad. \n\nClimat ou pas, Ukraine ou pas, le coup \u00e9tait aussi parti sur le p\u00e9trole (https://bit.ly/3F7Ty3y ). Rappelons que le charbon est aussi en baisse subie depuis les ann\u00e9es 1950 (car les mines europ\u00e9ennes sont de plus en plus vides et le commerce international de ce pond\u00e9reux solide n'est pas si simple). \n\nQuand bien m\u00eame nous ne voudrions pas faire d'efforts parce que l'UE ce n'est que 10% des \u00e9missions, que les am\u00e9ricains ont une empreinte carbone individuelle 2 fois plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que la n\u00f4tre, etc, nous allons devoir d\u00e9carboner de toute fa\u00e7on. Il est plus qu'urgent de comprendre que nous sommes au d\u00e9but d'une \u00e9volution structurelle, et pas dans un accident de parcours."
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"text": "Alors m\u00eame que l'Etat fran\u00e7ais souhaite acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer sur les \u00e9nergies renouvelables (dont l'\u00e9olien et le solaire pour une large part), le contexte international fait ce qu'il peut pour contrarier ce plan, en rench\u00e9rissant fortement le cout des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res n\u00e9cessaires.\n\nLa raison ? C'est \"l'imbrication des \u00e9nergies\", \u00e9voqu\u00e9e par Jean-Baptiste Fressoz dans cette vid\u00e9o (et dans d'autres) qui date d'il y a quelques mois : https://lnkd.in/eWKNDxK9\n\nAujourd'hui, toutes les \u00e9nergies sont imbriqu\u00e9es les unes dans les autres. Il faut du charbon pour la m\u00e9tallurgie, du p\u00e9trole pour la chimie organique et les transports, et du gaz pour l'industrie et l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, et sans ces \u00e9nergies fossiles l'industrie mondialis\u00e9e est moins disponible, et donc le prix de n'importe quoi augmente... y compris celui des dispositifs de production \u00e0 base de vent et de soleil (et aussi le cout des composants pour le nucl\u00e9aire, bien s\u00fbr !).\n\nLes sc\u00e9narios \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques que nous avons discut\u00e9s ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es ignorent cette \u00e9ventualit\u00e9. Ils supposent que dans un monde se heurtant aux limites physiques nous conservons un cadre tranquille, sans accidents, sans p\u00e9nuries de mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, et sans disruptions des chaines mondialis\u00e9es qui permettent de s'approvisionner en tout et n'importe quoi \u00e0 prix sans cesse en baisse.\n\nIl y a donc une contradiction interne qui commence \u00e0 devenir visible : ces sc\u00e9narios supposent de garder le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice des combustibles fossiles (la formidable \"productivit\u00e9\" de l'\u00e9conomie) tout en se d\u00e9barrassant de ces m\u00eames combustibles. La traduction \u00e9conomique est des prix suppos\u00e9s rester bas pour les dispositifs ENR alors m\u00eame que ces ENR b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient de la productivit\u00e9 fossile.\n\nRTE a annonc\u00e9 publiquement il y a quelques mois avoir mis en chantier une variante de ses sc\u00e9narios appel\u00e9e \"mondialisation contrari\u00e9e\". Il est pertinent de penser les options possibles dans un monde o\u00f9 se procurer tout ce qui est lointain devient de plus en plus difficile, et o\u00f9 la productivit\u00e9 du travail (qui vient avant tout des machines, lesquelles sont avant tout nourries \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie fossile, et qui sont pour une large part situ\u00e9es \u00e0 l'ext\u00e9rieur du pays) est structurellement orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la baisse et non \u00e0 la hausse.\n\nPour d\u00e9sagr\u00e9able que soit peut-\u00eatre un exercice de pens\u00e9e consistant \u00e0 imaginer que tout puisse aller de travers, il correspond \u00e0 une \u00e9volution possible du monde (car gouverner c'est pr\u00e9voir !). Il y a fort \u00e0 parier que dans un tel cadre :\n- aucune option n'apparait comme sans risque (le risque premier \u00e9tant de ne \"pas y arriver\" et donc d'avoir des p\u00e9nuries \u00e9lectriques chroniques, et les impacts sur le fonctionnement du pays qui vont avec)\n- la hi\u00e9rarchie des options sera bien plus diff\u00e9renci\u00e9e que dans le monde \"en croissance verte\" de tous les sc\u00e9narios d\u00e9j\u00e0 publi\u00e9s (y compris ceux de l'Ademe).\n\nNous n'avons qu'un seul essai pour b\u00e2tir le syst\u00e8me \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 de 2100. Se tromper de plan est pour partie non rattrapable."
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"text": "Il aura fallu la menace de d\u00e9lestages en janvier pour que le pays se rappelle que toute notre soci\u00e9t\u00e9 moderne repose sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. De fait, sans \u00e9lectricit\u00e9, comment faire pour passer un coup de fil, accueillir les \u00e9l\u00e8ves \u00e0 l'\u00e9cole, conserver le lait au frais, maintenir une ligne de production, faire un retrait d'argent ou un virement, monter dans l'ascenseur, travailler n'importe o\u00f9 apr\u00e8s la tomb\u00e9e du jour ou dans un local sans fen\u00eatres, faire ses courses dans une grande surface (qui a besoin de lumi\u00e8re car il s'agit g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement d'un local borgne, et besoin de caisses enregistreuses), s'informer, ou faire avancer un train ? Il faut des \u00e9lectrons pour tout et partout aujourd'hui, y compris... pour apprendre qu'il n'y en aura peut-\u00eatre pas demain ! \n\nCe qui se discute actuellement, cependant, n'est pas comparable \u00e0 ce qui se passe dans Ravage de Barjavel (un roman bas\u00e9 sur la disparition instantan\u00e9e de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans une civilisation \"avanc\u00e9e\", avec retour \u00e0 la barbarie) : il est juste question de possibles d\u00e9lestages de 2 heures, avec un seul d\u00e9lestage par client pour l'ensemble de l'hiver.\n\nMais \u00e0 quelque chose malheur est bon : esp\u00e9rons que cet \u00e9pisode, qui nous fait toucher du doigt que le risque d'un d\u00e9faut d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 par manque de moyens de production est possible, va nous inciter (et inciter les politiques) \u00e0 consacrer plus de temps et d'intelligence \u00e0 bien peser les risques dans le choix d'un sc\u00e9nario \u00e9lectrique pour l'avenir. \n\nActuellement, nous voyons un peu la trace des choix faits dans le pass\u00e9 (pas que, il y a aussi le nucl\u00e9aire en r\u00e9paration ou maintenance en France) : capacit\u00e9s nucl\u00e9aires d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment abandonn\u00e9es (Allemagne, en Belgique et en France), moindre disponibilit\u00e9 du gaz qui devait \"assurer la transition\", modes intermittents qui ne sont pas compl\u00e9t\u00e9s par du stockage. \n\nLa cons\u00e9quence est \"juste\" un recours accru au charbon alors que le plan \u00e9tait de s'en passer (les \u00e9missions instantan\u00e9es de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 sont assez \u00e9lev\u00e9es \u00e0 l'heure o\u00f9 je tape ces lignes : https://lnkd.in/eRvA7w-a ), et \u00e9ventuellement un risque de quelques coupures courtes.\n\nMais le syst\u00e8me peut parfaitement devenir bien plus instable. Il suffit pour cela qu'il y ait de moins en moins de gaz \u00e0 l'avenir (rendez vous demain soir pour le savoir ! https://bit.ly/3h23tja ), pas plus de nucl\u00e9aire (ce qui sera le cas pour les 10 \u00e0 15 ans \u00e0 venir), pas beaucoup de capacit\u00e9s de stockage saisonnier (sans lesquels une hausse de l'\u00e9olien et du solaire ne contribuent que tr\u00e8s peu \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement), et pas plus - voire moins - de charbon. \n\nDans nos d\u00e9bats sur l'avenir \u00e9lectrique, nous avons souvent consid\u00e9r\u00e9 que le risque majeur \u00e9tait celui li\u00e9 \u00e0 un mode de production (le nucl\u00e9aire). En fait, il est d'abord de se retrouver avec un syst\u00e8me sur lequel on ne peut plus compter en toutes circonstances. En pareil cas il n'y a plus de sortie facile \u00e0 br\u00e8ve \u00e9ch\u00e9ance."
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"text": "La biomasse est-elle \"neutre en carbone\" ? Dit autrement, lorsque l'on utilise de la biomasse (du bois b\u00fbche, des granul\u00e9s de bois, du biogaz, un \"biocarburant\"), peut-on compter pour z\u00e9ro les \u00e9missions de CO2 issues de la combustion du carbone organique contenu dans les v\u00e9g\u00e9taux utilis\u00e9s ?\n\nOui disent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement les inventaires d'\u00e9mission (dont le bilan carbone). Oui, dit actuellement la r\u00e9glementation europ\u00e9enne ou fran\u00e7aise. Certes il faut compter le carbone fossile utilis\u00e9 pendant le proc\u00e9d\u00e9 de transformation qui va de la plante jusqu'au vecteur \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique qui sera utilis\u00e9 (par exemple pour de l'\u00e9thanol qui remplace de l'essence, il faut compter le carburant et la fabrication du tracteur, la distillation du \"jus\" obtenu apr\u00e8s fermentation des betteraves ou du ma\u00efs, et encore quelques bricoles), mais le carbone qui \u00e9tait contenu dans la plante, non.\n\nCa se discute, explique un \"commentaire\" paru dans Nature (un \"commentaire\" est un article qui ne donne pas lieu \u00e0 un processus de revue par les pairs, la r\u00e9daction de la revue d\u00e9cidant seule si elle le prend ou pas). Car si l'on regarde au plan mondial, il y a de la d\u00e9forestation nette pour obtenir de nouvelles surfaces agricoles.\n\nSi l'Europe rajoute des cultures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques en plus des cultures alimentaires, il faut disposer de plus de surface au total. Soit l'Europe d\u00e9foreste chez elle, soit elle importe directement de la biomasse \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, et alors elle va accro\u00eetre encore plus la d\u00e9forestation \u00e0 l'ext\u00e9rieur, par effet de domino si ce n'est en direct. \n\nSi la population de l'Europe continue d'augmenter un peu, et que les r\u00e9gimes alimentaires ne changent pas, le recours accru \u00e0 la biomasse est donc assur\u00e9 d'engendrer plus de d\u00e9forestation de mani\u00e8re globale. \n\nIncidemment, les auteurs ont postul\u00e9 - de mani\u00e8re surprenante puisque le GIEC souligne abondamment le risque d'un stress accru sur les rendements agricoles - sur une augmentation \u00e0 l'avenir des rendements des cultures. Si l'on enl\u00e8ve cette hypoth\u00e8se optimiste, la conclusion est encore plus nette.\n\nIl y a 20 ans, nous aurions pu choisir d'\u00e9conomiser du gaz et du p\u00e9trole essentiellement par une baisse de la consommation (consommation des v\u00e9hicules neufs baissant bien plus vite, trafic a\u00e9rien limit\u00e9 en volume, r\u00e9novation plus vigoureuse des b\u00e2timents), ce qui aurait permis de diminuer la quantit\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole et de gaz utilis\u00e9s sans avoir besoin de compenser par la biomasse.\n\nEt aujourd'hui ? L'option nucl\u00e9aire en plus comme l'option \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ENR en plus prenant des d\u00e9cennies pour des quantit\u00e9s significatives, et la rotation du parc (de voitures, de b\u00e2timents r\u00e9nov\u00e9s) \u00e9tant lente, si nous voulons faire manger de la biomasse \u00e0 nos voitures et nos b\u00e2timents existants, il faut en manger moins nous-m\u00eames, sauf \u00e0 sacrifier un peu plus la biodiversit\u00e9. Il n'y a qu'un sol !"
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"text": "Aurons nous du gaz cet hiver ? Derri\u00e8re cette question s'en cache une autre, qui est la m\u00eame mais \u00e0 des horizons de temps plus \u00e9loign\u00e9s : aurons nous du gaz les hivers d'apr\u00e8s ? The Shift Project vous propose d'assister, le 6 d\u00e9cembre prochain \u00e0 18h, \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sentation d'un travail qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9 par notre association et qui permet entre autres de disserter sur cette question. \n\nPlus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, nous fournirons notre analyse sur les possibilit\u00e9s \"physiques\" maximales (donc avec pour seules limites les capacit\u00e9s de production contraintes par la seule g\u00e9ologie, et les capacit\u00e9s de transport d\u00e9ployables \u00e0 l'avenir) d'approvisionnement en gaz de l'Union Europ\u00e9enne d'ici \u00e0 2050.\n\nNous avons utilis\u00e9 la m\u00eame m\u00e9thode que celle qui avait \u00e9t\u00e9 suivie pour les perspectives d'approvisionnement en p\u00e9trole dans l'Union Europ\u00e9enne d'ici \u00e0 2050 (https://lnkd.in/dwPcgve ). Nous avions alors eu acc\u00e8s \u00e0 une base de donn\u00e9es (non publique) recensant l'int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 des gisements p\u00e9troliers dans le monde, exploit\u00e9s ou non, incluant les gisements restants \u00e0 d\u00e9couvrir (en volume), et des experts du secteur (mentionn\u00e9s en t\u00eate du rapport) en ont d\u00e9duit, apr\u00e8s analyse, la production maximale possible d'ici \u00e0 2050, sous seule contrainte g\u00e9ologique, des 16 premiers pays fournissant l'Europe (qui sont aussi les 16 premiers producteurs mondiaux, hors Br\u00e9sil et Canada).\n\nNous avons reproduit la m\u00eame d\u00e9marche avec les gisements de gaz. Incidemment ces derniers sont pour partie aussi ceux fournissant du p\u00e9trole, puisqu'une partie du gaz produit dans le monde est issu de gisements mixtes (contenant du p\u00e9trole et du gaz).\n\nCe travail - in\u00e9dit en France dans l'espace public - a fait l'objet d'un financement sp\u00e9cifique de RTE (rappelons que 20% environ de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne \u00e9tait produite avec du gaz en 2021), de la Direction g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des relations internationales et de la strat\u00e9gie (DGRIS) du Minist\u00e8re des Arm\u00e9es, et du BRGM, le service g\u00e9ologique national (https://lnkd.in/etMp4BRp).\n\nC'est donc Mardi prochain que vous pourrez \"venir au r\u00e9sultat\". Sans divulg\u00e2cher le r\u00e9sultat, comme disent nos amis qu\u00e9becois, et sans mauvais jeu de mots, vous d\u00e9couvrirez en quoi, apr\u00e8s le p\u00e9trole (dont le flux entrant en Europe devrait baisser de mani\u00e8re massive d'ici \u00e0 2050 m\u00eame si la question climatique n'est pas g\u00e9r\u00e9e), ca risque aussi d'\u00eatre chaud pour le gaz...\n\nInscription gratuite \u00e0 partir de la page en lien dans l'image. Si vous \u00eates journaliste, une conf\u00e9rence de presse aura lieu le m\u00eame jour \u00e0 9h30 (d\u00e9tails d'inscription sur la m\u00eame page). A vos cols roul\u00e9s ! "
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"text": "\"Ile ne passera pas l'hiver\" : cette vieille maxime rappelle que le froid tue. Il tue en direct car il augmente les risques cardiovasculaires (le froid stresse un peu le syst\u00e8me circulatoire), et en indirect car il favorise la survie des virus pendant leur s\u00e9jour dans l'air, et nous rassemble dans des int\u00e9rieurs peu ventil\u00e9s o\u00f9 la contamination est plus rapide (c'est pour ces deux raisons que les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies de grippe ont lieu l'hiver).\n\nChez les \u00eatres humains, une saison hivernale plus froide tue donc un peu plus (ce n'est pas le cas pour nombre de v\u00e9g\u00e9taux des moyennes latitudes, o\u00f9 un hiver trop doux n'\u00e9limine pas les ravageurs). En Europe, cet effet de surmortalit\u00e9 hivernale est d'autant plus prononc\u00e9 que la temp\u00e9rature moyenne du pays est \u00e9lev\u00e9e. Un hiver \"plus froid que la normale\" fait donc plus de morts au Portugal qu'en Finlande, parce que dans les pays du Nord les infrastructures sont con\u00e7ues \"\u00e0 la base\" pour prot\u00e9ger les gens du froid alors que ce n'est pas autant le cas au sud.\n\nPar ailleurs, quand les prix de l'\u00e9nergie sont \u00e9lev\u00e9s, les gens se chauffent moins, et cela fait des morts en plus. Cet effet avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 constat\u00e9 au Japon suite \u00e0 Fukushima, et avec l'envol\u00e9e des prix du gaz et de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 sur notre continent, il va malheureusement aussi s'appliquer l'hiver prochain (et possiblement les hivers d'apr\u00e8s, car nous n'avons pas fini d'avoir des sujets avec l'approvisionnement en gaz sur notre continent : https://lnkd.in/dmPNvP3V ).\n\nThe Economist a ainsi fait des simulations sur le nombre de morts que la guerre en Ukraine allait provoquer avec cet effet de hausse des prix. La conclusion est que les morts par d\u00e9faut de chauffage seront plus nombreux que ceux directement li\u00e9s au conflit. Mais \u00e9videmment ce ne sont pas les m\u00eames : sans que ce constat ne porte en quoi que ce soit un jugement de valeur, la guerre tue surtout des gens jeunes et \"bien portants\", le froid surtout des gens \u00e2g\u00e9s et/ou d\u00e9j\u00e0 en mauvaise condition sanitaire.\n\nCe serait en Italie que cet effet serait le plus ample, et en France et en Espagne le moins. \n\nCet \u00e9pisode rappelle qu'il y a une diff\u00e9rence importante entre la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 et la pauvret\u00e9 : les deux vont avec une baisse de l'\u00e9nergie utilis\u00e9e parce que nous nous passons de services auparavant utilis\u00e9s (par exemple des m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s chauff\u00e9s), mais dans le premier cas c'est d\u00e9sir\u00e9 et planifi\u00e9 (par exemple on optimise l'occupation des b\u00e2timents existants en diminuant l'\u00e9nergie pour chauffer ou refroidir le parc, mais sans diminuer le confort thermique des occupants), ce qui minimise les cons\u00e9quences d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ables ; dans le second c'est subi alors que nous n'avions rien demand\u00e9, et fatalement ca se passe moins bien."
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"text": "Quand on prononce l'expression \"\u00e9nergie renouvelable\", nombre d'entre nous vont inconsciemment remplacer \"\u00e9nergie\" par \"\u00e9lectricit\u00e9\", et, aid\u00e9s en cela par l'image d'Epinal du panneau solaire et de l'\u00e9olienne, au sein de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 on ne pense pas souvent aux barrages, pourtant la premi\u00e8re source d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 renouvelable dans le monde (16% du total vs environ 7% pour l'\u00e9olien et 4% pour le solaire) et en France.\n\nMais dans l'\u00e9nergie il n'y a pas que l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Carbone 4 vous propose une publication de 50 pages sur la chaleur, et plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment la chaleur renouvelable, qui, de fait, a re\u00e7u consid\u00e9rablement moins d'attention et de moyens de la part de la puissance publique que l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ces derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies, alors que la chaleur est bien plus fossile que l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans notre pays. D'o\u00f9 la question pos\u00e9e dans le titre : n'avons nous pas \"oubli\u00e9\" l'essentiel, sachant que la chaleur c'est 45% des usages \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques finaux en France (l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 c'est environ 20%).\n\nPompes \u00e0 chaleur a\u00e9rothermiques ou g\u00e9othermiques, pour le chauffage (chaleur basse temp\u00e9rature) ou l'industrie (chaleur haute temp\u00e9rature), bois, solaire thermique, biogaz... : l'\u00e9quipe de Carbone 4 a pass\u00e9 en revue les diverses sources \u00e9ligibles, leurs usages possibles, les potentiels, et les couts. \n\nComme dans l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, toutes les sources de chaleur renouvelable ne se valent pas : pas les m\u00eames gisements, pas les m\u00eames efficacit\u00e9s, pas les m\u00eames couts de mise en oeuvre et couts \u00e0 tonne de CO2 \u00e9vit\u00e9e. Comme pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, certaines sources sont b\u00e9n\u00e9fiques pour le CO2 mais pas sans contreparties sur d'autres impacts : c'est notamment le cas pour la biomasse et la biodiversit\u00e9. \n\n2 applications sont largement sous-d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es (au sens premier du terme : pas assez d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es) en France : le solaire thermique et la g\u00e9othermie (incluant les pompes \u00e0 chaleur).\n\nEn conclusion \"La d\u00e9carbonation de la chaleur en France ne suit pas une trajectoire qui permettrait d\u2019atteindre les objectifs fix\u00e9s dans la loi pour respecter une neutralit\u00e9 carbone \u00e0 horizon 2050\". Avant de savoir quoi faire pour que cette conclusion soit un peu moins valable, cette publication vous permet de comprendre de quelle situation nous partons (et en plus c'est gratuit, c'est pas beau \u00e7a ?)"
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"text": "La COP 27 s'est achev\u00e9e il y a peu. Il est trop t\u00f4t pour savoir si cette COP aura contribu\u00e9, comme la COP 26, \u00e0 polariser l'opinion de mani\u00e8re plus prononc\u00e9e qu'avant (un article en libre acc\u00e8s dans Nature montre que la COP 26 a conduit la twittosph\u00e8re \u00e0 se polariser bien plus qu'avant, avec un camp \"d'anti\", largement pioch\u00e9 dans les milieux tr\u00e8s conservateurs, qui monte en puissance : https://lnkd.in/eVRJBvhn ).\n\nPar contre il est toujours temps de faire un bilan de l'\u00e9volution des \u00e9missions depuis la signature de la Convention Climat, au Sommet de la Terre en 1992. C'est en effet dans le cadre de cette Convention que se tiennent des rencontres annuelles depuis 1995, appel\u00e9es COP (Convention Of the Parties), qui donnent lieu \u00e0 de nombreux commentaires sur le fait qu'elles aient \u00e9t\u00e9 un succ\u00e8s ou un \u00e9chec.\n\nLe bilan que je vous propose est tout simplement la variation des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre entre 1992 et 2021 (graphique ci-dessous). Pour chaque gaz, et chaque source principale pour le CO2, j'ai regard\u00e9 de combien avaient vari\u00e9 les \u00e9missions de 1992 quand on les regarde aujourd'hui. Par exemple, les \u00e9missions de CO2 issu du charbon \u00e9taient en 2021 75% plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 qu'en 1992.\n\nPour l'ensemble du CO2 les \u00e9missions ont augment\u00e9 d'environ 60% en 29 ans, et ainsi de suite.\n\nDans l'ensemble des \u00e9nergies fossiles, c'est aujourd'hui le charbon qui engendre les \u00e9missions les plus fortes, mais c'est le gaz qui a connu la plus forte augmentation sur la p\u00e9riode. \n\n\"Lime calcination\" d\u00e9signe en fran\u00e7ais la calcination du calcaire, c'est \u00e0 dire la r\u00e9action qui a lieu dans les fours \u00e0 ciment (chauff\u00e9s \u00e0 plus de 1000 \u00b0C), o\u00f9 la mol\u00e9cule de calcaire - CaCO3 - est d\u00e9compos\u00e9e en chaux vive - CaO - et du CO2, ce dernier partant dans l'air. la chaux vive se combine avec d'autres min\u00e9raux (marne et argile) pour former le clinker qui, broy\u00e9, donnera le composant principal du ciment. Il se produit annuellement environ 4 milliards de tonnes de ciment dans le monde, conduisant \u00e0 l'\u00e9mission d'environ 2,5 milliards de tonnes de CO2.\n\nLe m\u00e9thane a augment\u00e9 de 25% sur la p\u00e9riode et les autres gaz (protoxyde d'azote et gaz halog\u00e9n\u00e9s) d'environ 50% Aucun n'a baiss\u00e9.\n\nEn regardant ce tableau il est \u00e9vident que d'avoir sign\u00e9 la Convention Climat n'a pour l'heure pas suffit \u00e0 inverser la tendance. On peut au moins en d\u00e9duire une conclusion simple : compter essentiellement sur ces r\u00e9unions pour r\u00e9gler le probl\u00e8me \"\u00e0 notre place\" est une illusion. Si nous voulons que les valeurs de ce graphique deviennent n\u00e9gatives (ce qui est l'objectif) il faudra prendre le taureau par les cornes dans chaque pays pris individuellement.\n\nEn Europe, comme de toute fa\u00e7on la d\u00e9crue d'approvisionnement en combustibles fossiles \u00e9tait amorc\u00e9e avant Poutine, la direction n'est pas n\u00e9gociable. Seules les modalit\u00e9s de la p\u00e9dagogie du probl\u00e8me et les modalit\u00e9s de gestion de la baisse le sont.\n\nDonn\u00e9es diverses et compilation de votre serviteur."
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"text": "Un sondage effectu\u00e9 pour Les Echos sur la politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique du gouvernement est publi\u00e9 dans ce journal (\u00e9lectronique ; on devrait plut\u00f4t dire \"publi\u00e9 sur cet \u00e9cran !).\n\nIl fait appara\u00eetre quelques enseignements int\u00e9ressants :\n\n- aucune des questions reproduites dans l'article ne contient les mots \"p\u00e9trole\" ou \"gaz\". Les questions portent quasi-exclusivement sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (un travers classique des d\u00e9bats sur l'\u00e9nergie). Il y a une question sur l'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique qui peut \u00e9ventuellement s'interpr\u00e9ter en pensant p\u00e9trole, mais c'est tout.\n\n- ensuite les r\u00e9ponses sont parfois gentiment contradictoires les unes avec les autres (ce que fait remarquer l'article), parce que la r\u00e9ponse est souvent dans la question avec cette mani\u00e8re de proc\u00e9der. Les anglais posent souvent des questions comportant leurs propres contreparties (par exemple \"sachant que d'avoir au moins y% d'\u00e9olien demandera qu'\u00e0 un moment il y ait une \u00e9olienne de plus de z m de haut \u00e0 moins de x km de chez vous si vous habitez dans une agglom\u00e9ration de moins de N habitants, \u00eates vous favorable \u00e0 ce d\u00e9veloppement ?\" \n\n- nonobstant ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de on d\u00e9couvre (avec \u00e9tonnement pour moi parce que c'est probablement un revirement r\u00e9cent) que la construction de nouvelles centrales nucl\u00e9aires est vue plus favorablement que la construction de nouvelles \u00e9oliennes. \n\n- la strat\u00e9gie du gouvernement est consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme \"pas claire\" sur l'\u00e9nergie (en fait l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, donc). Mais il est impossible de savoir au vu de ce seul sondage si cela r\u00e9sulte du fait que le gouvernement est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme \"pas clair\" quoi qu'il fasse (ce qui est possible voire probable si le pouvoir en place a \u00e9t\u00e9 \"mal \u00e9lu\"), ou bien si l'\u00e9nergie - l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 donc - est \"nettement moins claire\" que le reste. Dans ce dernier cas il y a \u00e0 nouveau deux possibilit\u00e9s : que ce soit le r\u00e9sultat logique de revirements (sur le nucl\u00e9aire par exemple), ou un jugement qui cache en fait le d\u00e9sarroi face \u00e0 la valse actuelle des prix (la question n'est pas pos\u00e9e).\n\nSavoir ce que pensent nos concitoyens est essentiel en d\u00e9mocratie. Mais pour avoir une mati\u00e8re suffisamment d\u00e9taill\u00e9e pour en tirer des conclusions pour l'action (l'action pouvant inclure la p\u00e9dagogie du probl\u00e8me quand il est manifeste que ce dernier n'est pas bien appr\u00e9hend\u00e9), il faut aller au del\u00e0 des questions \"trop simples\" des sondages, qui donnent souvent une information incompl\u00e8te - et parfois incoh\u00e9rente - sur la hi\u00e9rarchie des pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences quand on ne peut pas tout avoir. La premi\u00e8re conclusion que je tire de la lecture des r\u00e9sultats est qu'il faut en savoir plus !\n\nNous n'aurons pas deux essais pour b\u00e2tir un syst\u00e8me d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 et durable au 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle. Pour se donner les meilleures chances d'y parvenir, il faut comprendre \u00e0 la fois les barri\u00e8res physiques et les pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences et barri\u00e8res sociales. Les sondages ne servent \u00e0 rien pour les premi\u00e8res, et pour les secondes il doivent imp\u00e9rativement \u00eatre compl\u00e9t\u00e9s par des analyses plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9es."
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"text": "Il y a fort fort longtemps, la gestion du risque se faisait en ne comptant que sur ses propres forces et une solidarit\u00e9 \"de proximit\u00e9\". Le paysan normand du Moyen Age qui avait de mauvaises r\u00e9coltes ne pouvait gu\u00e8re compter sur le proven\u00e7al ou le lorrain pour le sortir de ce mauvais pas. Le portugais qiu a vu sa maison d\u00e9truire par le s\u00e9isme de Lisbonne en 1755 ne pouvait pas vraiment compter sur le ch'ti ou m\u00eame le basque pour l'aider \u00e0 reconstruire plus vite.\n\nNous vivons aujourd'hui dans un monde o\u00f9 il en va tout autrement. Tout d'abord, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie abondante, la r\u00e9paration apr\u00e8s dommage est bien plus facile. Notre maison est reconstruite par des cimenteries, des camions, des grues et des aci\u00e9ries (donc de l'\u00e9nergie) ; les r\u00e9coltes insuffisantes ici sont compens\u00e9es par des cultures exc\u00e9dentaires \"ailleurs\" qui sont elles-m\u00eames produites et achemin\u00e9es gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des usines d'engrais, tracteurs, camions, entrep\u00f4ts et j'en passe (de l'\u00e9nergie \u00e0 nouveau).\n\nLa mise \u00e0 disposition des victimes des ressources physiques permettent de reconstruire ou compenser est par ailleurs effectu\u00e9e par la mise en commun de moyens \u00e9conomiques, par le biais de l'assurance.\n\nDeux \u00e9volutions vont venir contrarier ce m\u00e9canismes \u00e0 l'avenir :\n\n- le premier, largement \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans cette interview du DG de Groupama dans Les Echos, est l'augmentation des sinistres que l'\u00e9volution climatique va engendrer : r\u00e9coltes plus souvent atteintes, patrimoine b\u00e2ti plus souvent d\u00e9grad\u00e9 (voir \u00e0 ce propos https://bit.ly/3OH6C4f qui rappelle que la s\u00e9cheresse cause d'importants dommages par r\u00e9tractation gonflement des argiles)\n\n- le second, non \u00e9voqu\u00e9, est que notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 reconstruire va s'affaiblir, puisque la d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique va fatalement diminuer aussi la quantit\u00e9 d'acier, de ciment, de camions et de grues dont nous pourrons disposer.\n\nLa traduction \u00e9conomique de cette double \u00e9volution n'est pas difficile \u00e0 deviner, et c'est exactement celle \u00e9voqu\u00e9e dans cette interview : des primes plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es (il va donc y avoir aussi de l'inflation \"r\u00e9elle\" - rapport\u00e9e au revenu en clair - dans l'assurance, comme en fait partout d\u00e8s lors que les ressources physiques baissent ; c'est m\u00e9canique) et des dommages moins bien couverts (l'interview\u00e9 parle d'exclusion croissante de certains biens de l'assurance dommage des habitations par exemple).\n\nDans un monde structurellement inflationniste par rapport aux revenus r\u00e9els, nous allons devoir renoncer. Il est probablement plus facile de renoncer \u00e0 la 5G pour regarder Netflix dans le m\u00e9tro, \u00e0 la construction de stades climatis\u00e9s pour jouer au foot, ou au Black Friday pour avoir un v\u00eatement en plus, que de renoncer \u00e0 garder un toit en cas de coup dur ou avoir de quoi manger si le climat est adverse.\n\nEn tout \u00e9tat de cause, cette interview rappelle - m\u00eame si ce n'est pas sympathique - qu'\u00e0 ne vouloir rien abandonner nous prenons le risque de perdre beaucoup plus."
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"text": "Le \"Vendredi noir\" commence demain (et est devenu un week-end noir en pratique, m\u00eame s'il n'est pas question d'accidents de la route). Cette f\u00eate commerciale venue tout droit des USA apr\u00e8s Halloween (\"where else\" pourrait demander un acteur c\u00e9l\u00e8bre) est une incitation de plus \u00e0 se ruer dans les magasins puis sur son compte en banque pour acheter \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 prix des choses sans lesquelles nous allons n\u00e9cessairement nous trouver tr\u00e8s mal.\n\nCette journ\u00e9e de promotion augmente de mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s forte les ventes en ligne, qui elles-m\u00eames augmentent de mani\u00e8re forte le fret a\u00e9rien - le plus polluant de tous - ainsi que la livraison du dernier kilom\u00e8tre, bien plus souvent faite en camionnette qu'en v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique.\n\nC'est une des cons\u00e9quences du fait que les objets promus sont rarement fabriqu\u00e9s en France, qu'il s'agisse d'\u00e9lectrom\u00e9nager, de v\u00eatements, ou encore d'\u00e9lectronique. Sur ce dernier poste, du reste, cette journ\u00e9e vient se combiner avec la coupe du monde, qui, dans le pass\u00e9, a \u00e9t\u00e9 un gros acc\u00e9l\u00e9rateur de la vente de t\u00e9l\u00e9visions \u00e0 grand \u00e9cran (pour mieux voir les matchs), des objets eux-m\u00eames tr\u00e8s \u00e9nergivores \u00e0 la fabrication. \n\nUn petit clic sur un site de vente en ligne sera donc une petite claque pour le climat, puisque les objets command\u00e9s n'arrivent pas par pigeon voyageur, ne sont pas fabriqu\u00e9s uniquement en rotin dans le village d'\u00e0-cot\u00e9, et poussent \u00e0 la hausse la fabrication d'emballages... et les d\u00e9chets qui vont avec.\n\nUne autre cons\u00e9quence de la fabrication \"lointaine\" des objets sur lesquels nous allons nous ruer est que leur consommation accrue d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre la balance commerciale (puisque quasiment tout est import\u00e9). \n\nCette incitation \u00e0 faire un peu plus les cigales ne va donc pas vraiment dans la bonne direction c\u00f4t\u00e9 climat, comme le rappelle cet article publi\u00e9 sur le site de Carbone 4, et n'est pas vraiment raccord avec la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 tant vant\u00e9e par le gouvernement (mais nous ne sommes pas \u00e0 une contradiction pr\u00e8s). \n\nPlut\u00f4t que de singer les am\u00e9ricains, nous devrions faire un Vendredi vert, avec des promotions sur les v\u00e9los (qu'il faut fabriquer plus en France, composants inclus), les isolants pour les murs, les pompes \u00e0 chaleur et la reprise des cols de chemise \u00e9lim\u00e9s !"
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"text": "Si dans une interview vous lisez les propos suivants :\n- qu'il faut faire passer la d\u00e9carbonation avant la croissance en volume dans l'a\u00e9rien\n- qu'il est d\u00e9raisonnable de multiplier les vols long-courriers pour un week-end ou quelques jours de vacances\n- que si les gens ne sont pas raisonnables il finira par y avoir des quotas de vols par an et par personne\n\n\u00e0 qui aurez vous envie de les attribuer ? \n\nUne premi\u00e8re r\u00e9ponse \"intuitive\" ne sera probablement pas l'auteur effectif de ces propos, \u00e0 savoir... le patron d'A\u00e9roports de Paris. Et pourtant c'est tr\u00e8s exactement ce qui est contenu dans cette interview parue dans Les Echos.\n\nCertes l'auteur des propos ajoute qu'il n'est pas favorable \u00e0 de tels quotas, et qu'il ne souhaite pas que l'on prive les fran\u00e7ais de la possibilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9couvrir le monde gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l'avion. Mais il n'emp\u00eache : cet appel \u00e0 la mod\u00e9ration est une premi\u00e8re dans le secteur a\u00e9rien en France, o\u00f9 la r\u00e8gle jusqu'\u00e0 maintenant \u00e9tait plut\u00f4t que la technique allait se charger de r\u00e9gler la question carbonique pendant que le trafic poursuivrait sa croissance, et qu'il \u00e9tait hors de question d'entraver cette derni\u00e8re volontairement.\n\nLa situation actuelle n'est pourtant pas durable. L'aviation consommait environ 8% du p\u00e9trole mondial avant covid. Si on transformait en agrocarburants la totalit\u00e9 des 4 premi\u00e8res cultures mondiales (bl\u00e9 - ma\u00efs - riz - soja) cela ferait \"juste\" 25% du p\u00e9trole mondial : il est d\u00e8s lors difficile d'imaginer que l'on va massivement se priver de cultures v\u00e9g\u00e9tales (au surplus dans un monde o\u00f9 les rendements vont \u00eatre attaqu\u00e9s par le r\u00e9chauffement climatique) pour avoir simplement le plaisir de passer d'un continent \u00e0 l'autre pour aller \u00e0 l'h\u00f4tel. \n\nCertes si on d\u00e9vie massivement des cultures pour alimenter des avions plut\u00f4t que des estomacs ce ne seront pas les m\u00eames qui profiteront des voyages et qui auront faim, mais quand m\u00eame.\n\nSi l'on parle d'hydrog\u00e8ne, pour servir en carburant les avions d\u00e9collant de France il faudrait y consacrer un petit quart de la production \u00e9lectrique fran\u00e7aise : l\u00e0 aussi je pense que toute personne un peu sens\u00e9e ne prendra pas le pari sur ses propres \u00e9conomies que l'on va y arriver bient\u00f4t.\n\nDonc oui, dans un monde sans carbone et donc sans p\u00e9trole il y aura beaucoup moins d'avions qu'aujourd'hui. Se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 la d\u00e9crue dans ce domaine n'est surement pas l'option la plus confortable intellectuellement \u00e0 court terme, mais \u00e0 un horizon plus lointain c'est n\u00e9anmoins la meilleure. "
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"text": "A l'occasion d'un p\u00e9riple en Belgique organis\u00e9 par Les Shifters (belges !), l'Echo a publi\u00e9 une interview de votre serviteur. COP 27, hydrog\u00e8ne, sobri\u00e9t\u00e9, nucl\u00e9aire, d\u00e9croissance, taxe carbone et capitalisme (entre autres) ont fait l'objet du classique jeu de questions-r\u00e9ponses. Je profite de l'occasion pour rappeler quelques pr\u00e9cautions d'emploi en pareil cas.\n\nApr\u00e8s une interview (que je ne sollicite jamais, pas plus qu'un portrait, exercice que je trouve plein d'effets pervers), le texte publi\u00e9 est r\u00e9dig\u00e9 par le/la journaliste que j'ai rencontr\u00e9(e), et non par bibi. M\u00eame si je demande toujours \u00e0 me relire, le r\u00e9sultat n'est jamais ce que j'aurais \u00e9crit si j'avais r\u00e9dig\u00e9 les r\u00e9ponses en partant de z\u00e9ro.\n\nEn particulier, mon style oral et mon style \u00e9crit sont diff\u00e9rents. A l'oral, l'intonation, l'expression faciale ou le contexte autorisent des tournures qui ne prennent pas la m\u00eame signification \u00e0 l'\u00e9crit, sans ces \"\u00e0-c\u00f4t\u00e9s\". La seule mani\u00e8re d'\u00e9viter les malentendus est d'utiliser un style adapt\u00e9 \u00e0 chaque cas.\n\nPourtant, les transcriptions \u00e9crites reprennent souvent une partie des verbatim de l'interview. Cela peut donner une impression injustifi\u00e9e de radicalit\u00e9 qui n'aurait pas exist\u00e9 en style \u00e9crit utilis\u00e9 d'embl\u00e9e.\n\nUne autre pr\u00e9caution d'usage concerne le chap\u00f4 qui pr\u00e9sente l'interview\u00e9(e) : il est fait par la r\u00e9daction du journal, sans relecture, et n'engage pas la personne concern\u00e9e. C'est aussi le cas pour tout \"portrait\" publi\u00e9 dans la presse.\n\nIncidemment, \"ma\" page Wikipedia est un portrait parmi d'autres, essentiellement bas\u00e9 sur des portraits ou avis de journalistes rapportant des avis de tiers (il suffit de regarder les r\u00e9f\u00e9rences), soit de l'information de 3\u00e8 main ou plus. Je n'en ai pas \u00e9crit une ligne, et elle comporte plusieurs dizaines d'erreurs factuelles ou de conclusions erron\u00e9es.\n\nL'Echo a repris l'expression \"rock star de l'\u00e9cologie\" utilis\u00e9e r\u00e9cemment par Le Monde. S'exprimer parfois dans des amphis bien remplis n'est pas vraiment comparable \u00e0 remplir le Stade de France ! M\u00eame avec l'audience digitale, le compte n'y est pas : sur Youtube \"ma\" vid\u00e9o la plus regard\u00e9e d\u00e9passe 3 millions de vues ; pour Rihanna ou DJ Khaled on d\u00e9passe le milliard de vues (https://bit.ly/3Ep4nhb ).\n\nEnfin l'expression servant de titre correspond toujours \u00e0 un sujet \u00e9voqu\u00e9, mais pas n\u00e9cessairement celui sur lequel j'ai le plus insist\u00e9, alors que c'est l'impression que cela donne. Cet effet s'amplifie si d'autres journalistes reprennent cette expression comme si elle \u00e9tait de moi mot \u00e0 mot : ce qui \u00e9tait une mise en exergue d'un(e) journaliste devient ce qui fait foi !\n\nTout ca pour dire que, pour moi comme pour n'importe qui, la seule chose qui m'engage est ce que j'\u00e9cris en direct, ou prononce \u00e0 l'oral dans un enregistrement non mont\u00e9. Tout le reste incorpore peu ou prou l'avis de quelqu'un d'autre, m\u00eame une interview. Dans le cas pr\u00e9sent on est dans la nuance, mais dans un portrait il peut y avoir des erreurs grossi\u00e8res."
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"text": "Que penser de la COP 27, qui se termine (normalement) aujourd'hui en Egypte ? Rien de plus et rien de moins que ce qu'il faut penser des autres COP, ai-je tent\u00e9 d'expliquer aujourd'hui aux auditrices et auditeurs (matinaux !) de RTL : le processus onusien conduira par nature \u00e0 aboutir \u00e0 un texte qui ne peut pas juridiquement contraindre quelque pays que ce soit \u00e0 faire plus que ce qu'il d\u00e9sire d\u00e9j\u00e0 faire.\n\nRappelons que, depuis le Trait\u00e9 de Westphalie, les \u00e9tats sont souverains : un \u00e9tat ne peut imposer \u00e0 un autre ses r\u00e8gles par le droit. Le processus onusien en prend acte, et demande \u00e0 ce que les d\u00e9cisions soient prises \u00e0 l'unanimit\u00e9 et par consensus. Une telle dynamique conduit n\u00e9cessairement \u00e0 un texte qui ne cr\u00e9e aucune obligation nouvelle significative pour les pays.\n\nIl y a eu une exception dans l'histoire des COP, que je rappelle dans cette chronique, et qui a pourtant correspondu \u00e0 l'ann\u00e9e o\u00f9 la presse a conclu le plus rapidement que cela avait \u00e9t\u00e9 un \u00e9chec : Copenhague (la COP 15, en 2009). \n\nLes \"moins de 2\u00b0C\" d\u00e9sormais associ\u00e9s \u00e0 l'Accord de Paris datent en effet... de Copenhague, comme toutes les autres dispositions fortes qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 avalis\u00e9es \u00e0 Paris. Et ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments ont pu \u00eatre act\u00e9s parce que Copenhague a \u00e9t\u00e9, de fa\u00e7on impr\u00e9vue, la seule COP qui ait \u00e9t\u00e9 une OPA du G20 sur les Nations Unies. \n\nAu retour de la COP - o\u00f9 j'avais \u00e9t\u00e9 les 15 jours - j'avais pris la plume pour expliquer pourquoi elle \u00e9tait en fait l'un des rares succ\u00e8s des discussions internationales : https://bit.ly/3GuuPIT Ce mot d'\u00e9chec est arriv\u00e9 parce que c'est le processus et non le fond qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 comment\u00e9 par les ONG, les seules \u00e0 pouvoir s'exprimer dans la presse \u00e0 l'approche de la fin de la COP, alors que les d\u00e9l\u00e9gations nationales \u00e9taient tenues au silence devant la r\u00e9union des pr\u00e9sidents en cours.\n\nComme les danois avaient fait une erreur logistique en ne pr\u00e9voyant pas assez de place pour laisser rentrer tout le monde la 2\u00e8 semaine (alors que les d\u00e9l\u00e9gations pr\u00e9sidentielles \u00e9taient arriv\u00e9s en masse), les repr\u00e9sentants des ONG \u00e9taient pass\u00e9s de 5000 \u00e0... 90, et ceux toujours admis \u00e0 rentrer dans l'enceinte de la COP \u00e9taient du coup tr\u00e8s \u00e9nerv\u00e9s par ce qu'elles consid\u00e9raient \u00eatre une entorse majeure au principe de transparence des n\u00e9gociations. \n\nSi on y ajoute la forme de la discussion (exit les d\u00e9l\u00e9gations nationales, remplac\u00e9es au pied lev\u00e9 par des pr\u00e9sidents discutant en direct dans une salle), cette fin de COP n'avait plus rien d'onusien, et c'est cela qui a conduit les ONG \u00e0 parler d'\u00e9chec \u00e0 la presse, constat discutable mais devenu depuis l'\u00e9vidence pour le public. \n\nC'est pourtant \u00e0 cet \"\u00e9chec\" que l'on doit l'objectif politique des 2\u00b0C, d\u00e9sormais si pr\u00e9cieux pour cadrer toute l'action - m\u00eame insuffisante - des entreprises et des \u00e9tats dans les d\u00e9bats domestiques. \n\nSi, du point de vue du formalisme onusien, elle est un succ\u00e8s, la COP 27 ne changera pas plus le cours des choses \"\u00e0 notre place\" que les autres. Quoi qu'en dise la presse..."
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"text": "Vive la croissance verte ! Vous savez, celle qui ne suppose pas de consommer plus de ressources, et qui va donc permettre de marier PIB en hausse et flux physiques en baisse.\n\nSauf que... cette croissance l\u00e0, \u00e0 supposer qu'elle arrive, ne permet pas d'avoir la constance en volume des objets parfaitement mat\u00e9riels que les fran\u00e7aises et les fran\u00e7ais ach\u00e8tent. Et il se trouve que, pour le moment, et probablement pour un certain temps encore, les brosses \u00e0 dents, machines \u00e0 laver, m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s de moquette, pantalons, produits alimentaires, m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s de logement, tonnes de voitures, sans oublier les m\u00e8tres cubes de gaz ou d'eau qui entrent dans un logement sont parfaitement mat\u00e9riels.\n\nSi les flux physiques de production baissent parce que la quantit\u00e9 d'\u00e9nergie disponible - et donc la quantit\u00e9 de machines au travail - baisse, peu importe la fa\u00e7on dont les choses se passeront sur le plan des prix : de fait il sera plus difficile \u00e0 la population de ce procurer tout ce qui est \"physique\", du tube de colle aux kilom\u00e8tres en voiture, en passant par les t\u00e9l\u00e9phones, les cartables et les p\u00e2tes \u00e0 la tomate.\n\nOr, l'\u00e9nergie disponible baisse en Europe depuis 2007. Donc la production domestique de ce qui est \"physique\" y baisse (la confirmation se trouve dans les s\u00e9ries longues des tonnes charg\u00e9es dans les camions et des m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s construits en Europe). On peut temporairement compenser par des importations pay\u00e9es par des revenus \"autres\" (activit\u00e9s financi\u00e8res et b\u00e9n\u00e9fices rapatri\u00e9s, par exemple), mais cette mani\u00e8re de proc\u00e9der a ses limites.\n\nIl se trouve que cette baisse de la possibilit\u00e9 d'acheter se traduit d\u00e9j\u00e0 de fa\u00e7on mon\u00e9taire. Le revenu disponible des m\u00e9nages est en effet pass\u00e9 par un maximum en 2010 et a fortement baiss\u00e9 ensuite, avant de remonter \u00e0 partir de 2014 (quand l'\u00e9nergie disponible en Europe est remont\u00e9e gr\u00e2ce au shale oil !), sans pour autant revenir au niveau ant\u00e9rieur. \n\nEt surtout la logique voudrait malheureusement que cet indicateur reparte \u00e0 la baisse, dans le droit fil de l'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9en qui va faire de m\u00eame (NB: la s\u00e9rie de l'INSEE que j'ai obtenue sur https://bit.ly/3UR7BRR s'arr\u00eate en 2019).\n\nL'article des Echos qui annonce la cr\u00e9ation par Carrefour d'une nouvelle enseigne ciblant les faibles revenus ouvre probablement une nouvelle \u00e8re : celle de l'\u00e9conomie... des \u00e9conomies. L'auteur rappelle \u00e0 juste titre que l'on peut mettre dans le m\u00eame panier que cette nouvelle enseigne Blablacar, AirBnb, la colocation, les bus Macron et Too Good to Go : \u00e0 chaque fois c'est une r\u00e9ponse pour conserver des services dans un monde avec mat\u00e9riellement moins. \n\nFaut-il se plaindre d'avoir moins de r\u00e9f\u00e9rences et moins d'emballages dans les magasins ? Faut-il appeler cela d\u00e9classement (donc pauvret\u00e9), comme le font Les Echos, ou sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 ? Tant que nous vivrons dans une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de la tentation, c'est probablement la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9ponse qui sera la bonne, h\u00e9las. Il reste \u00e0 inventer le r\u00e9cit pour passer \u00e0 la seconde."
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"text": "Comment apprendre aux \u00e9l\u00e8ves des \u00e9coles de gestion \u00e0 faire un business plan compatible accord de Paris ? Du marketing ou de la publicit\u00e9 compatible avec les limites plan\u00e9taires ? Du management \"bas carbone\" ?\n\nApr\u00e8s avoir travaill\u00e9 sur la mise en harmonie de l'enseignement dans les \u00e9coles d'ing\u00e9nieur avec la n\u00e9cessaire d\u00e9carbonation (sous contrainte d'autres ressources) de l'\u00e9conomie, The Shift Project r\u00e9cidive (si l'on peut dire) avec les \u00e9coles de gestion (en attendant de compl\u00e9ter la trilogie dans pas longtemps avec l'enseignement de la finance).\n\nLe travail effectu\u00e9 par notre think tank a consist\u00e9 \u00e0 cr\u00e9er une \"m\u00e9thode op\u00e9rationnelle\" pour aider un \u00e9tablissement d'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur en gestion \u00e0 proposer un enseignement compatible avec les d\u00e9fis de demain et non avec ceux d'hier.\n\nUne fois cela dit, un certain nombre de probl\u00e8mes pratiques se posent pour passer \u00e0 l'action :\n- comment r\u00e9viser les programmes ? Faut-il proposer la m\u00eame chose qu'actuellement avec en plus un peu de RSE ou de physique, ou bien il faut revoir tout l'enseignement, y compris faire un tri s\u00e9v\u00e8re dans ce qui existe ?\n- Aura-t-on besoin des m\u00eames enseignants qu\u2019il faudra juste former \u00e0 de nouvelles approches, ou bien l\u2019angle sera tellement diff\u00e9rent que le corps enseignant apte \u00e0 officier dans ce nouveau contexte viendra surtout de l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur ?\n-\u00a0Faut-il s\u00e9lectionner les \u00e9l\u00e8ves sur des bases diff\u00e9rentes ?\n- Faut-il changer les syst\u00e8mes de classement des \u00e9tablissements, pour que le salaire \u00e0 la sortie ne soit plus le principal crit\u00e8re prix en compte ? \n- Pour une \u00e9cole qui voudrait \"faire sa r\u00e9volution\", comment cesser de servir un syst\u00e8me que l\u2019on sait aller dans le mur sans aller dans le mur soi-m\u00eame parce que l\u2019on est sorti du jeu ?\n- Faut-il \u00e9couter les recruteurs, qui sont par nature l\u2019incarnation de l\u2019existant dont il faut se d\u00e9partir, ou \u00e9couter des \u00e9l\u00e8ves, qui peuvent avoir des aspirations qui ne correspondent pas (encore) \u00e0 des emplois existants ?\n\nLe rapport du Shift Project ne fournira pas de r\u00e9ponse exhaustive \u00e0 toutes ces questions, et \u00e0 toutes les autres qui viennent \u00e0 l'esprit, mais il devrait n\u00e9anmoins int\u00e9resser toute personne qui partagerait nos souhaits de voir cet enseignement sup\u00e9rieur \"shifter\" un peu plus rapidement que maintenant. \n\nCar si nous prenons l'accord de Paris au pied de la lettre - et ne pas le faire en pleine COP est os\u00e9 :) - il reste 30 ans pour amener les \u00e9missions \u00e0 z\u00e9ro. Les cadres arrivant aujourd'hui sur le march\u00e9 du travail devraient donc d\u00e9j\u00e0 avoir les r\u00e9flexes adapt\u00e9s \u00e0 un monde o\u00f9 l'\u00e9nergie facile va se contracter, ce qui est l'\u00e9volution inverse de celle qui a men\u00e9 \u00e0 la mondialisation dont les anciens des \u00e9coles de gestion sont les b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires directs. \n\nNB : Si par chance vous \u00eates disponible dans 45 minutes (!) la pr\u00e9sentation du rapport aura lieu \u00e0 Audencia (\u00e0 Nantes) et en visio sur la page https://lnkd.in/eaSz8idj (il y aura un replay sinon)."
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"text": "Dans le chapitre \"industrie\" du Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf), nous avions fait le constat que les 3/4 des \u00e9missions directes (donc hors \u00e9missions associ\u00e9es \u00e0 la consommation \u00e9lectrique du secteur, et bien \u00e9videmment hors \u00e9missions du \"scope 3\") du secteur industriel en France viennent de 3 activit\u00e9s qui repr\u00e9sentent chacune environ un quart du total du secteur :\n- l'aci\u00e9rie\n- la cimenterie et activit\u00e9s connexes (production de chaux par exemple, mais le ciment domine de la t\u00eate et des \u00e9paules)\n- la chimie de base (production des monom\u00e8res, de la soude et du chlore, de l'hydrog\u00e8ne, etc).\n\nNos propositions permettaient de viser, pour ces secteurs, une division par 5 \u00e0 10 des \u00e9missions \u00e0 l'horizon 2050 - ce n'est pas encore la neutralit\u00e9 mais on s'en rapproche - en combinant sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 - il y a une baisse des volumes - et avanc\u00e9es techniques (par exemple la r\u00e9duction directe \u00e0 l'hydrog\u00e8ne dans la m\u00e9tallurgie ou un m\u00e9lange de capture et s\u00e9questration du carbone et de combustibles non fossiles dans la cimenterie).\n\nJe ne sais pas si l'Elys\u00e9e a lu le PTEF, mais l'\u00e9v\u00e9nement rapport\u00e9 par Les Echos s'inscrit dans la m\u00eame logique : porter une attention particuli\u00e8re aux sites fortement \u00e9missifs, o\u00f9 la d\u00e9carbonation va souvent avec des investissements lourds qu'il faut donc pouvoir \"s\u00e9curiser\".\n\n\"s\u00e9curiser\" signifie en pratique que, sur leur dur\u00e9e de vie, ces investissements vont \u00e9viter plus de couts qu'ils n'en engendreront. La logique est que, comme les sites gros \u00e9metteurs sont soumis aux quotas, et que ces derniers sont d\u00e9sormais payants, tout le CO2 non \u00e9mis peut se convertir en quotas non achet\u00e9s, et cet argent peut \u00eatre mis en face de l'amortissement de l'investissement r\u00e9alis\u00e9.\n\nPour que le syst\u00e8me fonctionne bien, il y a un point que cet article n'\u00e9voque pas : la garantie d'un prix \u00e9lev\u00e9 et stable du CO2 \u00e0 l'avenir. Le march\u00e9 ne peut pas garantir cela. Il faut donc que la puissance publique s'en m\u00eale, or pour le moment la Commission (car cela d\u00e9pend d'elle) est r\u00e9tive \u00e0 l'id\u00e9e de mettre un prix plancher aux quotas mis aux ench\u00e8res.\n\nLe deuxi\u00e8me point qui n'est pas \u00e9voqu\u00e9 est la protection aux fronti\u00e8res : si les couts de production domestiques qui n'engendrent que peu de CO2 sont sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 ceux des concurrents \u00e9trangers qui \u00e9mettent plus, il faut pouvoir compenser la diff\u00e9rence aux fronti\u00e8res (comme pour la TVA). \n\nDans les commodit\u00e9s certaines voyagent peu en pratique (le ciment), mais d'autres beaucoup plus (acier ou polym\u00e8res). Si l'Etat veut que les industriels avancent - et il a raison de le vouloir - il faut qu'il fasse sa part dans la planification, en s'occupant des deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments \u00e9voqu\u00e9s plus haut. Une troisi\u00e8me alternative est qu'il prenne \u00e0 sa charge les investissements des industriels, en allant \u00e9ventuellement jusqu'\u00e0 une nationalisation ou une cogestion - une \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 aujourd'hui tr\u00e8s peu compatible avec l'orientation \u00e9conomique lib\u00e9rale, mais l'histoire n'a pas fini d'\u00eatre \u00e9crite !"
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"text": "Dans un entretien au T\u00e9l\u00e9gramme (qui \u00e0 une \u00e9poque fut \"de Brest\"), Lionel Alletto \u00e9voque les modifications des pratiques agricoles qu'il serait pertinent de mettre en oeuvre pour gagner en r\u00e9silience et diminuer la pression sur l'environnement (NB : je soup\u00e7onne la transcription de l'interview de comporter quelques erreurs ici ou l\u00e0, qui conduisent certaines phrases \u00e0 \u00eatre \u00e9tranges ou en d\u00e9calage).\n\nQuelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments int\u00e9ressants de cette interview :\n- les techniques sans labour semblent am\u00e9liorer la r\u00e9sistance \u00e0 la s\u00e9cheresse (un avantage qui pourrait ne pas \u00eatre mince avec ce qui nous attend)\n- la diversification des cultures - dont la polyculture \u00e9levage - permet de diminuer l'usage des phytosanitaires\n- le seul phytosanitaire vraiment utile en agriculture de conservation c'est... le glyphosate (tous les \u00e9chos que j'ai eus laissent penser que ce n'est pas celui dont l'interdiction est la plus prioritaire...)\n- en \"p\u00e9riode de temps calme\" sur le prix de l'\u00e9nergie, l'agriculture de conservation ne change pas la donne sur le plan \u00e9conomique (donc elle ne rapporte rien de plus... mais ne coute pas plus non plus), mais quand les prix des hydrocarbures grimpent au plafond elle donne un avantage\n\nJ'avais retenu par ailleurs que d'avoir un couvert v\u00e9g\u00e9tal sur l'ensemble de l'ann\u00e9e favorise la s\u00e9questration de carbone dans le sol. \n\n\"sur le papier\", dixit l'urbain que je suis qui ne tient pas souvent une fourche ou une b\u00eache :), cette technique semble donc \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9raliser. Que manque-t-il pour que cela soit le cas ? La liste des \"conditions du succ\u00e8s\" n'est pas tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rente ici de ce qu'elle est pour tout passage \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle d'une mani\u00e8re de faire pour laquelle des pionniers montrent que globalement ca fonctionne :\n- une valorisation \"culturelle\" d'un changement de pratique dans un monde o\u00f9 c'est plut\u00f4t l'inverse qui est la r\u00e8gle. Les terroirs, AOC, etc, valorisent le fait de \"faire toujours pareil\", et l\u00e0 il s'agit de valoriser l'inverse !\n- du coup il faut un accompagnement et de la formation, \u00e0 la fois par la recherche (c'est donc une tr\u00e8s bonne chose que l'INRAE s'en m\u00eale) et par les entit\u00e9s d\u00e9volues \u00e0 cet effet (chambres d'agriculture et conseil interne des coop\u00e9ratives notamment)\n- il faut aussi que les r\u00e8gles \u00e9conomiques ne dissuadent pas explicitement les modifications de pratiques, voire les encouragent (il n'y a pas que les prix de vente pour cela : l'Etat, comme il l'a fait pour le covid, pourrait reprendre de la dette d'agriculteurs qui accepteraient de changer de pratiques, par exemple). Or le premier souci des r\u00e8gles \u00e9conomiques aujourd'hui n'est pas d'assurer la \"durabilit\u00e9 physique\" !\n\nTout est r\u00e9sum\u00e9 dans cette phrase de l'interview : \"Les syst\u00e8mes [agricoles]\u00a0doivent (...) gagner en r\u00e9silience et (...) \u00eatre moins d\u00e9pendants des ressources externes, \u00eatre plus diversifi\u00e9s pour faire face aux al\u00e9as, maximiser les services \u00e9cosyst\u00e9miques\". Il n'y a plus qu'\u00e0 :)"
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"text": "Aujourd'hui commence la COP 27 \u00e0 Charm el-Cheikh, au bord de la Mer Rouge. Esp\u00e9rons que la proximit\u00e9 d'un d\u00e9sert et les 28 \u00e0 30 \u00b0C en novembre (https://bbc.in/3FNxQ6R ) permettront aux participant(e)s de se sentir plus concern\u00e9s que quand tout le monde est en doudoune !\n\nIl y sera question d'agir pour limiter le r\u00e9chauffement. Or, c'est physique, cela signifie se contraindre sur les \u00e9missions. De combien ? Cela d\u00e9pend de l'objectif !\n\nLe graphique ci-dessous donne les trajectoires d'\u00e9missions qui vont avec des r\u00e9chauffements donn\u00e9s en 2100. Tout en bas, le trait bleu ciel correspond \u00e0 1,5 \u00b0C et, et tout en haut la rouge fonc\u00e9e du haut \u00e0 4,5 \u00b0C. On trouvera en commentaire le graphique des \u00e9l\u00e9vations de temp\u00e9rature fait avec le m\u00eame code couleur.\n\nPour 1,5\u00b0C en 2100 on voit que les \u00e9missions doivent \u00eatre nulles en 2060, puis \"n\u00e9gatives\" : cela signifie que la totalit\u00e9 de l'\u00e9nergie utilis\u00e9e se d\u00e9carbone en 40 ans, et ensuite on arrive \u00e0 reprendre du CO2 depuis l'air via des pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9s technologiques d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle. Pour \"moins de 2\u00b0C en 2100\" c'est pareil mais d\u00e9cal\u00e9 de 20 ans.\n\nAvec des \u00e9missions qui seraient surtout contraintes \u00e0 l'avenir par la disponibilit\u00e9 en \u00e9nergie fossile (pic p\u00e9trolier maintenant, pic gazier en 2030, pic charbonnier d'ici 2050) on est un peu en dessous de 3\u00b0C en 2100 (courbe orange).\n\nEnfin les deux courbes du haut signifient une \"\u00e9conomie fossile\" non limit\u00e9e - ni par l'\u00e9puisement des gisements d'hydrocarbures, ni par les cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique, ni par d'autres limites plan\u00e9taires - jusqu'en 2100.\n\nQuelques commentaires :\n\n- m\u00eame en diminuant les \u00e9missions mondiales de 7% par an d\u00e8s demain matin, la temp\u00e9rature continue d'augmenter d'environ 0,2 \u00b0C par d\u00e9cennie pour les 20 ans qui viennent. Cela est du \u00e0 l'inertie chimique du CO2 : tant que les \u00e9missions ne sont pas nulles la concentration de ce gaz dans l'air - et \u00e0 la suite la temp\u00e9rature - augmente.\n\n- comme je ne crois pas que l'on puisse compter sur la reprise du CO2 de l'atmosph\u00e8re \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle imagin\u00e9e pour les sc\u00e9narios 1,5 \u00b0C et 2\u00b0C, sauf pand\u00e9mie ou chute de com\u00e8te on va se prendre 1,5\u00b0C de toute fa\u00e7on, et c'est presque pareil pour 2\u00b0C -> il faut penser massivement r\u00e9silience (et non juste \"adaptation\", terme qui suppose une absence d'inconv\u00e9nient si on s'y prend bien) d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent\n\n- baisser les \u00e9missions de 5% par an c'est tr\u00e8s probablement baisser le PIB de 3 \u00e0 4% par an (https://bit.ly/3T2QevC ). J'ai quelques doutes sur le fait que ca puisse \u00eatre un objectif consensuel dans l'enceinte des Nations Unies (o\u00f9 tout se d\u00e9cide par consensus).\n\nCOP 27 ou pas, en Europe, la \"voiture balai\" de la baisse subie des combustibles fossiles est d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours (et l'\u00e9tait avant Poutine !). Ca ne va pas arr\u00eater la d\u00e9rive climatique, mais ca nous force d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 conjuguer d\u00e9crue des moyens mat\u00e9riels \u00e0 notre disposition et accroissement des dommages climatiques. Il serait temps de se creuser la cervelle pour l'avenir avec le bon cahier des charges. "
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"text": "\"Un monde \u00e0 4\u00b0C n'est pas assurable\" : on se souvient (ou pas !) de cette d\u00e9claration d'Henri de Castries (ex-patron d'Axa), pour rappeler qu'on ne pouvait compter sur les assureurs pour servir de filet de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 en cas de r\u00e9chauffement trop prononc\u00e9.\n\nDans une tribune r\u00e9cente parue dans Les Echos, le pr\u00e9sident du premier r\u00e9assureur fran\u00e7ais (SCOR) confirme que ceux qui sont \u00e0 risque dans cette histoire sont les assur\u00e9s et non les assureurs. Il a largement raison.\n\nTout d'abord, le changement climatique va surtout endommager des actifs naturels qui valent z\u00e9ro par convention dans l'\u00e9conomie, et ne peuvent \u00eatre ni assur\u00e9s, ni remis en \u00e9tat. La Mer de Glace, la pluviom\u00e9trie en France ou les coraux tropicaux ne peuvent pas \u00eatre remis en \u00e9tat si n\u00e9cessaire par une bonne police d'assurance ! Et dans ces cas de figure le risque est \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence port\u00e9 par les humains qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient des services naturels, non par l'assureur.\n\nCe qui peut \u00e9ventuellement \u00eatre assur\u00e9 est le d\u00e9faut d'activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique qui fait suite \u00e0 la disparition d'actifs naturels : si le Rhin baisse trop pour que les barges passent, l'industriel en bord de Rhin peut essayer de s'assurer pour les pertes d'exploitation qui en r\u00e9sultent. Mais ca ne fait pas revenir le Rhin.\n\nIl y a ensuite l'argument que l'assureur n'aimerait pas le risque. C'est tout le contraire : sans risque il n'y a pas besoin d'assurance. Le m\u00e9tier de l'assureur est, pour un risque donn\u00e9, de \"pr\u00e9voir\" l'ampleur des dommages possibles pour les assur\u00e9s, et de faire payer \u00e0 ces derniers le cout de son service pour le m\u00eame montant plus sa marge.\n\nQuand il y a un risque de devoir payer plus que les primes encaiss\u00e9es (alea trop volatil et pr\u00e9vision des dommages trop impr\u00e9cise, et/ou consentement \u00e0 payer de l'assur\u00e9 pas assez \u00e9lev\u00e9), alors l'assureur cesse de proposer ses services. Pour l'assureur, le risque est \"juste\" une diminution de son activit\u00e9 dans le segment consid\u00e9r\u00e9.\n\nPourquoi est-ce que cela ne semble pas chagriner plus que ca l'auteur de cette tribune qui rappelle ce fait ? Probablement parce que toutes les projections \u00e9conomiques \"voient\" de la croissance \u00e0 l'infini, climat ou pas (m\u00eame les sc\u00e9narios \"compatibles accord de Paris\" utilis\u00e9s pour les mod\u00e9lisations du GIEC postulent de la croissance \u00e9conomique ininterrompue jusqu'en 2100). \n\nLe secteur de l'assurance sait que son chiffre d'affaire est grosso modo proportionnel au PIB. La seule crainte que lui inspire la d\u00e9rive climatique est alors de devoir basculer sur d'autres types de risques, mais comme la solvabilit\u00e9 globale de ses clients est cens\u00e9e suivre la croissance, le climat est juste un motif d'arbitrage de son portefeuille de risques assur\u00e9s.\n\nEvidemment l'\u00e9quation change du tout au tout si la d\u00e9rive climatique peut contracter le PIB (et non juste le faire croitre moins vite). Pour avoir vraiment peur, les assureurs devront donc se convaincre que la d\u00e9rive climatique est susceptible d'engendrer une r\u00e9cession structurelle. Nous n'y sommes pas."
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"text": "L'Assembl\u00e9e Nationale vient de cr\u00e9er une \"Commission d'enqu\u00eate visant \u00e0 \u00e9tablir les raisons de la perte de souverainet\u00e9 et d'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de la France\" (https://bit.ly/3FJnu81 ). Les commissions d'enqu\u00eate du Parlement sont des instances qui servent \u00e0 contr\u00f4ler l'action du gouvernement (https://bit.ly/3E0VxaA ). \n\nElles ont des pouvoirs d'investigation \u00e9tendus : une personne convoqu\u00e9e par une commission d'enqu\u00eate ne peut refuser d'y aller sous peine de sanctions p\u00e9nales, et la Commission peut se faire communiquer tout document qu'elle juge utile (sauf ce qui est couvert par le secret d\u00e9fense ou assimil\u00e9) pour mener ses travaux.\n\nLa possibilit\u00e9 de cr\u00e9er une commission d'enqu\u00eate fait partie des pr\u00e9rogatives des groupes politiques \u00e0 l'Assembl\u00e9e, et ces commissions d'enqu\u00eate s'inscrivent \u00e9videmment dans le jeu politique o\u00f9 un groupe de l'opposition va pr\u00e9f\u00e9rentiellement choisir un sujet qui \"agace\" le pouvoir en place.\n\nLa commission pour laquelle j'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 convoqu\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9e par les R\u00e9publicains, et je parierais volontiers qu'elle veut pouvoir conclure que Hollande et Macron (voire avant) ont fait \"n'importe quoi\" en mati\u00e8re de politique \u00e9lectrique. Cela \u00e9tant, mon audition n'a que peu port\u00e9 sur l'\u00e9valuation des politiques publiques men\u00e9es ces 10 ou 20 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. \n\n\"On\" m'a surtout pos\u00e9 des questions sur les avantages et inconv\u00e9nients de tel ou tel type d'\u00e9nergie, sans oublier de parler de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 ou de d\u00e9pendance - et sur quoi - de notre pays \u00e0 des approvisionnements \u00e9trangers. Car, de fait, depuis la fin de l'\u00e8re renouvelable, notre pays est d\u00e9pendant de pays producteurs d'hydrocarbures ou de minerais, et le restera demain.\n\nDepuis la mise en ligne de cette vid\u00e9o, des extraits de 10 secondes (!) ou 2 minutes ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 circuler, avec comme commentaire \"voici ce que pense Jancovici\". Mais... dans une vid\u00e9o de plus de 2 heures, chacun pourra trouver un court extrait qui lui plait plus particuli\u00e8rement et cens\u00e9 r\u00e9sumer ma pens\u00e9e !\n\nToutes les \u00e9nergies ont des avantages, toutes ont des inconv\u00e9nients, et dans cette audition j'ai du \u00e9voquer les avantages de toutes les \u00e9nergies potentiellement disponibles. Avec un bon logiciel de montage on peut donc me pr\u00e9senter comme \u00e9tant favorable \u00e0... n'importe laquelle de nos \u00e9nergies !\n\nBien \u00e9videmment, il est impossible de r\u00e9sumer en quelques minutes la totalit\u00e9 de ce qu'il faut comprendre pour se faire une opinion sur la question. Un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 est toujours un exercice imparfait (h\u00e9las) et il faut du temps (h\u00e9las \u00e0 nouveau) pour suffisamment faire le tour de la question pour avoir une conclusion \u00e9tay\u00e9e.\n\nIl y a 10 ans j'avais \u00e9t\u00e9 auditionn\u00e9 par une autre commission d'enqu\u00eate (sur le \"cout r\u00e9el de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9\" : https://bit.ly/3NBhxMr ). Selon que l'on aime les verres \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 vides ou \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 pleins, on pourra se r\u00e9jouir que les questions soient moins na\u00efves et brossent plus large, ou que certains faits \"\u00e9l\u00e9mentaires\" fassent toujours l'objet d'un dialogue de sourds."
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"text": "Frank Elderson, membre du comit\u00e9 ex\u00e9cutif de la Banque Centrale Europ\u00e9enne, utilise le blog de la BCE pour dire aux banques de la zone euro qu'elles ne tiennent pas assez compte des sujets climatiques et environnementaux dans la conduite de leurs affaires \"ordinaires\" : https://bit.ly/3NunD0U . Sa conclusion repose sur l'examen de 186 banques supervis\u00e9es par la BCE, avec un total de bilan cumul\u00e9 de 25.000 milliards d'euros.\n\nL'auteur consid\u00e8re que les banques ne sont pas encore \"en mesure d'identifier, d'\u00e9valuer, de contr\u00f4ler et d'att\u00e9nuer les risques in\u00e9vitables d\u00e9coulant des crises climatiques et environnementales\". Plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, trois points sont l'objet de faiblesses importantes :\n\n- la m\u00e9thode : 96% des banques audit\u00e9es ne savent pas identifier correctement les risques li\u00e9s au climat et \u00e0 l'environnement dans leurs actifs. En particulier, elles ne collectent pas de donn\u00e9es granulaires sur les contreparties et les actifs qui permettraient de faire des analyses fines sur les risques. Le dirigeant de la BCE fait aussi remarquer que le concept de \"net zero en 2050\" est souvent avanc\u00e9 sans d\u00e9finition claire de ce que cela recouvre, et sans d\u00e9finition d'objectifs interm\u00e9diaires indispensables pour l'action.\n\n- un \u00e9cart entre discours et actes : alors que les documents de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence des banques \u00e9voquent abondamment le climat, dans la pratique les sources de revenus des banques sont aujourd'hui \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s les m\u00eames \"qu'avant\". Lorsque des initiatives sont prises pour les clients les plus \"intensifs en carbone\", il n'est pas expliqu\u00e9 en quoi cela pr\u00e9figure une action plus syst\u00e9mique pour rendre la banque globalement compatible avec une \u00e9conomie qui se d\u00e9carbone rapidement\n\n- enfin des politiques annonc\u00e9es mais non mises en oeuvre en pratique, y compris en ignorant des avertissements d'experts internes dans un certain nombre de cas.\n\nLes bons points - car il y en a quand m\u00eame - vont aux banques qui int\u00e8grent les risques physiques et de transition dans la couverture en capital de leurs engagements en fonction des \"caract\u00e9ristiques climat\" de ces derniers.\n\nDans les recommandations du r\u00e9gulateur, il y a notamment :\n- l'utilisation d'outils pour planifier la transition, avec la fixation d'objectifs interm\u00e9diaires. \n- la collecte large d'informations, pour calculer des risques de mani\u00e8re granulaire\n- l'int\u00e9gration des risques de transition et physique de long terme dans l'\u00e9valuation des besoins en capitaux (argh ! le mot qui f\u00e2che une banque est l\u00e2ch\u00e9 :) ).\n- la gestion des risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 la perte de biodiversit\u00e9\n\nL'article se termine en disant que, en 2024, toutes les banques devront \u00eatre \"align\u00e9es avec les les exigences du r\u00e9gulateur\". L'auteur ne dit pas ce que la BCE fera si cet objectif n'est pas atteint, mais la mani\u00e8re classique de g\u00e9rer un risque consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme \u00e9lev\u00e9 dans le monde bancaire est d'exiger une couverture \u00e9lev\u00e9e en fonds propre pour les engagements concern\u00e9s. La question est pos\u00e9e de savoir si c'est cela que la BCE a en t\u00eate."
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