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Car la production et cuisson de nos aliments, en incluant les \u00e9missions industrielles amont (fabrication des engrais, des intrants en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, et des machines agricoles), les \u00e9missions dans les exploitations, et celles \u00e0 l'aval (industries agro-alimentaires, transports, emballages, d\u00e9placements des consommateurs pour faire les courses, cuisson, etc) c'est un tiers des \u00e9missions mondiales, et pas loin du m\u00eame pourcentage en France.\n\nIl semble donc difficile de dire que nous allons devenir \"neutres\", ce qui suppose de supprimer la quasi-totali\u00e9 de nos \u00e9missions actuelles, sans s'occuper s\u00e9rieusement de ce secteur. C'est pour cela que The Shift Project se cherche le mouton ou la brebis \u00e0 5 pattes (c'est de circonstance) pour piloter la r\u00e9flexion \u00e0 venir sur la bonne mani\u00e8re de d\u00e9carboner notre assiette.\n\nSi faire un petit tour par les locaux de cette association vous tente, \u00e0 vos CV ! 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7031764966009376769,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Apr\u00e8s les ing\u00e9nieurs et les gestionnaires, c'est au tour des futurs m\u00e9decins de se faire former aux enjeux climatiques et environnementaux.\n\nD'ici \u00e0 septembre 2023, toutes les facult\u00e9s de m\u00e9decine de France vont inclure dans leur enseignement un module intitul\u00e9 \"m\u00e9decine et sant\u00e9 environnementale\" pour fournir des bases sur les enjeux, mais aussi sur la mani\u00e8re de les aborder. \n\nCe module est essentiellement constitu\u00e9 de vid\u00e9os dont la liste est accessible l\u00e0 : https://lnkd.in/dhmUtKmy\n\nMa \"partition\" dans cet ensemble consiste \u00e0 exposer l'apport de l'\u00e9nergie - c'est \u00e0 dire de notre costume d'Ironman - \u00e0 l'augmentation de l'esp\u00e9rance de vie, au travers de l'alimentation, de la prophylaxie, de la fabrication des vaccins et m\u00e9dicaments, et plus r\u00e9cemment au fonctionnement de l'h\u00f4pital moderne. \n\nLe grand paradoxe, dans la sant\u00e9, est que l'\u00e9mergence des combustibles fossiles a globalement fortement allong\u00e9 la dur\u00e9e de vie... tout en faisant na\u00eetre une menace croissante sur le maintien de cette dur\u00e9e \u00e0 l'avenir.\n\nCette courte vid\u00e9o ne d\u00e9taille pas du tout les futurs impacts possibles du changement climatique sur la sant\u00e9. Elle porte uniquement sur le pass\u00e9, pour faire comprendre en quoi l'\u00e9nergie a jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le central dans le fait que l'esp\u00e9rance de vie (en fait l'\u00e2ge moyen du d\u00e9c\u00e8s) soit pass\u00e9e d'un peu moins de 30 ans en 1800 \u00e0 environ 80 aujourd'hui.\n\nComment ne pas retourner \u00e0 30 ans dans un monde sobre en \u00e9nergie ? C'est \u00e0 ce d\u00e9fi que devront participer les m\u00e9decins - et les autres professionnels de la sant\u00e9 - \u00e0 l'avenir. Esp\u00e9rons que ce module leur donnera des cl\u00e9s de lecture utiles !\n\nNB : en farfouillant dans la liste vous y trouverez quelques \"usual suspects\" (Bourg, Bihouix, Keller, Gouyon, Selosse, Auzanneau...) sur des formats assez courts : il n'y a plus qu'\u00e0 d\u00e9guster !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7031764966009376769,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7031764966638559232,urn:li:activity:7031764966638559232,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 32, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7031764966638559232,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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s\u00e9cheresse pointe sous l'anticyclone" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7031166740042506240,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il va falloir r\u00e9viser le sens des mots en mati\u00e8re de m\u00e9t\u00e9o. Quand on \u00e9coute le bulletin, \"il fait beau\", utilise un adjectif qui est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement associ\u00e9 \u00e0 quelque chose de positif : il est assez rare que l'on emploie \"beau\" pour une situation dont on ne voudrait pas !\n\nMalheureusement, \"il fait beau\", en hiver (et m\u00eame en \u00e9t\u00e9 !), peut d\u00e9sormais \u00eatre associ\u00e9 \u00e0 un certain nombre d'inconv\u00e9nients dont on se passerait bien.\n\nTout d'abord, s'il \"fait beau\" c'est qu'il ne pleut pas. Notre pays s'appr\u00eate \u00e0 battre un record de dur\u00e9e de jours secs en hiver, avec plus de 3 semaines cons\u00e9cutives \u00e0 moins de 1 mm de pluie par jour sur le pays : https://bit.ly/3RZ2pdK\n\nCette s\u00e9cheresse hivernale survient alors que les nappes phr\u00e9atiques, au 1er janvier, \u00e9taient toujours \u00e0 un niveau bien trop bas sur une large partie du pays : https://bit.ly/3E7IALE (\"Plus des trois-quarts des nappes demeurent sous les normales mensuelles. Les niveaux sont nettement inf\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 ceux de d\u00e9cembre 2021\"). Rappelons que la recharge des nappes l'hiver c'est le confort - voire la survie - de la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation l'\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nQuand \"il fait beau\", c'est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement que nous sommes en conditions anticycloniques, avec peu de vent, et donc la production \u00e9olienne est faible, ce qui est effectivement le cas en France en moyenne sur les derni\u00e8res semaines : https://bit.ly/3lttNod \n\nLa carte des contenus carbone des pays europ\u00e9ens \u00e0 l'instant o\u00f9 je tape ce post refl\u00e8te cette faiblesse, avec des moyens fossiles qui sont utilis\u00e9s de mani\u00e8re significative : https://lnkd.in/eRvA7w-a Deuxi\u00e8me cons\u00e9quence de \"il fait beau\", donc : les \u00e9missions de CO2 augmentent, ainsi que les \u00e9missions de polluants associ\u00e9s \u00e0 la production \u00e9lectrique fossile (oxydes d'azote et particules fines).\n\nQuand \"il fait beau\" en hiver, avec un ciel d\u00e9gag\u00e9, il fait g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement aussi froid. Cela augmente d'autant la consommation \u00e9lectrique - une deuxi\u00e8me raison d'avoir des centrales \u00e0 charbon qui fonctionnent plus - ainsi que le chauffage fossile ou au bois, qui \u00e9mettent aussi des polluants. Avec l'air qui circule peu (puisqu'il y a un anticyclone), et les autres sources de particules (agriculture et transports), on se retrouve avec un \u00e9pisode de pollution aux particules fines un peu prononc\u00e9 : http://www2.prevair.org/ (choisir \"Europe\" et \"PM 2.5\" dans les menus d\u00e9roulants pour avoir une vue d'ensemble de l'Europe pour les particules les plus dangereuses). Les parisiens peuvent jeter un coup d'oeil \u00e0 https://airparif.asso.fr/ \n\nR\u00e9sumons : \"Il fait beau\" signifie donc une v\u00e9g\u00e9tation qui va souffrir l'\u00e9t\u00e9 prochain, une pollution (qui tue) et des \u00e9missions de CO2 en hausse. Si ces cons\u00e9quences \u00e9taient rappel\u00e9es \u00e0 chaque bulletin m\u00e9t\u00e9o, peut-\u00eatre que cela nous motiverait un peu plus \u00e0 d\u00e9carboner rapidement notre \u00e9conomie, et \u00e0 commencer \u00e0 nous exciter un peu plus s\u00e9rieusement sur la pr\u00e9paration au mieux \u00e0 un climat qui va devenir plus hostile pour tout ce qui pousse.\n\nC'\u00e9taient les bonnes nouvelles du jour :)" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7031166740042506240,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7031166740847837185,urn:li:activity:7031166740847837185,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 294, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7031166740847837185,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, 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"https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4E03AQGHs1C_06t5hA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "srQ75kcqQi2cl00/C2XncA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Ils p\u00e8seraient environ 1 milliard de tonnes, soit autant que la masse combin\u00e9e des humains et de leurs animaux d'\u00e9levage. Qui ? Les arthropodes terrestres, que nous appelons plus commun\u00e9ment les insectes : https://bit.ly/3XpnsYk (car les araign\u00e9es et les mille-pattes ne sont pas des insectes, ces derniers ayant 6 pattes).\n\nPourtant, leurs effectifs sont en baisse rapide. Ils le sont chez nous, mais aussi \"ailleurs\", comme par exemple en Asie : https://bit.ly/3Xto9j4\n\nDans cette tribune parue dans Le Monde, Stephane Foucart, journaliste sciences, rappelle une fois de plus cet effondrement en cours, tout en soulignant que, \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence du climat, nous n'avons pas de \"ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne extr\u00eame\" qui survienne de temps \u00e0 autres pour nous r\u00e9veiller un peu (ce qui, m\u00eame pour le climat, est h\u00e9las peu impactant, puisqu'aucun ouragan ou aucune s\u00e9cheresse n'a pour le moment conduit \u00e0 une baisse des \u00e9missions mondiales).\n\nLa cause de cette baisse est connue : ce sont les substances que nous introduisons dans l'environnement pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment pour supprimer ces bestioles rampantes ou volantes. Depuis les d\u00e9buts de l'agriculture, notre esp\u00e8ce fait tout ce qu'elle a pu pour partager le moins possible le r\u00e9sultat de cette activit\u00e9 avec d'autres esp\u00e8ces.\n\nNous ne souhaitons pas que le champ pr\u00e9vu pour accueillir du bl\u00e9 ou des poireaux accueille aussi des \"mauvaises herbes\", qui captent une partie des nutriments et du soleil : c'est la raison de l'usage des herbicides, qui sont les premiers pesticides utilis\u00e9s en tonnage en France. \n\nNous ne souhaitons pas que les \u00e9pis de ma\u00efs ou les cerises soient partag\u00e9s avec des papillons ou des mouches : c'est la raison de l'usage des insecticides qui permettent d'avoir le produit des cultures \"rien que pour nous\". \n\nLa cons\u00e9quence n'est pas une surprise : les effectifs de ces insectes diminuent. La solution semble donc \u00e9vidente, et sa contrepartie aussi : pour pr\u00e9server les insectes, il faut utiliser moins d'insecticides... et accepter alors de laisser une petite partie de ce que nous cultivons \u00e0 ces animaux, qui serviront eux-m\u00eames de nourriture aux oiseaux et \u00e0 d'autres esp\u00e8ces animales. \n\nCela fera fatalement baisser les rendements agricoles, et donc monter le prix de la nourriture. La bonne question est de savoir si nous \u00e9chapperons de toute fa\u00e7on \u00e0 une hausse de prix pour ce que nous mangeons. Car, sans insectes pollinisateurs, il y aura des baisses de rendement pour un certain nombre de productions, et sans insectes tout court probablement des \"surprises\" pour certains services \u00e9cosyst\u00e9miques dont nous b\u00e9n\u00e9ficions aujourd'hui.\n\nIl est \u00e0 craindre que, pour la biodiversit\u00e9 plus encore que pour le climat, il n'y ait pas d'action \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle tant que nous ne serons pas \"atteints dans notre chair\", avec au surplus la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire le lien entre ce qui nous arrive et la v\u00e9ritable cause. Pour la biodiversit\u00e9 comme pour le climat, un de nos adversaires les plus redoutables est le sentiment que nous avons encore bien le temps." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7030856556048973824,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7030856557022072832,urn:li:activity:7030856557022072832,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 119, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7030856557022072832,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7030856557022072832,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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Olivier Gupta, Directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral - Mardi 24 janvier 2023" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7030653288962252800,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A quoi sert l'Autorit\u00e9 de S\u00fbret\u00e9 Nucl\u00e9aire ? Si vous vous \u00eates pos\u00e9 la question un jour, cette vid\u00e9o est faite pour vous. Il s'agit de l'audition du patron de l'ASN dans le cadre des auditions de la \"Commission d'enqu\u00eate visant \u00e0 \u00e9tablir les raisons de la perte de souverainet\u00e9 et d'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de la France\".\n\nEn 3 heures de temps, sont pass\u00e9s en revue le mandat et le fonctionnement de cette instance, ses moyens, et l'articulation avec d'autres organismes impliqu\u00e9s dans la s\u00fbret\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire (comme l'IRSN, qui vient par ailleurs de faire l'objet d'une annonce inattendue de rattachement partiel \u00e0 l'ASN apr\u00e8s cette audition : https://lnkd.in/eQV9WjJU).\n\nEn 3 heures, il y a \u00e9videmment du temps pour aborder des questions un peu techniques, dont les suivantes :\n\n- est-ce le changement de cadre r\u00e9glementaire en cours de route qui explique une partie du retard \u00e0 Flamanville ?\n\n- pourquoi en France les installations doivent \u00eatre conformes \u00e0 l'\u00e9tat de l'art alors qu'aux USA il leur suffit d'\u00eatre conformes \u00e0 leurs sp\u00e9cifications d'origine ?\n\n- l'ASN met-elle en balance la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement avec la s\u00fbret\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire ?\n\n- le niveau de s\u00fbret\u00e9 des installations nucl\u00e9aires fran\u00e7aises s'est-il d\u00e9grad\u00e9 parce que le parc est plus \u00e2g\u00e9 ?\n\n- y a-t-il un risque \u00e0 prolonger les centrales au-del\u00e0 de 40 ans ?\n\n- y a-t-il un risque de pertes de comp\u00e9tences \u00e0 utiliser des sous-traitants dans le nucl\u00e9aire ?\n\n- le parc - actuel ou futur - int\u00e8gre-t-il des mesures d'adaptation au changement climatique ?\n\n- l'EPR est-il un r\u00e9acteur trop compliqu\u00e9 parce qu'il est franco-allemand ?\n\n- la fili\u00e8re est-elle suffisamment attractive pour disposer des comp\u00e9tences qui seront n\u00e9cessaires pour mener un chantier ambitieux de \"renouveau nucl\u00e9aire\" ?\n\n- le pr\u00e9sident de l'ASN voit-il sa responsabilit\u00e9 personnelle n\u00e9cessairement engag\u00e9e en cas d'accident nucl\u00e9aire en France ? (cette question d\u00e9coulait d'une affirmation de Corinne Lepage soutenant que c'\u00e9tait le cas)\n\nDans cette intervention le pr\u00e9sident de l'ASN fait part \u00e0 plusieurs reprises d'une crainte forte : celle d'\u00eatre mis dans la situation o\u00f9 il serait amen\u00e9 \u00e0 choisir entre plonger le pays dans le noir et laisser fonctionner une installation qu'il aurait arr\u00eat\u00e9e \"en temps normal\". Cette situation se pr\u00e9sentera, dit-il, si la politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique se base sur des paris incertains ou un d\u00e9faut d'anticipation qui am\u00e8neraient le pays \u00e0 se retrouver sans marges. A bon entendeur..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7030653288962252800,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7030653289532661760,urn:li:activity:7030653289532661760,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 21, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7030653289532661760,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7030653289532661760,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:7030653289532661760", "threadId": 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7133322728601584016)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "msn.com \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Des chercheurs sugg\u00e8rent de cr\u00e9er un \u00e9cran de poussi\u00e8re lunaire entre la Terre et le soleil pour att\u00e9nuer le changement climatique by msn.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.msn.com/fr-fr/actualite/technologie-et-sciences/des-chercheurs-sugg%C3%A8rent-de-cr%C3%A9er-un-%C3%A9cran-de-poussi%C3%A8re-lunaire-entre-la-terre-et-le-soleil-pour-att%C3%A9nuer-le-changement-climatique/ar-AA17iku5" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Des chercheurs sugg\u00e8rent de cr\u00e9er un \u00e9cran de poussi\u00e8re lunaire entre la Terre et le soleil pour att\u00e9nuer le changement climatique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7030130261799366656,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "En route pour la g\u00e9oing\u00e9nierie ! Si nous avons un exc\u00e8s d'effet de serre (= un exc\u00e8s de rayonnement infrarouge en provenance de l'atmosph\u00e8re), il suffit de diminuer un peu le rayonnement solaire re\u00e7u par la plan\u00e8te, et l'ensemble nous remet \u00e0 la bonne temp\u00e9rature. C'est b\u00eate comme chou non ?\n\nUne id\u00e9e pour y parvenir consiste \u00e0 placer entre la terre et le soleil un objet suffisamment vaste, et l\u00e9g\u00e8rement opaque, qui va intercepter une partie du rayonnement solaire et ainsi contribuer \u00e0 \"refroidir la terre\".\n\nLa m\u00e9canique c\u00e9leste nous indique en effet que, sur la ligne qui joint la terre au soleil, il existe un point - appel\u00e9 point de Lagrange - o\u00f9 l'attraction de la terre et celle du soleil dont de m\u00eame intensit\u00e9. Si l'on peut y placer un objet, ce dernier y reste (il est \"tir\u00e9 de chaque c\u00f4t\u00e9\" avec une force \u00e9gale), et se met alors \u00e0 orbiter autour du soleil \u00e0 la m\u00eame vitesse que la terre. \n\nIl y a donc p\u00e9riodiquement l'id\u00e9e de placer \u00e0 cet endroit de quoi rafra\u00eechir notre plan\u00e8te : de grands miroirs, ou, r\u00e9cemment, un nuage de poussi\u00e8re r\u00e9fl\u00e9chissante (https://bit.ly/3RYkybW ). A partir du pouvoir r\u00e9flexif des particules de poussi\u00e8re et de leur densit\u00e9, les chercheurs ont calcul\u00e9 qu'avec 10 millions de tonnes de poussi\u00e8re on pourrait diminuer la puissance solaire d'un peu moins de 2%. \n\nLa puissance solaire re\u00e7ue au niveau du sol \u00e9tant de 170 watts par m2 en moyenne (sur toute a surface et toute l'ann\u00e9e), 2% en moins ca fait 3 watts par m2, soit \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s le for\u00e7age actuellement du au suppl\u00e9ment humain d'effet de serre. CQFD.\n\nSauf que... 10 Mt repr\u00e9senterait 700 fois la masse combin\u00e9e de tout ce que les humains ont envoy\u00e9 dans l'espace depuis le d\u00e9but des fus\u00e9es. Si ca fait trop depuis la Terre, partons de la Lune ! Car en plus sur notre satellite il y a de la poussi\u00e8re \u00e0 volont\u00e9... Il n'y a qu'\u00e0 y construire une base permanente, et y d\u00e9velopper une industrie permettant de fabriquer fus\u00e9es et carburant \u00e0 partir de mat\u00e9riaux locaux et de rayonnement solaire (pour \u00e9viter d'amener sur la lune le poids des fus\u00e9es+carburants depuis la terre, ce qui \"ram\u00e8nerait au probl\u00e8me pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent\"). Une formalit\u00e9 :)\n\nPar ailleurs en arrivant au point de Lagrange les grains de poussi\u00e8re ont une \u00e9nergie cin\u00e9tique (la \"vitesse\" qui leur a permis de se d\u00e9placer depuis le point de lancement) et pas de p\u00e9dale de frein : ils ne peuvent \u00eatre \"arr\u00eat\u00e9s\" au bon endroit. Pire : si la position initiale d'un grain de poussi\u00e8re \"arr\u00eat\u00e9\" est \u00e9loign\u00e9e d'un km du point de Lagrange, au bout d'un an il se sera \u00e9loign\u00e9 \u00e0 plus de 1000 km du point en question (c'est un \u00e9quilibre metastable). Il faudrait donc r\u00e9alimenter ce nuage en permanence.\n\nQu'en d\u00e9duire ? Que la conclusion \u00e9vidente \u00e0 tirer de ce papier est que cette solution ne sera jamais \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle. C'est pourtant l'inverse que laissent penser quelques titres \u00e0 sensation relev\u00e9s ici ou l\u00e0. Avis aux journalistes qui ont relay\u00e9 ou veulent le faire : commencez par lire les petites lignes, comme avec les contrats d'assurance..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7030130261799366656,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7030130262550147072,urn:li:activity:7030130262550147072,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 206, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7030130262550147072,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7030130262550147072,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7517892329526013595)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbone4.com \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Agriculture et climat : l\u2019urgence de s\u2019adapter ! | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/publication-agriculture-climat-adaptation" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Agriculture et climat : l\u2019urgence de s\u2019adapter ! | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7029872347792691200,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "2022 ne restera pas dans les m\u00e9moires des agriculteurs comme une ann\u00e9e tr\u00e8s sympathique. Au mieux les cultures n'ont pas souffert par rapport \u00e0 2021, et au pire elles ont connu une baisse de rendement, de l'ordre de 15% pour le ma\u00efs ou le soja.\n\nMais c'est surtout sur l'herbe, qui fait l'objet de peu de syst\u00e8mes irrigu\u00e9s, que la chute a \u00e9t\u00e9 la plus forte : il y a eu un d\u00e9ficit de production des p\u00e2turages d'un tiers par rapport \u00e0 la moyenne 1989 - 2018, ce qui a fortement baiss\u00e9 une partie de la production de fromage AOP (par exemple pas de Salers cet \u00e9t\u00e9).\n\nCet article de Carbone 4 vous propose un petit tour d'horizon de l'ann\u00e9e \u00e9coul\u00e9e, compl\u00e9t\u00e9e par une analyse prospective sur 4 d\u00e9partements du Sud-Ouest (Aveyron, Tarn, Tarn-et-Garonne et Lot).\n\nA cause de l'inertie de la d\u00e9rive climatique (qui s'amplifie tant que les \u00e9missions mondiales nettes ne sont pas nulles), les situations adverses vont se multiplier, et il est plus que temps de r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 ce que nous allons faire en face, surtout qu'\u00e0 l'horizon de quelques d\u00e9cennies il va aussi y avoir un sujet sur la disponibilit\u00e9 de l'\u00e9nergie fossile, qui est partout dans les cultures : pour fabriquer les engrais azot\u00e9s, pour les amener dans les champs, pour faire avancer les tracteurs, pour faire avancer les camions \u00e0 l'aval du champ, pour faire tourner le secteur agroalimentaire.... \n\nL'agriculture est par ailleurs un syst\u00e8me humainement inerte : les actifs y aiment les traditions (ce qui est une mani\u00e8re de dire qu'ils n'aiment pas le changement !), la rotation du capital y est lente, et enfin y faire venir du monde ne se fait pas en un claquement de doigts.\n\nPour minimiser les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts, le ma\u00eetre mot, l\u00e0 comme ailleurs, est donc l'anticipation. Mais comment anticiper alors que nous avons b\u00e2ti un syst\u00e8me \u00e9conomique et r\u00e9glementaire dont la premi\u00e8re priorit\u00e9 est de tirer les prix vers le bas - ce qui prive le secteur de moyens d'investissement - sur la base de la comp\u00e9tition - qui raccourcit les horizons de temps - et pas du tout d'assurer la p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 physique d'un syst\u00e8me r\u00e9silient ?\n\nLe secteur agricole n'est ni assez riche ni assez libre de ses mouvements pour d\u00e9cider en toute autonomie de moyens de \"faire ce qu'il faut\" pour rendre son activit\u00e9 la plus r\u00e9siliente possible, tout en abaissant la pression environnementale (\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, phytosanitaires) dont il est \u00e0 l'origine. Rappelons qu'il ne b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie aujourd'hui que de 2% des revenus \u00e9conomiques du pays, ce qui est peu pour un secteur dont 100% des autres activit\u00e9s d\u00e9pendent. \n\nSi nous voulons une agriculture \u00e0 la fois plus r\u00e9siliente face \u00e0 l'amplification de la d\u00e9rive climatique \u00e0 venir et moins perturbatrice ce l'environnement, il y a un \u00e9l\u00e9ment que nous allons difficilement pouvoir \u00e9viter : d\u00e9cider de payer la nourriture plus cher. 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Dit autrement, si l'on se met \u00e0 \"laisser en paix\" un endroit qui \u00e9tait autrefois perturb\u00e9 par les activit\u00e9s humaines, est-ce que la biodiversit\u00e9 revient au niveau qu'elle aurait eu si nous n'avions jamais touch\u00e9 \u00e0 rien ?\n\nCela n'est pas garanti, indique une \u00e9tude parue dans Journal of Ecology (https://lnkd.in/e7G9q24e ), qui a examin\u00e9 le nombre et l'abondance des esp\u00e8ces sur des parcelles de prairie situ\u00e9es aux USA et anciennement agricoles qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 laiss\u00e9es \"\u00e0 l'abandon\" depuis 3 ans \u00e0 presque un si\u00e8cle. \n\nSur aucune des parcelles les esp\u00e8ces n'\u00e9taient au niveau de ce que l'on trouvait sur des prairies identiques n'ayant jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 exploit\u00e9s pour l'agriculture. Une soixantaine de plantes poussant sur les prairies \"primaires\" ne s'observaient sur aucune des parcelles de prairie \"secondaire\", m\u00eame au bout de plusieurs d\u00e9cennies. En moyenne, un tiers des esp\u00e8ces manque \u00e0 l'appel sur les parcelles ayant \u00e9t\u00e9 cultiv\u00e9es par rapport \u00e0 celles ne l'ayant jamais \u00e9t\u00e9. \n\nPour beaucoup d'entre nous, il y a l'id\u00e9e de r\u00e9versibilit\u00e9 dans l'\u00e9tat des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes : si la pression qui a conduit \u00e0 la baisse de la biodiversit\u00e9 est all\u00e9g\u00e9e ou supprim\u00e9e, alors la biodiversit\u00e9 se r\u00e9tablit pour l'essentiel. Cette \u00e9tude montre que la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 n'est pas si simple, et que la recolonisation d'un \u00e9cosyst\u00e8me d\u00e9grad\u00e9 n'est pas n\u00e9cessairement automatique.\n\nEn outre cette \u00e9tude a \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9e avec une d\u00e9rive climatique limit\u00e9e : pour les esp\u00e8ces v\u00e9g\u00e9tales qui avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 supprim\u00e9es par l'exploitation agricole, le climat d'aujourd'hui est encore relativement proche de celui qui existait au moment de la mise de la prairie en culture. \n\nMais \u00e0 l'avenir le climat existant au moment de l'arr\u00eat de la pression sera de plus en plus diff\u00e9rent de celui qui existait au moment du d\u00e9marrage de la pression. La question de la r\u00e9versibilit\u00e9 sera n\u00e9cessairement encore plus pos\u00e9e dans ce contexte.\n\nCe que sugg\u00e8re l'article dans sa partie finale est de donner un \"coup de pouce\" \u00e0 la restauration de la biodiversit\u00e9, par exemple en plantant des graines des esp\u00e8ces qui ont du mal \u00e0 revenir spontan\u00e9ment. \n\nEn somme, la proposition est de corriger la baisse de la biodiversit\u00e9 caus\u00e9e par l'agriculture par... une autre forme d'agriculture ! 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Christophe B\u00e9chu demande la prise en compte d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 by lemans.maville.com", "actionTarget": "https://lemans.maville.com/actu/actudet_-rechauffement-climatique.-christophe-bechu-demande-la-prise-en-compte-d-un-scenario-a-+-4-c-_54135-5613674_actu.Htm" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "R\u00e9chauffement climatique. Christophe B\u00e9chu demande la prise en compte d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7029152900555665408,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'automobiliste qui boucle sa ceinture s'attend-il \u00e0 avoir un accident ? Le particulier qui paye sa prime d'assurance contre l'incendie s'attend-il \u00e0 voir son domicile en proie aux flammes ? Le navigateur qui enfile son gilet de sauvetage \u00e0 finir par-dessus bord ?\n\nLorsque le coup du sort est possible, la prudence veut que l'on prenne ses pr\u00e9cautions, pour parer des \u00e9ventualit\u00e9s alors m\u00eame que la personne qui est victime n'est pas en d\u00e9faut sur son propre comportement (comme un conducteur saoul qui ne vous a pas vu ou un coup de foudre).\n\nIl en va de m\u00eame pour le climat. Si l'\u00e9volution des conditions climatiques en France ne d\u00e9pendait que des \u00e9missions fran\u00e7aises (une chose que pensait un ministre que j'ai rencontr\u00e9 dans le gouvernement Macron I, accessoirement), on pourrait consid\u00e9rer que de pr\u00e9parer le pays \u00e0 une \u00e9volution climatique \"incompatible accords de Paris\" est une d\u00e9mission.\n\nMais ce que sera le climat de la France en 2100 d\u00e9pend avant tout de ce que vont \u00e9mettre tous les autres pays que le n\u00f4tre d'ici \u00e0 2100. Avons nous de la prise dessus ? La r\u00e9ponse est oui pour partie : d'une part l'humain est animal mim\u00e9tique (merci la mode pour nous le rappeler !), et d'autre part si nous trouvons des \"solutions\" chez nous nous pourrons ensuite les exporter.\n\nMais nous avons au mieux un pouvoir d'influence et non un pouvoir absolu. La prudence veut donc que l'on ait un plan B si la baisse des \u00e9missions ne va pas assez vite dans le monde (et actuellement elle ne va pas assez vite...). \n\nEn pratique, avoir ce plan B signifie \"durcir\" tout ce que nous pouvons durcir en France pour r\u00e9sister au mieux \u00e0 des conditions climatiques qui d\u00e9riveraient fortement par rapport au sc\u00e9nario \"id\u00e9al\" d'une hausse limit\u00e9e \u00e0 1,5 \u00b0C dans le monde (ce qui signifie plus en France car les terres \u00e9merg\u00e9es se r\u00e9chauffent plus vite que la moyenne).\n\nCe n'est pas une fois que la situation est \"cata\" que nous aurons la possibilit\u00e9 d'avoir en une semaine une for\u00eat constitu\u00e9e des bonnes esp\u00e8ces, des cultures r\u00e9sistant aux canicules ou hivers doux, des infrastructures et des voies de communication en \u00e9tat de fonctionner, ou encore des logements qui ne soient pas des fournaises.\n\nLe principe m\u00eame de s'y prendre maintenant pour \u00eatre \"pr\u00eat\" dans 50 ans, et d'utiliser d'un sc\u00e9nario tr\u00e8s adverse est donc une bonne chose : cela s'appelle de la prudence. \n\nPour passer \u00e0 l'action, il va d'abord falloir mod\u00e9liser pour chaque acteur les cons\u00e9quences possibles de 4\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement en France. Que risque un bailleur social ? Une installation industrielle ? Un pont ? Un r\u00e9seau d'eau ? Un agriculteur ? Un r\u00e9seau de communications ? Un h\u00f4pital ? \n\nPuis il faudra ensuite imaginer les moyens d'y r\u00e9pondre (et parfois le seul sera l'abandon...) et enfin les mettre en oeuvre.\n\nTout cela demandera des moyens intellectuels puis mat\u00e9riels (et donc des sous). Sans obligation s\u00e9rieuse de la puissance publique, il est peu probable qu'ils arrivent tous seuls \u00e0 la bonne vitesse !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7029152900555665408,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7029152901151227904,urn:li:activity:7029152901151227904,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 90, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7029152901151227904,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7029152901151227904,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7028725474373574656,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une des solutions qui permettrait d'utiliser des combustibles fossiles sans d\u00e9ranger le climat s'appelle la capture et s\u00e9questration du CO2 (en anglais CCS pour Carbon Capture and Sequestration), et passe par les op\u00e9rations suivantes :\n\n- on \"attrape\" le CO2 d'une installation de combustion avant qu'il ne s'\u00e9chappe dans l'atmosph\u00e8re. Pour cela la fum\u00e9e barbote dans un liquide sp\u00e9cial - g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement des amines - qui va \"accrocher\" les mol\u00e9cules de CO2 (on parle d'adsorption) et laisser partir le reste.\n\n- le CO2 est r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 en faisant chauffer la solution qui l'a adsorb\u00e9,\n\n- il est compress\u00e9, transport\u00e9 dans un tuyau et enfin inject\u00e9 sous forme supercritique (une forme interm\u00e9diaire entre le gaz et le liquide) sous le sol dans une formation g\u00e9ologique dont il ne sortira plus\n\nCette op\u00e9ration n'a de sens que pour des installation fixes importantes (centrales \u00e0 charbon ou \u00e0 gaz, cimenteries ou aci\u00e9ries). La capture demande 20% \u00e0 30% de l'\u00e9nergie du site, et fait baisser la production (d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, d'acier...) d'autant. C'est de loin la premi\u00e8re barri\u00e8re \u00e0 l'utilisation de ce proc\u00e9d\u00e9.\n\nIl faut ensuite trouver o\u00f9 injecter ce CO2. Les anciens gisements de p\u00e9trole et de gaz sont une premi\u00e8re possibilit\u00e9. Ce sont de bons candidats, car, avant exploitation, ils \u00e9taient aptes \u00e0 retenir longtemps au m\u00eame endroit du liquide et du gaz sous pression. Il faut juste v\u00e9rifier que les forages d'exploitation (normalement scell\u00e9s \u00e0 la fin de vie du gisement) ne changent pas l'\u00e9tanch\u00e9it\u00e9.\n\nLes aquif\u00e8res souterrains - un m\u00e9lange de roche et d'eau - sont une deuxi\u00e8me possibilit\u00e9. Le CO2 inject\u00e9 finit par se dissoudre puis se transformer lentement en carbonates avec le temps.\n\nLes p\u00e9troliers connaissent assez bien l'injection du CO2 sous le sol :\n- dans beaucoup de gisements p\u00e9troliers le fait d'injecter du CO2 permet de mieux \"laver\" le gisement. En pareil cas le moteur de l'action n'est donc pas la vertu environnementale mais tout simplement l'augmentation du p\u00e9trole produit !\n- le gaz naturel extrait de terre contient toujours un peu de CO2, et ce dernier doit \u00eatre enlev\u00e9 avant le transport par gazoduc, sinon il y a un risque fort de corrosion des infrastructures (la pr\u00e9sence simultan\u00e9e d'eau et de CO2 cr\u00e9e un m\u00e9lange acide). Les op\u00e9rateurs doivent donc s\u00e9parer le gaz du CO2 en t\u00eate de puits, et en Norv\u00e8ge ce CO2 doit \u00eatre r\u00e9inject\u00e9 sinon le p\u00e9trolier paye une p\u00e9nalit\u00e9 \u00e0 la tonne. \n\nCe n'est donc pas un hasard si Total - un p\u00e9trolier - et le Danemark - la Mer du Nord - regardent ensemble ce qu'ils pourraient mettre comme CO2 sous la mer. Il reste \u00e0 trouver des industriels acceptant d'investir pour capturer le CO2 \u00e0 la source et \u00e0 se faire payer pour ca. \n\nOn parle potentiellement de 10 Mt de CO2 par an, soit 500 M\u20ac/an environ au cours actuel du CO2. C'est assez d'argent pour que ca vaille le coup de reconvertir une plate-forte, mais cela \u00e9vitera juste les \u00e9missions d'une centrale \u00e0 charbon. 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"PROFILE_MENTION" }, { "start": 886, "length": 12, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Emilie", "lastName": "LANEZ", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABHRrtsBMC8nh_z8X50VQpbmZDi4bHNYSqQ", "occupation": "Grand reporter", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:298954459", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAABHRrtsBMC8nh_z8X50VQpbmZDi4bHNYSqQ", "publicIdentifier": "emilie-lanez", "trackingId": "lTA31xEiQ7SYNjHhMjjKBg==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Longtemps seul contre tous \u00e0 d\u00e9fendre le nucl\u00e9aire, Jean-Marc Jancovici est convaincu d\u2019avoir toujours eu raison. En partie vrai.\n\nMal l\u00e9ch\u00e9 et brillantissime, talentueux et bougon, d\u00e9daigneux et populaire : qui est cette idole des trentenaires urbains, qu\u2019Edouard Philippe re\u00e7oit \u00e0 d\u00e9jeuner dans sa th\u00e9ba\u00efde du Havre, que Bruno Le Maire \u00e9coute, que Gabriel Attal invite, que la d\u00e9put\u00e9e \u00e9colo Delphine Batho cite, que Julien Aubert, vice-pr\u00e9sident LR consulte, que le math\u00e9maticien et ancien d\u00e9put\u00e9 C\u00e9dric Villani r\u00e9v\u00e8re et que Marine Tondelier, nouvelle patronne des Verts, accuse publiquement d\u2019\u00eatre un \"menteur\" ?\n\nFaut-il se r\u00e9jouir qu\u2019enfin notre franchouillard Greta Thunberg \u00e9lectrise des cohortes de cadres sup accroch\u00e9s \u00e0 leur bagnole et mangeant des fraises en hiver ? D\u2019o\u00f9 vient ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne ?\n\nEnqu\u00eate sur un sexag\u00e9naire ronchon et pessimiste devenu l\u2019idole des jeunes, par Emilie LANEZ \u2935\ufe0f" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7028059989986430976,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7028059990707838976,urn:li:activity:7028059990707838976,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 48, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7028059990707838976,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7028059990707838976,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"L'Express", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1662017909939?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=Q8ucAB_TBYdYbWUoXz36Ab2CiDV4cVMMXtGfV6y4jU0", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1662017909939?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=tS-kG2rfgNxW91HNXmizHbpQMM9vVycM6z0e6vt_TT0", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1662017909939?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=hpwadhQvZCpW7872ZzQjl-HhfNznddSdp1I0XH97Zsg", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQH54zItmk4oqA/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "lexpress", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:39029", "trackingId": "uVsFxhPuScOZvjxHL8oZoQ==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" }, { "start": 807, "length": 9, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:39029", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:39029", "name": "L'Express", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1662017909939?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=Q8ucAB_TBYdYbWUoXz36Ab2CiDV4cVMMXtGfV6y4jU0", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1662017909939?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=tS-kG2rfgNxW91HNXmizHbpQMM9vVycM6z0e6vt_TT0", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1662017909939?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=hpwadhQvZCpW7872ZzQjl-HhfNznddSdp1I0XH97Zsg", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQH54zItmk4oqA/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "lexpress", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:39029", "trackingId": "A4yvll2jTB208inV9lWjUA==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Il y a une grosse heure, j'ai comment\u00e9 ce post de L'Express pour corriger une affirmation erron\u00e9e contenue dans ce portrait auquel je n'ai pas contribu\u00e9 (le commentaire expliquait justement pourquoi).\n\nL'Express ayant supprim\u00e9 mon commentaire peu apr\u00e8s, je le reproduis donc en post. Je dois dire que je ne comprends pas ce qui motiv\u00e9 cette suppression : soit la personne de permanence sur le compte linkedin de l'Express un Dimanche soir regardait la t\u00e9l\u00e9 sans faire attention \u00e0 ce qu'elle faisait, soit elle a laiss\u00e9 le clavier \u00e0 son enfant de 2 ans, soit... le vilain mot de censure vient \u00e0 l'esprit, ce qui pour un media d'une d\u00e9mocratie ne serait pas terrible. Je suis volontiers preneur de l'explication si le journal veut bien me la fournir. \n\nVoici donc mot \u00e0 mot le commentaire que j'avais mis :\n\n\"L'Express la cause invoqu\u00e9e dans ce portrait pour mon refus de parler \u00e0 la journaliste est erron\u00e9e : j'ai d\u00e9clin\u00e9 avant tout parce que je consid\u00e8re que les portraits sont contreproductifs, et non d'abord par manque de temps.\n\nJ'ai expliqu\u00e9 par mail \u00e0 la journaliste que le \"portrait\" focalisait le propos sur le messager (qui est secondaire) et non sur le message, qu'il donnait toujours l'impression d'un parcours solitaire alors que tout travail se fait en \u00e9quipe, et enfin qu'il \u00e9tait par construction b\u00e2ti sur des points saillants (pour lesquels c'est facile de mettre des \u00e9tiquettes pour ou contre) qui crispent le d\u00e9bat alors que nous avons besoin de nous parler. J'ai ajout\u00e9 qu'en cons\u00e9quence je ne souhaitais pas y passer du temps. \n\nC'est pour le m\u00eame genre de raison que je n'avais pas envie d'\u00eatre nomm\u00e9 \"personnalit\u00e9 de l'ann\u00e9e\" : ce n'est pas sur moi qu'il faut concentrer les moyens \u00e9ditoriaux mais sur le fond. \n\nLe r\u00e9sultat me donne h\u00e9las raison : je ne vois pas en quoi cet article va aider la prise de d\u00e9cision pour notre avenir. Il servira au mieux \u00e0 alimenter \"ma\" page wikipedia (dont je n'ai pas \u00e9crit une ligne) o\u00f9, la derni\u00e8re fois que j'ai regard\u00e9, j'ai compt\u00e9 plus de 90 erreurs factuelles ou d'interpr\u00e9tation.\"\n\nMon commentaire ne caresse pas le magazine dans le sens du poil, mais il fait partie d'un droit de r\u00e9ponse normal, et je n'ai pas l'impression qu'il soit injurieux ou insultant. Sa suppression reste donc une \u00e9nigme. \n\nPuisqu'un post offre plus de place qu'un commentaire j'en profite pour rajouter deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments.\n\n1 - Mon temps professionnel est essentiellement affect\u00e9 (dans cet ordre) au quotidien de Carbone 4, \u00e0 celui du Shift Project, \u00e0 des conf\u00e9rences et interventions, et \u00e0 des publications. Les media et les politiques sont marginaux en termes de temps pass\u00e9. Ce portrait ne mentionne ni C4 ni The Shift Project...\n\n2 - c'est \u00e0 nouveau le nucl\u00e9aire qui m'est coll\u00e9 sur la figure comme \"premier \u00e9l\u00e9ment distinctif\". Il suffit pourtant d'\u00e9couter n'importe laquelle de mes conf\u00e9rences (https://bit.ly/3l9HEzR ) pour voir que cela ne correspond pas \u00e0 mon discours. Mais \"pronucl\u00e9aire\" ca doit faire plus de clics que \"vulgarisateur\"..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7028122018780708864,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7028122019623772160,urn:li:activity:7028122019623772160,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 284, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7028122019623772160,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7028122019623772160,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7027994565676527616,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans notre pays, \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s tout le monde est d'accord pour avoir plus de transports en commun. Par contre, quand il s'agit de d\u00e9cider qui doit passer \u00e0 la caisse pour le permettre, l'unanimit\u00e9 est un peu moins de mise !\n\nC'\u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 un sujet quand l'\u00e9conomie \u00e9tait en croissance, et paradoxalement une \u00e9conomie mal portante pourrait contribuer \u00e0 augmenter encore la demande.\n\nCela vient du fait que notre comportement en mati\u00e8re de d\u00e9placements du quotidien a ob\u00e9it depuis longtemps \u00e0 une double logique budg\u00e9taire (ce que montrent les statistiques des \u00e9conomistes des transports).\n\nLa premi\u00e8re est \u00e9conomique : nous utilisons g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pour nous d\u00e9placer le moyen le plus cher que notre revenu nous autorise. En premi\u00e8re approximation les personnes qui peuvent se payer une voiture et qui ont une place de parking chez eux et au travail utilisent l'automobile, et les autres les transports en commun (tendance que le covid a renforc\u00e9e).\n\nLorsque la conjoncture devient plus difficile sans pour autant priver les gens de leur motifs d\u00e9placement, une partie de la population a plus de mal \u00e0 utiliser son v\u00e9hicule, et voudrait plus en transports en commun. Cet effet est encore renforc\u00e9 lorsque la difficult\u00e9 \u00e9conomique vient de l'\u00e9nergie (moindre disponibilit\u00e9 et/ou prix qui montent tr\u00e8s fort, comme en 2008).\n\nA cela vient s'ajouter le fait que, sur s\u00e9rie longue, nous avons fonctionn\u00e9 \u00e0 temps de d\u00e9placement constant. L'arriv\u00e9e de voitures en masse depuis l'apr\u00e8s-guerre n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9 pour aller plus vite au m\u00eame endroit, mais pour passer le m\u00eame temps \u00e0 faire plus de km (parce que cela \u00e9largit l'univers de choix pour le logement, le travail, l'\u00e9cole...). \n\nL'augmentation du nombre de voitures - en France le parc auto est pass\u00e9 de 3 \u00e0 38 millions d'unit\u00e9s de 1945 \u00e0 maintenant) - a donc induit de l'\u00e9talement urbain, cr\u00e9ant des zones avec des densit\u00e9s d'habitants au km2 plus faibles qu'en ville, peupl\u00e9es de gens qui font des dizaines de km en auto tous les jours (cela se constate partout dans le monde).\n\nAller \"chercher\" en transports en commun des p\u00e9riurbains qui n'(aur)ont plus les moyens \u00e9conomiques d'utiliser leur voiture coute(ra) beaucoup plus cher par personne que pour les urbains, puisque les couts d'un syst\u00e8me de transports en commun sont pour partie des couts fixes.\n\nEnfin m\u00eame pour les infrastructures existantes les charges augmentent avec la fr\u00e9quentation : par exemple s'il y a une fr\u00e9quence de passage plus importante cela signifie plus de personnel, plus de mat\u00e9riel roulant, plus d'\u00e9nergie, plus de maintenance...\n\nLe casse t\u00eate du Syndicat des Transports d'Ile de France (90% du trafic du quotidien fran\u00e7ais en mode ferr\u00e9) n'est donc pas r\u00e9solu demain matin. En effet, \u00e0 l'horizon de quelques d\u00e9cennies l'\u00e9nergie sera de moins en moins disponible, et \u00e0 la suite les flux physiques sous-jacents de l'\u00e9conomie aussi. Qui peut-on et doit-on \"transporter en commun\" quand il y a globalement moins de moyens : c'est d\u00e9sormais la question qui se pose." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7027994565676527616,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7027994566683193344,urn:li:activity:7027994566683193344,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 67, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7027994566683193344,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7027994566683193344,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8462332020454373656)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Carburants : les \u00ab gilets jaunes \u00bb ont-ils raison de d\u00e9noncer une hausse des prix ? by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/carburants-les-gilets-jaunes-ont-ils-raison-de-denoncer-une-hausse-des-prix-149158" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Carburants\u00a0: les \u00ab\u00a0gilets jaunes\u00a0\u00bb ont-ils raison de d\u00e9noncer une hausse des prix\u00a0?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7027692000636203008,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "En 2018, la France a v\u00e9cu l'\u00e9pisode des \"gilets jaunes\". A l'\u00e9poque essence et gazole \u00e9taient \u00e0 environ 1,5 euro le litre. C'est d\u00e9sormais entre 1,8 et 2 euros selon la pompe et le type de carburant (https://bit.ly/2SBEC4o ). Et.... rien. Pas d'\u00e9meute, alors que dans le m\u00eame temps le prix du gaz et de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ont fortement augment\u00e9, sans parler du reste. \n\nSi la raison premi\u00e8re de ce qui s'est pass\u00e9 il y a 4 ans \u00e9tait juste le niveau de prix dans l'absolu, pourquoi tout le monde fait le dos rond actuellement ?\n\nTentons une hypoth\u00e8se : \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque l'Etat avait prononc\u00e9 le mot \"taxe carbone\". Or parler de fiscalit\u00e9 des carburants, c'est d\u00e9battre de la part \u00e0 la main de notre pays, pour laquelle il ne d\u00e9pend \u00e9videmment que de nous de la monter... ou de la baisser. \n\nActuellement, c'est la faute \u00e0 \"pas de chance\". C'est pas de chance si Poutine a envahi l'Ukraine. C'est \"pas de chance\" si le prix de march\u00e9 du baril monte fortement. Et on ne va quand m\u00eame pas menacer la Russie ou l'Irak de l'arme nucl\u00e9aire pour que ces pays augmentent leur production d'or noir !\n\nIl est facile de constater que nous acceptons souvent bien plus facilement les efforts d\u00e9clench\u00e9s par \"pas de chance\" que ceux qui sont le r\u00e9sultat d'une d\u00e9marche intentionnelle. Si les taxes sur les carburants augmentent, on ne nous enl\u00e8vera pas de la t\u00eate que notre pr\u00e9sident, qui devrait nous prendre sous son aile, prend un malin plaisir \u00e0 nous rendre la vie plus difficile !\n\nEt pourtant, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 l'\u00e9volution actuelle est \"pas de chance\", c'est qu'elle est beaucoup plus dommageable pour la population que la taxe carbone envisag\u00e9e \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque par le gouvernement. \n\nL'imp\u00f4t est un recyclage national. Ce que nous payons en plus pour les carburants, l'Etat peut nous le rendre sous forme de travaux d'isolation, de pompes \u00e0 chaleur, de subventions aux v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques ou de pistes cyclables. \n\nQuand le prix du baril monte, cela appauvrit la France (en augmentant le d\u00e9ficit commercial) et personne ne reverra cet argent pour aider le pays \u00e0 s'organiser avec moins d'\u00e9nergie fossile. \n\nEt le paradoxe de l'affaire est que c'est l'un ou l'autre. En effet, le p\u00e9trole \u00e9tant \u00e9puisable (et le pic conventionnel pass\u00e9), si nous ne provoquons pas la baisse de son usage par des mesures qui sont fatalement contraignantes pour quelqu'un, il y aura p\u00e9riodiquement des envol\u00e9es de prix comme celle que nous vivons actuellement ou pire. \n\nIl y a donc d\u00e9carboner et d\u00e9carboner. La voie qui consiste \u00e0 attendre que \"y'en a plus\" enrichit les producteurs et laissera la population au d\u00e9pourvu. Celle qui consiste \u00e0 agir demandera des efforts \u00e0 plus court terme mais beaucoup moins \"plus tard\". \n\nIl reste une condition du succ\u00e8s essentielle : que le gouvernement sache faire la p\u00e9dagogie du probl\u00e8me (pour le moment il ne comprend pas que l'Europe est en d\u00e9clin subi sur le p\u00e9trole depuis 2007) et que toute mesure d'effort s'inscrive dans un plan d'ensemble per\u00e7u comme pertinent. 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d\u00e9sesp\u00e9r\u00e9, pour alerter sur la situation dramatique dans laquelle on est\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7027244365743804417,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un m\u00e9decin peut-il se contenter de poser le diagnostic sans recommander de traitement ? En mati\u00e8re de climat, c'est le mandat qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 donn\u00e9 au GIEC : \u00eatre \"policy relevant but not policy prescriptive\", c'est \u00e0 dire d\u00e9crire la situation, mais sans fournir de recommandation sur la voie \u00e0 suivre.\n\nQuand on y r\u00e9fl\u00e9chit bien, ce n'est pas infond\u00e9 : apr\u00e8s tout, se restreindre maintenant pour pr\u00e9server l'avenir n'est pas une d\u00e9cision scientifique mais un choix. Un m\u00e9decin, pour reprendre le parall\u00e8le, peut dire au fumeur qu'il prend des risques, et les lui d\u00e9crire par le menu, mais il ne peut pas physiquement le contraindre \u00e0 s'arr\u00eater (il y a 20 ans je m'\u00e9tais amus\u00e9 - enfin si l'on peut dire - \u00e0 comparer plus largement effet de serre et tabac, car il me semble qu'il y a beaucoup de points communs, et \u00e0 me relire je ne vois pas grand chose \u00e0 changer : https://bit.ly/3YjUeL9 )\n\nIl y a par ailleurs des cas de figure o\u00f9 la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la question initiale est oui, parce que m\u00eame en m\u00e9decine on change d'interlocuteur entre diagnostic et th\u00e9rapie. Le radiologue qui vous fait passer l'IRM ne sera pas celui qui vous proposera un traitement derri\u00e8re. La g\u00e9n\u00e9raliste \u00e0 qui vous dites que vous avez \"mal au dos\" n'est pas n\u00e9cessairement celle qui vous recommandera la solution au probl\u00e8me.\n\nEn mati\u00e8re de climat, cette difficult\u00e9 est encore plus grande : le physicien ou la biologiste d\u00e9crivant l'\u00e9volution du syst\u00e8me terre sous l'effet d'\u00e9missions croissantes n'a pas, du seul fait de son m\u00e9tier, de comp\u00e9tences techniques particuli\u00e8res pour proposer la mani\u00e8re de modifier l'organisation humaine et mat\u00e9rielle qui en est \u00e0 l'origine (m\u00eame si les journalistes adorent faire du \"tout en un\" en demandant au scientifique cuisin\u00e9 sur la situation ce qu'il faut faire \u00e0 partir de l\u00e0). \n\nLa question de savoir si des scientifiques doivent ou non \"descendre dans la rue\" pour mieux se faire entendre d\u00e9pend donc de l'effet recherch\u00e9 et du discours tenu.\n\nSi c'est pour militer pour que le diagnostic soit mieux connu, \u00e0 ce moment le/la scientifique est l\u00e9gitime, mais en pratique ce n'est pas d'abord la puissance publique qui est vis\u00e9e, mais d'abord la presse, puisque c'est d'elle dont d\u00e9pend le volume et la qualit\u00e9 de l'information diffus\u00e9e sur le sujet et son lien avec l'organisation du monde. \n\nQu'un(e) climatologue s'encha\u00eene aux grilles de l'Elys\u00e9e ou \u00e0 une centrale \u00e0 charbon fera-t-il des media plus prolixes et performants sur le climat ? Une fois que l'information est connue, la d\u00e9cision qui en d\u00e9coule n'est plus un probl\u00e8me scientifique.\n\nSi ce militantisme a pour objet de faire adopter des mesures particuli\u00e8res (taxe carbone, investissements dans le train, ou isolation des b\u00e2timents), alors la question doit \u00eatre pos\u00e9e sans invoquer la qualit\u00e9 de scientifique : il s'agit de savoir, quel que soit le m\u00e9tier de la personne concern\u00e9e, si bloquer un a\u00e9roport au nom du climat est plus ou moins immoral que de bloquer les trains au nom des retraites. 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(avec JILL) | LIMIT #episode1 on youtube.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmtCBulbID8" }, "description": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u2799 Cette cha\u00eene vit int\u00e9gralement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 vos dons ! https://linktr.ee/limit.media Secouer le monde de l'influence sur les questions li\u00e9es aux Limites Plan\u00e9taires ? C'est ce que nous allons tenter de faire dans cette nouvelle \u00e9mission : \"Bad Influence\"..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "LES INFLUENCEURS BR\u00dbLENT LE MONDE ? 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Promouvoir des chaussures, des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones, des s\u00e9jours \u00e0 l'\u00e9tranger ou des cosm\u00e9tiques, tout en sautant d'un avion \u00e0 l'autre pour les prises de vues, c'est un peu compliqu\u00e9 \u00e0 marier avec la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nC'est apr\u00e8s ce constat que Vinz Kant\u00e9 a bascul\u00e9 de la promotion publicitaire au militantisme climat (avec la cr\u00e9ation de la chaine Limit : https://lnkd.in/eGdVN6Vw ). Mais il y a un prix \u00e0 payer, au sens propre du terme : comme il le dit lui-m\u00eame dans cette vid\u00e9o, cela s'est accompagn\u00e9 d'une tr\u00e8s forte baisse de ses revenus.\n\nIl lui est r\u00e9cemment venu l'id\u00e9e d'aller dialoguer avec des \"coll\u00e8gues\" de l'influence (qui l'accepteraient) comment ils et elles voyaient la question environnementale dans leur m\u00e9tier (et si ca leur causait ou pas des \u00e9tats d'\u00e2me). \n\nLa premi\u00e8re qui a accept\u00e9 de se pr\u00eater au jeu s'appelle Jill (elle est belge, comme celui qui la passe sur le grill). Il en r\u00e9sulte un dialogue int\u00e9ressant entre 2 militant(e)s \u00e0 leur fa\u00e7on, l'un pass\u00e9 \"dehors\" (c'est \u00e0 dire devenu un influenceur \"d\u00e9di\u00e9 climat\"), l'autre rest\u00e9e \"dedans\" (elle fait toujours le m\u00eame m\u00e9tier, mais dit pouvoir ainsi parler \u00e0 des gens pas convaincus).\n\nUne partie de l'\u00e9change tourne donc autour de cette question \u00e9ternelle : pour changer le syst\u00e8me, est-ce plus efficace d'\u00eatre dedans ou dehors ? En fait c'est probablement un faux d\u00e9bat : il faut les deux. Depuis \"dehors\" on d\u00e9stabilise (et sans d\u00e9stabilisation personne ne cherche \u00e0 changer) ; depuis \"dedans\" on construit (phase indispensable apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9stabilisation). \n\nLa meilleure partie de la vid\u00e9o est \u00e0 la fin, avec tout d'abord des statistiques (dont je ne sais pas si elles sont repr\u00e9sentatives du m\u00e9tier) sur les diverses cat\u00e9gories de produits dont Jill a fait la promotion. En premi\u00e8re approximation, la quasi-totalit\u00e9 de ce qui permet \u00e0 cette influenceuse de gagner sa vie est constitu\u00e9 de produits ou services \"pas durables\" (sans que la d\u00e9finition en soit donn\u00e9e, mais quand on regarde la d\u00e9composition par cat\u00e9gorie de produits on arrive assez facilement \u00e0 cette conclusion).\n\nPuis vient le bilan carbone de la cobaye du jour : sans surprise, il est nettement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la moyenne, avion oblige, alors m\u00eame que l'int\u00e9ress\u00e9e consid\u00e9rait avoir fait beaucoup de chemin en installant des panneaux PV sur le toit, en limitant la viande et en minimisant ses d\u00e9placements du quotidien en voiture. \n\nCela illustre l'un des d\u00e9fis de la d\u00e9carbonation : familiariser le grand public avec la notion d'empreinte carbone et de \"contenu carbone\" d'un produit ou service. Car l\u00e0 comme ailleurs il n'y a pas de progr\u00e8s sans mesure !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7026974945939226624,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7026974946824192000,urn:li:activity:7026974946824192000,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 39, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7026974946824192000,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7026974946824192000,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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climatiques.\n\nMauvaise nouvelle : il ne fait que r\u00e9citer le texte de la Convention Climat (https://bit.ly/3XTBWAv ).\n\nDans ce document on peut en effet trouver plein d'affirmations qui disent \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s - voire explicitement - la m\u00eame chose, comme par exemple :\n\n\"(...) the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs\".\n\n\"(...) responses to climate change should [avoid] adverse impacts on [economic development], taking into full account the legitimate priority needs of developing countries for the achievement of sustained economic growth (...)\".\n\n\"Policies and measures to protect the climate system against human-induced change should [take] into account that economic development is essential for adopting measures to address climate change\"\n\nSi l'on traduit ces \u00a7 en fran\u00e7ais ordinaire cela donne :\n\n- les pays \"en d\u00e9veloppment\" (cat\u00e9gorie dans laquelle se rangent tous les pays hors OCDE pour faire simple,et donc les \u00e9tats producteurs d'hydrocarbures du Moyen Orient ainsi que la Chine ou l'Inde) s'estiment l\u00e9gitimement en mesure d'augmenter leur part des \u00e9missions sans sortir du cadre de cette Convention.\n\n- les politiques climat (partout) ne doivent pas avoir d'effet adverse sur \"le d\u00e9veloppement\" (en clair la croissance \u00e9conomique), \n\n- et m\u00eame que la croissance est un pr\u00e9requis de toute politique climat !\n\nIl y a \u00e9galement un \u00a7 de la Convention qui concerne directement les \u00e9tats p\u00e9troliers et qui affirme :\n\n\"Recalling also that States have (...) the sovereign right to exploit their own resources pursuant to their own (...) developmental policies, and the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States\"\n\nLes p\u00e9troliers ont donc le droit souverain d'extraire le p\u00e9trole de leur sous-sol en \"s'assurant que leurs activit\u00e9s ne causent pas de dommage \u00e0 l'environnement des autres pays\". Cette formulation est pour le moins ambigue. Pourquoi ne pas avoir \u00e9crit explicitement \"(...) the responsibility to ensure that activities (...) do not cause CLIMATE damage to other states\" ?\n\n\"ne pas causer de dommage \u00e0 l'environnement\" peut juste signifier d'\u00e9viter les mar\u00e9es noires...\n\nBref il n'y a pas lieu de s'\u00e9mouvoir tant que cela de cette d\u00e9claration, tr\u00e8s \"ONU compatible\" (rappelons que l'item N\u00b0 8 des Objectifs du D\u00e9veloppement Durable c'est la croissance \u00e9conomique : https://sdgs.un.org/goals ).\n\nL'enseignement qu'il faut en tirer est connu depuis longtemps : aucun miracle ne viendra des COP. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: A Ivry-sur-Seine, l'\u00e9coquartier Gagarine-Truillot veut acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer sur l'agriculture urbaine by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/pme-regions/ile-de-france/a-ivry-sur-seine-lecoquartier-gagarine-truillot-veut-accelerer-sur-lagriculture-urbaine-1898826" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A Ivry-sur-Seine, l'\u00e9coquartier Gagarine-Truillot veut acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer sur l'agriculture urbaine" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7025948733804544000,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La commune d'Ivry sur Seine, qui fait partie de la proche banlieue sud de Paris, d\u00e9marre une op\u00e9ration d'am\u00e9nagement qui comportera 1400 logements (h\u00e9bergeant donc environ 3000 personnes si l'on compte 2,2 personnes par logement). Mais il y aura aussi 2,3 hectares d'agriculture urbaine, permettant aux \u00e9lus de qualifier ce nouveau quartier \"d'agrocit\u00e9\". Est-ce que l'alimentation des habitants du lieu va vraiment significativement changer avec l'arriv\u00e9e d'une surface agricole \u00e0 proximit\u00e9 ?\n\nEn 2015 (la valeur est du m\u00eame ordre de grandeur aujourd'hui), la plan\u00e8te offrait \u00e0 chaque terrien 0,6 hectare de terre agricole (voir graphique en commentaire). Avec 2,3 hectares, on nourrit donc... 4 personnes. Certes, on ne va pas avoir sur cette parcelle \u00e0 la fois des poireaux, des patates, du bl\u00e9, une vache, des pommiers, des poules et du ma\u00efs pour nourrir en totalit\u00e9 4 personnes pendant que les autres habitants n'en verront rien.\n\nMais, quoi que l'on y mette, cela permettra d'\u00e9viter 1 pour mille des flux logistiques associ\u00e9s \u00e0 la nourriture des habitants du futur quartier. Dire dans l'article que cette op\u00e9ration va contribuer de mani\u00e8re discernable \u00e0 une \"logique de circuits courts\" est donc un tout petit peu survendre l'affaire !\n\nEst-ce \u00e0 dire que ce genre de chose ne sert \u00e0 rien ? Pas n\u00e9cessairement :\n- cela a\u00e8re l'espace\n- cela peut permettre \u00e0 des enfants (voire des adultes) de d\u00e9couvrir ce qu'est un mouton ou un plant de pomme de terre\n- cela peut permettre de rappeler qu'une ville n'existe pas sans cultures pour la nourrir, et que le changement climatique met donc en danger les villes par cet aspect l\u00e0 aussi.\n\nMais, tant qu'\u00e0 laisser un espace non b\u00e2ti dans une ville, on peut aussi y mettre des arbres (qui apaisent les habitants et qui \u00e9vitent un peu l'effet ilot de chaleur) et/ou un espace (non imperm\u00e9abilis\u00e9) pour que les enfants aillent se d\u00e9fouler, chose qui est plus difficile quand on doit \u00e9viter de pi\u00e9tiner des plants de salade ou de faire peur aux poules.\n\nUn tel espace ne peut donc avoir qu'une vertu p\u00e9dagogique ou r\u00e9cr\u00e9ative, mais, malheureusement, rien de plus. Par d\u00e9finition m\u00eame, une ville est une concentration d'individus qui se mettent au m\u00eame endroit, en pratique pour \u00e9changer et coop\u00e9rer plus facilement, et par construction m\u00eame c'est donc la cr\u00e9ation d'un d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre entre la production alimentaire locale et les bouches \u00e0 nourrir.\n\nUne ville doit donc fatalement importer sa nourriture (et tout le reste : v\u00eatements, mat\u00e9riaux de construction, objets pour le logement, etc) d'ailleurs, et plus une ville est grosse plus ses \"tentacules logistiques\" doivent aller chercher loin. C'est pour cela que dans un monde sobre en \u00e9nergie les grosses villes vont avoir du mal \u00e0 survivre : il leur faudra un hinterland bien plus important que ce que les possibilit\u00e9s de transport pourront alors fournir. \n\nDe ce fait, aucune \"agrocit\u00e9\" ne pourra, h\u00e9las, \u00eatre autre chose qu'une cit\u00e9 ordinaire avec une appellation vendeuse. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: D\u00e9carbonation : les PME et les ETI en ordre dispers\u00e9 by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/pme-regions/actualite-pme/decarbonation-les-pme-et-les-eti-en-ordre-disperse-1901217" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "D\u00e9carbonation\u00a0: les PME et les ETI en ordre dispers\u00e9" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7025499113316085760,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 1790, "length": 13, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Cl\u00e9ment", "lastName": "Ramos", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAJ_kowBTgD4YvBxiCLnHECQS6-R87bx81Q", "occupation": "Business strategy, Energy & Climate Change | Principal at Carbone 4", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:41915020", "entityUrn": 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On pourrait trouver cela paradoxal, dans la mesure o\u00f9 les plus grandes entreprises sont aussi, souvent, les plus mondialis\u00e9es et le plus financiaris\u00e9es, donc celles o\u00f9 les possibilit\u00e9s effectives de changer de mod\u00e8le sans y laisser une part significative de leur chiffre d'affaire apparaissent d'embl\u00e9e comme \"pas \u00e9videntes\".\n\nEn effet, \"se d\u00e9carboner\", en pratique, n'est pas juste remplacer les combustibles fossiles utilis\u00e9s en direct par des \u00e9nergies dites sans carbone (en fait il y en a toujours un peu) : il s'agit d'\u00eatre capable de survivre dans un monde o\u00f9 les \u00e9missions baissent globalement de quelques % par an tous les ans et d\u00e8s maintenant.\n\nCela signifie donc survivre alors que des mat\u00e9riaux, des circuits logistiques, des usages \u00e0 l'aval, des pouvoirs d'achat ou du temps libres seront de moins en moins disponibles. Et commet les entreprises qui ont le plus profit\u00e9 de ce que les combustibles fossiles nous ont amen\u00e9 sont aussi souvent les plus grosses, on pourrait penser qu'un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne de d\u00e9ni les \u00e9loigne le plus de regarder la question.\n\nIl n'emp\u00eache : selon cet article des Echos, 20\u00a0% des PME fran\u00e7aises ont calcul\u00e9 leur empreinte carbone, alors que ce pourcentage monte \u00e0 37\u00a0% lorsque toutes les tailles d'entreprises sont prises en compte.\n\nCertes la r\u00e9glementation explique beaucoup cela : ce calcul d'empreinte carbone est devenu obligatoire pour les entreprises de plus de 500 salari\u00e9s (et sous certaines conditions va l'\u00eatre pour plus de 250). Un autre \u00e9l\u00e9ment joue aussi : les PME comportent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement une proportion de cadres plus faible que les grands groupes, avec fatalement moins de personnes aptes \u00e0 consacrer du temps \u00e0 des sujets non imm\u00e9diatement op\u00e9rationnels.\n\nComme l'explique Cl\u00e9ment Ramos dans une interview adjacente \u00e0 cette article (https://bit.ly/3HGegKv ), pour les PME non financi\u00e8res c'est souvent un client important (priv\u00e9 ou public) qui est \u00e0 l'origine du premier bilan carbone, parce qu'il en fait une condition de son achat.\n\nPourtant cette approche poss\u00e8de une valeur ajout\u00e9e tr\u00e8s forte pour la raison suivante : les \u00e9missions viennent toujours de processus physiques ou chimiques. Tracer les \u00e9missions dont d\u00e9pend son entreprise, c'est doc inventorier les flux physiques (et parfois les processus chimiques) dont elle d\u00e9pend. \n\nC'est donc un premier pas indispensable pour comprendre combien il sera facile ou pas de survivre dans un monde qui va se d\u00e9carboner t\u00f4t ou tard, de gr\u00e9 pour cause de climat ou de force pour cause d'\u00e9puisement des combustibles fossiles et de for\u00eats \u00e0 couper. 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montagne est en p\u00e9ril" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7025160159395991552,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans une semaine c'est le d\u00e9but des vacances scolaires de f\u00e9vrier. Celles et ceux qui ont aujourd'hui la chance de profiter des sports d'hiver auront-il (ou leurs enfants) toujours la possibilit\u00e9 d'y partir \u00e0 l'avenir ?\n\nAvant l'\u00e9nergie abondante - disons avant guerre - les habitants des pays de montagne \u00e9taient parmi les plus pauvres d'un pays. La Suisse - largement compos\u00e9e de montagne - \u00e9tait elle-m\u00eame un des pays les plus pauvres d'Europe. \n\nEt puis l'arriv\u00e9e des \u00e9nergies fossiles a donn\u00e9 des cong\u00e9s pay\u00e9s aux m\u00e9nages (parce que les machines travaillent \u00e0 notre place), une voiture \u00e0 chacun d'entre eux, a permis l'augmentation de la production de b\u00e9ton et d'acier - indispensables pour \"am\u00e9nager\" les stations de ski, et enfin a permis de chauffer les b\u00e2timents et de permettre la douche chaude alors qu'il fait -15 \u00b0C dehors. \n\nEt voici que les zones recul\u00e9es de montagne sont devenus des \"paradis \u00e9conomiques\". 50% du PIB de la Savoie repose aujourd'hui sur le tourisme !\n\nBien sur, pour qu'il y ait des sports d'hiver, il faut aussi un hiver, ou plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment de la neige. D\u00e9sormais cette derni\u00e8re peut \u00eatre artificielle (on dit pudiquement \"de culture\" ;) ) mais cela demande quand m\u00eame qu'il fasse assez froid.\n\nLes sports d'hiver, c'est donc de la neige toujours l\u00e0 et de l'\u00e9nergie abondante. Mais les deux sont d\u00e9sormais menac\u00e9s : la neige par le r\u00e9chauffement climatique, qui va raccourcir - et supprimer \u00e0 basse altitude - la pr\u00e9sence de neige naturelle, voire artificielle s'il faut vraiment trop chaud, et l'\u00e9nergie par la d\u00e9crue des combustibles fossiles, parce que les moyens de transport collectifs pour aller en station ne sont pas souvent \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle.\n\nUn Samedi de f\u00e9vrier il va arriver 5000 \u00e0 10000 personnes dans une grosse station : il faudrait 6 \u00e0 12 TGV par station avec tous les vacanciers venant du m\u00eame endroit ou presque pour acheminer la m\u00eame quantit\u00e9 de monde ! \n\nL'avenir des stations de ski dans un monde sobre et sans neige est donc un gros point d'interrogation. Il n'est h\u00e9las pas sur que, pour les \u00e9lus des communes qui h\u00e9bergent ces activit\u00e9s (et pour les entreprises qui en vivent), il y ait partout une intense r\u00e9flexion sur la mani\u00e8re d'anticiper plut\u00f4t que de subir. Ca serait surement utile !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7025160159395991552,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7025160160046129153,urn:li:activity:7025160160046129153,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 91, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7025160160046129153,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7025160160046129153,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:7025160160046129153", "threadId": 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L'incendie climatique ne s'\u00e9teindra pas sans pompiers appropri\u00e9s !\n\nPour une fois ce post va donc concerner ce pour quoi Linkedin a \u00e9t\u00e9 con\u00e7u :) : des offres d'emploi, pour quelques entit\u00e9s et des postes en lien avec la question.\n\nA tout seigneur, tout honneur : on commence par la puissance publique. \n\nLa Direction G\u00e9n\u00e9rale du Tr\u00e9sor (Bercy) cherche :\n\ud83d\udc49Un(e) adjoint(e) au chef du p\u00f4le \"Z\u00e9ro carbone\" : https://bit.ly/407hmOD\n\ud83d\udc49Un(e) adjoint(e) chef du bureau Politique \u00e9conomique France en charge de la transition \u00e9cologique : https://bit.ly/3Hubtno\n\nLa Direction G\u00e9n\u00e9rale des Entreprises (Bercy) cherche :\n\ud83d\udc49 Un(e) directeur de projets \"D\u00e9carbonation, Comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 et D\u00e9veloppement de l'Industrie\" : https://bit.ly/3wOtoiN\n\ud83d\udc49Un(e) \u00e9conomiste \u2013 d\u00e9carbonation, comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 et comp\u00e9tences dans l'industrie : https://bit.ly/3H9vHBz\n\ud83d\udc49Un(e) \u00e9conomiste \u2013 transition \u00e9cologique des services marchands : https://bit.ly/4066Mra\n\ud83d\udc49Un(e) \u00e9conomiste \u2013 comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9, la transition \u00e9cologique et les comp\u00e9tences : https://bit.ly/3Y0TACj\n\ud83d\udc49Un(e) charg\u00e9(e) de mission Transition \u00e9cologique transports-d\u00e9veloppement nouvelles mobilit\u00e9s : https://bit.ly/3kIbYkZ\n\nFrance Strat\u00e9gie cherche :\n\ud83d\udc49 Un(e) chef(fe) de projet au secr\u00e9tariat permanent de la Plateforme RSE : https://bit.ly/3WHSiea\n\nAu Haut Conseil pour le Climat l'offre du jour est pour :\n\ud83d\udc49 Un(e) charg\u00e9(e) de mission agriculture et alimentation : https://bit.ly/3ZVjh8W\n\nPlus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, les minist\u00e8res et les collectivit\u00e9s cherchent de plus en plus sur ces sujets climat-\u00e9nergie, \u00e0 savoir :\n\ud83d\udc49Ici des dizaines d'offres \"d\u00e9carbonation\" : 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Chaque personne qui passe sur le grill dispose d'une heure et demie minimum pour s'exprimer, et globalement les questions sont assez pr\u00e9cises (les r\u00e9ponses parfois un peu moins !).\n\nQuand on regarde la liste des \"auditionn\u00e9s\", il est facile de constater que globalement c'est l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 qui concentre l'essentiel du \"temps d'antenne\". Certes Patrick Pouyann\u00e9 est pass\u00e9 \"dire bonjour\", mais globalement on ne parle pas d'hydrocarbures dans cette enceinte \u00e0 proportion de leur importance dans l'ensemble de notre syst\u00e8me \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.\n\nLors de cette audition de la patronne d'Engie, qui date du 6 d\u00e9cembre dernier, il a donc beaucoup \u00e9t\u00e9 question, sans surprise, de gaz. Qu'est-ce que que l'on y trouve ?\n\nD'abord, tr\u00e8s peu d'\u00e9changes ont port\u00e9 sur le pass\u00e9 de la DG d'Engie (qui a fait la quasi-totalit\u00e9 de sa carri\u00e8re dans l'amont p\u00e9trolier et gazier : https://bit.ly/3RfZwFd ) ou de son entreprise, alors que c'\u00e9tait le cas pour les autres \"auditionn\u00e9s\". Pourtant, avec le titre de cette commission d'enqu\u00eate, c'est bien du pass\u00e9 dont il est question ! Ont surtout \u00e9t\u00e9 abord\u00e9s les projets d'Engie et le potentiel de ceci ou cela \u00e0 l'avenir, ce qui est n\u00e9anmoins int\u00e9ressant quand m\u00eame, bien s\u00fbr.\n\nCatherine MacGregor affirme en particulier que le gaz fran\u00e7ais sera d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 \u00e0 20% en 2030 et totalement en 2045 (sans donner les volumes concern\u00e9s). Il y a 2 mani\u00e8res de faire du gaz d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 : la m\u00e9thanisation d'une part (par fermentation de biomasse renouvelable), et la production d'hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 d'autre part (ce dernier pouvant ensuite \u00eatre utilis\u00e9 tel quel ou associ\u00e9 \u00e0 du carbone biog\u00e9nique pour faire des combustibles gazeux ou liquides).\n\nL'hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 s'obtient soit par \u00e9lectrolyse avec de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e, soit par reformage du m\u00e9thane avec capture et s\u00e9questration de l'ensemble du CO2 \u00e9mis par le processus (voir https://bit.ly/3DgTyhr pour un rapide panorama).\n\nEn 2021, le seul gaz d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 vient de la m\u00e9thanisation et c'est 1% du gaz utilis\u00e9 en France (voir graphique en commentaire). La d\u00e9carbonation totale du gaz est donc un gros point d'interrogation qui, dans notre pays, fait l'objet de consid\u00e9rablement moins d'attention m\u00e9diatique que celle de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. \n\nDans cette audition, le biogaz est qualifi\u00e9 d'\u00e9nergie \"locale\". C'est vrai pour le v\u00e9g\u00e9tal qui finira dans le m\u00e9thaniseur. Mais ce dernier est fait de m\u00e9taux qui ne sont pas locaux, et les cultures ou r\u00e9sidus de culture utilis\u00e9s pour la m\u00e9thanisation auront utilis\u00e9 des engrais, pas locaux, ou des tracteurs, qui ne le sont pas plus...\n\nOn retrouve ici la question de l'imbrication des \u00e9nergies, qui rend tr\u00e8s difficile de savoir quel potentiel sera r\u00e9ellement accessible quand (et si) la \"production ENR\" ne b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera plus de la productivit\u00e9 industrielle globale amen\u00e9e par p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7024289539351310336,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7024289540320153600,urn:li:activity:7024289540320153600,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 43, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/conso-distribution/pourquoi-la-france-produit-de-moins-en-moins-de-viande-de-boeuf-1899504" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pourquoi la France produit de moins en moins de viande de boeuf" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7023553957666922497,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans les \u00e9missions d'origine agricole, l'un des postes importants en France est le m\u00e9thane \u00e9mis par le cheptel bovin. Ce m\u00e9thane vient de la fermentation des v\u00e9g\u00e9taux dans la panse de ces grosses bestioles, et ressort sous forme de rots pour l'essentiel.\n\nA cela il faut rajouter les \u00e9missions des cultures fourrag\u00e8res le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant (ma\u00efs, soja, c\u00e9r\u00e9ales, pois...). Ces cultures engendrent des \u00e9missions de CO2 pour la fabrication des engrais, et des \u00e9missions de N2O (un gaz \u00e0 effet de serre 265 fois plus puissant par kg que le CO2) lors de l'\u00e9pandage de ces derniers. Le r\u00e9sultat est que manger un kg de boeuf conduit \u00e0 l'\u00e9mission de plusieurs dizaines de kg d'\u00e9quivalent CO2.\n\nOn pourrait donc se r\u00e9jouir de la baisse du cheptel \u00e9voqu\u00e9e par cet article des Echos, expliquant que, depuis 2016, il y a une tendance en ce sens. Sauf que cette \u00e9volution n'est pas du tout pilot\u00e9e, dans un contexte o\u00f9 les \u00e9leveurs verraient leurs revenus maintenus avec des prix unitaires qui augmentent, et des m\u00e9thodes qu montent en gamme. \n\nElle est subie, \u00e0 cause :\n- du non renouvellement des exploitations (de fait \u00e9leveur est un m\u00e9tier tr\u00e8s contraignant et peu r\u00e9mun\u00e9r\u00e9)\n- de la hausse des couts (\u00e9nergie donc engrais, aliments...).\n\nMais en face les consommateurs n'ont pas modifi\u00e9 leurs habitudes alimentaires. La cons\u00e9quence est donc une hausse des importations, et par ailleurs une constance de l'empreinte carbone (pour \"la plan\u00e8te\", la situation n'a pas chang\u00e9). \n\nDans le m\u00eame temps, les consommateurs mangent de moins en moins de fruits et l\u00e9gumes, en particulier les jeunes : selon le pr\u00e9sident de l'Interprofession des fruits et l\u00e9gumes, les personnes de moins de 35 ans en mangent 4 fois moins que leurs grands parents (https://bit.ly/3Xwb7T5 ).\n\nIl y a donc la th\u00e9orie et il y a les faits. En th\u00e9orie, il faudrait que nous mangions plus de v\u00e9g\u00e9taux et moins de viande, et il faudrait que cela se fasse dans un contexte o\u00f9 les exploitants ne sont pas les premiers p\u00e9nalis\u00e9s par cette \u00e9volution. Rappelons que les exploitants agricoles, aujourd'hui, repr\u00e9sentent 2% du PIB, ce qui signifie que la production des denr\u00e9es agricoles brutes repr\u00e9sente de l'ordre de 2% du budget des m\u00e9nages. C'\u00e9tait plus proche du tiers il y a un si\u00e8cle !\n\nDans les faits, nous mangeons toujours autant de viande (et de plus en plus dans des produits transform\u00e9s) et de moins en moins de v\u00e9g\u00e9taux directement utilisables, et par ailleurs il y a de plus en plus de produits \"industriels\" (dont les boissons) et beaucoup trop de sucre.\n\nId\u00e9alement, il faudrait que le cheptel diminue dans un contexte bien diff\u00e9rent : que des \u00e9leveurs aussi nombreux g\u00e8rent des troupeaux plus petits et mieux valoris\u00e9s, et cela dans un contexte o\u00f9 la population modifie ses habitudes alimentaires pour que ce ne soient pas des importations qui prennent le relais (ce qui se passe aussi dans la volaille). Un sujet de plus o\u00f9 il faudrait se creuser un peu plus les m\u00e9ninges !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7023553957666922497,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7023553958300250112,urn:li:activity:7023553958300250112,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 189, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7023553958300250112,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7023553958300250112,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7023197815887548416,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Apr\u00e8s avoir jet\u00e9 \u00e0 la poubelle une partie de son parc de production \u00e9lectrique d\u00e9carbon\u00e9, l'Allemagne compte d\u00e9sormais sur celui \u00e0 construire \"chez les autres\" pour se fournir en hydrog\u00e8ne \"vert\", c'est-\u00e0-dire produit avec de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d'origine renouvelable.\n\nDans les diverses annonces que j'ai vues passer sur cette \"strat\u00e9gie\" allemande, il ne figure jamais la r\u00e9ponse aux questions suivantes, qui me semblent pourtant un peu centrales dans l'affaire :\n\n- le nucl\u00e9aire \u00e9tant hors jeu pour nos voisins, pourquoi serait-il plus facile de construire des \u00e9oliennes et des panneaux solaires hors d'Allemagne plut\u00f4t que dans ce pays pour disposer d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 bas carbone ?\n\n- les pays d'Afrique du Nord, ou d'autres \"bien insol\u00e9s\", ou \"bien vent\u00e9s\", devront d\u00e9velopper des ENR pour d\u00e9carboner leur propre mix \u00e9lectrique. Pourquoi les premi\u00e8res \u00e9oliennes et les premiers panneaux solaires au sein de ces pays devraient prioritairement servir \u00e0 d\u00e9carboner l'Allemagne plut\u00f4t que leur \u00e9conomie domestique ?\n\n- le rendement de chaine est faible : l'\u00e9lectrolyse \u00e0 partir d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 a un rendement de l'ordre de 70% et la liqu\u00e9faction + transport de H2 un rendement de l'ordre de 50% (et je ne connais pas celui de la \"regaz\u00e9ification\" de l'hydrog\u00e8ne). Si on passe par le m\u00e9thane ou l'ammoniac on \u00e9conomise les pertes de liqu\u00e9faction mais on perd l'\u00e9nergie n\u00e9cessaire \u00e0 la synth\u00e8se de CH4 ou NH3. Il faut donc doubler (et peut-\u00eatre plus) la production \u00e9lectrique par rapport \u00e0 une production locale utilis\u00e9e en direct. Pourquoi cela \"tiendrait\" physiquement et \u00e9conomiquement \u00e0 long terme, au surplus dans un monde o\u00f9 les bateaux transportant m\u00e9thane et ammoniac devront utiliser une partie de la cargaison comme carburant puisqu'il n'y a plus droit au p\u00e9trole ?\n\nSortir d'un d\u00e9bat sur l'\u00e9nergie demande toujours de manipuler des chiffres. Lorsqu'elle relaie les annonces gouvernementales, il serait souhaitable que la presse accompagne ces derni\u00e8res de calculs d'ordre de grandeur pour que l'on comprenne ce qui est r\u00e9aliste (ou pas) et \u00e0 quel horizon de temps pour les annonces en question. Si cela conduit \u00e0 prendre quelques jours pour publier un article, le gain en valeur ajout\u00e9e me semble largement justifier le d\u00e9lai.\n\nA tout le moins, la m\u00eame presse pourrait accompagner l'annonce des questions que cela pose. Cela \u00e9viterait, le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant, de perdre du temps \u00e0 courir derri\u00e8re des chim\u00e8res, ce qui, quand on est dans une course contre la montre, est un moyen garanti de faire son propre malheur." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7023197815887548416,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7023197816785129472,urn:li:activity:7023197816785129472,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 182, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7023197816785129472,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7023197816785129472,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, 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"En 2011, \u00e0 une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 le gaz russe ne faisait pas la une de l'actualit\u00e9, la France a interdit la fracturation hydraulique, mettant ainsi un terme \u00e0 toute exploitation potentielle du gaz dit de schiste sur notre sol. Avons nous \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque supprim\u00e9 une marge de manoeuvre importante pour continuer \u00e0 consommer du gaz ?\n\nC'est la question que j'ai trait\u00e9e dans ma chronique diffus\u00e9e hier matin sur RTL : https://bit.ly/3D5jqNe\n\nPour produire ce type de gaz il faut :\n\n- que le sous-sol comporte une roche m\u00e8re, c'est \u00e0 dire une formation g\u00e9ologique o\u00f9 se sont form\u00e9s des hydrocarbures liquides et gazeux (https://bit.ly/2RsaUS6 ). C'est le cas chez nous.\n\n- que des hydrocarbures y soient toujours pr\u00e9sents. Or, en France, une large partie a tr\u00e8s certainement migr\u00e9 vers les roches-r\u00e9servoir de la Mer du Nord et du bassin aquitain, et il n'y a plus beaucoup de gaz dans la roche m\u00e8re (ce que dit Patrick Pouyann\u00e9 lors d'une audition r\u00e9cente devant une commission d'enqu\u00eate parlementaire : https://bit.ly/3XQMSPd )\n\n- que la roche m\u00e8re soit fracturable (elle peut \u00eatre trop \"molle\" pour cela, comme en Pologne qui a essay\u00e9 pour de vrai)\n\n- qu'il y ait l'espace en surface pour mettre tous les quelques kilom\u00e8tres une installation qui ressemble \u00e0 ce qu'il y a sur la photo (avec les pistes d'acc\u00e8s qui vont avec et qui sont parcourues par des norias de camions pour acheminer l'eau et le sable, et \u00e9vacuer le gaz ou le p\u00e9trole) \n\n- comme la dur\u00e9e de vie d'un puits est faible, il faut qu'il y ait une industrie du forage apte \u00e0 faire en permanence beaucoup de trous (les USA forent environ 100.000 puits par an) qui n'existe pas en Europe\n\nUn dernier point est central : le droit. Aux USA, les ressources mini\u00e8res pr\u00e9sentes sous le sol appartiennent au propri\u00e9taire du sol. Il suffit donc \u00e0 ce dernier de toper avec un exploitant pour que les op\u00e9rations d\u00e9marrent. \n\nEn France, les ressources mini\u00e8res appartiennent \u00e0 l'Etat (j'ai bien peur d'avoir invent\u00e9 dans ma chronique une limite de 10 m\u00e8tres qui n'existe pas ! Heureusement ca ne change pas la suite). \n\nDe ce fait, si vous ou moi avons du gaz (ou du plomb, ou de l'or, ou du lithium) sous notre terrain, nous ne pouvons pas en confier l'extraction \u00e0 un op\u00e9rateur avec partage des recettes : c'est l'Etat qui en est propri\u00e9taire et qui seul peut en attribuer la concession \u00e0 une entreprise. Aux USA, en pareil cas le propri\u00e9taire du terrain devient mon\u00e9tairement riche, alors qu'en France il se fait exproprier !\n\nPour d\u00e9marrer une exploitation \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle de gaz de schiste chez nous, il faudrait donc une concession mini\u00e8re par puits ou ensemble de puits, avec \u00e0 chaque fois des recours possibles \u00e9videmment : il y en aurait pour plus d'une d\u00e9cennie. \n\nEn conclusion, m\u00eame si la fracturation hydraulique \u00e9tait r\u00e9-autoris\u00e9e, le \"gaz de schiste\" ne pourrait pas du tout compenser le d\u00e9clin des importations russes en Europe. Mais le gaz fossile, dont l'usage \u00e9met du CO2, doit dispara\u00eetre d'ici 2050, ce n'est pas vraiment un drame." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7022876020517031937,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7022876021402042368,urn:li:activity:7022876021402042368,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 65, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7022876021402042368,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7022876021402042368,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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Je viens de regarder cette courte vid\u00e9o (17 minutes). Ce format a le m\u00e9rite de traiter de questions d\u00e9tour\u00e9es, ce qui rend la critique (que j'esp\u00e8re constructive) circonstanci\u00e9e. Voici quelques commentaires.\n\n- sur le \"qui aurait pu pr\u00e9voir\" : \"on\" pouvait mettre dans le discours de voeux la pr\u00e9cision donn\u00e9e dans cette vid\u00e9o (que ce qui \u00e9tait impr\u00e9visible \u00e9tait la vitesse d'\u00e9volution) et qui levait toute ambiguit\u00e9. Y avoir pens\u00e9 sans l'avoir fait est hautement improbable et il reste toujours \u00e0 savoir pourquoi...\n\n- l'Elys\u00e9e a demand\u00e9 aux 50 sites industriels les plus \u00e9metteurs en France de diviser leurs \u00e9missions par 2 en 10 ans. Il s'agit essentiellement d'industrie lourde (acier, chimie, ciment). Cette derni\u00e8re a besoin de d\u00e9ployer des technologies nouvelles (hydrog\u00e8ne produit par \u00e9lectrolyse, capture et s\u00e9questration du CO2, recyclage chimique) pour baisser ses \u00e9missions de plus de 30% (voir le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise : https://bit.ly/3WqangU ). Cela demande que le pays fasse des investissements de son c\u00f4t\u00e9 (production \u00e9lectrique d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e pour l'\u00e9lectrolyse, organisation de la collecte de mat\u00e9riaux \u00e0 recycler pour les industriels...) qui doivent \u00eatre au rendez vous dans les temps impartis. Cela demande aussi une mani\u00e8re d'obliger les investissements des industriels pour y parvenir. Pour le moment le plan d'ensemble qui le garantisse n'est pas sur la table.\n\n- La \"taxe carbone aux fronti\u00e8res\" n'est pas une taxe (en pratique les importateurs devront acheter des quotas et le prix de ces derniers n'est pas connu \u00e0 l'avance), et surtout ce m\u00e9canisme ne s'appliquera pas, dans un premier temps, \u00e0 l'essentiel des produits import\u00e9s (il s'appliquera en gros aux \"commodit\u00e9s\" : acier, mat\u00e9riaux chimiques de base, ciment). \n\n- la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la question \"que faites vous pour le climat\" liste quelques actions dispers\u00e9es, mais ne donne aucune vision d'ensemble (existe-t-elle ?).\n\n- sur le plastique les mesures essentielles sont du c\u00f4t\u00e9 amont (moins d'emballages, plus de de recyclage, etc) \n\n- la for\u00eat doit augmenter sa capacit\u00e9 comme puits tout en contribuant \u00e0 plus d'usages aval, et cela dans un contexte d'adversit\u00e9 climatique croissante. Organiser cela demande des comp\u00e9tences et un plan d'ensemble qui est pour le moment sont plut\u00f4t inexistants c\u00f4t\u00e9 Etat. Ca ne se r\u00e9sume pas \u00e0 \"planter des arbres\".\n\n- la r\u00e9ponse sur les ZFE \u00e9voque des \"solutions\" qui ne seront pas d\u00e9ploy\u00e9es \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle - voire ne le seront jamais - au moment de l'installation de ces zones. \n\nPersonne ne travaillant seul, pas plus notre pr\u00e9sident que les autres, il est dommage qu'aucune r\u00e9ponse ne parle de la mise \u00e0 niveau de l'\u00e9quipe \u00e9lys\u00e9enne (https://bit.ly/2TcaAU9 ) sur ces sujets. 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"height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1526301071435?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=Rq3d8xruf-AjJIxUGFu7BqWSyQztUW2r6v0qdSkqnuk", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1526301071435?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=wh6XyNIs4bp8DCawGp3mG3-isCp60iNvO_vs_2N54mk", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E03AQHcVgn7JKsYxA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "NpaerVzhTxeLZGu9AM0b8w==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Dans le premier chapitre de \"Dormez tranquilles jusqu'en 2100\", j'avais fait remarquer que la \"crise des subprime\" avait suivi 3 ans de stagnation de la production de p\u00e9trole accompagn\u00e9e d'une envol\u00e9e de son prix, et que la d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration du PIB am\u00e9ricain avait pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 la crise financi\u00e8re et non l'avait suivie.\n\nJ'en avais tir\u00e9 l'hypoth\u00e8se que cette crise financi\u00e8re \u00e9tait un sympt\u00f4me - comme la crise de 1973 - d'une rupture de pente sur l'approvisionnement p\u00e9trolier occidental. En 1973, le monde industriel - essentiellement compos\u00e9 de l'OCDE \u00e0 une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 les BRICS ne pesaient vraiment pas lourd dans l'\u00e9conomie mondiale - avait vu la hausse de son approvisionnement p\u00e9trolier passer brutalement de 8% par an \u00e0 une stagnation puis une hausse beaucoup plus modeste (l\u00e9g\u00e8rement sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 1% par an).\n\nCela avait mis un tr\u00e8s gros coup de frein \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique, et d\u00e9clench\u00e9 le d\u00e9but d'un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne qui n'a fait que prendre de l'ampleur depuis : l'endettement.\n\nDans un article beaucoup plus fouill\u00e9 sur le plan \u00e9conomique que ce que j'avais \u00e9crit \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque, Matthieu Auzanneau (par ailleurs directeur du Shift Project dans le civil :) ) revient sur cette \"crise des subprime\" et documente pourquoi, selon lui, elle est doublement d\u00e9termin\u00e9e par un probl\u00e8me d'approvisionnement p\u00e9trolier. \n\nLe premier facteur d\u00e9clencheur est le choc de 1973, qui a ralenti la croissance et engendr\u00e9 une augmentation constante des dettes dans les \u00e9conomies occidentales apr\u00e8s 1973. Ce que soutient Matthieu Auzanneau - et beaucoup d'autres sp\u00e9cialistes du p\u00e9trole avec lui - est que le choc de 1973 est une cons\u00e9quence directe du pic p\u00e9trolier conventionnel am\u00e9ricain de 1970, \u00e0 une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 les USA produisaient un quart de l'or noir mondial (\u00e0 la m\u00eame \u00e9poque l'URSS c'est 15% et l'Arabie Saoudite c'est 8%). \n\nLe deuxi\u00e8me facteur d\u00e9clencheur est le pic p\u00e9trolier conventionnel mondial en 2008. C'est sur cet \u00e9pisode qu'il s'attarde dans son analyse, qui est convergente avec celle d'autres sp\u00e9cialistes du lien entre p\u00e9trole et \u00e9conomie, comme par exemple Michel LEPETIT (chercheur associ\u00e9 au Laboratoire interdisciplinaire des \u00e9nergies de demain - https://bit.ly/3XLS5Yk ).\n\nMatthieu Auzanneau passe par une observation de l'\u00e9volution de l'inflation, du taux directeur de la banque centrale, ou encore du d\u00e9ficit commercial, qu'il relie de mani\u00e8re argument\u00e9e \u00e0 l'\u00e9volution de la production de p\u00e9trole. \n\nDans un travail fouill\u00e9 du Shift Project publi\u00e9 il y a un an (https://bit.ly/3R8e1uV ), nous avions soulign\u00e9 que les 16 principaux producteurs de p\u00e9trole de la plan\u00e8te \u00e9taient probablement pass\u00e9s par leur pic de production en 2018. \n\nSi les m\u00eames causes produisent les m\u00eames effets \u00e0 l'avenir, cela signifie que le paysage \u00e9conomique et financier de demain pourrait bien \u00eatre plus proche de la collection de chocs et de crises qu'un \"retour \u00e0 la normale\", et ce quelles que soient nos aspirations sur les retraites..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7022131881886248960,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7022131882947407872,urn:li:activity:7022131882947407872,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 28, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7022131882947407872,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7022131882947407872,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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sociaux. \n\nDans notre pays (et si les r\u00e9ponses ont \u00e9t\u00e9 honn\u00eates :) ) ce ne sont donc pas ces r\u00e9seaux qui constituent le premier vecteur d'information.\n\nAlors qu'un autre graphique (en commentaire) montre que la plus grande cote de confiance est accord\u00e9e aux scientifiques qui travaillent sur la question, il est dommage de ne pas avoir mis dans la liste des r\u00e9ponses les sites des institutions scientifiques.\n\nMais l\u00e0 o\u00f9 ca devient farce, c'est que les media sont par ailleurs, juste avant les r\u00e9seaux sociaux, les modes d'informations que la population consid\u00e8re comme les moins fiables ! Seulement 16% de la population d\u00e9clare en effet leur faire un peu ou beaucoup confiance de mani\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9rale.\n\nCe grand \u00e9cart entre habitudes (puisque nous continuons \u00e0 utiliser les media) et confiance n'est pas une nouveaut\u00e9. La bonne question est de savoir pourquoi c'est une constante que la population aille s'informer essentiellement aupr\u00e8s d'entit\u00e9s \u00e0 qui elle n'accorde que peu de cr\u00e9dit, alors que d\u00e9sormais les organismes \u00e9metteurs d'information le font en direct via leurs sites internet.\n\nTentons une explication : le media vient \u00e0 vous, alors que d'utiliser internet demande d'aller \u00e0 l'information (et donc de savoir naviguer dans un univers plus complexe). En fait, ce que dit probablement cet \u00e9cart, c'est que la population souhaite des interm\u00e9diaires qui feront le tri et la vulgarisation pour elle, mais n'est pas satisfaite de la mani\u00e8re dont les personnes qui assurent aujourd'hui cette fonction s'acquittent de la t\u00e2che l'essentiel du temps. \n\nD'o\u00f9 peut venir ce d\u00e9faut de confiance contre des media qui sont par ailleurs utilis\u00e9s parce que c'est \"normal\" d'\u00e9couter l'information qui vient \u00e0 vous ?\n\nTentons \u00e0 nouveau une hypoth\u00e8se : nous avons tendance \u00e0 caler notre niveau de confiance sur la plus mauvaise surprise v\u00e9cue et non sur la moyenne de ce qui se passe : il suffit donc d'une fois o\u00f9 nous avons pris un media en flagrant d\u00e9lit d'incoh\u00e9rence, ou de m\u00e9connaissance d'un sujet que nous connaissons bien, et ensuite nous deviendrons m\u00e9fiants de fa\u00e7on habituelle.\n\nL'antidote \u00e0 cela est donc qu'un media ne d\u00e9roge jamais \u00e0 quelques r\u00e8gles simples :\n- ne pas traiter une information quand il n'y a pas le temps pour cela\n- bien comprendre qui est l\u00e9gitime pour s'exprimer sur quoi (\u00e9vite les incoh\u00e9rences)\n- \u00eatre transparent sur ce que l'on sait et ce que l'on ne sait pas\n- ne pas confondre les faits et les opinions (y compris la sienne), \n- ne pas confondre la ligne \u00e9ditoriale avec la r\u00e9gie publicitaire.\n\nUne d\u00e9mocratie qui fonctionne bien a besoin de media qui fonctionnent bien. 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avant Fukushima - et non \u00e0 Merkel, contrairement \u00e0 ce qui est souvent dit ou \u00e9crit), d'aucuns s'\u00e9taient \u00e9mus que cela pourrait conduire \u00e0 recourir plus longtemps au charbon, conduisant en cela \u00e0 des \u00e9missions de CO2 suppl\u00e9mentaires - outre d'autres petits \u00e0-c\u00f4t\u00e9 de cette \u00e9nergie : particules fines (des milliers de morts pr\u00e9matur\u00e9s en Europe chaque ann\u00e9e), NOx, pollution des eaux de surface, montagnes de cendres (des milliers de tonnes par jour pour les plus grosses centrales) qui contiennent des m\u00e9taux lourds et des substances toxiques (arsenic, fluor...), et \u00e9videmment destruction totale des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes sur les dizaines de km2 d'emprise de l'excavation de lignite.\n\nA l'\u00e9poque d\u00e9j\u00e0, il \u00e9tait possible d'observer depuis le ciel les vastes \u00e9tendues (plusieurs kilom\u00e8tres de c\u00f4t\u00e9) des mines \u00e0 ciel ouvert de lignite, comme celle de Garzweiler, pr\u00e8s de Cologne : https://bit.ly/3Xlzfra (il y en a d'autres pas loin, dont une encore plus grande \u00e0 Hambach : https://bit.ly/3QNlhMo ), dont la cr\u00e9ation a conduit \u00e0 l'\u00e9vacuation d\u00e9finitive d'un peu moins de 100.000 personnes, avec destruction volontaire de leur habitat.\n\nMais tout cela n'aurait pas du arriver avec la substitution du charbon par le gaz, diront d'autres. A cela on peut r\u00e9pondre 2 choses : \n\n- cela serait encore moins arriv\u00e9 si l'Allemagne avait conserv\u00e9 son nucl\u00e9aire. Si on regarde l'\u00e9volution de la puissance pilotable chez nos voisins, elle est rest\u00e9e \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s constante depuis 2002 : https://bit.ly/3w9Y4KH. Il y avait 22,4 GW de nucl\u00e9aire \u00e0 cette \u00e9poque et 20 GW de lignite. Aujourd'hui il reste 4 GW de nucl\u00e9aire : \u00e0 la place il pourrait ne rester que 2 GW de lignite... et l'agrandissement de L\u00fctzerath ne serait pas n\u00e9cessaire.\n\n- la d\u00e9pendance aux russes \u00e9tait un pari, et l'histoire nous a quand m\u00eame enseign\u00e9 que nos relations avec notre grand voisin n'ont pas toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 tranquilles. Ne pas envisager que ca puisse tourner vinaigre est quand m\u00eame gentiment impr\u00e9voyant.\n\nEn Europe, quand un \u00e9tat n'est pas assez disciplin\u00e9 sur le plan de l'\u00e9quilibre des comptes publics, il est th\u00e9oriquement susceptible de se voir infliger une amende par le Conseil, allant jusqu'\u00e0 0,5% du PIB (soit environ 10 milliards pour la France). Plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, lorsque l'on entend \u00eatre r\u00e9ellement s\u00e9rieux sur le respect d'une obligation, il y a des sanctions en cas de non respect qui sont d'autant plus s\u00e9v\u00e8res que l'obligation \u00e0 respecter est importante.\n\nSi l'Europe \u00e9tait r\u00e9ellement s\u00e9rieuse sur le CO2, il y aurait un syst\u00e8me de sanctions pr\u00e9vu pour non respect d'un plafond d'\u00e9missions de CO2 par un pays donn\u00e9. Et cette sanction pourrait \u00eatre major\u00e9e lorsqu'un pays a fait l'exact inverse de ce qu'il pouvait physiquement faire pour respecter l'obligation." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7021435584514523136,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7021435585357586432,urn:li:activity:7021435585357586432,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 138, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7021435585357586432,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7021435585357586432,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": 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Apr\u00e8s 2 mois d'automne (novembre et d\u00e9cembre), les trois quarts des nappes phr\u00e9atiques fran\u00e7aises ont encore tr\u00e8s soif. En effet, m\u00eame s'il a plu apr\u00e8s la fin octobre, il y a eu un tel d\u00e9ficit accumul\u00e9 avant que la situation d'ensemble reste d\u00e9ficitaire sur une large partie du pays, parfois tr\u00e8s fortement. \n\nAu surplus, fin octobre la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation \u00e9tait encore active \u00e0 cause d'un temps tr\u00e8s chaud, et les premi\u00e8res pluies de novembre ont donc \u00e9t\u00e9 alimenter les plantes et non les nappes. Il a aussi fallu humidifier des sols tr\u00e8s secs, ce qui a aussi utilis\u00e9 une partie de l'eau tomb\u00e9e qui n'est pas all\u00e9e jusqu'aux nappes.\n\nEnfin, lorsque les \u00e9pisodes de pr\u00e9cipitations ont \u00e9t\u00e9 intenses, une fraction a ruissel\u00e9 directement vers les rivi\u00e8res puis la mer, parce que l'infiltration dans un sol tr\u00e8s sec est plus difficile que dans un sol d\u00e9j\u00e0 un peu humidifi\u00e9. \n\nGlobalement, ce n'est pas maintenant que cette faiblesse du niveau des nappes est g\u00eanante. La v\u00e9g\u00e9tation est en dormance, l'agriculture ne pr\u00e9l\u00e8ve pas, et il reste de quoi alimenter les r\u00e9seaux d'eau potable le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant (https://lnkd.in/gG9eZM8 ), surtout que ce n'est pas non plus l'\u00e9poque de l'arrosage des pelouses et du remplissage des piscines.\n\nC'est au retour de la saison chaude que cela risque de poser probl\u00e8me. Si d'ici l\u00e0 la recharge n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 bonne (et donc qu'il n'y a pas eu suffisamment de ces d\u00e9pressions qui nous am\u00e8nent pluie et parfois vent, ce que nous appelons aujourd'hui \"mauvais temps\"), cela signifie que l'on abordera l'\u00e9t\u00e9 prochain - et ses possibles vagues de chaleur, puisque chaque \u00e9t\u00e9 offrira h\u00e9las l'occasion de battre le record pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent - avec moins d'eau pour l'agriculture, et pour les arbres quand ces derniers ont des racines qui vont jusqu'\u00e0 la nappe.\n\nL'\u00e9volution future d'une nappe est typiquement un processus qui a du mal \u00e0 \u00eatre mod\u00e9lis\u00e9 dans le cadre d'un climat qui se r\u00e9chauffe. Il est possible de faire des projections sur les pr\u00e9cipitations globales (sur une large zone) de l'ann\u00e9e, voire sur l'augmentation des \u00e9pisodes pluvieux intenses (moins bons pour l'infiltration dans le sol, \u00e0 pr\u00e9cipitations \u00e9gales, que des \u00e9pisodes continus), mais ensuite chaque g\u00e9ologie du sol est particuli\u00e8re, adjectif qui s'applique aussi aux usages locaux (qui d\u00e9pendent beaucoup des cultures et de la nature de la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation).\n\nPour autant, les tendances sont claires : il ne faudra pas venir se demander \"qui aurait pu pr\u00e9voir ?\". Il faut donc essayer au maximum d'imaginer ce que l'avenir peut nous r\u00e9server, pour limiter au mieux le risque de manquer de cette pr\u00e9cieuse ressource qu'est l'eau. Actuellement, faisons nous vraiment le maximum en ce sens ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7021023430669955073,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7021023431466864640,urn:li:activity:7021023431466864640,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 143, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7021023431466864640,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7021023431466864640,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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qui a ouvert la voie, en proposant une rubrique \"crise climatique\" (https://lnkd.in/e8q7-6rG ) accessible d\u00e8s la homepage, et apr\u00e8s Radio France qui a pris l'engagement de former l'ensemble de sa r\u00e9daction aux enjeux climatiques, c'est au tour du groupe Sud-Ouest de publier une charte dans laquelle il affirme \"Les \u00e9diteurs du Groupe Sud Ouest s\u2019engagent \u00e0 inscrire les enjeux climatiques et environnementaux au c\u0153ur de leur production \u00e9ditoriale, en organisant des espaces de prise de parole et d\u2019\u00e9change constructifs, en documentant les enjeux locaux et en mettant en relief les connaissances scientifiques, avec rigueur, objectivit\u00e9 et ind\u00e9pendance\".\n\nSuivent 15 engagements, qui incluent la mise en place d'un conseil scientifique, la formation de la r\u00e9daction, la mise en place d'un bilan carbone et d'actions de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 (y compris num\u00e9rique), l'origine du papier, ou encore le contenu publicitaire.\n\nEn lisant attentivement cette charte, on comprend \u00e9videmment que le Diable sera dans les d\u00e9tails, et en particulier dans l'ambition effective associ\u00e9e \u00e0 chacune des actions. On peut faire un bilan carbone et agir ensuite pour faire baisser ses \u00e9missions de 1% par an, de 5% par an, ou... les faire cro\u00eetre \"moins que plus\", en visant juste une baisse par exemplaire imprim\u00e9 ou diffus\u00e9 sur le serveur, tout en ayant un plan d'augmentation de la diffusion !\n\nSur la publicit\u00e9, l\u00e0 aussi toutes les nuances de gris sont possibles : Sud Ouest dit vouloir proposer des espaces gratuits aux associations, mais on peut imaginer des syst\u00e8mes plus dissuasifs pour la promotion de produits ou services lorsqu'ils vont avec des pressions plus importantes sur l'environnement. \n\nAvoir un encart pour promouvoir l'avion, une voiture, un mode de commerce ou des produits alimentaires \"\u00e9lev\u00e9s en carbone\" couterait donc plus cher que la promotion du march\u00e9 du coin, des v\u00e9los ou des livres.\n\nPour la formation, l\u00e0 aussi il y a un monde entre la demi-heure que le gouvernement a royalement accord\u00e9e au climat et les 150 heures minimum qui sont pr\u00e9conis\u00e9es pour les \u00e9tudiants du sup\u00e9rieur par The Shift Project. \n\nIl faut donc voir cette charte comme un premier pas \u00e9minemment bienvenu. Ce qu'il en adviendra ensuite dans les faits d\u00e9pendra essentiellement des personnes qui vont la mettre en oeuvre (\u00e0 commencer par le patron !), de l'accueil qui lui sera fait en interne et de la pression que mettront les salari\u00e9s, et \u00e9videmment de la r\u00e9ponse du lectorat, puisqu'un m\u00e9dia priv\u00e9 reste une entreprise commerciale qui a du mal \u00e0 agir si cela fait fuir les gens qui consomment l'information.\n\nPour favoriser le fait que toutes les \"parties prenantes\" soutiennent l'\u00e9volution, il sera utile d'avoir un syst\u00e8me d'indicateurs ad\u00e9quats et de r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement en rendre compte. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7293133745184405373)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtl.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Transports : Jean-Marc Jancovici explique l'importance de se mettre au v\u00e9lo by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/on-refait-la-planete-rtl/7900225118-transports-jean-marc-jancovici-explique-l-importance-de-se-mettre-au-velo" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Transports : Jean-Marc Jancovici explique l'importance de se mettre au v\u00e9lo" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7020064088613351424,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Tou(te)s en selle ! Apparu \u00e0 la fin du 19\u00e8 si\u00e8cle, le v\u00e9lo a rapidement vu son emploi augmenter, et en 1925 il offrait en moyenne \u00e0 un fran\u00e7ais autant de km parcourus par jour que l'automobile (alors nettement moins r\u00e9pandue qu'actuellement, c'est clair !).\n\nMais depuis 1940 son usage plafonne. Aujourd'hui, un habitant du pays fait en moyenne plus de km en avion par an qu'en v\u00e9lo ! Pourtant d\u00e9velopper son usage procure de nombreux b\u00e9n\u00e9fices :\n- moins de CO2\n- moins de pollution\n- moins d'argent \u00e0 d\u00e9penser\n- depuis qu'il y a une assistance \u00e9lectrique, apte \u00e0 transporter enfants et courses, et aussi \u00e0 monter les c\u00f4tes, sans trop souffrir\n- en univers \"congestionn\u00e9\" (ville ou p\u00e9riurbain) pas beaucoup moins rapide qu'une voiture\n- meilleur pour la sant\u00e9\n\nVu comme cela, on se demande vraiment pourquoi ce mode de transport ne repr\u00e9sente pas l'essentiel des km parcourus pour la mobilit\u00e9 dite du quotidien (travail, courses, \u00e9cole etc), qui repr\u00e9sente 2/3 des km faits annuellement en voiture, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement tr\u00e8s peu remplie (1,1 personne en taux moyen). O\u00f9 est le probl\u00e8me alors ?\n\nLe premier d'entre eux est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l'ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 potentiellement ressentie par le ou la cycliste qui chemine au milieu de \"beaucoup plus lourd que son v\u00e9lo\". La cl\u00e9 du d\u00e9veloppement du v\u00e9lo s'appelle donc des pistes cyclables. Et des pistes exclusivement cyclables ! \n\nLes itin\u00e9raires mixtes (pi\u00e9tons et v\u00e9los) n'ont pas plus de pertinence que si on autorisait les pi\u00e9tons \u00e0 descendre sur la chauss\u00e9e dans les rues o\u00f9 la vitesse est limit\u00e9e \u00e0 30. Comme je l'\u00e9voque dans cette chronique, il n'y a rien de commun entre un(e) cycliste allant \u00e0 son travail \u00e0 25 ou 30 km/h et un pi\u00e9ton qui d\u00e9ambule avec enfants ou chien, ou en regardant son t\u00e9l\u00e9phone...\n\nLe deuxi\u00e8me d'entre eux est la possibilit\u00e9 de garer son v\u00e9lo \u00e0 destination (qui peut \u00eatre le lieu d'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 un autre moyen de transport) ou chez soi sans se le faire voler. \n\nLe 3\u00e8 probl\u00e8me est que, l'automobile coutant plus cher, les constructeurs de voiture gagnent beaucoup d'argent que ceux de v\u00e9los, et donc emploient plus de monde. Cela en fait des interlocuteurs plus \u00e9cout\u00e9s des pouvoirs publics... qui tendent \u00e0 maintenir le syst\u00e8me.\n\nOn pourrait ajouter un 4\u00e8 \u00e9l\u00e9ment : la voiture est un objet de statut social. Il faudrait qu'une jolie paire de mollets le devienne un peu plus !\n\nLa voirie n'est pas pay\u00e9e par les automobilistes mais par les contribuables. Un cycliste l'est autant qu'un conducteur d'un engin d'une tonne ou plus. A l'heure de l'imp\u00e9rieuse d\u00e9carbonation, il serait tout \u00e0 fait justifi\u00e9 que la collectivit\u00e9 - qui fonctionne avec les imp\u00f4ts - assure aux utilisateurs de la petite reine autant de facilit\u00e9s \u00e0 se d\u00e9placer qu'aux utilisateurs d'engins motoris\u00e9s d'une tonne, \u00e9lectriques ou pas. \n\nIl n'y a plus qu'\u00e0 !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7020064088613351424,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7020064089167036416,urn:li:activity:7020064089167036416,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 316, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7020064089167036416,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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chaleur est la grande oubli\u00e9e" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7019787229342396417,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le projet de loi sur les \u00e9nergies renouvelables se concentre essentiellement sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. De fait, dans l'expos\u00e9 des motifs du projet initialement d\u00e9pos\u00e9 au S\u00e9nat (253 pages ! https://lnkd.in/eq2amZEk ), il est surtout question d'\u00e9olien et de photovolta\u00efque, et un peu de m\u00e9thanisation. \n\nPourtant, dans notre pays, 45% de l'\u00e9nergie sert \u00e0 avoir de la chaleur, et aujourd'hui cette derni\u00e8re est essentiellement fossile. Dans ces usages on va trouver :\n\n- le chauffage des logements et des b\u00e2timents dits tertiaires (en gros tout ce qui n'est ni logements, ni b\u00e2timents industriels : bureaux, commerces, h\u00f4pitaux, \u00e9coles, piscines, casernes, mus\u00e9es...)\n\n- la production d'eau chaude sanitaire dans ces m\u00eames b\u00e2timents, et plus marginalement la cuisson\n\n- la chaleur industrielle, importante dans les mat\u00e9riaux de base (m\u00e9taux, ciment, chimie de base, papier), dans la chimie de sp\u00e9cialit\u00e9 et dans l'agroalimentaire \n\nC'est le gaz qui est la premi\u00e8re source de chaleur en France (dans l'autre sens 55% du gaz sert au chauffage). Par les temps qui courent, il n'est peut-\u00eatre pas idiot de se pencher sur la mani\u00e8re de le remplacer par de la chaleur renouvelable. \n\nFont partie de cette cat\u00e9gorie la biomasse solide (bois buche et granul\u00e9s) ou gazeuse (biogaz), la g\u00e9othermie profonde (on extrait la chaleur du sous-sol pour chauffer des b\u00e2timents), les pompes \u00e0 chaleur (puisant les calories dans l'air ou dans le sol, et qui peuvent aussi servir pour des usages industriels \u00e0 haute temp\u00e9rature), et le solaire thermique (pour l'eau chaude sanitaire ou le chauffage avec un plancher chauffant).\n\nCes solutions sont matures, elles substituent directement du gaz ou du fioul l'essentiel du temps (et quand elles substituent de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ca sera toujours ca de gagn\u00e9 pour la mobilit\u00e9 \u00e9lectrique ou l'\u00e9lectrification d'usages industriels), ne posent pas de probl\u00e8me particulier d'approvisionnement en m\u00e9taux, et elles sont \u00e9conomiquement \u00e9quivalentes aux alternatives fossiles.\n\nQuestion biodiversit\u00e9, le tableau est plus nuanc\u00e9 : pour les pompes \u00e0 chaleur, le solaire thermique et la g\u00e9othermie, les atteintes sont faibles. Ces dispositifs occupent peu d'espace en plus du b\u00e2ti existant. C'est plus d\u00e9licat pour la biomasse : il faut \u00e9videmment \u00e9viter la d\u00e9forestation, ou la perte de biodiversit\u00e9 en rempla\u00e7ant les for\u00eats diversifi\u00e9es par des plantations monosp\u00e9cifiques d'esp\u00e8ces \u00e0 croissance rapide.\n\nMais globalement il y a beaucoup de potentiel et peu d'effets pervers \u00e0 leur d\u00e9ploiement. Pourtant, la priorit\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 surtout donn\u00e9e aux ENR \u00e9lectriques. Est-ce si pertinent ?\n \nIncidemment il y a une autre source de chaleur d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e qui n'int\u00e9resse personne : celle issue du refroidissement des centrales nucl\u00e9aires, soit environ 600 milliards de kWh, soit environ ce qui est utilis\u00e9 en France en \u00e9nergie fossile pour le chauffage et l'eau chaude sanitaire ! 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l'auteur sur sources diverses) : \u00e0 1860. En effet, le CO2 issu des combustibles fossiles est \"r\u00e9cent\", mais avant il y a eu de la d\u00e9forestation, qui a longtemps \u00e9t\u00e9 le terme dominant dans l'ensemble des \u00e9missions humaines.\n\nSi l'on regarde juste le CO2 issu des \u00e9nergies fossiles (graphique en commentaire), en supposant que l'on arr\u00eate la d\u00e9forestation (ce qui pour le moment est h\u00e9las une vue de l'esprit mais finira par arriver, au plus tard quand il n'y aura plus rien \u00e0 couper !), la r\u00e9ponse fait un peu moins peur : on parle de 1940. \n\nPour \u00eatre \"compatible 2\u00b0C\", il faudra donc a minima ramener en 27 ans les \u00e9missions fossiles moyennes par personne \u00e0 ce qu'elles \u00e9taient il y a 80 ans. En d'autres termes, il va falloir \"descendre\" 3 fois plus vite que nous sommes \"mont\u00e9s\", sachant que \"monter\" ne demande aucune contrainte alors que descendre oui. Ce n'est clairement pas au train o\u00f9 vont les choses que nous allons y arriver.\n\nDans le graphique sur le CO2 fossile seul on constate aussi que les \u00e9missions par personne ont brutalement arr\u00eat\u00e9 de monter au moment des chocs p\u00e9troliers (et en tenant compte de la d\u00e9forestation il y a eu une baisse pendant 30 ans).\n\nCela illustre de mani\u00e8re directe que ces chocs n'ont pas juste \u00e9t\u00e9 une grosse variation de prix \u00e0 cause d'un blocus : ils ont mat\u00e9rialis\u00e9 le premier ralentissement physique de l'\u00e8re industrielle par d\u00e9faut de ressources. La production de p\u00e9trole ne pouvait juste plus physiquement augmenter de 8% par an (surtout que les USA venaient de passer le pic conventionnel en 1970...). La limite physique \u00e0 l'amont s'appliquera de plus en plus si celle \u00e0 l'aval n'est pas g\u00e9r\u00e9e.\n\nLa grosse bosse des ann\u00e9es 2000 correspond \u00e0 l'essor de la Chine (et de son charbon). Cet essor a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 un peu moins de 10 ans apr\u00e8s le Sommet de la Terre de 1992, o\u00f9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 sign\u00e9e la Convention Climat. Pour le moment cette derni\u00e8re a \u00e9t\u00e9 mise KO debout par nos aspirations consum\u00e9ristes et \u00e9conomiques..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7019403759420088320,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7019403760263122944,urn:li:activity:7019403760263122944,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 98, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7019403760263122944,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7019403760263122944,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7019063850654216192,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il n'y a pas que sur terre que 2022 a \u00e9t\u00e9 chaude : pour l'ensemble de l'oc\u00e9an mondial, l'ann\u00e9e pass\u00e9e a \u00e9t\u00e9 la plus chaude depuis le d\u00e9but des relev\u00e9s. \n\nOn le dit peu souvent, mais en fait 90% de l'\u00e9nergie suppl\u00e9mentaire amen\u00e9e \u00e0 la surface de la plan\u00e8te par le suppl\u00e9ment d'effet de serre r\u00e9chauffe les oc\u00e9ans et non la surface de la terre. C'est un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne lent mais massif, qui engendre derri\u00e8re des cons\u00e9quences en cascade :\n\n- l'\u00e9l\u00e9vation de temp\u00e9rature est une agression en tant que telle pour de nombreux organismes marins (par exemple les coraux dont 15% sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 morts, et \u00e0 2\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement global les coraux tropicaux auront probablement disparu pour l'essentiel)\n\n- cela affaiblit le puits oc\u00e9anique car l'eau chaude dissout moins bien le CO2 que l'eau froide (c'est pour cela que dans le pass\u00e9 l'\u00e9l\u00e9vation de temp\u00e9rature pr\u00e9c\u00e8de l'augmentation du CO2 : lorsque la modification des param\u00e8tres astronomiques de la terre r\u00e9chauffait climat, l'oc\u00e9an se mettait ensuite \u00e0 d\u00e9gazer du CO2 - qui incidemment amplifiait encore le r\u00e9chauffement)\n\n- l'eau chaude \u00e9tant moins dense, cela stratifie l'oc\u00e9an : l'eau chaude surnage en surface et ne communique plus avec les eaux plus profondes, plus froides. Cela diminue la teneur en oxyg\u00e8ne de l'eau de l'oc\u00e9an profond et donc la vie marine associ\u00e9e\n\n- l'eau se dilate quand elle chauffe : plus l'oc\u00e9an chauffe vite et plus son niveau monte vite. En retour cette hausse du niveau de la mer et ce r\u00e9chauffement de l'eau d\u00e9stabilisent de mani\u00e8re acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e les langues terminales des glaciers des calottes polaires qui du coup se d\u00e9sagr\u00e8gent plus vite, en produisant plus rapidement des icebergs qui font encore plus monter le niveau de l'eau...\n\n- une eau de surface plus chaude favorise l'apparition de ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes cycloniques plus intenses (ce qui se constate d\u00e9j\u00e0)\n\nBref que l'oc\u00e9an chauffe vite n'est pas juste une affaire de temp\u00e9rature de l'eau quand on va se baigner. Comme pour d'autres aspects du changement climatique, cela va engendrer des discontinuit\u00e9s qui, \u00e0 mesure que le temps passera, seront de plus en plus amples et peu sympathiques. \n\nIl reste peu de temps pour bien comprendre les risques et organiser au mieux la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 pour ne pas trop en souffrir...\n" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7019063850654216192,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7019063851266535424,urn:li:activity:7019063851266535424,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 45, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7019063851266535424,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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hausse dans l'exploration et l'extraction p\u00e9troli\u00e8re" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7018690368690958336,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A votre avis, quel est le premier crit\u00e8re qui pilote le volume d'investissements dans le p\u00e9trole ? Si vous pensez - ou esp\u00e9rez - que c'est les politiques \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques de long terme des \u00e9tats, la r\u00e9ponse risque de vous d\u00e9cevoir : depuis plusieurs d\u00e9cennies, le premier d\u00e9terminant du nombre de centaines de milliards de dollars (car c'est l'ordre de grandeur) investi chaque ann\u00e9e dans ce que l'on appelle \"l'amont p\u00e9trolier\" (en pratique l'exploration et la construction des infrastructures de production) est... le prix du baril.\n\nQuand celui-ci est au plus bas, comme par exemple en 2020, les investissements baissent tr\u00e8s fortement. Quand le prix monte fortement (2014 a \u00e9t\u00e9 embl\u00e9matique) alors les investissements font de m\u00eame. En effet, quand le prix est haut, les p\u00e9troliers arrivent \u00e0 rentabiliser des projets qui ne le sont pas quand le prix est bas, ce qui explique cette \"r\u00e9ponse\" des investissements.\n\nC'est particuli\u00e8rement vrai dans le shale oil (non \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans l'article des Echos) o\u00f9 la production suit d'assez pr\u00e8s l'investissement (forage et fracturation). \n\nCette r\u00e9ponse des investissements au prix est un des \u00e9l\u00e9ments \u00e0 prendre en compte pour savoir si, pour consommer moins de p\u00e9trole, \"il suffit d'attendre qu'il y en ait moins\", ou si c'est utile de baisser la consommation par des r\u00e8glementations et des taxes.\n\nCar de fait nous approchons du peak oil et donc il va y en avoir moins. Mais si nous laissons le march\u00e9 g\u00e9rer la d\u00e9crue, ce \"moins\" se traduit par des envol\u00e9es des prix, donc des investissements additionnels, et donc... un peu plus que \"moins\".\n\nSi la d\u00e9crue est pilot\u00e9e \u00e0 l'aval (quotas de consommation sur les voitures, camions et avions, sur les fours industriels etc) \u00e0 ce moment c'est tout l'inverse qui se passe : la pression sur la demande maintient des prix bas, ce qui \u00e9vite cet effet rebond li\u00e9 \u00e0 un surplus d'investissements quand c'est le march\u00e9 qui r\u00e9gule. Et, cerise sur le g\u00e2teau pour tous les gens qui n'aiment pas les p\u00e9troliers : ces derniers gagnent moins d'argent qu'avec une p\u00e9nurie faisant grimper les prix :)\n\nAjoutons \u00e0 cela que de se contenter du \"peak oil+peak gas+peak coal\" pour limiter notre consommation de fossiles ne permet pas de tenir la limite des 2 \u00b0C. La d\u00e9crue p\u00e9troli\u00e8re est d\u00e9j\u00e0 amorc\u00e9e en Europe, malheureusement elle va \u00e0 la fois trop vite pour pr\u00e9server une \u00e9conomie qui ne se r\u00e9invente pas et pas assez vite pour pr\u00e9server le climat..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7018690368690958336,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7018690369332625409,urn:li:activity:7018690369332625409,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 68, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7018690369332625409,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7018690369332625409,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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Ils montent, ils descendent... mais, depuis les chocs p\u00e9troliers, la part des d\u00e9penses \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques dans les budgets des m\u00e9nages est rest\u00e9e tr\u00e8s stable. Il faudra voir si 2022 nous rapproche de 1974, car les donn\u00e9es ne sont pas encore disponibles au minist\u00e8re de la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, d'o\u00f9 sont issus ces chiffres (et plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment de https://lnkd.in/eXsAPG2k ).\n\nDonner \u00e0 manger et \u00e0 boire \u00e0 nos 1000 esclaves \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques planqu\u00e9s sous le capot de la voiture, \u00e0 ceux qui peuplent cuisines et salles de bains, \u00e0 ceux qui, dans la cave, assurent le chaud et parfois le froid, et encore \u00e0 ceux qui nous \u00e9clairent ou nous permettent de communiquer coute donc un peu moins de 10% de ce que nous gagnons. \n\nBien sur, cette facture n'inclut pas les esclaves \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques des usines et des transports de marchandises, mais avouez que, quand m\u00eame, pour le service rendu, c'est donn\u00e9 !\n\nEt, depuis 1970, o\u00f9 l'\u00e9nergie coutait aussi 8% de ce que gagnaient nos parents ou grands-parents, l'arm\u00e9e d'esclaves m\u00e9caniques n'a cess\u00e9 de grossir : \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque, pour 8% t'avais presque rien. Il y avait quasiment 3 fois moins de voitures, peu d'\u00e9lectrom\u00e9nager, pas de chauffage central partout, peu de t\u00e9l\u00e9visions, et bien \u00e9videmment pas d'internet ou de box TV.\n\nA l'avenir, nous allons devoir devenir sobres. Est-ce \u00e0 dire qu'avec une consommation divis\u00e9e par 2 ou 3, la part de l'\u00e9nergie dans le budget sera divis\u00e9e par le m\u00eame facteur ? Notre logique de d\u00e9penses \u00e9tant g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement budg\u00e9taire (on \u00e9pargne ce que l'on doit \u00e9pargner et on d\u00e9pense tout le reste), il n'est pas \u00e9vident de comprendre pourquoi on se mettrait tout d'un coup \u00e0 consommer beaucoup moins alors que nous en aurions les moyens.\n\nSi notre facture d'\u00e9nergie nous coute moins cher parce que nous \u00e9conomisons de l'\u00e9nergie, qu'allons nous faire du surplus ? 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7017863646001123328,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a la th\u00e9orie, et il y a la pratique. La th\u00e9orie, c'\u00e9tait par exemple le rapport du Shift Project \"Mobiliser l'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur pour le climat\" (https://lnkd.in/dNVfiau ), o\u00f9 nous proposions un certain nombre de choses pour que l'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur soit mis en coh\u00e9rence avec la d\u00e9carbonation en particulier, et les limites plan\u00e9taires en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral.\n\nMais en pratique c'est une autre paire de manches. Que faire des enseignements qui ne sont pas ou plus \"raccord\" avec la nouvelle donne ? On peut penser \u00e0 l'\u00e9conomie par exemple, qui int\u00e8gre tr\u00e8s imparfaitement la limite sur les ressources et le r\u00f4le central de l'\u00e9nergie et des machines dans les raisonnements. \n\nQue faire des enseignants qui seront trop nombreux dans un monde qui se d\u00e9carbone ? On peut alors penser aux \u00e9tudes de langues ou d'art par exemple : un monde plus sobre sera un monde avec moins de flux internationaux, et il ne sera peut-\u00eatre plus utile d'avoir autant de traducteurs, d'interpr\u00e8tes ou de guides pour touristes internationaux, et partant plus autant d'\u00e9tudiant(e)s faisant juste des \u00e9tudes de langues \u00e0 l'Universit\u00e9 (mais les langues en \"culture g\u00e9n\u00e9rale\" resteront importantes !).\n\nLa question n'est donc pas seulement d'ajouter un cours avec les bases physiques et biologiques d\u00e9crivant le monde dans lequel nous sommes entr\u00e9s : il faut que le reste de ce qui est enseign\u00e9 ne soit pas en contradiction, et pr\u00e9pare par ailleurs \u00e0 des m\u00e9tiers qui ne le seront pas plus.\n\nEt l\u00e0, nous n'y sommes pas encore. Dans un pays o\u00f9 la libert\u00e9 acad\u00e9mique est un principe tr\u00e8s fort (je ne discute pas du bien fond\u00e9 !), et o\u00f9 les enseignants universitaires sont inamovibles (m\u00eame remarque), r\u00e9orienter le paquebot ne se fera pas rapidement, et la question est m\u00eame pos\u00e9e de savoir ce qui pourrait d\u00e9clencher un changement au bon rythme (c'est \u00e0 dire pour demain matin).\n\nUne autre difficult\u00e9 est aussi soulign\u00e9e en fin de l'article du Monde : pour un enseignant chercheur, modifier le contenu de son cours, c'est potentiellement modifier sa recherche, et cela signifie que, pendant un temps, il ne publie plus (ou plus autant). Avec la sacralisation des classements (dont Shanghai) bas\u00e9s sur le nombre de publications annuelles, rien que cela peut \u00eatre un obstacle tr\u00e8s difficile \u00e0 surmonter pour les universit\u00e9s qui voudraient \"changer de direction\".\n\nIl est donc probable que l'innovation va avoir du mal \u00e0 venir \"d'en haut\". Pour le moment elle vient \"d'\u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9\", par exemple avec des cours en ligne que beaucoup d'\u00e9tudiant(e)s peuvent suivre en plus de leur cursus, ou d'\u00e9tablissements \"partis de rien\" (comme le Campus de la Transition cit\u00e9 dans cet article).\n\nIl y aura aussi de l'innovation partie \"d'en bas\", \u00e0 savoir les initiatives individuelles de certain(e)s enseignant(e)s, dont il faut esp\u00e9rer qu'elles inspireront le plus vite possible leurs coll\u00e8gues.\n\nCar, au sens propre chaque \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9sormais, il y a le feu !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7017863646001123328,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7017863646768726017,urn:li:activity:7017863646768726017,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 128, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"text": "Economies d'\u00e9nergie\u00a0: la chasse au gaspi ne fait que commencer" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7017569096808431616,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A l'\u00e9poque o\u00f9 le monde \u00e9tait 100% renouvelable, il \u00e9tait moins pilotable qu'aujourd'hui. Il d\u00e9pendait fortement de la biomasse, du vent, du soleil et de l'eau, et ces 4 composantes sont elles-m\u00eames tributaires, de fa\u00e7on tr\u00e8s r\u00e9active (vent par exemple) ou plus lente (biomasse), des conditions du moment.\n\nA l'\u00e9poque, la marine \u00e0 voile avan\u00e7ait quand il y avait du vent, et on ne savait pas exactement \u00e0 quelle heure (ni parfois o\u00f9 !) on toucherait terre.\n\nLes moulins \u00e0 vent tournaient aussi quand il y avait du vent, et il valait mieux avoir un petit stock de farine sous la main pour ne pas risquer de manquer de pain en cas de panne \u00e9olienne un peu prolong\u00e9e. \n\nLes moulins \u00e0 eau \u00e9taient plus r\u00e9guliers, mais, lors d'une ann\u00e9e s\u00e8che ou d'un hiver tr\u00e8s froid (gel), ils pouvaient aussi s'arr\u00eater de tourner. La biomasse pour les animaux \u00e9tait disponible l'\u00e9t\u00e9 et il fallait faire des stocks pour l'hiver... en priant pour qu'ils soient suffisants.\n\nL'\u00e8re des combustibles fossiles a compl\u00e8tement chang\u00e9 la donne, et nous a habitu\u00e9s \u00e0 un monde o\u00f9 la disponibilit\u00e9 d'un produit ou service ne d\u00e9pend en rien des \u00e9l\u00e9ments ext\u00e9rieurs. \n\nAujourd'hui, au sens litt\u00e9ral du terme, nous ne voyons pas pourquoi il serait n\u00e9cessaire qu'il y ait du vent ou du soleil pour qu'un v\u00eatement soit assembl\u00e9 ou transport\u00e9, un aliment mis \u00e0 notre disposition, une classe d'histoire ou une op\u00e9ration de l'appendicite ait lieu, un bus avance ou un coup de fil puisse \u00eatre pass\u00e9.\n\nLa \"chasse au gaspi\" - c'est \u00e0 dire l'av\u00e8nement de l'\u00e8re des \u00e9conomies d'\u00e9nergie impos\u00e9es par insuffisance d'offre - et le retour en force des productions renouvelables non pilotables vont probablement nous remettre, un peu ou beaucoup, dans ce monde moins pr\u00e9visible, moins abondant et plus volatil. \n\nAinsi il a \u00e9t\u00e9 question que les \u00e9coles soient ferm\u00e9es ou une partie du r\u00e9seau t\u00e9l\u00e9phonique inop\u00e9rant les jours sans vent (puisque ce sont les jours, en hiver, o\u00f9 il y a potentiellement un probl\u00e8me d'approvisionnement). Pour le moment cette \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 n'est pas arriv\u00e9e (un temps d\u00e9pressionnaire est plut\u00f4t doux et venteux ; bonne conjonction !) mais son \u00e9vocation montre bien que le monde qui nous attend n'a pas vraiment \u00e9t\u00e9 pens\u00e9 \u00e0 l'avance c\u00f4t\u00e9 consommation.\n\nIl va falloir se faire \u00e0 l'id\u00e9e que tous les kWh ne sont pas \u00e9quivalents. Les combustibles fossiles n'ont pas juste amen\u00e9 des kWh en grande quantit\u00e9 : ils les ont amen\u00e9s \u00e0 la demande. S'organiser sans cette caract\u00e9ristique demandera beaucoup d'efforts : c'est ce que l'on appelle la \"flexibilit\u00e9\". Sa description pr\u00e9cise, et son caract\u00e8re plus ou moins indolore, restent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement un point (tr\u00e8s) faible des sc\u00e9narios pour l'avenir." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7017569096808431616,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7017569097689223168,urn:li:activity:7017569097689223168,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 106, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7017569097689223168,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7017569097689223168,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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Vid\u00e9o originale : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMbKODJqb7k Site de Jancovici : https://jancovici.com Page Facebook :..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Jancovici : R\u00e9chauffement climatique : bient\u00f4t la fin des saisons ? - Yves Calvi - 02/01/2023" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7017105537964113923,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Faut-il parler de \"d\u00e9r\u00e8glement\", de \"crise\", de \"d\u00e9rive\", ou encore une autre expression pour caract\u00e9riser l'\u00e9volution climatique ?\n\nRestera-t-il des hivers dans un monde qui se r\u00e9chauffe ?\n\nDoit-on encore utiliser le mot de \"normale\" en mati\u00e8re de m\u00e9t\u00e9o ou de climat, puisque l'\u00e9volution que nous avons mise en route enclenche une modification d\u00e9sormais permanente du syst\u00e8me climatique, qui ne permet pas le retour \u00e0 un \u00e9tat stable ? (or, ce que l'on qualifie de \"normale\" est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement un \u00e9tat stable).\n\nAllons-nous pouvoir g\u00e9rer la question climatique sans que les \"\u00e9lites\" ne se forment de mani\u00e8re approfondie pour en cerner les contours ? (chose que manifestement la personne qui a r\u00e9dig\u00e9 le discours de voeux de Macron n'a pas bien faite :) )\n\nVoici quelques unes des questions abord\u00e9es dans cette br\u00e8ve apparition dans la matinale de RTL. Malgr\u00e9 une quantit\u00e9 de \"heu\" qui ferait sauter en l'air n'importe quel conseiller en communication, j'esp\u00e8re que les r\u00e9ponses apport\u00e9es seront utiles \u00e0 un auditoire qui a aussi droit \u00e0 Pascal Praud 2 heures par jour.\n\nEn particulier, il me semble essentiel que la population comprenne bien que \"l'\u00e9tat normal\" n'existe plus. Car c'est cela qui justifie que, alors m\u00eame que nous allons devoir consacrer plus de moyens \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation, nous commencions aussi \u00e0 redoubler d'efforts en mati\u00e8re \"d'adaptation au changement climatique\".\n\nIl faut donc consacrer des comp\u00e9tences et des moyens physiques \u00e0 nous pr\u00e9munir au mieux contre des \u00e9volutions adverses qui ne sont pas encore l\u00e0, mais dont nous savons avec certitude qu'elles vont arriver.\n\nCe qui vient de se produire rappelle qu'un jour l'avenir devient le pr\u00e9sent. Les seuls qui ne sont pas surpris sont les mod\u00e9lisateurs du climat et celles et ceux qui pr\u00eatent attention \u00e0 leurs propos. Mais l'important est que ce soit le reste de la population qui comprenne ce qui se passe et en tire les cons\u00e9quences pour l'action." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7017105537964113923,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7017105538584829952,urn:li:activity:7017105538584829952,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 66, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7017105538584829952,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7017105538584829952,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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Pour savoir ce que ce terme inspirait \u00e0 nos concitoyens, l'IFOP est aller les cuisiner un peu (cela s'appelle un sondage), et en a retir\u00e9 une analyse de 86 pages (pas en libre acc\u00e8s mais que l'on m'a gentiment fournie quand m\u00eame :) ). \n\nIl y figure notamment le graphique ci-dessous, qui r\u00e9sume ce \u00e0 quoi peut servir la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique selon les personnes interrog\u00e9es. On y d\u00e9couvre avec \u00e9tonnement (enfin pour moi) que la moiti\u00e9 de la population (environ) pense que la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique peut contribuer au manque de certaines \u00e9nergies ou au d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique. \n\nCela sugg\u00e8re que ce mot apparu de fa\u00e7on r\u00e9cente dans le discours politique est tr\u00e8s loin d'\u00eatre correctement compris par nos concitoyens, du moins si la bonne compr\u00e9hension est la baisse volontaire de la consommation des individus. \n\nAu demeurant, une question sur \"qui doit s'engager en faveur de la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9\", pos\u00e9e un peu plus loin, met les entreprises devant les citoyens, alors que, \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence, la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 est bien une affaire de consommation finale...\n\nIl est vraisemblable que, pour l'heure, cette notion de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 est aussi confondue avec celle d'efficacit\u00e9. Les questions pos\u00e9es dans l'\u00e9tude de l'IFOP sur les actes auxquels les personnes sont pr\u00eates m\u00e9langent du reste un peu les deux (choisir des appareils plus efficaces et isoler son logement se retrouve est dans la m\u00eame liste que moins utiliser sa voiture et moins prendre l'avion). \n\nEnfin il est probable que \"les gens\" n'ont pas du tout les ordres de grandeur en t\u00eate sur l'effort \u00e0 faire. Beaucoup de r\u00e9pondants consid\u00e8rent que de r\u00e9duire sa consommation d'\u00e9nergie de 10% est ce qu'il faut viser, mais la \"sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 des 2\u00b0C\" nous am\u00e8nera tr\u00e8s au-del\u00e0 de cette valeur !\n\nIl ne suffira donc pas de brandir ce mot de \"sobri\u00e9t\u00e9\" pour d\u00e9gager un consensus et d\u00e9crire qui devra faire quoi. Pour parvenir \u00e0 cet objectif, il faudra donner corps \u00e0 ce terme sous forme... d'un plan. 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Contribuer \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation vous tente ? Vous n'avez pas la possibilit\u00e9, comme Bruno Le Maire, de le faire en faisant r\u00e9diger un projet de loi sur l'industrie \"verte\" (https://bit.ly/3Cq4rgK ) ?\n\nDevenez auteur de BD \u00e0 succ\u00e8s (c'est possible m\u00eame si on ne s'y attend pas, je peux en t\u00e9moigner :) ), ou rivalisez avec \"Don't Look Up\" ! Pour agir, il faut en avoir envie, et la fiction, en \"donnant \u00e0 voir\", peut \u00eatre un moyen de susciter cette envie. \n\nLes Shifters - l'association des b\u00e9n\u00e9voles soutenant et contribuant aux travaux du Shift Project - organisent donc un concours de (tr\u00e8s) courts m\u00e9trages et de (tr\u00e8s) courtes bandes dessin\u00e9es autour du th\u00e8me \"un lundi en 2050\". 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Alors, si ce petit d\u00e9fi vous tente, lancez vous !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7016472206020853760,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7016472206754906113,urn:li:activity:7016472206754906113,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 164, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7016472206754906113,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7016472206754906113,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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difficile pour les entreprises de pr\u00e9senter leurs produits comme \"neutres\". Pas totalement impossible (cela aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 l'id\u00e9al : https://lnkd.in/dGTt6Zs), mais plus difficile : l'entreprise qui affirme qu'un de ses produits est neutre ne pourra le faire que si elle a :\n- fait un bilan des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre du produit ou service concern\u00e9 sur l'ensemble de son cycle de vie.\n- \u00e9tabli et publi\u00e9 la trajectoire de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de CO2 associ\u00e9es au produit ou au service, avec des objectifs quantifi\u00e9s \u00e0 10 ans\n- pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 la nature et la description des projets utilis\u00e9s pour acheter des cr\u00e9dits (la \"compensation\").\n\nCela peut sembler un peu anecdotique de se concentrer sur la communication des entreprises au lieu de se concentrer sur leurs proc\u00e9d\u00e9s, leurs mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, les usages de leurs produits, etc.\n\nSauf que, dans un monde qui doit se d\u00e9carboner, le premier juge de paix auquel confronter les proc\u00e9d\u00e9s, mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et usages, c'est justement leur \"contenu en carbone\". 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}, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Climat. Ces universit\u00e9s qui interdisent \u00e0 leurs chercheurs de prendre l\u2019avion by courrierinternational.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.courrierinternational.com/article/climat-ces-universites-qui-interdisent-a-leurs-chercheurs-de-prendre-l-avion" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Climat. Ces universit\u00e9s qui interdisent \u00e0 leurs chercheurs de prendre l\u2019avion" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7015751552820772864,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "De m\u00e9moire (car je n'ai plus la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en t\u00eate), un professeur d'universit\u00e9 suisse a (ou avait avant covid) une empreinte carbone li\u00e9e \u00e0 sa profession d'environ 10 tonnes de CO2 par an. En cause : essentiellement les voyages en avion associ\u00e9s aux colloques qui deviennent l'ordinaire des universitaires quand ils se sont fait un nom dans leur sp\u00e9cialit\u00e9.\n\nL'\u00e9tude qui donnait ce r\u00e9sultat indiquait \u00e9galement que cette empreinte carbone \"a\u00e9rienne\" \u00e9tait croissante avec le statut : elle d\u00e9marrait \u00e0 une tonne pour un doctorat ou post-doctorant (ma m\u00e9moire me fait d\u00e9faut sur ce point pr\u00e9cis) pour finir \u00e0 10 tonnes en haut de l'\u00e9chelle (qui en Suisse s'appelle \"professeur ordinaire\" !).\n\nC'est donc une initiative int\u00e9ressante que celle de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 d\u2019Utrecht, aux\u00a0Pays-Bas, qui, apparemment, va interdire \u00e0 son personnel de prendre l'avion sur des distances inf\u00e9rieures \u00e0 700 km.\n\nL'Universit\u00e9 de Neufch\u00e2tel, elle, demande \u00e0 ce que l'avion ne soit utilis\u00e9 que si il n'y a pas d'alternative en train de moins de 10 heures. Notre gouvernement fait p\u00e2le figure avec ses 2h30 et l'exclusion d'un grand nombre de liaisons du dispositif !\n\nCette initiative commence \u00e9videmment par le plus facile, parce que, m\u00eame si 10 heures c'est long, ca reste g\u00e9rable sur une journ\u00e9e, et par ailleurs dans un train un chercheur peut travailler. Certes si son m\u00e9tier est de faire des manips sur des plantes ou des tests de r\u00e9sistance des mat\u00e9riaux il va avoir du mal \u00e0 le faire en se d\u00e9pla\u00e7ant, mais rien ne l'emp\u00eache de traiter son courrier, r\u00e9diger des comptes-rendus, en lire d'autres....\n\nMalheureusement, dans les vols a\u00e9riens, ce qui \u00e9met beaucoup ce sont les long-courrier : en gros, les \u00e9missions d'un vol sont proportionnelles au kilom\u00e9trage (pas tout \u00e0 fait parce que le d\u00e9collage consomme proportionnellement plus, mais en premi\u00e8re approximation on peut retenir ca).\n\nEt pour les long-courrier l'alternative devient moins confortable. Le train pour traverser la Russie ou les USA c'est plusieurs jours d'affil\u00e9e, et le bateau pour traverser l'Atlantique une semaine. R\u00e9duire les long courrier, qui est donc une mesure \"forte\" pour diminuer l'empreinte carbone de la recherche, signifie en pratique r\u00e9duire les colloques, ou les passer en visioconf\u00e9rence (ca va faire grincer quelques dents !).\n\nIl n'emp\u00eache que la recherche, comme le reste de nos activit\u00e9s, devra fatalement \u00e9voluer un jour ou l'autre dans un monde o\u00f9 la mobilit\u00e9 longue distance sera moins facile. Il serait souhaitable que tout nouveau projet qui d\u00e9marre soit compatible, \u00e0 la fois sur le fond et sur le mode op\u00e9ratoire du projet, avec ce cahier des charges." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7015751552820772864,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7015751553600880640,urn:li:activity:7015751553600880640,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 224, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7015751553600880640,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7015751553600880640,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est l'\u00e9poque des voeux ! M\u00eame si seul le prononc\u00e9 fait foi, j'ai attentivement lu le texte mis en ligne par l'Elys\u00e9e. \n\nOn y lit \"Qui aurait imagin\u00e9 [il y a un an] que (...) nous\u00a0\u00a0aurions \u00e0 affronter (...) une effroyable crise\u00a0\u00a0\u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, une crise alimentaire mena\u00e7ante, (...) la vague d\u2019inflation, (...) ou la crise climatique\u00a0?\"\n\nQui ? Sur l'\u00e9nergie, tous ceux qui, remarquant que les combustibles fossiles sont \u00e9puisables alors qu'ils fondent la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 moderne, soulignent depuis longtemps que leur baisse subie dans un monde non pr\u00e9par\u00e9 se traduira par des cons\u00e9quences adverses d'ampleur croissante (d\u00e8s Meadows et al au moins : https://bit.ly/2HkwcIl ).\n\nL'Europe \u00e9tait bien avant l'Ukraine en baisse subie sur le p\u00e9trole (depuis 2007), le gaz (depuis 2005), le charbon (depuis les ann\u00e9es 50), et en baisse choisie sur le nucl\u00e9aire (depuis 2005). Notre baisse de production physique (des tonnes charg\u00e9es dans les camions ou des immeubles construits) a commenc\u00e9 d\u00e8s 2008. L'empreinte carbone des fran\u00e7ais a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 baisser en m\u00eame temps que leur revenu disponible, en 2009 ou 2010, dans la foul\u00e9e de cette d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.\n\nIl n'y a donc pas besoin d'\u00eatre grand clerc pour \"voir venir des ennuis\" avec la d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, sans bien s\u00fbr \u00eatre en mesure de d\u00e9crire ces derniers avec pr\u00e9cision. Pour ce que j'en connais ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de ne fait l'objet d'aucune attention particuli\u00e8re de l'Elys\u00e9e.\n\nSur l'alimentation, m\u00eame motif m\u00eame punition : l'agriculture moderne c'est un climat stable et des combustibles fossiles. Que le climat devienne instable et les combustibles fossiles moins accessibles, et la conclusion devient logique \u00e0 d\u00e9faut d'\u00eatre plaisante. \n\nEnfin, sur la crise climatique, c'est \u00e0 se demander ce qui est pass\u00e9 par la t\u00eate de la personne qui a r\u00e9dig\u00e9 ce discours que de poser la question de savoir \"qui l'aurait pr\u00e9dite\". S\u00e9rieux ?\n\nOn trouve ensuite \"A chaque \u00e9preuve, l\u2019Europe nous a permis d\u2019agir plus vite et plus fort\". C'est vrai et faux : l'Europe avance aujourd'hui sur deux pieds qui contribuent in\u00e9galement au mandat initial de paix et \"prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9\". Le pied \"lib\u00e9ral et concurrentiel\" tire de plus en plus contre son propre camp. On a vu ses effets sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, sur la perte industrielle ou sur l'incapacit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire \u00e9merger une agriculture \"durable\".\n\nLe pied r\u00e9glementaire prend de la vigueur. On lui doit par exemple la limitation des \u00e9missions des voitures neuves, les \u00e9conomies d'\u00e9nergie dans le b\u00e2timent, les obligations de transparence sur les \u00e9missions ou la \"taxe carbone aux fronti\u00e8res\". Mais l'Europe doit encore apprendre \u00e0 marcher -) donc coordonner ses 2 pieds - dans le monde fini.\n\nSuivent plusieurs paragraphes mentionnant que \"notre travail\" va permettre d'avancer dans la bonne direction. Mais ce discours - qui parle surtout d'intendance \u00e0 court terme, certes utile - ne d\u00e9crit pas de grand projet coh\u00e9rent de long terme qui soit lisible (et donc qui motive \u00e0 travailler). Peut-\u00eatre n'\u00e9tait-ce pas le moment d'en parler." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7015289759484760064,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7015289760269099008,urn:li:activity:7015289760269099008,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 259, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7015289760269099008,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7015289760269099008,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": true, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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principalement 10 m\u00e9taux en 1900, alors que c'est d\u00e9sormais de l'ordre de 60, et que nombre d'entre eux sont utilis\u00e9s de mani\u00e8re trop dilu\u00e9e dans les objets qui les contiennent pour pouvoir \u00eatre r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9s ensuite.\n\nOn y apprend aussi qu'il faut en moyenne 17 ans (dans le monde) entre la d\u00e9cision d'ouvrir une mine et le moment o\u00f9 l'exploitation d\u00e9marre. Ceci explique par exemple que la disponibilit\u00e9 mondiale en cuivre ne va pas beaucoup augmenter (voire l\u00e9g\u00e8rement diminuer) dans les 20 ans qui viennent (information rappel\u00e9e par Poinssot), et il faut voir si cela est compatible avec les plans d'\u00e9lectrification massive qui supposent une consommation accrue de ce m\u00e9tal. \n\nM\u00eame s'il faut toujours \u00eatre prudent avec les pr\u00e9visions de prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res (un des gags dans le monde du p\u00e9trole consiste \u00e0 dire : \"vous pouvez pr\u00e9voir un prix, vous pouvez pr\u00e9voir une date, mais il ne faut jamais faire les deux en m\u00eame temps !\"), il est logique de penser que cette tension devrait finir par se voir dans les prix. Dans cet article des Echos, les n\u00e9gociants interrog\u00e9s tablent tous sur des hausses significatives pour l'ann\u00e9e prochaine.\n\nDans les sc\u00e9narios de transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, les alternatives sont souvent \u00e9valu\u00e9es \u00e0 l'aune des montants respectifs d'investissements demand\u00e9s. Mais ces derniers peuvent fortement d\u00e9pendre des cours des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, en particulier pour les moyens qui sont \"gourmands\" en m\u00e9tal par kWh produit (ce qui est le cas - pour de b\u00eates raisons physiques - des collecteurs d'\u00e9nergies diffuses).\n\nLa sagesse voudrait donc que nous prenions nos paris avant tout sur la base des param\u00e8tres \"physiques\", en ne donnant pas aux couts actuels plus de valeur pr\u00e9dictive qu'ils n'en ont. Ca sera mon voeu pour 2023, puisque c'est l'\u00e9poque !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7014995834752630785,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7014995835687944192,urn:li:activity:7014995835687944192,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 54, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7014995835687944192,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7014995835687944192,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Plus d'un demi-million d'exemplaires ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9coul\u00e9s. L\u2019\u0153uvre est sign\u00e9e Jean-Marc Jancovici, sp\u00e9cialiste du climat et de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, et Christophe Blain, dessinateur." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8198496211263763453)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8198496211263763453)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "francetvinfo.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Litt\u00e9rature : franc succ\u00e8s du roman graphique sur la crise climatiqe \"Le Monde sans fin\" by francetvinfo.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.francetvinfo.fr/culture/bd/litterature-franc-succes-du-roman-graphique-sur-la-crise-climatiqe-le-monde-sans-fin_5569977.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Litt\u00e9rature : franc succ\u00e8s du roman graphique sur la crise climatiqe \"Le Monde sans fin\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7014531641289105408,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Monde Sans Fin a bien march\u00e9, il semblerait :) . Peut-on tenter de comprendre pourquoi ?\n\nIl y a tout d'abord le th\u00e8me trait\u00e9 qui fait que l'on \"surfe sur la vague\" : arrivant d\u00e9sormais r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement en t\u00eate des sondages sur les pr\u00e9occupations pour l'avenir, le changement climatique, et plus r\u00e9cemment l'\u00e9nergie, int\u00e9ressent de plus en plus de monde. Un livre des m\u00eames auteurs sur la reproduction des bulots aurait probablement connu un destin un peu diff\u00e9rent.\n\nIl y a l'objet ensuite. Lorsque Christophe m'a contact\u00e9, il m'a dit la chose suivante : \"tes conf\u00e9rences sur Youtube permettent de tr\u00e8s bien comprendre la situation, mais quand on veut r\u00e9expliquer \u00e0 quelqu'un d'autre, on se rend compte que l'on n'y arrive pas\". \n\nIl avait donc d\u00e9j\u00e0 en t\u00eate de faire un livre graphique (car plus facile \u00e0 comprendre) qui puisse s'offrir en disant \"tiens, tu vas comprendre\". C'\u00e9tait sa fa\u00e7on de contribuer \u00e0 un acte militant mais tr\u00e8s bien tol\u00e9r\u00e9 (offrir un livre). Et de fait, c'est un album qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s souvent achet\u00e9 pour quelqu'un d'autre (quelques entreprises en ont m\u00eame achet\u00e9 des milliers pour leurs salari\u00e9s !).\n\nIl y a Christophe enfin. Il n'est pas qu'un ma\u00eetre du crayon : c'est aussi et surtout un perfectionniste qui ne laisse absolument rien passer sur le fond. Tant qu'un \u00e9l\u00e9ment reste incompris, obscur ou incoh\u00e9rent avec le reste, il y revient. Il ne faut pas du tout croire qu'il a dessin\u00e9 sous ma dict\u00e9e : il m'a bombard\u00e9 de questions, et nous avons pass\u00e9 des heures carr\u00e9es sur chaque case de l'album, jusqu'au moment o\u00f9 l'explication \u00e9tait compl\u00e8te et l'enchainement fluide. Accessoirement (!) c'est aussi lui qui a convaincu Dargaud.\n\nAvions nous une ambition en mati\u00e8re de ventes ? Pour ma part, je souhaitais \"faire beaucoup mieux que les essais\", mais cela d\u00e9marrait \u00e0 50.000 exemplaires, nombre qu'aucun de mes essais n'avait atteint.\n\nChristophe, lui, voulait cr\u00e9er \"un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne\". Au moment de notre rencontre il \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \"pris aux tripes\", consid\u00e9rait que le sujet trait\u00e9 \u00e9tait \"le\" sujet, et que ce livre devait \u00eatre \"le\" livre. En cons\u00e9quence, il voulait faire mieux que Quai d'Orsay, dont le premier tome a \u00e9t\u00e9 vendu \u00e0 250.000 exemplaires. C'est lui qui a eu raison :)\n\nPour ma part, j'avais deux autres souhaits : d'abord qu'une BD permette de toucher des gens qui n'auraient jamais achet\u00e9 un essai. Sur ce plan l\u00e0, on peut dire que le pari est r\u00e9ussi. Et ensuite, que plus de femmes s'int\u00e9ressent \u00e0 la question \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. \n\nPour les mails spontan\u00e9s que je re\u00e7ois, les demandes de connexion linkedin (que je ne peux plus satisfaire la quasi-totalit\u00e9 du temps, car je suis proche de mon quota !), les r\u00e9actions \u00e0 mes posts ici, et quelques autres \"points de sonde\", dans plus de 80% des cas j'ai affaire \u00e0 un homme (et >98% quand c'est un commentaire agressif :) ). \n\nJe ne sais pas si cette nouvelle forme d'expression a un peu corrig\u00e9 ce d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre (pas pour les agressions !), mais si oui j'en serai heureux." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7014531641289105408,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7014531641989603328,urn:li:activity:7014531641989603328,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 320, "links": [] }, 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"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syo0atzlYH0" }, "description": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Commission d'enqu\u00eate \"Souverainet\u00e9 et ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de la France\"\n\nSource : www.assemblee-nationale.fr" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Patrick Pouyann\u00e9 -PDG de TotalEnergies, audition, Assembl\u00e9e nationale, 23 novembre 2022" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7014139568698368000,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressante audition de Patrick Pouyann\u00e9 par la \"Commission d'enqu\u00eate visant \u00e0 \u00e9tablir les raisons de la perte de souverainet\u00e9 et d'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de la France\".\n\nQu'on le veuille ou non, \u00e0 tr\u00e8s court terme la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement du pays d\u00e9pend largement du comportement des acteurs du monde p\u00e9trolier et gazier, de fait num\u00e9riquement moins couvert par les auditions de cette commission que le secteur \u00e9lectrique, alors que les hydrocarbures dominent dans l'approvisionnement national. Les quasiment 2 heures pass\u00e9es avec le PDG de Total permettent de comprendre, de fa\u00e7on bienvenue, beaucoup de choses sur le fonctionnement de ce monde l\u00e0.\n\nUne des pr\u00e9occupations du moment est bien sur l'approvisionnement en gaz. Avec l'arr\u00eat des importations russes, la marge de manoeuvre restante est le Gaz Naturel Liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9, pour lequel nous sommes en concurrence avec le reste du monde. Un moyen de faire baisser les prix \u00e0 court terme serait de nouer des contrats de long terme. Mais.... cela signifie que l'on s'engage \u00e0 consommer du gaz longtemps, ce qui est contradictoire avec l'engagement de neutralit\u00e9 !\n\nPouyann\u00e9 explique aussi pourquoi il a investi dans les centrales \u00e9lectriques \u00e0 gaz : l'essor des modes \u00e9lectriques intermittents rend de toute fa\u00e7on n\u00e9cessaires ces moyens de production si l'on veut un approvisionnement \u00e9lectrique continu (\u00e0 ce propos il affirme que le nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7ais n'est pas modulable, ce qui est inexact et est une des deux erreurs que j'ai relev\u00e9es dans son propos). \n\nPouyann\u00e9 confirme dans cette audition que le taux naturel de d\u00e9clin des puits de p\u00e9trole en production dans le monde est de 4% \u00e0 5% par an, ce qui lui fait conclure que, pour que son secteur fasse sa part dans les objectifs climat, il suffit d'arr\u00eater d'investir (mais il dit que ce n'est pas encore le moment, ce qui est inexact puisque les \u00e9missions devraient baisser de 5% par an d\u00e8s demain matin pour tenir les 2\u00b0C).\n\nIl indique que Total a regard\u00e9 le nucl\u00e9aire mais a recul\u00e9 \u00e0 cause de la longueur des engagements, qui ne lui semblent compatibles qu'avec le mode de fonctionnement d'une entreprise publique.\n\nIl s'exprime aussi sur le solaire, l'\u00e9olien, la \"concurrence\" sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, le biogaz, l'hiver 2023 qui sera plus compliqu\u00e9 que l'actuel, la demande \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique des pays \u00e9mergents qui pour le moment est impossible \u00e0 satisfaire sans fossiles additionnel, la Californie et le Qatar...\n\nA d\u00e9faut de fournir les bonnes r\u00e9ponses pour certain(e)s, cette audition permet de poser quelques questions qui piquent un peu. Et quand la r\u00e9ponse de Pouyann\u00e9 nous agace, c'est parfois tout simplement parce qu'il nous place face \u00e0 nos propres contradictions." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7014139568698368000,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7014139569486888960,urn:li:activity:7014139569486888960,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 125, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7014139569486888960,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7014139569486888960,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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plong\u00e9e dans une crise sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7013918187515691008,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "On peut appeler cela un miracle ou une h\u00e9r\u00e9sie, selon le point de vue : selon Les Echos, les Pays Bas, pays de 42.000 km2 de superficie, est le 2\u00e8 exportateur mondial de produits agricoles et agroalimentaires, derri\u00e8res les USA, pays 230 fois plus vaste, et devant la France, qui est plus de 10 fois plus vaste, et tout cela avec 52.000 agriculteurs seulement, qui commandent forc\u00e9ment \u00e0 beaucoup beaucoup de machines.\n\nCar, \u00e9videmment, ce n'est pas tant aux vastes terres fertiles de ce pays tr\u00e8s dens\u00e9ment peupl\u00e9 que l'on doit cela, mais \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie. Le mod\u00e8le n\u00e9erlandais s'est bas\u00e9 largement sur les exploitations intensives qui demandent des engrais (du gaz et du p\u00e9trole), des serres (du gaz pour les chauffer et pour faire le verre), des \u00e9levages intensifs, impossibles \u00e0 approvisionner sans d'importants volumes de transport associ\u00e9s (pour faire venir les aliments) et des produits v\u00e9g\u00e9taux pas chers. Un mod\u00e8le fortement exportateur est aussi un mod\u00e8le fortement d\u00e9pendant des transports internationaux (du p\u00e9trole \u00e0 nouveau).\n\nCe d\u00e9veloppement est \u00e9videmment all\u00e9 avec une augmentation de quelques pressions environnementales (effluents ou \u00e9missions), et est d\u00e9pendant d'une \u00e9nergie abondante et pas ch\u00e8re. Le d\u00e9sir de limiter les nuisances environnementales et la \"crise du gaz\" rebattent fortement les cartes. \n\nRappelons que la production hollandaise de gaz, qui \u00e9tait encore tr\u00e8s significative il y a quelques ann\u00e9es, s'est brusquement effondr\u00e9e apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9cision d'arr\u00eater l'exploitation du plus grand champ gazier d'Europe du Nord (Groninge), qui avait fait de ce pays une petite Norv\u00e8ge pendant de longues d\u00e9cennies.\n\nCet exemple hollandais est en fait embl\u00e9matique de ce qui finira par arriver ailleurs. Une agriculture avec peu de monde, tr\u00e8s m\u00e9canis\u00e9e, tr\u00e8s d\u00e9pendante des transports amont et aval, et tr\u00e8s d\u00e9pendante des engrais et des phytosanitaires, est un enfant de la mondialisation, et aura du mal \u00e0 survivre face \u00e0 la d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. \n\nComme le paysage agricole est tr\u00e8s long \u00e0 r\u00e9orienter (parce que c'est un domaine de traditions, et parce que l'organisation globale mise en place ne se modifie pas en une semaine), il n'est que temps de se demander \u00e0 quoi elle devra ressembler si les conditions climatiques et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques de cette ann\u00e9e 2022 deviennent la norme, voire \"moins pire\" que cette derni\u00e8re.\n\nAu Shift Project, cela fait partie de nos ambitions pour 2023 que d'y revenir (le chapitre du PTEF sur l'agriculture n'est pas suffisant \u00e0 nos yeux et manger est raisonnablement vital). Mais nous esp\u00e9rons bien ne pas \u00eatre les seuls \u00e0 avoir envie de mettre un peu de jus de cerveau dans la question !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7013918187515691008,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7013918188404899840,urn:li:activity:7013918188404899840,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 175, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7013918188404899840,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7013918188404899840,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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semaines, le ton monte parfois sur ce r\u00e9seau \u00e0 propos de certaines de mes prises de position. Puisque la fin de l'ann\u00e9e (ou plut\u00f4t le d\u00e9but de l'ann\u00e9e nouvelle) c'est le moment des bonnes r\u00e9solutions, je voudrais en proposer quelques unes pour les \u00e9changes qui peuvent avoir lieu sur ce que j'aurais dit ou \u00e9crit. \n\nCela s'applique id\u00e9alement \u00e0 ceux qui me critiquent (un exercice utile pour moi car on ne progresse qu'en \u00e9tant sorti de sa zone de confort), et plus encore \u00e0 ceux qui prennent le clavier pour r\u00e9pondre aux premiers.\n\nEssayez de s\u00e9parer le message du messager. Un argument s'examine au fond, et non en fonction de celui qui l'invoque. Si une personne que je d\u00e9teste cordialement dit que 2 et 2 font 4, il n'a pas tort parce que sa t\u00eate ne me revient pas. C'est seulement une fois que l'on a \u00e9ventuellement fait la preuve d'un raisonnement erron\u00e9 que l'on peut se demander si cela a a un rapport avec la profession - ou une autre caract\u00e9ristique - de la personne qui l'a tenu. \n\nMais ca va dans cet ordre l\u00e0 et pas dans le sens inverse. A titre personnel je n'invoque \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s jamais la profession de mes \"contradicteurs\" dans un argumentaire (m\u00eame si parfois il me semble \u00e9vident qu'elle explique la motivation).\n\nEssayez de rester courtois. L'agressivit\u00e9 - ou pire, l'insulte ou la calomnie - clarifient rarement le d\u00e9bat. Les \u00e9changes \u00e9tant publics, on s'adresse autant \u00e0 son contradicteur qu'\u00e0 toutes les personnes qui vont lire l'\u00e9change, et ces derni\u00e8res apprendront plus avec des argumentaires pos\u00e9s qu'avec des invectives. Linkedin n'est normalement ni un pr\u00e9toire ni un plateau de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision !\n\nNe faites pas dire \u00e0 votre opposant ce qu'il ne dit pas. Le proc\u00e9d\u00e9 qui consiste par commencer \u00e0 d\u00e9former ce que dit l'adversaire pour ensuite mieux le combattre est malheureusement assez r\u00e9pandu, mais dans le d\u00e9bat d'id\u00e9es il va assez souvent se retourner t\u00f4t ou tard contre celui ou celle qui l'emploie. \n\nD\u00e9battre prend du temps. Mieux vaut s'abstenir de r\u00e9pondre que de le faire de mani\u00e8re inappropri\u00e9e faute de temps pour mettre son raisonnement en forme.\n\nDans le m\u00eame esprit, il arrive malheureusement que, avec certaines personnes, il soit impossible de sortir du dialogue de sourds (on revient encore et encore sur les m\u00eames arguments alors que l'on y a r\u00e9pondu N fois). A ce moment il faut savoir qu'\u00e0 l'impossible nul n'est tenu et la meilleure des choses \u00e0 faire est d'arr\u00eater l'\u00e9change.\n\nIl est essentiel qu'en d\u00e9mocratie il y ait confrontation d'id\u00e9es. C'est comme cela que l'on finit par avoir de la convergence (n\u00e9cessaire pour d\u00e9gager des majorit\u00e9s). Mais quand la forme employ\u00e9e aboutit \u00e0 des crispations dures, on s'\u00e9loigne en fait de l'objectif que l'on voulait atteindre (converger). 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rapidement que celle d'une camionnette diesel selon l'\u00e9tude \u00abThe Promise of LowCarbon Freight\u00bb." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7556560582917123471)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7556560582917123471)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lefigaro.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \u00abC'est moins anxiog\u00e8ne\u00bb : ces artisans qui font le choix de se d\u00e9placer en v\u00e9lo-cargo by lefigaro.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lefigaro.fr/societes/c-est-moins-anxiogene-ces-artisans-qui-font-le-choix-de-se-deplacer-en-velo-cargo-20221223" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00abC'est moins anxiog\u00e8ne\u00bb : ces artisans qui font le choix de se d\u00e9placer en v\u00e9lo-cargo" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7013230315577987072,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Moins cher, plus rapide en ville, et \u00e9videmment beaucoup plus bas carbone que la camionnette, m\u00eame \u00e9lectrique : le v\u00e9lo-cargo pointe de plus en plus le bout de sa roue en univers urbain (ou de sa p\u00e9dale).\n\nMoins cher \u00e0 l'achat, le v\u00e9lo cargo l'est presque d'un facteur 5 \u00e0 10 si l'on compare son prix neuf avec celui d'un v\u00e9hicule de type Kangoo (thermique ou \u00e9lectrique) neuf. Mais, avec une consommation de l'ordre de 10 Wh par km, il l'est aussi \u00e0 l'usage : face \u00e0 un v\u00e9hicule thermique il n'y a pas photo (6 litres de p\u00e9trole aux 100 km = 600 Wh de p\u00e9trole par km), et m\u00eame face \u00e0 une camionnette \u00e9lectrique il y a plus d'un facteur 10.\n\nSon bilan carbone est aussi consid\u00e9rablement plus faible : \n- la batterie \u00e9tant 100 fois plus petite (0,5 kWh contre 50 en gros) ses \u00e9missions de fabrication le sont aussi \n- le poids \u00e9tant 20 fois plus faible (50 kg contre 1000 kg) les \u00e9missions de fabrication du v\u00e9hicule hors batterie sont en proportion identique.\n\nM\u00eame dans un pays produisant toute son \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 au charbon, passer d'une camionnette thermique \u00e0 un v\u00e9lo cargo divise les \u00e9missions de livraison par un facteur de plusieurs dizaines.\n\nEnfin, en ville, il est plus rapide qu'une camionnette. Cette fois ci c'est l'espace au sol qui lui procure son avantage : les bouchons ont moins de prise !\n\nAjoutons que c'est aussi moins bruyant, et engendre tr\u00e8s peu de pollution locale (les particules des freins et des pneus essentiellement).\n\nPour autant il n'est pas difficile de voir que l'essentiel de ce qui circule en ville (du moins en Occident) reste actionn\u00e9 par un moteur thermique. A l'\u00e9vidence le v\u00e9lo cargo ne peut pas rivaliser sur tous les plans (un r\u00e9servoir avec le plein d'essence procure une bien plus grande autonomie qu'une batterie charg\u00e9e de v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique), et par ailleurs les moyens de transport sont toujours dimensionn\u00e9s \u00e0 leur usage de pointe et la charge utile maximale d'une camionnette reste sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 ce que peut transporter ce genre de v\u00e9hicule. Mais cela ne s'applique pas tout le temps, puisque quelques intr\u00e9pides \"basculent\" !\n \nLe t\u00e9moignage d'une des personnes interrog\u00e9es dans cet article indique qu'il a opt\u00e9 pour ce mode de transport \u00e0 la suite d'une panne de son v\u00e9hicule pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Il n'est probablement pas le seul qui ait opt\u00e9 pour le v\u00e9lo (cargo ou pas) contraint au d\u00e9but, par choix ensuite. Comme on disait dans une vieille pub, l'essayer c'est apparemment souvent l'adopter.\n\nPeut-\u00eatre que l'on pourrait imaginer que dans le cadre de toute formation d'artisan il y ait de mani\u00e8re obligatoire l'essai de ce genre de v\u00e9hicule :) ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7013230315577987072,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7013230316441976832,urn:li:activity:7013230316441976832,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 269, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7013230316441976832,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7013230316441976832,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": 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2022 : quelles sont les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre particuli\u00e8res en cette p\u00e9riode de f\u00eate ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7012438020716929024,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Sapin en plastique artificiel r\u00e9utilisable ou sapin naturel qui ne l'est pas ? C'\u00e9tait traditionnellement la question de la rubrique \u00e9colo sur les radios dans les jours et semaines pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant Noel.\n\nEn fait, cette question est l'arbre qui cache la for\u00eat. Car dans les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre associ\u00e9es \u00e0 cette f\u00eate de fin d'ann\u00e9e, les gros morceaux sont ailleurs, et principalement dans les postes suivants :\n- les cadeaux\n- les d\u00e9placements pour se retrouver en famille\n- et apr\u00e8s on va trouver la nourriture (car entre le fois gras et le chapon, c'est rarement un repas pauvre en produits animaux).\n\nDans cette chronique je n'ai pas mentionn\u00e9 les logements secondaires chauff\u00e9s, qui ne sont pas propres \u00e0 Noel, mais concernent toutes les vacances d'hiver, cependant c'est aussi un poste qui va peser quelque chose dans l'ensemble.\n\nFaut-il se priver de tout pour \u00eatre \u00e9colo alors ? Cet exemple illustre lui aussi que d'\u00eatre heureux dans un monde de limites va nous demander un peu de cr\u00e9ativit\u00e9 et des normes sociales qui changent. \n\nIl y a quand m\u00eame une bonne nouvelle dans l'ensemble : \u00e0 condition de ne pas incin\u00e9rer les coquilles ensuite (sinon le CO2 est rel\u00e2ch\u00e9 dans l'air), manger des huitres ne r\u00e9chauffe quasiment pas le climat. En effet le calcaire des coquilles n'est rien d'autre que du carbone atmosph\u00e9rique s\u00e9questr\u00e9 par le m\u00e9tabolisme des petites b\u00eates. \n\n1 kg de coquilles d'huitres contient 450 grammes de CO2. C'est beaucoup plus que les \u00e9missions de son transport depuis le lieu d'\u00e9levage. Il faut certes ajouter les \u00e9missions de l'exploitation ostr\u00e9icole, mais c'est tr\u00e8s certainement la prot\u00e9ine la plus bas carbone du r\u00e9veillon. 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Fran\u00e7ois Brottes, Conseiller-ma\u00eetre \u00e0 la Cour des comptes ; M. Jean-Bernard L\u00e9vy, ancien pr\u00e9sident-directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de EDF - Mercredi 14 d\u00e9cembre 2022" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7012013350385500161,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Certain(e)s d'entre vous se sont peut-\u00eatre demand\u00e9s un jour d'o\u00f9 sortait l'abaissement de la part du nucl\u00e9aire \u00e0 50% de la production \u00e9lectrique (initialement en 2025 quand Hollande est \u00e9lu pr\u00e9sident, en 2012) figurant dans la Loi de Transition Energ\u00e9tique pour la Croissance Verte de 2015.\n\nCette audition de Fran\u00e7ois Brottes (ancien pr\u00e9sident de la Commission des Affaires Economiques \u00e0 l'Assembl\u00e9e au moment de la discussion et du vote de cette loi, ancien pr\u00e9sident de RTE) donne la r\u00e9ponse. Cet objectif d\u00e9coule uniquement d'un \"jugement de Salomon\" rendu dans l'alliance Verts-PS de 2011, entre ceux qui voulaient un objectif de sortie compl\u00e8te du nucl\u00e9aire, et ceux qui voulaient en garder autant. La n\u00e9gociation a d\u00e9bouch\u00e9 sur ces 50% m\u00e9dians, cens\u00e9s contenter \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s tout le monde.\n\nMais Brottes dit dans la m\u00eame audition que, devenu pr\u00e9sident de RTE, il n'aura eu de cesse d'expliquer au gouvernement que cet objectif de 50% en 2025, qu'il a fait voter comme artisan de la LTCEV, n'\u00e9tait pas r\u00e9aliste ! Il dit aussi qu'il regrette de ne pas avoir pris l'avis de RTE avant de faire voter la loi... comme quoi de temps en temps \u00e9couter les gens du m\u00e9tier avant de d\u00e9cider plut\u00f4t qu'apr\u00e8s n'est pas n\u00e9cessairement une mauvaise id\u00e9e.\n\nBrottes insiste beaucoup sur le fait que la baisse du nucl\u00e9aire \u00e9tait n\u00e9cessaire pour \"d\u00e9velopper les ENR\", et que cela a \u00e9t\u00e9 \"un succ\u00e8s\". Mais la question ne lui est pas pos\u00e9e de savoir pourquoi taper sur le nucl\u00e9aire \u00e9tait un pr\u00e9requis pour augmenter les ENR, ni pourquoi il \u00e9tait pertinent de remplacer une production \u00e9lectrique sans combustion par une autre, sachant que les \u00e9oliennes et panneaux solaires (et le r\u00e9seau \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper, ce qu'indique aussi Brottes) ne sont ni plus ni moins renouvelables que les centrales nucl\u00e9aires (et pas n\u00e9cessairement moins risqu\u00e9s).\n\nOn apprend aussi qu'un r\u00e9seau avec beaucoup de dispositifs de production r\u00e9partis demande de l'\u00e9lectronique partout, alors que les r\u00e9seaux \u00e9lectriques \"descendants\" et les r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires peuvent fonctionner de mani\u00e8re analogique. Personne n'a demand\u00e9 si cela \u00e9tait g\u00eanant ou pas pour la souverainet\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.\n\nBrottes explique aussi qu'il a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 l'origine de l'arenh, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 une mani\u00e8re d'\u00e9viter la scission du parc nucl\u00e9aire entre deux exploitants (autre mani\u00e8re de supprimer le monopole, ce qui \u00e9tait l'objectif europ\u00e9en). \n\nEn fait le mal originel a \u00e9t\u00e9 de faire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 un produit \"ordinaire\", comme des chaussettes ou des yaourts, devant donc faire l'objet d'un march\u00e9 \"ordinaire\", au passage sans monopole d'aucune sorte. Une fois cette d\u00e9cision prise, il n'y avait que de mauvaises mani\u00e8res de s'en sortir...\n\nDans l'ensemble il faut s'armer de patience pour d\u00e9nicher les faits int\u00e9ressants dans cette audition, assez \"louvoyante\" et o\u00f9 l'absence de r\u00e9ponse claire \u00e0 la question pos\u00e9e est plus la r\u00e8gle que l'exception. 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conf\u00e9rences MyCO2 et nous pouvons d\u00e9j\u00e0 tirer de nombreux et riches enseignements gr\u00e2ce aux statistiques et retours que nous avons suite aux centaines d\u2019ateliers d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9alis\u00e9s.\n\n\ud83d\udc47\u00a0Quelques chiffres cl\u00e9s \ud83d\udc47\n\n\ud83d\udc49\u00a02 tonnes de CO2eq : c\u2019est la diff\u00e9rence qu\u2019il y a entre l\u2019empreinte carbone d\u2019une personne se disant \u201csans connaissance\u201d \u00e0 une conf\u00e9rence MyCO2 et une personne se disant \u201cbien renseign\u00e9e\u201d (soit une empreinte 20% plus faible).\n\nLa corr\u00e9lation forte qu\u2019il y a entre le niveau de connaissance auquel les participant.e.s s\u2019\u00e9valuent et leur empreinte carbone met en \u00e9vidence le lien puissant qui s\u2019op\u00e8re entre la compr\u00e9hension des enjeux et les comportements quotidiens, entre la connaissance des ordres de grandeur et l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 des actions mises en oeuvre.\n\n\ud83d\udd0e\u00a0La compr\u00e9hension des enjeux physiques et surtout des r\u00e9ponses concr\u00e8tes \u00e0 apporter sont essentielles et surtout efficaces pour faire face au d\u00e9fi commun du changement climatique.\n\n\ud83d\udc49\u00a077% : c\u2019est la part de personnes se disant \u201cnovice\u201d ou \u201csans connaissance\u201d sur le sujet de l\u2019empreinte carbone aux conf\u00e9rences MyCO2 (hors conf\u00e9rences Grand Public). Une grande majorit\u00e9 donc !\n\nPour que le changement soit efficace, il doit \u00eatre collectif et c\u2019est l\u2019objectif de MyCO2 que de s\u2019adresser aux personnes novices sur le sujet afin que l\u2019ensemble de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 puisse s\u2019emparer de la lutte contre le changement climatique d\u00e8s la fin de la conf\u00e9rence !\n\nSi les pouvoirs publics et les entreprises doivent urgemment s\u2019emparer de la transition \u00e9cologique, celle-ci ne pourra se faire sans une implication et une acceptation forte de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile et des individus eux-m\u00eames.\n\n\u23ec\u00a0Ci-dessous une infographie r\u00e9sumant les principaux chiffres issus des conf\u00e9rences MyCO2 ! \u23ec\n\nD\u2019autres sont \u00e0 venir en 2023, nous les analyserons gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 notre partenariat avec le Laboratoire de Neurosciences Cognitives Computationnelles sous la tutelle de ENS !\n\n\ud83d\udc49\u00a0Vous n\u2019avez pas encore particip\u00e9 \u00e0 une conf\u00e9rence MyCO2 ? Inscrivez-vous \u00e0 notre prochaine conf\u00e9rence grand public gratuite en cliquant ici : https://lnkd.in/eC4d4aSC\n\n\u27a1\ufe0f\u00a0Pour organiser une conf\u00e9rence dans votre structure (entreprise, association\u2026), vous pouvez nous contacter \u00e0 l\u2019adresse myco2@carbone4.com." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7010966246607192064,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7010966247366381569,urn:li:activity:7010966247366381569,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 32, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7010966247366381569,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Depuis maintenant presque 2 ans, Carbone 4 propose aux particuliers (gratuitement) et entreprises (en payant ; \u00e0 un moment il faut bien que quelqu'un paye !) un calculateur d'empreinte carbone personnel un peu particulier, MyCO2 (http://www.myco2.fr). \n\nIl est un peu particulier parce que ce calculateur ne peut pas s'utiliser seul. Il faut n\u00e9cessairement participer \u00e0 une d\u00e9couverte collective, une esp\u00e8ce de carboniques anonymes :), au cours d'une \"conf\u00e9rence interactive\". La raison est que l'effet de groupe lib\u00e8re du stress et favorise le passage \u00e0 l'action (ce qui est bien le but). Et l'interactivit\u00e9 permet aux personnes faisant le calcul de poser toutes sortes de questions sur les modalit\u00e9s de ce dernier.\n\nLors de ces conf\u00e9rences interactives, il est possible de collecter quelques informations (non nominatives \u00e9videmment) sur les participant(e)s. La premi\u00e8re est \u00e9videmment le r\u00e9sultat (combien chaque participant \"p\u00e8se\" en carbone). Mais il y a \u00e9galement la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 quelques questions pos\u00e9es au d\u00e9but de l'exercice. Et notamment celle-ci : \"comment \u00e9valuez vous votre degr\u00e9 de connaissances sur le changement climatique ?\".\n\nEt le r\u00e9sultat, qui figure ci-dessous, est tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressant : plus les gens d\u00e9clarent en savoir long sur l'enjeu, plus leur empreinte carbone est basse. Dit autrement, il y a une corr\u00e9lation entre degr\u00e9 de connaissance et action. Comme il est peu probable que l'action ait pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 la connaissance, le plus vraisemblable est donc l'inverse : avoir compris le probl\u00e8me pousse \u00e0 s'en occuper.\n\nCe n'est donc pas totalement un hasard - et pas juste un effet du radotage du \u00e0 l'\u00e2ge :) - si la bonne compr\u00e9hension des enjeux est de mes chevaux de bataille, notamment pour les gens qui sont \u00e0 des poste de d\u00e9cision. \n\nEn attendant, si vous n'avez pas d'id\u00e9e de cadeau pour No\u00ebl, offrez (ou offrez vous) la d\u00e9couverte de votre empreinte carbone : c'est assur\u00e9ment un cadeau utile !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7011460603047223296,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7011460603802230784,urn:li:activity:7011460603802230784,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 77, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, 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"actionTarget": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/12/like-an-oilwell-in-your-back-yard-irish-turn-to-cutting-peat-to-save-on-energy-bills?amp" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u2018Like an oilwell in your back yard\u2019: Irish people turn to cutting peat to save on energy bills" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7011000496417034240,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a 2 si\u00e8cles, l'\u00e9mergence du charbon \"de terre\" en Europe a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 sauver ce qui restait des for\u00eats. A cette \u00e9poque, tout terrain de plaine ou \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s avait \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9frich\u00e9 pour faire place aux cultures, mais il restait des for\u00eats situ\u00e9es sur des terrains trop pauvres ou trop accident\u00e9s pour \u00eatre facilement utilis\u00e9s pour l'agriculture. Ces for\u00eats \u00e9taient mises \u00e0 rude \u00e9preuve par l'utilisation croissante du bois par les forges et le chauffage des villes.\n\nDepuis que les combustibles fossiles ont \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9s en quantit\u00e9s croissantes, les for\u00eats sont partiellement revenues. D'abord la pression sur le bois de feu a baiss\u00e9, ce dernier \u00e9tant remplac\u00e9 d'abord par le charbon (chauffage et cuisson), puis par le gaz pour les m\u00eames usages.\n\nLa productivit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'hectare a fortement augment\u00e9 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la m\u00e9canisation et aux intrants (engrais et phytosanitaires), c'est \u00e0 dire gr\u00e2ce au p\u00e9trole et au gaz. Cela permet de produire plus avec moins de surfaces (avec quelques effets de bords sur la biodiversit\u00e9...), et a engendr\u00e9 une \"reprise foresti\u00e8re\" sur d'anciens terrains agricoles ou p\u00e2turages cessant d'\u00eatre exploit\u00e9s.\n\nMais voil\u00e0 : le stress croissant sur les \u00e9nergies fossiles est en train d'inverser la donne. Cet article du Guardian explique que les irlandais reviennent \u00e0 la tourbe (le pire en mati\u00e8re d'\u00e9missions de CO2 par unit\u00e9 d'\u00e9nergie) parce que le gaz et le p\u00e9trole sont plus chers (car moins disponibles), et les allemands au bois (mais ca doit probablement \u00eatre aussi vrai pour les fran\u00e7ais), avec dans ce dernier cas du \"braconnage\", c'est \u00e0 dire des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements ill\u00e9gaux qui augmentent.\n\nIl \u00e9tait \u00e0 craindre que, au moment o\u00f9 les combustibles fossiles feraient d\u00e9faut, cela ferait revenir la pression sur le bois et la biomasse en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral que charbon, p\u00e9trole et gaz avaient supprim\u00e9. C'est exactement ce que l'on constate actuellement : les m\u00e9nages veulent se chauffer, les voitures rouler, les avions voler,et l'industrie tourner \u00e0 la biomasse, et tout cela est en train de cr\u00e9er une pression croissante sur le vivant.\n\nSi nous voulons garder des for\u00eats dans un contexte de pression climatique croissante et de pression \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique croissante, il va falloir \u00e0 la fois (re)planter les bonnes esp\u00e8ces, bien g\u00e9rer les usages aval pour r\u00e9partir au mieux la ressource rare, et... probablement embaucher quelques gardes forestiers de plus." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7011000496417034240,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7011000497289469952,urn:li:activity:7011000497289469952,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 66, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, 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La pr\u00e9servation contre la fin du monde - comprendre la d\u00e9fense de la biodiversit\u00e9 - n'aura justifi\u00e9 aucun d\u00e9placement de haut niveau pour soutenir les n\u00e9gociateurs fran\u00e7ais et europ\u00e9ens, pourtant cr\u00e9dit\u00e9s du succ\u00e8s obtenu au Canada par notre premier magistrat sur ce r\u00e9seau (https://bit.ly/3FDV9P2 ). \n\nLe Qatar et le foot (\u00e0 moins que ce ne soient le foot et le Qatar) auront donc vu deux fois les roues de l'avion pr\u00e9sidentiel (dont Sud Ouest a \u00e9valu\u00e9 l'empreinte carbone : https://bit.ly/3Webuky ) en une semaine, la cote de popularit\u00e9 et le gaz ayant manifestement des charmes que les papillons et coraux n'ont pas.\n\nPourtant, si l'on replace les choses dans le bon ordre, sur une plan\u00e8te sans esp\u00e8ces v\u00e9g\u00e9tales et animales (c'est cela la biodiversit\u00e9), il va \u00eatre un peu difficile d'organiser des tournois de foot... et tout aussi difficile de faire tourner une \u00e9conomie. Incidemment, l'article des Echos ci-dessous contient la phrase \"Il faut rappeler que\u00a0plus de la moiti\u00e9 du PIB mondial est tributaire de la biodiversit\u00e9 et de ses services.\". Objection votre honneur : c'est 100% puisque sans esp\u00e8ces animales et v\u00e9g\u00e9tales il n'y a plus d'humanit\u00e9 et plus de PIB du tout !\n\nLa presse qualifie cet accord de succ\u00e8s parce que les aires prot\u00e9g\u00e9es doivent monter \u00e0 30% de la surface terrestre. Mais la vraie victoire, elle sera \u00e0 chercher, ou pas, dans les r\u00e9glementations nationales - ou \u00e9ventuellement les accords commerciaux - qui imposeront des obligations concr\u00e8tes aux acteurs domestiques. \n\nCar on peut appeler \"prot\u00e9g\u00e9e\" une zone qui en pratique ne l'est pas (par exemple une aire marine prot\u00e9g\u00e9e qui est chalut\u00e9e comme si elle ne l'\u00e9tait pas), ou encore cr\u00e9er une r\u00e9serve avec 3 gardes et demi pour des milliers de km2, qui restent en pratique soumis aux m\u00eames pressions qu'avant ou presque.\n\nLes obligations de transparence cr\u00e9\u00e9es pour les entreprises sont une \u00e9tape bienvenue, mais le Diable sera aussi dans les d\u00e9tails. Pour le moment, les m\u00e9thodes sont \u00e9mergentes (nous le savons \u00e0 Carbone 4 pour travailler dessus !), et les moyens allou\u00e9s par les acteurs \u00e9conomiques pour \"bien compter\" les pressions environnementales (biodiversit\u00e9 ou climat) restent bien plus faibles que pour les euros. On peut aller en prison quand on compte l'argent de travers (fraude fiscale, comptabilit\u00e9 non tenue, etc), mais c'est rarement le cas quand on compte le CO2 ou la biodiversit\u00e9 de travers !\n\nLe vrai s\u00e9rieux des pays ratificataires se mesurera donc \u00e0 l'aune de ce qu'ils seront capables d'imposer \u00e0 leurs acteurs domestiques. Pour la biodiversit\u00e9, comme pour le climat, il va falloir y consacrer un peu plus de temps que celui de simples f\u00e9licitations adress\u00e9es entre deux avions pour aller voir un match." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7010689509080080384,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7010689509977653249,urn:li:activity:7010689509977653249,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 92, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7010689509977653249,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7010689509977653249,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ce n'est pas une bonne nouvelle pour le climat : la consommation mondiale de charbon en 2022 devrait \u00eatre la plus haute depuis le d\u00e9but de l'utilisation de ce combustible. \n\nEn cause, il y a la tr\u00e8s forte hausse du prix du gaz liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9 qui a suivi les troubles en Europe (laquelle devait compenser au mieux par du GNL les importations disparues d'une partie du gaz russe), et qui a conduit \u00e0 un basculement du gaz vers le charbon pour une partie de la production \u00e9lectrique dans le monde. Rappelons qu'environ 2/3 du charbon plan\u00e9taire sert \u00e0 produire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (voir https://bit.ly/3uXedCM - qui date un peu mais l'essentiel reste valable - pour avoir un aper\u00e7u de ses usages dans le monde).\n\nL'AIE publie aussi un graphique qui d\u00e9compose la variation de la production \u00e9lectrique dans le monde de 2021 \u00e0 2022. Les deux \"moteurs\" de la hausse de la consommation de charbon dans ce secteur sont la hausse de la consommation \u00e9lectrique tout court et... la baisse du nucl\u00e9aire. \n\nDans un contexte de stress sur l'approvisionnement en gaz (qui \u00e9tait envisageable pour la p\u00e9riode actuelle \u00e0 d\u00e9faut d'\u00eatre certain), l'arr\u00eat des r\u00e9acteurs de nos voisins du Nord a en particulier directement d\u00e9bouch\u00e9 sur une hausse de la pire mani\u00e8re de produire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (voir https://bit.ly/3j60iYh ), ce qui se constate assez facilement en ce moment en regardant par exemple la d\u00e9composition de la production \u00e9lectrique disponible sur https://lnkd.in/ecWPwUDV\n\nL'AIE fournit aussi un pronostic d'ici \u00e0 2025. Dans ce dernier, la hausse attendue de la consommation \u00e9lectrique n'est pas assur\u00e9e en totalit\u00e9 par les renouvelables, et il y a aussi un poil d'augmentation de charbon. Certes la hausse est dans l'\u00e9paisseur du trait selon cette projection, mais si ce combustible solide suivait le chemin demand\u00e9 par la \"trajectoire 2\u00b0C\" il faudrait que sa consommation baisse de 14% (dans le monde) en 3 ans. \n\nAppliqu\u00e9e \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, cette baisse signifie 1450 TWh (\u00e9lectriques) de production au charbon en moins en 3 ans (1 TWh = un milliard de kWh). Par ailleurs l'AIE envisage une hausse de la demande \u00e9lectrique de 2500 TWh sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode. Pour que l'\u00e9quation soit tenue il faudrait donc 4000 TWh de production non carbon\u00e9e en plus, soit :\n- un doublement de l'hydro\n- ou une multiplication par presque 5 du solaire (qui a augment\u00e9 d'environ 14% par an de 2018 \u00e0 2021)\n- ou une multiplication par 3 de l'\u00e9olien (qui a augment\u00e9 d'environ 10% par an de 2018 \u00e0 2021)\n- ou une multiplication par 2,5 du nucl\u00e9aire (qui est stable de 2018 \u00e0 2021).\n\nM\u00eame en combinant tout cela, on voit le formidable d\u00e9calage entre les discours de d\u00e9carbonation et les actes. Si nous voulons 2\u00b0C, il va surtout falloir consommer moins d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans le monde...\n\nNB : la photo d'illustration choisie par l'AIE est assez mal venue : il aurait mieux valu montrer une mine ayant remplac\u00e9 la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation, ou un train traversant un paysage dess\u00e9ch\u00e9, cela aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 plus \u00e0 propos ! 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C\u00f4t\u00e9 Shift Project, et m\u00eame si nous savons que les rennes commencent \u00e0 souffrir du r\u00e9chauffement climatique, nous avons aussi un souhait sur le contenu de la hotte. Il s'appelle un(e) chef(fe) d'entreprise militant(e). \n\nPlus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, ce que nous souhaiterions trouver sous le sapin, ce sont des entreprises membres, c'est \u00e0 dire qui adh\u00e8rent \u00e0 l'association et qui versent une cotisation. Cette derni\u00e8re est d'abord bienvenue parce que nous avons en permanence plus d'id\u00e9es que de moyens. Et, quand nous sommes dans une course contre la montre, avoir les moyens de creuser ses id\u00e9es est plus utile avant les ennuis qu'apr\u00e8s !\n\nUne entreprise qui adh\u00e8re c'est aussi un acteur \u00e9conomique de plus qui \"soutient la cause\". 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C'est in\u00e9vitable d\u00e8s lors que nous avons choisi une position moins pure que de protester de l'ext\u00e9rieur : nous avons cibl\u00e9 le monde \u00e9conomique, et nous cherchons \u00e0 y mobiliser \"de l'int\u00e9rieur\". C'est moins visible et plus ingrat, mais c'est aussi l\u00e0 que se gagnent une partie des batailles. Nos membres acceptent aussi que nous les asticotions un peu de temps en temps : pour progresser, il faut sortir de sa zone de confort.\n\nOn pourra aussi nous reprocher de ne pas \u00eatre \u00e0 la hauteur de l'enjeu, puisque la situation globale continue \u00e0 \u00e9voluer dans le mauvais sens. Mais, tant qu'il n'y a pas de plan B, il n'y a aucune chance de voir l'\u00e9conomie se r\u00e9orienter : vers quoi le ferait-elle ? Avoir des propositions op\u00e9rationnelles n'est pas suffisant, mais c'est assur\u00e9ment n\u00e9cessaire.\n\nEn 2022, le budget du Shift Project aura \u00e9t\u00e9 de 2 millions. 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l'annonce).\n\nLe rapport en question a fait l'objet d'une pr\u00e9sentation synth\u00e9tique, mais vous pouvez d'ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 le t\u00e9l\u00e9charger sur la page d\u00e9di\u00e9e du site du Shift Project (lien ci-dessous) et voir quelles sont nos propositions pour les futurs employ\u00e9s du grand (et du petit, et parfois public) capital.\n\nDeux chiffres essentiel r\u00e9sument l'avant et apr\u00e8s :\n\n- actuellement, sur 1400 cursus (de formation de futurs \"financiers\") examin\u00e9s, seuls 5% int\u00e8grent les enjeux \u00e9cologiques de mani\u00e8re acceptable dans l'enseignement dispens\u00e9, et c'est essentiellement pour des personnes qui suivent un parcours sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans l'extrafinancier. Ailleurs il n'y a rien, ou quasi.\n\n- pour commencer \u00e0 disposer d'une compr\u00e9hension acceptable des enjeux (changement climatique, biodiversit\u00e9, ressources min\u00e9rales, etc), et de la boite \u00e0 outils pour \"penser syst\u00e8me\" et arbitrer les conflits d'objectifs, il faut compter un peu plus de 150 heures de formation. \n\nComme les \u00e9pisodes pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents pour les ing\u00e9nieurs et les gestionnaires, ce rapport aborde des questions tr\u00e8s pratiques, comme par exemple la formation ou le recrutement des enseignants, la conception d'une maquette p\u00e9dagogique, la question des classements, et plein d'autres aspects concrets auxquels est confront\u00e9 tout responsable d'\u00e9tablissement de bonne volont\u00e9.\n\nIl ne se passe d\u00e9sormais plus un jour sans annonce de verdissement dans le secteur financier. Mais pour passer des d\u00e9clarations aux actes il y a des \u00e9tapes incontournables : \u00eatre capable d'inclure la question environnementale (et en particulier climatique) dans les processus du quotidien, avoir des seuils et des objectifs servis par ces processus, et \u00eatre capable d'arbitrer les conflits d'objectifs qui sont in\u00e9vitables d\u00e8s qu'il y a r\u00e9orientation strat\u00e9gique.\n\nCet ensemble demande notamment (mais pas que) des salari\u00e9s correctement form\u00e9s sur les enjeux et les m\u00e9thodes pour les inclure dans les processus. Ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 hier soir n'est donc pas suffisant, mais \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence c'est n\u00e9cessaire : on peut douter de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 d'entreprises du secteur financier qui ne se pr\u00e9occuperaient pas de la mont\u00e9e en comp\u00e9tence de l'ensemble de leurs salari\u00e9s (c'est bien l'objet du rapport) et pas juste de leur \u00e9quipe RSE. Au travail !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7009466058004692993,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7009466059044847616,urn:li:activity:7009466059044847616,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 52, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7009466059044847616,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7009466059044847616,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:7009466059044847616", "threadId": 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7009114385205854208,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La Commission est raccord avec The Shift Project, m\u00eame si c'est pour tirer une forme de signal d'alarme (https://lnkd.in/eVVGtZCc ) : la situation gazi\u00e8re actuelle ne fait qu'annoncer un avenir qui sera probablement de plus en plus compliqu\u00e9 \u00e0 g\u00e9rer, et ce d\u00e8s l'hiver prochain.\n\nLors d'un hiver \"normal\", le gaz utilis\u00e9 provient de deux sources :\n- les stocks qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 constitu\u00e9s pendant l'\u00e9t\u00e9, \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 l'approvisionnement (via gazoduc ou GNL) d\u00e9passe la consommation\n- mais aussi du gaz qui continue d'\u00eatre achemin\u00e9 en continu par les m\u00eames moyens.\n\nAvant la guerre en Ukraine, le gaz russe repr\u00e9sentait 40% des approvisionnement de l'Union. D\u00e9sormais Nordstream est hors service (il avait une capacit\u00e9 de 25% de la consommation europ\u00e9enne environ), et seul subsiste l'approvisionnement via le gazoduc qui passe par l'Ukraine... qui est un point d'interrogation. On peut tr\u00e8s bien imaginer que d\u00e8s que les russes auront r\u00e9alis\u00e9 les infrastructures physiques leur permettant de commercer avec la Chine, cet approvisionnement l\u00e0 aussi puisse baisser ou dispara\u00eetre (car il permet aussi aux ukrainiens d'avoir du gaz).\n\nAvant m\u00eame que cette hypoth\u00e8que ne se concr\u00e9tise, la faiblesse de l'approvisionnement \"en continu\" depuis la guerre pourrait obliger les europ\u00e9ens \u00e0 compl\u00e8tement vider les stocks pour passer l'hiver, et cette m\u00eame faiblesse nous emp\u00eacher de disposer d'assez de gaz pou faire face \u00e0 la demande l'hiver prochain.\n\nIncidemment cette faiblesse de l'approvisionnement en gaz devrait maintenir des prix de march\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9s, et, \u00e0 \"market design\" identique sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, maintenir des prix tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne.\n\nFace \u00e0 cela, les mesures palliatives sur l'offre sont lentes : plus d'ENR (ou de nucl\u00e9aire) demande du temps, outre que les ENR \u00e9lectriques non pilotables concourent peu \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement (il suffit de regarder https://lnkd.in/eRvA7w-a depuis une semaine pour voir que l'Allemagne - et nous via importations pour une petite partie - tourne fortement au charbon parce qu'il y a peu de soleil et peu de vent depuis une semaine). \n\nLes mesures \"purement techniques\" sur la demande sont aussi lentes \u00e0 mettre en place : on ne peut pas multiplier par 10 le nombre d'op\u00e9rations lourdes de r\u00e9novation des b\u00e2timents \"comme cela\".\n\nSi la baisse est significative, il y a donc fort \u00e0 parier que ce sont des \"mesures rapides\" sur la demande qui vont devoir faire le job (car de fait on ne peut pas consommer un gaz qui n'existe pas !). Baisse du thermostat, de la consommation \u00e9lectrique et de la production industrielle sont donc \u00e0 envisager. Il faut malheureusement aussi se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 cela." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7009114385205854208,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7009114386082504704,urn:li:activity:7009114386082504704,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 40, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7009114386082504704,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7009114386082504704,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7008752502338650112,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Union europ\u00e9enne vient de se doter d'un m\u00e9canisme pour prot\u00e9ger les industriels du continent contre leurs comp\u00e9titeurs \u00e9trangers qui n'ont pas \u00e0 payer pour leurs \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Cette mesure est r\u00e9clam\u00e9e depuis longtemps par les milieux \u00e9conomiques au motif - l\u00e9gitime dans son principe - que, pour des produits soumis \u00e0 la concurrence internationale, payer pour le CO2 rench\u00e9rit les couts face \u00e0 la concurrence.\n\nIl y a certes quelques secteurs qui crient un peu fort avant m\u00eame d'avoir mal. Par exemple le ciment voyage peu, et les \u00e9changes internationaux sont faibles. Mais pour d'autres produits de base - et a fortiori manufactur\u00e9s - c'est plut\u00f4t la r\u00e8gle. L'intention europ\u00e9enne est donc pertinente.\n\nRevenons un peu sur les quotas : ils sont attribu\u00e9s site par site (et non par entreprise) pour un peu plus de 10.000 sites tr\u00e8s \u00e9missifs (centrales \u00e9lectriques, cimenteries, aci\u00e9ries, etc). \n\nDepuis 2013 la les quotas sont vendus aux ench\u00e8res. En d\u00e9but de p\u00e9riode (car les quotas sont valables pour une p\u00e9riode de quelques ann\u00e9es), la Commission permet \u00e0 chaque site concern\u00e9 de se procurer des autorisations administratives d'\u00e9mettre (appel\u00e9es quotas), qui sont payants (vendus aux ench\u00e8res), et disponibles en quantit\u00e9 limit\u00e9 pour un site donn\u00e9 (https://bit.ly/3YlMJ7m ).\n\nC'est donc payant... mais il y a plein de d\u00e9rogations permettant d'avoir ces m\u00eames quotas gratuitement : pour les sites tr\u00e8s expos\u00e9s \u00e0 la concurrence, pour ceux qui se modernisent, etc (https://bit.ly/3hnL28R ).\n\nL'id\u00e9e de cette \"taxe aux fronti\u00e8res\" est justement de pouvoir - entre autres - supprimer ces exceptions parce que les comp\u00e9titeurs internationaux vont aussi devoir payer quelque chose. En pratique l'Europe ne peut pas taxer des usines situ\u00e9es hors de ses fronti\u00e8res : ce sont les importateurs qui vont devoir acheter des quotas. Ce n'est donc pas une taxe carbone \u00e0 proprement parler, \u00e0 savoir un prix fixe par tonne de CO2 \u00e9mise par les industriels qui exportent des produits en Europe.\n\nPour savoir combien de quotas les importateurs vont devoir se procurer, il va donc falloir se mettre d'accord sur un \"contenu en carbone\" par unit\u00e9 de produit import\u00e9e. Il faudra aussi se mettre d'accord sur la source de ces quotas (achet\u00e9s sur le march\u00e9 sans augmentation du volume global de quotas disponibles ? Issus d'une nouvelle enveloppe suppl\u00e9mentaire et vendus aux ench\u00e8res ? Autre ?), et le m\u00e9canisme qui va garantir que le prix moyen \u00e0 la tonne de CO2 pay\u00e9 par l'importateur sera \u00e9quivalent au prix moyen pay\u00e9 par l'industriel europ\u00e9en pour la fabrication du m\u00eame produit (et sur ce dernier point tout n'est pas si simple : une tonne de poutrelle en acier est-elle \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 une tonne de feuille d'acier en rouleau ?).\n\nIl n'emp\u00eache : cette innovation est bienvenue. Rappelons qu'en France, acier, ciment et chimie de base repr\u00e9sentent les 3/4 des \u00e9missions industrielles. Ce syst\u00e8me de compensation aux fronti\u00e8res interagit avec un gros paquet d'\u00e9missions." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7008752502338650112,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7008752503869554688,urn:li:activity:7008752503869554688,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 72, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7008752503869554688,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7008752503869554688,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7482535744954721878)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Voitures, v\u00e9los, smartphones : l'Europe va contraindre les industriels \u00e0 verdir leurs batteries by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/voitures-velos-smartphones-leurope-va-contraindre-les-industriels-a-verdir-leurs-batteries-1887966" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Voitures, v\u00e9los, smartphones\u00a0: l'Europe va contraindre les industriels \u00e0 verdir leurs batteries" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7008343783176044544,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans le d\u00e9bat sur la mani\u00e8re de d\u00e9carboner l'industrie europ\u00e9enne, un argument est souvent mis en avant par les adversaires de la taxe carbone : elle cr\u00e9erait une distorsion de concurrence avec les industriels \u00e9trangers, qui n'y seraient pas soumis. \n\nCet argument est de fait souvent recevable (pas toujours : sur les pond\u00e9reux qui voyagent peu, par exemple le ciment, le risque de \"fuites\" aux fronti\u00e8res est limit\u00e9). Il y a une autre mani\u00e8re de faire, que l'Europe vient de d\u00e9cider \u00e0 propos des batteries : limiter l'empreinte carbone d'un produit ou service. \n\nDe fait, pour une voiture \u00e9lectrique, la fabrication de la batterie engendre la moiti\u00e9 des \u00e9missions de fabrication de l'ensemble. Cela n'emp\u00eache pas un v\u00e9hicule \u00e9lectrique d'\u00eatre, sur sa dur\u00e9e de vie, significativement moins \u00e9missif qu'un v\u00e9hicule \u00e0 p\u00e9trole de taille et puissance \u00e9quivalentes pour beaucoup de pays europ\u00e9ens, mais diminuer l'empreinte carbone de la batterie reste un objectif important pour baisser le contenu carbone d'un v\u00e9hicule \u00e9lectrique.\n\nLa l\u00e9gislation europ\u00e9enne qui vient d'\u00eatre d\u00e9cid\u00e9e, dont je confesse ne pas encore avoir regard\u00e9 les d\u00e9tails, est donc pertinente. Il n'\u00e9chappera \u00e0 personne que cette r\u00e9glementation est aussi une arme anti-importation et pro-fili\u00e8re europ\u00e9enne. En effet, la fabrication d'une batterie est un processus assez gourmand en \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et en \u00e9nergie fossile \"en direct\". Pas juste pour l'assemblage final des packs de cellules (qui est n\u00e9gligeable dans l'ensemble de l'empreinte carbone), mais pour les \u00e9tapes amont : extraction des minerais, raffinage des divers m\u00e9taux (nickel, cobalt, lithium, cuivre), fabrication des principes actifs des composants (anode, cathode, \u00e9lectrolyte), et fabrication des cellules.\n\nPour d\u00e9carboner significativement la fabrication d'une batterie, il faudra donc non seulement des usines d'assemblage (les fameuses \"gigafactories\"), mais surtout rapatrier en Europe - et pr\u00e9f\u00e9rentiellement dans les pays \u00e0 \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 peu carbon\u00e9e, \u00e0 supposer que l'on en ait assez :) - la fraction maximale des \u00e9tapes qui vont juste \u00e0 l'aval de la mine (sachant que la mine sera difficile \u00e0 rapatrier en Europe !) : raffinage des m\u00e9taux, principes actifs, et cellules.\n\nC'est bien ce mouvement que l'Europe cherche \u00e0 enclencher avec le r\u00e8glement europ\u00e9en adopt\u00e9 (rappelons qu'un r\u00e8glement est d'application directe dans les \u00e9tats membres et n'a pas besoin de transposition par les parlements nationaux comme une directive). Reste \u00e0 ce que la physique soit d'accord (pour avoir assez d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e pour faire ET des batteries ET de l'hydrog\u00e8ne ET de la mobilit\u00e9 ET alimenter des pompes \u00e0 chaleur ET \u00e9lectrifier d'autres industries...) et que l'industrie soit d'accord pour investir.\n\nIl y aura aussi un d\u00e9bat \u00e0 avoir sur l'usage de ces batteries : avec de quoi \u00e9lectrifier un \"tank \u00e9lectrique\" de plus de 2 tonnes on peut motoriser 200 v\u00e9los \u00e9lectriques. A l'heure de la rar\u00e9faction des ressources ce d\u00e9bat l\u00e0 est aussi essentiel." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7008343783176044544,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7008343783905845248,urn:li:activity:7008343783905845248,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 55, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7008343783905845248,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7008343783905845248,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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"Pourra-t-on un jour avoir une finance \"verte\" ? Un jour viendra peut-\u00eatre o\u00f9 nous aurons le graal d'une performance environnementale et d'une performance financi\u00e8re allant de pair. A ce moment l\u00e0, les financiers pourront faire l'esprit tranquille ce qui est leur m\u00e9tier habituel : maximiser le rendement des capitaux investis pour un risque donn\u00e9, puisque par construction cela minimisera \u00e0 l'occasion le risque environnemental. \n\nPour en arriver l\u00e0, il faut cependant une petite condition aux limites : que l'ensemble des contraintes applicables aux entreprises les poussent dans une direction telle que ce qui est le meilleur pour l'environnement est aussi le plus rentable pour elles (ou le moins \"moins rentable\" !).\n\nMais pour le moment cette convergence n'est pas l\u00e0, comme le rappelle un article r\u00e9cent des Echos (https://lnkd.in/e4BJit5P ), et il est donc n\u00e9cessaire de donner aux acteurs du monde financier les outils et m\u00e9thodes pour arbitrer entre les deux.\n\nLe financier \"de base\" doit donc regarder s\u00e9par\u00e9ment \u00e9conomie et environnement pour savoir si les deux sont raccord ou pas. Cela signifie qu'il ou elle doit comprendre \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s il retourne quand il est question d'environnement, et plus particuli\u00e8rement de climat et de ressources \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques.\n\nRemontons d'un cran : pour que notre financier(e) ait les bases en mati\u00e8re d'\u00e9nergie et de climat, il faut bien qu'il ou elle les ait apprises un jour. Il faut aussi qu'il ou elle n'apprenne pas, ou ne \"conserve\" pas, en mati\u00e8re de finance ou d'\u00e9conomie, des choses qui pr\u00e9supposent que les limites plan\u00e9taires n'existent pas. \n\nAdmettons que notre futur(e) financier(e) soit encore en train de suivre sa formation initiale. A ce moment la question devient : que doit-on apprendre, et ne pas apprendre (ou d\u00e9sapprendre !), pour faire converger la logique du secteur et la pr\u00e9servation de l'environnement ?\n\nApr\u00e8s les ing\u00e9nieurs et les gestionnaires, The Shift Project s'attaque \u00e0 cette question de la formation initiale du sup\u00e9rieur pour les futurs salari\u00e9s de ce secteur (on appr\u00e9ciera la gradation de la difficult\u00e9 !), et vous propose, le Jeudi 15 d\u00e9cembre, un webinaire de pr\u00e9sentation de nos travaux sur le sujet.\n\nCela n'\u00e9puise pas le sujet de la formation, puisque les personnes d\u00e9j\u00e0 en activit\u00e9 ne peuvent plus, par la force des choses, retrouver leurs 20 ans et redevenir \u00e9tudiantes. Esp\u00e9rons que nos suggestions, qui incluent le corpus de connaissances de base sur l'environnement qu'il faut absolument avoir acquises pour \u00eatre pertinent sur le sujet, infuseront aussi tr\u00e8s vite la formation continue !\n\nProgramme et modalit\u00e9s d'inscription ci-dessous." } }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7008083556673454080,urn:li:activity:7008083556673454080,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 67, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7008083556673454080,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7008083556673454080,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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renouvelables, sur la transparence des financements et sur l'acceptabilit\u00e9 sociale des politiques de transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\" pilot\u00e9e par un d\u00e9put\u00e9 LR : https://bit.ly/3iSJ9kV\n- une sur le \"co\u00fbt r\u00e9el de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 afin d'en d\u00e9terminer l'imputation aux diff\u00e9rents agents \u00e9conomiques\" demand\u00e9 par un s\u00e9nateur Vert : https://bit.ly/3PjgRw3\n\nA chaque fois un des buts \u00e9tait bien \"d'\u00e9pingler\" des adversaires politiques, au motif qu'ils avaient d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d'actions contraires \u00e0 la conviction du parlementaire qui d\u00e9clenchait la Commission.\n\nCela n'emp\u00eache \u00e9videmment pas d'apprendre des choses int\u00e9ressantes pour qui prend le temps d'\u00e9couter les auditions ou de lire les rapports, et c'est bien en entrant dans ce niveau de d\u00e9tail que l'on peut profiter de ces travaux. La partie \"tribunal pour politiques\" n'est qu'une partie \u00e9merg\u00e9e - et pas la plus int\u00e9ressante - de l'iceberg, sauf \u00e0 permettre \u00e0 l'ensemble de la classe politique de devenir plus adulte ensuite, et ce n'est pas garanti !\n\nA l'\u00e9vidence, fermer Fessenheim a priv\u00e9 le pays d'une production \u00e9lectrique bas carbone qui serait pr\u00e9cieuse aujourd'hui. Mais qui en est responsable ? Royal parce qu'elle a sign\u00e9 le d\u00e9cret ? Hollande parce qu'il a pris cet engagement dans la campagne ? Macron parce qu'il n'est pas revenu dessus alors qu'il le pouvait ? La presse qui a longtemps et majoritairement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 le nucl\u00e9aire comme bien plus dangereux que ses alternatives et facile \u00e0 remplacer sans trop se demander si l'argumentation \u00e9tait factuellement solide ? Jospin qui a donn\u00e9 le coup d'envoi de 20 ans de nucl\u00e9aire honteux ? Les experts techniques qui n'ont pas su faire la p\u00e9dagogie des seuls faits ? L'Education Nationale qui a laiss\u00e9 circuler des manuels scolaires contenant des contre-v\u00e9rit\u00e9s ? L'Allemagne qui a fait tout ce qu'elle a pu pour faire \u00e9merger des r\u00e8gles europ\u00e9ennes d\u00e9favorables au nucl\u00e9aire et nous jeter dans les bras des russes ?\n\nClouer Royal au pilori ne nous aidera que peu \u00e0 mieux r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 l'avenir. Plus que des noms, notre premier objet d'attention doit \u00eatre l'ad\u00e9quation entre processus de d\u00e9cision et probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter. Ce sont les m\u00e9canismes structurels \u00e0 l'oeuvre (cadre de march\u00e9, partage des faits, horizon temporel de l'action), qu'il faut examiner et \u00e9ventuellement corriger. C'est moins spectaculaire que de conspuer un individu (m\u00eame peu sympathique), mais bien plus fondamental." } }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7007679410803744768,urn:li:activity:7007679410803744768,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 361, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7007679410803744768,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7007679410803744768,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:7007679410803744768", "threadId": "activity:7007679410803744768", 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tableaux de chiffres : https://bit.ly/3W8qaB0 Id\u00e9alement il faut tout lire (et ne pas juste lire les enseignements - disponibles sur https://bit.ly/3HqkBKn) pour se faire sa propre id\u00e9e. \n\nL'environnement c'est important, mais la hausse du cout de la vie l'est un peu plus dans tous les pays... sauf un : l'Inde, o\u00f9 la hi\u00e9rarchie est inverse.\n\nLa Chine est le pays o\u00f9 il y a le plus fort taux de r\u00e9pondants consid\u00e9rant que la situation environnementale y est bonne ou tr\u00e8s bonne (chacun peut voir midi \u00e0 sa porte !). La Cor\u00e9e du Sud et l'Espagne sont les pays de l'autre extr\u00e9mit\u00e9 du spectre.\n\nLe pays le plus climatosceptique de l'\u00e9chantillon est l'Arabie Saoudite, suivie juste apr\u00e8s par les USA puis la Russie. En Europe c'est la Norv\u00e8ge. Il y aurait comme un lien entre le climatoscepticisme et l'importance des hydrocarbures dans l'\u00e9conomie domestique :) (en Norv\u00e8ge il y a en plus une majorit\u00e9 qui consid\u00e8re que le r\u00e9chauffement est globalement neutre ou positif pour le pays).\n\nSur un sujet qui concerne plus directement EDF, dans l'essentiel des pays sond\u00e9s le nucl\u00e9aire est majoritairement vu comme une source significative de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre (alors que pour l'agriculture ou le digital seule une minorit\u00e9 l'affirme), ce qui n'emp\u00eache pas le soutien (dans une autre question) du remplacement des centrales \u00e0 combustibles fossiles par du nucl\u00e9aire !\n\nLes br\u00e9siliens et indon\u00e9siens pr\u00e9f\u00e8rent m\u00eame le charbon au nucl\u00e9aire, et pr\u00e9f\u00e8rent remplacer le charbon par du gaz plut\u00f4t que par du nucl\u00e9aire. Ils sont loin de Poutine ! Les chinois sont les plus favorables au nucl\u00e9aire et les colombiens le moins. Toutes les populations sont favorables au solaire et \u00e0 l'\u00e9olien.\n\nCe sont les japonais les plus s\u00e9v\u00e8res avec leurs responsables politiques (qui sont vus comme tr\u00e8s peu actifs) et les chinois les plus laudatifs. C'est aussi en Chine qu'il y a la plus grande fraction de la population qui consid\u00e8re que leur pays est dans le peloton de t\u00eate des efforts contre le changement climatique.\n\nCe sont les turcs les plus nombreux \u00e0 vouloir que l'on privil\u00e9gie l'environnement sur la croissance (65% vs 25%). Mais ce sont les chinois les plus persuad\u00e9s que leur pays va donner la priorit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'environnement dans un avenir proche m\u00eame si cela nuit \u00e0 la croissance !\n\nA la fin de l'enqu\u00eate sont test\u00e9es les acceptabilit\u00e9s d'un certain nombre de mesures. Sans grande surprise, tout ce qui est taxes et limitations est bien moins accept\u00e9 que le d\u00e9veloppement (gratuit on suppose !) des \u00e9nergies bas carbone (y compris le nucl\u00e9aire).\n\nEvidemment on sort de cette avalanche de chiffres en voyant bien des contradictions dans les r\u00e9ponses. Mais on y voir aussi des indications utiles pour que certaines actions de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 soient d'ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 men\u00e9es." } }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7007412643036545024,urn:li:activity:7007412643036545024,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 48, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7007412643036545024,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7007412643036545024,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:7007412643036545024", "threadId": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8922422006420302619)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbone4.com \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Towards biodiversity certificates: proposal for a methodological framework | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/publication-biodiversity-certificates-obc" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Towards biodiversity certificates: proposal for a methodological framework | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7006908706328059904,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Depuis sa cr\u00e9ation, Carbone 4 s'est historiquement int\u00e9ress\u00e9 au carbone fossile, celui des combustibles \u00e9ponymes. Mais il y a aussi du carbone \"vivant\" : la biodiversit\u00e9. Nous avons d\u00e9cid\u00e9, il y a un peu plus d'un an, de nous lancer aussi dans cette direction l\u00e0. \n\nPour chaque nouveau domaine ou secteur, notre mani\u00e8re de faire est toujours la m\u00eame : nous commen\u00e7ons par nous creuser un peu la cervelle pour savoir ce que nous pourrions apporter d'utile et de nouveau en mati\u00e8re de m\u00e9thodes. Et la m\u00e9thode qui d\u00e9coule de notre r\u00e9flexion est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement rendue disponible en acc\u00e8s libre.\n\nLa comptabilit\u00e9 carbone pratiqu\u00e9e par Carbone 4 est ainsi venue apr\u00e8s la cr\u00e9ation du Bilan Carbone. Notre approche de la neutralit\u00e9 apr\u00e8s la mise au point de Net Zero Initiative (https://bit.ly/3uAeYl1 ). Les \u00e9tudes de r\u00e9silience d'une activit\u00e9 face aux risques physiques du changement climatique apr\u00e8s la mise au point d'Ocara (https://bit.ly/3W6LpTI ). La notation carbone d'une entreprise apr\u00e8s la mise au point de CIA (https://bit.ly/3FCFIYh ) et de CRIS (https://bit.ly/3F7CTNq). L'alignement (= la \"compatibilit\u00e9\") d'une infrastructure avec une trajectoire 2\u00b0C sur les \u00e9missions apr\u00e8s la mise au point de CIARA (https://lnkd.in/dAMBzut).\n\nEt, dans cette m\u00eame veine, nos premiers pas dans la biodiversit\u00e9 ont concern\u00e9 la cr\u00e9ation de m\u00e9thodes dont nous esp\u00e9rons qu'elles \"am\u00e8nent quelque chose\" \u00e0 la prise en compte de ces enjeux dans l'activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique.\n\nLa premi\u00e8re brique a \u00e9t\u00e9 Biodiversity Impact Analytics (https://bit.ly/3iMwdwQ ), d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 en partenariat avec la CDC Biodiversit\u00e9, et qui permet de \"noter\" les titres (actions ou obligations) d'une entreprise (c'est donc une m\u00e9thode destin\u00e9e au secteur financier). \n\nNous venons d'en publier une deuxi\u00e8me, portant sur des \"certificats biodiversit\u00e9\". De quoi s'agit-il ? De fournir une r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la question suivante : comment compter le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice associ\u00e9 \u00e0 une action qui vise \u00e0 restaurer de la biodiversit\u00e9, ou \u00e0 emp\u00eacher sa d\u00e9gradation ? En effet, si l'on veut attirer des moyens dans la pr\u00e9servation ou la restauration de la biodiversit\u00e9, il faut pouvoir comparer des alternatives entre elles pour savoir o\u00f9 ces moyens seront le plus utiles. Mais cela soul\u00e8ve de multiples questions.\n\nComment \u00e9valuer des gains biodiversit\u00e9 alors que la nature est souvent consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme \u00e9tant trop complexe pour \u00eatre mesur\u00e9e ? Peut-on d\u00e9velopper une m\u00e9thodologie universelle, robuste et facile \u00e0 mettre en \u0153uvre sur le terrain ? Comment d\u00e9passer la logique de compensation, dont on a vu les effets pervers en mati\u00e8re de climat ? Quelle doit \u00eatre la place des certificats dans la strat\u00e9gie biodiversit\u00e9 des entreprises ?\n\nCarbone 4 et le Mus\u00e9um national d'Histoire Naturelle ont con\u00e7u un cadre m\u00e9thodologique pour tenter de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 ces questions, que nous proposons aux personnes int\u00e9ress\u00e9es de d\u00e9couvrir et de commenter. Ce n'est bien \u00e9videmment qu'une premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape, mais il faut bien commencer un jour !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7006908706328059904,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7006908707229868032,urn:li:activity:7006908707229868032,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 57, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7006908707229868032,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7006908707229868032,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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Directeur du Projet d'entreprise. Membre du COMEX.Vice-Pr\u00e9sident de la Fondation SNCF.", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:7651076", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAAB0vwQBlSktLEmYdTdyOGWrd7KRp7YnXkA", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1617166213063?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=jkSa3vunXUPrGO39bw6CGVf_v2pQd-Q5FRKsdozekuc", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1617166213063?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=oRxuYz4FxnQKUlzDZpQVL2c4cZ_NjTOoMe3Jdu1ZL2c", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 350 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E16AQEQY-jW4ws5jg/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_" } }, "publicIdentifier": "mika\u00ebl-lemarchand", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1516278647887?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=E-hMUmZP67EMWIr_OWJg3zxR-zaGh92f239kNzlW6gc", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1516278647887?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=rzujsePk5rgQmqZj3-itViw7U7eYCbWv1ozx46StTRo", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1516278647887?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=jZz18hYdaIzdGh4SVmhKExX3cfjIZ3ETaMTx5JKHGNA", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1516278647887?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=JrI_z5CqwwKYbpkfuWhpTWepa_NIVw6yoQwBOQ1kvTY", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C5603AQHo0SxCAyGx4g/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "VeP0BXRkSsiXiRrVgVSdRw==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "On n'en attendait pas moins de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui \"h\u00e9berge\" l'un des auteurs de la commission qui a fix\u00e9 une trajectoire de prix pour la \"valeur tut\u00e9laire du carbone\" (Alain Quinet) : la SNCF a annonc\u00e9 qu'elle allait introduire un \"prix du carbone\" dans ses achats.\n\nLe m\u00e9canisme pr\u00e9cis n'est pas d\u00e9taill\u00e9 dans cet article de Novethic (et pas plus dans les autres articles qui sont disponibles dans l'espace public), mais, \"vu de Mars\" (pardon Elon, on t'emprunte ta future r\u00e9sidence secondaire), j'imagine qu'il s'agit de recalculer des prix en ajoutant \u00e0 l'offre en euros un montant correspondant au contenu carbone de l'offre (fourni ou d\u00e9duit du bilan carbone du fournisseur) multipli\u00e9 par le prix de la tonne de carbone (si ce n'est pas ce m\u00e9canisme, il serait int\u00e9ressant que Mika\u00ebl Lemarchand pr\u00e9cise en commentaire quelle proc\u00e9dure sera utilis\u00e9e).\n\nDans le monde des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s marchandes, seule la contrainte fait avancer les entreprises commerciales \u00e0 la bonne vitesse. La contrainte peut venir de la r\u00e9glementation, des clients, des ressources humaines (les \"ressources rares\" qui ont le choix de leur employeur orientent un peu l'action de ces derniers)...\n\nQue le client mette une haie \u00e0 franchir qui s'appelle le carbone va donc dans le bon sens. Accessoirement une partie des fournisseurs de la SNCF sont des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s importantes (de travaux publics, de mat\u00e9riel roulant ou fixe, etc) qui seront soumises \u00e0 l'obligation de publier un bilan carbone au titre de la nouvelle r\u00e9glementation europ\u00e9enne CSRD. \n\nUne des \"conditions aux limites\" qui fera de ce genre de mesure un acc\u00e9l\u00e9rateur de la d\u00e9carbonation s'appelle la formation. En effet, seule la formation large des salari\u00e9s permet de d\u00e9centraliser l'action et l'initiative de terrain apr\u00e8s avoir annonc\u00e9 une intention : sans cela, il faut garder une fonction centralis\u00e9e de d\u00e9cision et de contr\u00f4le qui g\u00e8re quasi-exclusivement le sujet et impose les r\u00e9sultats aux autres entit\u00e9s de l'entreprise, o\u00f9 il n'y aura alors que peu de capacit\u00e9 d'initiative ou de motivation (voire une franche r\u00e9sistance !).\n\nLa formation n'est \u00e9videmment jamais suffisante. Mais c'est une condition n\u00e9cessaire pour que les \"d\u00e9cisions intelligentes\" (et mettre le carbone dans la relation client-fournisseur en est une) produisent leurs pleins effets." } }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7006525348163014657,urn:li:activity:7006525348163014657,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 57, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7006525348163014657,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7006525348163014657,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Bien \u00e9videmment, nos d\u00e9m\u00eal\u00e9s avec un pays qui fournissait, avant conflit, 40% du gaz consomm\u00e9 dans l'Union, agissent comme un acc\u00e9l\u00e9rateur, mais le coup \u00e9tait parti. \n\nTelle est la conclusion \u00e0 laquelle nous parvenons au Shift Project, \u00e0 l'issue d'une analyse portant sur les possibilit\u00e9s d'approvisionnement en gaz de l'Union Europ\u00e9enne sous seule contrainte g\u00e9ologico-technique (on ne prend donc en consid\u00e9ration comme facteurs limitants que le contenu des gisements et la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire des infrastructures d'extraction et de transport) : https://bit.ly/3HhowJ7\n\nCe travail - soutenu financi\u00e8rement par le Minist\u00e8re des Arm\u00e9es, RTE et le BRGM - a \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9 avec comme mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re l'inventaire de la totalit\u00e9 des gisements mondiaux (y compris ceux restant \u00e0 d\u00e9couvrir) fourni par Rystad Energy, ainsi que les les perspectives de production par gisement, ou encore les contrats d\u00e9j\u00e0 pass\u00e9s en GNL pour chaque pays importateur et chaque pays producteur. \n\nLe graphique ci-dessous r\u00e9sume notre analyse. Il fournit les divers approvisionnements identifi\u00e9s (via gazoducs ou via contrats pour le GNL) pour l'Europe, ainsi que divers niveaux de consommation possibles :\n- la courbe orange est du \"tendanciel avec \u00e9conomies\"\n- la croix jaune est le point d'arriv\u00e9e en 2030 dans le sc\u00e9nario \"Fit for 55\"\n- la croix rouge est le point d'arriv\u00e9e dans \"Repower EU\" (https://bit.ly/3VUBy3s )\n\nOn voit facilement que la situation que nous allons vivre cette hiver ne devrait pas \u00eatre suivie d'un \"retour \u00e0 la normale\" sur les approvisionnements (et il se discute de savoir ce qu'est \"la normale\" quand la consommation de gaz devrait de toute fa\u00e7on baisser tr\u00e8s rapidement pour des raisons de climat !). \n\nPour remplacer les importations qui n'ont plus lieu par gazoduc il faut recourir au GNL, sur lequel nous sommes en concurrence croissante avec les pays asiatiques, et il n'y en aura pas pour tout le monde. En outre le pic mondial sur la production gazi\u00e8re (sous seule contrainte g\u00e9ologique) est attendu aux alentours de 2030 avec les donn\u00e9es fournies par Rystad. \n\nClimat ou pas, Ukraine ou pas, le coup \u00e9tait aussi parti sur le p\u00e9trole (https://bit.ly/3F7Ty3y ). Rappelons que le charbon est aussi en baisse subie depuis les ann\u00e9es 1950 (car les mines europ\u00e9ennes sont de plus en plus vides et le commerce international de ce pond\u00e9reux solide n'est pas si simple). \n\nQuand bien m\u00eame nous ne voudrions pas faire d'efforts parce que l'UE ce n'est que 10% des \u00e9missions, que les am\u00e9ricains ont une empreinte carbone individuelle 2 fois plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que la n\u00f4tre, etc, nous allons devoir d\u00e9carboner de toute fa\u00e7on. Il est plus qu'urgent de comprendre que nous sommes au d\u00e9but d'une \u00e9volution structurelle, et pas dans un accident de parcours." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7006225118406279168,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7006225119303880704,urn:li:activity:7006225119303880704,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 73, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7006225119303880704,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7006225119303880704,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7005825580357033984,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Alors m\u00eame que l'Etat fran\u00e7ais souhaite acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer sur les \u00e9nergies renouvelables (dont l'\u00e9olien et le solaire pour une large part), le contexte international fait ce qu'il peut pour contrarier ce plan, en rench\u00e9rissant fortement le cout des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res n\u00e9cessaires.\n\nLa raison ? C'est \"l'imbrication des \u00e9nergies\", \u00e9voqu\u00e9e par Jean-Baptiste Fressoz dans cette vid\u00e9o (et dans d'autres) qui date d'il y a quelques mois : https://lnkd.in/eWKNDxK9\n\nAujourd'hui, toutes les \u00e9nergies sont imbriqu\u00e9es les unes dans les autres. Il faut du charbon pour la m\u00e9tallurgie, du p\u00e9trole pour la chimie organique et les transports, et du gaz pour l'industrie et l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, et sans ces \u00e9nergies fossiles l'industrie mondialis\u00e9e est moins disponible, et donc le prix de n'importe quoi augmente... y compris celui des dispositifs de production \u00e0 base de vent et de soleil (et aussi le cout des composants pour le nucl\u00e9aire, bien s\u00fbr !).\n\nLes sc\u00e9narios \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques que nous avons discut\u00e9s ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es ignorent cette \u00e9ventualit\u00e9. Ils supposent que dans un monde se heurtant aux limites physiques nous conservons un cadre tranquille, sans accidents, sans p\u00e9nuries de mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, et sans disruptions des chaines mondialis\u00e9es qui permettent de s'approvisionner en tout et n'importe quoi \u00e0 prix sans cesse en baisse.\n\nIl y a donc une contradiction interne qui commence \u00e0 devenir visible : ces sc\u00e9narios supposent de garder le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice des combustibles fossiles (la formidable \"productivit\u00e9\" de l'\u00e9conomie) tout en se d\u00e9barrassant de ces m\u00eames combustibles. La traduction \u00e9conomique est des prix suppos\u00e9s rester bas pour les dispositifs ENR alors m\u00eame que ces ENR b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient de la productivit\u00e9 fossile.\n\nRTE a annonc\u00e9 publiquement il y a quelques mois avoir mis en chantier une variante de ses sc\u00e9narios appel\u00e9e \"mondialisation contrari\u00e9e\". Il est pertinent de penser les options possibles dans un monde o\u00f9 se procurer tout ce qui est lointain devient de plus en plus difficile, et o\u00f9 la productivit\u00e9 du travail (qui vient avant tout des machines, lesquelles sont avant tout nourries \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie fossile, et qui sont pour une large part situ\u00e9es \u00e0 l'ext\u00e9rieur du pays) est structurellement orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la baisse et non \u00e0 la hausse.\n\nPour d\u00e9sagr\u00e9able que soit peut-\u00eatre un exercice de pens\u00e9e consistant \u00e0 imaginer que tout puisse aller de travers, il correspond \u00e0 une \u00e9volution possible du monde (car gouverner c'est pr\u00e9voir !). Il y a fort \u00e0 parier que dans un tel cadre :\n- aucune option n'apparait comme sans risque (le risque premier \u00e9tant de ne \"pas y arriver\" et donc d'avoir des p\u00e9nuries \u00e9lectriques chroniques, et les impacts sur le fonctionnement du pays qui vont avec)\n- la hi\u00e9rarchie des options sera bien plus diff\u00e9renci\u00e9e que dans le monde \"en croissance verte\" de tous les sc\u00e9narios d\u00e9j\u00e0 publi\u00e9s (y compris ceux de l'Ademe).\n\nNous n'avons qu'un seul essai pour b\u00e2tir le syst\u00e8me \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 de 2100. Se tromper de plan est pour partie non rattrapable." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7005825580357033984,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7005825581208477696,urn:li:activity:7005825581208477696,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 34, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7005825581208477696,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7005825581208477696,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7579087810109670610)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Electricit\u00e9 : le gouvernement pr\u00e9pare les esprits aux coupures de courant by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/electricite-le-gouvernement-prepare-les-esprits-aux-coupures-de-courant-1884506" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Electricit\u00e9\u00a0: le gouvernement pr\u00e9pare les esprits aux coupures de courant" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7005603226947313664,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il aura fallu la menace de d\u00e9lestages en janvier pour que le pays se rappelle que toute notre soci\u00e9t\u00e9 moderne repose sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. De fait, sans \u00e9lectricit\u00e9, comment faire pour passer un coup de fil, accueillir les \u00e9l\u00e8ves \u00e0 l'\u00e9cole, conserver le lait au frais, maintenir une ligne de production, faire un retrait d'argent ou un virement, monter dans l'ascenseur, travailler n'importe o\u00f9 apr\u00e8s la tomb\u00e9e du jour ou dans un local sans fen\u00eatres, faire ses courses dans une grande surface (qui a besoin de lumi\u00e8re car il s'agit g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement d'un local borgne, et besoin de caisses enregistreuses), s'informer, ou faire avancer un train ? Il faut des \u00e9lectrons pour tout et partout aujourd'hui, y compris... pour apprendre qu'il n'y en aura peut-\u00eatre pas demain ! \n\nCe qui se discute actuellement, cependant, n'est pas comparable \u00e0 ce qui se passe dans Ravage de Barjavel (un roman bas\u00e9 sur la disparition instantan\u00e9e de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans une civilisation \"avanc\u00e9e\", avec retour \u00e0 la barbarie) : il est juste question de possibles d\u00e9lestages de 2 heures, avec un seul d\u00e9lestage par client pour l'ensemble de l'hiver.\n\nMais \u00e0 quelque chose malheur est bon : esp\u00e9rons que cet \u00e9pisode, qui nous fait toucher du doigt que le risque d'un d\u00e9faut d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 par manque de moyens de production est possible, va nous inciter (et inciter les politiques) \u00e0 consacrer plus de temps et d'intelligence \u00e0 bien peser les risques dans le choix d'un sc\u00e9nario \u00e9lectrique pour l'avenir. \n\nActuellement, nous voyons un peu la trace des choix faits dans le pass\u00e9 (pas que, il y a aussi le nucl\u00e9aire en r\u00e9paration ou maintenance en France) : capacit\u00e9s nucl\u00e9aires d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment abandonn\u00e9es (Allemagne, en Belgique et en France), moindre disponibilit\u00e9 du gaz qui devait \"assurer la transition\", modes intermittents qui ne sont pas compl\u00e9t\u00e9s par du stockage. \n\nLa cons\u00e9quence est \"juste\" un recours accru au charbon alors que le plan \u00e9tait de s'en passer (les \u00e9missions instantan\u00e9es de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 sont assez \u00e9lev\u00e9es \u00e0 l'heure o\u00f9 je tape ces lignes : https://lnkd.in/eRvA7w-a ), et \u00e9ventuellement un risque de quelques coupures courtes.\n\nMais le syst\u00e8me peut parfaitement devenir bien plus instable. Il suffit pour cela qu'il y ait de moins en moins de gaz \u00e0 l'avenir (rendez vous demain soir pour le savoir ! https://bit.ly/3h23tja ), pas plus de nucl\u00e9aire (ce qui sera le cas pour les 10 \u00e0 15 ans \u00e0 venir), pas beaucoup de capacit\u00e9s de stockage saisonnier (sans lesquels une hausse de l'\u00e9olien et du solaire ne contribuent que tr\u00e8s peu \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement), et pas plus - voire moins - de charbon. \n\nDans nos d\u00e9bats sur l'avenir \u00e9lectrique, nous avons souvent consid\u00e9r\u00e9 que le risque majeur \u00e9tait celui li\u00e9 \u00e0 un mode de production (le nucl\u00e9aire). En fait, il est d'abord de se retrouver avec un syst\u00e8me sur lequel on ne peut plus compter en toutes circonstances. En pareil cas il n'y a plus de sortie facile \u00e0 br\u00e8ve \u00e9ch\u00e9ance." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7005603226947313664,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7005603227807186944,urn:li:activity:7005603227807186944,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 146, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7005603227807186944,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7005603227807186944,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7777078811448406199)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "nature.com \u2022 11 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: EU climate plan sacrifices carbon storage and biodiversity for bioenergy by nature.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-04133-1#ref-CR1" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "EU climate plan sacrifices carbon storage and biodiversity for bioenergy" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7005239119605825536,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La biomasse est-elle \"neutre en carbone\" ? Dit autrement, lorsque l'on utilise de la biomasse (du bois b\u00fbche, des granul\u00e9s de bois, du biogaz, un \"biocarburant\"), peut-on compter pour z\u00e9ro les \u00e9missions de CO2 issues de la combustion du carbone organique contenu dans les v\u00e9g\u00e9taux utilis\u00e9s ?\n\nOui disent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement les inventaires d'\u00e9mission (dont le bilan carbone). Oui, dit actuellement la r\u00e9glementation europ\u00e9enne ou fran\u00e7aise. Certes il faut compter le carbone fossile utilis\u00e9 pendant le proc\u00e9d\u00e9 de transformation qui va de la plante jusqu'au vecteur \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique qui sera utilis\u00e9 (par exemple pour de l'\u00e9thanol qui remplace de l'essence, il faut compter le carburant et la fabrication du tracteur, la distillation du \"jus\" obtenu apr\u00e8s fermentation des betteraves ou du ma\u00efs, et encore quelques bricoles), mais le carbone qui \u00e9tait contenu dans la plante, non.\n\nCa se discute, explique un \"commentaire\" paru dans Nature (un \"commentaire\" est un article qui ne donne pas lieu \u00e0 un processus de revue par les pairs, la r\u00e9daction de la revue d\u00e9cidant seule si elle le prend ou pas). Car si l'on regarde au plan mondial, il y a de la d\u00e9forestation nette pour obtenir de nouvelles surfaces agricoles.\n\nSi l'Europe rajoute des cultures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques en plus des cultures alimentaires, il faut disposer de plus de surface au total. Soit l'Europe d\u00e9foreste chez elle, soit elle importe directement de la biomasse \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, et alors elle va accro\u00eetre encore plus la d\u00e9forestation \u00e0 l'ext\u00e9rieur, par effet de domino si ce n'est en direct. \n\nSi la population de l'Europe continue d'augmenter un peu, et que les r\u00e9gimes alimentaires ne changent pas, le recours accru \u00e0 la biomasse est donc assur\u00e9 d'engendrer plus de d\u00e9forestation de mani\u00e8re globale. \n\nIncidemment, les auteurs ont postul\u00e9 - de mani\u00e8re surprenante puisque le GIEC souligne abondamment le risque d'un stress accru sur les rendements agricoles - sur une augmentation \u00e0 l'avenir des rendements des cultures. Si l'on enl\u00e8ve cette hypoth\u00e8se optimiste, la conclusion est encore plus nette.\n\nIl y a 20 ans, nous aurions pu choisir d'\u00e9conomiser du gaz et du p\u00e9trole essentiellement par une baisse de la consommation (consommation des v\u00e9hicules neufs baissant bien plus vite, trafic a\u00e9rien limit\u00e9 en volume, r\u00e9novation plus vigoureuse des b\u00e2timents), ce qui aurait permis de diminuer la quantit\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole et de gaz utilis\u00e9s sans avoir besoin de compenser par la biomasse.\n\nEt aujourd'hui ? L'option nucl\u00e9aire en plus comme l'option \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ENR en plus prenant des d\u00e9cennies pour des quantit\u00e9s significatives, et la rotation du parc (de voitures, de b\u00e2timents r\u00e9nov\u00e9s) \u00e9tant lente, si nous voulons faire manger de la biomasse \u00e0 nos voitures et nos b\u00e2timents existants, il faut en manger moins nous-m\u00eames, sauf \u00e0 sacrifier un peu plus la biodiversit\u00e9. 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Derri\u00e8re cette question s'en cache une autre, qui est la m\u00eame mais \u00e0 des horizons de temps plus \u00e9loign\u00e9s : aurons nous du gaz les hivers d'apr\u00e8s ? The Shift Project vous propose d'assister, le 6 d\u00e9cembre prochain \u00e0 18h, \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sentation d'un travail qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9 par notre association et qui permet entre autres de disserter sur cette question. \n\nPlus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, nous fournirons notre analyse sur les possibilit\u00e9s \"physiques\" maximales (donc avec pour seules limites les capacit\u00e9s de production contraintes par la seule g\u00e9ologie, et les capacit\u00e9s de transport d\u00e9ployables \u00e0 l'avenir) d'approvisionnement en gaz de l'Union Europ\u00e9enne d'ici \u00e0 2050.\n\nNous avons utilis\u00e9 la m\u00eame m\u00e9thode que celle qui avait \u00e9t\u00e9 suivie pour les perspectives d'approvisionnement en p\u00e9trole dans l'Union Europ\u00e9enne d'ici \u00e0 2050 (https://lnkd.in/dwPcgve ). Nous avions alors eu acc\u00e8s \u00e0 une base de donn\u00e9es (non publique) recensant l'int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 des gisements p\u00e9troliers dans le monde, exploit\u00e9s ou non, incluant les gisements restants \u00e0 d\u00e9couvrir (en volume), et des experts du secteur (mentionn\u00e9s en t\u00eate du rapport) en ont d\u00e9duit, apr\u00e8s analyse, la production maximale possible d'ici \u00e0 2050, sous seule contrainte g\u00e9ologique, des 16 premiers pays fournissant l'Europe (qui sont aussi les 16 premiers producteurs mondiaux, hors Br\u00e9sil et Canada).\n\nNous avons reproduit la m\u00eame d\u00e9marche avec les gisements de gaz. Incidemment ces derniers sont pour partie aussi ceux fournissant du p\u00e9trole, puisqu'une partie du gaz produit dans le monde est issu de gisements mixtes (contenant du p\u00e9trole et du gaz).\n\nCe travail - in\u00e9dit en France dans l'espace public - a fait l'objet d'un financement sp\u00e9cifique de RTE (rappelons que 20% environ de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne \u00e9tait produite avec du gaz en 2021), de la Direction g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des relations internationales et de la strat\u00e9gie (DGRIS) du Minist\u00e8re des Arm\u00e9es, et du BRGM, le service g\u00e9ologique national (https://lnkd.in/etMp4BRp).\n\nC'est donc Mardi prochain que vous pourrez \"venir au r\u00e9sultat\". Sans divulg\u00e2cher le r\u00e9sultat, comme disent nos amis qu\u00e9becois, et sans mauvais jeu de mots, vous d\u00e9couvrirez en quoi, apr\u00e8s le p\u00e9trole (dont le flux entrant en Europe devrait baisser de mani\u00e8re massive d'ici \u00e0 2050 m\u00eame si la question climatique n'est pas g\u00e9r\u00e9e), ca risque aussi d'\u00eatre chaud pour le gaz...\n\nInscription gratuite \u00e0 partir de la page en lien dans l'image. Si vous \u00eates journaliste, une conf\u00e9rence de presse aura lieu le m\u00eame jour \u00e0 9h30 (d\u00e9tails d'inscription sur la m\u00eame page). A vos cols roul\u00e9s ! 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Russia is using energy as a weapon by economist.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.economist.com/interactive/graphic-detail/2022/11/26/high-fuel-prices-could-kill-more-europeans-than-fighting-in-ukraine-has" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Russia is using energy as a weapon" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7004364146745995264,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\"Ile ne passera pas l'hiver\" : cette vieille maxime rappelle que le froid tue. Il tue en direct car il augmente les risques cardiovasculaires (le froid stresse un peu le syst\u00e8me circulatoire), et en indirect car il favorise la survie des virus pendant leur s\u00e9jour dans l'air, et nous rassemble dans des int\u00e9rieurs peu ventil\u00e9s o\u00f9 la contamination est plus rapide (c'est pour ces deux raisons que les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies de grippe ont lieu l'hiver).\n\nChez les \u00eatres humains, une saison hivernale plus froide tue donc un peu plus (ce n'est pas le cas pour nombre de v\u00e9g\u00e9taux des moyennes latitudes, o\u00f9 un hiver trop doux n'\u00e9limine pas les ravageurs). En Europe, cet effet de surmortalit\u00e9 hivernale est d'autant plus prononc\u00e9 que la temp\u00e9rature moyenne du pays est \u00e9lev\u00e9e. Un hiver \"plus froid que la normale\" fait donc plus de morts au Portugal qu'en Finlande, parce que dans les pays du Nord les infrastructures sont con\u00e7ues \"\u00e0 la base\" pour prot\u00e9ger les gens du froid alors que ce n'est pas autant le cas au sud.\n\nPar ailleurs, quand les prix de l'\u00e9nergie sont \u00e9lev\u00e9s, les gens se chauffent moins, et cela fait des morts en plus. Cet effet avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 constat\u00e9 au Japon suite \u00e0 Fukushima, et avec l'envol\u00e9e des prix du gaz et de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 sur notre continent, il va malheureusement aussi s'appliquer l'hiver prochain (et possiblement les hivers d'apr\u00e8s, car nous n'avons pas fini d'avoir des sujets avec l'approvisionnement en gaz sur notre continent : https://lnkd.in/dmPNvP3V ).\n\nThe Economist a ainsi fait des simulations sur le nombre de morts que la guerre en Ukraine allait provoquer avec cet effet de hausse des prix. La conclusion est que les morts par d\u00e9faut de chauffage seront plus nombreux que ceux directement li\u00e9s au conflit. Mais \u00e9videmment ce ne sont pas les m\u00eames : sans que ce constat ne porte en quoi que ce soit un jugement de valeur, la guerre tue surtout des gens jeunes et \"bien portants\", le froid surtout des gens \u00e2g\u00e9s et/ou d\u00e9j\u00e0 en mauvaise condition sanitaire.\n\nCe serait en Italie que cet effet serait le plus ample, et en France et en Espagne le moins. \n\nCet \u00e9pisode rappelle qu'il y a une diff\u00e9rence importante entre la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 et la pauvret\u00e9 : les deux vont avec une baisse de l'\u00e9nergie utilis\u00e9e parce que nous nous passons de services auparavant utilis\u00e9s (par exemple des m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s chauff\u00e9s), mais dans le premier cas c'est d\u00e9sir\u00e9 et planifi\u00e9 (par exemple on optimise l'occupation des b\u00e2timents existants en diminuant l'\u00e9nergie pour chauffer ou refroidir le parc, mais sans diminuer le confort thermique des occupants), ce qui minimise les cons\u00e9quences d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ables ; dans le second c'est subi alors que nous n'avions rien demand\u00e9, et fatalement ca se passe moins bien." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7004364146745995264,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7004364148159471617,urn:li:activity:7004364148159471617,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 43, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7004364148159471617,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7004364148159471617,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8585409607354519917)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbone4.com \u2022 6 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Chaleur renouvelable : la grande oubli\u00e9e de la strat\u00e9gie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fran\u00e7aise ? | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/publication-chaleur-renouvelable" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Chaleur renouvelable : la grande oubli\u00e9e de la strat\u00e9gie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fran\u00e7aise ? | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7003671719206879232,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Quand on prononce l'expression \"\u00e9nergie renouvelable\", nombre d'entre nous vont inconsciemment remplacer \"\u00e9nergie\" par \"\u00e9lectricit\u00e9\", et, aid\u00e9s en cela par l'image d'Epinal du panneau solaire et de l'\u00e9olienne, au sein de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 on ne pense pas souvent aux barrages, pourtant la premi\u00e8re source d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 renouvelable dans le monde (16% du total vs environ 7% pour l'\u00e9olien et 4% pour le solaire) et en France.\n\nMais dans l'\u00e9nergie il n'y a pas que l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Carbone 4 vous propose une publication de 50 pages sur la chaleur, et plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment la chaleur renouvelable, qui, de fait, a re\u00e7u consid\u00e9rablement moins d'attention et de moyens de la part de la puissance publique que l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ces derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies, alors que la chaleur est bien plus fossile que l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans notre pays. D'o\u00f9 la question pos\u00e9e dans le titre : n'avons nous pas \"oubli\u00e9\" l'essentiel, sachant que la chaleur c'est 45% des usages \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques finaux en France (l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 c'est environ 20%).\n\nPompes \u00e0 chaleur a\u00e9rothermiques ou g\u00e9othermiques, pour le chauffage (chaleur basse temp\u00e9rature) ou l'industrie (chaleur haute temp\u00e9rature), bois, solaire thermique, biogaz... : l'\u00e9quipe de Carbone 4 a pass\u00e9 en revue les diverses sources \u00e9ligibles, leurs usages possibles, les potentiels, et les couts. \n\nComme dans l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, toutes les sources de chaleur renouvelable ne se valent pas : pas les m\u00eames gisements, pas les m\u00eames efficacit\u00e9s, pas les m\u00eames couts de mise en oeuvre et couts \u00e0 tonne de CO2 \u00e9vit\u00e9e. Comme pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, certaines sources sont b\u00e9n\u00e9fiques pour le CO2 mais pas sans contreparties sur d'autres impacts : c'est notamment le cas pour la biomasse et la biodiversit\u00e9. \n\n2 applications sont largement sous-d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es (au sens premier du terme : pas assez d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es) en France : le solaire thermique et la g\u00e9othermie (incluant les pompes \u00e0 chaleur).\n\nEn conclusion \"La d\u00e9carbonation de la chaleur en France ne suit pas une trajectoire qui permettrait d\u2019atteindre les objectifs fix\u00e9s dans la loi pour respecter une neutralit\u00e9 carbone \u00e0 horizon 2050\". Avant de savoir quoi faire pour que cette conclusion soit un peu moins valable, cette publication vous permet de comprendre de quelle situation nous partons (et en plus c'est gratuit, c'est pas beau \u00e7a ?)" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7003671719206879232,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7003671719844446208,urn:li:activity:7003671719844446208,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 144, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7003671719844446208,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7003671719844446208,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true 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Il est trop t\u00f4t pour savoir si cette COP aura contribu\u00e9, comme la COP 26, \u00e0 polariser l'opinion de mani\u00e8re plus prononc\u00e9e qu'avant (un article en libre acc\u00e8s dans Nature montre que la COP 26 a conduit la twittosph\u00e8re \u00e0 se polariser bien plus qu'avant, avec un camp \"d'anti\", largement pioch\u00e9 dans les milieux tr\u00e8s conservateurs, qui monte en puissance : https://lnkd.in/eVRJBvhn ).\n\nPar contre il est toujours temps de faire un bilan de l'\u00e9volution des \u00e9missions depuis la signature de la Convention Climat, au Sommet de la Terre en 1992. C'est en effet dans le cadre de cette Convention que se tiennent des rencontres annuelles depuis 1995, appel\u00e9es COP (Convention Of the Parties), qui donnent lieu \u00e0 de nombreux commentaires sur le fait qu'elles aient \u00e9t\u00e9 un succ\u00e8s ou un \u00e9chec.\n\nLe bilan que je vous propose est tout simplement la variation des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre entre 1992 et 2021 (graphique ci-dessous). Pour chaque gaz, et chaque source principale pour le CO2, j'ai regard\u00e9 de combien avaient vari\u00e9 les \u00e9missions de 1992 quand on les regarde aujourd'hui. Par exemple, les \u00e9missions de CO2 issu du charbon \u00e9taient en 2021 75% plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 qu'en 1992.\n\nPour l'ensemble du CO2 les \u00e9missions ont augment\u00e9 d'environ 60% en 29 ans, et ainsi de suite.\n\nDans l'ensemble des \u00e9nergies fossiles, c'est aujourd'hui le charbon qui engendre les \u00e9missions les plus fortes, mais c'est le gaz qui a connu la plus forte augmentation sur la p\u00e9riode. \n\n\"Lime calcination\" d\u00e9signe en fran\u00e7ais la calcination du calcaire, c'est \u00e0 dire la r\u00e9action qui a lieu dans les fours \u00e0 ciment (chauff\u00e9s \u00e0 plus de 1000 \u00b0C), o\u00f9 la mol\u00e9cule de calcaire - CaCO3 - est d\u00e9compos\u00e9e en chaux vive - CaO - et du CO2, ce dernier partant dans l'air. la chaux vive se combine avec d'autres min\u00e9raux (marne et argile) pour former le clinker qui, broy\u00e9, donnera le composant principal du ciment. Il se produit annuellement environ 4 milliards de tonnes de ciment dans le monde, conduisant \u00e0 l'\u00e9mission d'environ 2,5 milliards de tonnes de CO2.\n\nLe m\u00e9thane a augment\u00e9 de 25% sur la p\u00e9riode et les autres gaz (protoxyde d'azote et gaz halog\u00e9n\u00e9s) d'environ 50% Aucun n'a baiss\u00e9.\n\nEn regardant ce tableau il est \u00e9vident que d'avoir sign\u00e9 la Convention Climat n'a pour l'heure pas suffit \u00e0 inverser la tendance. On peut au moins en d\u00e9duire une conclusion simple : compter essentiellement sur ces r\u00e9unions pour r\u00e9gler le probl\u00e8me \"\u00e0 notre place\" est une illusion. Si nous voulons que les valeurs de ce graphique deviennent n\u00e9gatives (ce qui est l'objectif) il faudra prendre le taureau par les cornes dans chaque pays pris individuellement.\n\nEn Europe, comme de toute fa\u00e7on la d\u00e9crue d'approvisionnement en combustibles fossiles \u00e9tait amorc\u00e9e avant Poutine, la direction n'est pas n\u00e9gociable. Seules les modalit\u00e9s de la p\u00e9dagogie du probl\u00e8me et les modalit\u00e9s de gestion de la baisse le sont.\n\nDonn\u00e9es diverses et compilation de votre serviteur." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7003260989353689088,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7003260990230274048,urn:li:activity:7003260990230274048,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 54, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7003260990230274048,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7003260990230274048,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8036308201381245324)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: SONDAGE EXCLUSIF - Les Fran\u00e7ais trouvent peu lisible la politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique du gouvernement by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/societe/sondage-exclusif-les-francais-trouvent-illisible-la-politique-energetique-du-gouvernement-1881508" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "SONDAGE EXCLUSIF - Les Fran\u00e7ais trouvent peu lisible la politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique du gouvernement" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7002900349405569024,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un sondage effectu\u00e9 pour Les Echos sur la politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique du gouvernement est publi\u00e9 dans ce journal (\u00e9lectronique ; on devrait plut\u00f4t dire \"publi\u00e9 sur cet \u00e9cran !).\n\nIl fait appara\u00eetre quelques enseignements int\u00e9ressants :\n\n- aucune des questions reproduites dans l'article ne contient les mots \"p\u00e9trole\" ou \"gaz\". Les questions portent quasi-exclusivement sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (un travers classique des d\u00e9bats sur l'\u00e9nergie). Il y a une question sur l'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique qui peut \u00e9ventuellement s'interpr\u00e9ter en pensant p\u00e9trole, mais c'est tout.\n\n- ensuite les r\u00e9ponses sont parfois gentiment contradictoires les unes avec les autres (ce que fait remarquer l'article), parce que la r\u00e9ponse est souvent dans la question avec cette mani\u00e8re de proc\u00e9der. Les anglais posent souvent des questions comportant leurs propres contreparties (par exemple \"sachant que d'avoir au moins y% d'\u00e9olien demandera qu'\u00e0 un moment il y ait une \u00e9olienne de plus de z m de haut \u00e0 moins de x km de chez vous si vous habitez dans une agglom\u00e9ration de moins de N habitants, \u00eates vous favorable \u00e0 ce d\u00e9veloppement ?\" \n\n- nonobstant ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de on d\u00e9couvre (avec \u00e9tonnement pour moi parce que c'est probablement un revirement r\u00e9cent) que la construction de nouvelles centrales nucl\u00e9aires est vue plus favorablement que la construction de nouvelles \u00e9oliennes. \n\n- la strat\u00e9gie du gouvernement est consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme \"pas claire\" sur l'\u00e9nergie (en fait l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, donc). Mais il est impossible de savoir au vu de ce seul sondage si cela r\u00e9sulte du fait que le gouvernement est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme \"pas clair\" quoi qu'il fasse (ce qui est possible voire probable si le pouvoir en place a \u00e9t\u00e9 \"mal \u00e9lu\"), ou bien si l'\u00e9nergie - l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 donc - est \"nettement moins claire\" que le reste. Dans ce dernier cas il y a \u00e0 nouveau deux possibilit\u00e9s : que ce soit le r\u00e9sultat logique de revirements (sur le nucl\u00e9aire par exemple), ou un jugement qui cache en fait le d\u00e9sarroi face \u00e0 la valse actuelle des prix (la question n'est pas pos\u00e9e).\n\nSavoir ce que pensent nos concitoyens est essentiel en d\u00e9mocratie. Mais pour avoir une mati\u00e8re suffisamment d\u00e9taill\u00e9e pour en tirer des conclusions pour l'action (l'action pouvant inclure la p\u00e9dagogie du probl\u00e8me quand il est manifeste que ce dernier n'est pas bien appr\u00e9hend\u00e9), il faut aller au del\u00e0 des questions \"trop simples\" des sondages, qui donnent souvent une information incompl\u00e8te - et parfois incoh\u00e9rente - sur la hi\u00e9rarchie des pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences quand on ne peut pas tout avoir. La premi\u00e8re conclusion que je tire de la lecture des r\u00e9sultats est qu'il faut en savoir plus !\n\nNous n'aurons pas deux essais pour b\u00e2tir un syst\u00e8me d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 et durable au 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle. Pour se donner les meilleures chances d'y parvenir, il faut comprendre \u00e0 la fois les barri\u00e8res physiques et les pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences et barri\u00e8res sociales. Les sondages ne servent \u00e0 rien pour les premi\u00e8res, et pour les secondes il doivent imp\u00e9rativement \u00eatre compl\u00e9t\u00e9s par des analyses plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9es." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7002900349405569024,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7002900350407966720,urn:li:activity:7002900350407966720,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 51, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7002900350407966720,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7002900350407966720,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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morbidit\u00e9 chronique (affections bronchiques et pulmonaires notamment) qui peuvent conduire \u00e0 des invalidit\u00e9s partielles. Ce sont les pays de l'Est qui payent le plus lourd tribut \u00e0 cette pollution en nombre de vies perdues pour 100.000 habitants.\n\nLa pollution aux oxydes d'azote (qui vient de toute source de combustion) engendre elle aussi des morts pr\u00e9matur\u00e9 ainsi que du diab\u00e8te, et l'ozone des probl\u00e8mes respiratoires et aussi des morts pr\u00e9matur\u00e9s.\n\n90% de la population urbaine europ\u00e9enne est ainsi expos\u00e9e \u00e0 des niveaux de pollution qui exc\u00e8dent les seuils recommand\u00e9s par l'OMS. Les particules les plus fines viennent surtout de la combustion des \u00e9nergies fossiles : transports (qui sont aussi la premi\u00e8re source d'oxydes d'azote), chaudi\u00e8res de b\u00e2timents, et \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 faite au gaz et au charbon (une centrale \u00e0 charbon en rejette des dizaines de tonnes par milliard de kWh produit). \n\nDiminuer la quantit\u00e9 d'\u00e9nergies fossiles que nous utilisons a donc aussi un b\u00e9n\u00e9fice sanitaire. En fait il est m\u00eame double : passer \u00e0 plus de modes actifs dans les transports (marcher ou p\u00e9daler) \u00e9vite \u00e0 la fois des \u00e9missions de CO2 et de polluants locaux, et \u00e9vite de la s\u00e9dentarit\u00e9, qui est aussi un facteur important de baisse de la condition sanitaire. \n\nL'\u00e9quation n'est \u00e9videmment pas si simple, parce que, compar\u00e9 \u00e0 il y a un si\u00e8cle, l'\u00e9nergie abondante est aussi ce qui nous a amen\u00e9 la suffisance alimentaire (production accrue de nourriture et moyens de stockage et de transport performants), la protection contre les \u00e9l\u00e9ments (froid notamment), et la prophylaxie (eau potable, d\u00e9tergents et d\u00e9sinfectants). Mais il est tout \u00e0 fait possible de bouger progressivement le curseur pour conserver ces acquis tout en d\u00e9carbonant fortement notre mode de vie. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8423740630780296532)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \u00ab L'augmentation des tarifs de l'assurance est in\u00e9vitable \u00bb by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/finance-marches/banque-assurances/laugmentation-des-tarifs-de-lassurance-est-inevitable-1882711" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00ab\u00a0L'augmentation des tarifs de l'assurance est in\u00e9vitable\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7002220856265297920,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a fort fort longtemps, la gestion du risque se faisait en ne comptant que sur ses propres forces et une solidarit\u00e9 \"de proximit\u00e9\". Le paysan normand du Moyen Age qui avait de mauvaises r\u00e9coltes ne pouvait gu\u00e8re compter sur le proven\u00e7al ou le lorrain pour le sortir de ce mauvais pas. Le portugais qiu a vu sa maison d\u00e9truire par le s\u00e9isme de Lisbonne en 1755 ne pouvait pas vraiment compter sur le ch'ti ou m\u00eame le basque pour l'aider \u00e0 reconstruire plus vite.\n\nNous vivons aujourd'hui dans un monde o\u00f9 il en va tout autrement. Tout d'abord, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie abondante, la r\u00e9paration apr\u00e8s dommage est bien plus facile. Notre maison est reconstruite par des cimenteries, des camions, des grues et des aci\u00e9ries (donc de l'\u00e9nergie) ; les r\u00e9coltes insuffisantes ici sont compens\u00e9es par des cultures exc\u00e9dentaires \"ailleurs\" qui sont elles-m\u00eames produites et achemin\u00e9es gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des usines d'engrais, tracteurs, camions, entrep\u00f4ts et j'en passe (de l'\u00e9nergie \u00e0 nouveau).\n\nLa mise \u00e0 disposition des victimes des ressources physiques permettent de reconstruire ou compenser est par ailleurs effectu\u00e9e par la mise en commun de moyens \u00e9conomiques, par le biais de l'assurance.\n\nDeux \u00e9volutions vont venir contrarier ce m\u00e9canismes \u00e0 l'avenir :\n\n- le premier, largement \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans cette interview du DG de Groupama dans Les Echos, est l'augmentation des sinistres que l'\u00e9volution climatique va engendrer : r\u00e9coltes plus souvent atteintes, patrimoine b\u00e2ti plus souvent d\u00e9grad\u00e9 (voir \u00e0 ce propos https://bit.ly/3OH6C4f qui rappelle que la s\u00e9cheresse cause d'importants dommages par r\u00e9tractation gonflement des argiles)\n\n- le second, non \u00e9voqu\u00e9, est que notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 reconstruire va s'affaiblir, puisque la d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique va fatalement diminuer aussi la quantit\u00e9 d'acier, de ciment, de camions et de grues dont nous pourrons disposer.\n\nLa traduction \u00e9conomique de cette double \u00e9volution n'est pas difficile \u00e0 deviner, et c'est exactement celle \u00e9voqu\u00e9e dans cette interview : des primes plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es (il va donc y avoir aussi de l'inflation \"r\u00e9elle\" - rapport\u00e9e au revenu en clair - dans l'assurance, comme en fait partout d\u00e8s lors que les ressources physiques baissent ; c'est m\u00e9canique) et des dommages moins bien couverts (l'interview\u00e9 parle d'exclusion croissante de certains biens de l'assurance dommage des habitations par exemple).\n\nDans un monde structurellement inflationniste par rapport aux revenus r\u00e9els, nous allons devoir renoncer. Il est probablement plus facile de renoncer \u00e0 la 5G pour regarder Netflix dans le m\u00e9tro, \u00e0 la construction de stades climatis\u00e9s pour jouer au foot, ou au Black Friday pour avoir un v\u00eatement en plus, que de renoncer \u00e0 garder un toit en cas de coup dur ou avoir de quoi manger si le climat est adverse.\n\nEn tout \u00e9tat de cause, cette interview rappelle - m\u00eame si ce n'est pas sympathique - qu'\u00e0 ne vouloir rien abandonner nous prenons le risque de perdre beaucoup plus." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7002220856265297920,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7002220857016119296,urn:li:activity:7002220857016119296,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 102, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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M\u00eame \u00e0 l\u2019automne, la s\u00e9cheresse reste d\u2019actualit\u00e9 en Espagne by courrierinternational.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.courrierinternational.com/article/climat-meme-a-l-automne-la-secheresse-reste-d-actualite-en-espagne" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Climat. M\u00eame \u00e0 l\u2019automne, la s\u00e9cheresse reste d\u2019actualit\u00e9 en Espagne" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7001982090997047297,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Cela fait maintenant 2 mois que c'est l'automne. Normalement c'est la saison des feuilles mortes, et surtout l'\u00e9poque d'un temps nettement plus humide que ne l'a \u00e9t\u00e9 la p\u00e9riode estivale.\n\nMais en Espagne il y a eu un d\u00e9ficit de pr\u00e9cipitations d'environ 25% depuis le 1er septembre, rapporte Courrier International. En cons\u00e9quence, les r\u00e9serves d'eau sont bien plus vides que celles de gaz, et notre voisin va devoir imposer des restrictions sur l'usage de l'eau alors que nous devrions ne plus avoir de tels probl\u00e8mes \u00e0 cette \u00e9poque.\n\nLa France n'est pas non plus \u00e9pargn\u00e9e en totalit\u00e9 : il y a encore de nombreuses r\u00e9gions en France qui sont toujours en niveau \"crise\" pour l'approvisionnement en eau : https://lnkd.in/gG9eZM8\n\nRappelons, m\u00eame si ce n'est pas dr\u00f4le, qu'il est pr\u00e9vu que la d\u00e9rive climatique entra\u00eene une baisse des pr\u00e9cipitations sur toute la partie sud de l'Europe, Espagne et France comprises. Cela va mettre sous pression la production agricole, les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes, la production hydro\u00e9lectrique, et les infrastructures, puisque la s\u00e9cheresse favorise la r\u00e9tractation-gonflement des argiles, qui peut fortement d\u00e9grader une bonne partie des b\u00e2timents et voies de communication construits r\u00e9cemment (https://lnkd.in/ee_AXXbQ ).\n\nIl n'est donc toujours pas temps d'utiliser l'expression \"beau temps\" quand il fait soleil. Il faudrait attendre la disparition de la totalit\u00e9 des restrictions d'usage de l'eau en France et en Espagne !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7001982090997047297,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7001982091718443008,urn:li:activity:7001982091718443008,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 59, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7001982091718443008,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7001982091718443008,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7798340498303405476)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbone4.com \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Black Friday, de bonnes affaires sauf pour le climat | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/analyse-black-friday" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Black Friday, de bonnes affaires sauf pour le climat | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7001543092034011136,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le \"Vendredi noir\" commence demain (et est devenu un week-end noir en pratique, m\u00eame s'il n'est pas question d'accidents de la route). Cette f\u00eate commerciale venue tout droit des USA apr\u00e8s Halloween (\"where else\" pourrait demander un acteur c\u00e9l\u00e8bre) est une incitation de plus \u00e0 se ruer dans les magasins puis sur son compte en banque pour acheter \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 prix des choses sans lesquelles nous allons n\u00e9cessairement nous trouver tr\u00e8s mal.\n\nCette journ\u00e9e de promotion augmente de mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s forte les ventes en ligne, qui elles-m\u00eames augmentent de mani\u00e8re forte le fret a\u00e9rien - le plus polluant de tous - ainsi que la livraison du dernier kilom\u00e8tre, bien plus souvent faite en camionnette qu'en v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique.\n\nC'est une des cons\u00e9quences du fait que les objets promus sont rarement fabriqu\u00e9s en France, qu'il s'agisse d'\u00e9lectrom\u00e9nager, de v\u00eatements, ou encore d'\u00e9lectronique. Sur ce dernier poste, du reste, cette journ\u00e9e vient se combiner avec la coupe du monde, qui, dans le pass\u00e9, a \u00e9t\u00e9 un gros acc\u00e9l\u00e9rateur de la vente de t\u00e9l\u00e9visions \u00e0 grand \u00e9cran (pour mieux voir les matchs), des objets eux-m\u00eames tr\u00e8s \u00e9nergivores \u00e0 la fabrication. \n\nUn petit clic sur un site de vente en ligne sera donc une petite claque pour le climat, puisque les objets command\u00e9s n'arrivent pas par pigeon voyageur, ne sont pas fabriqu\u00e9s uniquement en rotin dans le village d'\u00e0-cot\u00e9, et poussent \u00e0 la hausse la fabrication d'emballages... et les d\u00e9chets qui vont avec.\n\nUne autre cons\u00e9quence de la fabrication \"lointaine\" des objets sur lesquels nous allons nous ruer est que leur consommation accrue d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre la balance commerciale (puisque quasiment tout est import\u00e9). \n\nCette incitation \u00e0 faire un peu plus les cigales ne va donc pas vraiment dans la bonne direction c\u00f4t\u00e9 climat, comme le rappelle cet article publi\u00e9 sur le site de Carbone 4, et n'est pas vraiment raccord avec la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 tant vant\u00e9e par le gouvernement (mais nous ne sommes pas \u00e0 une contradiction pr\u00e8s). \n\nPlut\u00f4t que de singer les am\u00e9ricains, nous devrions faire un Vendredi vert, avec des promotions sur les v\u00e9los (qu'il faut fabriquer plus en France, composants inclus), les isolants pour les murs, les pompes \u00e0 chaleur et la reprise des cols de chemise \u00e9lim\u00e9s !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7001543092034011136,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7001543092705095681,urn:li:activity:7001543092705095681,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 270, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/augustin-de-romanet-laerien-doit-cesser-la-course-au-volume-1880072" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Augustin de Romanet\u00a0: \u00abLa course au volume dans l'a\u00e9rien doit passer apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9carbonation\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7001300259519758336,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Si dans une interview vous lisez les propos suivants :\n- qu'il faut faire passer la d\u00e9carbonation avant la croissance en volume dans l'a\u00e9rien\n- qu'il est d\u00e9raisonnable de multiplier les vols long-courriers pour un week-end ou quelques jours de vacances\n- que si les gens ne sont pas raisonnables il finira par y avoir des quotas de vols par an et par personne\n\n\u00e0 qui aurez vous envie de les attribuer ? \n\nUne premi\u00e8re r\u00e9ponse \"intuitive\" ne sera probablement pas l'auteur effectif de ces propos, \u00e0 savoir... le patron d'A\u00e9roports de Paris. Et pourtant c'est tr\u00e8s exactement ce qui est contenu dans cette interview parue dans Les Echos.\n\nCertes l'auteur des propos ajoute qu'il n'est pas favorable \u00e0 de tels quotas, et qu'il ne souhaite pas que l'on prive les fran\u00e7ais de la possibilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9couvrir le monde gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l'avion. Mais il n'emp\u00eache : cet appel \u00e0 la mod\u00e9ration est une premi\u00e8re dans le secteur a\u00e9rien en France, o\u00f9 la r\u00e8gle jusqu'\u00e0 maintenant \u00e9tait plut\u00f4t que la technique allait se charger de r\u00e9gler la question carbonique pendant que le trafic poursuivrait sa croissance, et qu'il \u00e9tait hors de question d'entraver cette derni\u00e8re volontairement.\n\nLa situation actuelle n'est pourtant pas durable. L'aviation consommait environ 8% du p\u00e9trole mondial avant covid. Si on transformait en agrocarburants la totalit\u00e9 des 4 premi\u00e8res cultures mondiales (bl\u00e9 - ma\u00efs - riz - soja) cela ferait \"juste\" 25% du p\u00e9trole mondial : il est d\u00e8s lors difficile d'imaginer que l'on va massivement se priver de cultures v\u00e9g\u00e9tales (au surplus dans un monde o\u00f9 les rendements vont \u00eatre attaqu\u00e9s par le r\u00e9chauffement climatique) pour avoir simplement le plaisir de passer d'un continent \u00e0 l'autre pour aller \u00e0 l'h\u00f4tel. \n\nCertes si on d\u00e9vie massivement des cultures pour alimenter des avions plut\u00f4t que des estomacs ce ne seront pas les m\u00eames qui profiteront des voyages et qui auront faim, mais quand m\u00eame.\n\nSi l'on parle d'hydrog\u00e8ne, pour servir en carburant les avions d\u00e9collant de France il faudrait y consacrer un petit quart de la production \u00e9lectrique fran\u00e7aise : l\u00e0 aussi je pense que toute personne un peu sens\u00e9e ne prendra pas le pari sur ses propres \u00e9conomies que l'on va y arriver bient\u00f4t.\n\nDonc oui, dans un monde sans carbone et donc sans p\u00e9trole il y aura beaucoup moins d'avions qu'aujourd'hui. Se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 la d\u00e9crue dans ce domaine n'est surement pas l'option la plus confortable intellectuellement \u00e0 court terme, mais \u00e0 un horizon plus lointain c'est n\u00e9anmoins la meilleure. 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"text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Si cette information rapport\u00e9e par Le Monde est exacte, la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration Internationale de Football (FIFA) a des progr\u00e8s \u00e0 faire en mati\u00e8re de compr\u00e9hension de la science du climat.\n\nDe Google \u00e0 Microsoft, en passant par le transport a\u00e9rien ou... La Poste, de nombreuses entreprises ou organisations ont affirm\u00e9 pouvoir r\u00e9duire leur impact sur le climat \u00e0 z\u00e9ro par le biais de la \"compensation\". La technique est en apparence simple et de bon gout : on compte les \u00e9missions associ\u00e9es \u00e0 l'organisation (id\u00e9alement en les limitant au plus petit p\u00e9rim\u00e8tre possible), puis on ach\u00e8te des \"cr\u00e9dits carbone\" qui sont cens\u00e9s correspondre \u00e0 des \u00e9missions \u00e9vit\u00e9es (ou du carbone s\u00e9questr\u00e9 par reforestation) ailleurs, et le tour est jou\u00e9 : plus et moins ca fait z\u00e9ro.\n\nSauf que... pour les raisons expliqu\u00e9es en r\u00e9sum\u00e9 sur https://lnkd.in/dGTt6Zs , cette approche n'a pas de fondement scientifique. Elle donne donc au final l'illusion que l'activit\u00e9 consid\u00e9r\u00e9e peut continuer comme aujourd'hui dans un monde neutre en carbone, alors que c'est l'exact inverse qui est vrai : dans un tel monde, la quasi-totalit\u00e9 des organisations ou entreprises ne peuvent garder les m\u00eames clients, pour leur vendre la m\u00eame chose, fabriqu\u00e9e ou mise \u00e0 disposition de la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re. \n\nPar ailleurs la comptabilit\u00e9 m\u00eame des cr\u00e9dits carbone est tr\u00e8s discutable : elle ne tient pas compte du moment effectif d'\u00e9vitement (maintenant ou beaucoup plus tard), et attribue \u00e0 l'acheteur du cr\u00e9dit la totalit\u00e9 des \u00e9missions \u00e9vit\u00e9es par un projet alors m\u00eame que l'acheteur ne finance qu'une partie de ce qui permet cet \u00e9vitement. \n\nLa FIFA nous raconte donc des salades en consid\u00e9rant que, dans un monde sans \u00e9missions du tout, elle pourra continuer \u00e0 organiser des manifestations demandant 1 million de touristes a\u00e9roport\u00e9s, se rendant dans un stade climatis\u00e9, l'ensemble \u00e9tant financ\u00e9 par des recettes publicitaires de vendeurs de tout un tas de trucs qui ne pourront plus fabriquer une large partie de leurs produits.\n\nCette affirmation de \"neutralit\u00e9\" est - c'est de circonstance - se mettre la t\u00eate dans le sable, parce que \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence dans un monde sans \u00e9missions les manifestations sportives \"plan\u00e9taires\" seront plus rares et plus modestes.\n\nEt, pour parler de neutralit\u00e9, la bonne approche est de compter s\u00e9par\u00e9ment sa contribution aux puits et ses \u00e9missions induites, et de se demander ce qui passe toujours dans un monde o\u00f9 les \u00e9missions globales baissent de 5% par an. Le bagage m\u00e9thodologique existe pour cela (voir https://lnkd.in/db7JzB2q ), mais s'y lancer demande \u00e9videmment plus de courage que de faire un communiqu\u00e9 de presse sans fondement !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7000731728361222144,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7000731729195888642,urn:li:activity:7000731729195888642,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 129, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7000731729195888642,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7000731729195888642,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:7000475428607901696,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les Echos sont tomb\u00e9s dans le panneau... publicitaire de certains \u00e9lus locaux. Un certain nombre de communes revendiquent d\u00e9sormais une \"autonomie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\". Cette expression v\u00e9hicule explicitement l'id\u00e9e qu'un territoire pourrait se replier sur lui-m\u00eame, et vivre \u00e0 l'avenir en ne comptant que sur ses propres forces. Fini la d\u00e9pendance aux autres, et en route vers le paradis !\n\nMalheureusement, cette expression rel\u00e8ve d'une illusion d'optique. Tout d'abord, m\u00eame en se limitant aux consommations directes des m\u00e9nages (sans parler des entreprises, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement non prises en compte), l'\u00e9nergie consid\u00e9r\u00e9e est le plus souvent (voire quasiment toujours ) limit\u00e9e \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, le gaz \u00e9tant parfois (mais rarement) inclus. C'est oublier un peu vite que la premi\u00e8re \u00e9nergie finale consomm\u00e9e en France c'est le p\u00e9trole. Et les puits de p\u00e9trole sont rares en France !\n\nM\u00eame les communes qui produiraient des cultures pour agrocarburants ne peuvent utiliser ces derniers purs : il n'existe pas de moteur de voiture \u00e0 l'\u00e9thanol ou \u00e0 l'huile de colza en France. \n\nEnsuite une large partie de l'\u00e9nergie consomm\u00e9e par les m\u00e9nages est incorpor\u00e9e dans les aliments, v\u00eatements, objets et services publics ou priv\u00e9s dont ils b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient : o\u00f9 est l'autonomie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique quand on d\u00e9pend des mines de charbon australiennes et de la marine marchande mondiale pour avoir des objets en acier ?\n\nEnfin cette notion \"d'autonomie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\" (et \"d'\u00e9nergie positive\") est apparue avec les renouvelables. Je n'ai jamais entendu une commune poss\u00e9dant un barrage ou une centrale nucl\u00e9aire la revendiquer, alors qu'elle serait nettement plus justifi\u00e9e dans ces derniers cas si le concept \u00e9tait valide !\n\nIncidemment, si l'autonomie uniquement \u00e9lectrique \u00e9tait r\u00e9elle pour les communes qui la revendiquent \u00e0 cause de leurs \u00e9oliennes (cas \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans l'article), cela signifierait que l'on pourrait couper la commune en question du r\u00e9seau national (si on est autonome on n'a plus besoin des autres, correct ?). Mais... avoir une production annuelle \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 la consommation annuelle ne garantirait pas pour autant de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 aux habitants concern\u00e9s les jours avec peu ou pas de vent. Ces communes restent d\u00e9pendantes du r\u00e9seau et donc... ne sont pas autonomes, m\u00eame pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9.\n\nEn fait, dans notre pays, aucune commune ne peut s'extraire de la mondialisation (et donc de l'\u00e9nergie utilis\u00e9e \"ailleurs\"), qui fournit \u00e0 nos habitants logements (qui contiennent de l'acier alors que nous n'avons plus de minerai de fer en France), v\u00e9hicules, aliments et v\u00eatements, et m\u00eame... les \u00e9oliennes qui rendent \"autonomes\" qui sont fabriqu\u00e9es ailleurs !\n\nCela ne nous fait pas courir plus vite dans la bonne direction que de se tromper sur le sens des mots. Pire : en cr\u00e9ant l'illusion d'une s\u00e9curit\u00e9 qui n'existe pas, nous augmentons le risque." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7000475428607901696,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7000475429773963264,urn:li:activity:7000475429773963264,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 133, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7000475429773963264,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7000475429773963264,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7567828376856683698)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lecho.be \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Jean-Marc Jancovici (The Shift Project): \"Si votre entreprise ne parvient pas \u00e0 d\u00e9carboner, elle devra t\u00f4t ou tard fermer boutique\" by lecho.be", "actionTarget": "https://www.lecho.be/dossiers/climat/jean-marc-jancovici-the-shift-project-si-votre-entreprise-ne-parvient-pas-a-decarboner-elle-devra-tot-ou-tard-fermer-boutique/10429041" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Jean-Marc Jancovici (The Shift Project): \"Si votre entreprise ne parvient pas \u00e0 d\u00e9carboner, elle devra t\u00f4t ou tard fermer boutique\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": 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"https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C560BAQFTN0BHZgn0qw/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "les-shifters", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:13651404", "trackingId": "qekdMpEHRuCpB2lwBapOYQ==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "A l'occasion d'un p\u00e9riple en Belgique organis\u00e9 par Les Shifters (belges !), l'Echo a publi\u00e9 une interview de votre serviteur. COP 27, hydrog\u00e8ne, sobri\u00e9t\u00e9, nucl\u00e9aire, d\u00e9croissance, taxe carbone et capitalisme (entre autres) ont fait l'objet du classique jeu de questions-r\u00e9ponses. Je profite de l'occasion pour rappeler quelques pr\u00e9cautions d'emploi en pareil cas.\n\nApr\u00e8s une interview (que je ne sollicite jamais, pas plus qu'un portrait, exercice que je trouve plein d'effets pervers), le texte publi\u00e9 est r\u00e9dig\u00e9 par le/la journaliste que j'ai rencontr\u00e9(e), et non par bibi. M\u00eame si je demande toujours \u00e0 me relire, le r\u00e9sultat n'est jamais ce que j'aurais \u00e9crit si j'avais r\u00e9dig\u00e9 les r\u00e9ponses en partant de z\u00e9ro.\n\nEn particulier, mon style oral et mon style \u00e9crit sont diff\u00e9rents. A l'oral, l'intonation, l'expression faciale ou le contexte autorisent des tournures qui ne prennent pas la m\u00eame signification \u00e0 l'\u00e9crit, sans ces \"\u00e0-c\u00f4t\u00e9s\". La seule mani\u00e8re d'\u00e9viter les malentendus est d'utiliser un style adapt\u00e9 \u00e0 chaque cas.\n\nPourtant, les transcriptions \u00e9crites reprennent souvent une partie des verbatim de l'interview. Cela peut donner une impression injustifi\u00e9e de radicalit\u00e9 qui n'aurait pas exist\u00e9 en style \u00e9crit utilis\u00e9 d'embl\u00e9e.\n\nUne autre pr\u00e9caution d'usage concerne le chap\u00f4 qui pr\u00e9sente l'interview\u00e9(e) : il est fait par la r\u00e9daction du journal, sans relecture, et n'engage pas la personne concern\u00e9e. C'est aussi le cas pour tout \"portrait\" publi\u00e9 dans la presse.\n\nIncidemment, \"ma\" page Wikipedia est un portrait parmi d'autres, essentiellement bas\u00e9 sur des portraits ou avis de journalistes rapportant des avis de tiers (il suffit de regarder les r\u00e9f\u00e9rences), soit de l'information de 3\u00e8 main ou plus. Je n'en ai pas \u00e9crit une ligne, et elle comporte plusieurs dizaines d'erreurs factuelles ou de conclusions erron\u00e9es.\n\nL'Echo a repris l'expression \"rock star de l'\u00e9cologie\" utilis\u00e9e r\u00e9cemment par Le Monde. S'exprimer parfois dans des amphis bien remplis n'est pas vraiment comparable \u00e0 remplir le Stade de France ! M\u00eame avec l'audience digitale, le compte n'y est pas : sur Youtube \"ma\" vid\u00e9o la plus regard\u00e9e d\u00e9passe 3 millions de vues ; pour Rihanna ou DJ Khaled on d\u00e9passe le milliard de vues (https://bit.ly/3Ep4nhb ).\n\nEnfin l'expression servant de titre correspond toujours \u00e0 un sujet \u00e9voqu\u00e9, mais pas n\u00e9cessairement celui sur lequel j'ai le plus insist\u00e9, alors que c'est l'impression que cela donne. Cet effet s'amplifie si d'autres journalistes reprennent cette expression comme si elle \u00e9tait de moi mot \u00e0 mot : ce qui \u00e9tait une mise en exergue d'un(e) journaliste devient ce qui fait foi !\n\nTout ca pour dire que, pour moi comme pour n'importe qui, la seule chose qui m'engage est ce que j'\u00e9cris en direct, ou prononce \u00e0 l'oral dans un enregistrement non mont\u00e9. Tout le reste incorpore peu ou prou l'avis de quelqu'un d'autre, m\u00eame une interview. Dans le cas pr\u00e9sent on est dans la nuance, mais dans un portrait il peut y avoir des erreurs grossi\u00e8res." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:7000055381280313344,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:7000055382219837440,urn:li:activity:7000055382219837440,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 51, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7000055382219837440,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:7000055382219837440,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8045091743199397876)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtl.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: COP 27 : Jean-Marc Jancovici explique pourquoi \u00e7a n'est pas un succ\u00e8s by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/actu/debats-societe/cop27-jean-marc-jancovici-explique-pourquoi-ca-n-est-pas-un-succes-7900207731" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "COP 27 : Jean-Marc Jancovici explique pourquoi \u00e7a n'est pas un succ\u00e8s" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6999689019898871808,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Que penser de la COP 27, qui se termine (normalement) aujourd'hui en Egypte ? Rien de plus et rien de moins que ce qu'il faut penser des autres COP, ai-je tent\u00e9 d'expliquer aujourd'hui aux auditrices et auditeurs (matinaux !) de RTL : le processus onusien conduira par nature \u00e0 aboutir \u00e0 un texte qui ne peut pas juridiquement contraindre quelque pays que ce soit \u00e0 faire plus que ce qu'il d\u00e9sire d\u00e9j\u00e0 faire.\n\nRappelons que, depuis le Trait\u00e9 de Westphalie, les \u00e9tats sont souverains : un \u00e9tat ne peut imposer \u00e0 un autre ses r\u00e8gles par le droit. Le processus onusien en prend acte, et demande \u00e0 ce que les d\u00e9cisions soient prises \u00e0 l'unanimit\u00e9 et par consensus. Une telle dynamique conduit n\u00e9cessairement \u00e0 un texte qui ne cr\u00e9e aucune obligation nouvelle significative pour les pays.\n\nIl y a eu une exception dans l'histoire des COP, que je rappelle dans cette chronique, et qui a pourtant correspondu \u00e0 l'ann\u00e9e o\u00f9 la presse a conclu le plus rapidement que cela avait \u00e9t\u00e9 un \u00e9chec : Copenhague (la COP 15, en 2009). \n\nLes \"moins de 2\u00b0C\" d\u00e9sormais associ\u00e9s \u00e0 l'Accord de Paris datent en effet... de Copenhague, comme toutes les autres dispositions fortes qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 avalis\u00e9es \u00e0 Paris. Et ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments ont pu \u00eatre act\u00e9s parce que Copenhague a \u00e9t\u00e9, de fa\u00e7on impr\u00e9vue, la seule COP qui ait \u00e9t\u00e9 une OPA du G20 sur les Nations Unies. \n\nAu retour de la COP - o\u00f9 j'avais \u00e9t\u00e9 les 15 jours - j'avais pris la plume pour expliquer pourquoi elle \u00e9tait en fait l'un des rares succ\u00e8s des discussions internationales : https://bit.ly/3GuuPIT Ce mot d'\u00e9chec est arriv\u00e9 parce que c'est le processus et non le fond qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 comment\u00e9 par les ONG, les seules \u00e0 pouvoir s'exprimer dans la presse \u00e0 l'approche de la fin de la COP, alors que les d\u00e9l\u00e9gations nationales \u00e9taient tenues au silence devant la r\u00e9union des pr\u00e9sidents en cours.\n\nComme les danois avaient fait une erreur logistique en ne pr\u00e9voyant pas assez de place pour laisser rentrer tout le monde la 2\u00e8 semaine (alors que les d\u00e9l\u00e9gations pr\u00e9sidentielles \u00e9taient arriv\u00e9s en masse), les repr\u00e9sentants des ONG \u00e9taient pass\u00e9s de 5000 \u00e0... 90, et ceux toujours admis \u00e0 rentrer dans l'enceinte de la COP \u00e9taient du coup tr\u00e8s \u00e9nerv\u00e9s par ce qu'elles consid\u00e9raient \u00eatre une entorse majeure au principe de transparence des n\u00e9gociations. \n\nSi on y ajoute la forme de la discussion (exit les d\u00e9l\u00e9gations nationales, remplac\u00e9es au pied lev\u00e9 par des pr\u00e9sidents discutant en direct dans une salle), cette fin de COP n'avait plus rien d'onusien, et c'est cela qui a conduit les ONG \u00e0 parler d'\u00e9chec \u00e0 la presse, constat discutable mais devenu depuis l'\u00e9vidence pour le public. \n\nC'est pourtant \u00e0 cet \"\u00e9chec\" que l'on doit l'objectif politique des 2\u00b0C, d\u00e9sormais si pr\u00e9cieux pour cadrer toute l'action - m\u00eame insuffisante - des entreprises et des \u00e9tats dans les d\u00e9bats domestiques. \n\nSi, du point de vue du formalisme onusien, elle est un succ\u00e8s, la COP 27 ne changera pas plus le cours des choses \"\u00e0 notre place\" que les autres. Quoi qu'en dise la presse..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6999689019898871808,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6999689020733554688,urn:li:activity:6999689020733554688,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 71, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6999689020733554688,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6999689020733554688,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6999689020733554688", "threadId": 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7401995635390681707)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Carrefour acte le d\u00e9classement de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/editos-analyses/carrefour-acte-le-declassement-de-la-societe-francaise-1879303" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Carrefour acte le d\u00e9classement de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6999439942372229121,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Vive la croissance verte ! Vous savez, celle qui ne suppose pas de consommer plus de ressources, et qui va donc permettre de marier PIB en hausse et flux physiques en baisse.\n\nSauf que... cette croissance l\u00e0, \u00e0 supposer qu'elle arrive, ne permet pas d'avoir la constance en volume des objets parfaitement mat\u00e9riels que les fran\u00e7aises et les fran\u00e7ais ach\u00e8tent. Et il se trouve que, pour le moment, et probablement pour un certain temps encore, les brosses \u00e0 dents, machines \u00e0 laver, m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s de moquette, pantalons, produits alimentaires, m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s de logement, tonnes de voitures, sans oublier les m\u00e8tres cubes de gaz ou d'eau qui entrent dans un logement sont parfaitement mat\u00e9riels.\n\nSi les flux physiques de production baissent parce que la quantit\u00e9 d'\u00e9nergie disponible - et donc la quantit\u00e9 de machines au travail - baisse, peu importe la fa\u00e7on dont les choses se passeront sur le plan des prix : de fait il sera plus difficile \u00e0 la population de ce procurer tout ce qui est \"physique\", du tube de colle aux kilom\u00e8tres en voiture, en passant par les t\u00e9l\u00e9phones, les cartables et les p\u00e2tes \u00e0 la tomate.\n\nOr, l'\u00e9nergie disponible baisse en Europe depuis 2007. Donc la production domestique de ce qui est \"physique\" y baisse (la confirmation se trouve dans les s\u00e9ries longues des tonnes charg\u00e9es dans les camions et des m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s construits en Europe). On peut temporairement compenser par des importations pay\u00e9es par des revenus \"autres\" (activit\u00e9s financi\u00e8res et b\u00e9n\u00e9fices rapatri\u00e9s, par exemple), mais cette mani\u00e8re de proc\u00e9der a ses limites.\n\nIl se trouve que cette baisse de la possibilit\u00e9 d'acheter se traduit d\u00e9j\u00e0 de fa\u00e7on mon\u00e9taire. Le revenu disponible des m\u00e9nages est en effet pass\u00e9 par un maximum en 2010 et a fortement baiss\u00e9 ensuite, avant de remonter \u00e0 partir de 2014 (quand l'\u00e9nergie disponible en Europe est remont\u00e9e gr\u00e2ce au shale oil !), sans pour autant revenir au niveau ant\u00e9rieur. \n\nEt surtout la logique voudrait malheureusement que cet indicateur reparte \u00e0 la baisse, dans le droit fil de l'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9en qui va faire de m\u00eame (NB: la s\u00e9rie de l'INSEE que j'ai obtenue sur https://bit.ly/3UR7BRR s'arr\u00eate en 2019).\n\nL'article des Echos qui annonce la cr\u00e9ation par Carrefour d'une nouvelle enseigne ciblant les faibles revenus ouvre probablement une nouvelle \u00e8re : celle de l'\u00e9conomie... des \u00e9conomies. L'auteur rappelle \u00e0 juste titre que l'on peut mettre dans le m\u00eame panier que cette nouvelle enseigne Blablacar, AirBnb, la colocation, les bus Macron et Too Good to Go : \u00e0 chaque fois c'est une r\u00e9ponse pour conserver des services dans un monde avec mat\u00e9riellement moins. \n\nFaut-il se plaindre d'avoir moins de r\u00e9f\u00e9rences et moins d'emballages dans les magasins ? Faut-il appeler cela d\u00e9classement (donc pauvret\u00e9), comme le font Les Echos, ou sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 ? Tant que nous vivrons dans une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de la tentation, c'est probablement la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9ponse qui sera la bonne, h\u00e9las. Il reste \u00e0 inventer le r\u00e9cit pour passer \u00e0 la seconde." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6999439942372229121,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6999439943286554624,urn:li:activity:6999439943286554624,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 58, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6999439943286554624,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6999439943286554624,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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temps de r\u00e9pondre\" !) pour ensuite nourrir une future \u00e9volution des r\u00e8gles applicables au secteur.\n\nLes 3 autorit\u00e9s europ\u00e9ennes qui concernent le monde bancaire et financier (European Banking Authority, European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, et European Securities and Market Authority, qui supervisent respectivement les banques, les compagnies d'assurance et les places de march\u00e9) viennent de lancer une consultation sur... le greenwashing : https://lnkd.in/eif8F2XC\n\nJe n'y aurais pas pens\u00e9, mais l'id\u00e9e est franchement excellente. En effet, le meilleur moyen de corriger une r\u00e9glementation qui n'atteint pas encore son but est de se faire expliquer toutes les mani\u00e8res de la d\u00e9voyer !\n\nDe fait, le \"verdissement\" du secteur financier dans son ensemble est aujourd'hui discutable. Les annonces de finance durable se multiplient comme les petits pains, mais dans les faits les pratiques sont toujours \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s les m\u00eames, et l'\u00e9conomie financ\u00e9e toujours la m\u00eame (ce n'est pas un jugement de valeur mais un fait). Il est donc tout \u00e0 fait pertinent de poser la question des techniques utilis\u00e9es pour faire prendre des vessies pour des lanternes.\n\nCe proc\u00e9d\u00e9 pourrait utilement \u00eatre \u00e9tendu \u00e0 d'autres secteurs, et notamment la publicit\u00e9. Le Bureau de V\u00e9rification de la Publicit\u00e9 pourrait ouvrir une grande consultation en demandant aux r\u00e9pondantes de d\u00e9crire toutes les formes possibles de publicit\u00e9 mensong\u00e8re en mati\u00e8re d'environnement. 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6998765434871128064,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Prenez un pays qui souhaite limiter l'usage de la voiture. Qui souhaite inciter \u00e0 la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9. Qui souhaite limiter ses importations. Qui souhaite baisser ses \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Et qui souhaite arr\u00eater l'artificialisation des sols. \n\nDans un tel pays on se dirait que l'on va inciter \u00e0 ce que les nouveaux commerces soient \u00e9tablis pr\u00e8s des logements,\n de telle sorte que l'on puisse y aller au maximum sans voiture ; on va \u00e9viter de construire de nouveaux parkings g\u00e9ants qui imperm\u00e9abilisent le sol et sont des aspirateurs \u00e0 voiture ; on va \u00e9viter de cr\u00e9er des \"villages de la tentation\" pour inciter \u00e0 consommer encore plus d'objets (notamment v\u00eatements et accessoires) alors que ce n'est peut-\u00eatre pas la priorit\u00e9 ; enfin on va \u00e9viter de favoriser la consommation de biens import\u00e9s (sachant que les \"marques pas ch\u00e8res\" se fournissent pour l'essentiel hors de France, puisque la condition des prix bas est de ne pas fabriquer dans l'Hexagone).\n\nLe \"gigantesque village de marques\" qui s'ouvrira bient\u00f4t entre Lyon et Gen\u00e8ve illustre \u00e0 merveille que pour le moment les grands discours ne sont pas n\u00e9cessairement incarn\u00e9s dans les projets concrets. Dans le cas pr\u00e9sent le probl\u00e8me n'est pas un d\u00e9faut de financement ou de comp\u00e9tences pour faire ce qu'il faut faire : il est un d\u00e9faut de r\u00e8gles emp\u00eachant l'apparition de projets qui contribuent \u00e0 nous entra\u00eener dans mauvaise direction. \n\nCar c'est une chose de modifier l'existant, et une autre de ne pas en rajouter aux probl\u00e8mes. Le deuxi\u00e8me cas de figure est \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence bien plus facile. 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Il ne faut pas compter sur les chefs d'entreprise, \"dont ce n'est pas la logique\", pour le faire spontan\u00e9ment, parce que la nature n'a pas de prix. M\u00eame si les dirigeants d'entreprise \"comprennent\" le probl\u00e8me, leur logique - comprendre la pr\u00e9\u00e9minence des euros sur les indicateurs environnementaux dans le cadre juridique actuel - les pousse dans une direction qui est inverse \u00e0 celle qui pr\u00e9serve les ressources.\n\nCes propos seraient d'une banalit\u00e9 affligeante s'ils venaient de la bouche d'un Gael Giraud ou d'un d\u00e9put\u00e9 LFI. Mais en l'esp\u00e8ce ils sont tenus par un \u00e9conomiste de chez Candriam, une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de gestion d'actifs, qui appartient donc, au sens large, \u00e0 la \"finance mondialis\u00e9e lib\u00e9rale\".\n\nEt le m\u00eame de rappeler que, de m\u00eame que le travail des enfants n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 supprim\u00e9 par la bont\u00e9 d'\u00e2me des patrons, mais parce que la puissance publique l'a interdit (dans un contexte o\u00f9 les machines pouvaient prendre le relais, il ne faut pas l'oublier !), ce ne sont pas les chefs d'entreprise qui vont d'eux-m\u00eames se mettre dans le cadre de l'accord de Paris : c'est \u00e0 l'Etat de les y pousser, par des taxes et des interdictions.\n\nIl se trouve que, pas plus tard que le week-end dernier, j'ai d\u00e9fendu \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la m\u00eame th\u00e8se au micro de RTL dans le cadre de ma chronique hebdomadaire, qui portait sur la \"finance verte\" : https://lnkd.in/eG2t9mvQ\n\nL'id\u00e9e qu'un chef d'entreprise \"vert\" est en pratique un chef d'entreprise qui accepte - voire d\u00e9sire - que l'Etat mette des contraintes pour orienter l'activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique du \"bon c\u00f4t\u00e9\" fait de plus en plus de chemin. Accepter ses propres limites n'est pas un aveu de faiblesse : c'est en les ignorant que l'on se met \u00e0 risque.\n\nIncidemment c'est cette population que The Shift project cherche \u00e0 rassembler : depuis le d\u00e9but notre think tank ambitionne (que l'on y parvienne est une autre histoire !) de coaliser des dirigeants qui pensent sinc\u00e8rement qu'il faut mettre des contraintes sur les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Comme cette population n'est pas compl\u00e8tement na\u00efve, ils et elles le souhaitent \u00e9videmment parce qu'ils et elles pensent que ca sera bon pour leur entreprise.\n\nSauf \u00e0 compl\u00e8tement supprimer le capitalisme, que je comprends ici comme la propri\u00e9t\u00e9 individuelle de tout ou partie des moyens de production (laquelle propri\u00e9t\u00e9 priv\u00e9e est, sous une forme ou sous une autre, pr\u00e9sente depuis la s\u00e9dentarisation de notre esp\u00e8ce il y a 10.000 ans), la voie \u00e0 explorer est donc d'encadrer ce dernier pour le forcer \u00e0 \"rentrer dans le monde fini\". 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"numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un sc\u00e9nario \u00e9lectrique qui concilie d\u00e9fense de l'environnement et augmentation de la capacit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire ? Ce n'est pas s\u00e9rieux voyons ! \n\nM\u00eame si l'adh\u00e9sion \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie atomique a connu r\u00e9cemment un regain de faveur - en fait depuis les chocs p\u00e9troliers le meilleur marqueur du soutien \u00e0 cette forme de production est le prix des alternatives :), et en ce moment cet \u00e9l\u00e9ment est bien pr\u00e9sent - nous n'en sommes pas encore au point o\u00f9 la population adh\u00e8re massivement \u00e0 l'id\u00e9e que le nucl\u00e9aire est ce qu'il y a de plus \u00e9colo et durable - et de moins dangereux - pour une production \u00e9lectrique un peu cons\u00e9quente et disponible plus ou moins \u00e0 la demande.\n\nDe fait, l'essentiel des sc\u00e9narios \u00e9lectriques produits ces derniers temps pour notre pays voient tous une diminution de la puissance \u00e9lectrique install\u00e9e pour le nucl\u00e9aire dans les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir et jusqu'\u00e0 la fin du si\u00e8cle. \n\nMais un \"nouveau venu\" - les Voix du Nucl\u00e9aire - propose (sans surprise avec un tel nom !) une trajectoire o\u00f9 le nucl\u00e9aire augmente fortement - et la production \u00e9lectrique aussi - d'ici \u00e0 2100. Dans ce m\u00eame sc\u00e9nario \u00e9olien et solaire augmentent aussi jusqu'au milieu du si\u00e8cle, et surtout du stockage assur\u00e9 par des stations de pompage-turbinage (des STEP), qui seraient massivement construites d\u00e8s maintenant. Elle serviront d'abord \u00e0 \u00e9quilibrer les ENR intermittentes, et ensuite \u00e0 assurer la flexibilit\u00e9 journali\u00e8re et hebdomadaire en compl\u00e9ment d'un nucl\u00e9aire plus important qu'aujourd'hui.\n\nEn pratique ce sc\u00e9nario repose sur les axes suivants :\n- \u00e0 court terme d\u00e9ploiement de solaire, \u00e9olien, ainsi que de STEP pour assurer le pilotage du r\u00e9seau\n- maintien en service des r\u00e9acteurs actuels aussi longtemps que possible (sous contr\u00f4le de l'ASN bien s\u00fbr), soit un peu plus de 60 ans (dur\u00e9e d\u00e9j\u00e0 autoris\u00e9e aux USA pour tous les r\u00e9acteurs \u00e0 eau pressuris\u00e9e)\n- d\u00e9ploiement d\u00e8s maintenant d'EPR2\n- d\u00e8s 2050 d\u00e9but du d\u00e9ploiement de r\u00e9acteurs de la 4\u00e8 g\u00e9n\u00e9ration et d\u00e9crue corr\u00e9lative des ENR intermittentes. Les STEP sont conserv\u00e9es pour assurer la flexibilit\u00e9 en compl\u00e9ment d'un nucl\u00e9aire utilis\u00e9 essentiellement en base.\n- d\u00e9ploiement de turbines \u00e0 combustion biomasse pour l'hyperpointe\n\nCe sc\u00e9nario est purement \u00e9lectrique, et fait passer la production de 500 TWh actuellement \u00e0 800 TWh en 2070. Il n'est formellement pas incompatible avec la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 puisqu'aujourd'hui la France utilise 1600 TWh d'\u00e9nergie finale tout compris.\n\nIl est trop t\u00f4t pour dire si ce sc\u00e9nario est, dans ses moindres d\u00e9tails, pertinent ou pas. 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On met dans ce vocable les informations relatives \u00e0 la pression sur l'environnement (voir liste dans le graphique en commentaire), aux sujets sociaux (idem) et concernant la gouvernance (idem).\n\nL'\u00e9laboration des \"comptes extrafinanciers\" \u00e9tant bien plus r\u00e9cente que celle des comptes financiers, la r\u00e9glementation - ou son absence - qui s'y applique est aussi bien plus r\u00e9cente. C'est un domaine dans lequel l'Europe - et au sein de l'Europe la France - est globalement en avance sur le reste du monde.\n\nUn pas de plus vient donc d'\u00eatre franchi avec cette directive CSRD (pour Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive). Comme c'est une directive, elle devra \u00eatre transpos\u00e9e dans les l\u00e9gislations nationales avant de s'appliquer.\n\nToutes les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s cot\u00e9es de plus de 500 salari\u00e9s devront s'y conformer d\u00e8s 2024. Ca sera 2025 ou 2026 pour celles comprises entre 10 et 500 salari\u00e9s. Dans le non cot\u00e9, seules les entreprises de moins de 250 salari\u00e9s y \u00e9chapperont, \u00e0 condition qu'elles ne fassent pas plus de 40 M\u20ac de CA et 20 M\u20ac de total de bilan (ce qui \u00e9vite d'exon\u00e9rer les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d'investissement avec beaucoup d'actifs et peu d'effectifs).\n\nLe contenu pr\u00e9cis des modalit\u00e9s \u00e0 respecter \u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9 \u00e0 l'EFRAG (European Financial Reporting Advisory Group), une association cr\u00e9\u00e9e en 2001, qui est majoritairement financ\u00e9e par la Commission, mais o\u00f9 sont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es nombre de \"parties prenantes\" (voir https://bit.ly/3GaRBW9 ).\n\nCette instance a fait des propositions qui tiennent en 220 pages de rapport et plus de 400 pages d'annexes (https://bit.ly/3g0Re5W ). Ouf !\n\nOn note dans ces propositions :\n\n- que les entreprises ne doivent pas juste publier les informations qui vont avec un risque financier direct pour elles (\"simple mat\u00e9rialit\u00e9\" dans le jargon), mais aussi les informations permettant d'appr\u00e9cier les impacts qu'elles ont sur leur environnement, m\u00eame si cet impact n'est pas porteur de risque financier pour l'entreprise (la somme des deux s'appelant \"double mat\u00e9rialit\u00e9\").\n\n- que les informations communiqu\u00e9es pour les impacts doivent concerner l'ensemble de la cha\u00eene de valeur (et donc inclure le \"scope 3\" dans le jargon pour les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre)\n\n- que le sujet le plus mature pour un reporting normatif et quantifi\u00e9 est le climat (au sein de l'environnement qui globalement est le sujet le plus simple des 3 E S et G)\n\n- qu'en mati\u00e8re de climat il faudrait parler \u00e0 la fois \u00e9missions et vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 aux risques physiques\n\n- et que la biodiversit\u00e9 est aussi un domaine qui devra \u00eatre couvert\n\nComme d'habitude, d'aucuns vont consid\u00e9rer que l'Europe se tire une balle dans le pied pendant que d'autres se f\u00e9liciteront de ce cadre un peu contraignant. Consid\u00e9rant qu'une entreprise n'innove que sous la contrainte, j'appartiens plut\u00f4t \u00e0 la 2\u00e8 cat\u00e9gorie :)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6997237238065418241,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6997237239227244544,urn:li:activity:6997237239227244544,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 125, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6997237239227244544,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6997237239227244544,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6996901588053164032,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Apr\u00e8s \u00eatre all\u00e9 au nord (Allemagne : https://lnkd.in/e-Qc7Q8P - Pays Bas/Belgique : https://lnkd.in/e7YeMvnm ), et au Nord Ouest (version digitale anglaise : https://lnkd.in/e4zr_Pgh ) Le Monde Sans fin met le cap au Sud, et plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment en Espagne.\n\nCe n'est pas une mais deux versions espagnoles qui viennent de sortir :\n- une en castillan (lien dans l'image ci-dessous)\n- une en catalan : https://lnkd.in/eHxRTkEC (qui a m\u00eame une couverture bleue, histoire de montrer que vraiment c'est pas comme l'autre !)\n\nSi vous avez des relations au pays de Don Quichotte qui ont le mauvais go\u00fbt de ne pas parler fran\u00e7ais (!), il est d\u00e9sormais possible de leur sugg\u00e9rer de la lecture en espagnol, quel que soit ce dernier !\n\nEt tant que nous y sommes, au sud-est il y a aussi une version croate : https://lnkd.in/e3TznwXi \n\nD'ici quelques mois on devrait pers\u00e9v\u00e9rer au sud (de l'Europe) avec une version italienne et une portugaise, et pers\u00e9v\u00e9rer \u00e0 l'est (de l'Europe) avec une version polonaise. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7741171083256221759)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lemonde.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Le spectacle vivant au d\u00e9fi de la transition \u00e9cologique by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/culture/article/2022/11/05/le-spectacle-vivant-au-defi-de-la-sobriete-energetique_6148598_3246.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le spectacle vivant au d\u00e9fi de la transition \u00e9cologique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6996436026411909121,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La d\u00e9carbonation ? Une affaire d'ing\u00e9nieurs (de l'inerte ou du vivant) pardi ! Eoliennes, m\u00e9thaniseurs, voitures \u00e9lectriques et bornes de recharge, ampoules \u00e0 LED, mat\u00e9riaux isolants et pompes \u00e0 chaleur, s\u00e9questration du CO2, r\u00e9gimes alimentaires des bovins, arr\u00eat du labour, hydrog\u00e8ne, batteries, trains, v\u00e9los.... la liste des objets techniques qui arrivent dans les d\u00e9bats est presque infinie d\u00e8s lors qu'il est question de baisser les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires de CO2.\n\nJuste apr\u00e8s on va trouver l'argent, \u00e2prement discut\u00e9 \u00e0 la COP 27 incidemment. Ce faisant, nous ratons peut-\u00eatre l'essentiel : notre repr\u00e9sentation de l'id\u00e9al, ce qui nous attire et nous repousse, le mod\u00e8le sur lequel on essaie de se caler, les habitudes qu'il faut prendre et celles dont il faut se d\u00e9partir, en un mot ce qui rel\u00e8ve du bien ou d\u00e9sirable et ce qui rel\u00e8ve du mal et du repoussant. \n\nIl y a donc un tout petit sujet culturel dans cette histoire. La culture, en fait, a un double rapport avec les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Tout d'abord son fonctionnement m\u00eame en engendre. \n\nLes mus\u00e9es sont parfois des aspirateur \u00e0 touristes a\u00e9roport\u00e9s (le Louvre ou le Moma), et les festivals, cin\u00e9mas, sites historiques ou remarquables (comme le Mont Saint Michel), des aspirateurs \u00e0 voitures. Les b\u00e2timents doivent aussi \u00eatre chauff\u00e9s et les d\u00e9cors fabriqu\u00e9s, et enfin l'audiovisuel - qui fait partie de la culture, porno compris :) - est le premier motif d'emploi du digital, lequel engendre 4% des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires environ.\n\nComme toute activit\u00e9 \"moderne\", la culture est elle aussi devenue d\u00e9pendante des combustibles fossiles. \n\nMais elle a un autre rapport \u00e0 la question : celle de \"cr\u00e9atrice de tendances\". Hollywood a surement fait autant - sinon plus - pour l'id\u00e9alisation du mode de vie \u00e9nergivore des am\u00e9ricains que toutes les campagnes publicitaires ou marketing des constructeurs de grosses voitures ou de maisons individuelles.\n\nC'est pour cela que, dans le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise, il y a un chapitre entier sur la culture (https://bit.ly/3UnN8ni ). Ce n'est pas juste un petit truc dont il faut s'occuper pour donner le change pendant que les sujets vraiment s\u00e9rieux se discutent avec les industriels. C'est un secteur qui contribue puissamment aux effets de mode et qui est par ailleurs issu de l'anthropoc\u00e8ne dans sa forme actuelle. \n\nCet article du Monde \u00e9voque quelques initiatives sur le sujet, soit port\u00e9es par des acteurs individuels (compagnies de th\u00e9\u00e2tre, organisateurs de festivals) soit par des entit\u00e9s collectives (associations professionnelles ou syndicats). \n\nSelon l'article du Monde, le travail du Shift Project sert \"de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence\" au secteur. M\u00eame si cette affirmation ne refl\u00e8te que le dixi\u00e8me de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9, cela signifie quand m\u00eame que nous sommes identifi\u00e9s comme utiles pour que les acteurs de ce domaine s'emparent de la question climatique. C'est indispensable pour que le reste de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 fasse de la d\u00e9carbonation un but d\u00e9sirable. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: ClimatSup Business - Former les acteurs de l'\u00e9conomie de demain by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/rapport-final-climat-sup-business/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "ClimatSup Business - Former les acteurs de l'\u00e9conomie de demain" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6995781403606929410,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Comment apprendre aux \u00e9l\u00e8ves des \u00e9coles de gestion \u00e0 faire un business plan compatible accord de Paris ? Du marketing ou de la publicit\u00e9 compatible avec les limites plan\u00e9taires ? Du management \"bas carbone\" ?\n\nApr\u00e8s avoir travaill\u00e9 sur la mise en harmonie de l'enseignement dans les \u00e9coles d'ing\u00e9nieur avec la n\u00e9cessaire d\u00e9carbonation (sous contrainte d'autres ressources) de l'\u00e9conomie, The Shift Project r\u00e9cidive (si l'on peut dire) avec les \u00e9coles de gestion (en attendant de compl\u00e9ter la trilogie dans pas longtemps avec l'enseignement de la finance).\n\nLe travail effectu\u00e9 par notre think tank a consist\u00e9 \u00e0 cr\u00e9er une \"m\u00e9thode op\u00e9rationnelle\" pour aider un \u00e9tablissement d'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur en gestion \u00e0 proposer un enseignement compatible avec les d\u00e9fis de demain et non avec ceux d'hier.\n\nUne fois cela dit, un certain nombre de probl\u00e8mes pratiques se posent pour passer \u00e0 l'action :\n- comment r\u00e9viser les programmes ? Faut-il proposer la m\u00eame chose qu'actuellement avec en plus un peu de RSE ou de physique, ou bien il faut revoir tout l'enseignement, y compris faire un tri s\u00e9v\u00e8re dans ce qui existe ?\n- Aura-t-on besoin des m\u00eames enseignants qu\u2019il faudra juste former \u00e0 de nouvelles approches, ou bien l\u2019angle sera tellement diff\u00e9rent que le corps enseignant apte \u00e0 officier dans ce nouveau contexte viendra surtout de l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur ?\n-\u00a0Faut-il s\u00e9lectionner les \u00e9l\u00e8ves sur des bases diff\u00e9rentes ?\n- Faut-il changer les syst\u00e8mes de classement des \u00e9tablissements, pour que le salaire \u00e0 la sortie ne soit plus le principal crit\u00e8re prix en compte ? \n- Pour une \u00e9cole qui voudrait \"faire sa r\u00e9volution\", comment cesser de servir un syst\u00e8me que l\u2019on sait aller dans le mur sans aller dans le mur soi-m\u00eame parce que l\u2019on est sorti du jeu ?\n- Faut-il \u00e9couter les recruteurs, qui sont par nature l\u2019incarnation de l\u2019existant dont il faut se d\u00e9partir, ou \u00e9couter des \u00e9l\u00e8ves, qui peuvent avoir des aspirations qui ne correspondent pas (encore) \u00e0 des emplois existants ?\n\nLe rapport du Shift Project ne fournira pas de r\u00e9ponse exhaustive \u00e0 toutes ces questions, et \u00e0 toutes les autres qui viennent \u00e0 l'esprit, mais il devrait n\u00e9anmoins int\u00e9resser toute personne qui partagerait nos souhaits de voir cet enseignement sup\u00e9rieur \"shifter\" un peu plus rapidement que maintenant. \n\nCar si nous prenons l'accord de Paris au pied de la lettre - et ne pas le faire en pleine COP est os\u00e9 :) - il reste 30 ans pour amener les \u00e9missions \u00e0 z\u00e9ro. Les cadres arrivant aujourd'hui sur le march\u00e9 du travail devraient donc d\u00e9j\u00e0 avoir les r\u00e9flexes adapt\u00e9s \u00e0 un monde o\u00f9 l'\u00e9nergie facile va se contracter, ce qui est l'\u00e9volution inverse de celle qui a men\u00e9 \u00e0 la mondialisation dont les anciens des \u00e9coles de gestion sont les b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires directs. \n\nNB : Si par chance vous \u00eates disponible dans 45 minutes (!) la pr\u00e9sentation du rapport aura lieu \u00e0 Audencia (\u00e0 Nantes) et en visio sur la page https://lnkd.in/eaSz8idj (il y aura un replay sinon)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6995781403606929410,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6995781404512952320,urn:li:activity:6995781404512952320,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 110, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { 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"https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/letat-reclame-plus-defforts-de-decarbonation-aux-industriels-1876669#" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Etat r\u00e9clame plus d'efforts de d\u00e9carbonation aux industriels" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6995652655922487296,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans le chapitre \"industrie\" du Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf), nous avions fait le constat que les 3/4 des \u00e9missions directes (donc hors \u00e9missions associ\u00e9es \u00e0 la consommation \u00e9lectrique du secteur, et bien \u00e9videmment hors \u00e9missions du \"scope 3\") du secteur industriel en France viennent de 3 activit\u00e9s qui repr\u00e9sentent chacune environ un quart du total du secteur :\n- l'aci\u00e9rie\n- la cimenterie et activit\u00e9s connexes (production de chaux par exemple, mais le ciment domine de la t\u00eate et des \u00e9paules)\n- la chimie de base (production des monom\u00e8res, de la soude et du chlore, de l'hydrog\u00e8ne, etc).\n\nNos propositions permettaient de viser, pour ces secteurs, une division par 5 \u00e0 10 des \u00e9missions \u00e0 l'horizon 2050 - ce n'est pas encore la neutralit\u00e9 mais on s'en rapproche - en combinant sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 - il y a une baisse des volumes - et avanc\u00e9es techniques (par exemple la r\u00e9duction directe \u00e0 l'hydrog\u00e8ne dans la m\u00e9tallurgie ou un m\u00e9lange de capture et s\u00e9questration du carbone et de combustibles non fossiles dans la cimenterie).\n\nJe ne sais pas si l'Elys\u00e9e a lu le PTEF, mais l'\u00e9v\u00e9nement rapport\u00e9 par Les Echos s'inscrit dans la m\u00eame logique : porter une attention particuli\u00e8re aux sites fortement \u00e9missifs, o\u00f9 la d\u00e9carbonation va souvent avec des investissements lourds qu'il faut donc pouvoir \"s\u00e9curiser\".\n\n\"s\u00e9curiser\" signifie en pratique que, sur leur dur\u00e9e de vie, ces investissements vont \u00e9viter plus de couts qu'ils n'en engendreront. La logique est que, comme les sites gros \u00e9metteurs sont soumis aux quotas, et que ces derniers sont d\u00e9sormais payants, tout le CO2 non \u00e9mis peut se convertir en quotas non achet\u00e9s, et cet argent peut \u00eatre mis en face de l'amortissement de l'investissement r\u00e9alis\u00e9.\n\nPour que le syst\u00e8me fonctionne bien, il y a un point que cet article n'\u00e9voque pas : la garantie d'un prix \u00e9lev\u00e9 et stable du CO2 \u00e0 l'avenir. Le march\u00e9 ne peut pas garantir cela. Il faut donc que la puissance publique s'en m\u00eale, or pour le moment la Commission (car cela d\u00e9pend d'elle) est r\u00e9tive \u00e0 l'id\u00e9e de mettre un prix plancher aux quotas mis aux ench\u00e8res.\n\nLe deuxi\u00e8me point qui n'est pas \u00e9voqu\u00e9 est la protection aux fronti\u00e8res : si les couts de production domestiques qui n'engendrent que peu de CO2 sont sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 ceux des concurrents \u00e9trangers qui \u00e9mettent plus, il faut pouvoir compenser la diff\u00e9rence aux fronti\u00e8res (comme pour la TVA). \n\nDans les commodit\u00e9s certaines voyagent peu en pratique (le ciment), mais d'autres beaucoup plus (acier ou polym\u00e8res). Si l'Etat veut que les industriels avancent - et il a raison de le vouloir - il faut qu'il fasse sa part dans la planification, en s'occupant des deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments \u00e9voqu\u00e9s plus haut. Une troisi\u00e8me alternative est qu'il prenne \u00e0 sa charge les investissements des industriels, en allant \u00e9ventuellement jusqu'\u00e0 une nationalisation ou une cogestion - une \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 aujourd'hui tr\u00e8s peu compatible avec l'orientation \u00e9conomique lib\u00e9rale, mais l'histoire n'a pas fini d'\u00eatre \u00e9crite !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6995652655922487296,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6995652656836837376,urn:li:activity:6995652656836837376,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 42, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6995652656836837376,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C5603AQF0oKakpSHzWQ/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "0Gg2u9XYRhasO5Bcjp1wpQ==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Dans un entretien au T\u00e9l\u00e9gramme (qui \u00e0 une \u00e9poque fut \"de Brest\"), Lionel Alletto \u00e9voque les modifications des pratiques agricoles qu'il serait pertinent de mettre en oeuvre pour gagner en r\u00e9silience et diminuer la pression sur l'environnement (NB : je soup\u00e7onne la transcription de l'interview de comporter quelques erreurs ici ou l\u00e0, qui conduisent certaines phrases \u00e0 \u00eatre \u00e9tranges ou en d\u00e9calage).\n\nQuelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments int\u00e9ressants de cette interview :\n- les techniques sans labour semblent am\u00e9liorer la r\u00e9sistance \u00e0 la s\u00e9cheresse (un avantage qui pourrait ne pas \u00eatre mince avec ce qui nous attend)\n- la diversification des cultures - dont la polyculture \u00e9levage - permet de diminuer l'usage des phytosanitaires\n- le seul phytosanitaire vraiment utile en agriculture de conservation c'est... le glyphosate (tous les \u00e9chos que j'ai eus laissent penser que ce n'est pas celui dont l'interdiction est la plus prioritaire...)\n- en \"p\u00e9riode de temps calme\" sur le prix de l'\u00e9nergie, l'agriculture de conservation ne change pas la donne sur le plan \u00e9conomique (donc elle ne rapporte rien de plus... mais ne coute pas plus non plus), mais quand les prix des hydrocarbures grimpent au plafond elle donne un avantage\n\nJ'avais retenu par ailleurs que d'avoir un couvert v\u00e9g\u00e9tal sur l'ensemble de l'ann\u00e9e favorise la s\u00e9questration de carbone dans le sol. \n\n\"sur le papier\", dixit l'urbain que je suis qui ne tient pas souvent une fourche ou une b\u00eache :), cette technique semble donc \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9raliser. Que manque-t-il pour que cela soit le cas ? La liste des \"conditions du succ\u00e8s\" n'est pas tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rente ici de ce qu'elle est pour tout passage \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle d'une mani\u00e8re de faire pour laquelle des pionniers montrent que globalement ca fonctionne :\n- une valorisation \"culturelle\" d'un changement de pratique dans un monde o\u00f9 c'est plut\u00f4t l'inverse qui est la r\u00e8gle. Les terroirs, AOC, etc, valorisent le fait de \"faire toujours pareil\", et l\u00e0 il s'agit de valoriser l'inverse !\n- du coup il faut un accompagnement et de la formation, \u00e0 la fois par la recherche (c'est donc une tr\u00e8s bonne chose que l'INRAE s'en m\u00eale) et par les entit\u00e9s d\u00e9volues \u00e0 cet effet (chambres d'agriculture et conseil interne des coop\u00e9ratives notamment)\n- il faut aussi que les r\u00e8gles \u00e9conomiques ne dissuadent pas explicitement les modifications de pratiques, voire les encouragent (il n'y a pas que les prix de vente pour cela : l'Etat, comme il l'a fait pour le covid, pourrait reprendre de la dette d'agriculteurs qui accepteraient de changer de pratiques, par exemple). Or le premier souci des r\u00e8gles \u00e9conomiques aujourd'hui n'est pas d'assurer la \"durabilit\u00e9 physique\" !\n\nTout est r\u00e9sum\u00e9 dans cette phrase de l'interview : \"Les syst\u00e8mes [agricoles]\u00a0doivent (...) gagner en r\u00e9silience et (...) \u00eatre moins d\u00e9pendants des ressources externes, \u00eatre plus diversifi\u00e9s pour faire face aux al\u00e9as, maximiser les services \u00e9cosyst\u00e9miques\". 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Esp\u00e9rons que la proximit\u00e9 d'un d\u00e9sert et les 28 \u00e0 30 \u00b0C en novembre (https://bbc.in/3FNxQ6R ) permettront aux participant(e)s de se sentir plus concern\u00e9s que quand tout le monde est en doudoune !\n\nIl y sera question d'agir pour limiter le r\u00e9chauffement. Or, c'est physique, cela signifie se contraindre sur les \u00e9missions. De combien ? Cela d\u00e9pend de l'objectif !\n\nLe graphique ci-dessous donne les trajectoires d'\u00e9missions qui vont avec des r\u00e9chauffements donn\u00e9s en 2100. Tout en bas, le trait bleu ciel correspond \u00e0 1,5 \u00b0C et, et tout en haut la rouge fonc\u00e9e du haut \u00e0 4,5 \u00b0C. On trouvera en commentaire le graphique des \u00e9l\u00e9vations de temp\u00e9rature fait avec le m\u00eame code couleur.\n\nPour 1,5\u00b0C en 2100 on voit que les \u00e9missions doivent \u00eatre nulles en 2060, puis \"n\u00e9gatives\" : cela signifie que la totalit\u00e9 de l'\u00e9nergie utilis\u00e9e se d\u00e9carbone en 40 ans, et ensuite on arrive \u00e0 reprendre du CO2 depuis l'air via des pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9s technologiques d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle. Pour \"moins de 2\u00b0C en 2100\" c'est pareil mais d\u00e9cal\u00e9 de 20 ans.\n\nAvec des \u00e9missions qui seraient surtout contraintes \u00e0 l'avenir par la disponibilit\u00e9 en \u00e9nergie fossile (pic p\u00e9trolier maintenant, pic gazier en 2030, pic charbonnier d'ici 2050) on est un peu en dessous de 3\u00b0C en 2100 (courbe orange).\n\nEnfin les deux courbes du haut signifient une \"\u00e9conomie fossile\" non limit\u00e9e - ni par l'\u00e9puisement des gisements d'hydrocarbures, ni par les cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique, ni par d'autres limites plan\u00e9taires - jusqu'en 2100.\n\nQuelques commentaires :\n\n- m\u00eame en diminuant les \u00e9missions mondiales de 7% par an d\u00e8s demain matin, la temp\u00e9rature continue d'augmenter d'environ 0,2 \u00b0C par d\u00e9cennie pour les 20 ans qui viennent. Cela est du \u00e0 l'inertie chimique du CO2 : tant que les \u00e9missions ne sont pas nulles la concentration de ce gaz dans l'air - et \u00e0 la suite la temp\u00e9rature - augmente.\n\n- comme je ne crois pas que l'on puisse compter sur la reprise du CO2 de l'atmosph\u00e8re \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle imagin\u00e9e pour les sc\u00e9narios 1,5 \u00b0C et 2\u00b0C, sauf pand\u00e9mie ou chute de com\u00e8te on va se prendre 1,5\u00b0C de toute fa\u00e7on, et c'est presque pareil pour 2\u00b0C -> il faut penser massivement r\u00e9silience (et non juste \"adaptation\", terme qui suppose une absence d'inconv\u00e9nient si on s'y prend bien) d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent\n\n- baisser les \u00e9missions de 5% par an c'est tr\u00e8s probablement baisser le PIB de 3 \u00e0 4% par an (https://bit.ly/3T2QevC ). J'ai quelques doutes sur le fait que ca puisse \u00eatre un objectif consensuel dans l'enceinte des Nations Unies (o\u00f9 tout se d\u00e9cide par consensus).\n\nCOP 27 ou pas, en Europe, la \"voiture balai\" de la baisse subie des combustibles fossiles est d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours (et l'\u00e9tait avant Poutine !). Ca ne va pas arr\u00eater la d\u00e9rive climatique, mais ca nous force d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 conjuguer d\u00e9crue des moyens mat\u00e9riels \u00e0 notre disposition et accroissement des dommages climatiques. Il serait temps de se creuser la cervelle pour l'avenir avec le bon cahier des charges. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Assurer le risque climatique ? L'affaire du public et du priv\u00e9 by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/editos-analyses/assurer-le-risque-climatique-laffaire-du-public-et-du-prive-1873039" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Assurer le risque climatique\u00a0? L'affaire du public et du priv\u00e9" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6994608568117174272,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\"Un monde \u00e0 4\u00b0C n'est pas assurable\" : on se souvient (ou pas !) de cette d\u00e9claration d'Henri de Castries (ex-patron d'Axa), pour rappeler qu'on ne pouvait compter sur les assureurs pour servir de filet de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 en cas de r\u00e9chauffement trop prononc\u00e9.\n\nDans une tribune r\u00e9cente parue dans Les Echos, le pr\u00e9sident du premier r\u00e9assureur fran\u00e7ais (SCOR) confirme que ceux qui sont \u00e0 risque dans cette histoire sont les assur\u00e9s et non les assureurs. Il a largement raison.\n\nTout d'abord, le changement climatique va surtout endommager des actifs naturels qui valent z\u00e9ro par convention dans l'\u00e9conomie, et ne peuvent \u00eatre ni assur\u00e9s, ni remis en \u00e9tat. La Mer de Glace, la pluviom\u00e9trie en France ou les coraux tropicaux ne peuvent pas \u00eatre remis en \u00e9tat si n\u00e9cessaire par une bonne police d'assurance ! Et dans ces cas de figure le risque est \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence port\u00e9 par les humains qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient des services naturels, non par l'assureur.\n\nCe qui peut \u00e9ventuellement \u00eatre assur\u00e9 est le d\u00e9faut d'activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique qui fait suite \u00e0 la disparition d'actifs naturels : si le Rhin baisse trop pour que les barges passent, l'industriel en bord de Rhin peut essayer de s'assurer pour les pertes d'exploitation qui en r\u00e9sultent. Mais ca ne fait pas revenir le Rhin.\n\nIl y a ensuite l'argument que l'assureur n'aimerait pas le risque. C'est tout le contraire : sans risque il n'y a pas besoin d'assurance. Le m\u00e9tier de l'assureur est, pour un risque donn\u00e9, de \"pr\u00e9voir\" l'ampleur des dommages possibles pour les assur\u00e9s, et de faire payer \u00e0 ces derniers le cout de son service pour le m\u00eame montant plus sa marge.\n\nQuand il y a un risque de devoir payer plus que les primes encaiss\u00e9es (alea trop volatil et pr\u00e9vision des dommages trop impr\u00e9cise, et/ou consentement \u00e0 payer de l'assur\u00e9 pas assez \u00e9lev\u00e9), alors l'assureur cesse de proposer ses services. Pour l'assureur, le risque est \"juste\" une diminution de son activit\u00e9 dans le segment consid\u00e9r\u00e9.\n\nPourquoi est-ce que cela ne semble pas chagriner plus que ca l'auteur de cette tribune qui rappelle ce fait ? Probablement parce que toutes les projections \u00e9conomiques \"voient\" de la croissance \u00e0 l'infini, climat ou pas (m\u00eame les sc\u00e9narios \"compatibles accord de Paris\" utilis\u00e9s pour les mod\u00e9lisations du GIEC postulent de la croissance \u00e9conomique ininterrompue jusqu'en 2100). \n\nLe secteur de l'assurance sait que son chiffre d'affaire est grosso modo proportionnel au PIB. La seule crainte que lui inspire la d\u00e9rive climatique est alors de devoir basculer sur d'autres types de risques, mais comme la solvabilit\u00e9 globale de ses clients est cens\u00e9e suivre la croissance, le climat est juste un motif d'arbitrage de son portefeuille de risques assur\u00e9s.\n\nEvidemment l'\u00e9quation change du tout au tout si la d\u00e9rive climatique peut contracter le PIB (et non juste le faire croitre moins vite). Pour avoir vraiment peur, les assureurs devront donc se convaincre que la d\u00e9rive climatique est susceptible d'engendrer une r\u00e9cession structurelle. Nous n'y sommes pas." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6994608568117174272,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6994608569127968768,urn:li:activity:6994608569127968768,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 77, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6994608569127968768,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6994608569127968768,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6994608569127968768", "threadId": 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"accessibilityText": "Open video: Jancovici : Audition \u00e0 l'Assembl\u00e9e nationale - 02/11/2022 on youtube.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oweVFXFFh04" }, "description": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Audition de Jean-Marc Jancovici, membre du Haut Conseil pour le climat, par la commission d'enqu\u00eate de l'Assembl\u00e9e Nationale visant \u00e0 \u00e9tablir les raisons de la perte de souverainet\u00e9 et d'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de la France ( infos sur cette..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Jancovici : Audition \u00e0 l'Assembl\u00e9e nationale - 02/11/2022" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6994209414270320641,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Assembl\u00e9e Nationale vient de cr\u00e9er une \"Commission d'enqu\u00eate visant \u00e0 \u00e9tablir les raisons de la perte de souverainet\u00e9 et d'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de la France\" (https://bit.ly/3FJnu81 ). Les commissions d'enqu\u00eate du Parlement sont des instances qui servent \u00e0 contr\u00f4ler l'action du gouvernement (https://bit.ly/3E0VxaA ). \n\nElles ont des pouvoirs d'investigation \u00e9tendus : une personne convoqu\u00e9e par une commission d'enqu\u00eate ne peut refuser d'y aller sous peine de sanctions p\u00e9nales, et la Commission peut se faire communiquer tout document qu'elle juge utile (sauf ce qui est couvert par le secret d\u00e9fense ou assimil\u00e9) pour mener ses travaux.\n\nLa possibilit\u00e9 de cr\u00e9er une commission d'enqu\u00eate fait partie des pr\u00e9rogatives des groupes politiques \u00e0 l'Assembl\u00e9e, et ces commissions d'enqu\u00eate s'inscrivent \u00e9videmment dans le jeu politique o\u00f9 un groupe de l'opposition va pr\u00e9f\u00e9rentiellement choisir un sujet qui \"agace\" le pouvoir en place.\n\nLa commission pour laquelle j'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 convoqu\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9e par les R\u00e9publicains, et je parierais volontiers qu'elle veut pouvoir conclure que Hollande et Macron (voire avant) ont fait \"n'importe quoi\" en mati\u00e8re de politique \u00e9lectrique. Cela \u00e9tant, mon audition n'a que peu port\u00e9 sur l'\u00e9valuation des politiques publiques men\u00e9es ces 10 ou 20 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. \n\n\"On\" m'a surtout pos\u00e9 des questions sur les avantages et inconv\u00e9nients de tel ou tel type d'\u00e9nergie, sans oublier de parler de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 ou de d\u00e9pendance - et sur quoi - de notre pays \u00e0 des approvisionnements \u00e9trangers. Car, de fait, depuis la fin de l'\u00e8re renouvelable, notre pays est d\u00e9pendant de pays producteurs d'hydrocarbures ou de minerais, et le restera demain.\n\nDepuis la mise en ligne de cette vid\u00e9o, des extraits de 10 secondes (!) ou 2 minutes ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 circuler, avec comme commentaire \"voici ce que pense Jancovici\". Mais... dans une vid\u00e9o de plus de 2 heures, chacun pourra trouver un court extrait qui lui plait plus particuli\u00e8rement et cens\u00e9 r\u00e9sumer ma pens\u00e9e !\n\nToutes les \u00e9nergies ont des avantages, toutes ont des inconv\u00e9nients, et dans cette audition j'ai du \u00e9voquer les avantages de toutes les \u00e9nergies potentiellement disponibles. Avec un bon logiciel de montage on peut donc me pr\u00e9senter comme \u00e9tant favorable \u00e0... n'importe laquelle de nos \u00e9nergies !\n\nBien \u00e9videmment, il est impossible de r\u00e9sumer en quelques minutes la totalit\u00e9 de ce qu'il faut comprendre pour se faire une opinion sur la question. Un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 est toujours un exercice imparfait (h\u00e9las) et il faut du temps (h\u00e9las \u00e0 nouveau) pour suffisamment faire le tour de la question pour avoir une conclusion \u00e9tay\u00e9e.\n\nIl y a 10 ans j'avais \u00e9t\u00e9 auditionn\u00e9 par une autre commission d'enqu\u00eate (sur le \"cout r\u00e9el de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9\" : https://bit.ly/3NBhxMr ). 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Elderson, membre du comit\u00e9 ex\u00e9cutif de la Banque Centrale Europ\u00e9enne, utilise le blog de la BCE pour dire aux banques de la zone euro qu'elles ne tiennent pas assez compte des sujets climatiques et environnementaux dans la conduite de leurs affaires \"ordinaires\" : https://bit.ly/3NunD0U . Sa conclusion repose sur l'examen de 186 banques supervis\u00e9es par la BCE, avec un total de bilan cumul\u00e9 de 25.000 milliards d'euros.\n\nL'auteur consid\u00e8re que les banques ne sont pas encore \"en mesure d'identifier, d'\u00e9valuer, de contr\u00f4ler et d'att\u00e9nuer les risques in\u00e9vitables d\u00e9coulant des crises climatiques et environnementales\". Plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, trois points sont l'objet de faiblesses importantes :\n\n- la m\u00e9thode : 96% des banques audit\u00e9es ne savent pas identifier correctement les risques li\u00e9s au climat et \u00e0 l'environnement dans leurs actifs. En particulier, elles ne collectent pas de donn\u00e9es granulaires sur les contreparties et les actifs qui permettraient de faire des analyses fines sur les risques. Le dirigeant de la BCE fait aussi remarquer que le concept de \"net zero en 2050\" est souvent avanc\u00e9 sans d\u00e9finition claire de ce que cela recouvre, et sans d\u00e9finition d'objectifs interm\u00e9diaires indispensables pour l'action.\n\n- un \u00e9cart entre discours et actes : alors que les documents de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence des banques \u00e9voquent abondamment le climat, dans la pratique les sources de revenus des banques sont aujourd'hui \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s les m\u00eames \"qu'avant\". Lorsque des initiatives sont prises pour les clients les plus \"intensifs en carbone\", il n'est pas expliqu\u00e9 en quoi cela pr\u00e9figure une action plus syst\u00e9mique pour rendre la banque globalement compatible avec une \u00e9conomie qui se d\u00e9carbone rapidement\n\n- enfin des politiques annonc\u00e9es mais non mises en oeuvre en pratique, y compris en ignorant des avertissements d'experts internes dans un certain nombre de cas.\n\nLes bons points - car il y en a quand m\u00eame - vont aux banques qui int\u00e8grent les risques physiques et de transition dans la couverture en capital de leurs engagements en fonction des \"caract\u00e9ristiques climat\" de ces derniers.\n\nDans les recommandations du r\u00e9gulateur, il y a notamment :\n- l'utilisation d'outils pour planifier la transition, avec la fixation d'objectifs interm\u00e9diaires. \n- la collecte large d'informations, pour calculer des risques de mani\u00e8re granulaire\n- l'int\u00e9gration des risques de transition et physique de long terme dans l'\u00e9valuation des besoins en capitaux (argh ! le mot qui f\u00e2che une banque est l\u00e2ch\u00e9 :) ).\n- la gestion des risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 la perte de biodiversit\u00e9\n\nL'article se termine en disant que, en 2024, toutes les banques devront \u00eatre \"align\u00e9es avec les les exigences du r\u00e9gulateur\". L'auteur ne dit pas ce que la BCE fera si cet objectif n'est pas atteint, mais la mani\u00e8re classique de g\u00e9rer un risque consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme \u00e9lev\u00e9 dans le monde bancaire est d'exiger une couverture \u00e9lev\u00e9e en fonds propre pour les engagements concern\u00e9s. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7451013333643239022)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "jancovici.com \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Une pr\u00e9face pour le livre Algocratie by jancovici.com", "actionTarget": "https://jancovici.com/publications-et-co/contributions-a-ouvrage/une-preface-pour-le-livre-algocratie/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une pr\u00e9face pour le livre Algocratie" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6993520336805711872,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 1349, "length": 17, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Arthur", "lastName": "Grimonpont", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABI0QdEB8VwxLH630wmcwoXmrihelwsJVKw", "occupation": 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Et une des caract\u00e9ristiques de ce r\u00e9seau est que chacun va trouver sur son \"fil\" d'actualit\u00e9 des informations qui, pour l'essentiel, sont en accord avec sa vision du monde et non l'inverse. \n\nIl m'est assez facile de le constater pour mes propres publications : les r\u00e9actions sont toujours tr\u00e8s majoritairement positives (ou les commentaires n\u00e9gatifs toujours tr\u00e8s minoritaires, ce qui revient au m\u00eame). Il y a certes quelques exceptions, par exemple sur les publications des personnages politiques, o\u00f9 les commentaires n\u00e9gatifs peuvent \u00eatre dominants, mais c'est parce que... nous trouvons agr\u00e9able de lire les publications de ces auteurs pour pouvoir les critiquer ensuite !\n\nPourquoi est-ce que, sur tout r\u00e9seau, nous avons essentiellement des informations qui nous maintiennent dans notre zone de confort ? Parce que ces r\u00e9seaux sociaux sont structur\u00e9s par des algorithmes qui vont analyser nos r\u00e9actions (temps de lecture, \"like\", etc), en d\u00e9duire ce qui nous plait, et de l\u00e0 nous proposer le plus possible la m\u00eame chose.\n\nCar le m\u00e9tier de ces r\u00e9seaux n'est pas de nous informer : il est de proposer du \"temps de cerveau disponible\" \u00e0 leurs vrais clients, ceux qui payent, qui sont les annonceurs (dont les utilisateurs de comptes premium ici sont une variante).\n\nDe cette observation est n\u00e9 le livre d'Arthur Grimonpont dont j'ai accept\u00e9 de faire la pr\u00e9face. Ce n'est pas \u00e0 cause de mes souvenirs d'algorithmique (j'en ai fait un peu quand j'\u00e9tais jeune !) que l'on m'a demand\u00e9 cette contribution !\n\nPar contre, s'informer sur la question des limites plan\u00e9taires - qui concernent tout le monde, que cela nous plaise ou pas - n'est pas sp\u00e9cialement une op\u00e9ration qui nous maintient dans notre zone de confort. Et la place d\u00e9sormais occup\u00e9e par les r\u00e9seaux sociaux - quelques soci\u00e9t\u00e9s seulement qui \"informent\" quotidiennement des milliards d'individus - fait de ces entit\u00e9s des acteurs dominants dans la diffusion de l'information d\u00e9sormais. \n\nDu coup, comment marier leur int\u00e9r\u00eat - ne pas nous faire fuir - et l'acc\u00e8s de l'essentiel de la population \u00e0 une information qui, lorsqu'elle est factuelle, n'est pas sp\u00e9cialement agr\u00e9able ? (ce qui explique pourquoi les fake news se propagent plus vite : elles nous laissent dans notre zone de confort...). C'est toute la question de l'ouvrage.\n\nNormalement cette pr\u00e9face n'est disponible que pour les personnes qui voudront bien acheter cet ouvrage fort on\u00e9reux (22 euros !). Mais j'esp\u00e8re que ni l'\u00e9diteur ni l'auteur ne m'en voudront de la rendre publique pour au contraire inciter \u00e0 lire le reste, qui d\u00e9cortique par le menu le m\u00e9canisme effleur\u00e9 dans ce post. \n\nL'ambition - salutaire - de l'auteur est \u00e9videmment de nous amener \u00e0 prendre du recul vis-\u00e0-vis de ces plates-formes. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7266540330150215141)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "businessfornature.org \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: COP15 business statement \u2014 Business For Nature by businessfornature.org", "actionTarget": "https://www.businessfornature.org/cop15-business-statement" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "COP15 business statement \u2014 Business For Nature" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6993154668029734912,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans moins d'une semaine d\u00e9marrera la 27\u00e8me COP (pour Convention Of the Parties : party = pays ayant ratifi\u00e9 la Convention Climat des Nations Unies) de la Convention Climat.\n\nMais une autre \"COP\" aura \u00e9galement lieu en d\u00e9cembre \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al : la 15\u00e8me de la \"Convention sur la Diversit\u00e9 Biologique\" (https://www.cbd.int/ ), \u00e9galement r\u00e9gie par les Nations Unies, et \u00e9galement sign\u00e9e en 1992 au Sommet de la Terre \u00e0 Rio (comme la Convention Climat).\n\nEn vue de cette COP, plus de 300 entit\u00e9s du monde \u00e9conomique ont demand\u00e9 aux gouvernements de rendre obligatoire, pour les entreprises \"importantes et multinationales\", et pour les institutions financi\u00e8res, l'\u00e9valuation et la publication de leurs impacts sur la biodiversit\u00e9, et d\u00e9pendances \u00e0 cette derni\u00e8re, et ce d'ici 2030.\n\nLes signataires affirment par ailleurs que :\n\n\"Nous jouons notre r\u00f4le, en prenant des mesures telles que :\u00a0\n- L'\u00e9valuation de nos impacts et de nos d\u00e9pendances vis-\u00e0-vis de la nature\u00a0\n- la divulgation de nos informations importantes sur la nature\u00a0\u00a0\n- l'engagement public d'\u00e9viter et de r\u00e9duire nos impacts n\u00e9gatifs (...)\n- la transformation de nos strat\u00e9gies et mod\u00e8les d'entreprise pour restaurer et r\u00e9g\u00e9n\u00e9rer la nature (...).\"\n\nQue penser de cette initiative ? Poudre aux yeux, ou d\u00e9but d'une r\u00e9volution ? La r\u00e9ponse est probablement exactement la m\u00eame que pour le climat : un peu de tout ca ! \n\nAu sein de 300 signatures, on trouvera quelques entreprises extr\u00eamement engag\u00e9es, capables de renoncer \u00e0 du chiffre d'affaires de mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s significative au nom de leurs convictions, c'est \u00e0 dire capables de faire passer la biodiversit\u00e9 avant les euros. \n\nMais on trouvera aussi du cynisme absolu d'entit\u00e9s se disant qu'elles seront capables de faire illusion sans rien changer, en passant par toutes celles qui n'ont juste rien compris, et qui se disent que de toute fa\u00e7on 2030 c'est plus loin que le probable mandat du PDG en place.\n\nEt puis le Diable sera dans les d\u00e9tails. En mati\u00e8re de climat il est facile de donner le change sans modifier significativement l'activit\u00e9. Il suffit de postuler des am\u00e9liorations venues d'ailleurs dont on b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera, de fixer des objectifs relatifs (qui se sont toujours am\u00e9lior\u00e9s pour des raisons strictement \u00e9conomiques) et non absolus, de choisir un p\u00e9rim\u00e8tre restreint qui ne couvre pas tous les liens de d\u00e9pendance ou d'impact, d'utiliser des termes sans contenu normatif (\"responsable\", \"vert\", \"durable\", etc), bref le pass\u00e9 r\u00e9cent a offert un floril\u00e8ge de possibilit\u00e9s en la mati\u00e8re.\n\nDe m\u00eame, les obligations impos\u00e9es par les \u00e9tats peuvent \u00eatre r\u00e9elles mais sans impact (et j'ai vu N fois des entreprises militer pour que ce soit le cas) : publication d'informations partielles, ou non pertinentes, ou avec des sanctions non dissuasives en cas de d\u00e9faut, etc... \n\nPour la biodiversit\u00e9 comme pour le climat, la vraie r\u00e9volution est d'accepter que les \u00e9tats diminuent d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment une large partie des business existants. Est-ce vraiment la volont\u00e9 des signataires de ce texte ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6993154668029734912,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6993154668814069760,urn:li:activity:6993154668814069760,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 37, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6993154668814069760,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6993154668814069760,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7457390237058979612)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "bfmtv.com \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Bruno Le Maire: \"Arr\u00eatons de claquer de l'argent pour les \u00e9nergies fossiles que nous ne produisons pas!\" by bfmtv.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/entreprises/energie/bruno-le-maire-arretons-de-claquer-de-l-argent-pour-les-energies-fossiles-que-nous-ne-produisons-pas_AV-202210270272.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Bruno Le Maire: \"Arr\u00eatons de claquer de l'argent pour les \u00e9nergies fossiles que nous ne produisons pas!\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6992806534669869057,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Faites ce que je dis, pas ce que je fais ! Apr\u00e8s avoir abondamment subventionn\u00e9 carburants et gaz (import\u00e9s en quasi-totalit\u00e9 puisque la France ne produit aucun gaz et 1% de son p\u00e9trole), voici que notre ministre de l'\u00e9conomie d\u00e9clare sur BFM... que ce n'est pas une bonne id\u00e9e.\n\nDe fait, cela fait tr\u00e8s longtemps que nous savons que de subventionner les combustibles fossiles a quelques petits inconv\u00e9nients :\n- cela vide les caisses de l'Etat, qui du coup ne peuvent pas \u00eatre vid\u00e9es une deuxi\u00e8me fois pour financer ce qui permettrait pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment de nous d\u00e9carboner (voir https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf )\n- cela maintient la d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 ces combustibles alors qu'il faut s'en passer\n- cela apauvrit le pays, en transf\u00e9rant massivement de l'argent depuis la France vers les fournisseurs de p\u00e9trole et de gaz.\n\nQuestion : pourquoi, alors, le faisons nous ? On pourrait y rajouter une autre question : pourquoi les gilets jaunes apparaissent quand le prix augmente par la fiscalit\u00e9 (avec l'argent qui reste en France), et non quand le prix de march\u00e9 augmente (avec l'argent qui quitte le pays) ?\n\nTentons quelques explications :\n\n- La promesse politique est faite sans crise. Du coup il n'y a pas de plan B pr\u00eat pour... lesdites crises, pourtant pr\u00e9visibles pour partie, plan B que l'on aurait pens\u00e9 et communiqu\u00e9 \u00e0 la population \u00e0 l'avance (le dispositif Ecowatt est un exemple, et il est possible de g\u00e9n\u00e9raliser cela \u00e0 toutes les \u00e9nergies)\n\n- les modifications structurelles d\u00e9favorables sont vues comme des crises transitoires. Du coup on enclenche un dispositif de soutien en se persuadant qu'il sera bref... donc indolore.\n\n- au moment o\u00f9 le prix de march\u00e9 augmente de mani\u00e8re \"impr\u00e9vue\" (si le march\u00e9 \u00e9tait pr\u00e9visible, ca se saurait :) ), le pouvoir d'achat baisse. Or en d\u00e9mocratie le court terme prime. L'arbitrage se fait donc de mani\u00e8re quasi-automatique en faveur de la subvention (qui r\u00e8gle le court terme) et au d\u00e9triment du reste (qui porte sur des horizons de temps plus longs), et la couleur politique n'y change pas grand chose. LFI comme le RN et LR \u00e9taient favorables \u00e0 une subvention sur le prix des carburants lors de la derni\u00e8re campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle.\n\nPour en sortir, il faut accepter que de toute fa\u00e7on l'abondance p\u00e9troli\u00e8re va diminuer (et donc aller aux formations o\u00f9 cela est expliqu\u00e9 :) ), apprendre ensuite \u00e0 faire la p\u00e9dagogie du probl\u00e8me, et enfin discuter de mani\u00e8re adulte avec une population qui peut tr\u00e8s bien comprendre que de s'organiser autrement sera imp\u00e9ratif.\n\nCeci rejoint la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la question de la diff\u00e9rence de r\u00e9action \u00e0 la taxe et la hausse de prix de march\u00e9 : dans le premier cas l'argent va \u00e0 une puissance publique \u00e0 qui nous ne faisons pas confiance, alors que dans le 2\u00e8me nous sommes dans la fatalit\u00e9 que nous acceptons. Peut-\u00eatre que de mettre un peu plus de fatalit\u00e9 pertinente (et un peu moins de promesses intenables) dans le discours de la puisance publique aiderait \u00e0 avancer..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6992806534669869057,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6992806535496105985,urn:li:activity:6992806535496105985,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 163, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6992806535496105985,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6992806535496105985,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7397446984893249883)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbone4.com \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Hydrog\u00e8ne bas-carbone : quels usages pertinents \u00e0 moyen terme dans un monde d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 ? | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/publication-hydrogene-bas-carbone" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Hydrog\u00e8ne bas-carbone : quels usages pertinents \u00e0 moyen terme dans un monde d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 ? | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6992428300048474112,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les uns l'\u00e9voquent comme un composant majeur de la d\u00e9carbonation, d'autres sont beaucoup plus sceptiques sur sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 changer massivement la donne dans les d\u00e9cennies qui viennent. De quoi s'agit-il ? Du plus petit \u00e9l\u00e9ment du monde qui nous entoure : l'hydrog\u00e8ne. \n\nQuoi qu'\u00e9tant l'\u00e9l\u00e9ment le plus abondant de l'univers et de loin, l'hydrog\u00e8ne n'existe pas \u00e0 l'\u00e9tat natif (c'est \u00e0 dire sous forme de mol\u00e9cule H2 \"pr\u00eate \u00e0 l'emploi\" que l'on pourrait trouver dans l'environnement) sur Terre, \u00e0 l'exception de quelques flux (marginaux) provenant du sous-sol.\n\nPour disposer d'hydrog\u00e8ne \"pur\", il faut donc... de l'\u00e9nergie, qui va servir \u00e0 dissocier l'hydrog\u00e8ne des autres atomes auxquels il est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement associ\u00e9 dans des mol\u00e9cules courantes. On peut ainsi le s\u00e9parer de l'oxyg\u00e8ne dans la mol\u00e9cule d'eau - H2O - par \u00e9lectrolyse, ou le s\u00e9parer du carbone dans les hydrocarbures - de formule g\u00e9n\u00e9rale CnHp - par un proc\u00e9d\u00e9 qui s'appelle le vaporeformage, et qui consiste \u00e0 chauffer tr\u00e8s fort un m\u00e9lange d'hydrocarbures et de vapeur d'eau pour obtenir de l'hydrog\u00e8ne et du CO2.\n\nSelon l'\u00e9nergie utilis\u00e9e pour op\u00e9rer cette dissociation (de la chaleur pour le vaporeformage ou de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour l'\u00e9lectrolyse), et selon l'usage final de cet hydrog\u00e8ne, l'affaire est potentiellement int\u00e9ressante - ou pas - pour contribuer de mani\u00e8re significative \"un jour\" \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation d'une partie de nos flux physiques actuels (de transport, de production, etc), ou pas.\n\nEn 57 pages, Carbone 4 vous propose un panorama des modes actuels et futurs possibles de production de l'hydrog\u00e8ne, des usages actuels et futurs possibles, des contenus carbone actuels et futurs possibles des couples (production, usage), et cela permet de hi\u00e9rarchiser les usages par ordre de pertinence (\u00e0 savoir \u00e0 la fois les plus accessibles techniquement - donc physiquement - et \u00e9vitant le plus de CO2) pour cet hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 quand ce dernier sera disponible. \n\nLa publication fournit \u00e9videmment le contenu carbone de l'hydrog\u00e8ne s'il est produit avec de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 toujours carbon\u00e9e, et \u00e0 ce moment il n'est pas difficile de constater que cela ne r\u00e9sout pas du tout nos probl\u00e8mes. Dire \"hydrog\u00e8ne\" ne suffit donc pas.\n\nCe sont les usages \"fixes\" qui doivent b\u00e9n\u00e9ficer des premi\u00e8res mol\u00e9cules d'hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9, \u00e0 savoir la production d'engrais, de m\u00e9thanol et d'acier. Dans les transports terrestres l'hydrog\u00e8ne produit par \u00e9lectrolyse est p\u00e9nalis\u00e9 par un rendement global deux fois moindre que l'usage direct de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, et par une logistique complexe (qui n'est pas n\u00e9cessaire pour les usages fixes).\n\nLa conclusion que l'on est tent\u00e9 d'en tirer est donc que la puissance publique devrait fl\u00e9cher les premiers milliards inject\u00e9s dans la fili\u00e8re hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 vers ces usages fixes et exclusivement ceux-ci. Incidemment c'est aussi la pr\u00e9conisation du Shift Project dans le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise. Toujours cette satan\u00e9e physique !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6992428300048474112,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6992428300992143360,urn:li:activity:6992428300992143360,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 183, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6992428300992143360,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6992428300992143360,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6992428300992143360", 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7220921314876754974)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "jancovici.com \u2022 9 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Une interview dans l'H\u00e9micycle en septembre 2022 by jancovici.com", "actionTarget": "https://jancovici.com/publications-et-co/interviews/une-interview-dans-lhemicycle-en-septembre-2022/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une interview dans l'H\u00e9micycle en septembre 2022" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6992125337107070976,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "O\u00f9 causer de politique publique concernant l'\u00e9nergie et le climat ? Une premi\u00e8re bonne r\u00e9ponse serait de dire partout o\u00f9 l'on peut, puisque, d\u00e8s que nous sommes majeurs, nous avons tous le droit de vote. Mais une deuxi\u00e8me mani\u00e8re de voir la chose est de dire que c'est particuli\u00e8rement indiqu\u00e9 dans une revue qui s'adresse \u00e0 des parlementaires, puisque ces derniers ont pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment comme m\u00e9tier de d\u00e9cider de ce que doit faire la piussance publique.\n\nDont acte : en juillet, la revue l'H\u00e9micycle, qui comme son nom l'indique a vocation \u00e0 s'adresser avant tout au monde des \u00e9lus, est venu me proposer une interview. Sans grande surprise, il y est donc surtout question... de politique : planification, formation des \u00e9lus et fonctionnaires, pertinence de la politique publique, etc.\n\nCette interview est publi\u00e9e alors qu'un sondage suppl\u00e9mentaire sugg\u00e8re que les Europ\u00e9ens \"en voudraient plus\" en mati\u00e8re d'action contre le r\u00e9chauffement climatique : https://lnkd.in/etKph3B8 Alors, qu'attendent ceux qui entendent nous repr\u00e9senter pour passer aux actes ?\n\nSauf que... \"en vouloir plus\" est justement l\u00e0 o\u00f9 les difficult\u00e9s commencent, parce que la probabilit\u00e9 que tous les gens inquiets soient par ailleurs d'accord sur ce qu'il faut faire, dans quel ordre, et avec quelles contreparties, reste une question non investigu\u00e9e, faute de sondages qui \"entrent dans le dur\". \n\nDans celui publi\u00e9 par La Fondation Jean Jaur\u00e8s qui fonde la conclusion de l'article de France Info (https://lnkd.in/ebfheEFk ), il manque des questions qui permettraient d'en avoir le coeur net en abordant des arbitrages pas simples, comme par exemple :\n- \u00eates vous toujours d'accord pour que l'on en fasse plus pour le climat si cela signifie perdre du pouvoir d'achat \u00e0 court terme ?\n- \u00eates vous toujours d'accord pour agir si cela signifie que le nucl\u00e9aire est plus pertinent que les ENR \u00e0 terme ?\n- \u00eates vous toujours d'accord pour que l'on en fasse plus si cela signifie que certains m\u00e9tiers vont fortement diminuer ?\n- etc.\n\nCa ne veut pas dire qu'il faut uniquement d\u00e9sesp\u00e9rer Billancourt, mais il ne faut pas non plus en rester \u00e0 des questions bisounours comme \"pensez vous qu'il faille acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer dans les ENR ?\". Savoir qui est pr\u00eat \u00e0 quel effort et avec quelles contreparties aiderait beaucoup pour r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 des plans qui aient une chance de se r\u00e9aliser. Pour le moment nous naviguons pour partie \u00e0 l'aveugle.\n\nLa maturit\u00e9 n'est peut-\u00eatre pas encore l\u00e0 du c\u00f4t\u00e9 politique, mais il reste difficile de savoir \u00e0 quel point elle est d\u00e9j\u00e0 l\u00e0 pour une large majorit\u00e9 de la population (et alors il y a juste un probl\u00e8me de repr\u00e9sentativit\u00e9), ou bien si nous - les \u00e9lecteurs - restons aussi parfaitement incoh\u00e9rents, et nos \u00e9lus n'en sont alors que le reflet parfaitement logique. 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nucl\u00e9aire civil c'est 5% des probl\u00e8mes mais 95% des discussions\". Nous voici donc repartis pour un d\u00e9bat public de plus sur le nucl\u00e9aire, alors m\u00eame que les opposants \u00e0 l'atome civil, en France, se plaignent assez souvent du \"manque de d\u00e9bats et de d\u00e9mocratie\" :).\n\nDe fait, notre pays n'a jamais fait de \"d\u00e9bat public\" limit\u00e9 au gaz (pourtant l'actualit\u00e9 le justifierait !) ou au p\u00e9trole. On peut inclure dans cette r\u00e9flexion les missions d'information et commissions d'enqu\u00eate du Parlement, qui, l\u00e0 aussi, n'ont quasiment jamais exist\u00e9 limit\u00e9es au p\u00e9trole, au charbon ou au gaz (alors qu'une commission d'enqu\u00eate sur les possibilit\u00e9s futures d'approvisionnement en p\u00e9trole sous contrainte g\u00e9ologique serait plus que pertinente) mais ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s nombreuses sur le nucl\u00e9aire.\n\nQu'esp\u00e9rer de celui qui d\u00e9marre ? La seule chose qui n'en sortira pas, malheureusement, sera une meilleure information technique pour l'essentiel de la population fran\u00e7aise. Cela ne d\u00e9pend pas tant de la qualit\u00e9 des dossiers pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s par les participants \u00e0 ces d\u00e9bats organis\u00e9s par la Commission Nationale du D\u00e9bat Public - ils repr\u00e9sentent une infime partie de la population fran\u00e7aise - ou de l'organisation de ces lieux d'\u00e9change que de la mani\u00e8re dont les media et les r\u00e9seaux sociaux vulgarisent des notions complexes aupr\u00e8s du grand public.\n\nGrand public pour lequel l'adh\u00e9sion ou pas au nucl\u00e9aire d\u00e9pend avant tout d'un param\u00e8tre : le prix ! Le regain r\u00e9cent d'int\u00e9r\u00eat pour l'atome dans un certain nombre de pays n'a pas beaucoup d'autres d\u00e9terminants que l'explosion du prix du gaz, et surement pas celui du climat, qui est un contributeur \"lent\" au changement d'opinion (alors que le prix est un contributeur \"rapide\").\n\nMais voil\u00e0 : construire un r\u00e9acteur ne se fait pas en une semaine. Pour toute \u00e9nergie, entre l'envie d'en disposer et le fait d'en avoir en quantit\u00e9 significative il s'\u00e9coule des d\u00e9cennies. La p\u00e9riode \u00e0 venir va donc \u00eatre celle de toutes les frustrations pour tous les pays qui \"comptent\" sur plus de cette \u00e9nergie :\n- la Su\u00e8de (https://bit.ly/3W7VNeL ).\n- les Pays Bas (https://bit.ly/3TKam6Q )\n- la Pologne (https://bit.ly/3Fg87DY ) et plus largement en Europe de l'Est\n- le Japon (https://bit.ly/3D4B0QM )\n- sans parler de la Belgique et en Allemagne qui remettent \u00e0 plus tard la fermeture des r\u00e9acteurs existants.\n\nEn France, alors m\u00eame que l'essentiel de la population serait favorable \u00e0 la construction de nouveaux r\u00e9acteurs (https://bit.ly/3DfLNYk ), ces derniers ne peuvent sortir rapidement de terre pour remplacer un gaz et un p\u00e9trole devenus moins disponibles.\n\nIl y a au moins un sujet sur lequel les fr\u00e8res ennemis pro-nuke et pro-enr vont \u00eatre renvoy\u00e9s dos \u00e0 dos : aucun des deux camps ne peut significativement all\u00e9ger l'effort d'\u00e9conomies que l'actualit\u00e9 rend d\u00e9sormais incontournable \u00e0 court terme. Pour qu'il en soit autrement il aurait fallu s'y prendre il y a 20 ans." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6991327110355152896,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6991327111152074752,urn:li:activity:6991327111152074752,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 105, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6991327111152074752,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6991327111152074752,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6991036665293086720,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Consultant un jour, consultant toujours : \u00e0 Carbone 4, nous (enfin pas moi :) ) nous sommes empar\u00e9s du plan de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 du gouvernement fran\u00e7ais, qui vise \u00e0 faire passer la consommation d'\u00e9nergie finale du pays de 1600 \u00e0 1450 TWh (1 TWh = un milliard de kWh) en 2 ans, pour voir ce qui s'y trouvait exactement, et notamment si les mesures propos\u00e9es sont en ad\u00e9quation avec l'objectif.\n\nEn mati\u00e8re d'\u00e9conomies d'\u00e9nergie, on peut d\u00e9terminer en gros 3 cat\u00e9gories :\n- l'efficacit\u00e9 vise \u00e0 diminuer l'\u00e9nergie n\u00e9cessaire pour un acte de consommation. Tabler sur l'efficacit\u00e9 concentre l'effort sur les entreprises et ne demande pas d'efforts au consommateur (donc en d\u00e9mocratie on pr\u00e9f\u00e8re)\n- la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 vise \u00e0 supprimer d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment un acte de sa consommation, pour pouvoir r\u00e9aliser des \u00e9conomies d'\u00e9nergie (ou de mat\u00e9riaux ou d'\u00e9missions). A la diff\u00e9rence de l'efficacit\u00e9 l'effort est essentiellement \u00e0 la charge des individus.\n- enfin la pauvret\u00e9 (dont il n'est pas question dans cet article de Carbone 4, puisque c'est une lecture critique d'un plan qui n'en parle pas) repr\u00e9sente la fin subie d'une consommation faute de moyens pour se la payer.\n\nLa conclusion de l'analyse de Carbone 4 est que le gouvernement appelle \"sobri\u00e9t\u00e9\" de nombreuses mesures qui ne rel\u00e8vent pas de cette cat\u00e9gorie, mais qui sont en pratique de l'efficacit\u00e9. Elles ne sont \u00e9videmment pas inutiles, mais il n'emp\u00eache que le terme employ\u00e9 n'est pas le bon.\n\nCarbone 4 a par ailleurs regard\u00e9 un catalogue de 50 propositions pr\u00e9cises faites par Negawatt (association dont l'acte de naissance \u00e9tait largement associ\u00e9 aux \u00e9conomies d'\u00e9nergie dans le b\u00e2timent) dans le b\u00e2timent et les transports, pour comparer le potentiel d'\u00e9conomies des mesures d\u00e9crites avec ce qui est propos\u00e9 par le gouvernement. Il s'av\u00e8re qu'il y a quasiment un facteur 2 entre les deux (60 TWh d'\u00e9conomies annuelles dans les propositions de Negawatt vs. 35 dans ce qui est propos\u00e9 par le gouvernement), et par ailleurs un petit doute sur la m\u00e9thode, puisque les mesures gouvernementales rel\u00e8vent surtout de l'incitation. \n\nIl est assez peu probable que nous allons r\u00e9duire l'\u00e9nergie fossile \u00e0 la vitesse demand\u00e9e par l'Accord de Paris - aid\u00e9 par l'ami Poutine :) - avec juste de l'efficacit\u00e9 des exhortations \u00e0 la population. Peut-\u00eatre que le gouvernement peut tenter un exercice in\u00e9dit : expliquer l'\u00e9quation de Kaya \u00e0 la population ? 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7105203313397324722)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "gouvernement.fr \u2022 15 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: La m\u00e9thode du Gouvernement sur la planification \u00e9cologique by gouvernement.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.gouvernement.fr/actualite/la-methode-du-gouvernement-sur-la-planification-ecologique" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La m\u00e9thode du Gouvernement sur la planification \u00e9cologique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6990207388263817216,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Vendredi dernier, notre premi\u00e8re ministre a tenu un discours sur la planification \u00e9cologique \u00e0 La Recyclerie (lieu \u00e9videmment en ad\u00e9quation avec le propos), avec un nom de code qui est d\u00e9sormais \"France Nation Verte\".\n\nLes discours politiques - et les concepts associ\u00e9s - sont toujours \u00e0 prendre avec des pincettes. Apr\u00e8s la maison qui br\u00fble de Chirac ou la plan\u00e8te qui devait devenir \"great again\" de Macron, nous avons tou(te)s pu constater que la direction d'ensemble n'avait pas fondamentalement chang\u00e9. \n\nD\u00e8s que l'on passait aux travaux pratiques, le cadre de d\u00e9cision ou d'arbitrage sur le terrain est rest\u00e9 le m\u00eame. Par exemple nous n'avons pas chang\u00e9 la m\u00e9thode permettant de d\u00e9cider ou pas de la construction d'une infrastructure routi\u00e8re, la valorisation \u00e9conomique d'une surface b\u00e2tie vs non b\u00e2tie, le classement des \u00e9tablissements d'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur en fonction du seul salaire de sortie, ou la valeur du march\u00e9 vs la planification dans les politiques publiques.\n\nUne fois que cette (grosse) pr\u00e9caution (amenant parfois \u00e0 de grosses d\u00e9ceptions) a \u00e9t\u00e9 prise, que retenir de ce discours ? \n\n-> que la planification doit se faire par fili\u00e8re ou par usage, c'est-\u00e0-dire exactement la m\u00e9thode qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 retenue dans le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf)\n\n-> qu'il faut n\u00e9anmoins r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir de mani\u00e8re transverse\n\n-> qu'il faut impliquer les territoires, ce qui est l'objet de \"strat\u00e9gie de r\u00e9silience des territoires\" du Shift Project (https://bit.ly/3sqPBkF ). \n\n-> qu'il est question de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques, de v\u00e9los, de r\u00e9novation des b\u00e2timents, de r\u00e9industrialisation bas carbone (ce que r\u00e9clame plus ou moins le patron de France Industrie : https://bit.ly/3TsYOoz ), de recyclage, d'agriculture plus \"durable\", de formation, d'optimisation sous contrainte de m\u00e9taux ou d'espace, d'emploi, et de jeunes.\n\nA quelques d\u00e9tails pr\u00e8s (comme la croissance verte \ud83d\ude02 ) c'est du Shift Project dans le texte. Dont acte. Pour que cela devienne une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 dans les faits, il va falloir que la r\u00e9volution copernicienne descende chez les acteurs de terrain, et cela commence par un changement de l'ordre de priorit\u00e9 des crit\u00e8res pris en compte lors des d\u00e9cisions pratiques (par exemple le CO2 ou la biodiversit\u00e9 avant les euros pour une fili\u00e8re \u00e9conomique). \n\nC'est seulement \u00e0 cette condition que l'on pourra dire de ce discours qu'il annonce une r\u00e9elle inflexion. Aligner des milliards (m\u00eame quelques dizaines) en plus de l'existant qui resterait en l'\u00e9tat ne changera h\u00e9las pas grand chose. Dans tous les domaines \u00e9voqu\u00e9s et tous les minist\u00e8res, la premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape \u00e0 suivre est donc de se mettre d'accord sur la nouvelle m\u00e9thode d'arbitrage (ce qui accessoirement permettra d'\u00e9vacuer quelques chim\u00e8res technologiques qui ne seront jamais \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle). \n\nSi cela n'est pas fait - et ca ne sera pas facile - ce discours sera un de plus sans lendemain, ce qui serait dommage. Nous n'avons plus le temps !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6990207388263817216,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6990207388993658880,urn:li:activity:6990207388993658880,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 41, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6990207388993658880,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6990207388993658880,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6990207388993658880", "threadId": 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Mais au fait, que trouve-t-on dans les \u00e9nergies renouvelables dans notre pays ?\n\nLe r\u00e9flexe aujourd'hui, quand on dit \"ENR\", est de visualiser une \u00e9olienne ou un champ de panneaux solaires. Mais n'y a-t-il rien d'autre dans cette cat\u00e9gorie ? Le graphique ci-dessous (source https://lnkd.in/etxYaJTb ) donne la production par type d'\u00e9nergie en TWh depuis 1970, et l'on voit tout de suite que le photovolta\u00efque est l'une des plus petites contributions actuellement, par contre l'\u00e9olien arrive d\u00e9sormais dans le trio de t\u00eate (la consommation totale d'\u00e9nergie finale en France est de 1600 TWh, soit 1600 milliards de kWh). \n\nPar ordre d'importance d\u00e9croissante les 3 marches du podium sont occup\u00e9es par :\n- la biomasse solide, avec un tiers du total, est essentiellement compos\u00e9e de bois de feu ou de granul\u00e9s, et est essentiellement utilis\u00e9e pour le chauffage chez les particuliers (po\u00eales \u00e0 bois - inserts - chaudi\u00e8res bois)\n- l'hydro\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, avec 18% du total ENR, fournit un peu plus de 10% de la production \u00e9lectrique nationale\n- enfin l'\u00e9olien, avec 12% du total ENR en 2020, fournit un peu moins de 7% de la production \u00e9lectrique nationale.\n\nPour favoriser une ENR plut\u00f4t qu'une autre, il faut consid\u00e9rer les crit\u00e8res suivants :\n- le CO2 \u00e9vit\u00e9 par unit\u00e9 physique investie (tonne de m\u00e9tal ou de ciment, m2 occup\u00e9, etc) et la provenance de ces unit\u00e9s physiques\n- le CO2 \u00e9vit\u00e9 par euro d\u00e9pens\u00e9 (mais ce sont au vu des prix actuels qui ne seront peut-\u00eatre pas valables plus tard alors que les unit\u00e9s physiques sont plus fiables)\n- le besoin en services syst\u00e8me dans le cas de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (stockage, r\u00e9seau, ajustement en fr\u00e9quence)\n- les atteintes \u00e0 la biodiversit\u00e9 (notamment dans le cas de la biomasse ou des modes gourmands en espace)\n- le calendrier et la p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 des alternatives actuellement utilis\u00e9es.\n\nRien de tout cela n'est simple, sachant qu'\u00e0 terme il ne peut rester qu'un m\u00e9lange d'ENR (mais pas n\u00e9cessairement essentiellement \u00e9lectriques) et de nucl\u00e9aire. L'id\u00e9al serait que le d\u00e9bat national \u00e0 venir permette de converger sur les faits et sur la m\u00e9thode de tri. C'est quelque part plus important que de converger sur des mesures de court terme pour favoriser telle ou telle ENR sans s'\u00eatre clarifi\u00e9 les id\u00e9es sur le cadre global.\n" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6989884539988758528,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6989884540794068993,urn:li:activity:6989884540794068993,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 97, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6989884540794068993,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6989884540794068993,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8198186675844631990)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Climat : la Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande veut taxer les pets de vaches by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/climat-la-nouvelle-zelande-veut-taxer-les-pets-de-vaches-1867974" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Climat\u00a0: la Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande veut taxer les pets de vaches" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6989512779053285376,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il est moins souvent cit\u00e9 que le CO2, mais il compte aussi. Le m\u00e9thane - de formule CH4 - repr\u00e9sente un peu plus de 20% des \u00e9missions humaines de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. En tonnage, les \u00e9missions mondiales sont presque 100 fois plus faibles que celles du CO2 (450 millions de tonnes contre 43 milliards pour le CO2), mais une mol\u00e9cule de m\u00e9thane est 30 fois plus efficace pour augmenter l'effet de serre sur un si\u00e8cle qu'une mol\u00e9cule de CO2.\n\nCe m\u00e9thane poss\u00e8de plusieurs sources d'origine humaine (voir graphique en commentaire), et l'une d'entre elles est les ruminants, \u00e0 cause de la fermentation qui a lieu dans le premier de leurs 4 estomacs apr\u00e8s l'oesophage : la panse.\n\nNB : le titre de l'article des Echos est techniquement inexact puisque le m\u00e9thane des ruminants ne sort pas pas le trou du c... mais par le haut :)\n\nDe ce fait, le pays des hobbits, qui compte quelques dizaines de millions de ruminants pour 5 millions d'habitants, voit le m\u00e9thane compter pour environ la moiti\u00e9 de ses \u00e9missions domestiques, alors que dans un pays comme la France, o\u00f9 pourtant nous avons 15 millions de t\u00eates de b\u00e9tail, nous sommes \u00e0 un peu moins de 15%.\n\nLa Nouvelle Z\u00e9lande a donc formul\u00e9 l'id\u00e9e de mettre une taxe carbone sur le m\u00e9thane. Evidemment cette id\u00e9e n'est pas mieux accueillie par les \u00e9leveurs que la taxe carbone par les utilisateurs de p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon, mais elle n'est pas d\u00e9nu\u00e9e de fondement.\n\nUn des avantages de s'attaquer au m\u00e9thane est que ce gaz ne reste pas aussi longtemps que le CO2 dans l'atmosph\u00e8re. Il poss\u00e8de un \"puits\" atmosph\u00e9rique : la mol\u00e9cule de m\u00e9thane est en effet d\u00e9grad\u00e9e dans l'air m\u00eame (par des radicaux hydroxyle), ce qui n'est pas le cas du CO2, ce qui cr\u00e9e des surplus qui restent bien plus longtemps dans l'air pour ce dernier gaz.\n\nUne action forte sur les \u00e9missions de m\u00e9thane conduit donc \u00e0 une baisse assez peu de temps derri\u00e8re de sa concentration atmosph\u00e9rique, et donc de l'effet de serre suppl\u00e9mentaire du \u00e0 ce gaz.\n\nL'industrie ou les transports seront peu concern\u00e9s pour passer \u00e0 l'action : on va parler pratiques agricoles (la m\u00e9thanisation des vaches d\u00e9pend un peu de ce qu'elles mangent) et r\u00e9gimes alimentaires (moins de bovins...), gestion des d\u00e9chets (moins de d\u00e9charges ou r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration du m\u00e9thane de ces derni\u00e8res), et aussi production \u00e9lectrique, puisque la ventilation des mines de charbon - utilis\u00e9 aux 2/3 pour produire des \u00e9lectrons - \u00e9vacue du m\u00e9thane (le principal constituant du grisou), vers l'atmosph\u00e8re.\n\nDans les rizi\u00e8res, on peut faire baisser les \u00e9missions (issues de la d\u00e9composition de d\u00e9bris v\u00e9g\u00e9taux sous l'eau) avec... des canards. Ces derniers brassent l'eau (ce qui l'oxyg\u00e8ne et g\u00eane les bact\u00e9ries qui produisent le m\u00e9thane \u00e0 partir des d\u00e9bris v\u00e9g\u00e9taux) et la filtrent pour se nourrir (ce qui diminue la mati\u00e8re organique en suspension). C'est low tech mais efficace !\n\nCe m\u00e9thane \u00e9tait aussi le sujet de la chronique du matin sur RTL : https://bit.ly/3VOt0Mj (graphiques en moins, la radio ne peut pas tout)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6989512779053285376,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6989512780055748608,urn:li:activity:6989512780055748608,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 97, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6989512780055748608,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6989512780055748608,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": 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Comme il le dit, sa vie s'est orient\u00e9 sur 3 axes :..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Bruno Colmant - Le n\u00e9olib\u00e9ralisme est incompatible avec l\u2019\u00e9cologie ! | LIMIT" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6989160875127373824,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 185, "length": 10, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Vinz", "lastName": "Kant\u00e9", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABnoaesBFyeDnfMQ7vVH_WdqzzSE1gZnFeI", "occupation": "Cr\u00e9ateur, Animateur, Prod, conf\u00e9rencier chez #LIMIT #SchoolUp \ud83c\udf0d\ud83d\udc9a", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:434661867", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAABnoaesBFyeDnfMQ7vVH_WdqzzSE1gZnFeI", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1643988095695?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=7C2zsu2AnUIGYGJLxdwy6H0Pfz49i4bCG42UTyrDQiU", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1643988095695?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=4mbItdC9wOaAB8PKJJb-Yb_-TvLU7cJhmTKvMc1TnoE", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 350 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E16AQGwWxvh-yImnw/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_" } }, "publicIdentifier": "vinzkante", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1652368741388?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=oBVj0OP183lIxUjW-ObsX93mvqUUhnlf8CUv9CYdkL8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1652368741388?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=QLthymcqCv14W4AiYsuUqj2QbfpGNDM6Pj43wuQjwBY", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1652368741388?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=qpYGcnw-PgEP8UZgyFGsOXkDPZUoHvFO1KR2QFlKBb4", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1652368741388?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=_jJyLbpMGXX6ocxEt866mRbwvojncDU-oE19Bdveik8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E03AQFVgbwuDHeE9Q/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "iO8N/CWmQ1uBucXeQHd0nQ==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" }, { "start": 221, "length": 23, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Prof. Dr. Bruno ", "lastName": "Colmant ", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAY0OwQBNZUFXdT902dMVDMSitRPasWX9Oc", "occupation": "Member of the Belgian Royal Academy, Ph.D. in Economy. University Professor (UCLouvain, ULB, Vlerick, ICHEC and St-Louis). President of the Belgian Finance Center. My posts are strictly own.", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:104086276", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAAY0OwQBNZUFXdT902dMVDMSitRPasWX9Oc", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1658335906908?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=RDRgsqAUcjxsmSTeTsFBSGccR_MURjTgaREfuu1Qkyw", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1658335906908?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=ANH2xzbGzFXwniRtnUTvVpAyukdmy1VaKhU1So6646w", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 350 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E16AQEexz40u15vjQ/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_" } }, "publicIdentifier": "brunocolmant", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1654431601631?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=ELjjarwc-osNxGZTfHgPs6fOgPuQ6t_KiTl1FG-x3DM", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1654431601631?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=wyrTUncEjkZk7A3AULirgizosJd4Qq7VYdAKK5K0pWs", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1654431601631?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=LlbnrSRV4nTl9v6JR5471I94Q9E4rlMFK0ng2zV2fpI", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1654431601631?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=IYTUMCRjbnA4dKYR91lCzEnh388jjrhfK6_PkSSWRZ8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E03AQF3CthzFsVYCQ/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "PEGLY3PRQvOWEuKgDLRkmA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Peut-on devenir un partisan de l'Etat strat\u00e8ge apr\u00e8s avoir enseign\u00e9 pendant des d\u00e9cennies que le march\u00e9 avait presque la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 tout ? La preuve que oui dans cette nouvelle vid\u00e9o de Vinz Kant\u00e9, qui passe \u00e0 la question Prof. Dr. Bruno Colmant sur son parcours, et le changement de regard qu'il porte sur sa mati\u00e8re (l'\u00e9conomie) par rapport \u00e0 ce qui l'animait il y a quelques temps.\n\nBruno Colmant est un \u00e9conomiste belge qui a pass\u00e9 l'essentiel de sa carri\u00e8re dans des fonctions \"au service\" de l'\u00e9conomie lib\u00e9ralis\u00e9e et financiaris\u00e9e dans laquelle nous vivons aujourd'hui, qu'il s'agisse de conseiller un ministre des finances ou de diriger une institution financi\u00e8re. Il a \u00e9galement enseign\u00e9 (l'\u00e9conomie, \u00e9videmment) \u00e0 des g\u00e9n\u00e9rations d'\u00e9tudiants.\n\nD'aucuns lui reprocheront peut-\u00eatre ce pass\u00e9, mais les autres seront particuli\u00e8rement int\u00e9ress\u00e9s (c'est mon cas) par ce regard de l'int\u00e9rieur, qui permet de porter un jugement \u00e9clair\u00e9 sur les sujets \u00e9voqu\u00e9s.\n\nL'enseignement de l'\u00e9conomie tout d'abord : Bruno Colmant rappelle fort opportun\u00e9ment que, en l'esp\u00e8ce, un professeur dans cette mati\u00e8re transmet n\u00e9cessairement \u00e0 ses \u00e9l\u00e8ves des points de vue tr\u00e8s structurants m\u00eame quand en apparence il ne traite que de sujets techniques. D\u00e9crire un rouage d'un syst\u00e8me sans autre forme de commentaire c'est valider en fait la pertinence du syst\u00e8me...\n\nIl rappelle que le n\u00e9olib\u00e9ralisme a eu deux cons\u00e9quences sur le r\u00f4le de l'Etat :\n- il a raccourci ses horizons de temps puisque le r\u00f4le de la puissance publique n'est pas de planifier l'activit\u00e9 (et Colmant consid\u00e8re que ce n'est pas pertinent dans l'\u00e9poque actuelle)\n- ce dernier s'est vu confin\u00e9 au r\u00f4le de redistribution, au surplus dans un contexte o\u00f9 les acteurs priv\u00e9s cherchent syst\u00e9matiquement \u00e0 privatiser les profits et socialiser les pertes\n\nL'interview\u00e9 consid\u00e8re aussi que la pub nous manipule (ce que Patrick Le Lay - ancien patron de TF1 - avait eu au moins le courage de dire sans fard), que les gafam doivent contribuer au financement des infrastructures qu'ils utilisent en Europe. Plaider pour les imp\u00f4ts est courant pour les \"\u00e9cologistes\", mais plus rare pour un membre de l'establishment, je peux en t\u00e9moigner !\n\nL\u00e0 o\u00f9 il fait preuve d'un opinion encore plus rare dans sa cat\u00e9gorie, c'est quand il indique qu'il y a une d\u00e9connexion de plus en plus large des \u00e9lites avec ce qui se passe dans le pays (chose qui se passe probablement aussi au UK en ce moment). Il y voit un ferment d'une possible violence et je ne peux que partager cette crainte.\n\nA quand notre Bruno Colmant en France ? 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Le r\u00e9chauffement climatique en France s\u2019annonce pire que pr\u00e9vu by lejournal.cnrs.fr", "actionTarget": "https://lejournal.cnrs.fr/articles/le-rechauffement-climatique-en-france-sannonce-pire-que-prevu" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le r\u00e9chauffement climatique en France s\u2019annonce pire que pr\u00e9vu" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6988815566278946816,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Journal du CNRS publie un article qui relaie une \u00e9tude qui vient d'\u00eatre effectu\u00e9e par des chercheurs appartenant \u00e0 des unit\u00e9s mixtes CNRS/M\u00e9t\u00e9o France. Ils ont recalibr\u00e9 les mod\u00e8les qui portent sur le climat futur en France avec les donn\u00e9es d'observation des derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies, et cette op\u00e9ration conduit \u00e0 un r\u00e9chauffement plus marqu\u00e9 \u00e0 la fin du si\u00e8cle par rapport \u00e0 ce qui \u00e9tait envisag\u00e9 jusqu'alors.\n\nAvec un sc\u00e9nario d'\u00e9mission de type \"2\u00b0C\", conduisant donc la plan\u00e8te \u00e0 se r\u00e9chauffer de... 2\u00b0C en 2100 par rapport \u00e0 1900, la temp\u00e9rature moyenne monterait de 3,8 \u00b0C en France \u00e0 cette \u00e9ch\u00e9ance, contre 3,4 dans les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes estimations.\n\nUne fois que l'on a dit cela, qu'en d\u00e9duire ? D'abord que l'incertitude est bien le signe d'un risque non limit\u00e9. Si il y a grande une incertitude sur le r\u00e9chauffement \u00e0 venir, quand le brouillard se dissipe on peut d\u00e9couvrir une situation moins affreuse que celle redout\u00e9e... ou bien pire.\n\nPar ailleurs la difficult\u00e9 pour savoir combien nous allons souffrir avec ce possible suppl\u00e9ment de temp\u00e9rature moyenne est de passer de ce param\u00e8tre \"primaire\" qu'est la temp\u00e9rature \u00e0 des cons\u00e9quences \"secondaires\" sur la s\u00e9cheresse des sols, la fonte des glaciers ou les temp\u00eates, et plus encore \u00e0 des cons\u00e9quences \"tertiaires\" sur les r\u00e9coltes, les for\u00eats, les infrastructures, les maladies, les migrations, les salinisations de plaines c\u00f4ti\u00e8res, ou encore les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts des infrastructures de montagne caus\u00e9s par des \u00e9boulements de terrain venant de la fonte du perg\u00e9lisol.\n\nOr, ce sont ces cons\u00e9quences \"tertiaires\" qui permettent de quantifier les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts possibles et les mesures de r\u00e9silience que nous pouvons mettre en oeuvre, ou pas, avec les horizons de temps n\u00e9cessaires pour se pr\u00e9parer... ou pour se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 souffrir. \n\nAvoir une bonne id\u00e9e de ces cons\u00e9quences \"tertiaires\" ne demande pas que des mod\u00e8les de climat am\u00e9lior\u00e9s : il faut mettre derri\u00e8re ces derniers des mod\u00e8les hydrologiques ou glaciologiques, des mod\u00e8les de v\u00e9g\u00e9tation, des mod\u00e8les bact\u00e9riologiques ou \u00e9cosyst\u00e9miques, des mod\u00e8les \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, bref il faut rajouter plein de couches et d'\u00e9tapes de raisonnement, et cela explique qu'il reste presque aussi difficile de savoir \u00e0 quel moment et de quelle mani\u00e8re nous vivrons l'irr\u00e9parable avec 3,4 \u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement en France en 2100 qu'avec 3,8 \u00b0C. \n\nEnfin, et pour finir de compliquer la chose, les cons\u00e9quences ne sont pas proportionnelles \u00e0 l'\u00e9l\u00e9vation de temp\u00e9rature. Pour les \u00e9pisodes caniculaires par exemple, la fr\u00e9quence d'apparition augmente bien plus vite que la temp\u00e9rature moyenne.\n\nLa principale conclusion que l'on peut tirer de cette analyse est juste que les ennuis seront globalement pour plus t\u00f4t et plus intenses plut\u00f4t que pour plus tard et plus facilement g\u00e9rables. Et il n'est que temps de s'occuper un peu plus s\u00e9rieusement de baisser les \u00e9missions d'une part, et surtout de se pr\u00e9parer au mieux \u00e0 un accroissement de la r\u00e9silience partout ou c'est possible d'autre part. 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8735012803244115222)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lemonde.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \u00ab Les entreprises r\u00e9duisent plus leurs \u00e9missions de CO\u2082 lorsque leurs dirigeants ont \u00e9t\u00e9 expos\u00e9s \u00e0 des temp\u00e9ratures trop \u00e9lev\u00e9es \u00bb by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2022/10/09/les-entreprises-reduisent-plus-leurs-emissions-de-co-lorsque-leurs-dirigeants-ont-ete-exposes-a-des-temperatures-trop-elevees_6145040_3232.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00ab\u00a0Les entreprises r\u00e9duisent plus leurs \u00e9missions de CO\u2082 lorsque leurs dirigeants ont \u00e9t\u00e9 expos\u00e9s \u00e0 des temp\u00e9ratures trop \u00e9lev\u00e9es\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6988486457652879360,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "M\u00eame dot\u00e9e d'une cervelle analytique, notre esp\u00e8ce a manifestement du mal \u00e0 se d\u00e9partir de sa cervelle \"Saint Thomas\", c'est \u00e0 dire celle qui ne croit que ce qu'elle voit. Nous savons que nous agissons pr\u00e9f\u00e9rentiellement quand les ennuis sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 l\u00e0. Or, la d\u00e9rive climatique \u00e0 venir, c'est par d\u00e9finition des ennuis pas encore visibles.\n\nDans ce contexte, il est tentant de penser que le probl\u00e8me va commencer \u00e0 r\u00e9ellement nous motiver quand il sera effectivement sous notre nez. C'est ce que semble indiquer une analyse statistique effectu\u00e9e par deux chercheurs d'\u00e9coles de commerce, qui publient un papier expliquant que les dirigeants d'entreprise plus expos\u00e9s \u00e0 des vagues de chaleur sont ensuite plus d\u00e9sireux de s'attaquer \u00e0 la question climatique.\n\nCette conclusion est coh\u00e9rente avec ma modeste exp\u00e9rience de consultant. Parmi les motifs issus du \"v\u00e9cu personnel\" qui peuvent pousser cette population \u00e0 l'action, j'ai par exemple vu :\n- le dommage caus\u00e9 par des temp\u00e9ratures \u00e9lev\u00e9es ou la s\u00e9cheresse \u00e0 une parcelle de for\u00eat (voire juste \u00e0 un jardin) d\u00e9tenue par le dirigeant\n- la disparition progressive d'un glacier de montagne (car une partie des dirigeants se balade en montagne !)\n- la d\u00e9gradation d'une zone de plong\u00e9e...\n- et, dans une cat\u00e9gorie qui n'est pas celle des dommages \u00e0 la nature, mais celle de l'exp\u00e9rience personnelle, on va aussi trouver la dissension avec des enfants qui d\u00e9sapprouvent l'inaction des parents.\n\nOn pourrait se dire que c'est une bonne nouvelle : le climat commence \u00e0 se d\u00e9r\u00e9gler, les dirigeants le constatent, ils passent \u00e0 l'action, et hop on va r\u00e9gler le probl\u00e8me.\n\nSauf que dans cette logique l\u00e0 nous sommes un peu trop proches du fumeur qui d\u00e9cide d'arr\u00eater le jour o\u00f9 il a un cancer de la gorge. En effet, en mati\u00e8re de climat, le ma\u00eetre mot est l'inertie. Au moment o\u00f9 nous commencerons \u00e0 agir fortement cela ne va pas rendre les \u00e9missions nulles, mais juste les faire baisser (ou augmenter moins vite). \n\nOr, tant que les \u00e9missions ne sont pas nulles, la concentration en CO2 augmente, et \u00e0 la suite la temp\u00e9rature. Il faudra compl\u00e8tement arr\u00eater les \u00e9missions pour que la temp\u00e9rature se stabilise. Et m\u00eame \u00e0 ce moment l\u00e0, les calottes polaires vont continuer \u00e0 r\u00e9agir pendant des mill\u00e9naires, l'oc\u00e9an va continuer \u00e0 monter pendant la m\u00eame dur\u00e9e, les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes vont mettre des d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 des mill\u00e9naires \u00e0 se transformer (souvent pour moins bien) apr\u00e8s stabilisation du climat, etc. \n\nUne fois que les ennuis s\u00e9rieux d\u00e9marrent donc, et sauf arr\u00eat imm\u00e9diat des \u00e9missions humaines (ce qui demanderait une pand\u00e9mie pire que la peste ou une chute de com\u00e8te), la seule certitude est alors que les ennuis vont continuer d'augmenter. Plus nous voudrons faire confiance \u00e0 nos sens, plus nous prendrons de risques, paradoxalement. \n\nCette inertie plaide aussi pour que nous nous occupions de r\u00e9silience en m\u00eame temps que de baisse des \u00e9missions. Cela remettrait au gout du jour ce vieux proverbe : mieux vaut pr\u00e9venir que gu\u00e9rir." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6988486457652879360,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6988486458462330881,urn:li:activity:6988486458462330881,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 70, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6988486458462330881,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6988486458462330881,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8617808053719168498)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "youtube.com" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open video: \u00c9cologie : \"Un Fran\u00e7ais vit comme s'il avait 600 esclaves \u00e0 sa disposition\" (Jean-Marc Jancovici) on youtube.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyZA2YN2wIk" }, "description": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Du lundi au vendredi, Philippe Vandel fait le point sur un sujet de l'actualit\u00e9 m\u00e9dia avec un invit\u00e9. Aujourd'hui, Jean-Marc Jancovici, ing\u00e9nieur, pour parler d'\u00e9cologie dans les m\u00e9dias. ABONNEZ-VOUS pour plus de vid\u00e9os : http://bit.ly/radioE1 LE..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "\u00c9cologie : \"Un Fran\u00e7ais vit comme s'il avait 600 esclaves \u00e0 sa disposition\" (Jean-Marc Jancovici)" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6988149056606715904,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ce devait \u00eatre un exercice rigolo : \u00eatre invit\u00e9 sur un media pour dire du mal des media :). En fait cela s'est transform\u00e9 en interview assez classique, et il a \u00e9t\u00e9 beaucoup question du \"Monde sans Fin\". \n\nA un moment il y a quand eu un passage sur... mes passages media justement. Vandel m'a demand\u00e9 comment je faisais pour garder la t\u00eate froide, et sur le coup je n'ai pas \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s prolixe. Mais je vais profiter de ce post pour faire quelques compl\u00e9ments.\n\nQuand j'ai fait mes d\u00e9buts dans la mouvance associative environnementale, \u00e0 la Fondation qui s'appelait alors Nicolas Hulot (d\u00e9sormais pour la Nature et l'Homme), un ancien journaliste (pas Hulot) avait dit que la presse appliquait la r\u00e8gle des 3L :\n- d'abord elle l\u00e8che (comprendre elle vous porte aux nues)\n- ensuite elle l\u00e2che (donc elle est moins supportive parce qu'elle a trouv\u00e9 ailleurs des sujets qui sont plus motivants pour elle)\n- enfin elle lynche (ce qui est une fa\u00e7on de vous remettre en selle... mais sur des bases diff\u00e9rentes !)\n\nJ'en ai gard\u00e9 l'enseignement qu'il ne faut jamais avoir une situation pour laquelle la notori\u00e9t\u00e9 m\u00e9diatique positive soit indispensable. C'est une des raisons pour lesquelles je n'ai pas envie de faire de politique, soit dit en passant : dans ce r\u00f4le l\u00e0 il est difficile de construire si la presse passe son temps \u00e0 vous allumer (\u00e0 tort ou \u00e0 raison).\n\nDu coup je t\u00e2che de rester \"\u00e0 prudente distance\" du monde m\u00e9diatique :\n- je ne donne jamais la priorit\u00e9 \u00e0 la presse par rapport \u00e0 un RV \"ordinaire\" qui serait d\u00e9j\u00e0 pris (je dois refuser n'importe quoi entre 7 et 9 sollicitations sur 10)\n- je ne prends pas n'importe quel type d'exercice ou n'importe quel th\u00e8me juste parce que l'on va me tendre un micro\n- je sais tr\u00e8s bien que ce qui fait la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 d'un individu au long cours c'est de piocher ses dossiers techniques, pas d'avoir des punchlines (ca c'est du bonus quand on y arrive)\n- les r\u00e9seaux sociaux ont un peu chang\u00e9 la donne puisqu'un individu peut devenir son propre media (pour le meilleur ou pour le pire !)\n- je donne la priorit\u00e9 \u00e0 ce que je pense par rapport \u00e0 ce qui peut plaire \u00e0 un media. Du coup quand on vient me chercher je n'ai pas besoin d'adapter mon discours ni de pr\u00e9parer quelque chose de particulier (par exemple j'enregistre mes chroniques sur RTL sans avoir \u00e9crit de texte, et sans m\u00eame savoir de quoi je vais parler june demi-heure avant des fois !)\n- je demande syst\u00e9matiquement \u00e0 me relire pour les interview et refuse ces derni\u00e8res si ce n'est pas possible\n- enfin quand un organe de presse me fait un coup tordu une fois je refuse les sollicitations \u00e0 suivre (parce que pers\u00e9v\u00e9rer est diabolique !)\n\nJe suppose qu'une partie de tout cela est facile \u00e0 faire pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment parce que je n'ai aucune ambition politique au sens ordinaire du terme. Mais ca ne me coute pas !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6988149056606715904,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6988149057248448512,urn:li:activity:6988149057248448512,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 82, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6988149057248448512,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6988149057248448512,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6988149057248448512", "threadId": 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8669792230290266611)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lemonde.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L\u2019agriculture chinoise au d\u00e9fi du r\u00e9chauffement climatique by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2022/10/17/l-agriculture-chinoise-au-defi-du-rechauffement-climatique_6146074_3244.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L\u2019agriculture chinoise au d\u00e9fi du r\u00e9chauffement climatique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6988046868463132673,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Comme l'Europe du Sud, les USA ou une partie de l'Am\u00e9rique du Sud, la Chine fait partie des endroits o\u00f9 il est pr\u00e9vu que les sols s'ass\u00e8chent en r\u00e9ponse au r\u00e9chauffement climatique. Il est aussi pr\u00e9vu, comme partout, que les vagues de chaleur s'intensifient. \n\nCe pays a v\u00e9cu un avant-gout de l'ensemble l'\u00e9t\u00e9 dernier, avec un d\u00e9ficit de pr\u00e9cipitation et des temp\u00e9ratures record qui ne sont malheureusement que le d\u00e9but d'un \"nouveau normal\" qui sera bien plus d\u00e9sagr\u00e9able que cela \u00e0 l'avenir.\n\nEn r\u00e9ponse, l'agriculture souffre. Jusque l\u00e0, rien de nouveau, m\u00eame si ce n'est pas plaisant. L\u00e0 o\u00f9 cela devient int\u00e9ressant, enfin si l'on peut dire, c'est dans les \u00e9l\u00e9ments contenus dans cet article du Monde qui \u00e9voque ce qui vient de se passer.\n\nLe papier rapporte les propos d'un diplomate qui dit (modulo l'adaptation de ses propos par le journaliste) : \"A court terme, il n\u2019y a pas de risque de p\u00e9nurie, car les Chinois ont des stocks qui correspondent \u00e0 environ un an de consommation, mais nous allons sans doute assister \u00e0 la fois \u00e0 une augmentation des importations et \u00e0 un productivisme agricole accru\". \n\nCette pr\u00e9sentation me semble minorer le danger. D'une part, avec une \u00e9volution de long terme, le probl\u00e8me ne se limite \u00e9videmment pas \u00e0 l'ann\u00e9e prochaine. Ensuite, pour augmenter les importations, il faut plus de zones exportatrices, or avec les \"accidents climatiques\" la tendance va plut\u00f4t \u00eatre \u00e0 l'inverse.\n\nIl faut aussi pour cela disposer de moyens de transport \u00e0 longue distance, donc de p\u00e9trole. P\u00e9trole (et gaz) qui est aussi indispensable pour \"accro\u00eetre le productivisme\". \n\nLe propos rapport\u00e9 me semble donc \u00eatre typique du point de vue qui postule que nous allons r\u00e9soudre les probl\u00e8mes du monde fini (le r\u00e9chauffement climatique et la d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion p\u00e9troli\u00e8re) avec des moyens infinis. Certes l'article se conclut par \"Une fa\u00e7on de reconna\u00eetre que, aujourd\u2019hui, la Chine n\u2019a pas de solutions pour r\u00e9soudre l\u2019ensemble des probl\u00e8mes auxquels son agriculture fait face\". \n\nIl n'emp\u00eache : nous manquons de r\u00e9flexes pour comprendre que nous allons devoir progressivement g\u00e9rer plus d'ennuis avec moins de moyens. Que les conditions locales vont souvent devenir plus d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ables alors m\u00eame que la mondialisation et les \u00e9changes vont devenir plus difficiles.\n\nEvidemment, tout cela ne va pas se produire en un an. En fait, la conjoncture actuelle est assez illustrative de la mani\u00e8re dont cela va se produire : par conjonction de \"crises\", dont certaines arriveront avec peu de pr\u00e9avis, et qui deviendront de plus en plus profondes au fil du temps. Augmenter la r\u00e9silience quand tout va mal se paiera d'une diminution de la performance quand tout va bien.\n\nLa Chine est pourtant en train de compter sur plus de performance avec la consommation de viande par personne qui augmente, puisqu'il faut plus de production v\u00e9g\u00e9tale en pareil cas. Un domaine de plus o\u00f9 ce pays, comme le n\u00f4tre, est pris dans ses contradictions !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6988046868463132673,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6988046869218086912,urn:li:activity:6988046869218086912,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 38, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6988046869218086912,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6988046869218086912,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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Raymond Barre critique s\u00e9v\u00e8rement le rapport du Club de Rome by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/archives/article/1972/06/15/m-raymond-barre-critique-severement-le-rapport-du-club-de-rome_2391103_1819218.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "M. Raymond Barre critique s\u00e9v\u00e8rement le rapport du Club de Rome" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6987666543513862144,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\nIl est rest\u00e9 dans les m\u00e9moires comme Premier ministre de Giscard, et un peu comme maire de Lyon, mais \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque o\u00f9 l'article du Monde ci-dessous a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9crit, il \u00e9tait Vice-pr\u00e9sident de la Commission Europ\u00e9enne (de 1967 \u00e0 1973), en charge de l'\u00e9conomie. \n\nA ce titre, il a analys\u00e9 pour le compte de la Commission le \"Rapport du Club de Rome\", c'est \u00e0 dire le travail effectu\u00e9 par les \u00e9poux Meadows (Donella en t\u00eate, on l'oublie souvent) qui portait sur les limites \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique dans un monde fini : https://bit.ly/2HkwcIl . \n\nCar, on l'oublie aujourd'hui, mais ce travail (The Limits to Growth) avait occup\u00e9 une place importante dans les d\u00e9bats \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque, et de nombreuses personnalit\u00e9s ont \u00e9t\u00e9 amen\u00e9es \u00e0 se prononcer sur son contenu... en ayant lu le livre ou pas :). \n\nQu'a pens\u00e9 notre ex-professeur d'\u00e9conomie de l'exercice de dynamique des syst\u00e8mes propos\u00e9 par les universitaires du MIT ? Je n'ai pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 retrouver en 3 clics de souris l'analyse r\u00e9dig\u00e9e (ou endoss\u00e9e) par Raymond Barre, mais, malgr\u00e9 ma grande d\u00e9fiance pour la presse :), il est probable que l'article du Monde en donne l'esprit, \u00e0 d\u00e9faut d'en donner la lettre : \"circulez, il n'y a pas grand chose \u00e0 voir\".\n\nLa priorit\u00e9, c'est la croissance \u00e9conomique (incidemment explicitement vis\u00e9e dans le Trait\u00e9 de Lisbonne, la \"constitution\" europ\u00e9enne), et nous pourrons, en affectant judicieusement une partie de son produit, supprimer les nuisances qui y sont attach\u00e9es. En clair, la croissance verte est \u00e0 port\u00e9e de la main.\n\nPourtant, \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque, le pr\u00e9sident de la Commission, Sicco Mansholt, a \u00e9t\u00e9 convaincu par le travail des mod\u00e9lisateurs du MIT. Il a m\u00eame \u00e9crit une lettre proposant plus ou moins de faire... de la planification \u00e9cologique ! https://bit.ly/3MAV29M\n\nIl \u00e9tait alors dans les temps. Si, d\u00e8s 1972, nous avions limit\u00e9 les grandes villes (et non \u00e9tal\u00e9 et fait grossir ces derni\u00e8res), maintenu du monde \u00e0 la campagne, \u00e9vit\u00e9 de mondialiser les chaines de valeur que nous ne pouvons d\u00e9sormais plus rapatrier chez nous, \u00e9vit\u00e9 une sp\u00e9cialisation agricole excessive, etc, nous serions aujourd'hui bien mieux plac\u00e9s pour affronter les d\u00e9fis de demain.\n\nMais \"le march\u00e9\" a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus fort que lui, tout pr\u00e9sident de la Commission qu'il \u00e9tait. Et depuis, rien ou presque n'a chang\u00e9. L'immense majorit\u00e9 des \u00e9conomistes continue \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer le travail fait en 1972 comme une aimable plaisanterie qui ne r\u00e9siste pas \u00e0 une analyse un peu s\u00e9rieuse, alors que c'est l'exact inverse en pratique : ce sont les mod\u00e8les macro\u00e9conomiques qui ne r\u00e9sistent pas \u00e0 une analyse un peu s\u00e9rieuse ! Entre autres choses, dans les mod\u00e8les \u00e9conomiques la croissance n'est pas un r\u00e9sultat en sortie, c'est une hypoth\u00e8se d'entr\u00e9e (sous forme d'augmentation de la productivit\u00e9 du travail et d'augmentation de la population) qui ne d\u00e9pend que de l'envie du mod\u00e9lisateur !\n\nL'histoire enseigne que les peuples n'ont rien appris de l'histoire, disait Hegel. A voir o\u00f9 en est toujours le d\u00e9bat \u00e9conomique aujourd'hui, il a h\u00e9las raison." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6987666543513862144,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6987666544478535680,urn:li:activity:6987666544478535680,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 87, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6987666544478535680,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6987666544478535680,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 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"C'\u00e9tait il y a presque 20 ans. France 2 avait fait une \u00e9mission \u00e0 une heure de grande \u00e9coute sur le changement climatique : le Climaction. C'\u00e9tait un m\u00e9lange de documentaire, de jeu de plateau, de My CO2 avant l'heure, et de Don't Look Up pour une partie des r\u00e9actions observ\u00e9es chez les stars invit\u00e9es. \n\nHerv\u00e9 Le Treut (dans un reportage) et votre serviteur (en plateau) avaient 20 ans de moins, mais \u00e9taient d\u00e9j\u00e0 parfaitement casse bonbon avec les \"pr\u00e9dictions d'apocalypse\" (que nous avions par ailleurs consign\u00e9es ensemble dans cet ouvrage sorti une premi\u00e8re fois en 2001 avant de repara\u00eetre dans une autre collection en 2004 : https://bit.ly/3CYT3Jm ), et je me suis rassur\u00e9 (si l'on peut dire) en \u00e9coutant le commentaire que j'avais fait sur un bulletin m\u00e9t\u00e9o imagin\u00e9 pour 2093 que j'avais trouv\u00e9 \"un peu timide\". \n\nJe pouvais : l'\u00e9t\u00e9 dernier a donn\u00e9 lieu \u00e0 des temp\u00e9ratures plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es que ce qui figurait dans ce faux bulletin m\u00e9t\u00e9o pour la fin du si\u00e8cle ! Je me rappelle aussi que cette \u00e9mission avait fait moins d'audience que le film Bimboland diffus\u00e9 sur M6 le m\u00eame jour (film que je n'ai pas vu, mais avec un titre pareil on s'en souvient), et que je m'\u00e9tais dit en cons\u00e9quence que de convaincre une chaine de faire une \u00e9mission sur le changement climatique n'\u00e9tait pas suffisant : encore fallait-il que les gens regardent.\n\nQu'est-ce qui a chang\u00e9 depuis ? En bien, le sujet du climat est devenu beaucoup plus fr\u00e9quent dans les media et les discours politiques. Des lois ont \u00e9t\u00e9 vot\u00e9es (en 2005 appara\u00eet dans la loi l'objectif de diviser par 4 les \u00e9missions fran\u00e7aises entre 1990 et 2050), un objectif politique d'\u00e9l\u00e9vation maximale de la temp\u00e9rature a \u00e9t\u00e9 fix\u00e9 en 2009 \u00e0 Copenhague (pas plus de 2\u00b0C et si possible pas plus de 1,5), des obligations de publication des \u00e9missions pour les entreprises et les collectivit\u00e9s sont apparues, le sujet commence \u00e0 \u00eatre enseign\u00e9 dans le sup\u00e9rieur scientifique (encore tr\u00e8s peu dans le secondaire et tr\u00e8s peu dans le sup\u00e9rieur non scientifique), et une partie du monde \u00e9conomique commence \u00e0 int\u00e9grer le sujet dans ses r\u00e9flexions pour l'avenir.\n\nDes associations et entreprises focalis\u00e9es sur le sujet sont apparues, dont The Shift Project, qui vient de f\u00eater l'inscription du 20.000\u00e8 shifter (qui est une shifteuse non ing\u00e9nieure, le graal !).\n\nMais (car il y a toujours un mais) nous pouvons aussi consid\u00e9rer que nous avons surtout perdu du temps :\n- la situation climatique s'est fortement d\u00e9grad\u00e9e et les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires ont augment\u00e9\n- nos pratiques (\u00e9conomiques, de consommation, culturelles, plans de carri\u00e8re, etc) sont toujours \"orthogonales\" aux limites plan\u00e9taires pour l'essentiel\n - beaucoup de gens confondent \"avoir beaucoup entendu parler de la question\" avec \"avoir bien compris le probl\u00e8me\"\n- le \"n'importe quoi\" a largement disparu du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la d\u00e9finition du probl\u00e8me pour r\u00e9appara\u00eetre du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des solutions au probl\u00e8me\n\nRegarder cette archive peut aider \u00e0 avoir envie de presser le pas. 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C'est le th\u00e8me de ma chronique du samedi matin sur RTL : https://bit.ly/3CHSH8K\n\nLe graphique ci-dessous d\u00e9compose les usages de l'or noir dans notre pays (donn\u00e9es Minist\u00e8re du d\u00e9veloppement durable). \"Usage non \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\" d\u00e9signe tous les cas de figure o\u00f9 le p\u00e9trole sert de mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re et non de combustible : plastique et chimie organique (qui fournit la totalit\u00e9 des secteurs industriels actuellement), bitume, lubrifiants, cires...\n\nAu sein du transport routier les v\u00e9hicules particuliers repr\u00e9sentent \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la moiti\u00e9 (donc un quart du total), le reste allant dans les utilitaires (un quart environ), les poids lourds (environ 20%), et enfin les deux roues (quelques %).\n\nIl est assez facile de comprendre qu'une suppression durable du p\u00e9trole ne touchera donc pas que les automobilistes : cela concernera aussi la production agricole, le fret, la production de mat\u00e9riaux de synth\u00e8se, la p\u00eache, le chauffage, les avions ou encore la marine marchande...\n\nCette chronique fut l'occasion de rappeler aux auditeurs de RTL - qui n'ont pas du en entendre parler beaucoup via la r\u00e9daction de cette radio (remarque g\u00e9n\u00e9ralisable \u00e0 l'ensemble des media) - qu'apr\u00e8s le blocage des raffineries viendra le peak oil, d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 l'oeuvre depuis 2008 dans le monde pour le p\u00e9trole conventionnel, et qui le sera tr\u00e8s bient\u00f4t - si ce n'est d\u00e9j\u00e0 le cas - en incluant p\u00e9trole de schiste et sables bitumineux. \n\nPour l'Europe, et en cons\u00e9quence, l'or noir disponible a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 baisser de mani\u00e8re subie depuis 2007 (un an avant Lehman Brothers, et 2008 a un d\u00e9terminant \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique majeur), et cela va continuer.\n\nClimat ou pas, l'approvisionnement europ\u00e9en en p\u00e9trole sera de toute fa\u00e7on divis\u00e9 par 2 \u00e0 20 d'ici un peu moins de 30 ans. Il est urgent de s'organiser en cons\u00e9quence, dans un monde qui ne sera pas en croissance \u00e9conomique. Ca va \u00eatre aussi ca la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nDans les transports, le p\u00e9trole qui est le plus crucial n'est en fait pas celui qui fait avancer les voitures. Les personnes ont des jambes, une langue et une cervelle, et nous pouvons tr\u00e8s vite nous organiser avec moins de voitures, en combinant covoiturage, marche et v\u00e9lo, autocars, bus et trains, et t\u00e9l\u00e9travail. Ca ferait peut-\u00eatre grincer quelques dents, mais c'est physiquement possible.\n\nDans le domaine du fret, nous ne pouvons pas diviser par 2 ou 3 la quantit\u00e9 de camions qui circule sans diminuer tr\u00e8s vite les flux de marchandises, et donc affaiblir tr\u00e8s vite l'\u00e9conomie et l'approvisionnement des villes. 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The Shift Project en a fait un chapitre complet sur Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise : https://bit.ly/3T6FRI3" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6986980881114497024,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6986980882167259136,urn:li:activity:6986980882167259136,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 167, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6986980882167259136,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6986980882167259136,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9200065973329006638)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lemonde.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Transition \u00e9cologique : le gouvernement lance la formation de ses hauts fonctionnaires by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2022/10/12/transition-ecologique-le-gouvernement-lance-la-formation-de-ses-hauts-fonctionnaires_6145459_3244.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Transition \u00e9cologique\u00a0: le gouvernement lance la formation de ses hauts fonctionnaires" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6986592248259837952,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "On ne peut bien g\u00e9rer qu'un probl\u00e8me qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 correctement d\u00e9crit. C'\u00e9tait la trame de \"Dormez Tranquilles jusqu'en 2100 : https://bit.ly/3rYb18x ), qui partait justement d'un certain nombre de contresens fr\u00e9quents qui placent la r\u00e9flexion pour l'action dans un mauvais cadre.\n\nC'est donc une excellente nouvelle que le gouvernement ait d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de lancer un programme de formation pour ses hauts fonctionnaires. M\u00eame si ce sont les d\u00e9put\u00e9s qui votent les lois, dans notre pays l'administration centrale a \u00e9norm\u00e9ment de pouvoir. \n\nD'abord elle r\u00e9dige l'essentiel des projets de loi, sachant que par ailleurs c'est le gouvernement qui d\u00e9termine l'essentiel de l'agenda du Parlement. Elle r\u00e9dige \u00e9galement les d\u00e9crets d'application, et, le Diable \u00e9tant dans les d\u00e9tails, ces d\u00e9crets peuvent changer du tout au tout la mani\u00e8re dont s'applique une intention. \n\nCeci \u00e9tant dit, pour la formation aussi le Diable est dans les d\u00e9tails. Quel commentaire porter sur ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9voil\u00e9 hier ?\n\n-> l'intention initiale porte sur \"climat+biodiversit\u00e9+ressources\". Dans le programme il y a bien climat (Fresque + 2 tonnes) mais rien sur la biodiversit\u00e9 ni sur les ressources. \n\n-> il n'y a en particulier rien de pr\u00e9vu sur le r\u00f4le de l'\u00e9nergie - donc des machines - dans la structuration du monde moderne (occupation du territoire, structuration de l'emploi, pouvoir d'achat, temps de travail, mondialisation, etc), amplement d\u00e9taill\u00e9 dans Le Monde sans Fin ou dans cette conf\u00e9rence de rentr\u00e9e \u00e0 Sciences Po : https://lnkd.in/d7HbYKe . Or, tant que cet aspect n'est pas explicit\u00e9, on essaiera - et on \u00e9chouera en faisant monter les populismes au passage - de faire de la croissance verte (croissance verte qui est dans les sc\u00e9narios d'\u00e9mission du GIEC, m\u00eame le 1.5 \u00b0C, dans les sc\u00e9narios 2050 de l'Ademe ou dans le 2\u00b0C de l'AIE, bref partout). Incidemment il n'y a personne dans le comit\u00e9 des experts qui porte cette th\u00e9matique, ni celle sur les ressources non \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques (m\u00e9taux notamment)\n\n-> une formation doit donner une capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'action. La Fresque est un formidable outil de sensibilisation, et 2 tonnes rel\u00e8ve aussi de cette cat\u00e9gorie (sensibilisation). Mais pour parler de formation il faut par exemple que le haut fonctionnaire sache comment \u00e9valuer l'impact carbone d'un d\u00e9cret ou d'un programme industriel. Il faudra donc des modules sectoriels op\u00e9rationnels (b\u00e2timent, transport, industrie\u2026) en compl\u00e9ment, et le dispositif de gouvernance annonc\u00e9 ne dit rien sur la question (ce n'est pas un jugement sur la qualit\u00e9 des individus).\n\n-> Le mode de validation des connaissances n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9. Pour moi il faut les \"form\u00e9s\" soient par exemple capable de r\u00e9pondre aux questions figurant \u00e0 la fin de https://bit.ly/3MtCRD2 et il faut pouvoir le v\u00e9rifier.\n\nUn premier pas donc. Il en faut toujours un ; f\u00e9licitons nous en. Mais ce n'est que le premier et il est tout aussi urgent de s'occuper des suivants !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6986592248259837952,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6986592249119678464,urn:li:activity:6986592249119678464,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 78, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6986592249119678464,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6986592249119678464,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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mati\u00e8re \u00e9tant assez technique, il s'agira le plus souvent de vulgariser des notions ou techniques propres \u00e0 notre secteur : qu'est-ce que la neutralit\u00e9 carbone ? Que signifie la r\u00e9silience pour une entreprise ? A quoi ressemble le cadre r\u00e9glementaire de reporting pour les entreprises ? Etc.\n\nLe public vis\u00e9 ne se limite pas \u00e0 nos clients : nous acceptons volontiers les personnes qui le deviendront plus tard :). Plus s\u00e9rieusement, comme toute la connaissance - m\u00e9thodes, analyses, articles - que produit Carbone 4, ces podcasts sont en acc\u00e8s libre. Ils peuvent \u00e9videmment int\u00e9resser des \u00e9tudiant(e)s, des enseignant(e)s, des fonctionnaires, des \u00e9lus, et j'en passe.\n\nNous esp\u00e9rons que vous aurez du plaisir et de l'int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 les consulter. Si vous souhaitez faire un retour, le mieux est de passer par la page contact du site Carbone 4. 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6986038320166277120,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "100 milliards d'euros : voil\u00e0 ce que l'Etat va devoir d\u00e9penser pour le bouclier tarifaire en 3 ans. Avec 100 milliards, qu'aurions nous pu faire pour nous passer un peu ou beaucoup de combustibles fossiles ?\n\n-> payer environ 10 millions de pompes \u00e0 chaleur air-eau, ou la moiti\u00e9 en g\u00e9othermie. Il y a en France environ 4 millions de logements chauff\u00e9s au fioul et environ 12 millions de logements chauff\u00e9s au gaz (https://bit.ly/3eoGe1l ). Nous aurions donc pu supprimer 15% du p\u00e9trole et 30% du gaz.\n\n-> r\u00e9aliser environ 1 million de km de pistes cyclables (il y a un million de km de routes en France)\n\n-> construire 6000 km de LGV ou 100.000 km de voies \"normales\" en rase campagne. Il y a actuellement 30.000 km de voies ferr\u00e9es en France\n\n- construire 8 EPR (pas \u00e0 20 milliards pi\u00e8ce ; je suppose un effet d'apprentissage :) ).\n\nEt j'en passe.\n\nMais voil\u00e0... depuis 20 ans nous avons :\n- mis toute notre \u00e9nergie dans la cr\u00e9ation d'un \"march\u00e9 de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9\" dont nous commen\u00e7ons seulement \u00e0 voir les cons\u00e9quences d\u00e9l\u00e9t\u00e8res (car ce n'est pas fini)\n- c\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 la d\u00e9magogie en mettant les milliards dans l'affaiblissement du parc nucl\u00e9aire plut\u00f4t que dans une \u00e9lectrification qui nous aurait prot\u00e9g\u00e9s contre la d\u00e9pendance au gaz (60% du gaz sert au chauffage en France)\n- consid\u00e9r\u00e9 le v\u00e9lo comme un gadget\n- rien fait pour supprimer le fioul dans le chauffage\n- continu\u00e9 \u00e0 financer massivement de la voirie pour voitures et sous investi dans le train\n- continu\u00e9 \u00e0 mondialiser l'\u00e9conomie, et donc \u00e0 la rendre la plus d\u00e9pendante possible d'approvisionnements externes tout en nous privant de la possibilit\u00e9 de faire des plans industriels domestiques ou europ\u00e9ens\n- envoy\u00e9 les ing\u00e9nieurs faire des algorithmes de finance de march\u00e9 et des mondes num\u00e9riques virtuels au lieu de les envoyer pr\u00e9parer les infrastructures adapt\u00e9es \u00e0 des temps plus sobres\n- etc.\n\nEt quand la bise arrive, on br\u00fbles les meubles pour se chauffer tant que ca passe, mais ca ne va pas passer tr\u00e8s longtemps. Si les prix du gaz ne redescendent pas en 2023 (et pourquoi redescendraient-ils ? Poutine va-t-il rouvrir le robinet ?) nous allons \u00e0 nouveau consacrer les milliards \u00e0 traiter les sympt\u00f4mes au lieu de traiter la cause... et \u00e0 la fin on \"s'effondre\".\n\nLa seule mani\u00e8re d'en sortir est d'une part de supprimer le m\u00e9canisme de march\u00e9 europ\u00e9en sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (ce qui est un peu plus urgent que de s'occuper des retraites), et d'autre part de planifier une d\u00e9carbonation \"physique\" massive. Ca ira n\u00e9cessairement avec moins des libert\u00e9s individuelles actuelles, mais ca nous am\u00e8nera plus de \"libert\u00e9 collective\", \u00e0 savoir un pays qui peut encore \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s piloter son destin.\n\nEt plus on attend, plus la fen\u00eatre d'opportunit\u00e9 se referme. Accessoirement je ne sais pas si le programme de formation des hauts fonctionnaires qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9 int\u00e8gre la d\u00e9pendance de l'\u00e9conomie \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie. Si non, on rate l'essentiel et ils essaieront de faire de la croissance verte." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6986038320166277120,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6986038321063833601,urn:li:activity:6986038321063833601,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 484, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6986038321063833601,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6986038321063833601,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ici on propose de produire de l'\u00e9nergie solaire depuis l'espace : https://bit.ly/3RPycfx. L\u00e0, de faire pousser des plantes sur la lune. Encore ailleurs, d'aller chercher sur les ast\u00e9ro\u00efdes les m\u00e9taux qui ne se trouveront plus dans nos mines \u00e9puis\u00e9es (selon l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie, les mines de cuivre actuellement en production ou en projet passeront leur pic de production dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir : https://bit.ly/3CmpYGk ).\n\nSi nous transformons notre \"bonne vieille terre\" en espace hostile et appauvri, pourrons nous trouver le salut au-del\u00e0 de la stratosph\u00e8re ? Avant de reprendre joyeusement les communiqu\u00e9s de presse qui pourraient le laisser penser, je propose aux media le petit calcul suivant.\n\nLa mission Apollo, qui a envoy\u00e9 quelques fus\u00e9es sur la Lune, en a ramen\u00e9 environ 400 kg de roches (https://lnkd.in/emcFGgte ) pour un cout d'environ 250 milliards de dollars actuels (https://bit.ly/3ejDbaW ). Cela met donc la tonne ramen\u00e9e de l'espace \u00e0 plus de 500 milliards de dollars, contre quelques centaines de dollars pour une tonne de minerai extraite sur terre. M\u00eame si l'argent n'est qu'une convention, on comprend facilement que la d\u00e9pense \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique associ\u00e9e \u00e0 ce \"minage de l'espace\" sera des millions de fois sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 ce qu'elle sera sur terre...\n\nDans le m\u00eame ordre d'id\u00e9es, la station solaire en orbite aurait la puissance d'un r\u00e9acteur nucl\u00e9aire pour un cout qui sera fatalement bien plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, et il va se passer du temps avant que la Lune nous fournisse les 2 milliards de tonnes de r\u00e9coltes que repr\u00e9sentent bl\u00e9, ma\u00efs, soja et riz, sans parler du bois, des fibres textiles, des l\u00e9gumes et des poulets.\n\nFaire le buzz, c'est bien. Ne pas pousser indirectement (car c'est ca l'effet) des gouvernements et des investisseurs qui ignorent trop souvent la r\u00e8gle de trois \u00e0 confondre un conte de f\u00e9es avec une vraie solution, ca serait mieux. Peut-on esp\u00e9rer de la presse que ce genre d'information soit syst\u00e9matiquement accompagn\u00e9e d'un calcul d'ordre de grandeur ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6985496998669860865,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6985496999382892544,urn:li:activity:6985496999382892544,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 195, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6985496999382892544,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6985496999382892544,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8898992385489831427)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: La d\u00e9cision de l'Opep+ de baisser sa production fait planer de nouvelles menaces sur les march\u00e9s by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/finance-marches/marches-financiers/petrole-les-pays-de-lopep-decident-de-reduire-drastiquement-leur-production-1866611" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La d\u00e9cision de l'Opep+ de baisser sa production fait planer de nouvelles menaces sur les march\u00e9s" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6985159265250373632,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La production mensuelle de p\u00e9trole est pass\u00e9e par un maximum historique d'un peu plus de 84 millions de barils par jour en novembre 2018 (https://bit.ly/3MkWRro ). Alors qu'en juin dernier elle \u00e9tait de 79 millions de barils par jour seulement, les pays de \"l'OPEP +\" (donc l'OPEP et la Russie) ont n\u00e9anmoins d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de baisser leur production (qui ne concerne pas l'ensemble du monde mais une large partie) de 2 millions de barils par jour (ce qui est \u00e9norme). \n\nQuestion \u00e0 1 million de barils : o\u00f9 est la poule et o\u00f9 est l'oeuf ? Dit autrement, ce cartel de producteurs d\u00e9cide de baisser parce que la demande n'est pas l\u00e0, ou bien il habille d'une couleur volontaire une baisse subie qui est de toute fa\u00e7on inscrite dans la g\u00e9ologie ?\n\nLa question se pose notamment pour la Russie : \u00e0 cause de la guerre en Ukraine, les op\u00e9rateurs \u00e9trangers sont partis, et avec eux des technologies permettant une meilleure r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration du p\u00e9trole. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Rystad Energy consid\u00e8re ainsi que la Russie va voir sa production baisser fatalement de plusieurs millions de barils par jour (elle \u00e9tait \u00e0 10) \u00e0 cause de ces d\u00e9parts. \n\nComme par ailleurs la Russie \u00e9tait \u00e0 son pic de production avant le d\u00e9clenchement de la guerre, cette baisse ne sera pas r\u00e9cup\u00e9rable (toujours selon Rystad). Et par ailleurs avant m\u00eame cette annonce l'OPEP + n'avait pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 mettre en oeuvre les augmentations de production d\u00e9cid\u00e9es (la production physique restait en dessous).\n\nIl est donc possible que nous d\u00e9marrions une p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 les annonces de l'OPEP plus seront plus une r\u00e9action \u00e0 l'impossibilit\u00e9 physique de produire qu'une adaptation \u00e0 une demande en baisse...\n\nPour le moment c'est une gr\u00e8ve dans les raffineries qui engendre une difficult\u00e9 d'approvisionnement en carburants dans le pays (https://bit.ly/3Cm29hR ). Mais cet \u00e9pisode doit nous faire toucher du doigt ce qui se passera de mani\u00e8re structurelle bien avant que je ne passe de vie \u00e0 tr\u00e9pas. Esp\u00e9rons qu'il ait au moins cette vertu !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6985159265250373632,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6985159266068242432,urn:li:activity:6985159266068242432,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 51, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6985159266068242432,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6985159266068242432,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6985159266068242432", 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3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Fesse de Bouc a chang\u00e9 de nom pour d\u00e9sormais s'appeler Meta. A nous la \"r\u00e9alit\u00e9 immersive\" et les \"mondes virtuels\" ! Et \u00e0 Meta le produit (\u00e9conomique) de notre envie de nous \u00e9vader du monde tel qu'il est pour nous en inventer un bien mieux, parce qu'il faudra au passage acqu\u00e9rir quelques babioles (masque de r\u00e9alit\u00e9 virtuelle, par exemple) disponibles contre esp\u00e8ces sonnantes et tr\u00e9buchantes : https://www.meta.com/fr/\n\nAlors que le digital repr\u00e9sente d\u00e9j\u00e0 4% \u00e0 5% de l'empreinte carbone mondiale, faut-il consacrer des ressources suppl\u00e9mentaires \u00e0 pouvoir acheter un terrain virtuel pour y construire un h\u00f4tel virtuel et y utiliser du Monsieur Propre virtuel ? (toutes ces choses existent d\u00e9j\u00e0...).\n\nUn ordinateur demande 40 \u00e0 50 \u00e9l\u00e9ments diff\u00e9rents (comme une \u00e9olienne incidemment). Ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments sont en quantit\u00e9 finie. Le digital consomme de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Cette derni\u00e8re est fossile \u00e0 60%. Plus on fera de metaverse et plus on mettra de CO2 dans l'air d'une part, et plus on perdra d\u00e9finitivement de m\u00e9taux et d'autres \u00e9l\u00e9ments pour payer nos imp\u00f4ts, nous inscrire \u00e0 l'\u00e9cole ou appeler les pompiers. \n\nEn effet, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 moderne a tout organis\u00e9 autour du digital, c'est \u00e0 dire autour de la disponibilit\u00e9 en silicium, indium, cuivre, \u00e9tain, de or, aluminium, antimoine, arsenic, baryum, b\u00e9ryllium, cadmium, chrome, cobalt, gallium, plomb, mangan\u00e8se, mercure, palladium, platine, s\u00e9l\u00e9nium, zinc...\n\nSi demain matin nous devions nous retrouver priv\u00e9s de composants \u00e9lectroniques de mani\u00e8re massive, parce que les mat\u00e9riaux qui les permettent font d\u00e9faut, assez vite nous n'aurions plus de compte en banque, plus de communications, plus de gestion des trafics de v\u00e9hicules, plus d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, plus d'admission post bac (!), plus de vente en ligne et... plus d'imp\u00f4ts. \n\nQuestion donc : est-ce la voie de la raison que de piocher encore plus vite dans le stock r\u00e9siduel juste pour pouvoir se distraire, alors que ce n'est quand m\u00eame pas tr\u00e8s difficile de trouver d'autres moyens de le faire ? 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Why is that? Isabelle Boemeke, the world's first nuclear energy influencer and creator of the social media persona Isodope, deftly debunks..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Isabelle Boemeke: Nuclear power is our best hope to ditch fossil fuels" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6983869183713239040,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Elle porte un pr\u00e9nom fran\u00e7ais et un nom de famille belge, mais elle est br\u00e9silienne et parle anglais.Elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 mannequin et est devenue influenceuse. Avec une telle introduction nous aurons tous le r\u00e9flexe de nous dire qu'il s'agit d'un clone international de Kardashian, qui vit de la promotion de cosm\u00e9tiques et paires de chaussures.\n\nSauf que pas du tout : les tutos d'Isabelle Boemeke font la promotion... de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire. Dans ce TedX r\u00e9cent, elle \u00e9voque son respect pour les scientifiques, sa d\u00e9marche pour comprendre, et rejoint (ou pr\u00e9c\u00e8de !) Vinz Kant\u00e9 dans la cat\u00e9gorie des personnes qui se sont fait un nom m\u00e9diatique sur la base d'activit\u00e9s \"l\u00e9g\u00e8res\" (la mode par exemple) et qui s'impliquent ensuite dans des causes plus difficiles.\n\nEn plus, cette influenceuse est partie avec une tr\u00e8s mauvaise opinion du nucl\u00e9aire. Mais elle a fait l'effort de rechercher par elle m\u00eame sans s'en tenir \u00e0 l'information m\u00e9diatique. En cela elle rejoint aussi un George Monbiot qui a fait un \"coming out\" dans le Guardian (o\u00f9 il chronique) en expliquant qu'il avait \u00e9t\u00e9 choqu\u00e9 par les choses fausses ou exag\u00e9r\u00e9es que le monde militant antinucl\u00e9aire avait diffus\u00e9es dans l'espace public.\n\nSachant qu'en France les personnes qui ont le plus d'a-priori contre le nucl\u00e9aire sont les femmes et les jeunes, c'est \u00e9videmment int\u00e9ressant qu'il existe au moins une femme jeune pour proposer un point de vue favorable.\n\nOn peut bien sur \u00eatre oppos\u00e9 au nucl\u00e9aire. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8679946917402101029)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "energypost.eu \u2022 9 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Veracity of corporate net-zero pledges and advertising is being challenged in court - Energy Post by energypost.eu", "actionTarget": "https://energypost.eu/veracity-of-corporate-net-zero-pledges-and-advertising-is-being-challenged-in-court/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Veracity of corporate net-zero pledges and advertising is being challenged in court - Energy Post" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6983690391220822016,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Toutes celles et tous ceux qui utilisent Google peuvent facilement le constater sur la page d'accueil : ce moteur de recherche (et du coup la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui va avec) se revendique \"neutre en carbone depuis 2007\". Un premier niveau de questionnement pourrait \u00eatre de se demander comment une entreprise dont le m\u00e9tier est de pousser \u00e0 la consommation (Google gagne sa vie en vendant du r\u00e9f\u00e9rencement publicitaire) peut \u00eatre compatible avec un monde o\u00f9 les \u00e9missions doivent baisser de 5% par an.\n\nMais m\u00eame si c'\u00e9tait le cas (et ca ne l'est pas) on peut se poser la question de savoir si une entreprise peut \u00eatre \"neutre dans son coin\" ou simplement \"compatible avec un objectif de neutralit\u00e9 plan\u00e9taire\".\n\nA Carbone 4 la r\u00e9ponse est tr\u00e8s claire : seule la 2\u00e8 option est scientifiquement fond\u00e9e (https://lnkd.in/eZaWan8r ). Et, \u00e0 Carbone 4, nous avons pour ligne, depuis notre cr\u00e9ation, de d\u00e9velopper des m\u00e9thodes (en libre acc\u00e8s de fa\u00e7on syst\u00e9matique ; c'est une r\u00e8gle) qui partent de questions pos\u00e9es par le dossier scientifique et non d'une volont\u00e9 d'\u00eatre rassur\u00e9s de nos clients. \n\nDit autrement nous leur proposons des approches avant tout bas\u00e9es sur l'\u00e9nonc\u00e9 scientifique du probl\u00e8me et non avant tout bas\u00e9es sur l'envie que les \"parties prenantes\" les laissent tranquilles, quelle que soit la pertinence du raisonnement suivi.\n\nSur la question de la neutralit\u00e9, \u00e0 chaque fois que des acteurs tiers prennent position d'une mani\u00e8re convergente avec nos vues, nous sommes donc contents (quelle surprise !). Nous avons donc accueilli avec plaisir l'avis de l'Ademe indiquant tr\u00e8s clairement pourquoi une entreprise ne pouvait pas \u00eatre neutre (https://bit.ly/3RJv4Sq ), ainsi que le projet de loi (en France) qui disait la m\u00eame chose (avant que ce projet de loi ne soit caviard\u00e9 par des gens \u00e0 qui cela d\u00e9plaisait, avec pour r\u00e9sultat la possibilit\u00e9 de dire quand m\u00eame qu'un produit ou service est neutre en respectant des conditions de forme qui n'ont pas de pertinence en l'esp\u00e8ce).\n\nPour la m\u00eame raison, et parce que les entreprises n'innovent que sous la contrainte, ce n'est pas une mauvaise chose que les revendications de neutralit\u00e9 de certaines entreprises se terminent devant les tribunaux. Le site Energy Post recense quelques cas de proc\u00e8s de par le monde qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 intent\u00e9s par des ONG contre des grandes entreprises pour des affirmations qui leur semblent \"un peu fortes de caf\u00e9\". Ces proc\u00e8s sont \"pas de chance\" pour les entreprises concern\u00e9es, parce que ces derni\u00e8res ne sont qu'un tout petit \u00e9chantillon de celles qui affirment \u00e0 tort \u00eatre d\u00e9j\u00e0 en r\u00e8gle avec la contrainte climatique.\n\nEvidemment, l'id\u00e9al serait que ces proc\u00e8s n'aient pas lieu d'\u00eatre, parce que les pays et instances de r\u00e9gulation feraient d\u00e9j\u00e0 leur job. Mais en attendant, ces petites banderilles (pas m\u00e9chantes au regard d'un boycott ou une interdiction d'exercer) plant\u00e9es par les ONG ne peuvent pas faire de mal." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6983690391220822016,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6983690392068063232,urn:li:activity:6983690392068063232,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 36, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6983690392068063232,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6983690392068063232,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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\u00e9nergie climat (et d'autres). Les territoires aussi. Dans tous les territoires, ville ou campagne, mer ou montagne, l\u2019organisation actuelle d\u00e9pend au premier chef des hydrocarbures\u00a0: les camions \u2013 et souvent avant eux les bateaux - acheminent nourriture, v\u00eatements, pi\u00e8ces de rechange pour les r\u00e9seaux d\u2019eau, et un milliard d\u2019autres choses\u00a0; ils \u00e9vacuent la production des champs et usines\u00a0; voitures et avions am\u00e8nent les touristes sur lesquels reposent presque 10% des emplois du pays\u00a0; notre r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique europ\u00e9en ne fonctionne plus sans centrales \u00e0 gaz et tout territoire d\u00e9pend de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9\u2026\n\u00a0\nL\u2019avenir de notre pays va nous confronter \u00e0 deux \u00e9volutions inexorables\u00a0: la baisse \u2013 d\u00e9j\u00e0 enclench\u00e9e par \u00e9puisement g\u00e9ologique \u2013 de l\u2019approvisionnement en p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon, et l\u2019intensification d\u2019une d\u00e9rive climatique caus\u00e9e par l\u2019ensemble des \u00e9missions mondiales (et pas juste les \u00e9missions fran\u00e7aises).\n\u00a0\nEn m\u00eame temps que tous les flux sur lesquels repose notre organisation actuelle vont se contracter, l\u2019\u00e9volution climatique va devenir plus adverse. Une premi\u00e8re publication du Shift Project (https://lnkd.in/dfWN5cBP ) avait propos\u00e9 un certain nombre de propositions que tout ex\u00e9cutif local devrait avoir \u00e0 c\u0153ur de mettre en \u0153uvre pour pr\u00e9parer au mieux son territoire contre l\u2019adversit\u00e9 croissante, et saisir les opportunit\u00e9s s\u2019il y en a, et en particulier\u00a0:\n- former d\u2019urgence les \u00e9lus et les fonctionnaires territoriaux \u00e0 la compr\u00e9hension du probl\u00e8me, complexe et prot\u00e9iforme, pour ensuite partager cette compr\u00e9hension avec les acteurs locaux.\n- ne plus mettre en route des projets qui vont aggraver l\u2019adversit\u00e9\n- modifier la gouvernance (plus transversale et moins en silos) et de se doter d\u2019une strat\u00e9gie qui soit coh\u00e9rente avec le contexte.\n\u00a0\nPour faciliter le passage \u00e0 l\u2019action, il a paru pertinent au Shift Project de d\u00e9cliner cette approche en fonction des particularit\u00e9s des territoires. Selon que nous nous adressons \u00e0 une m\u00e9tropole, une plus petite ville, la campagne, la montagne, le littoral, ou l\u2019outre-mer, la mani\u00e8re d'attaquer la question varie. \n\u00a0\nUne s\u00e9rie de webinaires, qui d\u00e9marre Mardi 11 octobre, pr\u00e9sente ces nouveaux travaux. Comme tout ce que fait le Shift Project, c'est public, et c'est gratuit !\n" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6983311008547102720,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6983311009276911616,urn:li:activity:6983311009276911616,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 71, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6983311009276911616,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6983311009276911616,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8187040415899134368)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Les TPE-PME angoiss\u00e9es face au changement climatique by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/pme-regions/actualite-pme/les-tpe-pme-angoissees-face-au-changement-climatique-1865804" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les TPE-PME angoiss\u00e9es face au changement climatique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6983170039562522625,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "On a un peu tendance \u00e0 l'oublier quand on voit les noms mis en avant par les militants dans le \"combat environnemental\" : il n'y a pas que des grands groupes dans l'\u00e9conomie. Face au d\u00e9fi \u00e9nergie climat, les PME et TPE vont aussi devoir modifier leurs pratiques, et s'adapter \u00e0 un monde qui change. Mais, \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence des grandes entreprises, les PME et TPE ont souvent beaucoup moins de moyens pour investiguer l'avenir et pour s'y pr\u00e9parer. \n\nDans les petites entreprises, l'encadrement est en effet souvent r\u00e9duit \u00e0 quelques personnes, qui doivent tout \u00e0 la fois trouver les clients, causer au banquier, g\u00e9rer les salari\u00e9s, interagir avec le comptable, g\u00e9rer en direct les formalit\u00e9s administratives de toute nature associ\u00e9es \u00e0 l'activit\u00e9.\n\nCela ne laisse que peu de temps pour r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 10 ans ou plus, et il y a souvent peu d'argent pour embaucher des consultants pour r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 leur place. Et pourtant il va bien falloir que nos TPE et PME s'y collent aussi. \n\nN'oublions pas que l'essentiel de l'activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et de l'emploi se loge dans des entit\u00e9s qui ne focalisent pas autant l'attention que Total ou BNPP, mais qui devront faire leur part. \n\nComme les PME et TPE sont globalement moins bien outill\u00e9es que les grands groupes pour trouver en interne les moyens de savoir \u00e0 quelle sauce elles seront mang\u00e9es, il est essentiel de mettre \u00e0 leur disposition par l'ext\u00e9rieur les informations leur permettant de comprendre o\u00f9 sont les limites plan\u00e9taires, et des outils de gestion leur permettant de se confronter aux limites en question.\n\nMais il sera aussi n\u00e9cessaire de les cadrer, car le virage \u00e0 prendre est trop serr\u00e9 pour compter uniquement sur les bonnes volont\u00e9s. La puissance publique doit donc donner de la visibilit\u00e9. Plus encore que pour les grands groupes, c'est le seul moyen d'\u00e9viter de la casse en s\u00e9rie avec des \u00e9v\u00e9nements externes qui nous forceront au changement.\n\nEnfin, il ne faut pas se raconter d'histoire : toutes les entreprises et tous les emplois ne passeront pas au travers de la d\u00e9carbonation. Il faut donc aussi planifier la reconversion des emplois, voire venir en aide aux chefs de petites entreprises qui se retrouveront sur le carreau (tous ne gagnent pas des fortunes !). \n\nMais une chose est sure : plus on reculera devant l'obstacle, plus il y aura de casse \u00e0 terme." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6983170039562522625,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6983170040263024640,urn:li:activity:6983170040263024640,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 63, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6983170040263024640,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:13651404", "trackingId": "2gADIT0xQ1iEZ/4vEOnl9Q==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Il est probable que, tant que nous n'aurons pas d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 notre mani\u00e8re de vivre (et accessoirement diminu\u00e9 la pression sur la biodiversit\u00e9 etc), il sera utile d'y revenir de temps en temps pour illustrer l'importance de l'enjeu.\n\nEntre autres mani\u00e8res de rappeler ce dernier \u00e0 votre bon souvenir sans que ce ne soit trop p\u00e9nible, Les Shifters vous proposent la 3\u00e8 \u00e9dition du festival Projection Transition. \n\nLe principe est simple : chaque jour du 14 au 16 octobre prochains, \u00e0 Paris, Nantes, Toulouse et Bruxelles, il y a une ou deux projection(s) d'un film suivie d'un d\u00e9bat. C'est sympa, c'est convivial, et c'est instructif : quoi demander de plus ?\n\nBon, les shifters n'\u00e9tant pas encore consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme un investissement d'avenir (alors que Dieu sait qu'il y a un paquet d'hydrog\u00e8ne et de carbone renouvelables dans chaque shifteuse et chaque shifter), il vous faudra vous acquitter du prix d'une place aupr\u00e8s de cette bande de gredin(e)s, mais celles et ceux qui le feront ne devraient pas trop regretter le montant consid\u00e9rable qui leur sera r\u00e9clam\u00e9.\n\nEt si vous arrivez \u00e0 y trainer un membre du gouvernement (comme spectateur et pas pour causer), je prends sur moi de vous dire que l'on vous offre la place.\n\nAu plaisir de vous y voir !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6982704910941224960,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Le graphique ci-dessous (source des donn\u00e9es : https://lnkd.in/eBjED9Qi ) retrace la consommation fran\u00e7aise de ce combustible fossile solide depuis 1960.\n\nQuelques faits sautent aux yeux :\n\n- au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1960 on utilisait plus de charbon dans le chauffage (r\u00e9sidentiel) que dans l'industrie (hors sid\u00e9rurgie) ou pour la production \u00e9lectrique !\n\n- \u00e0 la m\u00eame \u00e9poque on utilisait plus de charbon en France que de gaz aujourd'hui (un peu moins de 400 TWh de gaz en France en 2020 contre 600 de charbon au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 60), et presque autant que de p\u00e9trole aujourd'hui (660 TWh de carburants divers en 2020).\n\n- la d\u00e9crue de l'usage du charbon s'est amorc\u00e9e bien avant que le discours climatique ne prenne place, et on ne voit pas d'inflexion particuli\u00e8re de la tendance qui serait li\u00e9e \u00e0 une d\u00e9cision politique \"climatique\" particuli\u00e8re (Sommet de la Terre en 1992 par exemple).\n\n- la d\u00e9crue dans la production \u00e9lectrique est due \u00e0 l'\u00e9puisement des gisements domestiques (voir graphique en commentaire). Le charbon \u00e9tant un pond\u00e9reux solide, il voyage mal. La baisse forte de la production domestique pour cause d'\u00e9puisement des mines n'est jamais compens\u00e9e par des importations en totalit\u00e9\n\n- si nous avions eu plein de charbon, apr\u00e8s les chocs p\u00e9troliers nous serions pass\u00e9s du p\u00e9trole au charbon dans la production \u00e9lectrique (comme les allemands). L'essor du nucl\u00e9aire \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque (que je consid\u00e8re \u00eatre une bonne chose) ne doit rien \u00e0 la \"vertu climatique\" :) : c'est juste que nous n'avions pas assez de charbon !\n\n- c'est dans la sid\u00e9rurgie que la d\u00e9crue a \u00e9t\u00e9 la plus lente, parce que le charbon m\u00e9tallurgique (qui sert - apr\u00e8s avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 transform\u00e9 en coke - \u00e0 passer du minerai de fer \u00e0 la fonte) vaut plus cher que le charbon vapeur (qui sert \u00e0 produire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9), et voyage donc plus, et par ailleurs le charbon est le moyen le plus simple (donc le moins cher) de produire un acier qui intervient partout dans la construction et l'industrie.\n\nCette \u00e9volution \u00e0 la baisse de la consommation se constate aussi en Europe au sens large, pour les m\u00eames raisons (le pic de production du charbon en Grande Bretagne a \u00e9t\u00e9 en 1914 !).\n\nQuelle conclusion tirer de tout cela ? D'abord qu'il faut toujours regarder les \u00e9volutions en s\u00e9rie longue - et interpr\u00e9ter les tendances - avant d'avoir un avis sur un \u00e9v\u00e9nement ponctuel (qui sera \u00e9ventuellement justifi\u00e9 par une action clairvoyante alors qu'il n'en est rien !).\n\nEnsuite et surtout que nous ne ferons pas n\u00e9cessairement un \"retour au charbon et au gaz et tant pis pour le CO2\" s'il n'y a plus de nucl\u00e9aire. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8707415143839365370)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtl.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L'INT\u00c9GRALE - C'est notre plan\u00e8te (01/10/22) by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/on-refait-la-planete-rtl/7900191033-l-integrale-c-est-notre-planete-01-10-22" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'INT\u00c9GRALE - C'est notre plan\u00e8te (01/10/22)" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6981916773130338304,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il n'y a pas que nos voitures, chaudi\u00e8res et biftecks qui concourent aux \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Aller \u00e0 l'h\u00f4pital, ce qui n'est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pas quelque chose que l'on fait de gait\u00e9 de coeur, y contribue aussi.\n\nDans le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise, un plein chapitre est consacr\u00e9 \u00e0 l'empreinte carbone du secteur de la sant\u00e9, qui repr\u00e9sente environ 8% de l'empreinte du pays (chiffre qui peut varier de plus ou moins 2% en fonction des m\u00e9thodes) : https://bit.ly/3y6kyOq\n\nJ'ai tent\u00e9 d'en r\u00e9sumer l'esprit dans ces 3 minutes de chronique hebdomadaire sur RTL. La moyenne d'\u00e2ge de l'audience de la radio (entre 55 et 60 ans) en faisant - h\u00e9las - une population probablement d\u00e9j\u00e0 fr\u00e9quemment concern\u00e9e par la question, j'esp\u00e8re qu'elle sera int\u00e9ress\u00e9e par le contenu.\n\nLa \"grosse\" question est \u00e9videmment de savoir comment on maintient les gens en meilleure sant\u00e9 possible (jusqu'\u00e0 ce qu'ils meurent, parce que ca nous arrive \u00e0 tous) dans un monde avec de moins en moins de p\u00e9trole (transports des malades et du personnel, chimie organique pour faire tout ce qui contient du plastique ou des fibres de synth\u00e8se, ou des principes actifs ou r\u00e9actifs de labo), de gaz (chauffage et chimie organique aussi), et de charbon (m\u00e9tallurgie et donc acier de tous les dispositifs qui en contiennent). \n\nUne partie de la solution passe \u00e9videmment par la pr\u00e9vention. Si nous avons moins de pathologies chroniques, cela diminue \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence le besoin de les prendre en charge : cela s'appelle la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 de l'appareil de soins.\n\nPour cela on peut penser au sport, et \u00e0 l'action contre les mauvaises habitudes en mati\u00e8re de tabac, alcool, alimentation, et s\u00e9dentarit\u00e9. Au vu de l'importance des d\u00e9penses concernant les troubles psychiatriques dans le budget de la s\u00e9cu, on peut aussi se poser la question de l'impact qu'aurait un avenir collectif enthousiasmant et cr\u00e9dible propos\u00e9 par le monde politique.\n\nA ce titre l'interdiction de la publicit\u00e9 pour tout aliment dont le nutriscore n'est pas A, ou pour la voiture (on marche un peu quand on prend le bus ou le m\u00e9tro, et on fait un effort quand on marche ou on p\u00e9dale) serait pertinente !\n\nUne autre partie du chemin peut \u00eatre fait avec des mesures techniques (m\u00e9dicaments \u00e0 l'unit\u00e9, efforts chez les fabricants de m\u00e9dicaments et dispositifs m\u00e9dicaux - seringues, cath\u00e9ters seringues etc). Mais ca ne suffira pas \u00e0 ce que l'h\u00f4pital fonctionne dans un monde \"neutre en carbone\".\n\nBien \u00e9videmment ce chiffre de 8% est pour le moment un ordre de grandeur. Un autre effort est aussi \u00e0 faire pour am\u00e9liorer l'information qui permet de faire des arbitrages. On pourrait par exemple imaginer que les remboursements de m\u00e9dicaments soient conditionn\u00e9s \u00e0 la production d'un bilan carbone par le labo qui les fabrique. Apr\u00e8s tout le client (donc la CNAM) est roi...\n\nCe secteur est aujourd'hui tr\u00e8s en retard par rapport \u00e0 d'autres sur sa confrontation au monde de demain qui d\u00e9carbonera de gr\u00e9 ou de force. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: La France va cofinancer la construction de dix usines misant sur l'hydrog\u00e8ne by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/la-france-va-cofinancer-la-construction-de-dix-usines-misant-sur-lhydrogene-1852460" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La France va cofinancer la construction de dix usines misant sur l'hydrog\u00e8ne" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6981513753645178881,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Nous avons d\u00e9sormais les yeux de Chim\u00e8ne pour l'hydrog\u00e8ne. Partons nous dans la bonne direction avec les annonces gouvernementales ?\n\nDans le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise, nous proposons d'en produire \"un peu\", c'est \u00e0 dire en gros autant qu'aujourd'hui, mais au lieu de le faire en \"reformant du m\u00e9thane\" (voir https://bit.ly/3LSyUHN ), il serait produit en \u00e9lectrolysant de l'eau avec de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e.\n\nDans notre plan, il ne sert qu'\u00e0 deux choses :\n- produire de l'ammoniac, qui permet lui-m\u00eame de produire des engrais. M\u00eame en diminuant la consommation d'engrais de synth\u00e8se, nous en aurons besoin un petit moment avant de pouvoir \u00e9ventuellement nous en passer \"un jour\" en agriculture\n- produire de l'acier, en rempla\u00e7ant le charbon (le coke) pour \u00f4ter l'oxyg\u00e8ne associ\u00e9 au fer dans le minera de fer.\n\nCe sont donc deux applications industrielles \"fixes\". Nous ne proposons pas d'en utiliser de mani\u00e8re significative dans les transports. Les raisons \u00e0 cela sont :\n\n- le volume d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 n\u00e9cessaire. Les poids lourds c'est actuellement 8 millions de tonnes de p\u00e9trole par an en France. Pour avoir la m\u00eame \u00e9nergie sous forme d'hydrog\u00e8ne (sachant que les rendements d'une pile \u00e0 combustible et d'un moteur de poids lourd sont proches) il faudrait environ un tiers de la production \u00e9lectrique actuelle (il en faudrait 3,5 fois moins pour une propulsion directe \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 en posant des cat\u00e9naires sur les autoroutes et les principales routes)\n\n- la logistique de l'hydrog\u00e8ne. Gaz le moins dense \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiquement par unit\u00e9 de volume, son stockage et sa manutention sont tr\u00e8s couteux \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiquement. Mol\u00e9cule la plus petite de notre environnement, ce gaz s'infiltre par la moindre fissure et fragilise l'acier : il faut modifier les r\u00e9seaux ou en construire de nouveaux (ca nous met hors d\u00e9lai)\n\nQuand on lit dans cet article des Echos que le plan hydrog\u00e8ne fran\u00e7ais concerne surtout la mobilit\u00e9, il est \u00e0 craindre que notre pays ne prenne \u00e0 nouveau un vrai probl\u00e8me par le mauvais bout. Cette mobilit\u00e9 hydrog\u00e8ne peut \u00e9ventuellement concerner des applications de niche (un train ici ou l\u00e0), mais il y a des alternatives plus pertinentes pour l''essentiel de la mobilit\u00e9 des personnes et des marchandises que de se jeter sur ce vecteur \u00e0 la mode.\n\nVoir https://bit.ly/3Ciz3B4 pour le fret ; https://bit.ly/2H5Eubp pour la mobilit\u00e9 du quotidien et https://bit.ly/3rj6lK1 pour la mobilit\u00e9 longue distance. \n\nEnfin le gouvernement table sur une \"baisse des couts\". Mais la baisse des couts se constate historiquement dans un monde mondialis\u00e9 en croissance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Nous ne l'aurons plus dans un monde globalement en d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. \n\nNous n'avons que 28 ans pour arriver \u00e0 diviser les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires par 3, ou pour avoir en Europe une division par 2 \u00e0 10 du p\u00e9trole disponible (https://bit.ly/3E6qJFY ). Nous n'avons pas le luxe de t\u00e2tonner en se disant que l'on changera de plan s'il est mauvais. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8974255089298672142)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lemonde.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Le plan v\u00e9lo sera \u00ab dot\u00e9 de 250 millions d\u2019euros en 2023 \u00bb, annonce Matignon by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2022/09/20/le-plan-velo-sera-dote-de-250-millions-d-euros-en-2023-annonce-matignon_6142361_3234.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le plan v\u00e9lo sera \u00ab\u00a0dot\u00e9 de 250\u00a0millions d\u2019euros en\u00a02023\u00a0\u00bb, annonce Matignon" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6981141248136908800,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le gouvernement va d\u00e9penser 250 millions en 2023 pour le v\u00e9lo, essentiellement pour les infrastructures. Que peut-on faire avec une telle somme ? \n- construire 2500 km de pistes cyclables en bordure d'une voirie existante, ou 800 km si ce n'est pas le cas\n- construire une petite centaine de franchissements d'obstacles (passerelle au-dessus d'une voie rapide, tunnel sous une 2x2 voies, etc).\n\nPour donner une base de comparaison, c'est le cout de 10 km de tramway ou 40 km d'autoroute neuve. Tous modes confondus notre pays met environ 15 \u00e0 20 milliards d'euros par an dans les infrastructures de transport (https://bit.ly/3y19WA4 ). Le plan annonc\u00e9 par le gouvernement repr\u00e9sente donc 1% de cette somme.\n\nC'est assur\u00e9ment mieux que rien, et plus qu'avant. Mais pour un pays qui va voir 50% \u00e0 90% de son p\u00e9trole dispara\u00eetre d'ici \u00e0 2050 (https://bit.ly/3CfVHtR ), ce ne peut \u00eatre qu'un d\u00e9but. Dans le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise, le v\u00e9lo sous toutes ses formes participe de mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s significative \u00e0 la d\u00e9crue de la circulation automobile en ville et en zone p\u00e9riurbaine.\n\nMais en fait la mani\u00e8re la plus utile de d\u00e9penser cet argent aurait probablement \u00e9t\u00e9 de former tous les gestionnaires de voirie des collectivit\u00e9s locales pour qu'ils aient envie de bien faire en mati\u00e8re de pistes cyclables et de garages \u00e0 v\u00e9lo. On ferait ainsi effet de levier sur les d\u00e9penses de voirie de ces entit\u00e9s, qui sont de loin les premiers clients du BTP. Apprendre aux enfants des rudiments de code de la voirie est aussi une excellente id\u00e9e.\n\nA ce propos, le modeste cycliste occasionnel que je suis propose aux \u00e9lus locaux quelques petits conseils pour am\u00e9liorer le sort des convertis \u00e0 la p\u00e9dale :\n\n- tous les cyclistes ne vont pas \u00e0 la m\u00eame vitesse. Il faut donc permettre le d\u00e9passement entre cycles avec des voies assez larges \n\n- \u00e9viter les itin\u00e9raires mixtes pi\u00e9tons/cyclistes. La personne qui va au travail \u00e0 25 km/h - et qui ne va pas se limiter \u00e0 5 km/h \u00e0 cause de ce qui suit - n'a pas grand chose en commun avec le pi\u00e9ton qui d\u00e9ambule \u00e0 5 km/h.\n\n- \u00e9vitez de mettre des chicanes aux intersections. Elles causent plus d'accidents qu'elles n'en \u00e9vitent (en particulier par temps de pluie quand la chauss\u00e9e est glissante) parce que tout cycliste cherchera \u00e0 la passer avec le maximum d'\u00e9lan pour \u00e9viter de forcer pour r\u00e9-acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer derri\u00e8re.\n\n- limitez au maximum la cohabitation avec les voitures. Ces derni\u00e8res ont une f\u00e2cheuse tendance \u00e0 occuper tout l'espace et \u00e0 d\u00e9passer de mani\u00e8re imprudente. Accessoirement, les routes \u00e9tant pay\u00e9es avec les imp\u00f4ts locaux et non avec l'argent des seuls automobilistes, il n'y a aucune raison pour que le/la cycliste (qui paye autant d'imp\u00f4ts locaux que les automobilistes) ait droit \u00e0 moins de voirie que les conducteurs d'engins motoris\u00e9s.\n\n- pr\u00e9voyez suffisamment de places dans les parkings \u00e0 v\u00e9lo. \n\n- et surtout faites appel \u00e0 des personnes \"qui savent\" !\n\nMerci :) " }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6981141248136908800,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6981141249013514240,urn:li:activity:6981141249013514240,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 587, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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syst\u00e8me, juste apr\u00e8s le N-1\u00e8me et juste avant le N+1\u00e8me. Les retraites \u00e9tant un enfant de l'\u00e9nergie abondante, la d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique va p\u00e9riodiquement nous pousser \u00e0 y revenir, puisqu'\u00e0 chaque fois les pr\u00e9visions de recettes futures p\u00e8cheront par exc\u00e8s d'optimisme, car l'inverse est difficile \u00e0 vendre (en pratique ces recettes d\u00e9pendent du PIB qui est toujours pr\u00e9vu plus haut qu'il n'est r\u00e9ellement).\n\nPar contre l'histoire pourrait se souvenir du premier pr\u00e9sident qui aura un plan s\u00e9rieux - comprendre compatible avec la physique du probl\u00e8me - pour permettre \u00e0 chacun(e) d'exercer un emploi, d'esp\u00e9rer du lendemain et d'\u00eatre \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s heureux dans un monde qui se d\u00e9carbone et s'accommode des limites plan\u00e9taires.\n\nNe pas avoir cet objectif, quand on est le chef d'un des deux \u00e9tats structurants de l'Union Europ\u00e9enne, quand on dirige un pays qui a tant contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 innover sur le plan des 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6980484982276276224,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans le monde infini, la question ne se pose pas : s'il y a de l'inflation, cela signifie qu'il y a trop d'argent en circulation pour les biens et services disponibles, donc il faut restreindre l'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l'argent, donc les banques centrales montent les taux. \n\nSi une r\u00e9cession doit suivre, le mal ne peut \u00eatre que temporaire, puisque le monde est infini, et que c'est juste une mauvaise passe avant le retour de la croissance. Cette derni\u00e8re est \u00e9videmment garantie sur facture \"\u00e0 long terme\", puisque c'est le conseil d'orientation des retraites qui le dit (voir tableau 1.4 page 44 de https://lnkd.in/d3Hef-HS qui \"pr\u00e9voit\" une croissance du PIB jusqu'en 2070, ou encore la figure 1.14 page 40, qui nie la baisse constante de la croissance de la productivit\u00e9 du travail depuis 1980, qui provient de la contrainte croissante sur la disponibilit\u00e9 en machines au travail).\n\nMais dans le monde fini, faut-il lutter contre l'inflation ? Ce n'est pas dans ce cadre que se place Jean-Marc Vittori dans cette tribune. Il se contente de souligner que, d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, diminuer l'inflation prot\u00e8ge certes les revenus des gens modestes, mais les prive d'une possibilit\u00e9 de rembourser leurs emprunts \u00e0 bon compte (car si les taux r\u00e9els baissent, ou deviennent n\u00e9gatifs, cela avantage les gens endett\u00e9s de mani\u00e8re significative par rapport \u00e0 leur revenu).\n\nMais il aurait pu prolonger la r\u00e9flexion en se demandant quelle \u00e9tait la bonne marche \u00e0 suivre dans un monde o\u00f9 le PIB ne va pas augmenter mais baisser, du moins si on le compte toujours de la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re, parce que les flux physiques qui sont \u00e0 la base de la machine \u00e9conomique vont baisser (\u00e0 cause de la contraction \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique). \n\nCar, dans ce monde l\u00e0, le pouvoir d'achat r\u00e9el va s'\u00e9roder. Cela pose \u00e9videmment la question cruciale de la r\u00e9partition de l'effort - et il est \u00e9vident que ceux qui ont beaucoup doivent y prendre une plus grande part par personne que ceux qui ont peu - mais cela pose aussi la question non moins cruciale de savoir quel sera le moyen le moins douloureux : par marches d'escalier - avec de temps en temps un grand craquement quelque part - ou de mani\u00e8re continue ?\n\nDans ce dernier cas l'inflation n'est pas n\u00e9cessairement la plus mauvaise mani\u00e8re de s'attaquer au probl\u00e8me. Cette conclusion peut sembler tr\u00e8s iconoclaste. Dans le monde infini elle l'est de mani\u00e8re certaine. Dans le monde vers lequel nous nous dirigeons il faudrait y r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir un peu quand m\u00eame." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6980484982276276224,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6980484983194832896,urn:li:activity:6980484983194832896,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 50, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6980484983194832896,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6980484983194832896,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:6999843080746754134)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: En dix ans, 225 millions de personnes sont devenues r\u00e9fugi\u00e9es climatiques by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/asie-pacifique/en-dix-ans-225-millions-de-personnes-sont-devenues-refugiees-climatiques-1788943" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "En dix ans, 225\u00a0millions de personnes sont devenues r\u00e9fugi\u00e9es climatiques" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6980062470342111232,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les Echos publient un article bas\u00e9 sur une publication (que je suppose r\u00e9cente) de l' \"Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre\" sur les r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s climatiques en Asie sur a p\u00e9riode 2010 - 2021 (https://lnkd.in/e35jb6Sa ). \n\nPuisqu'elles se terminent \u00e0 fin 2021, les analyses n'incluent pas l'\u00e9pisode particuli\u00e8rement s\u00e9v\u00e8re qui vient de se produire au Pakistan, avec des inondations qui concernent plus de 100.000 km2 (et qui mettront parfois 6 mois \u00e0 dispara\u00eetre) et 8 millions de r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s (https://lnkd.in/ePf62QFU ).\n\nIl serait en fait plus juste de parler de \"r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques\", car les personnes qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 oblig\u00e9es de quitter leur domicile l'ont fait \u00e0 cause d'un \"\u00e9v\u00e9nement extr\u00eame\", qui est du registre de la m\u00e9t\u00e9o, la r\u00e9p\u00e9tition de ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements \u00e9tant par contre du registre du climat. Le document ne dit pas quelle est la p\u00e9riode moyenne de d\u00e9placement (car une fois l'inondation partie une fraction des d\u00e9plac\u00e9s retourne l\u00e0 o\u00f9 elle \u00e9tait ; c'est \u00e9videmment moins vrai avec les tremblements de terre et glissements de terrain qui sont cependant la cause de beaucoup moins de mouvements de population).\n\nEn agr\u00e9g\u00e9 sur 11 ans, l'Asie concentre l'essentiel de ces r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s dans le monde, et au sein de la r\u00e9gion c'est la Chine qui arrive en t\u00eate. Ces r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s sont pour l'essentiel internes au pays, et par ailleurs les deux causes majeures, et de tr\u00e8s loin (plus de 90% du total) sont les inondations et les temp\u00eates. \n\nOutre les inondations, un ouragan majeur dans l'est de la r\u00e9gion peut conduire \u00e0 l'\u00e9vacuation de millions de personnes, ce qui fera probablement plus de d\u00e9c\u00e8s que la violence des \u00e9l\u00e9ments au moment du passage de l'ouragan, que dans la r\u00e9gion on appelle typhon ou cyclone.\n\nLe changement climatique devrait malheureusement accro\u00eetre la pression dans le mauvais sens :\n- il va augmenter les pluies de moussons en Asie\n- ces pluies causeront des inondations encore plus fortes si il y a des \u00e9pisodes plus secs pendant la saison s\u00e8che, parce que cela diminue la perm\u00e9abilit\u00e9 des sols\n- enfin le r\u00e9chauffement des eaux stagnantes favorisera probablement la diss\u00e9mination des maladies, qui sont souvent la premi\u00e8re cause de d\u00e9c\u00e8s en pareil cas (les gens n'ont plus acc\u00e8s \u00e0 de l'eau saine et/ou se contaminent les uns les autres).\n\nPar ailleurs l'urbanisation galopante de ces r\u00e9gions concentre les gens dans des villes souvent situ\u00e9es en plaine et pr\u00e8s de fleuves, donc avec une configuration particuli\u00e8rement propice pour conduire \u00e0 des victimes en nombre en cas de fortes pluies (qui vont augmenter dans la zone en r\u00e9ponse au r\u00e9chauffement climatique).\n\nDans une zone fortement peupl\u00e9e, il n'y a \u00e9videmment pas de solution miracle \u00e0 court terme pour contrer ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne. Et plus ce genre de mouvement interne augmente, plus cela affecte de proche en proche le reste de la zone, voire le reste du monde. Il est h\u00e9las \u00e0 craindre que nous n'en soyons qu'au d\u00e9but." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6980062470342111232,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6980062471239647232,urn:li:activity:6980062471239647232,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 13, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6980062471239647232,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6980062471239647232,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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tester l'eActros en mode de fonctionnement r\u00e9el \u00e0 partir de 2023. @Daimler" }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8351554481181005847)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8351554481181005847)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "latribune.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Daimler Truck d\u00e9voile le tout premier camion \u00e9lectrique et prend de vitesse Tesla by latribune.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/automobile/daimler-truck-devoile-le-tout-premier-camion-electrique-et-prend-de-vitesse-tesla-933001.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Daimler Truck d\u00e9voile le tout premier camion \u00e9lectrique et prend de vitesse Tesla" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6979740833826643968,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il n'y a pas que les voitures et les avions qui utilisent du p\u00e9trole : il y a aussi les engins de transport des marchandises, dont les camions. Pourtant, quand on pense \"\u00e9lectrification des transports\", c'est d'abord au transports de personnes (voitures voire v\u00e9los) que nous pensons.\n\nMais, paradoxalement, la voiture est aujourd'hui moins vitale que le camion. Si demain matin 90% des voitures fran\u00e7aises \u00e9taient inutilisables, que se passerait-il ? Tous ceux qui habitent \u00e0 moins de 10 km de leur travail se l\u00e8veraient une heure et demie plus t\u00f4t et marcheraient, et \u00e0 moins de 20 km ils prendraient un v\u00e9lo. A plus on partagerait les voitures restantes transform\u00e9es en taxi. Bus et train seraient aussi mieux remplis.\n\nLes courses seraient faites \u00e0 pied ou v\u00e9lo avec un sac \u00e0 dos. Nous arr\u00eaterions de partir en vacances en voiture, et la vie sociale en prendrait un coup. Un certain nombre de personnes accepteraient un travail un peu moins int\u00e9ressant mais plus proche. Etc. Tout cela serait p\u00e9nible voire douloureux, mais rarement mortel.\n\nMais si demain matin nous n'avions plus que 10% des camions dans le pays, 90% des marchandises - qui en tonnage sont pour un tiers de la nourriture - ne circuleraient plus. La disette menacerait partout (sans camions les villes meurent de faim au sens propre), de nourriture comme de casseroles ou de d\u00e9tergents.\n\nC'est dire que le d\u00e9clin p\u00e9trolier, qui arrive d\u00e9j\u00e0 et va massivement s'amplifier dans les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir, pour des raisons de climat ou de g\u00e9ologie (https://bit.ly/3DPdMQv ), pose une question bien plus cruciale que celle du d\u00e9placement des personnes \u00e0 notre \u00e9conomie mondialis\u00e9e, o\u00f9 plus rien n'est vraiment local (m\u00eame la patate locale a n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 un tracteur en acier pas local et fonctionnant au p\u00e9trole pas local) : le d\u00e9placement des marchandises. \n\nDe ce fait, s'il doit y avoir - et il y aura - une contrainte physique sur les m\u00e9taux pour batteries, vaut-il mieux d'abord garder des voitures d'une tonne, remplies avec une seule personne une tr\u00e8s large partie du temps, et les \u00e9lectrifier, ou passer la voiture \u00e0 p\u00e9trole d'une tonne au v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique (avec remorque pour les enfants et les courses) de 20 kg, et \u00e9lectrifier les camions ? (et d\u00e9velopper le train ?)\n\nAvec ce qui est \u00e9crit ci-dessus, poser la question c'est y r\u00e9pondre. Apr\u00e8s, la bonne question est de savoir comment \u00e9lectrifier le fret. Car on peut soit avoir des camions avec des grosses batteries pour faire 500 km, comme le propose Daimler, soit transformer les camions en trolleybus et les faire circuler sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 du r\u00e9seau tant qu'ils sont sur autoroutes et voies majeures (https://bit.ly/3BKTlBz ), pour utiliser une plus petite batterie batterie juste sur le segment terminal, ou assurer ce dernier avec d'autres v\u00e9hicules.\n\nDans un monde o\u00f9 les mat\u00e9riaux (qui en Europe \"viennent de loin\" et demandent des bateaux... au p\u00e9trole !) se rar\u00e9fient rapidement, mieux vaut affecter les batteries d'abord aux v\u00e9los et au fret." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6979740833826643968,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6979740834556436480,urn:li:activity:6979740834556436480,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 289, 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m\u00e9canisme juste et op\u00e9rationnel du\u00a0financement de la biodiversit\u00e9\n\nDe nombreuses entreprises et organisations publiques souhaitent initier des d\u00e9marches de protection de la biodiversit\u00e9, elles sont cependant souvent frein\u00e9es par une difficult\u00e9 majeure\u00a0: elles ne peuvent\u00a0\u00e9valuer\u00a0les effets positifs des actions qu\u2019elles mettent en \u0153uvre au niveau local,\u00a0ou qu\u2019elles veulent financer, faute de disposer d\u2019un outil adapt\u00e9.\u00a0 \n\nIl est pourtant indispensable qu\u2019elles initient et financent des projets d\u2019envergure de restauration et conservation des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes. Pr\u00e8s de\u00a0800 milliards de dollars\u00a0devraient en effet \u00eatre investis chaque ann\u00e9e pour enrayer l\u2019\u00e9rosion de la biodiversit\u00e9 d\u2019ici \u00e0 2030. Des montants que les Etats seuls ne peuvent engager.\n\nFond\u00e9e par aDryada et Le Printemps des Terres, en partenariat avec Carbone 4 et le Mus\u00e9um national d'Histoire naturelle,\u00a0l\u2019Organization for Biodiversity Certificates (OBC), qui rassemble de nombreux experts et ONG, a pour mission de cr\u00e9er et de d\u00e9velopper cet outil\u00a0: un m\u00e9canisme juste et op\u00e9rationnel pour le financement de la conservation et de la restauration des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes. \n\n\u00ab\u00a0Contribution positive\u00a0\u00bb et non \u00ab\u00a0compensation\u00a0\u00bb, \u00ab\u00a0\u00e9valuer la\u00a0qualit\u00e9 des habitats\u00a0\u00bb plus que \u00ab\u00a0compter les esp\u00e8ces\u00a0\u00bb et \u00ab\u00a0consensus scientifique, m\u00eame imparfait\u00a0\u00bb sont les ma\u00eetres mots d\u2019OBC, le tout en \u00ab\u00a0open-source\u00a0\u00bb, naturellement.\n\n\u27a1\ufe0f Demandez votre invitation pour le lancement officiel de l\u2019initiative, le 4 octobre \u00e0 18h \u00e0 Paris.\n\nhttps://lnkd.in/eFA4TNPs" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6978631751220797441,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6978631752084766720,urn:li:activity:6978631752084766720,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 0, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6978631752084766720,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6978631752084766720,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6978631752084766720", 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lanc\u00e9e dans ce domaine il y a d\u00e9sormais un an, \u00e0 la fois dans le domaine financier (via l'offre BIA-GBS, \u00e9labor\u00e9e en partenariat avec CDC Biodiversit\u00e9, et destin\u00e9e aux acteurs du secteur) et dans le domaine du conseil (incidemment nous cherchons un mouton ou une brebis \u00e0 5 pattes pour compl\u00e9ter l'\u00e9quipe : https://lnkd.in/eEUKcFKZ ).\n\nComme souvent quand nous d\u00e9marrons une activit\u00e9, nous avons besoin de proposer quelque chose de diff\u00e9rent de ce qui existe d\u00e9j\u00e0, et le meilleur moyen pour cela est de d\u00e9velopper une m\u00e9thodologie pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 une question qui n'est pas encore trait\u00e9e ailleurs.\n\nC'est ce que nous avons fait en l'esp\u00e8ce, la question \u00e9tant de savoir \"comment compter le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice\" quand on fournit des moyens pour \u00e9viter une d\u00e9gradation ou pour restaurer une zone. Vue la vitesse \u00e0 laquelle la biodiversit\u00e9 s'\u00e9rode, nous pensons que ce n'est pas compl\u00e8tement inutile de se pencher sur la question... \n\nSi vous \u00eates dirigeant(e) d'entreprise, expert(e), au sein d'une ONG du secteur, dans le monde acad\u00e9mique, ou journaliste, nous vous proposons de venir \u00e0 cette pr\u00e9sentation. Le formulaire d'inscription et des explications compl\u00e9mentaires figurent ci-dessous." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6979108552778903552,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6979108553403834368,urn:li:activity:6979108553403834368,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 10, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6979108553403834368,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6979108553403834368,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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The..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Conf\u00e9rence Isegoria - Jean-Marc Jancovici" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6979067200506634242,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Que signifie de devoir s'adapter \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation pour une \u00e9cole de commerce ? Voil\u00e0 la question qui est au coeur de la r\u00e9flexion men\u00e9e par The Shift Project dans le cadre du projet \"Climasup Business\" (https://lnkd.in/emKRFKAH ), projet dans le cadre duquel j'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 faire une (plus courte que d'habitude !) conf\u00e9rence suivie d'un d\u00e9bat avec des \u00e9tudiant(e)s d'Audencia.\n\nJ'ai propos\u00e9 \u00e0 l'assistance de r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir aux questions suivantes :\n\n- \u00e0 quoi peuvent/doivent servir les dipl\u00f4m\u00e9s d'une \u00e9cole de commerce dans un monde qui se d\u00e9mondialise (l'essentiel des dipl\u00f4m\u00e9s vont actuellement dans des grandes entreprises mondialis\u00e9es, ou chez leurs suppl\u00e9tifs directs que sont les financiers ou les cabinets de conseil en tout genre)\n\n- quels sont les d\u00e9bouch\u00e9s avec une \u00e9conomie qui se contracte de mani\u00e8re structurelle (ce qui est probablement ce qui va se passer pendant l'essentiel de l'existence des \u00e9l\u00e8ves que j'ai eus dans la salle).\n\nEn une heure de temps et avec juste 4 ou 5 questions de l'assistance (des contraintes horaires sur le train ont malheureusement emp\u00each\u00e9 que ce soit plus long), il m'est difficile de \"prendre la temp\u00e9rature\" du public que j'ai en face de moi (pour cela il faut beaucoup de questions et donc beaucoup de temps). \n\nMais d'exp\u00e9rience la r\u00e9action du public apr\u00e8s ce genre d'intervention est pour partie de la col\u00e8re, pour partie du d\u00e9ni, pour partie du \"\u00e0 quoi bon faire des efforts, autant consommer un max tant qu'il en reste\", pour partie \"demain il fera jour\", et pour partie l'envie de d\u00e9croisser la Lune, comme le chantait Brel.\n\nLes jeunes ne sont pas aux manettes. Il est donc illusoire que la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration actuellement aux commandes se repose sur eux, en se disant que, comme les suivants seront mieux outill\u00e9s, autant attendre de leur laisser la place et les probl\u00e8mes seront r\u00e9solus. Nous n'avons pas le temps pour cela. \n\nPar contre, des jeunes bien form\u00e9s peuvent peser \u00e0 court terme sur les d\u00e9cisions de leurs ain\u00e9s : en refusant d'aller travailler pour les entreprises o\u00f9 l'action ne leur semble pas \u00e0 la hauteur. De ma propre exp\u00e9rience, sur les quelques ann\u00e9es qui viennent de s'\u00e9couler, la crainte du \"d\u00e9faut de talents\" est un facteur qui a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 rendre un certain nombre de dirigeant(e)s d'entreprises plus actifs sur la question environnementale en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, et le climat en particulier.\n\nJ'esp\u00e8re donc que c'est utile d'aller tenir un \"discours v\u00e9rit\u00e9\" aux \u00e9l\u00e8ves d'\u00e9tablissements de cette nature. Ca va peut-\u00eatre un peu en secouer certain(e)s, mais ce n'est pas compl\u00e8tement sans effet sur les d\u00e9cisions \u00e0 suivre." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6979067200506634242,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6979067201173495808,urn:li:activity:6979067201173495808,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 56, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6979067201173495808,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6979067201173495808,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"Pour celles et ceux qui ont mon \u00e2ge aujourd'hui, rares ont \u00e9t\u00e9 les ing\u00e9nieurs qui ont d\u00e9vou\u00e9 leur vie \u00e0 la question environnementale. Ils et elles ont plut\u00f4t contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 nous immerger dans les usines, les mines et puits de p\u00e9trole, le territoire am\u00e9nag\u00e9 (comprendre b\u00e9tonn\u00e9 !) avec force routes, autoroutes et aires urbaines diverses, les voiture ou le digital.\n\nD'autres ont financiaris\u00e9 l'\u00e9conomie, l'ont mondialis\u00e9e, am\u00e9ricanis\u00e9e, et ont install\u00e9 la pr\u00e9\u00e9minence des indicateurs \u00e9conomiques sur l'\u00e9tat des ressources naturelles. A l'\u00e9poque nous avons toutes et tous (enfin nos parents pour une partie d'entre nous) trouv\u00e9 cela tr\u00e8s bien pour l'essentiel, nonobstant Dumont et quelques autres avant-gardistes.\n\nMais voil\u00e0, les temps changent. A mesure que nous approchons des limites plan\u00e9taires, identifi\u00e9es \"en ordre de grandeur\" par l'\u00e9quipe Meadows et. al il y a 50 ans (https://bit.ly/2HkwcIl ), une fraction croissante des jeunes ing\u00e9nieurs souhaitent autre chose pour leur avenir professionnel. Leur ordre de pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence met le service public en t\u00eate de liste (preuve s'il en est que l'argent ne fait pas tout partout), et ils et elles r\u00eavent d'une \"r\u00e9volution de l'int\u00e9rieur\". \n\nLeur choix est courageux. Car ils portent des comp\u00e9tences et un prisme de lecture qui seront utiles - essentielles m\u00eame - lorsque les bifurcations viendront - nous en vivons d\u00e9j\u00e0 de petites aujourd'hui - et que le pouvoir politique choisira de faire les choses \"en grand\". Mais... ils devront peut-\u00eatre, avant cela, passer par une p\u00e9riode pas dr\u00f4le o\u00f9 ils devront servir des instructions politiques qu'ils savent \u00eatre \"\u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la plaque\", et ce sans pouvoir d\u00e9sob\u00e9ir facilement \u00e0 la hi\u00e9rarchie.\n\nCertes leur pr\u00e9sence dans l'appareil public augmente la probabilit\u00e9 d'avoir une classe politique bien conseill\u00e9e. Mais in fine les d\u00e9cisions structurantes de cette derni\u00e8re viennent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement d'une pression \u00e9lectorale, et pas de plans coh\u00e9rents mais qui n'ont pas encore \u00e9t\u00e9 compris du public. Et les fonctionnaires peuvent rarement s'exprimer dans l'espace public pour faire la p\u00e9dagogie d'une construction qui n'est pas celle mise en oeuvre par les pouvoirs publics (ca s'appelle le devoir de r\u00e9serve).\n\nJ'esp\u00e8re que l'histoire leur donnera raison. Ce n'est pas que leur int\u00e9r\u00eat : c'est aussi le n\u00f4tre. La d\u00e9carbonation de l'\u00e9conomie, dans le respect des autres limites plan\u00e9taires (biodiversit\u00e9, m\u00e9taux, espace...), et sans provoquer de d\u00e9stabilisation sociale majeure, est un des plus complexes probl\u00e8mes d'optimisation sous contrainte qu'il nous soit donn\u00e9 d'avoir \u00e0 r\u00e9soudre (\u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 savoir comment concevoir un t\u00e9l\u00e9phone 5G ou aller sur Mars est de la gnognotte). \n\nIl est donc plus que souhaitable que ce probl\u00e8me attire des cervelles parmi les analytiquement les plus affut\u00e9es de notre pays. Et en plus cela rend parfois perplexes - de la bonne mani\u00e8re - leurs ain\u00e9s d\u00e9j\u00e0 en place. Allez-y les jeunes !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6978711862255177730,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6978711863446360065,urn:li:activity:6978711863446360065,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 113, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6978711863446360065,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6978711863446360065,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6978711863446360065", "threadId": 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Augustin de Romanet (ADP): \"Je ne veux pas qu'on me reproche de pousser \u00e0 la consommation de voyage\" by bfmtv.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/augustin-de-romanet-aeroport-de-paris-je-ne-veux-pas-qu-on-me-reproche-de-pousser-a-la-consommation_AV-202209190623.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Augustin de Romanet (ADP): \"Je ne veux pas qu'on me reproche de pousser \u00e0 la consommation de voyage\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6978464209973997568,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 635, "length": 12, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:65525487", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:65525487", "name": "A\u00c9RO D\u00c9CARBO", "showcase": false, 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est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement d'avoir un(e) patron(ne) expliquant que son objectif est de faire de la croissance, et en face un(e) journaliste lui demandant si il ou elle a pens\u00e9 aux limites plan\u00e9taires.\n\nMais cette s\u00e9quence sur BFM Business se joue sur le mode exactement inverse : le patron d'A\u00e9roports de Paris explique qu'il s'accommodera d'un trafic a\u00e9rien en baisse si cela est n\u00e9cessaire pour la d\u00e9carbonation du transport a\u00e9rien, et c'est la journaliste qui a l'air de beaucoup tenir \u00e0 ce qu'il dise l'inverse !\n\nPeut-\u00eatre que le rapport d'A\u00c9RO D\u00c9CARBO et du Shift Project \"Pouvoir Voler en 2050\" (https://lnkd.in/d3h_4QA ) est parvenu jusqu'au bureau de l'invit\u00e9 du jour de la radio. Car le travail de mod\u00e9lisation qui avait \u00e9t\u00e9 effectu\u00e9 par des professionnels du secteur concluait sur le fait qu'il serait impossible au secteur a\u00e9rien de baisser ses \u00e9missions de 5% par an sans baisse du trafic. Les innovations techniques n'arriveront pas assez t\u00f4t et/ou ne seront pas du bon ordre de grandeur.\n\nPeut-\u00eatre aussi qu'Augustin de Romanet a pris ses informations en ce qui concerne le futur de la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, qui devrait entamer son d\u00e9clin tendanciel dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir (https://lnkd.in/dMFCWQFw ). Comme il n'y a pour le moment pas le moindre substitut \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle, et que par ailleurs le p\u00e9trole (en volume) pilote le PIB, ca veut dire qu'il y aura moins de k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne et globalement moins de pouvoir d'achat pour se d\u00e9placer. \n\nAu lieu de vouloir \u00e0 toute force lui faire dire qu'il fallait que le trafic augmente, la journaliste aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 mieux inspir\u00e9e de demander \u00e0 son invit\u00e9 quelle \u00e9tait la raison profonde qui le poussait \u00e0 cette conclusion. Une autre fois peut-\u00eatre !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6978464209973997568,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6978464210682793984,urn:li:activity:6978464210682793984,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 93, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6978464210682793984,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6978464210682793984,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6978464210682793984", "threadId": 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L'INT\u00c9GRALE - C'est notre plan\u00e8te (17/09/22) by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/on-refait-la-planete-rtl/7900186365-l-integrale-c-est-notre-planete-17-09-22" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'INT\u00c9GRALE - C'est notre plan\u00e8te (17/09/22)" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6978048783792144384,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pouvoir d'achat ou pouvoir de vivre ? Dans cette chronique diffus\u00e9e Samedi dernier sur RTL, je tente d'expliquer qu'il serait pertinent de basculer sur quelque chose qui ressemblerait plus \u00e0 la deuxi\u00e8me appellation, et pourquoi.\n\nD\u00e8s lors que l'\u00e9nergie est le premier facteur limitant du syst\u00e8me productif (qui repose en fait sur des machines), et d\u00e8s lors que cette \u00e9nergie est appel\u00e9e \u00e0 largement se contracter dans les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir, nous allons assister \u00e0 un mouvement qui sera l'inverse des Trente Glorieuses : la contraction de notre \"pouvoir d'acheter\" tout ce qui est physiquement produit par l'\u00e9conomie : des m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s de logement, des tonnes de voiture, des km/h de vitesse de d\u00e9placement, des litres de soda, des kg de nourriture, des m3 d'eau du robinet, des litres de d\u00e9tergent ou des m2 de chemises, et bien sur des kWh de gaz...\n\nDans ce contexte, promettre la hausse du pouvoir d'achat va cr\u00e9er des malentendus (qui eux-m\u00eames cr\u00e9eront de l'instabilit\u00e9 politique), mais pas un plan qui va pouvoir se r\u00e9aliser (c'est peut-\u00eatre triste mais c'est h\u00e9las ce qui va se passer).\n\nIl faut arriver \u00e0 cr\u00e9er assez vite un indicateur qui int\u00e8gre d'autres param\u00e8tres qui influent de fait sur notre bonheur (la qualit\u00e9 de notre sant\u00e9, le niveau de bruit ou de pollution, l'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 de la verdure, le sentiment de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, le niveau d'entraide, le confort affectif, etc) et optimiser un ensemble dans lequel la taille du caddie de supermarch\u00e9 n'est pas notre seul crit\u00e8re.\n\nBien sur que pour une partie de la population optimiser ce crit\u00e8re reviendra \u00e0 se pr\u00e9occuper avant tout de choses tr\u00e8s mat\u00e9rielles essentielles (logement, nourriture). Mais pour une partie seulement. \n\nJe n'ai \u00e9videmment pas de solution toute pr\u00eate \u00e0 proposer \u00e0 l'instant. Mais il me semble qu'il y a l\u00e0 un domaine o\u00f9 un peu de jus de cerveau pourrait produire des propositions pertinentes, sachant que, pour \u00eatre pleinement op\u00e9rationnel, un indicateur alternatif devra pouvoir s'utiliser dans \u00e9norm\u00e9ment de situations de la vie courante (comme l'argent). \n\nLes indicateurs globaux sont en effet de peu d'effet d\u00e8s lors qu'ils sont en comp\u00e9tition avec un indicateur qui peut s'utiliser au quotidien. C'est l\u00e0 le d\u00e9fi pour toute alternative." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6978048783792144384,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6978048784559710208,urn:li:activity:6978048784559710208,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 73, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6978048784559710208,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6978048784559710208,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8970190252896594972)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "ecb.europa.eu \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: How are we decarbonising our corporate bond holdings? by ecb.europa.eu", "actionTarget": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/explainers/html/decarbonising_corporate_bond_holdings.en.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "How are we decarbonising our corporate bond holdings?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6977885602767589376,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Depuis la cr\u00e9ation de l'Euro, la cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire dans la zone est la pr\u00e9rogative exclusive de la Banque Centrale Europ\u00e9enne (BCE). Du coup, les \u00e9tats adh\u00e9rents \u00e0 la monnaie unique ne peuvent plus financer le d\u00e9ficit de l'Etat par de la cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire d\u00e9cid\u00e9e unilat\u00e9ralement : d\u00e8s qu'il y a un trou, il faut emprunter de l'argent, \"sur les march\u00e9s\", c'est \u00e0 dire en pratique \u00e0 des \u00e9pargnants (l'assurance vie contient surtout des emprunts d'Etat, par exemple).\n\nSi l'\u00e9conomie souffre, et que les flux d'\u00e9pargne baissent alors m\u00eame que les recettes fiscales diminuent, la seule solution pour l'Etat est de monter les taux des emprunts qu'il effectue. Cela d\u00e9clenche potentiellement une spirale infernale, avec des emprunts perp\u00e9tuellement croissants en nominal pour rembourser capital et int\u00e9r\u00eats des emprunts pass\u00e9s, et alors que les produits des imp\u00f4ts n'augmentent pas (la cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire permettait de boucher le trou, mais avec un inconv\u00e9nient qui \u00e9tait la d\u00e9valuation de fait de la monnaie).\n\nPour \u00e9viter aux \u00e9tat europ\u00e9ens concern\u00e9s de se retrouver dans une trop mauvaise passe apr\u00e8s 2008 (date qui marque une \"inversion des flux physiques\" en Europe ; le covid ayant rajout\u00e9 une couche \u00e0 une \u00e9volution de fond), la BCE a depuis massivement achet\u00e9 les obligations \u00e9mises par les \u00e9tats (avec de l'argent magique puisqu'elle peut en cr\u00e9er autant qu'elle veut). \n\nElle a fait de m\u00eame avec les entreprises, pour soutenir l'\u00e9conomie, avec pour cons\u00e9quence que son \"total de bilan\" (la valeur de tout ce qu'elle d\u00e9tient, essentiellement des titres) a \u00e9t\u00e9 multipli\u00e9 par... 8 en 14 ans (voir graphique en commentaire).\n\nA quelque chose malheur est bon : la BCE a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 en juillet dernier qu'elle allait d\u00e9sormais faire intervenir le crit\u00e8re carbone dans ses achats d'obligations d'entreprises (les obligations d'\u00e9tat, dites \"souveraines\", ne sont pas - encore ? - concern\u00e9es). En pratique elle va faire de plus en plus la fine bouche pour acheter des obligations \u00e9mises par des entreprises dont l'activit\u00e9 n'est \"pas raccord\" avec la baisse des \u00e9missions. C'est un geste majeur, parce que jusqu'\u00e0 r\u00e9cemment la BCE consid\u00e9rait que son r\u00f4le n'\u00e9tait pas de se substituer aux \u00e9tats pour orienter l'\u00e9conomie vers la d\u00e9carbonation (la politique mon\u00e9taire doit \u00eatre \"neutre\").\n\nLa BCE a publi\u00e9 hier la mani\u00e8re dont elle allait proc\u00e9der. 3 crit\u00e8res vont \u00eatre utilis\u00e9s pour \u00e9valuer les entreprises concern\u00e9es :\n- l'empreinte carbone et son \u00e9volution pass\u00e9e\n- les objectifs fix\u00e9s\n- le degr\u00e9 de transparence sur la publication des \u00e9missions.\n\nA Carbon 4 Finance nous croisons les doigts : il se trouve que la BCE est notre cliente depuis quelques mois (https://bit.ly/3BR9B5k ), et il se trouve que notre m\u00e9thode Carbon Impact Analytics propose tr\u00e8s exactement les m\u00e9triques qui seront utilis\u00e9es (https://bit.ly/3Unlwza ). Comme notre premi\u00e8re vocation est d'avoir de l'impact (\"\u00eatre utiles \u00e0 quelque chose\"), nous serions heureux de contribuer \u00e0 cette \u00e9volution." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6977885602767589376,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6977885605259001856,urn:li:activity:6977885605259001856,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 33, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6977885605259001856,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6977885605259001856,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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entreprises sur le changement climatique\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6977628226529464321,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est une bataille qui se joue dans les coulisses, et qui attire un peu moins l'attention que l'Euro de foot ou les matchs de Roland Garros. Mais elle pourrait avoir un impact tr\u00e8s significatif sur la mani\u00e8re dont les entreprises seront contraintes - ou pas - de diffuser des informations sur leur prise en compte de la question climatique.\n\nA la base de ce d\u00e9bat se trouve une notion qui s'appelle la \"mat\u00e9rialit\u00e9 du risque\". De quoi s'agit-il ? Il s'agit de disposer d'\u00e9l\u00e9ments qui sont associ\u00e9s \u00e0 l'existence d'un risque (et donc qui permettent de le \"mat\u00e9rialiser\". \n\nDans le domaine du climat, le premier camp est compos\u00e9 des partisans de la \"simple mat\u00e9rialit\u00e9\", qui disent que la seule chose importante est de s'occuper de ce qui peut cr\u00e9er un risque financier \u00e0 relativement court terme pour l'entreprise (sans surprise les am\u00e9ricains sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement de ce c\u00f4t\u00e9 l\u00e0).\n\nA ce moment on demande \u00e0 l'entreprise de produire uniquement les indicateurs qui sont susceptibles de se traduire en un risque direct et proche dans le temps, via une taxation du carbone par exemple. \n\nEn face se trouve le camp des partisans de la \"double mat\u00e9rialit\u00e9\". Ceux l\u00e0 disent qu'il faut aussi inclure ce qui permet de comprendre l'impact de l'activit\u00e9 de l'entreprise sur le climat, parce que cet impact contribue au risque pour l'ensemble de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 (et pas juste pour l'entreprise). Ce camp l\u00e0 est plut\u00f4t repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 par les europ\u00e9ens et demande beaucoup plus d'indicateurs que les autres. Mais comme il est plus contraignant, et que les entreprises n'innovent que sous la contrainte, il est aussi potentiellement plus efficace !\n\nAu travers de diverses initiatives - dont la cr\u00e9ation de l'ISSB par la fondation IFRS - les am\u00e9ricains sont en train d'essayer de normaliser le reporting carbone \u00e0 leur avantage (donc avec peu d'indicateurs et peu de contraintes).\n\nOn note en ce moment l'omnipr\u00e9sence de Bloomberg dans ce combat, lequel Bloomberg a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 se faire nommer envoy\u00e9 sp\u00e9cial de l'ONU \"pour l\u2019ambition et les solutions en faveur du climat\" : https://lnkd.in/eVhR8QJv\n\nAvouez qu'avoir l'ONU comme agence de RP pour vendre ses donn\u00e9es (car le m\u00e9tier de Bloomberg est de vendre de la donn\u00e9e aux financiers) ca en impose !\n\nCela en impose tellement que le m\u00eame Bloomberg a r\u00e9cemment r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 embarquer notre pr\u00e9sident dans une initiative contraire aux int\u00e9r\u00eats de notre pays, ce qui avait conduit \u00e0 la publication de cette tribune dans Le Monde : https://bit.ly/3DwDTM5\n\nL'auteure de la tribune ci-dessous se demande \u00e9galement pourquoi notre pr\u00e9sident soutient \"le camp adverse\" alors que notre pays est en avance sur les USA dans le domaine des m\u00e9thodes de reporting, et que celui qui fait la norme fera le march\u00e9. Bonne question." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6977628226529464321,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6977628227338956800,urn:li:activity:6977628227338956800,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 70, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6977628227338956800,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6977628227338956800,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6977628227338956800", "threadId": 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6977304871871905792,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A la suite de mon passage sur C Politique il y a une semaine, j'ai vu passer des critiques sur ma position qui serait trop complaisante sur le nucl\u00e9aire civil. En esp\u00e9rant que cela sera utile, j'aimerais pr\u00e9ciser quelques points :\n\n- mes investigations sur le nucl\u00e9aire datent de mes d\u00e9buts dans le domaine \u00e9nergie climat, en 2000-2001, \u00e0 une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 je n'avais aucun acteur de cette fili\u00e8re comme client (mon client le plus important \u00e9tait l'Ademe pour le Bilan Carbone ; si j'avais du avoir des conclusions par int\u00e9r\u00eat je serais devenu anti !)\n\n- longtemps - et peut-\u00eatre encore maintenant - mes prises de position publiques ont contrari\u00e9 plus de clients de Carbone 4 qu'elles n'en ont flatt\u00e9. Mes conclusions sur ce dossier ne proviennent pas d'abord de mon int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9conomique (et pas plus au Shift Project o\u00f9 nous acceptons sans probl\u00e8me de perdre un m\u00e9c\u00e8ne en cas de divergences de vues).\n\n- je n'ai jamais dit et ne dirai jamais que le nucl\u00e9aire est sans risques. Par contre il faut quantifier ces derniers, et ceux des alternatives, pour savoir quelles conclusions tirer. Voir par exemple https://bit.ly/3dlGrlE (qui date d'il y a 20 ans mais l'essentiel reste valable)\n\n- je n'ai jamais dit que de recourir au nucl\u00e9aire nous exon\u00e9rait d'efforts massifs de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9. J'ai toujours dit et \u00e9crit l'inverse.\n\n- je n'ai jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 \"anti ENR\", terme qui ne veut rien dire. Par contre j'ai toujours consid\u00e9r\u00e9 - et je maintiens - que de chercher \u00e0 remplacer du nucl\u00e9aire par de l'\u00e9olien et du solaire revenait \u00e0 augmenter le risque global que nous courrons. En pareil cas nous consacrons du temps et des ressources \u00e0 essayer de supprimer un risque faible au lieu d'allouer ce m\u00eame temps et ces m\u00eames ressources \u00e0 nous occuper d'un risque majeur. Lorsque nous sommes dans une course contre la montre - et nous le sommes - c'est l'assurance raisonnable de prendre des coups en plus (on ne va pas tarder \u00e0 s'en rendre compte).\n\n- pour autant je n'ai jamais dit que solaire et \u00e9olien \u00e9taient sans int\u00e9r\u00eat quelles que soient les circonstances. \n\n- je pense que dans les pays plats, dens\u00e9ment peupl\u00e9s, et fortement industrialis\u00e9s, nous n'aurons jamais un syst\u00e8me 100% ENR permettant un \"mode de vie\" ressemblant de pr\u00e8s ou de loin \u00e0 ce que nous avons aujourd'hui. Vouloir supprimer le nucl\u00e9aire pour le remplacer par des ENR nous expose \u00e0 un risque que les allemands (qui ont pourtant mis le paquet) s'appr\u00eatent \u00e0 conna\u00eetre cet hiver (et surtout les suivants) : avoir remplac\u00e9 une partie du nucl\u00e9aire par... rien.\n\n- enfin je maintiens que les grands media - en t\u00eate le service public - ont pris le nucl\u00e9aire en grippe jusqu'\u00e0 r\u00e9cemment, et ont cr\u00e9\u00e9 dans la population une crainte qui n'est pas en rapport avec les risques r\u00e9els. Elle n'est pas seule en cause, mais notre presse porte assur\u00e9ment sur ses \u00e9paules une part de responsabilit\u00e9 pour la situation actuelle de la fili\u00e8re. C'est pour cela qu'avoir des media qui sachent toujours faire la diff\u00e9rence entre un fait et une opinion est essentiel." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6977304871871905792,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6977304872748515328,urn:li:activity:6977304872748515328,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 328, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6977304872748515328,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6977304872748515328,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9108505519543581813)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L'artificialisation des sols est repartie \u00e0 la hausse en France by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/societe/lartificialisation-des-sols-est-repartie-a-la-hausse-en-france-1787839" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'artificialisation des sols est repartie \u00e0 la hausse en\u00a0France" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6976488473285300224,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le changement climatique n'est bien sur qu'une des pressions amen\u00e9es par la croissance de la population humaine et de la consommation de biens et d'objets par personne. Il y en a d'autres : l'\u00e9rosion de la biodiversit\u00e9, ou la pollution, par exemple. \n\nLa premi\u00e8re cause d'\u00e9rosion de la biodiversit\u00e9 est la destruction d'habitats (pour les esp\u00e8ces), et une des causes de destruction d'habitats est l'artificialisation des sols. Ce n'est certes pas la premi\u00e8re (qui est de loin l'augmentation des surfaces cultiv\u00e9es ou p\u00e2tur\u00e9es) mais elle y contribue. \n\nDans notre pays, cette artificialisation des sols - tr\u00e8s significative - est un autre exemple de hiatus entre le discours et les actes. Cela fait des ann\u00e9es ou m\u00eame des d\u00e9cennies que l'\u00e9talement urbain est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme une tendance \u00e0 combattre, et pour autant il ne cesse de se d\u00e9velopper (le Grand Paris \u00e9tant un projet d'\u00e9talement urbain parmi d'autres, quelles que soient ses justifications).\n\nPour voir comment a \u00e9volu\u00e9 la consommation d'espace pour artificialisation de 2009 \u00e0 janvier 2021, le minist\u00e8re de l'environnement (on me pardonnera de ne pas donner \u00e0 chaque fois le nom \u00e0 rallonge du moment et surtout de ne pas parler de d\u00e9veloppement durable :) ) publie une carte tr\u00e8s parlante : https://bit.ly/3RWb0xm\n\nLa France s'est fix\u00e9 un objectif de \"z\u00e9ro artificialisation nette\" dans la loi climat de 2021, qui pr\u00e9voit que d'ici \u00e0 2030 le rythme d'artificialisation soit divis\u00e9 par 2. Mais \u00e9videmment quand il s'agit de rentrer dans le dur les \u00e9lus locaux expliquent facilement que cet objectif doit surtout concerner les voisins : https://bit.ly/3LhAR06\n\nCela n'est pas tr\u00e8s \u00e9tonnant que les \u00e9lus locaux r\u00e9sistent. Car ce que l'on appelle \"am\u00e9nager\" signifie en pratique couler du b\u00e9ton. A mon modeste niveau d'utilisateur occasionnel d'une voie cyclable situ\u00e9e au sud de Paris (la Coul\u00e9e verte), \u00e0 chaque fois que je vois un panneau annon\u00e7ant un \"am\u00e9nagement\" de cette piste je sais que cela signifie que l'on va b\u00e9tonner/bitumer une partie de la voie ou de ses abords (et ca ne rate jamais !).\n\nTout \u00e9lu local adore en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral d\u00e9livrer des permis de construire. Cela augmente la population dont il a la charge et donc \u00e0 la fois son importance comme \"personne ayant charge d'\u00e2me\", et les imp\u00f4ts ou dotations de toute nature qui arrivent dans ses caisses.\n\nUne des choses qu'il faudra faire si l'on veut inverser la donne sur l'artificialisation sera probablement d'indexer les dotations de l'Etat sur des crit\u00e8res d'attribution qui ne sont pas avant tout la population (mais par exemple la surface non b\u00e2tie ou la superficie foresti\u00e8re).\n\nCe qui est sur, c'est qu'avec les incitations actuelles \u00e0 \u00e0 faire grossir les grandes aires urbaines, parce qu'elles sont \"mieux plac\u00e9es pour l'\u00e9conomie\", nous avons un autre conflit d'objectif entre \u00e9conomie (qui ne compte que l'apport humain) et destruction de ressources gratuites (sols, esp\u00e8ces)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6976488473285300224,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8503707186950593093)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Croissance, inflation : Bercy noircit le tableau pour 2023 by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/economie-france/budget-fiscalite/croissance-inflation-bercy-noircit-le-tableau-pour-2023-1787743" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Croissance, inflation\u00a0: Bercy noircit le tableau pour\u00a02023" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6975725159366205440,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Bercy explique qu'il va falloir composer avec une croissance faible et une inflation qui se d\u00e9veloppe. Bienvenue au 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle.\n\nQuiconque prend le temps de regarder ce qu'est, sur le plan physique, un syst\u00e8me productif, comprend qu'il s'agit en fait d'un ensemble de flux physiques de transformation (https://bit.ly/3qAkHoO ). Cela explique le r\u00f4le central de l'\u00e9nergie, puisque cette derni\u00e8re est par d\u00e9finition ce qui permet de cr\u00e9er ces flux.\n\nD\u00e8s lors que, pour des raisons physiques, les \u00e9nergies fossiles (qui ont historiquement progressivement remplac\u00e9 les \u00e9nergies renouvelables) sont dominantes dans l'approvisionnement mondial, il n'est pas tr\u00e8s compliqu\u00e9 de comprendre que la diminution rapide de ces \u00e9nergies, pour des raisons de climat (elles sont directement \u00e0 l'origine de la majorit\u00e9 de nos \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre) ou pour des raisons d'\u00e9puisement g\u00e9ologique des gisements de p\u00e9trole et de gaz (https://bit.ly/3UaDJjq ) est inexorable.\n\nCette baisse provoquera en retour une diminution des flux physiques (on ne reviendra pas aux \u00e9nergies renouvelables \u00e0 \"mode de vie constant\"), et donc une \"inversion de la croissance\". D'ici pas tr\u00e8s longtemps (quand est toute la question) la \"croissance structurelle de long terme\" sera remplac\u00e9e par la \"d\u00e9croissance structurelle de long terme\". Meadows et al. avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 tr\u00e8s bien expliqu\u00e9 cela il y a 50 ans : https://bit.ly/2HkwcIl\n\nAu niveau du consommateur final, apr\u00e8s qu'il ait \u00e9t\u00e9 possible d'avoir de plus en plus de choses \u00e0 consommer pour une m\u00eame dur\u00e9e de travail (ca s'appelle l'augmentation du pouvoir d'achat), nous allons vivre l'\u00e9volution inverse (d'autant plus marqu\u00e9e par personne que la d\u00e9mographie augmente puisque la contrainte est sur la production totale).\n\nEn pratique elle va s'exprimer par deux processus qui vont aussi devenir de plus en plus fr\u00e9quents : la p\u00e9nurie et l'inflation. Nous en vivons du reste aujourd'hui des signes avant-coureurs : p\u00e9nurie sur des composants issus de la mondialisation, inflation sur nombre de biens de consommation.\n\nBercy a tort de raconter que ca sera une mauvaise passe et qu'apr\u00e8s \"ca ira mieux\". Cela engendre dans la population l'espoir que cela soit physiquement possible. Mais ce qui est physiquement possible est d'apprendre \u00e0 \u00eatre heureux avec moins (tout le d\u00e9fi est d'y arriver !).\n\nPostuler que nous ne devons nous projeter que dans un monde o\u00f9 il y aura toujours plus de flux physiques est perdre notre temps : au lieu d'utiliser nos neurones \u00e0 r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 ce qui serait optimum avec une \u00e9volution \u00e0 la fois proche - en fait d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours en Europe - et inexorable, nous les utilisons \u00e0 r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 ce que nous pourrions faire si les miracles existaient.\n\nPourquoi le faisons nous alors ? Parce qu'une part le cahier des charges des \u00e9lus en d\u00e9mocratie est h\u00e9las de promettre des miracles (relire https://bit.ly/3S3Dbd4 !), et d'autre part et surtout il n'y a pas de plan con\u00e7u pour l'hypoth\u00e8se inverse. Il est temps d'y r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir s\u00e9rieusement !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6975725159366205440,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6975725160221790208,urn:li:activity:6975725160221790208,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 182, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6975725160221790208,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6975725160221790208,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6975350775216533504,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Depuis que le monde financier s'est empar\u00e9 de la question climatique, l'indicateur le plus souvent utilis\u00e9 pour savoir si ses acteurs sont \"du bon c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la barri\u00e8re\" est de mesurer le caract\u00e8re \"compatible ou pas avec la d\u00e9carbonation\" des activit\u00e9s des entreprises ou \u00e9tats dont l'acteur financier d\u00e9tient des actions ou obligations, ou auxquels il accorde des cr\u00e9dits.\n\nLes m\u00e9thodes utilis\u00e9es pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la question sont multiples, mais sur le principe m\u00eame on peut se demander en quoi une banque contribue plus \u00e0 la transition si elle c\u00e8de \u00e0 un tiers des actions d'une entreprise \"trop carbon\u00e9e\", ou si elle ne lui pr\u00eate pas mais qu'une autre banque le fait. En pareil cas, l'activit\u00e9 de l'entreprise ne change pas : il y a juste changement de propri\u00e9taire d'une action ou d'un pr\u00eat. Du coup les \u00e9missions mondiales ne changent pas non plus : elles sont juste allou\u00e9es \u00e0 des entit\u00e9s diff\u00e9rentes.\n\nEn outre, avec la quantit\u00e9 totale d'argent \u00e0 placer dans le monde (l'\u00e9pargne par capitalisation des futurs retrait\u00e9s, et l'\u00e9pargne financi\u00e8re autre), il n'existe pas assez d'activit\u00e9s \"r\u00e9ellement bien plac\u00e9es\" pour que les financiers deviennent tous \"verts\". C'est pour cela que chaque acteur fait un peu de \"vert\" dans un ensemble qui reste de la couleur de l'\u00e9conomie globale.\n\nMais le monde financier, et en particulier les banques, peut aller plus loin. Il peut influer sur l'activit\u00e9 de l'entreprise en conditionnant les modalit\u00e9s de mise \u00e0 disposition de son argent aux performances climat - ou sur un autre crit\u00e8re - de ladite entreprise. C'est le principe du \"pr\u00eat \u00e0 impact\". On peut envisager deux modalit\u00e9s :\n- le taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat est fonction des performances de l'entreprise sur un crit\u00e8re extra-financier. Par exemple si on pr\u00eate \u00e0 un fabriquant de v\u00e9los \u00e9lectriques, plus il vend \u00e0 des gens qui mettent leur voiture \u00e0 la casse pour se d\u00e9placer \u00e0 v\u00e9lo (donc plus il \u00e9vite d'\u00e9missions) et plus le taux est bas\n- le capital restant du devient imm\u00e9diatement exigible si un crit\u00e8re cesse d'\u00eatre respect\u00e9. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8171616399306146657)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbone4.com \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Initiative IRIS : r\u00e9concilier strat\u00e9gie d\u2019entreprise et enjeux \u00ab climat-ressources \u00bb | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/lancement-iris-initiative" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Initiative IRIS : r\u00e9concilier strat\u00e9gie d\u2019entreprise et enjeux \u00ab climat-ressources \u00bb | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6975156235134205952,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pour confronter les entreprises au d\u00e9fi climatique, il faut des rep\u00e8res et des outils. Pour le moment, l'essentiel de ce qui est disponible pour les acteurs \u00e9conomiques d\u00e9rive de \"sc\u00e9narios 2\u00b0C\" ou \"1,5 \u00b0C\" qui sont publi\u00e9s par l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie.\n\nLe principe est le suivant : \u00e0 partir d'une baisse des \u00e9missions globales compatible avec le respect d'une hausse de temp\u00e9rature donn\u00e9e, l'AIE propose une r\u00e9partition par secteur (transports, industrie, etc) puis sous-secteur (et aussi par g\u00e9ographie parfois) du budget carbone annuel, et cela sert de cadre pour fixer aux entreprises un rythme de baisse qui les rend \"compatibles 2\u00b0C\" ou \"compatibles 1,5 \u00b0C\" en fonction de leur secteur d'activit\u00e9 et de leurs implantations.\n\nCes sc\u00e9narios de l'AIE ont cependant plusieurs d\u00e9fauts :\n- ils comptent sur la capture et s\u00e9questration des \u00e9missions (https://bit.ly/3eDBKDT ; c'est un peu vieux mais ca fixe les id\u00e9es) de mani\u00e8re irr\u00e9aliste, ce qui all\u00e8ge d'autant les efforts sur les \u00e9missions du reste de l'\u00e9conomie\n- ils aboutissent \u00e0 des ratios unitaires (\u00e9missions par $ de CA ou de VA, ou par kWh...), qui ne sont pas r\u00e9ajust\u00e9s en permanence en fonction de l'\u00e9volution de l'\u00e9conomie et du nombre global d'acteurs.\n\nPour le pilotage de l'action, une entreprise a ensuite besoin de \"descendre\" dans les \u00e9volutions physiques sous-jacentes \u00e0 l'\u00e9conomie. Pour calculer son CA, un constructeur de voitures a besoin du nombre de v\u00e9hicules qu'il pense pouvoir vendre, et cela est pareil pour un producteur de v\u00eatements ou un gestionnaire de salles de cin\u00e9ma (qui se demande d'abord combien de personnes viendront voir un film).\n\nMais les sc\u00e9narios de place ne donnent que rarement des \"flux physiques\" sur les ventes. Il y a surtout des flux mon\u00e9taires. Du coup il est tr\u00e8s difficile pour les entreprises de savoir comment rapprocher leurs plans \"physiques\" (en nombre d'unit\u00e9s vendues) des plafonds permis par les budgets carbone.\n\nPour pallier ce manque, Carbone 4 a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 il y a 2 ans de lancer l'initiative Iris, pour cr\u00e9er une \"boite \u00e0 outils\" qui permettra de faire des sc\u00e9narios 2\u00b0C ou 1,5 \u00b0C en explicitant les flux physiques sous-jacents de l'\u00e9conomie qui y correspondent.\n\nCela permettra par exemple de dire combien on peut vendre de voitures et de quel type, ou fabriquer de machines \u00e0 laver au fil du temps, dans un monde qui veut respecter tel budget carbone, ou qui dispose de ressources fossiles ou m\u00e9talliques limit\u00e9es (les pics de production sur les fossiles - hors volont\u00e9 d'agir pour le climat - ou sur les m\u00e9taux seront activables).\n\nLa production de cette boite \u00e0 outils va se lancer. 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fran\u00e7ais" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6974980566924283904,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La guerre en Ukraine l'a peut-\u00eatre appris \u00e0 un certain nombre de mes concitoyen(ne)s : nous mangeons du gaz. Les esprits chagrins feront remarquer que le gaz se respire \u00e0 la rigueur, mais ne se mange pas, sauf que le gaz dit naturel, quand on regarde ce que nous en faisons, se mange bel et bien.\n\nPas sous forme de gaz cependant : une partie du composant principal du gaz naturel, le m\u00e9thane, de formule CH4, va servir \u00e0 produire des engrais (on appelle le gaz \"naturel\" par opposition au gaz \"artificiel\", qui \u00e9tait fabriqu\u00e9 dans les \"usines \u00e0 gaz\", par r\u00e9action entre du charbon et de la vapeur d'eau, et qui cr\u00e9ait un m\u00e9lange - hautement toxique quand on le respirait - de monoxyde de carbone et d'hydrog\u00e8ne appel\u00e9 \"gaz de ville\").\n\nPour cela on commence par extraire l'hydrog\u00e8ne du m\u00e9thane, avec une op\u00e9ration appel\u00e9e reformage, qui consiste \u00e0 chauffer tr\u00e8s fort un m\u00e9lange de m\u00e9thane et de vapeur d'eau, pour provoquer la r\u00e9action CH4 + 2*H20 -> 4*H2 + CO2. Pour une tonne d'hydrog\u00e8ne il se d\u00e9gage 10 tonnes de CO2 (combustion du gaz de chauffage & r\u00e9action chimique confondues).\n\nPuis on associe l'hydrog\u00e8ne \u00e0 de l'azote - pr\u00e9lev\u00e9 dans l'air - pour fabriquer de l'ammoniac, de formule NH3. Ce dernier sert alors \u00e0 fabriquer des ammonitrates (ou nitrate d'ammonium), qui sont utilis\u00e9s comme fertilisants pour l'agriculture (accessoirement quand ils sont m\u00e9lang\u00e9s \u00e0 du fioul ils forment un explosif puissant, ce que r\u00e9cemment Beyrouth a h\u00e9las appris \u00e0 ses d\u00e9pends : https://bit.ly/3eKRCnW ).\n\nCes engrais azot\u00e9s ont jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le central dans le passage des rendements du bl\u00e9 de 10 \u00e0 15 quintaux par hectare en 1945 \u00e0 70 \u00e0 la fin des ann\u00e9es 1990 (https://bit.ly/3L4oSmv ). Nous mangeons donc du gaz.\n\nL'ammoniac valant plus cher que le gaz, une partie des producteurs de gaz - dont les russes - se sont int\u00e9gr\u00e9s \u00e0 l'aval et ont construit des usines pour fabriquer de l'ammoniac, voire produire directement des engrais azot\u00e9s.\n\nAvec le gaz, une partie de l'ammoniac et des engrais (la partie russe) est donc aussi devenue plus difficile d'acc\u00e8s et les prix de march\u00e9 ont mont\u00e9. Si des difficult\u00e9s d'approvisionnement sur les volumes persistent, le rendement des cultures ne pourra que baisser. Le bio, par exemple, qui n'utilise pas d'engrais de synth\u00e8se, pr\u00e9sente typiquement dans les c\u00e9r\u00e9ales un rendement de moiti\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 ce qui s'appelle le \"conventionnel\".\n\nUne large partie des cultures (notamment tout le ma\u00efs) servant \u00e0 nourrir des animaux, nous ne risquons pas de mourir de faim. Il suffira de cultiver des v\u00e9g\u00e9taux que nous pouvons manger en direct (car manger du ma\u00efs fourrage on risque de ne pas trouver ca terrible !) au lieu de cultiver de la nourriture pour animaux.\n\nNe plus manger de gaz finira fatalement par arriver : le gaz, comme le p\u00e9trole, est \u00e9puisable, et son pic mondial devrait arriver vers 2030, climat ou pas. A quelque chose malheur est bon : t\u00e2chons de profiter de la situation actuelle pour d\u00e9marrer une transition inexorable de toutes fa\u00e7ons." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6974980566924283904,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6974980567641505792,urn:li:activity:6974980567641505792,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 92, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6974980567641505792,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6974980567641505792,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8313125282387522619)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtl.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: C'est notre plan\u00e8te (10/09/22) by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/on-refait-la-planete-rtl/7900184097-c-est-notre-planete-10-09-22" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est notre plan\u00e8te (10/09/22)" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6974655135725559808,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Depuis que l'Europe cherche fr\u00e9n\u00e9tiquement comment se passer d'une partie de son gaz et de son p\u00e9trole pour lesquels nous sommes d\u00e9pendants des russes, un mot est apparu souvent dans l'espace m\u00e9diatique : la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nComme beaucoup de mots utilis\u00e9s dans le discours politique, celui-ci est souvent utilis\u00e9 sans qu'il n'ait \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9fini au pr\u00e9alable. Dans cette chronique du Samedi matin sur RTL (en l'esp\u00e8ce c'\u00e9tait celle d'hier), je tente d'en fournir une d\u00e9finition \"globale\", et tant que j'y suis j'ai fait de m\u00eame pour l'efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et la pauvret\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique (qui est en fait de la pauvret\u00e9 tout court).\n\nCes trois d\u00e9finitions m'\u00e9taient n\u00e9cessaires lorsque j'ai d\u00e9marr\u00e9 mon cours \u00e0 l'Ecole des Mines de Paris (https://lnkd.in/dM7u2j7 ), parce que je cherchais \u00e0 expliquer \u00e0 mes \u00e9tudiant(e)s comment diff\u00e9rencier les diverses mani\u00e8res d'\u00e9conomiser de l'\u00e9nergie et les implications que l'on peut en tirer sur l'\u00e9conomie et les \"modes de vie\" (sujet qui occupe l'int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 du 5\u00e8 module du cours).\n\nUne des conclusions que j'en tire est que la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 est indissociable de la planification, c'est \u00e0 dire d'une vision de long terme conduisant \u00e0 mettre progressivement en place, de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9sir\u00e9e, des modes de vie moins consommateurs d'\u00e9nergie, ce qui a des implications profondes sur tout, dont l'emploi (voir le chapitre correspondant du Plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise : https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf ).\n\nCorr\u00e9lativement, la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \"d'urgence\" n'existe pas, puisque la r\u00e9action dans l'urgence face \u00e0 un \u00e9v\u00e9nement non anticip\u00e9 - ce qui est exactement ce qui nous arrive aujourd'hui - ne s'appelle pas vraiment une r\u00e9action planifi\u00e9e...\n\nEt, \u00e0 cause des limites g\u00e9ologiques sur l'approvisionnement en \u00e9nergie fossile, limites qui existent quand bien m\u00eame nous ne voudrions pas baisser notre consommation pour des raisons climatiques, les \u00e9conomies sont certaines \u00e0 l'avenir, sous une forme ou sous une autre. \n\nComme l'efficacit\u00e9 ne va pas assez vite - et n'ira pas assez vite \u00e0 l'avenir, pour des raisons physiques (rappelons que l'\u00e9nergie est avant tout une grandeur physique !) - pour permettre de la croissance verte (m\u00eame si la loi vot\u00e9e au parlement fran\u00e7ais \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque d'une certaine S\u00e9gol\u00e8ne affirme le contraire), le seul d\u00e9bat est de savoir si nous pr\u00e9f\u00e9rons la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 ou la pauvret\u00e9." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6974655135725559808,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6974655136400842752,urn:li:activity:6974655136400842752,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 62, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6974655136400842752,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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priorit\u00e9 pour les entreprises ? | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6974288533825953792,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'\u00e9t\u00e9 dernier comme le covid ont rappel\u00e9 \u00e0 notre m\u00e9moire, s'il en \u00e9tait besoin, d'une part que notre \u00e9conomie d\u00e9pend d\u00e9sormais de chaines de valeur dont le d\u00e9but est \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s syst\u00e9matiquement situ\u00e9 en dehors de nos fronti\u00e8res, et d'autre part que le syst\u00e8me climatique a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 nous sortir significativement de la stabilit\u00e9 qui pr\u00e9valait depuis des milliers d'ann\u00e9es et qui a permis le d\u00e9veloppement de notre civilisation s\u00e9dentaire.\n\nLa combinaison de ces deux facteurs fait qu'il n'est pas ais\u00e9, pour une entreprise, de savoir vers quoi s'orienter pour son activit\u00e9 future (et si c'est possible et \u00e0 quelles conditions), ni de savoir o\u00f9 pourraient prendre place des \"craquements\" dus \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive climatique et qui auront une r\u00e9percussion plus ou moins importante sur son activit\u00e9.\n\nCar une partie des encha\u00eenements ne rel\u00e8vera pas du lien direct. Exemple : s\u00e9cheresse en Chine -> d\u00e9faut de production \u00e9lectrique sur place -> baisse de la production d'une usine -> moins de composants export\u00e9s en Europe -> d\u00e9faut de production sur notre continent.\n\nAutre exemple : vagues de chaleur simultan\u00e9es dans plusieurs pays du monde -> prise de conscience -> volont\u00e9 d'acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer sur les nouvelles renouvelables partout au m\u00eame moment -> d\u00e9faut de disponibilit\u00e9 de certains composants -> forte hausse des prix et impossibilit\u00e9 de \"tenir le rythme\" qui avait \u00e9t\u00e9 souhait\u00e9.\n\nEt il ne faut pas oublier que, dans le m\u00eame temps, il va y avoir des probl\u00e8mes croissants de disponibilit\u00e9 locale ou r\u00e9gionale en p\u00e9trole et en gaz, pour des raisons g\u00e9ologiques (pour le p\u00e9trole c'est d\u00e8s maintenant : https://lnkd.in/dqWtnMPi ) ou logistiques.\n\nPour y voir clair dans les encha\u00eenements possibles, il faut une m\u00e9thode. \"Taper au hasard\" pour regarder ce qui pourrait dysfonctionner, et dans quelle mesure, ne garantit pas de voir tout ce qui est potentiellement majeur, et ne garantit pas une priorisation optimale des mesures \u00e0 entreprendre ensuite. \n\nLe 11 octobre prochain, Carbone 4 organise un webinaire pour pr\u00e9senter aux entreprises les m\u00e9thodes que nous avons d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es (notamment OCARA : https://lnkd.in/en6TuiVQ ) pour cartographier et qualifier les risques li\u00e9s aux impacts du changement climatique et \u00e0 leurs trajectoire d\u2019adaptation. 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rapporte un article tout juste paru dans Science, et qui inventorie les seuils de temp\u00e9rature au-del\u00e0 desquels pourraient se d\u00e9clencher des cons\u00e9quences irr\u00e9versibles (du moins \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle de mill\u00e9naires) de la d\u00e9rive climatique actuelle : https://bit.ly/3erengE\n\nToutes les cons\u00e9quences en question ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait l'objet de parutions scientifiques bien s\u00fbr, mais l'int\u00e9r\u00eat (si l'on peut dire) de cet article est de tout rassembler en un m\u00eame lieu.\n\nUn autre int\u00e9r\u00eat est de donner des fourchettes hautes et basses pour le d\u00e9clenchement des cons\u00e9quences, puisqu'il y a bien sur une incertitude sur les valeurs. Mais... il faut se garder de penser qu'une incertitude est une invitation \u00e0 l'inaction \"en attendant d'y voir plus clair\". C'est au contraire un signal d'alarme majeur. \n\nS'il y a une incertitude sur la pr\u00e9sence d'un cambrioleur meurtrier dans votre quartier, il est peu probable que votre r\u00e9flexe soit de laisser la porte grande ouverte \"en attendant d'y voir plus clair\". De m\u00eame, s'il y a une incertitude sur la pr\u00e9sence d'un camion en travers de la chauss\u00e9e apr\u00e8s un virage un jour de brouillard, il est peu probable que votre r\u00e9flexe soit d'appuyer encore plus fort sur l'acc\u00e9l\u00e9rateur. \n\nPourtant, avec l'incertitude sur les cons\u00e9quences, c'est l'inverse que nous choisissons de faire : de d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer en pariant sur le fait qu'il n'y aura pas de p\u00e9pin. Heu...\n\nDans les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9voqu\u00e9es dans cet article, les processus suivants pourraient prendre place avec le respect de l'Accord de Paris (\u00e9l\u00e9vation < 2\u00b0C) :\n- la fonte/d\u00e9sint\u00e9gration du Groenland, qui a probablement d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9marr\u00e9 (valeur centrale des estimations du seuil de d\u00e9clenchement = 1 \u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement) \n- la fonte/d\u00e9sint\u00e9gration de l'Antarctique de l'Ouest (cette partie de la calotte qui regarde le Chili et l'Argentine ; avec le Groenland on parle potentiellement de 6 \u00e0 9 m d'\u00e9l\u00e9vation du niveau de l'oc\u00e9an mondial en quelques si\u00e8cles\n- la mort de tous les coraux tropicaux (le dernier rapport du GIEC les voyait tous disparus \u00e0 2\u00b0C)\n- la fonte du permafrost\n- l'arr\u00eat du courant du Labrador.\n\nA un peu plus que 2\u00b0C (qui est ce que nous aurons en nous contentant d'attendre les pics de production du p\u00e9trole, du gaz et du charbon) nous entrons aussi dans la zone o\u00f9 une disparition de la for\u00eat \u00e9quatoriale amazonienne est possible (les mod\u00e8les climatiques voient un ass\u00e8chement de la zone \u00e0 2\u00b0C), un ralentissement ou arr\u00eat de la d\u00e9rive Nord Atlantique (improprement appel\u00e9e Gulf Stream mais c'est le courant qui r\u00e9chauffe l'Europe), et autres joyeuset\u00e9s.\n\nR\u00e9p\u00e9tons le : comme le changement climatique est une exp\u00e9rience grandeur nature, toutes les cons\u00e9quences ne sont pas pr\u00e9visibles \u00e0 l'avance. Mais elles sont toutes irr\u00e9versibles. 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"DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6973594079511093248,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Elle ne fait que 2% du PIB, mais elle nourrit 100% de la population, occupe 2/3 du territoire (p\u00e2turages inclus), entretient une biomasse animale (celle des bovins) du m\u00eame ordre que celle des fran\u00e7ais(es) - avec 15 millions de b\u00eates \u00e0 corne pesant en moyenne quelques centaines de kg - et engendre 20% de nos \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre.\n\nSi l'on regarde sa part dans l'\u00e9conomie, l'agriculture est un non sujet. Pire : pour rapidement \"cr\u00e9er de la valeur\" (expression plus que discutable !) qui attirera l'attention de la presse \u00e9conomique et des pouvoirs publics, mieux vaut faire des licornes pour d\u00e9velopper des jeux en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 virtuelle ou am\u00e9liorer un logiciel de trading (aucun des deux ne remplissant nos estomacs) que de d\u00e9marrer une exploitation agricole vertueuse. \n\nL'agriculture partage une caract\u00e9ristique avec le climat : pour qu'elle (re)devienne un sujet s\u00e9rieux, il faudra arr\u00eater de tout r\u00e9duire \u00e0 des indicateurs \u00e9conomiques, et revenir \u00e0 des indicateurs physiques - ceux qui comptaient le plus avant que nous ne devenions une civilisation d'urbains d\u00e9connect\u00e9s de ce qui se passe \"en dehors\".\n\nParce que ce secteur a beau repr\u00e9senter beaucoup moins que les t\u00e9l\u00e9coms ou la voiture dans le PIB, il se trouve \u00e0 la base de la pyramide de Maslow, et sans base une pyramide a du mal \u00e0 rester debout. Sans nourriture, adieu la start-up nation !\n\nOr, ce sujet de la production de nourriture est par ailleurs li\u00e9 \u00e0 l'actualit\u00e9 \"par tous les bouts\" : \u00e0 l'amont du champ, les combustibles fossiles servent \u00e0 fabriquer des engrais et \u00e0 alimenter des engins agricoles, et \u00e0 l'aval ils servent \u00e0 transporter les r\u00e9coltes jusqu'aux \u00e9levages ou usines de l'agroalimentaire, puis des usines aux magasins ; ils servent \u00e0 transformer et emballer... de telle sorte que la d\u00e9pendance de la chaine alimentaire aux hydrocarbures est massive.\n\nIl faut y rajouter les \"aleas climatiques\", qui sont de moins en moins des aleas et de plus en plus une nouvelle normalit\u00e9 : s\u00e9cheresses, gels alors que l'hiver doux a lanc\u00e9 la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation trop t\u00f4t, gr\u00eale, inondations parfois...\n\nIl est \u00e9videmment urgent de s'occuper du sujet, car les temps de transformation sont longs en agriculture. Pour voir des cultures ou animaux diff\u00e9rents, cultiv\u00e9s ou \u00e9lev\u00e9s diff\u00e9remment, transform\u00e9s et distribu\u00e9s diff\u00e9remment, \u00e0 des consommateurs qui vont devoir moins habiter en ville (car la ville ne peut \"vivre\" qu'avec des flux importants qui demandent une \u00e9nergie abondante) et qui auront des habitudes alimentaires diff\u00e9rentes, il va falloir des d\u00e9cennies. \n\nLa premi\u00e8re action qui attestera de la volont\u00e9 pr\u00e9sidentielle rapport\u00e9e par les Echos sera le nombre de personnes, leur qualit\u00e9 et leur temps disponible, qui vont plancher sur le sujet (et devoir discuter avec une administration europ\u00e9enne qui tient une partie importante des manettes). On ne devrait pas tarder \u00e0 avoir la r\u00e9ponse !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6973594079511093248,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6973594080366710784,urn:li:activity:6973594080366710784,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 191, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6973594080366710784,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6973594080366710784,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8338236121401341498)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theguardian.com \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Cost of living and climate are higher global priorities than Ukraine, poll finds by theguardian.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/06/cost-of-living-and-climate-crisis-more-of-a-global-priority-than-ukraine-invasion-poll" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Cost of living and climate are higher global priorities than Ukraine, poll finds" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6973345124302905344,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il a fait chaud et sec en Europe, mais pas que. Pour ne citer que deux autres exemples qui font l'actualit\u00e9, la Californie fait actuellement face \u00e0 une vague de chaleur intense avec incendies et coupures de courant \u00e0 la cl\u00e9 (https://bit.ly/3KU01la ), et la Chine a enregistr\u00e9 en ao\u00fbt la vague de chaleur la plus intense depuis le d\u00e9but des relev\u00e9s, et un de ses \u00e9t\u00e9s les plus secs (https://bit.ly/3eotcR3 ).\n\nIl n'est donc pas totalement \u00e9tonnant de voir le sujet climat arriver d\u00e9sormais de fa\u00e7on assez r\u00e9currente dans les priorit\u00e9s de t\u00eate des habitants de tr\u00e8s nombreux pays dans le monde (pas que des pays occidentaux).\n\nCertes l'inflation fait encore mieux actuellement (le sujet est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme l'un des trois plus importants du moment par la moiti\u00e9 des personnes interrog\u00e9es dans 20 pays diff\u00e9rents), mais le climat arrive derri\u00e8re, avec 36% des sond\u00e9s qui le mettent dans les 3 sujets les plus importants du moment (esp\u00e9rons que ca comprenne quelques supporters du PSG :) ).\n\nUne fois que l'on a dit cela, on a dit beaucoup et rien en m\u00eame temps. On a dit beaucoup, parce que dans les d\u00e9mocraties, qui constituent l'essentiel du panel analys\u00e9, il faut qu'un sujet devienne une pr\u00e9occupation d'une large fraction de la population pour qu'il remonte sur l'agenda politique. Donc que la population soit pr\u00e9occup\u00e9e par la chose est malheureusement un point de passage oblig\u00e9 pour que \"ca bouge\" \u00e0 l'\u00e9tage au-dessus.\n\nMais on a rien dit, puisque l'action n'a pas encore pris place. Du reste quand, face \u00e0 un probl\u00e8me, la bonne action pr\u00e9ventive ou corrective est en place, le niveau de pr\u00e9occupation sur le probl\u00e8me retombe en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral un peu.\n\nCe que dit donc ce sondage est donc que, \u00e0 tort ou \u00e0 raison (et en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral plus souvent \u00e0 raison qu'\u00e0 tort malheureusement), l'action n'est pas encore per\u00e7ue comme \u00e9tant \"au niveau de la menace\". \n\nLe paradoxe, mais qui est connu depuis longtemps, est que \u00e0 cause de l'inertie du syst\u00e8me industriel qui cause les \u00e9missions, et de certains param\u00e8tres du climat ou de la r\u00e9ponse des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes qui \u00e9voluent m\u00eame apr\u00e8s arr\u00eat des \u00e9missions, le passage \u00e0 l'action (donc la baisse des \u00e9missions) n'emp\u00eachera pas la situation de continuer \u00e0 se d\u00e9grader pendant \"un certain temps\" (il faut attendre l'arr\u00eat complet des \u00e9missions pour que la temp\u00e9rature s'arr\u00eate de monter, et pour certains param\u00e8tres - la mont\u00e9e de l'oc\u00e9an par exemple - il faudra attendre des mill\u00e9naires apr\u00e8s arr\u00eat des \u00e9missions pour que la d\u00e9rive s'arr\u00eate).\n\nIl faut donc pr\u00e9parer les opinions publiques \u00e0 agir sur les deux fronts de la baisse des \u00e9missions et de la pr\u00e9paration \u00e0 des cons\u00e9quences plus adverses, et il faut aussi la pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 ne pas se d\u00e9courager alors m\u00eame que le d\u00e9but de l'action n'att\u00e9nuera pas l'ampleur des cons\u00e9quences \u00e0 court terme.\n\nCa va demander une tr\u00e8s bonne compr\u00e9hension de ce que l'on peut promettre et ne pas promettre de la part des dirigeant(e)s. Le maintien d'une forme de stabilit\u00e9 politique sera aussi \u00e0 ce prix." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6973345124302905344,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6973345125192069120,urn:li:activity:6973345125192069120,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 31, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6973345125192069120,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6973345125192069120,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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recherche et d\u00e9veloppement dans les entreprises. Cela s'appelle le cr\u00e9dit imp\u00f4t recherche (CIR) et le cr\u00e9dit imp\u00f4t innovation. Le principe est le suivant : si une entreprise peut justifier qu'elle a financ\u00e9 des d\u00e9penses de R&D ou d'innovation avec un r\u00e9sultat qui n'\u00e9tait pas \"garanti \u00e0 l'avance\" (donc avec une prise de risque), l'Etat paye 20% (innovation) \u00e0 30% (recherche) des couts (https://bit.ly/3AThsOf ).\n\nUn certain nombre de personnes - dont votre serviteur - soutiennent que, si le projet de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 est de d\u00e9carboner l'\u00e9conomie, alors il faut rendre ce cr\u00e9dit imp\u00f4t recherche conditionnel sur la question du carbone.\n\nUne premi\u00e8re mani\u00e8re est de cr\u00e9er une taxonomie et de n'accorder ce cr\u00e9dit imp\u00f4t que pour des recherches qui visent \u00e0 am\u00e9liorer des objets qui sont r\u00e9put\u00e9s concourir \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation. Si l'on choisit cette r\u00e8gle, cela signifie que les recherches sur les pompes \u00e0 chaleur, les v\u00e9los \u00e9lectriques, le nucl\u00e9aire ou les mat\u00e9riaux d'isolation sont \u00e9ligibles, mais pas la recherche pour proposer une nouvelle gamme de boissons sucr\u00e9es ou de mobilier de salon.\n\nUne variante est de faire non point une liste verte mais une liste noire. A ce moment on exclut le CIR si l'entreprise qui le demande op\u00e8re dans certains champs d'activit\u00e9 (typiquement l'extraction ou l'utilisation de combustibles fossiles).\n\nCette r\u00e8gle a l'avantage d'une relative simplicit\u00e9 (l'administration fiscale dispose d'une liste \u00e9ligible ou d'une liste \u00e0 exclure, et v\u00e9rifie que l'entreprise s'occupe des bons produits ou services pour accorder le CIR). Elle a l'inconv\u00e9nient de ne pas garantir que les activit\u00e9s de l'entreprise substituent des usages carbon\u00e9s et non s'y rajoutent. \n\nPar exemple si on consid\u00e8re que les v\u00e9los sont d\u00e9carbonants, on ne s'occupe pas de savoir si les clients en ach\u00e8tent pour aller en faire le week-end (\u00e9ventuellement en utilisant d'abord une voiture !), sans effet sur la baisse des \u00e9missions, ou s'ils remplacent un engin motoris\u00e9 pour une partie des d\u00e9placements du quotidien.\n \nUne deuxi\u00e8me mani\u00e8re serait de demander \u00e0 l'entreprise qui r\u00e9clame le CIR de faire la preuve que ses produits substituent des usages plus carbon\u00e9s, quels que soient les produits ou services vendus. A ce compte l\u00e0, une entreprise qui vend des v\u00e9los \u00e0 des personnes qui s'en serviront pour ne pas prendre une voiture est \u00e9ligible, mais pas celle qui vend des v\u00e9los \u00e0 des personnes qui commenceront par le mettre dans la soute d'un avion pour aller se promener ailleurs. \n\nCette r\u00e8gle est bien plus complexe \u00e0 mettre en oeuvre, mais a pour but d'avoir une garantie sur le r\u00e9sultat. \n\nLes d\u00e9penses de R&D des entreprises conditionnent tr\u00e8s fortement ce qu'elles feront ou pas \u00e0 l'avenir. Leur dire que la collectivit\u00e9 ne les aide pas \u00e0 prendre de risques si leurs plans pour l'avenir ne sont pas compatibles avec la baisse des \u00e9missions serait juste une forme de bon sens." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6972803160851505152,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6972803161589747712,urn:li:activity:6972803161589747712,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 126, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6972803161589747712,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6972803161589747712,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6972449874449432576,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Et de deux : Eric Le Boucher, \u00e9ditorialiste aux Echos, rejoint les \"post-lib\u00e9raux\". Lui qui fut un grand d\u00e9fenseur du \"march\u00e9\" signe une tribune dans le quotidien de l'\u00e9conomie dans laquelle il prend acte du fait que, dans un certain nombre de domaines, cette mani\u00e8re de voir n'a pas amen\u00e9 le monde merveilleux. \n\nPrix qui font n'importe quoi (pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et le gaz c'\u00e9tait par ailleurs le sujet de ma chronique de Samedi dernier sur RTL : https://bit.ly/3THuUNA ), s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement non garantie, bulles sur les actifs, et pas plus de prise en compte du changement climatique qu'avant : la concurrence partout et tout le temps n'est donc pas le syst\u00e8me parfait qui permettrait de faire \u00e0 la fois une plan\u00e8te pr\u00e9serv\u00e9e, un cadre pr\u00e9visible et un consommateur combl\u00e9.\n\nMais alors, par quoi remplacer cette \"\u00e9conomie lib\u00e9rale\" qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 largement au centre de la production du monde acad\u00e9mique - et donc des politiques publiques - ces derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies ? Le Boucher fait le constat - que je partage - que pour le moment il n'y a pas de rel\u00e8ve th\u00e9orique. Il y a bien des promesses simplistes dans certains courants politiques, mais pas de syst\u00e8me \u00e9conomique conceptualis\u00e9 de A \u00e0 Z qui partirait d'hypoth\u00e8ses diff\u00e9rentes de celles qui alimentent aujourd'hui la pens\u00e9e dominante.\n\nEtonnamment, la pens\u00e9e lib\u00e9rale s'invite m\u00eame quand il s'agit de r\u00e9gler le probl\u00e8me caus\u00e9 par la pens\u00e9e en question ! Par exemple nombre d'\u00e9conomistes du changement climatique postulent que le bas prix des ENR aujourd'hui garantit leur disponibilit\u00e9 physique demain, ce qui est tr\u00e8s exactement la mani\u00e8re de voir pour tout bien qui pr\u00e9vaut en \u00e9conomie lib\u00e9rale (si les prix ont baiss\u00e9 hier alors la disponibilit\u00e9 physique croissante est garantie demain, mais on voit bien avec le pass\u00e9 r\u00e9cent que ce n'est pas aussi simple).\n\nLe Boucher ose aussi \u00e9crire \"Comme une \u00e9conomie d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e sera moins efficace et plus ch\u00e8re (sauf rupture technologique), la lutte pour le climat se r\u00e9sume en fait \u00e0 un probl\u00e8me social. Il va falloir enfin le dire clairement et ajouter que pour aider les plus fragiles, il faudra bien prendre l'argent ailleurs et o\u00f9.\"\n\nIl a tout \u00e0 fait raison, puisque le carbone c'est notre costume d'Ironman qui rend l'\u00e9conomie efficace (c'est-\u00e0-dire productive). C'est l'impens\u00e9 des Nations Unies qui, avec les 17 objectifs du d\u00e9veloppement durable, affirment explicitement que nous aurons de la croissance verte (l'objectif 8 c'est la croissance \u00e9conomique). \n\nPenser l'\u00e9conomie autrement demande donc de repartir des axiomes de d\u00e9part et d'en prendre d'autres (en particulier d'int\u00e9grer explicitement les ressources physiques dans la fonction de production). Il s'agit donc de rien moins que de mettre bas l'essentiel de la litt\u00e9rature acad\u00e9mique pass\u00e9e pour repartir sur de nouvelles bases. La question est : aurons nous le temps de th\u00e9oriser ce qu'il faut faire avant de nous lancer dans l'action ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6972449874449432576,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6972449875397341184,urn:li:activity:6972449875397341184,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 177, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6972449875397341184,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6972449875397341184,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7810250240110896438)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theguardian.com \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Why are we feeding crops to our cars when people are starving? | George Monbiot by theguardian.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/30/crops-cars-starving-biofuels-climate-sustainable" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Why are we feeding crops to our cars when people are starving? | George Monbiot" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6972131755164110848,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'article date d'il y a 2 mois, mais apr\u00e8s l'\u00e9t\u00e9 que nous venons de vivre il n'est peut-\u00eatre pas inutile de le recycler. Dans cette tribune de George Monbiot, un \u00e9ditorialiste du Guardian qui m\u00eale r\u00e9f\u00e9rences pr\u00e9cises et style incisif, il est question de la pertinence de d\u00e9velopper les \"biocarburants\" dans nos strat\u00e9gies de lutte contre le changement climatique.\n\nSur les terres \u00e9merg\u00e9es de la plan\u00e8te, nous pouvons y avoir les usages suivants, qui en pratique s'excluent mutuellement :\n- produire des v\u00e9g\u00e9taux que nous mangerons, ou que nous donnerons \u00e0 manger \u00e0 des animaux que nous mangerons (ou pas : la viande pour nourrir des animaux de compagnie - et ce ne sont pas que des \"rebuts de l'alimentation humaine\" qui y passent - n'est pas n\u00e9gligeable en occident)\n- produire des mat\u00e9riaux ou mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res non alimentaires (bois, lin, coton, chanvre, pois ou pommes de terre pour la chimie de l'amidon, etc)\n- avoir de l'\u00e9nergie : bois \u00e9nergie, m\u00e9thanisation - les allemands ont massivement d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 cela - et agrocarburants\n- enfin \"fiche la paix \u00e0 ce qui s'y trouve\", qui s'appelle pr\u00e9server la biodiversit\u00e9.\n\nLocalement certains usages peuvent \u00e9videmment \u00eatre mixtes (agriculture ou foresterie et biodiversit\u00e9 par exemple).\n\nDe ce fait, tout ce qui est utilis\u00e9 pour l'\u00e9nergie est autant en moins pour les autres usages. Cela pose d'inextricables probl\u00e8mes de m\u00e9thode pour calculer le contenu en gaz \u00e0 effet de serre de ces agrocarburants, incidemment. Sur une plan\u00e8te qui continue \u00e0 d\u00e9forester, faut-il imputer \u00e0 tout ajout marginal de cultures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques les \u00e9missions de la d\u00e9forestation marginale par exemple ?\n\nCe qui est sur, c'est que 40% du ma\u00efs US (13% du ma\u00efs mondial) finit sa vie dans un r\u00e9servoir de voiture, et que cela est aussi valable pour une fraction du bl\u00e9, du tournesol, du colza, du palme, ou de la canne \u00e0 sucre et des betteraves \u00e0 sucre. Si, au lieu de mettre 10% d'agrocarburants dans ce que nous achetons \u00e0 la pompe, on for\u00e7ait les voitures \u00e0 consommer 10% de moins, ca ne changerait pas la face de nos d\u00e9placements, et cela \u00e9viterait de mobiliser des surfaces majeures pour nos machines \u00e0 roulettes ou \u00e0 ailettes (le secteur a\u00e9rien compte massivement sur les agrocarburants pour faire de la \"croissance verte\", mais les ordres de grandeur n'y seront pas).\n\nComme le rappelle tr\u00e8s bien cet article, les politiques de promotion des agrocarburants n'ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 mises en place pour des raisons environnementales. Elles datent de l'\u00e9poque des surplus agricoles qui d\u00e9primaient les prix. \n\nAlors que le changement climatique va diminuer les rendements des cultures, la meilleure mani\u00e8re de baisser la consommation d'\u00e9nergie fossile des transports est de baisser leur consommation d'\u00e9nergie tout court. V\u00e9lo sous toutes ses formes, petites voitures \u00e9lectriques et moins nombreuses, camions \u00e9lectriques et bus et train doivent faire l'essentiel le plus vite possible. Dans https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf, il n'y a pas d'agrocarburants \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle. 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Et fin ao\u00fbt ce livre occupait la 6\u00e8 place au sein des ouvrages les plus achet\u00e9s dans le pays, avec plus de 80.000 exemplaires \u00e9coul\u00e9s depuis la parution.\n\nIl faut savoir que dans notre pays un essai qui est un \"carton\" totalise 100.000 exemplaires payants ou plus. Avec les niveaux actuels de ventes hebdomadaires (qui ne vont pas plus tomber \u00e0 z\u00e9ro demain matin que les \u00e9missions de CO2 plan\u00e9taires), c'est tr\u00e8s probablement un seuil que nous allons d\u00e9passer. \n\nLorsque ce livre a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9, nous avions avant tout pour objectif de pouvoir offrir un \"souvenir\" \u00e0 toutes les personnes qui ont contribu\u00e9 au financement participatif qui a permis d'avoir les moyens de r\u00e9aliser le PTEF, soit quelques milliers d'individus. Je pensais que la vente \"grand public\" \u00e0 des \"non donateurs\" se monterait \u00e0 quelques milliers d'exemplaires suppl\u00e9mentaires, c'est-\u00e0-dire l'ordre de grandeur de la diffusion du \"Manifeste pour D\u00e9carboner l'Europe\" que nous avions publi\u00e9 quelques ann\u00e9es auparavant.\n\nQuelques milliers d'exemplaires vendus, c'est ce que j'ai eu pour mon premier essai (https://lnkd.in/eGXHDmU3 ), et c'est aussi la diffusion moyenne d'un livre dans notre pays tous genres confondus. Pour un ouvrage collectif (l'auteur du livre est \"The Shift Project\"), je n'escomptais pas beaucoup plus.\n\nPour une fois, je suis ravi d'avoir fait une grosse erreur d'appr\u00e9ciation. Car cela signifie que le sujet est fortement mont\u00e9 en puissance depuis la publication du \"Manifeste pour D\u00e9carboner l'Europe\". En effet, si l'on prend les m\u00eames auteurs (le Shift Project avec une pr\u00e9face de votre serviteur), le m\u00eame th\u00e8me (la d\u00e9carbonation), et le m\u00eame mode de diffusion (le livre), et qu'en 5 ans de temps les ventes sont multipli\u00e9es par 20, c'est que le fait g\u00e9n\u00e9rateur est externe aux auteurs. \n\nDe quoi est-il question dans ce livre, pour celles et ceux qui ne l'ont pas lu ? De sobri\u00e9t\u00e9. C'est-\u00e0-dire d'une diminution planifi\u00e9e (et donc souhait\u00e9e en d\u00e9mocratie) des flux physiques qui sont \u00e0 l'origine d'une pression excessive sur notre maison commune, une certaine plan\u00e8te Terre. \n\nAvec ce livre, nous proposons une approche (parler d'\u00e9conomie sous l'angle des flux physiques et des emplois avant de parler d'euros) dont nous esp\u00e9rons qu'elle sera vue comme pertinente pour r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 la mani\u00e8re de \"sortir par le haut\" de la situation - pas simple - dans laquelle nous sommes.\n\nCe livre va avec un site internet baptis\u00e9 \"il nous faut un plan\" : https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf. 6 mois apr\u00e8s sa sortie, il reste \u00e9videmment d'une actualit\u00e9 br\u00fblante." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:ugcPost:6971795082022633472,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"text": "\"la question du pouvoir d'achat (...) tr\u00f4ne au centre de toutes les pr\u00e9occupations\", \u00e9crivent Les Echos dans un article r\u00e9alis\u00e9 \u00e0 partir d'un sondage men\u00e9 aupr\u00e8s de nos concitoyen(ne)s. \n\nReprenons depuis le d\u00e9but : en \u00e9conomie, le pouvoir d'achat correspond \u00e0 \"la quantit\u00e9 de biens et de services qu\u2019un revenu permet d\u2019acheter\" (https://bit.ly/33SRrMZ ).\n\nMais... pour \"pouvoir acheter\", il faut que des biens et services aient \u00e9t\u00e9 produits. Il faut alors des ressources naturelles pour fabriquer fourchettes et cartables, jouets pour Noel et chemises, voitures et immeubles, rouges \u00e0 l\u00e8vres et papier toilette, et il faut des machines pour transformer ces ressources bien plus puissamment que nos muscles (voir https://bit.ly/3KGa7pC ou relire Le Monde sans Fin !). \n\nM\u00eame les services sont d\u00e9pendants de substrats mat\u00e9riels (typiquement l'ordinateur sur lequel je tape ce post) et ont un \"contenu mati\u00e8re et \u00e9nergie\".\n\nRegardons maintenant devant nous. La machinerie mondiales utilise avant tout du p\u00e9trole, du gaz et du charbon. Que ce soit pour des raisons climatiques, ou par \u00e9puisement des ressources, ces \"croquettes pour machines\" vont devoir baisser. Idem pour les m\u00e9taux (les mines sont \u00e9puisables), les esp\u00e8ces vivantes, sans lesquelles l'appareil productif s'arr\u00eate, et avec les produits et services disponibles. Le \"pouvoir d'achat\" va donc fatalement baisser (par inflation ou par p\u00e9nurie) en tendance \u00e0 l'avenir.\n\nLorsqu'un indicateur que nous aimerions voir monter doit baisser, il est sage d'arr\u00eater de se focaliser dessus. Par quoi, alors, remplacer ce fichu pouvoir d'achat, qui va nous donner quelques sueurs froides \u00e0 un horizon proche ?\n\nUn certain nombre d'organisations - syndicales, associatives, mutualistes - ont propos\u00e9 le concept de \"pouvoir de vivre\", qui tient compte de 66 crit\u00e8res, certains \u00e9conomiques, mais beaucoup sociaux et environnementaux (https://bit.ly/3ehl8ll ). \n\nDans le contexte actuel, cette d\u00e9marche para\u00eet tout \u00e0 fait sens\u00e9e. Si l'on inclut dans nos objectifs le \"pouvoir voir un arbre\" (ce qui est bon pour le moral, les \u00e9tudes le montrent), \"pouvoir respirer un air correct\", \"pouvoir compter sur ses voisins\", \"pouvoir avoir le sentiment d'\u00eatre reconnu\", \"pouvoir disposer d'un climat pas trop d\u00e9r\u00e9gl\u00e9\", etc, et pas juste \"pouvoir acheter un smartphone plus gros\" ou \"pouvoir acheter une bouteille de coca\", il doit \u00eatre possible de faire un indicateur qui lui montera alors m\u00eame que nous allons devoir devenir sobres.\n\nMais il ne suffit pas d'un concept pour aller de l'avant : il faut aussi des outils pratiques. Comment pond\u00e9rer la vue sur un arbre vs. l'achat d'un kinder bueno (not\u00e9 E au nutriscore) ? Comment \u00e9tablir des comptes individuels (ce que l'argent permet) avec ce concept et en faire un indicateur d'arbitrage au quotidien ? Voici qui devrait urgemment inspirer un millier de th\u00e8ses en \"\u00e9conomie\" dans notre pays. Car, sans proposition pratique, il sera h\u00e9las impossible d'avancer avant de subir." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6971378046054367233,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6971378047006478336,urn:li:activity:6971378047006478336,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 137, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6971378047006478336,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6971378047006478336,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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L'urgence du jour est moins de se mettre \u00e0 d\u00e9carboner pour raisons climatiques que pour raisons poutinesques, avec un prix du gaz qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 multipli\u00e9 par 10 en un an sur le march\u00e9 de gros.\n\nMais les mesures \u00e0 prendre \u00e9tant sur le fond les m\u00eames que la cause soit la p\u00e9nurie \u00e0 venir ou le besoin de limiter nos \u00e9missions, le gouvernement s'est empar\u00e9 du sujet au point d'en faire un des \u00e9l\u00e9ments forts de son s\u00e9minaire de rentr\u00e9e. Val\u00e9rie Masson-Delmotte a eu droit \u00e0 une demi-heure lors de cette r\u00e9union minist\u00e9rielle, ce qui est beaucoup pour ce genre d'\u00e9v\u00e9nement, mais seulement un quaranti\u00e8me du temps minimum qu'il faudrait que le gouvernement consacre \u00e0 comprendre le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter, comme je le rappelle dans cette intervention de 15 minutes (ce qui est beaucoup pour la t\u00e9l\u00e9 et tr\u00e8s insuffisant sur le fond !) dans l'\u00e9mission C \u00e0 Vous, juste avant que l'on parle des d\u00e9boires d'un footballeur en vue :)\n\nCar dans ce s\u00e9minaire il manquera un point central : l'expos\u00e9 du lien entre flux physiques et \u00e9conomie, dit autrement entre \u00e9nergie et \u00e9conomie (il y a aussi le facteur limitant de toutes les ressources physiques - comme par exemple les m\u00e9taux, les esp\u00e8ces vivantes ou les sols - dans l'affaire).\n\nFaute d'avoir compris ce lien, qui oblige \u00e0 ce que nous r\u00e9glions le probl\u00e8me climatique (\u00e0 la fois pour limiter les \u00e9missions et pour nous \"adapter\") dans une \u00e9conomie qui va se contracter, la r\u00e9ponse du gouvernement va \u00eatre qu'il a bien compris le probl\u00e8me mais que nous allons faire de la croissance verte (ce qui est du reste exactement ce qu'a dit Elisabeth BORNE lors de son discours \u00e0 l'universit\u00e9 d'\u00e9t\u00e9 du MEDEF).\n\nIl n'y a pas 36 moyens pour que le gouvernement poursuive dans la voie de la compr\u00e9hension des limites physiques : que cela soit un enjeu \u00e9lectoral. Car un gouvernement en d\u00e9mocratie arbitre des rapports de force. 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}, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L'info march\u00e9 du jour La production de ma\u00efs de l'UE devrait passer sous les 60 Mt by terre-net.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.terre-net.fr/marche-agricole/actualite-marche-agricole/article/la-production-de-mais-de-l-ue-est-rabaissee-a-59-6-mt-1395-210650.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'info march\u00e9 du jour La production de ma\u00efs de l'UE devrait passer sous les 60 Mt" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6970687244588175360,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Si la s\u00e9cheresse n'a pas eu d'effet n\u00e9gatif majeur sur la r\u00e9colte de bl\u00e9 tendre en France ou dans l'Union europ\u00e9enne, qui se situe \u00e0 un niveau proche de la moyenne (https://bit.ly/3ebVtdL ), il n'en va pas de m\u00eame pour un certain nombre d'autres cultures :\n- le ma\u00efs fera 15% de moins que d'habitude\n- les pommes de terre feront 20% \u00e0 50% de moins (https://bit.ly/3pY4oSt ),\n- les pommes tout court feront aussi moins bien (https://bit.ly/3AC7KPY ),\n- et bien sur le foin et le fourrage pour les animaux, sur lesquels il y a aussi un d\u00e9ficit.\n\nA court terme, on peut dire que le probl\u00e8me n'est \"que\" \u00e9conomique. La plan\u00e8te produit encore assez pour nourrir tout le monde - \u00e9ventuellement avec moins de viande - et, surtout, l'abondance des transports permet la r\u00e9partition mondiale de ce qui pousse.\n\nMais \u00e0 plus long terme, d'une part la pression va augmenter sur les cultures parce que la d\u00e9rive climatique va s'intensifier, et d'autre part et surtout la d\u00e9crue p\u00e9troli\u00e8re signifiera une d\u00e9crue de la mondialisation (car cette derni\u00e8re c'est des cargos et des camions), et donc des transferts potentiellement importants de nourriture entre zones \u00e9loign\u00e9es. \n\nComprendre que les deux sujets vont nous contraindre \"en m\u00eame temps\" est un enjeu pour le pouvoir politique (et m\u00eame pour tout d\u00e9cideur \u00e9conomique). C'est une excellente nouvelle que Val\u00e9rie Masson Delmotte aille faire un \"cours de climat\" ce matin au gouvernement (https://bit.ly/3wErO2X ), mais il aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 pertinent d'avoir au m\u00eame moment un expos\u00e9 sur les contraintes \"amont\" (d'\u00e9nergie et de mat\u00e9riaux) pour comprendre deux choses :\n\n- la contrainte amont interdit \u00e0 elle seule de r\u00eaver \u00e0 une \"sortie par la croissance verte\" de la contrainte aval (le changement climatique et la pollution en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral).\n\n- le prix d'hier ne garantit en rien la disponibilit\u00e9 de demain (ni pour les denr\u00e9es agricoles - qui en France nous coutent 2% du PIB - ni pour l'\u00e9nergie- le prix d'hier ne garantit en rien la disponibilit\u00e9 de demain (ni pour les denr\u00e9es agricoles - qui en France nous coutent 2% du PIB - ni pour l'\u00e9nergie, ni pour rien qui se mesure en tonnes ou en litres en fait).\n\nRappelons que le GIEC consid\u00e8re qu'\u00e0 partir de 2\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement global il y a un risque s\u00e9rieux d'ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 alimentaire g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e. Une division par deux des productions ne ferait pas juste baisser le PIB mondial de 1% au motif que l'agriculture n'en repr\u00e9sente que 2%. Ca va \u00eatre un peu diff\u00e9rent de ca..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6970687244588175360,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6970687245448003584,urn:li:activity:6970687245448003584,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 64, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6970687245448003584,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6970687245448003584,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6970687245448003584", 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Dans les engagements pris par l'entreprise - qui comporte 2 des 3 radios les plus \u00e9cout\u00e9es de France : France Inter et France Info - figure celui-ci : \"Radio France lance le plus grand plan de formation de son histoire \u00e0 destination de ses journalistes, ses producteurs et \u00e9quipes de production, et ses animateurs, sur les questions climatiques et scientifiques. Nous changeons de philosophie : l\u2019environnement et la science ne seront pas l\u2019affaire des seuls journalistes sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9s, ils constitueront le socle de connaissances indispensables mobilisables par toutes nos \u00e9quipes \u00e9ditoriales.\"\n\nCette id\u00e9e que la compr\u00e9hension physique du monde est aussi n\u00e9cessaire au journaliste que de parler correctement fran\u00e7ais, parce que les media sont des facteurs majeurs d'orientation des d\u00e9bats soci\u00e9taux (voir les 5 premiers articles de https://bit.ly/3Tl9Dt7 ), est un vieux combat.\n\nIl y a 17 ans d\u00e9sormais, je m'\u00e9tais lanc\u00e9 avec Herv\u00e9 le Treut (un physicien \"climatologue\"), Jean Louis Caffier (alors r\u00e9dacteur en chef sur LCI), et Laurent Ancenay (alors directeur de l'office du tourisme de Combloux) dans la mise sur pied des \"Entretiens de Combloux\" (https://bit.ly/3RpuZnn ). \n\nIl s'agissait \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque d'une initiative un peu Don quichottesque : cr\u00e9er une \u00e9cole d'hiver pour responsables de r\u00e9daction pour leur donner les bases scientifiques et techniques du dossier \u00e9nergie climat, parce que ces sujets \u00e9tant syst\u00e9miques ils se retrouvent partout, au sport comme \u00e0 l'\u00e9conomie, aux faits divers comme \u00e0 la politique, \u00e0 l'actualit\u00e9 internationale comme \u00e0 l'am\u00e9nagement du territoire. \n\nEn bref, nous poursuivions exactement ce que Radio France a d\u00e9sormais comme objectif : faire comprendre \u00e0 tout journaliste de quoi il retourne afin qu'il puisse faire le lien avec son sujet propre, et correctement g\u00e9rer les interfaces (la fameuse \"coh\u00e9rence !\") avec les sujets de ses coll\u00e8gues.\n\nJe me rappelle qu'\u00e0 l'\u00e9poque (nous avons arr\u00eat\u00e9 en 2019) il fallait aller chercher les participant(e)s un par un \u00e0 la force du poignet, que c'\u00e9tait dur de les faire venir, en particulier les \"grands chefs\" (\"pas le temps\", \"pas mon sujet\", \"pas besoin\", \"nous n'acceptons pas de venir dans des manifestations gratuites parce que ca veut dire que vous \u00eates sous influence de vos financeurs\", etc...). \n\nIl fallait aussi aller chercher quelques milliers d'euros \u00e0 la force du poignet aupr\u00e8s des sponsors (et ca tenait beaucoup \u00e0 quelques individus souhaitant nous donner un coup de pouce \u00e0 hauteur de leurs possibilit\u00e9s budg\u00e9taires autonomes ; c'\u00e9tait aussi assez dur de convaincre sur l'enjeu de la formation des journalistes, m\u00eame \u00e0 l'Ademe...), lesquels sponsors ne pouvaient \u00e9videmment pas \u00eatre des \u00e9nerg\u00e9ticiens.\n\nIl aura donc fallu 17 ans pour que nous passions de cet artisanat des d\u00e9buts \u00e0 \"quelque chose\" qui commence \u00e0 \u00eatre \u00e0 la hauteur des enjeux. Bravo, mais il \u00e9tait temps." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6970323329744314368,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6970323330826444800,urn:li:activity:6970323330826444800,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 204, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6970323330826444800,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6970323330826444800,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6970323330826444800", "threadId": 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Le discours est muet l\u00e0-dessus) \"est appel\u00e9e \u00e0 \u00e9tablir, en septembre, son propre plan de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9\" (\"est appel\u00e9e\" = doit sous peine de sanctions ou bien ca serait juste bien qu'elle le fasse ? ce n'est pas pr\u00e9cis\u00e9)\n\n- qu'il est possible qu'un rationnement soit organis\u00e9 si les efforts volontaires ne sont pas suffisants (comprendre \"si il n'y a de toute fa\u00e7on pas assez il faudra bien que l'on fasse avec\")\n\n- qu'en pareil cas \"les entreprises seraient les premi\u00e8res touch\u00e9es\" (ce qui signifie que le choix du gouvernement est de commencer par affaiblir la production plut\u00f4t que la consommation des m\u00e9nages)\n\n- que la d\u00e9croissance n'est pas la solution (pourtant c'est bien la d\u00e9croissance de la consommation d'\u00e9nergie, donc des machines au travail, que Borne demande !)\n\n- dans la foul\u00e9e, que la planification \u00e9cologique est une nouvelle croissance (ah les charmes secrets de la croissance verte...)\n\n- que le gouvernement va proposer un \"plan global et complet\" pour avancer sur la d\u00e9carbonation (au passage il y a quelques centaines de personnes qui y ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9fl\u00e9chi... : https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf )\n\n- que les 3 premiers volets concerneront la for\u00eat, l'agriculture et les \u00e9nergies d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es (normalement dans un livre complet on ne publie pas les 3 premiers chapitres avant les autres...).\n\nL'essentiel du discours rel\u00e8ve cependant des d\u00e9clarations d'intention. Il n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9voqu\u00e9 l'acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de mesures de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 pure :\n- limitation de la temp\u00e9rature de consigne \n- limitation de vitesse \u00e0 110 sur les autoroutes, covoiturage, mobilit\u00e9s actives\n- baisse du trafic a\u00e9rien...\n\nDans son discours Borne parle \"d\u2019arr\u00eater d\u00e8s maintenant toutes les consommations d\u2019\u00e9nergie qui ne sont pas indispensables\". Il se trouve que cela recouvre malheureusement l'essentiel de ce que nous avons. En effet, il n'est \"pas indispensable\" d'avoir 40 m2 habitables par personne (on peut vivre dans moins), un peu plus d'une voiture d'une tonne et quelques par m\u00e9nage (il fut un temps o\u00f9 l'on faisait sans), un placard plein de v\u00eatements, un abonnement Netflix, un grille pain, un aspirateur, des vacances en location ou des jouets \u00e0 No\u00ebl. L'essentiel de ce qui fait tourner l'\u00e9conomie rel\u00e8ve aujourd'hui du d\u00e9sir solvable. Une des grandes difficult\u00e9s de l'\u00e9poque \u00e0 venir sera de nous accorder sur ce qui est \"indispensable\" ou pas." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6970116845529874433,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6970116846364598272,urn:li:activity:6970116846364598272,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 329, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6970116846364598272,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6970116846364598272,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8661777549179331323)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L'Etat du Texas boycotte BNP Paribas et d'autres banques jug\u00e9es trop \u00ab vertes \u00bb by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/etats-unis/letat-du-texas-boycotte-bnp-paribas-et-dautres-banques-jugees-trop-vertes-1783860#" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Etat du Texas boycotte BNP Paribas et d'autres banques jug\u00e9es trop \u00ab\u00a0vertes\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6969759229691711488,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "D\u00e9cid\u00e9ment, vouloir \u00eatre une banque \"verte\" n'est pas un m\u00e9tier de tout repos. En Europe, les banques se font malmener par les ONG qui les accusent de ne pas prendre leurs distances assez vite avec l'industrie des combustibles fossiles.\n\nMais voil\u00e0-t-y pas que le Texas vient de d\u00e9cider de rendre la vie dure aux m\u00eames banques... pour la raison exactement inverse. Dans cet \u00e9tat qui h\u00e9berge la premi\u00e8re production de p\u00e9trole des USA, le grief est au contraire de ne pas aimer assez les p\u00e9troliers !\n\nLe Texas (par la voix de son contr\u00f4leur financier) a donc demand\u00e9 aux fonds de pension g\u00e9r\u00e9s par l'Etat de ne plus souscrire \u00e0 des produits propos\u00e9s par les banques ou les gestionnaires d'actifs mis \u00e0 l'index. \n\nL\u00e0 o\u00f9 cela commence \u00e0 devenir franchement cocasse, c'est que le patron de BlackRock, plus gros gestionnaire d'actif au monde, et qui il y a un peu plus d'un an se r\u00e9pandait partout en expliquant qu'il voulait devenir \"compatible accord de Paris\", explique d\u00e9sormais combien il aime le p\u00e9trole en donnant les montants des investissements r\u00e9alis\u00e9s par sa soci\u00e9t\u00e9 dans les op\u00e9rateurs texans.\n\nCela confirme une chose : ce sont bien les \u00e9tats qui in fine d\u00e9cident des r\u00e8gles dans cette histoire, pas les entreprises ni les financiers. Les bonnes r\u00e8gles comme les mauvaises." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6969759229691711488,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6969759230367035392,urn:li:activity:6969759230367035392,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 113, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6969759230367035392,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6969759230367035392,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6969759230367035392", 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7571690948573030578)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Les prix alimentaires enregistrent des hausses spectaculaires by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/conso-distribution/les-prix-alimentaires-enregistrent-des-hausses-spectaculaires-1783518" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les prix alimentaires enregistrent des hausses spectaculaires" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6969343488895115264,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'inflation est dans tous les esprits. Elle concerne l'\u00e9nergie, certes, mais aussi la nourriture (pour des causes qui ne sont pas uniquement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques : s\u00e9cheresse et grippe aviaire jouent aussi leur r\u00f4le).\n\nToutefois, en s\u00e9rie longue, les prix actuels de la nourriture sont, dans les pays occidentaux, ridiculement bas compar\u00e9s \u00e0 ce qu'ils \u00e9taient il y a un si\u00e8cle. Le graphique en commentaire - effectu\u00e9 avec des donn\u00e9es du d\u00e9partement US de l'agriculture, mais l'\u00e9volution en France a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s identique, parce que les d\u00e9terminants sont les m\u00eames - donne la part du revenu disponible que les m\u00e9nages am\u00e9ricains consacrent \u00e0 l'achat de nourriture, au domicile (en vert clair) et en dehors du domicile (restaurants, fast-food, etc ; en bleu).\n\nOn voit que la nourriture au domicile, qui repr\u00e9sentait un cinqui\u00e8me du revenu disponible des m\u00e9nages am\u00e9ricains en 1929, ne repr\u00e9sentait en 2021 plus que 5%. Alors que la quantit\u00e9 de viande mang\u00e9e par an a doubl\u00e9 environ, le budget alimentaire (hors restaurants) a \u00e9t\u00e9 divis\u00e9 par 4. Merci le p\u00e9trole, le charbon et le gaz :)\n\nCe qui va faire mal, dans cette histoire, n'est pas de payer la nourriture un peu plus cher. En faisant un peu le m\u00e9nage dans nos achats (Les Echos rappellent que les produits les plus achet\u00e9s sont des boissons et du Nutella) on y arrivera. C'est la fin de l'illusion collective que nous avons d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e (merci les \u00e9conomistes) que les prix alimentaires (et les autres) seraient \u00e9ternellement de plus en plus bas, lib\u00e9rant ainsi une fraction de plus en plus importante de notre revenu pour \"autre chose\" (des t\u00e9l\u00e9phones, des loisirs, de la mobilit\u00e9, des v\u00eatements, etc).\n\nMalheureusement il faut se rappeler que la baisse des couts, ce sont essentiellement les machines - donc l'\u00e9nergie - qui l'ont permise. L'avenir sera donc pour partie le pass\u00e9. Dans un monde sobre en \u00e9nergie, la productivit\u00e9 va baisser, ce qui sera une bonne nouvelle pour l'emploi et une mauvaise pour le pouvoir d'achat. \n\nAvec moins de machines, la nourriture, comme le reste des produits de consommation, va valoir en tendance plus cher (en particulier dans les villes, parce que le transport \u00e0 l'\u00e8re de la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique sera plus rare donc plus cher), surtout si l'on rajoute la pression climatique. Les banquiers centraux qui veulent contenir l'inflation (https://bit.ly/3AvumBI ) n'ont pas fini de se gratter la t\u00eate !\n\nLa r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 cette inflation va donc s'appeler r\u00e9organiser nos achats vers plus de produits bruts et refaire la cuisine. Mais par ricochet cela va modifier beaucoup d'autres morceaux de l'\u00e9conomie : l'emploi dans l'agroalimentaire, la distribution, les transports, la fabrication d'emballage, mais aussi... dans les media. Car un secteur agroalimentaire plus petit aura moins de budgets pour la pub, ce qui fera moins de recette pour la presse audiovisuelle." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6969343488895115264,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6969343489759186944,urn:li:activity:6969343489759186944,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 93, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6969343489759186944,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6969343489759186944,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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depuis le d\u00e9but, est de croire \u00e0 quelque chose qui n'est pas encore visible, et, pire encore, de tout faire pour que cette chose n'advienne jamais.\n\nMais voil\u00e0 : nous avons tous un petit c\u00f4t\u00e9 Saint Thomas. Pour croire, il faut voir. Il semblerait, selon ce sondage rapport\u00e9 par RTL, que l'\u00e9t\u00e9 qui va s'achever dans 3 semaines ait \"converti\" quelques anciens non croyants \u00e0 la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de la question climatique.\n\nLa bonne nouvelle, selon ce sondage, est que pour un certain nombre de mesures la fraction de la population pr\u00eate \u00e0 l'action serait d\u00e9sormais plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que celle qui est r\u00e9tive. \n\nAinsi ne plus utiliser sa voiture (20% de notre empreinte carbone en moyenne : https://lnkd.in/esz53Kbx) pour les trajets du quotidien (qui font environ 2/3 des kilom\u00e8tres ; les loisirs repr\u00e9sentant le dernier tiers) serait accept\u00e9 par 49% de nos concitoyen(ne)s contre 32% qui ne le veulent pas. \n\nArr\u00eater les vid\u00e9os en streaming (le digital \u2248 4% de l'empreinte carbone mondiale, et la vid\u00e9o c'est plus de la moiti\u00e9) serait acceptable pour 48% de la population, contre 30% qui le refuserait. M\u00eame ne plus consommer de viande (environ 10% de l'empreinte carbone) recueille une courte majorit\u00e9 relative (36% d\u2019acceptation contre 32% de refus). \n\nOn est un peu plus r\u00e9tif quand on gagne peu ou que l'on est class\u00e9 \"\u00e0 droite\" sur l'\u00e9chiquier politique, mais 41% des r\u00e9pondant(e)s d\u00e9clarent vouloir augmenter leurs efforts apr\u00e8s cet \u00e9t\u00e9. \n\nPour celles et ceux que cela int\u00e9resse, il existe un outil (gratuit pour le grand public) pour d\u00e9couvrir \"en groupe\" (un peu en mode carboniques anonymes !) son empreinte carbone et voir comment agir pour la faire baisser : https://www.myco2.fr/\n\nDans les \u00e9l\u00e9ments qui sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme importants pour passer \u00e0 l'action par beaucoup de peuples, il y a le fait que les gens autour de soi s'engagent en m\u00eame temps (item \"one's community also changing behavior\" dans l'image du post https://bit.ly/3CBtIW8 ). Cet \u00e9l\u00e9ment est un peu moins fort dans les pays individualistes (les USA, l'Australie, et.... la France :) ), mais globalement il est important, tout comme l'\u00e9quit\u00e9 quand on demande des efforts.\n\nTout le principe de MyCO2 est justement de d\u00e9couvrir son empreinte carbone en groupe, donc en faisant d\u00e9j\u00e0 partie d'une petite communaut\u00e9 (certes de circonstance mais quand m\u00eame), et de pouvoir ensuite discuter ouvertement de la facilit\u00e9 ou difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 passer \u00e0 l'action.\n\nCela n'exon\u00e8re \u00e9videmment pas les pouvoirs publics de \"faire leur part\". Ces derniers ont le r\u00f4le indispensable de cadrer un plan d'ensemble, et de conduire l'action collective dans des domaines o\u00f9 les individus ne sont pas en contr\u00f4le (infrastructures, organisations juridiques et sociales, enseignement, etc). Esp\u00e9rons que, pour nos \u00e9diles aussi, le coup de gong de cet \u00e9t\u00e9 ait \u00e9t\u00e9 suffisamment fort pour les inciter \u00e0 s'y mettre s\u00e9rieusement." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6969226278092611584,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6969226278830809089,urn:li:activity:6969226278830809089,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 148, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6969226278830809089,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6969226278830809089,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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\u00e0 partir d'une enqu\u00eate d'opinion conduite aupr\u00e8s de 40.000 personnes de 20 pays repr\u00e9sentant 72% des \u00e9missions mondiales, pour \u00e9valuer le soutien - ou pas - de la population \u00e0 des politiques publiques \"favorables au climat\". \n\nComme souvent avec les sondages et enqu\u00eates, la r\u00e9ponse est dans la question, mais cette investigation fournit quand m\u00eame nombre d'informations int\u00e9ressantes. Pour commencer, la lecture du tableau ci-dessous (page 21 du document) fait regretter que la pr\u00e9sidence de la Commission Europ\u00e9enne ne soit pas assur\u00e9e par un(e) italien(ne) plut\u00f4t que par une allemande ! \n\nOn notera en effet le contraste saisissant entre le pourcentage d'adh\u00e9sion des habitant(e)s de la p\u00e9ninsule \u00e0 des mesures \"d\u00e9carbonantes\", et la fraction de la population germanique qui adh\u00e8re aux m\u00eames mesures (jusqu'\u00e0 30 points de diff\u00e9rence).\n\nLe soutien \u00e0 la taxe carbone, test\u00e9 en fonction de l'utilisation du produit de la taxe (figure 7 page 21), fait aussi appara\u00eetre une opinion allemande dans le bas de l'\u00e9chelle (parfois sous celle des USA, et les danois(es) sont encore plus hostiles que les allemand(e)s !).\n\nCela prouve, incidemment, que la vigueur de l'\u00e9conomie n'est pas un pr\u00e9alable indispensable \u00e0 l'adh\u00e9sion aux politiques appropri\u00e9es, au motif que ces derni\u00e8res demanderaient plein d'argent. L'\u00e9conomie italienne est en r\u00e9cession quasi-permanente depuis le pic de production du p\u00e9trole conventionnel (maximum en 2007 ; voir graphique en commentaire) et nos voisins doivent donc faire avec de moins en moins depuis cette \u00e9poque.\n\nSur le degr\u00e9 de connaissance sur les faits, cette enqu\u00eate nous apprend que seulement 33% des chinois(es) savent (ou acceptent !) que les \u00e9missions de la Chine sont les plus importantes dans l'ensemble des pays, et que seulement 15% des habitant(e)s de ce m\u00eame pays (m\u00eame pourcentage pour l'Inde) ont compris qu'il faudra diviser les \u00e9missions par plus de 2 (en fait les rendre nulles) pour que le r\u00e9chauffement climatique s'arr\u00eate d'augmenter.\n\nEt notre pays ? Il n'est pas sp\u00e9cialement bien plac\u00e9. Peut-\u00eatre que le plus utile que nous pourrions faire serait de modifier la constitution pour pouvoir \u00e9lire \u00e0 l'Elys\u00e9e un(e) italien(ne) :).\n\nA lire ce document on comprend que \"nous n'avons pas le cul sorti des ronces\". Mention sp\u00e9ciale, du coup, pour les media de tous les pays, qui ont encore du boulot pour que la population se mette les yeux en face des trous. Il ne serait pas inutile que les journalistes suivent eux aussi un module de 20 heures pour comprendre de quoi il retourne. 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"saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7048554611860631041)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7048554611860631041)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "francetvinfo.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Emmanuel Macron appelle le gouvernement \u00e0 \"l'unit\u00e9\" face \u00e0 \"la fin de l'abondance\" et \"de l'insouciance\" by francetvinfo.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/europe/manifestations-en-ukraine/emmanuel-macron-appelle-le-gouvernement-a-l-unite-face-a-la-fin-de-l-abondance-et-de-l-insouciance_5323795.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Emmanuel Macron appelle le gouvernement \u00e0 \"l'unit\u00e9\" face \u00e0 \"la fin de l'abondance\" et \"de l'insouciance\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": 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Ce discours aborde \u00e9norm\u00e9ment de sujets : sociaux, diplomatiques, militaires, financiers, commerciaux, sanitaire, enseignement, justice.... Certes il mentionne le changement climatique et rapidement les ressources (eau, m\u00e9taux), mais pas du tout les limites g\u00e9ologiques sur l'\u00e9nergie ou l'\u00e9rosion \u00e0 venir des ressources agricoles.\n\nEt surtout notre pr\u00e9sident ne met pas tous ces ingr\u00e9dients dans un r\u00e9cit global coh\u00e9rent sur la marche du monde (alors que la lecture physique de l'\u00e9conomie lui permettrait de le faire ; on peut donc l\u00e9gitimement se demander s'il a identifi\u00e9 ce point l\u00e0). Il n'y a nulle approche \"syst\u00e8me\" dans le discours du pr\u00e9sident, juste une \u00e9num\u00e9ration de choses qui \u00e9voluent de mani\u00e8re adverse, mais sans explication propos\u00e9e sur \"pourquoi ce n'est pas si \u00e9tonnant\" (alors que cela serait logique pour justifier que l'on change d'\u00e9poque). \n\nComme souvent avec notre premier magistrat, chacun(e) pourra donc voir dans les propos tenus essentiellement ce qui l'arrange (c'est probablement fait pour !), les amoureux de la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 comme les autres. Par exemple le passage sur la d\u00e9magogie (ou la coll\u00e9gialit\u00e9) est-il une exhortation \u00e0 ses propres troupes, en leur demandant d'\u00eatre s\u00e9rieux et de piocher leurs dossiers, ou un reproche \u00e0 peine voil\u00e9 aux d\u00e9put\u00e9s LR pour qu'ils arr\u00eatent de faire de la surench\u00e8re sur la d\u00e9pense publique (prix de l'\u00e9nergie par exemple) en \u00e9change de leur soutien ?\n\nEn mati\u00e8re de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9, il y avait bien plus int\u00e9ressant hier que le discours de Macron : l'entr\u00e9e en vigueur d'une disposition sur les passoires thermiques, qui, dans un premier temps, interdit d'augmenter les loyers quand ces biens sont propos\u00e9s \u00e0 la location, et, en 2025, il deviendra m\u00eame interdit de proposer un logement class\u00e9 G \u00e0 la location : https://bit.ly/3KhJHui\n\nLe simple fait que cette mesure n'ait pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9voqu\u00e9e hier montre bien que le fil conducteur de ce discours de rentr\u00e9e n'\u00e9tait pas le sujet \u00e9nergie-climat. Et, alors que le gouvernement pr\u00e9voit des dizaines de milliards pour subventionner l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, le p\u00e9trole et le gaz (https://bit.ly/3wpmH6T ), il n'\u00e9tait probablement pas tr\u00e8s facile (ni cr\u00e9dible) de lourdement insister sur le fait que nous entrons dans une \u00e8re nouvelle qui demande courage et lucidit\u00e9. \n\nL'avenir dira si ce discours \u00e9tait beaucoup de bruit pour rien ou pas. Macron a parl\u00e9 \u00e0 la fin de son discours d'un s\u00e9minaire gouvernemental pour pr\u00e9parer les d\u00e9cisions \u00e0 venir : il n'a pas dit que ce s\u00e9minaire inclurait une formation du gouvernement sur la lecture physique du monde. La premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape d'une vraie r\u00e9volution aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 l\u00e0 !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6968479678214893568,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6968479679234072576,urn:li:activity:6968479679234072576,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 107, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6968479679234072576,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6968479679234072576,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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\u00able symbole d'un effort \u00e0 deux vitesses\u00bb en mati\u00e8re de lutte contre les \u00e9missions de carbone." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8073688267667113903)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8073688267667113903)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lefigaro.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Cl\u00e9ment Beaune souhaite r\u00e9guler les vols en jets priv\u00e9s by lefigaro.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/clement-beaune-envisage-de-reguler-les-vols-en-jet-prive-20220820" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Cl\u00e9ment Beaune souhaite r\u00e9guler les vols en jets priv\u00e9s" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6968105122690146305,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le ministre des transports envisage de mettre quelques contraintes \u00e0 l'utilisation des jets priv\u00e9s. Faut-il effectivement \"faire des mis\u00e8res\" \u00e0 ce segment de l'aviation, qui, selon le Figaro (citant Eurocontrol), repr\u00e9sente d\u00e9sormais \"12% du transport a\u00e9rien\" ?\n\nNB : Le Figaro ne pr\u00e9cise pas \"12% de quoi\". Il peut s'agir en effet de 12% des mouvements d'avion, de 12% des kilom\u00e8tres en avion, ou, en th\u00e9orie (mais l\u00e0 c'est sur que ce n'est pas le cas !), de 12% des passagers.km. Et les vols consid\u00e9r\u00e9s peuvent \u00eatre ceux qui sont intra-europ\u00e9ens ou ceux qui atterrissent ou d\u00e9collent d'un a\u00e9roport europ\u00e9en (donc incluant par exemple les transatlantiques)... \n\nM\u00eame en admettant qu'il s'agisse de 12% des mouvements d'avion, les \u00e9missions correspondantes vont repr\u00e9senter quelques % de celles du trafic a\u00e9rien. Pas un sujet prioritaire pour le climat, pourrait-on penser, surtout que les mesures envisag\u00e9es par notre ministre des transports ne vont pas changer grand-chose : les vols qui peuvent \u00eatre remplac\u00e9s par du train en moins de 2h30 sont probablement anecdotiques dans l'ensemble du kilom\u00e9trage effectu\u00e9 en avion, et taxer le CO2 \u00e0 hauteur de 60 euros la tonne changera marginalement le cout de d\u00e9tention d'un tel engin (qui \u00e0 l'achat vaut des millions ou des dizaines de millions de dollars et \u00e0 l'usage des milliers de dollars par vol voire plus).\n\nMais il y a un argument fort dans ce cas de figure : l'exemplarit\u00e9. Renoncer \u00e0 un jet priv\u00e9 pour un d\u00e9placement qui rel\u00e8ve l'essentiel du temps des loisirs peut l\u00e9gitimement \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un effort moins important que de renoncer \u00e0 sa voiture pour la mobilit\u00e9 contrainte. Dit autrement si la puissance publique demande aux \"modestes\" de moins utiliser leur voiture, il n'est pas ill\u00e9gitime qu'elle demande en m\u00eame temps aux \"riches\" de ne plus utiliser de jets priv\u00e9s.\n\nC'est ce que l'on appelle une mesure \u00e0 effet de levier : elle porte sur des usages qui sont tr\u00e8s \u00e9missifs \u00e0 l'unit\u00e9, peu au total (parce qu'il y a quand m\u00eame peu de gens qui se d\u00e9placent en jet !), mais qui conditionnent l'acceptabilit\u00e9 de mesures qui vont elles porter sur des \u00e9missions beaucoup plus importantes en volume, mais beaucoup moins par usage.\n\nL'article du Figaro n'en parle pas, mais il se trouve que la France, avec Dassault et Airbus, h\u00e9berge une fraction importante de la construction de jets priv\u00e9s (https://lnkd.in/ebiH5dNe ). Entre les utilisateurs, qui sont par construction des personnes haut plac\u00e9es dans le monde \u00e9conomique, et les constructeurs, qui contribuent \u00e0 l'export dans un pays \u00e0 la balance commerciale peu en forme, il y a fort \u00e0 parier que ce n'est pas demain matin que cette forme de d\u00e9placement va se voir purement et simplement interdite. \n\nMais le d\u00e9bat est lanc\u00e9, et c'est une bonne chose. Pour assurer la p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 d'un mouvement d'ensemble, l'exemplarit\u00e9 est une composante indispensable, et il est l\u00e9gitime que la puissance publique l\u00e9gif\u00e8re en ce sens." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6968105122690146305,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6968105124430807040,urn:li:activity:6968105124430807040,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 227, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6968105124430807040,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6968105124430807040,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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Dans son \u00e9dition dat\u00e9e d'aujourd'hui, le quotidien publie une interview de Matthieu Auzanneau, qui fait \u00e9cho (l'interview, pas Matthieu !) \u00e0 un article publi\u00e9 par le m\u00eame quotidien sur les d\u00e9fis du gouvernement en mati\u00e8re de d\u00e9carbonation (https://lnkd.in/eD2AM3vG ).\n\nIl faut esp\u00e9rer qu'\u00e0 quelque chose malheur soit bon : apr\u00e8s un \u00e9t\u00e9 record en termes d'incendies, des sols au plus sec et des cours d'eau au plus bas, et, de l'autre c\u00f4t\u00e9, un contexte \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de plus en plus tendu, avec des prix hauts ou tr\u00e8s hauts pour le gaz (https://lnkd.in/eXNrG5wT ), le charbon, le p\u00e9trole, et par voie de cons\u00e9quence l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, on peut imaginer que le signal d'alarme commence \u00e0 \u00eatre audible.\n\nDans cette interview, Matthieu rappelle une chose importante : d\u00e9carboner, c'est reconstruire. C'est accepter que le fruit de notre travail serve moins \u00e0 consommer et plus \u00e0 investir. Investir dans des infrastructures qu'il faut modifier (certaines avant le terme normal de leur vie), investir dans la modification du syst\u00e8me agricole, investir dans la modification des logements et des b\u00e2timents, investir dans des syst\u00e8mes - dont des villes - capables de r\u00e9sister \u00e0 moins d'\u00e9nergie, moins d'eau, et des extr\u00eames de temp\u00e9rature plus prononc\u00e9s, investir dans l'adaptation foresti\u00e8re, investir dans des formations pour fonctionner diff\u00e9remment....\n\nAlors oui, fatalement, cela fera moins de moyens - humains et mat\u00e9riels - pour fabriquer des chemises, des jouets, des casseroles, et de l'eau en bouteille. 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Mais elle exporte aussi de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, essentiellement hydraulique, car c'est un pays vaste au regard de sa population (5,4 millions d'habitants pour 385.000 km2), disposant de reliefs, et d'eau... en temps ordinaire (une large partie du pays re\u00e7oit plus d'un m\u00e8tre de pluie/neige par an, et pr\u00e8s des c\u00f4tes cela peut monter \u00e0 plusieurs m\u00e8tres).\n\nSelon Le Monde, en 2021 ce pays a export\u00e9 environ 26 TWh, soit un peu moins de 17% d'une production totale s'\u00e9levant \u00e0 157 TWh (source BP Statistical Review). 26 TWh, ca ne change pas la face d'une Europe qui globalement produit pr\u00e8s de 3000 TWh (dont 19% au gaz). Mais localement ca peut ne pas \u00eatre n\u00e9gligeable, par exemple pour un Danemark qui produit 33 TWh seulement, et a besoin des barrages norv\u00e9giens pour \"balancer\" son \u00e9olien par nature non pilotable.\n\nMais voil\u00e0 : m\u00eame au nord de l'Europe la baisse des pr\u00e9cipitations se fait sentir. Du coup la Norv\u00e8ge pourrait ne plus avoir autant d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 offrir \u00e0 ses voisins (surtout au sud) \u00e0 l'avenir. \n\nOn pourrait aussi imaginer que les norv\u00e9giens fassent quelques \u00e9conomies : avec pr\u00e8s de 30.000 kWh \u00e9lectriques par personne et par an, ce sont les seconds plus gros consommateurs d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 au monde (apr\u00e8s l'Islande, qui est \u00e0 plus de 50.000 kWh \u00e9lectriques par personne et par an ; la France est \u00e0 8.100). Mais il est peu probable que la solidarit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne ira jusque l\u00e0 !\n\nQuand on regarde la production hydro\u00e9lectrique europ\u00e9enne sur s\u00e9rie longue, pour le moment on ne voit pas (encore ?) de baisse marqu\u00e9e de la production (qui est globalement stable, voir graphique en commentaire). Cependant, avec des pr\u00e9cipitations plut\u00f4t orient\u00e9es \u00e0 la baisse dans le cadre du r\u00e9chauffement climatique, il n'est pas sur que ca dure. Pendant un temps la fonte des glaciers peut alimenter les r\u00e9servoirs, ce qui peut compenser un peu, mais un temps seulement (et pas dans les massifs o\u00f9 il y a d\u00e9j\u00e0 peu de glaciers)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6967222413344268288,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6967222414313152512,urn:li:activity:6967222414313152512,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 38, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6967222414313152512,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6967222414313152512,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6966861610720104448,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le plan Repower EU (https://bit.ly/3KcXodN ), le plan de la Commission europ\u00e9enne en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 l'invasion de l'Ukraine, \"pr\u00e9voit\" notamment que l'Union produise 10 millions de tonnes d'hydrog\u00e8ne renouvelable par an en 2027. \n\nUn rapide calcul d'ordre de grandeur montre que cela demanderait 200 GW de puissance \u00e9olienne rien que pour cet usage, soit...en gros un doublement de la puissance install\u00e9e fin 2021. \n\nCa ne va donc pas \u00eatre si facile que cela d'avoir des grandes quantit\u00e9s d'hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9. Question : \u00e0 quels usages le r\u00e9server en premier pour celui qu'il y aura ? Pour le moment, c'est le secteur a\u00e9rien qui remporte la bataille de la communication, qui pr\u00e9sente comme acquis que des avions voleront \u00e0 l'hydrog\u00e8ne \"vert\".\n\nMais ce m\u00eame hydrog\u00e8ne \"vert\" peut servir :\n- \u00e0 fabriquer de l'acier (que l'on trouve partout) sans \u00e9mettre de CO2 (l'hydrog\u00e8ne remplace le coke - autrement dit le charbon - pour s\u00e9parer le fer et l'oxyg\u00e8ne dans le minera de fer)\n- \u00e0 fabriquer des engrais sans \u00e9mettre de CO2 (et sans engrais les rendements des cultures diminuent tr\u00e8s fortement).\n\nQuestion : est-ce vraiment le tourisme a\u00e9roport\u00e9 qui est l'application prioritaire du premier hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 qui sera disponible ? Est-ce \"le march\u00e9\" (c'est \u00e0 dire le secteur qui paiera le plus cher) qui doit d\u00e9cider du destin de cet hydrog\u00e8ne ?\n\nOu est-ce la puissance publique qui doit d\u00e9signer les secteurs prioritaires, et d\u00e9cider, par exemple, que les aliments et les objets m\u00e9talliques du quotidien sont prioritaires par rapport aux loisirs ?\n\nIl n'y aura pas que des sujets de technologie dans la d\u00e9carbonation de nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s. 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\u00e9tape vers \"encore moins sympathique\" \u00e0 l'avenir : tant que l'humanit\u00e9 continuera d'\u00e9mettre une seule tonne de CO2 sur terre, la temp\u00e9rature moyenne continuera d'augmenter. \n\nIl est donc plus que pertinent de se projeter dans un monde o\u00f9 les extr\u00eames de chaleur seront encore plus prononc\u00e9s qu'aujourd'hui, pour savoir comment s'en pr\u00e9munir au mieux (sachant que l'on ne pourra pas se pr\u00e9munir contre tout, et qu'il y aura malheureusement des deuils \u00e0 faire). \n\nC'est donc une excellente initiative que celle de Paris, qui lance une mission d'information (pr\u00e9sid\u00e9e par Alexandre Florentin) pour savoir ce que signifie devoir affronter de tels extr\u00eames, \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s certains dans un futur pas si lointain. En effet, en mati\u00e8re d'extr\u00eames, la situation \u00e9volue n\u00e9gativement plus vite que ce que les mod\u00e8les indiquaient il y a peu (https://bit.ly/3dL29is ).\n\nCette initiative rejoint les pr\u00e9conisations des travaux du Shift Project sur la \"r\u00e9silience des territoires\" (https://bit.ly/3QDXjSR ), qui portent sur la mani\u00e8re de s'adapter au mieux \u00e0 des perturbations environnementales qui vont aller croissant alors m\u00eame que nous aurons moins de moyens. En effet, nos moyens ce sont des ressources, et les ressources s'\u00e9puisent....\n\nEsp\u00e9rons que cet exemple sera suivi de nombreux autres. 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University Professor (UCLouvain, ULB, Vlerick, ICHEC and St-Louis). President of the Belgian Finance Center. 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positivement - Meadows (c'est rare pour un acteur des march\u00e9s financiers, je peux en t\u00e9moigner !), Ren\u00e9 Dumont et Pie XI, et soulignant - tr\u00e8s n\u00e9gativement cette fois - les risques \"d'hyst\u00e9rie mondiale\" et de perte de contr\u00f4le qui nous menacent \u00e0 un horizon pas si lointain si nous ne savons pas relever le d\u00e9fi environnemental, l'auteur appelle \u00e0 oublier d'urgence Adam Smith et la religion des march\u00e9s. Pour en rajouter une couche sur ce sujet, on peut lire ou relire le pamphlet croustillant de Stephane Foucart \"Des March\u00e9s et des Dieux\" : https://bit.ly/3Cg3OHl \n\nBien \u00e9videmment, d'aucun(e)s pourront dire que c'est facile de dissuader les autres de s'attabler une fois que l'on a bien profit\u00e9 du repas. Il n'en reste pas moins que c'est souvent de l'int\u00e9rieur que les charges les plus efficaces sont men\u00e9es : si cette tribune parvient jusqu'aux yeux de quelques dirigeants europ\u00e9ens, comme elle vient de \"l'un des leurs\", elle sera peut-\u00eatre beaucoup plus utile pour les \u00e9branler que si elle venait d'Attac ou de la CGT. \n\nCar l'essentiel est bien de changer le logiciel europ\u00e9en d'urgence. Notre projet, historiquement fond\u00e9 sur le libre \u00e9change et \"les march\u00e9s\", va droit dans le mur \u00e0 l'heure de la contraction physique des ressources. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7646663811301364296)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "nature.com \u2022 6 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Extreme heatwaves: surprising lessons from the record warmth by nature.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02114-y" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Extreme heatwaves: surprising lessons from the record warmth" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6965719339924602880,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un grand nombre de pays de l'h\u00e9misph\u00e8re Nord sont actuellement en train de souffrir d'une s\u00e9cheresse aig\u00fce. C'est le cas de la France, avec des sols exceptionnellement secs (https://bit.ly/3w77gju ), et des animaux et v\u00e9g\u00e9taux qui meurent (https://bit.ly/3JZo4P2 ), mais le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne touche aussi d'autres pays d'Europe, avec des fleuves quasiment \u00e0 sec du nord au sud (https://bit.ly/3pmLZP8 ), dont un Rhin au plus bas qui entrave les \u00e9changes commerciaux (https://bloom.bg/3QRUVHO), ou encore les digues des Pays-Bas qui n'aiment pas cette situation parce qu'elles ont besoin d'\u00eatre humidifi\u00e9es pour rester solides (https://bit.ly/3AvDckl ).\n\nAu-del\u00e0 de l'Europe, la Chine doit limiter la consommation d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans le Sichuan \u00e0 cause du d\u00e9ficit hydrique (https://bit.ly/3c2d3QA ), des \u00e9tats am\u00e9ricains vont \u00eatre rationn\u00e9s en eau \u00e0 cause de la faiblesse du Colorado (https://bit.ly/3pqn1yj ), le Maroc se bat avec des r\u00e9serves d'eau tr\u00e8s basses (https://bit.ly/3AqIHAK ) - et des r\u00e9coltes c\u00e9r\u00e9ali\u00e8res qui seront faibles, etc etc...\n\nDans ce contexte, Nature publie un article sur l'\u00e9cart constat\u00e9 - pas dans le bon sens - entre projections et r\u00e9alit\u00e9s pour les vagues de chaleur. Il y a quelques ann\u00e9es, les mod\u00e8les disaient bien qu'il y aurait une augmentation des vagues de chaleur. Mais ces outils num\u00e9riques ne les voyaient pas arriver aussi rapidement. \n\nJusqu'\u00e0 r\u00e9cemment, battre un record de temp\u00e9rature c'\u00e9tait le d\u00e9passer d'un degr\u00e9 ou d'une fraction de degr\u00e9. Au Canada l'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, comme \u00e0 Morlaix cette ann\u00e9e, c'est plut\u00f4t de 5\u00b0C que les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents records ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9pass\u00e9s...\n\nLes chercheurs n'ont pour le moment pas d'explication \"physique\" \u00e0 proposer pour expliquer pourquoi ces ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes extr\u00eames sont aussi rapidement \"plus extr\u00eames\". Les mod\u00e8les sont avant tout destin\u00e9s \u00e0 fournir l'\u00e9volution des valeurs moyennes. Les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes extr\u00eames rel\u00e8vent de la variabilit\u00e9, et faire des pr\u00e9visions en la mati\u00e8re est beaucoup plus difficile.\n\nPar exemple, d\u00e9passer de 5\u00b0C une valeur \"attendue\" sur 2 jours augmente la moyenne de 0,027 \u00b0C \u00e0 la fin de l'ann\u00e9e. C'est dans la barre d'incertitude.\n\nCe que confirme h\u00e9las l'\u00e9pisode en cours, c'est que la hausse de la moyenne de 2\u00b0C ne nous \"prot\u00e8ge\" pas contre une limitation \u00e0 3 ou 4\u00b0C d'\u00e9l\u00e9vation lors des \u00e9pisodes les plus intenses : la preuve vient de nous \u00eatre administr\u00e9e que le haut de la fourchette est difficile \u00e0 donner. La moyenne des pr\u00e9cipitations nous prot\u00e8ge encore moins contre un d\u00e9ficit hydrique majeur sur quelques mois, ce qui peut \u00eatre largement suffisant pour infliger des dommages irr\u00e9versibles aux \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes. \n\nComme il sera impossible de remettre le climat en l'\u00e9tat le jour o\u00f9 nous estimerons que la plaisanterie a assez dur\u00e9, il n'y a qu'une seule chose \u00e0 faire pour \u00e9viter les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts : baisser les \u00e9missions aussi vite que possible. 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Et puis il en a de moins en moins. L'Espagne s'ass\u00e8che au fil des ann\u00e9es, 2022 constituant un \u00e9pisode un peu intense sur une tendance qui est malheureusement \u00e0 l'augmentation de l'aridit\u00e9 \u00e0 cause du changement climatique (comme pour le sud de notre pays). \n\nEn pareil cas, \"on\" voudrait que \"on\" se restreigne sur l'eau disponible, en particulier lors des \u00e9pisodes intenses. Seulement voil\u00e0 : en Espagne comme en France, quand \"on\" a b\u00e2ti son activit\u00e9 sur l'existence de l'eau, se restreindre c'est parfois accepter une baisse de ses revenus, voire pas de revenus tout court.\n\nTout comme en France des agriculteurs continuent d'irriguer dans des d\u00e9partement en crise (et il y en a un gros paquet, de d\u00e9partements en crise : https://bit.ly/3SVvk2r ), les agriculteurs espagnols continuent \u00e0 utiliser de l'eau - souvent pr\u00e9lev\u00e9e dans les nappes l'\u00e9t\u00e9 - alors m\u00eame qu'il faudrait limiter les pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements.\n\nL\u00e0 comme ailleurs, l'interdiction est \u00e9videmment plus facile \u00e0 faire appliquer quand il y a une porte de sortie. Faute d'un plan (tiens tiens) pour diminuer les activit\u00e9s qui ont besoin d'eau de mani\u00e8re organis\u00e9e, en cas de p\u00e9nurie les utilisateurs de l'eau essaieront de pr\u00e9server leur consommation, et cette r\u00e9ponse au probl\u00e8me... contribuera \u00e0 aggraver le probl\u00e8me.\n\nDe fait, \u00e0 tr\u00e8s court terme la limitation des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements signifie une baisse d'activit\u00e9, voire une perte de r\u00e9colte. On peut certes envisager une indemnisation, mais l'argent ne se mange pas, et en outre cela fait une charge de plus pour un Etat qui a du mal \u00e0 boucher les trous. Face \u00e0 un probl\u00e8me r\u00e9current, la seule solution p\u00e9renne est malheureusement de diminuer les activit\u00e9s qui d\u00e9pendent de l'eau. \n\nAdapter les cultures \u00e0 moins d'eau ne va pas \u00eatre qu'un slogan : cela va demander une modification des emplois, des formations, des habitudes alimentaires, de l'agroalimentaire \u00e0 l'aval, des infrastructures de stockage ou de r\u00e9emploi de l'eau... et faute de le planifier (\u00e9ventuellement en mettant un peu moins de \"march\u00e9\", c'est-\u00e0-dire de concurrente qui rend court termiste) une partie des interdictions quand il y a \"crise\" restera lettre morte. \n\nEn gros, il s'agit de rien moins que de revisiter les priorit\u00e9s et les modalit\u00e9s de la politique agricole commune \u00e0 l'aune du dess\u00e8chement climatique." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6965414901410332672,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"accessibilityText": "Open article: \u2018It\u2019s a human rights issue\u2019: young adults take Portugal climate crisis to court by theguardian.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/11/its-a-human-rights-issue-young-adults-take-portugal-climate-crisis-to-court" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u2018It\u2019s a human rights issue\u2019: young adults take Portugal climate crisis to court" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6965056387139674112,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Que faire quand on est jeune et que l'\u00e9volution climatique en cours vous prend particuli\u00e8rement aux tripes, avec \"l'envie de faire quelque chose\" \u00e0 bref d\u00e9lai ?\n\nOn peut bien sur avoir un comportement personnel sobre. Ca permet de se \"regarder dans une glace\" et de se dire que l'on contribue le moins possible \u00e0 aggraver un probl\u00e8me qui vous stresse.\n\nOn peut d\u00e9marrer un projet. Mais ce dernier, au d\u00e9but, est n\u00e9cessairement local et/ou \u00e0 port\u00e9e limit\u00e9e. Donc il ne permettra pas d'avoir une influence d\u00e9terminante sur la marche du monde.\n\nOn peut oublier \"entrer dans une grande entreprise pour la faire se transformer de l'int\u00e9rieur\" : quand on est d\u00e9butant, on n'a pas de pouvoir de faire changer une entreprise de mani\u00e8re fondamentale (et m\u00eame apr\u00e8s ce n'est facile !). \n\nAlors certains jeunes se tournent vers l'activisme associatif ou judiciaire. L\u00e0 il y a l'espoir qu'une action ait un effet de levier non n\u00e9gligeable sur la marche des choses.\n\nC'est ainsi que quelques jeunes portugais se sont retrouv\u00e9s \u00e0 assigner en justice les ex\u00e9cutifs de 32 pays europ\u00e9ens pour \"action insuffisante\" devant la Cour europ\u00e9enne des droits de l'homme. Laquelle Cour vient de d\u00e9cider qu'il y aura une audition devant la formation dite de la \"grande chambre\", ce qui signifie que les magistrats consid\u00e8rent qu'il y a mati\u00e8re \u00e0 d\u00e9bats.\n\nCes derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, ces proc\u00e8s se sont multipli\u00e9s. Il y a fort \u00e0 parier que cela sera de plus en plus le cas \u00e0 mesure que l'\u00e9cart entre les cons\u00e9quences d\u00e9j\u00e0 observables et la \"mollesse\" des r\u00e9actions ira croissant. \n\nSi m\u00eame les proc\u00e8s ne donnent pas de r\u00e9sultats satisfaisants aux yeux des jeunes, les paris sont ouverts pour l'\u00e9tape d'apr\u00e8s, mais le d\u00e9sespoir conduit rarement \u00e0 des comportements tr\u00e8s conciliants avec les personnes \"qui ont les manettes\".\n\nAlors que les cons\u00e9quences semblent survenir bien plus vite que l'id\u00e9e que l'on s'en faisait il y a quelques ann\u00e9es (cet \u00e9t\u00e9 allant dans ce sens), pensons y !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6965056387139674112,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6965056388033060864,urn:li:activity:6965056388033060864,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, 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La vid\u00e9o en ligne est responsable des 2/3 du trafic sur internet et un facteur majeur d'inflation de l'empreinte carbone des r\u00e9seaux. Est-ce que nous serions beaucoup plus malheureux si cette novation n'avait pas diffus\u00e9, et que nous allions toujours au cin\u00e9ma, achetions des dvd, et regardions la t\u00e9l\u00e9 analogique ?\n\nMaintenant que c'est devenu trendy d'aller passer ses vacances \u00e0 l'autre bout de la plan\u00e8te quand on a les moyens, ceux qui s'y sont mis ont souvent du mal \u00e0 arr\u00eater. Mais ceux qui sont toujours all\u00e9s en Bretagne ou dans les Vosges ont-ils au fond l'impression d'avoir pass\u00e9 de beaucoup plus mauvaises vacances ?\n\nD\u00e8s lors qu'une novation va augmenter les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre pour un b\u00e9n\u00e9fice pas du tout majeur, la prudence voudrait donc que l'on fasse l'effort de commencer par ne pas y aller, avant de se demander ensuite comment on va faire pour faire baisser les usages une fois que ces derniers sont \"entr\u00e9s dans les moeurs\". \n\nSelon cet article des Echos, les banques se t\u00e2tent pour savoir si elles doivent fricoter avec les cryptomonnaies. Quand on voit l'empreinte carbone du minage de bitcoins (et de leurs petits copains), lesquels bitcoins et autres ethereum ne sont par contre pas en mesure de reconstituer les stocks de poissons, de supprimer les vagues de chaleur et de faire venir la pluie, d'acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer l'isolation des b\u00e2timents, la construction de pistes cyclables, la \"relocalisation\" de l'agriculture, et plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement aucune des mesures \u00e9voqu\u00e9es dans https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf, la r\u00e9ponse est assez simple : il ne faut pas y aller.\n\nLa modernit\u00e9 n'est pas un argument d'autorit\u00e9. La seule bonne question est de savoir si c'est pertinent au regard de la balance avantages-inconv\u00e9nients. Si la r\u00e9ponse est non, rien ne nous force \u00e0 y aller quand m\u00eame." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6964633644837523456,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6964633645596696576,urn:li:activity:6964633645596696576,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 209, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6964633645596696576,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6964633645596696576,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8760546573020262999)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Un \u00e9t\u00e9 record pour la consommation d'eau en bouteille by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/conso-distribution/un-ete-record-pour-la-consommation-deau-en-bouteille-1781588#" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un \u00e9t\u00e9 record pour la consommation d'eau en bouteille" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6964302086482104320,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "De l'eau en bouteille, c'est du plastique (pour faire la bouteille), du camion (parfois du train mais c'est plus rare) pour transporter la bouteille depuis le lieu d'embouteillage jusqu'au magasin, souvent de la voiture pour transporter l'eau en bouteilles du magasin jusque chez le consommateur (parce que c'est lourd), et accessoirement de l'eau dans la bouteille, eau que le consommateur va payer des centaines de fois plus cher au litre que l'eau du robinet : une fraction de centime dans le cas de l'eau courante (https://lnkd.in/embCrZwg ) contre quelques dizaines de centimes (parfois plus) pour de l'eau en bouteille.\n\nLes produits agricoles et alimentaires sont \u00e0 l'origine d'un tiers du fret routier dans notre pays (https://bit.ly/3PnLm2r ). Au vu de l'espace que les boissons occupent dans une grande surface, il n'est pas tr\u00e8s dur de deviner que leur part dans le fret routier de produits agroalimentaires ne doit pas \u00eatre compl\u00e8tement n\u00e9gligeable (difficile de trouver des statistiques). \n\nApr\u00e8s la ru\u00e9e sur les climatiseurs (qui conduisent \u00e0 une hausse de la consommation \u00e9lectrique et donc des \u00e9missions de CO2 associ\u00e9es s'il faut rajouter du gaz ou du charbon pour satisfaire la demande), voici un autre cas de figure o\u00f9 la r\u00e9ponse au r\u00e9chauffement climatique contribue \u00e0 augmenter les \u00e9missions, m\u00eame si ce n'est pas dans les m\u00eames ordres de grandeur. \n\nIl n'emp\u00eache : alors que le pays est pr\u00e9occup\u00e9 par l'inflation, pourquoi payer son m\u00e8tre cube d'eau potable 500 \u00e0 2000 euros tout en \u00e9mettant plus de CO2 alors que l'eau courante est \u00e0 quelques euros ?\n\nSi ce qui est pratique est d'avoir la bouteille 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Le chef de l'Etat entendait, par son..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Le discours historique de Jacques Chirac au Sommet de la Terre de l'ONU" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6963893664624345088,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'\u00e9tait il n'y a pas tout \u00e0 fait 20 ans, puisqu'il s'agit de septembre 2002. C'\u00e9tait \u00e0 la tribune des Nations Unies, un endroit o\u00f9 l'on fait parfois preuve de grandes envol\u00e9es lyriques, en esp\u00e9rant qu'une formule fera ensuite le tour de la plan\u00e8te (ce qui a bien fonctionn\u00e9 avec le discours en question).\n\nQuand on lit le texte complet du discours prononc\u00e9 \u00e0 Johannesbourg par Chirac - disponible sur https://bit.ly/3C2xffV - on se dit que tout chef d'\u00e9tat pourrait l'avoir prononc\u00e9 \u00e0 toute COP depuis qu'il y a des COP. \n\nEt si nous regardons dans le r\u00e9troviseur, qu'avons nous fait ?\n\nDepuis 2002, la consommation mondiale de charbon a augment\u00e9 (\u00e0 fin 2021) de plus de 50%, celle de p\u00e9trole de 17% et celle de gaz de 61%. Certes les ENR ont aussi augment\u00e9, mais macroscopiquement elles n'ont pas remplac\u00e9 du fossile : elles sont venues en plus.\n\nLes \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre ont augment\u00e9 d'environ 30%. La biodiversit\u00e9 a continu\u00e9 \u00e0 s'\u00e9roder. Les prises de poisson ont continu\u00e9 \u00e0 diminuer (le maximum mondial \u00e9tait 1995 et depuis ca baisse). Etc etc.\n\nQuelle le\u00e7on en retenir ? Que les discours dans ce genre d'enceinte n'ont malheureusement aucune esp\u00e8ce d'importance. Ce qui compte ce sont les actes, et il n'y a pas de lien entre les deux (dans le m\u00eame esprit \"make the planet great again n'a d\u00e9bouch\u00e9 sur \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s rien de concret). \n\nMais c'est bien plus difficile \u00e0 analyser : il faut quelques minutes pour lire le discours de Chirac \u00e0 Johannesbourg. C'est l'oeuvre d'une vie de d\u00e9cortiquer l'ad\u00e9quation avec les limites plan\u00e9taires de toutes les d\u00e9cisions prises ou qui pourraient l'\u00eatre en mati\u00e8re d'agriculture, de gestion de l'urbanisme ou de performance des logements et des b\u00e2timents tertiaires, de v\u00e9hicules, d'infrastructures, d'\u00e9nergie, de fiscalit\u00e9, d'encadrement de la publicit\u00e9 ou du trafic a\u00e9rien, et j'en passe.\n\nEt \u00e0 chaque fois il faut d\u00e9cortiquer des chiffres. L'environnement, c'est comme l'\u00e9conomie, en beaucoup plus compliqu\u00e9 : il faut toujours compter pour parvenir \u00e0 une conclusion, mais il ne faut pas compter qu'avec une seule unit\u00e9. Les m\u00e8tres cubes d'eau (qui font d\u00e9faut actuellement) ne s'ajoutent pas aux tonnes de coccinelles ou aux \u00e9missions de CO2.\n\nIl n'y a pas 36 mani\u00e8res de devenir s\u00e9rieux : il faut y passer du temps (beaucoup de temps) et acqu\u00e9rir des comp\u00e9tences (beaucoup de comp\u00e9tences). Et il faut le faire en plus des sujets que l'on doit d\u00e9j\u00e0 g\u00e9rer. C'est vrai pour les politiques ; c'est vrai pour les d\u00e9cideurs \u00e9conomiques ; c'est vrai pour chaque citoyen.\n\nAujourd'hui, nous regardons h\u00e9las toujours ailleurs. Nous regardons surtout des euros et nous regardons \u00e0 des horizons de temps bien trop courts. \"Nous ne pourrons pas dire que nous ne savions pas\" disait Chirac. Nous ne le disons peut-\u00eatre pas, mais nous agissons tout comme...\n\nSi les le\u00e7ons de cet \u00e9t\u00e9 sont retenues ou pas se verra notamment dans l'acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration - ou pas - de l'acquisition de connaissances par \"tout le monde\" \u00e0 partir de la rentr\u00e9e." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6963893664624345088,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6963893665953943554,urn:li:activity:6963893665953943554,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 269, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6963893665953943554,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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des maladies infectieuses humaines seraient aggrav\u00e9es par le changement climatique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6963373035818999808,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le propre des exp\u00e9riences que l'on fait pour la premi\u00e8re fois, c'est que le r\u00e9sultat n'est pas toujours pr\u00e9dictible de mani\u00e8re exacte. C'est le cas pour la d\u00e9rive climatique que nous avons mise en route : les grandes tendances peuvent \u00eatre comprises, certaines quantifi\u00e9es assez pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment (par exemple la hausse du contenu \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de l'ensemble atmosph\u00e8re-oc\u00e9an en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 nos \u00e9missions), d'autres plus difficilement (par exemple le nombre pr\u00e9cis de s\u00e9cheresses ou d'\u00e9pisodes pluvieux intenses que nous aurons une ann\u00e9e donn\u00e9 sur terre ; ironiquement pendant que nous vivons une s\u00e9cheresse historique d'autres r\u00e9gions du monde vivent des inondations historiques : https://bit.ly/3JT2bkv )\n\nPour d'autres encore, la quantification \u00e0 l'avance est quasi-impossible, parce qu'il s'agit d'un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne multifactoriel et/ou qui porte sur un trop grand nombre de processus. Il en va ainsi de la propagation des maladies. La tendance est connue depuis longtemps : le r\u00e9chauffement climatique devrait plut\u00f4t favoriser leurs occurrences. Le r\u00e9chauffement augmente les zones de pr\u00e9sence de \"vecteurs\" (moustiques, tiques, mouches, etc) par exemple.\n\nMais quoi quand comment, voil\u00e0 qui est plus difficile. Ce qui ne veut pas dire qu'il ne se passera rien. Un article r\u00e9cemment paru dans Nature (https://lnkd.in/eWQy_SCX ) et relay\u00e9 par Le Monde conclut, sur la base d'une large analyse bibliographique, que le changement climatique a d\u00e9j\u00e0 contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 aggraver les cons\u00e9quences de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9celable pour la moiti\u00e9 des 375 maladies infectieuses concernant les \u00eatres humains.\n\nEvidemment cette tendance est aussi favoris\u00e9e par l'urbanisation (qui nous concentre dans des endroits o\u00f9 la propagation est plus facile) et les \u00e9changes rapides entre zones (\u00e0 commencer par l'avion). Lorsque l'on consulte les tables de mortalit\u00e9 publi\u00e9es par Malthus pour le 18\u00e8 si\u00e8cle, on r\u00e9alise que l'esp\u00e9rance de vie \u00e0 la naissance \u00e9tait alors sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la campagne qu'en ville pour les pays europ\u00e9ens ! Les villes n'offraient pas d'infrastructures de soins particuli\u00e8res, mais offraient tout \u00e0 fait une meilleure propagation des miasmes...\n\nEt comme une bonne nouvelle n'arrive jamais seule, The Lancet publie au m\u00eame moment une \u00e9tude montrant que la hausse des temp\u00e9ratures nocturnes, en d\u00e9gradant possiblement de mani\u00e8re importante la qualit\u00e9 du sommeil, pourrait aussi conduire \u00e0 une hausse d'un certain nombre de pathologies par affaiblissement du syst\u00e8me immunitaire, ainsi qu'\u00e0 plus de maladies cardiovasculaires (https://lnkd.in/e5Se2NT3 ).\n\nFace \u00e0 un risque diffus, multifacettes, engendrant des cons\u00e9quences non ou peu r\u00e9versibles, la pr\u00e9vention est \u00e9videmment la meilleure des politiques. Esp\u00e9rons que cet \u00e9t\u00e9 sera au moins utile \u00e0 ca..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6963373035818999808,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6963373037400301568,urn:li:activity:6963373037400301568,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 38, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6963373037400301568,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6963373037400301568,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Il s'int\u00e9resse particuli\u00e8rement \u00e0 la question..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "CRISE CLIMATIQUE ET \u00c9NERG\u00c9TIQUE : REGARDER LA V\u00c9RIT\u00c9 EN FACE - Jean-Baptiste Fressoz" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6963023969050374144,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Quand il y a d\u00e9bat sur la \"transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\", les protagonistes qui sont le plus fr\u00e9quemment de la partie partent soit de la \"technique\" (quand il est question des performances des v\u00e9hicules, logements ou usines, et sont alors souvent des ing\u00e9nieurs ou techniciens), soit du comportement, pour disserter sur nos d\u00e9sirs ou nos organisations sociales. \n\nIl est plus rare de prendre l'histoire comme angle d'approche. Pourtant, il est \u00e9vident que mieux on conna\u00eet le pass\u00e9, et moins on a de chances de se tromper en prenant des paris. Cette interview de Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, un historien des sciences et de l'environnement, propose une tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressante analyse de notre rapport historique \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie et \u00e0 l'extraction de ressources.\n\nAnalyse int\u00e9ressante, donc, mais pas tr\u00e8s rassurante, puisque Fressoz explique que :\n- il n'y a jamais eu de \"transition\" \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique dans le pass\u00e9, au sens o\u00f9 une \u00e9nergie aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 remplac\u00e9e par une autre. Toutes les \u00e9nergies actuellement utilis\u00e9es se sont empil\u00e9es les unes sur les autres sans substitution \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle, parce que notre comportement a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 d'accumuler et non de remplacer. \n- dans le m\u00eame esprit, il n'y a pas eu de \"transition\" sur les mat\u00e9riaux ou les m\u00e9taux. Les 60 mat\u00e9riaux les plus utilis\u00e9s dans le monde l'ont \u00e9t\u00e9 chacun en quantit\u00e9 croissante depuis le d\u00e9but de leur utilisation : l\u00e0 aussi il y a empilement et non remplacement. \n- les \"sc\u00e9narios de d\u00e9carbonation\" qui figurent dans le rapport du groupe 3 du GIEC (rappelons que c'est le groupe o\u00f9 se trouvent les \u00e9conomistes) rel\u00e8vent du conte de f\u00e9es (ce n'est pas dit comme cela, mais c'est bien le sens des propos). Les sc\u00e9narios qui permettent de respecter la limitation du r\u00e9chauffement \u00e0 1,5 ou 2\u00b0C reposent sur des diffusions de technologies \u00e0 des vitesses qui sont totalement improbables, \n- les \u00e9nergies sont imbriqu\u00e9es les unes aux autres. Par exemple le p\u00e9trole a besoin de charbon (parce qu'il a besoin d'acier) et le charbon a besoin de p\u00e9trole (parce qu'il a besoin d'engins de mine). Fressoz ne croit pas \u00e0 un syst\u00e8me \"d\u00e9simbriqu\u00e9\" comportant uniquement des renouvelables pour maintenir un monde ressemblant \u00e0 l'actuel.\n- le savoir ne suffit pas. Depuis que \"nous savons\" pour le climat par exemple, aucune modification soci\u00e9tale \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle n'est intervenue pour ce motif. Il est parfois arriv\u00e9 que l'on rhabille de \"motivation climatique\" une \u00e9volution qui a pris place pour d'autres raisons.\n\nJean-Baptiste Fressoz ne le dit pas explicitement, mais on sent qu'il le pense tr\u00e8s fort : \u00e0 cause de cette inertie qui caract\u00e9rise les organisations et techniques humaines, et de notre addiction \u00e0 l'accumulation, il ne croit pas \u00e0 une \"sortie par le haut\" dans la situation actuelle. Nous allons continuer \u00e0 accumuler \"tant que ca passe\" et c'est le fait qu'\u00e0 un moment \"ca ne passera plus\" qui va changer la donne. \n\nA ce moment l\u00e0, nous aurons bien une transition. Mais peut-\u00eatre pas celle \u00e9voqu\u00e9e \u00e0 longueur de discours politiques et techniques." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6963023969050374144,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6963023970182811648,urn:li:activity:6963023970182811648,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 282, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6963023970182811648,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6963023970182811648,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6962676176481878016,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Alors qu'une 3\u00e8 vague de chaleur s'appr\u00eate \u00e0 frapper l'Europe en un peu plus d'un mois, Les Echos publient un article r\u00e9capitulant un certain nombre de \"mauvaises surprises\" qui frappent en particulier les pays du Nord de l'Europe, qui n'avaient pas anticip\u00e9 que les temp\u00e9ratures pourraient grimper aussi haut aussi vite.\n\nDe fait, apr\u00e8s le Canada qui avait vu des records de temp\u00e9rature battus de plusieurs degr\u00e9s en une seule fois l'\u00e9t\u00e9 dernier, c'est au tour de notre continent de conna\u00eetre le m\u00eame ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne (heureusement sur une dur\u00e9e un peu moins longue). Les 40\u00b0C enregistr\u00e9s il y a 15 jours en Bretagne Nord ont par exemple d\u00e9pass\u00e9 d'environ 5\u00b0C le pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent record.\n\nAu menu des cons\u00e9quences des temp\u00e9ratures tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9es et de la s\u00e9cheresse tr\u00e8s prononc\u00e9e, on va ainsi trouver :\n- des incendies dans des pays jusqu'alors \u00e9pargn\u00e9s,\n- des syst\u00e8mes informatiques non dimensionn\u00e9s pour de telles chaleurs qui d\u00e9faillent\n- des pistes d'a\u00e9roport impraticables (ca c'est plut\u00f4t bon pour le climat !)\n- un pont basculant dont le m\u00e9tal se dilate trop pour qu'il puisse fonctionner sans arrosage\n- un Rhin trop bas pour pouvoir permettre la navigation des barges avec un chargement normal (ce m\u00eame ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne avait eu lieu en 2018 et avait p\u00e9nalis\u00e9 la logistique des sites industriels allemands situ\u00e9s le long du fleuve, qui avaient du diminuer leur production de mani\u00e8re significative)\n- une baisse de la production de centrales nucl\u00e9aires et de la production \u00e9olienne\n- et \u00e9videmment des cons\u00e9quences agricoles en cascade (non d\u00e9taill\u00e9es cette fois ci mais abord\u00e9es dans un autre article des Echos : https://lnkd.in/egZY6JFK ). A ce propos il serait souhaitable qu'en pareil cas on mette l'accent sur les volumes concern\u00e9s avant de parler argent : ce dernier ne se mange pas !\n\nRappelons le une fois de plus : tout cela n'est que le d\u00e9but. Comme pour les tensions sur l'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6962676176481878016,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6962676177282990080,urn:li:activity:6962676177282990080,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 73, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6962676177282990080,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6962676177282990080,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8738358688194794793)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theguardian.com \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Chaos after heat crashes computers at leading London hospitals by theguardian.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/07/chaos-after-heat-crashes-computers-at-leading-london-hospitals" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Chaos after heat crashes computers at leading London hospitals" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6962451684639809536,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le syst\u00e8me informatique d'un des plus grands \u00e9tablissements hospitaliers de Grande-Bretagne n'a pas r\u00e9sist\u00e9 \u00e0 la vague de chaleur qui s'est abattue sur ce pays il y a quinze jours. \n\nLe num\u00e9rique devrait faire l'objet d'une attention sp\u00e9ciale dans le contexte \u00e9nerg\u00e9tico-climatique \u00e0 venir :\n- il est gourmand en ressources (40 m\u00e9taux diff\u00e9rents dans un ordinateur)\n- il correspond \u00e0 4% de l'empreinte carbone plan\u00e9taire environ, et des choses aussi indispensables que la vid\u00e9o netflix sur le portable ou le m\u00e9tavers pour vendre du Mr Propre (sans parler de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 virtuelle ou des jeux en ligne) poussent fortement dans la mauvaise direction\n- et il ne tol\u00e8re pas n\u00e9cessairement les tr\u00e8s fortes chaleurs.\n\nIl se trouve que, dans les ann\u00e9es et d\u00e9cennies qui viennent :\n\n- la fabrication des composants (dalles d'\u00e9crans, microprocesseurs, m\u00e9moires flash, microcontr\u00f4leurs, etc) est tr\u00e8s concentr\u00e9e (pour certains composants il n'y a que un ou deux fournisseurs majeurs ou zones de production majeures), et il y a donc besoin d'une mondialisation importante derri\u00e8re pour que tout le monde en profite. Or, les chaines mondialis\u00e9es vont \u00eatre soumises \u00e0 des pressions croissantes avec la d\u00e9crue p\u00e9troli\u00e8re et les soubresauts \u00e9conomiques et politiques qui vont en r\u00e9sulter. La cons\u00e9quence, pour les pays qui n'ont ni mines ni usines, est potentiellement un syst\u00e8me digital (dont nous nous rendons d\u00e9pendant, pour payer nos imp\u00f4ts, communiquer, g\u00e9rer des usines, g\u00e9rer la production \u00e9lectrique, ou... nous soigner) qui sera plus difficile \u00e0 maintenir et donc soumis \u00e0 des d\u00e9faillances accrues.\n\n- enfin la pression climatique va aussi occasionner des d\u00e9faillances en quantit\u00e9 croissante. Soit des centres n\u00e9vralgiques seront inond\u00e9s (la r\u00e9\u00e9dition de la crue de 1910 \u00e0 Paris, par exemple, noierait des infrastructures de r\u00e9seau importantes), soit des composants pas assez r\u00e9sistants \u00e0 la chaleur (pas pr\u00e9vus pour) seront d\u00e9faillants.\n\nPour la s\u00e9cheresse, il nous a fallu attendre d'avoir le nez dessus pour comprendre que nous aurions du nous pr\u00e9parer depuis un moment d\u00e9j\u00e0 (ce que nous n'avons pas - ou pas assez - fait, alors que c'\u00e9tait parfaitement pr\u00e9visible). \n\nPour le digital, faudra-t-il attendre des pannes majeures (par d\u00e9faut de fourniture de composants de remplacement, ou par d\u00e9faillance due au climat) pour r\u00e9aliser l\u00e0 aussi qu'il aurait fallu agir avant ?\n\n\"Agir\" c'est assez simple : ca sera revenir \u00e0 l'analogique pour des syst\u00e8mes qui ne doivent vraiment pas d\u00e9faillir (par exemple je suis tr\u00e8s r\u00e9serv\u00e9 sur la num\u00e9risation du contr\u00f4le commande des centrales nucl\u00e9aires), aller sur la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 num\u00e9rique pour les autres usages (limitation des d\u00e9bits et du renouvellement des terminaux pour faire simple), et \"durcir\" les composants pour r\u00e9sister \u00e0 des fortes chaleurs.\n\nNe pas agir signifie que nous aurons, \"un jour\", de grosses paralysies subites, dont l'\u00e9pisode sanitaire londonien donne une petite id\u00e9e. 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7901528337062643729)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "huffingtonpost.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Face \u00e0 la s\u00e9cheresse \u00ab historique \u00bb, une cellule de crise ouverte par \u00c9lisabeth Borne by huffingtonpost.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/france/article/face-a-la-secheresse-historique-une-cellule-de-crise-ouverte-par-elisabeth-borne_206264.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Face \u00e0 la s\u00e9cheresse \u00ab\u00a0historique\u00a0\u00bb, une cellule de crise ouverte par \u00c9lisabeth Borne" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6961978723478687744,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans le premier rapport d'\u00e9valuation du GIEC (https://lnkd.in/eDKR_VPF ), publi\u00e9 il y a 32 ans, en 1990, il figurait dans le r\u00e9sum\u00e9 aux d\u00e9cideurs la phrase suivante : \"Soil moisture (...) decreases over northern mid-latitude continents in summer\". Le risque de s\u00e9cheresses estivales en Europe et aux USA (et accessoirement en Chine) en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 un climat qui se r\u00e9chauffe \u00e9tait donc d\u00e9j\u00e0 identifi\u00e9 il y a quelques d\u00e9cennies (images en commentaires).\n\nDepuis, ce risque n'a cess\u00e9 de se pr\u00e9ciser. Dans le 5\u00e8 rapport d'\u00e9valuation du GIEC (2013), les simulations montrent que les sols s'ass\u00e8chent sur une large partie des terres \u00e9merg\u00e9es d\u00e8s l'existence d'un r\u00e9chauffement m\u00eame \"modeste\" (image en commentaire). Ce rapport confirme \u00e9galement que c'est d\u00e9j\u00e0 la tendance observ\u00e9e.\n\nEt dans le dernier rapport du GIEC (https://lnkd.in/eHfjjKEz ) tout cela est \u00e0 nouveau r\u00e9affirm\u00e9 (voir image en commentaire).\n\nCe qui est en crise, dans cette affaire, avant m\u00eame la gestion de la p\u00e9nurie de cet \u00e9t\u00e9, c'est notre aptitude \u00e0 correctement anticiper une situation qui n'\u00e9tait pas du ressort du \"peut-\u00eatre\", mais que l'on (enfin ca d\u00e9pend qui est \"on\"...) savait in\u00e9luctable. \n\nAu lieu de nous pr\u00e9occuper de garantir que nous aurions encore des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes et de quoi manger (et nos voisins pareil, sans quoi l'histoire nous apprend que ca risque de chauffer un peu chez nous aussi), nous nous sommes occup\u00e9s ces derniers temps de faire plus de (grosses) voitures, de routes, de r\u00e9seaux de t\u00e9l\u00e9com pour regarder Netflix, de cosm\u00e9tiques, d'avions, d'immeubles, de centres commerciaux, de sacs \u00e0 main et de march\u00e9s financiers, sans oublier le p\u00e9trole et le gaz pour alimenter tout ca (c'est essentiellement avec ces \"march\u00e9s finaux\" que les profits - tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9s - des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s du CAC 40 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9s : https://lnkd.in/eWuc9B_9 ).\n\nLa vieille fable de la cigale et de la fourmi reste donc d'une actualit\u00e9 d\u00e9concertante. Et chanter - ou danser - fait malheureusement rarement venir la pluie, contrairement \u00e0 la l\u00e9gende...\n\nComme pour l'\u00e9volution actuelle sur l'\u00e9nergie qui semble nous \"prendre au d\u00e9pourvu\" alors qu'il \u00e9tait possible de la voir arriver de loin, il n'y a pas juste besoin d'une \"cellule de crise\" dans cette histoire. Il y a besoin d'un plan massif pour r\u00e9orienter l'\u00e9conomie, en gardant en t\u00eate que, malheureusement, \u00e0 cause de l'inertie du syst\u00e8me climatique et des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s humaines qui \u00e9mettent, l'avenir risque de nous r\u00e9server bien pire que la situation actuelle. Lorsque ce \"pire\" sera l\u00e0 (sur l'\u00e9nergie ou l'environnement) alors que nous avons eu les yeux tourn\u00e9s ailleurs, nous ne pourrons pas y faire grand chose, cellule de crise ou pas." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6961978723478687744,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6961978724581793792,urn:li:activity:6961978724581793792,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 243, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6961978724581793792,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6961978724581793792,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"com.linkedin.voyager.feed.render.ArticleComponent": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "urn": "urn:li:article:7158635427516992591", "swapTitleAndSubtitle": false, "largeImage": { "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "attributes": [ { "useCropping": false, "sourceType": "VECTOR", "vectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800/0/1676006856397?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=vJ725ZphlV4DAx98RVMCT0qX0cvdn-SVcJLUdxlT6HE", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 449 }, { "width": 900, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "1280_800/0/1676006856398?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=9RcZNd307oHYYB66ZqmB5pIf-lKD0M03aFbKR2Og-Vg", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 506 }, { "width": 160, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "160/0/1676006856398?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=OgaCjRN3pSxuIkUcnOvKLGuqLzGvro4-QCD12LEsPZE", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 89 }, { "width": 480, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "480/0/1676006856398?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=uqS918w4JqXXlJd7JiwiYQjp7MsA97_MS88Kwl2ivcI", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 269 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/sync/C4D27AQEWyglOfpD8tw/articleshare-shrink_" }, "displayAspectRatio": 0.56125 } ] }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7158635427516992591)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7158635427516992591)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "ft.com \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Wildfires destroy almost all forest carbon offsets in 100-year reserve, study says by ft.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.ft.com/content/d54d5526-6f56-4c01-8207-7fa7e532fa09?accessToken=zwAAAYJtSJMakdPVTVUmb1ZMAdOCB3-n5TL6CQ.MEQCIB1Mg0SE8LIxFm_nFY2C1cPBYyclq7j0_1fUBjNYLTRGAiAJZIZoE8AFyfIvmBcIjiXCDWyyaRoWUyPouGnQ-1caJA&sharetype=gift&token=693570e7-cc1e-4f90-af62-329a63f5d5c1" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Wildfires destroy almost all forest carbon offsets in 100-year reserve, study says" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6961252296752050176,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Bien que cela ne soit pas valide scientifiquement, nombre d'entreprises revendiquent une \"neutralit\u00e9 carbone\" en recourant \u00e0 ce qui s'appelle la \"compensation\". L'id\u00e9e est la suivante : l'entreprise pr\u00e9tend \"annuler\" ses \u00e9missions en achetant des cr\u00e9dits \u00e9mis par des projets qui sont cens\u00e9s s\u00e9questrer du CO2 \u00e0 l'avenir. \n\nEn fait l'argument - apparemment simple et de bon gout - ne tient pas \u00e0 la base (https://lnkd.in/db7JzB2q ), mais le propos ne sera pas l\u00e0 pour ce post. Il concerne la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du carbone s\u00e9questr\u00e9 par les projets forestiers, qui constituent l'essentiel des cr\u00e9dits \u00e9mis.\n\nEn effet, d\u00e8s lors que l'absorption est future, il peut y avoir plein d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements qui viennent contrarier la croissance des arbres : retour de la d\u00e9forestation, maladies, s\u00e9cheresse, ou... incendies. Bref tous les processus qui font que les arbres ne poussent pas normalement, ou pas du tout.\n\nPour parer \u00e0 cette \u00e9ventualit\u00e9, dans la comptabilit\u00e9 des projets de reforestation, on met un petit \"matelas de s\u00e9curit\u00e9\", consistant \u00e0 ne pas compter une petite partie de la croissance future. Mais c'est une petite partie.\n\nOr, les incendies actuels en Californie (o\u00f9 ca br\u00fble s\u00e9v\u00e8rement aussi) conduisent \u00e0 des \u00e9missions qui suppriment le matelas de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 pr\u00e9vu pour un si\u00e8cle pour les projets dans la r\u00e9gion, explique cet article du FT. \n\nQuestion : en pareil cas, est-ce que la \"non validit\u00e9 des cr\u00e9dits\" remonte jusqu'\u00e0 l'entreprise qui les a achet\u00e9s et l'oblige \u00e0 communiquer comme quoi \"elle n'est plus neutre\" ? La r\u00e9ponse est non : aucune entreprise ayant clam\u00e9 urbi et orbi qu'elle \u00e9tait neutre ne corrige le tir en expliquant que ce n'est plus le cas. \n\nMais ce n'est pas tr\u00e8s grave au fond, puisque de toute fa\u00e7on la revendication initiale n'\u00e9tait pas valide (et heureusement ce point de vue se g\u00e9n\u00e9ralise). Plus que jamais il est essentiel de bien s\u00e9parer les deux natures d'obligations qu'il faut mettre \u00e0 la charge des entreprises : d'une part les obliger \u00e0 r\u00e9duire leurs \u00e9missions, et \u00e0 adapter leurs produits \u00e0 un monde o\u00f9 les \u00e9missions d\u00e9croissent, ET en parall\u00e8le les obliger \u00e0 contribuer \u00e0 la restauration et au d\u00e9veloppement des puits, mais sans fongibilit\u00e9 entre les deux." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6961252296752050176,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6961252297595084800,urn:li:activity:6961252297595084800,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 124, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6961252297595084800,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6960900504839188480,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y est question de mortalit\u00e9 de masse, d'effondrement \u00e9conomique, de conflits, et de \"catastrophes en s\u00e9rie\".\n\nEst-ce dans un roman de science fiction, comme par exemple \"Symphonie Atomique\" (https://bit.ly/3BBDR4B ), une dystopie d\u00e9crivant un \"monde d'apr\u00e8s\" qui ne semble pas sp\u00e9cialement app\u00e9tissant ?\n\nEst-ce dans la bouche d'un militant \u00e9cologiste, comme par exemple celui qui d\u00e9gonfle des pneus de SUV la nuit dans Paris ? (https://bit.ly/3Qksrq4 )\n\nEst-ce dans la bouche des m\u00e9t\u00e9orologues quand ils \u00e9voquent les canicules, ce qui expliquerait qu'ils soient ensuite l'objet de messages violents et injurieux de la part d'une partie des gens qui les \u00e9coutent ? (https://bit.ly/3BCy0fr )\n\nPas du tout, pas du tout, comme le chantait Dutronc : c'est dans la tr\u00e8s s\u00e9rieuse revue scientifique am\u00e9ricaine \"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences\", qui publie un article expliquant que nous faisons une erreur en basant de fait notre gestion des risques uniquement sur ce qui est certain \u00e0 court terme dans les cons\u00e9quences \u00e0 venir du changement climatique.\n\nLes auteurs rel\u00e8vent \u00e0 bon droit deux points essentiels.\n\nLe premier est que, \u00e0 force de nous r\u00e9p\u00e9ter en boucle que le changement climatique va \u00eatre limit\u00e9 sous la barre dangereuse par le fruit de nos politiques publiques de croissance verte, nous ne pr\u00e9parons rien pour l'\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 - h\u00e9las plus que probable - o\u00f9 ce ne sera pas le cas. De fait, voir l'Europe \"relancer le charbon\" en pleine canicule (https://bit.ly/3JvHZFd ) ou le parlement fran\u00e7ais d\u00e9taxer les carburants et le fioul dans le m\u00eame contexte montre bien que pour le moment nous nous payons trop souvent de mots.\n\nLe second est que le climat ne va pas changer \"toutes choses \u00e9gales par ailleurs\". Dans le m\u00eame temps, il y aura aussi des troubles locaux croissants par p\u00e9nurie de ressources (alimentaires, environnementales, \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, m\u00e9talliques, etc), et les sc\u00e9narios avec des contraintes multiples sont absentes de la litt\u00e9rature scientifique. Ce n'est pas dans l'article, mais l'exemple typique est d'imaginer faire face \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive climatique avec une \u00e9conomie qui continue \u00e0 \"bien se porter\" alors m\u00eame que les ressources environnementales et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, et la stabilit\u00e9 politique baissent. C'est exactement ce qui se trouve dans tous les \"plans\" 1,5 ou 2\u00b0C...\n\nEn cons\u00e9quence les auteurs appellent \u00e0 ce que nous apprenions \u00e0 imaginer des futurs avec des \"catastrophes en s\u00e9rie\". Cela rejoint un propos que j'ai souvent tenu sur la \"transition\" : il faut que celle-ci soit compatible avec une \u00e9conomie en contraction, sans exiger d'\u00e9conomie en croissance, et qu'elle soit \"r\u00e9siliente aux aleas\" qui malheureusement ne rel\u00e8vent m\u00eame pas de l'improbable (baisse des chaines d'approvisionnement mondiales, d\u00e9p\u00e9rissement partiel de la biomasse, crises financi\u00e8res, etc). \n\nMais pour le moment l'essentiel du monde acad\u00e9mique continue \u00e0 garder des oeill\u00e8res rassurantes sur les \u00e9volutions \"hors climat\". Cet appel \u00e0 les enlever doit \u00eatre entendu." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6960900504839188480,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6960900505757704193,urn:li:activity:6960900505757704193,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 99, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6960900505757704193,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6960900505757704193,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Pas qu'en France, mais un peu partout en Europe. Combien plus grave que d'habitude est la situation ? Le Joint Research Centre de la Commission Europ\u00e9enne maintient un site o\u00f9 il est possible de consulter des statistiques, agr\u00e9g\u00e9es sur l'Europe ou d\u00e9taill\u00e9es par pays, qui donnent les surfaces d\u00e9j\u00e0 br\u00fbl\u00e9es : https://lnkd.in/eDws4Uye\n\nLe graphique r\u00e9capitulatif nous apprend que 600.000 hectares ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 br\u00fbl\u00e9 au sein de l'Union, soit quasiment 5 fois plus que la moyenne des 15 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es \u00e0 la m\u00eame \u00e9poque, et surtout quasiment le double du record pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode (NB : 2003 n'est pas incluse dans la s\u00e9rie de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence, or cela avait \u00e9t\u00e9 une ann\u00e9e avec beaucoup de feux aussi).\n\nSans surprise, ce sont plut\u00f4t des pays du Sud ou de l'Est du continent (Espagne, Portugal, Roumanie, Italie, et les pays des Balkans) qui sont les plus touch\u00e9s. La France bat aussi son record sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode (2006 - 2015, mais \u00e0 nouveau sans 2003).\n\nLes pays europ\u00e9ens hors EU y ajoutent plus de 500.000 hectares br\u00fbl\u00e9s, dont 380.000 en Ukraine, o\u00f9 il est probable que le conflit d\u00e9sorganise les secours quand un foyer se d\u00e9clare (et les charges explosives doivent d\u00e9clencher des incendies au moins aussi facilement qu'un promeneur n\u00e9gligent...).\n\nIl n'y a \u00e9videmment pas que la s\u00e9cheresse qui est n\u00e9cessaire pour d\u00e9clencher un incendie. Il faut un \u00e9v\u00e9nement externe : coup de foudre, n\u00e9gligence, ou... intention de nuire. Et le facteur humain est largement pr\u00e9pond\u00e9rant dans le d\u00e9clenchement de feux.\n\nCertains comportements appel\u00e9s \"n\u00e9gligence\" sont du reste assez proches de l'intention de nuire, comme par exemple jeter un m\u00e9got de sa voiture en ce moment. Or, un fumeur sur quatre d\u00e9clare le faire de temps \u00e0 autres : https://lnkd.in/eebJ3VWD\n\nLe Code Civil, dans son article 1240, stipule que \u201cTout fait quelconque de l\u2019homme, qui cause \u00e0 autrui un dommage, oblige celui par la faute duquel il est arriv\u00e9 \u00e0 le r\u00e9parer\u201d. Question : quand on a mis le feu \u00e0 une for\u00eat qui, au mieux, met 50 ans \u00e0 se reconstituer, et au pire ne reviendra jamais \u00e0 cause du changement climatique ou d'autres pressions (on en profite pour \"am\u00e9nager\"), que signifie la r\u00e9paration ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6960525680430215168,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6960525681399054336,urn:li:activity:6960525681399054336,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 76, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6960525681399054336,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6960525681399054336,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", 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"miniProfile": { "firstName": "Sylvestre", "lastName": "Huet", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAO9iBUBrJPOAiOLpOa49uUAlKWtP2fcD94", "occupation": "journaliste scientifique ind\u00e9pendant", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:62752789", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAAO9iBUBrJPOAiOLpOa49uUAlKWtP2fcD94", "publicIdentifier": "sylvestre-huet-33102319", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1516799797874?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=EbEU2mNNzL8mKmONMhbMHNFmXxw4meytDPaHz_MATgo", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1516799797874?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=GDoTL8oxbkf3tJEVDqabrbXUmJR2LKj_RooRjFciB8M", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1516799797874?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=FgHh1elDkGpv6AwfMHleG8pA04ZVPo8pq1D_XGsjzRA", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1516799797874?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=T8ijLFU3JAQPQkggh0ncWe1Zl8EPa1PW9KAmiEDNgYI", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D03AQGLl4HX_4m5Yw/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "TzfcHUjkTu6kP5rCXW5HhA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Sylvestre Huet vient de publier une analyse d'un r\u00e9cent rapport de l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie sur l'avenir du nucl\u00e9aire : https://bit.ly/3zMUj0y\n\nOn y trouve quelques graphiques tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressants. \n\nTout d'abord un premier, reproduit en commentaire, situe la vision de l'AIE (sur le nucl\u00e9aire) dans l'ensemble des sc\u00e9narios recens\u00e9s par le GIEC (rappelons que ce dernier ne produit aucun sc\u00e9nario, mais recense ceux qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9s). On voit que l'AIE, par ailleurs tr\u00e8s optimiste sur les modes de production diffus et non pilotables (vent et soleil), beaucoup plus demandeurs de m\u00e9taux que les modes concentr\u00e9s (cette \"intensit\u00e9 en m\u00e9taux\" est en train de faire remonter leurs couts un peu partout), est plut\u00f4t conservatrice sur l'atome, postulant en quelque sorte qu'il sera plus difficile de s'affranchir des limites pour ce qui concerne notre volont\u00e9 et nos comp\u00e9tences que pour ce qui concerne des ressources physiques. On verra ce qu'il en sera !\n\nLe second est celui en illustration et donne, pour tous les pays qui ont construit des r\u00e9acteurs, et sur la p\u00e9riode 1967-2021, les temps de construction moyen (je suppose pour l'ensemble des r\u00e9acteurs construits, qu'ils soient encore en service ou pas), ainsi que les dur\u00e9es maximales et minimales.\n\nOn y constate :\n- qu'il y a quasiment un facteur 10 entre le temps de construction le plus long (plus de 20 ans en Argentine et aux USA) et le plus court (environ 3 ans aux USA et en Russie)\n- que la Chine, qui dispose actuellement du programme le plus important, est \u00e0 5 ans en moyenne, avec un max \u00e0 11\n- que, sur une grande s\u00e9rie (cas par exemple de la France, de la Russie, de la Chine) il est raisonnable de compter sur une dur\u00e9e moyenne inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 10 ans, et m\u00eame proche de 6 ou 7 si on ne cherche pas \u00e0 se surprot\u00e9ger contre des risques faibles.\n\nLe rapport lui-m\u00eame (https://bit.ly/3oNlPVj ) donne d'autres indications int\u00e9ressantes :\n- sur les 5 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es les nouveaux chantiers ont \u00e9t\u00e9 quasi-exclusivement le fait de la Chine et de la Russie\n- en fonction du \"cout de l'argent\" (le taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat qu'il faut verser chaque ann\u00e9e aux pourvoyeurs de fonds - actionnaires et banquiers - qui am\u00e8nent l'argent n\u00e9cessaire \u00e0 la construction) le nucl\u00e9aire peut \u00eatre la moins ch\u00e8re ou la plus ch\u00e8re des technologies d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es pilotables (la conclusion logique est donc qu'il faut que ce cout de l'argent soit bas, et donc que le nucl\u00e9aire soit mis en oeuvre par des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d'\u00e9tat)\n- au sein des nouveaux chantiers, Flamanville bat des records de d\u00e9passement de dur\u00e9e et de budget par rapport \u00e0 l'estimation initiale : le probl\u00e8me est donc fran\u00e7ais avant tout\n\nIncidemment on apprend aussi (page 46 du rapport ; graphique en commentaire) que dans le sc\u00e9nario Net Zero de l'AIE il y aurait 5000 GW de puissance \u00e9lectrique de stockage dans le monde en 2050. Cette derni\u00e8re est d'environ 150 GW actuellement et est constitu\u00e9 \u00e0 99% de barrages r\u00e9versibles. C'est pas gagn\u00e9..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6960172039819124736,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6960172040767029248,urn:li:activity:6960172040767029248,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 34, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6960172040767029248,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6960172040767029248,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6960172040767029248", "threadId": 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\u00e9taient \u00e0 disposition pour distribuer du revenu aux m\u00e9nages (de telle sorte que l'entreprise n'est jamais assur\u00e9e de garder pour elle l'argent qui provient de ses ventes ; autant pour sa cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re !), apr\u00e8s que l'Europe ait impos\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricien national de vendre \u00e0 perte un quart puis un tiers de sa production, soit disant pour am\u00e9liorer la situation du consommateur (ce qui ne va pas emp\u00eacher ce dernier de payer partout en Europe son \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 les yeux de la t\u00eate, parce que les \u00e9conomistes lib\u00e9raux ne savent pas ce qu'est un r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique : https://lnkd.in/dfDBiw6J ), l'actionnaire d\u00e9couvre qu'il n'y a pas pl\u00e9thore de candidat(e)s pour aller d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment se mettre la rate au court-bouillon dans le bazar qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9 par la puissance publique. Mais c'est le contraire qui eut \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9tonnant...\n\nLes probl\u00e8mes industriels d'EDF trouveront une solution avec le temps si le cadre est stable et pertinent (adjectifs que l'on peut mettre dans l'autre ordre). Mais cela suppose de ne plus prendre le nucl\u00e9aire en otage de d\u00e9cisions qui changent tous les 5 ans, et de ne pas consid\u00e9rer l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 comme un bien marchand ordinaire, contrairement aux vues actuelles de la Commission. \n\nSi l'actionnaire veut un(e) candidat(e) de valeur, il doit d'abord balayer devant sa porte (et celle de la Commission, dont les d\u00e9cisions ne sont pas totalement d\u00e9connect\u00e9es des lignes rouges fix\u00e9es par notre pays). 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Cela signifie que, pour cr\u00e9er un dollar (en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral la monnaie utilis\u00e9e quand on parle de l'\u00e9conomie mondiale) de production finale, on utilise de moins en moins de \"tout\", et notamment d'\u00e9nergie ou de ressources.\n\nEn pareil cas, avec le temps, pour produire un dollar de fourchettes, d'enveloppes, de plantes en pot, de logement, de volets ou de sandales, l'appareil productif a demand\u00e9 moins d'\u00e9nergie, et/ou moins de fer, de cuivre, de plastique, ou d'azote.\n\nMais il y a un domaine dans lequel cette croyance s'av\u00e8re inexacte : l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. La courbe suivante (de votre serviteur, sur donn\u00e9es BP Statistical Review et Banque Mondiale) indique quelle quantit\u00e9 d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 est n\u00e9cessaire pour produire un dollar (constant, donc d\u00e9flat\u00e9) de biens et services en moyenne mondiale. \n\nLa r\u00e9ponse saute aux yeux : c'\u00e9tait 0,3 kWh en 1985... et 0,3 kWh en 2021. Aucune diff\u00e9rence entre les deux dates ; aucun gain sur la p\u00e9riode. Dit autrement, il y a eu z\u00e9ro gain d'efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9lectrique de l'\u00e9conomie. \n\nIl serait int\u00e9ressant de creuser la raison de cette stabilit\u00e9 (ce que je n'ai pas fait). S'il s'av\u00e8re qu'il y a derri\u00e8re une limite \"dure\" (ce qui est probable), cela signifie alors que, plus encore pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 que pour les autres flux physiques, la \"croissance verte\" est impossible. \n\nUne baisse de la production \u00e9lectrique (inexorable avec la baisse massive des combustibles fossiles, et pour le coup surtout du charbon et du gaz) signifiera n\u00e9cessairement une baisse du PIB. On peut r\u00e9sumer par : moins d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 = moins de machines \u00e9lectriques = moins de transformation = moins d'\u00e9conomie.\n\nFace \u00e0 ce constat, 2 options : comprendre, avoir des outils prospectifs qui int\u00e8grent ce fait, et planifier en cons\u00e9quence. Ou continuer \u00e0 r\u00eaver avec des mod\u00e8les \u00e9conomiques d\u00e9connect\u00e9s de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 physique. Tout personne \"de bon sens\" dira que c'est la premi\u00e8re option qu'il faut suivre. Malheureusement cela fait un certain temps que nous suivons la seconde..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6959776350601650176,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6959776351377616896,urn:li:activity:6959776351377616896,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 119, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6959776351377616896,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6959776351377616896,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Nous avons eu une vague de chaleur puis une autre, sur terre (https://bit.ly/3vsUziG ) et dans la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e (https://bit.ly/3zdDZEo ). La v\u00e9g\u00e9tation br\u00fble ou d\u00e9p\u00e9rit, les animaux meurent de chaud ou de soif, les b\u00e2timents se fissurent, le niveau des cours d'eau est bas \u00e0 tr\u00e8s bas (https://bit.ly/3JgUF2H), et les r\u00e9coltes diminuent (https://bit.ly/3QckfrT ).\n\nLes Saoudiens viennent d'annoncer que leur pic de production de p\u00e9trole \u00e9tait en vue (https://bloom.bg/3SpBCYa ), apr\u00e8s les russes qui l'ont pass\u00e9 (plus d'un quart du p\u00e9trole mondial \u00e0 eux deux). Le gaz va manquer, et il est fort possible que nous ayons \u00e0 relativement bref d\u00e9lai un probl\u00e8me sur le cuivre (https://bit.ly/3PSTmJF ).\n\nMais en fait tout va bien. Les d\u00e9crets d'attribution des nouveaux ministres - ou des ministres aux comp\u00e9tences remani\u00e9es - du gouvernement Borne 2 viennent de sortir. Ces textes donnent aux ministres leur \"feuille de route\", et, m\u00eame si nous ne sommes pas dans le \"juridiquement contraignant\", ils refl\u00e8tent les priorit\u00e9s. \n\nR\u00e9sultat des courses : ces d\u00e9crets continuent \u00e0 \u00eatre r\u00e9dig\u00e9s comme s'il n'y avait toujours pas de limites plan\u00e9taires. Ces derni\u00e8res n'existent donc pas pour notre gouvernement.\n\nPar exemple, le d\u00e9cret concernant Bruno Le Maire ne mentionne pas les mots climat, p\u00e9trole, ressources, m\u00e9taux, d\u00e9carbonation : https://bit.ly/3vwvLpZ . Ce d\u00e9cret ne mentionne pas plus la r\u00e9silience \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper face au changement climatique. Par contre notre ami doit \"promouvoir la croissance\", ce qui laisse entendre que ca ne d\u00e9pend que de nous (on verra...).\n\nCes mots - climat p\u00e9trole etc - ne figurent pas plus dans les attributions de Pap Ndiaye (Education Nationale ; https://bit.ly/3zo3va3), Cl\u00e9ment Beaune (transports ; https://bit.ly/3zhydlr), Olivier Klein (ville et logement ; https://bit.ly/3vq51Yo), Carole Grandjean (formation professionnelle ; https://bit.ly/3oFTQqz), et j'en passe.\n\nLa promotion de l'usage durable des ressources \u00e9choit \u00e0 Christophe B\u00e9chu (https://bit.ly/3vQJBnx) alors qu'il n'a quasiment pas autorit\u00e9 sur les utilisateurs desdites ressources (les entreprises). Et le mot d\u00e9carbonation n'appara\u00eet pas plus dans sa feuille de route.\n\nDans \"Collapse\", Jared Diamond tente une nomenclature des facteurs qui peuvent amener une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 s'effondrer. L'un d'entre eux est \"une r\u00e9ponse politique ou culturelle inadapt\u00e9e\" \u00e0 des probl\u00e8mes externes ou internes. 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Avec plus de 40000ha de v\u00e9g\u00e9tation br\u00fbl\u00e9s, l'ann\u00e9e 2022 bat des records de pr\u00e9cocit\u00e9 et d'intensit\u00e9 depuis..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "\"IL A TOUJOURS FAIT CHAUD EN \u00c9T\u00c9 !\" | LIMIT #canicule" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6959170565861449728,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 253, "length": 10, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Vinz", "lastName": "Kant\u00e9", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABnoaesBFyeDnfMQ7vVH_WdqzzSE1gZnFeI", "occupation": "Cr\u00e9ateur, Animateur, Prod, conf\u00e9rencier chez #LIMIT #SchoolUp \ud83c\udf0d\ud83d\udc9a", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:434661867", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAABnoaesBFyeDnfMQ7vVH_WdqzzSE1gZnFeI", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1643988095695?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=7C2zsu2AnUIGYGJLxdwy6H0Pfz49i4bCG42UTyrDQiU", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1643988095695?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=4mbItdC9wOaAB8PKJJb-Yb_-TvLU7cJhmTKvMc1TnoE", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 350 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E16AQGwWxvh-yImnw/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_" } }, "publicIdentifier": "vinzkante", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1652368741388?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=oBVj0OP183lIxUjW-ObsX93mvqUUhnlf8CUv9CYdkL8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1652368741388?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=QLthymcqCv14W4AiYsuUqj2QbfpGNDM6Pj43wuQjwBY", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1652368741388?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=qpYGcnw-PgEP8UZgyFGsOXkDPZUoHvFO1KR2QFlKBb4", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1652368741388?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=_jJyLbpMGXX6ocxEt866mRbwvojncDU-oE19Bdveik8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E03AQFVgbwuDHeE9Q/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "iO8N/CWmQ1uBucXeQHd0nQ==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Les esprits chagrins lui reprocheront de ne pas faire de propositions et de se contenter de se moquer, mais il faut dire que la tentation est tr\u00e8s forte pour un certain nombre d'absurdit\u00e9s ou de paradoxes \u00e9voqu\u00e9s dans cette vid\u00e9o \"sp\u00e9ciale canicule\" de Vinz Kant\u00e9. \n\nVinz, c'est l'homme \u00e0 la casquette \u00e0 l'envers qui ne fait pas du \"rap climatique\" (ca c'est la sp\u00e9cialit\u00e9 de Baba Brinkman, un must si vous ne l'avez pas d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu : https://lnkd.in/epMe6y82 ), mais de la vulgarisation climatique et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique comme s'il parlait \u00e0 une classe de coll\u00e9giens, et du coup c'est limpide (et tr\u00e8s bien imag\u00e9). \n\nEvidemment, l'id\u00e9al serait que Vinz soit au ch\u00f4mage (d\u00e9sol\u00e9 :) ) parce que les \"d\u00e9cideurs\" \u00e9viteraient de dire des choses incoh\u00e9rentes ou absurdes, et que le probl\u00e8me soit en bonne voie d'\u00eatre r\u00e9gl\u00e9. 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"text": "Entre une canicule, une s\u00e9cheresse historique en Europe, une p\u00e9nurie de gaz et un MWh \u00e9lectrique \u00e0 400 euros, si vous \u00eates hollandais(e) il y a au moins une bonne nouvelle : gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la publication du Monde sans Fin en n\u00e9erlandais, vous comprendrez que tout cela est normal. Avouez que c'est quand m\u00eame un sacr\u00e9 soulagement !\n\nApr\u00e8s la version allemande (https://lnkd.in/eHa2NEnX ) et anglaise (https://lnkd.in/e4zr_Pgh ), en en attendant les 8 autres traductions en cours (italien, portugais, 2 espagnols - catalan et castillan, croate, polonais, vietnamien et cor\u00e9en), l'une des patries de naissance de la Royal Dutch Shell peut b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier \u00e0 son tour du trait de crayon de Christophe Blain.\n\nLa sortie est \u00e9videmment trop r\u00e9cente pour savoir comment vont r\u00e9agir les clients de ce pays, mais en Allemagne on a vu appara\u00eetre les m\u00eames comportements qu'en France, \u00e0 savoir des achats pour offrir. Du reste le premier tirage, certes beaucoup plus modeste qu'en France (5000 exemplaires quand m\u00eame, c'est \u00e0 dire autant que les ventes totales de mon premier essai, qui date d'il y a 20 ans... : https://lnkd.in/eGXHDmU3 ) a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9puis\u00e9 en 2 mois seulement.\n\nJe ne sais pas si nous aurons la chance d'\u00eatre lus par des \"d\u00e9cideurs\", comme cela a \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas en France (ce que je sais par de nombreux t\u00e9moignages directs), et moins encore si cela changera quoi que ce soit \u00e0 leurs arbitrages ensuite (en France ca n'est pas - encore ? - tr\u00e8s probant sur ce plan l\u00e0...), mais en tous cas c'est le but.\n\nJ'allais oublier l'essentiel : la couverture est ton sur ton avec le sable de la plage. 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\u00a9 M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8310397168542597030)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8310397168542597030)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "meteofrance.com \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Juillet 2022 le mois de juillet le plus sec jamais enregistr\u00e9 by meteofrance.com", "actionTarget": "https://meteofrance.com/actualites-et-dossiers/actualites/climat/juillet-2022-le-mois-de-juillet-le-plus-sec-jamais-enregistre" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Juillet 2022 le mois de juillet le plus sec jamais enregistr\u00e9" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6958482977169227776,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "En juillet il n'a pas seulement fait chaud en France m\u00e9tropolitaine : il a aussi fait tr\u00e8s sec. Exceptionnellement sec m\u00eame, puisque juillet 2022 s'appr\u00eate \u00e0 \u00eatre le mois de juillet le plus sec depuis le d\u00e9but des relev\u00e9s, et le 2\u00e8 mois le plus sec derri\u00e8re mars 1961. \n\nLa s\u00e9cheresse des sols est qualifi\u00e9e d'exceptionnelle par M\u00e9t\u00e9o France (en plus du niveau des nappes qui est bas). Ceci allant avec cela les restrictions aux usages de l'eau se multiplient (https://lnkd.in/gG9eZM8 )\n\nCela est malheureusement raccord avec l'\u00e9volution pr\u00e9vue pour notre pays \u00e0 l'avenir : un d\u00e9ficit de pr\u00e9cipitations estivales, et une s\u00e9cheresse des sols qui va augmenter. V\u00e9g\u00e9tation et cultures vont devenir plus vuln\u00e9rables, et il n'est pas sur que les particuliers puissent toujours r\u00e9pondre au manque d'eau et aux fortes chaleurs en s'\u00e9quipant de piscines individuelles...\n\nCette mauvaise nouvelle suppl\u00e9mentaire n'emp\u00eache cependant pas nos d\u00e9put\u00e9s de voter des subventions au fioul et \u00e0 l'essence sans conditions de revenus (https://lnkd.in/eSZXHR9E ), ou Nice de vouloir augmenter son trafic a\u00e9rien (https://lnkd.in/ek7s7cZ9 )...\n\nPeut-\u00eatre qu'avant de prendre du service comme am\u00e9nageur d'infrastructures ou d\u00e9put\u00e9, il faudrait que les int\u00e9ress\u00e9(e)s fassent obligatoirement un stage de quelques mois dans une caserne de pompiers, ou dans tout autre endroit souffrant fortement du manque d'eau ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6958482977169227776,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"editableAccessibilityText": true, "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "accessibilityText": "No alternative text description for this image" } ], "showTemplateCta": false } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6957961701912629248,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Si nous \u00e9mettons trop de CO2 au titre de notre utilisation de l'\u00e9nergie - c'est \u00e0 dire des machines - dans le monde, une des solutions qui vient de mani\u00e8re \u00e9vidente \u00e0 l'esprit est de d\u00e9carboner l'\u00e9nergie, c'est \u00e0 dire soit d'utiliser une \u00e9nergie fossile qui \u00e9met moins qu'une autre \u00e9nergie fossile (du gaz \u00e0 la place du charbon pour produire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 par exemple), soit d'utiliser une \u00e9nergie d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e (nucl\u00e9aire ou ENR) \u00e0 la place d'une \u00e9nergie fossile. \n\nNotons qu'utiliser une \u00e9nergie d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e EN PLUS d'une d'\u00e9nergie carbon\u00e9e qui subsiste ne r\u00e9sout pas le probl\u00e8me. C'est bien \"\u00e0 la place\" et pas \"en empilement\" que les \u00e9nergies d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es sont une solution.\n\nPour voir si nous progressons dans la bonne direction, un des indicateurs utiles est de regarder combien de CO2 est \u00e9mis en moyenne dans le monde quand nous utilisons un kWh d'\u00e9nergie dite primaire, c'est \u00e0 dire celle qui est pr\u00e9lev\u00e9e dans l'environnement (voir l'explication sur https://lnkd.in/gDu8smE ).\n\nC'est exactement ce qui est repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 sur le graphique ci-dessous, \u00e0 partir de donn\u00e9es BP STatistical Review (ne cherchez pas le r\u00e9sultat dans le tableur propos\u00e9 par BP ; la \"cuisine\" est de votre serviteur). Ce que l'on voit \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence est :\n- que cette valeur descendait tr\u00e8s doucement entre 1965 - d\u00e9but de la s\u00e9rie disponible - et la fin du 20\u00e8 si\u00e8cle\n- que le d\u00e9but du 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle, \u00e0 savoir l'essor de la Chine (50% du charbon mondial \u00e0 elle seule), correspond \u00e0 une d\u00e9gradation de cet indicateur\n- que de 2010 \u00e0 2020 il y a eu une petite am\u00e9lioration (pas tellement plus rapide que celle des ann\u00e9es 1965 \u00e0 1995)\n- et que de 2020 \u00e0 2021 il y a eu une petite d\u00e9gradation (reprise post covid = combustibles fossiles \u00e0 la hausse).\n\nSi on ne comptait que sur cet indicateur pour devenir \"neutres en carbone\" d'ici \u00e0 2050 (donc pas de diminution de l'\u00e9nergie consomm\u00e9e mais juste une d\u00e9carbonation totale de l'\u00e9nergie) il faudrait que cet indicateur passe \u00e0 0 en 28 ans. \n\nRappelons que, via les biens import\u00e9s, nous importons des \u00e9missions d'ailleurs. Du coup la v\u00e9ritable neutralit\u00e9 d'un pays s'obtient quand non seulement les \u00e9missions directes du pays ne sont pas sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 ses puits, mais aussi quand ses importations viennent de pays qui ob\u00e9issent \u00e0 la m\u00eame r\u00e8gle (sinon il suffit de tout externaliser !).\n\nQuestion : qui pense que nous allons mondialement mettre cet indicateur \u00e0 z\u00e9ro en 28 ans ? Toute personne qui consid\u00e8re que la r\u00e9ponse est \"nous n'y arriverons pas\" doit alors accepter la contrepartie logique : pour arriver \u00e0 des \u00e9missions nulles, il va surtout falloir baisser l'\u00e9nergie, donc les machines en service, donc la production, donc.... le pouvoir d'achat.\n\nEt toute personne qui pense que nous allons y arriver doit en faire la d\u00e9monstration par autre chose qu'une profession de foi. Car l'\u00e9nergie c'est physique, pas juste un d\u00e9bat d'id\u00e9es !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6957961701912629248,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6957961702734712832,urn:li:activity:6957961702734712832,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 104, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6957961702734712832,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6957961702734712832,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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fran\u00e7ais(es) n'est qu'un effet de langage. Dans les faits, notre mode de vie est devenu de plus en plus mat\u00e9riel alors m\u00eame que la part des services dans l'emploi a augment\u00e9 : par habitant, nous consommons bien plus de m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s, voitures, meubles, mat\u00e9riel de cuisine, v\u00eatements, jeux, mat\u00e9riel de bricolage, cosm\u00e9tiques ou plats cuisin\u00e9s qu'il y a quelques d\u00e9cennies. \n\nNous avons tout simplement fait de plus en plus appel \u00e0 des usines situ\u00e9es en dehors du pays. Du coup, les \u00e9missions (et les consommations de mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res) d\u00e9coulant de notre mode de vie prennent de plus en plus place \u00e0 l'ext\u00e9rieur. \n\nAjouter les \u00e9missions que nous occasionnons directement chez nous (par exemple en utilisant une chaudi\u00e8re \u00e0 gaz) et celles qui ont eu lieu \u00e0 l'\u00e9tranger pour nous permettre d'acheter ou d'utiliser un objet import\u00e9 porte un nom : cela s'appelle l'empreinte carbone.\n\nEn Europe, nous indique l'INSEE, les importations sont \u00e0 l'origine d'un tiers de notre empreinte carbone. C'est bien plus que cela en France (plus de la moiti\u00e9), mais cela est notamment du \u00e0 nos \u00e9missions domestiques plus faibles gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une production \u00e9lectrique tr\u00e8s faiblement \u00e9mettrice de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. \n\nPour la m\u00eame raison, la France poss\u00e8de une empreinte carbone par habitant plus basse que la moyenne europ\u00e9enne. Les allemands sont par contre bien au-dessus : l'empreinte carbone personnelle y est de 50% sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 ce qu'elle est pour la France. \n\nEt, par d\u00e9finition, cela ne peut pas \u00eatre li\u00e9 \u00e0 leurs exportations, puisque les \u00e9missions de production de ces derni\u00e8res ne figurent pas dans l'empreinte carbone, qui ne regarde que ce qui sert \u00e0 la consommation finale int\u00e9rieure. Au demeurant nos voisins du Nord importent plus d'\u00e9missions qu'ils n'en exportent, comme nous.\n\nLorsque la cible de 2 tonnes d'\u00e9missions par personne et par an est \u00e9voqu\u00e9e, comme il s'agit d'une moyenne mondiale, cela signifie que c'est bien pour l'empreinte carbone que cela doit \u00eatre notre objectif, et non pour les \u00e9missions domestiques uniquement. Il faut donc diviser les \u00e9missions li\u00e9es \u00e0 notre mode de vie par 5 d'ici \u00e0 2050. Cela fait 5,6% de baisse par an. Or, en 20 ans (de 1995 \u00e0 2015), cet indicateur n'avait pas boug\u00e9 : https://lnkd.in/e2JVxPkx\n\nDepuis l'entr\u00e9e en vigueur de la convention climat (en 1995) nous avons essentiellement dit qu'il fallait faire quelque chose. Mais \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s rien fait dans la bonne direction." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6957445496168714240,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6957445497661890560,urn:li:activity:6957445497661890560,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 65, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6957445497661890560,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6957445497661890560,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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hausse du prix des carburants, ce sera donc la mesure qui avantage le plus les plus ais\u00e9s (voir https://lnkd.in/ezw96qjH ) qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 retenue pour faire l'objet d'un compromis avec Les R\u00e9publicains (pourquoi avec eux du reste ?).\n\nC'est la derni\u00e8re \u00e9tape en date d'une tr\u00e8s longue s\u00e9rie de mesures que les pouvoirs publics ont prises en pratique pour favoriser la voiture individuelle, quand bien m\u00eame ils professaient l'inverse dans les discours :\n\n- la \"vignette\", qui \u00e9tait un imp\u00f4t bas\u00e9 sur la d\u00e9tention d'une voiture, et qui augmentait avec la puissance - donc la consommation - du v\u00e9hicule, a \u00e9t\u00e9 supprim\u00e9e en 2000. C'est le pr\u00e9sident de la COP 15 - Fabius, premier ministre \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque - qui s'en est charg\u00e9, alors que c'\u00e9tait l'imp\u00f4t le plus \u00e9colo qui soit : https://lnkd.in/eatmGwGP\n\n- le malus \u00e0 l'achat - tr\u00e8s modeste substitut de cette vignette - n'a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 vraiment dissuasif pour l'essentiel des v\u00e9hicules, qui \u00e9taient pourtant d\u00e9j\u00e0 trop consommateurs de carburant au regard de ce que l'avenir nous r\u00e9servait\n\n- les consommations normalis\u00e9es des v\u00e9hicules ont toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s inf\u00e9rieures \u00e0 la consommation en conditions normales, leurrant ainsi le consommateur et le poussant indirectement \u00e0 acheter des v\u00e9hicules plus gourmands\n\n- le remboursement des indemnit\u00e9s kilom\u00e9triques par le fisc augmente avec la taille de la voiture, ce qui conduit en pratique \u00e0 ce que l'Etat subventionne plus les propri\u00e9taires de gros v\u00e9hicules \n\n- les v\u00e9hicules de fonction ont permis \u00e0 pas mal de cadres d'avoir une voiture (g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement cossue) pour moins cher que s'ils l'achetaient eux-m\u00eames \n\n- sans parler bien sur de la reculade sur la taxe carbone, alors m\u00eame que la hausse li\u00e9e \u00e0 cette derni\u00e8re \u00e9tait bien inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 ce que nous payons d\u00e9sormais \u00e0 l'ami Poutine...\n\nUne fois de plus cette r\u00e9action dans l'urgence ne participe d'aucun plan r\u00e9fl\u00e9chi \u00e0 l'avance (alors que la baisse de la disponibilit\u00e9 des carburants est un sujet de mieux en mieux document\u00e9). On met une rustine en esp\u00e9rant que cela sera suffisant... mais sans inscrire la mesure prise dans un plan de long terme. \n\nR\u00e9p\u00e9tons le : d'ici \u00e0 2050 la production mondiale de p\u00e9trole devrait \u00eatre en gros divis\u00e9e par 2 (https://lnkd.in/dwPcgve ). L'Union europ\u00e9enne importe tout son or noir. Climat ou pas, la disponibilit\u00e9 en carburants en France devrait donc \u00eatre divis\u00e9e par 2 \u00e0 10 \u00e0 cet horizon de temps. Ca se g\u00e8rera essentiellement avec des ristournes \u00e0 la pompe ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6957028207736856576,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6957028208764411905,urn:li:activity:6957028208764411905,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 196, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6957028208764411905,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6957028208764411905,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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La carte ci-dessous indique si, par rapport \u00e0 la normale du mois concern\u00e9, la nappe est plus basse ou plus haute, et si elle se remplit ou se vide. \n\nOn voit imm\u00e9diatement que seuls quatre endroits en France avaient, au 1er juillet (donc avant la vague de chaleur actuelle, qui n'est toujours pas termin\u00e9e dans le sud) un niveau normal (vert). \n\nC'est \u00e9videmment pour une large part une cons\u00e9quence du d\u00e9ficit de pr\u00e9cipitations qui a eu lieu au printemps. Si on y rajoute des conditions plus chaudes que la normale ces derniers temps, une autre cons\u00e9quence est que la moiti\u00e9 du territoire europ\u00e9en est en d\u00e9ficit d'humidit\u00e9, et 11% en condition de stress pour la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation : https://lnkd.in/eewXUd-y \n\nLe sud de l'Allemagne, le sud de la France, l'Espagne et l'Italie sont particuli\u00e8rement touch\u00e9s. Cela a pouss\u00e9 le Joint Research Center de la Commission europ\u00e9enne a publier un rapport sur la s\u00e9cheresse qui frappe le continent : https://lnkd.in/eF9cuWFM \n\nLe JRC explique que :\n- le d\u00e9ficit va impacter la production \u00e9lectrique (hydro\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, refroidissement des centrales thermiques plus limit\u00e9 \u00e0 cause des normes sur les temp\u00e9ratures de rejet)\n- il va aussi impacter le rendement des cultures\n- enfin la fourniture d'eau pourrait \u00eatre compromise dans les mois \u00e0 venir (car l'\u00e9t\u00e9 n'est pas termin\u00e9...)\n\nLes cours d'eau \u00e0 un niveau tr\u00e8s bas sont aussi une mauvaise nouvelle pour les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes aquatiques, voire pour ceux des estuaires (car s'il n'y a pas assez d'eau douce qui arrive l'eau sal\u00e9e remonte et ca n'est pas toujours du gout des esp\u00e8ces concern\u00e9es).\n\nRappelons que l'eau c'est la vie. 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En 2021, 11 pays \u00e9taient parvenus \u00e0 obtenir 80% ou plus de leurs \u00e9lectrons avec des sources bas carbone, et seuls 2 sont \u00e0 100% : l'Islande, c'est-\u00e0-dire 350.000 habitants situ\u00e9s sur 100.000 km2 (un cinqui\u00e8me de la France) de montagnes et de sources g\u00e9othermales, et la Norv\u00e8ge, c'est \u00e0 dire 5,4 millions d'habitants, situ\u00e9s sur quasiment 400.000 km2 avec aussi \u00e9norm\u00e9ment de montagnes.\n\nJuste derri\u00e8re viennent des pays ayant certes beaucoup de montagnes, mais qui ont aussi eu recours au nucl\u00e9aire (Su\u00e8de, Suisse, France, Finlande, Canada). Notons que certains de ces pays arrivent aussi dans le peloton de t\u00eate de la consommation d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 par habitant : la consommation \u00e9lectrique par habitant d\u00e9passe par exemple 50.000 kWh par an en Islande (et 29.000 en Norv\u00e8ge, et 16.000 en Su\u00e8de), contre 8.000 en France. \n\nPlus largement, les pays \u00e0 forte contribution hydro\u00e9lectrique sont des pays disposant de beaucoup de montagnes (par habitant) et de grands fleuves. Si l'on est belge ou hollandais, ce sera difficile de compter dessus...\n\nCertains pays tr\u00e8s vent\u00e9s peuvent aussi compter sur une forte contribution de l'\u00e9olien (Danemark, Portugal, Irlande par exemple) mais il faut alors un compl\u00e9ment pilotable qui est soit chez soi, soit chez les voisins (cas notamment du Danemark).\n\nAlors que nucl\u00e9aire, hydro\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ou, dans le cas du Danemark, l'\u00e9olien peuvent atteindre ou d\u00e9passer la moiti\u00e9 de la production nationale, on note que par contre il n'y a pas de pays o\u00f9 le solaire fournisse une contribution majeure. C'est au Chili et en Australie (non repr\u00e9sent\u00e9e sur le graphique car la part \"non fossile\" n'est que de 29%) qu'il \"culmine\" \u00e0 12% de la production \u00e9lectrique nationale (l'Allemagne est \u00e0 9%). \n\nOn voit donc un poids important du relief et de la d\u00e9mographie dans ce graphique. S'en abstraire suppose une grande disponibilit\u00e9 en m\u00e9taux dans les pays plats et dens\u00e9ment peupl\u00e9s, et c'est toute la question de savoir \u00e0 quoi on peut esp\u00e9rer arriver en pareil cas.\n\nGraphique r\u00e9alis\u00e9 avec les donn\u00e9es BP Statistical Review." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6956279760020774913,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6956279760729600000,urn:li:activity:6956279760729600000,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 65, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6956279760729600000,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 39, "length": 15, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Lucie", "lastName": "Robequain", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABHLBQ4BYlsgJFeJL7kqmTzhUPo0g2Jn2EU", "occupation": "Editor-in-chief Les Echos France / International / Investigation", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:298517774", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAABHLBQ4BYlsgJFeJL7kqmTzhUPo0g2Jn2EU", "publicIdentifier": "lucie-robequain-412b8183", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1516921448775?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=MnxyszVwZKYiyb-lIKi3T-CwPKjkzdKGlQuIAuhIqPA", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1516921448775?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=TPr77frN9R98JKCV7aVTfLpwlCyvx_Kb04gKjpCrvmU", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": 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mobilit\u00e9 motoris\u00e9e des classes moyennes et sup\u00e9rieures (car eux peuvent arbitrer d'autres d\u00e9penses qui ne rel\u00e8vent pas du n\u00e9cessaire), soit au moins une grosse moiti\u00e9 du kilom\u00e9trage en voiture dans notre pays.\n\nAu motif d'aider ceux qui vraiment devraient se priver de l'essentiel pour utiliser leur v\u00e9hicule pour aller travailler sans aucune option pour faire diff\u00e9remment \u00e0 court terme, on supprime pour tous les autres un signal qui dit clairement que demain nous aurons moins de p\u00e9trole.\n\nPlus largement, cette ristourne ne s'accompagne d'aucun discours sur la n\u00e9cessaire sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 venir sur les carburants routiers. Rien sur la baisse inexorable de la quantit\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole que nous allons avoir \u00e0 disposition, pour des raisons g\u00e9ologiques (https://bit.ly/3PK99tI ) ou pour des raisons de \"neutralit\u00e9 carbone\". S'il y a un moment o\u00f9 il faut en parler, c'est bien quand le carburant d\u00e9passe 2 euros le litre et que la temp\u00e9rature d\u00e9passe 40\u00b0C !\n\nTroisi\u00e8me faiblesse : le trou dans les finances publiques augmente alors que les taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat remontent. A un moment o\u00f9 \u00e0 un autre la population paiera d'une autre mani\u00e8re le cadeau fait \u00e0 court terme. Mais bon, ce probl\u00e8me n'est que d'argent, \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence du climat et des transports qui sont des probl\u00e8mes \"physiques\".\n\nIl eut \u00e9t\u00e9 bien plus pertinent de faire \u00e0 court terme une aide cibl\u00e9e sous condition de ressources, et de penser en m\u00eame temps (expression brevet\u00e9e) aux moyen d'inciter fortement - voire d'obliger - \u00e0 s'organiser autrement pour l'avenir (covoiturage du quotidien, multimodalit\u00e9 - par exemple covoiturage +autocar, \u00e9ventuellement v\u00e9hicule \u00e9lectrique, etc). C'est peut-\u00eatre plus compliqu\u00e9 \u00e0 mettre en place, mais j'esp\u00e8re que notre gouvernement ne s'imagine pas une seconde que l'avenir va \u00eatre simple.\n\nEnfin cet \u00e9ditorial ne mentionne pas un \u00e9l\u00e9ment suppl\u00e9mentaire : subventionner les carburants c'est subventionner nos importations, donc \u00e0 la fois financer l'effort de guerre de Poutine (dont on ne parle plus de boycotter le p\u00e9trole !) et accro\u00eetre le d\u00e9ficit de la balance commerciale. \n\nFace \u00e0 un d\u00e9ficit inexorable, une aide ne peut qu'\u00eatre transitoire, le temps de s'organiser autrement. O\u00f9, dans la communication gouvernementale, est l'annonce d'une organisation diff\u00e9rente qu'il va imp\u00e9rativement falloir mettre en place ? Incidemment les R\u00e9publicains ne semblent pas avoir les yeux plus en face des trous...\n\nLorsque le gaz viendra \u00e0 manquer cet hiver ou l'hiver d'apr\u00e8s, le gouvernement actuel sera encore en place. Il serait bon qu'il y pense un peu \u00e0 l'avance." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6955792654248902656,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6955792655364587520,urn:li:activity:6955792655364587520,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 76, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6955792655364587520,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6955792655364587520,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Un peu chez nous certes, puisque nous contribuons aux \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires comme tout le monde, mais beaucoup \"ailleurs\". \n\nSur terre, les \u00e9missions de CO2 proviennent d\u00e9sormais avant tout du charbon (voir graphique en commentaire), lequel est \u00e0 l'origine d'un quart des \u00e9missions mondiales de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Et le charbon est un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne \u00e0 80% asiatique - et en particulier chinois, comme le montre ce camembert qui donne la r\u00e9partition de la consommation mondiale de charbon. \n\nEt malheureusement pour nous la consommation de charbon en Asie ne diminue pas : depuis la canicule historique de 2003 elle a doubl\u00e9 (voir autre graphique en commentaire), alors que dans le m\u00eame temps celle de l'Occident a fortement baiss\u00e9. \n\nCe charbon l\u00e0 est largement en dehors de la sph\u00e8re d'influence des occidentaux : les pays qui en utilisent sont essentiellement autosuffisants en ce qui concerne la technologie et le financement (c'est donc facile pour les banques occidentales de \"sortir du charbon\" : c'est une \u00e9nergie qui ne nous concerne que tr\u00e8s peu).\n\nLa seule chose que nous pourrions faire serait de refuser d'acheter tout ce qui vient des exportateurs utilisant du charbon, mais r\u00e9cemment nous avons tout l'inverse : \u00e0 la faveur du covid, les exportations chinoises vers l'Europe ont fait un grand bond en avant...\n\nComment se passer rapidement de charbon ? Ce dernier \u00e9tant utilis\u00e9 aux 2/3 dans la production \u00e9lectrique, la r\u00e9ponse s'appelle sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 (moins utiliser d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et donc moins fabriquer de choses), nucl\u00e9aire et renouvelables. Les deux derni\u00e8res marges de manoeuvre n'y suffiront pas pour une baisse rapide des \u00e9missions : c'est d'abord moins acheter qui doit \u00eatre notre objectif. On verra combien de gens s'en souviendront quand viendra la discussion au parlement sur la loi sur le pouvoir d'achat..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6955418531500826624,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6955418532763287552,urn:li:activity:6955418532763287552,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 175, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6955418532763287552,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6955418532763287552,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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les miles appartiennent \u00e0 l'entreprise...), preuve que le motif d'un vol professionnel n'est pas toujours imp\u00e9rieux non plus !\n\nSi l'on parle CO2, toute personne prenant un long courrier dans l'ann\u00e9e augmente de plusieurs dizaines de % au moins son empreinte carbone individuelle.\n\nL'article ne parle cependant ni de CO2, ni de climat. Il mentionne n\u00e9anmoins des \u00e9l\u00e9ments qui pourraient venir \"assombrir l'horizon\". Il ne s'agit \u00e9videmment pas d'un mauvais jeu de mots avec l'incendie historique en Gironde qui envoie de la fum\u00e9e \u00e0 des dizaines de km des foyers (https://lnkd.in/eyWfME7R), mais de la hausse du prix de l'\u00e9nergie (suppos\u00e9e quand m\u00eame toujours disponible) ou de la fermeture possible des fronti\u00e8res \u00e0 cause du covid. \n\nLa provocation n'est probablement pas d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9e. Mais quand m\u00eame...." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6954820797899145216,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6954820798712840192,urn:li:activity:6954820798712840192,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 151, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6954820798712840192,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6954820798712840192,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6954820798712840192", "threadId": 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La r\u00e9partition des temp\u00e9ratures est inhabituelle : M\u00e9t\u00e9o France pr\u00e9voit 37\u00b0C \u00e0 Brest Lundi mais 31 \u00e0 Nice, et Mardi il fera peut-\u00eatre 40 \u00e0 Londres (le record depuis le d\u00e9but des mesures est actuellement un peu en dessous de 39). La Grande Bretagne vient d'\u00e9mettre sa premi\u00e8re alerte rouge canicule de son histoire, comme l'indique cet article de Time : https://bit.ly/3RHSpoM/ (qui comporte par ailleurs une vid\u00e9o illustrant la canicule avec les images classiques de personnes cherchant \u00e0 se mettre au frais, et qui sont bien trop \"gentillettes\" au regard de ce qui suit).\n\nCes canicules sont certes potentiellement un danger pour les humains. Mais en pareil cas ce sont les autres \u00eatres vivants qui souffrent le plus, et de loin. Eux n'ont pas la possibilit\u00e9 de se mettre au frais (surtout s'ils sont fix\u00e9s par le pied, comme les plantes ou les mollusques de l'estran), de boire plus que d'habitude (surtout s'il fait sec), etc.\n\nUne s\u00e9rie de chercheurs de 'Universit\u00e9 de British Columbia (au Canada) a publi\u00e9 il n'y a pas tr\u00e8s longtemps un bilan de l'impact sur les esp\u00e8ces vivantes du d\u00f4me de chaleur qui a frapp\u00e9 la Colombie Britannique il y a 1 an. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne \"tr\u00e8s extr\u00eame\" - les records ont \u00e9t\u00e9 battus de 5\u00b0C environ - a tu\u00e9 des milliards d'\u00eatres vivants, c'est \u00e0 dire un million de fois plus que le nombre de personnes qui y ont laiss\u00e9 la vie : https://bit.ly/3clEaFT\n\nDans l'ensemble les organismes marins de l'estran - ceux qui vivent dans la zone qui couvre et d\u00e9couvre \u00e0 chaque mar\u00e9e - ont pay\u00e9 un tr\u00e8s lourd tribu : \u00e0 mar\u00e9e basse la temp\u00e9rature du rocher a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les 40\u00b0C, et parfois les 50\u00b0C, tuant massivement les mollusques et crustac\u00e9s expos\u00e9s (\u00e0 plus de 70% pour mes moules par exemple). Les for\u00eats aussi ont souffert, avec pas loin de 100.000 hectares partis en fum\u00e9e. \n\nCela n'est certes pas aussi dramatique que les feux g\u00e9ants qui ont eu lieu en Australie en 2020, et qui ont d\u00e9truit plus de 10 millions d'hectares (et ont aussi supprim\u00e9 des milliards d'animaux), mais ca se voit quand m\u00eame. Les sols nus, soumis \u00e0 la pluie - ordinaire - qui a suivi \u00e0 l'automne ont provoqu\u00e9 des glissements de terrain et des dommages aux infrastructures.\n\nLa reconstitution \u00e0 l'identique des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes concern\u00e9s prendra des d\u00e9cennies... si le climat ne devient pas plus hostile, auquel cas la fr\u00e9quence de ce genre de ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne deviendra trop \u00e9lev\u00e9e pour que les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes puissent se reconstituer. Les arbres seront remplac\u00e9s par des broussailles et les fonds marins qui couvrent et d\u00e9couvrent seront moins peupl\u00e9s... voire pas du tout. \n\nCette vague de chaleur a aussi eu des effets sur l'agriculture et l'\u00e9levage. 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l'Europe - et d'autres r\u00e9gions du monde, y compris les USA : https://lnkd.in/e8BsPyvk - voit un peu partout les cons\u00e9quences d'un climat trop chaud et trop sec (et ca ne va malheureusement pas s'arranger \u00e0 l'avenir : https://lnkd.in/exrFJP86 ), l'industrie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re am\u00e9ricaine continue d'augmenter doucement le nombre de plates-formes de forage horizontal en activit\u00e9, et \u00e0 la suite la production de p\u00e9trole et de gaz de roche m\u00e8re... dont incidemment une partie est lorgn\u00e9e par les europ\u00e9ens \u00e0 cause de la baisse des livraisons russes.\n\nColuche disait \"Quand on pense qu'il suffirait de ne pas les acheter pour que \u00e7a ne se vende plus\" (https://lnkd.in/ewKyDg2g ). De fait, il suffirait de ne plus consommer de p\u00e9trole pour qu'il ne soit plus n\u00e9cessaire d'en extraire du sous-sol. Mais dans le m\u00eame temps o\u00f9 les arbres (et d'autres esp\u00e8ces) meurent, les rivi\u00e8res s'ass\u00e8chent, les cultures souffrent, et l'ozone envahit les villes (en attendant les b\u00e2timents fissur\u00e9s et l'instabilit\u00e9 politique), nous avons en place un \"boucler tarifaire\" pour nous permettre de continuer \u00e0 acheter des carburants pour un peu moins cher.\n\nEt nul discours faisant le lien entre tout cela dans la bouche de nos nouveaux ministres. Le covid avait justifi\u00e9 la multiplication des discours sur les \"gestes barri\u00e8re\". O\u00f9 est le discours sur les \"gestes barri\u00e8re\" pour ne pas souffrir de la tenaille \u00e9nerg\u00e9tico-climatique ? 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n'allons pas avoir le choix (par exemple \u00e0 cause de Poutine) ? Telle \u00e9tait une des questions qui m'\u00e9tait pos\u00e9e ce matin sur RMC/BFM, apr\u00e8s l'allusion \u00e0 la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 contenue dans l'interview d'Emmanuel Macron qui a eu lieu hier.\n\nCela m'a donn\u00e9 l'occasion de rappeler le travail effectu\u00e9 par le Shift Project sur le p\u00e9trole (https://lnkd.in/dMFCWQFw ), concluant que nous allons de toute fa\u00e7on devoir nous en passer progressivement \u00e0 l'avenir, et de dire que, pour les m\u00eames raisons d'\u00e9puisement des gisements, pour le gaz la tendance serait la m\u00eame. Un travail analogue \u00e0 celui effectu\u00e9 sur le p\u00e9trole est du reste en cours au Shift Project (il a notamment \u00e9t\u00e9 cofinanc\u00e9 par RTE) et sera publi\u00e9 \u00e0 la rentr\u00e9e.\n\nLe \"progressivement\" pour le gaz, qui avait commenc\u00e9 en 2005 en Europe \u00e0 cause du pic de production de la Mer du Nord (voir graphique en commentaire), va \u00e9videmment fortement s'acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer \u00e0 cause de nos d\u00e9m\u00eal\u00e9s avec les russes.\n\nEt comme les volumes de gaz qui nous sont livr\u00e9s par nos voisins de l'Est sont tr\u00e8s importants (environ 40% de notre consommation annuelle avant la guerre), il ne sera pas possible de les remplacer par du gaz liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9 venu des US ou du Qatar, car les possibilit\u00e9s physiques de fourniture et de transport ne sont pas du tout du m\u00eame ordre de grandeur.\n\nApr\u00e8s l'hiver prochain, il y aura donc les hivers suivants, qui devraient, si le commerce avec la Russie ne reprend pas, \u00eatre encore plus difficiles \u00e0 passer que le prochain, parce que les stocks vont \u00eatre de plus en plus difficiles \u00e0 reconstituer.\n\nC'est pour cela que j'ai qualifi\u00e9 ce matin la situation de \"saut dans l'inconnu\", m\u00eame si c'est un \"inconnu pr\u00e9visible\". Ce qui \u00e9tait pr\u00e9visible est le fait que, le gaz \u00e9tant \u00e9puisable, nous devrions \"un jour\" (et pas dans 2 si\u00e8cles) faire avec moins. Ce qui ne l'\u00e9tait pas \u00e9tait le d\u00e9clencheur conjoncturel et la hauteur de la marche d'escalier sur laquelle nous tr\u00e9buchons \u00e0 ce moment l\u00e0.\n\nIl en va de m\u00eame pour le p\u00e9trole, et de m\u00eame pour le climat : pour toutes ces \u00e9volutions, la tendance est pr\u00e9visible, mais pas la date pr\u00e9cise ni les conditions pr\u00e9cises de survenue des \"marches d'escalier descendantes\" qui vont inexorablement se produire.\n\nEsp\u00e9rons que la \"planification \u00e9cologique\" qui est apparue lors des derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections s'entende bien comme \"des plans pour l'avenir qui int\u00e8grent les inexorables soubresauts \u00e0 venir, et qui nous permettent de tirer le meilleur dans un monde avec des limites\". 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du Rhin fait craindre une aggravation de la crise \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Europe" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6953281311637692416,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A cause de la s\u00e9cheresse, le niveau du Rhin est bas. A cause de Poutine, nous aurons moins de gaz. La solution \u00e0 ce deuxi\u00e8me probl\u00e8me ? Basculer sur le charbon, et au Diable le CO2, les particules fines et la pollution locale. Mais... une partie du charbon import\u00e9 en Allemagne transite par le Rhin : si ce dernier est trop bas, le charbon ne peut plus s'importer aussi bien ! \n\nCette \"anecdote\" est assez illustrative du fait que le monde ne va pas \u00e9voluer avec les conditions qui changent dans un domaine (par exemple l'\u00e9nergie) pendant que partout ailleurs (par exemple sur le niveau du Rhin) les conditions vont rester identiques. \n\nAu sein du monde \u00e9conomique (et notamment celui des entreprises), il est classique de penser que le changement climatique va survenir dans un monde qui conservera la m\u00eame capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 produire, \u00e0 innover, \u00e0 s'adapter donc. C'est une forme de \"toutes choses \u00e9gales par ailleurs\" tr\u00e8s r\u00e9pandue... et qui est malheureusement tr\u00e8s \"anesth\u00e9siante\". \n\nPar exemple le climat va changer, et l'\u00e9nergie diminuer, mais cela n'emp\u00eachera pas le PIB de cro\u00eetre (c'est exactement ce que vient de dire la Banque Centrale Europ\u00e9enne dans ses \"stress tests\" sur les banques, m\u00eame si la conclusion est pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e sous la forme \"attention il peut y avoir des d\u00e9g\u00e2ts\" : https://bit.ly/3ccY71A ).\n\nC'est oublier que la diffusion de l'innovation suppose une rapide rotation des parcs install\u00e9s... et donc plein d'\u00e9nergie pour produire les objets du nouveau parc. Si l'\u00e9nergie diminue, comment augmenter l'efficacit\u00e9 du parc de voitures (qui doivent \u00eatre renouvel\u00e9es), d'industries, de logements, etc ?\n\nC'est oublier que nombre d'objets permettant de \"transitionner\" ou de s'adapter doivent \u00eatre transport\u00e9s en masse depuis des lieux de fabrication externes et que cela demande plein d'\u00e9nergie. Si moins de p\u00e9trole d\u00e9mondialise l'\u00e9conomie, comment faire ?\n\nC'est oublier que, pour les raisons ci-dessus, les prix pass\u00e9s ne sont pas pr\u00e9dictifs des quantit\u00e9s de demain (on l'a bien vu avec le gaz !), alors que nous supposons implicitement l'inverse dans \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s tous les domaines. \n\nC'est donc oublier que la contraction \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique va diminuer la productivit\u00e9 (cette derni\u00e8re \u00e9tant essentiellement l'adjonction des machines aux hommes en premi\u00e8re approximation), ralentir les \u00e9changes, et donc faire grimper tous les prix r\u00e9els, et que cela va arriver \"en m\u00eame temps\" (!) que l'augmentation des dommages climatiques, ou r\u00e9sultant des autres pressions humaines sur l'environnement.\n\nCette anecdote sur le Rhin est donc illustrative des conjonctions d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements \"impr\u00e9vus\" qui vont se produire simultan\u00e9ment, de plus en plus souvent. Cela pose \u00e9videmment un d\u00e9fi important \u00e0 la prospective, parce que nos boites \u00e0 outils classiques, reposant avant tout sur des prix, sont par nature incapables de faire autre chose que du \"toutes choses \u00e9gales par ailleurs\".\n\nAu chapitre des devoirs de vacances, mettez \"apprendre \u00e0 raisonner avec tout qui change en m\u00eame temps\". 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Ils, ce sont les \u00e9l\u00e8ves d'une future classe de 6\u00e8me d'un village de Normandie, \u00e0 qui leur maire a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d'offrir \"Le Monde sans Fin\" comme cadeau d'entr\u00e9e en 6\u00e8me. \n\nJe ne suis pas s\u00fbr qu'ils seront \u00e0 m\u00eame d'en comprendre tous les d\u00e9tails, mais par contre cela b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera \u00e0 coup s\u00fbr \u00e0 leurs parents, du moins je l'esp\u00e8re !\n\nQuelle attitude adopter vis-\u00e0-vis des plus jeunes en ce qui concerne le d\u00e9fi \u00e9nergie climat ? Faut-il \"tout leur dire\", notamment dans le cadre de l'enseignement, au risque de les rendre neurasth\u00e9niques, puisqu'ils vont comprendre le probl\u00e8me tout en ayant une tr\u00e8s faible capacit\u00e9 d'action dessus ? 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6952316894418776064,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "EDF sera donc nationalis\u00e9. Du point de vue \u00e9conomique, c'est une bonne id\u00e9e. Une entreprise nationale b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie en pratique des m\u00eames conditions d'emprunt ou presque que l'Etat, et pour financer des installations de production tr\u00e8s capitalistiques comme le nucl\u00e9aire ou les renouvelables (tout l'argent ou presque est d\u00e9pens\u00e9 lors de la construction et tr\u00e8s peu lors de l'exploitation) le taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat auquel l'argent est disponible fait une \u00e9norme diff\u00e9rence sur le r\u00e9sultat final.\n\nPrenons par exemple un r\u00e9acteur nucl\u00e9aire qui va vivre 60 ans, qui coute 10 milliards \u00e0 la construction, et qui met 10 ans \u00e0 \u00eatre construit (c'est des ordres de grandeur). Si l'argent pour le construire est trouv\u00e9 aupr\u00e8s d'actionnaires priv\u00e9s qui demandent 10% de rendement annuel sur les capitaux fournis, EDF devra d\u00e9bourser 90 milliards d'euros de frais financiers en plus par rapport \u00e0 une situation o\u00f9 ce m\u00eame argent serait disponible avec un taux \u00e0 2% seulement parce que ce sont des emprunts garantis par l'Etat. C'est pour cela que le nucl\u00e9aire n'est pas une activit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'aise dans le secteur priv\u00e9 : le cout du MWh y devient le double ou le triple (\u00e0 cause des frais financiers) de ce qu'il est dans le public : https://bit.ly/3yWmlGk\n\nA court terme cela va aussi permettre de refinancer \u00e0 des conditions plus favorables une dette qui a beaucoup augment\u00e9. Mais le v\u00e9ritable d\u00e9fi \u00e0 plus long terme d'EDF n'est pas juste de financer son nucl\u00e9aire du futur. Il est aussi de se d\u00e9barrasser d'un \u00e9norme \"sparadrap du capitaine Haddock\", qui s'appelle l'arenh (acc\u00e8s r\u00e9gul\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire historique). L'arenh est une obligation de vente \u00e0 \"prix coutant\" - et d\u00e9sormais \u00e0 perte - qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 impos\u00e9e \u00e0 EDF en 2011 dans le cadre de l'obligation de \"concurrence\" voulue par l'Europe. Elle porte actuellement sur un tiers de la production nucl\u00e9aire d'EDF.\n\nEn pratique les \"concurrents\" qui en b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient sont juste des courtiers (ils n'ont pas de centrales). Ils empochent une marge de distribution qui \u00e9tait auparavant conserv\u00e9e au sein de l'\u00e9lectricien national. Des industriels en b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient aussi mais ce probl\u00e8me peut se traiter s\u00e9par\u00e9ment.\n\nCe m\u00e9canisme a cout\u00e9 un bon paquet de milliards \u00e0 EDF (pas loin de 10 rien qu'en 2022, Macron en ayant rajout\u00e9 une grosse louche juste avant les \u00e9lections), a alourdi la charge de sa dette, a amoindri ses capacit\u00e9s d'investissement, et ce sans aucune contrepartie positive pour le pays (on ne peut pas dire que l'augmentation du nombre de courtiers soit un gain essentiel !).\n\nLa nationalisation n'est donc que le d\u00e9but de l'histoire si on veut vraiment s\u00e9curiser au mieux l'avenir \u00e9lectrique. La suite est la suppression de l'arenh, ainsi que la remise sur pieds d'une fili\u00e8re organis\u00e9e et efficace, ce qui demandera du temps et de la constance dans les objectifs (en sommes nous politiquement capables ?).\n\nNationalisation ou pas, un EDF avec l'arenh au niveau actuel finira par imploser...." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6952316894418776064,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6952316895232471041,urn:li:activity:6952316895232471041,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 152, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6952316895232471041,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6951840130315788288,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La Banque Centrale Europ\u00e9enne a, comme l'essentiel des banques centrales, pour mission essentielle de \"d\u00e9fendre la monnaie\" dont elle a la gestion : https://bit.ly/3RAmczZ \n\nCela signifie notamment :\n- limiter l'inflation (car l'inflation d\u00e9pr\u00e9cie la valeur de la monnaie)\n- agir sur les march\u00e9s des changes, pour \u00e9viter la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation excessive, ou au contraire l'appr\u00e9ciation excessive, de la monnaie concern\u00e9e face aux autres monnaies. \n- superviser les banques commerciales. Ces derni\u00e8res effectuant en pratique la cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire (par les op\u00e9rations de cr\u00e9dit : https://bit.ly/3c5JnBS), la gestion de la masse mon\u00e9taire passe notamment par les r\u00e8gles impos\u00e9es aux banques commerciales par les banques centrales.\n- ou encore assurer la liquidit\u00e9 interbancaire. Au titre de cette derni\u00e8re activit\u00e9, la banque centrale fournit des liquidit\u00e9s (du \"cash\") aux banques commerciales en demandant en contrepartie que la banque commerciale \"d\u00e9pose\" \u00e0 la banque centrale des obligations ou des actions que cette derni\u00e8re d\u00e9tient en propre (c'est un peu une esp\u00e8ce de pr\u00eat hypoth\u00e9caire !). \n\nPar extension, depuis qu'il y a des march\u00e9s financiers, les banques centrales sont aussi charg\u00e9es de la \"stabilit\u00e9\" de ces derniers.\n\nToutes ces op\u00e9rations doivent \u00eatre \"neutres\" du point de vue de l'\u00e9conomie, c'est \u00e0 dire que le mandat de la banque centrale n'a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 de se substituer au l\u00e9gislateur pour dire quelles activit\u00e9s pouvaient \u00e9ventuellement \u00eatre favoris\u00e9es par rapport \u00e0 telles autres, en favorisant ou pas l'acc\u00e8s aux ressources mon\u00e9taires ou financi\u00e8res, pour marquer le caract\u00e8re plus ou moins utile pour la collectivit\u00e9.\n\nAinsi, la banque centrale ne peut pas dire aux banques commerciales que le financement des activit\u00e9s carbon\u00e9es doit se faire avec des taux de cr\u00e9dit plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s que pour les activit\u00e9s non carbon\u00e9es, pour dissuader les premi\u00e8res, par exemple. \n\nCette diff\u00e9renciation ne pourrait \u00eatre justifi\u00e9e qu'\u00e0 une condition, qui elle serait strictement \"financi\u00e8re\" : que les risques de d\u00e9faut soient plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour les emprunteurs carbon\u00e9s que pour ceux qui ne le sont pas.\n\nOr, malgr\u00e9 cette obligation de neutralit\u00e9, la BCE vient de d\u00e9cider de faire un double petit pas de c\u00f4t\u00e9 : tout d'abord elle va orienter sa propre \u00e9pargne en privil\u00e9giant les titres d'entreprises \"vertes\". Carbon 4 Finance ayant \u00e9t\u00e9 s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9 il y a quelques mois par les banques centrales de l'Eurosyst\u00e8me pour fournir des donn\u00e9es climat, nous esp\u00e9rons \u00e9videmment que ce \"tri\" sera fait sur la base de nos analyses :).\n\nEnsuite et surtout, la BCE va privil\u00e9gier les titres \"verts\" (qui peuvent \u00eatre analys\u00e9s avec nos donn\u00e9es aussi !) apport\u00e9s en garantie lorsque les banques commerciales voudront b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de liquidit\u00e9s de la banque centrale. Cela va pousser les banques commerciales \u00e0 \"verdir\" leur propre bilan. \n\nDans les deux cas de figure c'est une novation importante par rapport au mandat historique. Mais c'est clairement une bonne id\u00e9e dans le contexte actuel." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6951840130315788288,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6951840131171430400,urn:li:activity:6951840131171430400,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 55, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6951840131171430400,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6951840131171430400,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7664347709361419515)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lemonde.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Transport et livraison de marchandises : \u00ab Le renforcement de la mutualisation et le report de la route vers le rail ou le fluvial doivent devenir des r\u00e9flexes \u00bb by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2022/07/08/le-renforcement-de-la-mutualisation-et-la-generalisation-de-la-capacite-de-report-modal-doivent-devenir-des-reflexes-naturels-pour-les-acteurs-du-secteur-du-transport-de-marchandises_6133974_3232.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Transport et livraison de marchandises\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0Le renforcement de la mutualisation et le report de la route vers le rail ou le fluvial doivent devenir des r\u00e9flexes\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6951466947070849024,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 1345, "length": 13, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Reuben", "lastName": "Fisher", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAA1hJIEBXx4lDDtTWnTWFjidJnATZRUgcOk", "occupation": "Directeur RSE & D\u00e9veloppement Durable chez HOPPS GROUP, n\u00e9 en/born in 325 PPM, Micmac score 4669. Chef de Projet Fret pour The Shift Project", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:224470145", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAA1hJIEBXx4lDDtTWnTWFjidJnATZRUgcOk", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1673121762844?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=33OhjPaY_7KuOMdDS3tI1WH5hijaBEdEfp7qnmNxHTw", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1673121762844?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=Y3xvjIVinRqEh3KVsmAVehaMDUdzfky3KZ2lLyUrYAc", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 350 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4D16AQFLWoQIh8xJhw/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_" } }, "publicIdentifier": "reuben-fisher-85521163", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1597156886380?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=LacffM3jI3rNUQrstpzua7n1m2OT3O51gZ5DlbSic6w", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1597156886380?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=EWUq2qJCfO0GiHC9tqD6YbdZZDIG13OJmH13T9aqrkU", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1597156886380?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=vsdnKgNDLbINBRt1XtB9DhRtXixo1Qc5RCxhqdYFRiQ", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1597156886380?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=bV5pi8ET7PHE4cfOyDoTcpHxktWhSNYTi1Wt8dK_AKI", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D03AQFyqPPtFCQVGA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "Z/q86OXsTEuYHAGsR2ENeA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Comment moins utiliser de p\u00e9trole dans les transports ? Lorsque cette question est pos\u00e9e, les suggestions qui viennent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00e0 l'esprit concernent les d\u00e9placements de personnes : faisons du v\u00e9lo, prenons le train, arr\u00eatons l'avion !\n\nMais il ne faut pas oublier que, dans le monde, les flux de marchandises utilisent presque autant de combustibles liquides que les flux de personnes. Et, quand on regarde bien, c'est pour le fret que la question de la d\u00e9carbonation est la plus urgente.\n\nSi demain matin nous devions fortement rationner le carburant en France, nous arriverions quand m\u00eame, au prix de gros efforts, \u00e0 nous organiser pour conserver beaucoup de mobilit\u00e9 : conducteurs et passagers habitant \"pas trop loin\" s'organiseraient pour mieux remplir les voitures (moins nombreuses) pour les trajets du quotidien ; une large partie des d\u00e9placements courts basculeraient imm\u00e9diatement sur du v\u00e9lo et des modes collectifs (bus, modes ferr\u00e9s), au prix d'un allongement de la dur\u00e9e du trajet (mais n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 fait parfois loi...) ; etc.\n\nRien de tel n'est envisageable pour les marchandises, qui n'ont pas de jambes, et pour lesquelles les trajets sont beaucoup plus longs. Dans un monde priv\u00e9 de camions demain matin, l'ensemble des villes meurt assez vite de faim. Paris, par exemple, n'a que 3 jours de r\u00e9serves alimentaires, rappelle Reuben Fisher (chef de projet pour la partie Fret du Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise) dans cette tribune publi\u00e9e dans Le Monde.\n\nLes villes n'auraient pas plus de v\u00eatements, d'ampoules \u00e9lectriques, de savon, de liti\u00e8re pour chats, de t\u00e9l\u00e9phones ou de papier toilette : en fait rien de ce que vous pouvez voir dans un magasin, ou vous faire livrer chez vous, n'est aujourd'hui accessible dans un monde sans camions et sans marine marchande.\n\nOr, climat ou pas climat, la production mondiale de p\u00e9trole devrait \u00eatre divis\u00e9e par 2 environ d'ici \u00e0 2050 (https://bit.ly/3NVAVlU ). L'Europe politique (donc hors UK et Norv\u00e8ge) importe 95% de son p\u00e9trole. Comme les pays producteurs vont garder une fraction croissante du p\u00e9trole pour eux, nos importations de p\u00e9trole (europ\u00e9ennes) vont donc baisser d'un facteur 2 \u00e0... 10.\n\nDe ce fait, il va falloir de toute fa\u00e7on organiser le fret avec de moins en moins de diesel. L'\u00e9lectrification au nucl\u00e9aire est possible pour les bateaux (sous-marins ou porte-avions), mais la marine marchande mondiale compte 100.000 unit\u00e9s de plus de 100 tonnes de capacit\u00e9, et seule une petite partie peut basculer en quelques d\u00e9cennies. \n\nPour les camions, c'est aussi l'\u00e9lectrification sous diverses formes qui est l'action \u00e0 privil\u00e9gier, mais l\u00e0 aussi les chiffres montrent que ca ne permettra pas de conserver les flux de marchandises actuels.\n\nComment faire alors ? La premi\u00e8re des mesures propos\u00e9es par le PTEF pour le fret est de doter le pays d'un minist\u00e8re d\u00e9di\u00e9, et d'autorit\u00e9s organisatrices en r\u00e9gion. 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"numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 58, "length": 14, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean", "lastName": "Colcombet", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABD4DrAB8hEYutH-TEQLJPMcXIA5LojOXW0", "occupation": "Inra Scientist (Plant Genomic Research Unit, Evry, France)", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:284692144", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAABD4DrAB8hEYutH-TEQLJPMcXIA5LojOXW0", "publicIdentifier": "jean-colcombet-4944147b", "trackingId": "qokTNvglQqS1YQRn4CAKxw==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Dans une tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressante tribune publi\u00e9e dans Le Monde, Jean Colcombet, directeur de recherches \u00e0 l'Institut des sciences des plantes Paris-Saclay, s'interroge sur la bonne mani\u00e8re d'allouer l'effort de recherche dans un monde qui va devenir plus contraint.\n\nL'auteur int\u00e8gre deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments dans son raisonnement :\n\n- la baisse des budgets qu'il voit comme inexorable. L'abondance \u00e9conomique r\u00e9sultant des combustibles fossiles, la baisse de ces derniers va laisser moins de moyens pour s'occuper d'activit\u00e9s non imm\u00e9diatement essentielles \u00e0 court terme (manger, se loger...), dont la recherche fait partie. De fait, avant l'abondance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, il n'y avait pas beaucoup de labos de recherche...\n\n- et, du coup, la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de faire clairement des choix sur les sujets qui m\u00e9ritent d'\u00eatre soutenus au regard de leur utilit\u00e9 possible pour aider la collectivit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire face aux d\u00e9fis qui augmentent.\n\nL'auteur se demande alors si, dans ce contexte, il est justifi\u00e9 de maintenir une station spatiale, ou d'investir massivement dans de la recherche pour traiter des maladies du grand \u00e2ge alors que l'on ne sait pas si une partie des jeunes d'aujourd'hui pourront simplement se nourrir pour y parvenir.\n\nCes questions sont certes difficiles, mais lucides, et l'auteur est courageux de les poser publiquement. L'\u00e9valuation de l'opportunit\u00e9 de la recherche a parfois \u00e9t\u00e9 pos\u00e9e de mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s directe par notre esp\u00e8ce, par exemple en temps de guerre.\n\nAlors que l'urgence est l\u00e0, pouvons-nous faire l'\u00e9conomie de laisser la recherche, qui pr\u00e9pare l'avenir, et alors que les moyens vont devenir de plus en plus compt\u00e9s, sans aucune exigence concernant la pertinence de ce qui est cherch\u00e9 au regard d'objectifs environnementaux ?\n\nDifficile mais n\u00e9cessaire d\u00e9bat." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6951063788120887296,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6951063788729069568,urn:li:activity:6951063788729069568,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 78, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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touch\u00e9e" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6950843762700894208,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ce ne sera pas la meilleure nouvelle de la journ\u00e9e, mais voici un titre de journal qu'il faut s'attendre \u00e0 voir de plus en plus souvent \u00e0 l'avenir. \n\nCela fait presque un an qu'une large partie de l'Europe (dont la France) est en d\u00e9ficit de pr\u00e9cipitations, et assez logiquement cela engendre des conditions plus s\u00e8ches. Malheureusement pour nous, ce d\u00e9ficit de pluie annonce un \"nouveau normal\", dans lequel le pourtour du bassin m\u00e9diterran\u00e9en va recevoir de moins en moins d'eau du ciel. C'est une cons\u00e9quence de modification de la circulation atmosph\u00e9rique \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle qui prend place aux tropiques et qui s'appelle la cellule de Hadley (https://lnkd.in/e3dTa_vw). \n\nDans un climat qui se r\u00e9chauffe, l'\u00e9vaporation \u00e0 l'\u00e9quateur va \u00eatre plus vigoureuse, et cela va engendrer un petit d\u00e9calage vers les p\u00f4les de la zone de subsidence (la \"redescente\" d'air sec) qui prend place aux tropiques. Question pr\u00e9cipitations, l'Afrique du Nord va ressembler un peu plus \u00e0 l'Afrique sah\u00e9lienne, et l'Europe du sud un peu plus \u00e0 l'Afrique du Nord.\n\nEn plus, avec l'augmentation des temp\u00e9ratures, le sol s'ass\u00e8cherait un peu quand bien m\u00eame il pleuvrait toujours autant. En effet, ces temp\u00e9ratures augment\u00e9es engendrent une \u00e9vapotranspiration (l'\u00e9vaporation des v\u00e9g\u00e9taux) qui augmente, et une \u00e9vaporation directe depuis le sol qui augmente aussi.\n\nL'eau, c'est la vie. Moins d'eau va donc rendre la vie plus compliqu\u00e9e \u00e0 plein d'endroits. La v\u00e9g\u00e9tation pousse moins vite et les cultures seront moins productives (voire impossibles et il faut cultiver autre chose, mais la limite du rendement reste), les for\u00eats vont mourir pour partie et les remplacer ne se fait pas en une semaine, les argiles des sols vont se r\u00e9tracter mettant en p\u00e9ril b\u00e2timents et infrastructures, les rivi\u00e8res vont voir leur d\u00e9bit baisser voire parfois se tarir et les activit\u00e9s industrielles qui en d\u00e9pendent seront diminu\u00e9es ou arr\u00eat\u00e9es, etc...\n\nIn fine beaucoup moins d'eau c'est une civilisation qui peut s'\u00e9crouler. Nous n'en sommes pas encore l\u00e0, mais par contre il est urgent de s'occuper un peu plus s\u00e9rieusement du sujet.\nLes personnes qui ont 20 ans aujourd'hui (mais qui ne votent pas) ont malheureusement de bonnes chances d'avoir des probl\u00e8mes s\u00e9rieux avec le changement climatique et les autres limites plan\u00e9taires bien plus t\u00f4t qu'avec les retraites... qui est pourtant la priorit\u00e9 du moment (parce que les vieux votent). 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"text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il appuie l\u00e0 o\u00f9 ca fait mal, et fait au passage des suggestions de gouvernance qui se discutent, mais Gaspard Koenig pose une question essentielle dans cette tribune pour Les Echos. Peut-on concilier augmentation du pouvoir d'achat et baisse de la pression sur l'environnement, une martingale que la quasi-totalit\u00e9 de la classe politique propose actuellement ?\n\nLe pouvoir d'achat se d\u00e9finit, rappelle l'auteur, par \"le volume de biens et services qu'un revenu permet d'acheter\". Pour que ce pouvoir d'achat augmente, il faut donc que la production de biens et services par personne et par an augmente.\n\nOr, pour produire des biens et services, il faut physiquement transformer des ressources naturelles (https://bit.ly/3Raa74d ). De ce fait, pour pouvoir acheter chaque ann\u00e9e plus de m\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s de logement, de tonnes de voiture, de places de cin\u00e9ma, de billets de trains, de pantalons ou de tuyaux d'arrosage, il faut en produire plus et donc augmenter les pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements et la transformation.\n\nL'\u00e9quation de Kaya (https://bit.ly/3AzgbgQ ) permet alors de mettre \"l'\u00e9conomie\" et la physique dans un m\u00eame raisonnement, et, au regard des \u00e9volutions pass\u00e9es, de se demander si on pourra \"d\u00e9coupler\", c'est \u00e0 dire augmenter le pouvoir d'achat et pr\u00e9server l'environnement en m\u00eame temps. Toute personne un peu honn\u00eate h\u00e9sitera fortement avant d'affirmer que la r\u00e9ponse sera oui...\n\nDans mon cours \u00e0 Mines Paris (https://bit.ly/3Isn8lK ), je distingue 3 mani\u00e8res d'\u00e9conomiser de l'\u00e9nergie (et donc de limiter la pression sur l'environnement) :\n- l'efficacit\u00e9 est l'action qui permet de b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier du m\u00eame service tout en utilisant moins d'\u00e9nergie (je conduis la m\u00eame voiture sur la m\u00eame distance mais la voiture a un moteur plus efficace). En pratique c'est l'am\u00e9lioration du fonctionnement des machines mais pas la baisse du nombre de ces derni\u00e8res. Sa mise en oeuvre est compatible avec la croissance et l'effort ne repose que sur les producteurs.\n- la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 consiste \u00e0 se passer d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment d'un produit ou service (j'abandonne volontairement la voiture pour des modes collectifs ou actifs). Puisque je n'ach\u00e8te plus il n'est plus n\u00e9cessaire de produire... et c'est donc r\u00e9cessif. L'effort repose sur le consommateur, mais ce dernier choisit. Puisqu'il ach\u00e8te moins il peut gagner moins.\n- la pauvret\u00e9 est le fait de se passer d'un produit ou service \"juste parce qu'on ne peut plus\" : je n'ai plus le moyen de faire le plein mais je n'avais aucune intention de conduire moins. L'effort repose aussi sur le consommateur, mais de mani\u00e8re subie. Tout comme la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9, elle est r\u00e9cessive puisque la production n'a plus lieu.\n\nAugmenter le pouvoir d'achat de 1% par an tout en respectant la baisse des \u00e9missions \u00e0 la bonne vitesse (5% par an) est parier sur une baisse de 6% par an du CO2 par unit\u00e9 de PIB (elle n'a jamais fait mieux que 1% environ sur p\u00e9riode longue). Koenig a raison de demander si c'est pertinent de promettre l'accord de Paris sans baisse choisie ou subie du pouvoir d'achat." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6950720483973599233,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6950720484699201537,urn:li:activity:6950720484699201537,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 244, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6950720484699201537,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6950720484699201537,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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dans une d\u00e9crue des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires permettant de limiter le r\u00e9chauffement climatique \u00e0 2\u00b0C, le secteur a\u00e9rien doit accepter une diminution du trafic, m\u00eame en \u00e9tant tr\u00e8s optimiste sur les avanc\u00e9es techniques qui seront r\u00e9alis\u00e9es \u00e0 l'avenir. \n\nC'\u00e9tait une des conclusions du rapport \"voler en 2050\" que The Shift Project a publi\u00e9 il y a un peu plus d'un an en collaboration avec le collectif A\u00c9RO D\u00c9CARBO, un collectif d'ing\u00e9nieurs du secteur engag\u00e9s pour la cause climatique (https://lnkd.in/d3h_4QA). Parmi les conclusions il en figurait une int\u00e9ressante : plus la d\u00e9cision de baisser le trafic serait tardive, plus les cons\u00e9quences sur l'emploi du secteur seraient importantes.\n\nPour obtenir cette baisse, la mesure qui est la plus souvent imagin\u00e9e est de taxer le k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne. Mais The Shift Project a imagin\u00e9 une autre possibilit\u00e9 : \u00e9tablir des quotas d\u00e9croissants sur les mouvements d'avions dans les a\u00e9roports. Cette derni\u00e8re mesure est \u00e0 la main des \u00e9tats, qui peuvent le faire sans r\u00e9viser le moindre trait\u00e9 (alors que la taxation du carburant demande probablement de le faire). \n\nLa preuve que cela est possible ? L'a\u00e9roport d'Amsterdam-Schipol vient de le faire, en limitant les mouvements \u00e0 un niveau inf\u00e9rieur de 11% \u00e0 celui pr\u00e9-covid. Certes la d\u00e9cision gouvernementale ne mentionne pas les \u00e9missions de CO2 (https://lnkd.in/e2JBYV8Y ). Mais elle prouve qu'il est politiquement et techniquement possible de suivre cette voie d'un plafond sur les d\u00e9collages et atterrissages (en fait le quota sur les d\u00e9collages suffit !).\n\nPuisque la transition est officiellement notre grande affaire, et que les chiffres montrent que l'on ne pourra pas faire l'\u00e9conomie d'une baisse du trafic pour avoir une aviation \"compatible Accord de Paris\", il serait de bon ton de mettre cette mesure en vigueur en France aussi. 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800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D03AQHYkExuPDHEBA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "aXZUZUvdSMShTPpC8+C22g==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Ils arrivent en 10\u00e8 et 11\u00e8 position. \"Ils\", ce ne sont pas les coureurs du tour de France lors de la premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape, mais les ministres charg\u00e9s de l'\u00e9cologie et de la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique dans l'ordre protocolaire du nouveau gouvernement. \n\nLorsque Sarkozy avait voulu marquer le coup pour lancer le Grenelle de l'Environnement, le ministre en charge de l'\u00e9cologie avait re\u00e7u le titre de ministre d'Etat, et arrivait en 2\u00e8 position dans l'ordre protocolaire, juste derri\u00e8re le premier ministre. Fondamentalement, cet ordre ne change pas les choses : on est plus dans le registre du symbole que dans celui de la hi\u00e9rarchie stricte. \n\nPar ailleurs, puisqu'Elisabeth BORNE elle-m\u00eame porte le titre de \"Premi\u00e8re ministre, charg\u00e9e de la Planification \u00e9cologique et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\", on peut penser que cette affaire de transition occupe d\u00e9j\u00e0 la marche la plus haute du dispositif.\n\nEn fait, plus que l'ordre protocolaire, ce qui va d\u00e9j\u00e0 compter un peu plus sera la r\u00e9daction des d\u00e9crets d'attribution des ministres du nouveau gouvernement. Dans la version Borne I, ces d\u00e9crets ne faisaient pas r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 un quelconque objectif de d\u00e9carbonation ou de respect des limites plan\u00e9taires. \n\nLe ministre de l'\u00e9conomie \u00e9tait charg\u00e9 de \"promouvoir la croissance et la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\", par exemple, et pas du tout \"promouvoir un syst\u00e8me productif et une \u00e9conomie durables, d\u00e9carbon\u00e9s, r\u00e9silients et comp\u00e9titifs\". \n\nTout comme l'ordre protocolaire, l'\u00e9nonc\u00e9 des objectifs de ces d\u00e9crets d'attribution reste aussi dans le champ symbolique. Il n'est par exemple pas possible de faire un proc\u00e8s \u00e0 un ministre au motif qu'il ne respecte pas les objectifs de ce d\u00e9cret.\n\nMais la symbolique, en politique, c'est important. C'est autour de l'\u00e9nonc\u00e9 d'objectifs communs que les peuples peuvent se rassembler... ou pas. \n\nA l'heure o\u00f9 une fraction croissante de la population fran\u00e7aise se retrouve autour de l'importance qu'il faut accorder \u00e0 la question environnementale, j'esp\u00e8re donc que les nouveaux d\u00e9crets, qui ne devraient pas tarder, ne r\u00e9it\u00e8reront pas le manque qui \u00e9tait pr\u00e9sent dans la premi\u00e8re version. Le remaniement pourrait \u00e0 tout le moins servir \u00e0 \u00e7a !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6949973470491373568,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6949973471242145792,urn:li:activity:6949973471242145792,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 34, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6949973471242145792,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6949973471242145792,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Lors de ma derni\u00e8re chronique sur RTL avant d'aller faire les miens, j'ai sugg\u00e9r\u00e9 aux membres de la nouvelle Assembl\u00e9e nationale de profiter de l'\u00e9t\u00e9 pour piocher les enjeux \u00e9nergie-climat.\n\nCertes, une partie du parlement a pris un peu d'avance r\u00e9cemment, mais pas tant que cela. Une session de \"formation\" a en effet \u00e9t\u00e9 propos\u00e9e aux nouveaux d\u00e9put\u00e9(e)s, assur\u00e9e en pratique par des scientifiques travaillent dans le domaine du climat ou de la biodiversit\u00e9. 154 parlementaires sur 577 (soit un quart) sont venus suivre une petite demi-heure de formation sur le sujet. \n\nPour les absents, tout reste \u00e0 faire. Pour les autres, on ne peut pas consid\u00e9rer que l'acquisition des connaissances soit termin\u00e9e ! A 4 exceptions pr\u00e8s, celles et ceux qui sont venus appartenaient \u00e0 la majorit\u00e9 pr\u00e9sidentielle et \u00e0 la Nupes (https://yhoo.it/3yapZeh ). Il y a donc eu un \"refus d'obstacle\" quasi-total de la part des \u00e9lus RN et LR pour parler de faits, et cela est ennuyeux.\n\nAux USA, l'opposition entre d\u00e9mocrates et r\u00e9publicains sur la question du climat va jusqu'\u00e0 remettre les faits en cause quand on appartient au deuxi\u00e8me camp. C'est bien \u00e9videmment le jeu de l'opposition entre partis qui conduit les r\u00e9publicains \u00e0 contester non la mani\u00e8re de g\u00e9rer le probl\u00e8me, mais le probl\u00e8me lui-m\u00eame.\n\nEt, bien \u00e9videmment, d\u00e8s lors que les faits sont contest\u00e9s, les mesures propos\u00e9es ensuite ne peuvent permettre de se d\u00e9barrasser du probl\u00e8me. Dans \"Don't Look Up\", nier que la com\u00e8te a le pouvoir de d\u00e9truire la terre ne l'emp\u00eachera pas de le faire !\n\nIl serait d\u00e9l\u00e9t\u00e8re que le clivage politique fran\u00e7ais nous conduise \u00e0 la m\u00eame situation : la n\u00e9gation des faits par une partie importante des \u00e9lus. Que les bords politiques s'opposent sur la conduite \u00e0 tenir, c'est normal. Mais qu'un bord politique remette en cause la description des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s physiques du CO2, les \u00e9tudes sur l'\u00e9volution de l'humidit\u00e9 des sols en France, ou les travaux sur la disponibilit\u00e9 future des hydrocarbures sous contrainte g\u00e9ologique, ce serait une tr\u00e8s bonne mani\u00e8re d'en rajouter au malheur des citoyens qu'ils sont cens\u00e9s d\u00e9fendre, et non leur rendre service.\n\nJ'esp\u00e8re donc que les \"devoirs de vacances\" que je sugg\u00e8re dans cette chronique seront effectu\u00e9s. Il restera suffisamment de sujets sur lesquels s'affronter par ailleurs.\n\nPS : la d\u00e9cision d'Elisabeth BORNE d'accepter le principe d'une formation pour les ministres, les cabinets et un grand nombre de hautes fonctionnaires (https://bit.ly/3OU5skI ) est une excellente chose. A ma modeste \u00e9chelle, je peux proposer au public concern\u00e9 les 4 premiers modules de mon cours \u00e0 Mines Paris, accessibles \u00e0 l'ensemble du public vis\u00e9 (et pour pas un liard en plus). Ils sont disponibles l\u00e0 en version \"planches en bonne d\u00e9finition + son\" : https://bit.ly/3R8MkkS (sinon l\u00e0 : https://bit.ly/3NNaX44 ). Apr\u00e8s, pour la consid\u00e9rable somme de 27 \u20ac, il reste une certaine BD :)" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6949295331268284416,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6949295332262330368,urn:li:activity:6949295332262330368,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 55, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6949295332262330368,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6949295332262330368,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6948927920753008640,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Apr\u00e8s d'autres jeunes dipl\u00f4m\u00e9s, mais tr\u00e8s certainement avant encore d'autres, des polytechniciens tout juste \u00e9moulus de l'Ecole invitent aussi \u00e0 revenir \u00e0 l'int\u00e9r\u00eat g\u00e9n\u00e9ral dans les choix de carri\u00e8re.\n\nPour l'X, cette question n'est pas que de pure forme. Depuis longtemps sa devise est \"Pour la patrie, les sciences et la gloire\". \"Pour la patrie\", pour moi, n'est \u00e9videmment pas l\u00e0 pour rappeler le r\u00e9gime de P\u00e9tain (du reste la devise date de bien avant) : c'est une invitation \u00e0 servir le pays, donc l'ensemble de nos concitoyen(ne)s ; cela s'appelle encore l'int\u00e9r\u00eat g\u00e9n\u00e9ral. \n\n\"Pour la gloire\" ne signifie pas plus qu'il vaut viser la notori\u00e9t\u00e9, mais au contraire que les int\u00e9r\u00eats personnels de pouvoir, de r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration ou de notori\u00e9t\u00e9 doivent \u00eatre vus comme secondaires au regard de l'int\u00e9r\u00eat intrins\u00e8que de ce que l'on fait. Il faut entreprendre - m\u00eame au sein de l'administration - sans rien esp\u00e9rer en retour que d'avoir fait quelque chose d'utile.\n\nEnfin \"pour la science\" n'est pas, enfin \u00e0 tout le moins pas pour moi, une mani\u00e8re de dire qu'il faut \u00e0 toute force travailler \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d'objets techniques. Il faut plut\u00f4t y voir que, quelle que soit la mani\u00e8re d'orienter l'action propos\u00e9e, il faut le faire en accord avec les faits. C'est une invitation \u00e0 proc\u00e9der dans l'ordre observer - comprendre - agir. \n\nDans le discours de mes jeunes camarades il y a autre chose que je trouve int\u00e9ressant : leur invitation faite aux alumnis (les anciens, donc ceux qui sont aux manettes actuellement) de s'occuper un peu plus s\u00e9rieusement des limites plan\u00e9taires.\n\nCar refuser, quand on est jeune dipl\u00f4m\u00e9, d'aller travailler du c\u00f4t\u00e9 obscur de la force est une (bonne) chose, mais cela ne remplace pas l'action r\u00e9solue de ceux qui ont le pouvoir actuellement, et ceux-l\u00e0 ne sont pas tout juste sortis d'\u00e9cole. Il est donc l\u00e9gitime que la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration des 20-25 ans demandent \u00e0 ceux qui en ont 30 \u00e0 40 de plus de \"s'engager\". \n\nA la fin du mandat de Macron II, il faudrait que les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires aient baiss\u00e9 de presque 25% pour \u00e9viter de tuer tous les coraux, de diminuer la production agricole m\u00e9diterran\u00e9enne de plusieurs dizaines de %, de tuer plusieurs dizaines de % de la for\u00eat fran\u00e7aise, et de placer un milliard d'\u00eatre humains dans des zones o\u00f9 il ne sera pas possible de sortir en ext\u00e9rieur sans se retrouver dans un hammam g\u00e9ant, au risque d'en mourir en quelques heures. Car tout cela se produit d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans un monde \u00e0 2\u00b0C, et \u00e9viter ce monde suppose de baisser les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires de 5% par an d\u00e8s maintenant.\n\nCe programme l\u00e0, il n'y a que ceux qui sont actuellement au pouvoir - ce qui va de ma g\u00e9n\u00e9ration \u00e0 celle juste en dessous - qui peuvent l'appliquer. Les jeunes ont raison de le rappeler, m\u00eame si c'est d\u00e9sagr\u00e9able pour celles et ceux qui re\u00e7oivent le message." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6948927920753008640,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6948927921524781056,urn:li:activity:6948927921524781056,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 161, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6948927921524781056,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6948927921524781056,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8681268489751462577)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "cnn.com \u2022 7 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Supreme Court curbs EPA's ability to fight climate change by edition.cnn.com", "actionTarget": "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/30/politics/supreme-court-climate-change-epa-regulations/index.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Supreme Court curbs EPA's ability to fight climate change" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6948570502500110336,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pendant des d\u00e9cennies apr\u00e8s la Lib\u00e9ration, les USA sont apparus comme le pays du \"mieux\". Ils nous ont lib\u00e9r\u00e9s des nazis, puis nous ont \"guid\u00e9s\" vers le monde moderne, de la machine \u00e0 laver \u00e0 la voiture, en passant par la conqu\u00eate de la lune et internet. \n\nNous avons imit\u00e9, souvent fascin\u00e9s, ce pays qui \u00e9tait \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence le mod\u00e8le \u00e0 suivre (sauf pour De Gaulle parfois !). Mais, depuis quelques d\u00e9cennies, ce pays devient aussi de plus en plus l'incarnation des exc\u00e8s en tous genres et des choses \u00e0 ne pas faire. \n\nCar les \"USA\" c'est aussi des records d'ob\u00e9sit\u00e9 ou d'addictions, d'emprisonnement (quasiment 1% de la population est derri\u00e8re les barreaux), de brutalit\u00e9 militaire, d'homicides par armes \u00e0 feu, d'in\u00e9galit\u00e9s en tous genres, sans oublier l'enseignement qui fait passer les affaires de multinationales avant l'int\u00e9r\u00eat des enfants, le contr\u00f4le des opinions par les algorithmes des r\u00e9seaux sociaux (dit autrement Big Brother est bien apparu mais pas l\u00e0 o\u00f9 Orwell l'attendait !), ou... les premi\u00e8res r\u00e9serves de charbon au monde.\n\nC'est aussi un pays o\u00f9 le pouvoir f\u00e9d\u00e9ral est largement impuissant. Apr\u00e8s deux d\u00e9cisions sur l'avortement et les armes \u00e0 feu qui ram\u00e8nent chacune des d\u00e9cennies en arri\u00e8re, la Cour supr\u00eame de ce pays vient de changer la jurisprudence en ce qui concerne les agences f\u00e9d\u00e9rales en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, et l'EPA en particulier. Cette derni\u00e8re ne pourra plus r\u00e9glementer - en l'esp\u00e8ce les \u00e9missions des centrales \u00e0 charbon - sans que le Congr\u00e8s lui ait explicitement donn\u00e9 le mandat de le faire.\n\nComme la modification du cadre l\u00e9gislatif aux USA est un processus qui prend \"des plombes\" (en 8 ans Obama n'y est pas arriv\u00e9 sur le CO2), \u00e0 cause des particularit\u00e9s du syst\u00e8me am\u00e9ricain, cette r\u00e9cente d\u00e9cision signifie en pratique que l'ex\u00e9cutif f\u00e9d\u00e9ral ne peut pas faire grand chose de rapide sur la question des \u00e9missions.\n\nLa Cour supr\u00eame actuelle est une pilule empoisonn\u00e9e laiss\u00e9e par Trump : ce dernier y avait nomm\u00e9 3 juges ultraconservateurs (https://bit.ly/3bKjLdD ), \u00e2g\u00e9s de 50, 54 et 57 ans. Rappelons que les juges y si\u00e8gent \u00e0 vie et ne sont en pratique pas r\u00e9vocables.\n\nIl est urgent de ne plus regarder les USA avec les yeux de Chim\u00e8ne. Dans le monde terriblement fini qui nous attend, ce pays n\u00e9 dans le monde infini, disposant des r\u00e9flexes, traits culturels et m\u00e9canismes de gouvernance du monde infini, devient de plus en plus un contre-exemple et non un exemple.\n\nDans ce pays, trop repose sur l'individu (cens\u00e9 pouvoir se sortir seul de toutes les situations ; la figure du super-h\u00e9ros incarnant cela \u00e0 l'extr\u00eame) et pas assez sur le collectif, et trop repose sur la technique et pas assez sur la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nNous - les europ\u00e9ens et en particulier les fran\u00e7ais - devons imaginer notre propre avenir, non nous mettre dans la roue des am\u00e9ricains. Il ne s'agit pas de nous f\u00e2cher avec eux, juste de ne rien en attendre. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8097469642180254423)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lemonde.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \u00ab Se soumettre aux Anglo-Saxons pour les donn\u00e9es environnementales des entreprises est une erreur \u00bb by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2022/06/30/se-soumettre-aux-anglo-saxons-pour-les-donnees-environnementales-des-entreprises-est-une-erreur_6132653_3232.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00ab\u00a0Se soumettre aux Anglo-Saxons pour les donn\u00e9es environnementales des entreprises est une erreur\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6948164395948503040,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", 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juin, Michael Bloomberg est venu voir notre pr\u00e9sident avec sa casquette de \"envoy\u00e9 sp\u00e9cial du secr\u00e9taire g\u00e9n\u00e9ral des Nations Unies pour l\u2019ambition et les solutions en faveur du climat\".\n\nQue souhaitait l'ami Michael ? Convaincre Emmanuel Macron de sa rallier \u00e0 son initiative de cr\u00e9ation d'un \"Comit\u00e9 directeur sur les donn\u00e9es li\u00e9es au climat\", dont l'objectif est de \"(...) normaliser les donn\u00e9es relatives \u00e0 la transition vers l\u2019objectif de z\u00e9ro \u00e9mission nette correspondant aux engagements pris par le secteur priv\u00e9 en faveur du climat\".\n\nEn pratique, cette initiative se situe dans le droit fil de la TCFD (https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/ ) - pr\u00e9sid\u00e9e par Michael Bloomberg - qui \"pousse\" les entreprises \u00e0 publier des informations relatives au climat tout en proposant la mani\u00e8re de faire.\n\nMichael a \u00e9t\u00e9 convaincant : l'Elys\u00e9e a publi\u00e9 le 3 juin un communiqu\u00e9 de presse annon\u00e7ant son soutien \u00e0 l'initiative : https://bit.ly/3R9EoQG\n\nSur le papier, l'affaire semble plaidable. Si les entreprises sont pouss\u00e9es \u00e0 publier des informations sur le climat, et que ces derni\u00e8res sont pertinentes et accessibles, cela permettra assur\u00e9ment aux \"parties prenantes\" (dont le monde financier) de faire des choix plus \u00e9clair\u00e9s.\n\nMais ... il y a un mais. Le communiqu\u00e9 de presse indique notamment que ce \"comit\u00e9 directeur\", charg\u00e9 de \"dire la loi\" en quelque sorte, \"r\u00e9unira des organisations internationales, des organismes de r\u00e9gulation, des responsables politiques et des prestataires de services de donn\u00e9es\". Et pour cette derni\u00e8re cat\u00e9gorie 4 noms seulement sont cit\u00e9s : Bloomberg LP, London Stock Exchange Group, Moody\u2019s, Morningstar, MSCI et S&P Global\n\nEn clair, Michael Bloomberg envoy\u00e9 sp\u00e9cial de l'ONU est venu demander \u00e0 Macron que Michael Bloomberg fournisseur de donn\u00e9es se fasse confier les cl\u00e9s du camion, \u00e0 lui et \u00e0 3 autres fournisseurs dont aucun n'est europ\u00e9en (puisque London London Stock Exchange Group n'est plus europ\u00e9en depuis le Brexit ; les 3 autres sont am\u00e9ricains), pour dire aux entreprises europ\u00e9ennes ce qu'elles doivent publier. Le secteur priv\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain vient donc demander \u00e0 la France son adh\u00e9sion pour normaliser la fourniture de donn\u00e9es climat en Europe, et notre pr\u00e9sident dit oui sans m\u00eame consulter les acteurs fran\u00e7ais !\n\nCe serait encore discutable si techniquement les am\u00e9ricains \u00e9taient meilleurs. Mais ce n'est pas le cas. En mati\u00e8re de donn\u00e9es climat, c'est la terre de naissance du bilan carbone, \u00e0 savoir la France, qui a 5 ans d'avance au moins sur les USA, m\u00eame si nous n'en faisons pas assez. Notre pr\u00e9sident plante donc un petit couteau dans le dos de l'\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me fran\u00e7ais, dont il ignore probablement l'existence parce que personne n'est riche \u00e0 milliards - heu pardon a fait une licorne - actuellement.\n\nDu coup, avec mes comp\u00e8res Alain Grandjean et Laurent Morel, nous avons publi\u00e9 une tribune un peu \u00e9nerv\u00e9e dans Le Monde pour dire que nous ne comprenions pas, et demander \u00e0 ce que l'on fasse rapidement machine arri\u00e8re. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8410306245834454881)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "bloomberg.com \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Corporate Net-Zero Goals Don\u2019t Add Up to a Net-Zero Planet by bloomberg.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-27/companies-net-zero-emissions-goals-don-t-add-up" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Corporate Net-Zero Goals Don\u2019t Add Up to a Net-Zero Planet" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6947862323298508801,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Apr\u00e8s l'Ademe, qui a pris position \"contre\" le fait qu'une entreprise puisse se revendiquer neutre en carbone, c'est une autre entit\u00e9, plus inattendue, qui vient de se ranger au m\u00eame point de vue : Bloomberg News. \n\nC'est en effet inattendu, parce que nombre de grosses entreprises am\u00e9ricaines mettent en avant des objectifs de neutralit\u00e9 (Google revendique m\u00eame l'\u00eatre depuis 2007, et Microsoft revendique de viser un \u00e9tat de \"carbone n\u00e9gatif\" !), et il y a une forme de solidarit\u00e9 des affaires au pays de l'Oncle Sam.\n\nMotif de satisfaction suppl\u00e9mentaire : Carbone 4 est abondamment cit\u00e9 dans cet article. C'est \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence une retomb\u00e9e de la Net Zero Initiative, qui f\u00e9d\u00e8re d\u00e9sormais de plus en plus d'acteurs, souscrivant \u00e0 des principes dans lesquels figurent une orthodoxie m\u00e9thodologique ainsi que l'honn\u00eatet\u00e9 dans la communication (https://lnkd.in/eNETwzGV ) \n\nCes sujets peuvent sembler bien loin des urgences sur le prix de l'\u00e9nergie ou le pouvoir d'achat. Mais m\u00eame dans un contexte chahut\u00e9 la question du cadre de r\u00e9flexion pour l'avenir reste importante. Elle fera la diff\u00e9rence entre en rajouter aux probl\u00e8mes ou bien avancer en convergence avec des solutions de plus court terme.\n\nCes derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es ont malheureusement prouv\u00e9 que l'empilement de mesures d'urgence ne fait pas n\u00e9cessairement une strat\u00e9gie de long terme qui nous d\u00e9gage de la contrainte. Pas plus qu'un empilement d'objectifs \"net zero\" au niveau des entreprises ne conduit par miracle \u00e0 un net z\u00e9ro plan\u00e9taire." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6947862323298508801,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6947862323977969664,urn:li:activity:6947862323977969664,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 24, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6947862323977969664,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6947862323977969664,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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de Christophe Blain en terra energetica qui vient d'\u00eatre publi\u00e9e. \n\nCette derni\u00e8re n'est pour le moment disponible que sous forme \u00e9lectronique, pour une raison qui fera sourire ou pas, c'est selon ! 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"Open article: Stanford University announces new climate change school with $1.1 billion from renowned venture capitalist | CNN by edition.cnn.com", "actionTarget": "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/04/us/stanford-university-climate-school/index.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Stanford University announces new climate change school with $1.1 billion from renowned venture capitalist | CNN" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6947201853734449152,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "J'en r\u00eave pour la France, et c'est aux USA, le pays du monde infini, que cela a lieu : Stanford a re\u00e7u il y a un peu plus d'un mois la promesse d'un don de 1,1 milliard de dollars (vous avez bien lu) pour cr\u00e9er \"The Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability\", qui va particuli\u00e8rement se concentrer sur le d\u00e9fi climatique. \n\nIl s'agit du deuxi\u00e8me plus gros don jamais effectu\u00e9 aux USA pour une universit\u00e9, et le plus gros jamais fait pour instaurer une nouvelle \u00e9cole. Entendons nous bien : je ne r\u00eave pas de dons priv\u00e9s. Je r\u00eave de voir des initiatives d'une ampleur similaire sur le m\u00eame sujet !\n\nCette nouvelle \u00e9cole de Stanford d\u00e9veloppera comp\u00e9tences et enseignements en sciences de la terre, technologies de l'\u00e9nergie, s\u00e9curit\u00e9 alimentaire, eau, et sant\u00e9 humaine. Il y sera aussi question de justice environnementale.\n\nJe ne suis pas sur que la premi\u00e8re demande de John Doerr, le milliardaire \u00e0 l'origine de ce don, ait \u00e9t\u00e9 la mont\u00e9e dans le classement de Shanghai :). Il a juste l'intuition que ces domaines justifient de mettre le paquet pour former utilement les g\u00e9n\u00e9rations montantes, et d\u00e9velopper de la recherche qui va avec. Si le concept est bon, le succ\u00e8s suivra.\n\nCertes l'argent ne fait pas tout. L'argent ne cr\u00e9e pas instantan\u00e9ment les comp\u00e9tences. Il ne cr\u00e9e pas n\u00e9cessairement les bonnes valeurs. Mais cette annonce va n\u00e9cessairement attirer des chercheurs et des \u00e9tudiants qui r\u00eavent de \"sauver le monde\". Si cela touche des jeunes fran\u00e7ais, nous n'aurons pas n\u00e9cessairement gagn\u00e9 : nos jeunes \"talents\" iront - comme pour le digital - cr\u00e9er de la comp\u00e9tence outre-Atlantique pour qu'ensuite le pays de l'oncle Sam d\u00e9pose (aux USA) des brevets qui nous seront opposables.... (il y a des fran\u00e7ais \u00e0 l'origine des gafa qui d\u00e9sormais nous imposent leur volont\u00e9 !).\n\nAlors que les besoins sont immenses et que l'urgence est l\u00e0, cette cr\u00e9ation californienne nous invite nous aussi \u00e0 changer d'\u00e9chelle. 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D'autres sont tr\u00e8s favorables mais leur parc en activit\u00e9 et leurs chantiers sont en baisse. D'autres encore sont tr\u00e8s favorables avec \u00e0 la fois parc et chantiers en hausse. De quoi s'agit-il ? Des r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires. The Shifters a r\u00e9alis\u00e9 un panorama de la situation du nucl\u00e9aire dans le monde, dont est extraite l'image ci-dessous, qui synth\u00e9tise en une planche ce qu'il faut retenir sur cette \u00e9nergie : https://bit.ly/3bjJ9qc\n\nOn voit imm\u00e9diatement que le nucl\u00e9aire d'aujourd'hui est majoritairement occidental (USA+Europe de l'Ouest), mais que les chantiers sont majoritairement asiatiques (ce qui tombe bien puisque c'est aussi en Asie qu'il y a le plus de charbon).\n\nEn Europe, l'opinion sur le nucl\u00e9aire y est globalement plus favorable qu'avant. Cela peut sembler paradoxal dans notre pays : alors que \"tout allait bien\" (parc disponible et sans p\u00e9pin), l'opinion \u00e9tait partag\u00e9e, et maintenant que ca va moins bien (chantier de Flamanville prenant du retard, parc en service partiellement indisponible pour raisons techniques), l'opinion est nettement plus favorable. \n\nEn fait cela s'explique si l'on se rappelle que les consid\u00e9rations techniques - et le d\u00e9bat sur les risques - passionnent seulement une petite fraction de la population. L'essentiel de la population fran\u00e7aise est sensible \u00e0 des arguments qui sont le prix, l'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, et la disponibilit\u00e9 \u00e0 venir (notamment \u00e0 cause de la voiture \u00e9lectrique). A ce compte l\u00e0 la cote d'amour du nucl\u00e9aire a tendance a suivre... le prix du p\u00e9trole !\n\nEnvie ou pas, le nucl\u00e9aire est une machine peu r\u00e9active. Entre le moment o\u00f9 l'on d\u00e9cide d'y aller et les premiers effets visibles sur la production, il faut compter environ 15 ans, sans valse h\u00e9sitation qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 le premier facteur d'affaiblissement de la fili\u00e8re fran\u00e7aise sur les 20 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. A l'inverse, c'est la constance qui est le premier facteur de succ\u00e8s pour les chinois et les russes, qui dominent aujourd'hui la sc\u00e8ne mondiale. Cette constance am\u00e8ne fili\u00e8re organis\u00e9e et financements d'Etat, indispensables au d\u00e9veloppement de cette \u00e9nergie.\n\nEn France, nous allons devoir passer la p\u00e9riode qui nous s\u00e9pare de 2030 sans r\u00e9acteur suppl\u00e9mentaire \u00e0 part Flamanville. Beaucoup de voix disent que cela l\u00e9gitime de construire des capacit\u00e9s solaires et \u00e9oliennes aussi vite que possible. Mais il faut rappeler que ces derni\u00e8res ne sont pas pilotables, et que l'on ne remplace pas un pour un du nucl\u00e9aire par de l'intermittent. \n\nL'Allemagne a montr\u00e9 que, en termes de capacit\u00e9s install\u00e9es, ce que l'on fait est de remplacer du nucl\u00e9aire par ENR+gaz (ou + charbon !). Mais cela suppose... que l'on ait du gaz (cette condition aux limites faisait rigoler tout le monde quand j'en parlais il y a 10 ans...).\n\nDit autrement, en Europe de l'Ouest les atermoiements des 20 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es vont se payer de toute fa\u00e7on. C'est probablement aussi le rationnement qui va servir de variable d'ajustement." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6947081354790498304,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6947081355595812864,urn:li:activity:6947081355595812864,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 39, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6947081355595812864,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6947081355595812864,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7088680671883993466)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lemonde.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: TotalEnergies, EDF et Engie appellent les Fran\u00e7ais \u00e0 consommer moins d\u2019\u00e9nergie by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2022/06/26/totalenergies-edf-et-engie-appellent-les-francais-a-consommer-moins-d-energie_6132060_3244.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "TotalEnergies, EDF et Engie appellent les Fran\u00e7ais \u00e0\u00a0consommer moins d\u2019\u00e9nergie" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6946885840992137216,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est une premi\u00e8re : une tribune sign\u00e9e conjointement d'EDF, Engie et Total qui appelle les fran\u00e7ais \u00e0 faire des \u00e9conomies. C'est doublement une premi\u00e8re en fait.\n\nLa premi\u00e8re premi\u00e8re est que ces trois entreprises soient unies dans cet appel alors que ce sont habituellement des concurrentes (et des adversaires en justice \u00e0 l'occasion). Il faut y voir le signe que la situation devrait se tendre \u00e0 tr\u00e8s court terme. De fait, l'Europe ne peut pas se tourner facilement vers d'autres producteurs pour substituer les approvisionnements russes, qui repr\u00e9sentaient 30% du p\u00e9trole et 40% du gaz avant l'Ukraine.\n\nPasser l'hiver avec chauffage \"normal\" et sans d\u00e9lestages devient donc une question. Garantir la mobilit\u00e9 pour tou(te)s avec un carburant disponible et n'atteignant pas des niveaux de prix encore augment\u00e9s est aussi un sujet. Rien de tout cela n'est une surprise pour qui avait un peu regard\u00e9 le sujet. Mais peu de gens avaient regard\u00e9... \n\nLa deuxi\u00e8me premi\u00e8re est que ce soient des entreprises priv\u00e9es qui fassent le boulot de l'Etat. Car s'il existe un risque majeur de ne pas passer l'hiver sans coupures, c'est \u00e0 l'Etat qu'il revient de mettre en mouvement la population ! Cet appel aurait du \u00eatre sign\u00e9 Macron, Borne et Pannier Runacher..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6946885840992137216,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6946885842023944192,urn:li:activity:6946885842023944192,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 323, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6946885842023944192,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6946885842023944192,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6946748488219029504,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 1061, "length": 13, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Aur\u00e9lien", "lastName": "Bigo", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAADPyQA0BrxkTHyC6-wjTX8G-9IMV013F330", "occupation": "Chercheur sur la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique des transports", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:871514125", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAADPyQA0BrxkTHyC6-wjTX8G-9IMV013F330", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1653900470139?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=0JWitFviYmtCXSpiBNd23Ql53xXVoIUOvP1FeuRTLjw", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1653900470139?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=aniO_Yd4PMwGdhueX2bclYq8dZ3HbkuDj4XKK2cngPc", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 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Cette avant-derni\u00e8re chronique de l'ann\u00e9e (scolaire) sur RTL compare les divers modes de transport que vont utiliser les personnes qui partiront en vacances, pour celles qui ont cette chance. Il faut en effet rappeler que 40% des fran\u00e7ais ne partent pas en vacances (https://lnkd.in/erKdgch8 ), proportion qui n'est que de 20% pour les gens qui gagnent plus de 2600 euros par mois, et qui sont probablement majoritaires sur ce r\u00e9seau.\n\nPour comparer l'efficacit\u00e9 des divers modes de transport, la mani\u00e8re la plus courante est de mesurer les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre ramen\u00e9es au passager et au kilom\u00e8tre. Avec cette mani\u00e8re de faire, la voiture n'est pas beaucoup moins \u00e9mettrice que l'avion : si l'on utilise une voiture \u00e0 6 litres aux 100 remplie \"comme pour un d\u00e9part en vacances\", les \u00e9missions par personne et par km sont inf\u00e9rieures de 15% \u00e0 celles qui auraient eu lieu lors d'un voyage en avion (toujours par personne et par km).\n\nMais, fait remarquer Aur\u00e9lien Bigo, ce n'est pas le km parcouru qu'il faut utiliser comme base de comparaison, mais plut\u00f4t l'heure de transport. Car nous avons une constante biologique qui intervient lorsque nous nous d\u00e9pla\u00e7ons pour les vacances : nous faisons toujours des trajets de quelques heures. De fait, l'avion ne permet pas d'aller plus vite l\u00e0 o\u00f9 va la voiture : il permet d'aller plus loin avec le m\u00eame budget temps pour le d\u00e9placement.\n\nEt c'est donc par heure de trajet qu'il faut compter et non par jour. Avec cette unit\u00e9, le r\u00e9sultat n'est plus du tout le m\u00eame. Prendre l'avion \u00e9met 10 fois plus (par heure) que la voiture, et la voiture \u00e9met 10 fois plus (toujours par heure) que le train : https://lnkd.in/eWVkg8gG\n\nSi ce n'est pas d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait, pour celles et ceux qui auront la chance de partir en vacances (bis), pensez y !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6946748488219029504,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6946748489385041920,urn:li:activity:6946748489385041920,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 54, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6946748489385041920,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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\"strat\u00e9gie de r\u00e9silience des territoires\" (https://lnkd.in/diZSF5w ) qui portait sur les mesures \u00e0 mettre en oeuvre pour g\u00e9rer un avenir plus contrari\u00e9 (notamment par le changement climatique) avec moins de moyens, c'est au tour d'I4CE de prendre position sur le sujet, en citant 18 mesures \"sans regrets\" qui devraient \u00eatre prises pour mieux pr\u00e9parer notre pays \u00e0 ce qui va nous tomber dessus : https://lnkd.in/ep6YB5R4\n\nA la diff\u00e9rence du Shift Project qui reste toujours tr\u00e8s prudent d\u00e8s qu'il s'agit de chiffrer les mesures en euros, I4CE donne des montants. 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Mais il faut rappeler que la d\u00e9pense pour l'un est du chiffre d'affaires pour l'autre : inutile donc d'avoir trop peur des montants en euros !\n\nEt de fait il faudra aller encore plus loin : pourrons nous garder des grosses villes - ou plus exactement leur approvisionnement en nourriture et en biens de toute nature - dans un monde sobre en \u00e9nergie ? Comment anticiper l'\u00e9conomie qui fait vivre un territoire dans un monde sobre et au climat en d\u00e9rive ? \n\nPlus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement comment aborder une contrainte multiple (\u00e9nergie, climat, biodiversit\u00e9, ressources, comp\u00e9tences... ) \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle d'un territoire ?\n\nLe sujet est embryonnaire mais urgent. 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il semblerait que le pr\u00e9sident ait aussi appel\u00e9 \u00e0 faire de la lutte contre le changement climatique une priorit\u00e9 sans que cela ne change grand chose \u00e0 court terme.\n\nIl faut dire que la situation du pays est de plus en plus d\u00e9sagr\u00e9able, notamment en ce qui concerne la disponibilit\u00e9 de la ressource en eau, qui baisse structurellement sur la r\u00e9gion, et ensuite qui peut baisser \u00e0 cause d'une r\u00e9partition qui change entre pays quand un m\u00eame fleuve en traverse plusieurs.\n\nA la diff\u00e9rence de la Syrie voisine, l'Irak dispose de fortes recettes \u00e0 l'exportation - li\u00e9es au p\u00e9trole - qui varient comme le prix de la nourriture (car le prix du bl\u00e9 et le prix du p\u00e9trole sont assez fortement asservis sur les march\u00e9s mondiaux). \n\nComme pour l'Alg\u00e9rie, une baisse de la disponibilit\u00e9 domestique en nourriture n'est pas dramatique tant que l'or noir peut fournir des recettes \u00e0 l'exportation pour se payer les importations n\u00e9cessaires. Mais ca ne durera qu'un temps... car la fin du p\u00e9trole, \u00e0 cause de la transition ou par \u00e9puisement des gisements, conduira ce pays, comme beaucoup d'autres, \u00e0 faire face \u00e0 un d\u00e9fi \u00e9conomique pour lequel il n'a aujourd'hui pas de solution \u00e9vidente, en plus du changement climatique bien sur..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6945984936889745408,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6945984937686671360,urn:li:activity:6945984937686671360,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 24, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6945984937686671360,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 :..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "[EXTRAIT] Jancovici sur l\u2019importance des ordres de grandeur face au changement climatique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6945771075133714434,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a quelques semaines j'ai enregistr\u00e9 un podcast de 2 heures (rien que ca :) ) pour la chaine \"Generation Do it Yourself\" : https://lnkd.in/e2NHbF82\n\nIl en a \u00e9t\u00e9 tir\u00e9 un extrait (de 6 minutes) qui concerne plus particuli\u00e8rement la contrainte purement g\u00e9ologique portant sur l'approvisionnement europ\u00e9en en p\u00e9trole, et quelques implications qu'il est possible d'en tirer pour notre syst\u00e8me de transport.\n\nUne raison de plus de d\u00e9carboner \u00e0 toute vitesse, c'est de circonstance !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Crise du gaz : l'Allemagne va recourir davantage au charbon by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/les-industriels-allemands-veulent-relancer-les-centrales-a-charbons-1414300" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Crise du gaz\u00a0: l'Allemagne va recourir davantage\u00a0au charbon" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6945626742678020096,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Lorsque les allemands ont pris la d\u00e9cision de fermer pr\u00e9matur\u00e9ment leurs centrales nucl\u00e9aires, en le rempla\u00e7ant \"transitoirement\" par du gaz, \"il n'\u00e9tait pas pr\u00e9vu\" que le tuyau de gaz en provenance de Russie soit indisponible.\n\nR\u00e9sultat des courses : la d\u00e9pendance au charbon va remonter, ce qui est antagoniste avec l'objectif climatique de l'Europe (ce qui n'emp\u00eachera pas la classe politique de dire que cela ne pose aucun probl\u00e8me puisque c'est temporaire !). \n\nL'enseignement \u00e0 en tirer est assez clair : pour le moment, les plans de \"transition\" n'int\u00e8grent pas le risque d'indisponibilit\u00e9 d'un \u00e9l\u00e9ment de la solution envisag\u00e9e pour un avenir radieux. Cette indisponibilit\u00e9 peut relever :\n\n- d'un d\u00e9faut physique d'une ressource import\u00e9e (exemples : pas assez de gaz import\u00e9, ou pas assez de panneaux solaires import\u00e9s) \n\n- d'un d\u00e9faut physique parce que le dispositif qui n'existe pas encore et sur lequel on fait un pari n'est en fait pas disponible \u00e0 temps (voire pas du tout) (exemples : pas de moyen de stockage \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle via le gaz, ou pas d'hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle).\n\n- d'un dysfonctionnement sur une ressource existante (exemples : arr\u00eat de tranches nucl\u00e9aires pour maintenance \"quand ca n'est pas le moment\" - cas post covid - ou pour probl\u00e8mes techniques, d\u00e9faut d'eau dans les barrages - cas du Br\u00e9sil : https://reut.rs/3HJdo6f, etc)\n\nL'\u00e9nergie est le sang du monde moderne. Tout en d\u00e9pend, et notamment le sacro-saint PIB. De ce fait, faire un pari sur la com\u00e8te en ce qui concerne la disponibilit\u00e9 de l'\u00e9nergie (pas juste \u00e9lectrique) est faire un pari sur la com\u00e8te pour le pouvoir d'achat, les retraites (tout petit lien avec l'actualit\u00e9 politique \u00e0 l'attention de tous les nouveaux d\u00e9put\u00e9s :) ), le tourisme, les ephad, la disponibilit\u00e9 de la nourriture, et j'en passeIl est temps que le d\u00e9bat sur le futur \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique retrouve la place qu'il n'aurait jamais du perdre : celle d'un d\u00e9bat central, fait par des gens inform\u00e9s, et conscients que tout le reste en d\u00e9pend. \n\nLe/la premier(e) ministre devrait \u00eatre avant tout un(e) ministre comprenant les ressources physiques ou \"r\u00e9elles\" (dont le vivant fait partie). Une anecdote parmi d'autres : pas plus tard que la semaine derni\u00e8re j'ai pu constater que le nouvel ex\u00e9cutif ne sait jours pas ce qui va se passer sur le p\u00e9trole dans le monde (https://bit.ly/3uj3Vx5)...\n\nSi nous voulons \u00e9viter que les l\u00e9gislatives de la semaine derni\u00e8re ne soient qu'un avant-gout d'un d\u00e9sordre bien plus prononc\u00e9 \u00e0 venir, il est temps que cela cesse et que nous soyons collectivement capables de comprendre la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 physique, puis de la regarder en face.\n\nL'initiative de formation des nouveaux d\u00e9put\u00e9s est bien sur louable. Mais il faut bien plus de 20 minutes pour comprendre que l'indicateur \u00e9conomique conventionnel ne contient pas les informations qui permettent de deviner son \u00e9volution future. 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biodiversit\u00e9). De plus en plus d'entreprises cherchent donc \u00e0 appr\u00e9hender le sujet pour, id\u00e9alement, finir par l'int\u00e9grer dans un ou plusieurs processus.\n\nEn version tr\u00e8s peu ambitieuse les entreprises s'int\u00e9ressent au climat ou \u00e0 la biodiversit\u00e9 pour faire un rapport d\u00e9veloppement durable qui met en avant les quelques initiatives qui vont dans le bon sens, sans que quoi que ce soit de significatif ait chang\u00e9 dans le fonctionnement par ailleurs.\n\nEn version tr\u00e8s ambitieuse elles font appel \u00e0 nous pour questionner les march\u00e9s, politiques produits, investissements, organisations, etc (inutile de dire que ce sont celles que l'on pr\u00e9f\u00e8re !). Entre les deux on observe toutes les nuances de gris.\n\nDans tous les cas de figure, comme les journ\u00e9es ne sont pas extensibles, cet afflux de demandes signifie que nous avons besoin de monde. Il y a actuellement 14 postes \u00e0 pourvoir c\u00f4t\u00e9 conseil et 2 c\u00f4t\u00e9 data (https://lnkd.in/enMNQpQA ).\n\nAu sein de la branche conseil il y a notamment 4 offres o\u00f9 nous cherchons un peu plus des moutons \u00e0 5 pattes qui sont :\n- chef de projet biodiversit\u00e9 (https://lnkd.in/eEUKcFKZ )\n- chef de projet strat\u00e9gie att\u00e9nuation (https://lnkd.in/e3NhxQmr )\n- consultant senior secteur luxe et retail (https://lnkd.in/e8Nnesiw ). NB : pourquoi des partisans de la d\u00e9carbonation s'int\u00e9ressent au luxe, trop souvent symbole des exc\u00e8s ? 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"fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1643034363314?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=wBWhXFvEec1lymDLcw6ad3IxncMLoCv-uLZa13WVLZI", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1643034363314?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=cyfLF3LgIqX1gzD-J2UUWN4L8fPBN0O6T51c6qTyGjM", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1643034363314?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=-KmxEKiiM6O-eCq0P-zO1vFsLvjIEKY25E2gEHkEveo", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C5603AQFMIu0PVPgKoA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "H9IIKH5bQsu4BPqT6eQZzA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "\"Les banques sont le reflet de l'\u00e9conomie d'aujourd'hui. Si cette \u00e9conomie est brune, alors le bilan des banques sera brun.\". Ainsi se termine cette analyse d'un journaliste des Echos, Gabriel Nedelec, dans l'\u00e9dition du journal dat\u00e9e d'hier. \n\nDe fait, c'est aussi la th\u00e8se d'Alain Grandjean et Julien Lefournier dans \"L'illusion de la finance verte\" (https://lnkd.in/dRS9vNZ ), o\u00f9 les auteurs expliquent pourquoi les grandes banques (le raisonnement est moins vrai pour de petits \u00e9tablissements), qui pr\u00eatent \u00e0 tout le monde et ach\u00e8tent les actions \u00e9mises par tout le monde, ne peuvent se diff\u00e9rencier de l'\u00e9conomie dans son ensemble. \n\nSi cette derni\u00e8re nous emm\u00e8ne vers un monde \u00e0 3 ou 4 degr\u00e9s de r\u00e9chauffement, alors les grandes banques ne peuvent \u00eatre 2\u00b0C ou 1,5 \u00b0C (ou \"neutres en carbone\"). Il n'y a en effet pas assez de morceaux \"propres\" de l'\u00e9conomie qui pourraient accueillir la totalit\u00e9 des pr\u00eats et investissements figurant au bilan de ces banques. Lorsque l'on fait 1000 \u00e0 2000 milliards d'euros de total de bilan (cas de BNPP, BPCE, Cr\u00e9dit Agricole, ou Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale) il n'est pas possible de limiter son activit\u00e9 \u00e0 des entreprises qui sont \"align\u00e9es 2\u00b0C\", c'est \u00e0 dire en pratique capables de rester en \"bonne sant\u00e9 \u00e9conomique\" dans un monde o\u00f9 les \u00e9missions baissent de 5% par an. Il faut n\u00e9cessairement pr\u00eater \u00e0 des entreprises ou \u00e9tats \"pas align\u00e9s\" quand on manie de telles sommes d'argent.\n\nIl n'est donc pas \u00e9tonnant que de plus en plus d'\u00e9tablissements se fassent reprocher de raconter des carabistouilles par des r\u00e9gulateurs, au motif que les affirmations de compatibilit\u00e9 de leurs produits financiers avec une \u00e9conomie bas carbone ne sont pas fond\u00e9es.\n\nLe noeud de l'affaire est la m\u00e9thode employ\u00e9e. Si on oublie de payer la TVA dans une entreprise, il est plus facile de dire qu'elle est b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaire. De m\u00eame, il est plus facile de dire que l'on est compatible avec une \u00e9conomie bas carbone si le p\u00e9rim\u00e8tre de ce qui est examin\u00e9 est trop restreint, ou si les seuils utilis\u00e9s sont trop bas.\n\nCe n'est pas qu'une question de \"cesser de financer le p\u00e9trole\". Financer la marine marchande, une cha\u00eene de valeur mondialis\u00e9e, ou un hypermarch\u00e9, c'est aussi indirectement \"financer le p\u00e9trole\" aujourd'hui. La premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape pour les banques est d\u00e9j\u00e0 de bien comprendre \"\u00e0 quelles distance elles sont du probl\u00e8me\". Cela demande un gros effort de formation sur la compr\u00e9hension de la nature du probl\u00e8me \u00e9nergie climat pour l'ensemble des effectifs, et le d\u00e9ploiement d'une m\u00e9trique carbone appropri\u00e9e applicable \u00e0 chaque op\u00e9ration unitaire (ce qui coute 5% \u00e0 10% de la d\u00e9pense informatique). 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"PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Ils s'adressent \u00e0 un public qui, parfois, \"les conna\u00eet mieux que le pr\u00e9sident de la r\u00e9publique\", et qui n'a probablement pas vot\u00e9 en masse hier. \"Ils\", ce sont les influenceurs, terme \u00e9l\u00e9gant pour d\u00e9signer des versions high tech de l'homme sandwich, c'est \u00e0 dire des gens dont le m\u00e9tier est de vanter des produits ou services. \n\nEn pratique, ces \"influenceurs\" sont des esp\u00e8ces de r\u00e9gies publicitaires, \u00e0 ceci pr\u00e8s qu'ils sont moins r\u00e9gul\u00e9s que ces derni\u00e8res (ils peuvent par exemple vanter de l'alcool).\n\nUn collectif - \"Paye ton influence\" - s'est mis en t\u00eate d'interpeller ces \"hommes sandwich\" et \"femmes sandwich\" des temps modernes, en leur demandant de faire un peu plus attention \u00e0 l'aspect environnemental de ce dont ils font la promotion https://lnkd.in/eWGYzcGb \n\nLa \"reconversion\" existe parfois : ainsi Vinz Kant\u00e9 est carr\u00e9ment pass\u00e9 de la publicit\u00e9 pour des objets ou services au... militantisme climatique pur et dur (voir un article de Reporterre dans lequel il explique un peu son parcours : https://lnkd.in/eqeYkxgY ).\n\nSi les influenceurs sont conformes \u00e0 leur public, et que les m\u00e9decins disent vrai quand ils d\u00e9clarent que 60% des jeunes de 16 \u00e0 25 ans sont angoiss\u00e9s par la crise climatique (https://lnkd.in/eT_7Nd_a ), il faut esp\u00e9rer que l'exemple de Vinz Kant\u00e9 sera suivi par de nombreux autres. \n\nA quand une masse d'influenceurs et d'influenceuses qui ne parlent que d'objets dont le bilan carbone est bas et qui occasionnent des \u00e9missions \u00e9vit\u00e9es ? 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6944226359338524672,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est en pleine canicule que l'on apprend que nous allons peut-\u00eatre... avoir froid cet hiver. La Russie fournissait 40% du gaz europ\u00e9en avant le d\u00e9but des hostilit\u00e9s en Ukraine, soit environ 160 milliards de m3 par an sur une consommation d'environ 400. Depuis le d\u00e9but de ce conflit, les europ\u00e9ens cherchent \u00e0 diversifier leur approvisionnement, notamment aupr\u00e8s des USA. \n\nEn fait, on ne parle pas des m\u00eames ordres de grandeur : Les USA ont fournit environ 25 milliards de m3 de gaz (liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9) \u00e0 l'Europe en 2021, soit un petit sixi\u00e8me de ce que nous exportent les russes.\n\nMais r\u00e9cemment l'adversit\u00e9 vient de se manifester des deux cot\u00e9s \u00e0 la fois. Tout d'abord un des trains de liqu\u00e9faction am\u00e9ricains qui approvisionnent l'Europe vient de conna\u00eetre un incendie qui va le rendre totalement ou partiellement indisponible jusqu'\u00e0 la fin de l'ann\u00e9e (https://lnkd.in/eNBUzt5q ).\n\nA l'est, le principal gazoduc alimentant l'Europe, Nordstream 1, voit son d\u00e9bit baisser, \"officiellement\" parce qu'une partie des turbines de compression ne peut pas revenir de maintenance \u00e0 l'\u00e9tranger (elle \u00e9tait chez Siemens). Apr\u00e8s les importations en provenance de Yamal et celles transitant par l'Ukraine, c'est donc au tour de ce qui arrive par la Baltique de commencer \u00e0 faiblir (voir graphique en commentaire).\n\nDans le grand plan de verdissement de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne sans nucl\u00e9aire initi\u00e9 par les allemands il y a 20 ans, \"on\" comptait beaucoup sur le gaz comme \"\u00e9nergie de transition\" (laquelle \"transition\" est en fait un \u00e9tat permanent tant que l'on ne sait pas stocker l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 tr\u00e8s large \u00e9chelle, et qu'il faut garder des capacit\u00e9s install\u00e9es fossiles pour assurer le pilotage du r\u00e9seau : https://lnkd.in/eVP7ZeH6 ). \n\nSauf que pour cela il faut du gaz...\n\nLa bonne nouvelle est qu'avec moins de gaz on va moins contribuer aux \u00e9missions dans le chauffage, puisque 60% du gaz sert au confort thermique des b\u00e2timents. Mais la mauvaise est que le charbon - donc le CO2 \u00e9lectrique - repart \u00e0 la hausse puisque les r\u00e9seaux \u00e9lectriques ne peuvent pas se passer de sources pilotables. \n\nL'actualit\u00e9 est malheureusement une r\u00e9p\u00e9tition \u00e0 petite \u00e9chelle du cadre dans lequel il faut penser nos plans pour l'avenir : plus de cons\u00e9quences d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ables du changement climatique avec moins d'\u00e9nergie pour organiser nos activit\u00e9s. C'est dans ce cadre qu'il faut penser \"adaptation\". Et la conclusion est que nous ne nous \"adapterons\" pas \u00e0 tout (https://lnkd.in/e_MHKBeM ). Loin s'en faut....\n\nSur ce bon vote !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6944226359338524672,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6944226360127062016,urn:li:activity:6944226360127062016,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 101, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6944226360127062016,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6944226360127062016,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6944226360127062016", 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Il dit une chose pas sympathique : les vagues de chaleur vont augmenter beaucoup plus rapidement que la moyenne de la temp\u00e9rature, et leur intensit\u00e9 maximale va aussi augmenter plus vite que la moyenne des temp\u00e9ratures.\n\nPrenons l'\u00e9pisode le plus chaud du climat de la deuxi\u00e8me moiti\u00e9 du 19\u00e8 si\u00e8cle. Avec un degr\u00e9 de r\u00e9chauffement global, c'est \u00e0 dire \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s maintenant, la pire vague de chaleur de 1850-1900 est d\u00e9pass\u00e9e une fois tous les 10 ans, et la temp\u00e9rature atteinte \u00e0 ce moment l\u00e0 est 1,2 \u00b0C plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que la maximale du 19\u00e8 si\u00e8cle.\n\nA 1,5\u00b0C (objectif politique en version ambitieuse, qui ne sera pas tenu sauf pand\u00e9mie ou autre effondrement rapide) la pire vague de chaleur de 1850-1900 est d\u00e9pass\u00e9e quasiment une fois tous les 5 ans, et \u00e0 ce moment l\u00e0 le maximum d\u00e9passe de 2\u00b0C le maximum de la p\u00e9riode pr\u00e9industrielle.\n\nA 2\u00b0C (version haute de l'objectif politique) c'est tous les 3 ans que le max de 1850-1900 est d\u00e9pass\u00e9, et il l'est de quasiment 3\u00b0C. \n\nA 4\u00b0C - version \"charbon \u00e0 fond\" - le max de 1850-1900 est d\u00e9pass\u00e9 quasiment tous les ans de plus de 5\u00b0C. C'est aussi dans ce monde l\u00e0 que 2 milliards d'\u00eatres humains - m\u00eame bien portants - ne peuvent quasiment plus mettre le nez dehors sans risquer de mourir plus de 300 jours par an (il n'est alors plus possible de travailler dehors sauf peut-\u00eatre la nuit, donc plus d'agriculture, et donc en pratique ca devient invivable au sens premier).\n\nCa, ce sont les pr\u00e9visions. Mais quand on compare les pr\u00e9visions d'il y a 10 ans avec l'\u00e9volution actuelle, on se rend compte que \"la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 d\u00e9passe la fiction\", c'est \u00e0 dire que les records de chaud ont augment\u00e9 plus rapidement que ce qui \u00e9tait envisag\u00e9 il y a une d\u00e9cennie. De l\u00e0 \u00e0 se dire que les pr\u00e9visions actuelles sont conservatrices...\n\nComme l'\u00e9volution du climat plan\u00e9taire d\u00e9pend avant tout de ce que feront l'ensemble des pays de la plan\u00e8te, il faut se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 vivre dans un climat qui va de toute fa\u00e7on devenir de plus en plus hostile. \n\nD\u00e9j\u00e0 que la question de la d\u00e9carbonation (indispensable et de toute fa\u00e7on subie si elle n'est pas volontaire) de nos activit\u00e9s peine \u00e0 se faire un chemin dans les d\u00e9bats politiques : en ce qui concerne \"l'adaptation\" - que je pr\u00e9f\u00e8re qualifier de \"r\u00e9silience\", parce que l'on ne parviendra pas \u00e0 tout pr\u00e9server en \"s'adaptant\", et il y a des choses que l'on sait d\u00e9j\u00e0 que l'on va perdre - l\u00e0 c'est le silence int\u00e9gral dans les d\u00e9bats. Z\u00e9ro (pour la) question. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7911589805815432248)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "adventuresbydisney.com \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Disney Parks Around The World \u2013 A Private Jet Adventure | Adventures By Disney by adventuresbydisney.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.adventuresbydisney.com/around-the-world/global-jet-adventures/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Disney Parks Around The World \u2013 A Private Jet Adventure | Adventures By Disney" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6943491388135096320,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Chez Disney on vend du r\u00eave. Et comme 42\u00b0C \u00e0 l'ombre en juin ne fait pas r\u00eaver, Disney vous propose, si vous avez 100.000 $ de c\u00f4t\u00e9, de contribuer \u00e0 faire passer cela \u00e0 43\u00b0C le plus vite possible, en embarquant \u00e0 bord d'un jet priv\u00e9 pour faire le tour des parcs Disney \u00e0 travers le monde.\n\nRep\u00e9r\u00e9e en pleine canicule battant un nouveau record de pr\u00e9cocit\u00e9 (avant le prochain record, malheureusement, puisque dans un climat en d\u00e9rive permanente la notion m\u00eame de \"normale\" n'existe plus), cette pub est, au choix, d\u00e9sesp\u00e9rante, provocante, irresponsable, ou... normale. En effet, une fois que vous faites le m\u00e9tier que vous faites, canicule ou pas, on continue !\n\nLorsque l'Etat fran\u00e7ais a permis \u00e0 Disney d'artificialiser des milliers d'hectares (de terres agricoles de bonne qualit\u00e9 pour l'essentiel) \u00e0 l'Est de Paris pour cr\u00e9er un aspirateur \u00e0 touristes a\u00e9roport\u00e9s et un temple de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de consommation am\u00e9ricaine (avec un plus un partage des recettes qui laissait les charges d'am\u00e9nagement \u00e0 la France pendant que b\u00e9n\u00e9fices allaient aux USA), la suite \u00e9tait \u00e9crite. Une fois que des dizaines de milliers d'emplois en d\u00e9pendent, tout arr\u00eater rapidement devient tr\u00e8s difficile. \n\nMais.... le transport a\u00e9rien est n\u00e9 avec le p\u00e9trole, et le trafic actuel est impossible \u00e0 maintenir sans p\u00e9trole. Or ce dernier est \u00e9puisable. La \"d\u00e9crue\" de l'acheminement d'une partie des touristes est donc inexorable \u00e0 terme, et partant celle de l'activit\u00e9 aussi. Ne pas le faire volontairement signifie juste que ce sont des \"impr\u00e9vus\" qui s'en chargeront \u00e0 notre place.\n\nEt pour le moment rien dans la formation des politiques ne les pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 g\u00e9rer de mani\u00e8re planifi\u00e9e la contraction d'activit\u00e9s qui sont en totale opposition avec l'enjeu climatique, avec \u00e0 la cl\u00e9 la reconversion des salari\u00e9s vers d'autres activit\u00e9s qui sont plus \"align\u00e9es\" avec un monde bas carbone. Cette remarque ne vaut pas que pour Disney, \u00e9videmment.\n\nTant que ce verrou l\u00e0 n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 trait\u00e9, la chaine amont continuera d'exister, et on verra en pleine canicule des pubs qui paraissent totalement d\u00e9plac\u00e9es. Pour des jets priv\u00e9s permettant de visiter les parcs Disney comme pour le reste." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6943491388135096320,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6943491388860723200,urn:li:activity:6943491388860723200,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 244, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6943491388860723200,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6943491388860723200,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Comme son nom l'indique facilement, il s'agit d'un endroit o\u00f9 \"que vive la technologie\". En pleine canicule, pas que chez nous du reste (https://bit.ly/3mTL1IY ), il est int\u00e9ressant de voir quelles sont les innovations mises en avant. \n\nOn trouve des taxis volants, Notre Dame en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 virtuelle, des robots dans les champs, une application qui permet \"d'interagir en 3D avec des personnes comme si elles \u00e9taient dans le m\u00eame espace physique\", ou encore des NFT et autres d\u00e9veloppements qui sont autant de promesses de licornes (qui ne se d\u00e9finissent, rappelons le, qu'\u00e0 partir du niveau de valorisation de capital, et pas du tout \u00e0 partir de leur utilit\u00e9 sociale). \n\nLa question est pos\u00e9e de savoir si cela vaut le coup d'accro\u00eetre les \u00e9missions pour disposer de ces innovations, dont le d\u00e9ploiement \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle demandera mat\u00e9riaux et \u00e9nergie. Les Echos - qui consacrent un suppl\u00e9ment \u00e0 la chose - n'abordent le probl\u00e8me qu'au travers des d\u00e9clarations de patrons de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de la \"tech\", qui sont autant de brevets de vertu autoproclam\u00e9s pour expliquer que leur activit\u00e9 est bien \u00e9videmment compatible avec la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique (voir l'exemple de celui de Huawei en commentaire).\n\nCarbone 4 s'est pench\u00e9 sur un cas particulier : les op\u00e9rateurs de \"Cloud\". Eux aussi multiplient les affirmations de neutralit\u00e9, voire m\u00eame, et ce n'est pas un poisson d'avril, d'empreinte carbone \"n\u00e9gative\", comme l'annonce cr\u00e2nement Microsoft (qui se revendique donc \u00eatre un \"aspirateur \u00e0 carbone\" ! Rien que ca...).\n\nLa publication que nous avons faite \u00e0 la suite ne fait que confirmer ce qui se pressent assez facilement : la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 (des \u00e9missions) d\u00e9passe la fiction (du r\u00e9cit \"conte de f\u00e9es\") : https://lnkd.in/euN4xHHq \n\nMais comment peut-il en \u00eatre autrement, quand les affirmations sont faites sur la seule base de l'envie que l'on en a, ou de m\u00e9thodes simplistes qui ne sont pas du tout adapt\u00e9es \u00e0 ce qui se passe physiquement ?\n\nSi \"la tech\" veut vraiment devenir s\u00e9rieuse sur la question elle doit :\n- faire des calculs avec des m\u00e9thodes adapt\u00e9es (et audit\u00e9es) sur l'empreinte carbone des d\u00e9veloppements propos\u00e9s (les m\u00e9thodes existent)\n- joindre ce calcul \u00e0 tout dossier de lev\u00e9e de fonds\n- s'interdire de d\u00e9velopper toute nouveaut\u00e9 qui n'est pas compatible avec une baisse de 5% par an des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires (la m\u00e9thode pour faire cela existe)\n\nEt sym\u00e9triquement les fonds d'investissement (private equity en anglais) devraient s'interdire de mettre le moindre dollar dans des \"techs\" qui ne sont pas compatibles avec la m\u00eame baisse des \u00e9missions de 5% par an. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7831353924846091183)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "slate.fr \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Les images d'enfants sous des jets d'eau n'ont rien \u00e0 faire dans les sujets canicule des JT by slate.fr", "actionTarget": "http://www.slate.fr/story/229185/canicule-pas-enfants-jouent-eau-jt-illustration-television-rechauffement-climatique" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les images d'enfants sous des jets d'eau n'ont rien \u00e0 faire dans les sujets canicule des JT" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6942834645541527552,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il n'y a donc pas que moi pour me plaindre du traitement m\u00e9diatique \"pas assez \u00e0 la hauteur\" sur la question climatique. Cet article de Slate pointe un traitement de la canicule que toute personne ayant regard\u00e9 un journal t\u00e9l\u00e9vis\u00e9 a vu au moins une fois : des gens en train de se rafra\u00eechir dans une fontaine ou une piscine. \n\nC'est sur que quand on a une \u00e9quipe de reportage dans une ville, se d\u00e9placer jusqu'\u00e0 la fontaine du coin est ce qui prend le moins de temps - ca va vite et nul besoin de faire autre chose que du micro-trottoir avec des gens disant que \"ben oui il faut chaud\" - et demande le moins de jus de cerveau au journaliste et au t\u00e9l\u00e9spectateur. De mani\u00e8re analogue, j'ai d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu des sujets s\u00e9cheresse o\u00f9 le sujet du reportage \u00e9tait la difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 laver sa voiture !\n\nPour bien faire les choses en pareil cas - canicule ou s\u00e9cheresse - il faudrait surtout :\n- aller en for\u00eat voir les arbres qui meurent - par morceaux ou enti\u00e8rement - sous le coup de ces vagues de chaud et sec \n- aller dans les champs voir les r\u00e9coltes qui souffrent \u00e0 cause de la temp\u00e9rature et de la s\u00e9cheresse excessives\n- rappeler que les disettes sont capables de jeter bas des r\u00e9gimes politiques,\n- aller voir les infrastructures qui se fissurent \u00e0 cause de la r\u00e9tractation des argiles\n- aller voir les esp\u00e8ces qui meurent de chaud et rappeler que sans esp\u00e8ces du tout nous ne serons plus l\u00e0 pour nous plaindre de la disparition de la biodiversit\u00e9\n- et en plus rappeler que la d\u00e9rive climatique \u00e9tant inarr\u00eatable \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle du si\u00e8cle, les images qui sont montr\u00e9es seront suivies par pire et que ce n'est qu'une question de temps.\n\nPourquoi faire tout cela ? Par sadisme ? Non : parce que informer, ce n'est pas anesth\u00e9sier. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7508018678750428887)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "univershifte.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Programme by univershifte.fr", "actionTarget": "https://univershifte.fr/programme/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Programme" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6942723819966971904,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Univershift\u00e9, c'est le grand rassemblement annuel des shifters, mais pas que. Survenant moins d'une semaine apr\u00e8s le 2\u00e8 tour des l\u00e9gislatives, c'est l'occasion pour de \"simples curieux\" comme pour des passionn\u00e9(e)s d'assister \u00e0 des conf\u00e9rences sur le d\u00e9fi ou sur des propositions pour s'y attaquer, de faire des ateliers, et plus largement de venir discuter climat et \u00e9nergie avec plein d'autres personnes au sein d'une communaut\u00e9 qui grandit chaque jour, et tout cela dans la joie et la bonne humeur.\n\nA un peu plus d'une semaine de l'\u00e9v\u00e9nement, il n'\u00e9tait que temps, diront les mauvaises langues : le programme complet de l'Univershift\u00e9 est en ligne (https://lnkd.in/dQCtzZWm ). Normalement il y en a pour (presque) tous les gouts et toutes les couleurs !\n\nOn pourra y parler de la vague de chaleur la plus pr\u00e9coce que nous nous appr\u00eatons \u00e0 avoir dans un pays touch\u00e9 par une s\u00e9cheresse qui dure depuis presque un an, du \"choc p\u00e9trolier\" en cours - https://lnkd.in/eRyvuUFt - ou de l'inconnue majeure sur l'approvisionnement gazier et \u00e9lectrique pour l'hiver prochain, y \u00e9couter Aur\u00e9lien Barrau ou les sc\u00e9narisations de RTE, et bien sur et surtout y d\u00e9battre des propositions du Shift Project. \n\nEn tout d\u00e9but de quinquennat, ca sera le bon moment !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6942723819966971904,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6942723820772298752,urn:li:activity:6942723820772298752,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 33, "links": [] }, 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et les \u00e9missions li\u00e9es \u00e0 l'exp\u00e9dition et l'utilisation des produits vendus : https://lnkd.in/eBQmzvBJ\n\nCette d\u00e9claration est importante, parce qu'elle prend le contre pied complet de toutes les initiatives qui fleurissent actuellement partout dans le monde financier, soutenant implicitement que cette activit\u00e9 (la finance) va contraindre les entreprises \u00e0 se verdir en allouant l'argent \u00e0 ce qui est compatible avec un monde d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 (et le raisonnement peut s'\u00e9tendre \u00e0 d'autres nuisances). \n\nOn peut citer par exemple la Net Zero Banking Alliance (https://lnkd.in/e_rv-p28 ), initi\u00e9e par les Nations Unies, qui regroupe des banques \"qui se sont engag\u00e9es \u00e0 aligner leurs portefeuilles de pr\u00eats et d'investissements avec des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires nulles d'ici 2050.\". Les signataires repr\u00e9sentent 40% des pr\u00eats et investissements des banques dans le monde.\n\nOn peut aussi citer la Net Zero Asset Managers initiative (https://lnkd.in/eyWv_aR2 ) et dont les signataires (dont Blackrock :) ) repr\u00e9sentent plus de la moiti\u00e9 des actifs sous gestion. Ces signataires s'engagent \u00e0 \"soutenir l'objectif d'\u00e9missions nettes nulles d'ici \u00e0 2050, et \u00e0 soutenir des investissements align\u00e9s avec des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires nulles d'ici \u00e0 2050 ou avant\".\n\nBlackrock est donc d'accord avec l'objectif, mais ne veut pas du thermom\u00e8tre qui permet de dire si les investissements de Blackrock sont compatibles avec l'objectif. 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ouvert une enqu\u00eate sur DWS, une filiale de Deutsche Bank (et un gros gestionnaire d'actifs europ\u00e9en), pour des all\u00e9gations de greenwashing (https://lnkd.in/ew5M3-ys ).\n\nA l'\u00e9poque je m'\u00e9tais dit que c'\u00e9tait une manoeuvre subtile des USA pour p\u00e9naliser un concurrent, et que la ficelle pouvait \u00eatre grosse. Mais, cette fois-ci, c'est un des noms connus du syst\u00e8me financier am\u00e9ricain qui est dans le collimateur de la Securities and Exchange Commission : Goldman Sachs. L'accusation est en l'esp\u00e8ce que l'\u00e9tablissement se verdit \u00e0 bon compte sur des produits qui ne sont pas aussi verts que ce que la \"r\u00e9clame\" en dit.\n\nIl y a deux mani\u00e8res de se comporter en pareil cas pour le r\u00e9gulateur : juger du fond ou juger de la forme. La derni\u00e8re \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 consiste \u00e0 demander - et contr\u00f4ler - uniquement de la transparence et \u00e0 laisser le client juger de la pertinence. La premi\u00e8re consiste \u00e0 normaliser la m\u00e9thode qui est cens\u00e9e comporter le bon niveau de pertinence, et \u00e0 v\u00e9rifier ensuite l'application de la norme.\n\nLorsque le sujet est \u00e9mergent, c'est la premi\u00e8re mani\u00e8re de faire qui est la bonne : le r\u00e9gulateur a par construction toujours un train de retard sur la production de connaissances dans le secteur, et s'il normalise le fond trop vite il a toutes les chances de se tromper de bonne norme (sur laquelle il sera difficile de revenir rapidement) en confondant vitesse et pr\u00e9cipitation. \n\nMais une fois que le sujet est mature il ne faut pas se limiter \u00e0 une obligation de transparence. Il est alors l\u00e9gitime de construire une norme et de demander aux acteurs de s'y conformer. Mais le secteur priv\u00e9 garde toujours un avantage : comme c'est lui qui produit les connaissances (bonnes ou mauvaises), c'est lui qui sait le premier comment sugg\u00e9rer une obligation le concernant qui n'en sera pas vraiment une (j'ai v\u00e9cu cela dans les \u00e9changes entre secteur priv\u00e9 et puissance publique sur l'obligation de publication des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre d'une entreprise).\n\nIl ne suffit donc pas d'\u00eatre conforme pour \u00eatre pertinent. C'est \u00e9videmment utile quand le gendarme attrape un menteur. Mais la vraie bataille reste celle de la norme. Elle se passe g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement loin de la sc\u00e8ne m\u00e9diatique alors que c'est l\u00e0 que ca se joue..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6942150217106374657,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6942150217966211073,urn:li:activity:6942150217966211073,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 12, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6942150217966211073,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6942150217966211073,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8919893346748920572)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbone4.com \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Printemps 2022 : catastrophes en s\u00e9ries et menaces sur la production agricole | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/article-catastrophes-printemps22" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Printemps 2022 : catastrophes en s\u00e9ries et menaces sur la production agricole | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6941688961023016960,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ca n'est pas tr\u00e8s r\u00e9jouissant, mais il vaut quand m\u00eame mieux en \u00eatre conscient : le changement climatique a d\u00e9j\u00e0 commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 nous jouer quelques sales tours en ce qui concerne l'agriculture. Dans cet article, Carbone 4 vous propose un \u00e9clairage sur quelques \u00e9pisodes qui ont marqu\u00e9 le printemps 2022 dans le monde : vague de chaleur en Inde et au Pakistan, inondations au Canada, et bien sur s\u00e9cheresse en Europe. La liste aurait pu \u00eatre plus longue, et inclure des s\u00e9cheresses \"exceptionnelles\" ailleurs dans le monde : au Maroc (https://bit.ly/3xgr2ss ), au Br\u00e9sil (https://reut.rs/3xfZK5G ), au Proche Orient...\n\nEn France, le manque d'eau a d\u00e9j\u00e0 conduit \u00e0 des restrictions significatives d'usage pour un d\u00e9but juin dans notre pays : https://bit.ly/3mD4ddI Nous avons aussi eu un gel suivant un hiver et d\u00e9but de printemps trop doux (donc la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation a d\u00e9j\u00e0 bien d\u00e9bourr\u00e9 et les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts sont importants), des \u00e9pisodes de gr\u00eale \"exceptionnels\" r\u00e9cemment, etc... \n\nIl va malheureusement falloir faire avec... pire. Plus le climat va d\u00e9river, et plus ces \"mauvaises surprises\" vont devenir la norme... voire mieux que la norme.\n\nIl faut rappeler que le r\u00e9chauffement actuel a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 par 10.000 ans de tr\u00e8s grande stabilit\u00e9 climatique de la plan\u00e8te, ce qui a pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment permis la s\u00e9dentarisation et la multiplication de notre esp\u00e8ce. \n\nEn effet, cela, il aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 impossible, \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque de l'\u00e9nergie rare, de vivre tout le temps au m\u00eame endroit, de se nourrir des m\u00eames cultures (pas tr\u00e8s productives \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque) qui ne pouvaient pas \u00eatre transport\u00e9es en masse d'ailleurs, et d'avoir un habitat adapt\u00e9 en permanence aux ressources et conditions locales. Sans cette tr\u00e8s longue p\u00e9riode de stabilit\u00e9 climatique nous ne serions pas l\u00e0.\n\nLa d\u00e9rive actuelle poss\u00e8de une inertie consid\u00e9rable. Certaines de ses composantes vont se poursuivre des milliers d'ann\u00e9es apr\u00e8s arr\u00eat des \u00e9missions. C'est pour cela que, outre notre contribution \u00e0 une baisse des \u00e9missions (en Europe la baisse de l'usage des combustibles fossiles est de toute fa\u00e7on impos\u00e9e pour des raisons \"hors climat\" : https://bit.ly/3b0pdZz ), il est plus qu'urgent de commencer \u00e0 mettre des moyens massifs dans la reconfiguration de notre agriculture et de nos infrastructures (villes, b\u00e2timents, voies de communication, etc), pour leur permettre d'encaisser le moins mal possible l'adversit\u00e9 \u00e0 venir. \n\nComte tenu de l'ampleur de cette derni\u00e8re, il y a du boulot, et c'est autrement prioritaire que de faire joujou avec le bitcoin, la 5G, la voiture autonome, ou m\u00eame le retour des touristes a\u00e9roport\u00e9s chez nous. Si nous ne mangeons pas \u00e0 notre faim ou que nos infrastructures essentielles sont par terre, les plans radieux sur le reste ont peu de chances de se r\u00e9aliser.\n\nPr\u00e9ciser ce qui nous attend inexorablement - et les conclusions que l'on peut en tirer - ferait \u00e9videmment partie des 20h de formation sugg\u00e9r\u00e9es pour notre nouveau gouvernement. Mais pour le moment cette proposition est lettre morte !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6941688961023016960,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6941688962155466752,urn:li:activity:6941688962155466752,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 93, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6941688962155466752,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6941688962155466752,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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bifurcation des jeunes dipl\u00f4m\u00e9s, l\u2019\u00e9cole des Mines revoit son programme sous l\u2019angle climatique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6941321141974142976,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 541, "length": 7, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Vincent", "lastName": "Lafleche", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAJeVlcB-l99cQS5dumr0-fI4ZYe3usR0rk", "occupation": "Directeur Mines ParisTech", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:39736919", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAAJeVlcB-l99cQS5dumr0-fI4ZYe3usR0rk", "publicIdentifier": "vincent-lafleche-a9b38311", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1517753533896?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=NjWmU83ouDrEphlN3sVk3DWR-7Aaf3YAzqr3gqK-9Jw", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1517753533896?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=4j-EPq_S3DzM0YH1DYPxO-XfhdX9RsjUnwo2tzct__8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1517753533896?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=P8azWpK8fuvDi_J0UhoWIEAdzdZibOWGn2LSmaOT0g0", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1517753533896?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=W3QkU_4RvX1yj7zHrbqqR4iWSuOfA0PwaLVC4vdv-aU", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C5603AQHa8GrQhk68DQ/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "L7Rz1yg2Rd2KwtZUVRXDSw==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Fond\u00e9e en 1783, l'Ecole des mines de Paris est une des plus vieilles \u00e9coles d'ing\u00e9nieurs de France. Apr\u00e8s avoir contribu\u00e9 pendant 2 si\u00e8cles au d\u00e9veloppement de l'industrie fran\u00e7aise dans le monde infini, elle est maintenant en train de s'illustrer en devenant l'\u00e9cole la plus en pointe dans l'adaptation des formations d'ing\u00e9nieur au monde fini. Les \u00e9l\u00e8ves y d\u00e9marrent d\u00e9sormais leur scolarit\u00e9 par pr\u00e8s de 100 heures de cours qui d\u00e9crivent les limites plan\u00e9taires. Aucune autre \u00e9cole ne fait cela \u00e0 ma connaissance, ni m\u00eame la moiti\u00e9 (bravo Vincent donc !). \n\nLes Mines favorisent aussi - \u00e0 raison - les approches pluridisciplinaires. A mon modeste niveau j'ai d\u00e9j\u00e0 encadr\u00e9 des \u00e9l\u00e8ves ing\u00e9nieurs du Corps qui avaient des projets en commun avec des \u00e9narques, chose dont je n'ai entendu parler nulle par ailleurs.\n\nEn modifiant aux Mines l'enseignement comme cela a \u00e9t\u00e9 fait, il ne s'agit pas seulement de \"r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 l'aspiration des \u00e9l\u00e8ves\", ou plut\u00f4t cette derni\u00e8re proc\u00e8de d'un \u00e9l\u00e9ment \u00e9vident : il est plus que pertinent d'adapter l'enseignement au monde tel qu'il sera, et non au monde tel que nous aimerions qu'il soit.\n\nLe monde tel qu'il sera est fini et tr\u00e8s tr\u00e8s peupl\u00e9. Il sera de plus en plus difficile d'y avoir ce que l'on veut comme ressources min\u00e9rales, m\u00e9talliques, fossiles, vivantes, agricoles, sans parler du reste.\n\nFace \u00e0 ce constat, quelle a \u00e9t\u00e9 l'orientation choisie par nombre d'\u00e9tablissements de premier plan, il est vrai fortement incit\u00e9s par l'Etat ? Se regrouper sur le plateau de Saclay pour monter dans le classement de Shangha\u00ef. La belle affaire ! Ce n'est pas ce classement qui nous permettra de nous nourrir avec moins de pluie ou de nous d\u00e9placer avec moins de p\u00e9trole. Ce n'est pas ce classement qui permettra d'\u00e9viter les migrations et de pr\u00e9server la paix. \n\nFace au probl\u00e8me que nous avons devant nous, la voie \u00e0 choisir est simple : il faut attirer les meilleures cervelles pour leur demander de s'attaquer au plus monstrueux probl\u00e8me d'optimisation sous contrainte que nous ayons sur les bras, \u00e0 savoir forger un avenir d\u00e9sirable avec des ressources physiques et vivantes en d\u00e9clin. Ca sera autrement plus difficile que de mettre au point la 6G ou l'hyperloop...\n\nLa France a une longue tradition d'excellence de ses ing\u00e9nieurs. Profitons en pour devenir les meilleurs dans l'organisation de la d\u00e9carbonation. Ce sera utile pour nous puisque de toute fa\u00e7on les combustibles fossiles import\u00e9s en Europe seront de plus en plus contraints. Ce sera utile pour nous parce que de toute fa\u00e7on le climat d\u00e9rivera de plus en plus. Ce sera utile pour nous parce que la mondialisation et la facilit\u00e9 d'acc\u00e8s aux ressources m\u00e9talliques vont baisser de toute fa\u00e7on. Et ca sera exportable parce que tout le monde va finir par avoir le m\u00eame probl\u00e8me. Agir en ce sens n'est pas se contraindre ou se tirer une balle dans le pied, c'est faire la course en t\u00eate. Avis \u00e0 toutes les autres \u00e9coles ! (dont \"la mienne\", l'X, bien trop timide sur ce plan l\u00e0...)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6941321141974142976,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6941321143370850304,urn:li:activity:6941321143370850304,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 445, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6941321143370850304,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6941321143370850304,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8381145828126997497)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "sfen.org" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Elan mondial pour le nucl\u00e9aire - Sfen by sfen.org", "actionTarget": "https://www.sfen.org/rgn/elan-mondial-pour-le-nucleaire" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Elan mondial pour le nucl\u00e9aire - Sfen" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6940921470436966400,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le nucl\u00e9aire est-il une \u00e9nergie sur le d\u00e9clin dans le monde ? La SFEN vous propose une infographie pas mal faite pour visualiser, pays par pays, le parc en service, les r\u00e9acteurs en construction et ceux en projet. Une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 saute aux yeux : la partie se joue en ce moment \u00e0 l'est de l'Europe.\n\nEn effet, les pays qui ont - et de loin - le plus de r\u00e9acteurs en construction sont la Chine, l'Inde, la Russie et la Cor\u00e9e du Sud. \n\nPour les r\u00e9acteurs en projet, c'est l'Inde qui arrive en t\u00eate, mais \"un projet\" peut durer longtemps avant de devenir une construction ! Les deux pays ayant le plus d'ambitions affich\u00e9es sont \u00e0 nouveau deux pays d'Asie (outre l'Inde il y a la Chine). Au niveau des projets on voit arriver des pays europ\u00e9ens (Royaume-Uni, Pologne, France, Pays-Bas). \n\nDans notre pays, m\u00eame si je pense le plus grand bien de ce mode de production, il ne faut rien attendre du nouveau nucl\u00e9aire avant au moins 10 ans. La dur\u00e9e moyenne de construction pour les r\u00e9acteurs en service dans le monde en 2016 avait \u00e9t\u00e9 d'un peu plus de 7 ans, les plus rapides \u00e0 construire n'ayant pris que 3 ans (https://bit.ly/3xCZH5d ).\n\nMais nous avons \u00e0 la fois perdu la main, perdu une partie des comp\u00e9tences et fournisseurs, ajout\u00e9 des proc\u00e9dures pr\u00e9alables et des r\u00e8gles de s\u00fbret\u00e9 qui ralentissent de toute fa\u00e7on la mise \u00e0 disposition de nouvelles unit\u00e9s.\n\nDans le monde, le nucl\u00e9aire faisait 10% de la production \u00e9lectrique en 2020, avec l'hydro \u00e0 16%, l'\u00e9olien \u00e0 6% et le solaire \u00e0 3% (incidemment les personnes qui expliquent que le nucl\u00e9aire part de trop bas pour jouer un r\u00f4le significatif doivent appliquer le m\u00eame raisonnement \u00e0 l'\u00e9olien et au solaire !).\n\nLe rythme actuel de son d\u00e9veloppement n'est clairement pas au niveau si l'on veut que cette \u00e9nergie, qui est la seule d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e, compacte et pilotable que nous ayons (\u00e9olien et solaire ne sont ni compacts - ils demandent beaucoup de mat\u00e9riaux et beaucoup d'espace - ni pilotables ; l'hydro est pilotable mais pas compacte - il faut de grands lacs de barrage pour avoir de grandes productions) joue un r\u00f4le significatif dans le monde pour chasser une large partie des 2200 GW de centrales \u00e0 charbon actuellement en service sur la plan\u00e8te, et qu'il faudrait ferrailler en totalit\u00e9 d'ici \u00e0 2050.\n\nBeaucoup de gens sont r\u00e9ticents \u00e0 l'id\u00e9e d'acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer sur cette \u00e9nergie en supprimant des contraintes \u00e0 son d\u00e9veloppement. Ca serait trop risqu\u00e9 ! Il faut malheureusement se rappeler qu'un avenir sans risques est d\u00e9sormais une illusion. La seule chose que nous puissions encore faire est d'arbitrer entre risques. Mais se d\u00e9barrasser de tous \u00e0 la fois n'est pas - plus - possible. \n\n\"Pas assez de plus de nucl\u00e9aire\" ca sera soit plus de fossiles soit moins d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Faire un syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique complet, produisant autant ou plus qu'aujourd'hui, avec essentiellement du solaire et de l'\u00e9olien, demande trop de mat\u00e9riaux et est trop complexe pour advenir dans un monde d\u00e9mondialis\u00e9. Que ce soit un objectif politique n'y change rien..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6940921470436966400,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6940921471133216769,urn:li:activity:6940921471133216769,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 51, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6940921471133216769,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6940921471133216769,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6940554984753135616,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La biomasse, c'est \u00e0 dire tout ce qui pousse, tout le monde en veut. Les constructeurs veulent du bois pour remplacer le b\u00e9ton. Les humains - plus nombreux - veulent de quoi manger. Les chimistes veulent de la mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re pour remplacer le p\u00e9trole et le gaz fossiles (toutes les fibres synth\u00e9tiques, tous les lubrifiants, tous les plastiques, et plus largement toute la chimie organique vient du p\u00e9trole et du gaz). Les producteurs de v\u00eatements veulent du coton, ou du lin. \n\nCe n'est pas fini : les producteurs de mat\u00e9riaux de construction veulent de la paille ou du chanvre pour \u00e9viter de fabriquer de la laine de verre. Les d\u00e9fenseurs de la biodiversit\u00e9 veulent que l'on laisse la nature tranquille au lieu de convertir les surfaces \"sauvages\" en surfaces cultiv\u00e9es (en cultures annuelles ou p\u00e9rennes, peu importe). Et... les constructeurs d'engins de transport (voitures ou avions) veulent des agrocarburants qui sont tous issus de v\u00e9g\u00e9taux qui ont bien du pousser quelque part.\n\nMais... la terre n'a pas augment\u00e9 de diam\u00e8tre alors que ces envies de recourir \u00e0 des usages du sol concurrents les uns des autres se sont multipli\u00e9es. Question : y aura-t-il de la place pour tout le monde ? Un rapide calcul d'ordre de grandeur montre que la r\u00e9ponse est non. Les agrocarburants fournissent aujourd'hui 4 millions de barils par jour sur une plan\u00e8te qui en consomme un peu moins de 100 de produits p\u00e9troliers (rien que le secteur a\u00e9rien consomme pr\u00e8s de 10% de cet ensemble).\n\nLa plan\u00e8te produit 4 milliards de tonnes de ciment (100% construction et infrastructures) et 2 milliards de tonnes d'acier (environ 50% construction et infras) par an. La r\u00e9colte de bois est actuellement de 2 milliards de m3 (https://lnkd.in/e8Qshkj4 ) soit un peu moins de 2 milliards de tonnes. \n\nSans m\u00eame parler des autres usages (alimentaire, biodiversit\u00e9, mat\u00e9riaux hors bois), y a-t-il assez de surface disponible pour mettre des \"carburants verts\" partout et de la construction bois partout ?\n\nLa r\u00e9ponse est non. Mais la Commission ne fait pas ce genre de calcul avant de d\u00e9cider de ses politiques pour l'avenir, qui continuent \u00e0 pr\u00e9supposer que le monde est infini. R\u00e9sultat : nous allons perdre notre temps - puisque nous n'irons pas au bout du \"plan\", qui est du type \"croissance verte\" - et ne pas r\u00e9gler le probl\u00e8me (qui se r\u00e8glera donc tout seul \u00e0 nos d\u00e9pends puisque le monde est fini).\n\nDans le domaine a\u00e9rien la bonne r\u00e9ponse est d\u00e9bord de faire baisser le trafic (https://lnkd.in/d3h_4QA ). Comme 75% de ce dernier est li\u00e9 au fait de changer d'air (tourisme et loisirs) on devrait y arriver moins difficilement que dans d'autres secteurs. Inutile de r\u00eaver \u00e0 un transport a\u00e9rien de masse \"propre\". Nous y arriverions \u00e0 la rigueur en diminuant l'offre alimentaire ou en augmentant la d\u00e9forestation ailleurs dans le monde. Je ne sais pas si c'est tr\u00e8s \"propre\"...." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6940554984753135616,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6940554985877204993,urn:li:activity:6940554985877204993,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 269, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6940554985877204993,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6940554985877204993,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7451005657666174190)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 13 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Voyage : mon tour de France en TER en 10 jours by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/weekend/voyages/mon-tour-de-france-en-ter-en-10-jours-1410855" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Voyage : mon tour de France en TER en 10 jours" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6940351123341893634,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Eloge de la lenteur : dans le dernier num\u00e9ro des Echos week-end, un article relate un tour de France en \"train pas \u00e0 grande vitesse\", le but du jeu n'\u00e9tant plus de rallier un point A \u00e0 un point B le plus vite possible. Le train cesse d'\u00eatre un endroit o\u00f9 l'on doit rester le moins longtemps possible : y \u00eatre est un but en soi.\n\nCela fait longtemps que nos amis helv\u00e8tes ont des \"trains touristiques\", qui permettent aux occupants de passer par des paysages grandioses, ou de manger dans un wagon restaurant qui m\u00eale le cadre \u00e0 l'alimentation.\n\nUne des id\u00e9es importantes sous-jacente \u00e0 cet article est qu'il sugg\u00e8re que, en train, le temps de d\u00e9placement n'est pas n\u00e9cessairement du temps de perdu. Dans les trains actuels,on peut presque tout faire comme dans un bureau ou chez soi : dormir, lire, regarder un film, travailler sur un ordinateur, manger, discuter... \n\nCela est tellement vrai qu'il y a m\u00eame une entreprise (de type emploi de bureau) o\u00f9 il a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9cid\u00e9 que, pour les gens qui venaient au travail en TGV (avec une place assise garantie donc), la journ\u00e9e de travail d\u00e9marrait non pas \u00e0 l'arriv\u00e9e au bureau mais au d\u00e9part de la gare. \n\nMalgr\u00e9 l'exemple ci-dessus, le fait que le temps en train ne soit pas n\u00e9cessairement du \"temps perdu\" n'existe toujours pas dans l'essentiel de nos conventions. Dans la comparaison entre route et train, le cout socio-\u00e9conomique de chaque mode continue \u00e0 \u00eatre calcul\u00e9 en consid\u00e9rant que le temps pass\u00e9 \u00e0 se d\u00e9placer est \"perdu\" \u00e0 l'identique quel que soit le mode. Or c'est \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence devenu inexact d\u00e8s lors que l'on a une place assise et le moyen de s'occuper en train (dans une certaine mesure c'est aussi vrai pour l'autocar s'il est suffisamment confortable).\n\nUne infrastructure routi\u00e8re qui permet de gagner un peu de temps en voiture sera alors consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme plus \"utile\" qu'une infrastructure qui permet de se rabattre sur du train dans un temps de transport plus long... mais qui n'est plus du temps de perdu. \n\nModifier cette r\u00e8gle n'est probablement pas compl\u00e8tement anecdotique : les d\u00e9cisions ne sont pas seulement \"politiques\" : \u00e0 un moment elles sont aussi prises au nom d'une rationalit\u00e9 implicite contenue dans les outils et m\u00e9thodes manipul\u00e9s." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6940351123341893634,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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C'est simple : son titre l'indique, non ? Le ministre de l'\u00e9conomie s'occupe d'\u00e9conomie et la ministre de la sant\u00e9 de sant\u00e9. En fait, en plus de son titre chaque ministre re\u00e7oit aussi - et surtout - un d\u00e9cret pr\u00e9sidentiel qui pr\u00e9cise ses objectifs et moyens - et donc en creux ceux qu'il ou elle n'a pas.\n\nUn cabinet d'avocats a eu la bonne id\u00e9e de rassembler tous ces d\u00e9crets dits d'attribution au m\u00eame endroit : https://bit.ly/3H06hG3 Question : les ministres ont-ils des feuilles de route en accord avec l'objectif global de planification \u00e9cologique ? Comme d'habitude, le Diable est dans les d\u00e9tails.\n\nBruno Le Maire (\u00e9conomie) doit d'abord favoriser la croissance (mentionn\u00e9e \u00e0 plusieurs reprises), ce qui suppose qu'elle ne d\u00e9pend que de lui (ca se discute), et que cet objectif n'est pas antagoniste avec la d\u00e9carbonation (ca se discute aussi : https://bit.ly/3tiok4z ).\n\nIl ne lui est pas demand\u00e9 d'avoir un plan pour une \u00e9conomie sans croissance (cette \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 est tout sauf impossible comme l'actualit\u00e9 r\u00e9cente l'a montr\u00e9). Il ne lui est pas plus demand\u00e9 de concevoir une \u00e9conomie en accord avec les limites plan\u00e9taires, les mots \"climat\" ou \"ressources\" n'apparaissant pas dans sa feuille de route. Il ne doit pas \"verdir\" la fiscalit\u00e9.\n\nAgn\u00e8s Pannier-Runacher (\u00e9nergie), doit s'occuper de plein de sujets techniques (ENR, nucl\u00e9aire, hydrog\u00e8ne, bornes de recharge, r\u00e9novation des b\u00e2timents), et de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement (bonjour Poutine !), mais pas de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nAm\u00e9lie de Montchalin (environnement et territoires), n'a pas pour objectif premier d'augmenter la r\u00e9silience ou la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 au niveau local. Elle s'occupe certes d'adaptation, mais c'est pour \"mettre en oeuvre la politique du gouvernement\" (qui de par le pass\u00e9 \u00e9tait indigente).\n\nElle doit par contre \"anticiper et accompagner les mutations \u00e9conomiques et sociales propres \u00e0 chaque territoire dans l'espace europ\u00e9en\". Bref les conventions humaines (l'espace europ\u00e9en) passent avant la physique (les limites plan\u00e9taires).\n\nMarc Fesneau (agriculture), poss\u00e8de pour le coup une feuille de route qui parle de climat, d'adaptation, ou de stockage de carbone dans les sols. Mais les mots \"phytosanitaires\" ou \"pesticides\" n'y figurent pas, pas plus que \"r\u00e9silience\" (ce qui est diff\u00e9rent de \"adaptation\" et inclut notamment la baisse subie des combustibles fossiles).\n\nOlivier Dussopt (emploi), s'occupe des retraites (avec une \u00e9conomie en croissance bien s\u00fbr !) mais pas des mutations \u00e0 venir dans le cadre de la d\u00e9carbonation, volontaire ou subie, alors que les effets sur l'emploi seront massifs.\n\nPap Ndiaye (Education Nationale), doit oeuvrer \"en faveur du d\u00e9veloppement et de la diffusion des usages du num\u00e9rique (...)\", mais n'a pas pour mandat d'aligner les contenus enseign\u00e9s avec le monde fini. Les \u00e9crans \u00e0 l'\u00e9cole c'est plus important que le climat !\n\nBref ces d\u00e9crets sont largement \"\u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la plaque\" si l'objectif est la planification \u00e9cologique. 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6939270929596207104,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Quand j'\u00e9tais jeune (si si cela a exist\u00e9 un jour) il y avait une claire s\u00e9paration des r\u00f4les dans le monde politique : les d\u00e9put\u00e9s se faisaient \u00e9lire comme d\u00e9put\u00e9s, et ne devenaient pas ministres, et les ministres \u00e9taient nomm\u00e9s comme ministres, et ne cherchaient pas \u00e0 se faire \u00e9lire comme d\u00e9put\u00e9s. \n\nC'est - de m\u00e9moire - Sarkozy qui a instaur\u00e9 le premier cette r\u00e8gle, dont je ne comprends pas le sens, qui veut qu'un ministre commence par se faire \u00e9lire comme d\u00e9put\u00e9... pour ne pas l'\u00eatre. Les ministres candidat(e)s demandent donc aux \u00e9lecteurs de voter pour eux pour qu'ils et elles ne soient pas d\u00e9put\u00e9(e) ! \n\nC'est du reste au nom de cette logique incompr\u00e9hensible que Jupp\u00e9, pourtant tr\u00e8s populaire \u00e0 Bordeaux, n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9lu comme \"non d\u00e9put\u00e9\" de sa ville lors des l\u00e9gislatives de 2007, et a fait un mandat d'un mois comme ministre d'Etat de l'environnement, alors que tout le monde voyait sa prise de fonction plut\u00f4t d'un bon oeil. Ses \u00e9lecteurs, qui pourtant l'aimaient bien, ont du penser qu'il se fichait gentiment d'eux quand il a demand\u00e9 leurs suffrages... pour ne pas aller au Palais Bourbon.\n\nSi nous allons plus loin, il n'est dit nulle part dans la constitution fran\u00e7aise que chaque ministre devra \u00eatre \"valid\u00e9(e)\" par une circonscription particuli\u00e8re. Dans notre constitution l'ensemble de l'Assembl\u00e9e d\u00e9finit une majorit\u00e9 et derri\u00e8re le premier ministre qui en \u00e9mane d\u00e9cide qui mettra ce programme en oeuvre, en choisissant pour cela des personnes non \u00e9lues.\n\nCes personnes doit surtout avoir deux qualit\u00e9s : la loyaut\u00e9 (toujours pr\u00e9sente au moins au d\u00e9but) et la comp\u00e9tence (pas toujours pr\u00e9sente h\u00e9las...). Un ministre n'est que l'ex\u00e9cutant d'un programme de gouvernement qui lui d\u00e9pend... de l'assembl\u00e9e dans son ensemble.\n\nSi on fait comme les anglais, qui nomment comme ministre des politiques d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9lus au parlement, alors il serait sage de ne pas avoir de gouvernement du tout en attendant le r\u00e9sultat des l\u00e9gislatives. Le pays peut tr\u00e8s bien se passer de gouvernement pendant 2 mois :), ou conserver l'ancien gouvernement dans l'attente des l\u00e9gislatives.\n\nPour la ministre de la transition \u00e9cologique, qui va donc devoir aller se faire \"\u00e9lire pour ne pas \u00eatre \u00e9lue\" comme tous les autres, je pr\u00e9f\u00e8rerais de tr\u00e8s loin que son maintien ou pas au gouvernement d\u00e9pende d'un test de connaissances sur le sujet qu'elle a \u00e0 traiter, plut\u00f4t que du vote des \u00e9lecteurs dans une circonscription particuli\u00e8re." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6939270929596207104,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6939270930443452416,urn:li:activity:6939270930443452416,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 190, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Il faut du p\u00e9trole pour alimenter les camions et bateaux permettant de trimballer des milliards de tonnes de mati\u00e8res ou marchandises d'un bout \u00e0 l'autre de la plan\u00e8te. Il faut du charbon pour alimenter les hauts fourneaux et les centrales \u00e9lectriques qui ont permis de fabriquer en masse ici ce qui sera consomm\u00e9 loin de l\u00e0. Il faut du gaz pour faire une partie de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et de la chaleur industrielle qui participent de ce syst\u00e8me. \n\nDu coup, une cons\u00e9quence logique de la d\u00e9carbonation sera la... d\u00e9mondialisation. La flotte mondiale comporte 100.000 bateaux de plus de 100 tonnes de port (https://bit.ly/3ziS99g ), et ce n'est pas avec juste des bateaux \u00e0 voile ou \u00e0 rames que nous allons conserver la m\u00eame capacit\u00e9 de transport (2,1 milliard de tonnes de port).\n\nDans une \u00e9conomie d\u00e9mondialis\u00e9e, les pays qui n'ont pas de mines ne fabriquent ni batteries, ni panneaux solaires, ni voitures \u00e9lectriques. Et on le voit \u00e0 l'exp\u00e9rience grandeur nature de l\u00e9g\u00e8re d\u00e9mondialisation que le covid puis l'Ukraine nous offre en ce moment.\n\nComme l'explique cet article des Echos, alors m\u00eame que la flotte mondiale de voitures \u00e9lectriques atteint p\u00e9niblement un peu moins de 2% du total des voitures en circulation, les fabricants font d\u00e9j\u00e0 face \u00e0 des probl\u00e8mes de production \u00e0 cause de composants \u00e9lectroniques qui ne sont produits que dans certaines parties du monde. Ils se demandent d\u00e9j\u00e0 si il n'y aura pas des probl\u00e8mes de fourniture de m\u00e9taux critiques \u00e0 cause de mines situ\u00e9es \"loin de l'usine\".\n\nLes fabricants de panneaux solaires et d'\u00e9oliennes sont eux aussi mondialis\u00e9s. 95% des panneaux viennent d\u00e9sormais de Chine (donc ils ont notamment besoin de porte-conteneurs), et pour l'\u00e9olien ce pays commence aussi \u00e0 tailler de plus en plus de croupi\u00e8res aux fabricants europ\u00e9ens. Et, comme pour les voitures, la petite d\u00e9mondialisation r\u00e9cente a invers\u00e9 la baisse de cout des ENR modernes, qui augmentent depuis 2 ans : https://bit.ly/3MlQcLX\n\nAvec une \u00e9conomie redevenant physiquement \"locale\", comment installer en France des centaines de milliers d'\u00e9oliennes et de panneaux alors que nous n'avons plus de mine de fer, ni de cuivre, ni de nickel, ni de charbon m\u00e9tallurgique ?\n\nIl s'av\u00e8re donc que pour g\u00e9rer la d\u00e9carbonation par des voies essentiellement \"technologiques\" nous avons besoin de la mondialisation... qui est carbon\u00e9e. Le fait de prendre les probl\u00e8mes avant tout sous l'angle \u00e9conomique ne permet pas de voir cette incoh\u00e9rence. Une autre mani\u00e8re de dire la m\u00eame chose est que les baisses de cout et les hausses de volume obtenues dans une \u00e9conomie mondialis\u00e9e ne sont pas du tout garanties dans une \u00e9conomie d\u00e9mondialis\u00e9e, loin s'en faut." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6939150038560346113,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6939150039390822400,urn:li:activity:6939150039390822400,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 114, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6939150039390822400,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6939150039390822400,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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c\u00e9r\u00e9ales \u00e9lev\u00e9, une hausse amplifi\u00e9e par le climat et l'\u00e9nergie" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6938874442659864576,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Elle a fait un peu moins de couverture m\u00e9diatique r\u00e9cemment que le divorce de Johnny Depp, mais l'inflation alimentaire continue son petit bonhomme de chemin. L'index des prix publi\u00e9 par la FAO montre que ces derniers sont au plus haut depuis... 1961 en monnaie constante : https://lnkd.in/eVYxYPQy\n\nCertes les revenus ont augment\u00e9 entre-temps, mais il n'emp\u00eache que sur les ann\u00e9es qui viennent de s'\u00e9couler les prix de l'alimentation ont augment\u00e9 bien plus vite : ils ont pris 80% depuis le d\u00e9but 2019. \n\nUne partie de cette hausse est due \u00e0 la hausse des prix de l'\u00e9nergie. Le gaz sert en effet \u00e0 fabriquer les engrais azot\u00e9s, et le p\u00e9trole \u00e0 transporter les denr\u00e9es. La hausse de ce dernier (https://lnkd.in/eRyvuUFt ) a \u00e9t\u00e9 un peu amplifi\u00e9e par la guerre en Ukraine, mais le mouvement date d'avant (fin 2020), en lien direct avec le covid qui a conduit \u00e0 de moindres investissements dans le secteur p\u00e9trolier.\n\nLe gaz a aussi commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 augmenter - dans le sillage du p\u00e9trole - en 2020, et la guerre en Ukraine a \"simplement\" acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 le mouvement. \n\nUne autre partie de la hausse du prix de la nourriture est bien sur due \u00e0 l'absence d'une partie du bl\u00e9 ukrainien (5\u00e8 exportateur mondial en temps normal) et \u00e0 la logistique compliqu\u00e9e pour le bl\u00e9 russe (1er exportateur mondial) \u00e0 l'export. L'absence du bl\u00e9 ukrainien va se prolonger puisque ce pays ne peut pas mener une activit\u00e9 agricole normale actuellement \u00e0 cause du conflit. \n\nEnfin la s\u00e9cheresse qui augmente de mani\u00e8re chronique un peu partout dans le monde impacte n\u00e9gativement les r\u00e9coltes. 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"numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'arenh - acc\u00e8s r\u00e9gul\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire historique - est un enfant de la \"lib\u00e9ralisation\" de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d\u00e9cid\u00e9e par l'Union europ\u00e9enne qui oblige EDF \u00e0 vendre \u00e0 perte une partie de son \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \"historique\" \u00e0 des \"concurrents\", qui en fait sont des courtiers qui lui prennent de la rente sans aucun apport \u00e0 la collectivit\u00e9.\n\nLa vente \u00e0 perte est interdite par la loi quand il s'agit de pommes. Mais quand il s'agit d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, elle est obligatoire pour EDF. Comprenne qui pourra.\n\nCette obligation porte d\u00e9sormais sur un tiers de la production d'EDF (elle ne diminue pas quand la production d'EDF diminue). Mieux : elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 rehauss\u00e9e de 20% juste avant l'\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle - comme par hasard - et va couter de l'ordre de 8 milliards \u00e0 EDF, \u00e0 qui on va par ailleurs demander d'investir des dizaines de milliards dans le grand car\u00e9nage et autant dans du nouveau nucl\u00e9aire. Comprenne qui pourra.\n\nEt comme ca n'est pas encore assez, et que surtout il est plus important de sauver les \"concurrents\" - des fois que le pays perde quelques courtiers - que l'exploitant des centrales qui permettent aux courtiers d'exister, le r\u00e9gulateur de l'\u00e9nergie propose d'augmenter encore le fardeau. Bref la concurrence c'est plus important que la physique !\n\nIl est \u00e9vident que la proposition de Carenco s'inscrit dans un monde o\u00f9 la situation va \"revenir \u00e0 la normale\". Car si le MWh \u00e9lectrique doit couter 250 euros pour les 20 ans qui viennent le plus urgent n'est peut-\u00eatre pas de \"sauver les concurrents d'EDF\". Et si l'on veut aider nos industriels il va peut-\u00eatre falloir se faire \u00e0 l'id\u00e9e que le syst\u00e8me de prix encadr\u00e9s cal\u00e9s sur les couts moyens de production n'\u00e9tait pas si idiot que cela... (ce qui suppose un bras de fer avec la Commission).\n\nCa sera un test int\u00e9ressant de voir si Macron 2 pr\u00e9sident r\u00e9it\u00e8rera la politique de Macron 1 candidat qui consiste \u00e0 faire les poches d'EDF (c'est cela l'augmentation de l'arenh) en r\u00e9action \"\u00e0 chaud\" \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9 des prix de l'\u00e9nergie. Si oui, ca n'augure pas tr\u00e8s bien d'une politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en phase avec l'\u00e9poque." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6938181969780330496,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6938181970648571905,urn:li:activity:6938181970648571905,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 188, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6938181970648571905,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6938181970648571905,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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On peut y apprend qu'il s'est vendu 6,6 millions de voitures \u00e0 \u00e9lectrons en 2021 (presque 10% des ventes), que le parc se monte \u00e0 16,5 millions (pour 1,2 milliard de v\u00e9hicules thermiques), et que pour les camions \u00e9lectriques c'est seulement 0,3% des ventes de poids lourds qu'il y a eu en 2021.\n\nEn 2030, 20% des ventes de voitures seraient \u00e9lectriques. C'est inf\u00e9rieur d'un facteur 3 \u00e0 ce qui serait n\u00e9cessaire pour un sc\u00e9nario \"accord de Paris\" (qui demanderait par ailleurs une fourniture en lithium multipli\u00e9e par un facteur 6).\n\nUn pays est au centre du jeu : la Chine. La moiti\u00e9 des ventes de 2021 ont eu lieu dans ce pays, qui par ailleurs commercialise des v\u00e9hicules en moyenne plus petits que pour le monde dans son ensemble. En effet, \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle plan\u00e9taire, la moiti\u00e9 des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques disponibles sont des SUV, ce qui, note l'AIE, cr\u00e9e une pression suppl\u00e9mentaire sur la disponibilit\u00e9 des m\u00e9taux n\u00e9cessaires pour faire des batteries. \n\nDe fait, si on fabrique des batteries de 100 kWh plut\u00f4t que de 50 (ou m\u00eame de 0,5 pour les v\u00e9los !), \u00e0 capacit\u00e9 de production donn\u00e9e on peut \u00e9lectrifier moins de v\u00e9hicules neufs. Le fait que ces v\u00e9hicules soient chers, que la client\u00e8le solvable soit riche, que les constructeurs font de plus grosses marges sur les gros v\u00e9hicules, et que la voiture reste un objet de statut social pousse \u00e0 fabriquer des \"tanks \u00e9lectriques\", ce qui est contre-productif pour d\u00e9carboner rapidement la mobilit\u00e9.\n\nLa Chine va concentrer, d'ici \u00e0 2030, 70% de la capacit\u00e9 mondiale de production de batteries. Chez nous, passer du p\u00e9trole \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ne permet donc pas \"l'autonomie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\". Alors que pour le p\u00e9trole nous sommes un peu plus \"multi-d\u00e9pendants\" (la Russie repr\u00e9sente 30% de nos importations), pour son \"substitut\" on deviendrait tr\u00e8s d\u00e9pendants d'un seul pays !\n\nQuand on sait que ce m\u00eame pays concentre aujourd'hui 95% de la fabrication des panneaux solaires (et que pour l'\u00e9olien nous n'avons pas non plus de capacit\u00e9s de production \u00e0 la hauteur de notre \u00e9quipement, loin s'en faut), on voit bien que le combo \"voiture \u00e9lectrique + ENR\" ne nous met pas vraiment sur la voie de l'ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique accrue...\n\nL'AIE note aussi que l'augmentation de production \u00e9lectrique bas carbone devra s'acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer pour que nous tout cela flotte. Ce n'est pas un hasard si dans le m\u00eame temps la Chine d\u00e9ploie massivement ces modes (entre autres choses elle a pr\u00e9vu de rajouter 8 GW de nucl\u00e9aire par an - soit 6 \u00e0 8 r\u00e9acteurs - entre 2025 et 2035 : https://bit.ly/3zdRbuS ). \n\nD'ici \u00e0 2030 il ne devrait pas y avoir de probl\u00e8me de fourniture \u00e9lectrique, dit l'AIE. Cette \"pr\u00e9vision\" \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle globale sera peut-\u00eatre plus difficile \u00e0 tenir en Europe sans gaz russe, et avec moins de nucl\u00e9aire... et ca serait ballot que la voiture \u00e9lectrique contribue \u00e0 relancer le charbon." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6938020009830957056,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6938020011026341888,urn:li:activity:6938020011026341888,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 83, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6938020011026341888,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6938020011026341888,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": 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"You'll no longer see this post in your feed." }, "undoable": true } }, "text": "Report post", "confirmationAction": { "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Thank you for your report" }, "description": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "We appreciate you letting us know" }, "undoable": false } } ], "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_updateV2Actions:(urn:li:activity:6937799437368872960,MEMBER_SHARES,EMPTY,-,-)", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_updateActions:(urn:li:activity:6937799437368872960,MEMBER_SHARES,EMPTY,urn:li:reason:-,urn:li:adCreative:-)" }, "actionTriggerEnabled": false, "detailPageType": "FEED_DETAIL", "shareAudience": "PUBLIC", "shareUrn": "urn:li:share:6937799436832022528", "excludedFromSeen": false, "trackingData": { "requestId": "9758f071-d31e-4f1d-a851-4121223e63a1", "trackingId": "kYMBnfZ9lXZx43CGazDWQg==" } }, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_updateV2:(urn:li:activity:6937799437368872960,MEMBER_SHARES,EMPTY,DEFAULT,false)", "content": { "com.linkedin.voyager.feed.render.ArticleComponent": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "urn": "urn:li:article:8592250159028224190", "swapTitleAndSubtitle": false, "largeImage": { "accessibilityTextSourceType": "USER", "attributes": [ { "useCropping": false, "sourceType": "VECTOR", "vectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 610, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800/0/1676557380593?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=uD66cwcLocgR9sDBh-3fVl_cIynLwoOFPKh-6TrUhAk", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 377 }, { "width": 610, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "1280_800/0/1676557380593?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=GMNoaAAd3yDCUaXOgww5p-xdAznerrECJY2Hr_F-8Vg", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 377 }, { "width": 160, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "160/0/1676557380594?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=dF_G554RxR__mlIEQqmIlVfAqBc842Ej4CCW7TvUD64", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 98 }, { "width": 480, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "480/0/1676557380594?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=OsD-DGBKsNjGOgAhg3ZwTf5g89Dv7PSEyYBfXEOGEVA", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 296 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/sync/D4E27AQEs31hKQb6ryg/articleshare-shrink_" }, "displayAspectRatio": 0.6180327868852459 } ], "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "accessibilityText": "NOAA: Above average hurricane season in 2022" }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8592250159028224190)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8592250159028224190)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "public.wmo.int \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: NOAA forecasts another above average hurricane season by public.wmo.int", "actionTarget": "https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/noaa-forecasts-another-above-average-hurricane-season" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "NOAA forecasts another above average hurricane season" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6937799436832022528,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ils s'appelleront Alex, Bonnie, Colin, et, si il y en a 21 ou plus, Walter puis on verra : il s'agit des temp\u00eates tropicales et ouragans qui prendront place dans l'Atlantique en 2022. La saison des ouragans d\u00e9marre officiellement le 1er juin, mais en pratique c'est surtout \u00e0 la fin de l'\u00e9t\u00e9 - aout et septembre,quand l'oc\u00e9an a bien chauff\u00e9 - que se concentre le plus grand nombre d'ouragans.\n\nLa NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) pr\u00e9voit que cette ann\u00e9e il y aura probablement plus d'ouragans que \"la normale\". Mais, avec le r\u00e9chauffement climatique, n'est-ce pas normal qu'il y en ait de plus en plus ? En fait, ce que les mod\u00e8les nous disent, c'est que le nombre d'ouragans ne devrait pas significativement augmenter \u00e0 l'avenir. \n\nPar contre leur intensit\u00e9 devrait augmenter : plus de pr\u00e9cipitations et plus de vent. Il faut rappeler que la puissance du vent est proportionnelle au cube de sa vitesse, et donc que les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts ne font pas qu'augmenter de 10% quand la vitesse du vent augmente de 10%.\n\nMais cette annonce fait n\u00e9anmoins suite \u00e0 2 ann\u00e9es qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 plus actives que la normale (2020 et 2021). Ce qui est sur, c'est qu'avec un oc\u00e9an de surface de plus en plus chaud, l'\u00e9nergie cumul\u00e9e qu'il faut en \u00e9vacuer augmente. Il est donc normal que \"quelque chose se passe\" sur les ouragans, qui peuvent alors soit augmenter en nombre, soit en intensit\u00e9, soit en dur\u00e9e de vie, soit en surface occup\u00e9e, soit survenir dans des endroits o\u00f9 l'on ne les voyait pas avant. 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read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Une interview dans Ouest France en mai 2022 by jancovici.com", "actionTarget": "https://jancovici.com/publications-et-co/interviews/une-interview-dans-ouest-france-en-mai-2022/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une interview dans Ouest France en mai 2022" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6937468736660496384,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Monde sans Fin, le Plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise, Greta Thunberg, la formation du nouveau gouvernement, Macron, M\u00e9lenchon, l'Ukraine, l'urbanisme, l'emploi et la voiture (sans parler du reste) \u00e9taient au programme de cette interview de votre serviteur parue dans le quotidien lu dans le village d'Ast\u00e9rix (\u00e0 moins que ce ne soit le T\u00e9l\u00e9gramme de Brest peut-\u00eatre :) ).\n\nA en juger par le nombre de sollicitations re\u00e7ues r\u00e9cemment de la presse quotidienne r\u00e9gionale, il me semble que nous sommes en train de vivre une p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 beaucoup de certitudes sont en train de s'estomper, et o\u00f9 il faut trouver de nouveaux rep\u00e8res.\n\nLe covid et la guerre en Ukraine ont fait comprendre que l'avenir pouvait \u00eatre surprenant, et pas en bien, et les soubresauts du climat sont de plus en plus pr\u00e9sents dans les esprits. Ce genre de p\u00e9riode est \u00e0 la fois propice aux changements qui \u00e9taient souhaitables depuis longtemps... et aux actions qui vont en fait en rajouter \u00e0 nos peines en esp\u00e9rant pourtant r\u00e9gler des probl\u00e8mes urgents (n'oublions pas que l'Enfer est parfois pav\u00e9 de bonnes intentions !). \n\nPour se pr\u00e9munir au mieux contre la seconde \u00e9ventualit\u00e9, un des \"rem\u00e8des\" est de bien comprendre la situation de d\u00e9part. Je n'ai pas mentionn\u00e9 dans cette interview le besoin de formation qui me semble indispensable pour le nouveau gouvernement (qui, d'ici aux l\u00e9gislatives, est parfaitement disponible puisqu'il n'a rien de vital \u00e0 faire). Mais si j'ai un regret c'est que j'aurais du !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6937468736660496384,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6937468737587445760,urn:li:activity:6937468737587445760,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 52, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6937468737587445760,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6937468737587445760,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6937468737587445760", 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400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1517505720653?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=PdrBh6KgjPXOWtqP7A9cWNn387XMa3CNTiJqYW-Bl5I", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1517505720653?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=uCI86MBdqeNhlPEbvNgFWRN1H_tXKdfNX4NBxUD0JCY", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E03AQEVUafo85PUDA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "YfKAetM/RyWLnKKLtE6dUw==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Les Echos font une pouss\u00e9e de croissance verte. Dans l'\u00e9dition de Vendredi dernier, 2 recensions de livres revendiquent que croissance et environnement pourront \u00eatre concili\u00e9s \u00e0 l'avenir. Dans la critique du livre au titre explicite \"Growth for Good. Reshaping Capitalism to Save Humanity from Climate Catastrophe\", \u00e9crit par Alessio Terzi en 2022, Julien Damon \u00e9crit \"Le capitalisme devient (...) de plus en plus immat\u00e9riel et, potentiellement, de plus en plus favorable \u00e0 l'environnement\".\n\nJuste \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 (https://cutt.ly/SJozG1q ), c\u2019est Daniel FORTIN qui, \u00e9voquant un ouvrage de Guillaume Poitrinal intitul\u00e9 \"Pour en finir avec l'Apocalypse, Une \u00e9cologie de l\u2019action\", \u00e9crit \"Un livre choc qui d\u00e9construit les fausses solutions militantes et propose un vrai chemin pour affronter les d\u00e9fis environnementaux\" puis \"H\u00e9riss\u00e9 par la d\u00e9croissance (...)\" avant de reprendre clairement \u00e0 son compte la phrase \"En abandonnant la consommation, on appauvrit tout le monde. Mais surtout, on renonce au pouvoir de mieux consommer, et donc \u00e0 l'influence que l'on peut avoir sur l'\u00e9conomie mondialis\u00e9e qui nous entoure\".\n\nOn pourrait se dire qu'il est normal que les milieux d'affaires souhaitent la croissance, en m\u00eame temps que les individus qui les composent peuvent avoir envie (pas toujours ! Parfois ils pensent aussi que ca ne va pas vraiment les concerner) que l'on r\u00e9solve nos probl\u00e8mes d'environnement. Mais cette position est en fait plus la r\u00e8gle que l'exception. Les Nations Unies, par exemple, sont parfaitement raccord avec les deux articles des Echos. \n\nEn effet, dans les 17 Objectifs du D\u00e9veloppement Durable, le N\u00b0 8 vise la croissance, le N\u00b09 le d\u00e9veloppement de l'Industrie, et le N\u00b0 12 la consommation et la production (certes \"responsables\" !), pendant que le N\u00b0 13 demande une r\u00e9solution du probl\u00e8me climatique et le 6 de l'eau pure. Et quand on regarde de pr\u00e8s, on se rend malheureusement compte tout cela forme un ensemble sans aucune coh\u00e9rence (https://cutt.ly/KJozOSV ).\n\nUn groupe d'universitaires (avec quelques pi\u00e8ces rapport\u00e9es comme Yves Cochet !) vient m\u00eame de proposer que l'on abandonne ces ODD ! https://cutt.ly/CJozEgh.\n\nDe dangereux anticapitalistes, diront certains. Voire. Les chercheurs au MIT qui ont \u00e9crit The Limits to Growth n'ont pas, \u00e0 ma connaissance, pris position contre le grand capital. Ils ont juste correctement d\u00e9crit un syst\u00e8me productif sur le plan physique (https://cutt.ly/sJocCt1 ), et compris que les prix pass\u00e9s ne donnaient pas toute l'information sur les limites futures. \n\nCela n'a pas emp\u00each\u00e9 l'article 3 du trait\u00e9 de Lisbonne (la \"consitution europ\u00e9enne\") de mentionner noir sur blanc que l'Union vise la croissance (https://cutt.ly/jJoxypF ), et le terme \"green growth\" figure partout dans les textes europ\u00e9ens. \n\nH\u00e9las, nos r\u00eaves devront toujours c\u00e9der le pas devant les limites physiques de ce monde. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9060454030905120721)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theguardian.com \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: The banks collapsed in 2008 \u2013 and our food system is about to do the same | George Monbiot by amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/19/banks-collapsed-in-2008-food-system-same-producers-regulators" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "The banks collapsed in 2008 \u2013 and our food system is about to do the same | George Monbiot" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6936717917036134400,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "George Monbiot n'est pas connu pour dire souvent des choses gaies ou rassurantes. Mais il dit souvent des choses qui nous secouent de mani\u00e8re pertinente.\n\nDans cette chronique r\u00e9cemment publi\u00e9e dans le Guardian, l'auteur pointe du doigt un point important concernant notre alimentation : comme beaucoup d'autres productions, cette derni\u00e8re a \u00e9t\u00e9 mondialis\u00e9e, et ce qui \u00e9tait un avantage dans le pass\u00e9 va se retourner contre nous \u00e0 l'avenir. Les pays se sont sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9s (fruits et l\u00e9gumes ici, c\u00e9r\u00e9ales l\u00e0, \u00e9levage ailleurs) et les r\u00e9gions se sont sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9es au sein des pays (en France on le voit bien). \n\nC'est l'organisation qui est optimale dans le monde infini, o\u00f9 il y a pl\u00e9thore de p\u00e9trole pour assurer le transport entre les divers maillons du syst\u00e8me agricole et agroalimentaire (cultures, transformation, \u00e9levage, pr\u00e9paration, distribution, consommation). C'est aussi l'organisation optimale avec un climat stable, qui permet de rester longtemps sur les m\u00eames cultures et donc d'en perfectionner \u00e0 l'infini les modalit\u00e9s.\n\nL'ensemble est alors r\u00e9gul\u00e9 par le libre \u00e9change et des prix de march\u00e9 internationaux, qui forcent les pays adh\u00e9rant au syst\u00e8me \u00e0 se sp\u00e9cialiser dans les seules production pour lesquelles ils sont comp\u00e9titifs en d\u00e9laissant le reste.\n\nMais George Monbiot, en s'appuyant sur de la litt\u00e9rature scientifique traitant du sujet, pointe la fragilit\u00e9 du syst\u00e8me en univers contraint. Comme pour les m\u00e9dicaments au moment du covid, l'\u00e9clatement des syst\u00e8mes productifs de nourriture entre \u00e9tapes tr\u00e8s sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9es distantes les unes des autres cr\u00e9e une vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 accrue lorsqu'un maillon de la chaine fait d\u00e9faut.\n\nMonbiot souligne que le syst\u00e8me mondialis\u00e9 est devenu impossible \u00e0 comprendre dans sa globalit\u00e9 parce qu'il y a d\u00e9sormais trop d'interactions, exactement comme personne n'avait une vue globale du syst\u00e8me financier en 2008 et des enchainement en cascade pouvant y prendre place (je ne sais pas si c'est beaucoup mieux aujourd'hui !). De ce fait il en r\u00e9sulte une grande difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 \"consolider le syst\u00e8me\" dans son \u00e9tat actuel. \n\nMonbiot plaide en conclusion pour une action qui figure aussi dans le volet agriculture du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise : il faut \"d\u00e9-sp\u00e9cialiser\" les pays et r\u00e9gions agricoles. Cela fera un syst\u00e8me peut-\u00eatre moins productif quand tout va bien, mais beaucoup plus r\u00e9silient quand ca commence \u00e0 aller mal. Et comme la probabilit\u00e9 que \"tout aille bien\" pour un syst\u00e8me mondialis\u00e9 bas\u00e9 sur des grandes distances et un climat stable va diminuer avec le temps, on sait ce qui reste \u00e0 faire !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6936717917036134400,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6936717917715636225,urn:li:activity:6936717917715636225,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 108, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6936717917715636225,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6936717917715636225,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D03AQEo1DMWfO1Mig/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "qs5iY37cRHClarH6YHP6cw==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Dans le nouveau gouvernement, il y a un ministre qui aura une feuille de route particuli\u00e8rement ambitieuse si Macron est s\u00e9rieux sur sa volont\u00e9 de faire baisser les \u00e9missions fran\u00e7aises (en empreinte carbone \u00e9videmment) de 5% par an (ce qui est en ligne avec l'effort mondial correspondant \u00e0 une limitation de la hausse \u00e0 2\u00b0C) : celui en charge de l'emploi.\n\nLe travail, c'est un sujet majeur pour nous tou(te)s. Une des r\u00e9ticences \u00e0 engager la \"transition\" dans la population vient certes des habitudes de consommation, mais une autre vient de l'incertitude sur l'emploi si on enclenche les grandes manoeuvres (d'o\u00f9 l'imp\u00e9rieure n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de planifier, ce qui am\u00e8ne de la visibilit\u00e9 donc de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sur cet aspect des choses).\n\nC'est pour cela que l'emploi a fait l'objet d'un d\u00e9but d'analyse approfondie - sur quelques secteurs - dans le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (le PTEF) : https://lnkd.in/eZ9STp7Z\n\nContrairement \u00e0 ce qu'Am\u00e9lie de Montchalin affirmait r\u00e9cemment (\u00e0 3'45 sur cette compilation : https://lnkd.in/epPRuRdy ), d\u00e9carboner \u00e0 la bonne vitesse est une r\u00e9volution. C'est aller partout et tout le temps \u00e0 rebours de ce qui s'est pass\u00e9 quand la r\u00e9volution industrielle (qui en \u00e9tait bien une, de r\u00e9volution !) a carbon\u00e9 partout l'\u00e9conomie, et d\u00e9tricoter le syst\u00e8me plus rapidement (en 30 ans) qu'il n'a \u00e9t\u00e9 tricot\u00e9 (en un si\u00e8cle en gros).\n\nCela ne se fera donc pas sans toucher, partout et tout le temps, \u00e0 l'emploi et aux comp\u00e9tences. Certains emplois n'auront plus de pertinence, d'autres doivent se renforcer ou appara\u00eetre, et tous les emplois existants devront s'exercer diff\u00e9remment, ce qui demande un effort massif de formation continue et de reconversion.\n\nSi Macron est d\u00e9sormais un peu plus s\u00e9rieux sur sa volont\u00e9 de faire de la \"planification \u00e9cologique\" qu'il ne l'a \u00e9t\u00e9 lors de \"make the planet great again\" (qui aurait d\u00e9j\u00e0 du enclencher une planification), l'Etat va donc devoir engager la transformation de l'emploi avec un accompagnement sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent - un peu comme lorsque l'\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine s'est reconvertie pour la guerre en quelques ann\u00e9es en 1942 - et le ministre en charge - Olivier Dussopt donc - doit en avoir conscience. \n\nSigne int\u00e9ressant : les responsables syndicaux avec lesquels nous (The Shift Project) en avons discut\u00e9 dans le cadre de l'\u00e9laboration du PTEF avaient parfaitement conscience de cet aspect des choses (on nous a m\u00eame dit que nous \u00e9tions trop timor\u00e9s !). Dans les secteurs que nous avons regard\u00e9s, 25% de l'emploi devrait appara\u00eetre ou dispara\u00eetre - et tous le reste se transformer - en un peu plus de 25 ans. \n\nEt dans les autres secteurs il est probable que les mouvements seraient de m\u00eame ampleur. Je ne sais pas si mes 3 minutes r\u00e9glementaires sur RTL seront utiles pour attirer un peu plus l'attention du nouvel ex\u00e9cutif sur cette question, mais il serait temps de regarder cela de tr\u00e8s pr\u00e8s !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6936259043678162945,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6936259044647051264,urn:li:activity:6936259044647051264,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 46, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6936259044647051264,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6936259044647051264,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": 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\u00e9t\u00e9 na\u00efve, elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 cupide\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6935878965106515968,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Margrethe Vestager, commissaire europ\u00e9enne \u00e0 la concurrence, a donn\u00e9 une interview \u00e0 plusieurs journaux europ\u00e9ens dont les Echos.\n\nCa d\u00e9marre bien : elle explique que la course aux plus bas prix - ce que la concurrence doit amener, je rappelle - augmente l'ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 pour l'avenir. C'est au nom de l'approvisionnement au moindre cout que nous avons d\u00e9localis\u00e9 et allong\u00e9 les chaines de valeur, cr\u00e9\u00e9 des d\u00e9pendances parfois majeures \u00e0 des pays ou des entreprises \"lointains\" qui peuvent faire d\u00e9faut sans trop pr\u00e9venir.\n\nDans la foul\u00e9e, Vestager consid\u00e8re que nous avons \u00e9t\u00e9 \"cupides\" en achetant du gaz russe. Cela se discute : nous avons import\u00e9 ce gaz faute de production europ\u00e9enne suffisante, et la \"physique du gaz\" fait que c'est plus facile d'acheminer ce gaz par gazoduc de pays voisins que par m\u00e9thanier sous forme liquide.\n\nEnsuite, il n'y a pas que la cupidit\u00e9 qui a jou\u00e9. Il y a quelques d\u00e9cennies, l'Europe a fait le choix du gaz contre le nucl\u00e9aire (ce qui ne rel\u00e8ve pas de la cupidit\u00e9) dans l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, et le choix des chaudi\u00e8res \u00e0 gaz contre les pompes \u00e0 chaleur (ce qui rel\u00e8ve un peu de la cupidit\u00e9 mais pas que) dans le chauffage. \n\nVestager constate ensuite que pour les m\u00e9taux de la transition nous sommes quasi-totalement d\u00e9pendants de l'\u00e9tranger. Il faut accepter de payer pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 dit-elle. Mais payer cher ne cr\u00e9e pas de minerai de cuivre ou de fer sur le continent europ\u00e9en... et donc il faudra quand m\u00eame choisir de qui on d\u00e9pend. Plus on aura besoin de m\u00e9tal en volume, plus nous serons \u00e0 risque.\n\nEst-ce que \"Madame concurrence\" commencerait \u00e0 envisager moins de concurrence et plus de planification ? Pas si vite ! Car elle d\u00e9clare \"Nous ne devons surtout pas renationaliser le march\u00e9 europ\u00e9en de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, cela m\u00e8nerait tout simplement \u00e0 des black-out\u00a0!\".\n\nOn ne va quand m\u00eame pas adapter notre syst\u00e8me de pens\u00e9e aux faits :) Car c'est plut\u00f4t la \"lib\u00e9ralisation\" qui cr\u00e9e des risques de black-out... La \"lib\u00e9ralisation\" a d\u00e9courag\u00e9 le nucl\u00e9aire - compact, bas carbone et pilotable - \u00e0 cause de l'impr\u00e9visibilit\u00e9 des prix de march\u00e9 et de la tr\u00e8s forte hausse du cout du capital (voir la sensibilit\u00e9 du cout du MWh au cout du capital sur https://lnkd.in/eGwQXF_A ), a retir\u00e9 des marges aux d\u00e9tenteurs des centrales - qui investissent - pour la donner \u00e0 des distributeurs qui n'investissent pas, a demand\u00e9 partout des subventions en plus des prix de march\u00e9 justement pour permettre l'investissement, a cr\u00e9\u00e9 des offres \"d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 verte\" qui n'ont aucune existence physique... et Vestager explique sans rire que le syst\u00e8me est devenu meilleur qu'avant ? \n\nAvant \"march\u00e9 partout\" et antinucl\u00e9arisme infond\u00e9, le pays qui avait le syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique le plus performant d'Europe sans \"don de la nature\" (les barrages permis par les montagnes) \u00e9tait la France et son op\u00e9rateur public. Qu'avons nous gagn\u00e9 \u00e0 tout casser ? Juste du temps perdu alors que nous sommes dans une course contre la montre. Nous n'avons h\u00e9las pas fini de payer cette illusion." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6935878965106515968,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6935878966234759168,urn:li:activity:6935878966234759168,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 72, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6935878966234759168,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6935878966234759168,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Cet acteur am\u00e9ricain collecte de l'\u00e9pargne (particuliers, entreprises, gouvernements...), et la \"place\" - en achetant des actions ou obligations d'entreprises ou d'\u00e9tats, ou des produits qui en sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s - \"dans l'int\u00e9r\u00eat financier\" des \u00e9pargnants.\n\nBlackrock \u00e9tant tr\u00e8s gros, il est partout. D\u00e8s que vous allez regarder qui d\u00e9tient le capital d'une \"grosse\" entreprise cot\u00e9e (par exemple celles du CAC 40 en France) vous allez souvent y voir Blackrock avec 1% \u00b1 0,5% du capital.\n\nSur la page d'accueil du site de Blackrock France (image ci-dessous) il figure une affirmation qui laisse penser que Blackrock va \u00e0 la fois bien choisir les entreprises au regard de leurs performances climatiques, et \"bien\" voter aux assembl\u00e9es (puisque Blackrock y vote pour le compte de ses mandants).\n\nPour ce qui est du premier point, la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 est que quand vous \u00eates investis dans toute entreprise cot\u00e9e de grande taille, ce qui est in\u00e9vitable quand vous avez 10.000 milliards de dollars \u00e0 placer, vous n'\u00eates ni plus ni moins vert que l'\u00e9conomie mondiale dans son ensemble. Pour pouvoir se diff\u00e9rencier de \"la moyenne\", il faut rester petit par rapport \u00e0 la taille de l'\u00e9conomie (c'est vrai quelle que soit l'activit\u00e9).\n\nSur le second point, il faut lire le document que Blackrock vient de publier sur sa politique de vote aux r\u00e9solutions \"climat\" qui sont propos\u00e9es lors des assembl\u00e9es g\u00e9n\u00e9rales : https://lnkd.in/eteMCWJq\n\nIl y est en effet \u00e9crit noir sur blanc :\n- Sans exception, nos d\u00e9cisions sont guid\u00e9es par notre devoir fiduciaire d'agir pour l'int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9conomique de long terme de nos clients\n- [Blackrock]\u00a0note que de nombreuses propositions d'actionnaires li\u00e9es au climat qui seront soumises au vote en 2022 (...) peuvent ne pas promouvoir la valeur actionnariale \u00e0 long terme (sous-entendu \u00e0 ce moment on vote contre parce que notre premier crit\u00e8re est la valeur \u00e9conomique)\n- [Blackrock n'est pas susceptible] de soutenir les propositions d'actionnaires qui (...) demandent des changements dans la strat\u00e9gie ou le mod\u00e8le d'affaires d'une entreprise.\n\nOn ne saurait \u00eatre plus clair : on veut bien sauver la plan\u00e8te si ca ne signifie pas changer les entreprises ou gagner moins d'argent. Ne rien changer pour que tout change !\n\nCette \"franchise\" n'est pas isol\u00e9e dans le monde financier. R\u00e9cemment le responsable de l'investissement ISR d'HSBC a affirm\u00e9 que le risque financier du changement climatique \u00e9tait faible (donc inutile de se pr\u00e9occuper de climat) : https://lnkd.in/eFez3-Wa\n\nPourrait-il en \u00eatre autrement ? Pas simple : un acteur de la taille de Blackrock (ou HSBC) sera d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 le jour o\u00f9 l'\u00e9conomie mondiale le sera. 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6934761412770598912,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Demandez le programme ! En 2021 et d\u00e9but 2022, The Shift Project aura connu sa p\u00e9riode la plus prolifique si l'on en juge par le nombre de rapports et propositions qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9s. Mais quand l'ambition est de proposer du changement dans la soci\u00e9t\u00e9, produire des rapports ne suffit pas : il faut surtout faire en sorte que cette mati\u00e8re soit port\u00e9e \u00e0 la connaissance du plus grand nombre de personnes possibles.\n\nC'est pour cela que notre Think tank a cr\u00e9\u00e9 un \"catalogue\" regroupant toutes les interventions que nous pouvons proposer pour venir \u00e0 la rencontre \"du public\". Cette d\u00e9marche d'ouverture acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e sur l'ext\u00e9rieur s'appelle le \"printemps du Shift\", et englobe l'Univershift\u00e9 qui prendra place fin juin (https://lnkd.in/ehnwuzmW ).\n\nVoici une liste non exhaustive de ce qui est propos\u00e9 sous forme de conf\u00e9rence :\n\n- Teach The Shift : expos\u00e9s p\u00e9dagogiques pour comprendre l'enjeu \u00e9nergie climat\n\n- Pr\u00e9sentation des derniers rapports du GIEC\n\n- Pr\u00e9sentation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale du PTEF : le Plan de transformation de l\u2019\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\n\n- Propositions (et constats) concernant l'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur\n\n- Histoire et perspectives de production pour le p\u00e9trole et le gaz sous seule contrainte g\u00e9ologique\n\n- Comment approcher la question de la r\u00e9silience des territoires\n\n- Impact environnemental du num\u00e9rique, sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 num\u00e9rique\n\n- Empreinte carbone des pays\u00a0; mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res ; \u00e9nergie-PIB\n\n- Place de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire dans le monde\n\nPr\u00e9sentation d'un chapitre du PTEF :\nEmploi\nA\u00e9rien\nIndustrie\u00a0(ciment, acier, chimie, manufacturi\u00e8re\u2026) et recyclage\nMobilit\u00e9 quotidienne\nMobilit\u00e9 longue distance\nIndustrie automobile\nFret\nLogement et r\u00e9novation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\nFinance\nCulture\u00a0: spectacle vivant, cin\u00e9ma, livre, arts visuels\nSant\u00e9\nAdministration publique\n\nTout cela est gratuit (par contre le pop corn n'est pas fourni). Pour chaque intervention propos\u00e9e il y a un mail de contact. Nous esp\u00e9rons que l'affirmation de \"planification \u00e9cologique\" de notre chef de l'Etat renouvel\u00e9 vous donnera envie d'en discuter plus en d\u00e9tail autour de propositions concr\u00e8tes. 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Le titre pourrait faire penser que l'on va parler sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 et contraction \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \u00e0 Davos. Mais pas du tout : c'est juste le Forum lui-m\u00eame qui se contracte ! Moins de participant(e)s, voire beaucoup moins pour certains pays. Moins de repas, moins de stars....\n\nCe n'est au fond pas si \u00e9tonnant que cela. Davos est n\u00e9 avec la mondialisation. Et il est probable que ce Forum - ou l'essentiel de ce qu'il est - mourra avec la mondialisation. Entre covid et guerre en Ukraine, la mondialisation a connu un premier petit accroc. Mais ce ne sera pas le dernier : cette profusion de flux physiques sillonnant le globe est un enfant du p\u00e9trole.\n\nAvec moins de ce dernier, de gr\u00e9 ou de force, la mondialisation - du moins pour une tr\u00e8s large partie de ce qui la compose aujourd'hui - est donc appel\u00e9e aussi \u00e0 perdre de son \u00e9clat au fil du si\u00e8cle en cours. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Nouveau gouvernement : quelle place pour l'\u00e9cologie ? by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/c-est-notre-planete/7900156540-nouveau-gouvernement-quelle-place-pour-l-ecologie" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Nouveau gouvernement : quelle place pour l'\u00e9cologie ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6934074702927695872,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Quand on a une id\u00e9e en t\u00eate, on ne l'a pas ailleurs, comme disait je ne sais plus qui. Puisqu'il vient d'\u00eatre form\u00e9, j'ai r\u00e9it\u00e9r\u00e9 - via ma chronique du Samedi matin sur RTL - \u00e0 l'adresse du nouveau gouvernement le souhait qui figurait dans la tribune r\u00e9cemment parue dans le JDD et appelant le nouveau gouvernement \u00e0 d\u00e9marrer son nouveau mandat par 20h de formation sur les enjeux \u00e9cologiques et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, c'est \u00e0 dire passer 20 h de cours (ou d'ateliers comme la Fresque du Climat) \u00e0 apprendre un peu de physique, chimie et biologie \u00e9l\u00e9mentaires, parce que \"l'environnement\" c'est d'abord cela.\n\nEn ce qui me concerne, la satisfaction ou pas de cette demande sera un test, pour les raisons suivantes :\n\n- Il n'y a pas un poste minist\u00e9riel qui \u00e9chappe au sujet : la transition demande de g\u00e9rer diff\u00e9remment l'emploi, la formation, la fonction publique, la diplomatie, l'arm\u00e9e, les sports ou l'outre-mer, outre \u00e9videmment les transports, l'agriculture, le logement, l'am\u00e9nagement du territoire, et bien sur l'\u00e9conomie qui est la mani\u00e8re conventionnelle - mais erron\u00e9e - de repr\u00e9senter ce que nous faisons physiquement. \n\n- \u00e0 de rares exceptions pr\u00e8s peut-\u00eatre, le niveau de d\u00e9part des membres de ce gouvernement n'est pas suffisant pour leur permettre de bien comprendre le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter. Tous les \u00e9changes que j'ai pu avoir avec des ministres au cours des ann\u00e9es \u00e9coul\u00e9es ont eu comme point commun le constat qu'ils n'avaient pas en t\u00eate le bon cahier des charges sur la question.\n\n- 20h, ce n'est rien sur la dur\u00e9e d'un mandat gouvernemental. Nous avons attendu bien plus de 20h pour avoir la composition du nouveau gouvernement. Que ce dernier ne \"travaille\" pas pendant 20h de plus ne va rien changer au destin du pays. Qu'ils fassent l'\u00e9conomie d'une formation essentielle pour comprendre dans quel cadre nous sommes va par contre changer (en mal) le destin du pays.\n\n- le contenu n'est pas tr\u00e8s compliqu\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00e9tablir. De mon c\u00f4t\u00e9 je peux en proposer 10, \u00e0 savoir les 4 premiers modules de mon cours \u00e0 Mines ParisTech : https://lnkd.in/dM7u2j7 Il faut y rajouter des bases sur la biodiversit\u00e9, les ressources m\u00e9talliques, une fresque du climat pour v\u00e9rifier qu'ils ont compris, un calcul d'empreinte carbone personnelle (au hasard https://www.myco2.fr/ ) pour leur faire toucher du doigt un cas concret de comptabilit\u00e9 carbone, et on doit y \u00eatre \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s.\n\n- suivre un cours pour un(e) ministre n'est pas se d\u00e9shonorer. Si les 150 membres de la Convention Citoyenne pour le Climat ont commenc\u00e9 par l\u00e0, les \u00e9lecteurs ne vont pas critiquer le fait que les ministres proc\u00e8dent de m\u00eame, si ?\n\nEt donc, au risque de me r\u00e9p\u00e9ter, organiser cette formation - ou son absence - sera un bon test de v\u00e9rit\u00e9. 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bilan carbone et membre..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "\u00ab Climat : comment repousser la fin du monde \u00bb \u2013 Quartier Libre avec Jean-Marc Jancovici [EXTRAIT]" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6933697736630263808,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 176, "length": 13, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Aude", "lastName": "Lancelin", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABudQlkBMbqIS0DESxMhqBUeUY7TWC-KmFg", "occupation": "Journaliste et auteur, fondatrice QG le m\u00e9dia libre", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:463290969", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAABudQlkBMbqIS0DESxMhqBUeUY7TWC-KmFg", "publicIdentifier": "aude-lancelin-2491a410b", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": 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\"dans les conditions du direct\" donc c'est comme si cela avait \u00e9t\u00e9 hier soir) par Aude Lancelin, sur sa chaine internet QG TV.\n\nNous sommes repartis du d\u00e9roul\u00e9 du Monde sans Fin (qui n'est plus en rupture de stock !) pour balayer les divers sujets qui y sont abord\u00e9s. Je m'attendais \u00e9videmment, vue mon interlocutrice, \u00e0 \u00eatre \"challeng\u00e9\" sur la possibilit\u00e9 de marier fin du mois et fin du monde - question \u00f4 combien l\u00e9gitime. \n\nLa premi\u00e8re partie de notre BD faisant - h\u00e9las - comprendre que notre plan\u00e8te ne pourra pas physiquement supporter longtemps - et en fait ne supporte d\u00e9j\u00e0 plus - le niveau de consommation mat\u00e9rielle d'un(e) fran\u00e7ais(e) modeste d'aujourd'hui, comment porter un discours d'espoir qui permette d'agir tout en acceptant cette r\u00e9alit\u00e9 ?\n\nJe ne suis pas sur d'avoir la martingale pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette question. Mais ce qui est sur c'est que c'est en ces termes qu'il faut que le nouveau gouvernement r\u00e9fl\u00e9chisse, tout comme chacun(e) d'entre nous." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6933697736630263808,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6933697737582383105,urn:li:activity:6933697737582383105,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 29, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6933697737582383105,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6933697737582383105,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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"urn:li:fsd_company:623589", "trackingId": "712EW3bWQ7e8wapSFmTmnQ==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Le Parisien propose \u00e0 ses lectrices et lecteurs de \"voter pour l\u2019innovation qui va r\u00e9volutionner notre vie\". Afin de ne laisser aucune ambigu\u00eft\u00e9, l'autrice ou l'auteur de l'article (qui n'est pas sign\u00e9, peut-\u00eatre par peur de ce qui suit) pr\u00e9cise ensuite que \"Il s\u2019agit de choisir une innovation parmi cinq qui, selon vous, pourraient changer nos vies.\"\n\nAvec une telle accroche, je suis plein d'espoir. A-t-on invent\u00e9 une mani\u00e8re de faire revenir la pluie l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il fait trop sec ? Une fa\u00e7on de recr\u00e9er les stocks de poissons ou d'arr\u00eater la fonte du Groenland ? Une machine \u00e0 amener la paix l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il y a des conflits ? Une mani\u00e8re infaillible de lutter contre la s\u00e9dentarit\u00e9 et de donner envie \u00e0 chaque fran\u00e7ais(e) d'enfourcher un v\u00e9lo ? Un argument convaincant pour que la planification \u00e9cologique de Macron ne soit pas qu'un slogan ?\n\nMeuh non, ce qui pourrait changer votre vie est, au choix, un robot \u00e0 faire le caf\u00e9, un robot qui monte les escaliers, ou un chien robot qui fait tout comme un vrai (l'article ne dit pas si il pisse ou pas contre les lampadaires ou \"renifle le cul\" comme dans Didier).\n\nNous ne sommes pas le 1er avril et Le Parisien n'a pas rachet\u00e9 le Gorafi. Par contre... Le Parisien est poss\u00e9d\u00e9 par le m\u00eame groupe que celui qui op\u00e8re Vivatech (Les Echos - Le Parisien : https://lnkd.in/eYApB2XU). Cela peut-il expliquer une telle fascination pour le gadget de la part de certain(e)s journalistes jusqu'\u00e0 en perdre le sens des mots ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6933432333572177920,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6933432334281015296,urn:li:activity:6933432334281015296,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 163, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6933432334281015296,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6933432334281015296,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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Le PIB europ\u00e9en est reparti \u00e0 la hausse en 2021... et les \u00e9missions aussi.\n\nL'annonce de Macron de vouloir doubler le rythme de baisse des \u00e9missions en France est une bonne chose. Mais l'histoire nous a montr\u00e9 que ca c'\u00e9tait la partie la plus facile. Pour passer \u00e0 l'action il nous faut un plan ! \n\nPour le moment le plan est de marier croissance \u00e9conomique et baisse des \u00e9missions. Malheureusement ne pas choisir c'est choisir quand m\u00eame. Car nous finirons par avoir la d\u00e9croissance subie (probablement \"en marches d'escalier\", avec des \"accidents\" dont l'Ukraine et le covid sont des exemples ; le climat et le d\u00e9faut de ressources nous en am\u00e8neront d'autres) ET les emm... climatiques augment\u00e9s nourris par des \u00e9missions qui n'ont pas baiss\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re volontaire dans le monde.\n\nLorsque j'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 re\u00e7u par le pr\u00e9sident renouvel\u00e9 il y a 10 jours je lui ai dit que son cadre d'exercice allait \u00eatre, en tendance, de g\u00e9rer plus de probl\u00e8mes avec moins de moyens. Je ne l'ai pas senti compl\u00e8tement convaincu. Il va pourtant bien falloir que cette lecture physique de notre avenir soit comprise si on veut m\u00e9nager ce dernier au mieux..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6933303991611097088,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6933303992315752449,urn:li:activity:6933303992315752449,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 64, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6933303992315752449,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6933303992315752449,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8891217229682027073)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: S\u00e9cheresse : les barrages hydro\u00e9lectriques sous haute surveillance by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/secheresse-les-barrages-hydroelectriques-sous-haute-surveillance-1407749" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "S\u00e9cheresse\u00a0: les barrages hydro\u00e9lectriques sous haute surveillance" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6932959700023963649,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Lorsque nous discutons sc\u00e9narisation \u00e9lectrique, il est fr\u00e9quent d'entendre que l'avenir ne va d\u00e9pendre que de nos envies, quelle que soit l'option politique retenue.\n\nVous aimez le nucl\u00e9aire ? Alors il suffit de tenir un discours un peu martial comme \u00e0 Belfort et la machine repartira. \n\nVous aimez les renouvelables ? Alors il suffit de dire que \"c'est possible\" et nous n'aurons que cela. \n\nIl y a besoin de gaz dans l'intervalle ? Pas grave : le gaz est disponible et donc on peut s'en servir \"en attendant\".\n\nMais voil\u00e0, la vraie vie est en train de nous proposer surtout une collection de points d'interrogation :\n- CO2 ou pas CO2, il ne va peut-\u00eatre pas avoir autant de gaz que l'on voudrait,\n- il ne va peut-\u00eatre pas avoir autant d'eau dans les barrages que l'on voudrait, \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \"verte\" (qui correspond essentiellement \u00e0 des certificats de garantie d'origine \u00e9mis par des barrages) ou pas\n- apr\u00e8s des d\u00e9cennies de \"stop and go\" politique pour cause de d\u00e9magogie \u00e9lectorale, et de confusion des genres entre une entreprise productive qui doit s'autofinancer et une poche dans laquelle l'Etat se sert \u00e0 discr\u00e9tion (et Macron a contribu\u00e9 aux deux), le nucl\u00e9aire est affaibli\n- et les \"nouvelles ENR\" ne seront peut-\u00eatre pas si simples \u00e0 d\u00e9ployer \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle, parce que ce sont des dispositifs pas chers... dans une \u00e9conomie mondialis\u00e9e dop\u00e9e aux combustibles fossiles.\n\nEn effet, ce dont les 20 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es ont fait la preuve, c'est d'une baisse de couts des \u00e9oliennes et panneaux solaires dans un monde consommant de plus en plus de p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon. Cela ne d\u00e9montre en rien que cette baisse reste acquise dans un monde o\u00f9 il n'y a plus de p\u00e9trole pour les engins de mine, les camions et la marine marchande, plus de charbon pour la m\u00e9tallurgie et l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, et plus de gaz pour l'industrie manufacturi\u00e8re, l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, les cimenteries ou la chimie amont.\n\nLe vent et le soleil \u00e9tant des \u00e9nergies diffuses, il leur faut (beaucoup) plus de m\u00e9tal par kWh que pour les \u00e9nergies concentr\u00e9es (charbon, gaz ou nucl\u00e9aire) et beaucoup plus d'espace et de dispositifs annexes (stockage, r\u00e9seau, voire dispositifs de pilotage en fr\u00e9quence).\n\nSi l'\u00e9conomie se \"d\u00e9mondialise\", parce que la mondialisation c'est l'abondance de transports donc de p\u00e9trole, alors plus il y a de mat\u00e9riaux \"lointains\" (les m\u00e9taux en font partie) n\u00e9cessaires dans une production, et plus cette derni\u00e8re coutera cher.\n\nC'est du reste quelque chose de coh\u00e9rent avec ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de qui s'observe depuis le covid, qui a engendr\u00e9 une petite exp\u00e9rience de d\u00e9mondialisation involontaire : \u00e9oliennes et paneaux solaires voient leur prix augmenter (https://lnkd.in/eqJqBtfC ). \n\nIl est donc urgent de r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 des sc\u00e9narios \u00e9lectriques - et un cadre \u00e9conomique - coh\u00e9rents avec une \u00e9conomie qui fonctionne en mode d\u00e9grad\u00e9. Nous allons de toute fa\u00e7on devoir assumer un risque. Le monde des bisounours n'existera pas." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6932959700023963649,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6932959701089320960,urn:li:activity:6932959701089320960,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 50, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6932959701089320960,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6932959701089320960,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6932959701089320960", 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8266224100411949340)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtl.fr" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Environnement : les biocarburants peuvent-ils remplacer le p\u00e9trole ? by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/c-est-notre-planete/7900154378-environnement-les-biocarburants-peuvent-ils-remplacer-le-petrole" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Environnement : les biocarburants peuvent-ils remplacer le p\u00e9trole ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6932674622219821056,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le p\u00e9trole devient hors de prix ? Rempla\u00e7ons le ! Depuis des ann\u00e9es d\u00e9j\u00e0, le carburant disponible \u00e0 la pompe incorpore des produits qui ne sont pas issus d'un gisement de p\u00e9trole, mais de cultures :\n- l'essence contient de l'\u00e9thanol issu de bl\u00e9 (oui oui de bl\u00e9 !), de betteraves, ou de ma\u00efs (aux USA 40% du ma\u00efs est utilis\u00e9 pour faire des agrocarburants)\n- le diesel contient des huiles est\u00e9rifi\u00e9es issues du colza, du palme, du soja, voire du tournesol. \n\nCette id\u00e9e de se passer de p\u00e9trole en utilisant des cultures illustre \u00e0 merveille la difficult\u00e9 de revenir \u00e0 la situation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \"d'avant le p\u00e9trole\" (donc avec juste des \u00e9nergies renouvelables, au premier chef desquelles la biomasse) tout en conservant les acquis de la civilisation du p\u00e9trole, \u00e0 savoir 1,2 milliard de voitures de plus d'une tonne sur terre, plus de 20.000 avions de ligne, sans compter les bateaux, tracteurs, engins de mine, poids lourds, et j'en passe.\n\nCar des combustibles issus de la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation, tout le monde en veut pour se passer d'or noir. Le secteur a\u00e9rien compte tr\u00e8s fort sur les \"sustainable aviation fuels\", largement d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de la biomasse, pendant que les gaziers comptent sur le \"gaz vert\", lui aussi issu de la biomasse (par fermentation), et que les constructeurs et utilisateurs de voitures comptent sur les \"bio\" (en fait agro) carburants.\n\nDans cette courte chronique diffus\u00e9e Samedi dernier sur RTL, je propose un petit calcul d'ordre de grandeur pour expliquer pourquoi ces carburants resteront marginaux dans un monde consommant 4 milliards de tonnes de p\u00e9trole par an. \n\nPar contre, plus nous voudrons mettre de d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de la biomasse dans nos moteurs, centrales \u00e9lectriques et chaudi\u00e8res, et moins il restera de surfaces disponibles pour nous nourrir, faire pousser des mat\u00e9riaux (bois, fibres, mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res pour la chimie organique), et h\u00e9berger la biodiversit\u00e9.\n\nEt, en cette p\u00e9riode de prix tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour les c\u00e9r\u00e9ales, il faut rappeler que si nous avions accept\u00e9 de diminuer la consommation des voitures de 20% (en les faisant plus petites et moins puissantes), nous n'aurions pas besoin donner une partie de nos cultures \u00e0 manger \u00e0 ces animaux \u00e0 4 roues, et la situation serait moins tendue pour ceux qui ont juste faim. Et plus le temps passera, et plus ce dilemme augmentera." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6932674622219821056,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6932674622882504704,urn:li:activity:6932674622882504704,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 101, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6932674622882504704,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6932674622882504704,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8301324662866464929)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "huffingtonpost.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L'Inde suspend ses exportations de bl\u00e9, le G7 s'inqui\u00e8te d'une crise alimentaire aggrav\u00e9e by huffingtonpost.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/entry/inde-suspend-ses-exportations-de-ble-le-g7-sinquiete-dune-crise-alimentaire-aggravee_fr_627fd65ce4b050d95192745a" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Inde suspend ses exportations de bl\u00e9, le G7 s'inqui\u00e8te d'une crise alimentaire aggrav\u00e9e" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6932302008079032320,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Je dois dire que j'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 surpris de d\u00e9couvrir, \u00e0 l'occasion de cette nouvelle largement diffus\u00e9e (que l'Inde n'exporterait pas de bl\u00e9 cette ann\u00e9e), que le pays le plus peupl\u00e9 de la plan\u00e8te (\u00e0 parit\u00e9 avec la Chine), et disposant de 4 fois moins de surface cultivable par personne (0,14 hectare) que la moyenne mondiale (un peu au-dessus de 0,6 hectare) \u00e9tait... exportateur de c\u00e9r\u00e9ales. \n\nDe m\u00eame, alors que la production de c\u00e9r\u00e9ales par personne et par an est proche de 400 kgs en moyenne mondiale (donn\u00e9es Banque Mondiale et graphique en commentaire), cette valeur n'est que de 220 kgs en Inde, soit 40% de moins. A titre de comparaison, cette valeur est de une tonne (de c\u00e9r\u00e9ales par personne et par an) en France, de 1,4 tonne aux USA et de 800 kgs en Russie.\n\nComment un pays qui produit aussi peu (enfin relativement aux autres grands exportateurs) peut-il d\u00e9gager un surplus ?\n\nUne des explications possibles vient peut-\u00eatre de l'utilisation de ces c\u00e9r\u00e9ales : l'Inde produit 40% de viande de boeuf en moins que la France (alors que sa population est 20 fois plus nombreuse), 7 fois moins de viande de porc, et \"seulement\" 3 fois plus de volaille (donc en fait 6 fois moins par habitant). L'esp\u00e9rance de vie \u00e0 la naissance y est de 70 ans.\n\nIl n'en reste pas moins que cette d\u00e9cision indienne a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 faire grimper les prix des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales au plafond pour les \u00e9changes internationaux. Cela va contribuer \u00e0 rendre encore plus difficile l'acc\u00e8s (\u00e9conomique) \u00e0 la nourriture dans les pays fortement importateurs (dont plusieurs pays d'Afrique du Nord).\n\nCette nouvelle n'est h\u00e9las qu'une demi-surprise : avec une population plan\u00e9taire en hausse, des approvisionnements agricoles qui vont \u00eatre n\u00e9gativement impact\u00e9s par le changement climatique et/ou l'acc\u00e8s plus difficile \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie (gaz pour les engrais, p\u00e9trole pour la m\u00e9canisation et le transport aval, gaz et p\u00e9trole pour les phytosanitaires) la seule question est de savoir \u00e0 quel rythme et \u00e0 quel horizon de temps on verra appara\u00eetre des tensions croissantes.\n\nNotre nouvelle premi\u00e8re ministre arrive pile dans une petite r\u00e9p\u00e9tition g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de ce qui sera de plus en plus notre quotidien : des conditions de temp\u00e9rature et de pr\u00e9cipitations pas sympathiques, un acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie plus difficile, des chaines mondialis\u00e9es perturb\u00e9es, et une inflation qui va en cons\u00e9quence devenir plus ou moins structurelle, du moins exprim\u00e9e en nombre d'heures de travail n\u00e9cessaires pour se payer quelque chose.\n\nNous ne pouvons pas faire grand chose \u00e0 court terme en ce qui concerne la production c\u00e9r\u00e9ali\u00e8re en dehors de nos fronti\u00e8res. Par contre nous devrions nous doter aussi vite que possible d'une boite \u00e0 outils appropri\u00e9e pour anticiper et planifier avec le monde tel qu'il va \u00eatre, et non tel que l'on aimerait qu'il soit." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6932302008079032320,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6932302009039519744,urn:li:activity:6932302009039519744,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 146, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6932302009039519744,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6932302009039519744,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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\u00e9mission" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6931967568014393344,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 1270, "length": 9, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:164716", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:164716", "name": "Les Echos", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1614596361150?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=1mOk7v0jlnCgcIswWyYHmIJewK7-gk_r177j-Dwp4tM", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1614596361150?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=rpDGHIGtA_4yGaFUdh9VuXSkC5Jf7cl29bRNg1rsCiA", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1614596361150?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=SZO0sBQXbxYynz8dd9fVa-Jtq8ZS209SRpqIEXlQ3Os", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D0BAQGU2tYAtnGruQ/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "les-echos", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:164716", "trackingId": "sm+90UlOTgW23LLYffoyHw==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Anglo American est un g\u00e9ant minier op\u00e9rant dans de nombreux pays pour extraire de la croute terrestre des babioles diverses qui se retrouvent ensuite partout autour de nous : \n- nickel, mangan\u00e8se, minerai de fer et charbon m\u00e9tallurgique (tout cela sert pour l'acier)\n- cuivre\n- platino\u00efdes (catalyseurs, piles \u00e0 combustible...)\n- et... diamants, qui restent souvent consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme le \"nec plus ultra\" de la preuve d'amour.\n\nMais... ces m\u00e9taux et min\u00e9raux ne sortent pas de la croute terrestre tous seuls. Il faut les y aider un peu en allant faire des trous, puis en charriant jusqu'au lieu o\u00f9 il sera \"travaill\u00e9\" (purifi\u00e9, raffin\u00e9, transform\u00e9...) le mat\u00e9riau extrait de la mine (et qui contient en quantit\u00e9s variable du minerai ou des pierres pr\u00e9cieuses et de la terre ou de la roche).\n\nPour ce transport on utilise souvent des dumpers, \u00e9normes camions qui peuvent mesurer jusqu'\u00e0 8 m\u00e8tres de haut et dont la benne transporte jusqu'\u00e0 des centaines de tonnes de mat\u00e9riau. Bien \u00e9videmment chacun de ces engins utilise des quantit\u00e9s respectables de diesel pour fonctionner. \n\nPour \"d\u00e9carboner\" cette op\u00e9ration Anglo-American va tester des dumpers \u00e0 l'hydrog\u00e8ne. L'op\u00e9rateur affiche cr\u00e2nement sur les v\u00e9hicules \"z\u00e9ro \u00e9mission\", et, emport\u00e9 par cet \u00e9lan, le journaliste de Les Echos utilise aussi cette expression. A-t-il raison ?\n\nPoser la question c'est y r\u00e9pondre : z\u00e9ro, surement pas. Il faut toujours fabriquer le dumper, sa pile \u00e0 combustible (qui contient du platine... peut-\u00eatre extrait par Anglo-American, tr\u00e8s bien plac\u00e9 du coup pour avoir le bilan carbone de ce m\u00e9tal !), ainsi que le dispositif de production d'hydrog\u00e8ne, et tenir compte du rendement des op\u00e9rations en chaine dans tout cela.\n\nApplication pratique juste pour l'\u00e9nergie : avec un panneau solaire en Afrique du Sud le kWh solaire doit \u00eatre \u00e0 environ 30 g de CO2 (il est \u00e0 45 en France). L'\u00e9lectrolyse aura un rendement de 70% et la compression de l'hydrog\u00e8ne ensuite de 80%. La pile \u00e0 combustible a un rendement de 50%. Enfin le moteur \u00e9lectrique a un rendement de 80%. Rendement de chaine : 0,7*0,8*0,5*0,8 \u2248 22% de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'arbre moteur en supposant z\u00e9ro fuite (car les fuites d'hydrog\u00e8ne sont particuli\u00e8rement impactantes sur le climat).\n\nCa fait donc le kWh m\u00e9canique \u00e0 \u2248 130 g de CO2 hors fabrication de la pile \u00e0 combustible. C'est assur\u00e9ment beaucoup moins que le diesel. Ce dernier \u00e9met 300 g de CO2 par kWh thermique, et en supposant que le rendement du moteur est de 40% cela fait 750g par kWh m\u00e9canique \u00e0 l'arbre moteur.\n\nCela n'aurait pas cout\u00e9 cher au journaliste de faire le calcul et d'\u00e9crire non point \"z\u00e9ro CO2\" mais tout simplement \"quasiment 6 fois moins de CO2\". La presse \u00e9conomique, normalement \u00e0 l'aise et pr\u00e9cise avec les chiffres en euros, devrait se donner pour objectif de l'\u00eatre autant avec les chiffres en carbone ! 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juin, on peut faire une universit\u00e9 d'\u00e9t\u00e9 fin juin, non mais). L'\u00e9v\u00e9nement est ouvert \u00e0 tou(te)s, comme l'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re.\n\nLe programme - en cours de finalisation - n'est pas encore en ligne, mais pour celles et ceux qui nous font confiance il est d\u00e9j\u00e0 possible de s'inscrire sur le site. L'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, le temps fort avait \u00e9t\u00e9 la pr\u00e9sentation du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise, et c'est l\u00e0 que nous avions entendu en s\u00e9ance tous les repr\u00e9sentants des partenaires sociaux affirmer leur accord avec une planification de l'\u00e9conomie. \n\nIl n'est pas exclu que cela ait jou\u00e9 un petit r\u00f4le dans la reprise de ce concept pendant la campagne... et d\u00e9sormais dans les discours du chef de l'Etat (le suspense ne devrait plus durer tr\u00e8s longtemps pour voir si ca se traduit dans l'organisation gouvernementale et, surtout, de la haute administration.\n\nEn miroir aux annonces de Macron sur le r\u00f4le des collectivit\u00e9s locales et de la planification \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, nous parlerons... de collectivit\u00e9s locales et d'\u00e9nergie :). Manquerons nous de gaz - et donc possiblement d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 - l'hiver prochain ? Comment bien r\u00e9partir les r\u00f4les entre \u00e9chelons locaux et \u00e9chelon national - et au-dessus - pour mener la \"transition\" ? Comment se mettre rapidement en ordre de bataille pour \"l'adaptation\" qui devient une n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 chaque jour plus urgente ?\n\nCe temps fort de la vie de la communaut\u00e9 shiftienne avait attir\u00e9 plus de mille personnes pour sa premi\u00e8re \u00e9dition. C'est peu compar\u00e9 \u00e0 67 millions de fran\u00e7ais(es), mais significatif dans l'\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me des associations contribuant au d\u00e9bat environnemental. Alors pour discuter de \"quoi faire\" rendez-vous \u00e0 Lyon dans un gros mois !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6931908476658978816,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6931908477317476353,urn:li:activity:6931908477317476353,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 36, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6931908477317476353,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6931908477317476353,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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la normale\", et si la tendance des \"pr\u00e9visions\" saisonni\u00e8res est exacte cela ne devrait malheureusement pas s'arranger cet \u00e9t\u00e9, avec une \u00e9volution qui devrait \u00eatre \u00e0 la fois plus chaude et plus s\u00e8che que \"la normale\" : https://lnkd.in/ecXf_CW9 \n\nMais qu'est-ce que la normale quand le climat est en train de d\u00e9river en permanence ? 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Nous devons tout faire pour les inciter \u00e0 baisser leurs \u00e9missions, et comme nous ne pouvons pas envoyer les chars et les avions chez tout le monde pour les obliger, la meilleure arme qu'il nous reste est de commencer \u00e0 agir chez nous (de toute fa\u00e7on on va devoir le faire pour cause d'approvisionnement p\u00e9trolier et gazier d\u00e9clinant) en donnant un exemple que d'autres voudront suivre. 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EDITED : ENGLISH, SPANISH & GERMAN SUBTILES Contact : agros.bifurquent@protonmail.com Instagram : @bifurquons Parce que ce qui compte c'est ce qui se passera..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Appel \u00e0 d\u00e9serter - Remise des dipl\u00f4mes AgroParisTech 2022" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6931169977207033856,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 1883, "length": 25, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:14821160", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:14821160", "name": "Pour un r\u00e9veil \u00e9cologique", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1611686863763?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=qrHOF5RpuS_vrJL5PmyugmHNV56dITYGx3JmkIPTt4g", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1611686863763?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=9MqucCzrGpzwgtmRInipDsUpXsfk0yJpREzKw7MirWE", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1611686863763?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=_fVG3UT8ftdBL8aHh4f1xrtRdf7CKNtYKbKvCEfYLUE", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D0BAQGPFTxlgBwqsg/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "pour-un-reveil-ecologique", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:14821160", "trackingId": "mLxOjwwwRL+ApFWShdqb2Q==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Apr\u00e8s le discours d'un jeune dipl\u00f4m\u00e9 de Centrale Nantes qui avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait un peu de bruit (https://lnkd.in/eAyiq7At), c'est au tour d'un groupe de jeunes dipl\u00f4m\u00e9s d'AgroParisTech de dire son malaise \u00e0 l'id\u00e9e de se mettre au service d'un projet dans lequel ils ne se reconnaissent pas.\n\nUne fois ce constat pos\u00e9 arrive in\u00e9vitablement la question suivante : que faire ? Et si le syst\u00e8me doit \u00eatre chang\u00e9, faut-il entrer dans les organisations existantes pour les modifier de l'int\u00e9rieur, ou \"d\u00e9serter\", c'est \u00e0 dire s'y opposer de l'ext\u00e9rieur ?\n\nLa bonne r\u00e9ponse emprunte probablement aux deux. En esp\u00e9rant que cela sera utile, voici quelques constats issus de ma modeste exp\u00e9rience :\n\n- \"de l'int\u00e9rieur\", un jeune fra\u00eechement dipl\u00f4m\u00e9 a un pouvoir plus que r\u00e9duit pour \"tout changer\". Le pouvoir dans l'entreprise est exerc\u00e9 par des cadres qui ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 de l'exp\u00e9rience (au moins 10 ans et souvent 20 \u00e0 30). Et la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 s'acquiert surtout par des exp\u00e9riences de gestion op\u00e9rationnelle (patron(ne) d'une unit\u00e9 de production, responsable d'une marque, d'une zone, d'un centre de R&D, etc), et rarement par des exp\u00e9riences fonctionnelles comme la RSE, la seule exception \u00e9tant celle de la personne en charge des finances... c'est \u00e0 dire de l'indicateur conventionnel qui pose justement probl\u00e8me. Dit autrement, en entreprise on ne peut \u00eatre cr\u00e9dible pour changer les choses de l'int\u00e9rieur qu'une fois que l'on a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 perp\u00e9tuer la situation \u00e0 probl\u00e8me telle qu'elle est. Probl\u00e8me !\n\n- par contre, dire que l'on ne veut pas aller dans une entreprise qui ne fait pas d'efforts, ou la quitter rapidement apr\u00e8s y \u00eatre entr\u00e9 pour cette raison, a de l'impact si ce mouvement se g\u00e9n\u00e9ralise. J'ai observ\u00e9 plusieurs fois des dirigeants d'entreprise impulser des \"grandes manoeuvres\" en constatant que leur entreprise perdait rapidement en attractivit\u00e9 aupr\u00e8s des jeunes. Le manifeste Pour un r\u00e9veil \u00e9cologique oeuvre en ce sens.\n\n- la bonne combinaison de l'exp\u00e9rience et de l'action vient en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de personnes plus \u00e2g\u00e9es - donc vues comme plus cr\u00e9dibles - qui ont compris de l'int\u00e9rieur le fonctionnement, connaissent les codes, puis se sont mises \"\u00e0 l'ext\u00e9rieur\" pour bousculer les acteurs. Cela donne des entit\u00e9s qui d'entr\u00e9e de jeu se positionnent pour \"changer les choses\" (une tentative de recension existe l\u00e0 : https://shiftyourjob.org/ ). A ce moment la bonne question est de savoir \u00e9valuer la le potentiel de contribution de l'entreprise en question. La cl\u00e9 de la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 cette question s'appelle la connaissance fine du probl\u00e8me \u00e0 r\u00e9soudre.\n\n- les aventures individuelles \"dehors\" (devenir peintre ou apiculteur) aident le reste de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 bouger dans le bon sens si elles sont reproductibles \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle ou essentielles dans l'ensemble. Pionniers et marginaux ne sont pas exactement la m\u00eame chose !\n\n\"D\u00e9serter\" au sens de \"ne plus entendre parler du probl\u00e8me\" n'est h\u00e9las pas possible. Qu'on le veuille ou pas, nous sommes tou(te)s dedans !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6931169977207033856,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6931169978029121536,urn:li:activity:6931169978029121536,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 84, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6931169978029121536,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6931169978029121536,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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enfant sur quatre dans le monde vivra (comment s'il ne pousse rien ?) dans une r\u00e9gion avec une p\u00e9nurie extr\u00eame d'eau.\n\nComme on peut le voir sur la carte ci-dessous, il n'y a pas que les pays \"\u00e9mergents\" - au premier chef l'Inde et son milliard d'habitants - qui sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 concern\u00e9s par le probl\u00e8me, qui, de 2020 \u00e0 2022 - sans m\u00eame parler d'avenir - a touch\u00e9 l'Europe, les USA, et la Chine. 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Sachant que, sans surprise, le rapport rappelle que la s\u00e9cheresse est un d\u00e9terminant direct - p\u00e9nurie alimentaire - ou indirect - violences politiques ou militaires qui d\u00e9coulent de la situation de stress - de migrations, il est probable que nous n'ayons pas fini de discuter de l'accueil ou pas, chez nous, de personnes venant de \"plus au sud\"...\n\nComme pour beaucoup de risques, s'en occuper am\u00e9liore l'avenir par rapport au fait de ne pas s'en occuper. 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6930517090021879809,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Sous nos latitudes, quand il fait chaud, il fait sec. C'est une mauvaise nouvelle pour la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation, mais une bonne nouvelle pour nos organismes. En effet, un air tr\u00e8s chaud mais sec emp\u00eache notre organisme de se refroidir par contact avec l'air, mais pas de se refroidir par \u00e9vaporation la sueur. \n\nIl en va tout autrement quand l'air est chaud et humide. A ce moment \u00e9vacuer de la chaleur par transpiration devient de plus en plus difficile. Avec un air satur\u00e9 d'humidit\u00e9 (donc rendant totalement impossible de transpirer), il y a un risque mortel au bout de quelques heures si la temp\u00e9rature de l'air d\u00e9passe 35 \u00b0C.\n\nCes conditions vont appara\u00eetre de plus en plus souvent dans le monde au fur et \u00e0 mesure que la d\u00e9rive climatique s'accentuera. 50 \u00b0C au Pakistan en avril, c'est avec une temp\u00e9rature plan\u00e9taire qui a \"juste\" augment\u00e9 de 1,1\u00b0C. \n\nL'\u00e2ge de la retraite nous pr\u00e9occupe beaucoup actuellement. Les retrait\u00e9s d'aujourd'hui - et plus encore les \u00e9lus qui leur parlent puisque les \u00e9lecteurs sont avant tout des gens \u00e2g\u00e9s - r\u00e9alisent-ils que, pour les trentenaires d'aujourd'hui, si nous continuons \u00e0 nous occuper avant tout de l'\u00e2ge de la retraite avant de nous occuper des limites plan\u00e9taires, 2060 correspond \u00e0 un monde qui sera profond\u00e9ment boulevers\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 aujourd'hui, au point que cette retraite, si elle a lieu, ne se d\u00e9roulerait pas vraiment dans les conditions actuelles ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6930517090021879809,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6930517090588110851,urn:li:activity:6930517090588110851,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 64, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Crise des approvisionnements et du climat : faut-il augmenter les exigences de reporting carbone pour les entreprises ? | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6930417248197095425,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "De trop nombreuses entreprises consid\u00e8rent encore que de s'occuper des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre a pour premier objectif de \"faire joli\" sur les rapports annuels. C'est du reste pour cette raison que l'une des trois \"revendications\" que j'ai formul\u00e9es lorsque j'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 re\u00e7u par notre pr\u00e9sident r\u00e9\u00e9lu (il y a une semaine : https://lnkd.in/eg2dBAHU) \u00e9tait de renforcer les obligations pour les entreprises. Ces derni\u00e8res - dont Carbone 4 fait partie - ne tiennent pas des comptes - en euros - juste parce que \"ca fait joli\". Elles le font parce qu'il y a des sanctions p\u00e9nales \u00e0 ne pas le faire, alors que sur le carbone - pourtant porteur d'enjeux au moins aussi consid\u00e9rables que de gruger son banquier ou son client - il n'y en a aucune.\n\nDans le contexte de \"d\u00e9mondialisation accidentielle\"que le covid et la guerre en Ukraine nous am\u00e8nent (car ces deux \u00e9pisodes rendent plus difficiles de se procurer certaines denr\u00e9es qui ne sont pas produites sur notre sol), on pourrait se dire que l'urgence n'est pas de renforcer les exigences de reporting carbone pour les entreprises. Tout le rebours.\n\nCertes cet article de Carbone 4 est un plaidoyer pro domo (ca nous arrive aussi :) ). Mais il rappelle que nous ne construirons pas une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 nouvelle, comme y aspirent les \u00e9tudiants d'AgroParisTech qui viennent de se faire remarquer avec un discours \"non conventionnel\" (https://lnkd.in/ed3q9AkH ), avec la boite \u00e0 outils du monde actuel.\n\nUne fois que l'on a dit qu'il fallait tout changer, nous n'avons fait que le plus facile : le plus difficile n'est pas de d\u00e9crire ce qui ne doit plus \u00eatre, mais de d\u00e9crire ce qui devrait \u00eatre, et de proposer les outils et m\u00e9thodes qui permettent d'y aller au bon rythme (qui sera \"d'enfer\") avec la contribution de tout le monde ou presque.\n\nEvidemment cet article s'inscrit dans un cadre de pens\u00e9e o\u00f9 il reste des entreprises - c'est \u00e0 dire des activit\u00e9s productives priv\u00e9es - dans un monde qui se d\u00e9carbone. Il appartient normalement \u00e0 celles et ceux qui pensent qu'il n'en faut plus du tout de proposer une construction alternative r\u00e9aliste (rappelons que l'apiculteur qu'un des \u00e9tudiants de l'agro se propose d'\u00eatre est une activit\u00e9 productive priv\u00e9e, et qu'il ne faut pas confondre multinationales et \"toutes les entreprises\" !).\n\nDans un monde o\u00f9 il reste des entreprises, l'urgence est donc de les forcer \u00e0 \"bien faire les choses\". Nous esp\u00e9rons que la lecture de cet article alimentera utilement ce d\u00e9bat... urgent." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6930417248197095425,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6930417249023369216,urn:li:activity:6930417249023369216,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 21, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6930417249023369216,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6930417249023369216,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7883404802345776143)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "change.org \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Signez la p\u00e9tition by change.org", "actionTarget": "https://www.change.org/p/formation-obligatoire-%C3%A0-la-transition-%C3%A9cologique-pour-le-pr%C3%A9sident-emmanuelmacron-et-le-gouvernement-formation20heures" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Signez la p\u00e9tition" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6930150706330923008,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'\u00e9tait initialement une tribune parue dans le JDD, et c'est devenu une p\u00e9tition. Faut-il mobiliser les foules pour une \"simple\" formation de quelques dizaines de personnes, \u00e0 savoir les membres d'un (futur) gouvernement, \u00e0 la question climatique et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, quand il y a par ailleurs la guerre en Ukraine, la famine dans l'Est de l'Afrique, des pers\u00e9cutions un peu partout dans le monde, la dette qui atteint des sommets et un Etat am\u00e9ricain qui rassure de moins en moins ?\n\nParadoxalement oui : plus le monde devient en apparence incertain, plus il est utile de se raccrocher \u00e0 des certitudes et des choses qui ne changent pas. Et si le monde semble devenir inexplicable et impr\u00e9visible quand on regarde les indicateurs \u00e9conomiques et sociaux, il est malheureusement parfaitement lisible quand on regarde les indicateurs physiques. \n\nOr gouverner, n'est-ce pas pr\u00e9voir, et donc savoir \"lire le monde\" avec la bonne cl\u00e9 de lecture, d\u00e9sormais physique ? \n\nPar ailleurs, un gouvernement ce n'est pas n'importe quel groupe de 20 personnes : dans notre r\u00e9gime pr\u00e9sidentiel en vigueur (o\u00f9 le gouvernement fixe l'agenda du parlement et lui soumet les projets de loi), c'est de fait l'arbitre en dernier ressort de toutes les d\u00e9cisions qui rel\u00e8vent de la sph\u00e8re publique. Il n'est est pas de m\u00eame dans la quasi-totalit\u00e9 des autres d\u00e9mocraties (o\u00f9 le parlement poss\u00e8de plus de pouvoir), mais chez nous ce groupe d'individus tient beaucoup de r\u00eanes du pouvoir pendant l'exercice de son mandat.\n\nPour beaucoup de portefeuilles il est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme normal que le/la titulaire du poste sache un peu de quoi on parle : un(e) ministre de la d\u00e9fense est pri\u00e9(e) de savoir ce qu'est un soldat ou un porte avion, ou de l'apprendre tr\u00e8s vite. De m\u00eame, il est de bon ton qu'un(e) ministre de la sant\u00e9 sache pr\u00e9alablement, ou comprenne tr\u00e8s vite, ce qu'est un virus.\n\nA 8 milliards sur terre, il existe une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 physique qui vient d\u00e9sormais tamponner de plus en plus chacun de nos plans pour l'avenir : les limites plan\u00e9taires, en mati\u00e8re d'\u00e9nergie, de mat\u00e9riaux, d'environnement, de biodiversit\u00e9, etc.\n\nComprendre - pour un gouvernement - quels sont les degr\u00e9s de libert\u00e9 que nous avons perdus et ceux qu'il nous reste dans ce monde l\u00e0 est donc devenu essentiel, pour faire des plans qui seront compatibles avec ces limites. Il ne reste que quelques mandats pr\u00e9sidentiels ou l\u00e9gislatifs avant 2050 : nous pouvons chaque ann\u00e9e un peu moins nous permettre le luxe de prendre des d\u00e9cisions sur lesquelles il faudrait revenir ensuite parce qu'elles ne sont pas en accord avec le cadre physique.\n\nEnfin l'exp\u00e9rience de la Convention Citoyenne pour le Climat a prouv\u00e9 une chose : la formation aux enjeux (et il s'agit bien d'une formation, pas d'une \"sensibilisation\") fait passer tout(e) citoyen(ne) de \"sensibilis\u00e9 mais pas n\u00e9cessairement acteur\" \u00e0 \"ayant envie d'agir\". \n\nDonc ce n'est que 20 personnes. Et ce n'est que 20 heures. Mais l'effet de levier est potentiellement consid\u00e9rable." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6930150706330923008,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6930150707132022784,urn:li:activity:6930150707132022784,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 194, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6930150707132022784,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6930150707132022784,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"editableAccessibilityText": true, "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "accessibilityText": "chart, line chart" } ], "showTemplateCta": false } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6929482929358135296,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Europe veut se passer du p\u00e9trole russe (https://lnkd.in/dSMiBXA4 ). Facile ?\n\nLa Russie produit actuellement un peu plus de 10 millions de barils par jour de p\u00e9trole et condensats (https://lnkd.in/dHgeypb2 ) sur une plan\u00e8te qui en produit 80 au total (graphique ci-dessous). De l\u00e0 une premi\u00e8re certitude : sauf \u00e0 se passer instantan\u00e9ment de 12,5% du p\u00e9trole mondial (ce qui s'est \u00e0 peu de choses pr\u00e8s produit involontairement en 2020, avec comme contrepartie 5% de r\u00e9cession), le monde ne fera pas instantan\u00e9ment sans le p\u00e9trole russe. \n\nAttendons que la production d'or noir croisse, alors ! (et au Diable le climat). Mais on notera sur le m\u00eame graphique que, depuis 2016, la production mondiale n'augmentait plus beaucoup, et il y avait m\u00eame une l\u00e9g\u00e8re d\u00e9crue amorc\u00e9e avant le covid, puisque le pic \u00e0 date de cette production mondiale est en novembre 2018. \n\nAllons ailleurs que chez Poutine alors ! Si nous faisons cela pour \"ass\u00e9cher\" ses finances, il faut \u00e9videmment \u00eatre sur que le p\u00e9trole en question ne trouvera pas preneur du tout, sinon la Russie sera toujours autant financ\u00e9e, mais juste pas par les m\u00eames. En effet, dans un monde qui est d\u00e9j\u00e0 un peu \u00e0 la peine pour s'approvisionner, si ce n'est pas nous qui prenons le p\u00e9trole russe, il est probable qu'il finira assez vite par trouver preneur ailleurs, aux goulets d'\u00e9tranglement logistiques - rarement \u00e9ternels - pr\u00e8s.\n\nEn 2020, l'Europe a consomm\u00e9... un peu plus de 10 millions de barils par jour de p\u00e9trole et produits p\u00e9troliers, soit l'\u00e9quivalent de la production de la Russie. Cette derni\u00e8re exporte environ les 2/3 de sa production (et consomme le tiers restant). L'Europe repr\u00e9sentait 50% des exportations russes de p\u00e9trole brut et de produits p\u00e9troliers en 2020, qui permettent donc environ un tiers de notre consommation.\n\nQuestion : o\u00f9 trouver un peu plus de 3 millions de barils par jour de p\u00e9trole chez des producteurs qui auraient la production (ou la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'avoir) et pas de clients ? La r\u00e9ponse est... \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s nulle part, sauf \u00e0 jouer \u00e0 un jeu de taquin : un client du p\u00e9trole (au hasard la Chine) prend \u00e0 la Russie un p\u00e9trole qu'avant elle prenait ailleurs et du coup le \"ailleurs\" peut vendre \u00e0 l'Europe. \n\nIncidemment le \"ailleurs\" est souvent d\u00e9j\u00e0 en d\u00e9clin : c'est le cas de l'ensemble de l'Afrique, de l'ensemble de l'Am\u00e9rique du sud, de l'ensemble de l'Europe, de l'ensemble de l'Asie, du Mexique... 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6929013727648227328,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Elle est apparue dans l'entre-deux tours : la \"planification \u00e9cologique\". Quesse\u00e7a ? Un sujet de dissertation pour le bac :) ?\n\nA d\u00e9faut d'avoir une d\u00e9finition normative, cette expression m'a au moins inspir\u00e9 un commentaire de quelques minutes hier matin sur RTL, o\u00f9 j'ai tent\u00e9 ma propre d\u00e9finition de la chose : la \"planification \u00e9cologique\", ce serait notamment de mettre les activit\u00e9s humaines en harmonie avec les limites plan\u00e9taires (sur le climat, la biodiversit\u00e9, l'eau, les ressources, le cycle de l'azote, etc), ce qui n'est pas du tout le cas actuellement (et le d\u00e9passement des limites ne peut \u00eatre que transitoire...).\n\nDans les obstacles \u00e0 cette \u00e9volution il y a la question de la mise en coh\u00e9rence au niveau des politiques nationales, mais aussi au niveau des politiques europ\u00e9ennes. Partout nous avons pris l'habitude du \"en m\u00eame temps\" parce que le monde semblait sans limite, et il va nous falloir apprendre \u00e0 raisonner autrement parce que dans le monde fini la question de l'ordre des priorit\u00e9s se posera plus fortement.\n\nApprendre \u00e0 raisonner autrement cela demande... de la formation. Ceci a un lien avec une autre sortie m\u00e9diatique du moment : la tribune du JDD qui demande \u00e0 ce que les premiers \u00e0 avoir une formation pour mieux saisir les r\u00e9alit\u00e9s physiques du monde soient ceux qui revendiquent la conduite des affaires publiques, \u00e0 savoir les membres de notre gouvernement : https://lnkd.in/e2yErtAZ\n\nOn exige bien un \"certificat d'aptitude\" pour les m\u00e9decins ou les avocats. Or \u00eatre nomm\u00e9 ministre n'est pas \u00e9quivalent \u00e0 r\u00e9ussir un test de connaissances. 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financements, les m\u00eames projets qui auront, pour la plupart d\u2019entre eux, des cons\u00e9quences irr\u00e9versibles sur une ou plusieurs dizaines d\u2019ann\u00e9es sont invariablement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s. (...) Certaines d\u00e9cisions sont m\u00eame des r\u00e9gressions. (...)\"\n\nQui ose ainsi \u00e9crire que l'action publique post covid n'est pas plus compatible avec les limites plan\u00e9taires que celle d'avant ? The Shift Project ? Extinction Rebellion ? Des politiques en campagne pour les l\u00e9gislatives ? L'Affaire du Si\u00e8cle ?\n\nPas du tout, pas du tout, comme chantait Dutronc : une instance administrative, l'Autorit\u00e9 Environnementale, qui vient de rendre son rapport annuel : https://lnkd.in/eRhXSAWF\n\nPour faire simple, cette autorit\u00e9 est charg\u00e9e de rendre un avis public sur \"la qualit\u00e9 des \u00e9valuations et la bonne prise en compte de l\u2019environnement\" pour des projets - d'infrastructure, industriels, d'am\u00e9nagement... - ou des plans qui \"sont au-del\u00e0 d'une certaine taille\", comme aurait dit Fernand Reynaud.\n\nJuger de l'ad\u00e9quation entre les impacts factuels des projets et les m\u00e9thodes qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9es pour \u00e9valuer ces impacts peut sembler technique et anecdotique, mais en fait dire si le thermom\u00e8tre ou le st\u00e9thoscope \u00e9taient les bons instruments \u00e0 utiliser pour juger de l'\u00e9tat du patient est capital, car rien n'est plus facile que de d\u00e9clarer que des projets sont sans impact ennuyeux en utilisant des m\u00e9thodes inappropri\u00e9es ou qui font l'impasse sur une nuisance majeure. \n\nEn 2021 l'Autorit\u00e9 environnementale a rendu 159 avis : 91 sur des projets (1/3 industriels, 1/3 d'am\u00e9nagements urbains et 1/3 d'infrastructures de transports) et 68 sur des plans et programmes (sch\u00e9mas directeurs d\u2019am\u00e9nagement et de gestion de l\u2019eau, plans de gestion des risques d\u2019inondation, plans de protection de l\u2019atmosph\u00e8re, plans de pr\u00e9vention des risques, plans r\u00e9gionaux for\u00eat et bois...).\n\nQuelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments expos\u00e9s au fil des pages :\n- les projets propos\u00e9s pour d\u00e9carboner l'\u00e9nergie (ENR ou hydrog\u00e8ne) ne comportent pas toujours d'analyse probante sur leur contribution \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation (!)\n- \"Dans le domaine des transports, la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique est assez g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement oubli\u00e9e\" (sans prise en compte de l'objectif national de baisse de la consommation d'\u00e9nergie) et \"la contribution des projets \u00e0 l\u2019atteinte de la neutralit\u00e9 carbone n\u2019est\npas d\u00e9montr\u00e9e ; elle pourrait m\u00eame \u00eatre n\u00e9gative\"\n- \"[il y a] une absence de prise en compte au bon niveau des th\u00e9matiques climat et \u00e9nergie (...) dans les contrats de plan \u00c9tat-R\u00e9gion\".\n- Etc...\n\nL\u2019AE \u00e9crit en conclusion que \"les plans et programmes [examin\u00e9s] ne sont pas \u00e0 la hauteur de l\u2019objectif fix\u00e9 dans l\u2019Accord de Paris\". Arriver \u00e0 une situation o\u00f9 chaque projet local sera raccord avec les limites plan\u00e9taires demandera un effort majeur de coh\u00e9rence et un effort non moins majeur de formation." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6928649403155034112,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6928649404019044352,urn:li:activity:6928649404019044352,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 51, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6928649404019044352,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6928649404019044352,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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Jancovici : Comment l'agriculture devrait envisager sa transformation by terre-net.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.terre-net.fr/actualite-agricole/economie-social/article/interview-de-jean-marc-jancovici-sur-comment-l-agriculture-devrait-envisager-sa-transformation-202-207820.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "[Interview] \u00c9nergie et climat J.-M. Jancovici : Comment l'agriculture devrait envisager sa transformation" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6928236322486693888,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il faut que je remonte \u00e0 3 g\u00e9n\u00e9rations pour trouver un agriculteur dans mes ascendants directs. On pourrait donc penser que ma l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 \u00e0 m'exprimer sur l'agriculture est discutable :).\n\nJe me suis n\u00e9anmoins risqu\u00e9 \u00e0 l'exercice pour le site d'informations pour la profession Terre-Net, en faisant quelques constats et en proposant quelques conclusions et directions dans lesquelles partir si l'on veut que ce secteur soit \u00e0 la fois plus r\u00e9silient face \u00e0 un changement climatique amplifi\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 maintenant (de mani\u00e8re inexorable h\u00e9las) et plus \"doux\" pour l'environnement.\n\nRappelons que l'agriculture c'\u00e9tait 2/3 de la population active avant la r\u00e9volution industrielle. Comme l'argent ne paye que des hommes (et des femmes !), cela signifie que, peu ou prou, l'agriculture repr\u00e9sentait entre la moiti\u00e9 et les deux tiers du PIB de l'\u00e9poque, et donc, toujours pour les m\u00eames raisons, consommait aussi entre la moiti\u00e9 et les deux tiers du \"budget des m\u00e9nages\". \n\nAujourd'hui, les tickets de caisse pay\u00e9s au distributeur - 90% de nos achats alimentaires directs - ou aux \"petits commerces (y compris march\u00e9s), plus les additions pay\u00e9es \u00e0 la \"restauration hors domicile\" (restaurants y compris fast food, restauration scolaire et en entreprise, h\u00f4pital - le moins possible \u00e9videmment, etc) repr\u00e9sentent environ 10% du budget des m\u00e9nages. \n\nMais l'essentiel de cette d\u00e9pense finance des emplois qui ne sont que des \"interm\u00e9diaires\" : caissier(e)s, magasinier(e)s, chauffeurs routiers, salari\u00e9(e)s de l'agroalimentaire, salari\u00e9(e)s des producteurs de mat\u00e9riaux d'emballage ou de camions (un tiers des camions en France transportent quelque chose qui se mange), etc.\n\nLa nourriture elle-m\u00eame repr\u00e9sente donc un cinqui\u00e8me de notre d\u00e9pense alimentaire en moyenne (soit 2% de ce que nous gagnons). Nous avons remplac\u00e9 des individus dans les champs par une arm\u00e9e de machines, situ\u00e9e pour partie dans les exploitations (tracteurs, silos, trayeuses \u00e0 vaches....) et pour l'essentiel hors des champs (usines d'engrais et de phytosanitaires \u00e0 l'amont, camions \u00e0 l'amont et l'aval, machines de l'agroalimentaire, usines pour l'emballage, frigos et cong\u00e9lateurs, etc) qui ont permis une explosion des quantit\u00e9s et un effondrement des prix. Et ce que nous payons est essentiellement les gens qui fabriquent et actionnent ces machines.\n\nLa question que nous devons nous poser est donc la suivante : acceptons nous de d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment augmenter le prix de la nourriture pour produire \"mieux\" et plus durablement ? (et de fait nous aurons moins d'argent pour le reste). Si oui, il est possible de revisiter beaucoup de choses dans l'organisation actuelle du secteur. Si non, la mauvaise nouvelle est que les limites plan\u00e9taires finiront de toute fa\u00e7on par produire le m\u00eame effet, mais dans un contexte non g\u00e9r\u00e9, et avec des cons\u00e9quences n\u00e9gatives qui seront plus fortes.\n\nEncore une urgence et un sujet plus important que le m\u00e9taverse (qui ne fera pas pleuvoir) \u00e0 traiter dans le cadre du nouveau mandat !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6928236322486693888,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6928236323405221888,urn:li:activity:6928236323405221888,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 138, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6928236323405221888,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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l'Elys\u00e9e, votre serviteur a fait un tr\u00e8s bref compte rendu au micro de France Info. \n\nCette r\u00e9union a \u00e9videmment une arri\u00e8re pens\u00e9e \u00e9lectorale. Mais en d\u00e9mocratie, il n'y a rien d'anormal \u00e0 cela : s'il y a une d\u00e9mocratie il y a des \u00e9lections, et s'il y a des \u00e9lections les personnes qui candidatent cherchent \u00e0 se faire remarquer sur des points positifs, c'est la r\u00e8gle du jeu. Du point de vue du dirigeant d'association que je suis, toutes les opportunit\u00e9s sont bonnes \u00e0 prendre, et il faut les saisir quand elles se pr\u00e9sentent.\n\nCette r\u00e9union n'avais pas d'ordre du jour communiqu\u00e9 \u00e0 l'avance (l'invitation disait que le pr\u00e9sident voulait \"\u00e9changer\"). A chaque participant(e) - nous \u00e9tions une dizaine - revenait donc le choix de son terrain de jeu et de son angle d'approche, sachant que notre interlocuteur du jour ne nous a pas fait de long discours - ce qui est plut\u00f4t une bonne chose puisque cela laisse plus de temps pour les d\u00e9veloppements des personnes invit\u00e9es.\n\nPour ma part j'ai donc choisi de faire des suggestions un peu concr\u00e8tes, apr\u00e8s avoir rappel\u00e9 deux fois le chiffre 5 :\n- il n'y aura que 5 mandats pr\u00e9sidentiels pleins avant 2050 (\u00e0 supposer que l'on soit toujours en d\u00e9mocratie en 2042...)\n- il faut baisser l'empreinte carbone de la France de 5% par an soit 25% sur le prochain mandat.\n\nEn d\u00e9but de quinquennat, la question se pose de savoir si il faut porter des revendications qui concernent plut\u00f4t la mani\u00e8re de travailler, ou plut\u00f4t des mesures sectorielles pr\u00e9cises. \n\nC'est la premi\u00e8re option qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 la mienne. Cette \"mani\u00e8re de travailler\" conditionne les bonnes d\u00e9cisions et leur mise en oeuvre par le monde politique et l'administration. Elle doit imp\u00e9rativement s'am\u00e9liorer sur plusieurs points :\n- la transversalit\u00e9 au sein de l'action gouvernementale (la question climatique est une question transverse) -> modalit\u00e9s de gestion de la \"planification \u00e9cologique\" par le premier ministre. \n- la formation des gens qui devront faire. Parlant au premier magistrat j'ai donc parl\u00e9 de la formation des fonctionnaires en exercice aux enjeux \u00e9nergie climat\n- la compr\u00e9hension de la \"distance au probl\u00e8me\" par les entreprises : j'ai donc parl\u00e9 des obligations de comptabilit\u00e9 carbone pour ces derni\u00e8res.\n\nNotre interlocuteur du jour nous a affirm\u00e9 que son intention \u00e9tait d'avancer rapidement \u00e0 court terme (ce qu'il peut faire par d\u00e9crets ou circulaires sur des domaines - comme par exemple la formation des fonctionnaires - qui ne demandent m\u00eame pas un passage au Parlement). On ne va donc pas tarder \u00e0 savoir ce qu'il en est !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6927926942453137408,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6927926943145189376,urn:li:activity:6927926943145189376,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 247, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6927926943145189376,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6927926943145189376,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7183864427578042306)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Australie : le climat, non-sujet de la campagne \u00e9lectorale by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/editos-analyses/australie-le-climat-non-sujet-de-la-campagne-electorale-1404451" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Australie : le climat, non-sujet de la campagne \u00e9lectorale" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6927605105147961344,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La for\u00eat y brule. Les inondations y sont de plus en plus d\u00e9vastatrices. La Grande Barri\u00e8re de Corail y meurt. Et pourtant la campagne \u00e9lectorale qui a lieu actuellement en Australie semble aussi peu richement dot\u00e9e en climat que l'\u00e9tait la n\u00f4tre il y a quelques semaines.\n\nUne fois ce constat fait, il serait int\u00e9ressant de comprendre pourquoi. L'Australie poss\u00e8de incontestablement une industrie extractive de combustibles fossiles qui \"p\u00e8se\" dans l'\u00e9conomie nationale. Ce pays est le 3\u00e8 producteur mondial de charbon, \u00e0 \u00e9galit\u00e9 avec l'Inde, et surtout le premier exportateur mondial (une moiti\u00e9 environ est du charbon m\u00e9tallurgique, utilis\u00e9 pour alimenter les hauts fourneaux pour faire de l'acier).\n\nEn 2020, il \u00e9tait aussi le premier exportateur mondial de gaz naturel liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9 (GNL), \u00e0 parit\u00e9 avec le Qatar, pour un total de 106 milliards de m3 dans l'ann\u00e9e, sachant que les Russes \u00e9taient cette ann\u00e9e l\u00e0 \u00e0 200 (donn\u00e9es BP Statistical Review).\n\nMais cette situation n'explique pas tout, puisque l'Hexagone, qui ne poss\u00e8de pas d'activit\u00e9s extractives sur son sol, ne s'est pas beaucoup plus souci\u00e9e de la question r\u00e9cemment. Par ailleurs, nous avons aussi eu affaire r\u00e9cemment \u00e0 des s\u00e9cheresses importantes (avec d\u00e9p\u00e9rissement de for\u00eats ou de cultures), des inondations sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent dans le nord de l'Europe, des canicules... et rien de tout cela n'infl\u00e9chit la trajectoire \u00e0 bref d\u00e9lai, ni les priorit\u00e9s politiques o\u00f9 la 5G et la production de voitures restent des sujets plus \"importants\" que l'adaptation au changement climatique ou la fin du gaz dans le chauffage.\n\nChez eux comme chez nous, la r\u00e9ponse est probablement \u00e0 aller chercher du c\u00f4t\u00e9 du \"mode de vie\". L'incendie chez le voisin c'est tr\u00e8s triste, mais force est de constater qu'il ne modifie pas vite notre envie de monter en voiture, de changer la t\u00e9l\u00e9, de nous acheter un r\u00f4ti ou de faire les soldes.\n\nChez les australiens comme chez nous, il faudra un plan organis\u00e9 pour sortir de cette situation. Apr\u00e8s le covid nous n'avons pas mis en route la d\u00e9carbonation acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e alors que c'\u00e9tait le moment le plus facile pour le faire, faute de plan. Tant que la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 australienne n'aura pas un groupe organis\u00e9 pour proposer un plan organis\u00e9, il est h\u00e9las \u00e0 craindre que les d\u00e9bats \u00e9lectoraux restent d\u00e9cevants sur la question. 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Jean-Marc Jancovici et Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Mouhot on youtube.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4aeTvN0KIk" }, "description": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Soir\u00e9e d\u00e9bat organis\u00e9e par les Groupes Bibliques Universitaires (www.gbu.fr) et A Rocha France (www.arocha.fr). Mod\u00e9ration de la soir\u00e9e : Joseph Gotte Jean-Marc JANCOVICI est ing\u00e9nieur de l\u2019Ecole polytechnique, consultant et sp\u00e9cialiste de l\u2019\u00e9nergie..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Comment rendre acceptable la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique ? Jean-Marc Jancovici et Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Mouhot" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6927270587929128960,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 97, "length": 20, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean-Francois", "lastName": "Mouhot", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAhjZx0BjfSjIhpqMapuwVZE1nvSw23gz9c", "occupation": "Directeur Association A Rocha France", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:140732189", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAAhjZx0BjfSjIhpqMapuwVZE1nvSw23gz9c", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1650916219115?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=yG_iL1U_1tGAmhsXKn-s_dkvhvg3Ow6T8IwQKYRfQRs", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1650916219115?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=US7IeUa-BavgqqgVZhk_OQr3_9c7mAiex-ZT8rb62Bo", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 350 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C5616AQHuqFzmjND2tw/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_" } }, "publicIdentifier": "jean-francois-mouhot-2a516a3b", "trackingId": "lrH7z7SsTlCfdO6cRZrFFA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "La sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et la religion : amies ou ennemies ? C'\u00e9tait le th\u00e8me d'un \u00e9change entre Jean-Francois Mouhot, directeur de l'association A-Rocha France (https://lnkd.in/eBiDnk2y ), une organisation chr\u00e9tienne internationale de conservation de la nature, et auteur d'un livre intitul\u00e9 \"Des esclaves \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques\" (https://lnkd.in/ePxHvyie ), et votre serviteur.\n\nComme je l'ai pr\u00e9cis\u00e9 en ouverture de mon propos introductif, ma fr\u00e9quentation des lieux de culte s'est promen\u00e9e quelque part entre faible et nulle depuis ma naissance (je suis un agnostique revendiqu\u00e9). Mais j'ai trouv\u00e9 tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressant de pouvoir discuter avec un repr\u00e9sentant de la sph\u00e8re chr\u00e9tienne de la place de la religion - ou plus exactement d'une religion, car il a \u00e9t\u00e9 peu question d'islam ou de bouddhisme dans l'\u00e9change - dans le d\u00e9bat sur la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique - donc en fait la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 au sens large - qui monte actuellement.\n\nEn effet, les pr\u00e9ceptes chr\u00e9tiens ont historiquement fait une large place aux invitations \u00e0 se contenter de peu, qu'il s'agisse du voeu de pauvret\u00e9 des pr\u00eatres, ou des ressorts de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de consommation qui tombent pour beaucoup dans les p\u00e9ch\u00e9s capitaux (la gourmandise, la luxure, l'envie ou la paresse par exemple). Du coup, qu'est-ce qui emp\u00eacherait les chr\u00e9tiens de se faire d'ardents d\u00e9fenseurs de l'environnement ?\n\nLa fameuse phrase de Staline \"le Pape combien de divisions\" \u00e9tait peut-\u00eatre de mise dans une vision du monde bas\u00e9e sur les rapports de force militaire, mais lorsqu'il s'agit d'entra\u00eener la population sur le terrain des valeurs, il faut se rappeler que l'Eglise catholique revendique 1,3 milliards de fid\u00e8les dans le monde. Si sa parole devient sinc\u00e8rement verte, ca changera peut-\u00eatre un peu la face du monde." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6927270587929128960,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6927270589099331586,urn:li:activity:6927270589099331586,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 61, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6927270589099331586,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6927270589099331586,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 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"showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Accueil" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6926792488342962176,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Normalement le dictionnaire est bien fait : les aires marines prot\u00e9g\u00e9es sont... prot\u00e9g\u00e9es. Quel est le principe sur le papier ? Il s'agit de d\u00e9limiter des zones c\u00f4ti\u00e8res (\u00e0 moins de 200 miles des c\u00f4tes, car au-del\u00e0 l'oc\u00e9an n'appartient plus \u00e0 personne en particulier, et donc aucun pays ne peut y cr\u00e9er une zone d'exclusion de bateaux ou d'activit\u00e9s) au sein desquelles la vie marine est pr\u00e9serv\u00e9e des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements de la p\u00eache - et d'autres activit\u00e9s de \"consommation\" de la nature - pour permettre aux esp\u00e8ces - et notamment les poissons - de se reproduire.\n\nCette mesure est donc destin\u00e9e \u00e0 pr\u00e9server les stocks de poisson, et les premiers partisans de la mesure devraient \u00eatre les p\u00eacheurs eux-m\u00eames. En effet, les poissons \u00e9tant mobiles, s'il redeviennent abondants au sein des ces aires parce qu'ils peuvent facilement s'y reproduire et grandir, ils se d\u00e9placeront ensuite en dehors de l'aire prot\u00e9g\u00e9e, et permettront ainsi une reconstitution ou un maintien \u00e0 niveau des stocks \"ailleurs\". \n\nL'existence de ces aires, pourvu qu'elles soient respect\u00e9es, est donc un moyen d'augmenter ou de faire durer les pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements par la p\u00eache. Rappelons que, pour l'oc\u00e9an dans son ensemble, ces derniers d\u00e9clinent depuis 1995 (ca fait donc presque 30 ans que le maximum de la p\u00eache en mer a \u00e9t\u00e9 pass\u00e9). Par ailleurs la p\u00eache vient s'ajouter au r\u00e9chauffement climatique, \u00e0 l'acidification de l'eau (\u00e0 cause du CO2 \u00e9mis par les activit\u00e9s humaines qui est dissous pour partie dans l'oc\u00e9an), et \u00e0 la pollution. Les esp\u00e8ces marines ne sont donc pas vraiment \u00e0 la f\u00eate.\n\nEn th\u00e9orie, ces aires sont donc une bonne id\u00e9e. Sauf que :\n\n- un article publi\u00e9 dans Science et qui porte sur 727 aires marines prot\u00e9g\u00e9es situ\u00e9es dans les eaux europ\u00e9ennes montre que 59% d'entre elles font l'objet d'un chalutage commercial, et que l'intensit\u00e9 de ce chalutage y est 1,4 fois plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que dans les aires non prot\u00e9g\u00e9es (!) : https://lnkd.in/eQC8AR7v (abstract en libre acc\u00e8s)\n\n- un article publi\u00e9 dans \"Frontiers in Marine Sciences\" et qui porte sur 510 aires marines prot\u00e9g\u00e9es, repr\u00e9sentant 86% de la surface des 1945 aires marines prot\u00e9g\u00e9es situ\u00e9es dans les eaux europ\u00e9ennes (EU + UK), montre que ces derni\u00e8res sont tr\u00e8s souvent p\u00each\u00e9es avec des engins destructeurs (comme le chalutage de fond) ou op\u00e9rant des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements intensifs : https://lnkd.in/eEckHczY\n\nC'est la raison pour laquelle l'association Bloom, qui milite pour la pr\u00e9servation de la biodiversit\u00e9 marine - et du m\u00eame coup les gens qui en vivent ! - lance une p\u00e9tition pour demander que ces aires marines prot\u00e9g\u00e9es ne fassent pas mentir le dictionnaire. La raison pour laquelle cette p\u00e9tition est lanc\u00e9e maintenant et pas \u00e0 un autre moment est que le parlement europ\u00e9en d\u00e9bat en ce moment du sujet : https://lnkd.in/eK5zmS3Z\n\nL\u00e0 comme ailleurs il faut g\u00e9rer la limite avant qu'elle ne nous g\u00e8re..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6926792488342962176,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6926792489118924800,urn:li:activity:6926792489118924800,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 37, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6926792489118924800,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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de la page d'accueil du site du Financial Times comporte une rubrique \"climat\" : https://lnkd.in/eqb_ntGU (sauf erreur de ma part ce n'est le cas pour aucun media g\u00e9n\u00e9raliste en France, en tus cas pas ceux pour lesquels je vient de regarder \u00e0 l'instant).\n\nLa bonne nouvelle est donc qu'un des media \u00e9conomiques les plus lus du monde occidental propose, de mani\u00e8re visible, beaucoup d'informations sur le sujet, ce qui donne par construction de l'importance \u00e0 ce dernier.\n\nA l'instant, la premi\u00e8re option propos\u00e9e quand on va sur cette rubrique est un jeu pour essayer de rendre l'\u00e9conomie \"net zero\" en 2050. J'ai \u00e9videmment test\u00e9 le jeu en question, et la mauvaise nouvelle est qu'il est tr\u00e8s facile de gagner (du reste un tiers des personnes qui jouent arrivent sous 1,5\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement en 2100 \u00e0 la fin du jeu).\n\nCertes, il ne faut pas d\u00e9sesp\u00e9rer Billancourt. Mais quand m\u00eame, il n'est pas sur que ce soit un tr\u00e8s bon service \u00e0 rendre aux acteurs du monde \u00e9conomique que de leur laisser croire, m\u00eame \u00e0 travers un jeu, qu'il y a quelques leviers \u00e0 actionner (quasiment tous technologiques soit dit en passant) pour que cette affaire de changement climatique devienne un lointain souvenir qui ne nous causera pas plus de probl\u00e8mes que cela.\n\nIl n'en reste pas moins que tous nos media nationaux - y compris Les Echos - seraient bien inspir\u00e9s d'avoir aussi une rubrique \"climat\" ou \"nature\" en page d'accueil, et plus encore de toujours voir si un article qui \u00e9voque un sujet \"non environnemental\" ne dit pas implicitement quelque chose qui suppose que les limites plan\u00e9taires n'existent pas. Exemple parmi 150 \u00e0 l'instant : cet article du JDD qui parle du \"red\u00e9collage\" des vols vers les USA sans utiliser ni le mot climat ni le mot CO2 : https://lnkd.in/e5VpRV7p \n\nLe jour de la f\u00eate du travail, c'est un bon jour pour s'interroger sur les emplois qu'il faut d\u00e9velopper, ou au contraire diminuer, pour qu'il y ait toujours une humanit\u00e9 au travail sur une plan\u00e8te ayant la meilleure t\u00eate possible dans quelques d\u00e9cennies. Il n'est malheureusement pas assur\u00e9 qu'il y ait beaucoup de couverture presse sous cet angle (en lot de consolation vous pouvez lire ou relire le chapitre \"emploi\" du Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise, qui vient de d\u00e9passer les 50.000 exemplaires vendus en 3 mois, ce qui le range dans la cat\u00e9gorie des \"tr\u00e8s gros succ\u00e8s\" pour un essai : https://lnkd.in/ekk7DZZH).\n\nBon muguet !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6926469492864647168,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6926469494018064384,urn:li:activity:6926469494018064384,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 23, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6926469494018064384,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": 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"Le bulletin m\u00e9t\u00e9o pour ce week-end a annonc\u00e9 \"du beau temps sur l'essentiel du pays\". Nous comprenons donc qu'il va y avoir du soleil, et que cela est une bonne nouvelle puisque \"beau\" est en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral un adjectif positif.\n\nMais, avec la situation actuelle du pays, \"beau\" devrait plut\u00f4t signifier qu'il va pleuvoir. Comme le rappelle la chronique de ce matin sur RTL (https://lnkd.in/exPkQ9vq ), il fait trop sec.\n\nTout d'abord il a moins plu que la normale depuis l'automne dernier. Ensuite ces pluies ont tendance \u00e0 \u00eatre moins \"efficaces\" parce que comportant plus d'\u00e9pisodes intenses, avec beaucoup d'eau tombant en une seule fois, et une partie plus importante de cette eau qui ruisselle alors directement vers les fleuves puis la mer, sans s'infiltrer dans le sol.\n\nEnfin comme le climat est plus chaud, l'\u00e9vaporation est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e, et donc les sols s'ass\u00e8chent plus vite \u00e0 pr\u00e9cipitations \u00e9gales. \n\nCette situation est g\u00e9n\u00e9rale aux moyennes latitudes et ne concerne pas que la France. Tout l'ouest am\u00e9ricain fait face \u00e0 une s\u00e9cheresse qui va de s\u00e9v\u00e8re \u00e0 exceptionnelle (https://lnkd.in/dQVN83A ). Le pourtour m\u00e9diterran\u00e9en connait \u00e9galement des s\u00e9cheresses qui vont croissant, du Maroc (https://lnkd.in/erifgEqQ ) \u00e0 la Turquie (https://lnkd.in/efErGTWs ). On pourrait aussi parler du Br\u00e9sil (https://lnkd.in/esARz-zi ) ou du Chili o\u00f9 une s\u00e9cheresse historique impacte... la production de cuivre (https://lnkd.in/etA3dThv ).\n\nQuestion : la situation va-t-elle \"revenir \u00e0 la normale\" parce que nous sommes dans une mauvaise passe qui va s'estomper avec le temps ? La r\u00e9ponse est h\u00e9las n\u00e9gative : la situation va s'aggraver en tendance, parce que le r\u00e9chauffement climatique va diminuer l'humidit\u00e9 des sols sur une large fraction des terres \u00e9merg\u00e9es. et notamment une tr\u00e8s large fraction des moyennes latitudes (voir carte en commentaire).\n\nAlors que toutes nos activit\u00e9s en d\u00e9pendent, le mot \"climat\" a \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s peu prononc\u00e9 pendant la campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle. Gageons que le mot \"adaptation\", qui peut s'employer pour se pr\u00e9parer au mieux (ce qui sera souvent \"au moins mal\") \u00e0 un climat qui va changer de toute fa\u00e7on, le sera encore moins pendant les l\u00e9gislatives. \n\nPourtant il faut commencer \u00e0 agir sans tarder, parce que les actions \u00e0 mener pour supporter au mieux un climat plus sec demandent de la dur\u00e9e. A d\u00e9faut, l'inflation qui nous pr\u00e9occupe tant actuellement pourrait bien nous sembler un plaisant souvenir. \n\nNB : carte issue de https://lnkd.in/ef8KRH6M" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6926101897258926080,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6926101898215235584,urn:li:activity:6926101898215235584,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 127, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6926101898215235584,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6926101898215235584,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7897138572487402612)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "nytimes.com \u2022 14 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: This Eminent Scientist Says Climate Activists Need to Get Real by nytimes.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/04/25/magazine/vaclav-smil-interview.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "This Eminent Scientist Says Climate Activists Need to Get Real" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6925707669978685440,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Vaclav Smil, un \"penseur de l'\u00e9nergie\" install\u00e9 au Canada (il est d'origine tch\u00e8que), va sortir un nouveau livre. Cela lui vaut une interview du New York Times o\u00f9, au risque de passer pour un vieux ronchon (qu'il est peut-\u00eatre par ailleurs !), il rappelle de mani\u00e8re un peu cash que de se bercer d'illusions en se fixant des objectifs irr\u00e9alistes ne diminue pas les risques que l'on court.\n\nIl est bien connu que l'on trouve toujours \"tr\u00e8s pertinents\" des gens qui pensent.... comme soi :). Exprim\u00e9es certes dans un style diff\u00e9rent, je n'aurais pas fait des r\u00e9ponses tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rentes aux questions pos\u00e9es par le journaliste. Vaclav Smil rappelle que la d\u00e9carbonation est un chantier de civilisation consid\u00e9rablement plus difficile que l'id\u00e9e que l'essentiel des activistes du climat (et a fortiori des d\u00e9cideurs) s'en fait (ou que certains \u00e9conomistes, comme ceux qui signent cette tribune en expliquant \"qu'il suffit d'investir massivement dans les technologies d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es partout dans le monde\" pour faire de la croissance verte : https://lnkd.in/eGK_78qt ).\n\nNous pensons facilement transport ou logement quand il est question d'\u00e9nergie. Mais Smil rappelle que l'\u00e9nergie c'est aussi l'industrie de base. Notre civilisation est celle de l'acier (quasiment 2 milliards de tonnes produites en 2021 ; 250 kg par terrien), du ciment (environ 4 milliards de tonnes ; 500 kg par terrien), des plastiques et de la chimie organique (environ 500 millions de tonnes). \n\nOr l'industrie de base - qui produit ces mat\u00e9riaux - c'est plus d'\u00e9nergie et d'\u00e9missions - dans le monde - que l'ensemble des moyens de transport. Il n'y a pour le moment pas de plan pour d\u00e9carboner cela en 30 ans, et Smil rappelle que dans ce domaine il y a des lois physiques et chimiques qu'il n'est pas possible de transgresser (produire de l'acier vierge demandera toujours de commencer par d\u00e9barrasser de l'oxyde de fer - le minerai - de son oxyg\u00e8ne, et cela demande une quantit\u00e9 incompressible d'\u00e9nergie).\n\nSmil rappelle que les vitesses d'\u00e9volution des syst\u00e8mes sont lentes, et que de jeter des chiffres en l'air sans avoir r\u00e9fl\u00e9chi \u00e0 la mani\u00e8re d'en faire des objectifs r\u00e9alistes est contreproductif. \n\nCe que dit implicitement Smil, c'est que nous ne tiendrons malheureusement pas les objectifs de 1,5\u00b0C ou 2\u00b0C, parce qu'il est extraordinairement difficile de modifier l'ensemble du corps social \u00e0 la bonne vitesse. Les pessimistes penseront donc que nous allons droit aux ennuis de plus en plus s\u00e9rieux. \n\nLes optimistes verront son message comme un imp\u00e9rieux rappel \u00e0 l'ordre et une invitation toute aussi imp\u00e9rieuse \u00e0 devenir s\u00e9rieux sur la question. Les \u00e9quipes de notre pr\u00e9sident fraichement r\u00e9\u00e9lu qui veut \"\u00e9cologiquement planifier\" seraient bien avis\u00e9es de lire cet interview (ou - ce qui revient au m\u00eame - de revoir l'\u00e9quation de Kaya : https://lnkd.in/gAthJhJ ). Fissa !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6925707669978685440,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6925707670670729217,urn:li:activity:6925707670670729217,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 87, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6925707670670729217,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6925707670670729217,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6925707670670729217", "threadId": 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aussi tenir compte d'un contexte qui ne sera pas tranquille c\u00f4t\u00e9 approvisionnements, sans m\u00eame parler, \u00e9videmment, de ce qui se profile sur le terrain du climat (avec 1,1 \u00b0C de hausse plan\u00e9taire on a 50\u00b0C au Pakistan fin avril par exemple : https://lnkd.in/eTAPdjus, alors avec 1,5\u00b0C - que nous allons en plus all\u00e8grement d\u00e9passer - il faut s'attendre \u00e0 un peu de grabuge...).\n\nL'\u00e9lu(e) de notre coeur, au Shift Project, devrait mettre l'\u00e9conomie en phase avec une baisse de 5% des \u00e9missions par an (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf ), et organiser la r\u00e9silience d'un pays face aux chocs physiques de toute nature (climatique, biologique, d\u00e9faut de ressources, etc) qui vont se multiplier (https://lnkd.in/diZSF5w ). 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"type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le manque de certains m\u00e9taux risque de mettre un frein \u00e0 l'essor des \u00e9nergies vertes" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6925332946048454656,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a d\u00e9j\u00e0 eu un certain nombre de commentaires ici sur ce rapport fait par des chercheurs de l'Universit\u00e9 de Louvain (en Belgique) sur la demande en m\u00e9taux de la \"transition\" qui risque de ne pas \u00eatre si facile que cela \u00e0 satisfaire : https://lnkd.in/eAfPC8Xs\n\nLe commentaire que je voudrais faire ici est le suivant : pour savoir si un plan qui porte sur une grandeur physique a une chance de se r\u00e9aliser, les couts pass\u00e9s ne nous sont d'aucun secours. Or c'est souvent cette donn\u00e9e qui est la premi\u00e8re prise en compte dans l'observation du pass\u00e9 pour jauger de la facilit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire les choses \u00e0 l'avenir. \n\nPar exemple dans le dernier rapport du (groupe 3 du) GIEC il y a un graphique qui donne les \u00e9volutions de cout pass\u00e9es des \u00e9nergies dites renouvelables, et la conclusion que le lecteur est tent\u00e9 d'en tirer est que, ces modes \u00e9tant devenus \"pas plus chers que le fossile\", on va pouvoir en d\u00e9ployer partout. Voire.\n\nL'\u00e9nergie est une grandeur physique. La quantit\u00e9 de cuivre ou de nickel qu'il faut pour fabriquer une voiture \u00e9lectrique ou une \u00e9olienne sont des grandeurs physiques. La physique a l'immense avantage d'avoir des lois constantes. Pourquoi ne pas en profiter pour regarder d'entr\u00e9e de jeu la question \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique avec le bon prisme de lecture ?\n\nAvant de faire le moindre calcul \u00e9conomique, qui ne porte que sur la composante humaine du plan pour l'avenir (l'argent ne paye que des hommes, mais pas la nature), il faut commencer par faire des calculs physiques. \n\nPour savoir si la plan\u00e8te supportera 1 milliard de voitures \u00e9lectriques (car la transition devra \u00eatre mondiale puisque le probl\u00e8me est mondial) pendant un si\u00e8cle, il faut regarder la quantit\u00e9 de nickel ou de lithium n\u00e9cessaire par voiture, regarder o\u00f9 sont les limites physiques th\u00e9oriques pour faire mieux, et faire une r\u00e8gle de trois avec 1 milliard de v\u00e9hicules et une dur\u00e9e de renouvellement des v\u00e9hicules tous les X ann\u00e9es (20, 30, 40, 50, peu importe mais il faut poser une hypoth\u00e8se).\n\nIl faut regarder ce qui peut revenir du recyclage (jamais 100%) et confronter cela aux stocks extractibles... et \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie n\u00e9cessaire pour extraire et transformer ces m\u00e9taux (\u00e9nergie qui augmente fortement quand la teneur en m\u00e9tal des mines diminue, ce qu'elle fait toujours avec le temps).\n\nMais ce n'est pas comme cela que les plans sont faits. Trop souvent on voit de la prospective :\n- qui part des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques alors que l'\u00e9conomie du pass\u00e9 n'est pas pr\u00e9dictive de celle de demain\n- qui prolonge la facilit\u00e9 pass\u00e9e sans se demander \u00e0 quoi elle \u00e9tait due et si les conditions continueront \u00e0 \u00eatre r\u00e9unies plus tard\n- qui postule un avenir continu et sans crises, alors que ce ne va pas \u00eatre le cas\n- qui raisonne \"toutes choses \u00e9gales par ailleurs\" en dehors du domaine qu'ils regardent...\n\nPlanifier sur cette base ne peut qu'amener des \"surprises\" quand, apr\u00e8s coup, on regarde ce qui aurait du l'\u00eatre d\u00e8s le d\u00e9but : les possibilit\u00e9s physiques." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6925332946048454656,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6925332946648231936,urn:li:activity:6925332946648231936,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", 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s\u00e9ances).\n\nPour vous inscrire :\u00a0https://lnkd.in/dksSKn68 \nPour en savoir plus sur le contenu :\u00a0https://lnkd.in/dJ7KrVWD\nPour toute question, contactez\u00a0formation-ocara@carbone4.com" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6924275594977267712,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6924275595631599616,urn:li:activity:6924275595631599616,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 2, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6924275595631599616,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6924275595631599616,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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M\u00eame si le diviseur doit d\u00e9sormais (h\u00e9las) \u00eatre augment\u00e9, la direction \u00e0 prendre sur nos \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre reste la m\u00eame.\n\nMais ce m\u00eame chiffre (ou plus) pourrait d\u00e9sormais s'appliquer \u00e0 la multiplication d'un autre carbone : le carbone \"vivant\", \u00e0 savoir la biomasse d'esp\u00e8ces non domestiqu\u00e9es, que l'on appelle encore... la biodiversit\u00e9.\n\nEn effet, apr\u00e8s le climat (qui reste \u00e9videmment au coeur de nos pr\u00e9occupations), Carbone 4 a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d'investiguer un nouveau champ de pression environnementale : la perte de biodiversit\u00e9. Notre petit groupe poss\u00e8de d\u00e9j\u00e0 une offre dans ce domaine, port\u00e9e par Carbon 4 Finance. Il s'agit de BIA (pour Biodiversity Impact Analytics), d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e en partenariat avec CDC Biodiversit\u00e9, et qui vise \u00e0 donner l'empreinte biodiversit\u00e9 des investissements financiers.\n\nPour renforcer l'\u00e9quipe qui a aussi \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9e c\u00f4t\u00e9 conseil, nous recherchons un(e) chef(fe) de projet biodiversit\u00e9 : https://lnkd.in/eEUKcFKZ\n\nLe ou la titulaire du poste travaillera notamment avec Arthur Pivin, grand planteur d'arbres devant l'Eternel, qui s'est exprim\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment sur son parcours et sa profession de foi ici : https://lnkd.in/expyZmp3\n\nA vos CV si ca vous int\u00e9resse !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6924667518984851457,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6924667520876478465,urn:li:activity:6924667520876478465,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 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Sur la partie \u00e9missions pass\u00e9es, la mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re est compos\u00e9e des publications scientifiques ou des inventaires nationaux faisant \u00e9tat des \u00e9missions. Sur les possibles \u00e9volutions futures, il est largement fait appel \u00e0 des travaux de sc\u00e9narisation qui sont souvent faits par des \u00e9conomistes.\n\nPar ailleurs, si un sc\u00e9nario n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 dans la litt\u00e9rature \u00e0 comit\u00e9 de lecture, il ne sera pas pris en compte dans le rapport du GIEC. 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read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Climat : le Plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise | Shift Project by ilnousfautunplan.fr", "actionTarget": "https://ilnousfautunplan.fr/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Climat : le Plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise | Shift Project" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6924255467653246976,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Touch\u00e9 par la gr\u00e2ce ou fin manipulateur ? Le candidat redevenu pr\u00e9sident aura largement utilis\u00e9 dans l'entre deux tours un mot cher au Shift Project et au Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise : la planification. \n\nLes Echos de ce matin semblent consid\u00e9rer que le virage de Macron est r\u00e9el, et que ce terme de \"planification\" n'est pas juste un mot dans un discours pour capter un \u00e9lectorat m\u00e9lenchoniste qui lui \u00e9tait indispensable : https://lnkd.in/eRmJEWNb\n\nL'avenir dira, \u00e9videmment, ce qu'il convient d'en penser... \u00e0 la condition, qui n'est pas du tout assur\u00e9e, que le pr\u00e9sident qui rempile dispose d'une majorit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'Assembl\u00e9e Nationale, puisque c'est cette derni\u00e8re qui d\u00e9signe en pratique le Premier Ministre et vote les lois.\n\nCela \u00e9tant, la modeste exp\u00e9rience du Shift Project est que, au sein de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile, ce terme de \"planification\" rencontre de plus en plus d'\u00e9chos positifs. Dans les manifestations qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 organis\u00e9es autour du \"plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\", nous avons entendu des hauts responsables patronaux comme de syndicats de salari\u00e9s d\u00e9clarer que cette approche leur semblait pertinente.\n\nPlanifions, donc, mais quoi et comment ? Ce n'est de fait pas pareil de planifier \"la start-up nation\" ou la d\u00e9carbonation de l'\u00e9conomie, une nouvelle r\u00e9volution agricole ou \"la d\u00e9fense du pouvoir d'achat\".\n\nLa campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle n'aura pas vraiment permis de trancher cette question. La d\u00e9carbonation aura \u00e9t\u00e9 (tr\u00e8s) peu pr\u00e9sente dans les discours, quasiment absente des questions des journalistes politiques, et surtout pas du tout mise en perspective avec les autres sujets d\u00e9battus, qui pourtant sont directement li\u00e9s \u00e0 l'abondance des machines (retraites, pouvoir d'achat, am\u00e9nagement du territoire, \u00e9conomie productive, ch\u00f4mage...).\n\nThe Shift Project ne consid\u00e8re donc pas du tout que nous avons gagn\u00e9 la bataille finale parce que ce mot de \"planification\" a \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9 au moment du sprint final. A ce stade, nous pouvons tout juste revendiquer avoir un peu contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 une petite victoire d'\u00e9tape. Mais Rome ne s'est pas faite en un jour. Alors nous allons continuer \u00e0 travailler. Toutes les entreprises qui souhaitent soutenir financi\u00e8rement nos travaux le peuvent :) (https://lnkd.in/eYdHuMDA ) et tous les individus qui souhaitent nous aider en rejoignant les Shifters le peuvent aussi : https://lnkd.in/dsYcVSm\n\nEt surtout, quelles que soient les d\u00e9clarations de campagne du nouveau premier magistrat, il va se faire rattraper dans les ann\u00e9es qui viennent par de \"l'impr\u00e9vu\" du \u00e0 la tenaille \u00e9nergie-climat. C'est dans ces moments l\u00e0 qu'il sera essentiel de disposer d'un plan, pas juste au moment de la campagne." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6924255467653246976,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6924255468332695552,urn:li:activity:6924255468332695552,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 108, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6924255468332695552,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6924255468332695552,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6923933868622274560,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'ozone, selon l'endroit o\u00f9 il se trouve, nous l'aimons beaucoup ou pas. Dans la haute atmosph\u00e8re, ce gaz de formule O3 nous est pr\u00e9cieux : il a le bon go\u00fbt d'intercepter les ultraviolets les plus durs que notre astre du jour nous envoie avec le reste de son rayonnement. \n\nSa diminution dans la stratosph\u00e8re est une mauvaise nouvelle, et c'est pour cela que le Protocole de Montr\u00e9al, entr\u00e9 en vigueur d\u00e9but 1989, a contraint les pays signataires \u00e0 ne plus utiliser des gaz appel\u00e9s CFC (chloro-fluoro-carbures), dont la d\u00e9gradation dans la stratosph\u00e8re conduisait \u00e0 y diminuer la teneur en ozone. Ces CFC \u00e9taient employ\u00e9s dans les circuits de r\u00e9frig\u00e9ration, comme gaz expanseurs de mousses, et comme gaz propulseurs dans les bombes a\u00e9rosols. \n\nMais l'ozone est aussi pr\u00e9sent dans la basse atmosph\u00e8re, o\u00f9 nous d\u00e9couvrons une autre facette de ce m\u00eame gaz : nous voyons alors qu'il s'agit d'un oxydant tr\u00e8s agressif, dont nos poumons (et les plantes) n'appr\u00e9cient pas du tout la pr\u00e9sence. Et il s'agit aussi d'un gaz \u00e0 effet de serre (ce gaz poss\u00e8de donc des raies d'absorption \u00e0 la fois dans l'infrarouge terrestre et dans l'ultraviolet solaire).\n\nLe r\u00e9chauffement climatique va accro\u00eetre sa concentration dans la basse atmosph\u00e8re, ce qui va augmenter la mortalit\u00e9 pr\u00e9matur\u00e9e qu'il engendre et diminuer la croissance des plantes. Ce n'est pas tr\u00e8s r\u00e9jouissant mais autant \u00eatre pr\u00e9venu : cet article de Carbone 4 vous pr\u00e9sente cette cons\u00e9quence de la d\u00e9rive climatique d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e dans le dernier rapport du GIEC, et sugg\u00e8re quelques pistes pour parer au mieux les ennuis \u00e0 venir." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6923933868622274560,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6923933869545025536,urn:li:activity:6923933869545025536,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 22, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6923933869545025536,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6923663230695317504,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La campagne \u00e9lectorale est termin\u00e9e depuis hier soir minuit. Du coup, il n'\u00e9tait pas question d'utiliser la chronique de ce matin sur RTL pour parler directement des programmes des finalistes. \n\nPar contre, quel que soit le nom qui sortira des urnes demain, les d\u00e9fis resteront les m\u00eames. Dans ces d\u00e9fis, il y a notamment la d\u00e9carbonation, subie \u00e0 d\u00e9faut d'\u00eatre voulue, qui nous attend pour les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir, et qui doit imp\u00e9rativement \u00eatre mise en route de mani\u00e8re pilot\u00e9e avec beaucoup plus de d\u00e9termination pendant le prochain quinquennat.\n\nPour g\u00e9rer cette d\u00e9carbonation, il y a deux leviers \u00e0 actionner : \n- la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 (c'est \u00e0 dire moins consommer et donc par la force des choses moins produire). \n- le passage \u00e0 des \u00e9nergies d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es.\n\nDans cette deuxi\u00e8me cat\u00e9gorie on va trouver les \u00e9nergies dites renouvelables et les \u00e9nergies dites nucl\u00e9aires. Et dans cette derni\u00e8re cat\u00e9gorie on trouve... la fusion, sur laquelle j'ai souvent eu des questions.\n\nExpliquer en quelques minutes, sans sch\u00e9ma, avec des mots pas trop compliqu\u00e9s (on sent que j'ai h\u00e9sit\u00e9 avant de dire \"isotope\" et \"tore\" !), en quoi consiste la fusion, et surtout ce qu'il ne faut pas en attendre, tel \u00e9tait le d\u00e9fi que je m'\u00e9tais fix\u00e9 pour cette derni\u00e8re chronique avant d'aller faire mon devoir civique. \n\nLe point essentiel est celui du calendrier. Si elle semble tr\u00e8s s\u00e9duisante sur le papier, l'\u00e9nergie du soleil ne contribuera h\u00e9las pas significativement \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation du monde avant la fin du si\u00e8cle. Comme il faut abandonner p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon en 3 \u00e0 4 d\u00e9cennies, on peut tout de suite oublier ITER dans cette histoire : la fusion arrivera apr\u00e8s la bataille !\n\nJe ne pouvais pas parler d'\u00e9lection dans ma chronique, mais ici je ne vais pas r\u00e9sister :). Quel lien ? Pour la fusion comme pour l'\u00e9lection, le miracle est hors d'atteinte. Il va donc falloir faire avec \"ce que l'on a sous la main\".\n\nLes 5 ans qui viennent vont \u00eatre - probablement encore plus que les 5 ans pass\u00e9s - secou\u00e9s par des \"crises\" (\u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, climatiques, de ressources, biologiques... et en cons\u00e9quence \u00e9conomiques et sociales) dont seule l'\u00e9ch\u00e9ance pr\u00e9cise est inconnue. \n\nCes \"impr\u00e9vus\" (en fait pas tant que cela) vont emp\u00eacher, un peu ou beaucoup, la r\u00e9alisation d'une partie plus ou moins large des promesses de chacun(e) des deux finalistes (sans compter que pour mettre en oeuvre leur programme il leur faut une majorit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'Assembl\u00e9e nationale, ce qui n'est pas un d\u00e9tail).\n\nCe contexte demande par ailleurs des actions \u00e0 effet rapide avec les moyens du bord. Il demande de renoncer, alors qu'aujourd'hui nous ne savons qu'empiler. Il demande des efforts pour \u00e9viter la souffrance (la bonne question \u00e9tant celle de l'\u00e9quit\u00e9). Il demande de revisiter beaucoup de \"situations acquises\" tout en suscitant de l'enthousiasme pour construire.\n\nAucun des deux finalistes n'est \"miraculeux\" au regard de ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de. Mais voter n'est pas le choix d'un miracle. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8720793191846669655)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lepoint.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Macron promet un Premier ministre \"directement charg\u00e9 de la planification \u00e9cologique\" by lepoint.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/macron-promet-un-premier-ministre-directement-charge-de-la-planification-ecologique-16-04-2022-2472374_20.php" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Macron promet un Premier ministre \"directement charg\u00e9 de la planification \u00e9cologique\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6922963097460572160,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans les novations du programme du candidat Macron ajout\u00e9es apr\u00e8s le premier tour figure la proposition de cr\u00e9er un Premier ministre \"directement charg\u00e9 de la planification \u00e9cologique\", auquel seraient rattach\u00e9s deux ministres d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s en charge \"de la planification \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\" et \"de la planification \u00e9cologique territoriale\".\n\nC'est toujours une bonne nouvelle qu'un responsable politique, quel qu'il soit, affirme que nos plans pour l'avenir doivent inclure de nous remettre \u00e0 bonne distance des limites plan\u00e9taires que nous avons franchies, ou que nous nous appr\u00eatons \u00e0 franchir. Et il ne faut pas se leurrer : ce genre d'annonce sera h\u00e9las souvent faite en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 un impr\u00e9vu. \n\nMais la forme propos\u00e9e est-elle la bonne ? Cette id\u00e9e de mettre \"tr\u00e8s haut dans le gouvernement\" une personne sp\u00e9cifiquement en charge de l'environnement ne date pas d'hier : elle \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans le Pacte Ecologique de la Fondation Nicolas Hulot de 2007 et a donn\u00e9 naissance au \"super minist\u00e8re\" de Borloo. Est-ce que cela a chang\u00e9 la trajectoire de la France ? Pas vraiment.\n\nPar ailleurs il est curieux de dire que 2 ministres seront plus particuli\u00e8rement \"d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s\" aupr\u00e8s du Premier ministre pour cette transition. D'une part tous les ministres de plein exercice sont \"d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s\" aupr\u00e8s du premier d'entre eux, et d'autre part il n'existe pas un minist\u00e8re qui peut se consid\u00e9rer comme \"pas concern\u00e9\". Au nom de quoi le minist\u00e8re de l'Education Nationale, celui de la Jeunesse et des Sports, celui de la Sant\u00e9 ou celui des Affaires Etrang\u00e8res - sans parler de la Fonction Publique ou de la D\u00e9fense - devraient \u00eatre laiss\u00e9s \"en dehors\" de la transition ?\n\nEn r\u00e9alit\u00e9, l'ensemble du gouvernement est charg\u00e9 de la mise en application du projet de la majorit\u00e9 (qui \u00e9mane de l'Assembl\u00e9e, et non du pr\u00e9sident, petit d\u00e9tail qui a son importance !). \n\nSi le projet est de faire \"pour de vrai\" une d\u00e9carbonation g\u00e9r\u00e9e et d\u00e9sirable, il n'y a pas besoin de charger le premier ministre d'une mission sp\u00e9ciale ni de lui adjoindre des ministres plus particuli\u00e8rement en charge du sujet. Il \"faut juste\" que le projet majoritaire soit d'y aller, que l'ensemble des propositions soit au service et/ou en coh\u00e9rence de cet objectif, et apr\u00e8s chaque ministre aura son r\u00f4le \u00e0 jouer dans l'ensemble.\n\nIl sera par contre n\u00e9cessaire de modifier beaucoup de choses dans le fonctionnement op\u00e9rationnel de la haute administration, mais cela est une autre histoire." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6922963097460572160,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6922963098433650688,urn:li:activity:6922963098433650688,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 134, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6922963098433650688,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise) dans cette interview pour Novethic : la voiture pour tou(te)s ou presque (il y a d\u00e9sormais 40 millions de v\u00e9hicules particuliers dans notre pays contre 2,5 juste apr\u00e8s guerre) a conduit \u00e0 faire un urbanisme \u00e9tal\u00e9 en cons\u00e9quence.\n\nNous n'avons donc pas affect\u00e9 l'augmentation de la vitesse des d\u00e9placements \u00e0 raccourcir nos temps de d\u00e9placement, mais \u00e0 allonger les distances \u00e0 temps de d\u00e9placement constant.\n\nQuestion : que deviendra cet urbanisme lorsque, Poutine ou pas, nous aurons de moins en moins de modes de d\u00e9placement individuels rapides ? Car ce temps viendra : il n'y aura pas 1,2 milliard de voitures particuli\u00e8res (valeur actuelle) \u00e9lectriques sur terre pendant des si\u00e8cles (condition pour que l'urbanisme, dont le temps d'\u00e9volution est plus proche du si\u00e8cle que de l'ann\u00e9e, \u00e9volue).\n\nUne autre question vient se greffer : sachant que les villes sont uniquement des lieux d'\u00e9change ou de transformation, o\u00f9 rien \"de base\" n'est produit sur place (ni mines, ni champs, ni for\u00eats...), avec des emplois associ\u00e9s (essentiellement du tertiaire), que deviendront les villes quand les transports longue distance qui permettent de nourrir les habitants, les v\u00eatir, les loger, et acheminer tout ce qui est n\u00e9cessaire aux emplois tertiaires en question, deviendront moins abondants ? A l'\u00e9poque de l'\u00e9nergie rare (il y a quelques si\u00e8cles) la population urbaine \u00e9tait consid\u00e9rablement plus petite qu'aujourd'hui... et ce n'est pas un hasard.\n\nL\u00e0 comme ailleurs, moins nous anticiperons - ce qui est le cas actuel - et plus dure sera la r\u00e9gulation par la crise. Entre autres absences dans les d\u00e9bats de cette dr\u00f4le de campagne, aucun(e) candidat(e) n'a dit quoi que ce soit sur la mani\u00e8re de faire \u00e9voluer l'am\u00e9nagement du territoire - proportion villes/campagnes et forme des villes - dans un monde plus sobre en \u00e9nergie.\n\nNe pas en rajouter au probl\u00e8me (et donc arr\u00eater de faire grossir les grosses villes + contenir l'\u00e9talement urbain de celles existantes) devrait \u00eatre la premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape de ce difficile chemin." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6922471223088041985,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6922471223926906880,urn:li:activity:6922471223926906880,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 72, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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cons\u00e9quence de quoi je n'ai jamais dit \u00e0 personne chez LREM (ou ailleurs) que je souhaitais occuper cette fonction et que j'aurais r\u00e9cemment chang\u00e9 d'avis sur ce sujet.\n\nIncidemment le programme d\u00e9crit dans https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf ne rel\u00e8ve pas de 2 ministres particuliers. 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Quels constats et quelles perspectives ? \u23f3\ufe0f Alors que se profile L'In\u00e9vitable R\u00e9bellion, action de d\u00e9sob\u00e9issance civile non-violente organis\u00e9e \u00e0 l'entre-deux-tours de l'\u00e9lection..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "\u2728 \u00c9pisode 3 - Jean-Marc Jancovici | Paroles d'Expert.e.s - l'In\u00e9vitable R\u00e9bellion" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6921024767382724608,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ce week-end, le mouvement Extinction Rebellion d\u00e9marre une op\u00e9ration de blocage d'un lieu parisien pour manifester contre l'inaction en mati\u00e8re de climat. Cette action est parfaitement ill\u00e9gale. En effet, elle entre dans la cat\u00e9gorie des manifestations non autoris\u00e9es, et des entraves \u00e0 la libert\u00e9 de circuler (ce qui est aussi le cas des piquets de gr\u00e8ve), toutes choses qui sont r\u00e9prim\u00e9es par la loi.\n\nMais est-elle immorale ? L'assimilation de la r\u00e8gle et de la morale est parfois moins \u00e9vidente qu'il n'y para\u00eet. Par exemple, il est actuellement parfaitement l\u00e9gal de se procurer une arme \u00e0 feu aux USA avec des restrictions \u00e0 cet acc\u00e8s qui sont minimes ou inexistantes. Est-ce moral ? Le tabac tue 70.000 personnes par an en France et est en vente libre (sauf aux mineurs en th\u00e9orie mais la loi n'est \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s jamais respect\u00e9e) : est-ce moral ?\n\nPayer 5 fois plus cher un salari\u00e9 du secteur financier qu'un ma\u00e7on qui isole des logements est parfaitement l\u00e9gal. Est-ce moral ? On pourrait multiplier ainsi les exemples de comportements qui sont parfaitement en phase avec la r\u00e8gle du moment mais qui sont pourtant l'objet de d\u00e9bats... sur le fait que la r\u00e8gle pourrait changer.\n\nA l'inverse, comme je le rappelle dans cette br\u00e8ve interview que j'ai accept\u00e9e de faire pour ce mouvement, nous c\u00e9l\u00e9brons tous les 14 juillet un acte aujourd'hui consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme tout \u00e0 fait moral - il s'agit de la r\u00e9volution fran\u00e7aise - et qui \u00e9tait parfaitement ill\u00e9gal \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque.\n\nL'occupation non autoris\u00e9e de l'espace public n'est donc pas l\u00e9gale. Mais l'inaction sur le climat ne semble pas morale \u00e0 une personne qui a aujourd'hui 25 ans (et m\u00eame 60). 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normale, ce qui fait que les pluies r\u00e9centes sont bienvenues (un avis qui ne semble pas partag\u00e9 par les parisien(ne)s que j'entends se plaindre du \"mauvais temps\" dans le m\u00e9tro ; peut-\u00eatre qu'ils et elles ne mangent pas et n'aiment pas les arbres :) ?).\n\nLes USA ont aussi eu un hiver qui n'a pas permis de compenser l'\u00e9tat de s\u00e9cheresse globalement exceptionnel que conna\u00eet la moiti\u00e9 ouest du pays en ce d\u00e9but de printemps : https://lnkd.in/dQVN83A\n\nR\u00e9sultats (entre autres) :\n- il y a d\u00e9j\u00e0 des incendies de for\u00eat d\u00e9but avril : https://lnkd.in/eR74ts-n!\n- le plus grand lac de retenue du pays (le lac Powell) a un niveau historiquement bas (ci-dessous ; photos prises depuis l'espace par les satellites europ\u00e9ens Sentinel 2), ce qui menace la production hydro\u00e9lectrique ainsi que l'irrigation.\n\nRappelons que dans le cadre de la d\u00e9rive climatique beaucoup de zones des moyennes latitudes vont s'ass\u00e9cher (voir en commentaire la variation d'humidit\u00e9 des sols pour le sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 +2,7 \u00b0C en 2100). Ce que nous vivons en ce moment sur le prix des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales \u00e0 cause de l'Ukraine est malheureusement juste un petit avant-gout de ce qui nous attend dans un monde qui se r\u00e9chauffe. \n\nNotre \"transition\", quelle qu'elle soit, va donc se d\u00e9rouler dans un monde de plus en plus volatil, o\u00f9 les \"mauvaises surprises\" vont se multiplier. Mais gageons que le d\u00e9bat du 2\u00e8 tour interrogera les candidats comme si l'avenir ne devait d\u00e9pendre que de variables \u00e0 notre main..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6920624837375762432,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6920624837954572288,urn:li:activity:6920624837954572288,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 41, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6920624837954572288,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6920624837954572288,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8088540482235470836)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theshiftproject.org \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Les 4 questions cl\u00e9s pour le second tour - The Shift Project by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/climat-energie-les-4-questions-cles-pour-le-second-tour/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les 4 questions cl\u00e9s pour le second tour - The Shift Project" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6920386397300244480,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Au Shift Project, nous sommes comme beaucoup de personnes int\u00e9ress\u00e9es/pr\u00e9occup\u00e9es par les sujets environnementaux : nous avons trouv\u00e9 que pendant cette campagne le silence avait \u00e9t\u00e9 un peu trop assourdissant sur nos sujets... qui sont aussi ceux de tous les habitants de ce grand vaisseau spatial qui s'appelle la terre.\n\nAlors comme on n'est jamais mieux servi que par soi-m\u00eame, nous avons d\u00e9cid\u00e9... de r\u00e9diger des questions que nous aimerions voir pos\u00e9es aux deux finalistes.\n\nElles sont un peu longues puisqu'il y a un \"expos\u00e9 des motifs\" dans chaque question, mais cela ne prend quand m\u00eame pas tr\u00e8s longtemps de les lire !\n\nSi des journalistes cuisinant parfois des politiques lisent ce post, ces questions sont bien \u00e9videmment recyclables (en les modifiant un peu au besoin) :\n- pour les l\u00e9gislatives\n- pour toute intervention de tout ministre du futur gouvernement.\n\nEt si les m\u00eames veulent d'autres suggestions, on leur en fournira avec plaisir !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": 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1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1651047357421?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=yuscnby9WsPAMSVu0pbUv6FghPR7uPqvTxIn5W6RhWI", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1651047357421?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=QZPCuQLoOWdAkgAgGs5SKNUlNtF3DmkQoC5MNQsH5eM", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D03AQFObKO9ZT61hA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "I+5DTKk8RLCkbf7DB7r8Qw==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Est-ce une petite overdose de m\u00e9thode Cou\u00e9, ou une fine analyse de ce qui s'est d\u00e9roul\u00e9 dans notre pays depuis quelques mois ? Dans une tribune parue hier dans Les Echos, Gaspard Koenig se r\u00e9jouit du score tr\u00e8s bas de Yannick Jadot au premier tour avec un argument qui ne manque pas d'int\u00e9r\u00eat... s'il est av\u00e9r\u00e9 :). \n\nSon point est de dire que le destin des Verts est de dispara\u00eetre parce que l'environnement sera devenu un th\u00e8me \"ordinaire\" pour les autres partis politiques, ce qui signifie que nous sommes pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment au moment o\u00f9 la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 toute enti\u00e8re souhaite que l'on s'en empare. Et il consid\u00e8re que nous y sommes.\n\nIncidemment, The Shift Project est aussi concern\u00e9 par le m\u00eame argument : le destin de cette association est bien de s'auto-dissoudre lorsque le probl\u00e8me climatique aura \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9gl\u00e9 ! (bon, j'ai bien peur que ca ne soit pas pour demain matin...).\n\nIl se plaide donc qu'un parti dont l'objet est \"juste\" un aspect de notre vie en commun soit encore utile lorsque cet aspect est int\u00e9gr\u00e9 par tous les autres.\n\nDe fait, notre pays ne comporte pas de parti pour le droit \u00e0 l'apprentissage de la lecture ou pour le droit d'\u00eatre propri\u00e9taire : ces sujets l\u00e0 \u00e9tant d'int\u00e9r\u00eat pour tout le monde, tous les partis s'en emparent. Les modalit\u00e9s changent, non la pertinence de l'objectif. \n\nRevenons donc \u00e0 cette tribune : l\u00e0 o\u00f9 son auteur a probablement raison, c'est que l'environnement - et notamment la question climatique - devient un sujet \"ordinaire\" : une large fraction de la population attend clairement le monde politique sur la question, et tou(te)s les candidat(e)s ont \u00e9voqu\u00e9 le sujet, un peu ou beaucoup.\n\nPar contre, aucun(e) ne lui a donn\u00e9 la place qu'il m\u00e9rite, \u00e0 savoir celle d'un sujet qui conditionne tout le reste (trop souvent aid\u00e9s par des media qui soit ne l'ont pas compris, soit ne veulent pas le dire). C'est par ailleurs un pari audacieux de proposer de produire plus ou m\u00eame autant dans un monde avec moins de ressources, ce qui \u00e9tait plus ou moins implicite dans tous les programmes du 1er tour. \n\nDe fait, avoir plus de redistribution dans un monde qui produit \"beaucoup plus proprement\" - donc moins - est une variante de la croissance verte, et a donc autant de chances de se produire que cette derni\u00e8re.\n\nL'auteur de la tribune a bien vu cette difficult\u00e9. Il ne compte pas sur le politique pour la r\u00e9soudre, mais... sur nous tou(te)s. Il nous appelle \u00e0 revisiter la notion de libert\u00e9 qui \"[ne doit pas \u00eatre] la possibilit\u00e9 d'\u00e9tendre son pouvoir sur le monde, mais d'accro\u00eetre son pouvoir sur soi, pour devenir aussi ind\u00e9pendant que possible des circonstances ext\u00e9rieures\". Pouvons nous d\u00e9sirer la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 en devenant tous sto\u00efciens ?\n\nCe qui est certain, c'est qu'en d\u00e9mocratie \"tranquille\" le pouvoir \u00e9lu ne sera pas plus courageux que ses \u00e9lecteurs, et en plus il l'est toujours avec 3 \u00e0 5 ans de retard. Seule une crise, ou une profonde modification de la hi\u00e9rarchie des valeurs des \u00e9lecteurs peut changer la donne. Koenig appelle \u00e0 la seconde option." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6920262461078048768,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6920262461803655169,urn:li:activity:6920262461803655169,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 97, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6920262461803655169,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6920262461803655169,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6920262461803655169", 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9150198425758571576)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "leparisien.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Climat : il y a 50 ans, le rapport Meadows sonne la premi\u00e8re alerte pour la plan\u00e8te Terre by leparisien.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.leparisien.fr/environnement/climat-il-y-a-50-ans-le-rapport-meadows-sonne-la-premiere-alerte-pour-la-planete-terre-10-04-2022-KAGI4F5UFZFAFGWX7HJSZ2Y46M.php" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Climat : il y a 50 ans, le rapport Meadows sonne la premi\u00e8re alerte pour la plan\u00e8te Terre" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6919906796736282626,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 2825, "length": 17, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "David", "lastName": "Charpentier", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAArVm5UBeFdDboZbe3V7s0F5Wfa4BvESsJc", "occupation": "Chef de service adjoint au p\u00f4le Economie chez Le Parisien", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:181771157", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAArVm5UBeFdDboZbe3V7s0F5Wfa4BvESsJc", "publicIdentifier": "david-charpentier-785a5b50", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1516474574188?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=5ML5i0ZcsR6SkTa3GceWKcVvJRSZLYFgEe3odMuq2Mg", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1516474574188?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=ambuB8AFTDLRkjdibaZLYKfy72lfWl06CzSa7wmlC7I", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1516474574188?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=ywxwqwTPbvTkXeaxioDRWyEYtkyvQ-8kBbI-nQT-tXk", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1516474574188?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=NYlvSWInn_FvbgTUYP36ERDj2trAeA3vePS4Xq7Khzs", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C5103AQEMiExIdN3IMA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "5KlkVR8ZQzuE9t5haaDtoA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "N'\u00e9tant pas abonn\u00e9 au Parisien, je ne saurai pas ce qui est \u00e9crit exactement dans cet article. Mais l'essentiel, en l'esp\u00e8ce, est l'existence m\u00eame d'un article sur les 50 ans de ce rapport dans un \"grand journal populaire\", dont la ligne \u00e9ditoriale est de parler du quotidien de nos concitoyens.\n\nCe rapport, qui est une merveille de vulgarisation sur la dynamique des syst\u00e8mes, a donc \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 il y a un demi-si\u00e8cle. Que penser aujourd'hui de ce travail, qui ambitionnait de fournir les \"grandes tendances\" caract\u00e9risant une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 humaine cherchant \u00e0 maintenir la croissance de son activit\u00e9 aussi longtemps que possible ?\n\nQuelques chercheurs ont compar\u00e9 comment avaient \u00e9volu\u00e9 des indicateurs \"faciles \u00e0 suivre\" dans la mod\u00e9lisation de Meadows et al. et dans la vraie vie : la population, ou la production agricole ou industrielle. \n\nA l'\u00e9poque, et avec les moyens informatiques disponibles alors, il \u00e9tait par contre difficile de faire un mod\u00e8le incorporant des milliers de variables \"physiques\", comme les \u00e9missions de CO2, la consommation de p\u00e9trole ou de cuivre, ou encore les populations d'esp\u00e8ces. La mod\u00e9lisation a donc port\u00e9 sur des indicateurs agr\u00e9g\u00e9s, comme par exemple \"l'ensemble des ressources non renouvelables\" ou \"l'ensemble de la pollution\".\n\nPour ces indicateurs l\u00e0, la comparaison avec l'\u00e9volution du monde est plus d\u00e9licate. Mais si l'on prend comme proxy de la pollution les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre (ce n'est pas compl\u00e8tement idiot : le CO2 vient tr\u00e8s majoritairement de l'\u00e9nergie, or plus on utilise d'\u00e9nergie plus on transforme, et plus on transforme plus il y a de sous-produits ind\u00e9sirables de cette transformation = de la pollution) et si l'on prend comme proxy des stocks de ressources naturelles non renouvelables les combustibles fossiles (pas compl\u00e8tement ill\u00e9gitime non plus : nous extrayons des ressources \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s \u00e0 proportion des combustibles fossiles utilis\u00e9s) alors on voit que les projections du sc\u00e9nario \"ligne de pente\" (appel\u00e9 aussi \"business as usual\") ne sont pas tr\u00e8s \u00e9loign\u00e9es de ce qui s'est vraiment pass\u00e9 : https://lnkd.in/gKxWieK ).\n\nEt il est frappant de constater que, en ce d\u00e9but de 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle, des pics ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 franchis ou sont en passe de l'\u00eatre :\n- le pic de poissons p\u00each\u00e9s (1995)\n- le pic de production du p\u00e9trole conventionnel (2008) et tous p\u00e9troles au cours de cette d\u00e9cennie si ce n'est pas 2019\n- le pic de la photosynth\u00e8se aux moyennes latitudes a peut-\u00eatre \u00e9t\u00e9 pass\u00e9 au d\u00e9but du si\u00e8cle...\n\nDans ce contexte, la question de savoir quelle retraite nous toucherons en 2050 ne se pr\u00e9sente pas pareil qu'avec de la croissance \u00e0 gogo, mais cela n'a pas l'air de trop pr\u00e9occuper nos finalistes de l'\u00e9lection... ni les journalistes \"politiques\" qui leur tendent le micro. Pourtant, si un journaliste \u00e9conomique d'un \"quotidien populaire\" s'y met (David Charpentier), les journalistes politiques - dont le m\u00e9tier n'est pas juste de passer les plats - ont-ils encore une seule excuse valable pour garder des oeill\u00e8res ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6919906796736282626,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6919906797768065024,urn:li:activity:6919906797768065024,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 71, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6919906797768065024,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6919906797768065024,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", 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"title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les justifications de Jean Castex sur son aller-retour en avion pour voter : \"Il faut que le Premier ministre soit \u00e0 Paris tr\u00e8s vite\u2026\" (VIDEO)" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6919602678394191872,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 23, "length": 11, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean", "lastName": "Castex", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAADGBr_4Blpfb3lhcaxTg9ozKiP5rx312PhI", "occupation": "Pr\u00e9sident-directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral du groupe RATP", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:830582782", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAADGBr_4Blpfb3lhcaxTg9ozKiP5rx312PhI", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1603100659776?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=lA-Suv06Ra8u76RZ2meINTmG6UmIvO__u8OicpZWjuM", 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400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1669635574467?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=KhtOWJTPlfElJtpntgW4cpeIBEO8U_Iblq7TjeWw-OY", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4E03AQFZVAFScGEoJw/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "wpXQNwa7Sw+IGz4uh9gH5Q==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Notre premier ministre Jean Castex a pris un jet priv\u00e9 pour aller voter. Argument invoqu\u00e9 : il faut qu'il puisse s'absenter le moins longtemps possible pour \u00eatre pr\u00eat \u00e0 r\u00e9agir en cas de probl\u00e8me.\n\nEn Su\u00e8de, les membres du gouvernement prennent le m\u00e9tro ou le v\u00e9lo, et il n'est pas sur que ce pays g\u00e8re moins bien ses urgences que le notre...\n\nEn fait, \u00e0 l'heure o\u00f9 nous sommes connect\u00e9s en permanence, il est \u00e9vident que cet argument n'a aucune esp\u00e8ce de validit\u00e9. En outre, le candidat choisi par Castex \u00e9tant probablement un secret de Polichinelle, il aurait tout aussi bien pu faire une procuration \u00e0 n'importe quel d\u00e9put\u00e9 LREM du coin qui se serait fait un plaisir d'y aller pour lui. \n\nAdmettons que Castex n'ait pas compris que cet aller-retour en jet priv\u00e9 \u00e9tait une provocation pour les jeunes (et les moins jeunes) effray\u00e9s par le changement climatique. Admettons qu'il n'ait pas compris que c'\u00e9tait une provocation pour les gens qui en ce moment sont prisonniers d'un carburant \u00e0 2 euros (m\u00eame si les personnes concern\u00e9es n'ont pas toujours \u00e9cout\u00e9 les incitations \u00e0 acheter les voitures les plus sobres possibles de par le pass\u00e9 !).\n\nAdmettons qu'il n'ait pas compris que de surconsommer du carburant \u00e9tait aujourd'hui \"sur-financer\" Poutine alors m\u00eame que nous faisons de grands discours appelant \u00e0 l'inverse.\n\nIl pourrait \u00e0 tout le moins faire un petit mea culpa. Ca n'est pas d\u00e9shonorant de pr\u00e9senter des excuses quand on a fait mal sans faire expr\u00e8s. Ca nous arrive \u00e0 tous quand nous faisons un geste brusque dans un pi\u00e8ce et qu'une personne que nous n'avions pas vue prend un coup (heureusement pas m\u00e9chant l'essentiel du temps).\n\nPar ailleurs quand un ministre a un comportent ou un discours qui le met en porte \u00e0 faux avec la politique gouvernementale du moment il est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement recadr\u00e9 par \"plus haut que lui\" (ici ce serait le chef de l'Etat). \n\nIl est significatif qu'un tel recadrage n'ait pas (encore ?) eu lieu. Cela signifie qu'au fond il n'est pas tr\u00e8s grave de se fiche de l'environnement quand on est premier ministre dans ce gouvernement (ca n'est pas mieux en face pour \u00e9viter tout malentendu !)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6919602678394191872,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6919602679035928576,urn:li:activity:6919602679035928576,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 1002, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6919602679035928576,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6919602679035928576,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6919537204356648961,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Nous sommes des animaux terrestres : de ce fait nous avons la bougeotte, et le d\u00e9placement fait partie de notre nature. Mais depuis que le p\u00e9trole s'est invit\u00e9 dans nos vies, nos d\u00e9placements quotidiens sont pass\u00e9s de 3 km par jour \u00e0 10 fois plus (voir https://lnkd.in/ejMNZQgN pour des d\u00e9tails). De 2 millions de v\u00e9hicules particuliers en 1945, le parc automobile fran\u00e7ais est pass\u00e9 \u00e0 presque 40. \n\nLe p\u00e9trole, le gaz et le charbon ayant lib\u00e9r\u00e9 nos bras via les machines, nous avons eu des vacances (cong\u00e9s pay\u00e9s), et comme nous sommes des animaux curieux et explorateurs, nous avons profit\u00e9 de ce temps libre et de la mobilit\u00e9 motoris\u00e9e pour prendre l'habitude d'aller voir ailleurs ce qui se passe (ca s'appelle le \"d\u00e9paysement\").\n\nLa mobilit\u00e9 accessible \u00e0 tou(te)s a aussi \u00e9clat\u00e9 les familles (qui avant vivaient globalement au m\u00eame endroit de g\u00e9n\u00e9ration en g\u00e9n\u00e9ration), engendrant l'envie de se retrouver de temps en temps... en se d\u00e9pla\u00e7ant.\n\nAujourd'hui, un(e) fran\u00e7ais(e) parcourt en moyenne 7600 km par an pour sa mobilit\u00e9 dite longue distance, l'emmenant \u00e0 plus de 80 km de son domicile. Les motifs en sont essentiellement \"non professionnels\" : vacances, loisirs, visites \u00e0 la famille ou \u00e0 des ami(e)s.\n\nTout cela, c'est le p\u00e9trole qui nous l'a donn\u00e9. La voiture domine largement dans les d\u00e9placements, mais l'avion fait jeu \u00e9gal avec la voiture dans les kilom\u00e8tres parcourus, et conduit \u00e0 plus d'\u00e9missions que la voiture pour les loisirs. \n\nDans un monde qui doit totalement se passer de p\u00e9trole en 30 \u00e0 50 ans (et qui va de toute fa\u00e7on, en Europe, en consommer 2 \u00e0 Z fois moins dans les 30 ans \u00e0 venir : https://lnkd.in/dqWtnMPi ), et sans r\u00eaver \u00e0 des \"humains immobiles\", ce qui ne correspond pas \u00e0 notre nature, comment faire ?\n\nTelle est la question abord\u00e9e dans ce dernier volet publi\u00e9 du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise version 1. Sans grande surprise on va trouver dans le cocktail de solutions moins d'avion, moins de voiture et plus de train, des voitures de plus en plus \u00e9lectriques, et une organisation des voyages (par exemple de la location de modes de d\u00e9placement \"locaux\" et d\u00e9carbon\u00e9s \u00e0 destination) permettant de continuer \u00e0 se d\u00e9placer pour ses loisirs.\n\nRien de tout cela ne va cependant se faire tout seul par la magie du march\u00e9 envoyant 30 ans \u00e0 l'avance les bons signaux \u00e0 des acteurs qui anticiperont sur cette dur\u00e9e. Comme pour le reste du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise, il va \u00eatre n\u00e9cessaire de... planifier. Moins on le fera et plus le risque que cette mobilit\u00e9 baisse de fa\u00e7on brutale et in\u00e9quitable augmente.\n\nLa \"planification \u00e9cologique\" n'est pas qu'un r\u00eave de vieux ronchons qui ne se sont pas remis de la chute de l'URSS. C'est la meilleure mani\u00e8re de pr\u00e9server nos libert\u00e9s futures - dont la paix et la stabilit\u00e9 sont des pr\u00e9suppos\u00e9s indispensables - en acceptant un peu moins de libert\u00e9 tout de suite. Si l'exp\u00e9rience doit nous le prouver, il sera trop tard pour faire machine arri\u00e8re." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6919537204356648961,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6919537205082267648,urn:li:activity:6919537205082267648,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 63, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6919537205082267648,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6919537205082267648,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8087568316306548159)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "jancovici.com \u2022 6 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Marine Le Pen, enfant du carbone ? by jancovici.com", "actionTarget": "https://jancovici.com/publications-et-co/articles-de-presse/marine-le-pen-enfant-du-carbone/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Marine Le Pen, enfant du carbone ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6919180048507785216,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le titre de cet article pourrait faire penser qu'il a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9crit la nuit derni\u00e8re, histoire de montrer que je suis \"\u00e0 la page\" et que j'ai un peu suivi le r\u00e9sultat de ce premier tour.\n\nEn fait il date de... 2011, et avait \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 dans Les Echos \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque. En exhumant cette production des placards, je prends \u00e9videmment le risque que l'on y pointe quelques petits \u00e9l\u00e9ments qui ne sont pas compl\u00e8tement raccord avec les 10 ans que nous avons connus depuis (et l'emploi du mot \"d\u00e9carbonisation\" plut\u00f4t que \"d\u00e9carbonation\" !), mais c'est bien le sens g\u00e9n\u00e9ral qu'il faut y voir. \n\nLe sens g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, qu'aucun(e) candidat(e) n'a mis en avant pendant cette campagne, est que l'\u00e9conomie est avant tout une affaire de flux physiques, que la d\u00e9crue subie des combustibles fossiles est en route, et qu'elle contraint tout partout. Elle oblige \u00e0 r\u00e9am\u00e9nager le territoire, \u00e0 modifier les activit\u00e9s productives, \u00e0 d\u00e9mondialiser pour partie, \u00e0 repenser l'agriculture, \u00e0 modifier l'industrie, bref \u00e0 \"tout changer\" puisque \"tout a chang\u00e9\" dans l'autre sens (voir la chose en dessins au besoin : https://lnkd.in/dtHn5pbD ). \n\nCela n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 compris pendant le quinquennat qui s'ach\u00e8ve, mais pas plus pendant ceux qui ont pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9. La faillite des anciens partis de gouvernement (PS et LR) a peut-\u00eatre un lien avec ca.\n\nSi nous sommes dans cette confusion aujourd'hui, nous le devons aussi... aux personnages \"civils\" qui ne cessent de dire que la croissance n'est qu'une affaire d'envie ou de volont\u00e9 (le dernier en date est le patron de la BPI dans cette vid\u00e9o : https://lnkd.in/evQae8tc ). Cette inversion du lien de causalit\u00e9 entre PIB et disponibilit\u00e9 des ressources physiques structure par construction des programmes politiques qui font tous le pari de la croissance (\u00e0 de rares exceptions pr\u00e8s), et nous laisse donc \"\u00e0 poil\" pour g\u00e9rer le monde tel qu'il est r\u00e9ellement, avec une \u00e9conomie qui ne peut mieux se porter que la disponibilit\u00e9 des ressources physiques qui lui sont n\u00e9cessaires.\n\nEst-ce que de ressortir cet article des placards va aider pour choisir dans 15 jours, et surtout pour construire quelque chose d'adapt\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque ensuite ?\n\nPeut-\u00eatre pas... ou peut-\u00eatre, puisque l'espoir fait vivre :). Dans tous les cas de figure, apr\u00e8s les pr\u00e9sidentielles viendront les l\u00e9gislatives, et quel que soit le choix du premier magistrat il y aura toujours une vie civile qui comptera beaucoup. En outre bien malin(e) qui peut aujourd'hui pr\u00e9dire \u00e0 quoi ressemblera l'Assembl\u00e9e qui, pour le choix du gouvernement, a fatalement le dernier mot. La fin de l'histoire n'est heureusement pas encore totalement \u00e9crite." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6919180048507785216,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6919180049367642112,urn:li:activity:6919180049367642112,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 60, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6919180049367642112,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6919180049367642112,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7958487467128533942)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtl.fr" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Changement climatique : qu'apporte le volet 3 du rapport du Giec ? by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/c-est-notre-planete/7900143101-changement-climatique-qu-apporte-le-volet-3-du-rapport-du-giec" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Changement climatique : qu'apporte le volet 3 du rapport du Giec ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6918863488702423040,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Derni\u00e8re chronique du Samedi matin sur RTL avant le premier tour. Elle part du dernier rapport du GIEC, celui du groupe 3, qui porte sur les marges de manoeuvre. \n\nCe rapport est par nature bien plus d\u00e9licat \u00e0 interpr\u00e9ter que les groupes 1 et 2. Reprenons du d\u00e9but : un rapport du GIEC part toujours de ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 dans les revues \u00e0 comit\u00e9 de lecture des disciplines couvertes. Pourle groupe 3, il s'agit tr\u00e8s souvent d'\u00e9conomie.\n\nCons\u00e9quence logique : la synth\u00e8se du groupe 3 \"incorpore\" donc - mais sans le rappeler - les limites de l'\u00e9conomie en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral. Cette discipline s'appuie avant tout sur des conventions humaines, ou sur des sc\u00e9narios qui partent d'hypoth\u00e8ses postul\u00e9es et non d\u00e9montr\u00e9es.\n\nPremi\u00e8re limite : parler prix est par d\u00e9finition supposer l'existence d'un march\u00e9 (c'est tellement \u00e9vident ; on l'oublie souvent !). Mais tout n'est pas marchand dans nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s. Pour revenir \u00e0 l'actualit\u00e9 du jour, le droit de vote n'a pas de valeur marchande, or l'avoir ou pas change un peu l'avenir...\n\nApr\u00e8s il y a des limites qui viennent non pas des outils utilis\u00e9s mais de nos \"oeill\u00e8res\" culturelles. Par exemple je ne connais pas de simulations \u00e9conomiques qui explorent une productivit\u00e9 qui d\u00e9croit \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s comme les \u00e9missions (parce que les \u00e9missions c'est de l'\u00e9nergie, l'\u00e9nergie c'est des machines, et ce qui a augment\u00e9 la productivit\u00e9 ce sont les machines !). Du coup la productivit\u00e9 augmente par hypoth\u00e8se dans tous les travaux \u00e9conomiques, et en cons\u00e9quence les marges de manoeuvre techniques sont syst\u00e9matiquement \"de moins en moins ch\u00e8res\". Est-ce si sur ?\n\nL'\u00e9conomie th\u00e9orique prend toujours le PIB (ou la productivit\u00e9 du travail et la population, ce qui revient au m\u00eame) comme donn\u00e9e d'entr\u00e9e des mod\u00e8les et non comme donn\u00e9e de sortie. Comme la croissance est d\u00e9sirable (!), le PIB est suppos\u00e9 croissant, et \"appelle\" des ressources conventionnellement disponibles. \n\nImpossible de voir venir les limites physiques \u00e0 la production - qui existent pourtant - avec un tel raisonnement !\n\nCela explique pourquoi on trouve p. 27 du r\u00e9sum\u00e9 pour d\u00e9cideur - https://lnkd.in/e_6VyaAy - l'hypoth\u00e8se que le PIB croit sans discontinuer jusqu'en 2100 quel que soit le sc\u00e9nario d'\u00e9mission :).\n\nAvant la publication de ce rapport, The Shift Project a envoy\u00e9 au GIEC une remarque pour souligner que :\n\n- les sc\u00e9narios hauts (SSP 8.5 voire 7.0 ; https://lnkd.in/ehJGzTmi ) supposent une disponibilit\u00e9 en combustibles fossiles qui pose question. \n\n- les sc\u00e9narios bas (SSP 2.6 et SSP 1.9) supposent un d\u00e9couplage entre \u00e9missions et PIB - et donc un d\u00e9couplage entre \u00e9missions et productivit\u00e9 du travail - qui pose aussi question.\n\nRappelons que le GIEC a pour mandat d'informer mais non de prescrire l'action (en anglais on dit \"policy relevant but not policy prescriptive\"). Mais l'\u00e9conomie ne permet pas de bien faire la diff\u00e9rence. 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"expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D0BAQHT7xmpkqz4BA/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "the-shift-project", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:1442492", "trackingId": "C7YZKhvKQ76QDGMaueH74w==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Demain on vote. Pour \u00e9clairer chaque personne qui glissera un bulletin de vote dans l'urne, Les Shifters (l'association des personnes physiques qui enrichissent/compl\u00e8tent/soutiennent/diffusent les travaux de The Shift Project) ont r\u00e9alis\u00e9 une analyse des programmes des candidat(e)s qui sollicitent nos suffrages.\n\nCette analyse a \u00e9t\u00e9 reprise par France Info (https://lnkd.in/ejcXBjEN ) qui a introduit une novation qui n'\u00e9tait pas dans la production des Shifters : un classement. Le jour de la publication de la page sur le site de France Info j'ai fait une erreur de d\u00e9butant : je suis parti de leur analyse et non de celle des Shifters (que je n'avais pas eue sous la main \u00e0 ce moment l\u00e0 ; mea culpa bis !). \n\nOr l'infographie de France Info r\u00e9sumant graphiquement les secteurs couverts n'est pas la m\u00eame que celle des shifters. Du coup le commentaire que j'ai fait sur le \"nombre de cases coch\u00e9es\" est partiellement erron\u00e9 sur le strict plan quantitatif.\n\nMon commentaire a par ailleurs \u00e9t\u00e9 interpr\u00e9t\u00e9 comme une \"bonne note\" pour Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon \u00e0 la fois par certains de ses partisans (https://lnkd.in/eYAvkYAm) et par certains de ses adversaires (https://lnkd.in/e37jnrC5 ).\n\nJe voudrais donc rappeler :\n\n- que je n'ai appel\u00e9 - et n'appellerai pas - \u00e0 voter pour une personne en particulier, pas plus que The Shift Project ou Les Shifters qui sont des associations a-partisanes\n\n- que l'analyse des Shifters inventorie l'existence de mesures dans un secteur mentionn\u00e9 dans la Strat\u00e9gie Nationale Bas Carbone. C'est d'abord un indicateur du temps pass\u00e9 par les r\u00e9dacteurs des programmes avant d'\u00eatre un indicateur de la pertinence de la mesure propos\u00e9e\n\n- que pour \u00e9tablir un classement il faut n\u00e9cessairement pond\u00e9rer les \"notes\" obtenues dans les diverses rubriques. Si \"on\" d\u00e9cide que le secteur transport a un coefficient 2 alors que le secteur \u00e9nergie a un coefficient 10 on n'obtient pas le m\u00eame classement que si on d\u00e9cide que le transport a 5 pendant que l'\u00e9nergie a 3. Or aucune pond\u00e9ration des secteurs n'a \u00e9t\u00e9 propos\u00e9e dans l'analyse des Shifters. \n\n- que pour obtenir une moyenne les secteurs doivent \u00eatre ind\u00e9pendants les uns des autres, sinon les liens de d\u00e9pendance peuvent conduire \u00e0 noter \u00e0 l'identique tous les programmes o\u00f9 un secteur qui conditionne tous les autres ne passe pas la rampe.\n\n- que cette analyse ne confronte pas les mesures propos\u00e9es au chapitre \"climat\" avec ce qui est propos\u00e9 par ailleurs par le/la candidat(e). Par exemple plusieurs candidat(e)s proposent explicitement de diminuer le prix des carburants (au moins M\u00e9lenchon, Macron et Le Pen), de sortir du nucl\u00e9aire, ou de favoriser la hausse de la consommation, des mesures qui rendent par la force des choses plus difficile d'atteindre les objectifs propos\u00e9s au titre du climat.\n\nSi le climat est bien pr\u00e9sent dans les discours, les programmes peinent \u00e0 mettre l'ensemble des propositions en coh\u00e9rence. Il faudra h\u00e9las faire avec au moment du choix. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Comment le reporting des risques physiques \u00e9volue avec la CSRD ? | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/analyse-csrd-reporting-risques-physiques" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Comment le reporting des risques physiques \u00e9volue avec la CSRD ? | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6918078031601278976,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "De la CSRD \u00e0 la NFRD... qu\u00e9saco ?\n\nNFRD signifie Non Financial Reporting Directive. Comme son nom l'indique, il s'agit d'une directive, c'est \u00e0 dire une \"loi\" europ\u00e9enne. Rappelons qu'une directive ne s'applique pas en l'\u00e9tat ni d\u00e8s son adoption par le parlement et le conseil europ\u00e9ens ; il faut qu'elle soit \"convertie\" en loi nationale par chaque Etat membre pour entrer en vigueur dans l'Etat concern\u00e9.\n\nElle concerne les informations de nature \"non financi\u00e8re\" qui doivent \u00eatre rendue publiques par les entreprises assujetties, dit autrement tout ce qui n'est pas exprim\u00e9 en monnaie dans les documents publi\u00e9s par l'entreprise pour rendre compte de son \u00e9tat. C'est dans ce vaste ensemble que l'on trouve tout ce qui rel\u00e8ve des donn\u00e9es environnementales et sociales.\n\nCette directive oblige actuellement \u00e0 une certaine transparence 11700 entreprises cot\u00e9es, banques et entreprises d\u2019assurance europ\u00e9ennes. Entr\u00e9e en vigueur en 2018, la NFRD a \u00e9t\u00e9 compl\u00e9t\u00e9e en 2019 avec une rubrique concernant le climat - non explicitement pr\u00e9sent \u00e0 l'origine - mais... qui est d'application facultative.\n\nComme les entreprises concern\u00e9es se r\u00e9v\u00e8lent un peu molles du genou pour jouer le jeu - seulement 4% des plus grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s cot\u00e9es de l\u2019UE d\u00e9crivent clairement les impacts physiques du changement climatique sur leur activit\u00e9 \u00e0 court, moyen et long terme - la Commission a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de passer \u00e0 la vitesse sup\u00e9rieure.\n\nElle a mis en chantier la Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive - CSRD - qui va obliger les entreprises concern\u00e9es \u00e0 publier des informations\u00a0sur les risques climatiques, physiques et de transition, qui affectent le fonctionnement de l\u2019entreprise. Le seuil est abaiss\u00e9 \u00e0 toutes les entreprises cot\u00e9es, ainsi qu\u2019aux entreprises d\u00e9passant au moins deux des trois seuils suivants\u00a0:\u00a0\n- 20 millions d\u2019euros de bilan\n- 40 millions d\u2019euros de chiffre d\u2019affaires\n- 250 salari\u00e9s\n\n49.000 entreprises de l'UE seront directement concern\u00e9es, et devront identifier les risques climatiques physiques les plus importants pour leur activit\u00e9, mais aussi mettre en \u0153uvre des solutions d\u2019adaptation r\u00e9duisant de mani\u00e8re substantielle les risques significatifs identifi\u00e9s.\n\nEvidemment, le Diable sera dans quelques d\u00e9tails :\n- les moyens - humains et budg\u00e9taires - consacr\u00e9s par les entreprises \u00e0 effectuer des investigations pertinentes (pas juste pour publier un chiffre pour avoir la paix, ce qui reste h\u00e9las le comportement le plus courant)\n- la capacit\u00e9 des autorit\u00e9s \u00e0 juger de la pertinence de ce qui est fait (la formation et la comp\u00e9tence du gendarme sont des sujets trop souvent n\u00e9glig\u00e9s)\n- la sanction en cas de non respect de la r\u00e8gle (la peur du gendarme reste une motivation certaine)\n\nEsp\u00e9rons que les entreprises comprendront que c'est \"pour leur bien\" que ces obligations s'appliquent, sans chercher \u00e0 faire le service minimum en pensant que c'est ainsi qu'elles optimisent l'allocation de moyens. L'actualit\u00e9 r\u00e9cente rappelle que les mauvaises surprises ca existe." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6918078031601278976,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6918078032247205888,urn:li:activity:6918078032247205888,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 15, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6918078032247205888,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6918078032247205888,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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qu'elle sort : la traduction dans la langue de Goethe du Monde sans Fin (outre-Rhin ca devient \"Welt ohne Ende\" ; j'ai au moins appris ca !).\n\nNous n'y esp\u00e9rons \u00e9videmment pas les m\u00eames chiffres de vente que dans l'Hexagone :), mais... nous esp\u00e9rons que nous pourrons compter, au moins pour partie, sur le m\u00eame processus \"d'aide \u00e0 la diffusion\" que celui qui a eu lieu dans notre pays.\n\nEn effet, dans sa version fran\u00e7aise ce livre a une particularit\u00e9 : il est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 par les \"militants de la cause\" comme le parfait cadeau \u00e0 offrir pour que le ou la r\u00e9cipiendaire prenne conscience d'un d\u00e9fi dont il ou elle cernait mal les contours. Apr\u00e8s quoi d'une part on peut esp\u00e9rer qu'il ou elle (r\u00e9cipiendaire) soit plus enclin(e) \u00e0 accepter les mesures \u00e0 prendre pour diminuer notre d\u00e9pendance aux hydrocarbures, et incidemment qu'il arr\u00eate de regarder la personne qui lui a offert l'ouvrage comme gentiment foldingue ou obs\u00e9d\u00e9e :)\n\nMalgr\u00e9 quelques pages sur le nucl\u00e9aire qui seront peut-\u00eatre encore plus un chiffon rouge outre Rhin que chez nous, j'esp\u00e8re qu'en Allemagne il en sera un peu de m\u00eame, et notamment que des fran\u00e7ais qui y sont install\u00e9s auront envie d'offrir cet ouvrage \u00e0 leurs connaissances germanophones exactement comme cela s'est fait de ce c\u00f4t\u00e9 ci de la fronti\u00e8re.\n\nPeut-\u00eatre m\u00eame verrons nous des groupes fran\u00e7ais qui y ont des filiales qui d\u00e9cideront d'offrir ce livre \u00e0 une large partie de leur personnel local, comme cela s'est d\u00e9j\u00e0 observ\u00e9 dans notre pays !\n\nDes traductions sont \u00e9galement en cours en espagnol, anglais, et... n\u00e9erlandais. 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Le gouvernement allemand pr\u00e9f\u00e8re implicitement financer un peu plus Poutine (et \u00e9mettre un peu plus de CO2), et argue de raisons r\u00e9glementaires, technologiques et pratiques pour maintenir la fermeture des r\u00e9acteurs qui doivent l'\u00eatre pour des raisons de promesses \"politiques\".\n\nLa SFEN propose un passage en revue de ces arguments pour montrer que ces fermetures ne sont pas in\u00e9luctables pour des raisons techniques. \n\nLes opposants au nucl\u00e9aire ont souvent mis en avant les risques de cette fili\u00e8re. Mais dans le monde qui est le n\u00f4tre, une option sans risque n'existe pas. Abandonner le nucl\u00e9aire comporte aussi des risques : celui de contribuer de mani\u00e8re plus importante au d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique, celui de se rendre plus d\u00e9pendant de pays dont le r\u00e9gime est discutable, celui de se rendre plus d\u00e9pendant de ressources fossiles ou m\u00e9talliques non disponibles sur son propre sol (avec \u00e9videmment la possibilit\u00e9 d'une rupture physique d'approvisionnement), celui d'augmenter les atteintes \u00e0 la biodiversit\u00e9 (en occupant plus d'espace), etc.\n\nQuand on supprime un risque, la bonne question est donc de savoir si nous n'en faisons pas appara\u00eetre un qui serait sup\u00e9rieur (auquel cas il faut conserver le risque que l'on pensait devoir supprimer !). Manifestement ce n'est pas comme cela que nos voisins ont pris le probl\u00e8me dans ce cas pr\u00e9cis (et cela nous arrive aussi plus souvent qu'\u00e0 notre tour...)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6917413733707231232,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6917413734428622848,urn:li:activity:6917413734428622848,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 97, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6917413734428622848,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6917413734428622848,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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modification sous l'influence des activit\u00e9s humaines (groupe 1), les impacts de cette modification sur les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes et les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s humaines (groupe 2), et enfin les moyens d'action (groupe 3).\n\nLe GIEC a une particularit\u00e9 : il se doit d'\u00eatre \"policy relevant\" (donc fournir des \u00e9l\u00e9ments permettant d'\u00e9clairer la prise de d\u00e9cision) mais pas \"policy prescriptive\" (il n'a donc pas \u00e0 recommander des politiques publiques, contrairement \u00e0 ce que sugg\u00e8rent nombre de commentaires - erron\u00e9s - d\u00e9j\u00e0 lus dans la presse). \n\nCette partie de son mandat est tr\u00e8s facile \u00e0 respecter pour le groupe 1 (la physique est r\u00e9gie par des lois qui ne d\u00e9pendent pas de nos valeurs morales ou conventions), assez facile pour le groupe 2 (les impacts d\u00e9pendent peu de nos valeurs morales ou conventions, m\u00eame si dans les mesures d'adaptation on va trouver des conventions ou pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences qui interviennent), mais... presque impossible pour une large partie de ce qui concerne le groupe 3.\n\nEn effet, c'est dans ce groupe que l'on trouve l'apport de l'\u00e9conomie \u00e0 la possible mani\u00e8re de r\u00e9soudre le probl\u00e8me. Or, parler d'\u00e9conomie, c'est avoir par d\u00e9finition choisi une convention qui tient les ressources pour sans valeur (rappelons que les prix n'int\u00e8grent pas, par d\u00e9finition, le \"cout de la nature\" : https://lnkd.in/gPsGK-F ). \n\nEclairer un choix sur la pr\u00e9servation d'un actif naturel avec des indicateurs qui tiennent la valeur de cet actif pour nul est d\u00e9j\u00e0 un pari os\u00e9. Mais, en plus, il n'existe pas de prix sans march\u00e9. Parler syst\u00e9matiquement prix est donc ilmplicitement supposer que l'\u00e9conomie de march\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e est compatible avec le \"sauvetage du climat\", alors que la norme et la r\u00e9glementation - qui ne cr\u00e9ent pas de prix explicites - sont d'autres moyens d'orienter nos choix. C'est tr\u00e8s proche de la prescription que de ne parler que des instruments de march\u00e9... \n\nLa raison \u00e0 cela ? 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"trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Pr\u00e9sidentielle 2022 : le climat, grand oubli\u00e9 de la campagne by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/c-est-notre-planete/7900140491-presidentielle-2022-le-climat-grand-oublie-de-la-campagne" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pr\u00e9sidentielle 2022 : le climat, grand oubli\u00e9 de la campagne" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6916641789458194432,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A part rousp\u00e9ter gentiment (un exercice usuel dans notre pays d'ex-gaulois), je ne suis pas sur que d'avoir rappel\u00e9 que l'absence de l'environnement de la campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle aura servi \u00e0 quelque chose, mais enfin c'est fait.\n\nManifestement, dire encore et toujours que nous sommes plong\u00e9s dans l'environnement, et que l'\u00e9tat de ce dernier conditionne par construction tout plan pour l'avenir prenant place dans d'autres domaines (notre \u00e9conomie, notre syst\u00e8me social, notre libert\u00e9 de d\u00e9placement, notre sant\u00e9, etc), produit un effet limit\u00e9 sur les propositions politiques, qui au mieux tentent de \"cocher les cases\" dans ce domaine l\u00e0 (https://lnkd.in/eu-5pgqD et https://lnkd.in/ed9fQTYh ), mais sans n\u00e9cessairement faire le lien avec le reste.\n\nCela continue \u00e0 ne pas chagriner les candidat(e)s plus que \u00e7a de marier croissance avec baisse des \u00e9missions de CO2 (alors que la charge de la preuve en pareil cas est de leur c\u00f4t\u00e9 ; voir par exemple https://lnkd.in/dDCe4YAm ou https://lnkd.in/gAthJhJ ), ou encore de planifier l'avenir pour un monde tranquille et sans cahots alors que le \"stress sur les ressources physiques\" va nous demander de piloter notre destin dans un monde volatil et chahut\u00e9.\n\nLa question qui se pose en pareil cas est de savoir qui sera a priori le ou la mieux plac\u00e9(e) pour tenir compte au plus t\u00f4t de l'in\u00e9luctable ou de l'\u00e9vident, n\u00e9cessairement en violation, alors, d'une partie des promesses faites. Et je vous avoue que m\u00eame moi n'ai pas de r\u00e9ponse \u00e9vidente... alors qu'il faut voter !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6916641789458194432,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6916641790192185344,urn:li:activity:6916641790192185344,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 86, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6916641790192185344,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6916641790192185344,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6916411188964696064,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'\u00e9t\u00e9 devrait \u00eatre \"normal\" pour l'a\u00e9rien en Europe, titrent Les Echos.\n\nQuestion : qu'est-ce qu'une situation \"normale\" pour ce secteur, qui \u00e9met - selon la mani\u00e8re de compter - autant que la marine marchande, voire autant que les camions dans le monde, et qui utilise presque 10% du p\u00e9trole mondial, pour des usages de loisirs \u00e0 75%, et alors que les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires doivent baisser de 5% par an pour que la limite des 2\u00b0C en 2100 soit tenue ?\n\nAu regard du climat le trafic pr\u00e9-covid ne peut pas \u00eatre \"normal\" : dans son rapport \"Pouvoir voler en 2050\" (https://lnkd.in/d3h_4QA ) The Shift Project indiquait que, en ne faisant pas de pari intenable sur la technologie, le trafic devait baisser de 1% par an d\u00e8s maintenant pour que l'aviation soit en ligne avec l'accord de Paris.\n\nAu regard du p\u00e9trole le trafic actuel ne peut pas \u00eatre normal : les 16 premiers producteurs de p\u00e9trole dans le monde hors Br\u00e9sil et Canada devraient voir leur production baisser de 50% d'ici \u00e0 2050 (https://lnkd.in/dwPcgve ). Au titre de quoi l'avion - r\u00e9serv\u00e9 \u00e0 du loisir pour l'essentiel - devrait-il \u00eatre prioritaire sur les camions et bateaux (qui acheminent notre nourriture, nos v\u00eatements, nos meubles, notre \u00e9lectrom\u00e9nager, nos minerais et m\u00e9taux, nos mat\u00e9riaux de construction, notre bois, etc) ou m\u00eame sur les voitures, dont les 2/3 du kilom\u00e9trage concernent des d\u00e9placements du quotidien ? \n\nSi leur part dans le p\u00e9trole n'a pas de raison d'augmenter, alors le p\u00e9trole disponible pour les avions devrait en gros \u00eatre divis\u00e9 par 2 dans les 30 ans, m\u00eame si le climat n'est pas un sujet.\n\nAu vu de ce contexte, reposons nous la question : un trafic \"normal\" ne devrait-il pas \u00eatre, en fait, un trafic d\u00e9croissant ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6916411188964696064,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Au vu de la m\u00e9thode employ\u00e9e pour les autres r\u00e9ponses, \u00e0 chacun(e) de se faire une id\u00e9e." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6915711803893116928,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6915711804690051072,urn:li:activity:6915711804690051072,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 14, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6915711804690051072,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6915711804690051072,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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l'association. Nous avons publi\u00e9 un commentaire g\u00e9n\u00e9ral sur les contributions ainsi qu'un avis d\u00e9taill\u00e9 par lettre.\n\nLes deux analyses convergent largement mais r\u00e9servent quand m\u00eame quelques surprises. En particulier, certaines lettres sont plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9es que les programmes, alors que d'autres ne mettent pas en avant les propositions contenues dans les programmes.\n\nMais l'avis g\u00e9n\u00e9ral qui se d\u00e9gage est que nous restons encore assez loin :\n- d'une bonne compr\u00e9hension du probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter : globalement nous allons devoir g\u00e9rer plus de cons\u00e9quences adverses avec moins de moyens mat\u00e9riels, or nombre de candidats proposent en pratique des solutions du monde infini pour r\u00e9gler des probl\u00e8mes du monde fini, \n- d'une int\u00e9gration d'un monde tr\u00e8s changeant dans les plans pour l'avenir ; en particulier \"l'adaptation\" est tr\u00e8s peu pr\u00e9sente dans les r\u00e9ponses\n- d'une strat\u00e9gie de r\u00e9ponse quantifi\u00e9e et \u00e9ch\u00e9anc\u00e9e int\u00e9grant des al\u00e9as qui ne manqueront pas de survenir.\n\nIl ne reste qu'une grosse semaine jusqu'au premier tour. La probabilit\u00e9 que les copies s'am\u00e9liorent significativement d'ici l\u00e0 est donc tr\u00e8s faible. Une des questions pos\u00e9es est alors de savoir qui, parmi les candidat(e)s, sera \u00e0 m\u00eame de se poser les bonnes questions une fois \u00e9lu(e), si ces questions n'ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 pos\u00e9es avant." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6914593028875649024,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6914593029706129410,urn:li:activity:6914593029706129410,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 56, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6914593029706129410,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6914593029706129410,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": 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Crise climatique : on a \u00e9pluch\u00e9 les programmes des candidats \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle pour voir s'ils respectent l'accord de Paris by francetvinfo.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/programmes-election-presidentielle-2022/programmes-climat/exclusif-crise-climatique-on-a-epluche-les-programmes-des-candidats-a-la-presidentielle-pour-voir-s-ils-respectent-l-accord-de-paris_5033276.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "EXCLUSIF. Crise climatique : on a \u00e9pluch\u00e9 les programmes des candidats \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle pour voir s'ils respectent l'accord de Paris" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6914458314923782144,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 55, "length": 12, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:13651404", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:13651404", "name": "Les Shifters", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1629109484661?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=R27axQl2IngP9wy5-c-j-bqyZJLgRJAQZCPREnDHIr4", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1629109484661?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=cv_DzzKYuZxt-bdCWkAj_3yb2GKDKksNUWr_o93ansM", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1629109484661?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=6dofux6TPkbWW5VuLLmjBsUAY3kDM0OQz5aNswUrLNA", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C560BAQFTN0BHZgn0qw/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "les-shifters", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:13651404", "trackingId": "sowch5CWTQmgK5bkvw5jig==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Plus de 200 pages d'analyses : c'est ce qu'ont r\u00e9alis\u00e9 Les Shifters, l'association des personnes \"cousine\" du Shift Project, pour \u00e9valuer l'angle climat des programmes des candidat(e)s aux pr\u00e9sidentielles.\n\nPour cela, les programmes publi\u00e9s ont \u00e9t\u00e9 confront\u00e9s \u00e0 la strat\u00e9gie nationale bas carbone, et, pour un certain nombre de secteurs (transports, agriculture, b\u00e2timent, for\u00eat, industrie, \u00e9nergie, d\u00e9chets) ou d'axes transverses (notamment formation/reconversion), les Shifters ont regard\u00e9 les mesures propos\u00e9es.\n\nOn peut ainsi voir qui affiche une intention sans mesure pr\u00e9cise, qui propose une mesure mais sans quantification, qui propose une mesure quantifi\u00e9e et calend\u00e9e (l\u00e0 ca devient une exception plus que la r\u00e8gle), qui compte dans quelles proportions sur la technologie et la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9, qui propose de proc\u00e9der par obligation et qui par incitation, etc.\n\nA ce stade, ce qui n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 fait de mani\u00e8re syst\u00e9matique a \u00e9t\u00e9 de jauger de la compatibilit\u00e9 des mesures propos\u00e9es avec le reste des promesses du m\u00eame ou de la m\u00eame candidat(e). Parfois, une contradiction \"\u00e9vidente\" a n\u00e9anmoins \u00e9t\u00e9 relev\u00e9e. Par exemple le RN affiche \u00e0 la fois l'intention de d\u00e9carboner les transports et une proposition de baisse de la fiscalit\u00e9 des carburants. En pareil cas il est fait remarquer que ces deux mesures sont antagonistes.\n\nGlobalement, aucun des programmes n'est totalement compatible avec le probl\u00e8me pos\u00e9. Aucun ne prend compl\u00e8tement acte du fait que nous allons devoir g\u00e9rer plus de probl\u00e8mes avec moins de moyens. Aucun ne part du principe que nous allons devoir g\u00e9rer un monde de plus en plus volatil (l'enchainement baisse de l'\u00e9nergie -> baisse de la production -> baisse de nos moyens mat\u00e9riels d'action est tr\u00e8s peu pris en compte par exemple).\n\nSouvent les orientations restent au stade des d\u00e9clarations mais il n'y a pas de plan pr\u00e9cis. Par exemple \"r\u00e9industrialiser la France\", avanc\u00e9 par de nombreux candidats, ne pr\u00e9cise pas souvent s'il s'agit des engrais ou des machines \u00e0 laver, des v\u00eatements ou des meubles, de la m\u00e9tallurgie ou des scanners. Etc.\n\nBref, si la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d'une d\u00e9carbonation commence \u00e0 \u00eatre largement partag\u00e9e, les implications \u00e9conomiques de la d\u00e9crue fossile sont beaucoup moins bien comprises, et la vision d'ensemble - et surtout l'aspect op\u00e9rationnel - reste globalement en de\u00e7\u00e0 de qui serait pertinent pour avancer \u00e0 la bonne vitesse.\n\nIl n'en reste pas moins possible de classer les candidat(e)s au regard de ce crit\u00e8re, en regardant combien de cases coche chacun(e), ce qui est quand m\u00eame une indication de la quantit\u00e9 de travail qui a pris place au sein de chaque formation. Comme cet exercice ne pond\u00e8re pas les cases coch\u00e9es (chacun(e) d\u00e9cidera si c'est plus important de cocher la case \u00e9nergie ou transports que agriculture ou logement), nous n'en tirons \u00e9videmment pas de consignes de vote. Mais nous esp\u00e9rons que cet exercice sera utile pour \u00e9clairer les choix et ce qu'il reste de d\u00e9bat d'ici au premier tour." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6914458314923782144,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6914458316593098752,urn:li:activity:6914458316593098752,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 186, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6914458316593098752,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6914458316593098752,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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d\u00e9placements de loisirs, repr\u00e9sentent en gros un tiers de la mobilit\u00e9 en voiture, voiture qui inversement est utilis\u00e9e pour 85% des distances parcourues par les fran\u00e7ais(es) pour ces d\u00e9placements longs.\n\nAvant la voiture (et l'avion), la mobilit\u00e9 longue distance des habitants de ce pays \u00e9tait bien plus r\u00e9duite. Comment continuer \u00e0 s'\u00e9loigner de son domicile dans un monde sans p\u00e9trole ? C'est autour de cette question que nous vous convions dans un peu plus d'une semaine.\n\nIl est clair que dans ce domaine la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 signifiera pour partie l'inversion de ce que le p\u00e9trole nous a donn\u00e9 : plus loin, plus vite, moins cher. Exprim\u00e9 en minutes de temps de travail, le prix d'un billet d'avion a par exemple \u00e9t\u00e9 divis\u00e9 par un facteur 5 \u00e0 10 (selon les destinations) en quelques d\u00e9cennies.\n\nComment aborder ce d\u00e9fi, psychologique bien avant d'\u00eatre technique ? 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facilement, comme je le rappelle dans cette chronique du Samedi matin sur RTL, une hausse qui envoie l'argent hors de France qu'une hausse qui laisse l'argent en France.\n\nEt, quand bien m\u00eame nous ne le voudrions pas - c'est le deuxi\u00e8me volet de mes 3 minutes r\u00e9glementaires :) - il va de toute fa\u00e7on falloir apprendre \u00e0 faire avec moins de p\u00e9trole : comme l'a expliqu\u00e9 The Shift Project au terme d'une analyse assez fouill\u00e9e confi\u00e9e \u00e0 des hommes de l'art sur base d'un inventaire de l'ensemble des gisements - exploit\u00e9s ou non - dans le monde (https://lnkd.in/dwPcgve ), la quantit\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole dont l'Europe va disposer va baisser \u00e0 l'avenir, parce que l'essentiel des pays producteurs dans le monde sont en d\u00e9clin ou y seront bient\u00f4t.\n\nComme ces pays r\u00e9serveront globalement une fraction croissante de leur production \u00e0 leur propre population, il est m\u00eame vraisemblable que les importations 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Quand un souhait de baisse des hydrocarbures il y a, c'est uniquement au nom du climat qu'elle est propos\u00e9e. 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"textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans les infrastructures qui structurent le fonctionnement des pays en ce d\u00e9but de 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle, il y a notamment les syst\u00e8mes \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques. Les \u00e9v\u00e9nements survenant actuellement \u00e0 l'est de l'Europe montrent bien l'inertie associ\u00e9e \u00e0 leur \u00e9volution : quand on s'est cr\u00e9\u00e9 un r\u00e9seau de gaz pour alimenter des appareils de chauffage au gaz, de la production industrielle au gaz et de la production \u00e9lectrique au gaz, on ne change pas cela en une semaine.\n\nIl en va de m\u00eame avec les transports : quand on a structur\u00e9 les d\u00e9placements de personnes et de marchandises avec des routes (construites et entretenues avec du p\u00e9trole, puisque ce dernier fait \u00e0 la fois fonctionner les engins de chantier et fournit le rev\u00eatement - le bitume) pour y faire circuler des v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s tous dot\u00e9s d'un moteur \u00e0 combustion interne, on ne se passe pas du p\u00e9trole en une semaine non plus.\n\nLe d\u00e9bat qui a eu lieu au dernier forum des travaux publics entre Xavier Neuschwander et votre serviteur portait justement sur la possibilit\u00e9 de r\u00e9orienter le secteur des infrastructures en faveur d'une \u00e9conomie d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e. En effet, l'utilisation des infrastructures de toute nature situ\u00e9es en France est \u00e0 l'origine de la moiti\u00e9 de l'empreinte carbone de notre pays. D\u00e9carboner cet usage est donc indispensable, tout comme il est indispensable de le planifier puisque, \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence, supprimer les \u00e9missions associ\u00e9es \u00e0 court terme ne peut se faire qu'en se privant du service associ\u00e9, perspective que peu de gens acceptent.\n\nDans le d\u00e9bat, il a \u00e9t\u00e9 question \u00e0 la fois du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (qui n'a pas de chapitre explicitement d\u00e9di\u00e9 aux infrastructures, mais ces derni\u00e8res sont pr\u00e9sentes en filigrane un peu partout), et d'une analyse que Carbone 4 a publi\u00e9e il y a quelques mois sur le sujet (https://lnkd.in/eYXaufiz ).\n\nLa crise ukrainienne ne sera pas la seule que nous allons avoir sur les 30 ans qui viennent, malheureusement. A quelque chose malheur est bon : il faudrait au moins qu'elle serve de d\u00e9clencheur puissant \u00e0 une nouvelle trajectoire pour le pays et pour l'Europe (trajectoire dont la \"s\u00e9curisation des approvisionnements en hydrocarbures aupr\u00e8s d'autres fournisseurs\" ne peut constituer qu'un palliatif de tr\u00e8s court terme)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6913785816892751872,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6913785817542868992,urn:li:activity:6913785817542868992,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 17, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6913785817542868992,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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(nationaux, territoriaux, et des \u00e9tablissements publics), demandant \"une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration urgente de la d\u00e9carbonation du fonctionnement de l\u2019Etat, des collectivit\u00e9s territoriales et de tous les \u00e9tablissements publics\".\n\nRepr\u00e9sentant 20% de l'emploi en France, l'Administration publique au sens large est en effet un important acheteur (v\u00e9hicules, b\u00e2timents, nourriture, objets de toute nature), et, par ailleurs, et par nature, le prescripteur essentiel des r\u00e8gles de la vie en commun. \n\nPour mieux exercer la deuxi\u00e8me fonction, les initiateurs de l'appel consid\u00e8rent qu'il est indispensable que le premier volet soit fait en accord avec ce qui sera demand\u00e9 aux autres. Acheter bas-carbone, se d\u00e9placer bas carbone, soigner ou enseigner bas carbone, tout cela est indispensable si l'on veut par ailleurs \u00eatre cr\u00e9dible pour que le reste de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 prenne le m\u00eame chemin.\n\nLes signataires de l'appel demandant donc au prochain gouvernement (pour l'existant c'est un peu r\u00e2p\u00e9 !) de mettre l'Administration publique \"en r\u00e8gle\" avec la d\u00e9carbonation du pays sans tarder, d\u00e8s les \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielle et l\u00e9gislatives pass\u00e9es. Ils \u00e9crivent notamment \"Comment [la puissance publique]\u00a0serait-elle l\u00e9gitime, cr\u00e9dible et pertinente pour impulser, via les politiques publiques coh\u00e9rentes, [la transition bas-carbone de l\u2019\u00e9conomie et de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise] si elle n\u2019a pas engag\u00e9 un processus de d\u00e9carbonation volontariste et ambitieux pour elle-m\u00eame ?\". La demande renvoie \u00e9videmment aux nombreuses propositions contenues dans le rapport \"D\u00e9carboner l'Administration publique\" qui est lui-m\u00eame un des volets du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf ).\n\nSi vous \u00eates agent public et que vous estimez qu'il est indispensable que la lutte contre le changement climatique soit partie int\u00e9grante de votre quotidien professionnel ; si vous voulez que cela devienne une vraie priorit\u00e9, avec les d\u00e9cisions, les objectifs, l\u2019accompagnement (dont la formation) et les moyens que cela implique, cet appel est pour vous, \u00e0 la fois pour le signer bien s\u00fbr :), et pour le relayer \u00e9galement." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6913419958920073216,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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A cause des russes, voil\u00e0 qu'il faudrait s'en passer rapidement. En fait, russes ou pas, et m\u00eame climat ou pas, il va falloir progressivement s'en passer.\n\nLa raison de base est simple : il faut de quelques dizaines \u00e0 quelques centaines de millions d'ann\u00e9es pour que le p\u00e9trole et le gaz se forment \u00e0 partir de r\u00e9sidus de vie marine (https://lnkd.in/djAcDUP ). De ce fait, en premi\u00e8re approximation ces ressources sont non renouvelables \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle des temps historiques. \n\nPour extraire du p\u00e9trole et du gaz du sous-sol, il faut commencer par savoir o\u00f9 ils se trouvent. Difficile de faire sortir un p\u00e9trole sans savoir o\u00f9 il est !\n\nOr, depuis le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1980, les d\u00e9couvertes annuelles sont devenues inf\u00e9rieures, puis tr\u00e8s inf\u00e9rieures \u00e0 la production. En agr\u00e9geant p\u00e9trole et gaz, nous extrayons de terre un peu moins de 60 milliards de barils (ou d'\u00e9quivalent baril pour le gaz) par an. En face de cela, les d\u00e9couvertes de ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es se prom\u00e8nent entre 5 et 15 milliards de barils ou \u00e9quivalent baril par an (graphique ci-dessous ; source Rystad Energy). \n\nQuand le prix du baril augmente fortement, il devient plus rentable pour les p\u00e9troliers de faire sortir de terre des hydrocarbures \"compliqu\u00e9s\" (petits gisements, et/ou tr\u00e8s profonds, et/ou gaz tr\u00e8s \u00e9loign\u00e9 des infrastructures de transport, p\u00e9trole de \"mauvaise qualit\u00e9\", etc). Du coup ils relancent l'exploration dans l'espoir de trouver \"n'importe quoi\", et les d\u00e9couvertes, m\u00eame insuffisantes pour contrebalancer l'extraction, augmentent un peu dans les ann\u00e9es qui suivent. \n\nA l'inverse, quand le prix du baril baisse, ces efforts diminuent aussi, et en cons\u00e9quence logique les d\u00e9couvertes baissent par rapport \u00e0 la tendance de fond.\n\nMais dans tous les cas de figure, on voit bien que le stock extractible identifi\u00e9 diminue n\u00e9cessairement d\u00e8s lors que les d\u00e9couvertes sont tr\u00e8s inf\u00e9rieures \u00e0 l'extraction. C'est ce qui a conduit The Shift Project, sur la base d'une analyse effectu\u00e9e sur une base de donn\u00e9es portant sur l'ensemble des gisements (exploit\u00e9s ou pas) dans le monde, et confi\u00e9e notamment \u00e0 deux anciens dirigeants de l'exploration-production de Total, \u00e0 conclure que le \"sevrage p\u00e9trolier\" attendait l'Europe - et en fait l'humanit\u00e9 - pour les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir, Ukraine ou pas : https://lnkd.in/dwPcgve\n\nOr le p\u00e9trole, c'est l'\u00e9conomie. Sans p\u00e9trole pas de transports abondants, donc pas de syst\u00e8me productif op\u00e9rationnel et fin des chaines de valeur mondialis\u00e9es. C'est pour cela que depuis des d\u00e9cennies la variation du PIB mondial suit tr\u00e8s exactement la variation de la production mondiale de p\u00e9trole. La conclusion logique de tout cela est que le prochain mandat pr\u00e9sidentiel - et les suivants - doit pouvoir \"flotter dans une Europe en d\u00e9croissance\"." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6913022966314237952,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6913022967245381632,urn:li:activity:6913022967245381632,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 73, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6913022967245381632,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6913022967245381632,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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compl\u00e8te du nucl\u00e9aire le plus vite possible).\n\nPourquoi certains politiques deviennent-ils moins hostiles \u00e0 l'atome d\u00e9sormais ? Pour une raison assez simple : parce que l'avis de la population \u00e9volue. Ce n'est pas \"les faits\" qui les conduisent \u00e0 changer d'avis (sinon ce serait fait depuis longtemps !) : c'est l'opinion.\n\nEt c'est probablement pour cette m\u00eame raison que l'Allemagne, elle, reste sur sa position historique en ce qui concerne cette source d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. La population y \u00e9volue probablement moins vite en faveur de cette modalit\u00e9 de production qu'ailleurs.\n\nComme le soulignait un post r\u00e9cent de Maxence Cordiez, cela place les Verts allemands, \u00e0 la fois contre le nucl\u00e9aire civil mais aussi pour la paix, dans une situation d\u00e9sormais schizophr\u00e9nique : le refus du nucl\u00e9aire pour le choix du gaz (la puissance \u00e9lectrique install\u00e9e au gaz a augment\u00e9 de 50% en 20 ans : https://lnkd.in/dshZdp7X ) conduit aujourd'hui \u00e0 plus financer l'effort de guerre de Poutine que si le choix inverse avait \u00e9t\u00e9 fait.\n\nA plus long terme, cette position conduira \u00e0 une autre schizophr\u00e9nie : on se rendra compte que le refus du nucl\u00e9aire a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 conserver plus de combustibles fossiles dans la production \u00e9lectrique, ce qui cr\u00e9e plus de changement climatique et d\u00e9truit plus de biodiversit\u00e9.\n\nMais ce changement, quand il survient, ne permet pour 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6912473040362565633,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "510 pages : c'est ce qu'il a fallu \u00e0 la Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), le gendarme boursier am\u00e9ricain, pour pr\u00e9ciser les obligations auxquelles les entreprises cot\u00e9es aux USA vont devoir satisfaire en mati\u00e8re de transparence sur leurs risques climat, de transition et physiques.\n\n \"Risque\" : le mot est prononc\u00e9. Jusqu'\u00e0 maintenant, la publication d'informations sur les \u00e9missions \u00e9tait g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement vue comme relevant de la \"responsabilit\u00e9 sociale et environnementale\" des entreprises.\n\nEn pratique cela veut donc dire que cela rel\u00e8ve du suppl\u00e9ment d'\u00e2me, de la bonne volont\u00e9, et du reste pour le moment ces publications sont r\u00e9gies par des recommandations (comme la TCFD ou m\u00eame l'article 173 - qui permet assez facilement de donner le change - et non par des obligations dures. \n\nMais, aux USA, parler de risque pour l'actionnaire, c'est regarder la possible d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation de son patrimoine, et par ailleurs l'actionnaire est souvent un (futur) retrait\u00e9. C'est donc un sujet avec lequel on ne plaisante pas. \n\nA supposer que le p\u00e9rim\u00e8tre des obligations soit bon (ne pas se limiter aux \u00e9missions directes, ne pas autoriser la compensation avant publication, etc), ce que je confesse ne pas avoir encore regard\u00e9, le fait de voir les \u00e9missions comme un facteur de risque sur la valeur patrimoniale serait un levier plus puissant que la RSE pour faire remonter le sujet du climat d'un cran ou deux dans la hi\u00e9rarchie des entreprises. \n\nSi on parle de risque pour l'actionnaire, on parle en effet possiblement de proc\u00e8s, de d\u00e9sinvestissement et d'abaissement de la note de cr\u00e9dit, et d'autres bricoles de ce genre qui permettront d'avoir l'oreille du dirigeant.\n\nCette publication de la SEC illustre aussi une chose essentielle : l'Europe ne doit pas avoir peur d'innover. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8158517325339082783)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "msn.com \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Plains drought to curb U.S. wheat harvest, adding to global supply worries by msn.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/plains-drought-to-curb-us-wheat-harvest-adding-to-global-supply-worries/ar-AAV3kva" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Plains drought to curb U.S. wheat harvest, adding to global supply worries" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6911941403262513152,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Alors que le conflit \u00e0 l'Est de l'Europe va limiter la production et/ou les exportations de c\u00e9r\u00e9ales (bl\u00e9, ma\u00efs) ou ol\u00e9agineux (tournesol), un autre gros producteur mondial fait face \u00e0 des conditions de s\u00e9cheresse qui ne cessent de s'intensifier (voir la carte sur https://lnkd.in/dQVN83A). En cons\u00e9quence de quoi la production de bl\u00e9 d'hiver est incertaine, ce qui contribue aussi \u00e0 faire monter les prix.\n\nParadoxe : en Chine ce sont des exc\u00e8s d'eau au moment de la plantation qui menacent la r\u00e9colte de bl\u00e9 d'hiver (https://lnkd.in/eNcqc6xx). Pour le coup, ce ne sont pas les exportations chinoises qui sont menac\u00e9es, car ce pays est un importateur, mais cela va in\u00e9vitablement aussi exercer une pression sur les prix.\n\nA un moment ou \u00e0 un autre, il va falloir se poser la question de l'adaptation \u00e0 une production qui ne va plus augmenter, voire baisser. C'est d'autant plus vrai que les auxiliaires de la production agricole \"moderne\" sont le p\u00e9trole et le gaz, pour la m\u00e9canisation et les engrais (les engrais azot\u00e9s sont faits avec de l'ammoniac, lui-m\u00eame fait avec de l'hydrog\u00e8ne... largement produit \u00e0 partir de gaz).\n\nUne large partie des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales sert \u00e0 nourrir du b\u00e9tail en \u00e9levage intensif. Une autre partie sert \u00e0 nourrir... nos voitures (c'est le cas de 40% du ma\u00efs am\u00e9ricain), ce qui est aussi la destination d'une large partie des betteraves \u00e0 sucre (le sucre sert \u00e0 faire de l'\u00e9thanol substituant l'essence) ou du colza (qui sert \u00e0 fabriquer un substitut au gazole).\n\nDans le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf), la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 tous ces probl\u00e8mes combine :\n- une baisse de la production de viande (ce qui permet d'avoir moins de c\u00e9r\u00e9ales \u00e0 cultiver)\n- moins de voitures (il faut baisser le nombre d'objets de 1 tonne ou plus de masse unitaire en circulation ; c'est physique !) ce qui permet d'avoir moins de v\u00e9g\u00e9taux \u00e0 cultiver pour les substituts au p\u00e9trole\n- un recours tr\u00e8s mod\u00e9r\u00e9 aux produits d'origine agricole pour l'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique d'une mani\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, pour lib\u00e9rer de la pression sur les sols.\n\nRien de tout cela ne se met en place en une semaine \u00e9videmment. Ce qui signifie que, \u00e0 court terme, les pressions \u00e0 la baisse sur les productions agricoles vont cr\u00e9er des troubles - et une forte volatilit\u00e9 des prix - l\u00e0 o\u00f9 l'ajustement se fera de mani\u00e8re forc\u00e9e. Si c'est un ajustement forc\u00e9 \u00e0 la baisse dans les estomacs des gens qui n'ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 pas beaucoup \u00e0 manger, il y aura h\u00e9las des probl\u00e8mes de disette ou de famine." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6911941403262513152,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6911941403988127744,urn:li:activity:6911941403988127744,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 84, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6911941403988127744,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6911941403988127744,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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transparence" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6911739762877841408,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ce n'est pas une association militante qui le dit, mais la banque centrale europ\u00e9enne : une \u00e9valuation sur 109 grandes banques commerciales de la zone euro montre que ces derni\u00e8res ne sont pas au bon niveau en ce qui concerne la gestion de leurs risques climatiques, et, d'apr\u00e8s Les Echos, \"ne r\u00e9pondent pas pleinement aux attentes de la supervision\".\n\nDe quels risques parle-t-on ? Il y en a deux principalement en mati\u00e8re de climat. Le premier est dit \"de transition\". Il correspond \u00e0 la situation ou un pr\u00eat ou une action vont perdre de la valeur, parce que l'emprunteur se retrouve en d\u00e9faut partiel ou total \u00e0 cause d'un contexte r\u00e9glementaire qui l'emp\u00eache d'exercer son activit\u00e9 comme avant. Par exemple si une banque d\u00e9tient des actions d'un op\u00e9rateur de r\u00e9seau de gaz et que la collectivit\u00e9 d\u00e9cide que le gaz ne doit plus \u00eatre utilis\u00e9, ces actions perdent en valeur.\n\nOr les actifs d'une banque sont essentiellement constitu\u00e9s d'obligations - qui sont des \"morceaux de pr\u00eat\" - et de pr\u00eats \"ordinaires\" (le pr\u00eat est au passif de l'emprunteur mais \u00e0 l'actif de la banque !), avec quelques actions et autres titres (immobilier par exemple). Si une fraction trop importante de ces actifs sont impact\u00e9s \u00e0 la baisse par les contraintes de la transition, la banque est en risque.\n\nUne variante du risque de transition est que ce ne soit pas la r\u00e9glementation qui emp\u00eache d'\u00e9mettre du CO2, mais un d\u00e9faut d'approvisionnement en combustibles fossiles (suivez mon regard du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la situation actuelle), qui finira par arriver de toute fa\u00e7on puisque ces combustibles sont \u00e9puisables.\n\nLe deuxi\u00e8me risque est dit \"physique\". Il correspond au risque de d\u00e9faut li\u00e9 au fait que l'entreprise ou le pays dont on d\u00e9tient une obligation, un pr\u00eat ou une action pourrait voir ses op\u00e9rations impact\u00e9es \u00e0 cause des cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique.\n\nAppr\u00e9cier ces risques est compliqu\u00e9. Il faut bien comprendre l'ensemble de la chaine de valeur dans laquelle s'ins\u00e8re l'entit\u00e9 que l'on regarde, puisque sa vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 est aussi celle de ses clients ou fournisseurs. Cela demande des comp\u00e9tences, des donn\u00e9es, du temps, et pire encore d'envisager des \u00e9ventualit\u00e9s d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ables, chose que peu de gens aiment faire. Et appr\u00e9cier si les banques sont au bon niveau suppose des comp\u00e9tences encore plus importantes du c\u00f4t\u00e9 du r\u00e9gulateur, soit dit en passant.\n\nDu coup, il n'est pas tr\u00e8s \u00e9tonnant que le syst\u00e8me financier dans son ensemble n'y soit pas encore. Par contre, ne pas mettre les moyens pour y \u00eatre rapidement serait encore plus \u00e9tonnant, maintenant que nous savons ce que nous savons." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6911739762877841408,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6911739763653791744,urn:li:activity:6911739763653791744,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 27, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6911739763653791744,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6911739763653791744,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9128410024266182055)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtl.fr" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Guerre en Ukraine : pourquoi il pourrait y avoir des cons\u00e9quences sur les pays arabes ? by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/c-est-notre-planete/7900135740-guerre-en-ukraine-pourquoi-il-pourrait-y-avoir-des-consequences-sur-les-pays-arabes" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Guerre en Ukraine : pourquoi il pourrait y avoir des cons\u00e9quences sur les pays arabes ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6911607355583442944,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pour une fois, j'esp\u00e8re bien me tromper. J'ai indiqu\u00e9 lors de ma derni\u00e8re chronique sur RTL - Samedi dernier - que la conjonction qui est en train de se mettre en place pour les pays du Maghreb ressemble \u00e9trangement \u00e0 ce qui s'est observ\u00e9 au moment du d\u00e9clenchement du \"Printemps Arabe\", il y a une dizaine d'ann\u00e9es. \n\nA l'\u00e9poque, les troubles s'\u00e9taient d\u00e9clench\u00e9s \u00e0 cause d'un prix de l'alimentation devenu tr\u00e8s difficile \u00e0 supporter pour une partie de la population, en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 une production domestique insuffisante encore affaiblie par une s\u00e9cheresse croissante (coh\u00e9rente avec ce qui est attendu dans le cadre du r\u00e9chauffement climatique), des importations dont les prix avaient fortement augment\u00e9, et des recettes \u00e0 l'exportation - notamment le tourisme - pas au mieux \u00e0 cause de la \"crise financi\u00e8re\" de 2008 : https://lnkd.in/gaY7nrE\n\nQu'observe-t-on aujourd'hui ? Une s\u00e9cheresse qui continue \u00e0 \u00eatre pr\u00e9sente voire qui s'intensifie (voir par exemple https://lnkd.in/efJaRyx9 ou https://lnkd.in/eyqiqNta ) ; un prix des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales qui s'approchait d\u00e9j\u00e0 de son niveau de 2010 avant la guerre en Ukraine (https://lnkd.in/evf6a5ye ) et qui pourrait encore monter, et un tourisme un peu d\u00e9prim\u00e9 par le covid. \n\nSi l'on s'int\u00e9resse aux flux physiques, dans les gros acheteurs de bl\u00e9 russe/ukrainien, il y a notamment l'Egypte. \n\nBref cette chronique \u00e9tait essentiellement l\u00e0 pour rappeler que, dans notre monde interconnect\u00e9 et mondialis\u00e9, tout probl\u00e8me \"local\" peut toujours s'\u00e9tendre ailleurs, et ces effets domino seront d'autant plus amples que la situation de d\u00e9part comporte peu de marges." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6911607355583442944,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huKlLxPP_sg" }, "description": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pendant la campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle, Intercommunalit\u00e9s de France et La Gazette des communes s'associent pour faire \u00e9changer et d\u00e9battre des pr\u00e9sidents d'intercommunalit\u00e9s, repr\u00e9sentant la diversit\u00e9 des territoires, avec un intellectuel. Avec Jean-Marc..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Les intercommunalit\u00e9s face \u00e0 Jean-Marc Jancovici \u2013 \u00c9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle 2022" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6911369361375035392,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 854, "length": 23, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:33227580", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:33227580", "name": "La Gazette des communes", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1581616718557?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=m7Pr6IlIVhcs_CoNc7VkYL4r6RLGL98-2u4XpFT35bw", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1581616718557?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=pgWg8xXII_OzVZRvArq0qOEOaeFwBzFDytNSQrtVN3M", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1581616718557?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=Hiftl-DMoJVEq3MlqVgm4JECuhQDQo5_XD0qF89bI_I", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQE40tbDM2906g/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "la-gazette-des-communes", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:33227580", "trackingId": "lScqMe9/RrOITMJh7A1V6A==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Il y a 15 jours The Shift Project publiait sous forme de livre le r\u00e9sultat de ses travaux sur la \"r\u00e9silience des territoires\" (https://lnkd.in/eJ2mn-xt ). Ce projet tente de donner quelques cl\u00e9s de lecture et conseils pratiques aux \u00e9lus locaux pour commencer \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la question suivante : comment organiser la vie locale pour \u00eatre plus aptes \u00e0 r\u00e9sister \u00e0 des perturbations croissantes tout en ayant moins de moyens ?\n\nCe projet a \u00e9t\u00e9 lanc\u00e9 avant la guerre en Ukraine, qui, apr\u00e8s le covid, illustre combien notre pays - et donc toutes ses collectivit\u00e9s - est d\u00e9pendant de chaines d'approvisionnement longues qui sont autant de points de vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 dans un monde chahut\u00e9. et du chahut il va aussi y en avoir \u00e0 cause du changement climatique, dont les premi\u00e8res manifestations sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 un peu d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ables,et qui vont n\u00e9cessairement s'amplifier.\n\nLa Gazette des communes a souhait\u00e9 organiser une \"discussion\" avec des \u00e9lus locaux sur ce projet, ainsi que sur le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf ) . En pratique j'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 invit\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00e9senter les grandes lignes du PTEF, puis il y a eu un tour de table des \u00e9lu(e)s pr\u00e9sent(e)s, puis j'ai planch\u00e9 sur le projet \"strat\u00e9gie de r\u00e9silience des territoires\", puis il y a de nouveau eu un (en fait plusieurs) tour de table pour avoir des r\u00e9actions.\n\nPour celles et ceux qui ont l'habitude des d\u00e9bats sur des chaines de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision avec des \u00e9lus \"nationaux\", il sera facile de remarquer que le ton et le contenu des \u00e9changes est ici fort diff\u00e9rent. D'abord personne ne se revendique d'une couleur politique pour \"cadrer\" son action locale (couleur qui n'est pas plus annonc\u00e9e par l'animateur, \u00e0 tel point que je suis bien incapable de dire qui \u00e9tait de quel bord). \n\nCeci allant peut-\u00eatre avec cela, les pan\u00e9listes ne se sont pas oppos\u00e9s pendant ce d\u00e9bat, o\u00f9 il a surtout \u00e9t\u00e9 question de probl\u00e8mes assez concrets auxquels ils \u00e9taient confront\u00e9s. \n\nDepuis que je m'int\u00e9resse \u00e0 la question de la d\u00e9carbonation de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9, il y a un sujet r\u00e9current de \"plus forte l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9\" au sein du monde politique pour mener l'action, \u00e0 savoir si c'est plut\u00f4t \u00e0 l'Etat ou plut\u00f4t aux \u00e9lus locaux de mener la barque.\n\nLa r\u00e9ponse est \u00e9videmment que nous avons besoin des deux. Laisser l'Etat en dehors de la planification de la d\u00e9carbonation n'aurait pas de sens, mais laisser les \u00e9lus locaux en dehors de la d\u00e9clinaison locale de la mise en oeuvre n'en aurait pas plus. Mieux : plus il y aura d'\u00e9lus locaux ayant bien compris le d\u00e9fi qui se pr\u00e9sente, et plus il y en aura qui agiront de fa\u00e7on pertinente \u00e0 leur niveau, et plus cela augmentera la probabilit\u00e9 que l'Etat soit s\u00e9rieux sur la question." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6911369361375035392,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6911369362150977536,urn:li:activity:6911369362150977536,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 5, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6911369362150977536,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6911369362150977536,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6911010131895857152,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est le monde \u00e0 l'envers : permettant de diminuer les \u00e9missions de la production \u00e9lectrique de 60% environ par rapport au charbon, le gaz devait aider \u00e0 supprimer ce dernier de notre mix \u00e9lectrique (et donc pour l'essentiel de notre mix \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, car l'essentiel du charbon sert \u00e0 produire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9). C'\u00e9tait bien l\u00e0 une des directions prises par les pays europ\u00e9ens, surtout ceux qui n'avaient pas tr\u00e8s envie d'entendre parler de nucl\u00e9aire.\n\nMais le plan n'avait pas pr\u00e9vu l'\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 qu'il puisse y avoir un d\u00e9faut d'approvisionnement en gaz, et des prix qui grimpent au plafond. Que faire en pareil cas ?\n\nImpossible d'avoir beaucoup plus d'ENR \u00e0 bref d\u00e9lai : ces modes sont soit d\u00e9j\u00e0 inject\u00e9s pour la totalit\u00e9 de leur production (\u00e9olien, solaire et biogaz) et des capacit\u00e9s additionnelles sont lentes \u00e0 arriver, soit ne peuvent augmenter leur production (hydraulique ; tout le contenu des barrages est d\u00e9j\u00e0 utilis\u00e9). \n\nImpossible d'avoir beaucoup plus de nucl\u00e9aire (hors probl\u00e8me de capacit\u00e9 disponible comme en France que l'on peut esp\u00e9rer r\u00e9soudre \u00e0 l'horizon de l'ann\u00e9e) : \u00e0 part en France, o\u00f9 les r\u00e9acteurs font du suivi de charge (parce que nous avons beaucoup de nucl\u00e9aire), le nucl\u00e9aire produit en base, c'est \u00e0 dire en permanence. En outre on ne rajoute pas un r\u00e9acteur en quelques mois ! \n\nIl reste une possibilit\u00e9 : augmenter la production au charbon. Il s'agit bien du charbon (ou de la houille) et non du lignite, ce dernier combustible \u00e9tant le charbon de \"mauvaise qualit\u00e9\" (teneur en carbone pas tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9e beaucoup d'eau) qui s'exploite avec des excavatrices g\u00e9antes dans des mines \u00e0 ciel ouvert, et qui lui aussi produit en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral \u00e0 puissance maximale en permanence (du moins en Allemagne).\n\nLes centrales \u00e0 charbon de type \"houille\" ont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement un facteur de charge inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 100%. Si on trouve du charbon (car une bonne partie est import\u00e9e en Europe) on peut donc augmenter la production au charbon en cas de d\u00e9faut de gaz, ou de prix trop \u00e9lev\u00e9.\n\nEt c'est exactement ce qui s'est pass\u00e9 en Europe en 2021, avec une hausse de pr\u00e8s de 20% de la production \u00e9lectrique au charbon." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6911010131895857152,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6911010132529176577,urn:li:activity:6911010132529176577,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 67, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6911010132529176577,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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record | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6910502063579803648,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 472, "length": 9, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:1024481", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:1024481", "name": "Carbone 4", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=rfJGK2e3iterLsOsSISWYBKQfwRsHbVRefpndEMkvPQ", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=RdCLexoU6sLuxazvQlgNfFeH4Wfhc6NXzSzW9yDnXqw", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=LuPzdb3bCuaLwxQ0d-zT9XKdKpEEgBhM46jfzYljHFk", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQGvsTIZAJifHQ/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "carbone-4", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:1024481", "trackingId": "yHalykF3R56pjO55QetwwQ==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "S'il faut se passer du p\u00e9trole et du gaz russes, en ne comptant pas trop sur la possibilit\u00e9 de se retourner vers d'autres producteurs (notamment sur le p\u00e9trole dont la production future, sur terre, risque de ne pas beaucoup augmenter avant un d\u00e9clin marqu\u00e9 : https://lnkd.in/dwPcgve), il va falloir faire... des \u00e9conomies.\n\nLa question devient alors : que pouvons nous \u00e9conomiser, comment, et \u00e0 quel horizon de temps ? Parlons chiffres : cet article publi\u00e9 sur le site de Carbone 4 d\u00e9taille l'utilisation du p\u00e9trole et du gaz en France, et fournit \u00e9galement l'ordre de grandeur des \u00e9conomies possibles (pour le p\u00e9trole et pour le gaz) associ\u00e9es \u00e0 un certain nombre de gestes de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nPour le p\u00e9trole, ralentir sur la route (dont limitation \u00e0 110 sur autoroute), avoir une conduite \"sobre\" (pas d'acc\u00e9l\u00e9rations furieuses, par exemple), et \u00e9viter de prendre la voiture pour les d\u00e9placements courts, permettrait de se passer du p\u00e9trole russe (environ 10% de notre consommation) \u00e0 l'horizon de l'ann\u00e9e. \n\nEvidemment, ce calcul est fait \u00e0 la maille fran\u00e7aise. A la maille europ\u00e9enne (un tiers du p\u00e9trole provient de ce pays) cela n'est plus suffisant, or il y aurait probablement un goulet d'\u00e9tranglement sur nos autres fournisseurs si les autres pays europ\u00e9ens d\u00e9cident aussi de se tourner vers d'autres producteurs.\n\nPour le gaz, qui sert avant tout au chauffage, aucune marge n'est rapide \u00e0 part baisser le thermostat (rappelons que la r\u00e9glementation est que la temp\u00e9rature int\u00e9rieure ne doit pas d\u00e9passer 19 \u00b0C !). Isoler ou passer \u00e0 la pompe \u00e0 chaleur demandent des ann\u00e9es pour que le r\u00e9sultat soit l\u00e0. Et, comme pour le p\u00e9trole, si les autres pays ne veulent plus de la Russie, cela cr\u00e9era un goulet d'\u00e9tranglement sur les autres producteurs (pour le moment la France importe de Norv\u00e8ge une part majeure de son gaz, mais la Norv\u00e8ge devra fournir d'autres pays - dont l'Allemagne - si toute l'Europe cherche \u00e0 se d\u00e9tourner de la Russie).\n\nCe que rappelle cet \u00e9pisode russe, c'est que l'absence de d\u00e9carbonation n'est pas une option. A partir du moment o\u00f9 p\u00e9trole et gaz sont \u00e9puisables, il arrive un moment o\u00f9 nous devons faire avec moins, climat ou pas. \n\nEvidemment personne n'a de boule de cristal pour pr\u00e9dire quand exactement et avec quelles modalit\u00e9s exactement ce \"moins\" arrive. Par contre, tabler sur le fait que nous n'aurons jamais de mauvaise surprise c\u00f4t\u00e9 fourniture dans un monde qui reste d\u00e9pendant aux hydrocarbures est un pari que nous sommes s\u00fbrs de perdre. \n\nPas de mauvaise surprise, c'est pourtant ce qu'ont suppos\u00e9 les candidat(e)s en 2017, et je ne suis pas sur que les programmes actuellement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s soient tous compatibles avec une nouvelle r\u00e9cession significative qui arriverait pendant le prochain mandat \u00e0 cause d'une nouvelle \"mauvaise surprise\"." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6910502063579803648,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6910502064171188224,urn:li:activity:6910502064171188224,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 110, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Pas de p\u00e9trole, pas d'\u00e9conomie ! Il ne faut pas chercher ailleurs la raison pour laquelle l'Europe ne peut pas boycotter le p\u00e9trole et la gaz russes....\n\nPour comprendre en quoi toute entreprise d\u00e9pend aujourd'hui directement ou indirectement des combustibles fossiles, il faut regarder ce que l'on appelle sa chaine de valeur (de la mine \u00e0 la fin de l'utilisation du produit ou service par le client final), et voir quels maillons d\u00e9pendent - et combien - des combustibles fossiles.\n\nTrop longtemps le secteur financier a refus\u00e9 de prendre les \u00e9missions dites indirectes en consid\u00e9ration alors qu'elles sont indispensables pour mener une analyse de risque (https://lnkd.in/eVSer7fm ). 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800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800/0/1647504205563?e=1679529600&v=beta&t=wf0sg9MXMHhCWUHpXA0i_IQ7P-MqleGWuAEhN__gWTg", "expiresAt": 1679529600000, "height": 652 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E22AQHTNwYL_ZnZpw/feedshare-shrink_" }, "displayAspectRatio": 0.8145161290322581 } ], "editableAccessibilityText": true, "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "accessibilityText": "graphical user interface, application" } ], "showTemplateCta": false } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6910133481092091904,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le gouvernement a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 hier son \"plan de r\u00e9silience \u00e9conomique et sociale\" qui constitue la r\u00e9ponse de l'Etat \u00e0 la situation tendue sur l'\u00e9nergie cr\u00e9\u00e9e dans notre pays par la guerre en Ukraine : https://lnkd.in/ehA2dXf5\n\nLa \"gros du plan\" vise \u00e0 soulager les tr\u00e9soreries : subvention des carburants (particuliers et professionnels), garantie par l'Etat de diverses cat\u00e9gories de pr\u00eats, ou d\u00e9calage des paiements de la TVA (ou des charges sociales).\n\nMais ces mesures ne diminuent en rien notre d\u00e9pendance aux importations de combustibles fossiles (au contraire la subvention aux consommateurs la p\u00e9rennise). Nous ne serons pas en meilleure posture \"physique\" apr\u00e8s ces mesures qu'avant.\n\nCe qui contribuerait \u00e0 r\u00e9soudre \"physiquement\" le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 l'horizon de la semaine ou du mois serait la baisse imm\u00e9diate de la consommation \u00e0 ces m\u00eames \u00e9chelles de temps. On peut songer (exemples illustratifs) :\n- \u00e0 la limitation de la vitesse sur autoroute\n- \u00e0 la mise en place \u00e0 tr\u00e8s bref d\u00e9lai d'un plan de covoiturage entreprises (domicile - travail = 1/3 de la mobilit\u00e9 en voiture)\n- \u00e0 l'optimisation du taux de remplissage des transporteurs routiers (obligation de remplissage minimum pour pouvoir rouler)\n- \u00e0 la baisse de la temp\u00e9rature de consigne dans tous les b\u00e2timents chauff\u00e9s au fioul ou au gaz (et m\u00eame pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans la mesure o\u00f9 une partie de cette derni\u00e8re est produite au gaz)\n- \u00e0 la baisse imm\u00e9diate et r\u00e9glement\u00e9e du nombre de vols autoris\u00e9s \u00e0 d\u00e9coller (avant covid 10% du carburant utilis\u00e9 en France concernait l'aviation).\n\nLe plan propose aussi une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration des investissements \"d\u00e9carbonants\" (b\u00e2timents, mobilit\u00e9, ENR). Outre que certains sont plus d\u00e9carbonants que d'autres, ces mesures sont \u00e0 moyen et long terme. Leur appliquer le terme de \"r\u00e9silience\" \u00e0 court terme est donc \u00e0 nuancer.\n\nEn mati\u00e8re d'agriculture, le plan consiste \u00e0 subventionner les \u00e9leveurs expos\u00e9s \u00e0 la hausse du prix des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales, et \u00e0 s'assurer que toute hausse sera bien pass\u00e9e au consommateur final via la distribution. A nouveau pas d'incitation \u00e0 proc\u00e9der autrement.\n\nEnfin le plan \u00e9voque la diversification des d\u00e9bouch\u00e9s pour les exportateurs (en 2021, la France a export\u00e9 6,5 Mds \u20ac de biens vers la Russie) et la s\u00e9curisation des importations. Mais \u00e0 court terme ces mesures sont partielles. Trouver de nouveaux clients est parfois rapide (forte demande et chaines logistiques faciles \u00e0 modifier), mais pas toujours.\n\nEt surtout pour les importations de m\u00e9taux critiques (tungst\u00e8ne, palladium, platine...) la diversification des approvisionnements est un probl\u00e8me de moyen et long terme.\n\nApr\u00e8s le covid, la guerre en Ukraine est une nouvelle forme de \"d\u00e9mondialisation accidentelle\" : rupture des approvisionnements ou des d\u00e9bouch\u00e9s. Ce que r\u00e9v\u00e8le ce plan, c'est que nous n'avons toujours pas pens\u00e9 le 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9remment du 20\u00e8." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6910133481092091904,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6910133481985466368,urn:li:activity:6910133481985466368,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 139, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6910133481985466368,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6910133481985466368,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8047968654327702369)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theshiftproject.org \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Former l'ing\u00e9nieur du 21e si\u00e8cle : le Shift publie son rapport final ! by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/publication-rapport-former-lingenieur-du-21esiecle/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Former l'ing\u00e9nieur du 21e si\u00e8cle : le Shift publie son rapport final !" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6909758705446105088,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Exploiter au mieux la connaissance scientifique du moment pour le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice de la collectivit\u00e9\u00a0: ainsi pourrait-on tenter de d\u00e9finir l\u2019ing\u00e9nieur, d\u2019hier, d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui ou de demain. \n\u00a0\nQuand cette corporation s\u2019est mise au service de la r\u00e9volution industrielle, la science se composait pour l'essentiel des explications sur l\u2019agencement de la mati\u00e8re, les interactions du monde physique, d'o\u00f9 les ing\u00e9nieurs ont d\u00e9duit la fa\u00e7on de s\u2019en servir pour construire machines et objets. \n\u00a0\nMais la science ne se limite d\u00e9sormais plus \u00e0 cette dimension \"techniciste\". Elle s'enrichit d\u00e9sormais chaque jour un peu plus d\u2019une deuxi\u00e8me composante\u00a0: celle de l\u2019observation de l\u2019environnement, et de la caract\u00e9risation de ce qu\u2019il est d\u00e9sormais convenu d\u2019appeler les limites plan\u00e9taires. Nous savons chaque jour un peu plus que, avec 8 milliards de cosmonautes, notre vaisseau spatial est limit\u00e9, fragile, \u00e9puisable.\n\u00a0\nPour que le m\u00e9tier de l'ing\u00e9nieur reste d\u2019apporter \"le progr\u00e8s\" \u00e0 la population alors que le cadre a fortement chang\u00e9 (et donc la mani\u00e8re de d\u00e9finir le progr\u00e8s aussi), les \u00e9tablissements qui forment des ing\u00e9nieurs doivent aussi changer. Comment ? Suffit-il de rajouter quelques cours de sciences sur l'\u00e9tat de l'environnement ? \n\nC'est \u00e0 cette question que s'est attaqu\u00e9 The Shift Project, en prenant pour cobaye le groupe des INSA. Et, de fait, le sujet ne se limite pas \u00e0 rajouter quelques cours. Il faut traiter les antagonismes entre cours (par exemple comment r\u00e9concilier la vision physique, int\u00e9grant des limites, et la vision \u00e9conomique, bas\u00e9e sur une convention tenant ces limites pour nulles ?), la formation du corps enseignant, les d\u00e9sirs des employeurs (qui veulent favoriser leurs propres activit\u00e9s et non la collectivit\u00e9), les classements (qui aujourd'hui donnent une part importante aux r\u00e9mun\u00e9rations alors que les m\u00e9tiers \"qui sont utiles pour notre avenir\" sont parfois moins pay\u00e9s que ceux qui le sont moins), etc. Bref \"se mettre en ordre de marche\" demande de nombreux changements, et donc une volont\u00e9 (tr\u00e8s) forte de la direction.\n\nLe but du travail effectu\u00e9 n'\u00e9tait pas de faire des pr\u00e9conisations uniquement destin\u00e9es aux INSA (m\u00eame si il est num\u00e9riquement important dans le paysage !), mais bien d'en tirer un \"discours de la m\u00e9thode\" qui soit public et utilisable par tout \u00e9tablissement d'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur formant des ing\u00e9nieurs (rappelons que The Shift Project est une association d'int\u00e9r\u00eat g\u00e9n\u00e9ral).\n\nLe r\u00e9sultat de ce travail vient d'\u00eatre mis en ligne. Nous esp\u00e9rons qu'il aidera tous les \u00e9tablissements fran\u00e7ais concern\u00e9s (en attendant les autres !) \u00e0 fournir une formation en phase avec les enjeux, ce qui pour le moment est encore tr\u00e8s loin d'\u00eatre le cas.\n\nNB : Bien \u00e9videmment, nous ne pensons pas une minute, au Shift Project, que seules les formations d'ing\u00e9nieur sont concern\u00e9es. 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rapport du GIEC, qui portait sur les impacts du changement climatique, impacts pass\u00e9s et impacts \u00e0 venir.\n\nLa liste est d\u00e9sormais longue - et r\u00e9sum\u00e9e dans la figure 2 - des \u00e9volutions n\u00e9gatives qui sont dues - ou dues pour partie - au changement climatique qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 engendr\u00e9 par le surplus d'effet de serre du aux activit\u00e9s humaines. \n\nEn fait, pour bien faire il faudrait faire un post par colonne de ce graphique, tant il contient d'informations. C'est une des difficult\u00e9s de lecture des graphiques tr\u00e8s riches produits par le GIEC : ils pourraient parfois justifier 15 ou 20 minutes d'explications \u00e0 l'oral !\n\nIl y a un petit - et m\u00eame un gros - manque dans ledit r\u00e9sum\u00e9 : il ne contient pas de graphiques sur les impacts futurs - graphiques par contre disponibles dans le r\u00e9sum\u00e9 technique - qui permettent de comprendre que \"chaque demi-degr\u00e9 compte, et m\u00eame chaque dixi\u00e8me de degr\u00e9 compte\". \n\nDe fait, les cons\u00e9quences seront fortement croissantes avec l'\u00e9l\u00e9vation de la temp\u00e9rature. Les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts de 2\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement ne seront pas \"juste\" le double de ceux caus\u00e9s par 1\u00b0C. 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6909050137252143105,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "En p\u00e9riode de temps calme, il n'\u00e9tait pas question de monter le prix des carburants, \"pas tol\u00e9rable pour la population\". Arrive une mont\u00e9e des prix qui vient d'un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne ind\u00e9pendant de notre volont\u00e9, et alors... on les subventionne. Rappelons que cela signifie explicitement subventionner les producteurs (\u00e9trangers) de p\u00e9trole et de gaz (alors qu'on ne veut pas payer la guerre de Poutine !).\n\nEvidemment que cette hausse fait du mal \u00e0 certains portefeuilles. Mais le signal envoy\u00e9 par cette subvention est le plus mauvais qui soit. Il dit que ce qui se passe n'est qu'un accident et que derri\u00e8re il n'y aura plus de probl\u00e8me. Mais il se trouve que le probl\u00e8me ne fait que commencer, climat ou pas. Rystad Energy vient de r\u00e9viser \u00e0 la baisse ses perspectives de production de p\u00e9trole russe (embargo ou pas) qui aurait alors pass\u00e9 son pic en 2019. \n\nLa Mer du Nord d\u00e9cline, comme l'ensemble du continent africain. Les producteurs am\u00e9ricains de shale oil ne semblent pas vouloir (pouvoir ?) en faire beaucoup plus. Bref nous entrons de mani\u00e8re acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e dans la tendance baissi\u00e8re sur le p\u00e9trole, et s'organiser correctement ne passe pas avant tout par des subventions d\u00e9cid\u00e9es \"dans la panique\".\n\nCette incompr\u00e9hension de la contrainte n'est pas le propre du camp en place. A l'instant Anne Hidalgo se faisait cuisiner (pour une fois de mani\u00e8re assez pertinente !) sur France Info sur ce sujet du prix de l'\u00e9nergie. Propositions de la candidate :\n- proposition d'un embargo sur gaz et p\u00e9trole russes imm\u00e9diats (rappel : 30% du p\u00e9trole et 40% du gaz consomm\u00e9s en Europe) tout en expliquant que le gouvernement subventionnerait les prix autant que n\u00e9cessaire.\n- baisser la TVA sur l'essence\n- se fournir en gaz de roche m\u00e8re aupr\u00e8s des USA\n\nBref la repr\u00e9sentante du PS (alli\u00e9 historiquement aux Verts) pr\u00f4ne l'exact inverse de ce qu'il faut faire en pareil cas (surtout ne pas baisser le prix de l'\u00e9nergie mais \u00e9ventuellement aider autrement), mais qui \"ne contredit en rien ce qu'il faut faire pour sortir des \u00e9nergies fossiles\" (sic). \n\nAu passage elle tacle Macron qui \"n'a pas fait ce qu'il fallait pour d\u00e9velopper les \u00e9nergies renouvelables\" (comme si les \u00e9oliennes et panneaux solaires auraient remplac\u00e9 des chaudi\u00e8res \u00e0 gaz et des voitures \u00e0 p\u00e9trole). Elle oublie un peu vite que Hollande - donc son propre camp - a fait ce qu'il pouvait pour favoriser le gaz :) (\u00e9tiquette \u00e9nergie \"pro-gaz\" dans le logement ; objectif de baisse du nucl\u00e9aire).\n\nLoin de moi l'id\u00e9e qu'il s'agisse d'une pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence exprim\u00e9e pour un camp plut\u00f4t qu'un autre. Il s'agit plut\u00f4t de souligner que l'impr\u00e9paration \u00e0 une situation qui n'\u00e9tait pourtant qu'une question de temps (un probl\u00e8me d'approvisionnement en combustibles fossiles qui allait potentiellement faire grimper les prix au plafond) est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e parmi les candidat(e)s. Peut-\u00eatre qu'il est enfin temps que le personnel politique comprenne ce qu'est une limite physique, et tienne \u00e0 la population un discours adulte en cons\u00e9quence ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6909050137252143105,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6909050138086793216,urn:li:activity:6909050138086793216,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 229, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6909050138086793216,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6909050138086793216,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1594818120745?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=iu0KPu8LLJ9RAfjnT2Ns5LZl33RPKeM9HX6-ZLDA21k", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1594818120745?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=_mCrEcZ-7ykNMvdPjukL2wRv9vwlFKKCFeayuZ86FtM", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1594818120745?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=oeC9Hq1Uc2ASP0IP9mQN7GVDE17ikFZ9KCBOFO9D33Y", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D0BAQG2GlbS3GKBow/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "myco2-par-carbone-4", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:66641273", "trackingId": "Xke1GqB6T6ywrdw6egdwDA==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Finalement les europ\u00e9ens ne boycotteront pas le p\u00e9trole et le gaz russe \u00e0 bref d\u00e9lai. Quand on sait l'importance de ce fournisseur dans ces deux approvisionnements, et quand on sait l'importance de l'\u00e9nergie - donc du parc de machines - pour faire fonctionner le monde actuel, c'est l'inverse qui aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9tonnant.\n\nMyCO2 par Carbone 4 vous propose un petit panorama sur le gaz en France : d'o\u00f9 vient-il (sachant que par effet ricochet, si la Russie cessait de nous fournir la comp\u00e9tition sur le gaz norv\u00e9gien n'en laisserait plus autant pour nous), \u00e0 quoi sert-il, et comment s'en passer (ce qui est aussi l'objectif du PTEF) \u00e0 quelles \u00e9ch\u00e9ances.\n\nLe \"coup de semonce\" actuel devrait utilement servir \u00e0 mettre en route les grandes manoeuvres acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9es dans la d\u00e9carbonation du chauffage. C'est un des usages o\u00f9 c'est essentiellement une affaire de volont\u00e9 \u00e0 confort presque constant. Il y a d'autres usages o\u00f9 ce sera moins simple." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6908731632048848896,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6908731632669605888,urn:li:activity:6908731632669605888,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 60, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6908731632669605888,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6908731632669605888,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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eu droit \u00e0 3 minutes sur la question dans la matinale d'aujourd'hui.\n\nEn 3 minutes il a fallu essayer de r\u00e9sumer au moins mal le message scientifique, ce qu'il faut en d\u00e9duire sur l'urgence de l'action pour ce que l'on peut encore g\u00e9rer, et le r\u00f4le des media dans la faiblesse de l'information sur la question.\n\nJusqu'au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2099 il y aura toujours plus urgent que 2100. Mais attendre que nous soyons sortis du \"probl\u00e8me du moment\" pour s'attaquer \u00e0 la question du climat est garantir que ce sont les crises qui r\u00e8gleront le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 notre place : \u00e0 cause des diverses limites plan\u00e9taires qui sont d\u00e9sormais partout autour d'une humanit\u00e9 \u00e0 8 milliards, consommant comme elle le fait maintenant, nous allons avoir de plus en plus de \"surprises\" pas sympathiques \u00e0 l'avenir. \n\nIl faut le dire encore et encore : les \"plans de transition\" doivent aussi pouvoir r\u00e9sister \u00e0 des contextes tr\u00e8s adverses (crises \u00e9conomiques, crises sociales, crises g\u00e9opolitiques, crises environnementales...). Il ne faut pas compter sur la croissance verte pour s'attaquer aux probl\u00e8mes... engendr\u00e9s par la croissance pas verte." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6908433318053093376,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6908433318703210496,urn:li:activity:6908433318703210496,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 29, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6908433318703210496,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6908433318703210496,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7759186567094175973)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theshiftproject.org \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Le Shift Project publie son nouveau livre sur la r\u00e9silience des territoires ! by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/publication-livre-vers-la-resilience-des-territoires/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Shift Project publie son nouveau livre sur la r\u00e9silience des territoires !" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6907946056362151936,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Apr\u00e8s le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise (qui s'est offert le luxe d'\u00eatre le livre le plus vendu par la FNAC la semaine du 18 au 25 f\u00e9vrier, au coude \u00e0 coude avec... Le monde sans fin), The Shift Project propose aux personnes int\u00e9ress\u00e9es par la \"r\u00e9silience des territoires\" (\u00e9lus locaux - avec 36000 communes en France ca en fait quand m\u00eame quelques centaines de milliers -, ex\u00e9cutifs locaux, ou toute personne voulant se plonger dans le sujet) sa nouvelle production : \"Vers la R\u00e9silience des Territoires\" (https://lnkd.in/e5G6DHAS. ).\n\nR\u00e9silience, quesse\u00e7a ? Il s'agit de conserver, ou de retrouver apr\u00e8s un choc, ou une perturbation adverse forte, une organisation locale qui fonctionne. \n\nNous devons d\u00e9sormais faire face \u00e0 un changement climatique dont certaines cons\u00e9quences vont aller croissant \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle du si\u00e8cle ou plus quoi que nous fassions, \u00e0 cause de l'inertie du syst\u00e8me socio\u00e9conomique mondial, et \u00e0 cause des effets de seuil dans le monde qui nous entoure. \n\nNous devons aussi faire face \u00e0 la d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion des combustibles fossiles qui ont fait la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 industrielle et mondialis\u00e9e, l'\u00e9mergence des classes moyennes et l'am\u00e9nagement du territoire (tout le monde en ville ou presque), la structure des emplois etc (voir https://lnkd.in/dtHn5pbD pour la description du processus en images). L'actualit\u00e9 nous offre l'occasion de rappeler que rien n'est pr\u00eat pour faire face \u00e0 cette d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion, qui est non seulement possible mais certaine en tendance.\n\nDans ce contexte, comment r\u00e9organiser la vie locale ? Comment organiser l'approvisionnement alimentaire si moins de choses poussent ici et que moins de p\u00e9trole est disponible pour les faire venir de l\u00e0 ? Comment organiser les transports si moins de voitures sont disponibles pour des gens habitant en zone \"distendue\" o\u00f9 les transports en commun fortement maill\u00e9s sont inenvisageables ? \n\nComment assurer l'emploi si la mondialisation diminue et que les entreprises ne peuvent plus compter sur les m\u00eames chaines de valeur, qui ont aujourd'hui toutes des racines \u00e0 l'autre bout de la plan\u00e8te, ne serait-ce que pour les m\u00e9taux ou le p\u00e9trole ? 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theconversation.com", "actionTarget": "https://theconversation.com/penuries-agricoles-inflation-insecurite-alimentaire-les-repercussions-de-la-guerre-en-ukraine-178628" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "P\u00e9nuries agricoles, inflation, ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 alimentaire\u00a0: les\u00a0r\u00e9percussions de la\u00a0guerre en\u00a0Ukraine" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6907579880612188160,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il n'y a pas que dans le domaine des \u00e9nergies fossiles que la guerre en Ukraine va avoir des r\u00e9percussions plan\u00e9taires : cela pourrait \u00e9galement se voir en ce qui concerne le commerce mondial de certaines denr\u00e9es agricoles, notamment le bl\u00e9 (Ukraine et Russie combinent un tiers des exportations et quasiment tout transite par les ports de la Mer Noire ou de la Mer d'Azov), le ma\u00efs (Ukraine et Russie fournissent 20% du march\u00e9 mondial, et c'est surtout l'Ukraine), et enfin le tournesol (l'Ukraine est le premier exportateur mondial avec la moiti\u00e9 \u00e0 elle seule, et avec la Russie c'est 70% des exportations).\n\nCe risque sur les exportations de ces denr\u00e9es agricoles survient dans un contexte de s\u00e9cheresse frappant le pourtour de la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e (tr\u00e8s coh\u00e9rente avec les effets attendus du r\u00e9chauffement climatique). Les pays du Sud de l'Europe sont en situation anormalement s\u00e8che pour une fin d'hiver (https://lnkd.in/dXseY92w ) et le Maroc est m\u00eame en train de faire face \u00e0 une s\u00e9cheresse exceptionnelle (https://lnkd.in/daamQ82P). Dans les deux cas de figure les r\u00e9servoirs pour l'irrigation sont en plus sous leur niveau normal de remplissage \u00e0 cette \u00e9poque.\n\nCet article de The Conversation explique que cela va engendrer une inflation significative des prix agricoles, qui sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 remont\u00e9s \u00e0 leur record atteint en 1974, au moment du premier choc p\u00e9trolier.\n\nCela va \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence provoquer du remue m\u00e9nage au sein des pays fortement importateurs de denr\u00e9es agricoles et qui n'ont pas de recettes \u00e0 l'exportation pouvant contrebalancer. Certains sont ceux qui ont fait l'objet d'\u00e9meutes au moment du Printemps Arabe (https://lnkd.in/gaY7nrE ). \n\nProbl\u00e8me sur la disponibilit\u00e9 en \u00e9nergie en m\u00eame temps que cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique : voici un cocktail que nous aurons h\u00e9las de plus en plus souvent au 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle. Il faut un plan !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6907579880612188160,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6907579881631424512,urn:li:activity:6907579881631424512,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 53, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6907579881631424512,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6907579881631424512,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6907579881631424512", "threadId": 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Un vol en avion neutre en carbone ? Une centrale \u00e9lectrique au charbon neutre en carbone ? Tout cela est d\u00e9sormais possible en France, avec la b\u00e9n\u00e9diction du l\u00e9gislateur.\n\nQuelques jours \u00e0 peine apr\u00e8s la sortie du dernier rapport du GIEC, et alors que l'actualit\u00e9 nous rappelle avec force que la d\u00e9pendance aux \u00e9nergies fossiles est porteuse de risques ind\u00e9pendamment du climat, le gouvernement fran\u00e7ais vient de pr\u00e9ciser, dans un d\u00e9cret, les modalit\u00e9s d'application, en mati\u00e8re d'all\u00e9gations de neutralit\u00e9, de l'article de la loi climat et r\u00e9silience de juillet dernier.\n\nDans la version initiale du projet de loi, il \u00e9tait juste interdit de parler de \"neutralit\u00e9\" d'un produit ou d'une entreprise, ce qui \u00e9tait la cons\u00e9quence logique d'une observation des faits : all\u00e9guer qu'un produit ou service a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9labor\u00e9 sans \u00e9missions, ou en utilisant un \"balai sp\u00e9cial\" qui aurait fait dispara\u00eetre ces \u00e9missions comme si elles n'avaient pas eu lieu, est en fait une affirmation invalide (https://lnkd.in/dGTt6Zs ). \n\nMais, par le jeu des amendements d\u00e9pos\u00e9s par les parlementaires (qui sont eux-m\u00eames sollicit\u00e9s par des porteurs d'int\u00e9r\u00eat, ce qui est le jeu normal de la d\u00e9mocratie), il est devenu possibledans l'article final de revendiquer la neutralit\u00e9 d'un produit \"sous certaines conditions\", pr\u00e9cis\u00e9es par d\u00e9cret.\n\nCe qu'explique cet article de Carbone 4, c'est que le d\u00e9cret tout juste pris rend les conditions en question tr\u00e8s faciles \u00e0 satisfaire, et vont donc permettre \u00e0 qui le veut - y compris un exploitant de centrales \u00e0 charbon ou un vendeur de carburants - de revendiquer la neutralit\u00e9 de son produit ou service. \n\nComme le dit cet article en conclusion, nous venons en pratique de permettre \"l\u2019\u00e9mergence d\u2019un monde \u00e0 +4\u00b0C peupl\u00e9 de produits et services neutres\u201d. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7699030319694476584)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theguardian.com \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Climate crisis: Amazon rainforest tipping point is looming, data shows by theguardian.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/07/climate-crisis-amazon-rainforest-tipping-point" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Climate crisis: Amazon rainforest tipping point is looming, data shows" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6906991208623951872,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un article paru dans The Guardian synth\u00e9tise un article scientifique lui-m\u00eame paru (hier) dans Nature Climate Change (https://lnkd.in/eK9avcK7 ) et qui porte sur l'\u00e9volution r\u00e9cente de la for\u00eat amazonienne.\n\nLes r\u00e9sultats ne sont gu\u00e8re rassurants (what else...) : la remise en \u00e9tat de la for\u00eat apr\u00e8s des s\u00e9cheresses ou des incendies - eux-m\u00eames de plus en plus fr\u00e9quents - est de plus en plus difficile.\n\nLes chercheurs se demandent si la for\u00eat n'est pas en train d'approcher d'un point de bascule, qui la verrait alors irr\u00e9m\u00e9diablement se transformer pour une large part en for\u00eat s\u00e8che ou en savane. Il en r\u00e9sulterait alors une perte massive de biodiversit\u00e9, mais aussi de carbone, avec en retour une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du r\u00e9chauffement - et de ses cons\u00e9quences - partout ailleurs sur la plan\u00e8te.\n\nComme augmenter le thermostat plan\u00e9taire un grand coup en tr\u00e8s peu de temps (un si\u00e8cle c'est tr\u00e8s tr\u00e8s court \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle des temps g\u00e9ologiques) est une exp\u00e9rience in\u00e9dite, sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent auquel se r\u00e9f\u00e9rer, la seule chose de certaine en pareil cas est qu'il y aura une partie de \"grand saut dans l'inconnu\".\n\nEn pratique, cela signifie que pour certains processus la compr\u00e9hension de ce qui va se passer de mani\u00e8re fine arrivera beaucoup trop tard pour que l'on puisse alors y changer quoi que ce soit. 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temps \u00e0 venir, qui \u00e9tait absolument certain. \n\nLa guerre en Ukraine n'\u00e9tait pas pr\u00e9visible dira-t-on. La guerre, certes non. Mais \"un \u00e9v\u00e9nement\" qui allait rendre l'approvisionnement en gaz et/ou en p\u00e9trole compliqu\u00e9, \u00e7a oui. D\u00e8s lors que les gisements de p\u00e9trole et de gaz sont \u00e9puisables, vient n\u00e9cessairement un moment o\u00f9... il y en a moins. La baisse subie des combustibles fossiles \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 un fait en Europe avant cette guerre, alors que nous n'avons toujours pas pris le taureau par les cornes.\n\nEn 1973, ce n'est pas la guerre du Kippour qui a fait chuter la production de p\u00e9trole (voir cette analyse de Michel Lepetit parue dans Le Monde : https://lnkd.in/eZa7SfKu ), ou plus exactement qui a fait passer le monde d'une production de p\u00e9trole augmentant de 8% par an \u00e0 une production augmentant d'un petit % par an. C'est la physique : la production ne pouvait juste pas continuer \u00e0 augmenter au m\u00eame rythme.\n\nDe m\u00eame, la guerre en Ukraine ne fait qu'amplifier une fragilit\u00e9 sous-jacente de l'Europe : celle de l'absence de plan coh\u00e9rent pour r\u00e9ellement sortir des combustibles fossiles. \n\nLa directrice g\u00e9n\u00e9rale d'Engie affirme que \"Mon espoir est que, dans ce nouveau monde, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 regardera les \u00e9nergies renouvelables diff\u00e9remment. Elles repr\u00e9sentent une source, certes intermittente, mais quasi infinie, implant\u00e9e chez nous, comp\u00e9titive, et qui nous permet de ne d\u00e9pendre de personne\".\n\nBien sur que nous allons devoir d\u00e9velopper certaines ENR. Pour autant :\n- \u00e9olien et solaire sont \"infinis\" mais les m\u00e9taux pour la collecter, non (et il en faut beaucoup plus qu'avec les fossiles)\n- \"d\u00e9pendre de personne\" est inexact : l'Europe n'a pas de mine significative sur son sol,\n- \"une source certes intermittente\" signifie que, sans stockage massif (pas du tout \u00e9vident qu'on y arrive), l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 n'est plus disponible \u00e0 la demande (ce matin, sans fossiles, il y en aurait peu : https://lnkd.in/eKmfFCM6 )\n- \"comp\u00e9titive\" si on se limite au cout de production, mais... RTE a rappel\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment que ce n'est pas l\u00e9gitime et qu'il faut regarder le cout de l'ensemble du syst\u00e8me.\n\nEngie pousse aussi le \"gaz vert\". C'est une bonne id\u00e9e... mais pour en faire du carburant pour la m\u00e9canisation agricole (et progressivement supprimer le gaz dans le chauffage).\n\nEngie \u00e9carte enfin la prolongation des centrales nucl\u00e9aires belges. A court terme, avec la baisse de la demande partout o\u00f9 c'est possible (transports, chauffage) c'est pourtant la chose la plus utile \u00e0 faire." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6906513150653337600,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6906513151257317376,urn:li:activity:6906513151257317376,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 171, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6906513151257317376,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6906513151257317376,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7598716238901944598)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtl.fr" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Guerre en Ukraine : peut-on se passer du gaz russe ? by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/c-est-notre-planete/7900130944-guerre-en-ukraine-peut-on-se-passer-du-gaz-russe" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Guerre en Ukraine : peut-on se passer du gaz russe ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6906183131338997760,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Depuis le d\u00e9but du conflit en Ukraine, des appels au \"boycott du gaz russe\" ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 appara\u00eetre ici ou l\u00e0. \n\nDans ma chronique d'hier sur RTL, il a \u00e9t\u00e9 question (une fois de plus, mais 3 minutes seulement, et probablement pour une audience qui n'est pas uniquement celle de ce r\u00e9seau social :) ) de l'importance de la Russie dans la consommation europ\u00e9enne de p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon.\n\nCela m'a donn\u00e9 l'occasion de faire un petit calcul d'ordre de grandeur : le gaz import\u00e9 de Russie repr\u00e9sente (en Europe) 3 fois la consommation fran\u00e7aise. Si l'Union devait s'en passer, comme le GNL ne peut que doubler \u00e0 bref d\u00e9lai, et que l'Alg\u00e9rie et la Mer du Nord sont en d\u00e9clin, la moiti\u00e9 des importations russes serait remplac\u00e9e par... rien, soit environ 15% de la consommation europ\u00e9enne. \n\nJe ne connais pas les proportions pour l'Europe dans son ensemble, mais en France plus de la moiti\u00e9 du gaz (import\u00e9 en totalit\u00e9) sert au chauffage des b\u00e2timents. 15% du gaz en moins, s'il \u00e9tait imput\u00e9 uniquement sur le chauffage, conduirait \u00e0 30% de surfaces chauff\u00e9es en moins, ou... \u00e0 4 \u00e0 5\u00b0C de baisse du thermostat partout (on a coutume de dire que 1\u00b0C de baisse c'est 7% de consommation en moins).\n\nPour ne plus \u00eatre dans cette situation de d\u00e9pendance, une seule solution \u00e0 terme : se passer de gaz presque partout. Dans le chauffage, cela veut dire isolation et pompes \u00e0 chaleur ou, avec beaucoup de limites, bois.\n\nSe passer de gaz dans le chauffage, c'est du reste exactement l'angle choisi dans le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise du Shift Project. En cons\u00e9quence, nous proposons de supprimer progressivement le r\u00e9seau de gaz presque partout (puisqu'il n'y a plus de gaz dans le chauffage !).\n\nCet objectif n'est pas si r\u00e9volutionnaire qu'on le pense : en Su\u00e8de, par exemple, il n'y a jamais eu de gaz dans le chauffage, et donc il n'y a jamais eu de r\u00e9seau de gaz significatif (voir carte sur https://lnkd.in/e6H-QsAM par exemple).\n\nMais, bien \u00e9videmment, la mise en oeuvre d'un tel plan demande quelques d\u00e9cennies et non quelques jours. A tr\u00e8s court terme, donc, se passer du gaz russe c'est se passer d'une partie du thermostat. Et pour l'Allemagne, qui d\u00e9pend bien plus du gaz russe que la France (environ la moiti\u00e9 de sa consommation en 2020), ca serait m\u00eame probablement se passer d'une partie de son \u00e9lectricit\u00e9." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6906183131338997760,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6906183132031053824,urn:li:activity:6906183132031053824,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 87, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6906183132031053824,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6906183132031053824,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true 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"text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Apr\u00e8s le pr\u00e9sident-pr\u00e9sident, c'est au tour du candidat-pr\u00e9sident de s'exprimer, au travers d'un texte reproduit par toute la presse. Sur la partie \u00e9nergie-climat, la phrase de la d\u00e9claration de candidature est \n\n\"il nous faudra aussi continuer d\u2019investir dans notre innovation et notre recherche afin de placer la France en t\u00eate dans les secteurs qui, comme les \u00e9nergies renouvelables, le nucl\u00e9aire, les batteries, l\u2019agriculture, le num\u00e9rique, ou le spatial feront le futur et nous permettront de devenir une grande Nation \u00e9cologique, celle qui la premi\u00e8re sera sortie de la d\u00e9pendance au gaz, au p\u00e9trole et au charbon.\"\n\nQuelques rapides commentaires :\n\n- dans le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise, le 1er chapitre se termine ainsi : \"La sortie des \u00e9nergies fossiles est inexorable (...). La premi\u00e8re nation qui ouvrira le passage marquera l'Histoire. (...) Nous pouvons r\u00e9ussir, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 ce qui a fait la grandeur de ce pays : la raison et l'audace.\". Si l'on s'en tient aux mots, on pourrait y voir un petit air de ressemblance :)\n\n- mais... \"sortir de la d\u00e9pendance au gaz, au p\u00e9trole et au charbon\" n'est pas qu'une affaire de technique. En fait ce n'est m\u00eame que marginalement une affaire de technique. C'est une affaire de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 (donc de valeurs et de r\u00e8gles) et de coh\u00e9rence. R\u00e9duire le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 sa dimension technique est le r\u00e9duire \u00e0 sa dimension la plus facile \u00e0 g\u00e9rer. Comment organiser la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9, ce que la baisse rapide des importations d'hydrocarbures russes nous forcerait \u00e0 faire si elle survient ? Ce serait par la force des choses le sujet central de son mandat s'il rempile. Mieux vaudrait s'y int\u00e9resser et en parler...\n\n- le mot \"climat\" est aussi absent que du discours de Mercredi soir (du reste aucune limite plan\u00e9taire n'est pr\u00e9sente dans ce discours). Alors que le nouveau rapport du GIEC tout juste sorti laisse entrevoir des cons\u00e9quences en face desquelles celles de la guerre en Ukraine s(er)ont du 2\u00e8 ordre (sauf \u00e0 ce que nous ayons une guerre nucl\u00e9aire totale, OK) cette absence se verra \"gros comme le nez au milieu de la figure\" pour les personnes qui ont un peu compris le sujet. Esp\u00e9rons que la presse vienne un peu le chercher sur ce sujet (on peut toujours r\u00eaver !)\n\nAu d\u00e9but de cette lettre on trouve la phrase \"rarement, la France avait \u00e9t\u00e9 confront\u00e9e \u00e0 une telle accumulation de crises\". Malheureusement, s'il rempile, les crises, il a int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 aimer cela, parce qu'il n'est pas sur que nous soyons au bout de nos surprises." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6905538079440859136,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6905538079935803392,urn:li:activity:6905538079935803392,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 75, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6905538079935803392,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6905538079935803392,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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Nous r\u00e9alisons alors que d'\u00eatre aussi d\u00e9pendants de ce pays pour notre consommation de p\u00e9trole (un tiers des importations europ\u00e9ennes viennent de Russie, et 75% du p\u00e9trole europ\u00e9en est import\u00e9 - 96% pour l'Union) et de gaz (un tiers du gaz utilis\u00e9 en Europe est russe) ne nous facilite pas la vie pour tenir t\u00eate \u00e0 Poutine.\n\nQu'\u00e0 cela ne tienne : nous allons nous passer du gaz russe. Est-ce possible ? Oui... \u00e0 condition de nous passer d'une partie du gaz tout court. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Rystad Energy (fournissant des bases de donn\u00e9es sur le p\u00e9trole et le gaz) a livr\u00e9 l'analyse reprise dans le graphique en commentaire, qui montre que \"ca passe\" pour la moiti\u00e9 du gaz que nous livre la Russie, mais qu'il va falloir se passer de l'\u00e9quivalent de la consommation fran\u00e7aise. Et, en pareil cas, personne ne sait \u00e0 quel prix le gaz disponible le sera. Il est peu probable que les autres fournisseurs nous fassent des cadeaux.\n\nPar ailleurs ce \"plan\" suppose d'augmenter l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 au charbon. Autant pour le CO2... et pourtant cela ne va pas totalement r\u00e9soudre nos probl\u00e8mes en ce qui concerne la d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 la Russie.\n\nEn effet, la moiti\u00e9 du charbon utilis\u00e9 en Europe est import\u00e9, et la moiti\u00e9 de nos importations viennent... de Russie ! Le graphique ci-dessous, effectu\u00e9 avec des donn\u00e9es BP Statistical Review, montre en effet qu'en 2020 c'\u00e9tait, et de loin, la Russie qui \u00e9tait le premier fournisseur d'Europe pour ce combustible solide. L'Allemagne n'y fait pas exception : elle dispose d'importantes r\u00e9serves de lignite, ce \"mauvais charbon\" qui s'exploite dans des mines \u00e0 ciel ouvert avec des excavatrices g\u00e9antes, mais ne dispose plus de houille, qui est import\u00e9e... pour une large part de Russie.\n\nQu'\u00e0 cela ne tienne, dit le nouveau ministre (Vert) de l'\u00e9conomie, on va changer d'avis sur le nucl\u00e9aire. M\u00eame si ce \"revirement\" est bienvenu, changer d'avis sur le nucl\u00e9aire est, \u00e0 court terme, aussi efficace que de d\u00e9cider de se tricoter un parachute si on a saut\u00e9 de l'avion sans en avoir un, en emportant juste une pelote de laine.\n\nSi la vie doit \u00eatre difficile pour quelques ann\u00e9es (voire plus) pour les pays qui ont d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de s'appuyer sur la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration \u00e9lectrique au gaz, voire au charbon, il va falloir boire le calice jusqu'\u00e0 la lie. C'est tout le charme des syst\u00e8mes \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques : ils ne se reconfigurent pas toujours en une ann\u00e9e, au fil des al\u00e9as qui surviennent. 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Le pr\u00e9sident a aussi indiqu\u00e9 qu'il fallait \"augmenter l'ind\u00e9pendance du pays\" afin de mieux ma\u00eetriser notre destin \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.\n\nVous savez quoi ? Ce cahier des charges est exactement celui du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise : https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf\n\nNotre pays utilise 4 fois plus de gaz que d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour le chauffage des b\u00e2timents. 15% du p\u00e9trole est aussi utilis\u00e9 pour le chauffage. Gaz et p\u00e9trole sont import\u00e9s en totalit\u00e9 dans notre pays (et la Russie fournit un tiers du p\u00e9trole et du gaz communautaires en ordre de grandeur). Quelle meilleure occasion que les \u00e9v\u00e9nements actuels pour d\u00e9cider de remplacer en 30 ans p\u00e9trole et gaz import\u00e9s par de l'isolation et des pompes \u00e0 chaleur ?\n\nNous souhaitons une agriculture moins consommatrice d'engrais azot\u00e9s et plus riche en emplois. Les engrais azot\u00e9s sont faits avec du gaz et la moiti\u00e9 des engrais azot\u00e9s est import\u00e9e.\n\nNous souhaitons une \u00e9conomie plus sobre en mat\u00e9riaux de base (acier, plastique et ciment). L'acier est aujourd'hui fait avec du charbon import\u00e9 (en l'esp\u00e8ce plus souvent d'Australie que de Russie mais il est import\u00e9 quand m\u00eame !), le plastique avec du p\u00e9trole et du gaz import\u00e9s, et le ciment avec des combustibles souvent import\u00e9s.\n\nNous souhaitons des transports plus sobres. Les transports fonctionnent essentiellement au p\u00e9trole... import\u00e9. \n\nEt il se trouve que ce plan r\u00e9pondrait aussi \u00e0 une \"petite\" actualit\u00e9 du moment : la publication par le GIEC du rapport du groupe 2, qui explique que le rouleau compresseur du changement climatique est en marche. \n\nA l'\u00e9vidence, la population acceptera beaucoup mieux les d\u00e9cisions courageuses \u00e0 prendre pour le climat si elles sont aussi les d\u00e9cisions \u00e0 prendre pour diminuer rapidement notre d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 des ressources largement import\u00e9es de Russie. De fait, c'est pour partie notre argent qui finance l'arm\u00e9e russe actuellement...\n\nA quelque chose malheur est bon, l'occasion est probablement inesp\u00e9r\u00e9e pour enclencher un tel plan de d\u00e9carbonation acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e. Alors, M. 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\u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 dans la litt\u00e9rature \u00e0 comit\u00e9 de lecture et rien d'autre. Il est subdivis\u00e9 en 3 groupes qui portent sur :\n- les m\u00e9canismes physiques, chimiques et biologiques du changement climatique induit par les activit\u00e9s humaines (groupe 1)\n- les cons\u00e9quences de ce changement climatique (groupe 2)\n- les marges de manoeuvre (groupe 3). \n\nLe groupe 2 du GIEC vient de mettre \u00e0 la disposition du public trois documents :\n- un rapport complet, de 3675 pages. C'est ce document qui, formellement, s'appelle \"le rapport du groupe 2 du GIEC\"\n- un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 technique (96 pages)\n- un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 pour d\u00e9cideurs (36 pages). C'est ce dernier document que la presse va g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement appeler \u00e0 tort \"le rapport du GIEC\".\n\nCe serait \u00e9videmment une gageure de pr\u00e9tendre r\u00e9sumer ici un document de 36 pages en 2000 caract\u00e8res, surtout que chaque graphique d'un rapport du GIEC condense en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral tellement d'information qu'il demande facilement 10 minutes d'explication \u00e0 l'oral.\n\nPuisqu'il faut bien en choisir un, j'ai reproduit ci-dessous un \"r\u00e9sum\u00e9 graphique\" d'une partie des impacts d\u00e9j\u00e0 observ\u00e9s. Plus le cercle est sombre plus le degr\u00e9 de confiance dans l'attribution de ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 observ\u00e9 au changement climatique est \u00e9lev\u00e9. Le signe donne le sens de l'impact (n\u00e9gatif = pas bon ; \u00b1 = mitig\u00e9).\n\nUn simple coup d'oeil montre que le changement climatique est d\u00e9j\u00e0 une cause av\u00e9r\u00e9e d'impacts n\u00e9gatifs, dont l'augmentation des maladies infectieuses, migrations, dommages aux infrastructures ou de d\u00e9gradation de la sant\u00e9 mentale.\n\nMais en face, nous avons encore du p\u00e9trole et d'autres \u00e9nergies \u00e0 profusion. Cela explique par exemple que le GIEC dise que le changement climatique a \"juste\" ralenti la hausse de la productivit\u00e9 agricole. L'\u00e9neegie a tellement augment\u00e9 cette derni\u00e8re que pour le moment la situation est globalement g\u00e9rable (localement pas toujours).\n\nDans le m\u00eame esprit, les dommages aux infrastructures sont vite r\u00e9par\u00e9s, gr\u00e2ce aux cimenteries, aci\u00e9ries, camions et tractopelles, donc encore l'\u00e9nergie.\n\nEt plus tard ? 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Dans le m\u00eame temps, l'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique - conditionnant notre capacit\u00e9 d'adaptation - va finir par baisser partout.\n\nCe dernier point n'est pas \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans le r\u00e9sum\u00e9 pour d\u00e9cideurs (je n'ai pas regard\u00e9 pour les autres documents), tout simplement parce qu'il n'est pas \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans la litt\u00e9rature acad\u00e9mique.\n\nCela signifie que les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9voqu\u00e9es dans ce rapport sont tr\u00e8s certainement un minorant de ce que nous risquons, et que nous n'avons pas fini d'avoir des (mauvaises) surprises." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6904315947323056128,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6904315948187078656,urn:li:activity:6904315948187078656,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 92, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { 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C'est \u00e9galement le cas pour le p\u00e9trole : 30% de l'or noir et des produits raffin\u00e9s import\u00e9s en Europe g\u00e9ographique (donc avec la Norv\u00e8ge et la Grande Bretagne, qui sont les deux seuls producteurs significatifs mais qui ne font plus partie de l'Union) vient de notre grand voisin de l'Est. Les importations europ\u00e9ennes (au sens g\u00e9ographique) repr\u00e9sentent environ les 3/4 de notre consommation d'hydrocarbures liquides (et 96% si nous nous limitons \u00e0 la seule Union).\n\nSym\u00e9triquement, l'Europe repr\u00e9sente la moiti\u00e9 des ventes de p\u00e9trole et de produits raffin\u00e9s de la Russie (graphique en commentaire), soit environ 1 milliard de barils par an. A environ 100 dollars le baril, nous sommes donc clients de la Russie pour environ 100 milliards de dollars par an pour nos barils.\n\nA 80 euros le MWh, il faut y rajouter une somme \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s \u00e9quivalente pour le gaz, dont l'Allemagne est de loin le premier client europ\u00e9en (voir graphique ci-dessous).\n\nS'il ne s'agissait pas de combustibles fossiles, cette situation serait en fait plut\u00f4t une bonne nouvelle : cette d\u00e9pendance mutuelle entre la Russie et l'Europe est normalement un \u00e9l\u00e9ment qui incite chaque camp \u00e0 rester \"raisonnable\", pour \u00e9viter de trop se mettre \u00e0 dos un partenaire en affaires.\n\nUne difficult\u00e9 de plus, quand nous sortirons des \u00e9nergies fossiles, ce qui se passera de gr\u00e9 ou de force, sera de maintenir des liens bas\u00e9s sur \"autre chose\" avec nos ex-fournisseurs d'hydrocarbures, pour que chacun continue \u00e0 avoir un peu besoin de l'autre. C'\u00e9tait le principe fondateur de l'Union europ\u00e9enne : rester un peu d\u00e9pendant de ses partenaires, histoire de ne pas se sentir trop libre de leur envoyer des obus \u00e0 la figure au premier coup de sang. Toute la question est, comme toujours, de savoir o\u00f9 mettre le curseur." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6903969936415227904,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6903969937296027648,urn:li:activity:6903969937296027648,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 64, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6903969937296027648,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6903969937296027648,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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En bleu, l'ann\u00e9e en cours, en rouge 2017, l'ann\u00e9e recors pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. \u00a9 NSIDC." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9021352721116767705)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9021352721116767705)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "meteofrance.com \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Recul record de la banquise antarctique cet \u00e9t\u00e9 2022 ! by meteofrance.com", "actionTarget": "https://meteofrance.com/actualites-et-dossiers/actualites/recul-record-de-la-banquise-antarctique-cet-ete-2022" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Recul record de la banquise antarctique cet \u00e9t\u00e9 2022 !" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6903666062835937280,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un malheur n'en chasse pas un autre, malheureusement. Pendant que les yeux sont riv\u00e9s (\u00e0 juste titre) sur ce qui passe \u00e0 l'Est de l'Europe, les effets d\u00e9j\u00e0 enclench\u00e9s du changement climatique continuent leur petit bonhomme de chemin. \n\nLa banquise antarctique vient d'enregistrer un record de faible \u00e9tendue \u00e0 la fin de l'\u00e9t\u00e9 austral. En quoi cela nous concerne, vont se demander certain(e)s ?\n\nSur notre plan\u00e8te, beaucoup de choses sont interconnect\u00e9es. La diminution de la banquise change fortement le pouvoir r\u00e9flexif de la surface au rayonnement solaire : avec de la glace, l'essentiel de ce dernier repart dans l'espace ; avec de l'eau, l'essentiel est absorb\u00e9 et contribue donc \u00e0 chauffer plus vite l'oc\u00e9an austral.\n\nUn oc\u00e9an plus chaud d\u00e9stabilise plus vite les langues terminales des glaciers antarctiques, langues qui sont pos\u00e9es sur l'eau et donc \"grignot\u00e9es\" par le dessous \u00e0 vitesse acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e.\n\nCela contribue \u00e0 diminuer la \"r\u00e9sistance\" des glaciers \u00e0 l'amont qui servent parfois d'ac-boutant pour stabiliser des glaciers encore plus \u00e0 l'amont ; une partie de la calotte antarctique \u00e9tant en fait une esp\u00e8ce de ch\u00e2teau de cartes o\u00f9 les glaciers de consolident les uns les autres (et en plus une partie de la calotte est pos\u00e9e sur un socle rocheux sous-marin).\n\nL'acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du r\u00e9chauffement local pourrait donc avoir des r\u00e9percussions plan\u00e9taires, parce que ce qui est en jeu l\u00e0-bas est que l'oc\u00e9an mondial s'\u00e9l\u00e8ve ou pas de plus de 10 m\u00e8tres en quelques si\u00e8cles. Certes, quelques si\u00e8cles c'est plus lointain que l'horizon de temps associ\u00e9 \u00e0 la guerre en Ukraine, ou \u00e0 tout autre processus qui serait susceptible de d\u00e9stabiliser nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u00e0 plus br\u00e8ve \u00e9ch\u00e9ance.\n\nMais ce \"rouleau compresseur\" en marche viendra en rajouter - bien avant quelques si\u00e8cles - \u00e0 d'autres probl\u00e8mes. Bienvenue dans le 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle, o\u00f9 il faudra garder un oeil sur plus d'un risque, et du coup avoir des plans qui soient compatibles avec la partie d\u00e9j\u00e0 non \u00e9vitable des cons\u00e9quences de nos actes pass\u00e9s. Pour le moment, l'impression g\u00e9n\u00e9rale est plut\u00f4t celle d'\u00eatre pris au d\u00e9pourvu \u00e0 chaque fois qu'il y a un \u00e9cart \u00e0 la \"pr\u00e9vision\" d'un monde ma\u00eetrisable et continu." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6903666062835937280,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6903666063389597696,urn:li:activity:6903666063389597696,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 56, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6903666063389597696,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6903666063389597696,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": 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"L'invasion russe en Ukraine pourrait-elle propulser le prix des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales vers des sommets ? La Russie, c'est environ 20% du bl\u00e9 faisant l'objet d'un commerce du commerce international. L'Ukraine, c'est un peu moins de 10% (https://lnkd.in/exKqJ5Hu ).\n\nDe ce fait, l'ensemble combin\u00e9 repr\u00e9sente un gros quart des exportations mondiales de cette c\u00e9r\u00e9ale majeure. Y a-t-il en cons\u00e9quence un vrai risque de \"contr\u00f4le des prix\", voire des quantit\u00e9s, par l'agr\u00e9gation politique des deux pays ?\n\nL'observation du prix du bl\u00e9 applicable aux \u00e9changes internationaux (graphique ci-dessous, tir\u00e9 de https://lnkd.in/eFTtRp22 ), montre que depuis 2000 le premier d\u00e9terminant du prix du bl\u00e9 est... le prix du p\u00e9trole. Le cours de cette c\u00e9r\u00e9ale est mont\u00e9 vers des sommets lors du choc de 2008, puis celui de 2010 - 2014, et est reparti \u00e0 la hausse depuis 2020 exactement comme celui du p\u00e9trole.\n\nEst-ce un effet inflationniste du au fait que le bl\u00e9 se cultive avec des engrais (fabriqu\u00e9s avec du gaz, dont le cours est index\u00e9 sur celui du p\u00e9trole) et des tracteurs fonctionnant au p\u00e9trole ?\n\nUn peu, mais cela n'explique pas une multiplication par 2 du prix. La premi\u00e8re raison est probablement celle d'un arbitrage par les acteurs du march\u00e9 financier (auquel je confesse ne pas avoir tout compris) qui conduit les cours de tr\u00e8s nombreuses commodit\u00e9s \u00e0 \u00e9voluer en parall\u00e8le.\n\nToujours est-il que quand on regarde cette courbe sur longue p\u00e9riode, la hausse des derniers jours n'est pas \"anormale\" : elle s'inscrit juste dans une tendance qui a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 bien avant. \n\nEt comme il est possible que le p\u00e9trole n'ait pas termin\u00e9 sa hausse (l'inverse aussi ! avec ce satan\u00e9 liquide les pr\u00e9visions pr\u00e9cises sont toujours un peu risqu\u00e9es :) ), cela signifie alors que le prix des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales, Ukraine ou pas, continuera de monter.\n\n Cela pourrait d\u00e9clencher d'autres foyers d'instabilit\u00e9 : les pays gros importateurs de nourriture dont l'\u00e9conomie domestique n'est pas au mieux. Cela concerne notamment les pays du sud de la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e largement d\u00e9pendants du tourisme (Egypte et Tunisie), ce dernier \u00e9tant actuellement en phase de difficile r\u00e9mission post-covid.\n\nNous retrouverions alors la m\u00eame conjonction qu'au moment du d\u00e9clenchement du printemps arabe : des sources de devises au plus bas avec un prix de la nourriture import\u00e9e au plus haut. Et on connait la suite.\n\nCe qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de n'est \u00e9videmment pas une pr\u00e9vision. Mais dans notre monde interconnect\u00e9 et faisant face \u00e0 des pressions \"physiques\" croissantes, les effets domino sont ceux qui sont le plus \u00e0 redouter." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6903282406556520448,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6903282407500247040,urn:li:activity:6903282407500247040,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 55, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6903282407500247040,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6903282407500247040,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7446244115826261599)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Guerre en Ukraine : l'UE pr\u00e9pare, cette fois, un train de sanctions massives by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/ukraine-lue-prepare-cette-fois-un-train-de-sanctions-massives-imminent-1389367" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Guerre en Ukraine\u00a0: l'UE pr\u00e9pare, cette fois, un train de sanctions massives" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6902873609014972417,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Je te tiens, tu me tiens par la barbichette : l'Europe voudrait r\u00e9agir \u00e0 l'offensive russe en Ukraine, mais qui tient qui dans cette histoire ? La Russie, c'est un pays richement dot\u00e9 en mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, tr\u00e8s au-del\u00e0 de ce qui est n\u00e9cessaire \u00e0 sa consommation propre. \n\nDe ce fait, le pays exporte massivement p\u00e9trole et gaz, qui contribuent pour pr\u00e8s d'un tiers \u00e0 son PIB (sym\u00e9triquement l'Union d\u00e9pend de la Russie pour le tiers de ses approvisionnement pour ces deux sources d'\u00e9nergie, qui ensemble repr\u00e9sentent plus de la moiti\u00e9 des joules utilis\u00e9s sur le Vieux Continent). Mais il exporte aussi de nombreux minerais et m\u00e9taux, sans lesquels il n'y a pas d'industrie possible (et la France, o\u00f9 tous les candidats parlent de r\u00e9industrialiser - voire l'excellente tribune qui pique de Jean-Marc Vittori sur le sujet : https://lnkd.in/eXX5XskA - ferait bien de se souvenir qu'historiquement l'industrialisation est all\u00e9e avec le contr\u00f4le de l'approvisionnement en mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res).\n\nEntre l'Europe qui a la possibilit\u00e9 \"physique\" de priver les russes de transactions financi\u00e8res (qui se font via le r\u00e9seau SWIFT qu'elle contr\u00f4le), et la Russie qui a la possibilit\u00e9 \"physique\" de mettre l'Union en p\u00e9nurie de gaz et de p\u00e9trole (donc aussi d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9), qui tient qui ?\n\nSi demain matin les russes fermaient NordStream 1, le r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique allemand aurait de bonnes chances de sauter, et... l'Europe aussi n'aurait plus de transactions financi\u00e8res, puisqu'il faut de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour les r\u00e9aliser !\n\nLa strat\u00e9gie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique allemande, qui a consist\u00e9 depuis 20 ans - avec l'appui explicite des antinucl\u00e9aires europ\u00e9ens - \u00e0 se mettre un peu plus \u00e0 la remorque des russes, ne facilite donc pas la t\u00e2che pour essayer de tenir t\u00eate \u00e0 Poutine dans les conditions actuelles. On pourrait remarquer que, l'Europe n'ayant ni chef de guerre ni r\u00e9elle arm\u00e9e commune, \u00eatre cr\u00e9dible en temps de crise militaire est de toute fa\u00e7on une gageure. En outre, en se concentrant sur le consommateur (lib\u00e9ralisation des march\u00e9s, concurrence partout) et en n\u00e9gligeant la strat\u00e9gie de long terme (qui demande parfois de se passer du march\u00e9), notre attelage europ\u00e9en est de toute fa\u00e7on fragile face aux crises.\n\nOr, d'ici \u00e0 2050 il y aura de nombreuses crises, de nombreux impr\u00e9vus partout sur la plan\u00e8te, qui vont secouer la g\u00e9opolitique, notre \u00e9conomie, et donc notre pays. Tout plan de d\u00e9carbonation doit en tenir compte. Pour l'heure, les sc\u00e9narios de \"transition\" sont toujours des sc\u00e9narios \"calmes et sans crises\". Malheureusement la situation actuelle en Ukraine nous rappelle une fois de plus que cela correspond \u00e0 une \u00e9volution du monde qui n'aura pas lieu.\n\nLes \"\u00e9cologistes politiques\" doivent donc aussi avoir des propositions r\u00e9alistes en mati\u00e8re de g\u00e9opolitique et de strat\u00e9gie militaire." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6902873609014972417,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6902873609866395648,urn:li:activity:6902873609866395648,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 394, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6902873609866395648,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6902573746893176832,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les plus gros producteurs de shale oil aux USA ont annonc\u00e9 \u00e0 la presse que m\u00eame \u00e0 200 dollars le baril ils ne d\u00e9cideront pas de produire beaucoup plus qu'aujourd'hui. \n\nLors de la mont\u00e9e en puissance de ce type de p\u00e9trole, un fait avait marqu\u00e9 les observateurs : le secteur perdait continument du cash (fourni par des augmentation de capital et de la dette). A l'origine il y a un fait physique : un nouveau puits de shale oil voit sa production diminuer des 4/5\u00e8 au bout d'un an, parce qu'une roche m\u00e8re fractur\u00e9e ne contient pas le m\u00eame volume extractible qu'un gisement \"conventionnel\" une fois le puits de production en place.\n\nEn phase de croissance de la production, il faut donc forer massivement : \u00e0 la fois pour compenser le d\u00e9clin des puits d\u00e9j\u00e0 for\u00e9s, et pour assurer la croissance.\n\nMais forer des nouveaux puits coute cher. Augmenter la production garantit un cash flow n\u00e9gatif, la laisser d\u00e9cliner (ce qui supprime les nouveaux forages) permet de gagner de l'argent. L'int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9conomique des acteurs du secteur est donc de ne pas augmenter (ou tr\u00e8s peu) la production. Mais cela signifie que le shale oil ne peut pas compenser le d\u00e9clin des autres productions, d\u00e9clin enclench\u00e9 depuis 2008 dans le monde, et donc que la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re mondiale devrait significativement d\u00e9cliner d'ici \u00e0 2050, climat ou pas.\n\nLe p\u00e9trole restant un facteur limitant de l'activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique mondiale (car il permet l'essentiel des transports), il est donc probable que les flux physiques vont se retrouver de plus en plus contraints \u00e0 l'avenir. Macro\u00e9conomiquement, cela signifie que le plus probable pour les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir est un PIB contract\u00e9 en tendance (du moins tant qu'on le compte pareil), et, physiquement, des ressources mat\u00e9rielles (nourriture, m\u00e9taux, objets...) de plus en plus difficiles \u00e0 produire et mettre \u00e0 disposition en quantit\u00e9s identiques et au m\u00eame endroit.\n\nIl sera int\u00e9ressant de voir si le lien est fait entre cette annonce am\u00e9ricaine et les perspectives \"de facilit\u00e9\" (en pratique un PIB croissant) mises en avant par les ex\u00e9cutifs europ\u00e9ens, \u00e0 commencer par ceux qui briguent cette place en France. Cela fera partie des choses que The Shift Project regardera quand il passera \u00e0 la loupe les programmes des candidat(e)s." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6902573746893176832,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6902573747639787521,urn:li:activity:6902573747639787521,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 22, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6902573747639787521,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6902573747639787521,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"text": "Le Financial Times publie un article (qui occupe une pleine page dans l'\u00e9dition papier) sur le fait que les produits financiers dits \"verts\" pourraient faire de plus en plus l'objet de proc\u00e9dures pour fraude (ou quelque chose d'\u00e9quivalent), parce que leur caract\u00e9ristique \"verte\" n'est pas comprise de la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re par le vendeur et l'acheteur, le premier en ayant une compr\u00e9hension plus \"accommodante\" que le second.\n\nEt, du coup, lorsque le second se rend compte qu'il n'a pas achet\u00e9 ce qu'il croyait acheter, il pourrait demander r\u00e9paration, quand bien m\u00eame il n'a subi aucune perte financi\u00e8re. Ca serait au fond une esp\u00e8ce de r\u00e9paration d'un pr\u00e9judice moral.\n\nIl se pourrait donc que les juges conf\u00e8rent un caract\u00e8re plus contraignant \u00e0 cette affirmation de verdeur que ce que les concepteur de ces produits ont en t\u00eate, ces derniers consid\u00e9rant un peu trop souvent que l'important est de dire que l'on est vert et moins la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de ce qui est fait.\n\nDe fait, dans le monde financier, le c\u00f4t\u00e9 \"vert\" est aujourd'hui l'objet de d\u00e9finitions o\u00f9 chacun voit facilement midi \u00e0 sa porte. Si le droit devient le juge de paix (c'est le cas de le dire), quelle pourrait \u00eatre l'interpr\u00e9tation de ce qui est \"durable\" ? La Palisse nous dit que cela signifie une activit\u00e9 capable de durer (!), et au niveau du climat, dit un avocat, cela signifiera \"align\u00e9 avec l'accord de Paris\". \n\nEn pratique, il faudra donc une m\u00e9thode opposable et partag\u00e9e qui permette de comprendre si un produit financier est effectivement capable de r\u00e9sister \u00e0 une baisse de 5% des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires tous les ans (car c'est cela \"align\u00e9 avec l'accord de Paris\"). Il sera int\u00e9ressant de voir si des tribunaux sont capables d'aller \u00e0 ce niveau de technicit\u00e9, et ce qu'il en sort. \n\nMais ce qui est sur, c'est que le risque existe pour des acteurs du monde financier de se faire prendre la main dans le pot de peinture verte, car la pratique actuelle est trop souvent bas\u00e9e sur des fondements th\u00e9oriques plus que discutables. Ce qui est sugg\u00e9r\u00e9 dans cet article, c'est que la seule affirmation qui soit valable est de dire que \"tel produit est mieux plac\u00e9 que tel autre en ce qui concerne le climat\" (ce qui, soit dit en passant, est exactement la philosophie des m\u00e9thodes utilis\u00e9es au sein de Carbon 4 Finance). 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"editableAccessibilityText": true, "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "accessibilityText": "chart, line chart" } ], "showTemplateCta": false } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6901793515475415040,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans sa derni\u00e8re livraison concernant l'avenir possible du syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique, RTE annonce la mise \u00e0 l'\u00e9tude d'une variante \"mondialisation contrari\u00e9e\" du cadrage macro\u00e9conomique de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence (qui sert pour les analyses \u00e9conomiques). D\u00e9crit \u00e0 partir de la page 194 du document https://lnkd.in/eAp4RVwn, cette variante est moins optimiste que la version de base sur la croissance \u00e9conomique (de 1,4% par an sur les 30 ans \u00e0 venir) et sur la disponibilit\u00e9 des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res (dans la version de base on suppose une \"absence de tensions particuli\u00e8res sur les approvisionnements en mati\u00e8res et composants n\u00e9cessaires au d\u00e9veloppement de nouvelles infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques\").\n\nOr, RTE consid\u00e8re sagement que \"Il est cependant n\u00e9cessaire de s\u2019interroger quant \u00e0 la robustesse des sc\u00e9narios vis-\u00e0-vis d\u2019un contexte global plus adverse, qui ne peut pas \u00eatre exclu vu\nd\u2019aujourd\u2019hui\". RTE note par exemple que le prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res est fortement remont\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment (ce qui est aussi vrai pour les composants du PV), que la mondialisation (qui est bas\u00e9e sur le p\u00e9trole) est aujourd'hui indispensable \u00e0 la fourniture de composants indispensables \u00e0 bas cout, et donc que sa poursuite n'est pas assur\u00e9e, etc.\n\nDans la version \"mondialisation contrari\u00e9e\", RTE Ecrit que :\nDe mani\u00e8re caricaturale, deux types d\u2019issues peuvent donc \u00eatre envisag\u00e9es dans l\u2019analyse des implications de cette variante sur le contexte macro\u00e9conomique :\n\u00b0 Dans un premier cas, la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique resterait possible, au prix de r\u00e9percussions n\u00e9gatives sur le pouvoir d\u2019achat des m\u00e9nages\n(avec une baisse des consommations d\u2019\u00e9nergie sous la contrainte) et possiblement de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d\u2019approvisionnement \u00e9lectrique ;\n* Dans l\u2019autre, l\u2019atteinte m\u00eame des objectifs climatiques est \u00e0 interroger.\n\nIl faut saluer le fait qu'une entit\u00e9 publique ose \u00e9crire que l'avenir sera peut-\u00eatre moins facile \u00e0 piloter que le pr\u00e9sent, et que nos paris doivent pouvoir r\u00e9sister \u00e0 un contexte \u00e9conomique chaotique et un approvisionnement en mat\u00e9riaux et composants plus difficile \u00e0 assurer.\n\nC'est bien dans ce contexte que nous devrions d\u00e9sormais faire de la prospective. Si nous avons d'heureuses surprises, on arrivera probablement \u00e0 s'en accommoder sans trop de difficult\u00e9s. Mais, \u00e0 l'inverse, prendre pour acquis que le contexte sera facile nous laisse sans boussole si ce n'est pas le cas, alors m\u00eame que tous les signaux se conjuguent - h\u00e9las - pour nous dire que c'est un monde plus volatil et moins g\u00e9n\u00e9reux sur le plan des ressources qui s'annonce." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6901793515475415040,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6901793516540739584,urn:li:activity:6901793516540739584,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 19, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6901793516540739584,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6901431975266062336,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il \u00e9tait \u00e0 un peu moins de 60 dollars il y a un an, et m\u00eame transitoirement \u00e0 -37 dollars en avril 2020, au moment du premier confinement plan\u00e9taire du au covid : le baril de p\u00e9trole approche d\u00e9sormais les 100. \n\nCette hausse n'est pas compl\u00e8tement une surprise : au moment du covid, le prix s'\u00e9tant effondr\u00e9, les investissements dans la production ont fait de m\u00eame, et du coup au moment o\u00f9 le monde voudrait en consommer plus, l'offre ne suit pas.\n\nLes pays de l'OPEP+, par exemple (l'OPEP + rassemble les pays de l'OPEP et une dizaine d'autres dont la Russie, le Kazakhstan et le Mexique) produisent actuellement en dessous du quota qu'ils se sont fix\u00e9. Dans les diverses causes auxquelles on peut penser, il y a tout simplement le fait qu'il ne leur est techniquement pas possible de sortir plus de barils actuellement, par manque de capacit\u00e9s de production... ou de p\u00e9trole \u00e0 extraire.\n\nCertains de ces pays ont en effet pass\u00e9 leur pic de production de mani\u00e8re certaine (le Mexique, l'Alg\u00e9rie, le Nig\u00e9ria ou encore le Venezuela, et la Russie - 30% du p\u00e9trole utilis\u00e9 en Europe - n'en est pas loin si ce n'est d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait) et la question se pose pour d'autres. \n\nRappelons que, pour le p\u00e9trole dit \"conventionnel\" (tout ce qui n'est pas shale oil et sables bitumineux), le pic mondial a \u00e9t\u00e9 pass\u00e9 en 2008, aux dires de l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie. \n\nDu coup, et c'est exactement ce que sugg\u00e8re cet article, en cas d'insuffisance de production, il n'y a pas d'autre mani\u00e8re d'\u00e9quilibrer la situation que de d\u00e9truire de la demande. Cela passe notamment par des prix qui montent. \n\nIl est assez facile de th\u00e9oriser que lorsque l'\u00e9conomie manque d'un facteur de production qui lui est essentiel (ce qui est le cas pour le p\u00e9trole, sans lequel il n'y a pas de monde \"moderne\"), le prix de ce dernier devient volatil. Au d\u00e9but, le prix monte, mais comme par ailleurs la substance est physiquement indispensable, son d\u00e9faut d\u00e9truit du PIB. Cette destruction fait baisser la demande, et du coup le prix baisse. \n\nA ce moment les producteurs ne sont pas incit\u00e9s \u00e0 faire sortir de terre le baril marginal (qui est le plus cher), alors que les gisements en cours d'exploitation voient globalement leur production baisser, et l'offre se tasse. M\u00eame avec une demande diminu\u00e9e, le prix se met alors \u00e0 remonter, et c'est reparti pour un cycle. La \"longueur d'onde\" de cette volatilit\u00e9 est notamment fonction du temps de mise en oeuvre des investissements pour faire remonter (autant que faire se peut) la production.\n\nNe pas d\u00e9carboner nos \u00e9conomies (et en particulier ne pas les \"d\u00e9p\u00e9troliser\") de mani\u00e8re organis\u00e9e nous exposera de mani\u00e8re structurelle \u00e0 cette volatilit\u00e9 des prix du p\u00e9trole, et, par effet de ricochet, \u00e0 une volatilit\u00e9 de beaucoup d'autres prix (comme ceux du gaz. Et du coup, cela l\u00e9gitime cette plaisanterie des personnes du secteur : en mati\u00e8re de p\u00e9trole, vous pouvez donner un prix ou vous pouvez donner une date, mais jamais les deux en m\u00eame temps !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6901431975266062336,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6901431976121679872,urn:li:activity:6901431976121679872,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 34, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6901431976121679872,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6901431976121679872,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true 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week-end que vous aviez d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 un changement d'employeur, vous serez peut-\u00eatre int\u00e9ress\u00e9 d'apprendre que Carbon 4 Finance se cherche son/sa nouveau/nouvelle DG.\n\nCarbon 4 Finance est la branche \"data\" de Carbone 4, qui fournit au monde financier des donn\u00e9es pour que ce dernier comprenne \"ce qu'il fait\", quels risques il court en ce qui concerne les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, la d\u00e9carbonation, les risques physiques du changement climatique, et enfin qu'il puisse mesurer l'impact sur la biodiversit\u00e9 de ses activit\u00e9s.\n\nNotre promesse n'est pas de permettre \u00e0 nos clients de se verdir sans rien changer \u00e0 leurs pratiques, mais de leur fournir une meilleure appr\u00e9hension de la \"distance au probl\u00e8me\" de leurs activit\u00e9s, pour - id\u00e9alement - les rendre plus matures et donc pertinents sur le sujet.\n\nNous avons d\u00e9velopp\u00e9, en interne pour le climat (risques 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Cela nous conf\u00e8re une forte libert\u00e9 intellectuelle, laquelle nous rend en retour un peu exigeants sur la rigueur m\u00e9thodologique ; on n'a rien sans rien !\n\nLes d\u00e9tails et la mani\u00e8re de postuler sont d\u00e9taill\u00e9es dans l'annonce ci-dessous. 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C'\u00e9tait l'objet de ma petite chronique diffus\u00e9e ce matin (comme tous les Samedi) sur RTL.\n\nPourquoi cette question ? Parce que de se d\u00e9barrasser des combustibles fossiles demande d'utiliser plus de m\u00e9tal, dans un monde qui demande de faire plus de place \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Cette derni\u00e8re doit \u00eatre produite et il faut du m\u00e9tal dans les alternateurs et c\u00e2blages des dispositifs de production. \n\nPlus l'\u00e9nergie disponible dans l'environnement est diffuse (vent et soleil) plut\u00f4t que concentr\u00e9e (combustibles fossiles et accessoirement uranium), et plus il faut de m\u00e9tal par unit\u00e9 d'\u00e9nergie mise \u00e0 disposition des machines que nous utilisons... et qui seront aussi \u00e9lectriques, et donc demanderont aussi du cuivre et d'autres m\u00e9taux.\n\nIl faut par exemple pr\u00e8s de 100 kg de cuivre par voiture \u00e9lectrique contre plut\u00f4t 25 par voiture \u00e0 essence (j'ai dit 5 fois plus dans la chronique ; mea culpa !) ; 10 fois plus de cuivre par kWh produit au solaire que produit par une centrale \u00e9lectrique \"conventionnelle\" ; 5 \u00e0 6 kg de lithium et environ 7 kg de cobalt par voiture (50 kWh de batterie) ; etc.\n\nRares sont les analyses prospectives qui se penchent sur la disponibilit\u00e9 effective des m\u00e9taux pour assurer les d\u00e9carbonations bas\u00e9es sur le passage \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 usages identiques (avec donc peu ou pas de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9). Pour le moment, les sc\u00e9narios de place (dont la SNBC) assument cette disponibilit\u00e9, et les \u00e9conomistes consid\u00e8rent que toute l'information sur la disponibilit\u00e9 physique future est contenue dans le prix du moment. \n\nAvant de se jeter \u00e0 corps perdu dans une trajectoire donn\u00e9e, sachant que nous n'aurons pas de 2\u00e8 essai, il est urgent de passer un peu de temps \u00e0 savoir quels paris nous pouvons prendre et quels paris il vaut mieux \u00e9viter de prendre quand on revient \u00e0 la physique. 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"Open article: Intensified by climate change, Western megadrought is worst in 1,200 years, study finds by msn.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/intensified-by-climate-change-western-megadrought-is-worst-in-1200-years-study-finds/ar-AATPYRu" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Intensified by climate change, Western megadrought is worst in 1,200 years, study finds" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6899983653489700864,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La revue Nature Climate Change a c\u00e9l\u00e9br\u00e9 la Saint Valentin \u00e0 sa mani\u00e8re : en publiant une \u00e9tude qui montre que l'\u00e9pisode de s\u00e9cheresse qui s\u00e9vit actuellement dans le sud-ouest am\u00e9ricain (voir carte qui montre qu'en pleine \"saison des pr\u00e9cipitations\" c'est encore tr\u00e8s tr\u00e8s sec : https://lnkd.in/dQVN83A ) est le plus intense des 1200 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. \n\nComment reconstitue-t-on les pr\u00e9cipitations pass\u00e9es \u00e0 une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 il n'y avait pas de pluviom\u00e8tres ? En analysant les cernes d'arbres (suffisamment vieux, mais il faut savoir que l'on trouve aux USA, pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment dans des r\u00e9gions un peu hostiles o\u00f9 la croissance des arbres est tr\u00e8s lente, des v\u00e9g\u00e9taux vieux de plusieurs milliers d'ann\u00e9es) qui permettent de reconstituer l'humidit\u00e9 du sol.\n\nCette derni\u00e8re conditionne en effet la croissance de l'arbre pour l'ann\u00e9e consid\u00e9r\u00e9e. L'\u00e9talonnage est permis par le fait que la croissance (et la duret\u00e9 du bois pour l'ann\u00e9e de croissance) peut \u00eatre mesur\u00e9e pour des ann\u00e9es r\u00e9centes pour lesquelles les relev\u00e9s de pr\u00e9cipitations sont disponibles.\n\nCette s\u00e9cheresse aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 beaucoup moins probable sans changement climatique, indiquent les chercheurs. cela est coh\u00e9rent avec le fait que les mod\u00e8les climatiques concluent \u00e0 un ass\u00e8chement d'une large partie des sols des moyennes latitudes dans un climat qui se r\u00e9chauffe. Outre une baisse de pr\u00e9cipitations par endroits, d'autres \u00e9l\u00e9ments contribuent \u00e0 cette \u00e9volution :\n- des pr\u00e9cipitations plus irr\u00e9guli\u00e8res, or ce sont les pr\u00e9cipitations r\u00e9guli\u00e8res qui rechargent bien les sols (les \u00e9pisodes pluvieux intenses conduisent \u00e0 un ruissellement intense et l'eau s'\u00e9vacue pour l'essentiel sans p\u00e9n\u00e9trer le sol)\n- une \u00e9vaporation plus intense, \u00e0 cause des temp\u00e9ratures plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es.\n\nCette \u00e9volution n'est \u00e9videmment pas bonne pour la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation. Ni pour les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes naturels, ni pour l'agriculture. Et malheureusement elle ne vas pas s'arr\u00eater le jour o\u00f9 nous commen\u00e7ons \u00e0 baisser les \u00e9missions. En \u00e9viter les effets les plus dramatiques, si nous le pouvons, doit aussi faire partie de nos priorit\u00e9s d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent. \n\nCela demande du jus de cerveau pour comprendre au mieux ce que cela signifie en termes de risques, et des moyens humains et physiques pour \u00e9viter ce qui est \u00e9vitable ensuite. Plus nous tardons, plus nous le regretterons." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6899983653489700864,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6899983654085283840,urn:li:activity:6899983654085283840,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 13, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6899983654085283840,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6899983654085283840,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6899983654085283840", 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6899642715550617600,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le r\u00e9chauffement climatique ne s'\u00e9l\u00e8ve \"que\" \u00e0 1,2 \u00b0C pour la plan\u00e8te, et cependant cela est d\u00e9j\u00e0 suffisant pour conduire le patron de l'Office National des For\u00eats \u00e0 affirmer dans Les Echos que \"La for\u00eat fran\u00e7aise est en train de s\u00e9cher\". Et le m\u00eame d'ajouter que sur 10\u00a0% du territoire national nous verrons d'ici dix \u00e0 vingt ans les effets tr\u00e8s concrets du r\u00e9chauffement (traduire une mortalit\u00e9 s\u00e9v\u00e8re).\n\nUne des choses que nous devons nous mettre en t\u00eate en ce qui concerne le r\u00e9chauffement est que les effets suivent l'\u00e9l\u00e9vation de temp\u00e9rature avec une inertie plus ou moins grande, mais de mani\u00e8re irr\u00e9versible. Pour la for\u00eat, quand bien m\u00eame les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires tomberaient \u00e0 z\u00e9ro demain matin, les cons\u00e9quences du r\u00e9chauffement ayant d\u00e9j\u00e0 eu lieu vont s'amplifier \u00e0 l'avenir, puisque le temps de retour des canicules et s\u00e9cheresses a d\u00e9j\u00e0 diminu\u00e9 (ces derni\u00e8res sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 plus fr\u00e9quentes), et donc que les conditions sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 plus \"dures\" pour les arbres existants (\u00e9pic\u00e9as, h\u00eatres, ch\u00eanes...) qui, petit \u00e0 petit, succombent au stress hydrique. \n\nDans l'Est, explique le directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l'ONF, ce sont les s\u00e9cheresses \u00e0 r\u00e9p\u00e9tition qui ont affaibli les arbres et rendu les conditions favorables \u00e0 la prolif\u00e9ration d'un insecte (le scolyte) qui finit de les achever. Et il s'agit d'\u00e9pic\u00e9as pr\u00e9sents depuis un si\u00e8cle... La France n'est pas un cas isol\u00e9 : au Canada et en Sib\u00e9rie des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes identiques se produisent, auxquels il faut rajouter des incendies qui augmentent, et qui peuvent transformer en peu de temps la for\u00eat existante en un sol quasi-nu.\n\nAdapter la for\u00eat au changement climatique n'est donc pas simple : un arbre plant\u00e9 aujourd'hui doit \u00e0 la fois s'accommoder du climat actuel... mais \u00eatre toujours vivant dans le climat encore plus modifi\u00e9 - et notamment plus sec - que nous aurons dans 50 \u00e0 100 ans - la dur\u00e9e n\u00e9cessaire pour qu'il devienne adulte. \n\nEn plus le remplacement des arbres existants est impos\u00e9 par la mortalit\u00e9 : \"par endroits, le taux d'arbres qui meurent est tel qu'il faut d'abord r\u00e9colter les arbres secs avant d'exploiter les vivants. Nous passons en situation de crise\" explique Bertrand Munch. \n\nReplanter 30% du territoire avec des essences adapt\u00e9es, diversifi\u00e9es, indispensables \u00e0 la fourniture de mat\u00e9riaux, d'\u00e9nergie, de biodiversit\u00e9, d'espaces r\u00e9cr\u00e9atifs, et au cycle de l'eau : voil\u00e0 un projet qui devrait faire l'objet d'un grand programme national mobilisant les finances publiques (un peu plus que la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 virtuelle, le soutien aux cryptomonnaies ou les taxis volants) et justifier le renforcement de certaines fili\u00e8res professionnelles, non ? Et qui m\u00e9riterait un peu plus de place dans les discours politiques..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6899642715550617600,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6899642717047971840,urn:li:activity:6899642717047971840,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 246, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6899642717047971840,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6899642717047971840,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": true, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"pour-un-reveil-ecologique", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:14821160", "trackingId": "wjPD/9StQpq5iBk4jMplhg==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Le 7 f\u00e9vrier dernier, les think tanks Carbon Market Watch (Belgique) et New Climate Institute (Allemagne) ont publi\u00e9 un \"Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor\" qui a pour but \"d'\u00e9valuer la transparence et l'int\u00e9grit\u00e9 des engagements des entreprises en mati\u00e8re de climat\" ((https://lnkd.in/edwRCrCs ).\n\nComme l'expose l'introduction de ce rapport, la plupart des grandes entreprises ont d\u00e9sormais des strat\u00e9gies et des objectifs publics en mati\u00e8re de climat, avec le plus souvent des engagements qui \"\u00e0 premi\u00e8re vue, semblent r\u00e9duire consid\u00e9rablement, voire \u00e9liminer, leurs contributions au r\u00e9chauffement plan\u00e9taire\". \n\nEn pratique, ces entreprises revendiquent souvent une neutralit\u00e9 individuelle, comme par exemple Colissimo qui affiche fi\u00e8rement que la livraison qui vous sera faite sera \"neutre en carbone\", ou Google qui affiche d\u00e9sormais sur sa page d'accueil qu'il est \"neutre en carbone depuis 2007\", excusez du peu.\n\nLes auteurs du rapport se sont demand\u00e9 ce que valaient ces engagements de neutralit\u00e9, maintenant ou pour plus tard. Comme le rapport fait 128 pages, Carbone 4 vous en propose un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 un peu plus rapide \u00e0 lire, qui peut malheureusement lui-m\u00eame se r\u00e9sumer en une phrase : \"les entreprises neutres en carbone, c\u2019est (souvent) n\u2019importe quoi\".\n\nIl est en particulier facile de constater que les entreprises qui se d\u00e9clarent neutres d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, ou qui \"se sont mises en capacit\u00e9 de l'\u00eatre plus tard\", vendent en pratique le m\u00eame produit ou service, aux m\u00eames clients, et avec la m\u00eame organisation et gouvernance qu'avant \u00e0 quelques d\u00e9tails pr\u00e8s. \n\nDu coup, on peut l\u00e9gitimement se demander, m\u00eame sans \u00eatre sp\u00e9cialiste, ce que valent ces engagements. A l'occasion d'une tribune parue dans l'Express il y a un an et demi (https://lnkd.in/dGTt6Zs ), j'avais propos\u00e9 aux lecteurs de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la question \"\u00e0 votre avis, une entreprise peut-elle devenir \"neutre en carbone\" ?\". Le choix \u00e9tait entre \"oui tout de suite\", \"oui plus tard\", \"non jamais\", et \"je ne sais pas\". Certes ce genre de sondage en ligne n'est pas repr\u00e9sentatif, mais il est int\u00e9ressant de noter que les deux derni\u00e8res possibilit\u00e9s ont recueilli plus de la moiti\u00e9 des votes.\n\nDit autrement, tant qu'il n'y a pas de sanction l\u00e9gale \u00e0 affirmer des choses qui n'ont pas de fondement th\u00e9orique solide (https://lnkd.in/db7JzB2q ), le seul risque pour une entreprise est d'appara\u00eetre comme non cr\u00e9dible aupr\u00e8s de ceux qui ont regard\u00e9 la question d'un peu pr\u00e8s (dont les \u00e9tudiants de Pour un r\u00e9veil \u00e9cologique qui chassent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement le greenwashing avec un certain succ\u00e8s). \n\nMais si un jour la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 devient s\u00e9rieuse sur ces questions, il s'av\u00e8rera peut-\u00eatre que les entit\u00e9s qui ont choisi cette voie n'auront pas pris de l'avance, mais, en choisissant de noyer le poisson plut\u00f4t que de prendre le taureau par les cornes, plut\u00f4t du retard." }, "originalLanguage": 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"accessibilityText": "Open video: #10 Jancovici a r\u00e9pondu \u00e0 vos questions - 11/02/2022 on youtube.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A73muGZCooM" }, "description": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Jean-Marc Jancovici a r\u00e9pondu \u00e0 certaines des questions des abonn\u00e9s de sa page Facebook via un live le 11 f\u00e9vrier 2022.. Les questions portent essentiellement sur le PTEF (plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise) du Shift Project. D\u00e9tails sur..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "#10 Jancovici a r\u00e9pondu \u00e0 vos questions - 11/02/2022" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6899047223875694592,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Quand on livre un produit, il est bon de pr\u00e9voir un service apr\u00e8s-vente. C'est plus ou moins l'esprit de ce \"facebook live\" qui porte sur le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf), ou plus exactement qui comporte un certain nombre de r\u00e9ponses \u00e0 des questions qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pos\u00e9es par des internautes \u00e0 propos de ce plan.\n\nComme d'habitude, la proc\u00e9dure est la suivante : la session est annonc\u00e9e quelques jours \u00e0 l'avance sur \"ma\" page FB, et les personnes qui le souhaitent peuvent \u00e0 la fois poser des questions et \"soutenir\" les questions d\u00e9j\u00e0 pos\u00e9es. \n\nLe jour J je prends les questions dans l'ordre descendant des \"soutiens\" pour r\u00e9pondre en premier aux questions les plus \"soutenues\" (et donc qui int\u00e9ressent le plus de monde, du moins dans les personnes qui sont all\u00e9es faire un tour sur la page). Et \u00e0 l'arriv\u00e9e vous avez un superbe plan presque fixe avec de la voix (donc vous pouvez supprimer l'image ou presque !).\n\nLe minutage des questions n'est pas encore disponible mais ca ne devrait pas tarder (d\u00e9sol\u00e9). J'esp\u00e8re que l'on s'y retrouve quand m\u00eame !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6899047223875694592,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6899047224358051840,urn:li:activity:6899047224358051840,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 12, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6899047224358051840,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6899047224358051840,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7429652409169422697)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Sixi\u00e8me extinction de masse : alerte sur une trag\u00e9die silencieuse by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/sciences-prospective/sixieme-extinction-de-masse-alerte-sur-une-tragedie-silencieuse-1386375" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Sixi\u00e8me extinction de masse\u00a0: alerte sur une trag\u00e9die silencieuse" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6898887762959757312,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les Echos consacrent un long article \u00e0 l'extinction des esp\u00e8ces en cours, \u00e0 l'occasion de la publication d'un article scientifique qui vient de sortir (https://lnkd.in/eZnpfjtk ; en libre acc\u00e8s). Cette publication explique en quoi le syst\u00e8me de \"liste rouge\" de l'Union internationale pour la conservation de la nature (UICN) conduit \u00e0 sous-estimer le rythme de disparition, car elle ne concerne quasiment pas les insectes, qui repr\u00e9sentent environ 90% des esp\u00e8ces animales d\u00e9crites, ni les mollusques, qui en repr\u00e9sentent presque 10%.\n\nLes auteurs de la publication scientifique ont regard\u00e9 de pr\u00e8s le groupe des mollusques, et ont ensuite extrapol\u00e9 \u00e0 l'ensemble des esp\u00e8ces, pour en d\u00e9duire que, en ordre de grandeur, de 7,5 \u00e0 13% des 2 millions d'esp\u00e8ces d\u00e9crites avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 disparu depuis 1500. \n\nCela fait donc de 150.000 \u00e0 260.000 esp\u00e8ces qui ont disparu sur environ 2 millions d'esp\u00e8ces d\u00e9crites. Les 5 extinctions de masse qui ont eu lieu depuis 450 millions d'ann\u00e9es avaient pour origine une perturbation de grande ampleur du syst\u00e8me climatique (glaciation, impact d'un m\u00e9t\u00e9orite, volcanisme...). Celle ci a pour origine la domination d'une esp\u00e8ce : nous.\n\nComment agir ? Comme pour le climat, cela sera plus vite dit que fait. La premi\u00e8re cause de perte de biodiversit\u00e9 est la perte d'habitats, et la premi\u00e8re cause de cette perte est due \u00e0 l'activit\u00e9 agricole. Cette derni\u00e8re consiste en effet \u00e0 remplacer des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes naturels par des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes dirig\u00e9s comportant beaucoup moins d'esp\u00e8ces, \u00e0 la fois v\u00e9g\u00e9tales (on se limite aux plantes ou arbres cultiv\u00e9s) et animales (on supprime autant que possible l'acc\u00e8s aux \"ravageurs\").\n\nLa taille de la population est donc un premier d\u00e9terminant : plus nous sommes nombreux, plus nous avons de production v\u00e9g\u00e9tale et plus la \"nature\" dispose de peu d'espace. \n\nMais \u00e0 cela sont venus se rajouter les \"agressions chimiques\" de toute nature (d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9e comme celle des phytosanitaires ou involontaire) ainsi que le changement climatique (incendies, s\u00e9cheresses). Et, comme pour le climat, les urbains en bout de chaine, physiquement d\u00e9connect\u00e9s des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes qui nous permettent de vivre, ont du mal \u00e0 faire le lien entre leurs comportements et ce qui cr\u00e9e des pressions \"ailleurs\" sur la biodiversit\u00e9. \n\nIl reste peu de temps pour \u00e0 la fois d\u00e9ployer les syst\u00e8mes comptables \u00e9mergents qui permettent de faire un \u00e9tat de la pression sur la biodiversit\u00e9 d'une activit\u00e9 donn\u00e9e, et tenter de corriger le tir. Comme pour le climat pourrait-on dire..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6898887762959757312,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6898887763693752320,urn:li:activity:6898887763693752320,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 110, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6898887763693752320,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6898887763693752320,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6898887763693752320", 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r\u00e9cente d'Emmanuel Macron sur le nucl\u00e9aire (se doter d'une strat\u00e9gie ambitieuse dans le domaine) est assur\u00e9ment pertinente au regard du contexte et du d\u00e9fi climatique. Elle pose cependant quelques questions :\n- y aura-t-il la stabilit\u00e9 politique \u00e0 suivre ?\n- y aura-t-il les comp\u00e9tences ?\n- y aura-t-il le financement ?\n- y aura-t-il la stabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9glementaire \u00e0 un niveau qui soit le bon ?\n- et, surtout, pourquoi avoir chang\u00e9 d'avis depuis la fermeture de Fessenheim ?\n\nCes questions sont interconnect\u00e9es. Par exemple, la volont\u00e9 politique dans la dur\u00e9e est indispensable pour susciter des vocations chez les jeunes ou les personnes en mobilit\u00e9 professionnelle, ce qui permettra d'avoir des comp\u00e9tences. Au moment de la construction du parc existant, qui a pris 20 ans, les comp\u00e9tences n\u00e9cessaires sont pour partie apparues en cours de route et c'est normal.\n\nLe cout de l'argent pour financer la construction ou les op\u00e9rations de maintenance lourde (le \"grand car\u00e9nage\") est fonction du risque per\u00e7u par les pr\u00eateurs et investisseurs, et ce risque est bien \u00e9videmment consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 quand on a peur que le pouvoir politique revire sur le sujet et ferme pr\u00e9matur\u00e9ment une installation, ou lui complique inutilement la vie en poussant des r\u00e9glementations qui sont excessivement prudentes.\n\nLa stabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9glementaire au bon niveau est aussi n\u00e9cessairement fonction du degr\u00e9 de volontarisme du moment. M\u00eame si l'ASN est ind\u00e9pendante, elle prend fatalement appui sur l'ambiance du moment en ce qui concerne le soutien politique et de la population au nucl\u00e9aire. Plus on veut un r\u00e9sultat, plus on est pr\u00eat \u00e0 prendre de risques assum\u00e9s pour y arriver ! (et inversement)\n\nLa question de fond est donc celle de la stabilit\u00e9 politique. Et, en d\u00e9mocratie, cela renvoie au consensus qui s'est forg\u00e9 (ou pas) \u00e0 \"l'\u00e9tage en dessous\", c'est \u00e0 dire \u00e0 la volont\u00e9 populaire (ou pas) de disposer d'une fili\u00e8re nucl\u00e9aire offensive. Si c'est le cas, comme nous avons dans ce pays un consensus sur le fait d'avoir une s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale par exemple, alors la stabilit\u00e9 politique suivra. \n\nEt cela donne peut-\u00eatre la cl\u00e9 de lecture sur \"pourquoi ce revirement\". L'opinion a chang\u00e9 sur le sujet du nucl\u00e9aire ces deux derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, avec un soutien qui est devenu nettement plus marqu\u00e9. Difficile de savoir pourquoi sans disposer d'\u00e9tudes approfondies. On peut penser au climat (dont le fait que le nucl\u00e9aire soit une \u00e9nergie bas carbone devient compris par une part croissante de la population), au prix de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 qui a fortement augment\u00e9 pour le consommateur final, aux ENR qui ne semblent pas si faciles que cela \u00e0 d\u00e9ployer \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle, \u00e0 la question de l'emploi (il y a quand m\u00eame un peu de monde dans la fili\u00e8re)...\n\nDans tous les cas de figure, ce mouvement gagne du terrain, y compris dans les rangs des Verts. Et c'est probablement ce dernier \u00e9l\u00e9ment qui a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9cider Macron de franchir le pas \u00e0 la veille d'une \u00e9lection. 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\u00e9voquer cette fonte dont nous pouvons penser, nous fran\u00e7ais(es), qu'elle ne nous concerne pas, puisque notre territoire ne se situe pas aux hautes latitudes nord ?\n\nPour deux raisons, \u00e9voqu\u00e9es dans cette chronique :\n- d'une part nous avons du permafrost en France, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la temp\u00e9rature est n\u00e9gative une large partie de l'ann\u00e9e : au sommet des montages (en gros au-dessus de la limite des glaciers et neiges \u00e9ternelles), et sa fonte aura des effets visibles\n- d'autre part parce que sa fonte aux hautes latitudes va amplifier le r\u00e9chauffement climatique en acc\u00e9l\u00e9rant le rel\u00e2chement de m\u00e9thane.\n\nOn appelle dans les media les sujets qui ne d\u00e9pendent pas de l'actualit\u00e9 du jour (ou de la semaine) des sujets \"froids\". 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9071889527875108654)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "funradio.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L'invit\u00e9 du Vacher Time - Jean-Marc Jancovici by funradio.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.funradio.fr/programmes/le-vacher-time/7900123292-l-invite-du-vacher-time-jean-marc-jancovici" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'invit\u00e9 du Vacher Time - Jean-Marc Jancovici" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6897810363098689536,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Etre invit\u00e9 sur Fun Radio, c'est bien la derni\u00e8re chose \u00e0 laquelle je m'attendais lorsque The Shift Project s'est mis \u00e0 la planche \u00e0 dessin pour accoucher du Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise.\n\nUn media \u00e9voque rarement des sujets qui vont compl\u00e8tement le couper de son audience. J'ai donc envie de penser (j'esp\u00e8re pas \u00e0 tort !) que si j'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 convi\u00e9 \u00e0 causer sur cette antenne, c'est parce que de l'autre c\u00f4t\u00e9 du poste de radio (ou de l'ordinateur ou du t\u00e9l\u00e9phone) \u00e0 cette heure l\u00e0 (\u00e2ge moyen 18 \u00e0 35 ans m'a-t-on dit) il y a de l'int\u00e9r\u00eat.\n\nOn ne va pas s'en plaindre, tout le rebours. Pour effectuer dans la dur\u00e9e (des d\u00e9cennies) la transformation de notre \u00e9conomie, il est essentiel d'y int\u00e9resser d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent la jeune g\u00e9n\u00e9ration, qui devra id\u00e9alement avoir envie de se former sur les emplois dont la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 devra disposer, et avoir envie d'adopter un \"mode de vie\" qui soit en ad\u00e9quation avec les possibilit\u00e9s physiques du monde.\n\nIl semblerait que l'envie de voir des propositions (s\u00e9rieuses de pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence) sur l'environnement ne soit pas limit\u00e9 aux auditeurs de cette radio (tant mieux !) si l'on en croit cet article du Monde : https://lnkd.in/eSCUx55x\n\nThe Shift Project a pr\u00e9vu un dispositif \"d'interpellation\" des candidat(e)s sur les th\u00e8mes qui nous sont chers, pour savoir ce qu'ils proposent et donner notre avis. 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6897446108243509248,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Tou(te)s celles et ceux qui ont achet\u00e9 ou vendu un logement y ont eu affaire : le Diagnostic de Performance Energ\u00e9tique, ou DPE, qui classe le logement en fonction... de sa performance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. A c'est pour un logement tr\u00e8s \u00e9conome, et G pour ce que l'on appelle une \"passoire thermique\" (F aussi du reste). \n\nCe DPE ne tenait compte, jusqu'\u00e0 maintenant, que de la consommation d'\u00e9nergie, mais ne se pr\u00e9occupait pas du type d'\u00e9nergie en question. Il \u00e9tait donc possible d'avoir une meilleure note avec un logement chauff\u00e9 au fioul qu'avec un logement chauff\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, alors m\u00eame que le second aurait conduit \u00e0 beaucoup moins d'\u00e9missions que le premier \u00e0 usage identique.\n\nDu coup il y avait aussi une \"\u00e9tiquette gaz \u00e0 effet de serre\" qui concernait elle uniquement les \u00e9missions de CO2, mais c'\u00e9tait n\u00e9anmoins celle sur l'\u00e9nergie qui \u00e9tait syst\u00e9matiquement cit\u00e9e et prise en compte dans les actions, beaucoup moins celle sur les \u00e9missions. Mettre les deux informations dans une m\u00eame note est bien plus pertinent, m\u00eame si les seuils choisis peuvent toujours se discuter.\n\nD'autres imperfections existaient dans le mode de calcul du DPE : par exemple, le b\u00e2timent pouvait \u00eatre mieux not\u00e9 simplement parce qu'il \u00e9tait moins utilis\u00e9 (alors que la note doit refl\u00e9ter ses performances intrins\u00e8ques et non sa temp\u00e9rature de consigne ou sa vacance).\n\nLes modifications et novations (par exemple la cr\u00e9ation d'un DPE collectif pour les immeubles) sont d\u00e9taill\u00e9es et comment\u00e9es dans cet article qui vous est propos\u00e9 par la pratique b\u00e2timent de Carbone 4. 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"PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Bruno Le Maire a fait quelques affirmations sur l'\u00e9nergie sur France Inter qui m'ont sembl\u00e9 m\u00e9riter quelques pr\u00e9cisions.\n\nIl a dit \"L'Europe doit \u00eatre ind\u00e9pendante du point de vue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\". L'Union importe actuellement 96% de son p\u00e9trole (dont 35% de Russie), 80% de son gaz (un tiers russe aussi) et 35% de son charbon. Elle importe 100% de son uranium, quasiment 100% de ses panneaux solaires, une fraction de ses \u00e9oliennes, 100% de son cuivre (n\u00e9cessaire aux r\u00e9seaux et appareils \u00e9lectriques), 100% des m\u00e9taux pour batteries, et j'en passe. Ne pas d\u00e9pendre de pays tiers pour des denr\u00e9es indispensables \u00e0 notre syst\u00e8me \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique sera h\u00e9las impossible. De quelle ind\u00e9pendance parle-t-on ?\n\nBruno Le Maire impute la hausse des prix de l'\u00e9nergie \u00e0 la \"demande plus forte que pr\u00e9vue\" en p\u00e9trole et en gaz \u00e0 cause de la reprise. Il ne faudrait pas oublier ce qui a jou\u00e9 encore plus (sans jugement de valeur sur la pertinence de la hausse des taxes) : la mise de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans le march\u00e9 (qui cale les prix spot pour tous sur le mode de production le plus on\u00e9reux), le prix des quotas qui atteint pas loin de 100 euros la tonne de CO2 et qui rench\u00e9rit le MWh au gaz, la hausse des taxes sur les carburants (notamment le diesel) et enfin la fiscalit\u00e9 (d'abord affect\u00e9e aux ENR, puis non affect\u00e9e) qui a augment\u00e9 sur l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. \n\nIl esp\u00e8re que d'ici la fin 2022 les prix vont baisser. Que disent \"les march\u00e9s\" ? Le prix du gaz pour livraison dans un an et dans deux ans est \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s le m\u00eame que le prix pour demain. Un peu plus loin il a parl\u00e9 de \"sortie de crise\". Mais si le gaz reste proche de 100 euros le MWh (et donc l'\u00e9lec pas loin de 250 avec le rendement des centrales et le prix du CO2) pendant 2 ans, ca n'est plus vraiment \"une crise\", c'est plut\u00f4t un nouvel \u00e9tat de fait....\n\nBruno Le Maire explique que l'Etat a impos\u00e9 une charge de 8 milliards \u00e0 EDF (dont une partie financera une filiale de Total !) \"parce que c'est une entreprise publique\" et \"sous le contr\u00f4le de l'Etat\". Cela veut-il dire que l'on ne peut pas, au nom de l'int\u00e9r\u00eat g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, imposer une charge \u00e0 une entreprise priv\u00e9e ? Que l'Etat n'a aucun contr\u00f4le sur le secteur priv\u00e9 ? \n\nLe ministre qualifie EDF de \"service public\". Objection votre honneur : si on a voulu un march\u00e9 concurrentiel il n'y a plus de service public. Il y a des concurrents, et si on fait les poches de l'un d'eux on doit faire les poches de tous. Cela n'emp\u00eache pas l'invit\u00e9 de dire un peu plus loin que pour les p\u00e9troliers \"c'est \u00e0 eux de faire des propositions\" (aucune obligation !). Amusant... \n\nEnfin notre ministre d\u00e9clare que \"nous avons des besoins en \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d\u00e9carbon\u00e9s infiniment sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 ce \u00e0 quoi nous nous attendions\". 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Les Indon\u00e9siens manquent d\u2019huile de palme, utilis\u00e9e pour la production de biocarburants by courrierinternational.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.courrierinternational.com/une/consommation-les-indonesiens-manquent-dhuile-de-palme-utilisee-pour-la-production-de" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Consommation. Les Indon\u00e9siens manquent d\u2019huile de palme, utilis\u00e9e pour la production de biocarburants" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6896758520197251072,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ma casserole contre ta voiture : la diminution de l'usage des combustibles fossiles sur une plan\u00e8te peupl\u00e9e de 8 milliards d'individus va conduire de plus en plus fr\u00e9quemment \u00e0 des conflits sur l'utilisation des sols, dont le produit (la biomasse) est \"r\u00e9clam\u00e9e\" pour des usages multiples :\n- se nourrir\n- se d\u00e9placer en mode motoris\u00e9 (carburants)\n- produire des mat\u00e9riaux (bois, coton ou lin, chanvre...)\n- profiter \u00e0 la biodiversit\u00e9 (auquel cas on pr\u00e9l\u00e8ve un minimum car on \"laisse la nature tranquille\").\n\nA ce la on peut rajouter un usage hors biomasse qui est d'implanter des b\u00e2timents et infrastructures (voies de communication), qui peut inclure de la biomasse \"r\u00e9cr\u00e9ative\" (espaces verts, par exemple).\n\nAux USA la concurrence entre voitures et assiettes est d\u00e9j\u00e0 tr\u00e8s significative sur le ma\u00efs. 40% des cultures de cette c\u00e9r\u00e9ale servent \u00e0 produire de l'\u00e9thanol pour mettre dans les r\u00e9servoirs et non \u00e0 nourrir des gens (peu !) ou des animaux (beaucoup). Et comme les d\u00e9tenteurs de voiture ont souvent plus de pouvoir d'achat que ceux qui n'en ont pas, il se passe alors le processus suivant, que l'on voit aussi arriver en Indon\u00e9sie : l'achat de la denr\u00e9e pour des usages \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques est plus rentable pour les producteurs que pour nourrir des gens. \n\nIl est malheureusement probable que cette concurrence va s'amplifier \u00e0 l'avenir, et que la tentative de basculer sur le flux solaire courant des usages qui se sont d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s avec du d\u00e9stockage de flux solaire ancien (les combustibles solides) va cr\u00e9er de plus en plus de tensions sur l'alimentation." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6896758520197251072,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6896758521564602368,urn:li:activity:6896758521564602368,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 28, 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r\u00e9approvisionn\u00e9 \u00e0 intervalles r\u00e9guliers de toute fa\u00e7on d'ici \u00e0 avril).\n\nOn ne refait pas les media : on a plus parl\u00e9 de nucl\u00e9aire \u00e0 l'antenne que dans le PTEF (o\u00f9 il en est un peu question au chapitre \u00e9nergie - un chapitre sur 15 !), et j'invite \u00e9videmment tout(e) un(e) chacun(e) \u00e0 en juger par lui ou elle-m\u00eame, en lisant le livre publi\u00e9 chez Odile Jacob, en assistant \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sentation de cet apr\u00e8s-midi, ou en regardant les documents publi\u00e9s directement par The Shift Project sur le site https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf\n\nBien \u00e9videmment notre travail (au Shift Project) ne va pas s'arr\u00eater ce soir : nous sommes plus au d\u00e9but d'un processus qu'\u00e0 la fin, puisque dans la vraie vie la d\u00e9carbonation \u00e0 la bonne vitesse n'a pas vraiment commenc\u00e9 !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6896405102949646336,fr)" }, 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], "editableAccessibilityText": true, "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "accessibilityText": "No alternative text description for this image" } ], "showTemplateCta": false } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6896332347214503936,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans une publication r\u00e9cente de \"Flash Economics\", Patrick Artus, chef \u00e9conomiste de Natixis, se demande si le d\u00e9couplage entre PIB et CO2 est en route : https://lnkd.in/ekFjfb4J\n\nRappelons que le d\u00e9couplage est un autre nom pour la croissance verte (qui est affirm\u00e9e comme possible par notre pouvoir politique, puisque nous avons en France une loi \"pour la croissance verte\", vot\u00e9e en 2015). Cette \u00e9volution correspond \u00e0 une situation o\u00f9 le PIB croit en permanence pendant que les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre et autres nuisances environnementales d\u00e9croissent en permanence. \n\nLa conclusion d'Artus est :\n- le d\u00e9couplage s'observe depuis 1990 pour l'Europe ou les USA\n- il s'observe un peu pour la Chine et l'Inde\n- mais il ne s'observe pas pour le monde dans son ensemble.\n\nDit autrement, pour le monde dans son ensemble, les \u00e9missions de CO2 par unit\u00e9 de PIB ne diminuent quasiment pas depuis 1990. Or, c'est bien \u00e0 ce niveau global qu'il faut regarder les choses, parce qu'aucun pays n'est autosuffisant pour l'ensemble de sa consommation. C'est pour l'ensemble de l'activit\u00e9 productive qu'il faut voir si la croissance verte est en vue ou pas (voir par exemple https://lnkd.in/dDCe4YAm ).\n\nQue signifie ce r\u00e9sultat\u00a0? Tout simplement que l'on voit mal, aujourd'hui, comment il serait possible de ramener les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires \u00e0 z\u00e9ro avec un PIB en croissance... voire m\u00eame un PIB constant. 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6896026057007276032,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'environnement peut \u00e9ventuellement se voir comme un ensemble de limites physiques et biologiques incontournables sur une plan\u00e8te finie, et qui contraignent donc les degr\u00e9s de libert\u00e9 pour notre avenir, que cela nous enchante ou nous enchante un peu moins.\n\nDans le cadre de la surench\u00e8re \u00e9lectorale qui a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 de fait dans les media (m\u00eame si la campagne officielle n'est pas encore ouverte), il ne serait donc pas compl\u00e8tement idiot de regarder de fa\u00e7on un peu syst\u00e9matique si les promesses flottent au regard des limites en question. Ce serait d'autant plus logique que la question environnementale pr\u00e9occupe une fraction croissante de l'\u00e9lectorat. \n\nMais... on ne peut pas dire que nos amis journalistes passent souvent les personnages politiques \u00e0 la question sur ces sujets. M\u00eame Jadot a plus fait parler de lui r\u00e9cemment avec sa cravate qu'avec son programme ! 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semaine apr\u00e8s sa sortie, ce qui nous a \u00e9tonn\u00e9 nous-m\u00eames, mais les r\u00e9impressions arrivent) : il sera aussi l'occasion de donner la parole \u00e0 une partie des chef(fe)s de projet qui, avec le concours de centaines de contributeurs et de milliers de relecteurs, ont rendu ce travail possible.\n\nIl sera aussi l'occasion de donner la parole \u00e0 des intervenant(e)s externes, dont le secr\u00e9taire g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la CFDT, le pr\u00e9sident d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9 du MEDEF, la co-pr\u00e9sidente du mouvement Impact France, la nouvelle DG de Veolia et le (presque) nouveau patron de Sciences Po.\n\nPour assister en ligne (sur place nous avons r\u00e9serv\u00e9 l'amphi aux contributeurs du PTEF et aux invit\u00e9s, ainsi qu'\u00e0 des \u00e9tudiant(e)s de Sciences Po) c'est gratuit ; il faut juste s'inscrire pour recevoir le lien permettant de se connecter. 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"A l'occasion de la sortie chez Odile Jacob du livre r\u00e9sumant le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf), Les Echos me font l'honneur de leur interview longue du Vendredi dans le journal \"papier\" (qui est de plus en plus digital !), et encore plus longue sur le site web.\n\nLe fait m\u00eame que le site des Echos puisse mettre le lien vers cette interview en page d'accueil, et avec le titre \"Avec les bons indicateurs, l'\u00e9conomie mondiale serait en faillite\u00a0!\", montre bien que les sujets \u00e9voqu\u00e9s sont d\u00e9sormais consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme l\u00e9gitimes par la r\u00e9daction, qui n'\u00e9tait pas du tout le cas il y a 10 ans.\n\nAu demeurant, pendant l'\u00e9change qui a donn\u00e9 lieu au texte publi\u00e9, les points de vue d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s ont \u00e9videmment donn\u00e9 lieu \u00e0 discussion, mais pas du tout \u00e0 un dialogue de sourds. Le m\u00eame jour, le m\u00eame journal publie un \u00e9ditorial d'un des deux interviewers (David Barroux, R\u00e9dacteur en chef Micro), o\u00f9 l'auteur \u00e9crit : \"Croire que, sans aucune contrainte, les modes de production ou les habitudes de consommation \u00e9volueront assez rapidement et radicalement pour changer la donne est illusoire. De m\u00eame, parier uniquement sur une multitude de ruptures technologiques pour esp\u00e9rer r\u00e9soudre les probl\u00e8mes climatiques est sans doute excessivement optimiste.\" (https://lnkd.in/eMFUEbFq )\n\nBien sur, il faut se garder de crier victoire trop t\u00f4t, et penser qu'une interview est une r\u00e9volution. Une interview est... une interview :). 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Elle sont ainsi la condition de nos modes de vie, et une pierre angulaire du bon fonctionnement de notre soci\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nEn France m\u00e9tropolitaine, les usages associ\u00e9s aux infrastructures repr\u00e9sentent 50% de l\u2019empreinte carbone fran\u00e7aise (\u00e9missions territoriales et solde des \u00e9missions import\u00e9es - export\u00e9es).\n\nLes infrastructures sont \u00e9troitement li\u00e9es \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive climatique :\u00a0\n- Elles g\u00e9n\u00e8rent des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre sur une longue p\u00e9riode de temps, du fait de leur dur\u00e9e d\u2019exploitation.\n- Elles sont impact\u00e9es de fa\u00e7on croissante par le changement climatique : elles sont expos\u00e9es \u00e0 des risques physiques.\n- Les infrastructures de transport sont parmi les premi\u00e8res concern\u00e9es par les impacts physiques de la d\u00e9rive climatique.\n\u00a0\n\u2753Et demain ? Comment les infrastructures fran\u00e7aises doivent-elles se transformer afin d\u2019accompagner les \u00e9volutions des usages et contribuer \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 la r\u00e9silience du pays ?\n\n\u2753Comment les infrastructures sont-elles expos\u00e9es aux risques physiques li\u00e9s \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive climatique ?\n\n\u2753Quels travaux d\u2019adaptation des infrastructures existantes, et quelles nouvelles infrastructures d\u2019adaptation sont n\u00e9cessaires, afin de pr\u00e9venir les risques sociaux, humains et environnementaux ?\n\nNous aborderons ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments cl\u00e9s pour la transition bas-carbone et l'adaptation de la France, lors du webinaire de pr\u00e9sentation de l'\u00e9tude le f\u00e9vrier \u00e0 10h, en pr\u00e9sence de H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Chauvir\u00e9, manager chez Carbone 4, Jacques Portalier, et Joseph Hajjar, Chef du Bureau des \u00e9missions, projections et mod\u00e9lisations au sein du service Climat et Efficacit\u00e9 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A cette \u00e9poque, le changement climatique n'\u00e9tait pas vraiment un sujet (je ne pense pas en avoir entendu parler ne serait-ce qu'une fois pendant mes \u00e9tudes), et la question de l'empreinte carbone du num\u00e9rique encore moins (alors que j'ai fait une partie de mes \u00e9tudes \u00e0 Telecom ParisTech).\n\nCe n'est d\u00e9sormais plus le cas, et des chercheurs portugais ont regard\u00e9 quelle \u00e9tait l'efficacit\u00e9 compar\u00e9e, en termes d'\u00e9nergie utilis\u00e9e, de vitesse d'ex\u00e9cution, et de m\u00e9moire utilis\u00e9e, de diff\u00e9rents langages de programmation informatique : https://lnkd.in/dyqfb9Qn\n\nPour concevoir un programme qui \"fait la m\u00eame chose\", on peut donc utiliser des langages de programmation diff\u00e9rents. Un programme est une s\u00e9rie d'instructions fournies \u00e0 l'ordinateur pour partir de donn\u00e9es d'entr\u00e9e et avoir des donn\u00e9es (diff\u00e9rentes) en sortie, et ces instructions peuvent donc \u00eatre \u00e9crites en divers \"langages\".\n\nLe lien avec le climat est le suivant :\n- plus un langage demande d'\u00e9nergie, plus cela signifie qu'il va conduire \u00e0 ce que l'ordinateur effectue un grand nombre d'instructions \u00e9l\u00e9mentaires pour arriver au m\u00eame r\u00e9sultat\n- plus il est lent, plus il va demander un ordinateur puissant (donc n\u00e9cessitant plus de mati\u00e8re et d'\u00e9nergie pour \u00eatre fabriqu\u00e9) pour arriver au m\u00eame r\u00e9sultat dans les m\u00eames temps\n- plus il est gourmand en m\u00e9moire, plus il va demander un stockage capacitaire (donc n\u00e9cessitant aussi plus de mati\u00e8re et d'\u00e9nergie pour \u00eatre fabriqu\u00e9) pour arriver au m\u00eame r\u00e9sultat.\n\nLe r\u00e9sultat est que les langages que j'ai appris quand j'\u00e9tais petit (C et Pascal) sont ceux qui demandent le moins de capacit\u00e9 mat\u00e9rielle pour arriver au r\u00e9sultat dans un temps donn\u00e9. 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C'est plus souple pour l'utilisateur mais plus exigeant pour la machine.\n\nDans ce domaine comme dans beaucoup d'autres, nous avons donc augment\u00e9 la performance \u00e0 mesure que les moyens mat\u00e9riels (des ordinateurs plus puissants mais donc plus gourmands en ressources et en \u00e9nergie) augmentaient. 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accepte de recevoir une formation sur les enjeux climatiques : https://lnkd.in/ehBc6e_5\n\nEn France, nous arriverons peut-\u00eatre au m\u00eame r\u00e9sultat gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l'initiative d'un s\u00e9nateur, qui vient de d\u00e9poser un projet de loi comportant un article unique, proposant que les \u00e9lus prennent obligatoirement connaissance des r\u00e9sultats du GIEC dans le cadre de leur mandat : https://lnkd.in/ejznc62n\n\nFait \u00e0 noter, ce projet de loi ne vient pas du gouvernement, mais pas non plus des \u00e9cologistes (ou m\u00eame de la gauche). Il est par contre totalement en accord avec les propositions du Shift Project !\n\nJ'esp\u00e8re que l'int\u00e9r\u00eat sup\u00e9rieur de notre avenir primera sur le jeu partisan, ce qui n'est jamais gagn\u00e9 (j'esp\u00e8re que le s\u00e9nateur n'aura pas besoin de faire une gr\u00e8ve de la faim pour faire voter son projet de loi !)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6894744141905870849,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6894744142681845760,urn:li:activity:6894744142681845760,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 66, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6894744142681845760,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"com.linkedin.voyager.feed.render.ArticleComponent": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "urn": "urn:li:article:7183000854627849183", "swapTitleAndSubtitle": false, "largeImage": { "accessibilityTextSourceType": "USER", "attributes": [ { "useCropping": true, "sourceType": "VECTOR", "vectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 612, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800/0/1676527562746?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=Lrj_lP6oB1ufnNbWU7nLaLlPzCqdotnj4GlaUR-pTKA", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 306 }, { "width": 612, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "1280_800/0/1676527562746?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=MN8CCSAF3-klPSsDSG2U1CH2sLNNqz-GEpTSQT5-uko", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 306 }, { "width": 160, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "160/0/1676527562747?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=QXQw2iBYzLyINWhJFb_dPRUN4iWQm7aB7RJJ0O4zmwI", "expiresAt": 1677240000000, "height": 80 }, { "width": 480, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "480/0/1676527562747?e=1677240000&v=beta&t=0QHXw6jMW9GCe9KsIjl6h-tNgcH-KTwwJA0j6fxVCKU", 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"title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La Su\u00e8de pr\u00e9voit d'enfouir ses d\u00e9chets nucl\u00e9aires \"pour 100.000 ans\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6894263083766730753,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans les inconv\u00e9nients souvent mis en avant en ce qui concerne la production \u00e9lectrique \u00e0 base de fission nucl\u00e9aire, il y a la question des d\u00e9chets, tr\u00e8s fr\u00e9quemment (sinon exclusivement !) pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme un probl\u00e8me sans solution. \n\nCe terme un peu g\u00e9n\u00e9rique de \"d\u00e9chets\" englobe en pratique des objets ou faits qui peuvent \u00eatre tr\u00e8s divers. \n\nL'origine des \"d\u00e9chets\" se trouve dans les assemblages qui sont retir\u00e9s du coeur du r\u00e9acteur apr\u00e8s qu'ils y aient s\u00e9journ\u00e9 une ann\u00e9e ou plus. Les assemblages neufs contiennent l'uranium enrichi qui a servi \u00e0 la r\u00e9action en cha\u00eene, et qui est pr\u00e9sent sous forme de pastilles d'oxyde d'uranium, log\u00e9es dans des tubes en alliage de zirconium (voir photo en commentaire).\n\nDans certains pays (dont la Su\u00e8de qui fait l'objet de l'article ci-dessous) les assemblages d\u00e9charg\u00e9s sont \"juste stock\u00e9s\" apr\u00e8s un traitement purement m\u00e9canique (transport, d\u00e9coupage en morceaux, \"enrobage\" dans des conteneurs). C'est ces assemblages que l'on appelle \"d\u00e9chets\".\n\nDans d'autres pays (dont la France) ces assemblages sont \"retrait\u00e9s\". Leur contenu est tri\u00e9 : d'un c\u00f4t\u00e9 les produits de fission (les noyaux qui apparaissent lorsque le noyau d'uranium se casse en deux lors de la fission) et les actinides mineurs (des \u00e9l\u00e9ments de num\u00e9ro atomique sup\u00e9rieur ou \u00e9gal \u00e0 89 et qui apparaissent dans le coeur par absorption de neutrons par l'uranium puis d\u00e9sint\u00e9grations radioactives). Ils constitueront les d\u00e9chets dits HALV (Haute Activit\u00e9 Vie Longue) qui concentrent l'essentiel de la radioactivit\u00e9 des d\u00e9chets mais repr\u00e9sentent seulement quelques % de la masse de ce qui est retir\u00e9 du coeur.\n\nD'un autre c\u00f4t\u00e9 on va r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer le plutonium et l'uranium, qui, en France, ne sont pas consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme des d\u00e9chets : ils sont r\u00e9utilis\u00e9s dans des assemblages neufs.\n\nNos voisins du Nord, qui ne \"retraitent\" pas, donc (ce qui, du point de vue de l'\u00e9conomie de ressources, est dommage, puisque l'uranium extrait d'un coeur contient plus d'isotope 235 - environ 1% - que l'uranium naturel, et le plutonium peut aussi fournir de l'\u00e9nergie), viennent de d\u00e9cider d'enfouir les assemblages usag\u00e9s dans un site de stockage g\u00e9ologique. \n\nLa dur\u00e9e de stabilit\u00e9 qu'un stockage doit garantir effraie souvent. Pensez vous, 100.000 ans ! En fait il faut relativiser :\n- les volumes occup\u00e9s sont faibles. L'\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire \u00e9tant tr\u00e8s dense, elle met en jeu de (tr\u00e8s) petites quantit\u00e9s de mati\u00e8re (rapport\u00e9es \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie produite) et engendre donc de petites quantit\u00e9s de \"d\u00e9chets\" (toujours rapport\u00e9es \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie produite) : https://lnkd.in/dBSxJZi\n- la g\u00e9ologie est une chose globalement stable sur des \u00e9chelles de temps bien plus longues. Par exemple le gaz naturel a pu rester des dizaines de millions d'ann\u00e9es confin\u00e9 dans des formations g\u00e9ologiques. Si la g\u00e9ologie peut emp\u00eacher un gaz - qui diffuse quand m\u00eame assez facilement - de se promener partout, elle peut a fortiori le faire pour de petits objets solides !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6894263083766730753,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6894263084462997504,urn:li:activity:6894263084462997504,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 109, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6894263084462997504,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6894263084462997504,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": 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Cela valait donc la peine d'en faire 4 minutes d'antenne, pour rappeler les processus qui sont en jeu, et qui ne sont pas concern\u00e9s (ou tr\u00e8s peu) par la \"transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\".\n\nA la diff\u00e9rence des combustibles fossiles, o\u00f9 il est possible de \"monter tr\u00e8s haut\" dans l'empreinte carbone d'un individu s'il lui prend l'envie de se doter de gadgets particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9nergivores (un palace de milliers de m2 chauff\u00e9 au fioul ou climatis\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 au charbon, une fus\u00e9e pour aller faire joujou \u00e0 quelques dizaines de km de la terre, un gros Airbus transform\u00e9 en avion priv\u00e9...), les \u00e9missions par personne pour l'alimentation peuvent moins facilement monter jusqu'au ciel (sans mauvais jeu de mots), car, comme le disait Dassault, \"on ne peut pas manger 6 poulets par jour\".\n\nRiche ou pauvre, la taille de l'estomac est \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la m\u00eame, et le m\u00e9tabolisme de base d'un individu aussi. Ce qui fait beaucoup varier l'empreinte carbone de l'alimentation, c'est la part de viande et de produits animaux, qu'il est donc sage de baisser significativement si nous voulons limiter la pression sur l'environnement.\n\nLa \"mauvaise nouvelle\" est donc que les \u00e9missions dans ce secteur sont plus d\u00e9pendantes de la taille de la population que celles li\u00e9es aux combustibles fossiles. La \"moins mauvaise\", cependant, est que le m\u00e9thane, un des deux gaz \u00e0 effet de serre qui dominent dans le secteur agricole (l'autre est le protoxyde d'azote), est le seul qui s'\u00e9pure dans l'atmosph\u00e8re par un processus chimique. 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"FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Gaz, \u00e9lectricit\u00e9, t\u00e9l\u00e9coms\u2026 Repensons les biens communs\u00a0!" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6893582617011118080,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il nous faut un plan (dans les infrastructures essentielles) : c'est en gros le message de cette chronique d'Eric Le Boucher parue Vendredi dernier dans Les Echos. \n\nL'auteur fut pendant longtemps un grand d\u00e9fenseur d'une version tr\u00e8s \"lib\u00e9rale\" de l'\u00e9conomie. Il est donc d'autant plus int\u00e9ressant de noter que dans ce texte il conclut que cela ne fonctionne pas pour certains services essentiels.\n\nOn pourrait se dire que c'est \u00e9vident que cela ne marche pas et qu'il faut proc\u00e9der autrement. Mais cette \u00e9vidence n'est toujours pas parvenue aux oreilles de la DG Concurrence \u00e0 la Commission qui, pour les \u00e9chos (sans mauvais jeu de mots) que j'en ai, continue \u00e0 penser que c'est la bonne direction \u00e0 prendre. \n\nIl y a en effet une partie des r\u00e9gulateurs de l'\u00e9conomie pour lesquels un syst\u00e8me qui ne fonctionne pas n'est pas une preuve que la th\u00e9orie n'est pas fond\u00e9e, mais juste une preuve du fait qu'elle est mal appliqu\u00e9e. Et puis, comme toujours \u00e0 la Commission, les int\u00e9r\u00eats nationaux (dont ceux des pays antinucl\u00e9aires) sont ravis que le cadre \"casse\" (avec la complicit\u00e9 active des opposants fran\u00e7ais au nucl\u00e9aire) un syst\u00e8me nucl\u00e9aire int\u00e9gr\u00e9 fran\u00e7ais qui \u00e9tait en pratique sup\u00e9rieur aux autres.\n\nNous avons le choix : attendre je ne sais quel miracle qui remettra le syst\u00e8me d'aplomb \u00e0 l'avenir, en imaginant que l'on aura toujours un EDF sectoriel \u00e0 qui faire les poches en cas d'incendie (ce qui est \u00e9videmment un leurre). Ou bien, comme le sugg\u00e8re opportun\u00e9ment Eric Le Boucher, repartir des objectifs et repenser le syst\u00e8me en cons\u00e9quence.\n\nLa deuxi\u00e8me option suppose de sortir de notre adoration pour le \"Dieu March\u00e9\" (voir \u00e0 ce propos https://lnkd.in/d-vx4tP ) et de r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 la mani\u00e8re de renationaliser peu ou prou la colonne vert\u00e9brale du syst\u00e8me. D\u00e9p\u00eachons nous de le faire pendant que nous en avons encore la possibilit\u00e9." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6893582617011118080,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6893582617564770304,urn:li:activity:6893582617564770304,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 50, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6893582617564770304,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6893582617564770304,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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Le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne des BD qui s\u2019inspirent de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 a le vent en poupe." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8710064461688142989)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8710064461688142989)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "francetvinfo.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \"Le Monde sans fin\" : quand les auteurs de BD planchent sur l'actu by francetvinfo.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/emploi/metiers/art-culture-edition/culture-quand-les-auteurs-de-bd-planchent-sur-l-actu_4926141.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\"Le Monde sans fin\" : quand les auteurs de BD planchent sur l'actu" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6892405501510901760,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il n'\u00e9tait que temps (et ce n'\u00e9tait que justice) : pour une fois c'est Christophe Blain qui est \u00e0 l'honneur dans un sujet m\u00e9diatique sur Le Monde sans Fin, dans ce reportage de France Info sur la BD \"d'actualit\u00e9\".\n\nLe lecteur interrog\u00e9 dit exactement ce que nous avions en t\u00eate en faisant cet ouvrage (d\u00e9sormais de nouveau disponible !) : que c'est \"plus p\u00e9dagogique\" qu'un essai ordinaire, et du reste le nombre d'exemplaires d\u00e9j\u00e0 mis en circulation ne lui donne pas tort, puisqu'un \"essai qui marche tr\u00e8s bien\" avec \"juste du texte\" diffuse plut\u00f4t \u00e0 50.000 exemplaires.\n\nCet ouvrage reste tr\u00e8s compl\u00e9mentaire du \"plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\" qui vient de sortir chez Odile Jacob (https://lnkd.in/ekHwBzqi ). 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gouvernement d'en profiter pour faire repartir l'activit\u00e9 du pays sur des bases beaucoup plus \"d\u00e9carbonantes\", parce que le jeu de mesures op\u00e9rationnelles permettant de le faire n'existait pas.\n\nNous nous sommes alors lanc\u00e9s dans une aventure qui est celle de beaucoup d'entrepreneurs : concevoir le produit que nous aurions aim\u00e9 trouver sur \u00e9tag\u00e8res \u00e0 ce moment l\u00e0, \u00e0 savoir un plan op\u00e9rationnel complet permettant de cadrer et enclencher une d\u00e9carbonation syst\u00e9mique et coh\u00e9rente de notre \u00e9conomie. \n\nEt, plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, l'enjeu \u00e9tait de proposer au/\u00e0 la prochain(e) locataire de l'Elys\u00e9e les mesures \u00e0 prendre pour que, \u00e0 la fin de son mandat, les \u00e9missions du pays (et son empreinte carbone) aient baiss\u00e9 d'environ 25%, c'est-\u00e0-dire en ligne avec le rythme de baisse qui est \"physiquement\" demand\u00e9 par l'accord de Paris.\n\nApr\u00e8s 2 ans de travail ayant mobilis\u00e9 des centaines de personnes, cela prend forme. Plus exactement cela prend la forme d'un ouvrage publi\u00e9 chez Odile Jacob (https://lnkd.in/ekHwBzqi ), et d'un site web intitul\u00e9 \"il nous faut un plan\" (https://lnkd.in/esiqHkbf ) reprenant toutes les propositions mais aussi des \u00e9l\u00e9ments additionnels, comme des interviews vid\u00e9o des chefs de projet ou des infographies que nous esp\u00e9rons didactiques.\n\nLes Echos ont accept\u00e9 de reprendre, dans la rubrique id\u00e9es, les \"bonnes feuilles\" de notre livre pour nous aider \u00e0 mettre nos propositions en avant : https://lnkd.in/eeAuS8hn Cette reprise s'\u00e9talera sur plusieurs jours, avec un th\u00e8me par jour.\n\nNos propositions ne sont probablement pas parfaites, mais repr\u00e9sentent tout aussi probablement le travail le plus exhaustif r\u00e9alis\u00e9 \u00e0 ce jour dans notre pays (et probablement ailleurs, puisque nous avons d\u00e9j\u00e0 des demandes de pays \u00e9trangers pour reproduire la m\u00e9thode) sur les mesures op\u00e9rationnelles permettant la d\u00e9carbonation du pays tout en pr\u00e9servant l'emploi. Nous souhaitons donc que tous les d\u00e9cideurs \u00e9conomiques, syndicaux et et politiques en prennent connaissance, et nous serons heureux de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 leurs questions.\n\nJe rappelle qu'un \u00e9v\u00e9nement de pr\u00e9sentation en ligne aura lieu le 7 f\u00e9vrier prochain ; inscriptions et renseignements sur https://lnkd.in/e8m9JS_S\n\nBonne lecture !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6891997889342582784,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608,urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 117, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608", "threadId": "activity:6891997890286276608", "allowedCommentersScope": "ALL", "totalSocialActivityCounts": { "socialDetailEntityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608", "urn": "urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608", "numComments": 247, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608", "reactionTypeCounts": [ { "count": 3612, "reactionType": "LIKE" }, { "count": 588, "reactionType": "PRAISE" }, { "count": 245, "reactionType": "MAYBE" }, { "count": 95, "reactionType": "APPRECIATION" }, { "count": 79, "reactionType": "INTEREST" }, { "count": 38, "reactionType": "EMPATHY" } ], "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608", "numLikes": 4657, "liked": false }, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6891997890286276608", "commentingDisabled": false, "likes": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 4657, "links": [] }, "elements": [] } } }, { "actor": { "urn": "urn:li:member:101316862", "image": { "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "attributes": [ { "sourceType": "PROFILE_PICTURE", "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean-Marc", "lastName": "Jancovici", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAYJ-P4B8XcfHOiVTdmiAyYGfvxBRs3J_Ug", "occupation": "Founding Partner, Carbone 4 - 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Reprenons : d\u00e9but 2020, la demande de p\u00e9trole plonge. Du coup les prix aussi. Cons\u00e9quence, les investissements dans l'exploration-production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re (et gazi\u00e8re, c'est la m\u00eame) sont divis\u00e9s par 2. Cons\u00e9quence un peu plus tard : la production d'or noir n'arrive pas \u00e0 suivre le regain de la demande, et les prix augmentent. \n\nPour autant, un baril \u00e0 85 dollars - c'est haut mais loin du maximum \u00e0 130 en moyenne sur 2011 - ne suffit pas \u00e0 expliquer que le prix \u00e0 la pompe atteigne des records. Deux autres \u00e9l\u00e9ments ont contribu\u00e9 :\n\n- l'euro a eu tendance \u00e0 s'affaiblir face au dollar. Cela rench\u00e9rit les importations de p\u00e9trole (qui s'ach\u00e8te en dollars) \u00e0 cout du baril constant,\n\n- la fiscalit\u00e9 sp\u00e9cifique sur les carburants a augment\u00e9, en particulier celle sur le gazole qui a cru de 50% environ de 2014 \u00e0 2018, dans le cadre d'un rattrapage essence-gazole.\n\nNotons qu'une partie des taxes sp\u00e9cifiques sur les carburants finance de mani\u00e8re affect\u00e9e le d\u00e9veloppement des ENR \u00e9lectriques, qui ne contribuent pourtant pas directement \u00e0 diminuer la d\u00e9pendance aux carburants (il eut \u00e9t\u00e9 plus pertinent, peut-\u00eatre, de financer le d\u00e9veloppement du v\u00e9lo ou des pompes \u00e0 chaleur - qui n'\u00e9vitent pas de carburant mais \u00e9vitent du fioul - avec le m\u00eame argent...).\n\nSi les carburants sont trop chers \u00e0 cause du prix du p\u00e9trole, \u00e0 bref d\u00e9lai nous ne pouvons rien faire d'autre que subir. 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l'\u00e9nergie... o\u00f9 il n'est pas question de nucl\u00e9aire ni d'\u00e9olien. Il y est question uniquement de p\u00e9trole, dont le quotidien rappelle, \u00e0 raison, qu'il reste la premi\u00e8re source de \"croquettes pour machines\" (ou plut\u00f4t de bibine pour machines !) sur la plan\u00e8te Terre.\n\nCet article cite explicitement le \"rapport de l'AIE\" (en fait le World Energy Outlook) de 2008 qui indiquait que le pic de production du p\u00e9trole conventionnel a \u00e9t\u00e9 franchi en 2008, ceci expliquant peut-\u00eatre cela, \u00e0 savoir que certains pays de l'OPEP n'arrivent plus, d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, \u00e0 produire au niveau de leur quota, et que le prix de l'or noir va d\u00e9sormais se mettre \u00e0 \"faire n'importe quoi\" de plus en plus souvent.\n\nCet article rappelle aussi que, outre qu'il repr\u00e9sente l'\u00e9nergie la plus commode \u00e0 utiliser (dense par unit\u00e9 de volume et liquide), le p\u00e9trole est aussi une mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re que l'on va retrouver dans une quantit\u00e9 consid\u00e9rable d'objets du quotidien, du plastique des ustensiles de cuisine \u00e0 celui des ch\u00e2ssis de fen\u00eatre, des gaines de c\u00e2bles \u00e9lectriques aux chaussures de sport et aux brosses \u00e0 dent, des capots de tondeuse aux cosm\u00e9tiques et au bitume des routes, des pales d'\u00e9oliennes aux montures de lunettes et aux bougies pour souper en amoureux.... \n\nPar quoi le remplacer ? Par de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans la mobilit\u00e9, certes, mais avec la quantit\u00e9 de moteurs \u00e0 explosion que nous avons en circulation (1 milliard de voitures particuli\u00e8res d'une tonne ou plus sont en circulation dans le monde, par exemple, sans parler des camions, bateaux, avions...) nous allons buter sur un probl\u00e8me d'ordre de grandeur pour d\u00e9ployer des batteries, des bornes de recharge et des moyens de production \u00e9lectrique bas carbone dans les d\u00e9lais. \n\nPar de la chimie \u00e0 partir de biomasse pour les plastiques, certes, mais cette biomasse va entrer en comp\u00e9tition avec celle requise pour les mat\u00e9riaux de structure devant remplacer acier et ciment (eux aussi produits avec des combustibles fossiles !), avec la production de nourriture (devenant moins facile avec moins de combustibles fossiles qui produisent engrais, m\u00e9canisation, et phytosanitaires), et avec la biodiversit\u00e9 (qui suppose de ne rien cultiver du tout). \n\nL'article ne le dit pas explicitement, mais le sugg\u00e8re n\u00e9anmoins, et d'autant plus qu'il parle de pouvoir d'achat : une partie sera remplac\u00e9e par... rien. Cela s'appellera, selon la mani\u00e8re dont nous le g\u00e8rerons, de la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 ou de la pauvret\u00e9." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6891287427135135748,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6891287427730739201,urn:li:activity:6891287427730739201,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 59, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6891287427730739201,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6891287427730739201,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:6955880163073397817)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "bloomberg.com \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Net-Zero Insurers Uncover New Climate Adversary in Antitrust Law by bloomberg.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-19/net-zero-insurance-coal-exit-plans-impeded-by-antitrust-laws" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Net-Zero Insurers Uncover\u00a0New Climate Adversary in\u00a0Antitrust Law" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6890966365151260672,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une partie significative des investisseurs - les fameux qui placent leur argent via les march\u00e9s financiers - sont des assureurs. Ces entreprises ont deux activit\u00e9s :\n- elles couvrent les assur\u00e9s contre les risques \"d'accidents de la vie\" (ce qui s'appelle en fran\u00e7ais l'IARD : Incendies Accidents Risques Divers). C'est dans cette cat\u00e9gorie que l'on va trouver les assurances habitation, automobile, responsabilit\u00e9 civile des individus et des entreprises, risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 la pratique d'un sport, l'assurance d\u00e9c\u00e8s, etc.\n- elles g\u00e8rent l'\u00e9pargne des assur\u00e9s (on utilise le m\u00eame terme).\n\nL'argent plac\u00e9 par ces entreprises d'assurance correspond aux primes per\u00e7ues dans le premier cas (argent qui sera pour partie revers\u00e9 aux personnes ayant eu un sinistre), et \u00e0 l'\u00e9pargne dans le second (par exemple quand vous souscrivez une assurance vie, en pratique c'est la constitution d'une \u00e9pargne et l'assureur g\u00e8re cette derni\u00e8re pour vous ; vous devenez donc un rouage des \"march\u00e9s financiers\" !).\n\nDans les mesures qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 imagin\u00e9es par le monde financier pour d\u00e9courager les activit\u00e9s qui nuisent par trop au climat, il y a la question du d\u00e9sinvestissement (ne plus utiliser les sommes investies pour acheter des actions ou obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui ont des activit\u00e9s par trop \"nuisibles\"). Cette action est parfois mise en avant par les assureurs pour justifier de la compatibilit\u00e9 de leurs placements avec la question climatique. \n\nMais une deuxi\u00e8me action qui est \u00e0 la main des m\u00eames entit\u00e9s est de refuser d'assurer des activit\u00e9s qui leurs semblent cr\u00e9er trop de risques pour la collectivit\u00e9. L'assureur a en effet cette possibilit\u00e9 - m\u00eame si elle est encadr\u00e9e par la loi - de refuser d'assurer : on le voit par exemple pour l'assurance auto des tr\u00e8s mauvais conducteurs. \n\nDe m\u00eame, il est possible de ne pas assurer en responsabilit\u00e9 civile une entreprise qui nuit par trop au climat, auquel cas cette entreprise pourra se retrouver en situation de ne plus pouvoir exercer. C'est donc potentiellement une arme puissante. Mais cette action n'est efficace que si les assureurs se mettent d'accord entre eux pour cela. Or, aux USA au moins, il semblerait que cela contrevienne aux lois antitrust de cr\u00e9er une alliance qui aille en ce sens. C'est de l'entente sur le dos de la libre concurrence ! \n\nCe ne serait malheureusement pas le seul cas de figure o\u00f9 le dispositif l\u00e9gal en vigueur emp\u00eache de lutter efficacement contre le changement climatique. De nombreuses dispositions de protection des investissements ou de la libert\u00e9 de commercer ou de s'\u00e9tablir prot\u00e8gent de fait des activit\u00e9s qui ne sont pas compatibles avec la baisse rapide des pressions environnementales. \n\nAu fond ce n'est pas tr\u00e8s \u00e9tonnant : l'\u00e9conomie n'etant qu'un vaste syst\u00e8me physique de transformation des ressources naturelles avec l'aide d'\u00e9nergie (laquelle pose probl\u00e8me), tout cadre l\u00e9gal qui \"favorise l'\u00e9conomie\" rend difficile de limiter dans le m\u00eame temps les nuisances li\u00e9es \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6890966365151260672,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6890966365772017664,urn:li:activity:6890966365772017664,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 26, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, 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publie son nouveau rapport sur la d\u00e9carbonation de l'industrie" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6890323257459838976,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans un monde qui doit devenir neutre en carbone, aurons nous encore de l'acier, dont la production \u00e9met actuellement 2 tonnes de CO2 par tonne de m\u00e9tal (la production d'acier utilise environ 15% du charbon mondial) ?\n\nAurons nous encore du ciment, dont la production \u00e9met actuellement environ 0,7 tonne de CO2 par tonne de ciment ? Aurons nous du plastique (de 1 \u00e0 2 tonnes de CO2 par tonne de plastique en ordre de grandeur) ? Des engrais ? (ils sont actuellement faits \u00e0 partir d'hydrog\u00e8ne lui-m\u00eame obtenu \u00e0 partir de gaz ou d'autres combustibles fossiles, avec 10 tonnes de CO2 par tonne d'hydrog\u00e8ne au minimum). Aurons nous encore des robots m\u00e9nagers, des chaussettes, des pots de yaourt ?\n\nC'est \u00e0 ces questions que r\u00e9pond le rapport sur l'industrie que The Shift Project vient de publier dans le cadre de son \"plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\". Si on la fait courte mais bonne, et sans spoiler les 91 pages du rapport, la r\u00e9ponse est que nous pouvons faire beaucoup avec la technique, mais il faudra aussi user de la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9, dit autrement une baisse de la consommation. Mais si nous consid\u00e9rons que nous sommes devenus des \"ob\u00e8ses mat\u00e9riels\" ce n'est peut-\u00eatre pas un drame si on s'organise bien.\n\nEn particulier sur le plan de l'emploi on peut imaginer compenser les pertes dans la production initiale par des gains dans la r\u00e9paration, le r\u00e9emploi, et le recyclage, et un peu dans la relocalisation de certaines productions, ce qui conjugue un int\u00e9r\u00eat pour l'emploi avec un int\u00e9r\u00eat sur les \u00e9missions." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6890323257459838976,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6890323258114138112,urn:li:activity:6890323258114138112,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 56, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6889961018055811073,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L\u2019Autorit\u00e9 de r\u00e9gulation des communications \u00e9lectroniques, des postes et de la distribution de la presse (ARCEP) et l'Ademe viennent de publier une note sur l'impact environnemental du num\u00e9rique. L'essentiel des \u00e9l\u00e9ments contenus dans cette note n'est pas in\u00e9dit mais il est bon de les rappeler.\n\nSur le plan des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, la note donne une valeur de 253 kg CO2 eq. par an et par Fran\u00e7ais pour l'empreinte carbone du num\u00e9rique, soit 2,5% de l'empreinte du pays. \n\nLa consommation \u00e9lectrique annuelle induite par les biens et services num\u00e9riques en France est de 48,7 TWh, soit l\u2019\u00e9quivalent d\u2019environ 10 % de la consommation \u00e9lectrique annuelle fran\u00e7aise (car toute cette consommation n'a pas lieu en France).\n\nL\u2019empreinte carbone du num\u00e9rique est majoritairement li\u00e9e aux terminaux (79 % de l\u2019empreinte), suivis par les centres de donn\u00e9es (plus de 16 %) puis les r\u00e9seaux (autour de 5 %). La phase de fabrication des \u00e9quipements (terminaux, serveurs, box,...) repr\u00e9sente 78 % du total alors que la phase d\u2019utilisation repr\u00e9sente 21 % (mais dans un pays \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 plus carbon\u00e9e ces proportions seraient diff\u00e9rentes).\n\nMais cette note pr\u00e9sente aussi l'impact sur d'autres indicateurs. Les terminaux mobilisent par exemple plus de 90% des m\u00e9taux et min\u00e9raux utilis\u00e9s pour fabriquer et faire fonctionner le syst\u00e8me num\u00e9rique (et 62,5 millions de tonnes de ressources sont utilis\u00e9es par an pour produire et utiliser les \u00e9quipements num\u00e9riques), et au sein de cet ensemble ce sont les \u00e9crans (les t\u00e9l\u00e9s) qui repr\u00e9sentent la plus grande part.\n\nL'id\u00e9al, ce serait que ce travail soit une premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape pour conditionner l'autorisation d'exercer des op\u00e9rateurs de t\u00e9l\u00e9coms \u00e0 une baisse de leur empreinte carbone tous les ans. Si nous \u00e9tions coh\u00e9rents, c'est ce que nous souhaiterions tou(te)s !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6889961018055811073,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6889961018739494912,urn:li:activity:6889961018739494912,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 20, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6889961018739494912,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6889961018739494912,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Depuis que le climat est devenu un sujet pour les acteurs financiers, une des mani\u00e8res qu'ils ont de r\u00e9pondre au probl\u00e8me est de d\u00e9sinvestir des secteurs vus comme les plus probl\u00e9matiques, au premier rang desquels le charbon.\n\nAdmettons qu'un gestionnaire d'actif ou un investisseur d\u00e9tienne des actions ou des obligations d'une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui est pr\u00e9sente dans le secteur charbonnier (exploitant de mines, exploitant de centrales \u00e9lectriques, voire constructeur de ces centrales ou d'engins utilis\u00e9s dans les mines...). \n\nLa fa\u00e7on de r\u00e9soudre le probl\u00e8me actuellement est de vendre ces actions ou obligations \u00e0 des tiers. Les titres ne sont alors plus pris en compte dans l'empreinte carbone de l'acteur financier... qui peut consid\u00e9rer avoir contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 la r\u00e9solution du probl\u00e8me.\n\nSauf qu'il n'en est rien : la \"vraie\" r\u00e9solution du probl\u00e8me est la disparition \"physique\" de la mine ou de la centrale en activit\u00e9, et la vente \u00e0 un tiers ne garantit pas du tout cela. Pire : comme l'explique cet article, la cession de ces actifs cr\u00e9e des opportunit\u00e9s pour des investisseurs priv\u00e9s, qui prennent le relais des structures cot\u00e9es qui sont mises sous pression parce qu'elles doivent publier des informations et donc donner des gages.\n\nLa seule mani\u00e8re que es acteurs financiers pourraient avoir de r\u00e9soudre le probl\u00e8me par eux-m\u00eames serait de garder la propri\u00e9t\u00e9 de la mine ou de la centrale... et de cr\u00e9er des coalitions majoritaires en AG pour voter la cessation de l'activit\u00e9 charbonni\u00e8re, en encaissant la moins value correspondante au passage, ce qu'ils ne feront jamais, parce que c'est contraire \u00e0 leur devoir fiduciaire, qui les oblige \u00e0 mettre la pr\u00e9servation des int\u00e9r\u00eats financiers de leur mandants avant toute autre consid\u00e9ration.\n\nLa taxonomie europ\u00e9enne laissera ce probl\u00e8me entier. En fait, il n'y a que la puissance publique qui puisse r\u00e9soudre le probl\u00e8me, en interdisant progressivement l'activit\u00e9 charbonni\u00e8re. Les investisseurs ne le pourront pas. \n\nIls peuvent par contre avoir une approche \"risque individuel\", c'est \u00e0 dire sortir le charbon de leurs portefeuilles pour ne pas encaisser de moins values quand et si la puissance publique d\u00e9cide(ra) de p\u00e9naliser cette activit\u00e9 (ou les \u00e9pargnants, au d\u00e9triment du rendement, mais c'est peu probable que ce soit massif), ou si elle se \"p\u00e9nalise toute seule\" pour des raisons physiques (manque de ressources, impossibilit\u00e9 physique d'op\u00e9rer pour des raisons diverses). Cela correspond \u00e0 une vision \"secteur\", qui a sa pertinence, mais pas \u00e0 une vision soci\u00e9tale." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6889499848899403776,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6889499849637584896,urn:li:activity:6889499849637584896,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 68, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6889499849637584896,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6889499849637584896,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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Pourquoi est-ce un fait int\u00e9ressant ? Parce que ce tassement du PIB est du, selon cet article des Echos, \u00e0 une impossibilit\u00e9 de produire assez \u00e0 cause de la p\u00e9nurie de composants et mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res.\n\nUn PIB qui se tasse de 0,1%, ce n'est pas une p\u00e9nurie massive. Le secteur automobile fran\u00e7ais s'en serait surement content\u00e9, lui qui a vu ses ventes chuter de 25% par rapport \u00e0 2019 pour des raisons identiques.\n\nEn Allemagne, la nouvelle coalition a clairement un programme de \"croissance verte\". Sur le plan \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, le d\u00e9ploiement de modes physiquement peu concentr\u00e9s (solaire et \u00e9olien) et tr\u00e8s gourmands en ressources physiques n'est paradoxalement facile \u00e0 faire que dans un univers en croissance. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9036375185403148342)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theshiftproject.org \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Le Shift Project publie son livre issu des travaux du PTEF : Rdv le 07/02 ! by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/invitation-publication-livre-ptef-7-fevrier-18h" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Shift Project publie son livre issu des travaux du PTEF : Rdv le 07/02 !" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6889129996766511104,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le 7 f\u00e9vrier prochain, \u00e0 partir de 18h, The Shift Project organise un \u00e9v\u00e9nement pour la parution, chez Odile Jacob, d'un livre reprenant les propositions du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/exB5gsqS ).\n\nCet \u00e9v\u00e9nement sera l'occasion de parcourir - ou d\u00e9couvrir ! - les conclusions de nos travaux initi\u00e9s il y a presque 2 ans maintenant, et qui ont conduit \u00e0 formuler des propositions dans 15 secteurs d'activit\u00e9, pour rendre notre avenir \u00e9conomie compatible avec la baisse au bon rythme des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre plan\u00e9taires.\n\nNous aurons le plaisir d'accueillir \u00e0 cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement le nouveau directeur de Sciences Po, le secr\u00e9taire g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la CFDT, le pr\u00e9sident d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9 du MEDEF, mais aussi - et surtout ! - de nombreux chef(fe)s de projet qui ont pilot\u00e9 les travaux conduisant aux propositions.\n\nCe travail - le \"plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\" - est notre fa\u00e7on \u00e0 nous de faire de la politique sans se pr\u00e9senter \u00e0 une \u00e9lection. Ce n'est pas un hasard que ce livre sorte au d\u00e9but de la campagne \u00e9lectorale, mais notre premier public est l'\u00e9lectorat plus que les candidat(e)s, pour une raison tr\u00e8s simple : le plus souvent, les candidat(e)s se calent sur les souhaits de leurs \u00e9lecteurs potentiels avant de se caler sur les \"constats scientifiques\". \n\nSi nous voulons convaincre une fraction significative de la classe politique du bien fond\u00e9 de notre approche, cela passe n\u00e9cessairement par le fait d'en convaincre une bonne fraction de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile, \u00e0 commencer par les organismes qui souhaitent les repr\u00e9senter ou les inspirer (syndicats de salari\u00e9s et patronaux ; monde acad\u00e9mique).\n\nCet \u00e9v\u00e9nement s'inscrit pleinement dans ce cadre puisque nous n'aurons pas d'intervenant issu du monde politique. Rappelons que The Shift Project est a-partisan et n'a pas vocation \u00e0 soutenir un(e) candidat(e) particulier(e). \n\nL'inscription pour assister \u00e0 la retransmission en ligne est gratuite ; tous les d\u00e9tails dans le lien ci-dessous !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6889129996766511104,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6889129997471158272,urn:li:activity:6889129997471158272,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 19, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6889129997471158272,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6889129997471158272,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6888538708165881856,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'agriculture au sens large, c'est un tiers des \u00e9missions mondiales de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Dans cet ensemble, on va trouver les \u00e9missions directes des pratiques agricoles (m\u00e9thane des ruminants et des rizi\u00e8res, protoxyde d'azote \u00e9mis par les engrais apr\u00e8s \u00e9pandage dans les champs), les \u00e9missions des machines agricoles, et la d\u00e9forestation amont. Pour obtenir les \u00e9missions associ\u00e9es \u00e0 notre alimentation, il faut y rajouter les \u00e9missions de l'agroalimentaire (chaleur, \u00e9lectricit\u00e9, et production d'emballages) et des transports associ\u00e9s (un camion sur trois en France transporte quelque chose qui se mange). \n\nIl \u00e9tait donc normal que la m\u00e9thode Carbon Impact Analytics (qui est destin\u00e9e \u00e0 \u00e9valuer le \"risque de transition\" d'entreprises face \u00e0 la contrainte climatique) d\u00e9veloppe un module sectoriel portant sur les industries du secteur \"nourriture et boissons\".\n\nLe premier rapport sur ce secteur vient d'\u00eatre publi\u00e9. Il d\u00e9crit la m\u00e9thode utilis\u00e9e pour \u00e9valuer les entreprises, les limites bien sur (par exemple pour le moment nous ne diff\u00e9rencions pas encore les qualit\u00e9s nutritionnelles dans les notes accord\u00e9es, alors qu'il serait \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence pertinent de le faire), et les r\u00e9sultats obtenus.\n\nUn des enseignements importants est que ce secteur \u00e9tant peu sur l'\u00e9cran radar pour le sujet climat (par contre il l'est pour la d\u00e9forestation et des sujets biodiversit\u00e9), il reporte peu sur ses \u00e9missions (et encore moins sur celles de sa chaine de valeur, le fameux \"scope 3\"). Mais il p\u00e8se plus lourd en \u00e9missions que le secteur \u00e9lectrique : il serait temps de le scruter d'un peu plus pr\u00e8s !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6888538708165881856,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6888538708820209664,urn:li:activity:6888538708820209664,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 48, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6888538708820209664,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6888538708820209664,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1595867641823?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=Y7zzCO_FQEe-K24i39TSG_laCAv0G4GKj0o83xyRCn4", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1595867641823?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=6Vauui1L2DJP-emDsWRRLNX3jwsOAGXEbCkTxf0bZ0U", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D03AQFRjTspBNP7mw/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "oO7Kb69vTv+SRu1tV+R50Q==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Peut-on, dans un march\u00e9 concurrentiel, demander \u00e0 un des \"concurrents\" de mettre la main \u00e0 la poche pour renflouer les autres ?\n\nPour soutenir le tarif de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour les consommateurs finaux (une d\u00e9cision politique), l'Etat peut-il demander \u00e0 un des \"concurrents\" de porter l'effort qui incombe normalement aux finances publiques ?\n\nA l'\u00e9vidence la r\u00e9ponse est deux fois oui. Cela n'est pas du gout des administrateurs salari\u00e9s d'EDF (on les comprend) qui ont \u00e9crit que \"Nous refusons que ce soit le Groupe EDF qui assume, seul, encore et toujours, les risques de march\u00e9 alors que c'est aussi lui seul qui assume tous les risques industriels\".\n\nDe fait, ce qui vient de se passer est une remarquable confusion des genres. Imagine-t-on l'Etat demander \u00e0 Renault de perdre 8 milliards pour vendre \u00e0 perte des voitures \u00e0 ses concurrents pour que les voitures coutent moins cher au consommateur final ?\n\nSi au moins l'Etat en avait profit\u00e9 pour expliquer que le syst\u00e8me actuel dysfonctionne (et va le faire de plus en plus), et qu'il est urgent de revenir \u00e0 un monopole ou un oligipole encadr\u00e9, on y aurait au moins gagn\u00e9 quelque chose. Mais il ne semble pas que ce soit le cas : les m\u00eames causes produiront les m\u00eames effets, et attendez vous donc \u00e0 d'autres \u00e9pisodes d'inflation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique tant que le syst\u00e8me actuel restera en place... \n\nPetite observation en passant : c'est \u00e0 Agn\u00e8s Pannier-Runacher qu'a \u00e9chu la d\u00e9sagr\u00e9able t\u00e2che d'\u00e9voquer sur ce r\u00e9seau social la ponction op\u00e9r\u00e9e par l'Etat sur les comptes d'EDF en la pr\u00e9sentant comme un succ\u00e8s (https://lnkd.in/e6VSHiDt ). Les fils linkedin d'Emmanuel Macron, Jean Castex, Bruno Le Maire et Barbara Pompili (\u00e0 savoir ceux qui ont vraiment pris la d\u00e9cision, et ceux qui ont la tutelle sur le secteur \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique/\u00e9conomique) sont rest\u00e9s muets sur le sujet. 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"textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "investir.lesechos.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: EDF plonge en Bourse apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce de mesures gouvernementales en vue de limiter les hausses de prix by investir.lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://investir.lesechos.fr/actions/actualites/edf-plonge-de-25-en-bourse-apres-l-annonce-de-mesures-gouvernementales-en-vue-de-limiter-les-hausses-de-prix-1997805.php" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "EDF plonge en Bourse apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce de mesures gouvernementales en vue de limiter les hausses de prix" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6887778872478228480,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\nS'il s'agissait de d\u00e9truire un syst\u00e8me qui fonctionnait bien, la \"concurrence\" dans le march\u00e9 de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 vient de remporter une nouvelle victoire. Rappelons que les \"concurrents\" d'EDF sont en fait plut\u00f4t des \"d\u00e9pendants\" que des concurrents. La concurrence, c'est la facult\u00e9 de s'\u00e9tablir \u00e0 ses risques et p\u00e9rils. Un nouveau constructeur auto a le droit de se cr\u00e9er pour vendre des voitures comme concurrent des vendeurs existants. Et en pareil cas, si un vendeur historique fait d\u00e9faut, ca ne g\u00eane pas le nouvel entrant, au contraire.\n\nDans le domaine de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, le syst\u00e8me est plut\u00f4t celui d'une extorsion encadr\u00e9e. EDF est oblig\u00e9 de vendre \u00e0 perte (c'est l'ARENH) une partie de sa production \u00e0 des entit\u00e9s tierces qui sont donc en situation de d\u00e9pendance et non de concurrence : si les centrales d'EDF disparaissent, les \"concurrents\" font de m\u00eame !\n\nLes \"concurrents\" n'ont pas construit de moyens de production. Pour l'essentiel ce sont des structures avec des fonds propres tr\u00e8s faibles, bien incapables de porter les investissements n\u00e9cessaires pour construire des unit\u00e9s de puissance. Ce sont en fait de purs distributeurs, vendant l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 produite par d'autres (en France essentiellement EDF). \n\nArrive une situation ou les prix de gros s'envolent (parce que les prix de gros sont cal\u00e9s sur le moyen le plus cher du moment ; c'est un fait bien connu dans le domaine de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, m\u00eame si le r\u00e9gulateur europ\u00e9en et le pouvoir politique fran\u00e7ais ne l'avaient pas compris). Les fournisseurs \"d\u00e9pendants\" ont d\u00e9sormais plus de clients \u00e0 fournir que d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 achet\u00e9e \u00e0 des prix brad\u00e9s \u00e0 EDF. Ils sont coinc\u00e9s. \n\nLe gouvernement a choisi de sauver les concurrents (il n'\u00e9tait pas oblig\u00e9) et de \"sauver le consommateur\" avant l'\u00e9lection (ben voyons). Mais il n'y a pas de repas gratuit : le contribuable devra passer \u00e0 la caisse apr\u00e8s l'\u00e9lection. \n\nRappelons que ce probl\u00e8me n'a rien \u00e0 voir avec le nucl\u00e9aire. Il est li\u00e9 \u00e0 l'existence d'une concurrence \u00e0 l'aval dans l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et au fait que la production \u00e9lectrique repose sur des moyens dont soit la quantit\u00e9 (\u00e9olien) soit le prix (gaz) est peu pr\u00e9visible. Tant qu'une partie de la production \u00e9lectrique sera faite au gaz (dont le prix sera volatil) et que le syst\u00e8me sera \"concurrentiel\" il y aura des embard\u00e9es sur les prix. Sacrifier EDF n'y changera rien. Ce qu'il faut, c'est revenir au syst\u00e8me r\u00e9gul\u00e9 d'avant." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6887778872478228480,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6887778873388408833,urn:li:activity:6887778873388408833,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 362, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6887778873388408833,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6887778873388408833,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6887678775899811841,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La finance \"verte\" est cens\u00e9e fournir des moyens \u00e0 des projets qui am\u00e9liorent l'\u00e9tat de la plan\u00e8te. Mais il n'est pas rare qu'un projet soit qualifi\u00e9 de \"vert\" simplement s'il est \"pas vert mais mieux que si c'\u00e9tait pire\".\n\nC'est ainsi que vient d'\u00eatre qualifi\u00e9e \"d'obligation verte\" une obligation servant \u00e0 financer une nouvelle piste \u00e0 l'a\u00e9roport de Hong-Kong, au motif, selon Les Echos, que l'a\u00e9roport va \"faire la promotion des transports bas carbone\". Parce qu'ils encourageront les passagers \u00e0 marcher plut\u00f4t que d'utiliser des taxis une fois dans Hong Kong :) ?\n\nL'article souligne le \"point dur\" dans cette histoire : l'absence de norme pertinente, ce qui conduit chaque \u00e9metteur \u00e0 utiliser son propre cadre pour d\u00e9finir le \"vert\", avec \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence le risque que de temps en temps on aboutisse \u00e0 des absurdit\u00e9s, comme avec cet a\u00e9roport.\n\nIl n'y a qu'\u00e0 faire une norme diront certain(e)s. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Le d\u00e9lire du charbon by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/editos-analyses/le-delire-du-charbon-1378195" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le d\u00e9lire du charbon" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6887322175234224128,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 110, "length": 17, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean-Marc", "lastName": "Vittori", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAABMMHABybLIGbKxz3mYY-HDiuQyThsIgvg", "occupation": "\u00e9ditorialiste at Les Echos", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:4993136", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAABMMHABybLIGbKxz3mYY-HDiuQyThsIgvg", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 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"fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1627577164056?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=uqH-kOow02cCJ-IYtY7WlXQrnZcn4kvZqAnb2cZOuyc", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1627577164056?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=tMARCi9zRvkfMLRfUYQ_WT3ZVJqMoN8G7UWnXpq005o", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E03AQFd7DrjKwvLKg/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "okZbrSjMSbuSq3OeisKnww==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Comment va votre meilleur ennemi climatique ? Tr\u00e8s bien merci ! Ainsi pourrait se r\u00e9sumer cette chronique que Jean-Marc Vittori consacre au charbon dans Les Echos. Il y constate - \u00e0 regret - que ce combustible occupe la m\u00eame part dans la production \u00e9lectrique mondiale en 2019 qu'en 1973.\n\nPar contre, ce n'est pas au m\u00eame endroit que ca se passe. En 1973, la premi\u00e8re zone de consommation au monde \u00e9tait... l'Europe, avec 30% du total mondial. En 2020 ce n'est plus que 4%, et la \"r\u00e9sistance\" transitoire de l'Allemagne sur le sujet est en fait l'arbre qui cache la for\u00eat, m\u00eame si on peut regretter (et je le regrette) que notre voisin du nord ait fait le mauvais arbitrage entre charbon et nucl\u00e9aire.\n\nIncidemment, mais \u00e0 plus petite \u00e9chelle, la France conna\u00eet une situation proche : les plafonds r\u00e9glementaires de fonctionnement des centrales \u00e0 charbon vont \u00eatre relev\u00e9s.... \u00e0 cause d'un nucl\u00e9aire insuffisamment disponible, pour partie fortuitement (centrales arr\u00eat\u00e9es \u00e0 la demande de l'ASN pour remplacement de pi\u00e8ces dans les dispositifs de secours ; maintenance d\u00e9cal\u00e9e \u00e0 cause de la baisse de production due au covid) et pour partie d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment (fermeture de Fessenheim). Mon homonyme de pr\u00e9nom se permet incidemment de rappeler un tweet d'Emmanuel Macron qui en 2017 annon\u00e7ait que le charbon dans l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 serait supprim\u00e9 pendant son mandat :).\n\nLe climat n'est en fait pas du tout la cause premi\u00e8re de cette diminution en Europe : elle est due \u00e0 la baisse des ressources mini\u00e8res du Vieux Continent, qui a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 l'exploitation de ce combustible solide il y a plus 2 si\u00e8cles. Le pic de production, il s'est tr\u00e8s bien mat\u00e9rialis\u00e9 dans le charbon europ\u00e9en ! Et la raison premi\u00e8re pour laquelle l'Hexagone a fait du nucl\u00e9aire et non du charbon n'est pas par \"vertu climatique\", mais tout simplement parce que notre sous-sol ne contenait d\u00e9j\u00e0 plus beaucoup de houille (ou de lignite) au moment des chocs p\u00e9troliers.\n\nCette baisse a aussi eu lieu ailleurs dans les \"vieux pays industrialis\u00e9s\" : les USA \u00e9taient \u00e0 21% du total mondial en 1973 ; ils sont descendus \u00e0 6%. L\u00e0, c'est l'\u00e9conomie qui a chass\u00e9 le charbon (et pas non plus la vertu climatique) : le gaz est devenu moins cher. L'URSS \u00e9tait \u00e0 22% ; les pays de l'ex-bloc sovi\u00e9tique sont collectivement descendus \u00e0 4% en 2020. A nouveau peu de vertu dans l'affaire, mais surtout l'arriv\u00e9e d'un gaz domestique disponible en abondance (en valeur absolue le charbon n'a pas tant baiss\u00e9 que cela mais en part relative oui).\n\nLe charbon, aujourd'hui, c'est \u00e0 notre Est lointain que cela se passe : la Chine utilise 50% du total mondial, puis arrive l'Inde avec 12%, l'Asie au total faisant 80%. La question qui n'est pas pos\u00e9e dans la chronique, mais qui est bien celle qui compte, est : que pouvons nous y faire ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6887322175234224128,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6887322176152764416,urn:li:activity:6887322176152764416,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 37, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6887322176152764416,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6887322176152764416,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6886999770288726016,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "9,9 tonnes \u00e9quivalent CO2 : c'est la valeur \u00e0 laquelle aboutit l'\u00e9quipe de MYCO2 (version revisit\u00e9e du bilan carbone personnel dont votre serviteur avait tent\u00e9 une version pr\u00e9historique il y a 15 ans :) ) pour l'empreinte carbone d'un(e) fran\u00e7ais(e) en 2019.\n\nL'empreinte carbone d'un individu, c'est la totalit\u00e9 des \u00e9missions qui ont eu lieu, en France et hors de France, pour que l'individu en question puisse disposer de l'ensemble des produits et services qu'il \"consomme\". Sont inclus \u00e0 la fois les produits et services marchands (ceux que vous payez en direct) et les \"non marchands\" (en pratique pay\u00e9s par vos imp\u00f4ts : la d\u00e9fense, l'essentiel de la sant\u00e9 ou de l'\u00e9ducation). \n\nC'est tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rent des \u00e9missions territoriales, qui n'incluent pas les \u00e9missions n'ayant pas lieu sur le territoire mais permettant la fabrication des biens interm\u00e9diaires ou finaux qui sont import\u00e9s, ni les \u00e9missions qui \"n'appartiennent \u00e0 aucun pays\", \u00e0 savoir celles du transport maritime et a\u00e9rien internationaux (environ 4% des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires \u00e0 eux deux). Et, sym\u00e9triquement, les \u00e9missions territoriales incluent ce qui est associ\u00e9 aux exportations, qui iront alimenter la consommation de personnes ou d'entreprises hors du pays.\n\nIl y a plusieurs mani\u00e8res de faire ce calcul. Dans une version dat\u00e9e de 2011, en utilisant une m\u00e9thode bas\u00e9e sur des flux physiques reconstitu\u00e9s et des facteurs d'\u00e9mission \"physiques\", Carbone 4 avait obtenu une valeur de 10,5 tonnes \u00e9quivalent CO2 : https://lnkd.in/emVVEc-9 \n\nLa m\u00e9thode utilis\u00e9e par MyCO2 (qui fait partie de Carbone 4) se base sur des facteurs mon\u00e9taires et des tableaux entr\u00e9e-sortie, avec un compl\u00e9ment ad hoc pour quelques postes sp\u00e9cifiques (voir https://lnkd.in/eKegc6pz ). Le total est proche (9,9 tonnes) mais la r\u00e9partition un peu diff\u00e9rente de ce qui avait \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 en 2010. \n\nLes scientifiques qui \u00e9tudient le syst\u00e8me climatique nous disent que pour stabiliser ce dernier il faut commencer par stabiliser la quantit\u00e9 de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre dans l'atmosph\u00e8re, ce qui signifie que les \u00e9missions humaines doivent devenir quasi-nulles. \n\nPour que les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires deviennent nulles (ce qui finira par arriver un jour de toute fa\u00e7on !), ces 9,9 tonnes doivent donc devenir... pas loin de z\u00e9ro, et c'est aussi ce r\u00e9sultat qu'il faut viser pour l'empreinte carbone de tout autre habitant de la plan\u00e8te, quelle que soit la valeur de d\u00e9part. Avec des engagements de neutralit\u00e9 \u00e0 2050, cela doit se produire en l'espace de 30 ans.\n\nLa bonne question est alors de regarder comment, poste par poste, nous allons/pouvons faire pour amener les \u00e9missions du poste \u00e0 z\u00e9ro en 30 ans. A chaque fois nous devrons arbitrer entre baisser la consommation du poste (sobri\u00e9t\u00e9) et produire le r\u00e9siduel plus efficacement." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6886999770288726016,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6886999770863337473,urn:li:activity:6886999770863337473,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 34, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6886999770863337473,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6886999770863337473,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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moins depuis quelques ann\u00e9es !), le World Economic Forum (l'organisateur du forum de Davos entre autres choses) effectue une enqu\u00eate aupr\u00e8s de \"leaders globaux\" des domaines \u00e9conomique, politique, et de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile, sur leur perception des principaux facteurs de risque dans le monde.\n\nCela fait d\u00e9sormais plusieurs \u00e9ditions que le changement climatique arrive en t\u00eate de liste, et il est suivi (de peu) cette ann\u00e9e par l'atteinte \u00e0 la biodiversit\u00e9.\n\nAu vu de ce r\u00e9sultat, une personne \"normale\" se dira que si le changement climatique est identifi\u00e9 comme un \u00e9l\u00e9ment susceptible de fortement porter atteinte \u00e0 l'\u00e9conomie mondiale, alors la lutte contre le changement climatique devrait arriver en t\u00eate des actions des entreprises, ce qui signifie que les personnes en charge du climat ont \u00e0 la fois beaucoup d'audience et beaucoup de moyens dans les activit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques.\n\nCa, c'est la th\u00e9orie. En pratique, il semblerait bien que le premier risque contre lequel les dirigeants \u00e9conomiques souhaitent se couvrir est celui... de la baisse du cours de bourse. Les dividendes mondiaux vont peut-\u00eatre \u00e9tablir un nouveau record en 2021 (ils ont plus que doubl\u00e9 depuis la \"crise financi\u00e8re\" de 2008 : https://lnkd.in/eRSKbH-Y ), tout comme les rachats d'actions (https://lnkd.in/eEp4-fyN ). \n\nCes deux op\u00e9rations conjugu\u00e9es vont repr\u00e9senter en 2021 (dans le monde) plus que le PIB fran\u00e7ais... et 25 fois les montants qui devraient \u00eatre allou\u00e9es au climat au titre du \"Fonds Vert\" pr\u00e9vu dans le cadre de la Convention Climat.\n\nCet actionnaire qui a tant besoin d'\u00eatre rassur\u00e9, il s'appelle souvent un \u00e9pargnant. Les \"investisseurs\", ce sont avant tout les particuliers de la terre enti\u00e8re qui ont de l'\u00e9pargne financi\u00e8re, pour capitaliser en vue de leur retraite (les fameux \"fonds de pension\"), ou pour placer leurs \u00e9conomies (l'assurance vie par exemple). \n\nToute personne qui est \u00e0 la fois \"citoyen(ne) engag\u00e9(e)\" et \u00e9pargnante a donc un dilemme \u00e0 r\u00e9soudre : que privil\u00e9gier quand rendement et climat ne sont pas compatibles, ce qui sera tr\u00e8s souvent le cas avec la convention \u00e9conomique ignorant la contribution des ressources naturelles ? Tant que l'\u00e9pargnant dira \"rendement\" il ne faut pas s'attendre \u00e0 ce que les dirigeants r\u00e9pondent \"climat\". 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8011170330968942870)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Bourse : la finance durable, principale priorit\u00e9 de l'AMF pour 2022 by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/finance-marches/marches-financiers/les-priorites-du-gendarme-boursier-pour-2022-1376833" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Bourse\u00a0: la finance durable, principale priorit\u00e9 de l'AMF pour 2022" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6886627024862019584,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Autorit\u00e9 des March\u00e9s Financiers a inscrit \u00e0 son agenda de 2022 de \"se mobiliser pour faire avancer la finance durable\". Dans le document directement publi\u00e9 par l'AMF (https://lnkd.in/eyyYBCUk ) on peut lire qu'un des objectifs est \"l'action de supervision de l\u2019AMF s\u2019intensifie, notamment pour pr\u00e9venir le risque de greenwashing\" et \"portera une attention particuli\u00e8re aux enjeux climatiques\".\n\nIl est heureux que l'AMF note dans son document que \"La transition vers une finance durable d\u00e9pend (...) de la mont\u00e9e en expertise de l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me financier et de l\u2019appropriation par les \u00e9pargnants des concepts cl\u00e9s. C\u2019est pourquoi, l\u2019AMF a mis en place, en concertation avec le Haut conseil certificateur de Place, un nouveau module de v\u00e9rification des connaissances des professionnels portant sur la finance durable.\"\n\nLe Diable \u00e9tant dans les d\u00e9tails, il faudrait bien \u00e9videmment aller regarder d'un peu pr\u00e8s en quoi consistent les connaissances qui seront v\u00e9rifi\u00e9es, et notamment si elles incluent d'\u00eatre capable de comprendre le fonctionnement \"physique\" de l'\u00e9conomie (d\u00e9taill\u00e9 l\u00e0 par exemple, malgr\u00e9 le titre : https://lnkd.in/gPsGK-F ), la diff\u00e9rence entre responsabilit\u00e9 et d\u00e9pendance (sachant que le risque de transition est port\u00e9 par les \u00e9missions dont on d\u00e9pend - le fameux scope 3 : https://lnkd.in/eVSer7fm - et non les seules \u00e9missions dont on est juridiquement responsable), ou encore ce que signifie un \"alignement\" d'une entreprise avec une baisse globale des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires (probl\u00e8me qui n'est pas r\u00e9solu par une exclusion des portefeuilles d'investissement).\n\nLa question de savoir si la finance peut d'elle-m\u00eame r\u00e9orienter l'\u00e9conomie vers du d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 est un long d\u00e9bat, avec de bons arguments du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de ceux qui doutent que cela soit aussi simple que de le vouloir (https://lnkd.in/dRS9vNZ ). Mais il est par contre \u00e9vident que la finance doit mieux comprendre ce qu'elle fait, et que, plus important encore, le r\u00e9gulateur doit comprendre quel est l'impact climatique des r\u00e9gul\u00e9s pour agir en cons\u00e9quence.\n\nJe r\u00eave du jour o\u00f9 l'AMF suspendra la cotation d'une entreprise parce que ses documents de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence ne sont pas au bon niveau sur les obligations de reporting ou les actions pour se d\u00e9risquer en mati\u00e8re d'\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, ou retirera son agr\u00e9ment pour un v\u00e9hicule d'investissement pour les m\u00eames raisons. C'est probablement le prix \u00e0 payer pour faire monter d'un cran le s\u00e9rieux apport\u00e9 au sujet climat parmi les \"oblig\u00e9s\"." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6886627024862019584,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6886627026086739968,urn:li:activity:6886627026086739968,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 34, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6886627026086739968,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6886627026086739968,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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"saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:6999798389272284256)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "jancovici.com \u2022 8 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Une interview sur le site du JDD sur la taxonomie europ\u00e9enne by jancovici.com", "actionTarget": "https://jancovici.com/publications-et-co/interviews/une-interview-sur-le-site-du-jdd-sur-la-taxonomie-europeenne/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une interview sur le site du JDD sur la taxonomie europ\u00e9enne" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6886215002404007936,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est un des sujets du moment, alors j'y suis aussi all\u00e9 de mon petit couplet sur la fameuse \"taxonomie europ\u00e9enne\", dans cette interview publi\u00e9e sur le site du JDD, que je me suis permis de reproduire sur mon site maintenant que nous ne sommes plus Dimanche. \n\nEt comme la question qui a agit\u00e9 tout le monde \u00e9tait de savoir si le nucl\u00e9aire \u00e9tait vert ou pas vert, l'interview comporte aussi quelques questions qui portent sur cette \u00e9nergie, puis par extension sur les \"politiques \u00e9lectriques\" qui peuvent aider \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation.\n\nLa question n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 pos\u00e9e, donc je me la pose \u00e0 moi-m\u00eame avant d'y r\u00e9pondre :) : la question de la d\u00e9carbonation se r\u00e9sume-t-elle \u00e0 la question du nucl\u00e9aire ? 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Look Up\", \u00e0 destination des matinaux du Samedi qui \u00e9coutent RTL. Je remercie (quand m\u00eame) la radio qui m'a laiss\u00e9 \u00e9voquer \u00e0 l'antenne la \"frivolit\u00e9 des media\" (due au besoin de ne pas faire fuir l'audience, c'est-\u00e0-dire les recettes de la publicit\u00e9), qui, dans le film, est identifi\u00e9e comme une des causes de l'\u00e9chec des scientifiques \u00e0 faire passer leur message.\n\nEn 3 minutes il n'\u00e9tait \u00e9videmment pas question de faire une analyse sociologique compl\u00e8te de la situation \u00e9voqu\u00e9e dans ce film (ni du monde r\u00e9el confront\u00e9 au changement climatique), mais juste de rappeler que, pour cette oeuvre, la fameuse maxime \"Les personnages et les situations de ce r\u00e9cit \u00e9tant purement fictifs, toute ressemblance avec des personnes ou des situations existantes ou ayant exist\u00e9 ne saurait \u00eatre que fortuite\" ne s'applique pas vraiment.\n\nIl convient \u00e9videment de ne pas s'attarder sur le doigt du sage qui montre la Lune, ce qui signifierait \u00e9carter le fond du message parce que la qualit\u00e9 artistique du film ne semble pas au rendez-vous, ou parce que les acteurs principaux ont par ailleurs un mode de vie en total d\u00e9calage avec ce qui est souhaitable pour limiter le r\u00e9chauffement climatique (remarque valable pour \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s toutes les \"stars\" de cin\u00e9ma, et qui explique peut-\u00eatre pourquoi elles sont si peu nombreuses \u00e0 se mobiliser pour des causes environnementales). \n\nL'int\u00e9r\u00eat premier de ce film est bien de nous alerter sur notre \"somnambulisme\", et notre extraordinaire capacit\u00e9 collective \u00e0 mobiliser une tr\u00e8s large fraction de notre jus de cerveau \u00e0 am\u00e9liorer des gadgets anecdotiques alors que nous n\u00e9gligeons une partie de l'essentiel." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6885893809033543680,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"Open article: Hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 : comment le gouvernement pr\u00e9pare un nouveau geste by europe1.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.europe1.fr/economie/hausse-des-prix-de-lelectricite-le-gouvernement-prepare-un-nouveau-geste-4085999" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 : comment le gouvernement pr\u00e9pare un nouveau geste" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6885535940530507777,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Apr\u00e8s avoir cr\u00e9\u00e9 un \"march\u00e9 de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9\" qui n'avait aucune esp\u00e8ce de pertinence, les pouvoirs publics, mais aussi les consommateurs, se rendent compte que \"pas de march\u00e9\" est plus simple pour avoir des prix stables quand les facteurs de production font du yoyo (quelle d\u00e9couverte !).\n\nDans un syst\u00e8me int\u00e9gr\u00e9 et r\u00e9gul\u00e9, si le gaz se met \u00e0 valoir beaucoup plus cher, cela augmente le cout de production d'un peu moins de 5% de la production \u00e9lectrique fran\u00e7aise (celle qui est faite au gaz). 5% de la production qui passe de 40 \u00e0 400 euros le MWh, c'est 20 euros de plus en moyenne par MWh livr\u00e9 au consommateur, soit beaucoup moins que ce que le gouvernement a mis \u00e0 la charge des m\u00eames consommateurs avec les augmentations de prix dues au d\u00e9ploiement du solaire et de l'\u00e9olien (la fameuse CSPE). Pas de quoi en faire un fromage.\n\nMais dans un march\u00e9 ouvert, le prix de l'ensemble de ce qui est vendu s'ajuste sur le cout de production le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 du moment. Et l\u00e0 cela signifie que l'ensemble de ce qui est produit se vend beaucoup plus cher, la hausse allant dans la poche des producteurs et des interm\u00e9diaires.\n\nOn en revient alors \u00e0 cette demande \u00e9ternelle des acteurs du priv\u00e9 : privatiser les profits (quand tout va bien) et socialiser les pertes (quand tout va mal). Le beurre et l'argent du beurre.... \n\nDans les demandes du priv\u00e9 (particuliers inclus) arrive l'id\u00e9e d'augmenter la part de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 que EDF produit et est oblig\u00e9 de vendre \u00e0 perte (je dis bien \u00e0 perte) \u00e0 ses concurrents et aux gros consommateurs industriels, l'ARENH (acc\u00e8s r\u00e9gul\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire historique). Ce tarif est une invention des adorateurs du march\u00e9 qui a conduit, quand \"tout allait bien\", \u00e0 transf\u00e9rer de la rente d'EDF \u00e0 des acteurs priv\u00e9s (qui n'ont rien investi du tout avec cet argent qui leur est tomb\u00e9 du ciel) parce que ca allait cens\u00e9ment \u00eatre mieux pour tout le monde.\n\nPour tenter de \"r\u00e9parer\" les cons\u00e9quences de cette erreur (avoir cr\u00e9\u00e9 un syst\u00e8me \u00e9clat\u00e9 et complexe) on va en faire une deuxi\u00e8me : faire les poches du gestionnaire des centrales pour tenter de corriger \u00e0 la vol\u00e9e des prix excessifs n\u00e9s du syst\u00e8me d\u00e9faillant. Ca ne supprimera pas la volatilit\u00e9 mais appauvrira l'op\u00e9rateur \u00e0 qui on demande par ailleurs de garantir un syst\u00e8me stable et fiable (et, en plus, il n'est pas du tout sur que les \"concurrents\" qui ont acc\u00e8s \u00e0 plus d'arenh r\u00e9percutent \u00e0 leurs clients la totalit\u00e9 du gain pour eux !).\n\nIl y aurait beaucoup plus simple : constater que, dans un monde volatil parce que physiquement contraint (rappelons que la Mer du Nord a entam\u00e9 sa descente terminale sur sa production de gaz, et que les russes ne nous en fourniront pas \u00e9ternellement car leurs gisements s'\u00e9puiseront aussi), le march\u00e9 \u00e0 l'aval n'a pas d'utilit\u00e9, et revenir au syst\u00e8me int\u00e9gr\u00e9 d'avant (ce qui suppose \u00e9videmment de faire accepter \u00e0 la Commission que le march\u00e9 n'est pas l'alpha et l'om\u00e9ga en toutes circonstances). Une ambition pour la pr\u00e9sidence fran\u00e7aise de l'Union ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6885535940530507777,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840,urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 131, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840", "threadId": "activity:6885535941310627840", "allowedCommentersScope": "ALL", "totalSocialActivityCounts": { "socialDetailEntityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840", "urn": "urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840", "numComments": 629, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840", "reactionTypeCounts": [ { "count": 3656, "reactionType": "LIKE" }, { "count": 346, "reactionType": "PRAISE" }, { "count": 330, "reactionType": "MAYBE" }, { "count": 202, "reactionType": "INTEREST" }, { "count": 42, "reactionType": "APPRECIATION" }, { "count": 41, "reactionType": "EMPATHY" } ], "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840", "numLikes": 4617, "liked": false }, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6885535941310627840", "commentingDisabled": false, "likes": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 4617, "links": [] }, "elements": [] } } }, { "actor": { "urn": "urn:li:member:101316862", "image": { "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "attributes": [ { "sourceType": "PROFILE_PICTURE", "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean-Marc", "lastName": "Jancovici", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAYJ-P4B8XcfHOiVTdmiAyYGfvxBRs3J_Ug", "occupation": "Founding Partner, Carbone 4 - 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Alors consultez nos offres et postulez !\n\n\ud83d\udce2 Carbone 4 recrute \u2757\ufe0f\n\n- la Pratique \u00c9nergie \ud83d\udd06 cherche un\u00b7e Consultant\u00b7e ayant 1 \u00e0 2 ans d'exp\u00e9rience dans le Conseil et/ou le secteur de l'\u00e9nergie pour accompagner les \u00e9nerg\u00e9ticiens dans la d\u00e9carbonation de leur production !\n\n- la Pratique Agri-Agro \ud83c\udf3e cherche un\u00b7e Consultant Senior ayant 4 ans d'exp\u00e9rience dans un cabinet de conseil et/ou dans une entreprise du secteur de l\u2019agriculture ou de l\u2019agroalimentaire\n\n- la Pratique Finance \ud83d\udcb5 cherche un\u00b7e Consultant\u00b7e Senior ayant 3 \u00e0 5 ans\u00a0d\u2019exp\u00e9rience professionnelle, dont\u00a0au moins 2 ans en lien avec le secteur de la finance et/ou du conseil\u00a0(ou inspection g\u00e9n\u00e9rale) en vue d'aider les acteurs financiers \u00e0 aligner leurs investissements avec une trajectoire 1,5\u00b0C.\n\n- la Pratique Performance Climat cherche un\u00b7e 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climatique : \u00ab\u00a0L\u2019avenir d\u00e9pendra \u00e9troitement des d\u00e9cisions qui devront \u00eatre prises d\u00e8s cette ann\u00e9e\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6885125441665990656,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un \u00e9ditorial publi\u00e9 d\u00e9but janvier dans Le Monde invoque Le Monde sans Fin et la le\u00e7on inaugurale de Christian Gollier au Coll\u00e8ge de France (que je confesse ne pas avoir regard\u00e9e mais c'est l\u00e0 : https://lnkd.in/eaG73nHk ) pour souligner que notre avenir ne peut pas se concevoir comme une simple continuation du pass\u00e9.\n\nLe propos n'a rien de r\u00e9volutionnaire en soi. Ce qui est d\u00e9j\u00e0 plus int\u00e9ressant, c'est que cet \u00e9ditorial rappelle que l'\u00e9conomie mondiale s'est formidablement d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e sur les deux derniers si\u00e8cles gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une tr\u00e8s forte augmentation du parc de machines en service, permise par l'essor des combustibles fossiles. \n\nL'auteur fait donc sienne une lecture avant tout physique de nos activit\u00e9s productives, et mentionne m\u00eame au passage le nombre \"d'\u00e9quivalent esclave\" dont dispose un fran\u00e7ais moyen (gr\u00e2ce aux machines), issu de la BD pr\u00e9cit\u00e9e. Il en tire logiquement la conclusion qu'un monde qui se d\u00e9carbone - volontairement ou pas - est un monde plus sobre.\n\nIl conclut en \u00e9crivant : \"G\u00e9rer ce basculement in\u00e9vitable vers un monde plus cher, car plus \u00e9conome, mais aussi plus instable, devrait figurer en t\u00eate des pr\u00e9occupations des politiques en ce d\u00e9but 2022. Un plan \u00e0 dix ans. En auront-ils le courage\u00a0?\".\n\nJe ne sais pas si les politiques en auront le courage (je le souhaite, mais c'est une autre histoire !). Mais un plan, c'est tr\u00e8s exactement ce que nous allons essayer de leur fournir au travers du \"plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\", qui marie sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 et avanc\u00e9es techniques r\u00e9alistes : https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU\n\nCar en d\u00e9mocratie le courage politique est rarement une affaire de g\u00e9n\u00e9ration spontan\u00e9e. Il doit \u00eatre port\u00e9 par le \"courage\" des demandes de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6885125441665990656,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6885125442265763840,urn:li:activity:6885125442265763840,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 38, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6885125442265763840,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6885125442265763840,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8427785751131239560)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \u00ab En trois d\u00e9cennies, nous allons consommer 60 % des ressources de cuivre connues \u00bb by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/finance-marches/marches-financiers/en-trois-decennies-nous-allons-consommer-60-des-ressources-de-cuivre-connues-1377059" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00ab\u00a0En trois d\u00e9cennies, nous allons consommer 60\u00a0% des ressources de cuivre connues\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6884771945242484738,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A quelques nuances pr\u00e8s, cette interview - parue dans Les Echos - de \"quelqu'un\" \u00e0 l'IFPEN (il semble manquer le chap\u00f4, de telle sorte que l'on ne sait pas qui exactement est interrog\u00e9 !) aurait pu \u00e9maner du Shift Project.\n\nIl y est question de la disponibilit\u00e9 des m\u00e9taux pour assurer la transition vers un monde bas carbone dans un contexte d'opulence mat\u00e9rielle pr\u00e9serv\u00e9e (parce que sinon passer \u00e0 un monde bas carbone sans aucune production industrielle est assez facile :) )., et surtout de ce qui pourrait venir contrarier nos jolis plans de croissance verte.\n\nLa tension la plus importante ne viendra pas des terres rares, qui sont en fait des m\u00e9taux \"rarement utilis\u00e9s\", pour lesquels le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 court ou moyen terme est plus g\u00e9opolitique (la Chine concentre une tr\u00e8s large partie des capacit\u00e9s de production actuelles, mais il y a des ressources ailleurs) que physique.\n\nCe sont les m\u00e9taux non ferreux \"ordinaires\" qui risquent d'\u00eatre le plus limitants : cuivre, nickel, \u00e9ventuellement aluminium... Ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments sont bien sur disponibles en abondance dans la cro\u00fbte terrestre, mais pour pouvoir les exploiter il faut une concentration locale minimale (sinon l'\u00e9nergie d'extraction est trop \u00e9lev\u00e9e, car au bout du bout c'est toujours une question d'\u00e9nergie), et cela s'appelle alors... une mine. \n\nA titre d'exemple, les mines de cuivre actuellement en exploitation ont une teneur moyenne en m\u00e9tal de 0,5% en poids (sur le minerai), alors qu'il y a quelques si\u00e8cles les filons les plus riches pouvaient contenir plus de 10% en poids (il y a m\u00eame eu du cuivre natif exploit\u00e9 dans l'antiquit\u00e9). Plus la teneur baisse, plus il faut d'\u00e9nergie pour extraire le m\u00e9tal... qui doit justement servir au syst\u00e8me \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.\n\nAujourd'hui, le raisonnement sur la disponibilit\u00e9 future est avant tout bas\u00e9 sur les prix. Si les prix ont baiss\u00e9 dans le pass\u00e9, ce qui est le cas, alors cela signifie que cette tendance va se poursuivre, ce que nous traduisons tous par \"il n'y aura pas de probl\u00e8me de disponibilit\u00e9\". Malheureusement l'histoire r\u00e9cente montre qu'il y a de plus en plus de cas de figure o\u00f9 la baisse des prix d'hier n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9dictive de la disponibilit\u00e9 pour le lendemain. L'exemple le plus r\u00e9cent est celui des semi-conducteurs.\n\nIl est donc imp\u00e9ratif de ne pas raisonner uniquement \u00e0 partir de donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques quand on s'interroge sur la faisabilit\u00e9 \"physique\" d'un plan \"physique\" (et l'\u00e9nergie c'est physique !) pour l'avenir. Il faut \u00e0 ce titre saluer l'exercice que RTE a effectu\u00e9 dans ses derniers sc\u00e9narii, en consacrant 80 pages \u00e0 l'analyse \"environnementale\" des avenirs possibles, et en regardant justement la question des m\u00e9taux et mat\u00e9riaux n\u00e9cessaires, de l'espace, etc.\n\nDit autrement, les euros d'hier seront de moins en moins pr\u00e9dictifs de l'\u00e9conomie de demain. 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A l'occasion de la sortie du Monde sans Fin (r\u00e9approvisionn\u00e9 \u00e0 partir de mi-janvier) Konbini a souhait\u00e9 faire une vid\u00e9o dont le titre est, en toute simplicit\u00e9, \"sommes nous foutus ?\". \n\nSi l'on veut \u00e9viter la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la sauce Keynes (qui serait donc \"ce n'est qu'une question de temps\"), le but du jeu \u00e9tait d'essayer d'apporter, en 4 minutes et demie, un peu de nuance et de temporalit\u00e9 derri\u00e8re le oui ou non.\n\nRien de neuf sous le soleil pour celles et ceux qui ont lu la BD ou regard\u00e9 une vid\u00e9o plus longue de votre serviteur. 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\u00ab\u00a0vert\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6884189179568291841,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a quelques ann\u00e9es, la Commission europ\u00e9enne a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de cr\u00e9er une nomenclature des \"investissements verts\". Cela s'appelle la \"taxonomie\" et est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 aider les financiers \u00e0 orienter leurs investissements en faveur d'une \u00e9conomie plus durable. \n\nDepuis le d\u00e9but cette initiative souffre de quelques faiblesses, notamment en voulant un peu trop marier les contraires. D'un c\u00f4t\u00e9 il est question de favoriser la r\u00e9volution (car contribuer \u00e0 une baisse de moiti\u00e9 des \u00e9missions de CO2 en 30 ans \u00e0 \"niveau de vie\" constant, c'est en pratique participer \u00e0 la r\u00e9volution), et de l'autre de ne pas cr\u00e9er une contrainte trop forte - y compris en mati\u00e8re de reporting - pour le monde financier. Pas \u00e9vident !\n\nCette initiative a aussi choisi une approche normative des activit\u00e9s \u00e9ligibles. On comprend ce que cela peut signifier d'\u00eatre \"vert\" - ou pas - quand on parle d'un camion ou d'une installation de traitement des d\u00e9chets organiques, mais c'est moins \u00e9vident pour d'autres activit\u00e9s : comment d\u00e9finir un fabriquant de peintures, un distributeur de produits pour la maison, ou un importateur de meubles qui soit \"vert\" ? \n\nQuoi qu'il en soit, dans cette affaire, il a fallu statuer sur deux sujets qui importaient chacun \u00e0 l'un des deux \"gros\" \u00e9tats de l'Union Europ\u00e9enne : le nucl\u00e9aire et le gaz.\n\nUne b\u00eate logique \"factuelle\" aurait conduit \u00e0 regarder ce que disent les faits. Le nucl\u00e9aire est tr\u00e8s bas carbone, peu dangereux par MWh produit, et g\u00e9n\u00e9rateur de peu de nuisances : il est donc \u00e9ligible. Le gaz est \u00e9metteur de CO2, ce qui suffit \u00e0 le disqualifier puisque le but du jeu est de se d\u00e9barrasser des \u00e9missions. Une taxonomie \"activit\u00e9\" aurait donc du dire oui au nucl\u00e9aire et non au gaz.\n\nMais cela ne correspond pas \u00e0 la mani\u00e8re dont les r\u00e9glementations se font, qui incorporent toujours les jeux de pouvoir et l'envie de conforter la situation existante. La France ne voulait pas d'une r\u00e9glementation qui disqualifie sa principale source de production \u00e9lectrique, ce que voulait au contraire l'Allemagne, pour ne pas se mettre en porte-\u00e0-faux au regard de son choix historique d'abandonner le nucl\u00e9aire pour conserver du charbon.\n\nLa France ne voulait pas de gaz (dont nous n'avons en pratique pas besoin de mani\u00e8re significative aujourd'hui), alors que l'Allemagne oui, pour compl\u00e9ter ses modes intermittents \u00e0 la place du charbon (qui \u00e9met plus).\n\nLa paix des braves a conduit \u00e0 mettre le nucl\u00e9aire et le gaz dans les investissements \u00e9ligibles \"sous condition\". Pour le nucl\u00e9aire, l'enjeu \u00e9tait important, car cette \u00e9nergie est tr\u00e8s sensible aux conditions de financement de l'investissement initial (beaucoup plus que le gaz). Pour un r\u00e9acteur coutant 10 milliards d'euros \u00e0 construire et produisant 60 ans, le passage de 2% \u00e0 10% du rendement exig\u00e9 par les actionnaires et pr\u00eateurs ajoute 90 milliards d'euros de frais financiers sur la dur\u00e9e de construction et de fonctionnement. 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8979440872105466734)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Le grand plongeon du march\u00e9 automobile fran\u00e7ais by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/automobile/le-grand-plongeon-du-marche-automobile-francais-1375854" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le grand plongeon du march\u00e9 automobile fran\u00e7ais" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6884065047241404416,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il se vendait un peu plus de 2 millions de voitures particuli\u00e8res neuves par an en France jusqu'en 2019. En 2020 et 2021, ce m\u00eame segment a connu 25% de ventes en moins, soit 1,65 million par an.\n\nDans le monde fini, la baisse des ventes de voitures n'est qu'une question de temps. Ces objets de 1 \u00e0 2 tonnes faits de m\u00e9tal - essentiellement de l'acier mais aussi du cuivre, du nickel, du plomb, de l'\u00e9tain, de l'aluminium, de l'or m\u00eame (pour les composants \u00e9lectroniques), du platine (dans les pots catalytiques), etc, de d\u00e9riv\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers (plastiques, lubrifiants, textiles, pneus), de verre, et j'en passe, ne peuvent \u00eatre produits en quantit\u00e9s ind\u00e9finiment croissantes.\n\nLe covid est-il le \"d\u00e9but de la fin\" pour les ventes de ces grosses machines ? L'avenir le dira, mais le fait est que ce ralentissement est du \u00e0 des limites physiques : sur les semi-conducteurs, mais aussi sur des commodit\u00e9s de base comme l'acier ou le plastique. \n\nDans le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise du Shift Project, et plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment son volet \"industrie automobile\" (https://lnkd.in/eqhr44uN ), nous pr\u00e9conisons de baisser d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment les volumes fabriqu\u00e9s, pour se concentrer sur les petits mod\u00e8les et les v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques.\n\nDit autrement, apr\u00e8s avoir fortement cru, le secteur automobile devra un jour d\u00e9cro\u00eetre. 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verdissants : pr\u00e8s de 4 millions de professionnels en 2018" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6883732995652558848,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une \u00e9tude du minist\u00e8re de la transition \u00e9cologique conclut qu'il y aurait dans notre pays 4 millions d'emplois verts et verdissants. Un emploi vert y est d\u00e9fini comme un emploi \"directement au service de l'environnement\". Les salari\u00e9s concern\u00e9s (140.000, soit 0,6% de l'emploi total) sont dans la distribution d'eau ou son \u00e9puration, le traitement des d\u00e9chets, et quelques sp\u00e9cialit\u00e9s dans le domaine de l'\u00e9nergie.\n\nParadoxe : ces emplois \"directement au service de l'environnement\" ne sont pas n\u00e9cessairement appel\u00e9s \u00e0 cro\u00eetre dans un monde plus \"vertueux\". Par exemple, si nous jetons moins d'emballages, les personnes qui s'occupent du traitement des d\u00e9chets sont moins nombreuses !\n\nPar ailleurs, ce n'est pas parce qu'ils \"servent l'environnement\" qu'ils \u00e9chappent \u00e0 toute logique \u00e9conomique. \n\nPourquoi tous les autres m\u00e9tiers ne pourraient-ils pas conjuguer \"au service de l'environnement\" et logique \u00e9conomique ? Si nous voulons respecter les limites plan\u00e9taires, il faudra bien que tout emploi se mette lui aussi \"au service de l'environnement\" d'une certaine mani\u00e8re ?\n\nPour essayer d'aller un cran plus loin, le minist\u00e8re a cr\u00e9\u00e9 les m\u00e9tiers \"verdissants\", c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire \"dont les comp\u00e9tences \u00e9voluent pour int\u00e9grer les enjeux environnementaux\". On y trouve 200.000 personnes du contr\u00f4le qualit\u00e9 dans l'industrie, 400.000 personnes travaillant dans le gros oeuvre du b\u00e2timent, ou encore 500.000 conducteurs d'un engin de transport, au sein d'un ensemble (voir graphique en commentaire) dont les contours restent discutables.\n\nEn effet, pourquoi un chauffeur routier serait-il plus \"verdissant\" qu'un enseignant (qui devra transmettre des connaissances et comp\u00e9tences essentielles pour changer l'\u00e9conomie), un restaurateur (qui peut proposer des menus avec moins de viande et plus de productions label avec le bon cahier des charges), ou un artiste (qui peut proposer des cr\u00e9ations invitant \u00e0 respecter l'environnement) ? Myst\u00e8re...\n\nEn fait la bonne question est probablement \u00e0 se poser dans l'autre sens : si nous voulons mettre l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise en coh\u00e9rence avec une baisse de 5% des \u00e9missions par an (dans le monde), qui doit faire quoi et de quelles comp\u00e9tences avons nous besoin ? Cela fera la part des choses entre les effectifs qui doivent augmenter tout en exer\u00e7ant diff\u00e9remment (par exemple les agriculteurs), ceux qui doivent exercer diff\u00e9remment mais n'ont pas n\u00e9cessairement besoin d'\u00eatre plus nombreux (par exemple les enseignants), et enfin ceux qui doivent diminuer parce que la reconversion intrasectorielle semble difficile (par exemple le transport a\u00e9rien ou la construction auto).\n\nC'est exactement l'angle qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 retenu pour le chantier \"emploi\" du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise du Shift Project : https://lnkd.in/e54-j6X3 Pour ce sujet essentiel qu'est l'emploi, il faut, comme ailleurs, bien d\u00e9finir ce que l'on compte et pourquoi pour ne pas se rater." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6883732995652558848,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Environnement : 2022 sera-t-elle une bonne ann\u00e9e pour la plan\u00e8te ? by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/c-est-notre-planete/7900110242-environnement-2022-sera-t-elle-une-bonne-annee-pour-la-planete" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Environnement : 2022 sera-t-elle une bonne ann\u00e9e pour la plan\u00e8te ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6883130680465784832,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les anglais appellent cela \"crash the party\". C'est le comportement qui consiste \u00e0 venir g\u00e2cher une f\u00eate en y d\u00e9barquant expr\u00e8s pour cela. C'est peut-\u00eatre ce qu'ont ressenti les auditeurs matinaux de RTL (les pauvres ! d\u00e9j\u00e0 ils \u00e9taient debout \u00e0 l'heure o\u00f9 la France enti\u00e8re roupillait, et en plus ils ont du se farcir 3 minutes de mauvaises nouvelles) en \u00e9coutant cette premi\u00e8re manifestation \"travaill\u00e9e\" de l'ann\u00e9e (enregistr\u00e9e \u00e0 l'avance, quand m\u00eame :) ) en \u00e9coutant cette chronique leur expliquant que dans les bons voeux pour 2022 il y en a un qu'il vaut mieux ne pas faire : souhaiter que les \"ennuis climatiques\" s'en aillent comme par miracle. L'inertie du syst\u00e8me productif et l'inertie climatique l'interdisent.\n\nPour les amis du carbone (voire les ennemis, les seuls non concern\u00e9s \u00e9tant les neutres, puisque l'on ne peut pas \u00eatre neutre tout seul avec le carbone comme chacun sait) cette ann\u00e9e sera n\u00e9anmoins \u00e0 surveiller \u00e0 deux occasions au moins :\n\n- la France prend la pr\u00e9sidence de l'Union Europ\u00e9enne ce jour. 80% de la r\u00e9glementation environnementale applicable aux entreprises (ou aux exploitants agricoles) est d'origine europ\u00e9enne. La pr\u00e9sidence fran\u00e7aise est donc l'occasion de pousser des \"bons\" sujets... si tant est que l'on en ait.\n\n- nous allons changer de gouvernement au milieu de l'ann\u00e9e. Pour le moment, aucun(e) des candidat(e)s sur les rangs ne semble vraiment taill\u00e9(e) pour le d\u00e9fi que nous avons \u00e0 affronter, mais au bout du bout il faudra bien choisir, et d'ici l\u00e0 faire tout ce qui est possible pour que nos candidat(e)s soient un peu plus concern\u00e9s par les limites plan\u00e9taires que Meryl Streep dans \"Don't Look Up\". \n\nDe fait, il n'est pas tr\u00e8s rassurant que notre pr\u00e9sident d\u00e9marre l'ann\u00e9e par des voeux (https://lnkd.in/eHb7g_RP ) o\u00f9 le d\u00e9fi environnemental n'est pas mentionn\u00e9 mais l'accueil de youtubeurs \u00e0 l'Elys\u00e9e et l'exploration spatiale oui (deux points qui figurent dans le film Don't Look Up ; la co\u00efncidence est vraiment troublante...), et ait termin\u00e9e la pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente par une interview fleuve de 2 heures o\u00f9 il n'en \u00e9tait pas plus question.\n\nLa seule chose de certaine pour cette ann\u00e9e est que ce ne sera pas le calme plat. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: I\u2019m a climate scientist. Don\u2019t Look Up captures the madness I see every day | Peter Kalmus by amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/29/climate-scientist-dont-look-up-madness" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "I\u2019m a climate scientist. Don\u2019t Look Up captures the madness I see every day | Peter Kalmus" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6882633189316210688,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a quelques semaines est sorti le film \"Don't Look Up\", avec toute une brochette de stars. Ce film relate - pour celles et ceux qui ne l'ont pas vu - la croisade d'un groupe de scientifiques qui tente d'alerter le monde politique et m\u00e9diatique apr\u00e8s avoir d\u00e9couvert une com\u00e8te qui s'appr\u00eate \u00e0 frapper la terre, tuant potentiellement toute vie humaine.\n\nIls vont \u00e9videmment chercher \u00e0 alerter la population, et en premier lieu les pouvoirs publics et la presse. En face d'eux, ils vont cependant rapidement trouver l'incapacit\u00e9 du politique \u00e0 changer ses priorit\u00e9s de court terme, la frivolit\u00e9 du monde m\u00e9diatique qui consid\u00e8re qu'il faut \"dire des choses positives\", et le lobbying du monde des affaires, qui se persuade que la catastrophe peut \u00eatre chang\u00e9e en opportunit\u00e9.\n\nToute ressemblance avec une situation r\u00e9elle n'est \u00e9videmment pas fortuite : le film est l\u00e0 pour nous rappeler qu'en mati\u00e8re de changement climatique, nous sommes exactement dans la m\u00eame situation. C'est ce qui conduit Peter Kalmus - un \"scientifique du climat\" - \u00e0 \u00e9crire dans cette tribune publi\u00e9e dans le Guardian que ce film est \"the most accurate film about society\u2019s terrifying non-response to climate breakdown I\u2019ve seen\", et qui y d\u00e9veloppe son \"spleen\" li\u00e9 \u00e0 une frustration profonde parce que la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n'arrive pas \u00e0 modifier son comportement en tenant compte de cette nouvelle information. Je dois dire que je partage un peu de ce sentiment...\n\nCette satire \u00e9vite deux \u00e9cueils du \"Jour d'Apr\u00e8s\" (https://lnkd.in/e5XvPYX ), o\u00f9 le fond scientifique \u00e9tait plein d'invraisemblances, et qui se terminait par un \"happy end\", quittant \u00e0 la fin du film le message de d\u00e9part pour rejoindre le fil plus classique du h\u00e9ros qui triomphe de l'adversit\u00e9 (avec un paquet de morts au passage, mais peu importe).\n\nDans ce film, et sans spoiler la fin, la coh\u00e9rence et l'ironie cruelle restent jusqu'au bout. Le message est clair.\n\nPuisque nous approchons de l'\u00e9poque des voeux, peut-on souhaiter qu'en 2022 le monde politico-m\u00e9diatique - car c'est lui qui est vis\u00e9 en priorit\u00e9 dans ce film - re\u00e7oive le message tr\u00e8s explicite qui lui adress\u00e9 par cette fiction, qui n'en est qu'\u00e0 moiti\u00e9 une par bien des aspects ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6882633189316210688,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6882633190025043968,urn:li:activity:6882633190025043968,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 514, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6882633190025043968,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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RTE publie une actualisation de ses \"perspectives d'offre-demande d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour l'hiver\" : https://lnkd.in/eiGpJTuz\n\nOn peut y lire \"\u00c0 ce jour, le diagnostic met en \u00e9vidence que le recours \u00e0 des moyens \u00ab post march\u00e9 \u00bb (interruption de grands consommateurs industriels, baisse de la tension sur les r\u00e9seaux de distribution) serait probable en cas de vague de froid (de l\u2019ordre de 4 \u00b0C en dessous des normales) ou de situation de tr\u00e8s faible production \u00e9olienne sur la plaque europ\u00e9enne, et quasi-certain si\nces deux facteurs se combinent.\n\nEn dernier ressort, le recours \u00e0 des coupures cibl\u00e9es de consommateurs demeure une solution \u00e0 laquelle RTE devra potentiellement recourir en cas de conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques\ndifficiles (vague de froid durant plusieurs jours coupl\u00e9e avec une absence de vent en France et dans les pays voisins) ou de nouvelle d\u00e9gradation des capacit\u00e9s de production, notamment\nnucl\u00e9aires.\"\n\nEn bref : c'est un peu tendu. 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r\u00e9glementation environnementale r\u00e9volutionne la construction" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6882281092297109504,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Au 1er janvier de la nouvelle ann\u00e9e, les demandes de permis de construire d\u00e9pos\u00e9es en France pour les logements neufs devront satisfaire \u00e0 un plafond maximal d'\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre par m\u00e8tre carr\u00e9, en incluant \u00e0 la fois la phase de construction et celle d'utilisation sur une dur\u00e9e conventionnelle (50 ans).\n\nRien que pour la construction, le total d\u00e9passe actuellement 700 kilos \u00e9quivalent CO2 par m2 pour les logements (un peu plus en collectif qu'en individuel, voir graphique en commentaire). Le total admissible, utilisation du b\u00e2timent incluse, va descendre par paliers au fil des ann\u00e9es. En 2030, il ne faudra pas d\u00e9passer environ 400 pour les maisons et environ 500 pour le logement collectif pour avoir le droit de construire.\n\nC'est donc une inflexion tr\u00e8s forte qui est imprim\u00e9e au secteur du b\u00e2timent, qui va l'obliger \u00e0 modifier beaucoup de choses dans les techniques constructives. \n\nCette approche illustre un point majeur : pour r\u00e9pondre au d\u00e9fi climatique, vaut-il mieux un prix ou une norme ? Le prix, c'est la taxe carbone : taxons le carbone, et \"spontan\u00e9ment\" les constructeurs utiliseront moins de ciment, moins de bitume, moins de moquette, moins d'\u00e9lectronique dans le b\u00e2timent...\n\nCela suppose d'avoir partout des m\u00e9canismes de r\u00e9percussion des surcouts \u00e0 l'aval qui se fassent sans modifications des chaines de valeur, et notamment sans importations issues de pays ne taxant pas le carbone pour tout ce qui se transporte facilement.\n\nL'autre option est d'imposer un plafond en termes d'\u00e9missions (la norme). C'est finalement cette deuxi\u00e8me voie qui s'impose dans la construction, et dans les transports (sur les \u00e9missions des v\u00e9hicules neufs). Mais \u00e0 raison : elle rend l'avenir pr\u00e9visible en disant exactement quoi faire.\n\nApr\u00e8s le neuf (qui doit baisser parce qu'il artificialise les sols), le grand d\u00e9fi suivant sera le contenu carbone de la r\u00e9novation." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6882281092297109504,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6882281092817186816,urn:li:activity:6882281092817186816,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 127, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6882281092817186816,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6882281092817186816,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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"Le minist\u00e8re de la transition \u00e9cologique publie une \u00e9tude sur la marche et le v\u00e9lo dans les d\u00e9placements des fran\u00e7ais(es) : https://lnkd.in/em2qpTMy\n\nInformation importante \u00e0 garder en t\u00eate avant de regarder les r\u00e9sultats : ces derniers datent de... 2019. Or, il est probable que le covid a un peu chang\u00e9 la donne, que ce soit pour le total des trajets (t\u00e9l\u00e9travail), la part du v\u00e9lo (qui a du augmenter), et la part des transports en commun (qui a peut-\u00eatre baiss\u00e9 \u00e0 cause de la peur de la contamination).\n\nMais il n'en reste pas moins que la segmentation des pratiques par tranche d'\u00e2ge, sexe ou niveau de dipl\u00f4me est int\u00e9ressante. Les plus gros marcheurs sont les enfants (6-18 ans), suivis des... plus de 65 ans (un tiers des d\u00e9placements locaux dans chaque cas). Les 19-24 ans (un \u00e2ge auquel se prennent les bonnes - ou mauvaises - habitudes d'adulte) marchent beaucoup moins (moins d'un cinqui\u00e8me des d\u00e9placements locaux) et ne p\u00e9dalent pas plus que les plus de 65 ans !\n\nLa synth\u00e8se ne d\u00e9taille pas tous les r\u00e9sultats quantitatifs qui sont mis \u00e0 disposition dans un tableur en libre acc\u00e8s. On y d\u00e9couvre que (sans surprise) la marche est consid\u00e9rablement plus pratiqu\u00e9e s'il n'y a pas de v\u00e9hicule automobile \u00e0 disposition du m\u00e9nage, mais aussi qu'elle est plus pratiqu\u00e9e s'il n'y a pas de v\u00e9lo \u00e0 disposition ! (mais je soup\u00e7onne que c'est un effet revenu : avoir assez d'argent pour se payer une voiture va avec le fait d'en avoir assez pour se payer - et surtout avoir l'espace pour stocker - un v\u00e9lo...).\n\nSi l'on fait le total des modes actifs (marche et v\u00e9lo) par grande agglom\u00e9ration (le d\u00e9tail n'est pas fourni pour les zones rurales), il va de 7,8% pour Rouen \u00e0 14,5% pour Strasbourg, soit une variation du simple au double, qui ne s'explique pas compl\u00e8tement par le relief, m\u00eame si la synth\u00e8se note que \"Sur un trajet en pente, le nombre de cyclistes est deux fois plus faible que sur un trajet int\u00e9gralement plat, en 2019. Cet effet d\u00e9courageant du relief est plus fort pour les femmes.\"\n\nEn effet, Rouen est certes dans une vall\u00e9e avec la banlieue sur\u00e9lev\u00e9e, mais c'est aussi le cas de Nancy et de Grenoble ; cette derni\u00e8re \u00e9tant 2\u00e8 avec 13,8%. Par ailleurs cet inconv\u00e9nient devient bien moins fort avec des v\u00e9los \u00e0 assistance \u00e9lectrique.\n\nSans que les chiffres ne soient fournis dans le tableur, la note fournit une indication int\u00e9ressante : \"Quand la densit\u00e9 du r\u00e9seau cyclable d\u2019une commune d\u00e9passe 2500 m\u00e8tres par km\u00b2, la pratique du v\u00e9lo est, toutes choses \u00e9gales par ailleurs, presque trois plus importante que dans une commune qui ne compte aucun r\u00e9seau\".\n\nVoici probablement une indication \u00e0 m\u00e9diter pour les am\u00e9nageurs de l'espace..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6881925664627331072,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6881925665298399232,urn:li:activity:6881925665298399232,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 58, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { 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leur choix, notre probl\u00e8me" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6881552078376890368,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'ann\u00e9e qui s'ach\u00e8ve aura \u00e9t\u00e9 une ann\u00e9e de contrastes pour le nucl\u00e9aire en Europe, qui fait l'objet de positions de plus en plus \u00e9loign\u00e9es au sein des pays du Vieux Continent, ce qui conduit les Echos \u00e0 constater (\u00e0 raison) que les d\u00e9cisions de fermeture sont prises nationalement mais avec des impacts sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement hors des fronti\u00e8res : https://lnkd.in/ev4GyiTj\n\nL'Allemagne va fermer pr\u00e9matur\u00e9ment 4 GW au 31 d\u00e9cembre ; la Belgique n'en peut plus de d\u00e9cider de fermer pr\u00e9matur\u00e9ment ses capacit\u00e9s (https://lnkd.in/ekM4X-9Q ), ce qui va conduire soit \u00e0 un syst\u00e8me importateur fragile (voire des d\u00e9lestages), soit \u00e0 des centrales \u00e0 gaz fossile suppl\u00e9mentaires, en violation des engagements de baisse des \u00e9missions ; l'Espagne voudrait en sortir en 2035 sans bien savoir par quoi de d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 le remplacer (l'Espagne illustre tr\u00e8s bien la situation d'arriv\u00e9e de l'Allemagne : peu de charbon mais beaucoup de gaz pour \"backer\" l'\u00e9olien, ce \u00e0 quoi il faut rajouter des importations structurelles, qui demandent donc des capacit\u00e9s pilotables en dehors des fronti\u00e8res : https://lnkd.in/eHyARXCx) ; la Suisse est aussi partie pour ne pas renouveler ses capacit\u00e9s nucl\u00e9aires.\n\nDe l'autre c\u00f4t\u00e9, la France veut construire de nouveaux r\u00e9acteurs ; les Pays Bas viennent de d\u00e9cider de le faire (https://lnkd.in/eWmZDa_g ) ; la Pologne aussi (https://lnkd.in/eMYbVZxA ) ; La Finlande a un sixi\u00e8me r\u00e9acteur en construction apr\u00e8s Olkiluoto et les Verts y sont pronucl\u00e9aires (https://lnkd.in/epJ75pvj ), et enfin l'Italie montre des signes de revirement (https://lnkd.in/eJHZy62J). \n\nRTE a rappel\u00e9 dans son r\u00e9cent rapport qu'un syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique \"100% ENR\" en France demanderait un rythme d'\u00e9quipement en \u00e9oliennes et panneaux solaires d\u00e9passant tous les ans - pendant 30 ans - le maximum de ce qu'ont fait l'Allemagne ou la Grande Bretagne de 2009 \u00e0 2020 : https://lnkd.in/ePPhXAzg\n\nEt cela nous ram\u00e8ne \u00e0 cet \u00e9ditorial des Echos : quelle attitude adopter, au sein d'un ensemble europ\u00e9en cens\u00e9ment int\u00e9gr\u00e9 sur l'\u00e9nergie (il a m\u00eame \u00e9t\u00e9 fait pour cela : https://lnkd.in/eVRuWEtv ), envers des pays qui prennent unilat\u00e9ralement des d\u00e9cisions mettant un effort ou un risque \u00e0 la charge d'autrui sans leur demander leur avis ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6881552078376890368,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"Open article: Automobile : les SUV poursuivent leur irr\u00e9sistible marche en avant by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/automobile/automobile-les-suv-poursuivent-leur-irresistible-marche-en-avant-1374923" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Automobile\u00a0: les SUV poursuivent leur irr\u00e9sistible marche en avant" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6881185122629021696,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "En lisant que, sur les 10 premiers mois de 2021, les SUV ont fait une petite moiti\u00e9 des ventes en Europe, deux pens\u00e9es viennent \u00e0 l'esprit. \n\nLa premi\u00e8re est que, manifestement, l'acheteur de SUV neufs (le particulier acheteur de v\u00e9hicules neufs a 57 ans en moyenne : https://lnkd.in/eXDhm2FC ) a du mal \u00e0 se mettre d'accord avec le (grand-)parent inquiet pour l'avenir \"\u00e9cologique\" de ses (petits-)enfants.\n\nLa deuxi\u00e8me est que les pouvoirs publics ont aussi beaucoup de mal \u00e0 se mettre d'accord avec eux-m\u00eames. On veut bien de la neutralit\u00e9 carbone, mais quand m\u00eame pas au point de dissuader les acheteurs de v\u00e9hicules neufs de se procurer des mod\u00e8les lourds et gourmands en carburant. \n\nOn se retrouve ici avec deux conflits d'objectifs que nous sommes incapables d'arbitrer en faveur du long terme :\n- un conflit entre emploi/PIB et environnement : les mod\u00e8les concern\u00e9s sont des mod\u00e8les \u00e0 forte marge, et fabriqu\u00e9s en France ; ils sont donc particuli\u00e8rement \"pr\u00e9cieux\" pour les constructeurs fran\u00e7ais\n- un conflit entre \"s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme\" (les SUV procurent une impression de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de conduite parce qu'ils sont sur\u00e9lev\u00e9s) et \"s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme\" (ces mod\u00e8les sont plus pr\u00e9dateurs de l'environnement : ils demandent plus de mat\u00e9riaux \u00e0 la construction - et cela reste vrai pour les mod\u00e8les \u00e9lectriques - et \u00e9mettent plus \u00e0 l'utilisation).\n\nPerp\u00e9tuant une d\u00e9pendance forte aux carburants (puisqu'une voiture neuve reste 20 ans en circulation ensuite), ils pr\u00e9parent aussi \"par construction\" de nouveaux \u00e9pisodes de type \"gilets jaunes\", \u00e0 chaque fois que le prix du p\u00e9trole fera un bond vers le haut (et cela va arriver plus d'une fois sur les 20 ans qui viennent, parce qu'une production de p\u00e9trole contrainte \u00e0 la baisse alors que nous ne sommes pas en cours de sevrage engendre un prix devenant tr\u00e8s volatil).\n\nPuisque c'est l'\u00e9poque des voeux qui arrivent, j'en ai un : que chaque acheteur potentiel de ce genre de voiture ait l'obligation de lire un document explicatif sur l'\u00e9nergie et le changement climatique (au hasard une BD faite pour cela :) ), suivie d'un test de connaissances r\u00e9ussi, avant de r\u00e9aliser l'achat. Et que le passage du permis comporte le m\u00eame genre d'acquisition de connaissances avec le m\u00eame genre de test. \n\nSi le gouvernement est s\u00e9rieux sur ses d\u00e9claration climatiques, je suis s\u00fbr qu'il ne verra aucune objection \u00e0 impl\u00e9menter cette mesure." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6881185122629021696,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6881185123056852992,urn:li:activity:6881185123056852992,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 280, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6881185123056852992,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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in\u00e9vitablement au mur des p\u00e9nuries de comp\u00e9tences\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6880926496089796609,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 17, "length": 11, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Maroun", "lastName": "Edd\u00e9", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAC5t610BGxDC2dOsukiyYmfQ65q1kAXgvNs", "occupation": "ENS Ulm | HEC Paris | Institut Montaigne | Essayiste, auteur de La m\u00e9moire coupable (Bouquins)", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:778955613", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAC5t610BGxDC2dOsukiyYmfQ65q1kAXgvNs", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1575251023468?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=Bzfd2vZomS7HAXB2LA3Rp5OeWKrgQJZ61-qyL2hG92k", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": 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"800_800/0/1647159916257?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=Cc6a8osJpjVE3PZdrWHNBeiNktZaBgR-bNu2jRBBkCY", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E03AQEUp5nrrR_6hQ/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "j9iH21hkQpOZseNlTe8tKA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Cette tribune de Maroun Edd\u00e9 concerne le plan France 2030, mais il n'y aurait pas grand chose \u00e0 y changer si elle devait s'appliquer au plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise du Shift Project (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ). \n\nL'auteur y explique qu'il n'y a pas de grande vision qui tienne s'il n'y a pas les comp\u00e9tences pour la mette en oeuvre. De fait, qu'il s'agisse de r\u00e9industrialiser notre pays ou de le d\u00e9carboner, \u00e0 un moment nous aurons besoin de comp\u00e9tences \"physiques\", dans lesquelles on peut mettre \u00e0 la fois les ma\u00e7ons, les conducteurs de trains, les cultivateurs de lin, les forestiers, les r\u00e9parateurs de v\u00e9los, et bien d'autres encore, sans oublier des ing\u00e9nieurs de toute sorte.\n\nQue des grands dispositifs de formation soient n\u00e9cessaires aux grands dessins de l'\u00e9tat ne date pas d'hier : nos grands corps techniques, qui ont parfois tant fait jaser (les Mines, les Ponts, le G\u00e9nie Rural, les Eaux et For\u00eats...), sont n\u00e9s de la volont\u00e9 royale de doter le pays de voies de communications, de mines et d'industries, ou d'une agriculture performante et de for\u00eats pour disposer de bois. \n\nA l'heure o\u00f9 les grands d\u00e9fis s'appellent la prise en compte des limites plan\u00e9taires, il serait logique que notre appareil \u00e9ducatif s'oriente sans tarder dans la bonne direction. Une limite se g\u00e9rant quantitativement, il faut donc apprendre \u00e0 compter. Comme elle se rapporte \u00e0 notre environnement, il faut apprendre de quoi appr\u00e9hender ce dernier (physique, biologie, \u00e9cologie...). Et enfin il faut se former aux m\u00e9tiers de demain, qui demanderont de plus en plus de \"revenir \u00e0 ce qui se fabrique\" et non uniquement \u00e0 ce qui se g\u00e8re.\n\nL'\u00e9nergie abondante nous a \u00e9loign\u00e9 du physique. A l'\u00e8re de l'\u00e9nergie rare, la richesse \u00e9tait dans les ressources naturelles, et les comp\u00e9tences pr\u00e9cieuses dans ce qui permettait de les g\u00e9rer au mieux (agriculture, for\u00eats, mines). Puis la richesse et les comp\u00e9tences sont pass\u00e9es dans la transformation de ressources dont l'extraction a \u00e9t\u00e9 rendue facile par l'\u00e9nergie. Les fortunes sont devenues industrielles (et non fonci\u00e8res) et les m\u00e9tiers \"pr\u00e9cieux\" ceux de la transformation (de l'artisanat \u00e0 l'industrie).\n\nEncore un peu d'\u00e9nergie et de mondialisation et ce sont les services qui ont emport\u00e9 la mise. La richesse est pass\u00e9e dans la finance (la simple d\u00e9tention du capital) et l'aristocratie des m\u00e9tiers dans le \"management\" et la finance.\n\nLa contraction \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique imposera de revenir t\u00f4t ou tard \u00e0 une comp\u00e9tence du \"faire\" plut\u00f4t que du \"g\u00e9rer\" (ou plus exactement on ne pourra g\u00e9rer que si on sait faire). L'auteur a raison de d\u00e9plorer que pour le moment nous n'en prenions pas du tout le chemin. Il s'agit d'un angle mort majeur dans les plans gouvernementaux, et reconfigurer le syst\u00e8me \u00e9ducatif avec un objectif clair en t\u00eate devrait \u00eatre une de nos urgences nationales." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6880926496089796609,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6880926496593117184,urn:li:activity:6880926496593117184,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 82, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6880926496593117184,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6880926496593117184,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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excuses \u00e0 toutes celles et tous ceux qui n'ont pas pu trouver d'exemplaire du \"Monde sans fin\" pour le glisser sous le sapin auquel ils pensaient. La raison de cette \"p\u00e9nurie relative\" vient d'un d\u00e9calage entre ce que les libraires ont pressenti comme ventes au moment de la pr\u00e9sentation de l'album (ce \"sentiment\" des libraires permet \u00e0 l'\u00e9diteur de dimensionner le premier tirage et la mise en place) et le d\u00e9marrage effectif des ventes, qui est all\u00e9 bien plus vite que ce que les libraires avaient imagin\u00e9.\n\nDans un monde infini, l'\u00e9diteur se rattrape d\u00e8s qu'il voit le nombre d'albums \u00e9coul\u00e9s la premi\u00e8re semaine, en commandant imm\u00e9diatement une r\u00e9impression qui permet de ne pas \u00eatre en rupture de stock. Mais dans notre monde fini, il y a actuellement (effet conjugu\u00e9 du covid et de la \"reprise\" post-covid) une l\u00e9g\u00e8re p\u00e9nurie de papier et de carton. Ce dernier, en particulier, est tr\u00e8s demand\u00e9 par les op\u00e9rateurs de vente \u00e0 distance (Amazon en t\u00eate) pour les emballages.\n\nDu coup Dargaud n'a pas pu r\u00e9imprimer \u00e0 la vitesse \u00e0 laquelle les exemplaires \u00e9taient demand\u00e9s. Et du coup (bis) il y a des sapins qui resteront \"non garnis\" avec ce copieux (enfin raisonnablement copieux) ouvrage blainovicesque.\n\nJ'ai une bonne et une mauvaise nouvelle.\n\nLa mauvaise est qu'il y aura plein d'autres occasions de l'acheter. Mauvaise ? En effet, cet album n'existe que parce que nous avons un probl\u00e8me. Et tant que nous avons ce probl\u00e8me sur les bras, il sera quand m\u00eame utile de bien comprendre de quoi il retourne, ce qui \u00e9tait la modeste ambition de Christophe Blain et de votre serviteur en se mettant (au vrai sens du terme pour l'un des deux) \u00e0 la planche \u00e0 dessin.\n\nLa bonne est que d\u00e8s mi-janvier il y a deux r\u00e9impressions cons\u00e9quentes qui arrivent. Les voeux pouvant se souhaiter jusqu'au 31 janvier, et une bonne ann\u00e9e \u00e9tant \u00e9ventuellement une ann\u00e9e o\u00f9 nous devenons un peu plus s\u00e9rieux sur la question climatique, il y aura donc une premi\u00e8re occasion de se rattraper d'ici 3 semaines pour celles et ceux qui \u00e9taient fort chagrin d'avoir laiss\u00e9 la hotte du P\u00e8re Noel d\u00e9garnie.\n\nEt pour celles et ceux qui l'ont trouv\u00e9, l'ont offert, et ont \u00e9t\u00e9 content(e)s de l'effet produit, voici quelques suggestions pour r\u00e9\u00e9diter l'exp\u00e9rience \u00e0 l'occasion, puisqu'il n'y a aucune raison de se priver d'un peu de plaisir d'offrir, hein :\n- votre maire\n- votre d\u00e9put\u00e9(e)\n- votre patron(ne)\n- vos employ\u00e9(e)s\n- le/la responsable du supermarch\u00e9\n- les fonctionnaires de la direction des routes\n- les responsables des services d'urbanisme\n- le CDI du lyc\u00e9e\n- les tours op\u00e9rators\n- votre banquier (arf !)\n- et bien s\u00fbr vos beaux parents :)\n\nJe rappelle que cet ouvrage est \u00e0 conserver au moins un si\u00e8cle pour concourir efficacement \u00e0 la soustraction de CO2 de l'atmosph\u00e8re. Si vous n'en voulez plus, donnez le \u00e0 une biblioth\u00e8que !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6880159803595907072,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6880159804292157440,urn:li:activity:6880159804292157440,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 441, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6880159804292157440,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6880159804292157440,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6879841892004098048,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Selon Swiss Re, 2021 sera la 4\u00e8 ann\u00e9e la plus couteuse en termes de catastrophes naturelles, avec une facture de 105 milliards de dollars pour les assureurs.\n\n105 milliards de dollars, c'est assur\u00e9ment plus d'argent que tout lecteur de ce post n'en aura jamais (ce qui signifie que je renonce d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment \u00e0 \u00eatre lu par Bezos, Musk, Arnault et Gates ; j'esp\u00e8re que ce renoncement sera appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 \u00e0 sa juste valeur).\n\nMais face \u00e0 un PIB mondial qui se monte \u00e0 environ 80.000 milliards par an, c'est juste ri-di-cule. Pour une personne qui gagnerait 80.000 euros par an, cela signifierait une perte d'environ 100 euros \u00e0 cause du climat (car en 2021 il y a une toute petite partie qui vient de causes non climatiques). Ca ou rien, c'est pareil !\n\nRegarder le probl\u00e8me sous l'angle des pertes \u00e9conomiques actuelles est donc se condamner \u00e0 ne rien faire. Cette approche nous masque trois points essentiels :\n- tout d'abord la perte d'activit\u00e9 cons\u00e9cutive \u00e0 la destruction d'une infrastructure n'est pas toujours dans les dommages assur\u00e9s, et peut se monter \u00e0 bien plus que le cout de reconstruction de l'infrastructure,\n- ensuite la facilit\u00e9 \u00e0 reconstruire les infrastructures d\u00e9truites vient de l'abondance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Plus cette derni\u00e8re sera affaiblie avec la baisse - d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9e ou subie - des combustibles fossiles, plus il sera difficile de r\u00e9tablir l'infrastructure d\u00e9truite, ou plus les cons\u00e9quences de sa destruction seront durables.\n- enfin et surtout les ressources naturelles dont d\u00e9pendent nos activit\u00e9s sont gratuites par convention. Si le changement climatique les d\u00e9truit, cela est invisible dans les dommages assur\u00e9s... mais pas du tout dans le niveau de \"prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9\" de l'humanit\u00e9.\n\nIl serait donc tr\u00e8s dangereux d'en rester aux dommages assur\u00e9s pour se rassurer \u00e0 bon compte. 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mais il y en a plusieurs qui s'empilent :\n- peu de vent sur l'Europe (parce que ca arrive de temps en temps...)\n- peu de soleil (logique, c'est l'hiver)\n- un prix du gaz tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9 parce que les russes se font un peu tirer l'oreille pour nous en fournir (et donc cela tire vers le haut le kWh \u00e9lectrique au gaz)\n- un quota de CO2 dont le prix est \u00e9lev\u00e9 (logique, puisque nous voulons \"sortir du CO2\")\n- une demande \u00e9lev\u00e9e parce qu'il a fait froid (le chauffage n'est pas seul en cause : plein d'autres consommations augmentent aussi quand il fait froid).\n- et en France l'arr\u00eat de quelques r\u00e9acteurs, mais on voit que cela ne diff\u00e9rencie pas notre pays du reste de l'Europe.\n\nAucune de ces causes n'est v\u00e9ritablement une surprise (pas m\u00eame le fait que l'on arr\u00eate un r\u00e9acteur de temps en temps pour remplacer une pi\u00e8ce qui doit \u00eatre chang\u00e9e ; toute machine est p\u00e9riodiquement v\u00e9rifi\u00e9e et parfois arr\u00eat\u00e9e pour r\u00e9paration sans que ce soit n\u00e9cessairement une catastrophe qui vient d'\u00eatre \u00e9vit\u00e9e). \n\nAdmettons que l'on commence \u00e0 se dire que notre syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique est parti dans une mauvaise passe. Suffit-il, alors de demander \u00e0 EDF de \"prendre toutes les mesures pertinentes pour renforcer \u00e0 court terme la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d\u2019approvisionnement\", comme l'a fait Mme Pompili au nom du gouvernement (https://lnkd.in/eDbEqzkG), pour que finalement les probl\u00e8mes soient r\u00e9gl\u00e9s ?\n\nPas n\u00e9cessairement. Le syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique est un syst\u00e8me lent. Il se pilote sur des d\u00e9cennies. La conjonction de cet hiver (un peu de froid, pas de vent, pas assez de gaz russe - \u00e0 terme parce qu'ils passeront leur pic de production, pas de soleil, et des moyens pilotables diminu\u00e9s) se reproduira \u00e0 l'avenir, et sera d'autant plus difficile \u00e0 g\u00e9rer que nous prenons des paris pas du tout assur\u00e9s de r\u00e9ussir. \n\nPour le moment la seule cons\u00e9quence est un prix tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9 sur le march\u00e9 spot (sachant que l'essentiel des transaction se fait \u00e0 terme). 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atteindre la neutralit\u00e9 carbone, faisons \u00e9voluer le syst\u00e8me garantissant l'origine de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6878984498118213634,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Connaissez vous \"l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 verte\" ? Cette d\u00e9nomination d\u00e9signe en pratique un contrat d'achat d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 par lequel le fournisseur vous vend en m\u00eame temps de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (qui physiquement vient en pratique du m\u00eame r\u00e9seau quel que soit le vendeur) et des certificats de garantie d'origine. \n\nCes derniers attestent simplement que \"un producteur a inject\u00e9 de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d'origine renouvelable dans le r\u00e9seau europ\u00e9en il y a moins d'un an\". Il n'y a aucun lien physique sp\u00e9cifique entre l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 qui franchit votre compteur et l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d'origine renouvelable qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 inject\u00e9e dans le r\u00e9seau \u00e0 n'importe quel moment de l'ann\u00e9e \u00e9coul\u00e9e.\n\nDans cette tribune, les auteurs proposent que :\n- ces garanties d'origine ne puissent \u00eatre \u00e9chang\u00e9es entre pays au-del\u00e0 des capacit\u00e9s physiques d'interconnexion (alors que c'est le cas aujourd'hui),\n- et que ces garanties d'origine ne soient valables qu'une heure et pas une ann\u00e9e (\u00e0 ce moment votre fournisseur serait oblig\u00e9 de vous d\u00e9clarer de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \"pas verte\" quand il y a plus de clients de \"l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 verte\" que de fourniture physique d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 renouvelable pendant l'heure qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de).\n\nIl s'agit donc de mieux faire coller la convention contractuelle \u00e0 la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 physique (m\u00eame si ca sera encore imparfait). La deuxi\u00e8me disposition, en particulier, mettrait des obligations de stockage \u00e0 la charge des producteurs non pilotables. En ce moment, o\u00f9 nait un d\u00e9bat sur \"le passage de l'hiver\", qui d\u00e9pend pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment de ces capacit\u00e9s pilotables, on en comprend l'int\u00e9r\u00eat.\n\nPar exemple, hier \u00e0 19h, il y avait 4 GW de puissance effective sur 100 GW de puissance \u00e9olienne et solaire install\u00e9e (premier graphique en commentaire), et en France c'\u00e9tait 3 GW sur 30 GW install\u00e9s (deuxi\u00e8me graphique). La situation est identique ce matin, avec pour r\u00e9sultat que ce sont les moyens fossiles qui tournent \u00e0 plein r\u00e9gime (en Europe, la disponibilit\u00e9 des 4 r\u00e9acteurs d\u00e9coupl\u00e9s en France ne change pas grand chose). \n\nEn cas de pari sur un ensemble \"ENR intermittentes + back-up pilotable d\u00e9carbon\u00e9\", ce risque de \"d\u00e9faut de capacit\u00e9s de pilotage d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es\" a \u00e9t\u00e9 bien identifi\u00e9 par RTE dans son volumineux rapport r\u00e9cent. Il en r\u00e9sulterait l'une des deux cons\u00e9quences suivantes :\n- maintien de moyens fossiles et exc\u00e8s de CO2\n- d\u00e9faut d'approvisionnement en gaz (\u00e9puisable et dont le pic mondial n'attendra pas 2050) et d\u00e9lestages.\n\nPousser les pays favorisant les producteurs \"intermittents\" \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir et financer d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent (et pas plus tard) le back up n'est donc pas compl\u00e8tement sans fondement..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6878984498118213634,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6878984498646716416,urn:li:activity:6878984498646716416,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 42, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6878984498646716416,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", 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paris-normandie.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.paris-normandie.fr/id260558/article/2021-12-15/contournement-est-de-rouen-letat-donne-son-feu-vert-malgre-lopposition-de-la" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Contournement Est de Rouen : l\u2019\u00c9tat donne son feu vert malgr\u00e9 l\u2019opposition de la M\u00e9tropole" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6878745458555052032,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A intervalles r\u00e9guliers, l'ex\u00e9cutif fran\u00e7ais rappelle que la France est pleinement engag\u00e9e dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Ca, ce sont les discours. Puis on passe aux actes... et beaucoup change. \n\nD'o\u00f9 viennent les \u00e9missions domestiques de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre en France ? Tout d'abord des transports. On devrait donc se dire que si le but est de faire baisser les \u00e9missions des transports, une des choses que nous allons faire est d'\u00e9viter de donner envie aux fran\u00e7ais de rouler encore plus en voiture \u00e0 p\u00e9trole.\n\nBen non. Selon Paris Normandie, Jean Castex vient de d\u00e9clarer que \"C\u2019est le r\u00f4le de l\u2019\u00c9tat de soutenir des infrastructures de transport qui ont un impact concret pour la vie quotidienne des Fran\u00e7aises et des Fran\u00e7ais. Je le fais pour les routes, partout en France (...)\". \n\nIl faut baisser les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre li\u00e9es aux transports, mais on va le faire en rajoutant des routes. Il faut baisser l'artificialisation, mais on va le faire en rajoutant des routes. L'Etat va proposer aux rouennais (et aux autres) de circuler plus facilement en voiture, pour ensuite leur expliquer que ca serait bien qu'ils utilisent moins de moyens individuels, gourmands en ressources et en \u00e9nergie (quelle qu'elle soit).\n\nMais en fait Matignon a tout pr\u00e9vu : \"La bascule des v\u00e9hicules thermiques vers l\u2019\u00e9lectrique change la donne. \u00c0 terme on sera sur des voitures d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es donc l\u2019impact d\u2019un projet routier est moindre que par le pass\u00e9\".\n\n\"moindre\" ce n'est malheureusement pas \"align\u00e9 avec les 5% de baisse des \u00e9missions qu'il faut enclencher demain matin pour ne pas franchir la limite des 2\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement plan\u00e9taire\". \n\nA quand une impossibilit\u00e9 de construire toute nouvelle infrastructure sans avoir fait la preuve que cette derni\u00e8re est bien compatible avec ce rythme de baisse des \u00e9missions ? D\u00e9sormais ne devrait-on pas conditionner la d\u00e9claration d'utilit\u00e9 publique \u00e0 la production d'une \u00e9tude s\u00e9rieuse (non critiqu\u00e9e par l'Autorit\u00e9 Environnementale) montrant que le projet est \"compatible accord de Paris\" ? Car des contournement routiers justifi\u00e9s par le gain de confort du aux automobilistes, il n'y en a pas qu'\u00e0 Rouen...\n\nL'autre alternative pour retrouver de la coh\u00e9rence est de faire comme Trump : acter une bonne fois pour toute que l'accord de Paris, l'Elys\u00e9e et Matignon s'en fichent. En fait, c'est la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 en mati\u00e8re de d\u00e9cisions concr\u00e8tes de l'Etat pour les infrastructures de transport. La justification de construire de nouveaux ouvrages se base sur la valorisation \u00e9conomique du gain th\u00e9orique sur le temps de d\u00e9placement procur\u00e9 par l'ouvrage. En face on tient compte aussi de la valorisation (n\u00e9gative) des externalit\u00e9s environnementales, mais les valeurs sont cal\u00e9es pour que cet aspect l\u00e0 soit n\u00e9gligeable. C'est un choix politique puisque ces valorisations sont conventionnelles.\n\nLe discours est donc celui de la d\u00e9carbonation. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7252649831825558664)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtl.fr" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Environnement : les vagues de froid sont-elles compatibles avec le r\u00e9chauffement climatique ? by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/c-est-notre-planete/7900107129-environnement-les-vagues-de-froid-sont-elles-compatibles-avec-le-rechauffement-climatique" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Environnement : les vagues de froid sont-elles compatibles avec le r\u00e9chauffement climatique ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6878377740333068288,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a deux semaines environ, le Nord de la Scandinavie, la Russie et l'Alaska ont exp\u00e9riment\u00e9 des records de froid pour un mois de d\u00e9cembre (https://lnkd.in/eUVZ3iqG ). \n\nAlors quoi : le climat se r\u00e9chauffe et pourtant on se les g\u00e8le ? Dans cette livraison hebdomadaire pour RTL, j'essaie d'expliquer pourquoi ce paradoxe n'en est qu'en apparence. Le r\u00e9chauffement climatique va, au moins \"un certain temps\", favoriser des incursions d'air tr\u00e8s froid aux moyennes latitudes comme il y en a eu une r\u00e9cemment, ou comme il y en a eu une au Texas en f\u00e9vrier dernier. Et cela est parfaitement compatible avec des records de chaud \u00e0 d'autres moments.\n\nIl va aussi favoriser les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts dus aux gel\u00e9es tardives. Avec une v\u00e9g\u00e9tation qui se r\u00e9veille plus t\u00f4t en moyenne, un \u00e9pisode de gel survenant au m\u00eame moment qu'avant trouvera des plantes plus vuln\u00e9rables puisque tout aura bourgeonn\u00e9. M\u00e9t\u00e9o France revient sur l'\u00e9pisode de 2021 : https://lnkd.in/eJU9DAda \n\nUn climat qui se r\u00e9chauffe va donc parfois... nous donner des sueurs froides au vrai sens du terme." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6878377740333068288,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6878377740781834240,urn:li:activity:6878377740781834240,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 18, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6878377740781834240,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6878377740781834240,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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bourgeons durables dans des racines financiaris\u00e9es\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6878039231688704000,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 163, "length": 18, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Christophe", "lastName": "Revelli", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAbMbz8B72VtVtrc9HU7kCCqSFnRkVaoqu8", "occupation": "Professor of Sustainable Finance and Impact Investing @Kedge BS", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:114061119", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAAbMbz8B72VtVtrc9HU7kCCqSFnRkVaoqu8", "publicIdentifier": "christophe-revelli-71324732", "trackingId": "x0t8Q++iQBSNeyU0bk/OWw==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Dans une interview pour L'Info Durable, un enseignant \u00e0 Kedge Business School (donc historiquement pas un repaire de d\u00e9croissantistes en partance pour le Larzac), Christophe Revelli, rappelle que la \"finance durable\" est malheureusement trop souvent un habillage de circonstance pour donner l'impression que la finance \"normale\" est devenue durable. On pourra discuter tel ou tel point technique \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans cet interview, mais mon propos n'est pas l\u00e0. \n\nLe point int\u00e9ressant est que la personne qui critique les m\u00e9thodes trop souvent employ\u00e9es dans le monde financier pour se peindre en vert enseigne dans une \u00e9cole dite \"de commerce\". De ce fait, il est probable qu'il apprenne \u00e0 ses \u00e9tudiants \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper un sens critique, c'est-\u00e0-dire leur apprendre \u00e0 voir si le comportement des acteurs d'u secteur est concr\u00e8tement en phase avec les objectifs affich\u00e9s.\n\nPour la collectivit\u00e9, acqu\u00e9rir cette comp\u00e9tence est une excellente chose. Cela signifie que se multiplient les professionnels qui gardent en permanence du recul sur ce qu'ils font, \u00e9vitent de se leurrer eux-m\u00eames \u00e0 d\u00e9faut d'\u00eatre d\u00e9j\u00e0 parfaitement \"l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il faut\", et surtout sont aptes \u00e0 concevoir ou utiliser des outils et m\u00e9thodes qui permettent de comprendre o\u00f9 nous en sommes par rapport au probl\u00e8me et non juste de se rassurer \u00e0 bon compte.\n\nMais cette orientation a un inconv\u00e9nient potentiel : par construction, elle barre la route \u00e0 l'embauche (en tous cas pas sur la base de ce sens critique) chez les acteurs qui ne veulent surtout pas de la coh\u00e9rence, mais juste donner le change, avec des m\u00e9thodes faites pour laisser croire que tout est sous contr\u00f4le, alors que le probl\u00e8me reste inchang\u00e9.\n\nEt tant que l'\u00e9conomie restent \u00e0 dominante \"pas durable\", ces acteurs sont majoritaires. La quadrature du cercle se pr\u00e9sente donc ainsi : dans le domaine financier, comment faire pour former des \u00e9tudiants utilisant des m\u00e9thodes pertinentes, puis leur assurer un d\u00e9bouch\u00e9 sur ces bases quand l'essentiel du secteur n'en veut toujours pas ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6878039231688704000,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6878039232267530240,urn:li:activity:6878039232267530240,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 28, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6878039232267530240,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6878039232267530240,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", 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historique en 2021, indique l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie dans son rapport \"Coal 2021\".\n\nOn y lit que la Chine (50% de la production mondiale) pr\u00e9voit des augmentations de capacit\u00e9s mini\u00e8res et de production \u00e9lectrique au charbon pour les 4 ans \u00e0 venir, et que c'est aussi le cas de l'Inde.\n\nEt l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie de commenter en \u00e9crivant \"Global coal consumption is not on the Net Zero trajectory and is unlikely to be before 2024\". 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: A quand des Chief Impact Officers dans toutes les entreprises ? by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/leadership-management/a-quand-des-chief-impact-officers-dans-toutes-les-entreprises-1372945" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A quand des Chief Impact Officers dans toutes les entreprises\u00a0?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6877523956518191104,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'humanit\u00e9 a un probl\u00e8me avec les limites plan\u00e9taires. En r\u00e9ponse, les Nations Unies ont propos\u00e9 le concept de \"d\u00e9veloppement durable\", une esp\u00e8ce de baguette magique o\u00f9 nous pouvons \u00e0 la fois ne pas nous restreindre tout de suite (\"un d\u00e9veloppement qui satisfait les besoins de la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration actuelle\") sans ob\u00e9rer l'envie des g\u00e9n\u00e9rations futures de ne pas se restreindre (\"sans compromettre ceux des g\u00e9n\u00e9rations futures\"). A bien y regarder, c'est un oxymore : https://lnkd.in/e99RRmJ\n\nNous avons nomm\u00e9 des personnes en charge du d\u00e9veloppement durable dans toutes les grandes entreprises. Est-ce que cela a chang\u00e9 la trajectoire de ces derni\u00e8res ? Les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre ont progress\u00e9 \u00e0 la m\u00eame vitesse avant la cr\u00e9ation de ces fonctions qu'apr\u00e8s, de m\u00eame que pour la d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, l'\u00e9rosion de la biodiversit\u00e9, la d\u00e9gradation des sols ou l'\u00e9talement urbain.\n\nIl est maintenant question de cr\u00e9er des \"chief impact officer\". Est-ce que le r\u00e9sultat sera diff\u00e9rent ? En fait, sans red\u00e9finition bien plus large de l'espace que doivent occuper nos activit\u00e9s productives mon\u00e9tis\u00e9es, cette fonction deviendra trop souvent celle de \"chief greenwashing officer\", comme une partie des responsables du d\u00e9veloppement durable en entreprise le sont devenus \u00e0 leur corps d\u00e9fendant.\n\nNous n'aimons pas nous remettre en question. Avant m\u00eame de savoir si c'est une bonne ou une mauvaise id\u00e9e, c'est un fait. D'exp\u00e9rience, lorsqu'une entreprise d\u00e9couvre, en r\u00e9alisant pour la premi\u00e8re fois un exercice de comptabilit\u00e9 environnementale, que son activit\u00e9 la met structurellement \u00e0 risque en cas de \"transition \u00e9cologique\", la r\u00e9action la plus courante n'est pas de d\u00e9cider s\u00e9ance tenante de changer de portefeuille de produits, de march\u00e9s, de comp\u00e9tences, quoi qu'il en coute sur le plan des performances \u00e9conomiques (et m\u00eame si le CA doit baisser), parce que \"c'est bon pour l'environnement\".\n\nLa r\u00e9action la plus courante est de continuer comme avant, en cherchant bien si on ne peut pas se dire que, au fond, l'activit\u00e9 est quand m\u00eame contributive \u00e0 la transition (le dernier secteur en date a avoir beaucoup communiqu\u00e9 sur ce th\u00e8me est le digital). CIO ou pas CIO...\n\nL'exemple de la personne en photo illustre bien le propos. Elle travaille dans une entreprise qui s'appelle Contentsquare. Cette derni\u00e8re a pour objet (cf leur site : https://contentsquare.com/ ) de \"helps companies understand hidden customer behaviors\". En gros ils font du ciblage marketing. Question : \u00e0 quoi sert un \"CIO\" dans une entreprise dont l'ADN est d'aider des entreprises qui vendent des produits \u00e0 en vendre plus ?\n\nLa seule mani\u00e8re d'avoir \"de l'impact\" au bon niveau est de mettre la totalit\u00e9 de l'entreprise en conformit\u00e9 avec un monde o\u00f9 les flux physiques baissent structurellement. Et cela demande que tout le comex y voit une limite non d\u00e9passable, \u00e0 commencer par le/la patron(ne). Pour le moment, nous n'y sommes pas." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6877523956518191104,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6877523957164109824,urn:li:activity:6877523957164109824,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 109, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6877523957164109824,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6877523957164109824,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6877523957164109824", 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7959477678274251033)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "hautconseilclimat.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: COP26 : Implications et opportunit\u00e9s pour la politique climatique de la France \u2014 Haut Conseil pour le Climat by hautconseilclimat.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.hautconseilclimat.fr/publications/cop26-implications-et-opportunites-pour-la-politique-climatique-de-la-france/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "COP26 : Implications et opportunit\u00e9s pour la politique climatique de la France \u2014 Haut Conseil pour le Climat" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6877151725258645504,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Haut conseil pour le climat propose une analyse du bilan de la COP 26. Au-del\u00e0 du fait de r\u00e9p\u00e9ter que nous ne sommes pas dans les clous question engagements pris par rapport \u00e0 ce qui permettrait de limiter le r\u00e9chauffement \u00e0 1,5 ou m\u00eame 2\u00b0C (\u00e9l\u00e9vation de temp\u00e9rature pour laquelle les canicules s\u00e9culaires deviennent d\u00e9cennales, une bonne partie de la for\u00eat fran\u00e7aise meurt, et les sols europ\u00e9ens perdent 20% d'humidit\u00e9), le document publi\u00e9 par le HCC fait un inventaire des \"initiatives\" sectorielles lanc\u00e9es pendant la COP.\n\nIl ne faut cependant pas se leurrer : de par son fonctionnement, une COP ne peut rien faire d'autre que d'ent\u00e9riner ce que les pays ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de faire chez eux, pour des raisons d'int\u00e9r\u00eat domestique.\n\nAucune COP ne r\u00e8glera \"de l'ext\u00e9rieur\" un probl\u00e8me que nous ne voulons pas r\u00e9gler de l'int\u00e9rieur. Penser que la COP va \u00eatre un succ\u00e8s alors que les pays procrastinent sur le plan domestique, c'est penser que l'on peut faire une bonne \u00e9quipe de rugby avec des gens qui ne veulent pas jouer au rugby et ne s'entra\u00eenent pas \u00e0 ce jeu.\n\nPar ailleurs, les implications \u00e9conomiques de la r\u00e9duction massive des \u00e9missions (fin de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 fossile = forte contraction de l'\u00e9conomie \"physique\") ne sont toujours pas comprises et/ou accept\u00e9es par l'essentiel des protagonistes. On se rappelle de cette r\u00e9plique c\u00e9l\u00e8bre : \"sur un malentendu, ca peut marcher\". Malheureusement pas avec la physique." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6877151725258645504,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6877151725782933504,urn:li:activity:6877151725782933504,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 22, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6877151725782933504,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6877151725782933504,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6877151725782933504", 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7427097562208306724)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "science.org \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Ice shelf holding back keystone Antarctic glacier within years of failure by science.org", "actionTarget": "https://www.science.org/content/article/ice-shelf-holding-back-keystone-antarctic-glacier-within-years-failure" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ice shelf holding back keystone Antarctic glacier within years of failure" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6876897154737209344,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une partie de la superficie future du continent europ\u00e9en est peut-\u00eatre en train de se joue en ce moment du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l'Antarctique. En ce d\u00e9but d'hiver, o\u00f9 les temp\u00e9ratures (en France m\u00e9tropolitaine) sont de saison (ce qui n'est pas le cas aux USA o\u00f9 des \u00e9pisodes 20\u00b0C au-dessus des normales ont \u00e9t\u00e9 constat\u00e9s en d\u00e9cembre : https://lnkd.in/eC6MqmVq ), nous ne pensons plus spontan\u00e9ment aux cons\u00e9quences \"chaudes\" de la d\u00e9rive climatique.\n\nMalheureusement cela n'est pas suffisant pour les arr\u00eater. Un article (pas \"\u00e0 comit\u00e9 de lecture\") tout juste publi\u00e9 dans Science.org indique une faiblesse du glacier Twaites, situ\u00e9 en Antarctique de l'Ouest. Ce glacier, situ\u00e9 sur la partie de l'Antarctique qui fait face au Chili, et de la taille de la Floride, se termine par une langue flottant sur la mer. Il est par ailleurs pos\u00e9 sur un socle rocheux sous-marin, comme une large partie de l'Antarctique de l'Ouest et une partie de l'Antarctique de l'Est. \n\nSa taille et sa position en font une \"cl\u00e9 de voute\" de l'ensemble de la calotte antarctique de l'Ouest. Or, la langue terminale de ce glacier commence \u00e0 \u00eatre \"grignot\u00e9e par en dessous\" par une mer plus chaude. Cela acc\u00e9l\u00e8re le d\u00e9versement de glace dans la mer. Si l'ensemble de ce glacier venait \u00e0 se d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ger en icebergs (pas en une semaine, mais possiblement \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle du si\u00e8cle), cela pourrait par contrecoup conduire \u00e0 la dislocation de l'ensemble de l'Antarctique de l'Est. \n\nUn article r\u00e9cemment paru dans Nature (https://lnkd.in/e2T9MYUa ) indique que, pendant la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9glaciation, les processus de retrait des glaciers de cette calotte devenaient irr\u00e9versibles pour plusieurs si\u00e8cles. Les points de bascule sont encore mal identifi\u00e9s, mais la conclusion de l'article est que nous pourrions \u00eatre en train de vivre l'un d'eux, auquel cas nous avons \"sign\u00e9\" pour une hausse de plusieurs m\u00e8tres du niveau de l'oc\u00e9an quoi que nous fassions. Du reste le dernier rapport du GIEC indiquait qu'une \u00e9l\u00e9vation de l'oc\u00e9an mondial sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 15m ne pouvait \u00eatre exclue en 2300 \u00e0 cause de l'instabilit\u00e9 sur les calottes antarctique et groenlandaise.\n\nPour maximiser la probabilit\u00e9 que cela n'arrive pas, il n'y a qu'une seule chose \u00e0 faire : baisser massivement les \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires \u00e0 partir de demain matin." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6876897154737209344,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6876897155487981569,urn:li:activity:6876897155487981569,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 42, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6876897155487981569,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": 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Dans quel ordre pr\u00e9senter le probl\u00e8me ? Que faire passer comme notions en fonction de l'\u00e2ge ? Combien de temps y passer ? O\u00f9 trouver de bons supports ? (\u00e0 part une BD que je ne nommerai pas puisqu'elle est introuvable \ud83d\ude01). \n\nCes questions trouvent rarement une r\u00e9ponse dans son entourage proche quand on est en phase de d\u00e9marrage d'un enseignement, puisque par d\u00e9finition les voisins n'ont pas plus fait que soi-m\u00eame, sauf exception.\n\nCeest justement pour \"mailler les exceptions\" que The Shift Project et Les Shifters ont initi\u00e9, avec le soutien de Enseignants de la Transition, le d\u00e9veloppement du site Enseigner le Climat (https://lnkd.in/d-2rc4fw), qui a vocation \u00e0 fournir des ressources et de la mise en r\u00e9seau aux enseignants qui veulent... enseigner le climat.\n\nLes ressources sont \u00e9videmment des contenus, mais aussi des individus : conf\u00e9renciers, vacataires... \n\nNous esp\u00e9rons que cette initiative permettra d'acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer la diffusion de l'information \"de d\u00e9part\", celle sur le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter, pour que la r\u00e9flexion sur \"les 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responsables politiques misent sur l'innovation technologique." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8566777165281213960)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8566777165281213960)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "francetvinfo.fr \u2022 8 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: R\u00e9chauffement climatique : la technologie suffira-t-elle \u00e0 r\u00e9gler le probl\u00e8me ? by francetvinfo.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.francetvinfo.fr/meteo/climat/rechauffement-climatique-la-technologie-suffira-t-elle-a-regler-le-probleme_4866673.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "R\u00e9chauffement climatique : la technologie suffira-t-elle \u00e0 r\u00e9gler le probl\u00e8me ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6876408955455750144,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La \"technologie\" va-t-elle suffire \u00e0 nous \u00e9viter un r\u00e9chauffement climatique d\u00e9l\u00e9t\u00e8re, sans action sur le niveau de consommation ? Dans cet article le site de France Info rappelle \u00e0 sa mani\u00e8re l'\u00e9quation de Kaya (https://lnkd.in/gAthJhJ ), un raisonnement quantitatif - car en mati\u00e8re d'\u00e9missions il faut compter - qui met en perspective les vitesses de progression dans l'efficacit\u00e9 unitaire et l'augmentation des usages.\n\nLa conclusion est h\u00e9las n\u00e9gative. A la traditionnelle question \"pourquoi demain ne serait-il pas diff\u00e9rent d'hier ?\" on peut r\u00e9pondre que, depuis que nous avons identifi\u00e9 le r\u00e9chauffement climatique comme un probl\u00e8me (a minima la fin des ann\u00e9es 1980, date de la cr\u00e9ation du GIEC), les progr\u00e8s techniques ont \u00e9t\u00e9 importants et la hausse des \u00e9missions tout autant.\n\nFrance Info s'attarde un peu sur deux \"trouvailles\" r\u00e9centes, dont l'avion \u00e0 hydrog\u00e8ne et le \"direct air capture\" qui consiste \u00e0 essayer de pomper le CO2 directement dans l'air avec un proc\u00e9d\u00e9 technique (une alternative serait de planter des for\u00eats, mais en ce moment la couverture foresti\u00e8re baisse...).\n\nLa conclusion est h\u00e9las toujours la m\u00eame : sans sobri\u00e9t\u00e9, nous n'avons aucune chance de tenir la limite des 2\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement (nous sommes actuellement \u00e0 1,2). Et on pourrait en ajouter une autre (qui ne figure pas dans l'article) : la d\u00e9crue de la consommation mat\u00e9rielle, sur notre plan\u00e8te finie, est juste une question de temps et de conditions. Ca, ce n'est pas Kaya, c'est Meadows (https://lnkd.in/ev4N-EA )." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6876408955455750144,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6876408955933921280,urn:li:activity:6876408955933921280,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 55, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6876408955933921280,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6876408955933921280,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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\u00e9lev\u00e9 pour que leur lecture soit large.\n\nC'est donc une approche un peu inhabituelle qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 choisie pour une r\u00e9cente publication, qui ne concerne pas les avantages ou m\u00e9faits d'une trouvaille technique, mais qui d\u00e9crit en quelques pages l'\u00e9volution (inqui\u00e9tante) de la population d'insectes en France : https://lnkd.in/dEcP77_S\n\nToutes les personnes ayant d\u00e9pass\u00e9 le demi-si\u00e8cle (et parfois moins) se rappelleront sans peine que, lorsqu'elles \u00e9taient enfants, les voitures terminaient les voyages estivaux avec le pare-brise et les phares couverts d'impacts d'insectes volants en tout genre, et que les jardins p\u00e9ri-urbains (voire urbains) regorgeaient de papillons l'\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nD\u00e9sormais, il faut aller dans des endroits pr\u00e9serv\u00e9s des diverses nuisances \u00e9voqu\u00e9es dans cette note (pesticides surtout, mais aussi m\u00e9taux lourds, pollution lumineuse...), par exemple les alpages l'\u00e9t\u00e9, pour d\u00e9ranger des sauterelles en marchant dans l'herbe ou observer des papillons en quantit\u00e9. Une partie du constat document\u00e9 dans cette note est donc accessible \u00e0 tout un chacun de pas trop jeune :).\n\nComportant plus de 100 r\u00e9f\u00e9rences pour 5 pages de note, cette publication de l'OPECST se termine en insistant sur l'urgence d'agir, principalement au niveau des pratiques agricoles. Elle souligne que la r\u00e9glementation europ\u00e9enne est en retard sur l'\u00e9tat de l'art scientifique (ce qui est malheureusement toujours le cas, une r\u00e9glementation pr\u00e9c\u00e8de rarement la connaissance d'un inconv\u00e9nient !), mais qu'il existe un levier d'action aujourd'hui insuffisamment employ\u00e9 : l'\u00e9co-conditionnalit\u00e9 des aides de la politique agricole commune.\n\nCette recommandation n'est pas nouvelle. 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Le m\u00e9rite en revient probablement pour partie \u00e0 son pr\u00e9sident, C\u00e9dric Villani, qui s'exprime de plus en plus sur des sujets environnementaux." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6876061295620190208,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6876061296387747840,urn:li:activity:6876061296387747840,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 91, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6876061296387747840,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6876061296387747840,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7123942607431807173)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "bloomberg.com \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Sustainable Investing Is Mostly About Sustaining Corporations by bloomberg.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-what-is-esg-investing-msci-ratings-focus-on-corporate-bottom-line/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Sustainable Investing Is Mostly About Sustaining Corporations" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6875730822868066304,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 2827, "length": 16, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:11435106", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:11435106", "name": "Carbon4 Finance", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1626269325997?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=3ABm7OMkx3C-lCTZ0nzLNwolAvSOdCzmXAmru5OGoNs", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1626269325997?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=BH2dPvm6L3J2WTdLoIHnY84SpgLWZZ1_En8Q1Ppak6Q", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1626269325997?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=KNMwKZHCJ3dtlDJdUTurpEbxpfYk5LW3dEbsOvBcUBU", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQG_i3N_cce19w/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "carbon4finance", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:11435106", "trackingId": "OxRdcU73RPGQRl3IBd3nKA==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Le site Bloomberg BusinessWeek se fend d'un article tr\u00e8s s\u00e9v\u00e8re sur les indices ESG (sigle d\u00e9signant des investissements comportant des crit\u00e8res environnementaux, sociaux ou de gouvernance) propos\u00e9s par MSCI. \n\nMSCI est le plus gros fournisseur d'indices dans le monde. Un indice d\u00e9signe une mani\u00e8re de constituer un portefeuille d'actions et/ou d'obligations qui ob\u00e9it \u00e0 des r\u00e8gles pr\u00e9cises. Par exemple le CAC 40 est un indice, et la r\u00e8gle est qu'il agr\u00e8ge les actions des 40 plus grosses capitalisations de la bourse de Paris. Ces indices sont achet\u00e9s par des gestionnaires d'actifs qui suivent les r\u00e8gles de constitution, en \u00e9change de quoi ils r\u00e9mun\u00e8rent le fournisseur d'indices.\n\nD'habitude, la presse sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9e du monde financier a plut\u00f4t tendance \u00e0 \"passer les plats\" en ce qui concerne le caract\u00e8re ESG des indices. Dit autrement, d\u00e8s qu'un gestionnaire d'actifs dit qu'il fait de l'ESG, la presse du secteur le r\u00e9p\u00e8te sans que personne n'aille mettre son nez dans les m\u00e9thodes.\n\nIl est donc tout \u00e0 fait inattendu de voir Bloomberg critiquer vertement MSCI en expliquant que ses m\u00e9thodes ESG ne sont pas du tout raccord avec la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 des probl\u00e8mes \u00e0 traiter.\n\nTout d'abord, Bloomberg explique que les indices ESG de MSCI ne rassemblent pas des entreprises qui ont un faible impact sur l'environnement, mais des entreprises qui sont faiblement \u00e0 risque r\u00e9glementaire pour leurs impacts. \n\nEnsuite, ces indices sont trop peu discriminants : 90% des entreprises du SP 500 se retrouvent dans un indice ESG de MSCI ! Cela laisse \u00e9videmment penser que ces indices sont avant tout destin\u00e9s \u00e0 peindre en vert une situation inchang\u00e9e...\n\nBloomberg explique \u00e9galement que MSCI a r\u00e9cemment am\u00e9lior\u00e9 la note ESG de 155 entreprises alors m\u00eame que ces derni\u00e8res n'ont rien chang\u00e9, ou ne reportent pas la totalit\u00e9 de leur empreinte carbone, ou ont une activit\u00e9 difficilement compatible avec un monde peu carbon\u00e9....\n\nBloomberg rel\u00e8ve aussi que, dans le risque cr\u00e9dit, les m\u00e9thodes des grandes agences de notation sont tr\u00e8s voisines, alors que dans le domaine de l'ESG les m\u00e9thodes diff\u00e8rent fortement d'un fournisseur de donn\u00e9es \u00e0 l'autre. Cela a une cons\u00e9quence \u00e9vidente : tout acteur financier trouvera toujours, en cherchant bien, une m\u00e9thode qui lui permettra de se proclamer \"dans les clous\".\n\nBloomberg plaide pour que, sur la partie climat, les analyses des entreprises :\n- soient bas\u00e9es sur les \u00e9missions sur l'ensemble de la chaine de valeur (le fameux scope 3 - voir https://lnkd.in/djQW4YAk )\n- permettent de quantifier l'impact d'une entreprise, et non juste si elle est \u00e0 risque r\u00e9glementaire \u00e0 br\u00e8ve \u00e9ch\u00e9ance (mais avec la bonne m\u00e9thode on peut faire impact et risque ; c'est ce que revendique Carbon Impact Analytics dont le guide m\u00e9thodo vient tout juste d'\u00eatre mis \u00e0 jour : https://lnkd.in/evXqpExr) \n\nPromis, Carbon4 Finance n'a rien souffl\u00e9 \u00e0 l'oreille de Bloomberg pour qu'il sugg\u00e8re exactement ce que nous faisons !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": 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donne (en vert et violet) l'\u00e9volution des \"puits de carbone\" en France. Il s'agit des processus g\u00e9r\u00e9s par l'homme qui permettent de soustraire du CO2 \u00e0 l'atmosph\u00e8re. On va y trouver :\n- l'augmentation du stock de for\u00eats (parce que le carbone passe de l'air dans le bois et les racines via la photosynth\u00e8se)\n- la conversion de cultures en prairies (parce que l'arr\u00eat du labour augmente la quantit\u00e9 de carbone dans le sol).\n\nA l'inverse, la conversion des prairies en cultures diminue le stock de carbone dans le sol (et donc conduit \u00e0 des \u00e9missions, en moutarde sur le graphique ci-dessous), et l'urbanisation diminue aussi le stock de carbone dans le sol qui se trouve sous la surface imperm\u00e9abilis\u00e9e.\n\nDans la Strat\u00e9gie Nationale Bas Carbone, notre pays compte sur un doublement du puits de carbone d'ici \u00e0 2050 pour \"compenser\" les \u00e9missions territoriales r\u00e9siduelles. Cela suppose que le changement climatique ne va pas d\u00e9stocker le carbone des for\u00eats (mort des arbres par stress hydrique ou thermique, incendies) et que les sols agricoles deviennent globalement un puits aussi (arr\u00eat du labour, haies et agroforesterie).\n\nLe graphique ci-dessous nous dit que cela ne va pas se faire d'un claquement de doigts. La tendance depuis le milieu des ann\u00e9es 2000 est un affaiblissement significatif du puits forestier, et par ailleurs la contribution de l'ensemble des sols agricoles continue d'\u00eatre une \u00e9mission nette. \n\nAu total, le secteur UTCATF (Utilisation des Terres, Changement d\u2019Affectation des Terres et Foresterie) est pass\u00e9 d'une s\u00e9questration annuelle d'environ 45 millions de tonnes de CO2 par an en 2008 \u00e0 30 actuellement (les \u00e9missions territoriales sont d'environ 400 millions de tonnes de CO2 \u00e9quivalent actuellement).\n\nDans un monde soumis \u00e0 des injonctions \u00e9conomiques avant toute chose, augmenter fortement les puits n'est pas rentable. Cela ne pourra se faire que parce que la collectivit\u00e9 d\u00e9cide que c'est important et paye en cons\u00e9quence. Nous avons quelque part le m\u00eame sujet domestique que le Br\u00e9sil avec l'Amazonie : la for\u00eat coup\u00e9e rapporte plus que la for\u00eat sur pied, donc si le seul crit\u00e8re est \u00e9conomique on coupe.\n\nAugmenter les puits en France devra relever d'une injonction un peu plus forte qu'un simple chiffre dans un document de cadrage qui n'a aucune port\u00e9e contraignante." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6875508732344836096,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6875508733091418112,urn:li:activity:6875508733091418112,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 47, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6875508733091418112,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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Polichinelle : l'ex\u00e9cutif s'appr\u00eate \u00e0 annoncer la mise en chantier d'EPR en France. Lors qu'un m\u00e9nage fait construire un logement, il se passe de l'ordre de l'ann\u00e9e (parfois un peu plus !) entre le moment o\u00f9 la d\u00e9cision est prise et le moment o\u00f9 les meubles peuvent \u00eatre install\u00e9s.\n\nPour une usine ou un h\u00f4pital le d\u00e9lai est parfois un peu plus long. Et pour une centrale nucl\u00e9aire ? Cet article de la SFEN explique pourquoi une d\u00e9cision prise aujourd'hui changera physiquement la donne... dans 10 \u00e0 13 ans : https://lnkd.in/e3JFD6Xq\n\nIl y a en effet plusieurs ann\u00e9es entre la d\u00e9cision et le premier \"coup de pioche\" : \u00e9tudes, consultations publiques, et processus d'autorisation demandent de 4 \u00e0 5 ans, sans lesquelles il n'y a pas de chantier qui d\u00e9marre.\n\nCe genre de d\u00e9lai n'est pas rare dans le domaine des grandes installations \u00e9lectriques. Entre la d\u00e9cision de construire le barrage de Serre-Pon\u00e7on et la premi\u00e8re \u00e9lectricit\u00e9, il s'est \u00e9coul\u00e9 12 ans, \u00e0 une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 le dirigisme d'Etat \u00e9tait un peu plus marqu\u00e9 qu'aujourd'hui, et les \u00e9tapes de \"d\u00e9bat pr\u00e9alable\" bien plus courtes.\n\nC'est pour cela que dans ce domaine de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, devenu vital puisque sans \u00e9lectrons nous n'avons plus de monnaie (les transactions mon\u00e9taires sont pour l'essentiel des transactions \u00e9lectroniques) ou plus de communications, l'anticipation est le ma\u00eetre mot. Une situation de d\u00e9faut de l'appareil productif ne se corrige pas facilement \u00e0 bref d\u00e9lai.\n\nM\u00eame l'option \"on fera du gaz parce que ca va vite et tant pis pour le CO2\" ne sera pas \u00e9ternellement ouverte : le gaz - \u00e9nergie fossile donc \u00e9puisable - n'est pas perp\u00e9tuel. 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Le dernier opus de la s\u00e9rie \"\u00e9tat du nucl\u00e9aire dans le monde\" s'ach\u00e8ve au Moyen Orient et en Asie du Sud-Est (Inde comprise), avec un descriptif de l\u00e0 o\u00f9 en sont les pays concern\u00e9s.\n\nVous d\u00e9couvrirez ainsi que le pouvoir philippin, d\u00e9favorable au nucl\u00e9aire civil, envisage n\u00e9anmoins la cr\u00e9ation d'une autorit\u00e9 de s\u00fbret\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire ; que l'Inde, avec 22 r\u00e9acteurs, produit... 2,6% de son \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 avec du nucl\u00e9aire ; que le Vietnam a envisag\u00e9 du nucl\u00e9aire avant de construire... du gaz et du charbon.\n\nCes fiches pays ne comportent ni recommandation ni souhait. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Christian Gollier : \u00ab Nous vivons sur l'utopie d'une transition \u00e9cologique heureuse \u00bb by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/societe/christian-gollier-nous-vivons-sur-lutopie-dune-transition-ecologique-heureuse-1371086" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Christian Gollier\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0Nous vivons sur l'utopie d'une transition \u00e9cologique heureuse\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6874634172405690368,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Directeur de la Toulouse School of Economics est interview\u00e9 dans Les Echos. La partie attendue de son propos est son plaidoyer en faveur de la taxe carbone, doubl\u00e9e d'une taxe carbone aux fronti\u00e8res.\n\nSur ce point, il a partiellement raison : une taxe est utile, mais ce n'est pas la totalit\u00e9 d'une politique. Et surtout la pertinence est tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rente selon que l'on s'adresse aux particuliers ou aux entreprises.\n\nLes particuliers anticipent peu. Nous sommes rares \u00e0 calculer un cout total sur la dur\u00e9e de vie \u00e0 l'achat d'un v\u00e9hicule ou d'une chaudi\u00e8re, en int\u00e9grant un \"prix croissant du carbone\". C'est bien pour cela que les hausses rapides de prix du carbone provoquent des remous : nous faisons alors face \u00e0 des d\u00e9penses qui n'ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 anticip\u00e9es.\n\nDe ce fait, la hausse du prix du carbone pour les particuliers ne peut \u00eatre que lente : seule une mont\u00e9e tr\u00e8s progressive du prix est socialement acceptable, pour laisser le temps aux individus d'avoir des alternatives (qui doivent par ailleurs \"arriver sur le march\u00e9\", ce qui prend du temps). C'est \u00e9videmment un probl\u00e8me quand nous sommes dans une course contre la montre.\n\nC'est diff\u00e9rent pour les entreprises : ces derni\u00e8res - surtout les grosses \u00e9mettrices, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement des grandes entreprises - ont les moyens d'embaucher des arm\u00e9es de consultants, qui vont faire des calculs dans tous les sens pour savoir o\u00f9 se trouvent les points de bascule qui rendent telle ou telle alternative \u00e9conomiquement pertinente. \n\nPar ailleurs, pour ces m\u00eames gros \u00e9metteurs un \"prix du carbone\" va \u00eatre significatif dans leur compte de r\u00e9sultat, ce qui va les motiver fortement \u00e0 trouver des alternatives \"de rupture\". Un exemple classique est la taxe carbone appliqu\u00e9e aux centrales anglaises, qui a beaucoup jou\u00e9 dans le basculement du charbon au gaz outre-Manche.\n\nLa taxe carbone est donc un outil qui peut rapidement changer la donne pour certaines entreprises, mais c'est beaucoup moins vrai pour les particuliers, pour qui la r\u00e9glementation permet d'aller bien plus vite, parce qu'elle dit quoi faire au lieu de dire ce qu'il ne faut pas faire.\n\nIncidemment la \"taxe carbone aux fronti\u00e8res\" ne serait pas une fiscalit\u00e9 stricto sensu en Europe. La fiscalit\u00e9 est une comp\u00e9tence exclusive des Etats membres, et donc l'Union ne peut rien faire sans unanimit\u00e9 des membres (unanimit\u00e9 qui n'existe jamais). Le m\u00e9canisme serait une extension du syst\u00e8me de quotas (par exemple les importateurs devraient se procurer des quotas au prorata du \"contenu en carbone\" des importations).\n\nLa partie plus inattendue du discours de Gollier est l'affirmation que la transition ne sera pas \"que du bonheur sur tous les tableaux\". Cela rejoint un peu le propos de ceux qui disent qu'il n'y aura pas de croissance verte. L'argument n'est pas le m\u00eame - et Gollier ne dit rien sur la croissance - mais il y a un point commun : cette transition va nous demander de gros efforts. Qu'il y ait une grosse satisfaction \u00e0 la cl\u00e9 ne doit pas masquer cette r\u00e9alit\u00e9." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6874634172405690368,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6874634173303275520,urn:li:activity:6874634173303275520,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 44, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6874634173303275520,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6874634173303275520,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7080181844464718394)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theshiftproject.org \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: D\u00e9carbonons la Culture ! : le Shift publie son rapport final by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/decarboner-culture-rapport-2021/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "D\u00e9carbonons la Culture ! : le Shift publie son rapport final" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6874357328066424832,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Qui ne se souvient de cette phrase mainte fois entendue, qui est que pour faire de la croissance d\u00e9mat\u00e9rialis\u00e9e, il faut favoriser les visites au mus\u00e9e ? Si cela est vrai, alors la culture ne saurait engendrer des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre.\n\nSauf que... pour aller au mus\u00e9e, au cin\u00e9ma, au th\u00e9\u00e2tre, au festival, il faut parfois - horreur ! - prendre une voiture, et parfois - comble de l'horreur ! - un avion. Une large partie des visiteurs du Louvre (hors covid) sont a\u00e9roport\u00e9s, et un Festival comme les Vieilles Charrues engendre aussi son lot de transport routier (pour les visiteurs ou le mat\u00e9riel) ou a\u00e9roport\u00e9 (pour une partie des artistes).\n\nLes visiteurs des mus\u00e9es comm\u00e9morant le d\u00e9barquement en Normandie sont par la force des choses des am\u00e9ricains ou des canadiens qui ne traversent pas l'Atlantique en pneumatique \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive comme Bombard, et les japonais crois\u00e9s au Mont Saint Michel ou \u00e0 la Tour Eiffel ne sont pas venus en Transsib\u00e9rien. \n\nDans la culture, il y a aussi l'audiovisuel. Historiquement c'\u00e9tait les tournages (d\u00e9placements, mat\u00e9riel, repas, location de lieux divers...) et surtout la diffusion (fabrication des salles de cin\u00e9ma puis des t\u00e9l\u00e9s ; d\u00e9placements des personnes pour le cin\u00e9ma), et d\u00e9sormais c'est un gros morceau du num\u00e9rique (la vid\u00e9o \u00e0 la demande - porno compris - fait les trois quarts du trafic internet en gros). Toute personne qui visionne un bout de s\u00e9rie ou qui joue \u00e0 un jeu sur son smartphone dans le bus utilise un \"service culturel\" au sens \u00e9conomique.\n\nCe secteur est donc truff\u00e9 (d'\u00e9missions) pire qu'un boudin blanc (du vrai champignon). C'est pour cela que, dans le cadre du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise, nous avons consacr\u00e9 un rapport entier \u00e0 la chose, rapport qui vient tout juste d'\u00eatre publi\u00e9.\n\nLisez le ! Ca \u00e9mettra un peu - fatalement - mais on esp\u00e8re que ca permettra de r\u00e9duire ensuite en se posant les bonnes questions.\n\nNB : en fin de page de pr\u00e9sentation du rapport il y a les mails des auteurs et des personnes qui peuvent faire une pr\u00e9sentation personnalis\u00e9e aux acteurs (c'est le cas de le dire) int\u00e9ress\u00e9s du secteur." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6874357328066424832,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6874357328620068864,urn:li:activity:6874357328620068864,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 25, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6874357328620068864,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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Le taux de r\u00e9ponses positives le plus bas pour cette question se trouve dans le nucl\u00e9aire, qui est le secteur qui pr\u00e9sente donc le plus grand contraste entre l'opinion publique et l'avis des salari\u00e9s.\n\nCette envie d'aller voir ailleurs est-elle due avant tout \u00e0 une prise de conscience des r\u00e9alit\u00e9s environnementales ? Pas que. Si l'on regarde les plus jeunes, qui sont a priori les plus susceptibles d'\u00eatre sensibles \u00e0 cet aspect des choses, l'absence de reconnaissance sociale est invoqu\u00e9 par 20% de ceux qui veulent changer, mais le \"mode de vie\" (beaucoup de salari\u00e9s du secteur p\u00e9trolier travaillent loin de chez eux, et avec des rythmes de travail qui ressemblent parfois \u00e0 ceux de la marine marchande) est invoqu\u00e9 par 25%, et les \"salaires trop bas\" (\u00e9tonnant pour le p\u00e9trole ! Mais dans les pays producteurs il est possible qu'il y ait des cohortes de gens mal pay\u00e9s, ce qui n'est pas vraiment le cas chez Total...) par 21%.\n\nL'une des difficult\u00e9s de la transition est de maintenir dans les secteur qui doivent d\u00e9cro\u00eetre en douceur \"juste ce qu'il faut de comp\u00e9tences\" pour que ces secteurs continuent de fonctionner tout en diminuant. 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}, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "D\u00e9carboner nos activit\u00e9s, est-ce bon pour l'emploi ? Ben... ca d\u00e9pend, mais le sujet est central. En effet, une des pr\u00e9occupations que nous avons tou(te)s, c'est bien de garder un emploi, voire de l'am\u00e9liorer. Si nous devons \u00eatre persuad\u00e9s que la d\u00e9carbonation du pays est une mauvaise affaire pour l'activit\u00e9, ca ne va \u00e9videmment pas simplifier les choses pour aller de l'avant.\n\nC'est pour cette raison que l'emploi est un sujet central dans le cadre du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise. Nous n'avons pas pris le probl\u00e8me sous l'angle \"aurons nous l'argent pour payer les gens si on fait diff\u00e9remment ?\" mais \"de quels emplois, prenant place dans quels secteurs, aurions nous besoin pour mener la d\u00e9carbonation au bon rythme ?\".\n\nC'est le r\u00e9sultat de cet exercice que nous vous proposons de d\u00e9couvrir le 9 d\u00e9cembre prochain, au cours d'un webinaire pendant lequel il y aura d'abord une pr\u00e9sentation du travail que nous avons fait sur les besoins en emplois, puis une table ronde associant les partenaires sociaux, \u00e0 savoir Patrick Martin (vice-pr\u00e9sident d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9 du MEDEF), V\u00e9ronique Martin et Angeline Barth,\u00a0Secr\u00e9taires conf\u00e9d\u00e9rales de la CGT, et Beatrice Clicq, Secr\u00e9taire conf\u00e9d\u00e9rale \u00e0 FO.\n\nIl s'agira non seulement de se demander de quels emplois nous avons besoin, mais aussi comment faire pour mettre en place et piloter le changement souhait\u00e9. \n\nA l'heure de la d\u00e9carbonation, comment revisiter la politique de l'emploi, vieux serpent de mer dans notre pays ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6873673071958487040,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6873673072503734272,urn:li:activity:6873673072503734272,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 10, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6873673072503734272,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6873673072503734272,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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ponts, l'action climatique prend un nouveau visage : celui d'un p\u00e8re en gr\u00e8ve de la faim.\n\nDepuis 35 jours Guillermo Fernandez, citoyen suisse, ne s'alimente plus, et a fait le voeu de ne recommencer qu'\u00e0 une condition : que le parlement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral suisse re\u00e7oive une formation sur les enjeux climatiques et la biodiversit\u00e9 donn\u00e9e par des scientifiques et bas\u00e9e sur la documentation produite par le GIEC, l\u2019IPBES et l\u2019OMM. \n\nSa revendication inclut que la pr\u00e9sentation des faits \u00e0 l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e f\u00e9d\u00e9rale soit enregistr\u00e9e et rendue publique, \"afin que les citoyens soient au m\u00eame niveau d\u2019information que leurs repr\u00e9sentants\".\n\nD'aucun(e)s se diront probablement qu'il est \u00e9tonnant de risquer de mourir tout de suite pour \u00e9viter de risquer de mourir plus tard. Sauf que cet homme ne justifie pas son action par la peur de devoir affronter un avenir difficile : c'est celui de ses enfants qui est invoqu\u00e9 (d'o\u00f9 le slogan \"papa on hunger strike\").\n\nCe qui est fou, dans cette histoire, ce n'est pas son geste. C'est qu'il soit n\u00e9cessaire de mettre une vie en danger pour une demande qui ne rel\u00e8ve que du simple bon sens. \n\nQuand la mati\u00e8re existe, les vulgarisateurs aussi, et qu'il est question d'un sujet qui est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme central par le monde politique, o\u00f9 est le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 passer quelques heures \u00e0 comprendre de quoi il retourne exactement ? 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6873276668451028992,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans un article publi\u00e9 sur Telos, Etienne Beeker, en charge des questions \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques \u00e0 France Strat\u00e9gie, revient sur 40 ans de politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Europe, et explique comment la conjonction de la \"lib\u00e9ralisation\" de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et du d\u00e9veloppement des modes intermittents a ouvert un espace pour le gaz russe que nous allons avoir les plus grandes difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 refermer. \n\nL'une des cons\u00e9quence de la situation que nous (nous les Etats europ\u00e9ens) avons d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment cr\u00e9\u00e9e en 40 ans est que nous n'avons pas fini de voir les prix du gaz et de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 faire du yoyo. Seul le retour \u00e0 un syst\u00e8me beaucoup plus fortement r\u00e9gul\u00e9 qu'aujourd'hui - ce qui suppose d'abandonner le dogme de \"market is good for you anywhere and anytime\", et surtout prendra du temps, alors que le temps est ce qui nous manque - permettra de conjuguer prix stables (pas n\u00e9cessairement bas cependant !) et syst\u00e8me d\u00e9carbon\u00e9.\n\nL'auteur note non sans malice que les Grands Bretons, qui ont beaucoup oeuvr\u00e9 pour cr\u00e9er de la volatilit\u00e9 dans le syst\u00e8me (ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s \"supportive\" de la d\u00e9r\u00e9gulation quand ils \u00e9taient dans l'Union sont paradoxalement ceux qui aujourd'hui ont la politique \u00e9lectrique d\u00e9carbonante la mieux construite, en acceptant de revenir \u00e0 une quasi-nationalisation de fait du syst\u00e8me avec les \"contracts for difference\".\n\nL'histoire est un perp\u00e9tuel recommencement !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": 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D'abord doucement, puis un peu plus rapidement \u00e0 la fin du 19\u00e8 et au d\u00e9but du 20\u00e8 si\u00e8cle, puis de mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s rapide apr\u00e8s la seconde guerre mondiale, avec l'arriv\u00e9e de la m\u00e9canisation et des engrais (azote, potasse, phosphates) et phytosanitaires. Mais ces auxiliaires demandent eux-m\u00eames de l'\u00e9nergie pour pouvoir \u00eatre fabriqu\u00e9s ou mis \u00e0 disposition. \n\nDans un tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressant article publi\u00e9 il y a quelques ann\u00e9es, 2 chercheurs du Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des \u00c9nergies de Demain (Paris Diderot) observent comment a \u00e9volu\u00e9 le bilan \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de l'agriculture, quand on d\u00e9duit de la production l'\u00e9nergie des intrants (engrais et m\u00e9canisation) : https://lnkd.in/dBSDZcnH\n\nLe graphique ci-dessous en r\u00e9sume l'essentiel. On voit que les cultures, exprim\u00e9es en contenu \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique (petajoules) passent de 1000 \u00e0 presque 2000 en l'espace d'un si\u00e8cle (avec des rendements qui n'augmentent plus sur les derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies). \n\nIl y a un si\u00e8cle, une grosse partie de cette production sert aux exploitations agricoles elles-m\u00eames : elle nourrit les animaux de trait et le personnel de la ferme (zone orange). La ferme d\u00e9gage un surplus (trait rouge) qui repr\u00e9sente un quart de la production brute.\n\nArrivent les engrais et la m\u00e9canisation (l'\u00e9nergie amen\u00e9e est celle repr\u00e9sent\u00e9e par la zone bleue fonc\u00e9e sous le z\u00e9ro). A ce moment on voit le surplus fortement augmenter, ce qui permet de nourrir des tas de gens qui ne sont pas sur l'exploitation, et notamment dans des villes.\n\nLes auteurs ont regard\u00e9 la \"biomasse \u00e9quivalente\" qui serait n\u00e9cessaire pour fournir cette \u00e9nergie : c'est le trait bleu clair. Dit autrement, le surplus de production est \u00e9gale au surplus d'\u00e9nergie amen\u00e9 de l'ext\u00e9rieur. \n\nLa conclusion des auteurs est \u00e9videmment tr\u00e8s perturbante : dans un monde sans combustibles fossiles, soit l'apport externe \u00e0 l'agriculture s'arr\u00eate et les rendements retombent \u00e0 ceux d'un si\u00e8cle, ce qui emp\u00eache l'agriculture de fournir la moindre \u00e9nergie \u00e0 la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 (biocarburants, biogaz), soit une partie de la biomasse est utilis\u00e9e pour faire les intrants de l'agriculture, et \u00e0 ce moment la production reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e mais le surplus agricole s'effondre.\n\nCe point de la fourniture d'\u00e9nergie par l'agriculture dans un monde sans fossiles est un des postulats extr\u00eamement os\u00e9s de la strat\u00e9gie nationale bas carbone, laquelle suppose un maintien des rendements nets dans un monde sans fossiles. Ce que disent les auteurs est que cela semble un pari intenable, sans m\u00eame parler de l'effet fortement n\u00e9gatif qu'aura le changement climatique sur le vivant." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6873201245587296256,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6873201246270984192,urn:li:activity:6873201246270984192,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 101, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6873201246270984192,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6873201246270984192,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7351293675328005407)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lemonde.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L\u2019avenir du p\u00e9trole est derri\u00e8re lui by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/blog/huet/2021/11/23/lavenir-du-petrole-est-derriere-lui/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L\u2019avenir du p\u00e9trole est derri\u00e8re lui" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6872973710643486720,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Sylvestre Huet recense le livre \"P\u00e9trole le d\u00e9clin est proche\" de Matthieu Auzanneau, livre qui fait lui-m\u00eame suite au rapport du Shift Project sur les perspectives d'approvisionnement en p\u00e9trole de l'Europe sous le seul angle de la contrainte g\u00e9ologique : https://lnkd.in/dMFCWQFw\n\nCe sujet de la contrainte p\u00e9troli\u00e8re a \u00e9t\u00e9 largement ignor\u00e9 par le monde \u00e9conomique, qui n'y voit qu'un risque d'inflation, alors que l'essentiel du probl\u00e8me n'est pas l\u00e0.\n\nEn effet, le p\u00e9trole est encore aujourd'hui indispensable au transport, donc aux \u00e9changes \u00e9conomiques, y compris entre chaque client et chaque fournisseur. A ce titre, son d\u00e9faut est certes un sujet (transitoire) pour les prix, mais surtout une limitation du premier ordre sur l'activit\u00e9. Et pour notre plus grand malheur un d\u00e9faut de p\u00e9trole ne signifie pas des prix de plus en plus hauts : il signifie un PIB de plus en plus contraint.\n\nCela ne perturbe pas plus que cela le monde politique. La commissaire europ\u00e9enne \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie n'a pas le mot \"p\u00e9trole\" dans sa lettre de mission (https://lnkd.in/dQNdX-Q ) ; notre gouvernement n'a aucune esp\u00e8ce de r\u00e9flexion avanc\u00e9e sur le comportement \u00e0 avoir en cas de d\u00e9faut subi et irr\u00e9m\u00e9diable de p\u00e9trole (ce qui est le cas de mani\u00e8re larv\u00e9e en Europe depuis 2007) ; le monde \u00e9conomique continue \u00e0 le voir comme un produit qui se consomme au lieu d'\u00eatre le premier de nos facteurs de production (https://lnkd.in/gTFCeG3 ).\n\nCela ne perturbe pas non plus les media. Encore aujourd'hui, expliquer \u00e0 un journaliste \u00e9conomique que c'est le d\u00e9faut - physique - de p\u00e9trole qui a emp\u00each\u00e9 l'\u00e9conomie europ\u00e9enne de \"repartir\" apr\u00e8s 2008 provoque souvent une grande crise d'hilarit\u00e9. \n\nEt se faire rendre raison quand le probl\u00e8me sera bien avanc\u00e9 ne sera la source que d'une satisfaction relative : l'inertie soci\u00e9tale est telle que c'est une forte anticipation dont nous avons besoin, l\u00e0 comme pour le climat. Attendre que les faits confirment le diagnostic signifie attendre une instabilit\u00e9 tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9e, qui ne sera bonne pour aucun objectif (pas plus la d\u00e9carbonation planifi\u00e9e)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6872973710643486720,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6872973711369109504,urn:li:activity:6872973711369109504,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 40, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6872973711369109504,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6872973711369109504,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00ab\u00a0Si les banques centrales ont pu sauver les \u00e9conomies, pourquoi ne le feraient-elles pas pour le r\u00e9chauf\u00adfement climatique ?\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6872573004170186752,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est un slogan qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 souvent repris depuis la crise financi\u00e8re : si les banques centrales ont pu mettre des milliers de milliards de dollars \"sur la table\" pour sauver le syst\u00e8me bancaire, il n'y a pas de raison que l'on n'y arrive pas pour le climat.\n\nIl y a \u00e9videmment du vrai dans cette histoire. Le d\u00e9but du vrai, c'est qu'il serait tout aussi l\u00e9gitime de mettre dans le mandat des banques centrales de prot\u00e9ger l'environnement - sans lequel il n'y a pas d'\u00e9conomie et pas de syst\u00e8me financier - que de prot\u00e9ger la monnaie, c'est-\u00e0-dire lutter contre l'inflation.\n\nLa cons\u00e9quence de ce premier point de vue pourrait par exemple \u00eatre que les banques centrales mettent des obligations ou au contraire des restrictions aux op\u00e9rations qu'elles font avec les banques : \n- pas d'argent pr\u00eat\u00e9 \u00e0 une banque lorsque cette derni\u00e8re donne en garantie des titres (appel\u00e9s collat\u00e9raux) qui sont \"non compatibles avec un minimum de de d\u00e9carbonation\"\n- pas d'achat d'obligations souveraines en provenance d'\u00e9tats dont e rythme de d\u00e9carbonation n'est pas conforme aux engagements qu'il prend lui-m\u00eame\n- r\u00e9alisation de mod\u00e8les r\u00e9alistes de \"stress test\" des banques sur les risques climat (pour le moment ces \"stress tests\" sont con\u00e7us pour \u00eatre faciles \u00e0 passer et non pour \u00eatre r\u00e9alistes)\n\nMais il y a aussi une part d'illusion \u00e0 bon compte dans cette affaire. Car \"sauver le climat\" n'est pas qu'une affaire d'argent. Il ne suffit pas \"d'investir l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il faut\" pour que le boulot soit fait. D\u00e9carboner l'\u00e9conomie, c'est notamment la rendre \"physiquement plus petite\" (c'est exactement cela que l'on appelle sobri\u00e9t\u00e9). Et l\u00e0, la question de savoir comment une banque centrale concourt directement \u00e0 contracter en douceur la taille de l'\u00e9conomie est probablement plus vite pos\u00e9e que r\u00e9solue." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6872573004170186752,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6872573004698673152,urn:li:activity:6872573004698673152,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 30, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6872573004698673152,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6872573004698673152,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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La \"strat\u00e9gie d'entreprise\", dans le monde dont nous sortons, qui est caract\u00e9ris\u00e9 par une expansion globale semblant sans limites, a souvent \u00e9t\u00e9 pens\u00e9e par induction, dans un contexte \"continu\" g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement appel\u00e9e \"Business As Usual\", qui ne tient pas compte de possibles contraintes physiques majeures. Or, ces derni\u00e8res vont survenir, et multiplier les obstacles \u00e0 la poursuite des tendances. 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"DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6872171025904234496,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Comment rester en bonne sant\u00e9 dans un monde qui se d\u00e9carbone ? Ce sera plus facile diront les uns : moins de combustibles fossiles, c'est moins de particules fines, de s\u00e9dentarit\u00e9 donc d'ob\u00e9sit\u00e9, de changement climatique et son cort\u00e8ge d'agressions sur les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s humaines, et j'en passe.\n\nPas si vite feront remarquer d'autres, qui noteront que l'esp\u00e9rance de vie a g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement fortement augment\u00e9 avec l'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fossile, lequel a amen\u00e9 s\u00e9curit\u00e9 alimentaire (productivit\u00e9 agricole, transports, et... relative stabilit\u00e9 politique), protection contre le froid, le chaud et l'humide (logements), et \u00e9galement un syst\u00e8me de soins sophistiqu\u00e9 (vaccins, m\u00e9dicaments, h\u00f4pital, etc).\n\nM\u00eame si c'est le deuxi\u00e8me effet qui l'a emport\u00e9 historiquement, la question de savoir comment maintenir un bon \u00e9tat de sant\u00e9 dans un monde moins dot\u00e9 de combustibles fossiles se pose, que ce soit pour des raisons climatiques, ou pour des raisons de d\u00e9crue subie des combustibles fossiles. \n\nApr\u00e8s un an et demi de travail, The Shift Project publie ses propositions pour le secteur de la sant\u00e9 dans le cadre du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise. \n\nCe secteur devra prendre sa part de mesures qui se retrouvent \"partout ailleurs\" : d\u00e9carbonation du confort thermique des b\u00e2timents et des transports ne sont en effet pas propres aux \u00e9tablissements de sant\u00e9. Mais il faudra aussi d'occuper des m\u00e9dicaments (qui font un tiers de l'empreinte du secteur), des \"dispositifs m\u00e9dicaux\" - seringues, poches, compresses, proth\u00e8ses, bref tout les consommables, qui en font 20%, des appareils d'imagerie ou encore de ce que mangent les personnes hospitalis\u00e9es.\n\nMais m\u00eame avec des mesures ambitieuses sur les aspects \"techniques et mat\u00e9riels\", cela ne suffira pas \u00e0 faire en sorte d'avoir une sant\u00e9 \"neutre en carbone\". Pour y arriver, il faudra diminuer la demande de soins, plus avoir un appareil curatif \"plus petit\". Cela signifie que la pr\u00e9vention deviendra le ma\u00eetre mot dans ce domaine. \n\nCela devrait \u00eatre facilit\u00e9 par le fait que le syst\u00e8me de soins ne d\u00e9termine que pour 10 \u00e0 20 % l\u2019\u00e9tat de sant\u00e9 de la population. Les autres d\u00e9terminants sont les comportements individuels, l\u2019environnement physique, le contexte socio-\u00e9conomique, et la constitution biologique. Il va donc falloir s'occuper s\u00e9rieusement de faire en sorte que la population n'ait pas envie de fumer ou de boire, puisse (et veuille) faire du sport, ait envie de marcher ou p\u00e9daler plut\u00f4t que conduire, ne respire pas de particules, etc. Cela sera la premi\u00e8re mesure pour concilier sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 de moyens (car il en restera \u00e9videmment) et bon \u00e9tat sanitaire." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6872171025904234496,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6872171026701144064,urn:li:activity:6872171026701144064,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 23, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6872171026701144064,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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Et si ca ne fonctionne pas vous pourrez toujours caler un meuble :)\n\nNB : plus s\u00e9rieusement, le r\u00e9approvisionnement est en imminent. Les libraires devraient \u00eatre livr\u00e9s avant la fin de la semaine." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6871713174878486528,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6871713175289503744,urn:li:activity:6871713175289503744,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 118, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6871713175289503744,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6871713175289503744,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Le gouvernement devrait rendre de mani\u00e8re imminente une d\u00e9cision sur la fermeture pr\u00e9matur\u00e9e ou pas des r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires.\n\nS'il acte la \"sortie du nucl\u00e9aire\", cela fera augmenter les \u00e9missions de la Belgique (du moins \u00e0 court terme), et cela est \u00e9videmment un poil \u00e0 rebours du sens de l'histoire, \u00e9crivent un collectif de signataires dans une lettre ouverte au gouvernement belge.\n\nIl est clair que la d\u00e9cision belge fera n\u00e9cessairement perdre sur un tableau, quel qu'il soit. Soit la sortie est act\u00e9e, et le pays se d\u00e9cr\u00e9dibilise sur le plan du climat. Soit elle est refus\u00e9e, et le gouvernement se d\u00e9cr\u00e9dibilise aupr\u00e8s de la fraction de ses \u00e9lecteurs qui tenait \u00e0 cette mesure. Nous sommes (enfin ils sont !) typiquement dans un cas de figure o\u00f9 il n'y a pas de martingale, juste une mesure moins mauvaise qu'une autre. 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6871352119660711936,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans une int\u00e9ressante chronique publi\u00e9e dans Les Echos de ce matin, Jean-Marc Vittori revient sur des publications r\u00e9centes de l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie (notamment https://lnkd.in/dwaVnrSm ) qui quantifient la demande en m\u00e9taux non ferreux (cuivre, nickel, lithium, cobalt notamment) qui r\u00e9sulterait d'une \"transition\" conjuguant activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique en hausse et \u00e9missions de CO2 en baisse (ce que l'on appelle la \"croissance verte\").\n\nLes Echos \u00e9tant un journal \u00e9conomique, mon homonyme de pr\u00e9nom conclut sa tribune en \u00e9voquant les milliers de milliards de dollars qui seraient n\u00e9cessaires pour que cette production soit possible.\n\nCette \"pr\u00e9vision\" laisse penser que cela va nous couter un peu cher, mais que ce n'est qu'une question de volont\u00e9. La r\u00e9alit\u00e9 pourrait ne pas \u00eatre si simple. En particulier, les prix d'aujourd'hui ne disent rien sur la possibilit\u00e9 de faire dans un monde d\u00e9pourvu de combustibles fossiles, parce que ce qui forme notre syst\u00e8me de prix est bien... la disponibilit\u00e9 de ces combustibles.\n\nSi le cuivre coute consid\u00e9rablement moins cher aujourd'hui qu'\u00e0 l'\u00e2ge de bronze (rappelons que le bronze est un alliage de cuivre), c'est parce que nous avons du charbon en masse pour faire l'acier des engins de mine, des trains, des camions et des bateaux, du p\u00e9trole pour faire fonctionner ces derniers (un gros dumper minier est aussi puissant que 3500 chevaux attel\u00e9s : https://lnkd.in/dt7ie9ky ), du charbon pour r\u00e9duire les minerais (qui sont des oxydes), du p\u00e9trole pour transporter massivement minerais et m\u00e9taux dans des vraquiers ou cargos (et pour faire toute la chimie organique - des plastiques et lubrifiants - que l'on retrouve aussi dans toutes ces machines), du charbon et du gaz pour produire l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 n\u00e9cessaire \u00e0 toutes ces machines, et j'en passe.\n\nDans un monde sans combustibles fossiles, tout cela s'en va. Avant les combustibles fossiles en masse, \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque des mineurs \u00e0 pioches, wagonnets de mine tir\u00e9s par des chevaux, et de la marine \u00e0 voile avec des bateaux en bois, il n'\u00e9tait \u00e9videmment pas question de produire les quantit\u00e9s actuelles de m\u00e9taux non ferreux, et a fortiori encore moins 20 \u00e0 40 fois plus, comme cela serait le cas dans cette transition d\u00e9crite par l'AIE.\n\nCertes notre ing\u00e9niosit\u00e9 technique nous conserverait quelque chose du progr\u00e8s moderne dans un monde sans fossiles, mais de l\u00e0 \u00e0 prendre pour argent comptant que nous allons fortement augmenter la production de m\u00e9taux non ferreux alors m\u00eame que ce qui a permis l'\u00e9mergence d'une m\u00e9tallurgie mondialis\u00e9e s'en ira (et que par ailleurs les mines se vident - l'AIE envisage un \"pic cuivre\" pour les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir), il y a un pari \"physique\" qui n'est m\u00eame pas une question de prix, et que nous avons toutes les chances de perdre.\n\nD'o\u00f9 le titre : le 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle ne sera pas du tout celui o\u00f9 nous \u00e9chapperons aux r\u00e9alit\u00e9s mat\u00e9rielles. Nous y resterons plong\u00e9s, plus encore qu'au 20\u00e8." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6871352119660711936,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6871352120315006976,urn:li:activity:6871352120315006976,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 41, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6871352120315006976,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6871352120315006976,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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], "text": "En 2015 s'est cr\u00e9\u00e9 un partenariat entre le CDP (anciennement Carbon Disclosure Project), le Global Compact des Nations Unies, le World Resources Institute (WRI) et le WWF appel\u00e9 Science Based Target Initiative (SBTi) : https://lnkd.in/duYRyZx8\n\nSon but est de proposer un cadre aux engagements pris par les entreprises lorsque ces derni\u00e8res souhaitent contribuer \u00e0 la baisse des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Il s'agit donc d'une initiative m\u00e9thodologique, qui se situe sur le m\u00eame plan que la Net Zero Initiative lanc\u00e9e par Carbone 4 (https://lnkd.in/db7JzB2q ). \n\nPour savoir si nous \u00e9tions raccord ou pas, nous avons compar\u00e9 les deux approches. Le r\u00e9sultat (ouf !) est que c'est \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s raccord. \n\nCes points de m\u00e9thode peuvent sembler \u00e9sot\u00e9riques ou anecdotiques, la \"vraie vie\" \u00e9tant de passer \u00e0 l'action. Sauf que, pour passer \u00e0 l'action de mani\u00e8re pertinente (et non perdre son temps ou, pire, augmenter le probl\u00e8me), il faut savoir vers quoi aller et \u00e0 quel rythme. D\u00e9finir un cadre pour cela est donc crucial.\n\nNB : le SBTi certifie les objectifs que les entreprises se fixent sont du bon ordre de grandeur, mais absolument pas que les m\u00eames entreprises se sont dot\u00e9es des moyens humains et mat\u00e9riels d'atteindre l'objectif en question. Etre certifi\u00e9 SBTi ne signifie donc pas que l'entreprise est sur la bonne trajectoire, mais juste qu'elle a produit un document montrant que la d\u00e9finition de cette trajectoire a \u00e9t\u00e9 faite par une \u00e9quipe au sein de l'entreprise. Dans l'id\u00e9al, cette certification devrait \u00eatre annuelle, et renouvel\u00e9e uniquement en cas de respect de la trajectoire que l'entreprise s'est elle-m\u00eame fix\u00e9e. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Tourisme : un plan \u00e0 2 milliards pour maintenir la France au sommet by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/tourisme-transport/tourisme-le-plan-a-2-milliards-pour-la-destination-france-1365469" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Tourisme\u00a0: un plan \u00e0 2\u00a0milliards pour maintenir la France au sommet" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6870986533294366721,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le tourisme international, version \"transport de personnes\" de la mondialisation \u00e9conomique (qui elle suppose du transport international de marchandises), est une activit\u00e9 qui repose massivement sur le p\u00e9trole (car l'essentiel du tourisme international c'est de l'avion et de la voiture, bien avant le train) et sur la \"civilisation des loisirs\", c'est \u00e0 dire... de l'\u00e9nergie abondante, qui permet de lib\u00e9rer du temps pour faire autre chose que des activit\u00e9s productives. Ce dernier point se manifeste notamment par le fait que, quand la conjoncture va mal - ce qui se produit quand il y a un d\u00e9faut d'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique - le tourisme est une des premi\u00e8res choses qui ralentit fortement (on l'avait bien vu aussi au moment de la crise de 2008/2009).\n\nC'est donc une activit\u00e9 qui est \u00e0 la fois fragile (n'importe quel grain de sable - p\u00e9trole cher ou covid - vient enrayer la machine) et, dans sa forme actuelle, \"non durable\", puisque supposant du transport longue distance massivement assur\u00e9 par du p\u00e9trole. Le seul \"tourisme durable\" est r\u00e9gional et ferroviaire, en attendant d'avoir un peu - mais pas beaucoup - de bus et et voitures d\u00e9carbon\u00e9s.\n\nLe covid avait donn\u00e9 un coup d'arr\u00eat \u00e0 cette activit\u00e9. A quelque chose malheur aurait pu \u00eatre bon : nous aurions pu en profiter pour r\u00e9orienter le secteur vers un tourisme plus local et occupant une place moins importante dans le PIB fran\u00e7ais. Mais non : l\u00e0 comme ailleurs, le plan est d'essayer de revenir \"durablement\" \u00e0 la situation ant\u00e9rieure... alors m\u00eame que cette derni\u00e8re ne peut pas durer.\n\nLe plan veut en particulier \"revaloriser\" les m\u00e9tiers de l'h\u00f4tellerie et de la restauration, c'est \u00e0 dire d'annexes aux transports longue distance des personnes, alors m\u00eame que le d\u00e9clin p\u00e9trolier va progressivement rendre ces transports moins importants.\n\nC'est donc jouer un mauvais tour aux professionnels du secteur que de leur tenir ce discours. 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"FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il faut changer la maxime \"aller au charbon\" par \"n'y allons plus\" : tel \u00e9tait le th\u00e8me de ma chronique d'hier sur RTL. Comme elle dure 3 minutes, je ne vais pas spoiler ici son contenu, mais par contre faire une rectification : j'y ai mentionn\u00e9 \"un petit quart\" pour la production \u00e9lectrique au charbon en Europe, ce qui est d\u00e9sormais inexact. C'\u00e9tait vrai il y a 5 ans mais plus aujourd'hui, puisque ce pourcentage est descendu \u00e0 14% en 2020. Les deux premi\u00e8res sources du Vieux continent sont d\u00e9sormais nucl\u00e9aire et gaz, \u00e0 20% chacune (voir graphique en commentaire).\n\nJ'en profite pour faire deux remarques sur la chronique elle-m\u00eame.\n\nLe Monde affirme dans un article r\u00e9cent (https://lnkd.in/dQH2vniP ) que j'aurais \u00e9t\u00e9 \"impos\u00e9 par M6\" \u00e0 RTL pour cette chronique. Si c'est vrai (Le Monde ne dit pas de qui il tient cette information), alors je l'apprends ! Je n'ai en effet eu aucun contact avec qui que ce soit \u00e0 M6 - et a fortiori je n'ai fait aucune d\u00e9marche pour demander quoi que ce soit, ni \u00e0 M6 ni \u00e0 RTL - avant d'\u00eatre contact\u00e9 l'\u00e9t\u00e9 dernier par le directeur de la r\u00e9daction de RTL qui m'a propos\u00e9 de faire cette chronique.\n\nLa deuxi\u00e8me remarque concerne un enseignement que je crois pouvoir tirer de cet exercice : c'est qu'il touche des gens qui ne font pas du tout partie de mon \"public habituel\". Quand je m'exprime dans un media qui fait partie de ceux qui sont \u00e9cout\u00e9s - directement ou via internet - par les gens de mon \u00e9cosyst\u00e8me professionnel au sens large (je mets par exemple dedans le monde de l'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur scientifique), je re\u00e7ois facilement ensuite quelques mails ou sms \"d\u00e9clench\u00e9s\" par ce passage. \n\nApr\u00e8s une chronique sur RTL, c'est, de ce point de vue, le calme plat (pas un mot !). Loin de m'en plaindre, j'en suis ravi : cela signifie que ce media permet bien d'\u00e9voquer le sujet de l'\u00e9nergie et du climat \u00e0 des personnes que je n'avais jamais \"crois\u00e9es\" avant." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6870683035696685056,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6870683036334223360,urn:li:activity:6870683036334223360,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 20, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6870683036334223360,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6870683036334223360,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8916790231675794431)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "sismique.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: #77 - La fin de la croissance ? - DENNIS MEADOWS by sismique.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.sismique.fr/post/77-la-fin-de-la-croissance-dennis-meadows" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "#77 - La fin de la croissance ? - DENNIS MEADOWS" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6870674348722675712,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 789, "length": 16, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Julien", "lastName": "Devaureix", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAABz5JEBzZKaUsSkX_TvLckoW6jqhbMq03A", "occupation": "Podcast host | Published Author | Speaker | Consultant", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:7595153", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAABz5JEBzZKaUsSkX_TvLckoW6jqhbMq03A", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1673353365876?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=orYZviRYBXbrcwx1Mh4RFVIIcGLAzLc5TsgJxYyAqIY", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1673353365876?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=sVmDiMvXtkso0R__IBLhWlHjCSmilA6K2Wn5oTOotR8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 350 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4D16AQEgwXd-JCuImA/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_" } }, "publicIdentifier": "devaureix", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1618562268845?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=V_GHbxxmKOnpZGUF4KTRPxL_5TEo4Vq3vI5E4KgH2EM", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1618562268845?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=jPgPjWZdFKEs3BmksNykUUcbetZcGxkqdeu1Y1WVR-I", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1618562268845?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=jD0ZI6mT2G4etpRCGVHsblqu2lLfxO8QfVohtM6QuFs", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1618562268845?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=jZiTQ0X-iuwbSAklE_VcnOUuW_R8GIW2qYr54YkdZYs", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C5603AQGj1cF59TOQtw/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "gQiRINX+Qj6+AnbAEDAI1Q==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Il y a quasiment 50 ans - en 1972 - \u00e9tait publi\u00e9 le livre \"The Limits to Growth\" (https://lnkd.in/ev4N-EA ), dont un des auteurs \u00e9tait Dennis Meadows (le premier auteur \u00e9tait Donella Meadows, par ailleurs sa femme, qui est morte en 2001).\n\nDeannis Meadows approche aujourd'hui les quatre cinqui\u00e8mes de si\u00e8cle. Apr\u00e8s une tr\u00e8s forte exposition aux media quand \"The Limits to Growth\" est sorti, il s'exprime d\u00e9sormais tr\u00e8s peu dans l'espace public. Peut-\u00eatre parce qu'il a une tendresse pour notre pays (il poss\u00e8de ou a poss\u00e9d\u00e9 une maison dans le sud de la France, qu'il a voulu un temps transformer en lieu de s\u00e9minaire pour \"groupes de r\u00e9flexion voulant participer \u00e0 la refondation du monde\" - dans l'esprit), il a accept\u00e9 de donner une longue interview au podcast Sismique (belle p\u00eache de Julien Devaureix !)\n\nMalgr\u00e9 ses presque 80 printemps, l'homme reste tr\u00e8s vif sur le plan de la pens\u00e9e. Dans ce podcast (en anglais) il revient sur ce travail qui lui a valu une notori\u00e9t\u00e9 mondiale, fait part de ses craintes et de ses espoirs pour l'avenir, et indique - lui aussi - que nous sommes ainsi faits que nous avons beaucoup de difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 agir pour le long terme si cela doit contrarier nos d\u00e9sirs de court terme.\n\nMeadows rappelle que le scientifique (qu'il a \u00e9t\u00e9) fournit un constat, pas une solution. Inutile, donc, de consid\u00e9rer que la profession qui est comp\u00e9tente pour dire ce qui ne va pas est aussi comp\u00e9tente pour dire ce qu'il faut faire pour que ca aille \"mieux\", alors que nous avons tous le r\u00e9flexe de penser que les physiciens et biologistes sont les m\u00e9decins de la plan\u00e8te : s'ils identifient la \"maladie\", ils ont n\u00e9cessairement le rem\u00e8de \u00e0 nous conseiller \u00e0 la suite !\n\nEn effet, la mani\u00e8re de poser le probl\u00e8me s'applique \u00e0 tou(te)s, alors que l'action d\u00e9pend des moyens, de la situation de d\u00e9part, des alli\u00e9s... C'est pour cela que les gens qui viennent le voir en lui demandant \"que puis-je faire\" s'entendent r\u00e9pondre \"y passer du temps\" :) (r\u00e9ponse que je fais aussi quand je re\u00e7ois un mail avec la m\u00eame question !).\n\nAutre enseignement majeur contenu dans cette interview : alors m\u00eame la d\u00e9croissance des flux physiques est la seule mani\u00e8re de rendre le monde \"soutenable\" (puisque les flux actuels nous m\u00e8nent \u00e0 l'effondrement - \"collapse\" en anglais), Meadows explique qu'il ne faut pas promouvoir la d\u00e9croissance en tant que telle, car nous ne savons pas bien d\u00e9sirer moins. \n\n\"Moins\" (de pression sur l'environnement) doit donc \u00eatre le codicille de \"plus\" (de bonheur \u00e0 relativement court terme) associ\u00e9 \u00e0 la m\u00eame action, et c'est ce \"plus\" qui doit \u00eatre promu, pas le moins. C'est notamment pour cela que toute action demande une r\u00e9flexion pr\u00e9alable qui est tr\u00e8s importante.\n\nMeadows reste un remarquable p\u00e9dagogue (The Limits to Growth \u00e9tait aussi un monument de p\u00e9dagogie). Le propos est pr\u00e9cis, et l'interview s'\u00e9coute avec plaisir. Un must !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6870674348722675712,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6870674349498626048,urn:li:activity:6870674349498626048,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 54, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6870674349498626048,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6870674349498626048,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6870674349498626048", "threadId": 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: La Norv\u00e8ge manque de voitures thermiques \u00e0 taxer by korii.slate.fr", "actionTarget": "https://korii.slate.fr/biz/automobile-norvege-manque-voitures-thermiques-taxer-electriques-impots-finances-publiques" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La Norv\u00e8ge manque de voitures thermiques \u00e0 taxer" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6870385111150419968,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est un point que nous avions d\u00e9j\u00e0 identifi\u00e9 dans Le Plein s'il Vous Plait (https://lnkd.in/gkcMgu5 ), qui \u00e9tait pourtant un plaidoyer en faveur de la mise en place d'une taxe carbone : le but de cette fiscalit\u00e9 est paradoxalement... de faire dispara\u00eetre son assiette. \n\nSi une taxe carbone s'applique aux carburants, c'est bien pour dissuader nos contemporains d'en consommer trop, et m\u00eame faire en sorte qu'ils en consomment de moins en moins, jusqu'\u00e0 plus du tout. A ce moment les recettes fiscales li\u00e9es \u00e0 la taxe carbone... deviennent nulles.\n\nC'est tr\u00e8s exactement ce qui est en train d'arriver - \u00e0 petite \u00e9chelle pour le moment - aux Norv\u00e9giens, donc le parc thermique ne se renouvelle quasiment plus. Dans ce cas pr\u00e9cis, il y a \u00e0 la fois des recettes fiscales qui baissent (la consommation de carburant baisse) et des d\u00e9penses fiscales qui augmentent (les subventions aux v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques).\n\nOn ne va pas pleurer sur le sort d'un \u00e9tat qui s'est consid\u00e9rablement enrichi en vendant son p\u00e9trole \u00e0 l'exportation (un mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique que l'on peut difficilement qualifier de vertueux sur le plan du climat !), par contre ce qui s'y passe nous invite \u00e0 bien r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 la fa\u00e7on dont nous voyons la fin de l'histoire (fiscale) si nous voyons dans la taxe carbone le principal levier d'action contre le changement climatique (ce qui n'est pas mon cas sinon on ne ferait pas le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise au Shift Project - https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ).\n\nCela signifie qu'une taxe carbone ne doit pas \u00eatre vue comme une recette fiscale p\u00e9renne : elle n'est l\u00e0 que le temps de contraindre la consommation des combustibles fossiles \u00e0 la baisse, mais ensuite elle ne contribuera plus \u00e0 l'\u00e9quilibre budg\u00e9taire du pays. C'est une des raisons pour lesquelles il est pertinent de la relier, dans le plan d'ensemble, \u00e0 des d\u00e9penses qui seront elles aussi transitoires.\n\nSinon, il se passe ce qui se passe classiquement en pareil cas : devenant un imp\u00f4t de rendement, elle devient indispensable \u00e0 l'\u00e9quilibre (ou ce qu'il en reste) budg\u00e9taire, et l'Etat lui-m\u00eame n'a aucun int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 la faire baisser, donc aucun int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 limiter la consommation de combustibles fossiles.... \n\nLe m\u00e9canisme fiscal qui \u00e9tait cens\u00e9 faire baisser une nuisance se transforme alors en garant de la p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 de la nuisance en question ! Cela ne signifie pas que la taxation du carbone soit sans int\u00e9r\u00eat. Mais il faut se garder d'en faire l'axe unique, voire principal, d'une politique climatique (notamment parce qu'elle ne dit pas quoi faire en remplacement aux consommateurs finaux, alors que l'exp\u00e9rience montre que ces derniers doivent avoir acc\u00e8s \u00e0 des alternatives qui se pr\u00e9parent). Cela ne peut pas \u00eatre autre chose qu'une mesure parmi d'autres, avec son int\u00e9r\u00eat et ses limites." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6870385111150419968,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6870385111758598144,urn:li:activity:6870385111758598144,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 72, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6870385111758598144,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6870385111758598144,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:11435106", "name": "Carbon4 Finance", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1626269325997?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=3ABm7OMkx3C-lCTZ0nzLNwolAvSOdCzmXAmru5OGoNs", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1626269325997?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=BH2dPvm6L3J2WTdLoIHnY84SpgLWZZ1_En8Q1Ppak6Q", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1626269325997?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=KNMwKZHCJ3dtlDJdUTurpEbxpfYk5LW3dEbsOvBcUBU", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQG_i3N_cce19w/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "carbon4finance", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:11435106", "trackingId": "zhDvIDwTR6azLv5FBZKI2g==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Si vous avez de l'\u00e9pargne plac\u00e9e en obligations ou en actions, il y a toutes les chances que vous ne sachiez pas exactement quels sont les \u00e9tats ou les entreprises que cela finance. Par exemple, l'argent plac\u00e9 via un contrat d'assurance vie (qui regroupe pas loin de 70% de l'\u00e9pargne financi\u00e8re des fran\u00e7ais) est ensuite utilis\u00e9 pour acheter des actions (donc une partie du capital) ou des obligations (donc de la dette) de plusieurs milliers d'\u00e9metteurs.\n\nIl est donc impossible \u00e0 l'\u00e9pargnant de savoir si son \u00e9pargne finance des entreprises ou \u00e9tats qui sont sur la bonne trajectoire ou pas pour \u00eatre en accord avec une limitation du r\u00e9chauffement climatique \u00e0 2\u00b0C (ou \u00e0 3, ou \u00e0 2,8...).\n\n3 outils vous proposent de faire le calcul pour vous. Les donn\u00e9es utilis\u00e9es et m\u00e9thodes employ\u00e9es ne sont pas les m\u00eames, mais je peux au moins parler du 2\u00e8, Rift, puisque c'est Carbon4 Finance qui fournit les donn\u00e9es qui permettent de faire les calculs d'empreinte carbone de l'\u00e9pargne.\n\nLe monde de la finance est suiviste. Au sens physique, il \"suit\" l'\u00e9conomie sous-jacente : il n'est pas possible au monde financier \"d'inventer\" de l'\u00e9pargne bas carbone si l'\u00e9conomie sous-jacente ne l'est pas.\n\nEt il est aussi suiviste au sens commercial : pour qu'il commence \u00e0 comprendre ce qu'il faut pour \u00e9ventuellement faire diff\u00e9remment, il faut que les \u00e9pargnants, particuliers ou entreprises - d'o\u00f9 vient l'argent des gestionnaires d'actifs - tiennent compte \"pour de vrai\" de l'aspect climat dans les placements op\u00e9r\u00e9s, en allant \u00e9ventuellement jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9f\u00e9rer quelque chose qui rapporte moins mais qui est moins carbon\u00e9 vs. quelque chose qui rapporte plus mais qui est plus carbon\u00e9.\n\nCes applications qui permettent de \"r\u00e9v\u00e9ler\" l'aspect climat des placements sont donc utiles pour alimenter la deuxi\u00e8me motivation. La premi\u00e8re rel\u00e8ve de la puissance publique et des consommateurs des entreprises sous-jacentes (m\u00eame pendant le Black Friday...)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6870317182811684864,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6870317183247884288,urn:li:activity:6870317183247884288,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 39, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6870317183247884288,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6870317183247884288,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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larv\u00e9e\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6869902817855852544,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans le monde politique, l'arbitrage entre croissance et d\u00e9croissance (\u00e9conomique) est souvent pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 comme relevant uniquement de notre choix. \"Il est impensable de ne pas avoir de la croissance\" disent les un(e)s, car cela est n\u00e9cessaire pour maintenir le progr\u00e8s social et r\u00e9duire les in\u00e9galit\u00e9s.\n\nIl est n\u00e9cessaire d'avoir de la d\u00e9croissance, disent les autres, car il est imp\u00e9ratif de revenir dans les limites plan\u00e9taires, et cela ne peut se faire en augmentant la taille du PIB.\n\nCroissance ou d\u00e9croissance, alors ? Dans cette courte interview publi\u00e9e sur Novethic, je tente d'expliquer que si l'on regarde les flux physiques, et leur \"marqueur agr\u00e9g\u00e9\" qu'est l'\u00e9nergie, le d\u00e9bat semble h\u00e9las tranch\u00e9 : la d\u00e9croissance est d\u00e9j\u00e0 bien l\u00e0, de mani\u00e8re larv\u00e9e. Et, les m\u00eames causes produisant les m\u00eames effets, il y a toutes les chances pour qu'elle s'amplifie dans les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir.\n\nRien de tout cela n'est tr\u00e8s neuf sous le soleil. Il y a d\u00e9sormais quasiment 50 ans, une \u00e9quipe de dynamiciens des syst\u00e8mes du MIT avait montr\u00e9 en quoi des flux productifs ne pouvaient pas augmenter ind\u00e9finiment sur une plan\u00e8te finie : https://lnkd.in/ev4N-EA, et, apr\u00e8s une phase d'expansion, notre humanit\u00e9 industrielle \u00e9tait inexorablement vou\u00e9e \u00e0 se contracter.\n\nRien n'est tr\u00e8s neuf non plus en ce qui concerne notre difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 nous faire \u00e0 cette id\u00e9e, parce que nous ne sommes pas c\u00e2bl\u00e9s pour appr\u00e9hender une limite globale, mais juste une limite locale, toujours consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme d\u00e9passable : https://lnkd.in/dc4MX67T\n\nUne des choses qui n'aide pas, c'est que m\u00eame dans le domaine environnemental les visions de l'avenir consid\u00e8rent la croissance comme une \u00e9vidence, les seules marges de manoeuvre relevant alors de mesures strictement techniques. C'est notamment le cas des sc\u00e9narios d'\u00e9mission de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre utilis\u00e9s dans les mod\u00e9lisations du GIEC, qui sont faits par des \u00e9conomistes, et qui supposent tous un PIB croissant d'ici \u00e0 2100 (https://lnkd.in/dM4AQhVd ).\n\nCe \"renversement des priorit\u00e9s\" (la physique passe avant nos souhaits et non apr\u00e8s) va nous couter cher. Il est d\u00e9sormais de la responsabilit\u00e9 de ceux qui aspirent \u00e0 g\u00e9rer les affaires communes d'int\u00e9grer cet \u00e9l\u00e9ment dans leur raisonnement. Cela passe par le fait d'avoir une boite \u00e0 outils adapt\u00e9e, et cela est du ressort de tous ceux qui th\u00e9orisent l'\u00e9conomie. Il est urgent de mettre un peu de \"jus de cerveau\" dans la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la question suivante : comment g\u00e9rer au mieux une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 moyens physiques d\u00e9croissants ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6869902817855852544,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6869902818325602304,urn:li:activity:6869902818325602304,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 107, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6869902818325602304,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6869902818325602304,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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Face \u00e0 la crise climatique, ces \u00e9tudiants changent de carri\u00e8re : \"Produire des avions \u00e0 la cha\u00eene pour le tourisme, cela ne m'attire plus du tout\" by francetvinfo.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.francetvinfo.fr/meteo/climat/temoignages-face-a-la-crise-climatique-ces-etudiants-changent-de-carriere-produire-des-avions-a-la-chaine-pour-le-tourisme-cela-ne-m-attire-plus-du-tout_4832783.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "TEMOIGNAGES. Face \u00e0 la crise climatique, ces \u00e9tudiants changent de carri\u00e8re : \"Produire des avions \u00e0 la cha\u00eene pour le tourisme, cela ne m'attire plus du tout\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6869557998109368320,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Du sens plut\u00f4t que des sous : cet arbitrage n'est pas nouveau chez les jeunes dipl\u00f4m\u00e9s du sup\u00e9rieur, sinon pas un seul d'entre eux ne serait all\u00e9 dans la recherche ! \n\nCe qui est nouveau, par contre, c'est que dans \"le sens\" on trouve d\u00e9sormais, de mani\u00e8re croissante, la question du climat, ou plus exactement l'envie de contribuer \u00e0 ce que la d\u00e9rive climatique ne nous fasse pas trop mal.\n\nC'est \u00e9videmment une tr\u00e8s bonne nouvelle qu'une partie de la jeune g\u00e9n\u00e9ration ait cette \"envie d'en d\u00e9coudre\", et c'est l'essentiel du propos de cet article (assez bien fait). Mais il mentionne aussi un \u00e9l\u00e9ment qui est lui bien moins \"positif\" : le fait que l'enseignement des \u00e9tablissements du sup\u00e9rieur continue \u00e0 pr\u00e9parer ces jeunes adultes au monde d'hier au lieu de les pr\u00e9parer au monde de demain.\n\nCette situation est contraire non seulement aux aspirations d'une fraction croissante des \u00e9l\u00e8ves, mais aussi aux int\u00e9r\u00eats de notre pays. Tout le monde va devoir se d\u00e9carboner un jour ou l'autre, climat ou pas climat, parce que les combustibles fossiles sont \u00e9puisables. \n\nEn Europe, la baisse subie pour causes g\u00e9ologiques de l'approvisionnement en p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon a d\u00e9j\u00e0 commenc\u00e9. Dans ce contexte, d\u00e9layer plus outre la mise en ordre de marche de nos ressources - l'intelligence et les comp\u00e9tences - est aussi une erreur manag\u00e9riale, et un affaiblissement de notre position sur la sc\u00e8ne internationale. \n\nIl serait temps que les directeurs d'\u00e9tablissements (\u00e0 commencer par celui de Polytechnique !) comprennent que plus ils tardent \u00e0 mettre dans l'enseignement de quoi rendre mes vid\u00e9os inutiles, moins ils sont au rendez vous de l'histoire." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6869557998109368320,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6869557998675615744,urn:li:activity:6869557998675615744,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 57, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"text": "A une semaine de d\u00e9cembre, apr\u00e8s plus de 2 mois d'automne - avec un temps normalement plus pluvieux que l'\u00e9t\u00e9 - on pourrait se dire que l'\u00e9tat de s\u00e9cheresse n'est - heureusement - plus qu'un lointain souvenir, au moins en attendant la suivante.\n\nSur tout l'ouest am\u00e9ricain, il n'est est rien : https://lnkd.in/dQVN83A L'\u00e9tat de s\u00e9cheresse reste \"exceptionnel\" sur une large partie du pays, m\u00eame si ca va un peu mieux. \n\nLa situation europ\u00e9enne n'est pas aussi critique mais il reste des zones \u00e0 l'est et au sud qui auraient bien besoin d'un bon bain... dont une large partie de la Corse, et de l'Italie : https://lnkd.in/dVSFZAgX\n\nLa d\u00e9rive climatique est un processus au long cours. Si les sols s\u00e8chent un peu plus vite (voire beaucoup plus vite) l'\u00e9t\u00e9, avec des pr\u00e9cipitations d'hiver simplement constantes (sans m\u00eame parler de baisse), on se retrouve \u00e0 l'arriv\u00e9e avec une humidit\u00e9 de la terre qui baisse structurellement.\n\nLes pluies intenses en 24h ne sont malheureusement pas \u00e9quivalentes \u00e0 des pluies moins intenses et plus fr\u00e9quentes : les trombes d'eau ne s'infiltrent que tr\u00e8s partiellement, et alimentent directement les rivi\u00e8res et s'\u00e9vacuent vers la mer, plut\u00f4t que les sols et les nappes.\n\nRappelons que, malheureusement, l'ass\u00e8chement des sols sera une des cons\u00e9quences importantes du changement climatique, et s'effectuera notamment dans des zones tr\u00e8s cultiv\u00e9es, ou bien recelant des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes riches (Amazonie) ; voir graphique en commentaire. L'adaptation aux moyennes latitudes, on sait d\u00e9j\u00e0 que ce sera g\u00e9rer des sols plus secs en moyenne." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6869350696752300032,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6869350697268195328,urn:li:activity:6869350697268195328,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 13, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6869350697268195328,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6869350697268195328,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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D\u00e8s qu\u2019elle vient \u00e0 manquer, c\u2019est tout..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Toutes et tous accros \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9nergie ? / ZOOM ZEN - Chroniques Philosophiques" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6869172635180244992,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'\u00e9mission Zoom Zen de la RTS (Radio T\u00e9l\u00e9vision Suisse) s'int\u00e9resse \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie et \u00e0 une certaine BD qui en parle.\n\nJe ne sais pas o\u00f9 en est l'approvisionnement des librairies suisses,\nmais en France on tanne un peu l'\u00e9diteur pour qu'il s'occupe de la chose !\n\nNB : le contenu carbone d'un livre - car la question m'a \u00e9t\u00e9 pos\u00e9e - est significativement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui de tout objet \u00e9lectronique, d'un v\u00eatement, d'un bijou, et m\u00eame d'un repas au restaurant avec de la viande de boeuf. Je n'ai pas le calcul pour une BD, mais pour un livre broch\u00e9 ordinaire c'est environ 1 kg de CO2. On peut donc, \u00e0 la condition d'\u00eatre un asc\u00e8te parfait, qui ni ne mange, ni ne se d\u00e9place, ni ne se chauffe, ni n'ach\u00e8te quoi que ce soit d'autre, en lire 2000 dans l'ann\u00e9e et \u00eatre toujours compatible avec la cible \u00e0 2040 :)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6869172635180244992,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6869172635750694912,urn:li:activity:6869172635750694912,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 27, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6869172635750694912,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6869172635750694912,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", 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D\u00e9carbonons la Sant\u00e9 pour soigner durablement ! \u00bb : pr\u00e9sentation du rapport final (Jeudi 25 novembre \u00e0 18h) - The Shift Project" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6868978879944527872,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Du changement climatique dans l'appareil de soins ? Meuh non, le syst\u00e8me de sant\u00e9 est fait pour nous garder... en bonne sant\u00e9, et ne saurait donc, directement ou indirectement, porter atteinte \u00e0 cette derni\u00e8re en allant sournoisement aggraver la d\u00e9rive climatique pendant que nous avons le dos tourn\u00e9.\n\nC'est pourtant un peu ce qui se passe, au corps d\u00e9fendant (ou ignorant plut\u00f4t) des entit\u00e9s concern\u00e9es, quand on sait qu'environ 8% de l'empreinte carbone du pays vient de l'ensemble des \u00e9tablissements - et de leurs fournisseurs - qui s'occupent de nos plaies et bosses.\n\nMauvaise nouvelle donc : comme le reste de nos activit\u00e9s, celles qui visent \u00e0 nous pr\u00e9munir des petites b\u00eates et des grosses tuiles sont aujourd'hui massivement d\u00e9pendantes des combustibles fossiles.\n\nCar fabriquer (puis transporter) un scanner, un antibiotique, une seringue ou un bloc op\u00e9ratoire, transporter un malade ou sa famille, chauffer un \u00e9tablissement de soins ou nettoyer des draps, sans parler de nourrir les personnes hospitalis\u00e9es et celles qui en prennent soin, cela demande aujourd'hui force p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon, et engendre des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre.\n\nComment se pr\u00e9sente la situation dans le d\u00e9tail ? 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"Open article: Les anti-Black Friday haussent le ton by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/conso-distribution/les-anti-black-friday-haussent-le-ton-1271067" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les anti-Black Friday haussent le ton" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6868816257550958593,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans quelques jours aura lieu le Black Friday. Apr\u00e8s la \"marchandisation\" - tr\u00e8s ancienne - de Noel, des m\u00e8res, des p\u00e8res, des grands-m\u00e8res (\u00e0 quand la f\u00eate des beaux-fr\u00e8res et celle des oncles par alliance ?), des amoureux (la Saint Valentin) ; apr\u00e8s les soldes, voici donc le \"Vendredi noir\", o\u00f9 si vous ne vous pr\u00e9cipitez pas sur tout ce qui peut s'acheter c'est que vous n'avez rien compris \u00e0 la vie ou presque.\n\nLes Echos \u00e9voquent la cr\u00e9ation d'un collectif de marques qui consid\u00e8rent que le meilleur Black Friday est... pas de Black Friday. C'est une \u00e9vidence que, si nous voulons baisser de mani\u00e8re g\u00e9r\u00e9e la pression sur l'environnement (l'autre alternative \u00e9tant qu'elle baisse \"toute seule\" \u00e0 l'occasion de crises d\u00e9coulant du franchissement temporaire des limites plan\u00e9taires), il va falloir consommer moins. \n\nSi nous voulons vraiment \"make the planet great again\", il ne serait pas d\u00e9plac\u00e9 que ce jour l\u00e0 nous ayons un discours pr\u00e9sidentiel nous invitant \u00e0 la mod\u00e9ration, nous expliquant o\u00f9 nous en sommes par rapport aux limites plan\u00e9taires (car c'est le job d'un pr\u00e9sident de faire cela, et pas celui d'une ministre de l'environnement) et nous poussant \u00e0 nous demander ce qu'est un vrai besoin. \n\nL'essentiel du temps, nous nous rendrons compte que, \u00e0 notre petite \u00e9chelle, nous sommes tous des Elon Musk. Nous voulons tous \"un peu plus\" que ce que nous avions, un truc nouveau, et qui, l'essentiel du temps, ne correspond pas vraiment \u00e0 un besoin vital, mais juste \u00e0 un d\u00e9sir solvable. La derni\u00e8re t\u00e9l\u00e9 4K ou un petit tour dans l'espace ob\u00e9issent aux m\u00eames pulsions.\n\nEst-ce \u00e0 dire que ce serait la fin de l'\u00e9conomie ? Bien sur que non. L'inverse de l'exc\u00e8s consum\u00e9riste n'est pas \"rien du tout\". Il est heureux que quelques entit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques acceptent \u00e0 tout le moins de tenir ce discours." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6868816257550958593,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6868816258180116480,urn:li:activity:6868816258180116480,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 233, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6868816258180116480,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6868816258180116480,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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Mal inform\u00e9s que nous \u00e9tions, nous nous trompions ! Heureusement Fuel For Planet est arriv\u00e9 pour r\u00e9tablir la v\u00e9rit\u00e9 : en fait plus nous roulons en voiture \u00e0 essence, plus nous sauvons la plan\u00e8te !\n\nCe distributeur de carburant \u00e9crit ainsi sur son site (https://fuelforplanet.com/ ) :\n\n\"Parce que la majorit\u00e9 des v\u00e9hicules en circulation fonctionne \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie fossile, et pour encore longtemps, se d\u00e9placer contribue inexorablement au r\u00e9chauffement climatique (...) Nous, on a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d'innover pour concilier libert\u00e9 de d\u00e9placement et impact positif sur l'environnement. Alors, on s'est mis \u00e0 r\u00eaver : et si nous nous engagions \u00e0 lutter contre le r\u00e9chauffement climatique en faisant notre plein d'essence ?\" (c'est beau non ? j'en ai presque les larmes aux yeux).\n\n\"Choisir Fuel For Planet (...) c'est continuer \u00e0 assurer ses d\u00e9placements essentiels tout en luttant au quotidien contre le r\u00e9chauffement climatique\".\n\nTransformer le plein en action contre le changement climatique, il fallait oser. Pr\u00e9tendre que payer un centime de plus au litre permet \"d'annuler\" son impact sur l'environnement, il fallait oser aussi. \n\nBien \u00e9videmment, le d\u00e9but de l'affirmation inexacte est la notion m\u00eame de \"compensation\". Cette derni\u00e8re n'a pas de fondement scientifique : https://lnkd.in/db7JzB2q\n\nIl est \u00e9videmment souhaitable de financer des actions qui visent \u00e0 augmenter les puits terrestres de carbone (agroforesterie, plantations, etc) mais en aucun cas cela ne \"compense\" les \u00e9missions qui ont lieu par ailleurs. \n\nL'affirmation de fuel for planet est du m\u00eame tonneau (c'est de circonstance) que si on disait \"buvez en toute tranquillit\u00e9, car plus vous buvez, plus on pourra collecter d'argent pour soigner les malades de la cirrhose\". \n\nSi les propri\u00e9taires de jets priv\u00e9s vont faire le plein chez eux, ce seront alors - de tr\u00e8s loin - les plus gros bienfaiteurs de l'environnement : est-il pr\u00e9vu de faire une piste d'atterrissage \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 de chaque pompe de ce distributeur ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6868460366918115328,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"accessibilityText": "Open article: \u00c9lectricit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire : que font les USA, le Canada et l'Am\u00e9rique du Sud ? by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/electricite-nucleaire-amerique-nord-sud/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00c9lectricit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire : que font les USA, le Canada et l'Am\u00e9rique du Sud ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6868149590739193856,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 842, "length": 12, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:13651404", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:13651404", "name": "Les Shifters", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1629109484661?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=R27axQl2IngP9wy5-c-j-bqyZJLgRJAQZCPREnDHIr4", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1629109484661?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=cv_DzzKYuZxt-bdCWkAj_3yb2GKDKksNUWr_o93ansM", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1629109484661?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=6dofux6TPkbWW5VuLLmjBsUAY3kDM0OQz5aNswUrLNA", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C560BAQFTN0BHZgn0qw/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "les-shifters", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:13651404", "trackingId": "9WVRhZL3TJSEpWrUT0eBdg==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Chez nous, la situation sur le nucl\u00e9aire a r\u00e9cemment \u00e9volu\u00e9 : de \"b\u00eate \u00e0 abattre partiellement\" (situation incarn\u00e9e par l'objectif de limiter le nucl\u00e9aire \u00e0 50% de la production \u00e9lectrique, la fermeture de Fessenheim et l'arr\u00eat d'Astrid), ce mode de production de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (et dans certains pays, de chaleur, au travers de la cog\u00e9n\u00e9ration qui peut aussi se faire avec du nucl\u00e9aire) redevient \"dans le vent\" (sans mauvais jeu de mots !).\n\nNous avons souvent tendance \u00e0 raisonner sur le nucl\u00e9aire comme s'il n'y en avait que chez nous. Si Flamanville coute cher, alors le nucl\u00e9aire est cher. Si nous avons moins de centrales, alors il y en a moins dans le monde. Si nous n'en construisons pas, alors les autres n'en construisent pas.\n\nMais en fait la situation n'est pas du tout homog\u00e8ne dans le monde. Pour nous permettre d'y voir clair, Les Shifters proposent un panorama de ce qui se passe ailleurs sur la plan\u00e8te.\n\nL'\u00e9pisode du jour concerne le continent am\u00e9ricain, du nord au sud. Au nord, royaume du march\u00e9, c'est l'\u00e9conomie qui commande. Cela rend tr\u00e8s compliqu\u00e9e la (sur)vie d'un syst\u00e8me qui demande un pilotage stable sur le long terme. \n\nLorsque le p\u00e9trole \u00e9tait cher (et que l'on pensait que ca serait durablement le cas), des r\u00e9acteurs ont \u00e9t\u00e9 construits en masse. Maintenant que le gaz ne vaut rien (et le CO2 non plus), le renouvellement du parc - sans parler de son accroissement - est tout sauf assur\u00e9 (la note des shifters ne prend pas position sur le fait que ce soit souhaitable ou pas : elle d\u00e9crit juste ce que l'on observe aujourd'hui).\n\nLe sud se partage en deux sous-ensembles qui ont des ambitions oppos\u00e9es. \n\nVous pouvez retrouver les trois \u00e9pisodes pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents de ce panorama du nucl\u00e9aire dans le monde (Europe - URSS + Asie de l'Est - Afrique et Oc\u00e9anie) ici : https://lnkd.in/d_PBUBSd\n\nBonne lecture !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6868149590739193856,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6868149591280234496,urn:li:activity:6868149591280234496,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 20, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": 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"textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Chaque ann\u00e9e, 20 \u00e0 30 millions d'hectares de couvert arbor\u00e9 disparaissent de la surface de la plan\u00e8te, si l'on en croit ce graphique r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par Les Echos \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es de Global Forest Watch (https://lnkd.in/eK_PcByY ). \n\nCette mani\u00e8re de compter, qui donne un r\u00e9sultat 4 \u00e0 5 fois sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui de la d\u00e9forestation seule, inclut aussi les arbres qui sont coup\u00e9s lors de l'exploitation normale des for\u00eats, ceux qui br\u00fblent, et ceux qui sont supprim\u00e9s lors de cultures itin\u00e9rantes (mais qui peuvent \u00e9ventuellement repousser ensuite). Cela explique pourquoi la Russie arrive avant le Br\u00e9sil : les incendies majeurs y sont d\u00e9sormais fr\u00e9quents \u00e0 cause du r\u00e9chauffement climatique.\n\nL'Union Europ\u00e9enne discute actuellement d'un r\u00e8glement qui a pour objet d'interdire l'importation de certains produits agricoles ou forestiers (soja, bois, cacao, caf\u00e9, huile de palme, boeuf) ou d\u00e9riv\u00e9s (cuir et ameublement) s'ils sont issus de surfaces r\u00e9cemment d\u00e9forest\u00e9es (apr\u00e8s d\u00e9cembre 2020) : https://lnkd.in/edaCPm4w (rappelons qu'un r\u00e8glement est d'application imm\u00e9diate apr\u00e8s adoption par le parlement et le conseil et n'a pas besoin d'une transposition dans le droit national des Etats membres).\n\nPour cela il faut une tra\u00e7abilit\u00e9 depuis la parcelle, et de la visibilit\u00e9 sur l'\u00e9volution de cette derni\u00e8re. Avec les observations par satellite (pour lesquelles l'Europe dispose de son propre syst\u00e8me) ce dernier point est devenu relativement \"facile\", car l'observation depuis l'espace permet d\u00e9sormais de se faire une bonne id\u00e9e de l'\u00e9volution du couvert forestier.\n\nLa tra\u00e7abilit\u00e9 des produits agricoles depuis l'exploitation - donc la parcelle - est normalement aussi d\u00e9j\u00e0 effectu\u00e9e, mais cela posera peut-\u00eatre quelques probl\u00e8mes (et de multiples tentatives de fraude) dans les pays qui sont directement vis\u00e9s, o\u00f9 la d\u00e9forestation est malheureusement trop souvent encourag\u00e9e, ou tol\u00e9r\u00e9e, par les autorit\u00e9s.\n\nIl n'en reste pas moins que ce premier pas est une bonne nouvelle. 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l'industrie auto" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6867356675637055489,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Que faut-il fabriquer comme voitures dans un monde bas carbone, et combien ?\n\nRien du tout diront les uns. La voiture ca pue, ca pollue, ca occupe trop d'espace, ca nous rend inactifs donc en mauvaise sant\u00e9, c'est trop lourd et consomme trop de mat\u00e9riaux, et tout cela la condamne \u00e0 terme,\u00a0\u00e9lectrique ou pas, dans un monde neutre en carbone et sobre en ressources non renouvelables.\n\nAutant qu'aujourd'hui diront les autres : pensez donc aux emplois, aux familles loin de tout qui n'ont ni transport en commun ni la possibilit\u00e9 d'utiliser des v\u00e9los, aux progr\u00e8s technologiques qui vont permettre de \"neutraliser\" tout ca question CO2, au recyclage qui nous all\u00e8gera la contrainte m\u00e9taux, et \u00e0 la pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence de nos concitoyens pour le pavillon de banlieue qui demande du transport individuel.\n\nConcilier ces deux points de vue est-il possible ? Compl\u00e8tement, s\u00fbrement pas. Dans le cadre du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise, The Shift Project vous pr\u00e9sente le compromis que nous proposons pour cette fili\u00e8re industrielle qui est l'une des principales que nous avons encore sur notre sol. \n\nCe travail a \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9, comme les autres propositions sectorielles du PTEF, par des personnes qui ont longtemps travaill\u00e9 dans le secteur, et qui connaissent bien ce dernier de l'int\u00e9rieur. Il boucle \u00e9videmment avec les autres travaux men\u00e9s dans le cadre du PTEF, sur l'industrie lourde ou l'\u00e9nergie. Enfin il s'agit bien de propositions, non d'une pr\u00e9vision ou d'un travail de pure analyse prospective.\n\n9 pages de synth\u00e8se ou 148 pages de rapport vous attendent, selon votre degr\u00e9 de curiosit\u00e9 et le temps dont vous disposez. 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auteur(s), par contre, voici quelques passages media r\u00e9cents :\n- Christophe Blain sur France Inter dans l'\u00e9mission Popopop d'Antoine de Caunes : https://lnkd.in/dw6b9FH2\n- votre serviteur sur Europe 1 \u00e0 la matinale week-end de Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Tadde\u00ef : https://lnkd.in/dKMj_uBZ\n- votre serviteur sur France Bleu dans l'\u00e9mission Plan\u00e8te Bleu : https://lnkd.in/dCG6brPy\n\nSi vous envisagez d'en offrir pour No\u00ebl un exemplaire \u00e0 vos clients (qui resteront vos clients apr\u00e8s, j'ai test\u00e9), vos salari\u00e9s (qui normalement ne d\u00e9missionneront pas dans l'heure apr\u00e8s ca), ou tout autre sous-ensemble de la population mondiale, les r\u00e9impressions sont en cours. 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elle s'inqui\u00e9tait (et plus encore) de la disparition possible des oiseaux \u00e0 cause de l'usage du DDT qui fragilisait les coquilles de leurs oeufs.\n\n60 ans apr\u00e8s, sa \"proph\u00e9tie\" s'est malheureusement concr\u00e9tis\u00e9e. Certes le DDT fut interdit en 1972 et ce n'est pas cette mol\u00e9cule qui a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 causer l'effondrement des populations, mais, dans les pays des moyennes latitudes, d'autres mol\u00e9cules utilis\u00e9es contre les insectes s'en sont charg\u00e9es, en privant les b\u00eates \u00e0 plumes de nourriture (les insectes). \n\nD'autres pressions sont venues se rajouter (les chats domestiques, les chasseurs, et la perte d'habitats). Une \u00e9tude (de plus ; lien dans l'article du Monde), bas\u00e9e sur des centaines de milliers d'enregistrements de chants, vient en attester. \n\nSachant que les insecticides sont utilis\u00e9s pour augmenter le rendement des cultures, donc avoir des aliments moins chers, la question est de savoir ce que p\u00e8se un loriot ou un roitelet face au prix des produits agricoles. 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o\u00f9 chaque film projet\u00e9 - qui se rapporte \u00e0 un des th\u00e8mes ci-dessus - est suivi d'un d\u00e9bat avec des intervenant(e)s qui sont \u00e9videmment pertinent(e)s pour le th\u00e8me trait\u00e9.\n\nLe lien pour la description des films, s\u00e9ances et intervenant(e)s est dans l'image ci-dessous ; la billetterie (car il faut quand m\u00eame r\u00e9server la salle et payer la location de la copie !) est l\u00e0 : https://lnkd.in/dFvxCZ4Z\n\nA vos v\u00e9los ! 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Adaptation \ud83c\udf0a cherche un\u00b7e Consultant\u00b7e Senior ayant au moins 4 ans d'exp\u00e9rience professionnelle, notamment en gestion de projet, d\u00e9veloppement commercial et m\u00e9thodes d'analyse des risques en vue d'accompagner les entreprises \u00e0 renforcer la r\u00e9silience de leurs activit\u00e9s face aux changements climatiques.\n\n- la Pratique Finance \ud83d\udcb5 cherche un\u00b7e Consultant\u00b7e Senior ayant 3 \u00e0 5 ans\u00a0d\u2019exp\u00e9rience professionnelle, dont\u00a0au moins 2 ans en lien avec le secteur de la finance et/ou du conseil\u00a0(ou inspection g\u00e9n\u00e9rale) en vue d'aider les acteurs financiers \u00e0 aligner leurs investissements avec une trajectoire 1,5\u00b0C.\n\n- la Pratique Neutralit\u00e9 \ud83c\udf33 cherche un\u00b7e Consultant\u00b7e Senior \"puits de carbone\" qui, apr\u00e8s au moins 3 ans d'exp\u00e9rience, dispose d'une tr\u00e8s connaissance des m\u00e9thodologies de quantification des flux et stocks de carbone, conna\u00eet bien les enjeux relatifs au secteur des terres et les labels de certification carbone.\n\n\ud83c\udf0f Si l'un de ces postes vous int\u00e9resse, rendez-vous sur notre site pour postuler en fournissant votre CV et lettre de motivation :" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6866080449488281600,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6866080449932877824,urn:li:activity:6866080449932877824,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 3, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6866080449932877824,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6866080449932877824,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Assessing Global Long-Term EROI of Gas: A Net-Energy Perspective on the Energy Transition by mdpi.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/5112" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Assessing Global Long-Term EROI of Gas: A Net-Energy Perspective on the Energy Transition" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6866304250645934080,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La Belgique a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de remplacer ses r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires par un m\u00e9lange de renouvelables et de centrales \u00e0 gaz. L'Espagne a construit un parc de production comportant, pour des capacit\u00e9s install\u00e9es \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s \u00e9quivalentes, de l'\u00e9olien et des centrales \u00e0 gaz. L'Allemagne veut sortir du nucl\u00e9aire avec en face une augmentation du parc de centrales \u00e0 gaz, pour garder une puissance pilotable \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s constante.\n\nCes d\u00e9cisions sont \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence contre-productives sur les \u00e9missions de CO2, qui augmentent (Espagne, Belgique \u00e0 venir) ou ne baissent pas vite (Allemagne), parce que le gaz est une \u00e9nergie fossile.\n\nMais une question que personne ne semble se poser est : y aura-t-il du gaz ? Car cette ressource n'est pas plus renouvelable que le p\u00e9trole, et fera donc l'objet, comme pour le p\u00e9trole, d'un pic de production dans le monde. \n\nLa production mondiale, explique un article publi\u00e9 en ao\u00fbt dernier, passerait par un maximum peu apr\u00e8s celle de p\u00e9trole (c'est ce que j'ai toujours entendu depuis que je m'int\u00e9resse au sujet). Mais, comme pour le p\u00e9trole, il faut aussi utiliser de l'\u00e9nergie pour exploiter un gisement de gaz. \n\nSelon les auteurs de cet article, cette \"\u00e9nergie n\u00e9cessaire pour extraire l'\u00e9nergie\" passerait de 5% \u00e0 23% du gaz extrait entre 2020 et 2050. Cela avance le pic de 5 \u00e0 10 ans, et surtout le met significativement plus bas. C'est en effet ce qu'il reste apr\u00e8s d\u00e9duction de l'\u00e9nergie d'extraction qui est disponible pour faire tourner les \"machines \u00e0 gaz\" (dont les centrales \u00e9lectriques).\n\nApr\u00e8s l'extraction, vient le transport. Comme le gaz est gazeux (merci La Palisse) \u00e0 temp\u00e9rature et pression ordinaires, il contient sous cette forme mille fois moins d'\u00e9nergie par unit\u00e9 de volume que le p\u00e9trole. Or, le transport du gaz ou du p\u00e9trole, c'est consacrer de l'\u00e9nergie (celle du transport) \u00e0 transporter... de l'\u00e9nergie. Avec le p\u00e9trole on perd 2% au passage (en p\u00e9trolier ou oleoduc), avec le gaz c'est plut\u00f4t 10% \u00e0 15% par gazoduc et plus encore par m\u00e9thanier. Du coup, alors que le p\u00e9trole est une \u00e9nergie mondiale (parce que la d\u00e9perdition due au transport est faible), le gaz est une \u00e9nergie r\u00e9gionale \u00e0 locale.\n\nEn Europe, il faut donc s'int\u00e9resser \u00e0 2 ou 3 sources de gaz dominantes dans l'approvisionnement :\n- celle de la mer du Nord, qui est en d\u00e9clin depuis 2005 (et la Norv\u00e8ge vient de passer son pic a priori, donc le d\u00e9clin va s'acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer dans les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir)\n- la Russie, qui exportait des quantit\u00e9s \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s constantes depuis 30 ans (et les gisements \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper sont situ\u00e9s \u00e0 mi-chemin de l'Europe - qui aime bien dire aux Russes qu'ils font des choses pas bien - et de la Chine)\n- l'Afrique du Nord, dont les capacit\u00e9s d'exportation sont en d\u00e9clin depuis 10 ans (la production croit l\u00e9g\u00e8rement mais la consommation domestique croit plus vite).\n\nUne centrale \u00e0 gaz dure 40 ans. Donc la question est repos\u00e9e : y aura-t-il suffisamment de gaz... assez longtemps ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6866304250645934080,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6866304251199574016,urn:li:activity:6866304251199574016,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 111, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6866304251199574016,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6866304251199574016,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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A beaucoup de de choses, mais pas... \u00e0 avoir un impact sur le climat, alors que la croyance populaire - trop souvent entretenue par les media - est justement que c'est \"l\u00e0 que ca se passe\" (je l'ai cru aussi avant d'aller y faire un tour, \u00e0 Poznan en 2008 pour la premi\u00e8re fois). De ce fait, il serait illusoire de consid\u00e9rer qu'il y aura un jour une \"COP finale\", apr\u00e8s laquelle on pourrait poser le crayon et consid\u00e9rer que le probl\u00e8me climatique est r\u00e9solu.\n\nFran\u00e7ois Gemenne a malheureusement raison.\n\nTout d'abord, la Convention climat, plac\u00e9e sous l'\u00e9gide des Nations Unies, ne cr\u00e9e pas un \"chef du monde\" apte \u00e0 imposer ses d\u00e9cisions aux pays. Ces derniers sont souverains, et ne peuvent changer que par la force ou leur propre volont\u00e9. Le seul \"chef du monde\" des Nations Unies est le Conseil de S\u00e9curit\u00e9, qui n'a pas de comp\u00e9tences sur la question climatique (mais ca serait peut-\u00eatre une bonne id\u00e9e qu'il en ait...).\n\nIl se trouve que les plus gros \u00e9metteurs sont aussi les plus puissants - avec la plus grosse \u00e9conomie ou la plus grosse arm\u00e9e (\u00e0 cause du r\u00f4le de l'\u00e9nergie), et donc ceux-l\u00e0 m\u00eame qu'il est difficile ou impossible de faire plier par la force, celle des armes ou celle de l'\u00e9conomie. \n\nNe reste donc que leur propre volont\u00e9, qui est ce qu'elle est et est dict\u00e9e par leur int\u00e9r\u00eat propre : une COP ent\u00e9rine donc ce que les \u00e9metteurs significatifs ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de faire par int\u00e9r\u00eat propre, mais rien de plus. Comme les \u00e9nergies fossiles sont une drogue dure, ce cercle des carboniques anonymes va durer \"un certain temps\", comme disait Fernand Reynaud.\n\nEnsuite, certains compartiments du syst\u00e8me climatique vont continuer \u00e0 d\u00e9river pendant des milliers d'ann\u00e9es apr\u00e8s arr\u00eat des \u00e9missions (lequel arr\u00eat n'est pas pour demain \u00e0 15h26). C'est notamment le cas pour l'oc\u00e9an et la cryosph\u00e8re, et probablement aussi pour l'\u00e9volution de certains \u00e9cosyst\u00e8me qui r\u00e9pondent avec retard aux conditions ambiantes. A mesure que le temps passera, la question de \"l'adaptation\" (terme impropre car plus le temps passera et plus l'adaptation s'appellera en fait subir) montera en puissance, et pourra n\u00e9cessiter aussi un forum de discussion.\n\nIl ne faut donc rien attendre d'autre des COP que des d\u00e9clarations d'intention. Sauf pand\u00e9mie bien plus m\u00e9chante que le COVID ou chute d'un ast\u00e9ro\u00efde (qui \"d\u00e9truirait\" notre \u00e9conomie), le maintien de l'\u00e9l\u00e9vation de la moyenne plan\u00e9taire sous 1,5 \u00b0C \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 perdu avant la COP 26. On peut - et doit - \u00e9videmment le regretter, mais ce n'\u00e9tait pas \u00e0 la COP de changer cela. C'est \u00e0 nous, les citoyens-consommateurs, aux aux instances \"proches\" que constituent les repr\u00e9sentations \u00e9conomiques, les collectivit\u00e9s locales et les \u00e9tats." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6865918570174431232,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6865918570879090688,urn:li:activity:6865918570879090688,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 38, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6865918570879090688,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6865918570879090688,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7097568852470504826)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: COP26 : les engagements climatiques a minima des gestionnaires d'actifs by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/finance-marches/gestion-actifs/cop26-les-engagements-climatiques-a-minima-des-gestionnaires-dactifs-1362121" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "COP26\u00a0: les engagements climatiques a minima des gestionnaires d'actifs" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6865700557693181952,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Mark Carney (ancien gouverneur de la banque centrale de Grande Bretagne) a initi\u00e9 en avril dernier la Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), pour \"financer la transition\".\n\nCette \"alliance\" a publi\u00e9 le 3 novembre dernier un communiqu\u00e9 de presse affirmant que \"le montant du financement engag\u00e9 pour atteindre 1,5\u00b0C est maintenant \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle n\u00e9cessaire pour assurer la transition\" (https://lnkd.in/dCVRCCxf ), avec 130.000 milliards d'actifs g\u00e9r\u00e9s par les entit\u00e9s (investisseurs, gestionnaires d'actifs, etc) qui participent \u00e0 l'Alliance.\n\nSuper ! Le monde financier va donc s'organiser pour ne financer que les projets compatibles avec une trajectoire 1,5\u00b0C et pas les autres ?\n\nEn fait c'est un peu plus compliqu\u00e9 que cela : le monde financier d\u00e9clare qu'il veut bien financer... l'action des gouvernements ! En effet, dans un \"appel aux gouvernements du G20 pour passer \u00e0 l'action\" publi\u00e9 il y a peu (https://lnkd.in/d9-ngaux ), la GFANZ donne sa liste de courses en mati\u00e8re de cadre \u00e0 mettre en place pour que la finance joue son r\u00f4le. \n\nIl y en a pour tout le monde : les entreprises doivent publier des indicateurs, les gouvernements arr\u00eater tel type de subventions, les banques centrales et r\u00e9gulateurs mettre un cadre clair, etc. Donc un premier codicille est que la finance veut bien financer... une action qui n'est pas d\u00e9cid\u00e9e par elle. \n\nEnsuite, explique (assez bien) cet article des Echos, les 130 trillions correspondent \u00e0 des investissements dans l'\u00e9conomie actuelle, et non align\u00e9s avec 1,5\u00b0C. Rien ne dit que les membres de l'alliance pourront trouver de quoi les (d\u00e9)placer dans des projets compatibles 1,5 \u00b0C. \n\nEn fait c'est m\u00eame l'inverse qui est certain : tant que l'\u00e9conomie mondiale est \u00e0 3\u00b0C, les actifs de cette \u00e9conomie sont en moyenne \u00e0 la m\u00eame temp\u00e9rature ! Et 130.000 milliards c'est beaucoup trop, compar\u00e9 \u00e0 la taille de l'\u00e9conomie, pour pouvoir trouver de quoi tout mettre sur du 1,5 \u00b0C. Et c'est bien parce que les investisseurs ne sont pas \u00e0 m\u00eame de changer la donne tous seuls que la GFANZ a commenc\u00e9 par demander un gros coup de main aux Etats...\n\n\"Les gestionnaires d'actifs rejoignent tr\u00e8s vite ces alliances mais il n'est pas certain qu'ils comprennent ce que cela implique\" fait remarquer une personne interview\u00e9e dans l'article. Cette phrase rejoint une tribune \u00e9crite il y a d\u00e9sormais quasiment 2 ans sur la validit\u00e9 des d\u00e9clarations des acteurs du secteur financier : https://lnkd.in/gdEjKji\n\nJ'y plaidais pour que ces coalitions (\u00e0 l'\u00e9poque les Principles for Responsible Investing des Nations Unies) refusent tout signataire qui n'aurait pas pris pour lui-m\u00eame un engagement v\u00e9rifi\u00e9 de formation massive et de comptabilit\u00e9 carbone \"au quotidien\" d\u00e9ploy\u00e9e \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle. 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"trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Jean-Marc Jancovici explique pourquoi le num\u00e9rique est mauvais pour la plan\u00e8te by rtl.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtl.fr/programmes/c-est-notre-planete/7900096069-jean-marc-jancovici-explique-pourquoi-le-numerique-est-mauvais-pour-la-planete" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Jean-Marc Jancovici explique pourquoi le num\u00e9rique est mauvais pour la plan\u00e8te" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6865600689058406400,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Ils sont sympas chez RTL : ils m'ont laiss\u00e9 dire qu'il y avait un petit sujet climat avec le m\u00e9tier... de RTL :). Plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, ma chronique d'hier a \u00e9t\u00e9 consacr\u00e9e \u00e0 l'empreinte carbone du num\u00e9rique (sujet sur lequel ceux qui ont suivi les travaux du Shift Project n'apprendront rien, mais je me suis dit que la totalit\u00e9 des auditeurs de Calvi et Ruquier n'\u00e9taient pas n\u00e9cessairement dans ce cas).\n\nRTL fait d\u00e9sormais partie, aujourd'hui, de cette galaxie num\u00e9rique : tout ce qui permet \u00e0 un studio de radio de fonctionner, c'est du num\u00e9rique. Tout ce qui permet aux auditeurs d'\u00e9couter (radios, t\u00e9l\u00e9phones, ordinateurs...), c'est du num\u00e9rique ; tout ce qui permet \u00e0 la voix et \u00e0 l'image de transiter entre le studio et les auditeurs (r\u00e9seau de t\u00e9l\u00e9com) c'est du num\u00e9rique ; toute la publicit\u00e9 affich\u00e9e sur le site Internet de RTL qui lui fournit une partie de son financement, c'est du num\u00e9rique.\n\nEt donc, je suis d\u00e9j\u00e0 content d'avoir pu dire sur une radio qui vit de la publicit\u00e9 (notamment pay\u00e9e par les op\u00e9rateurs de t\u00e9l\u00e9phonie) qu'il fallait acheter le moins d'\u00e9lectronique possible. Ca ne p\u00e8sera pas lourd face au message inverse qui sera r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9 bien plus souvent, mais on va dire que c'est mieux que rien !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6865600689058406400,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6865600689633038336,urn:li:activity:6865600689633038336,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 54, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6865600689633038336,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6865600689633038336,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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Easyjet s'engage donc \u00e0 vous accueillir \u00e0 bord d'avions sans CO2 d\u00e8s que ces derniers existeront. 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"Open article: COP26 : comment l'Asie tente de vaincre son addiction au charbon by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/asie-pacifique/cop26-comment-lasie-tente-de-vaincre-son-addiction-au-charbon-1362500" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "COP26\u00a0: comment l'Asie tente de vaincre son addiction au charbon" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6865265053868810240,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pendant longtemps le charbon a \u00e9t\u00e9 consid\u00e9r\u00e9, \u00e0 tort, comme une \u00e9nergie du pass\u00e9 dans le discours public hexagonal. Cela \u00e9tait en fait plut\u00f4t logique si l'on se basait sur le cas de la France, o\u00f9 la derni\u00e8re mine a \u00e9t\u00e9 ferm\u00e9e en 2004, apr\u00e8s une production qui a culmin\u00e9 \u00e0 la fin des ann\u00e9es 1950. \n\nMais cela n'a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas pour l'humanit\u00e9 dans son ensemble, puisque la production mondiale a augment\u00e9 de 60% entre 2000 et 2019 (en 2020 elle a baiss\u00e9). Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne a essentiellement pris place en Asie (qui utilise les 3/4 du charbon mondial), et plus encore en Chine, qui consomme \u00e0 elle seule la moiti\u00e9 de ce combustible solide (qui provient pour l'essentiel de ses mines, mais la Chine est aussi le premier importateur mondial de charbon, aux 2/3 en provenance d'Australie et d'Indon\u00e9sie).\n\nM\u00eame si cela n'a toujours pas permis d'inverser la tendance, il faut au moins saluer le fait que d\u00e9sormais la presse a remis cette \u00e9nergie \u00e0 sa juste place, c'est \u00e0 dire au centre du syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique mondial (plus d'un tiers de la production \u00e9lectrique).\n\nCe combustible est aussi au centre de nos \u00e9missions de CO2, que ce soit dans les \u00e9missions annuelles (il contribue actuellement \u00e0 plus d'\u00e9missions que le p\u00e9trole) ou en vision cumul\u00e9e depuis 1860 (o\u00f9 il arrive juste devant... la d\u00e9forestation).\n\nIl est enfin au centre de la hausse des \u00e9missions, puisque de 2000 \u00e0 2020 les \u00e9missions de CO2 dues au charbon ont augment\u00e9 - en valeur absolue - deux fois plus que celles du suiveur imm\u00e9diat, le gaz (dont les \u00e9missions ont par ailleurs augment\u00e9 de 60% dans le monde).\n\nPetit probl\u00e8me : une centrale \u00e0 charbon vit 40 ans. Donc si nous voulons viser la neutralit\u00e9 mondiale en 2050, non seulement il ne faut plus ouvrir une seule centrale \u00e0 charbon aujourd'hui, mais nous avons 30 ans pour envoyer \u00e0 la ferraille toutes celles qui existent. \n\nCes derni\u00e8res repr\u00e9sentent une puissance install\u00e9e de plus de 2000 GW, soit environ un tiers de la puissance \u00e9lectrique mondiale. Sachant que le monde moderne est incapable de se passer d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour fonctionner \"normalement\" (sans \u00e9lectrons, adieu argent, communications, justice, forces de l'ordre, fonctionnement des b\u00e2timents et des transports, et j'en passe) et que l'imm\u00e9diat prime toujours sur l'avenir, il va falloir plus que des d\u00e9clarations d'intention pour arriver \u00e0 s'en d\u00e9barrasser dans les d\u00e9lais. \n\nEt nous n'avons aucune chance d'y arriver dans les d\u00e9lais en nous bouchant le nez sur le nucl\u00e9aire. En prenant position contre la possibilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9velopper en Europe une fili\u00e8re nucl\u00e9aire vigoureuse, l'Allemagne, le Luxembourg, l'Autriche, le Danemark, et le Portugal (https://lnkd.in/dd7N9heR ) viennent de se faire avant tout les alli\u00e9s du charbon, et non avant tout des ENR. Ne nous y trompons pas." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6865265053868810240,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6865265054388887552,urn:li:activity:6865265054388887552,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 42, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6865265054388887552,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6865265054388887552,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6865265054388887552", "threadId": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8917572681172699343)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "legorafi.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: La COP 26 s\u2019engage \u00e0 recycler les promesses des autres COP by legorafi.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.legorafi.fr/2021/11/08/la-cop-26-sengage-a-recycler-les-promesses-des-autres-cop/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La COP 26 s\u2019engage \u00e0 recycler les promesses des autres COP" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6864940564912066560,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans la s\u00e9rie \"il vaut parfois mieux en rire qu'en pleurer\", le Gorafi propose un bilan de la COP qui en vaut bien un autre... et qui, h\u00e9las, est en plus relativement exact.\n\nRappelons que la seule COP qui ait vraiment produit des r\u00e9sultats est celle de Copenhague, o\u00f9 sont n\u00e9s les 2\u00b0C de limitation de la temp\u00e9rature, le fonds vert, la clause de dommages, et en fait toutes les dispositions de l'accord de Paris. Et ces r\u00e9sultats ont \u00e9t\u00e9 obtenus parce que cette COP tr\u00e8s particuli\u00e8re a \u00e9t\u00e9 le th\u00e9\u00e2tre d'une esp\u00e8ce d'OPA du G20 sur les Nations Unies pendant la nuit du Jeudi au Vendredi de la 2\u00e8 semaine.\n\nIronie de l'histoire, cette COP unanimement qualifi\u00e9e d'\u00e9chec a \u00e9t\u00e9 en fait la seule disruptive. L'avis du Gorafi sur la COP 26 en vaut donc bien un autre, et n'est peut-\u00eatre pas le plus inappropri\u00e9 qui soit !\n\nSi nous voulons que cela change, c'est devant notre porte qu'il faut commencer \u00e0 agir, car le processus onusien de la Convention Climat n'est en fait pas pilot\u00e9 par un chef (le pr\u00e9sident de la COP distribue la parole, mais ne propose pas de projets de r\u00e9solutions r\u00e9dig\u00e9s de son propre chef, un peu comme le ferait un syndic de copropri\u00e9t\u00e9). La COP ent\u00e9rine ce que les \u00e9tats adh\u00e9rents au trait\u00e9 disent \u00eatre pr\u00eats \u00e0 faire.\n\nLa COP sera donc r\u00e9ussie le jour o\u00f9 les Etats participants auront l'absolue certitude que le probl\u00e8me est en train de se r\u00e9gler chez eux \u00e0 la bonne vitesse. D'ici l\u00e0, il serait dangereux de faire d'une \"COP r\u00e9ussie\" le seul signal qui d\u00e9clenche le passage \u00e0 l'action." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6864940564912066560,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6864940565331492864,urn:li:activity:6864940565331492864,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 31, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6864940565331492864,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6864940565331492864,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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automobile" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6864615560878006272,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Que doit devenir l'industrie automobile dans une \u00e9conomie qui se d\u00e9carbone ? La voiture, c'est plus de 2 millions d'emplois dans l'Hexagone si l'on compte \"au sens large\", en incluant les garagistes, distributeurs, am\u00e9nageurs d'infrastructures, etc. \n\nDu reste, la \"fili\u00e8re auto\" a toujours largement fait valoir sa part dans l'emploi pour r\u00e9sister aux contraintes qu'il serait souhaitable de lui imposer au regard de la lutte contre le changement climatique.\n\nL'\u00e9lectrification n'\u00e9vacue pas le d\u00e9bat, puisqu'elle demande moins de main d'oeuvre pour la construction (une voiture \u00e9lectrique est plus simple qu'une thermique) et beaucoup moins pour l'entretien. Du coup, quel avenir peut-on imaginer pour cette fili\u00e8re avec de moins en moins de combustibles fossiles en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral et de p\u00e9trole en particulier ?\n\nDans le cadre du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise, The Shift Project vous convie \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sentation du volet \"industrie automobile\" Jeudi 18 novembre \u00e0 18h.\n\nInscription libre et gratuite (mais inscription quand m\u00eame !)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6864615560878006272,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6864615561486180352,urn:li:activity:6864615561486180352,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 20, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6864615561486180352,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", 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par Christophe Blain !).\n\nApr\u00e8s, il ne faut pas \u00eatre grand clerc pour comprendre que si un actif est valoris\u00e9 \u00e0 z\u00e9ro, sa destruction vaut par convention... z\u00e9ro. C'est la raison pour laquelle il sera \u00e0 tout jamais impossible de justifier de la pertinence d'agir pour pr\u00e9server l'environnement au nom d'un b\u00e9n\u00e9fice \u00e9conomique. \n\nSi nous voulons agir, il faut accepter que le raisonnement \"s'inverse\" entre \u00e9conomie et environnement : d'abord nous nous donnons des objectifs physiques - en terme d'\u00e9missions maximales, d'espace maximal consomm\u00e9, de ressources consomm\u00e9es (m\u00e9taux, bois...), et ensuite seulement nous regardons quelle \"\u00e9conomie\" peut tenir dans cette boite physique. C'est incidemment cette d\u00e9marche que nous avons tent\u00e9 de commencer \u00e0 conceptualiser dans le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ).\n\nTant que nous ferons l'inverse, nous irons tout droit non vers le monde infini, qui n'existe pas, mais vers la r\u00e9gulation involontaire. Cette derni\u00e8re porte de vilains noms : contraction involontaire de la population (famines ou maladies) ou de l'\u00e9conomie (crise), et menacera la paix (qui est un bien pr\u00e9cieux - ce 11 novembre est l\u00e0 pour le rappeler) et la d\u00e9mocratie.\n\nDans les mesures qui seraient donc utiles pour avancer, il y a notamment de former la totalit\u00e9 des gens qui \"pensent \u00e9conomie\" aux enjeux \u00e9nergie climat. Cela ne prend que 20h par personne ; les outils existent (vid\u00e9os, Fresque du Climat, livres...), et c'est une des conditions non contournables d'une politique pertinente de pr\u00e9servation du substrat physique et biologique sur lequel l'humanit\u00e9, telle une colonie de bact\u00e9ries, prosp\u00e8re.\n\nDans les personnes qui \"pensent \u00e9conomie\" il y a certes les gestionnaires d'entreprises, qui devraient s'y mettre un peu plus s\u00e9rieusement qu'aujourd'hui (https://lnkd.in/ea7CrktT ) mais aussi... leur minist\u00e8re de tutelle. \n\nBruno Le Maire, partant pour mettre en oeuvre un programme de formation massif \u00e0 Bercy :) ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6864513382616199168,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6864513383119523840,urn:li:activity:6864513383119523840,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 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Parce que viennent de s'ouvrir dans notre pays les \"assises de la for\u00eat et du bois\", au cours desquelles 4 groupes de travail vont devoir formuler des propositions concernant le r\u00f4le de la for\u00eat et du bois comme puits de carbone, comme r\u00e9servoir de biodiversit\u00e9, comme ressource \u00e9conomique, et comme \"objet territorial\" : https://lnkd.in/dKhMREVn\n\nCouvrant 25% du territoire m\u00e9tropolitain, les arbres pont longtemps repr\u00e9sent\u00e9, avec la pierre et un peu de fer, la seule ressource \u00e0 notre disposition pour b\u00e2tir, nous d\u00e9placer (charrettes, navires...), fa\u00e7onner notre mobilier et nombre d'outils.\n\nL'arriv\u00e9e du charbon (qui a permis de produire de l'acier en masse et d'alimenter les po\u00eales), du p\u00e9trole (qui nous a donn\u00e9 le plastique) puis du gaz (chauffage) les a ensuite rel\u00e9gu\u00e9s au second plan comme mat\u00e9riau de construction ou comme combustible. \n\nIl restait cependant une fonction r\u00e9cr\u00e9ative, qui a pris de plus en plus d'importance au 20\u00e8 si\u00e8cle. Cette fonction - qui demande que les arbres restent debout - est d\u00e9sormais antagoniste avec la production de bois d'oeuvre, qui a retrouv\u00e9 un second souffle avec le souhait de d\u00e9carboner la construction, puisqu'il faut bien couper les arbres pour en faire des poutres !\n\nVient se rajouter \u00e0 cela une difficult\u00e9 majeure : le changement climatique. Ce dernier va mettre \u00e0 mal nombre d'esp\u00e8ces (voir \u00e0 ce propos le tr\u00e8s bon site https://climessences.fr/ qui permet de voir comment se d\u00e9placeront les zones favorables \u00e0 une esp\u00e8ce donn\u00e9e), ce qui pose un cas de conscience : faut-il couper pr\u00e9matur\u00e9ment des arbres qui vont mourir de toute fa\u00e7on pour planter \u00e0 la place des esp\u00e8ces qui r\u00e9sisteront au climat futur ? \n\nEn 3 minutes, il n'\u00e9tait \u00e9videmment pas question de donner des r\u00e9ponses. Je me suis content\u00e9 de lister (une partie) des questions, qui n'int\u00e9ressent malheureusement pas suffisamment les pouvoirs publics pour que nous puissions arbitrer au mieux ce que nous faisons du 2\u00e8 massif europ\u00e9en (et probablement le plus diversifi\u00e9). On ne sait malheureusement pas faire une licorne \u00e0 un milliard avec un ch\u00eane ou un \u00e9pic\u00e9a 1.0 ..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6864258986783322113,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6864258987521531904,urn:li:activity:6864258987521531904,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 32, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6864258987521531904,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6864258987521531904,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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critiquer la strat\u00e9gie allemande sur le nucl\u00e9aire, cela me vaut... la possibilit\u00e9 de franchir virtuellement le Rhin, avec une interview dans Die Welt, un des 3 grands quotidiens allemands.\n\nCette interview est, \u00e9tonnamment puisque la BD n'est pas disponible dans la langue de Goethe, une cons\u00e9quence de la parution du \"Monde sans Fin\", o\u00f9 il est certes question de nucl\u00e9aire, mais sur une vingtaine de pages sur 200, en gros. \n\nL'interview elle-m\u00eame concerne beaucoup l'atome, mais pas que. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7121957494098150162)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtbf.be \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Sortie du nucl\u00e9aire : les centrales \u00e0 gaz des Awirs et de Vilvorde vont recevoir des subsides by rtbf.be", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_sortie-du-nucleaire-les-centrales-a-gaz-des-awirs-et-de-vilvorde-vont-recevoir-des-subsides?id=10870819" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Sortie du nucl\u00e9aire\u00a0: les centrales \u00e0 gaz des Awirs et de Vilvorde vont recevoir des subsides" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6863873825902219264,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A la veille de la COP, la Belgique a annonc\u00e9 qu'elle allait subventionner 10 \u00e0 30 Mt de CO2 suppl\u00e9mentaires par an en aidant des centrales \u00e0 gaz pour prendre le relais d'un nucl\u00e9aire ferm\u00e9 pr\u00e9matur\u00e9ment pour cause \"non technique\" : https://lnkd.in/dJpxXF9N\n\nTout comme Hollande avait fait pr\u00e9c\u00e9der la loi de transition de 2015 d'un \"d\u00e9bat\" dont la conclusion sur le nucl\u00e9aire (il faut le baisser \u00e0 50%) \u00e9tait \u00e9crite d'avance (c'\u00e9tait une promesse de campagne), le gouvernement belge a fait pr\u00e9c\u00e9der sa d\u00e9cision - elle aussi promise politiquement - d'un rapport rendu par le Conseil Sup\u00e9rieur de la Sant\u00e9 qui conclut que \"(...) sur le plan environnemental, \u00e9thique et sanitaire, l\u2019\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire de fission, telle que d\u00e9ploy\u00e9e actuellement, ne peut pas pr\u00e9tendre satisfaire aux principes du d\u00e9veloppement durable.\" : https://lnkd.in/dByJZQyT\n\nLa lecture de cet \"avis scientifique\" est cependant une grande source d'\u00e9tonnement. Tout d'abord une profession enti\u00e8re est explicitement accus\u00e9e de collusion sans preuves, au sein du \u00a7 1.5 (sur les risques sur la sant\u00e9). Il est \u00e9crit que \"L\u2019\u00e9valuation des effets des radiations ionisantes sur la sant\u00e9 humaine est en pratique concentr\u00e9e dans deux organismes internationaux (...) Une telle concentration dans des groupes \u00e0 la composition tr\u00e8s r\u00e9duite (moins de 30 membres \u00e0 l\u2019UNSCEAR et une douzaine dans l\u2019ICRP) pr\u00e9sente le risque de g\u00e9n\u00e9rer une sorte d\u2019effet club (...) l\u2019expertise concernant la sant\u00e9 et l\u2019environnement pr\u00e9sente, dans le monde nucl\u00e9aire, de s\u00e9rieux probl\u00e8mes d\u2019ind\u00e9pendance\".\n\nCes affirmations sont d'une part factuellement fausses (il existe des - dizaines de ? - milliers de m\u00e9decins \u00e9tudiant les effets des rayonnements ionisants sur la sant\u00e9 dans des centaines de labos dans le monde), et d'autre part pour mettre \u00e0 l'index un organisme des Nations Unies (l'UNSCEAR) qui a le m\u00eame mandat que le GIEC (il synth\u00e9tise et non \u00e9tudie) il faut des faits opposables qui ne figurent nulle part dans le document. 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6863757882614132737,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le parlement vient d'adopter une loi pour r\u00e9duire l'empreinte environnementale du num\u00e9rique (pour les curieux, le texte est l\u00e0 : https://lnkd.in/dYN7ZuTM ; le descriptif et l'expos\u00e9 des motifs sur le site du S\u00e9nat sont l\u00e0 : https://lnkd.in/dxmNxGw8 ).\n\nLe verre \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 vide est \u00e9videmment que cette loi, sur laquelle il est peu probable que l'on revienne avant quelques ann\u00e9es, n'est pas suffisante pour limiter l'inflation de l'empreinte carbone de ce secteur, tir\u00e9e par l'augmentation de la vid\u00e9o en ligne, surtout juste apr\u00e8s que l'Etat ait d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de \"pousser au crime\" en lan\u00e7ant la 5G.\n\nEn effet, les \"grosses\" mesures sur le num\u00e9rique consistent \u00e0 limiter la rotation du parc de terminaux, \u00e0 pousser le consommateur \u00e0 acheter les plus petits possibles (diagonale d'\u00e9cran r\u00e9duite, m\u00e9moire et processeur limit\u00e9s au minimum), et \u00e0 limiter les d\u00e9bits (sachant que 75% du trafic environ est de la vid\u00e9o), donc le nombre d'heures de visionnage et la d\u00e9finition de l'image.\n\nCette loi se limite souvent \u00e0 des mesures d'information ou de \"sensibilisation\". Quelques dispositions r\u00e9ellement contraignantes y figurent quand m\u00eame, comme par exemple la possibilit\u00e9 (qui s'impose aux fournisseurs d'\u00e9quipements) pour les utilisateurs de terminaux de refuser les mises \u00e0 jour logicielles automatiques (qui souvent conduisent \u00e0 une \"inflation\" logicielle, ralentissent les performances et du coup incitent \u00e0 prendre un nouveau terminal).\n\nMais il n'en reste pas moins que c'est une premi\u00e8re dans notre pays, et probablement une premi\u00e8re (ou une des premi\u00e8res) au monde. Et ce texte poss\u00e8de d'autres caract\u00e9ristiques int\u00e9ressantes :\n- il a \u00e9t\u00e9 vot\u00e9 \u00e0 l'initiative du S\u00e9nat, non de l'Assembl\u00e9e ou du gouvernement, ce qui est rare,\n- il a \u00e9t\u00e9 propos\u00e9 par un s\u00e9nateur LR, et non un EELV (ou un LREM) ; il montre donc qu'il est parfois possible d'avoir un accord de la gauche \u00e0 la droite de l'\u00e9chiquier politique sur des sujets environnementaux,\n- il fait suite \u00e0 une mission d'information du S\u00e9nat, qui avait \u00e9t\u00e9 pilot\u00e9e par le s\u00e9nateur qui a propos\u00e9 le projet de loi, et cette mission d'information... a elle-m\u00eame fait suite aux travaux du Shift Project sur le sujet (https://lnkd.in/ggXYjrX ). Il est donc possible (bigre !) que notre modeste think tank ait jou\u00e9 un petit r\u00f4le dans l'\u00e9mergence de cette loi.\n \nIl fallait une premi\u00e8re fois, ce qui est donc chose faite. Mais il faudra y revenir, id\u00e9alement le plus vite possible. En effet, ce num\u00e9rique, d\u00e9sormais indispensable aux fonctions les plus essentielles du pays (coordonner, alimenter, payer...), est totalement d\u00e9pendant de mines et d'acteurs situ\u00e9s hors du pays, et induit des \u00e9missions qui augmentent au lieu de baisser. Cela devrait nous interroger un peu plus que nous ne le faisons aujourd'hui." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6863757882614132737,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6863757883293609984,urn:li:activity:6863757883293609984,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 80, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6863757883293609984,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6863757883293609984,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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servir du 7\u00e8 art pour \u00e9voquer\u00a0des enjeux de la transition bas carbone, en organisant des projections de films \u00e0 th\u00e8me suivies de tables rondes pour d\u00e9battre autour du th\u00e8me \u00e9voqu\u00e9. \n\nJe participerai pour ma part au d\u00e9bat intitul\u00e9 \"Le droit, issue ou impasse pour responsabiliser les entreprises ?\" qui suivra la projection, le 19 novembre \u00e0 20h \u00e0 Paris, du film Dark Waters. Les autres intervenantes (vu qu'il y a une majorit\u00e9 de femmes, je fais un f\u00e9minin global, d\u00e9sol\u00e9 Fabrice :) ) seront Cl\u00e9mentine Baldon, Delphine Batho, Fabrice Bonnifet, et Ang\u00e8le Pr\u00e9ville, S\u00e9natrice du Lot.\n\nTous les d\u00e9tails de toutes les s\u00e9ances, et la billetterie pour s'inscrire (pour pas trop cher, parce que les organisatrices - allez hop, encore un f\u00e9minin global, vu que l'organisatrice en chef est une femme - et les participant(e)s aux d\u00e9bats sont tous b\u00e9n\u00e9voles, mais il faut quand m\u00eame payer le cin\u00e9ma !) sont accessibles via le site." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6863385751661379584,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6863385752131145728,urn:li:activity:6863385752131145728,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 12, "links": [] }, 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false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Oil Sands Pathways to Net Zero" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6863181549114818560,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Avez vous entendu parler des sables bitumineux du Canada ? Il s'agit, comme leur nom l'indique, d'un m\u00e9lange de bitume (du p\u00e9trole qui a perdu ses \u00e9l\u00e9ments volatils) et de sable, que l'on trouve dans l'Athabasca, au Canada (\u00e9tat de l'Alberta).\n\nA partir de ce m\u00e9lange solide et p\u00e2teux, on tire du p\u00e9trole de synth\u00e8se en passant par les op\u00e9rations suivantes :\n- historiquement, on rasait la for\u00eat pour ensuite cr\u00e9er une mine \u00e0 ciel ouvert, avec des \u00e9normes pelleteuses venant extraire le m\u00e9lange sable-bitume,\n- ce dernier est ensuite \"upgrad\u00e9\" dans des esp\u00e8ces de raffineries, o\u00f9 il est trait\u00e9 avec de la vapeur qui extrait le bitume en le fluidifiant, lequel bitume est ensuite transform\u00e9 en p\u00e9trole de synth\u00e8se en enlevant du carbone en exc\u00e8s et en rajoutant de l'hydrog\u00e8ne (https://lnkd.in/dAMVmbGk ). \n\nCes op\u00e9rations sont tr\u00e8s \u00e9nergivores, puisque de l'ordre du cinqui\u00e8me au quart de l'\u00e9nergie contenue dans le bitume extrait est perdue pendant ces transformations.\n\nD\u00e9sormais on ne rase plus la for\u00eat pour les nouveaux gisements : la vapeur est inject\u00e9e dans le sable, et le bitume fluidifi\u00e9 est remont\u00e9 en surface. Mais cela reste un \"p\u00e9trole\" o\u00f9 l'\u00e9nergie d'extraction et de traitement est tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9e. L'\u00e9nergie de traitement est fournie avec du gaz. \n\nEn 2020, le Canada a produit 250 millions de tonnes de p\u00e9trole, dont l'essentiel vient de ces sables bitumineux. Ce p\u00e9trole va donner environ 750 millions de tonnes de CO2 lors de sa combustion (en fait un peu moins parce qu'une partie sert \u00e0 faire du plastique mais l'ordre de grandeur y est).\n\nL'industrie canadienne des sables bitumineux explique sur un site d\u00e9di\u00e9 qu'elle va atteindre le \"net zero\" en 2050. Ah, se dira le profane, ca veut dire qu'ils ont trouv\u00e9 un truc pour que leur p\u00e9trole soit br\u00fbl\u00e9 sans CO2 ? Ou bien qu'ils mettent la cl\u00e9 sous la porte ?\n\nQue nenni, cela signifie qu'ils veulent capturer et s\u00e9questrer le CO2 \u00e9mis pour l'extraction et le traitement des sables, voire une partie seulement. Le communiqu\u00e9 de presse - https://lnkd.in/dkpbayqa - mentionne en effet 68 millions de tonnes de CO2 qui seront captur\u00e9es puis s\u00e9questr\u00e9es, soit environ 10% de ce qui est \u00e9mis par la combustion (mais comme l'\u00e9nergie utilis\u00e9e sur place est du gaz il est possible que l'essentiel y soit).\n\nC'est toujours bon \u00e0 prendre. Mais de l\u00e0 \u00e0 dire implicitement que cela rend cette extraction inoffensive pour le climat, il y a une marge ! D'une mani\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, ne regarder que les \u00e9missions directes pour r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 sa trajectoire de neutralt\u00e9 est ne pas bien d\u00e9finir le probl\u00e8me. Des mauvaises langues pourraient m\u00eame parler de greenwashing :)\n\nQue faire si lire cela vous h\u00e9risse le poil ? Contribuer comme vous pouvez pour que l'humanit\u00e9 consomme de moins en moins de p\u00e9trole. Rousp\u00e9ter ne p\u00e8sera pas lourd tant qu'il y aura de la demande..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6863181549114818560,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6863181549693624320,urn:li:activity:6863181549693624320,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 25, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6863181549693624320,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6863181549693624320,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: [Entracte - BD] Le monde sans fin de Jancovici et Blain, la BD \u00e0 offrir aux participants de la COP26 et aux autres by usinenouvelle.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/entracte-bd-le-monde-sans-fin-de-jancovici-et-blain-la-bd-a-offrir-aux-participants-de-la-cop26-et-aux-autres.N1155572" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "[Entracte - BD] Le monde sans fin de Jancovici et Blain, la BD \u00e0 offrir aux participants de la COP26 et aux autres" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6863076052835569664,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Usine Nouvelle, media qui, comme son nom l'indique, s'adresse au monde industriel, nous fait le plaisir de qualifier \"Le Monde sans Fin\" de \"oeuvre de salubrit\u00e9 publique\", dans une recension qui contient cette phrase \u00f4 combien opportune en pleine COP : \"La science n'est rien sans des relais politiques.\".\n\nEn fait il s'agit bien l\u00e0 de la science qui d\u00e9crit l'\u00e9tat de l'environnement, non celle qui est le pr\u00e9alable \u00e0 une nouvelle innovation technique, car, comme je l'avais not\u00e9 dans une ancienne chronique, les deux n'ont pas le m\u00eame statut aupr\u00e8s des gouvernant(e)s : https://lnkd.in/gH3DgcH\n\nLa recension se termine par cette phrase : \"Quel consensus peut-on construire, quand la mont\u00e9e des p\u00e9rils risque de renforcer le chacun pour soi et la zizanie plut\u00f4t que la solidarit\u00e9 ?\". C'est tr\u00e8s exactement \u00e0 cette question que nous nous sommes attaqu\u00e9s au sein du Shift Project quand nous avons d\u00e9marr\u00e9 le \"plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\" : https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU\n\nEntre COP, pr\u00e9sidence fran\u00e7aise \u00e0 venir de l'Union, et \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles et l\u00e9gislatives chez nous, les occasions ne vont pas manquer de d\u00e9battre des sujets climatiques et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques (qui ont un lien avec tout, y compris avec l'immigration qui est par ailleurs tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9sente dans le d\u00e9bat public en ce moment).\n\nNotre modeste ambition est de permettre que ce d\u00e9bat se fasse avec \"les yeux en face des trous\" sur le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter. Les malentendus sur les processus \u00e0 l'oeuvre et les ordres de grandeur nous ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait perdre trop de temps." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6863076052835569664,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6863076053338886144,urn:li:activity:6863076053338886144,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 71, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6863076053338886144,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6863076053338886144,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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Du p\u00e9trole, mais il y en a bien assez pour faire \"p\u00e9ter le climat\", non ?\n\nC'est un article qui s'attaque \u00e0 LA bonne question quand il s'agit d'\u00e9nergie. Cette question n'est pas de savoir combien il sort des gisements (de p\u00e9trole, de gaz et de charbon), mais quelle fraction de ce qui sort de ces gisements est effectivement disponible pour alimenter le grand costume d'Ironman qui d\u00e9sormais travaille pour nous. \n\nCar, pour \"produire\" de l'\u00e9nergie, il faut... de l'\u00e9nergie. Extraire du p\u00e9trole demande des puits, plates-formes en mer, ol\u00e9oducs, bateaux pour le transport... qu'il faut construire puis faire fonctionner (\u00e9nergie de pompage, d'injection d'eau, de gaz ou de CO2 pour mieux \"racler\" les gisements, etc). Pour transformer le bitume des sables canadiens en \"p\u00e9trole\" fluide, il faut casser de longues chaines carbon\u00e9es en plus petites, ce qui demande beaucoup de chaleur, etc.\n\nL'\u00e9nergie qu'il faut utiliser pour extraire de l'\u00e9nergie de l'environnement poss\u00e8de son acronyme : EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested). Il y a m\u00eame quelques planches sur le sujet dans https://lnkd.in/dtHn5pbD !\n\nPlus ce terme est \u00e9lev\u00e9, plus il reste d'\u00e9nergie apr\u00e8s extraction pour mettre dans les camions, filatures, usines d'engrais, centrales \u00e9lectriques ou engins de mine. Si ce terme s'approche de 1, cela signifie que toute l'\u00e9nergie extraite sert... \u00e0 faire fonctionner le dispositif d'extraction. A ce moment il ne reste rien pour faire fonctionner notre costume d'Ironman. \n\nDans cet article, les auteurs ont calcul\u00e9 le p\u00e9trole \"net\" qui reste pour la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 apr\u00e8s que l'on ait d\u00e9duit l'\u00e9nergie utilis\u00e9 pour son extraction. Cela donne le graphique ci-dessous, qui dit une chose majeure : en net, nous ne retrouverons plus jamais le niveau de 2019, m\u00eame si la production brute augmente. En 2050, le net ne repr\u00e9senterait que la moiti\u00e9 du brut.\n\nCertes, l'\u00e9nergie d'extraction peut ne pas \u00eatre du p\u00e9trole. Les canadiens envisagent par exemple d'utiliser du nucl\u00e9aire pour produire la chaleur pour fluidifier le bitume in situ, et l'extraire plus facilement (utiliser du nucl\u00e9aire pour r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer plus d'\u00e9nergie fossile est \u00e9videmment totalement contreproductif pour le climat). Cette \u00e9nergie d'extraction peut aussi \u00eatre du gaz.\n\nNB : ce graphique ne tient pas compte du raffinage (qui consomme 10% \u00e0 15% du p\u00e9trole extrait).\n\nConvergent avec l'analyse du Shift Project (https://lnkd.in/dqWtnMPi ), cet article nous rappelle une dure r\u00e9alit\u00e9 : la transition va s'op\u00e9rer en contraction de moyens, car le p\u00e9trole reste le sang du monde moderne." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6862705285983678464,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6862705286675750912,urn:li:activity:6862705286675750912,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 68, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6862705286675750912,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6862439830194810880,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Malheur \u00e0 ceux qui savent, pourrait-on penser en lisant cet article de Nature, qui donne les conclusions d'une enqu\u00eate effectu\u00e9e aupr\u00e8s des 234 auteurs du dernier rapport du GIEC sur leur degr\u00e9 d'optimisme pour l'avenir.\n\n90 d'entre eux ont r\u00e9pondu aux questions que la revue leur a pos\u00e9es. L'\u00e9chantillon n'est peut-\u00eatre pas repr\u00e9sentatif, par contre la tendance qui se d\u00e9gage des r\u00e9ponses fournies est au moins repr\u00e9sentative d'une vraie \"crise de d\u00e9fiance\" en ce qui concerne la capacit\u00e9 des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s humaines \u00e0 infl\u00e9chir la tendance \u00e0 temps.\n\nPremi\u00e8re question pos\u00e9e aux scientifiques : \u00e0 votre avis, quel est le r\u00e9chauffement que nous allons r\u00e9ellement avoir en 2100 ? Seuls 5 sur 90 ont r\u00e9pondu 1,5 \u00b0C, et 18 (sur 90 toujours) 2\u00b0C. La moiti\u00e9 opte m\u00eame pour 3\u00b0C. 3\u00b0C, soit en gros la \"ligne de pente\" vers laquelle nous sommes entra\u00een\u00e9s si la seule limite \u00e0 l'utilisation des combustibles fossiles est g\u00e9ologique.\n\nDit autrement, plus des 2/3 des scientifiques ayant r\u00e9pondu ne croient pas que nous allons tenir l'accord de Paris. Quand on sait que ces personnes l\u00e0 sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement des gens prudents, cela signifie que le doute s'est profond\u00e9ment empar\u00e9 de l'\u00e9chantillon qui a r\u00e9pondu. \n\nDeuxi\u00e8me question : \u00e9prouvez vous de l'anxi\u00e9t\u00e9, de la tristesse, ou une autre \"d\u00e9tresse\" \u00e0 cause de vos pr\u00e9occupations concernant le changement climatique ? 2/3 des r\u00e9pondant disent oui, ce qui est l\u00e0 aussi la marque d'une absence de confiance dans notre capacit\u00e9 collective \u00e0 redresser la barre \u00e0 temps.\n\nCeci allant avec cela, 80% des r\u00e9pondants ont indiqu\u00e9 que les scientifiques devaient plus s'investir dans des actions militantes, la premi\u00e8re d'entre elles \u00e9tant de diffuser le savoir. 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d\u2019un acteur \u00e0 l\u2019autre. \n\nL\u2019initiative\u00a0ACT\u00a0co-port\u00e9e par l\u2019ADEME et le CDP, ainsi que la\u00a0Net Zero initiative\u00a0port\u00e9e par Carbone 4, visent \u00e0 cadrer l\u2019action et la communication des entreprises en vue de faciliter et rendre compte de leurs alignements vis-\u00e0-vis de trajectoires de d\u00e9carbonation respectant l\u2019Accord de Paris. \n\n\u2753 Quels sont les points cl\u00e9s d\u2019une appropriation r\u00e9ussie et ambitieuse de l\u2019objectif de neutralit\u00e9 carbone par les entreprises\u00a0?\n\u2753 Quelles contributions des entreprises \u00e0 l\u2019atteinte de la neutralit\u00e9 carbone plan\u00e9taire\u00a0?\n\u2753 Quelle redevabilit\u00e9 climatique des entreprises vis-\u00e0-vis de leurs engagements en mati\u00e8re de neutralit\u00e9 carbone\u00a0?\n\n\u2705 Programme \n\n- Mise en contexte\u00a0: Val\u00e9rie Masson-Delmotte, directrice de recherche au CEA et copr\u00e9sidente du groupe n\u1d52 1 du GIEC\n- Pr\u00e9sentation de Net Zero Initiative et ACT\u00a0- Rodrigo Baranna Fernandes, Consultant senior chez Carbone 4, et Edouard Fourdrin, Coordinateur ACT en France, ADEME\n- T\u00e9moignages d'entreprises -\u00a0panel mod\u00e9r\u00e9 par C\u00e9sar Dugast, Co-responsable du p\u00f4le Neutralit\u00e9 chez Carbone 4, et Romain Poivet, Coordinateur ACT Initiative.\n\u00a0\nD\u00e9carbonation des activit\u00e9s :\n- David LAURENT, Responsable du p\u00f4le Climat et Ressources, Entreprises pour l'Environnement (EpE)\u00a0\n- Carine de Boissezon, Directrice du d\u00e9veloppement durable, EDF\u00a0\n- H\u00e9l\u00e8ne VALADE, Directrice D\u00e9veloppement Environnement, LVMH \n\nSolutions d\u00e9carbonantes :\n- Cecile Texier, Vice President Sustainability and Corporate Social Responsibility, Alstom\u00a0\n- Gilles Vermot Desroches, Senior Vice-President Citoyennet\u00e9 et Relations Institutionnelle, Schneider Electric\n\nS\u00e9questration carbone :\n- Emmanuel Cibla, Climate Strategy Leader, Decathlon United\n- Philippe Tuzzolino, Directeur environnement, Orange\u00a0\n- Lucas Winkelmann, Charg\u00e9 de Programme Climat et Carbone, Geres\u00a0\nConclusion :\u00a0Michael Hugman, Directeur Finance Climat, Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF)\n\n\ud83c\udfa5 L'\u00e9v\u00e9nement sera diffus\u00e9 en direct sur YouTube via le lien : https://lnkd.in/ehBgrQbF" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6862302850085638144,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6862302850651865088,urn:li:activity:6862302850651865088,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 0, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6862302850651865088,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 598, "length": 20, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:29014288", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:29014288", "name": "La Fresque du Climat", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1606741293232?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=DuZLmkQnTwPRxbxoqXB9stJSA0S3kOD4-nbMbyzB25I", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1606741293232?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=efDmUfhURfn8iWvetkNpsIgnICebJeKkVSGwHpV71PI", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1606741293232?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=fPnte7Q2kxbsayYybcm9wJqBUUjCesND8I5OcFmaAWg", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQEjlFO0qGG8JA/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "la-fresque-du-climat", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:29014288", "trackingId": "43EfAJ5SQ7S8frWz8SnNGw==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Quand il est question de s'activer contre le changement climatique, d'aucuns pensent \"hydrog\u00e8ne\", \"solaire\", \"train\", \"v\u00e9g\u00e9tarisme\", \"isolation\" ou encore \"nucl\u00e9aire\" (horreur !).\n\nMais le d\u00e9but de l'histoire, l\u00e0 comme ailleurs, c'est de bien comprendre le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter, faute de quoi la \"solution\" a de grandes chances de tomber \u00e0 plat, voire d'en rajouter au probl\u00e8me.\n\nIl faut donc saluer la r\u00e9ussite d'une initiative de plus partie de notre Hexagone (apr\u00e8s le bilan carbone et la premi\u00e8re loi obligeant les entreprises \u00e0 publier un inventaire de leurs \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre), La Fresque du Climat, due \u00e0... un ancien directeur du Shift Project :).\n\nDans le monde de l'initiative priv\u00e9e, il n'y a pas de myst\u00e8re : pour que quelque chose fonctionne, il faut que le produit ou le service soit bon. Le succ\u00e8s de la Fresque est partie de l\u00e0 : le produit coche beaucoup de cases.\n\nC'est un jeu simple (il suffit des cartes imprim\u00e9es, de grandes feuilles de papier, d'un peu de ruban adh\u00e9sif et de feutres), collaboratif (donc on ne reste pas \"seul face au probl\u00e8me\"), qui demande aux participants de chercher (et on retient bien mieux ce que l'on a trouv\u00e9 en cherchant que ce que l'on a entendu dans une conf\u00e9rence), \"viral\" (apr\u00e8s avoir en avoir fait un ou deux on peut se former pour animer des s\u00e9ances pour d'autres, et donc une communaut\u00e9 se forme), et qui dure suffisamment de temps pour que l'on \"rentre dedans\", mais o\u00f9 tout tient en une s\u00e9ance.\n\nLe succ\u00e8s est donc bien m\u00e9rit\u00e9. Et l'id\u00e9e d'aller \u00e0 la COP est excellente. Car figurez vous que l'essentiel des personnes sur place n'ont pas en t\u00eate le probl\u00e8me physique \u00e0 traiter dans ses d\u00e9tails. Cela peut para\u00eetre \u00e9tonnant, mais c'est la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 que j'ai constat\u00e9e quand je suis moi-m\u00eame all\u00e9 \u00e0 des COP pour voir par moi-m\u00eame ce qui s'y passait (la derni\u00e8re fois \u00e0 Paris).\n\nSch\u00e9matiquement le lieu est \"habit\u00e9\" par trois gros bataillons :\n- les fonctionnaires, \u00e9lus, ou repr\u00e9sentants des pays qui viennent discuter le bout de gras. Il y a \u00e9galement des observateurs (des d\u00e9put\u00e9s fran\u00e7ais par exemple, ou des personnalit\u00e9s invit\u00e9es par l'Etat),\n- la presse,\n- les repr\u00e9sentants d'ONG.\n\nDans ces populations, il y a une large part qui, en fait, ne dispose pas d'une vue d'ensemble du probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter, alors m\u00eame que c'est \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence utile pour leur activit\u00e9. Si ces personnes repartent de Glasgow avec une id\u00e9e plus pr\u00e9cise du d\u00e9fi, ils ne seront pas venus pour rien !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6862300868637691904,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6862300869128404992,urn:li:activity:6862300869128404992,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 144, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6862300869128404992,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6862300869128404992,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800/0/1636008278417?e=1679529600&v=beta&t=_Fi76hKumiemavVZ7F7kyhCmSffw232G5LfY2rCS6Mk", "expiresAt": 1679529600000, "height": 445 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E22AQHXObkf15v_oQ/feedshare-shrink_" }, "displayAspectRatio": 0.5566433566433566 } ], "editableAccessibilityText": true, "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "accessibilityText": "No alternative text description for this image" } ], "showTemplateCta": false } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6861916069674721281,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A l'occasion de la COP 26, Meteo France propose une s\u00e9rie de petites vid\u00e9os p\u00e9dagogiques pour rappeler les bases du dossier scientifique du changement climatique provoqu\u00e9 par notre esp\u00e8ce : https://lnkd.in/ecrRVrJP\n\nMeteo France rappelle que l'\u00e9volution en cours ne sera pas homog\u00e8ne : l'\u00e9l\u00e9vation de temp\u00e9rature moyenne sera ainsi plus forte dans le sud de la France, et plus forte encore dans les zones de montagne, ou encore que les s\u00e9cheresses vont augmenter, ainsi que la variabilit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9cipitations, entre autres joyeuset\u00e9s.\n\nEvidemment, ce qui va nous arriver ne d\u00e9pend que marginalement de l'\u00e9volution des \u00e9missions fran\u00e7aises, puisque le climat r\u00e9pond aux \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires (pour tout comprendre merci de se rapporter \u00e0 une certaine BD tout juste parue chez Dargaud :) : https://lnkd.in/dtHn5pbD). Mais notre pays a historiquement jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le \"cr\u00e9atif\" dans l'\u00e9volution du monde qui est all\u00e9 bien au del\u00e0 de sa part dans la population ou dans l'\u00e9conomie mondiale. \n\nVouloir retrouver cette ambition dans le domaine climatique - ce qui suppose notamment de ne pas chercher \u00e0 imiter les am\u00e9ricains ou les chinois - ou les allemands dans l'\u00e9nergie - \u00e0 tout prix sans r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir plus avant - serait-il une si mauvaise id\u00e9e que cela ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6861916069674721281,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6861916070417096704,urn:li:activity:6861916070417096704,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 44, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"FIRST_STRONG", "text": "En ce d\u00e9but de COP, le World Economic Forum a fait r\u00e9aliszer un sondage sur le \"ressenti\" de divers publics (particuliers et \"business\") et de divers pays sur des questions concernant essentiellement le changement climatique : https://lnkd.in/deF2Majg\n\nOn y d\u00e9couvre que les plus proches des am\u00e9ricains, en terme de sensibilit\u00e9, sont... les asiatiques de l'Est, ce qui inclut la Chine, l'Indon\u00e9sie et le Japon (beaucoup de charbon l\u00e0-dedans). Ce sont les plus confiants dans les bienfaits de la technique, ceux qui ont la plus forte minorit\u00e9 de gens consid\u00e9rant que le changement climatique en cours n'est pas d'origine humaine (et qui n'ont pas confiance dans la science), parmi les plus optimistes sur le fait que les r\u00e9ductions d'\u00e9mission vont arriver facilement...\n\nOn pourrait donc voir comme un paradoxe que ce soit aussi ceux qui pensent le plus (\u00e0 l'exception des africains du nord) que la priorit\u00e9 doit \u00eatre donn\u00e9e \u00e0 l'environnement sur l'\u00e9conomie (graphique ci-dessous). Sauf que... le WEF a aussi propos\u00e9, avec la m\u00eame question (entre \u00e9conomie et environnement, qu'est-ce qui est prioritaire), l'option \"croissance verte\", qui consiste \u00e0 pouvoir r\u00e9pondre \"les deux sont aussi importants\" ! \n\nEt en fait ce paradoxe ne l'est qu'en apparence : \u00e0 partir du moment o\u00f9 l'on est convaincu que la technique va nous sauver, il suffit de voir la technique faire l'objet de gros investissements (ce qui est le cas en Asie) pour devenir optimiste...\n\nC'est aussi dans cette zone que l'on trouve une majorit\u00e9 de gens (oui une majorit\u00e9) qui consid\u00e8rent que les progr\u00e8s du monde \u00e9conomique pour lutter contre le changement climatique sont trop rapides ou vont \u00e0 la bonne vitesse (graphique ci-dessous). \n\nSachant que la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 des chiffres est que nous n'y sommes pas du tout, mais alors pas du tout, et que l'Asie repr\u00e9sente 80% du charbon consomm\u00e9 dans le monde, voil\u00e0 un 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ressemble, en chair, en os, et surtout en paroles, le co-auteur et dessinateur du Monde sans Fin, la FNAC (qui a quelque int\u00e9r\u00eat dans l'affaire !) vous propose cela pour le prix modique d'un terminal num\u00e9rique et d'une connexion \u00e0 Internet.\n\nJe corrige ici une petite injustice faite \u00e0 la fin, lorsque l'animateur demande que l'on cite une association que l'on soutient. J'aurais pu (du ?) en citer des dizaines qui font un travail de terrain besogneux et remarquable, de l'\u00e9ducation dans les prisons \u00e0 la distribution alimentaire dans la rue, de l'accueil des sans-abri \u00e0 la sauvegarde d'une zone \"naturelle\", de la plantation d'arbres \u00e0 la reconversion professionnelle, et cette demande de choisir une entit\u00e9 au d\u00e9triment de toute autre me g\u00eane toujours un peu. \n\nAlors j'ai choisi de citer The Shift Project, en pr\u00e9cisant que sans eux je ne serais pas o\u00f9 je suis. Mais m\u00eame l\u00e0 j'ai fait deux omissions. D'abord j'aurais aussi du inclure Les Shifters, d\u00e9sormais la deuxi\u00e8me jambe sur laquelle avance - bien plus rapidement - la \"galaxie Shift\". Deuxi\u00e8me oubli, qui n'en est pas vraiment un puisque ce n'est pas vraiment une association, j'aurais aussi du citer Carbone 4.\n\nEn effet, notre modeste entreprise a \u00e9norm\u00e9ment d\u00e9frich\u00e9 (nouvelles m\u00e9thodes, nouveaux calculs) depuis sa cr\u00e9ation, et une large partie de ce que j'ai appris ces 15 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, je ne le saurais pas sans le travail de l'\u00e9quipe que j'ai eu le plaisir d'accompagner depuis la naissance de mon employeur. 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"fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1614596361150?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=rpDGHIGtA_4yGaFUdh9VuXSkC5Jf7cl29bRNg1rsCiA", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1614596361150?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=SZO0sBQXbxYynz8dd9fVa-Jtq8ZS209SRpqIEXlQ3Os", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D0BAQGU2tYAtnGruQ/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "les-echos", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:164716", "trackingId": "Eo5AUaUlSTasAg6DEU3shA==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "A l'heure o\u00f9 d\u00e9marre celle de Glasgow, qui comme bien d'autres avant est qualifi\u00e9e de la \"derni\u00e8re chance\" (ce qui n'aide pas beaucoup, remarque \u00e0 raison Fran\u00e7ois Gemmene : https://lnkd.in/dZDib-rJ) \u00e0 quoi servent les COP ?\n\nEn 3 minutes chrono, ma petite vir\u00e9e sur les ondes de RTL rappelle que malheureusement elles ne servent \u00e0 rien de plus qu'\u00e0 ent\u00e9riner ce que nous faisons d\u00e9j\u00e0, et que c'est normal compte tenu du mode de fonctionnement des Nations Unies. \n\nL'action climatique de terrain ne suivra pas les d\u00e9cisions prises dans les COP. Les COP \u00e9tant des processus \"remontants\", c'est l'exact inverse qui peut se passer : les d\u00e9cisions des COP seront suivies d'effets quand... l'effet sera d\u00e9j\u00e0 l\u00e0 !\n\nEn pratique, cela signifie que les acteurs \"de base\" (consommateurs, citoyens, entreprises, \u00e9lus locaux) seront convaincus durs comme fer que leur premi\u00e8re priorit\u00e9 est de maintenir la stabilit\u00e9 climatique parce que la paix et l'espoir en d\u00e9pendent, et, via leurs achats, votes, prises de position, emplois, ils exerceront une pression \"de malade\" sur les instances dirigeantes pour que, de fait, la r\u00e9solution du probl\u00e8me soit prioritaire sur toute autre chose d\u00e8s qu'il y a un conflit d'objectifs.\n\nAujourd'hui, la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de terrain est que l'expansion d'une entreprise industrielle, l'ajout d'un tron\u00e7on autoroutier, la reprise du trafic a\u00e9rien (voir par exemple cette interview du patron d'Airbus Guillaume Faury dans Les Echos, o\u00f9 ne figurent ni le mot climat, ni le mot CO2, ni le mot p\u00e9trole : https://lnkd.in/dr-kbzb9), l'augmentation de la construction (donc de la production d'acier et de ciment), le d\u00e9ploiement d'une nouvelle technologie num\u00e9rique (qui va augmenter les \u00e9missions, mais c'est pas grave, on fera des licornes \u00e0 un milliard :) ), bref l'accroissement de tout flux physique est prioritaire sur la pr\u00e9servation du climat.\n\nDans ces conditions, les COP ne \"servent \u00e0 presque rien\". Elles pourraient m\u00eame donner l'impression que, ailleurs, les puissants de ce monde sont en train de faire ce qu'il faut pour que le probl\u00e8me climatique soit r\u00e9solu sans que nous, \u00e0 la base, ayons besoin de nous impliquer. 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Tant promis, tant tenu : voici la d\u00e9dicace en question. Le personnage \u00e9tant public, la d\u00e9dicace l'est aussi ! \n\nAvec Christophe, nous avons longuement h\u00e9sit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire des d\u00e9dicaces \u00e0 d'autres personnages politiques. Ce n'aurait pas \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s difficile de trouver quelque chose d'amusant et d'un peu taquin pour les ministres de l'\u00e9conomie, de l'environnement ou des transports, sans parler de l'agriculture ou de l'enseignement.\n\nEt puis nous nous sommes dits qu'en fait, au travers de cette d\u00e9dicace, c'est \u00e0 l'Etat que nous parlions, et l'Etat n'a qu'un seul repr\u00e9sentant \"ultime\" : le pr\u00e9sident. Donc il n'y aura qu'une seule d\u00e9dicace de faite, et par voie de cons\u00e9quence de publi\u00e9e ici. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7396312017321898228)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: COP26 : \u00e0 Glasgow, le sommet de la derni\u00e8re chance pour limiter l'ampleur du r\u00e9chauffement by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/enjeux-internationaux/cop26-a-glasgow-le-sommet-de-la-derniere-chance-pour-limiter-lampleur-du-rechauffement-1359481" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "COP26\u00a0: \u00e0 Glasgow, le sommet de la derni\u00e8re chance pour limiter l'ampleur du r\u00e9chauffement" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6860639253425094656,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Glasgow est-il le sommet de la derni\u00e8re chance pour limiter l'ampleur du r\u00e9chauffement climatique, comme le titrent Les Echos ? Surement, penseront nombre de personnes qui se disent que la situation commence \u00e0 sentir le roussi. Mais... un peu de plong\u00e9e dans les archives montre que cette expression a \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9e pour de nombreuses COP depuis au moins 2009, c'est \u00e0 dire la COP 15 \u00e0 Copenhague.\n\nEn effet, cette derni\u00e8re a aussi \u00e9t\u00e9 qualifi\u00e9e de \"COP de la derni\u00e8re chance\" (https://lnkd.in/d8crrt68 ), tout comme Cancun en 2010 (https://lnkd.in/dZUBFP_d ), Durban en 2011 (https://lnkd.in/dFanGtrA ), Paris en 2015 (https://lnkd.in/dNg76R8S ) ou encore Marrakech en 2016 (https://lnkd.in/dp_yNYrR )...\n\nEn fait, toutes les COP depuis celle de 1995 (la COP 1, qui s'est tenue en Allemagne, organis\u00e9e par une certaine... Angela Merkel : https://lnkd.in/dMj9aU8X) auraient m\u00e9rit\u00e9 ce superlatif. Car, d\u00e8s cette ann\u00e9e l\u00e0, il \u00e9tait facile de comprendre que, avec l'inertie des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s humaines, et celle du syst\u00e8me climatique, sans action imm\u00e9diate nous ne pourrions pas \u00e9viter les ennuis. \n\nMalheureusement la COP 26 n'est plus la COP de la derni\u00e8re chance, du moins pour limiter la hausse \u00e0 1,5 \u00b0C ou m\u00eame \u00e0 2\u00b0C. Pour ces deux objectifs il faudrait baisser les \u00e9missions de 5% \u00e0 8% par an dans les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir, c'est-\u00e0-dire - entre autres choses - d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment accepter une r\u00e9cession du PIB \"historique\" de 4% \u00e0 6% par an (tous les ans) pour les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir (https://lnkd.in/gAthJhJ ). \n\nPeut-\u00eatre que cela arrivera. Mais la seule chose de certaine est que cela n'arrivera pas par une d\u00e9cision unanime dans l'enceinte des Nations Unies : c'est juste impossible. Ce lieu n'est pas fait pour montrer la direction au monde. Il ne sert qu'\u00e0 ent\u00e9riner des d\u00e9cisions d\u00e9j\u00e0 prises par les pays pour des raisons domestiques. Il serait temps que la presse comprenne ce qu'est vraiment une COP !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6860639253425094656,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6860639253974523904,urn:li:activity:6860639253974523904,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 44, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6860639253974523904,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6860639253974523904,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8150057032499576351)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theguardian.com \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \u2018The water used to be up to your armpits\u2019: birds starve as Turkey\u2019s lakes dry up by theguardian.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/07/water-used-to-be-up-to-your-armpits-birds-starve-as-turkeys-lakes-dry-up-aoe" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u2018The water used to be up to your armpits\u2019: birds starve as Turkey\u2019s lakes dry up" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6860165318489214976,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un des lacs turcs (le lac Tuz) a r\u00e9cemment \"fait l'actualit\u00e9\"... parce que ce n'est plus un lac (il est compl\u00e8tement \u00e0 sec).\n\nEn fait, c'est malheureusement le point d'orgue d'un processus plus large qui a vu les lacs turcs s'ass\u00e9cher progressivement sur les 50 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, avec un effet d'amplification qui est le suivant : \u00e0 cause du r\u00e9chauffement climatique, il pleut moins et l'\u00e9vaporation augmente. Les lacs sont d'une part moins aliment\u00e9s, et par ailleurs plus pr\u00e9lev\u00e9s, \u00e0 la fois par l'\u00e9vaporation, et par l'irrigation qui augmente aussi pour compenser la baisse des pr\u00e9cipitations sur les surfaces cultivables.\n\nLa Turquie a par ailleurs connu un \u00e9pisode caniculaire s\u00e9v\u00e8re cet \u00e9t\u00e9 (avec des feux de for\u00eats in\u00e9dits), qui a suffisamment amplifi\u00e9 ce processus pour mettre \u00e0 sec le 2\u00e8 lac du pays, d'o\u00f9 \"l'actu\". En fait ce n'est pas une \"actu\" au sens o\u00f9 c'est \"nors norme\". C'est malheureusement la nouvelle norme. \n\nL'adaptation du Proche et de Moyen Orient \u00e0 la s\u00e9cheresse croissante (https://lnkd.in/dt4kZjdf ) risque fort de ne pas vraiment en \u00eatre une au sens o\u00f9 \"on fait ce qu'il faut et tout se passe bien\". Le stress alimentaire qui en d\u00e9coulera va provoquer de nouveaux remous, \u00e0 la fois sur place et chez nous. \n\nEsp\u00e9rons que Glasgow sera aussi (et avant tout) l'occasion de se remettre les yeux en face des trous, et de comprendre que l'ordre des priorit\u00e9s du monde de demain ne sera plus celui du monde d'hier. Pour le moment, nous n'y sommes pas vraiment." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6860165318489214976,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6860165318917021696,urn:li:activity:6860165318917021696,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 23, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6860165318917021696,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6860165318917021696,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6860165318917021696", 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L'accouchement s'est d\u00e9roul\u00e9 presque sans douleur et le b\u00e9b\u00e9 de 1,4 kg se porte bien.\n\nLe titre de cet album aurait \u00e9ventuellement pu \u00eatre \"tout ce que vous avez toujours voulu savoir sur le climat et l'\u00e9nergie sans avoir jamais eu le courage de vous y attaquer\". Nous esp\u00e9rons que la forme - les images, c'est quand m\u00eame plus digeste que les mots, surtout quand elles sont issues du talent de Christophe - et l'humour - que nous avons privil\u00e9gi\u00e9 partout o\u00f9 c'\u00e9tait possible, et m\u00eame parfois quand ca ne l'\u00e9tait pas - permettra au propos de s'aventurer en dehors de la sph\u00e8re des initi\u00e9(e)s. \n\nBonne lecture pour celles et ceux qui s'y risqueront !\n\nNB1 : au risque de me r\u00e9p\u00e9ter, si vous pouvez vous procurer ces images en couleurs en \u00e9vitant les gafa, je ne m'en plaindrai pas, on va dire :)" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6859785109617295360,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6859785110091268096,urn:li:activity:6859785110091268096,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 161, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": 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Dans cette empreinte il y a des \u00e9missions import\u00e9es, qui ne font l'objet d'aucun engagement de notre pays. Par ailleurs, elles vont avec un alourdissement de notre d\u00e9ficit commercial. \n\nSi nous arrivions \u00e0 relocaliser une partie de la fabrication en France, avec une \u00e9nergie moins carbon\u00e9e que celle de l'ancien pays de fabrication, nous gagnerions sur le plan de l'empreinte carbone et sur celui de la balance commerciale. \n\nUne telle relocalisation peut parfaitement se marier avec de la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 : nous consommons moins, proportionnellement plus local. Un exemple parmi d'autres serait d'arr\u00eater d'acheter des voitures import\u00e9es (c'est le cas de beaucoup de mod\u00e8les) pour acheter des v\u00e9los \u00e9lectriques que nous nous mettrions \u00e0 fabriquer en France (ainsi que les pi\u00e8ces \u00e0 l'amont : cadres, jantes, d\u00e9railleurs...).\n\nDu reste, dans ses sc\u00e9narios publi\u00e9s r\u00e9cemment, RTE explore la voie d'une \"r\u00e9industrialisation profonde\" du pays. La production \u00e9lectrique devrait \u00eatre plus importante, mais si elle est bien d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e l'empreinte du pays baisse plus vite que dans le sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence.\n\nIl serait donc souhaitable que d\u00e9sormais chaque politique publique \"pour le climat\" regarde les choses \u00e0 la fois sous l'angle des \u00e9missions domestiques et sous l'angle de l'empreinte carbone." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6859556269187993600,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6859556270790201344,urn:li:activity:6859556270790201344,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 64, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6859556270790201344,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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en Seine, une esp\u00e8ce de \"festival\" consacr\u00e9 aux medias, et qui a eu lieu le 12 octobre dernier, avait organis\u00e9 en ouverture une \"discussion\" entre plusieurs patrons de r\u00e9daction (TF1, Les Echos, l'AFP) et votre serviteur : https://lnkd.in/dndkcXEe\n\nLe th\u00e8me de la \"table ronde\" \u00e9tait : \"Climat, biodiversit\u00e9 : un d\u00e9fi syst\u00e9mique pour les grandes r\u00e9dactions d'information\". J'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 autoris\u00e9 \u00e0 faire 10 minutes d'expos\u00e9 introductif sur le d\u00e9fi \u00e9nergie climat (rien que du tr\u00e8s classique), suivi d'une discussion sur le th\u00e8me \"comment les r\u00e9dactions s'emparent du probl\u00e8me\". \n\nC'est dans ce cadre que j'ai \u00e9voqu\u00e9 \"7 p\u00e9ch\u00e9s environnementaux des medias\" (remis en commentaire) en proposant \u00e0 mes interlocuteurs de r\u00e9agir sur le sujet.\n\nEn une heure nous n'avons fait qu'effleurer le sujet. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Quand le r\u00e9chauffement climatique se traduit en catastrophes by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/sciences-prospective/quand-le-rechauffement-climatique-se-traduit-en-catastrophes-1357605" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Quand le r\u00e9chauffement climatique se traduit en catastrophes" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6859162370103619584,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'inondation en Allemagne de cet \u00e9t\u00e9 aurait-elle eu lieu sans changement climatique ? Quid pour le \"d\u00f4me de chaleur\" canadien de cet \u00e9t\u00e9 ? Pour l'ouragan Ida qui a engendr\u00e9 des records de pr\u00e9cipitations dans l'Est des USA ?\n\nLes chercheurs utilisent d\u00e9sormais les mod\u00e8les pour simuler la fr\u00e9quence d'occurrence de ce genre de ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne dans un climat non modifi\u00e9 par les \u00e9missions humaines, et dans le climat modifi\u00e9. \n\nLa limite est la r\u00e9solution du mod\u00e8le. Ainsi, une vague de chaleur qui couvre une zone qui fait plus de mille km de diam\u00e8tre est un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne bien au-dessus de la maille (typiquement de l'ordre de la centaine de km pour un mod\u00e8le o\u00f9 la r\u00e9solution est la m\u00eame en tout point du globe) et donc peut faire l'objet d'une d\u00e9tection dans un mod\u00e8le. \n\nPour un ouragan, il faut plut\u00f4t une maille de 25 km pour pouvoir mod\u00e9liser correctement ce qui se passe et donc faire une \u00e9tude d'attribution. \n\nC'est la raison pour laquelle le monde scientifique est parfois r\u00e9ticent \u00e0 affirmer que \"c'est \u00e0 cause du r\u00e9chauffement climatique\". Ce n'est pas que ce n'est pas le cas, c'est juste que de le d\u00e9montrer formellement avec les outils num\u00e9riques disponibles reste impossible. Mais ca ne doit pas nous inciter \u00e0 rester les bras crois\u00e9s, \u00e9videmment !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6859162370103619584,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6859162370594365442,urn:li:activity:6859162370594365442,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 26, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6859162370594365442,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6859162370594365442,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1517753533896?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=W3QkU_4RvX1yj7zHrbqqR4iWSuOfA0PwaLVC4vdv-aU", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C5603AQHa8GrQhk68DQ/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "VCj7xnmaSlqLnNa7gYbARA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Les Echos Start (le suppl\u00e9ment des Echos consacr\u00e9 \u00e0 la formation) publie un dossier complet sur la mobilisation (ou pas) des grandes \u00e9coles sur la transition \u00e9cologique. \n\nOn y trouve un \"classement 2021 des \u00e9coles les plus engag\u00e9es dans la transition \u00e9cologique\". La m\u00e9thode est s\u00fbrement am\u00e9liorable (parce que ce classement se base pour partie sur des notions qui ne sont pas d\u00e9finies, comme \"impact\", ou parce que certains crit\u00e8res portent sur la \"transition \u00e9cologique et sociale\", ce qui peut se limiter \u00e0 aborder le c\u00f4t\u00e9 social), mais il est int\u00e9ressant de voir le premier quotidien \u00e9conomique du pays venir chercher les grandes \u00e9coles sur ce terrain, de plus en plus demand\u00e9 par les \u00e9tudiant(e)s.\n\nDans ce m\u00eame dossier on trouve une interview de 6 directeurs d'\u00e9tablissements (dont mon \"patron\" \u00e0 Mines ParisTech, Vincent Lafleche) r\u00e9alis\u00e9e conjointement par la r\u00e9daction des Echos et un \"responsable r\u00e9gional de la COP2 Etudiante\" : https://lnkd.in/djXEChnD\n\nA la question \"Diriez-vous que les grandes \u00e9coles font assez pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 l'urgence climatique\u00a0?\" la r\u00e9ponse du directeur de Centrale Nantes, pourtant arriv\u00e9 apr\u00e8s que les \u00e9l\u00e8ves aient sign\u00e9 une p\u00e9tition demandant \u00e0 ce que le/la titulaire du poste soit choisi pour mettre en oeuvre un projet au service de la transition, est tout simplement\u00a0: \"Clairement non. (Rires.)\".\n\nIl est \u00e9vident que nos \u00e9tablissements d'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur ont tout \u00e0 gagner \u00e0 fournir un enseignement permettant aux \u00e9tudiant(e)s d'\u00eatre mieux arm\u00e9 face aux d\u00e9fis redoutables que posent les limites plan\u00e9taires. La notori\u00e9t\u00e9 que ces \u00e9tablissements ont acquise aujourd'hui, ils la doivent au fait qu'ils se sont mis hier au service des grands d\u00e9fis soci\u00e9taux du moment. Il est temps de recommencer, mais avec un objectif que les limites plan\u00e9taires obligent \u00e0 formuler diff\u00e9remment." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6859029713650774016,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6859029714347012097,urn:li:activity:6859029714347012097,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 49, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6859029714347012097,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6859029714347012097,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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p\u00e9trole conventionnel. La question d'entr\u00e9e \u00e9tait bien s\u00fbr celle du prix des carburants. J'en ai profit\u00e9 pour essayer d'expliquer 3 choses :\n- que le pic pour le conventionnel \u00e9tait pass\u00e9 depuis plus de 10 ans,\n- qu'il se pourrait bien que le pic tous p\u00e9troles ait \u00e9t\u00e9 pass\u00e9 juste avant le covid,\n- et que, pour autant, cela ne conduira pas le prix du p\u00e9trole \u00e0 \u00eatre ind\u00e9finiment croissant, ce qui est \u00e9videmment tr\u00e8s perturbant pour le consommateur \"ordinaire\" (et \u00e0 mon avis tr\u00e8s perturbant aussi pour le politique ordinaire !).\n\nIl est vraisemblable que j'aurai un peu besoin d'y revenir avant que les auditeurs de la radio ne soient familiers avec cette affaire de pic..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6858450024834064384,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6858450025203146752,urn:li:activity:6858450025203146752,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 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"400_400/0/1627577164056?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=uqH-kOow02cCJ-IYtY7WlXQrnZcn4kvZqAnb2cZOuyc", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1627577164056?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=tMARCi9zRvkfMLRfUYQ_WT3ZVJqMoN8G7UWnXpq005o", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E03AQFd7DrjKwvLKg/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "qzduODQVTOGh/fKkjR2tyg==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Jean-Marc Vittori se penche sur la question du d\u00e9couplage entre PIB et CO2. Ce d\u00e9couplage, ce serait le graal pour l'\u00e9conomie : il signifierait qu'il est possible d'avoir de plus en plus de PIB tout en faisant plonger les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre vers z\u00e9ro.\n\nLas, on sent que l'ami Vittori a quelques doutes. Il cite un document de l'Agence Europ\u00e9enne de l'Environnement (une instance officielle de l'Union, comme la Cour de Justice ou la Commission) qui dit explicitement que ce d\u00e9couplage semble \"hautement improbable\" : https://lnkd.in/dRbK9jZb\n\nIl constate que jusqu'\u00e0 maintenant le CO2 est certes mont\u00e9 moins vite que le PIB, mais qu'il n'est pas descendu. Et il se risque m\u00eame \u00e0 conclure son \u00e9ditorial de la mani\u00e8re suivante : \"Si nous voulons vraiment cesser les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre induites par l'activit\u00e9 humaine pour sauver la plan\u00e8te, nous devrons investir \u00e9norm\u00e9ment, innover \u00e9norm\u00e9ment, changer \u00e9norm\u00e9ment de mode de vie. Est-ce possible\u00a0? La charge de la preuve n'incombe pas aux tenants de la d\u00e9croissance, mais au camp d'en face.\".\n\nOn ne saurait mieux inviter les concepteurs de sc\u00e9narios de \"croissance verte\" \u00e0 faire la preuve de la vraisemblance de leur proposition." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6857952066371887104,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6857952066808107008,urn:li:activity:6857952066808107008,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 51, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6857952066808107008,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6857952066808107008,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": 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200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1631074239811?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=TjnvQemcnwmaxhmioCQYoZM6PkrHd4EbiEVuH-npq7Q", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1631074239811?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=WYLYREEUSz9G2WLpEjit9zxVUPpCUFnrI6CN1SpYEkk", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E03AQHhTqlH9MaJXw/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "7i5xHGLfRhSg8OcGli+p3A==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Les voitures vendues en Europe ont pris en moyenne 10 kg par an depuis 50 ans. Certes le renforcement de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 passive a jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le, mais le confort et l\u2019automatisation aussi, sans parler de l\u2019augmentation de la taille et de la puissance.\n\nDans une interview \u00e0 Carbone 4, Nicolas Meilhan plaide en faveur d'une fiscalit\u00e9 bas\u00e9e sur poids des v\u00e9hicules, et qui vient s'ajouter au bonus-malus bas\u00e9 sur le CO2. Questionn\u00e9 sur la redondance (un v\u00e9hicule plus lourd est normalement aussi plus \u00e9missif), il r\u00e9pond ceci : \n\n- Le malus au poids, qui entre en vigueur en 2022, a \u00e9t\u00e9 un pr\u00e9texte pour moins durcir le malus CO2. Du coup il devient d'autant plus n\u00e9cessaire.\n\n- Au niveau europ\u00e9en, les obligations \u00e0 respecter par les constructeurs sur les \u00e9missions \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chappement sont d\u00e9finies pour partie par kg de masse, encouragent ces derniers\u00a0\u00e0 faire des grosses voitures ! De plus, la r\u00e9glementation europ\u00e9enne ne prend pas en compte les \u00e9missions de fabrication, en gros proportionnelles \u00e0 la masse du v\u00e9hicule. Le malus au poids vient l\u00e0 aussi corriger ce biais.\n\n- Pour les \u00e9missions d'utilisation, le nouveau protocole d\u2019homologation (WLTP) est plus r\u00e9aliste que l\u2019ancien (NEDC), mais minore encore - de l\u2019ordre de 20 \u00e0 25 % - la r\u00e9alit\u00e9. Il est moins facile de \"s'arranger\" sur le poids.\n\n- Enfin un tel malus au poids s'appliquant aussi aux v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques, cela aidera \u00e0 dissuader les constructeurs de faire des tanks \u00e9lectriques, ce qui est la tendance actuelle." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6857577044771909632,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6857577045224919040,urn:li:activity:6857577045224919040,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 129, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6857577045224919040,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6857577045224919040,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6857218226607165440,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Guardian, qui est probablement le quotidien le plus engag\u00e9 sur la question du climat de toute la presse occidentale, publie - juste avant Glasgow - des infographies tr\u00e8s p\u00e9dagogiques bas\u00e9es sur le dernier rapport du GIEC. \n\nIl y figure notamment une cartographie interactive qui illustre les cons\u00e9quences en Europe en mati\u00e8re de vagues de chaleur, pr\u00e9cipitations intenses, incendies, en fonction de l'\u00e9l\u00e9vation de temp\u00e9rature et donc d'horizon temporel sur un sc\u00e9nario \"ligne de pente\".\n\nJusqu'\u00e0 maintenant, les mauvaises surprises ont eu tendance \u00e0 arriver plut\u00f4t plus vite (par exemple le Canada et l'ouest am\u00e9ricain cet \u00e9t\u00e9) que ce qui est \"pr\u00e9vu par les mod\u00e8les\". Prenons donc ces cartes plut\u00f4t comme une borne inf\u00e9rieure que comme une borne sup\u00e9rieure...\n\nCes derniers jours, de nombreuses voix se sont indign\u00e9es parce que \"les p\u00e9troliers savaient et ont fait ce qu'il fallait pour semer le doute\". Mais posons nous un instant la question suivante : qu'avons nous fait de plus depuis que le doute n'est plus que l'apanage d'une faible minorit\u00e9 de d\u00e9cideurs y compris en Europe ? Nous avons lanc\u00e9 la 5G, augment\u00e9 la fraction de SUV dans les ventes, d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de baisser le nucl\u00e9aire au profit du gaz, aid\u00e9 les compagnies a\u00e9riennes, multipli\u00e9 les entrep\u00f4ts desservis par camion et les zones pavillonnaires desservies par la voiture, et j'en passe. \n\nLorsque la \"vertu climatique\" s'est empar\u00e9e de nous, cela a \u00e9t\u00e9 pour d'autres raisons que le climat (insuffisance d'approvisionnement en p\u00e9trole et gaz, notamment ; un sujet compl\u00e8tement hors du radar des politiques et des media, dont quasiment pas un n'\u00e9voque ce d\u00e9terminant de la hausse des prix !). \n\nNous n'avons toujours pas souhait\u00e9, collectivement, que l'environnement passe avant les euros, lesquels ignorent justement l'environnement par construction (puisque l'\u00e9conomie postule que l'environnement est gratuit parce que infini). La r\u00e9volution intellectuelle qui nous reste \u00e0 faire est l\u00e0. A cause de l'inertie du syst\u00e8me, elle arrivera de toute fa\u00e7on trop tard pour \u00e9viter une (large) partie des baffes. Mais elle reste plus n\u00e9cessaire que jamais.\n\nGlasgow ne sera pas un succ\u00e8s si nous faisons de grandes d\u00e9clarations. Glasgow sera un succ\u00e8s si elle amplifie l'envie de chaque maire, chaque d\u00e9put\u00e9, chaque chef d'entreprise, chaque vendeur, chaque conducteur de bus ou de camion, chaque agriculteur, chaque enseignant, chaque plombier, chaque ing\u00e9nieur, et j'en passe, de mobiliser tous ses neurones et toutes ses tripes sur la r\u00e9solution du formidable d\u00e9fi qui se pose \u00e0 nous. Il n'y a rien \u00e0 attendre des Nations Unies si nous n'attendons rien de nous-m\u00eames." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6857218226607165440,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6857218227194347521,urn:li:activity:6857218227194347521,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 128, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6857218227194347521,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6857218227194347521,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7528933029957173459)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbone4.com \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Sondage (r\u00e9)Concilier transport de marchandises et d\u00e9carbonation | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/sondage-transport-marchandises-decarbonation" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Sondage (r\u00e9)Concilier transport de marchandises et d\u00e9carbonation | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6856823098864345088,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 0, "length": 9, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:1024481", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:1024481", "name": "Carbone 4", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=rfJGK2e3iterLsOsSISWYBKQfwRsHbVRefpndEMkvPQ", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=RdCLexoU6sLuxazvQlgNfFeH4Wfhc6NXzSzW9yDnXqw", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=LuPzdb3bCuaLwxQ0d-zT9XKdKpEEgBhM46jfzYljHFk", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQGvsTIZAJifHQ/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "carbone-4", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:1024481", "trackingId": "p4t6TNZTTHekx5iNHzPtaQ==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Carbone 4 publie un de ses premiers sondages. En l'esp\u00e8ce, ce dernier a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9 avec BP2R, un cabinet de conseil sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans l'optimisation du fret.\n\nCe sondage a \u00e9t\u00e9 effectu\u00e9 aupr\u00e8s de 130 professionnels en poste au sein du service transport, achats indirects ou supply chain d\u2019une entreprise donneuse d\u2019ordres.\n\nLes questions ont port\u00e9, de mani\u00e8re assez d\u00e9taill\u00e9e, sur les moyens et l'organisation interne de l'entreprise en ce qui concerne la gestion de son empreinte carbone pour la part li\u00e9e au transport de marchandises. Quel est le budget du transport ? L'entreprise a-t-elle un objectif de baisse de ses \u00e9missions ? Si oui, le transport a-t-il un objectif sp\u00e9cifique ? Quels sont les moyens budg\u00e9taires et techniques allou\u00e9s \u00e0 cet objectif ? Etc.\n\nSans grande surprise, on constate que pour le moment les d\u00e9clarations restent trop souvent \"sup\u00e9rieures aux moyens\". Par exemple, 80% des entreprises interrog\u00e9es ont un objectif de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions, mais, dans le domaine du fret, seules un quart ont un budget pour mettre en oeuvre cette d\u00e9carbonation.\n\nOr, le passage \u00e0 l'acte est certes une affaire de compr\u00e9hension du probl\u00e8me et de m\u00e9trique pour en appr\u00e9cier l'ampleur, mais aussi, \u00e0 un moment ou \u00e0 un autre, une affaire de moyens.\n\nOn y apprend aussi que la r\u00e9duction des volumes transport\u00e9s est la derni\u00e8re marge de manoeuvre envisag\u00e9e par les personnes interrog\u00e9es. Mais, pour mettre une entreprise sur la trajectoire des 2\u00b0C, ce qui suppose que son empreinte carbone baisse d'environ 5% par an, il n'est pas sur que l'on puisse y \u00e9chapper ! Avant l'\u00e9nergie abondante, la limitation des volumes transport\u00e9s \u00e9tait souvent le premier crit\u00e8re d'optimisation d'une organisation..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6856823098864345088,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6856823099413819392,urn:li:activity:6856823099413819392,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 15, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6856823099413819392,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6856823099413819392,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8877315018457123517)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "air-journal.fr \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Trains ou vols int\u00e9rieurs : UAF et ACI en appellent \u00e0 l\u2019Europe | Air Journal by air-journal.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.air-journal.fr/2021-10-20-trains-ou-vols-interieurs-uaf-et-aci-en-appellent-a-leurope-5231117.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Trains ou vols int\u00e9rieurs : UAF et ACI en appellent \u00e0 l\u2019Europe | Air Journal" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6856817059192459264,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Union des a\u00e9roports fran\u00e7ais et Airports Council International Europe ont introduit un recours aupr\u00e8s de la Commission Europ\u00e9enne pour invalider la loi disposition de la loi Climat qui oblige les compagnies a\u00e9riennes \u00e0 supprimer les lignes int\u00e9rieures quand le m\u00eame trajet peut \u00eatre r\u00e9alis\u00e9 en train en moins de 2h30.\n\nIl se trouve, explique l'article, que les liaisons concern\u00e9es, au nombre de 4 (Paris-Bordeaux, Paris-Lyon, Paris-Nantes et Marseille-Lyon) sont toutes exploit\u00e9es par Air France, qui avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 pris l'engagement de supprimer ses vols int\u00e9rieurs quand le temps de trajet en train est inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 2h30, en \u00e9change de l'aide \"covid\".\n\nCertes, les a\u00e9roports ne sont pas Air France, et ces derniers n'avaient pris aucun engagement. Mais est-ce vraiment ramer dans le sens du courant que de livrer ce combat, au surplus au moment o\u00f9 le secteur a\u00e9rien r\u00e9p\u00e8te \u00e0 qui veut l'entendre que le climat est sa grande affaire ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6856817059192459264,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6856817059821600768,urn:li:activity:6856817059821600768,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 40, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6856817059821600768,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6856817059821600768,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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leurs \u00e9missions de CO2" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6856482206861340672,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "D'apr\u00e8s une \u00e9tude d'Oxford (dont le lien n'est pas donn\u00e9 dans l'article des Echos), 20% des entreprises (mondiales je suppose) se sont engag\u00e9es \u00e0 atteindre la neutralit\u00e9 carbone (nonobstant le fait que cette notion n'a pas de sens \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle d'une entreprise). \n\nMais selon une analyse du BCG relay\u00e9e par cet article des Echos, 9% seulement des grandes entreprises (chez les petites c'est \u00e9videmment inf\u00e9rieur) ont effectu\u00e9 un bilan carbone complet, incluant les \u00e9missions indirectes dont d\u00e9pend leur activit\u00e9 (dites de scope 3 dans le jargon). Peut-on s'engager \u00e0 passer l'\u00e9ponge derri\u00e8re des \u00e9missions que l'on ne mesure pas ? Apparemment oui ! \n\n\"Le principal frein \u00e0 la r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions est l'absence d'outils de mesure\" indique l'auteur de l'analyse du BCG en citant les entreprises interrog\u00e9es. Sans viser sp\u00e9cifiquement l'auteur de la citation, qui ne fait que relayer ce que disent ces clients, il faut arr\u00eater de propager cette id\u00e9e - largement relay\u00e9e par les \"r\u00e9sistants\" au sein du monde des entreprises - selon laquelle mesurer les \u00e9missions dont on d\u00e9pend serait impossible ou ruineux. \n\nCe n'est ni l'un ni l'autre : faire un bilan carbone coute le prix du salaire annuel d'un seul contr\u00f4leur de gestion, que chaque grande entreprise embauche par centaines. Il y a des m\u00e9thodes \u00e9prouv\u00e9es (pour lesquelles la France est en avance, alors que je suppose que cette \u00e9tude est mondiale) pour ce faire, qui n'ont absolument pas besoin de \"l'intelligence artificielle\" comme il est \u00e9voqu\u00e9 en fin d'article, mais juste de gens comp\u00e9tents pour s'attaquer \u00e0 la question. Pour mettre le pied \u00e0 l'\u00e9trier et avoir une premi\u00e8re estimation de \"l\u00e0 o\u00f9 ca fait mal\", un simple tableur est suffisant. Enfin l'incertitude sur les r\u00e9sultats n'est pas plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que celle sur les provisions dans le bilan de n'importe quelle banque.\n\nTous ceux qui veulent procrastiner invoquent ces excuses. Mais il ne faut pas s'y laisser prendre. Et surtout, comme il \u00e9tait \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans cette tribune - https://lnkd.in/ea7CrktT - il ne faut relayer aucune annonce sur l'\u00e9volution des \u00e9missions venant d'une entreprise qui n'a pas commenc\u00e9 par former son ex\u00e9cutif au probl\u00e8me (physique) \u00e0 traiter, et calcul\u00e9 son empreinte carbone, ce qui ne pose aucun probl\u00e8me majeur." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6856482206861340672,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096,urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 55, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096", "threadId": "activity:6856482207494660096", "allowedCommentersScope": "ALL", "totalSocialActivityCounts": { "socialDetailEntityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096", "urn": "urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096", "numComments": 92, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096", "reactionTypeCounts": [ { "count": 983, "reactionType": "LIKE" }, { "count": 75, "reactionType": "INTEREST" }, { "count": 62, "reactionType": "PRAISE" }, { "count": 28, "reactionType": "MAYBE" }, { "count": 8, "reactionType": "APPRECIATION" }, { "count": 4, "reactionType": "EMPATHY" } ], "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096", "numLikes": 1160, "liked": false }, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6856482207494660096", "commentingDisabled": false, "likes": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 1160, "links": [] }, "elements": [] } } }, { "actor": { "urn": "urn:li:member:101316862", "image": { "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "attributes": [ { "sourceType": "PROFILE_PICTURE", "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean-Marc", "lastName": "Jancovici", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAYJ-P4B8XcfHOiVTdmiAyYGfvxBRs3J_Ug", "occupation": "Founding Partner, Carbone 4 - 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Ce document est le r\u00e9sultat des discussions, recherches et entretiens avec des experts men\u00e9s par un groupe de travail constitu\u00e9 en ..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "entreprises-et-neutralite-carbone-premieres-conclusions-et-enjeux-identifies_2.pdf" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6856285453394489344,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\"Afin de refl\u00e9ter la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 physique des flux de GES et de faciliter le pilotage, l\u2019entreprise doit se fixer des objectifs et rendre compte s\u00e9par\u00e9ment des diff\u00e9rentes actions men\u00e9es (r\u00e9duction de ses \u00e9missions, augmentation des puits de carbone et des \u00e9missions \u00e9vit\u00e9es dans sa cha\u00eene de valeur, contribution financi\u00e8re).\n\nAinsi parla non pas Zarathoustra, mais l'Autorit\u00e9 des March\u00e9s Financiers dans un avis qu'elle vient de rendre sur la neutralit\u00e9 et les entreprises (https://lnkd.in/eH6Q3U3v ).\n\nOn peut trouver dans le m\u00eame document quelques paragraphes plus haut : \"Elle passe avant tout et principalement par une diminution en valeur absolue des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de \nserre (GES) de l\u2019entreprise sur l\u2019ensemble de sa cha\u00eene de valeur, \u00e0 partir d\u2019objectifs align\u00e9s sur les connaissances scientifiques, r\u00e9vis\u00e9s r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement, avec une premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape \u00e0 2030 ou avant\".\n\nDit autrement : une entreprise ne peut pas se revendiquer neutre en faisant \"\u00e9missions - compensation = z\u00e9ro et je communique juste sur le z\u00e9ro\". Elle doit communiquer, puis agir, sur chacun des trois plans que sont \u00e9missions induites sur la chaine de valeur, \u00e9missions \u00e9vit\u00e9es sur la cha\u00eene de valeur, et \u00e9missions \u00e9vit\u00e9es ou carbone s\u00e9questr\u00e9 (en faisant bien la diff\u00e9rence entre les deux) hors de la chaine de valeur, par financement de projets.\n\nElle doit aussi ne pas botter en touche en se donnant uniquement un objectif \u00e0 2050 - donc quand l'ensemble de l'ex\u00e9cutif en place ne sera plus l\u00e0 - sans \u00e9ch\u00e9ances plus courtes, qui id\u00e9alement n'attendront m\u00eame pas 2030.\n\nApr\u00e8s l'Ademe, un autre organisme important - et tr\u00e8s important dans la gouvernance des entreprises cot\u00e9es - se prononce donc en faveur d'une approche rigoureuse de la neutralit\u00e9, incitant les entreprises \u00e0 l'effort et non \u00e0 une forme de paresse, qui est malheureusement ce qui s'observe quand elle se d\u00e9clare neutre d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent (car alors tous les collaborateurs sont incit\u00e9s \u00e0 ne plus se mobiliser puisque le probl\u00e8me est r\u00e9gl\u00e9 !).\n\nCe qui serait l'id\u00e9al, ce serait de voir l'AMF rejeter un document de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence d'une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 cot\u00e9e parce que ce dernier pr\u00e9sente abusivement l'entreprise comme ayant r\u00e9gl\u00e9 son probl\u00e8me avec le climat via l'affichage d'une \"neutralit\u00e9 individuelle\" qui n'a pas de fondement. \n\nNous n'en sommes pas encore l\u00e0, mais \u00e0 l'heure o\u00f9 l'all\u00e9gation de neutralit\u00e9 devient un motif pour se faire tra\u00eener en justice (https://lnkd.in/ecjahPE8 ), qui peut dire que ce ne sera jamais le cas ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6856285453394489344,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6856285453914562560,urn:li:activity:6856285453914562560,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { 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Malheureusement, il contient des affirmations inexactes, probablement dues au fait que l'auteure de l'article a du recopier le communiqu\u00e9 de presse sans avoir la capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9futer ce qui y \u00e9tait \u00e9crit.\n\nL'hydrog\u00e8ne est d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 parce que la collectivit\u00e9 \"a achet\u00e9 de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 verte\". Co\u00efncidence, ma chronique de Samedi dernier sur RTL explique en quoi \"acheter de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 verte\" ne change physiquement rien \u00e0 ce qui se passe (https://lnkd.in/eCHxtijb ). Un \u00e9lectrolyseur qui est branch\u00e9 sur le r\u00e9seau utilise physiquement l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 du r\u00e9seau, quelle que soit la convention commerciale utilis\u00e9e par ailleurs. Acheter de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 verte ou pas, c'est indiff\u00e9rent pour ce qui a lieu en pratique.\n\nEn France, le contenu carbone de cet \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 de r\u00e9seau est de l'ordre de 40 \u00e0 50 grammes de CO2 par kWh \u00e9lectrique (https://lnkd.in/embwmgu4 ). C'est beaucoup mieux que nos voisins (https://lnkd.in/eX9Z8Yhf ), mais pas z\u00e9ro.\n\nL'hydrog\u00e8ne qui est produit par \u00e9lectrolyse est \u00e0 presque 100 grammes de CO2 par kWh thermique, soit 40% des \u00e9missions du gaz. \n\nC'est donc mieux que du fossile, mais n'autorise pas \u00e0 \u00e9crire \"[les bus] transportent d\u00e9sormais les usagers de la ligne 1 de l'agglom\u00e9ration sans \u00e9mettre le moindre gramme de CO2\".\n\nEnfin l'article indique que l'\u00e9lectrolyseur fait 1 MW pour alimenter 5 bus \u00e0 hydrog\u00e8ne. Si ces donn\u00e9es sont exactes, cela signifie que pour convertir les 100.000 bus et cars de France (https://lnkd.in/e5g7Hqkv ) il faudrait donc 100 GW d'\u00e9lectrolyseurs, et donc affecter \u00e0 ce seul usage la totalit\u00e9 de la puissance \u00e9lectrique fran\u00e7aise. \n\nNous ne ferons donc pas beaucoup de bus \u00e0 hydrog\u00e8ne et ce n'est pas prioritaire pour d\u00e9carboner la mobilit\u00e9 du quotidien des fran\u00e7ais. Du reste la RATP a choisi non pas l'hydrog\u00e8ne mais l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour d\u00e9carboner sa flotte de bus. \n\nIl est probable que si Auxerre investissait la m\u00eame somme dans des bus \u00e9lectriques, cela \u00e9viterait plus de CO2 pour le m\u00eame prix. 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"200_200/0/1592286892096?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=KdQnt77azs_5aCxGbM6BLm4FO6epNofW4kGpyizThzk", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1592286892096?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=BbP2mQmuW5HHOpNSyeamsi9OFkOdj1YZYp-TgC5hqd8", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1592286892096?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=uare2BZLnCsIsE2zpTEDGSh6AnoLWjeFHsUxezUTvE0", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D0BAQEWveiL9GSong/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "afp", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:8423", "trackingId": "pean4WEcTx68ep5lveEo9w==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Ouest-France publie un article \"sensationnaliste\" sur des rejets de SF6 de la centrale de Flamanville. Le site pr\u00e9cise \"avec AFP\". Cela signifie que le journal reproduit une d\u00e9p\u00eache de l'AFP qui a aussi jug\u00e9 utile de consacrer une partie de ses ressources \u00e0 ce qui est en fait un non-\u00e9v\u00e9nement.\n\nExplication : Flamanville produit chaque ann\u00e9e de l'ordre de 16 milliards de kWh \u00e9lectriques. Ces fuites de SF6 repr\u00e9sentent donc 0,1 gramme de CO2-\u00e9quivalent par kWh. Les \u00e9missions de CO2-\u00e9quivalent associ\u00e9s \u00e0 la production d'un kWh \u00e9lectrique (en englobant tout le cycle de vie d'un dispositif de production, de sa construction \u00e0 son d\u00e9mant\u00e8lement, en passant bien sur par les \u00e9missions directes quand le mode est fossile) vont de 6 g par kWh (nucl\u00e9aire) \u00e0 1000 (charbon). L'\u00e9olien est \u00e0 10-12 (hors stockage ; le stockage sur batterie est \u00e0 50 environ) ; le PV \u00e0 30-50 (hors stockage), le gaz \u00e0 400 et l'hydro \u00e0 10. Ces fuites de SF6 sont donc dans l'\u00e9paisseur du trait par rapport au fonctionnement normal de la centrale.\n\nPar ailleurs le SF6 est certes un tr\u00e8s puissant gaz \u00e0 effet de serre par unit\u00e9 de poids, mais il n'a aucune esp\u00e8ce de toxicit\u00e9 environnementale, et ces fuites n'ont donc aucun impact direct sur la sant\u00e9 ou l'environnement (ce gaz est totalement inerte, et c'est justement cette inertie chimique qui engendre un temps de r\u00e9sidence tr\u00e8s long dans l'atmosph\u00e8re, ce qui contribue \u00e0 en faire un gaz \u00e0 effet de serre bien plus puissant que le CO2).\n\nCe gaz est utilis\u00e9 dans des \u00e9quipements \u00e9lectriques (disjoncteurs de puissance, transformateurs de puissance) qui ne sont pas du tout sp\u00e9cifiques au nucl\u00e9aire. Il y a de tels \u00e9quipements partout dans le r\u00e9seau.\n\nSi l'AFP souhaite faire une d\u00e9p\u00eache d\u00e8s que 2000 tonnes de CO2-\u00e9quivalent (pourquoi utiliser des millions de kg tout d'un coup ? Pourquoi pas des milliards de grammes, ce qui serait encore plus impressionnant ?) sont \u00e9mises quelque part dans le monde, voici une suggestion. \n\nLa centrale au charbon de Cordemais (https://lnkd.in/drafkKY4), d'une puissance de 1200 MW, \u00e9met de l'ordre de 5 millions de tonnes de CO2 par an si elle fonctionne 50% du temps (sinon faire une r\u00e8gle de trois !), soit 2500 fois 2000 tonnes de CO2. L'AFP pourrait donc publier 2500 d\u00e9p\u00eaches par an sur les \u00e9missions de cette centrale, soit 7 par jour. Qu'est-ce qu'ils attendent :) ?\n\nIl me semble que nous sommes pile dans l'illustration de ce qui est \u00e9voqu\u00e9 sur https://lnkd.in/d3RNdnpe (2\u00e8 ligne pour \u00eatre pr\u00e9cis). Puis-je sugg\u00e9rer \u00e0 Ouest-France France et l'AFP d'arr\u00eater de mobiliser un quart de page d\u00e8s qu'un employ\u00e9 d'une centrale nucl\u00e9aire se laisse tomber un marteau sur le pied ou que les toilettes y sont bouch\u00e9es ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6855441909465264128,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6855441910014734336,urn:li:activity:6855441910014734336,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 223, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6855441910014734336,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6855441910014734336,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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"numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Au sein du monde financier, une des \"strat\u00e9gies\" pour d\u00e9carboner un portefeuille est de se s\u00e9parer de ce qui s'appelle les \"actifs bruns\". Ces derniers consistent en les actions et obligations \u00e9mises par des entreprises ayant des activit\u00e9s significatives dans les combustibles fossiles (extraction, transformation et vente de charbon, p\u00e9trole et gaz).\n\nQuestion : est-ce que le monde se porte mieux apr\u00e8s cette op\u00e9ration ? Non, r\u00e9pond le tr\u00e8s s\u00e9rieux Financial Times, qui explique que cela peut par exemple avoir comme seule cons\u00e9quence d'enrichir des fonds d'investissement peu soucieux de cet aspect des choses. L'activit\u00e9 sous-jacente ne dispara\u00eet pas parce que son capital ou sa dette change de propri\u00e9taire. Pour faire dispara\u00eetre l'activit\u00e9 sous-jacente, il faut que ce soit la r\u00e9glementation qui change, ou que l'actionnaire d\u00e9cide de lui-m\u00eame de la fermer ou transformer.\n\nDans nombre de cas de figure, il peut donc \u00eatre plus efficace de rester investi sur une entreprise qui ne fait pas ce qu'il faut pour l'influencer de l'int\u00e9rieur. Question \u00e0 nouveau : est-ce que l'entreprise apr\u00e8s transformation est aussi rentable qu'avant ? Malheureusement la r\u00e9ponse n'est pas n\u00e9cessairement positive. \n\nLe climat va donc souvent mettre l'actionnaire ou le pr\u00eateur en demeure de devoir choisir entre le rendement et sa conscience. Et, souvent, l'actionnaire ou le pr\u00eateur en bout de chaine c'est... nous. Toutes celles et tous ceux qui ont de l'assurance vie, un PEA, une retraite par capitalisation (ce qui est la norme dans de tr\u00e8s nombreux pays, soit en r\u00e9gime principal, soit en r\u00e9gime compl\u00e9mentaire), un compte \u00e9pargne en actions, un fonds commun de placement, et encore quelques instruments financiers sont en pratique les actionnaires et les pr\u00eateurs des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui doivent se transformer. \n\nLa bonne question est donc de savoir qui est pr\u00eat \u00e0 prendre le risque de voir le rendement de son assurance vie baisser parce que le gestionnaire de notre \u00e9pargne tanne le monde de l'entreprise pour qu'elle agisse contre le changement climatique, f\u00fbt-ce au d\u00e9triment de ses performances financi\u00e8res.\n\nIl reste encore beaucoup de malentendus dans l'univers de l'\u00e9pargne et de la finance sur la compatibilit\u00e9 de cette activit\u00e9 avec la baisse des \u00e9missions. Il serait utile que tous ses protagonistes (jusqu'aux \u00e9pargnants finaux) comprennent un peu mieux de quoi il retourne, pour ne pas croire que des mesures simples - voire simplistes - suffisent pour traiter la question." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6855423617992298496,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6855423618524971008,urn:li:activity:6855423618524971008,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 44, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6855423618524971008,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6855423618524971008,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, 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serre de l'industrie de 35 % de 2015 \u00e0 2030. Dans l'industrie, 75% des \u00e9missions directes viennent de la production de l'acier, du ciment, et des produits chimiques de base.\n\nLe discours pr\u00e9sidentiel mentionne effectivement ces trois secteurs, mais ne dit pas ce qui sera fait en pratique. Sur l'acier, l'enjeu majeur est de passer \u00e0 l'hydrog\u00e8ne pour r\u00e9duire le minerai de fer en lieu et place du coke (voir explications sur https://lnkd.in/dm9ZzP5u ), mais \u00e0 raison d'un r\u00e9acteur nucl\u00e9aire par haut fourneau- il y en a 5 en France - \u00e0 remplacer par un dispositif \u00e0 l'hydrog\u00e8ne, ca va demander un peu plus de 2 milliards d'investissements d'y arriver ! (disons 30 \u00e0 40 pour la partie nucl\u00e9aire, et il faut probablement en ajouter de l'ordre de 10 \u00e0 20 pour les dispositifs de production chez l'aci\u00e9riste, en ce inclus l'\u00e9lectrolyseur, l'usine de pellets, etc).\n\nL'essentiel de l'investissement devra donc \u00eatre port\u00e9 par la fili\u00e8re elle-m\u00eame. La barri\u00e8re n'est pas tant technologique que r\u00e9glementaire, avec un cadre stable et p\u00e9renne permettant de \"r\u00e9risquer\" l'investissement. \n\nCe cadre est en gros un prix du carbone \u00e9lev\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re pr\u00e9visible (ce qui ne d\u00e9pend pas de la France mais de l'Europe puisque les hauts fourneaux sont dans le syst\u00e8me de quotas) et d'un m\u00e9canisme d'ajustement aux fronti\u00e8res (qui ne d\u00e9pend pas de la France mais de l'Europe), car l'acier voyage pas mal.\n\nDans le ciment, les 2/3 des \u00e9missions venant de la calcination du calcaire (l'op\u00e9ration qui, \u00e0 haute temp\u00e9rature, casse en deux la mol\u00e9cule de carbonate de calcium - CaCO3 - pour en faire de la chaux vive - CaO - et du CO2), on est coinc\u00e9s pour diminuer les \u00e9missions d'un facteur 5 \u00e0 production constante, sauf \u00e0 d\u00e9ployer massivement de la capture et s\u00e9questration du CO2 (https://lnkd.in/eJGC-w5 ). Macron ne dit pas si c'est cela qu'il a en t\u00eate, ni quel cadre permettrait \u00e0 ce proc\u00e9d\u00e9 de se d\u00e9ployer. Il reste certes des barri\u00e8res technologiques \u00e0 franchir, mais dans l'ensemble c'est \u00e0 nouveau un sujet de cadre dans lequel mettre les cimentiers plus que de R&D, sachant que le ciment voyage moins que l'acier.\n\nDans la chimie, ce secteur a mang\u00e9 l'essentiel de son pain blanc avec l'\u00e9radication quasi-totale des \u00e9missions de protoxyde d'azote. L\u00e0 aussi il est peu probable que l'on puisse atteindre les niveau de r\u00e9duction souhait\u00e9s sans se passer d'une partie du plastique. La chimie est tr\u00e8s ouverte \u00e0 la mondialisation, et donc si les contraintes conduisent \u00e0 diminuer les volumes ou augmenter les prix, il faudra aussi un m\u00e9canisme pour \u00e9viter que des importations ne prennent le relais. A nouveau, cela peut \u00eatre un m\u00e9canisme d'ajustement aux fronti\u00e8res, mais aussi une r\u00e9glementation sur le contenu carbone maximum de ce qui est vendu en Europe." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6855166401250902016,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6855166401926193153,urn:li:activity:6855166401926193153,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 4, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6855166401926193153,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6855166401926193153,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6854303452479148032,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Xerfi Canal prend conscience (ou rappelle ?) que la \"d\u00e9mat\u00e9rialisation\" de l'\u00e9conomie parce que nous avons num\u00e9ris\u00e9 tout partout - et continuons de le faire - n'est qu'un mot vide de sens. L'internet est bien mat\u00e9riel (terminaux, r\u00e9seaux) et mobilise une fraction croissante de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, qui est quasiment aux 2/3 fossile dans le monde - et particuli\u00e8rement l\u00e0 o\u00f9 sont fabriqu\u00e9s terminaux connect\u00e9s et \u00e9l\u00e9ments de r\u00e9seaux, qui sont \u00e0 l'origine de la moiti\u00e9 de l'empreinte carbone du syst\u00e8me.\n\nCet \"\u00e9ditorial\" souligne aussi que la r\u00e9gulation du syst\u00e8me par des taxes ou taxes aux fronti\u00e8res sera difficile. 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L\u00e0 aussi, on peut tr\u00e8s certainement le diminuer sans toucher \u00e0 des choses essentielles \u00e0 court terme. 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Br\u00e8ve mise en perspective, qui sera faite en plusieurs posts.\n\nL'objectif 1 est un soutien aux r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires de petite taille, innovants et avec une meilleure gestion des d\u00e9chets : 1 Md \u20ac sur 9 ans, soit 110 m\u20ac/an.\n\nLa fili\u00e8re nucl\u00e9aire, en France, c'est environ 50 Mds \u20ac de CA par an. A 5% (ordre de grandeur) de R&D ca fait 2,5 Mds \u20ac de R&D par an (toutes entreprises confondues). 110 millions, c'est 4% de cette somme. En fait, ce dont la fili\u00e8re a avant tout besoin pour \"acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer\", c'est d'un cadre politique - fran\u00e7ais et europ\u00e9en - qui ne soit pas du stop and go, et qui a cout\u00e9 beaucoup plus cher que le milliard promis. \n\nL'arr\u00eat, pour des raisons \u00e9lectorales et non de politique industrielle avis\u00e9e, de Superph\u00e9nix, d'Astrid et de Fessenheim, repr\u00e9sente plus de 10 Mds \u20ac. L'AREHN, qui est un transfert de rente d'EDF vers des \"concurrents\" qui sont juste des entit\u00e9s commerciales et financi\u00e8res, a aussi \"consomm\u00e9\" des milliards sans valeur ajout\u00e9e. Le soutien aux ENR \u00e9lectrog\u00e8nes intermittentes a d\u00e9j\u00e0 cout\u00e9 des dizaines de Mds \u20ac sans am\u00e9liorer quoi que ce soit.\n\nLa vraie novation de cette annonce n'est donc pas financi\u00e8re, mais politique. Elle marque le volte face de Macron - et dans la foul\u00e9e de Pompili - sur le sujet, apr\u00e8s Fessenheim et \"l'endossement\" des 50% de nucl\u00e9aire issus de Hollande.\n\nMais le d\u00e9fi reste de fournir un cadre clair et cr\u00e9dible \u00e0 long terme. Ce cadre ferait par exemple baisser le cout de l'argent dont elle a besoin, et l'impact est un ordre de grandeur au-dessus. Une baisse de 10% \u00e0 2% du cout du capital sur le nouveau nucl\u00e9aire, c'est une \u00e9conomie de 80 milliards d'euros par EPR (sur 60 ans), s'il est construit pour 10 milliards pi\u00e8ce. \n\nOn attend donc la publication d'un cadre stabilis\u00e9 qui nous emm\u00e8ne jusqu'\u00e0 la fin du si\u00e8cle. C'est cela qui d\u00e9gagera l'horizon pour cette fili\u00e8re.\n\nL'objectif 2 consiste \u00e0 avoir au moins deux gigafactories d\u2019\u00e9lectrolyseurs pour avoir de l\u2019hydrog\u00e8ne \"vert\" (en fait d\u00e9carbon\u00e9).\n\nProduire de l'hydrog\u00e8ne renvoie au probl\u00e8me pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Il faut 50 TWh (milliards de kWh) - soit 5 gros r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires actuels - pour faire le million de tonnes d'H2 que nous produisons d\u00e9j\u00e0 en France par reformage du m\u00e9thane. Il faut un r\u00e9acteur nucl\u00e9aire par haut fourneau que l'on voudrait remplacer par une r\u00e9duction du minerai de fer \u00e0 l'hydrog\u00e8ne. Il faut une heure de r\u00e9acteur nucl\u00e9aire pour faire voler un avion qui part de Roissy (et il en part 400 \u00e0 500 par jour ; il faudrait donc 15 r\u00e9acteurs rien que pour \"d\u00e9carboner\" le trafic a\u00e9rien au d\u00e9part de cet a\u00e9roport). \n\nProduire beaucoup de courant d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 sera plus limitant que savoir faire l'\u00e9lectrolyseur en bout de chaine. Cela renvoie \u00e0 une planification cr\u00e9dible de la production \u00e9lectrique d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e envisageable. Dans un monde qui doit devenir plus \u00e9lectrique, il n'est pas \u00e9tonnant que ce soit le d\u00e9but de tout." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6853998769357238272,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6853998770116403200,urn:li:activity:6853998770116403200,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 94, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853998770116403200,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853998770116403200,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \u00ab Acier vert \u00bb : le d\u00e9fi du si\u00e8cle de la sid\u00e9rurgie by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/industrie-lourde/acier-vert-le-defi-du-siecle-de-la-siderurgie-1353705" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00ab\u00a0Acier vert\u00a0\u00bb\u00a0: le d\u00e9fi du si\u00e8cle de la sid\u00e9rurgie" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6853577523473719298,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il n'y a pas que les combustibles fossiles dont notre civilisation soit totalement d\u00e9pendante. Il y a aussi l'acier. Sans lui, pas de construction moderne (les armatures), pas de moyens de transport (v\u00e9hicules de toute nature), pas d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (pour faire \u00e0 la fois les dispositifs de production et les pyl\u00f4nes du r\u00e9seau), pas de p\u00e9trole (!) puisque qu'il est difficile de faire une plate-forme de forage en bambou et en bois, pas de machines industrielles (et donc par ricochet pas d'industrie), pas de travaux public, etc. \n\nLa production d'acier \u00e0 partir de minerai de fer d\u00e9marre par une op\u00e9ration chimique indispensable : s\u00e9parer le fer de l'oxyg\u00e8ne dans le minerai, compos\u00e9 d'oxydes de fer. Cette op\u00e9ration, qui s'appelle une r\u00e9duction, se fait aujourd'hui avec du charbon purifi\u00e9 et poreux, le coke. Ce carbone presque pur, m\u00e9lang\u00e9 \u00e0 du minerai dans un haut fourneau, vient s'associer \u00e0 l'oxyg\u00e8ne de l'oxyde de fer, et permet d'obtenir du fer et... du CO2.\n\n4% environ des \u00e9missions mondiales de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, soit les 2/3 des \u00e9missions des voitures (mondiales) provient de la production d'acier \u00e0 cause de cette r\u00e9action. La solution pour faire autrement ? R\u00e9duire le minerai de fer \u00e0 l'hydrog\u00e8ne, ce dernier d\u00e9barrassant alors l'oxyde de fer de son oxyg\u00e8ne en ne produisant que de la vapeur d'eau. \n\nMais pour cela il faut de l'hydrog\u00e8ne, et produit de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e s'il vous plait. L'ordre de grandeur est qu'il faut un r\u00e9acteur nucl\u00e9aire d\u00e9di\u00e9 pour d\u00e9carboner un haut fourneau. Les Echos indiquent qu'\u00e0 production identique \u00e0 l'actuelle il faudrait augmenter la production \u00e9lectrique mondiale de 25% (en d\u00e9carbon\u00e9) rien que pour \"verdir\" la production d'acier (je n'ai pas fait le calcul mais cet ordre de grandeur ne me surprend pas). \n\nLa conclusion est doublement \u00e9vidente : d'une part le premier hydrog\u00e8ne d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 sera plus utile pour faire de l'acier - indispensable et non substituable m\u00eame dans plein d'usages \"low tech\" - que pour remplacer le p\u00e9trole dans des voitures (qui peuvent \u00eatre elles-m\u00eames remplac\u00e9es par des v\u00e9los \u00e9lectriques ou des petites voitures \u00e9lectriques), et d'autre part il n'y aura pas autant d'acier qu'aujourd'hui dans un monde d\u00e9carbon\u00e9. Une limite de plus \u00e0 int\u00e9grer dans nos r\u00e9flexions !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6853577523473719298,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6853577524002230272,urn:li:activity:6853577524002230272,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 115, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853577524002230272,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853577524002230272,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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mondiale s'expose \u00e0 des chaleurs humides extr\u00eames, qui deviennent particuli\u00e8rement dangereuses pour la sant\u00e9 (cela concerne avant tout les villes situ\u00e9es dans la bande \u00e9quatoriale). \n\nEn effet, si la temp\u00e9rature ext\u00e9rieure devient sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la temp\u00e9rature de la peau (environ 35 \u00b0C), et que l'air est satur\u00e9 d'humidit\u00e9, le corps ne peut plus se refroidir par transfert de chaleur de la peau vers l'air, et ne peut plus se refroidir en \u00e9vaporant de l'eau (la transpiration), avec un risque vital \u00e0 relativement bref d\u00e9lai.\n\nD'ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0, dans certaines villes (Dhaka, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Yangon, Bangkok, Dubai...) il y a eu une augmentation de l'exposition de la population aux chaleurs \"mortelles\", et cela va s'amplifier avec la croissance d\u00e9mographique et le r\u00e9chauffement climatique. Question : que vont faire les habitants de ces villes ?\n\nNB : Sur le climat, The Guardian est un des meilleurs journaux de la presse occidentale (bien meilleur sur ce sujet que la presse g\u00e9n\u00e9raliste fran\u00e7aise prise dans son ensemble), et parmi les choses pertinentes qu'ils font il y a le lien syst\u00e9matique vers les articles scientifiques utilis\u00e9s comme source, ce qui permet \u00e0 tous ceux qui ont le temps d'aller regarder l'information primaire. Nos media hexagonaux devraient en prendre de la graine !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6853574509799211008,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6853574511250419712,urn:li:activity:6853574511250419712,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 26, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853574511250419712,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853574511250419712,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8546086840450315415)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbone4.com \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Importations de gaz naturel : tous les crus ne se valent pas | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/publication-importation-gaz" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Importations de gaz naturel : tous les crus ne se valent pas | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6853365480573440000,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Compte tenu des fuites, le gaz de schiste est-il pire que le charbon ? De combien notre empreinte carbone va-t-elle augmenter avec le recours croissant \u00e0 du gaz liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9 import\u00e9 des USA ? Sans aller \u00e0 cet extr\u00eame, comment les \u00e9missions d'extraction, de purification et de transport du gaz varient-elles en fonction de son origine ?\n\nCarbone 4 vous propose de mettre fin \u00e0 cet insoutenable suspens avec une publication intitul\u00e9e \"importations de gaz : tous les crus ne se valent pas\", d'o\u00f9 il ressort qu'entre du gaz import\u00e9 des Pays Bas par gazoduc (mais c'est du pass\u00e9, ou quasi, parce que la production de ce pays est en phase terminale) et du gaz import\u00e9 des USA par m\u00e9thanier, il y a un facteur 12 dans les \u00e9missions \"amont\", c'est \u00e0 dire hors combustion du gaz.\n\nAvec le gaz de schiste liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9, on rajoute en effet 40% aux \u00e9missions de combustion pour tenir compte de tout le reste. Ca n'am\u00e8ne pas le gaz au niveau du charbon (il faudrait multiplier par 2) mais ca n'est quand m\u00eame pas anodin. \n\nCes \u00e9missions sont bien sur hors inventaire national. Le fait de passer de la Mer du Nord \u00e0 l'Alg\u00e9rie par m\u00e9thanier (ce qui multiplie les \u00e9missions amont par 10) est donc invisible dans les \u00e9missions compt\u00e9es au titre de notre engagement dans l'accord de Paris." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6853365480573440000,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6853365481160642560,urn:li:activity:6853365481160642560,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 9, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853365481160642560,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853365481160642560,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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malheureusement pas mort demain matin. Il a beau \u00e9mettre 150 fois plus de CO2 par kWh \u00e9lectrique que le nucl\u00e9aire, ou 2,5 fois plus que le gaz, il continue d'\u00eatre une \u00e9nergie \"d'avenir\" pour de nombreux pays qui continuent de construire des centrales utilisant ce combustible. \n\nIl y a plusieurs raisons \u00e0 cela : son extraction est assez peu on\u00e9reuse, et la technologie pour en faire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 bien ma\u00eetris\u00e9e. Le transport est l'\u00e9tape qui peut \u00eatre limitante car le charbon est un pond\u00e9reux solide, mais d\u00e8s lors que la centrale est sur le carreau de la mine, ou bien accessible par voie d'eau, ce point cesse d'\u00eatre limitant. \n\nCela explique pourquoi il n'existe pas un pays ayant des r\u00e9serves domestiques de charbon significatives qui se soit abstenu de l'utiliser pour son \u00e9lectricit\u00e9. La d\u00e9crue de ce combustible est toujours all\u00e9e avec un \u00e9puisement des mines (Europe) ou une alternative domestique moins ch\u00e8re (gaz aux USA ; hydro\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 en Norv\u00e8ge...). Les anglais ont \"bascul\u00e9\" notamment parce qu'ils n'avaient plus de charbon domestique (leur pic de production date de 1914 !) et qu'ils \u00e9taient producteurs de gaz.\n\nPar ailleurs, dans tous les pays du monde, la production \u00e9lectrique est une composante indispensable de la production \u00e9conomique, consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme le premier objectif soci\u00e9tal \u00e0 atteindre. Il ne va donc pas \u00eatre si simple de s'en d\u00e9barrasser. \n\nIl ne va en particulier pas \u00eatre simple de le remplacer par des ENR et du stockage, comme le rappelle cet article (en anglais) qui montre que tous les pays qui s'engagent dans cette voie avancent plus lentement que \"pr\u00e9vu\", mais pour des raisons qui \u00e9taient malheureusement pas si difficiles que cela \u00e0 identifier d\u00e8s le d\u00e9part : https://lnkd.in/e4u3iWCs\n\nLa presse ne devrait-elle pas demander plus souvent aux opposants au nucl\u00e9aire s'ils acceptent d'\u00eatre pour partie \u00e0 l'origine d'un rythme trop lent de \"sortie du charbon\" ? Car en jouant ce r\u00f4le d'alli\u00e9s objectifs du charbon, ou m\u00eame du gaz, ils seront h\u00e9las comptables d'une partie des malheurs du monde dus \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive climatique. Ca m\u00e9rite \u00e0 tout le moins de soulever le sujet." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6853214274567892992,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6853214275159306240,urn:li:activity:6853214275159306240,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 48, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853214275159306240,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6853214275159306240,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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vous laisse totalement indiff\u00e9rent. Je n'y ai pas fait exception quand, il y a 15 jours, je suis all\u00e9 \u00e0 l'X pour une intervention (classique) aupr\u00e8s des \u00e9l\u00e8ves.\n\nCe qui m'a surtout marqu\u00e9 est que, pour la premi\u00e8re fois, je suis intervenu dans le plus grand amphi de l'Ecole (car j'ai d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait des conf\u00e9rences pour les \u00e9l\u00e8ves de l'X), qui \u00e9tait plein, alors que c'\u00e9tait l'heure du diner (puisqu'elle a eu lieu de 18h30 \u00e0 21h), et qu'elle \u00e9tait organis\u00e9e par les \u00e9l\u00e8ves (donc c'est un peu moins obligatoire que si c'est la direction des \u00e9tudes qui demande).\n\nJe me souviens tr\u00e8s bien des heures pass\u00e9es dans cet amphi o\u00f9, \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque, intervenaient des figures de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile (et une ou deux fois militaires), dans une ambiance toujours un peu solennelle. Envoyer les \u00e9l\u00e8ves dans ce lieu, c'\u00e9tait le signe que le th\u00e8me \u00e9tait consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme d'importance.\n\nJamais je n'aurais imagin\u00e9, \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque toujours, qu'un jour ce serait \u00e0 mon tour d'y porter un message pour les promotions pr\u00e9sentes sur le plateau. Celles-ci ont une \u00e9norme chance : entrer \u00e0 l'X, ca reste l'assurance d'avoir ensuite un \u00e9norme univers de choix, et de pouvoir, si on le souhaite, mettre ses neurones au service d'\u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s n'importe quel d\u00e9fi. \n\nCette chance les oblige, aussi. Si j'ai pu donner envie \u00e0 une petite partie des promos qui m'ont \u00e9cout\u00e9 d'aider notre pays \u00e0 se trouver un destin - le plus enthousiasmant possible - dans le respect des limites plan\u00e9taires, ce que ma g\u00e9n\u00e9ration - moi compris - n'a pas souvent r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 faire, eh bien je n'aurai pas compl\u00e8tement perdu mon temps. Comme le titre de l'intervention le sugg\u00e8re, il y a de quoi se challenger les neurones, et donc ne pas s'ennuyer, pendant toute une vie !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6852542266574176256,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6852542267102662656,urn:li:activity:6852542267102662656,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 44, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6852542267102662656,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6852542267102662656,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:6950025231999139715)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "axios.com \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Google, YouTube to prohibit ads and monetization on climate denial content by axios.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.axios.com/google-youtube-climate-change-734f2b05-40e2-4e05-9100-39de589b3b0a.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Google, YouTube to prohibit ads and monetization on climate denial content" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6852228060410863616,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Google et Youtube viennent d'indiquer qu'ils n'accepteront plus de traiter des publicit\u00e9s contenant du \"climatoscepticisme\". Victoire... ou pas tant que cela ?\n\nEn France, le probl\u00e8me est presque r\u00e9gl\u00e9 : il n'y quasiment plus une figure publique qui professe ouvertement que le changement climatique d'origine humaine n'existe pas, et nous en sommes - fort heureusement - \u00e0 discuter sur la mani\u00e8re de s'y attaquer. Il y a encore moins de publicit\u00e9s s'appuyant sur le \"n\u00e9gationnisme climatique\".\n\nMais le probl\u00e8me s'est d\u00e9plac\u00e9 ailleurs, \u00e0 savoir dans les d\u00e9clarations excessivement rassurantes qui expliquent que nous allons facilement r\u00e9gler le probl\u00e8me, en ne changeant qu'\u00e0 la marge l'organisation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale du monde qui nous entoure.\n\nDans cette cat\u00e9gorie l\u00e0 foisonnent les confusions dans les ordres de grandeur et les \u00e9chelles de temps (par exemple UN avion \u00e0 hydrog\u00e8ne en 2035 qui va significativement contribuer \u00e0 la baisse des \u00e9missions du transport a\u00e9rien d'ici 2050), les m\u00e9thodes faites pour se rassurer et non attaquer le probl\u00e8me de mani\u00e8re exhaustive et syst\u00e9mique (par exemple limiter les \u00e9missions prises en compte au \"scope 1\", ou limiter la politique d'investissement \"bas carbone\" \u00e0 l'exclusion du charbon), ou encore les d\u00e9clarations de \"neutralit\u00e9\" des entreprises alors que les produits, march\u00e9s, organisations restent essentiellement les m\u00eames, ce qui est \u00e9videmment physiquement impossible.\n\nL'engagement de Google et Youtube serait donc autrement plus s\u00e9rieux s'ils s'engageaient \u00e0 bannir tout greenwashing de leurs pubs, et \u00e0 n'en prendre aucune qui \u00e9voque un produit ou service neutre en carbone. 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Il faut se garder de penser que les r\u00e9sultats seraient identiques dans d'autres pays occidentaux, car les Etats Unis dont le royaume de l'individualisme et du \"d\u00e9brouille toi toi-m\u00eame\", mais il est int\u00e9ressant de constater que les 13-17 ans de ce pays consid\u00e8rent que la responsabilit\u00e9 premi\u00e8re des \u00e9missions est avant tout celle des individus, et non des entreprises, ou m\u00eame des politiques, m\u00eame s'ils comptent beaucoup sur l'innovation des entreprises pour r\u00e9soudre une partie du probl\u00e8me.\n\nLes 2/3 des adolescents am\u00e9ricains indiquent par ailleurs qu'ils sont inquiets pour leur future qualit\u00e9 de vie \u00e0 cause du changement climatique.\n\nDe fait, dans cette histoire il y a une question de poule et d'oeuf qui reste un \u00e9ternel d\u00e9bat. Les entreprises n'existent pas sans clients. Ces derniers n'ont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pas un revolver sur la tempe quand ils ach\u00e8tent un v\u00eatement suppl\u00e9mentaire, le logement le plus grand possible pour leur budget ou la voiture la plus grosse possible pour leur budget, une t\u00e9l\u00e9 suppl\u00e9mentaire ou un abonnement \u00e0 Netflix, et un steak plut\u00f4t que oeufs ou des pommes de terre. Mais sym\u00e9triquement, comme aurait pu dire Coluche, il suffit de ne pas faire quelque chose pour que ca ne se vende pas ! \n\nIl en va de m\u00eame pour la politique : les \u00e9lus sont... \u00e9lus. Ils ont donc, par construction dans le syst\u00e8me d\u00e9mocratique, un r\u00f4le d'ex\u00e9cuteur testamentaire, et souvent ils ne font que refl\u00e9ter les contradictions propres de la population, ou entre ses structures constitu\u00e9es (religions, entreprises, syndicats...), car nous avons trop souvent envie d'avoir le beurre et l'argent du beurre. \n\nMais ils ont aussi leur libre arbitre propre, car il est de nombreux sujets sur lesquels ils peuvent (doivent !) prendre le temps de \"r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir pour nous\", puis prendre des d\u00e9cisions en apparence difficiles mais qui finiront par ne plus l'\u00eatre un peu plus tard.\n\nIl est clair que ce genre de sondage ne tranche pas ce d\u00e9bat. Mais il a le m\u00e9rite de le relancer, et se poser des questions est quand m\u00eame le premier pas pour trouver des r\u00e9ponses !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6852131270613340160,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6852131271091490816,urn:li:activity:6852131271091490816,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 19, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6852131271091490816,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6852131271091490816,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"text": "La s\u00e9curit\u00e9 alimentaire \u00e0 l'\u00e9preuve du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6851774295765467136,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\"La flamb\u00e9e des cours du bl\u00e9 [en 2010]\u00a0a particip\u00e9 au soul\u00e8vement des printemps arabes, un \u00e9v\u00e9nement qui a d\u00e9stabilis\u00e9 toute la r\u00e9gion\" est-il \u00e9crit dans cet article des Echos, qui rappelle que la d\u00e9rive climatique ne sera pas une bonne affaire pour les rendements agricoles, et qu'une situation de disette ou d'inflation alimentaire f\u00e9roce est un d\u00e9stabilisant politique majeur. Incidemment c'\u00e9tait le th\u00e8me central d'une conf\u00e9rence intitul\u00e9e \"de Daesh \u00e0 la COP 21\" que j'avais faite \u00e0 l'ESPCI en 2015 (https://lnkd.in/gaY7nrE ).\n\nSeule information qui me semble discutable dans cet article : \u00e9crire que \"(...) un r\u00e9chauffement non ma\u00eetris\u00e9 peut entra\u00eener une baisse de 30\u00a0% des rendements agricoles. La population mondiale est, elle, vou\u00e9e \u00e0 augmenter encore, si bien que les prix des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales pourraient grimper de quasiment 30\u00a0% d'ici \u00e0 2050, selon les mod\u00e8les \u00e9conomiques du GIEC (...)\".\n\nEvaluer une baisse de rendement des cultures est un exercice difficile, mais qui rel\u00e8ve essentiellement de la biologie et de la physique. Une fois que l'\u00e9volution des conditions climatiques (temp\u00e9ratures, pr\u00e9cipitations, humidit\u00e9 des sols, etc) est \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s cern\u00e9e - et d'ici \u00e0 2050 elle est raisonnablement ind\u00e9pendante de nos \u00e9missions \u00e0 cause de l'inertie du syst\u00e8me - il est possible d'\u00e9valuer comment les plantes cultiv\u00e9es - dont le comportement en fonction des conditions est observ\u00e9 exp\u00e9rimentalement - vont y r\u00e9sister ou pas. \n\nDisserter sur l'\u00e9volution des rendements reste donc un exercice qui a du sens (et les informations sur ce th\u00e8me font partie de ce qui est publi\u00e9 par le groupe 2 du GIEC, qui traite des impacts du changement climatique). Mais disserter sur des prix \u00e0 30 ans, l\u00e0 il me semble que nous nous rapprochons un peu trop de l'art divinatoire pour que cela m\u00e9rite d'\u00eatre mentionn\u00e9 dans un article.\n\n\"mais c'est le GIEC\" ! Oui, mais le groupe 3, celui qui rend compte des travaux d'\u00e9conomistes sur la question. Ses conclusions n'ont pas de force plus probante que la mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re qui est publi\u00e9e dans les revues d'\u00e9conomie : en mati\u00e8re de pr\u00e9vision de prix \u00e0 30 ans, ca ou rien, c'est pareil :).\n\nLa conclusion qu'il faut garder en t\u00eate, c'est qu'un d\u00e9faut de production de 30% c'est des pans entiers de la population qui vont fortement remuer, avec des migrations qui d\u00e9stabiliseront les r\u00e9gimes politiques au-del\u00e0 de ce que l'on peut imaginer. 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6851767321288048640,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les combustibles fossiles utilis\u00e9s par les machines qui ont fait la civilisation industrielle, dont les centrales \u00e9lectriques, se composent de p\u00e9trole, gaz et charbon. Le p\u00e9trole est peu utilis\u00e9 pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (quelques % de la production mondiale), mais ce n'est pas le cas du gaz (environ 25% de la production mondiale) et du charbon (environ 35%). \n\nL'essentiel des centrales fossiles dans le monde ont un facteur de charge bien inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 100%, souvent plus proche de 50% (sauf les centrales \u00e0 lignite, qui elles tournent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00e0 pleine capacit\u00e9 en permanence). D\u00e8s lors qu'un pays poss\u00e8de \u00e0 la fois du gaz et du charbon dans son parc de centrales (cas de l'Allemagne par exemple), alors, en fonction du prix de chaque combustible, et \u00e9ventuellement du prix du CO2 l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il existe, les \u00e9lectriciens arbitrent entre ces deux modes.\n\nDerni\u00e8rement, le prix du gaz a beaucoup augment\u00e9. Par effet d'entra\u00eenement, la consommation de charbon repart \u00e0 la hausse, puisque c'est le combustible \"de report\" si le gaz devient trop cher. Et, toujours par effet d'entra\u00eenement, le prix du charbon aussi.\n\nIl faut y ajouter que ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es la production chinoise (la Chine utilise \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s a moiti\u00e9 du charbon mondial) a baiss\u00e9 (difficile d'en conna\u00eetre la raison \"comme ca\", toutes les explications circulant entre le \"peak charbon\" qui approche et la volont\u00e9 du pays de diminuer sa consommation \u00e0 cause de la pollution), et que les importations de ce pays sont proches de leur plus haut historique. \n\nA production \u00e9lectrique identique, le charbon est 2 \u00e0 3 fois plus \u00e9missif que le gaz, et 100 fois plus \u00e9missif que le nucl\u00e9aire (la comparaison avec l'\u00e9olien et le solaire est plus difficile, car il est explicitement dit par RTE que l'on ne peut pas comparer \"comme ca\" un mode pilotable et un mode non pilotable, qui ne rendent pas le m\u00eame service). Il est par ailleurs le plus destructeur pour l'environnement, de loin (https://lnkd.in/ghDXmyh ). \n\nVoir un report sur le charbon - qui est abondant - fait malheureusement partie des choses \"normales\" si on laisse les prix de march\u00e9 g\u00e9rer le manque de p\u00e9trole (qui va s'accentuer dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir, voir https://lnkd.in/dW3FREk ) ou de gaz (qui est \"structurel\" dans les pays importateurs d'Asie). Pour \u00e9viter cela, il faut piloter la d\u00e9carbonation de mani\u00e8re volontaire et planifi\u00e9e." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6851767321288048640,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6851767322013650946,urn:li:activity:6851767322013650946,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 27, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6851767322013650946,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6851767322013650946,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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Rendre ces motivations explicites et les accepter comme motivations principales n'est, de fait, pas n\u00e9cessairement desservir la cause, puisqu'elles existent !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6851561269682552832,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6851561270429130752,urn:li:activity:6851561270429130752,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 43, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6851561270429130752,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6851561270429130752,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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World\". Il se base sur quasiment 2 millions d'observations, effectu\u00e9es de 1978 \u00e0 2019, sur 12.000 sites situ\u00e9s dans 73 pays ayant des esp\u00e8ces coralliennes dans leurs eaux.\n\nAlors que la temp\u00e9rature plan\u00e9taire n'est mont\u00e9e que de 1,2\u00b0C, les oc\u00e9ans tropicaux ont perdu environ 14% de leurs coraux entre 2009 et 2018. Occupant 0,2% des fonds oc\u00e9aniques seulement (ils sont par construction absents d\u00e8s qu'il n'y a plus de lumi\u00e8re, car ce sont des \u00eatre symbiotiques comportant des algues, et ces derni\u00e8res ont besoin de lumi\u00e8re), les coraux ne sont pas seulement jolis, ils abritent aussi un quart des esp\u00e8ces marines environ.\n\nA 1,5\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement, les trois quarts disparaitraient, selon le rapport du GIEC sur 1,5 \u00b0C. Il est difficile de pr\u00e9dire les cons\u00e9quences de l'acidification de l'oc\u00e9an, qui augmentera \u00e9galement \u00e0 l'avenir, et qui ne va pas aider.\n\nRappelons que notre pays, qui dispose du 2\u00e8 domaine maritime au monde, est un peu concern\u00e9 par le probl\u00e8me..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6851399246189494272,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6851399246579556352,urn:li:activity:6851399246579556352,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 18, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6851399246579556352,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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soci\u00e9t\u00e9 bas carbone" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6851396694664331264,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Jeudi 7 octobre \u00e0 18h, The Shift Project pr\u00e9sentera le rapport final du chantier \"logement\" du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise : \"Habiter dans une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 bas carbone\".\n\nComment acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer le rythme des r\u00e9novations dans les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir ? Quels sont les volumes souhaitables en termes de constructions neuves ? 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6851050615276093440,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un prix du gaz qui augmente n'aura pas que des cons\u00e9quences dans le chauffage et l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Dans les autres r\u00e9percussions, il y a aussi l'impact (\u00e0 la hausse) sur le prix des engrais azot\u00e9s. En effet, ces derniers sont fabriqu\u00e9s avec de l'ammoniac, lui-m\u00eame produit avec de l'hydrog\u00e8ne, ce dernier \u00e9tant issu du reformage du gaz (op\u00e9ration qui consiste \u00e0 chauffer tr\u00e8s fort un m\u00e9lange de gaz - CH4 - et de vapeur d'eau - H2O - pour obtenir H2 et CO2).\n\nUn prix du gaz qui augmente fortement, c'est donc un prix des engrais qui augmente aussi : il a doubl\u00e9 en l'espace d'un an. C'est aussi ce qui s'est produit avec le prix du p\u00e9trole, qui lui pilote le cout du transport, mais aussi le prix de la nourriture sur \"les march\u00e9s\". R\u00e9sultat des courses : le prix de la nourriture s'approche de ce qu'il \u00e9tait en 2011 (https://lnkd.in/dPSxXhQJ ), ann\u00e9e o\u00f9 se sont d\u00e9clench\u00e9es des \u00e9meutes de la faim dans les pays d'Afrique du Nord fortement importateurs de nourriture et priv\u00e9s de recettes \u00e0 l'exportation par d\u00e9faut de touristes (on \u00e9tait apr\u00e8s 2009...).\n\nM\u00eames causes dans ces m\u00eames pays (prix de la nourriture \u00e9lev\u00e9, d\u00e9faut de recettes \u00e0 l'exportation \u00e0 cause du covid cette fois), m\u00eames effets ? 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Aujourd'hui, il revient sur le d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique. ABONNEZ-VOUS pour plus de vid\u00e9os : http://bit.ly/radioE1 LE DIRECT : http://www.europe1.fr/direct-video..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Philippe Val : \"Je suis coupable du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique et de la hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6851047090479497216,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans la s\u00e9rie \"je ne l'aurais vraiment pas pari\u00e9\", l'ancien r\u00e9dacteur en chef de Charlie Hebdo, que l'on n'imagine pas vraiment \u00eatre un supp\u00f4t de l'establishment, ni des partis de droite, fait un \"coming out pronucl\u00e9aire\" au micro d'Europe 1.\n\nCar, et c'est malheureux de mon point de vue, le nucl\u00e9aire est devenu un \u00e9l\u00e9ment de clivage g\u00e9n\u00e9rationnel, et partisan. Les \"vieux\" y sont nettement plus favorables que les jeunes, et les gens de droite bien plus que les gens de gauche, m\u00eame si le soutien \u00e0 cette \u00e9nergie a beaucoup progress\u00e9 depuis 2 ans (https://lnkd.in/dYr8kT9u ).\n\nEn fait, le soutien au nucl\u00e9aire est d'autant plus faible que les gens se disent pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par les probl\u00e8mes d'environnement, ce qui, pour qui essaie d'appuyer ses conclusions sur les faits opposables, est paradoxal. Le nucl\u00e9aire est en effet bien plus \"propre\" que toute alternative pour la production \u00e9lectrique : il \u00e9met moins de CO2 que les modes fossiles, et consomme (beaucoup) moins d'espace et de mat\u00e9riaux que les modes ENR diffus (solaire et vent).\n\nIl y a cependant des cartes qui commencent \u00e0 \u00eatre rebattues ici et l\u00e0. A la primaire des Verts, une candidate avait d\u00e9clar\u00e9 ne pas vouloir fermer pr\u00e9matur\u00e9ment de r\u00e9acteurs si elle \u00e9tait \u00e9lue. Alors que, statistiquement, les jeunes femmes sont les plus hostiles \u00e0 cette \u00e9nergie, de tr\u00e8s nombreuses associations qui soutiennent le nucl\u00e9aire (Voix du Nucl\u00e9aire, la SFEN, Mothers for Nuclear, Energy for Hymanity, etc) sont dirig\u00e9es par... des femmes plut\u00f4t jeunes.\n\nLa situation souhaitable, c'est \u00e9videmment celle o\u00f9 le d\u00e9bat politique arrive \u00e0 s\u00e9parer les faits des opinions, pour s'accorder sur les premiers, et \u00e9ventuellement s'opposer sur les conclusions qu'il convient d'en tirer pour la gestion au mieux de notre avenir commun. Esp\u00e9rons que nous y arriverons un jour !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6851047090479497216,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6851047091083472896,urn:li:activity:6851047091083472896,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 57, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6851047091083472896,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6851047091083472896,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6851047091083472896", 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6850682804221566976,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Alors que les Verts viennent de d\u00e9signer leur candidat \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle, ma chronique de Samedi dernier sur RTL portait sur la question suivante : l'environnement doit-il \u00eatre le marqueur d'un parti particulier ? Et la r\u00e9ponse (en 3 minutes) est que id\u00e9alement non. \n\nLa finitude de la terre, et le fait que l'\u00e9conomie soit dans l'environnement et non l'inverse, devraient faire partie des \u00e9vidences pour la totalit\u00e9 des partis politiques. C'est tout le sujet des faits et des opinions : ces derni\u00e8res devraient id\u00e9alement se limiter \u00e0 proposer des modes de gestion propres \u00e0 chaque parti en se basant sur des faits qui sont les m\u00eames pour tous.\n\nIl reste un peu de travail avant d'en arriver l\u00e0, et la deuxi\u00e8me partie de cette courte chronique souligne le r\u00f4le des media dans l'affaire. Car les premiers \u00e0 pouvoir faire quelque chose pour que la prise en compte de l'environnement - c'est \u00e0 dire la physique, la chimie et la biologie - soit int\u00e9gr\u00e9e de mani\u00e8re homog\u00e8ne dans tous les programmes, ce sont celles et ceux qui posent des questions quand ils ont un(e) politique en face d'eux. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9206552277223484743)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "ft.com \u2022 3 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: US shale drillers cannot contain oil price rise, Pioneer boss says by ft.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.ft.com/content/c21eb656-8d09-45ce-a13a-7d8419426b05" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "US shale drillers cannot contain oil price rise, Pioneer boss says" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6850680105249853440,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le patron de Pioneer Natural Resources, qui est le plus gros op\u00e9rateur dans le shale oil am\u00e9ricain, d\u00e9clare au Financial Times que les producteurs US ne sont pas capables d'augmenter suffisamment leur production pour calmer le prix du baril, qui vient de d\u00e9passer 80 dollars. \n\nLa production US est en effet 1,5 million de barils sous son niveau maximum atteint en novembre 2019, et surtout le shale oil a la particularit\u00e9 de n'\u00eatre rentable que si la production n'augmente pas, voire baisse.\n\nEn effet, la production d'un puits de shale oil est tr\u00e8s rapidement d\u00e9clinante (bien plus que pour un puits de p\u00e9trole \"conventionnel\"), et pour qu'un bassin produise une quantit\u00e9 croissante il faut forer de mani\u00e8re croissante aussi et cela repr\u00e9sente des couts d'investissement tels que les op\u00e9rateurs perdent de l'argent (car il faut aussi r\u00e9mun\u00e9rer le capital et payer les frais d'exploitation).\n\nL'arr\u00eat des forages signifie instantan\u00e9ment le d\u00e9clin de la production mais aussi l'arr\u00eat du premier poste de d\u00e9penses et donc... une affaire qui devient rentable.\n\nLe patron de Pioneer ne dit du reste pas autre chose quand il affirme que \"shale producers would keep using their burgeoning cash piles to pay shareholders, not fund new drilling\". \n\nAux prix du gaz qui se payent un petit coup de chaud, il se pourrait bien que s'ajoute rapidement la m\u00eame chose pour le baril. En fait c'est juste une question de temps avant qu'un nouveau choc ne se produise pour un monde d\u00e9pendant toujours du p\u00e9trole de mani\u00e8re massive." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6850680105249853440,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6850680105786720256,urn:li:activity:6850680105786720256,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 16, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6850680105786720256,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6850680105786720256,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6850361903181508608,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Presque 300.000 emplois vis\u00e9s dans la \"fili\u00e8re v\u00e9lo\" \u00e0 l'horizon 2030 : ce sont les chiffres \"des minist\u00e8res\" selon BFM TV (il serait int\u00e9ressant d'avoir la source exacte !) si on acc\u00e9l\u00e9rait sur cette fili\u00e8re, et cela est du m\u00eame ordre de grandeur que ce que The Shift Project voit comme emplois associ\u00e9s au d\u00e9veloppement de ce mode de transport (https://lnkd.in/dGQyXmGX ). \n\nEn effet, plus de monde \u00e0 v\u00e9lo, notamment \u00e0 assistance \u00e9lectrique, pour remplacer des d\u00e9placements du quotidien, souvent seul en voiture, cela signifie des v\u00e9los \u00e0 assembler, des pi\u00e8ces (jantes, cadres - dont cadres sp\u00e9ciaux pour v\u00e9los cargo, cassettes, p\u00e9dales, d\u00e9railleurs, chaines, batteries, moteurs \u00e9lectriques, pneus...) \u00e0 fabriquer, des accessoires et du textile (\u00e0 commencer par des v\u00eatements de pluie !), des v\u00e9los \u00e0 entretenir, etc, et quand on calcule ce que cela peut repr\u00e9senter en partant du temps n\u00e9cessaire \u00e0 chaque op\u00e9ration (et non de l'argent disponible), cela finit par faire du monde.\n\nCela peut aussi faire du monde dans le BTP, puisqu'il faut am\u00e9nager la voirie (passer des voies pour voiture \u00e0 des voies pour v\u00e9lo, installer des parkings \u00e0 v\u00e9lo, des bornes de recharge pour VAE), et tout cela pourrait servir \u00e0 r\u00e9sorber une partie de notre d\u00e9ficit commercial, puisqu'aujourd'hui nous importons une large partie de nos voitures, mais aussi la totalit\u00e9 du p\u00e9trole, et bien sur l'essentiel des v\u00e9los, pi\u00e8ces de rechange, batteries, etc.\n\nPendant longtemps le v\u00e9lo a \u00e9t\u00e9 consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un gadget par les pouvoirs publics (\u00e0 preuve le montant croupion consacr\u00e9 au plan v\u00e9lo sur 7 ans : 350 millions, soit 50 par an, l'aum\u00f4ne quoi). 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8447885771898734421)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Patrick Pouyann\u00e9 (TotalEnergies) : \u00ab On fait les autruches si on fait croire aux gens que les renouvelables sont gratuits \u00bb by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/on-fait-les-autruches-si-on-fait-croire-aux-gens-que-les-renouvelables-sont-gratuits-alerte-le-patron-de-totalenergies-1351123" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Patrick Pouyann\u00e9 (TotalEnergies)\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0On fait les autruches si on fait croire aux gens que les renouvelables sont gratuits\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6850358873811886080,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pour qui sait lire entre les lignes, cette interview du patron de Total Energies est extr\u00eamement int\u00e9ressante. \n\nPouyann\u00e9 explique ainsi que le gaz est le compl\u00e9ment indispensable aux ENR : \"Oui, le gaz est une \u00e9nergie fossile, mais il \u00e9met moins de CO2 que le charbon et il a sa place dans la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique parce qu'il permet de pallier l'intermittence des \u00e9nergies renouvelables et leur d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 la m\u00e9t\u00e9o\". \n\nTraduction : selon l'int\u00e9ress\u00e9, disposer d'un syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique 100% ENR n'est pas possible, puisque d\u00e8s qu'il y a source non pilotable il y a besoin d'un back up.\n\nOn y lit aussi que \"l'\u00e9nergie va couter plus cher\", puisque \"La transition requiert de tr\u00e8s gros investissements. Et l'\u00e9nergie co\u00fbtera plus cher.\". \n\nPouyann\u00e9 confirme que la production mondiale de p\u00e9trole passera par un maximum avant 2030 (au Shift Project nous pensons que le plus probable est qu'il soit survenu en 2018 : https://lnkd.in/dwPcgve ). A court terme, \"les capacit\u00e9s de production inutilis\u00e9es ne sont pas \u00e9normes, et la demande, elle, est bien repartie\". C'est \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la configuration qu'il y avait en 2006, et on conna\u00eet la suite. \n\nCette interview rappelle donc que, outre le climat, nous avons une \"voiture balai\" en ce qui concerne le p\u00e9trole : la d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion g\u00e9ologique. Ce n'est pas la premi\u00e8re fois que le patron de Total Energies s'exprime publiquement sur la chose, mais, pour le moment, cela n'a pas l'air d'\u00e9mouvoir le pouvoir politique plus que ca. \n\nLes candidat(e)s \u00e0 la prochaine pr\u00e9sidentielle devraient pourtant bien \u00e9couter, parce que cela signifie qu'il est tout \u00e0 fait possible que l'essentiel de leur mandat se d\u00e9roule dans un contexte o\u00f9, comme pour Hollande et pour Macron I, une large partie de l'\u00e9volution \u00e9conomique \u00e9chappe \u00e0 leur contr\u00f4le, puisque cela va d\u00e9pendre avant tout de ce qu'il sortira des puits de p\u00e9trole." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6850358873811886080,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6850358874403291136,urn:li:activity:6850358874403291136,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 60, 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A noter : Les courbes \u00e0 29'12 sont nouvelles. Partie Questions/r\u00e9ponses \u00e0 01:06:55 Diaporama :..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Jancovici : Panser plus de plaies avec moins de moyens - 09/09/2021 - Cercle Vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9s" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6850008863886868480,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Cercle \"Vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9s et Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\" (https://lnkd.in/debcEYq5 ) m'a invit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire une intervention (\u00e0 distance) sur le th\u00e8me \"Penser les vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019heure de la d\u00e9rive climatique et de la rar\u00e9faction des ressources\". Une partie de l'intervention initiale est \"classique\", avec quand m\u00eame quelques supports nouveaux \u00e0 29'12 sur l'\u00e9volution, sur un si\u00e8cle, du temps de travail, du pouvoir d'achat et des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s.\n\nLe d\u00e9bat d\u00e9marre \u00e0 1'06'50. Il porte \u00e9videmment sur la mani\u00e8re de prendre en charge les plus vuln\u00e9rables dans une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui voit son abondance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique diminuer (et une des raisons pour lesquelles cette intervention m'int\u00e9ressait \u00e9tait justement pour la discussion \u00e0 suivre). Beaucoup de questions int\u00e9ressantes pos\u00e9es, et pas encore toutes les r\u00e9ponses, \u00e9videmment...." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6850008863886868480,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6850008864398577664,urn:li:activity:6850008864398577664,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 4, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6850008864398577664,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6850008864398577664,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8771676275315843707)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Pouvoir d'achat : Jean Castex bloque le prix du gaz et plafonne la hausse de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/economie-france/budget-fiscalite/pouvoir-dachat-jean-castex-bloque-le-prix-du-gaz-et-plafonne-la-hausse-de-lelectricite-1351018" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pouvoir d'achat\u00a0: Jean Castex bloque le prix du gaz et plafonne la hausse de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6849599051768311809,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Au secours, le prix du gaz augmente ! Peut-on se dire que c'est juste la faute \u00e0 pas de chance ?\n\nLe gaz, tout le monde en veut, en particulier dans la production \u00e9lectrique, car il est deux \u00e0 trois fois moins \u00e9missif que le charbon. En Europe, les allemands veulent remplacer leur charbon et leur nucl\u00e9aire par un ensemble ENR+gaz, les italiens s'y sont mis apr\u00e8s Tchernobyl, les espagnols au moment du d\u00e9veloppement conjoint de l'\u00e9olien et du gaz, les belges veulent s'y mettre en remplacement du nucl\u00e9aire... et les fran\u00e7ais aussi depuis que Hollande a dit que le nucl\u00e9aire c'\u00e9tait pas terrible.\n\nDans le m\u00eame temps, la Chine importe de plus en plus, et les japonais sont au-dessus de leur niveau de 2011 (merci Fukushima). Ce combustible, quoi que fossile jouit d'une image \"sympathique\", entretenue avec succ\u00e8s par ses vendeurs (au moins en Europe).\n\nAvec une demande sans cesse croissante, il n'est donc pas tr\u00e8s \u00e9tonnant qu'un jour ou l'autre - d\u00e8s que l'offre ne suit pas, ce qui est juste une question de temps avec une ressource qui, comme pour le p\u00e9trole, ne sera pas extraite en quantit\u00e9s ind\u00e9finiment croissantes - les prix fassent un petit tour vers le haut. Le march\u00e9 du GNL est mondial, et nous sommes en comp\u00e9tition avec les pays d'Asie qui sont pr\u00eats \u00e0 le payer cher.\n\nIl y aurait eu un moyen d'\u00e9viter partiellement une trop grosse facture pour le pays : mettre en place, il y a longtemps, des politiques publiques un peu volontaristes pour utiliser moins de gaz. \n\nLa version \"lib\u00e9rale\", c'est de taxer le carbone, auquel cas le prix pour le consommateur augmente, mais l'argent pr\u00e9lev\u00e9 reste dans le pays consommateur, qui n'est pas appauvri. Ce produit de la fiscalit\u00e9 peut \u00eatre utilis\u00e9 pour faire des h\u00f4pitaux ou subventionner de l'isolation ou des pompes \u00e0 chaleur. A contrario, une hausse du prix de march\u00e9 envoie l'argent dans les poches du producteur, et donc appauvrit le pays. \n\nRefuser la taxe pour attendre sagement la hausse du prix de march\u00e9 est donc la mauvaise option. Par contre, se contenter de taxer ne dit pas au consommateur ce qu'il faut faire : isoler ? Passer \u00e0 la pompe \u00e0 chaleur ? Baisser le thermostat ? Augmenter le nombre de personnes dans le logement pour diminuer la facture par personne ? Souvent le consommateur n'a pas les moyens de faire de savants calculs pour prendre la meilleure option, et il faut attendre que l'offre le fasse pour lui.\n\nLa version plus encadr\u00e9e est de r\u00e9glementer, par exemple en obligeant au remplacement des chaudi\u00e8res gaz en fin de vie par des pompes \u00e0 chaleur. A ce moment on reste avec un prix de march\u00e9, mais la demande baisse. Cela permet de baisser la facture globale du pays, mais pas celle des consommateurs qui sont toujours au gaz. \n\nLa plus mauvaise mani\u00e8re de g\u00e9rer le probl\u00e8me, c'est de toute fa\u00e7on ce que nous faisons en ce moment : ne rien avoir anticip\u00e9 (alors que c'\u00e9tait possible), et g\u00e9rer comme on peut la crise quand elle arrive. Peut-on esp\u00e9rer qu'un jour il en soit autrement ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6849599051768311809,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6849599052603002880,urn:li:activity:6849599052603002880,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 137, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6849599052603002880,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6849599052603002880,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8443239961904561689)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Opinion | La d\u00e9croissance contre l'\u00e9cologie by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/amp/1349401" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Opinion | La d\u00e9croissance contre l'\u00e9cologie" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6849219651575025664,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Depuis quelques temps, on voit appara\u00eetre ici et l\u00e0 des prises de position \"anti-d\u00e9croissance\" comme l'article ci-dessous, alors qu'auparavant les d\u00e9veloppements se contentaient d'\u00eatre \"pro-croissance\".\n\nDe fait, proposer comme projet de soci\u00e9t\u00e9 l'exact inverse de ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 l'objectif pendant longtemps est d\u00e9stabilisant. C'est m\u00eame peut-\u00eatre une erreur de communication, car cela demande de consid\u00e9rer que l'\u00e9volution qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 la n\u00f4tre depuis deux si\u00e8cles n'\u00e9tait pas une bonne id\u00e9e, et m\u00eame les \"pro-d\u00e9croissance\" sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement contents d'avoir un frigo, l'eau courante, un v\u00e9lo performant, et... internet pour exprimer leur avis :)\n\nIl y a cependant quelque chose d'int\u00e9ressant derri\u00e8re ce point de vue : l'id\u00e9e qu'il ne faut plus conditionner les plans pour l'avenir \u00e0 l'existence de la croissance. Et l\u00e0, nous ne sommes plus dans l'opinion, mais dans les faits. Car, si on reste homog\u00e8ne dans ce que l'on mesure, la croissance est d\u00e9sormais aux abonn\u00e9s absents depuis 10 ans en Europe, et, en tendance, non seulement elle ne reviendra pas, mais la contraction devrait s'amplifier.\n\n\"La croissance\", c'est celle du PIB, qui, tel qu'il a \u00e9t\u00e9 con\u00e7u il y a presque un si\u00e8cle, \u00e9tait cens\u00e9 mesurer de mani\u00e8re agr\u00e9g\u00e9e la production de biens (surtout) et de services (marginalement \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque) issus de notre syst\u00e8me productif.\n\nOr, produire un bien est une affaire de transformation de ressources naturelles. Il se trouve que la transformation a son unit\u00e9 de compte en physique : l'\u00e9nergie. Pour faire plus de biens, il faut donc transformer plus, et donc utiliser plus d'\u00e9nergie. En pratique cette derni\u00e8re est utilis\u00e9e par un parc croissant de machines.\n\nM\u00eame les services ob\u00e9issent largement \u00e0 cette d\u00e9finition. Un h\u00f4pital, un train, un r\u00e9seau de t\u00e9l\u00e9communication, ce sont avant tout des machines qui demandent de l'\u00e9nergie pour \u00eatre fabriqu\u00e9es et pour fonctionner.\n\nEn Europe, l'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique est contraint \u00e0 la baisse en tendance depuis 2006. Le p\u00e9trole est de moins en moins disponible pour nous depuis le pic de production (mondial) sur le conventionnel survenu en 2008. Pour le gaz, la cause est le pic de production de la Mer du Nord en 2005. Pour le charbon, la production europ\u00e9enne a culmin\u00e9 il y a un demi-si\u00e8cle. Gaz et charbon sont malcommodes \u00e0 importer massivement. \n\nL'hydro est stable (tout est \u00e9quip\u00e9 ou presque), le nucl\u00e9aire en d\u00e9clin voulu, et les nouvelles ENR bien trop \"faibles\" physiquement pour compenser le reste. Notre parc domestique de machines va donc travailler de moins en moins, ce qui signifie, aux gains d'efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique pr\u00e8s (faibles), que le PIB \"vrai\"... diminuera.\n\nLa d\u00e9croissance est donc d\u00e9j\u00e0 l\u00e0 de mani\u00e8re larv\u00e9e en pratique, et va s'accentuer (https://lnkd.in/gPsGK-F ). Ce qui est urgent, c'est de r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 la meilleure mani\u00e8re de piloter notre destin dans ce contexte. Dire \"je veux pas\" ne nous sera h\u00e9las pas tr\u00e8s utile." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6849219651575025664,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6849219652233506816,urn:li:activity:6849219652233506816,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 105, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6849219652233506816,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6849219652233506816,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9107300336228454272)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rfi.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Summer wildfires emitted record amount of planet-warming CO2 by rfi.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.rfi.fr/en/science-and-technology/20210922-summer-wildfires-emitted-record-amount-of-planet-warming-co2" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Summer wildfires emitted record amount of planet-warming CO2" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6849034480015970304,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "2,5 milliards de tonnes de CO2, soit environ 6% des \u00e9missions annuelles de ce gaz : c'est ce que les feux de for\u00eat ont rel\u00e2ch\u00e9 dans l'atmosph\u00e8re en juillet et aout de cette ann\u00e9e, \u00e0 cause des incendies majeurs ayant eu lien en Sib\u00e9rie, aux USA, et encore ailleurs. \n\nCe processus illustre malheureusement un emballement connu depuis longtemps : climat plus chaud (et sec l'\u00e9t\u00e9) -> incendies qui se d\u00e9clenchent plus facilement -> \u00e9missions qui augmentent -> climat plus chaud...\n\nCe risque est aujourd'hui mal appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 par les mod\u00e8les. Ces derniers savent bien mod\u00e9liser l'\u00e9volution des param\u00e8tres climatiques, mais pas du tout si cela va rendre possible la diss\u00e9mination \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle d'un parasite ou d'un champignon qui va d\u00e9cimer les arbres (et une fois morts, donc secs, ils prennent feu et enflamment les arbres voisins encore vivants). Les valeurs moyennes sont d\u00e9finies de mani\u00e8re robuste, mais un peu moins les vagues de chaleur, or ce sont les extr\u00eames qui tuent la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation \u00e0 tr\u00e8s grande vitesse, et qui peuvent alors contribuer \u00e0 l'emballement.\n\nDes for\u00eats qui meurent, ce sont aussi des sols qui retiennent moins l'eau, donc de nouveaux arbres qui peuvent moins facilement reprendre (raison pour laquelle les forestiers aiment de moins en moins les coupes rases sur grandes \u00e9tendues). Ce point l\u00e0 n'est pas non plus bien appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 par les simulations, qui globalement - on le voit ann\u00e9e apr\u00e8s ann\u00e9e - ont plut\u00f4t minor\u00e9 les risques.\n\nRappelons qu'\u00e0 cause de l'inertie du syst\u00e8me climatique, quand on consid\u00e8rera que la plaisanterie a assez dur\u00e9, la seule garantie \u00e0 ce moment l\u00e0 sera que ce sera pire derri\u00e8re. Il faudrait donc s'agiter avant d'en arriver l\u00e0... combien de millions d'hectares br\u00fbl\u00e9s (et derri\u00e8re de probl\u00e8mes pour les hommes) valent la 5G, le voyage en avion, le SUV, la chaudi\u00e8re au fioul, les achats de trucs et de machins, l'abandon du nucl\u00e9aire, un gros cheptel bovin, ou une garde robe copieuse ? Question d\u00e9rangeante, mais question r\u00e9elle..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6849034480015970304,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6849034480561205248,urn:li:activity:6849034480561205248,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 45, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6849034480561205248,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6849034480561205248,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9115594259931340557)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "challenges.fr \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: TotalEnergies table sur un pic de demande de p\u00e9trole avant 2030 - Challenges by challenges.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.challenges.fr/finance-et-marche/totalenergies-table-sur-un-pic-de-demande-de-petrole-avant-2030_782367" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "TotalEnergies table sur un pic de demande de p\u00e9trole avant 2030 - Challenges" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6848905297788985344,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Depuis que les g\u00e9ologues p\u00e9troliers parlent d'une offre de p\u00e9trole qui serait contrainte par la g\u00e9ologie (le \"peak oil\"), les p\u00e9troliers eux-m\u00eames ont choisi de parler du m\u00eame ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne en parlant de \"pic de la demande\". \n\nIl se trouve que, sur terre, tout le p\u00e9trole produit est consomm\u00e9. Il n'y a pas de gros stocks en surface qui pourraient augmenter pendant des ann\u00e9es avec une production qui croit pendant que la demande d\u00e9croit.\n\nAnnoncer le pic de la demande, c'est donc aussi annoncer le pic de la production. Il y a \"juste\" une petite astuce s\u00e9mantique qui consiste \u00e0 imputer ce pic au consommateur, qui serait devenu sage (alors que, depuis que le p\u00e9trole a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9couvert, ledit consommateur ne s'est jamais limit\u00e9 de lui-m\u00eame), et non \u00e0 l'impossibilit\u00e9 du producteur de fournir. \n\nRappelons que, malgr\u00e9 une multiplication des investissements par 3 entre 2000 et 2014, la production de p\u00e9trole des \"majors\" a baiss\u00e9 de 20% sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode. On peut donc se demander dans quelle mesure il ne s'agit pas d'une pure astuce s\u00e9mantique dans cette annonce de Total, qui ne fait que confirmer que le pic de production, c'est entre 2018 (maximum historique \u00e0 date) et dans pas longtemps. C'est aussi l'analyse du Shift Project : https://lnkd.in/dW3FREk\n\nClimat ou pas climat, il va donc falloir se sevrer..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6848905297788985344,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6848905298351022081,urn:li:activity:6848905298351022081,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 39, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6848905298351022081,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6848905298351022081,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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l'ann\u00e9e 2019, annonce Eurocontrol dans une note d'information : https://lnkd.in/drhqyeQ4\n\nLe seul pays qui a vu son trafic sortant revenir au m\u00eame niveau qu'en 2019 est le Luxembourg, qui est, semble-t-il, un hub pour le fret a\u00e9rien (pas tr\u00e8s en phase avec l'accord de Paris cette affaire). Par contre, pour l'essentiel des pays la baisse reste inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 40%.\n\nCette baisse est un vrai sujet pour les gens qui vivent du transport a\u00e9rien, mais peut-on dire que cela a fortement baiss\u00e9 notre qualit\u00e9 de vie \"globale\" ?\n\nSi la r\u00e9ponse est non, ou essentiellement non, cela montre qu'il y a des secteurs o\u00f9 le point le plus bloquant pour engendrer une baisse importante des \u00e9missions est moins la r\u00e9ticence des consommateurs que la r\u00e9ticence (que l'on peut comprendre !) des salari\u00e9s. C'est du reste ce qui est ressorti de la consultation large qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e \u00e0 l'universit\u00e9 des Shifters (\u00e0 1:10:19 de https://lnkd.in/d788KFN6 )\n\nA ce moment, la cl\u00e9 du changement s'appelle peut-\u00eatre avant tout s'occuper de reconversions (formations, investissements, accompagnement, etc). Et plus on l'anticipe, mieux ca se passe, comme d'habitude. A l'heure o\u00f9 les \u00e9cologistes d\u00e9signent leur candidat, il serait int\u00e9ressant d'entendre le/la vainqueur sur ce sujet de l'emploi des secteurs qui doivent se contracter (un sujet majeur pour The Shift Project)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6848608837612662785,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6848608838363439105,urn:li:activity:6848608838363439105,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 47, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6848608838363439105,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6848608838363439105,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, 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Notre pays souhaite arr\u00eater l'artificialisation. Notre pays souhaite proposer des offres alternatives pour se d\u00e9placer autrement qu'en voiture. La r\u00e9ponse est \u00e9vidente : on va faire une nouvelle autoroute. \n\nMais apr\u00e8s tout, le gouvernement aurait tort de se priver du confort de l'incoh\u00e9rence, puisqu'il est servi par une presse qui la cultive tout autant. Cet article de France Bleu ne contient ni le mot climat, ni le mot p\u00e9trole, ni le mot CO2, ni le mot \"effet de serre\". Bref, c'est le cas de le dire, circulez y'a rien \u00e0 voir.\n\nCette autoroute va absorber \u00e0 elle seule 480 millions, soit, sur juste un petit bout d'infrastructure \u00e0 voitures, plus que le plan v\u00e9lo qui, pour l'ensemble du pays, et pour 7 ans, n'en a que 350. \n\nEn fait, le premier d\u00e9terminant de ce genre d'ouvrage n'est malheureusement pas toujours la demande pressante de la population. Les plus grands pousse au crime sont trop souvent les \u00e9lus locaux et les entreprises du BTP, les premiers \u00e9coutant beaucoup les secondes. \n\nCela se retrouve dans le fait que les emplois - qui seraient tout autant pr\u00e9serv\u00e9s \u00e0 faire des pistes cyclables, et pour 480 millions Dieu sait qu'on en ferait... - sont toujours cit\u00e9s dans les communiqu\u00e9s de presse associ\u00e9s \u00e0 la r\u00e9alisation de ces infrastructures, le CO2 ou l'\u00e9nergie \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s jamais." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6848252091866062848,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6848252092449091584,urn:li:activity:6848252092449091584,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 160, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"text": "Un article paru dans le Financial Times (pas pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment l'organe officiel d'une ONG environnementale en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral) explique en quoi les engagements de neutralit\u00e9 pris par les entreprises consistent \u00e0 mettre la charge de la preuve sur ses successeurs plus ou moins lointains \u00e0 la t\u00eate de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9. \n\nNB : le texte int\u00e9gral de l'article est disponible sur d'autres sites, comme par exemple celui-ci : https://lnkd.in/eHqGFByn\n\nL'argumentaire pointe donc une faiblesse de ces engagements de neutralit\u00e9 qui n'est pas scientifique (car la neutralit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle d'une entreprise correspond \u00e0 une comptabilit\u00e9 plus que discutable : https://lnkd.in/dGTt6Zs et https://lnkd.in/db7JzB2q ), mais manag\u00e9riale. \n\nUne telle annonce de neutralit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'horizon 2050 ou 2040 donne en effet une cible qui devra \u00eatre atteinte par une autre \u00e9quipe que le management en place, qui s'ach\u00e8te donc la tranquillit\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme sans garantir le r\u00e9sultat \u00e0 terme.\n\nLe FT a en particulier regard\u00e9 le rapport entre la dur\u00e9e au terme de laquelle l'entreprise devra \u00eatre \"neutre\", et la longueur du mandat du dernier PDG parti. Le graphique figure sur l'image ci-dessous, et il est \u00e9difiant.\n\nLafarge, par exemple, serait \"neutre\" au bout de 13 fois la dur\u00e9e du mandat du dernier patron. Ce multiple n'est \"que\" de 3 pour Nestl\u00e9 ou Unilever, mais plus de 6 pour HSBC. Autrement dit, le sujet ne sera m\u00eame pas le probl\u00e8me du successeur imm\u00e9diat dans l'essentiel des cas.\n\nMais lorsque la \"neutralit\u00e9\" est annonc\u00e9 \u00e0 un horizon de temps court (dont \"tout de suite\"), il y a une autre faiblesse majeure : d\u00e9clarer que l'entreprise est d\u00e9j\u00e0 neutre, c'est dire que le probl\u00e8me est d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9gl\u00e9, et c'est par construction tuer toute capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 un changement profond au sein des collaborateurs. En effet, pourquoi vouloir remettre en cause l'existant si le probl\u00e8me est r\u00e9gl\u00e9 ?\n\nAnnonc\u00e9e pour plus tard, la \"neutralit\u00e9\" d'une entreprise est donc un report de la charge sur ceux qui suivront et une procrastination. Pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme d\u00e9j\u00e0 atteinte, c'est un anesth\u00e9siant. Dans tous les cas de figure, c'est donc une mauvaise id\u00e9e. \n\nLe vrai d\u00e9fi pour une entreprise n'est pas de se d\u00e9clarer neutre, et le faire n'aide pas. C'est de commencer \u00e0 mettre dans l'affaire des moyens humains et mat\u00e9riels \u00e0 la hauteur de l'enjeu : formation massive ; innovation technique & manag\u00e9riale massive ; reconversions massives (il faudra abandonner des activit\u00e9s existantes) ; syst\u00e8me de reporting adapt\u00e9 (d\u00e9ploiement d'une comptabilit\u00e9 carbone d\u00e9taill\u00e9e) ; etc. Et, au bout du compte, des entreprises o\u00f9 chaque collaborateur comprend l'enjeu et accepte que cela impactera son activit\u00e9 au quotidien. Ca va demander des efforts autrement plus importants que quelques d\u00e9clarations \u00e0 la presse." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6848145442811772928,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6848145443730325504,urn:li:activity:6848145443730325504,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 96, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6848145443730325504,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6848145443730325504,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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La dirigeante de l\u2019Allemagne a m\u00eame h\u00e9rit\u00e9 d\u2019un surnom : Klima-Kanzlerin, \u00ab la chanceli\u00e8re du climat \u00bb. Pourtant, le bilan de ses mesures en..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Comment Merkel a rat\u00e9 la transition \u00e9cologique de l'Allemagne" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6847916053142503424,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les temps changent, ou bien la chaine Youtube du Monde est g\u00e9r\u00e9e totalement ind\u00e9pendamment du journal papier ? Dans une vid\u00e9o r\u00e9cente, la \"transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique\" allemande est tout simplement qualifi\u00e9e d'\u00e9chec. En regardant les chiffres et les faits d'un peu pr\u00e8s (ce que tout bon journaliste devrait faire normalement !), il s'av\u00e8re que nos voisins ont d\u00e9pens\u00e9s des centaines de milliards pour ne pas faire mieux que les autres pays europ\u00e9ens. \n\nActualit\u00e9 oblige, ma chronique de Samedi dernier sur RTL disait la m\u00eame chose, mais sous une forme plut\u00f4t plus polie :) : il n'y a aucune raison de prendre exemple sur l'Allemagne en mati\u00e8re de lutte contre le changement climatique (https://lnkd.in/dheKMY8r ). 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l'int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 des travaux du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ), des fresques de toute nature, de la biodiversit\u00e9 au football, et la pr\u00e9sentation d'initiatives de terrain allant de la r\u00e9utilisation des jouets \u00e0 la plantation d'arbres chez les agriculteurs : pour sa premi\u00e8re \u00e9dition, je crois que l'on peut dire que l'universit\u00e9 d'\u00e9t\u00e9 des shifters, ou univershift\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 la hauteur de nos attentes. Un grand merci aux shifters qui ont tout organis\u00e9 sur leurs nuits et leurs week-ends, ce qui a peut-\u00eatre rappel\u00e9 pour certain(e)s l'\u00e9poque de l'organisation des galas \u00e9tudiants !\n\nCette vid\u00e9o reprend l'ensemble des interventions en pl\u00e9ni\u00e8re de la matin\u00e9e de Samedi 26, \u00e0 savoir :\n\n- une ouverture par le pr\u00e9sident des shifters, alexandre barr\u00e9, manifestement \u00e9mu, et si le ton d\u00e9clamatoire n'est pas celui d'un vieux routier des plateaux t\u00e9l\u00e9, le fond disait tout avec beaucoup de justesse sur cette association qui est devenue la deuxi\u00e8me jambe de la \"galaxie Shift\", avec 12000 inscrits, et qui reste pourtant enti\u00e8rement g\u00e9r\u00e9e - de mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s professionnelle - par des b\u00e9n\u00e9voles (que je remercie tr\u00e8s sinc\u00e8rement pour le travail accompli)\n\n- une br\u00e8ve introduction compl\u00e9mentaire de ma pomme\n\n- 6 pr\u00e9sentations br\u00e8ves mais intenses pour pr\u00e9senter des travaux sectoriels du PTEF (vue d'ensemble - Zeynep N. Kahraman-Clause, \u00e9nergie puis fret - Nicolas Raillard, agriculture et agroalimentaire - Marion Kentzel, Industrie lourde - Eric Berg\u00e9, sant\u00e9 - Laurie Marrauld, emploi - Yannick Saleman)\n\n- la pr\u00e9sentation des r\u00e9sultats d'une consultation tr\u00e8s large sur ce qui plait et ce qui bloque quand on parle \u00e0 des particuliers de transition et de d\u00e9carbonation par Anne-Charlotte Dagorn, \n\n- enfin une table ronde centr\u00e9e sur \"le d\u00e9fi de l'emploi dans la transition\", avec des repr\u00e9sentants d'organisations syndicales de salari\u00e9s et d'entreprises (Patrick Martin, pr\u00e9sident d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9 du MEDEF, Philippe Portier, secr\u00e9taire national CFDT, B\u00e9atrice Clicq, secr\u00e9taire conf\u00e9d\u00e9rale FO, G\u00e9rard Mardin\u00e9, secr\u00e9taire g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la CFE-CGC, et Emeric OUDIN, pr\u00e9sident du Centre des Jeunes Dirigeants.\n\nRefaire le monde, c'est compliqu\u00e9 et ca prend du temps. 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Quantit\u00e9 de glace pluriannuelle la premi\u00e8re semaine d\u2019ao\u00fbt (30 juillet au 5 ao\u00fbt), depuis le d\u00e9but des mesures en 1979. \u00a9 Robbie Mallett." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:6992679702945312019)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:6992679702945312019)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "meteofrance.com \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Banquise arctique : minimum d'extension le plus haut depuis 2014 by meteofrance.com", "actionTarget": "https://meteofrance.com/actualites-et-dossiers/actualites/banquise-arctique-minimum-dextension-le-plus-haut-depuis-2014" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Banquise arctique\u00a0: minimum d'extension le plus haut depuis 2014" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6847408935134081024,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le minimum d'extension de la banquise arctique, c'est maintenant. Ce minimum n'est pas un record, mais par contre c'est le cas pour l'\u00e9paisseur de cette derni\u00e8re : depuis le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1990, elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 divis\u00e9e par 2 en moyenne, passant de 2 m\u00e8tres \u00e0 1 m\u00e8tre en ordre de grandeur.\n\nPar del\u00e0 les fluctuations annuelles, la tendance est claire : surface et \u00e9paisseur vont continuer \u00e0 diminuer. Cette \u00e9volution pourrait laisser indiff\u00e9rent l'habitant(e) de Casablanca, Strasbourg ou Oulan-Bator. En fait, m\u00eame eux vont \u00eatre concern\u00e9s par l'\u00e9volution en cours. Pourquoi ?\n\nMoins de banquise, c'est une surface r\u00e9fl\u00e9chissante \u00e0 la lumi\u00e8re solaire (la glace) qui disparait, remplac\u00e9e par une surface absorbante (l'eau oc\u00e9anique). Du coup la temp\u00e9rature arctique augmente rapidement, du coup le Groenland fond plus vite, et du coup la mer monte partout dans le monde.\n\nAvec un Groenland fondu m\u00eame partiellement, il faut rajouter 3 m\u00e8tres d'eau dans l'oc\u00e9an mondial. Cela va supprimer un certain nombre de ports, et cela impactera la vie des habitant(e)s m\u00eame situ\u00e9s loin dans les terres.\n\nAvec le changement climatique, tout est interconnect\u00e9. 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Quantit\u00e9 de glace pluriannuelle la premi\u00e8re semaine d\u2019ao\u00fbt (30 juillet au 5 ao\u00fbt), depuis le d\u00e9but des mesures en 1979. \u00a9 Robbie Mallett." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:6992679702945312019)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:6992679702945312019)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "meteofrance.com \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Banquise arctique : minimum d'extension le plus haut depuis 2014 by meteofrance.com", "actionTarget": "https://meteofrance.com/actualites-et-dossiers/actualites/banquise-arctique-minimum-dextension-le-plus-haut-depuis-2014" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Banquise arctique\u00a0: minimum d'extension le plus haut depuis 2014" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6847408711309242368,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le minimum d'extension de la banquise arctique, c'est maintenant. Ce minimum n'est pas un record, mais par contre c'est le cas pour l'\u00e9paisseur de cette derni\u00e8re : depuis le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1990, elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 divis\u00e9e par 2 en moyenne, passant de 2 m\u00e8tres \u00e0 1 m\u00e8tre en ordre de grandeur. \n\nPar del\u00e0 les fluctuations annuelles, la tendance est claire : surface et \u00e9paisseur vont continuer \u00e0 diminuer. Cette \u00e9volution pourrait laisser indiff\u00e9rent l'habitant(e) de Casablanca, Strasbourg ou Oulan-Bator. En fait, m\u00eame eux vont \u00eatre concern\u00e9s par l'\u00e9volution en cours. Pourquoi ?\n\nMoins de banquise, c'est une surface r\u00e9fl\u00e9chissante \u00e0 la lumi\u00e8re solaire (la glace) qui disparait, remplac\u00e9e par une surface absorbante (l'eau oc\u00e9anique). 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6847070028177670144,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le nucl\u00e9aire de 4\u00e8 g\u00e9n\u00e9ration n'est pas consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un sujet majeur par notre gouvernement, mais ce n'est pas le cas partout dans le monde. A l'heure o\u00f9 notre pays d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e8re sur la question, 3 pays sont au contraire en phase d'acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration. \n\nLa Russie op\u00e8re de fa\u00e7on commerciale un surg\u00e9n\u00e9rateur uranium/plutonium (m\u00eame concept que Superph\u00e9nix, sauf que les russes n'ont pas arr\u00eat\u00e9 pour des raisons politiques : https://lnkd.in/dhMjBv-J ) et construit des prototypes d'autres dessins.\n\nLes USA (et le Canada) commencent \u00e0 avoir des programmes de recherche cons\u00e9quents dans ce domaine, souvent soutenus par des int\u00e9r\u00eats priv\u00e9s, comme par exemple Bill Gates (https://lnkd.in/dRxqyqup )\n\nEt surtout la Chine construit et teste des prototypes d'\u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s tout et n'importe quoi, pour voir ensuite ce qui, \u00e0 l'exp\u00e9rience, s'av\u00e8rera le plus int\u00e9ressant. \n\nDans cette veine, elle met en service un prototype (de 2 MW de puissance thermique, donc un petit mod\u00e8le) de r\u00e9acteur \u00e0 sels fondus fonctionnant sur le cycle thorium-uranium. Ce mod\u00e8le ne permettra pas d'\u00e9purer en continu les produits de fission du sel (c'est le \"point dur\" qui reste \u00e0 traiter dans les r\u00e9acteurs \u00e0 sels fondus), mais par contre il coche beaucoup de cases int\u00e9ressantes :\n- pas d'eau pour le refroidissement\n- fission des actinides mineurs (les \u00e9l\u00e9ments de num\u00e9ro atomique au-del\u00e0 de 88 qui apparaissent dans le r\u00e9acteur par capture de neutrons et font partie des d\u00e9chets dans les r\u00e9acteurs actuels),\n- polyvalence d'usage (\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, hydrog\u00e8ne, chaleur pour le r\u00e9seau, etc),\n- utilisation d'une ressource 400 fois plus abondante que l'uranium 235.\n\nAvec ses h\u00e9sitations li\u00e9es \u00e0 son client\u00e9lisme \u00e9lectoral (alors que, au fond, l'essentiel de la population si fiche un peu du sujet), l'avance que notre pays avait il y a 20 ans dans le nucl\u00e9aire a partiellement fondu comme neige au soleil. Plut\u00f4t que de capitaliser pour 10 ou 20 milliards sur un savoir-faire qui \u00e9tait alors de premier plan, nous avons pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9 d\u00e9penser 150 milliards pour importer des panneaux et des \u00e9oliennes pour essentiellement ne pas d\u00e9carboner une \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 qui l'\u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0.\n\nIl n'est probablement pas trop tard pour revenir dans la course et esp\u00e9rer faire partie des fournisseurs de ces r\u00e9acteurs du futurs, modulaires, \u00e0 la s\u00fbret\u00e9 augment\u00e9e, produisant moins de d\u00e9chets (sachant que les r\u00e9acteurs actuels en produisent tr\u00e8s peu en volume, d\u00e9j\u00e0), exportables, et surtout s'affranchissant du probl\u00e8me des ressources (il y a trop peu d'uranium 235 pour que le nucl\u00e9aire actuel soit \"durable\" s'il s'agit de remplacer pendant quelques si\u00e8cles une large partie des centrales \u00e0 charbon dans le monde). \n\nEncore faudrait-il que, dans le discours politique, se forme un consensus sur le fait que le nucl\u00e9aire est un \u00e9l\u00e9ment de solution, et non un gros probl\u00e8me. 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J'y faisais remarquer que les programmes avaient au fond assez peu chang\u00e9 depuis que je suis moi-m\u00eame pass\u00e9 sur les bancs de l'\u00e9cole, il y a fort fort longtemps : https://lnkd.in/db6hskQm\n\nLe danger \u00e0 ne pas inclure des sujets majeurs dans les programmes, c'est que la curiosit\u00e9 \u00e9tant une tendance naturelle des bip\u00e8des que nous sommes, nous irons alors chercher l'information ailleurs, en puisant dans des sources dont nous ne connaissons pas la fiabilit\u00e9 (\u00e0 commencer par les media, ce que j'ai oubli\u00e9 de dire \u00e0 l'antenne :) ).\n\nThe Shift Project a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 travailler depuis quelques ann\u00e9es sur la question. Pour celles et ceux qui veulent en savoir plus sur l'\u00e9tat des lieux et ce qu'il est possible de faire, c'est par l\u00e0 : https://lnkd.in/g2wSxGM\n\nLa question se pose aussi, bien s\u00fbr, pour les adultes dans le cadre de la formation continue, sujet non \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans la chronique (de 3 minutes !). Mais sur ce cr\u00e9neau l\u00e0, o\u00f9 l'initiative priv\u00e9e est la plus facile, on a vu appara\u00eetre ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es des offres qui correspondent \u00e0 ce besoin de comprendre le probl\u00e8me : la Fresque du Climat (https://lnkd.in/gRJyzZ8 ) ou MyCO2 (https://www.myco2.fr/ ) en sont des exemples." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6847063352796057600,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6847063354167578625,urn:li:activity:6847063354167578625,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 14, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6847063354167578625,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6846708340710506498,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La Chaire Scientific Beta de l'Edhec publie une \u00e9tude sur les indices dits ESG (environnement - social - gouvernance) qui sont cens\u00e9s \u00eatre constitu\u00e9s avec des \u00e9metteurs \"propres sur eux\" en ce qui concerne leur gestion environnementale et sociale, et les organes de gouvernance mis en place, qui garantissent au mieux contre le fait de faire n'importe quoi.\n\nLas, disent les chercheurs de la chaire qui ont examin\u00e9 ces indices, la plupart du temps ils sont construits en utilisant des m\u00e9thodes qui ne sont pas faites pour traiter le probl\u00e8me, mais juste pour se rassurer, en consid\u00e9rant que d\u00e9sormais sont \"vertes\" des mani\u00e8res de proc\u00e9der qui, \u00e0 quelques ajustements pr\u00e8s (on exclut ceci ou cela), sont les m\u00eames qu'hier.\n\nMaintenir l'\u00e9l\u00e9vation de temp\u00e9rature globale sous les 2\u00b0C suppose de diminuer les \u00e9missions de 5% par an \u00e0 partir de maintenant, et ce pour des d\u00e9cennies (chaque ann\u00e9e, il faut donc faire 5% de moins que l'ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, et ce jusqu'\u00e0 suppression totale des \u00e9missions). Une entreprise \"verte\" est donc une entreprise qui est capable de rester performante dans un monde qui baisse ses \u00e9missions de 5% par an, en ce compris la logistique dont elle a besoin, le comportement de ses clients, la survie de ses fournisseurs, etc.\n\nPour le moment, les m\u00e9thodes utilis\u00e9es par l'essentiel du monde financier pour appr\u00e9cier le \"vert\" ne permettent pas de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette question (et la taxonomie europ\u00e9enne ne permet pas non plus de r\u00e9pondre totalement \u00e0 la question). La publication de l'Edhec a raison de le rappeler, et de houspiller le secteur financier pour qu'il soit plus s\u00e9rieux, ce qui signifie y consacrer plus de moyens." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6846708340710506498,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6846708341234774016,urn:li:activity:6846708341234774016,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 37, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6846708341234774016,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6846708341234774016,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8870925835808454628)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theconversation.com \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Scientists still don\u2019t know how far melting in Antarctica will go \u2013 or the sea level rise it will unleash by theconversation.com", "actionTarget": "https://theconversation.com/scientists-still-dont-know-how-far-melting-in-antarctica-will-go-or-the-sea-level-rise-it-will-unleash-166677" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Scientists still don\u2019t know how far melting in Antarctica will go \u2013 or the sea level rise it will unleash" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6846706266530701312,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans les processus qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 mis en route par le r\u00e9chauffement climatique, il y a la fonte ou la d\u00e9sint\u00e9gration des calottes polaires, et l'inertie de ces composantes du syst\u00e8me climatique font que cette \u00e9volution est d\u00e9sormais partie pour des mill\u00e9naires m\u00eame si nous arr\u00eatons totalement les \u00e9missions.\n\nLa contribution des calottes polaires \u00e0 la hausse du niveau des mers est l'une des projections qui comporte le plus d'incertitudes, mais dans le mauvais sens. Le r\u00e9sum\u00e9 pour d\u00e9cideurs du dernier rapport du GIEC contient explicitement cette phrase : \"Sea level rise greater than 15m [in 2300]\u00a0cannot be ruled out with high emissions\".\n\n2300, ce n'est certes pas tout de suite. Mais 15 m\u00e8tres en 2 si\u00e8cles, soit 7 m\u00e8tres par si\u00e8cle, cela signifie qu'il n'y a plus un port op\u00e9rationnel sur terre (outre qu'un certain nombre de villes c\u00f4ti\u00e8res disparaissent). Et le doigt sur la g\u00e2chette est maintenant.\n\nIl faut le rappeler : une grande incertitude, ce n'est pas une incitation \u00e0 l'inaction avant de mieux savoir. C'est un grand risque, et une invitation \u00e0 s'occuper du probl\u00e8me d\u00e8s maintenant." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6846706266530701312,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6846706267000475648,urn:li:activity:6846706267000475648,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 25, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6846706267000475648,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6846706267000475648,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 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Cela est la cons\u00e9quence de l'inertie du CO2 dans l'air et de l'inertie de certains compartiments du climat.\n\nPour les entreprises cela signifie que, \u00e0 mesure que le temps va passer, elles vont devoir naviguer dans un monde de plus en plus instable sur le plan physique, avec des risques qui vont appara\u00eetre l\u00e0 o\u00f9 hier il n'y en avait pas, ou pas les m\u00eames.\n\nPour les aider \u00e0 y voir un peu clair, Carbone 4 publie, apr\u00e8s un an de travail soutenu notamment par l'Ademe, Bureau Veritas, HDI (un assureur industriel), la CCI Grand Est, une m\u00e9thode d'analyse d\u00e9nomm\u00e9e OCARA, qui permet d'identifier les processus \u00e0 risque en ce qui concerne le climat.\n\nPar rapport aux investigations classiques, qui se limitent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement aux actifs de l'entreprise (ses immeubles, machines, v\u00e9hicules, etc), OCARA couvre l'ensemble de la chaine de valeur, allant de la mine aux clients. \n\nUn exemple de probl\u00e8me \u00e0 l'amont de la chaine de valeur ? R\u00e9cemment, les constructeurs automobiles europ\u00e9ens ont eu un d\u00e9ficit de production parce qu'un producteur ta\u00efwanais de puces a du s'arr\u00eater de fonctionner \u00e0 cause d'une s\u00e9cheresse. \n\nUn exemple \u00e0 l'aval ? Avec moins de neige sur les pistes de ski, il se vend moins de skis, et moins de billets de train pour aller au ski...\n\nUn exemple \"\u00e0 l'aval c\u00f4t\u00e9 logistique\" ? En 2018 le Rhin a \u00e9t\u00e9 quasiment \u00e0 sec, emp\u00eachant l'\u00e9vacuation de la production des usines situ\u00e9es sur ses rives.\n\nIl est donc essentiel de regarder tous les processus, y compris ceux d\u00e9pendant des autres (eau, \u00e9lectricit\u00e9, \u00e9vacuation des d\u00e9chets, venue des salari\u00e9s, etc) qui permettent \u00e0 l'entreprise de fonctionner, pour savoir si ils sont aptes \u00e0 passer en l'\u00e9tat le test du changement climatique. Souvent la r\u00e9ponse sera non.\n\nOCARA est donc une m\u00e9thode d'approche par les processus, comme le bilan carbone. 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vert de l'atome sont un processus bien plus marqu\u00e9 en Europe qu'ailleurs dans le monde. De fait, dans l'Illinois, par exemple, 3 r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires viennent d'\u00eatre subventionn\u00e9s \u00e0 hauteur de 700 millions de dollars (https://lnkd.in/dY_ERiUn ) pour les rendre comp\u00e9titifs face au gaz, et ce avec le soutien de groupes environnementaux.\n\nIncidemment, l'auteur ne croit pas non plus \u00e0 une inclusion du gaz dans la taxonomie. Pour lui, ca serait la fin de cette derni\u00e8re, en lui \u00f4tant toute cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 scientifique. Cette m\u00eame cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9, qui demande de s'en tenir aux faits, devrait logiquement conduire \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer que, face au changement climatique, le nucl\u00e9aire \u00e9vite plus de risques qu'il n'en cr\u00e9e. \n\nMais la politique et les faits, ce n'est pas toujours un mariage sans heurts !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6845973674151948288,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6845973674680451073,urn:li:activity:6845973674680451073,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 77, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6845973674680451073,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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\u00e9quipement strat\u00e9gique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6845596303833997312,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique, ca doit \u00eatre r\u00e9silient, c'est \u00e0 dire comporter des \u00e9l\u00e9ments \u00e0 m\u00eame de permettre de faire face \u00e0 une large vari\u00e9t\u00e9 d'impr\u00e9vus. Et une partie de ces impr\u00e9vus n'en sont pas vraiment, au sens o\u00f9 il y a des ennuis qui se voient venir de loin, alors que d'autres non.\n\nLes anglais sont en train d'en faire l'exp\u00e9rience \u00e0 leurs d\u00e9pends. Cela fait des ann\u00e9es qu'ils sont structurellement importateurs d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (notamment de France), entre autres parce que la \"concurrence libre et non fauss\u00e9e\" ne permet pas de donner de la visibilit\u00e9 aux investissements de long terme, et qu'ils ont donc sous-investi dans les moyens de production. \n\nUne des liaisons avec le continent (pas de chance, c'est avec nous) vient d'\u00eatre mise hors service par un incendie, et ce \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 le vent est pour partie aux abonn\u00e9s absents. Sylvestre Huet en tire quelques conclusions qui s'appliquent aussi \u00e0 nous dans ce papier int\u00e9ressant. La principale est que les conjonctions d\u00e9favorables (pas de vent \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 compter sur ses voisins ne fonctionne pas, par exemple) ne sont pas impossibles, et vont m\u00eame probablement se multiplier dans un contexte o\u00f9 nous l\u00e2chons un peu trop facilement la proie pour l'ombre.\n\nNos amis anglais vont donc exp\u00e9rimenter grandeur nature une situation qui se \"voyait venir\" en construisant un syst\u00e8me d\u00e9pendant des voisins, d\u00e9pendant du gaz, et avec le postulat que \"il y a toujours du vent quelque part\". S'ensuivent des prix qui s'envolent, des fournisseurs \"alternatifs\" qui font faillite (mais sans cons\u00e9quence puisque physiquement ils ne servent \u00e0 rien, et c'en est une tr\u00e8s belle d\u00e9monstration !), des situations proches du d\u00e9lestage, et du charbon remis en route - les centrales sont encore op\u00e9rationnelles - en urgence. Comme l'\u00e9quipement qui a br\u00fbl\u00e9 est un \u00e9quipement lourd, pas facile \u00e0 remplacer, la situation acrobatique va durer un peu.\n\nApr\u00e8s tout, si l'\u00e9lecteur a conscience que supprimer du nucl\u00e9aire chez nous c'est prendre un risque \u00e9lev\u00e9 d'aller vers la m\u00eame chose (ou plus grave quand la d\u00e9pendance sera encore plus forte et le taux de p\u00e9n\u00e9tration des modes intermittents plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s), et accepte le risque, ce n'est pas grave : c'est le jeu de la d\u00e9mocratie. Mais il faut \u00eatre sur que c'est bien cela son choix, effectu\u00e9 en conscience !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6845596303833997312,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6845596304488308736,urn:li:activity:6845596304488308736,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 53, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6845596304488308736,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6845596304488308736,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7667643878372591929)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "hautconseilclimat.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Rapport Grand public 2021 \u2014 Haut Conseil pour le Climat by hautconseilclimat.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.hautconseilclimat.fr/publications/rapport-grand-public-2021" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Rapport Grand public 2021 \u2014 Haut Conseil pour le Climat" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6845307440301412353,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La version \"grand public\" du dernier rapport du Haut conseil pour le climat est disponible. Une version \"grand public\", c'est une version r\u00e9sum\u00e9e et illustr\u00e9e du rapport complet, reprenant les principales conclusions. Nous aurions donc tout aussi bien pu l'intituler \"r\u00e9sum\u00e9 pour d\u00e9cideurs\", puisque le processus de passage du rapport complet au rapport \"grand public\" est exactement le m\u00eame que le passage d'un gros document d\u00e9taill\u00e9 \u00e0 un r\u00e9sum\u00e9 ex\u00e9cutif, ou r\u00e9sum\u00e9 pour d\u00e9cideur.\n\nCe document se termine par 5 recommandations :\n\n- Clarifier des politiques publiques encore peu lisibles (c'est une mani\u00e8re polie de dire que la puissance publique se donne actuellement des objectifs contradictoires les uns avec les autres).\n\n- Dans la foul\u00e9e, finaliser sans attendre les \"documents strat\u00e9giques\" (ou encore les documents de cadrage tels que plans d'action des minist\u00e8res, SRADDET des collectivit\u00e9s locales, etc)\u00a0et les mettre en accord vers les objectifs nationaux.\n\n- Rendre les plans de relance \"bas-carbone compatibles\" (pour le moment cet aspect l\u00e0 n'est pas assez pris en compte avant la d\u00e9cision).\n\n- Am\u00e9liorer les processus d\u2019\u00e9valuation et de suivi des politiques publiques. Cette question de l'\u00e9valuation ex-post des politiques publiques pour les amender \u00e9ventuellement - voire les supprimer - en fonction des r\u00e9sultats n'est pas propre au climat : c'est un vieux d\u00e9bat dans notre pays, comme dans beaucoup d'autres d\u00e9mocraties, o\u00f9 le slogan facile tient un peu trop souvent lieu de preuve, et o\u00f9 le renoncement par la puissance publique \u00e0 une affirmation qui s'av\u00e8re infond\u00e9e rel\u00e8ve de l'exploit. \n\n- Int\u00e9grer syst\u00e9matiquement l\u2019adaptation au changement climatique dans les politiques aux \u00e9chelons national et territoriaux. De fait la d\u00e9rive climatique va s'intensifier, et il faut en tenir compte dans toutes nos d\u00e9cisions. \n\nCe que ne pr\u00e9conise pas ce rapport, mais qui est implicite, c'est de former tous les fonctionnaires et tous les \u00e9lus \u00e0 la compr\u00e9hension des enjeux. Car sans cela, nous mettons toutes les chances de notre c\u00f4t\u00e9 pour constater que l'enfer est (parfois) pav\u00e9 de bonnes intentions.\n\nC'est du reste bien pour cela que la premi\u00e8re recommandation du travail que The Shift Project vient r\u00e9cemment de publier sur la r\u00e9silience des territoires (https://lnkd.in/dfWN5cBP ) est de consacrer 1% du budget des collectivit\u00e9s locales \u00e0 de \"l'acquisition de connaissances\" sur la question \u00e9nergie - climat. Cette recommandation recouvre une bonne compr\u00e9hension de la situation actuelle, des risques futurs et de leur hi\u00e9rarchie, ainsi que du jus de cerveau sur les alternatives possibles pour l'avenir. Ne pas le faire avant de foncer t\u00eate baiss\u00e9e sur le slogan \u00e0 la mode garantit de rater la cible \u00e0 coup \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s s\u00fbr." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6845307440301412353,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6845307441056387072,urn:li:activity:6845307441056387072,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 33, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6845307441056387072,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6845307441056387072,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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C'est celui des organisateurs du fonctionnement des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s humaines, c'est \u00e0 dire l'ensemble du monde politique, de la technostructure et des dirigeants \u00e9conomiques et spirituels. \n\nDans cet ensemble, The Shift Project essaie de jouer modestement sa part en travaillant depuis un an sur un \"plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\", qui vise \u00e0 proposer des mesures qui seraient en phase avec une baisse des \u00e9missions de 5% par an dans le monde, ce qui est n\u00e9cessaire pour \"tenir\" l'objectif des 2\u00b0C (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ).\n\nEt au sein de ce plan il y a un volet... pour le secteur de la sant\u00e9, qui devra lui aussi tirer les cons\u00e9quences de ce que cela signifie baisser son empreinte carbone. 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Il est interview\u00e9 par Jean-Marc Jancovici lors d'un facebook..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Jancovici - Dion : Les enseignements de la CCC : quelles cl\u00e9s pour l'action ? - 13/09/2021" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6844326515665072128,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Lundi dernier, Cyril Dion a accept\u00e9 de se faire \"interviewer\" par votre serviteur pour partager son retour d'exp\u00e9rience sur la Convention Citoyenne pour le Climat. \n\nIl 'en est ensuivi une heure d'\u00e9changes (c'est surtout lui qui parle, mais c'\u00e9tait bien le but !) sur la gen\u00e8se du projet, pourquoi Macron a accept\u00e9, quelle valeur ajout\u00e9e ce processus a amen\u00e9 dans le paysage, s'il y a eu des exp\u00e9riences comparables ailleurs, et ce que l'on peut en tirer comme conclusions du processus (plus que du contenu 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6844169124910780416,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La taxonomie europ\u00e9enne sur les investissements \"verts\" vise \u00e0 fournir au monde financier une nomenclature des projets ou activit\u00e9s qui sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme compatibles avec un monde qui se d\u00e9carbone.\n\nPour \u00eatre \"vert\", il faut donc \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme apportant une contribution substantielle \u00e0 l'am\u00e9lioration de la situation sur le front du climat, tout en contribuant pas \u00e0 la d\u00e9grader sur un autre plan. L'interpr\u00e9tation de ce principe a bien \u00e9videmment donn\u00e9 lieu \u00e0 d'\u00e2pres d\u00e9bats.\n\nMais elle comporte \u00e9galement un volet \"adaptation\", qui pr\u00e9cise \u00e0 quelles conditions une activit\u00e9 est consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme \u00e9tant du bon c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la barri\u00e8re en ce qui concerne sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 un climat \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive, ou \u00e0 contribuer \u00e0 la pr\u00e9paration des autres.\n\nCet article de Carbone 4 vous en r\u00e9sume la substantifique moelle !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6844169124910780416,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6844169125426675712,urn:li:activity:6844169125426675712,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 13, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"text": "R\u00e9silience des territoires : publication d'un manuel pour b\u00e2tir des politiques locales" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6843925975550455808,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le monde dans lequel nous vivons doit beaucoup \u00e0 deux d\u00e9terminants : un climat qui \u00e9tait stable depuis 10.000 ans, et une \u00e9nergie - donc un parc de machines - abondante. Quand on regarde bien, la structure des m\u00e9tiers, le prix de l'alimentation, l'occupation du territoire, la mondialisation, et encore quelques broutilles sont les descendants directs de ces deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments.\n\nL'un comme l'autre, et d'autres ressources plan\u00e9taires en prime, vont malheureusement faire de plus en plus d\u00e9faut \u00e0 l'avenir. Cela va poser des d\u00e9fis in\u00e9dits \u00e0 toutes les structures que nous avons imagin\u00e9es pour g\u00e9rer la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 humaine, et notamment les collectivit\u00e9s locales. \n\nQuelles seront les ressources agricoles disponibles pour nourrir la population locale dans un monde au climat d\u00e9rivant ? Comment les transporter sans p\u00e9trole ? Quels m\u00e9tiers feront les habitants, quels emplois seront disponibles ? 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L'essentiel des r\u00e9sultats porte sur l'espace occup\u00e9 par les installations de production. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7672840547284146905)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Nord Stream 2 : le nouveau gazoduc russe qui fournira l'Europe enfin achev\u00e9 by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/nord-stream-2-le-nouveau-gazoduc-russe-qui-fournira-leurope-enfin-acheve-1345123" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Nord Stream 2\u00a0: le nouveau gazoduc russe qui fournira l'Europe enfin achev\u00e9" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6843120175236046848,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Avec Nord Stream II, l'Europe a doubl\u00e9 sa perfusion gazi\u00e8re russe traversant la mer Baltique.\n\nComme cet article ne mentionne ni le mot CO2, ni le mot climat, je vais le compl\u00e9ter par un petit calcul. La capacit\u00e9 conjointe de Nord Stream I et II est de 110 milliards de m3 de gaz par an. Le gaz est une \u00e9nergie fossile qui \u00e9met 230 grammes de CO2 par kWh brul\u00e9. Il y a 10 kWh par m3.\n\n110 milliards de m3 par an, cela fait donc, en ordre de grandeur, 250 millions de tonnes de CO2 par an. C'est plus de la moiti\u00e9 des \u00e9missions domestiques de la France.\n\nUn gazoduc est fait pour durer des d\u00e9cennies (au moins 50 ans pour les infrastructures enterr\u00e9es selon GRT Gaz : https://lnkd.in/dckinYJ8 ).\n\nOr, l'Europe doit \u00eatre neutre en CO2 - donc ne quasiment plus rien \u00e9mettre, vu ce qu'il va advenir des for\u00eats et de leur capacit\u00e9 de s\u00e9questration additionnelle - d'ici 2050, donc dans 30 ans. La simple existence de ce gazoduc est donc une garantie que nous n'en prenons pas le chemin.\n\nQuestion : l'Europe - donc l'Allemagne :) - va coller une prune \u00e0 l'Allemagne pour violation d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9e de l'engagement de neutralit\u00e9 carbone europ\u00e9en ? (je pourrais poser la m\u00eame question pour la fermeture de Fessenheim, ce propos n'est pas anti-allemand par principe). En tous cas, il se confirme que l'Allemagne des ENR est aussi, en pratique, l'Allemagne du gaz.\n\nLe fait que les d\u00e9cisions op\u00e9rationnelles sur le continent soient en pratique presque toutes antagonistes avec les d\u00e9clarations serait cocasse si ce n'\u00e9tait tragique. Peut-on essayer d'\u00eatre coh\u00e9rents ne serait-ce qu'une fois ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6843120175236046848,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6843120175949062144,urn:li:activity:6843120175949062144,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 111, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6843120175949062144,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6843120175949062144,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "3 banques ayant pris un engagement de neutralit\u00e9 (\"net zero pledge\"), \u00e0 savoir Citi, Bank of America (BofA) et Commerzbank, ont r\u00e9cemment organis\u00e9 une \u00e9mission obligataire du plus gros producteur de charbon russe, et un des plus gros exportateurs mondiaux, rapporte le site Responsible Investor.\n\nNB : l'article est r\u00e9serv\u00e9 aux abonn\u00e9s mais l'information principale est contenue dans la partie en libre acc\u00e8s.\n\nJ'avais publi\u00e9 sur le m\u00eame site, il y a un an et demi, une tribune - https://lnkd.in/gdEjKji - expliquant que la facilit\u00e9 avec laquelle tout acteur financier d\u00e9clare d\u00e9sormais qu'un jour il sera \"propre\" signifiait pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment que de s'engager pour \"beaucoup plus tard\" ne mangeait pas de pain, et n'avaient pas plus de signification que cela.\n\nJ'avais sugg\u00e9r\u00e9 que l'acceptation, par les organismes receuillant ces engagements (notamment les \"Principles for Responsible Investing\" des Nations Unies) conditionnent ledit engagement \u00e0 deux actions imm\u00e9diates : \n- l'obligation pour chaque cadre - puis chaque collaborateur - de suivre 20 heures de cours pour comprendre comment se d\u00e9crit le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter (au hasard quelque chose pas tr\u00e8s \u00e9loign\u00e9 de https://lnkd.in/dM7u2j7 ), dans les 2 ans qui suivent (avec les cours en ligne on peut le faire)\n- le d\u00e9ploiement d\u00e9marrant imm\u00e9diatement d'une comptabilit\u00e9 carbone d\u00e9taill\u00e9e - avec un plan comptable appropri\u00e9, donc ne faisant pas l'impasse sur le \"scope 3\" (https://lnkd.in/djQW4YAk) permettant de donner une contrepartie carbone \u00e0 chaque op\u00e9ration unitaire effectu\u00e9e par l'\u00e9tablissement financier en question.\n\nCes actions l\u00e0 peuvent d\u00e9marrer imm\u00e9diatement, sont v\u00e9rifiables, et sont n\u00e9cessaires (mais pas suffisantes) d\u00e8s lors qu'une entreprise entend faire le service minimum pour prendre sa part \u00e0 la r\u00e9solution du probl\u00e8me. \n\nSi ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de n'est toujours pas en vigueur, n'est-ce pas la preuve que les organismes qui recueillent les engagements s'accommodent tr\u00e8s bien de promesses d'ivrogne ? 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7557744450204342994)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "rtbf.be \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: La plus grande usine au monde qui \u00e9limine le C02 de l'air lanc\u00e9e en Islande by rtbf.be", "actionTarget": "https://www.rtbf.be/info/insolites/detail_la-plus-grande-usine-au-monde-qui-elimine-le-c02-de-l-air-lancee-en-islande?id=10838498&" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La plus grande usine au monde qui \u00e9limine le C02 de l'air lanc\u00e9e en Islande" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6842451997413658624,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les islandais ont plant\u00e9 un arbre, \u00e0 savoir \"quelque chose\" qui retire du CO2 de l'air. Sauf que ce dernier n'a ni branches ni feuilles, mais de gros ventilateurs, des pompes et des tuyaux, et ne fonctionne pas \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie solaire, comme un arbre, mais \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9.\n\nL'article parle de 4000 tonnes de CO2 captur\u00e9es par an. 4000 tonnes, c'est \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s ce que consomment 400 hectares d'arbres, soit 4 km2 de for\u00eat en croissance. Dit autrement, c'est pas b\u00e9zef.\n\nL'article parle de l'\u00e9quivalent des \u00e9missions de 870 (allez, 1000) voitures par an. Ca fait donc un millioni\u00e8me des \u00e9missions des voitures, lesquelles repr\u00e9sentent un quinzi\u00e8me des \u00e9missions globales. Il faudrait donc 15 millions d'usines comme celle d\u00e9crite pour pomper l'\u00e9quivalent de nos \u00e9missions.\n\nL'article ne donne pas la consommation d'\u00e9nergie de ce dispositif. Mais elle est n\u00e9cessairement \u00e9lev\u00e9e, pour une raison tr\u00e8s simple : le CO2 atmosph\u00e9rique est une mol\u00e9cule chimiquement inerte dilu\u00e9e \u00e0 0,04% dans l'air. Dans ces conditions, la d\u00e9pense \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique pour le r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer est fatalement tr\u00e8s importante. Il n'est pas exclu que si le dispositif fonctionne avec de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 carbon\u00e9e (ce qui n'est pas le cas en Islande), les \u00e9missions de CO2 li\u00e9es \u00e0 son fonctionnement soient \u00e9quivalentes au CO2 retir\u00e9 de l'atmosph\u00e8re.\n\nLa seule mani\u00e8re de capter du CO2 qui soit \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiquement \"rentable\" est de le faire \u00e0 la sortie des centrales \u00e9lectriques et grosses usines (cimenteries), et m\u00eame l\u00e0, alors que le CO2 est tr\u00e8s concentr\u00e9 dans la fum\u00e9e, il faut utiliser pour cela de 15 \u00e0 30% de l'\u00e9nergie de l'usine concern\u00e9e. Donc une fois que ce CO2 est dilu\u00e9e \u00e0 0,04% au-dessus de nos t\u00eates, le rendement doit \u00eatre bien pire, et possiblement \"n\u00e9gatif\". \n\nCa n'emp\u00eachera peut-\u00eatre pas la presse ou le politique de soutenir l'id\u00e9e avec le fol espoir - h\u00e9las infond\u00e9 - que ca nous \u00e9vitera des ennuis. Il vaut mieux se mettre au v\u00e9lo et planter des arbres l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il faut !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6842451997413658624,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6842451997992468480,urn:li:activity:6842451997992468480,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 374, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6842451997992468480,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6842451997992468480,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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attendu(e)s, et la pr\u00e9sentation de l'int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 du Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise, qui mobilise des centaines de personnes depuis un an (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ) : l'Universit\u00e9 d'\u00e9t\u00e9 des Shifters, la premi\u00e8re du nom, se tiendra \u00e0 Lyon dans 15 jours. \n\nChez nous, ca ne sera pas \"\u00e0 propos, que proposez vous sur le climat\" dans une universit\u00e9 d'\u00e9t\u00e9 o\u00f9 le th\u00e8me central est autre, mais \"\u00e0 propos, que proposez vous sur la construction, la sant\u00e9 ou l'emploi\" dans une universit\u00e9 d'\u00e9t\u00e9 o\u00f9 le th\u00e8me central est le climat (et plus largement les limites plan\u00e9taires).\n\nA bient\u00f4t pour celles et ceux qui y viendront !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6842389571548811265,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Vous n'avez pas pris de pincettes, et surtout vous avez insist\u00e9 sur le lien entre votre expos\u00e9 et les mati\u00e8res qu'on nous apprend en \u00e9cole de commerce (\"n'allez pas dans le conseil ou en finance\", \"comment faire un business plan dans un monde en contraction\", \"prenez du recul face \u00e0 vos cours d'\u00e9conomie\" etc...).\"\n\nIl n'est pas sur que tout le monde trouvera le discours agr\u00e9able. 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Cet \u00e9tonnant paradoxe doit \u00e0 l'affaiblissement du vortex polaire dans le cadre du r\u00e9chauffement climatique, parce que la diff\u00e9rence de temp\u00e9rature moyenne entre p\u00f4le et moyennes latitudes a tendance \u00e0 diminuer.\n\nCet affaiblissement du vortex polaire favorise alors les excursions d'air froid aux moyennes latitudes (et corr\u00e9lativement une excursion d'air chaud au p\u00f4le, allant avec des records de chaleur qui s'y multiplient).\n\nUn article publi\u00e9 dans Science documente ce processus, et insiste sur le fait que le r\u00e9chauffement climatique ne va pas supprimer les vagues de grand froid. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7122534393795769629)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "jancovici.com \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L'\u00e9conomie peut-elle d\u00e9cro\u00eetre ? by jancovici.com", "actionTarget": "https://jancovici.com/transition-energetique/choix-de-societe/leconomie-peut-elle-decroitre/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'\u00e9conomie peut-elle d\u00e9cro\u00eetre ?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6841994114968379393,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 802, "length": 21, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Christian", "lastName": "Mumenthaler", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAC5fzgYBMX2K0cGl_hK1_s_rwMm27TnBw-A", "occupation": 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https://lnkd.in/dtvZY6wY.\n\nAvantage : cela permet d'\u00e9voquer le sujet puisque c'est dans un journal \u00e9conomique, et que les \"d\u00e9cideurs \u00e9conomiques\" sont en fait les gestionnaires du syst\u00e8me physique d'extraction et de transformation des ressources naturelles que l'on appelle \"\u00e9conomie\" (https://lnkd.in/gPsGK-F ).\n\nMais cette interview illustre un dilemme qui n'est pas compl\u00e8tement anecdotique : vaut-il mieux ne pas parler d'un sujet, ou en parler d'une mani\u00e8re qui va engendrer des conclusions contre-productives pour l'action ?\n\nCar cette interview v\u00e9hicule plusieurs id\u00e9es qui nous poussent dans la mauvaise direction :\n\n- Christian Mumenthaler indique que son groupe vise la neutralit\u00e9 carbone, or cet objectif n'est en fait pas pertinent (https://lnkd.in/dGTt6Zs )\n\n- par construction m\u00eame, il r\u00e9duit les dommages possibles du changement climatique \u00e0 leur dimension \u00e9conomique. Or les activit\u00e9s humaines d\u00e9pendent d'actifs naturels qui sont tous gratuits par convention. D\u00e8s lors, la destruction de ces actifs - non assur\u00e9s puisque gratuits - est \u00e0 la fois \u00e9conomiquement invisible \u00e0 court terme mais potentiellement tr\u00e8s impactante pour l'avenir. \n\n- \u00e0 cause de l'inertie du processus, quand les dommages \u00e9conomiques - parce que physiques - de l'\u00e9volution en cours deviendront suffisamment douloureux pour nous pousser \u00e0 l'action, la seule garantie que nous aurons alors est que ca sera encore pire derri\u00e8re. Donc il ne faut pas en arriver l\u00e0 ! C'est une autre mani\u00e8re de dire que les dommages \u00e9conomiques ne sont pas un signal faible permettant de corriger le tir \u00e0 l'avance\n\n- enfin l'interview\u00e9 semble tr\u00e8s confiant dans la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 faire de la croissance verte (il parle des formidables investissements pour retirer le CO2 de l'atmosph\u00e8re). Mais rien n'est moins sur que d'y arriver : https://lnkd.in/dDCe4YAm\n\nEsp\u00e9rons que les lecteurs sauront faire la part des choses dans la lecture des propos tenus !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6841994114968379393,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6841994115534594049,urn:li:activity:6841994115534594049,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 23, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6841994115534594049,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6841994115534594049,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les Echos reviennent sur l'empreinte environnementale du num\u00e9rique, dans cet article qui pose le probl\u00e8me et se garde bien (et tant mieux) de le conclure en expliquant que nos craintes sont infond\u00e9es parce que le num\u00e9rique va d\u00e9carboner tout le reste de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 (ce qui n'a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas depuis l'apparition du premier ordinateur, juste apr\u00e8s-guerre).\n\nL'article rappelle que, pour une fois, c'est le S\u00e9nat (traditionnellement conservateur) qui a voulu l\u00e9gif\u00e9rer, avec une loi initi\u00e9e par la droite qui comportait quelques mesures audacieuses (comme l'autorisation conditionnelle d'exploiter les fr\u00e9quences pour les op\u00e9rateurs en fonction de l'\u00e9volution de leur empreinte carbone), et que c'est l'Assembl\u00e9e (moins conservatrice, surtout si on consid\u00e8re que LREM incorpore de nombreux ex-PS) qui a rogn\u00e9 les mesures propos\u00e9es par les 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Le monde \u00e0 l'envers, quoi..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6841730304823107584,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6841730305318014977,urn:li:activity:6841730305318014977,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 24, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6841730305318014977,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6841730305318014977,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6841730305318014977", "threadId": 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Depuis plus d'un mois, le prix de gros de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 sur les march\u00e9s spot des pays europ\u00e9ens d\u00e9passe all\u00e8grement les 100 euros le MWh (graphique issu de https://lnkd.in/dfxe6pfH)\n\nQuestion : si vous devez investir \u00e0 vos risques et p\u00e9rils dans un moyen de production \u00e9lectrique qui dure quelques d\u00e9cennies, et qu'en l'espace de 6 mois les prix spot peuvent passer du n\u00e9gatif \u00e0 200 euros le MWh, vous prenez quel pari ?\n\nComme personne n'a de r\u00e9ponse qui soit plus confortable qu'une autre, la r\u00e9ponse est qu'en pareil cas vous serez le plus souvent attentiste... et donc ne ferez rien ou pas grand chose.\n\nCe n'est pas juste par sainte horreur du lib\u00e9ralisme que les prix de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 historiquement r\u00e9gul\u00e9s. C'est juste le seul moyen de donner un cadre pour que les investissements se fassent, et du reste c'est tout l'esprit du syst\u00e8me de prix garantis dans les ENR et dans le nucl\u00e9aire (Grande Bretagne) pour les nouveaux investissements (incidemment la Commission vient d'autoriser la France \u00e0 injecter 5,7 milliards pour installer 3,7 GW de photovolta\u00efque sous forme de petites installations, ce qui, en tenant compte des diff\u00e9rences de facteur de charge et de dur\u00e9e de vie, met \"l'\u00e9quivalent EPR\" \u00e0 25 milliards : https://lnkd.in/d9_xzqKB). \n\nEn mettant le plus de march\u00e9 possible dans le syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique, l'Europe a juste raccourci les horizons de temps, mis de la complexit\u00e9 dans le syst\u00e8me (qui fait monter les prix puisqu'il faut la payer !), transf\u00e9r\u00e9 la rente du public vers le priv\u00e9, et bloqu\u00e9 les investissements non subventionn\u00e9s. \n\nCe qui est le plus \u00e9tonnant dans l'histoire, c'est notre incapacit\u00e9 collective \u00e0 accepter que quand on a fait un essai qui ne marche pas, il faut arr\u00eater de pers\u00e9v\u00e9rer. Sinon, on passe de l'exp\u00e9rience \u00e9ventuellement utile pour apprendre \u00e0 l'id\u00e9ologie d\u00e9connect\u00e9e des faits." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6841726432746446848,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6841726433421754368,urn:li:activity:6841726433421754368,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 75, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6841726433421754368,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6841726433421754368,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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plusieurs milliers (plus de 10.000 d\u00e9sormais) \u00e9metteurs d'actions et obligations en ce qui concerne l'enjeu climatique. 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Voici une int\u00e9ressante question pos\u00e9e par Stephane Foucart dans cet article du Monde. La raison avanc\u00e9e par l'auteur n'est \u00e9videmment pas la qualit\u00e9 du constat scientifique r\u00e9sum\u00e9 (si l'on peut dire : 4000 pages !) par cet organisme. Non, son interrogation est la suivante : d\u00e8s lors que le GIEC produit un rapport toutes les N ann\u00e9es (N compris entre 4 et 7), alors il y a une raison permanente de ne rien faire, qui est d'attendre le rapport d'apr\u00e8s, en (se) disant qu'il pr\u00e9cisera un peu mieux les choses, donc permettra de cibler un peu mieux l'action.\n\nUn article publi\u00e9 il y a des ann\u00e9es dans la presse am\u00e9ricaine avait tourn\u00e9 autour de la m\u00eame question, en titrant, \u00e0 propos du constat scientifique \"how much is too much?\". On peut faire le parall\u00e8le avec les examens m\u00e9dicaux et les traitements : tant que l'on est dans le processus de regarder notre carcasse un peu en d\u00e9tail, il est tentant de ne pas donner de traitement dans l'attente de savoir quelle est exactement la nature de la maladie.\n\nEvidemment, la question \"sym\u00e9trique\" est de savoir si cela d\u00e9clencherait plus l'action que le GIEC dise (ou ait dit) \"voil\u00e0, nous vous avons dit tout ce que nous avions \u00e0 vous dire, ce que vous pouvez constater avec le fait que le 6\u00e8 rapport d'\u00e9valuation ne dit pas des choses tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rentes du 1er, sauf qu'une partie de ce qui devait arriver en cas de poursuite des \u00e9missions arrive effectivement, et maintenant on pose le stylo, car l'humanit\u00e9 en sait bien assez pour se demander ce qu'elle fait face au probl\u00e8me\".\n\nFoucart se demande en conclusion si le monde politique n'a pas, en fait, utilis\u00e9 la science comme pr\u00e9texte \u00e0 l'inaction (au corps d\u00e9fendant des scientifiques \u00e9videmment) : il suffisait de pr\u00e9senter comme une action de laisser les scientifiques travailler.\n\nSt\u00e9phane a raison de poser la question, parce que cette tentation d'attendre d'en savoir toujours plus et de ne rien faire de s\u00e9rieux en attendant est r\u00e9elle. Mais une des solutions se trouve dans sa propre profession : elle aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 que, d\u00e8s les premi\u00e8res alertes, la presse sache expliquer correctement le probl\u00e8me, ses composantes techniques, ses implications, et les arbitrages qu'il demande de trancher, notamment entre \u00e9conomie et environnement. Cela aurait demand\u00e9 une capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 traiter des probl\u00e8mes transversaux avec une forte composante technique que, en pratique, elle n'a malheureusement que tr\u00e8s peu." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6841633221290029056,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6841633222024040448,urn:li:activity:6841633222024040448,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 70, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6841633222024040448,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6841633222024040448,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8557921754485551108)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "drivechange.applegreen.com \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Home | Applegreen Carbon Reduction by drivechange.applegreen.com", "actionTarget": "https://drivechange.applegreen.com/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Home | Applegreen Carbon Reduction" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6841015575913734144,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Vous avez mauvaise conscience en conduisant une voiture \u00e0 p\u00e9trole ? Un distributeur irlandais de carburant a trouv\u00e9 la solution : l'essence neutre. Le principe est le suivant : pour chaque tonne de carbone \u00e9mise par l'usage (donc la combustion) du carburant vendu, ils plantent un arbre (en prenant soin de pr\u00e9ciser qu'il y aura ch\u00eanes, bouleaux, noisetiers...).\n\nDu coup, fin du cas de conscience : plus vous conduisez, plus vous \u00eates \u00e9colos ! C'est pas beau la vie :) ?\n\nBien \u00e9videmment, il s'agit d'un trompe l'oeil :\n- les \u00e9missions du carburant sont imm\u00e9diates. L'arbre plant\u00e9 captera du CO2 \"plus tard\" (or le d\u00e9calage temporel est un probl\u00e8me), \u00e0 condition qu'il ne meure pas de sec, de chaud, de parasites, ou qu'il ne soit pas coup\u00e9 parce que la population sera en stress \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique (rappelons que le charbon a sauv\u00e9 ce qu'il restait des for\u00eats fran\u00e7aises apr\u00e8s le milieu du 19\u00e8 si\u00e8cle, d\u00e9forest\u00e9es \u00e0 vitesse acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9es par les forges et le chauffage),\n- planter des arbres ne garantit pas la disponibilit\u00e9 future du p\u00e9trole. Or ce dernier va progressivement \u00eatre moins facile \u00e0 importer en Europe (https://lnkd.in/dwPcgve )\n- planter des arbres ne garantit pas non la taille du march\u00e9. Si, dans sa grande sagesse, le gouvernement irlandais d\u00e9cide de fortement r\u00e9duire la consommation de p\u00e9trole des voitures (diminution de leur nombre, de leur consommation unitaire, \u00e9lectrification...), cela \"attaquera\" le march\u00e9 du pompiste, et planter des arbres n'est pas \u00e9quivalent \u00e0 un changement de business model (comme par exemple d\u00e9marrer une activit\u00e9 de vente et entretien de v\u00e9los \u00e9lectriques).\n\nPlanter des arbres est essentiel. Mais ca n'est pas une activit\u00e9 qui doit \u00eatre lib\u00e9ratoire pour l'action sur les \u00e9missions. 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"text": "Minist\u00e8re de la transition (\u00e9oliennes) contre minist\u00e8re de la transition (biodiversit\u00e9), qui gagne ? \n\nLe Conseil national de la protection de la nature a rendu au d\u00e9but de l'\u00e9t\u00e9 une \u00e9tude, faisant suite \u00e0 une autosaisine (donc ce n'est pas un geste politique d'avoir demand\u00e9 quelque chose \u00e0 cette instance), qui indique que le d\u00e9veloppement envisag\u00e9 de l'\u00e9olien offshore ne peut pas se faire dans le respect de la protection de l'avifaune marine. \n\nAu d\u00e9but du d\u00e9ploiement de l'\u00e9olien, nos sens ne nous ont pas dit que nous allions avoir un petit sujet d'espace disponible. Les caract\u00e9ristiques objectives d'UNE \u00e9olienne n'en font effectivement pas une nuisance majeure, et il n'y avait pas beaucoup d'\u00e9oliennes install\u00e9es, donc on pouvait constater \"avec nos sens\" que la nuisance globale \u00e9tait faible, alors que son d\u00e9ploiement \u00e9tait associ\u00e9 \u00e0 un discours d'espoir.\n\nNotre esprit aurait pu nous le dire, par contre. Il suffit de faire une r\u00e8gle de trois pour voir combien de machines on doit installer si on va jusqu'au bout de la logique, et du coup quelle surface se retrouve \"pas loin d'une \u00e9olienne, avec les inconv\u00e9nients associ\u00e9s qui ne sont plus du m\u00eame ordre de grandeur. \n\nC'est au fond ce calcul l\u00e0 que le Conseil national de la protection de la nature vient de faire, et le r\u00e9sultat ne lui semble pas compatible avec le respect de la biodiversit\u00e9.\n\nCette profusion d'\u00e9oliennes si on veut en tirer quelque chose de significatif tient au caract\u00e8re diffus de l'air en mouvement : il faut alors beaucoup de collecteurs pour r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer cette \u00e9nergie. Et donc si nous essayons d'aller aux niveaux requis pour que cela commence \u00e0 repr\u00e9senter l'\u00e9quivalent du p\u00e9trole, ca va occuper beaucoup - \u00e9norm\u00e9ment - d'espace, \u00eatre pr\u00e9sent en beaucoup - \u00e9norm\u00e9ment - d'endroits, et demander beaucoup de mat\u00e9riaux. C'est h\u00e9las juste \"physique\". M\u00eame dans un monde sobre en \u00e9nergie, miser avant tout sur des sources denses et d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es - donc les nucl\u00e9aires - n'est pas n\u00e9cessairement le choix le plus idiot qui soit, notamment pour la biodiversit\u00e9." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6840891755680817152,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6840891756905545728,urn:li:activity:6840891756905545728,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 49, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6840891756905545728,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6840891756905545728,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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le cong\u00e9lateur, \"en moyenne\" je suis bien. Cette plaisanterie connue sur le fait qu'une moyenne ne dit pas tout pourrait s'appliquer, en version am\u00e8re, aux Etats Unis actuellement. En effet, pendant que le Sud et l'Est du pays viennent de se faire saucer d'abondance par l'ouragan Ida, avec des inondations exceptionnelles \u00e0 la cl\u00e9, l'Ouest est toujours aux prises avec une s\u00e9cheresse historique, comme en t\u00e9moigne la carte \u00e9tablie par https://lnkd.in/dQVN83A\n\nPour la d\u00e9rive climatique qui nous attend, la moyenne ne va pas non plus dire tout. Une temp\u00e9rature qui se r\u00e9chauffe de 2\u00b0C \"en moyenne\", ce n'est pas pareil si cette hausse est bien r\u00e9partie sur l'ensemble du globe, et l'ensemble de l'ann\u00e9e, ou si elle signifie une temp\u00e9rature inchang\u00e9e 90% du temps, et des valeurs qui augmentent de 20 \u00b0C 10% du temps.\n\nDu reste, la terminologie \"ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes extr\u00eames\" est bien adapt\u00e9e \u00e0 ce qu'elle d\u00e9signe : des extr\u00eames par rapport aux valeurs moyennes. Ce qui va compter, dans l'\u00e9volution future, est donc avant tout l'\u00e9volution des extr\u00eames, qui ont le potentiel de rendre, en peu de temps, la \"vie d'apr\u00e8s\" tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rente de la \"vie d'avant\". \n\nIl suffit en effet de quelques mois avec des conditions extraordinairement chaudes et s\u00e8ches pour d\u00e9truire une v\u00e9g\u00e9tation qui mettra au mieux des d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 se reconstituer, et m\u00eame de quelques heures dans un ouragan pour que des infrastructures disparaissent pour des ann\u00e9es ou des d\u00e9cennies.\n\nManque de chance pour nous, les outils \u00e0 la disposition des scientifiques pour appr\u00e9cier l'avenir sont moins pr\u00e9cis pour ce qui concerne les extr\u00eames que ce qui concerne les moyennes. Pour ces derni\u00e8res, elles d\u00e9coulent assez directement de la quantit\u00e9 suppl\u00e9mentaire d'\u00e9nergie embarqu\u00e9e dans le syst\u00e8me - elle-m\u00eame d\u00e9termin\u00e9e par le suppl\u00e9ment d'effet de serre, qui est assez homog\u00e8ne par nature, et facile \u00e0 calculer.\n\nMais pour les extr\u00eames, il faut appr\u00e9cier l'\u00e9volution de la variabilit\u00e9, et l\u00e0 c'est une autre paire de manches. Ce sont des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes localis\u00e9s, (tr\u00e8s) courts au regard de la tendance de fond, et d\u00e9pendant souvent d'une conjonction de facteurs. C'est pour cela que, pour les extr\u00eames, les surprises sont bien plus probables que pour les moyennes, parce que la difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir est bien plus grande.\n\nEt chacun(e) d'entre nous sait que les surprises peuvent \u00eatre bonnes, mais aussi mauvaises. L'incertitude, ce n'est pas une police d'assurance." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6840534590117961728,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6840534590956818432,urn:li:activity:6840534590956818432,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 47, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6840534590956818432,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6840534590956818432,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Depuis 1988 pour ceux qui voient la date de cr\u00e9ation du GIEC comme le point de d\u00e9part de cette pr\u00e9occupation, probablement depuis avant dans une petite partie de la communaut\u00e9 scientifique, et \u00e0 de nombreuses reprises depuis apr\u00e8s, assur\u00e9ment.\n\nMais quand on regarde la courbe de consommation de produits p\u00e9troliers dans les pays de l'OCDE, qui revendiquent les discours les plus anciens sur la pr\u00e9servation du climat, force est de constater que seules les crises ont eu un r\u00f4le discernable dans la limitation de notre soif d'or noir.\n\nLe graphique ci-dessous (donn\u00e9es BP Stat) illustre la consommation de produits p\u00e9troliers par cat\u00e9gorie (donc apr\u00e8s raffinage) dans la zone OCDE. les \"light distillates\" d\u00e9signent essentiellement l'essence, donc les transports terrestres. Dans \"middle distillates\", on trouve le fioul (ou le diesel, c'est le m\u00eame produit) et le k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne, qui servent donc dans les transports terrestres et a\u00e9rien, le chauffage, et dans l'industrie, et l'agriculture.\n\nFuel oil, c'est le fioul lourd, qui sert dans la marine marchande, et la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration \u00e9lectrique.\n\nOthers ce sont les produits raffin\u00e9s aux deux extr\u00e9mit\u00e9s de la \"densit\u00e9\" : les produits les plus l\u00e9gers (\u00e9thane, naphta) qui partiront dans la p\u00e9trochimie, puis se retrouveront dans \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s n'importe quoi que vous puissiez acheter aujourd'hui, de la brosse \u00e0 dents \u00e0 la peinture, du tupperware au vernis \u00e0 ongles, des chaises de jardin (m\u00eame en bois si elles sont vernies) aux gaines des fibres optiques, des phytosanitaires aux machines \u00e0 caf\u00e9. \n\nLes produits les plus lourds, ce sont les bitumes, huiles et cires, qui sont aussi indispensables comme produits interm\u00e9diaires dans toute la chaine industrielle. \n\nIl y a 3 moments o\u00f9 la consommation de p\u00e9trole a \u00e9t\u00e9 infl\u00e9chie : 1973 - la croissance physique de la production de p\u00e9trole passe de 8% par an \u00e0 1% par manque de ressources, le pic de production des d\u00e9couvertes conventionnelles \u00e9tant pass\u00e9 10 ans avant, puis 2006 - \u00e0 nouveau par manque de ressources, la production de p\u00e9trole conventionnel passant par son pic mondial (AIE, 2018), et enfin 2019 (juste avant le covid) parce que le shale oil s'arr\u00eate de croitre par manque de financements.\n\nRien, dans ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements, n'est du \u00e0 notre volont\u00e9 d'en consommer moins (la consommation repartait \u00e0 la hausse en m\u00eame temps que la voiture \u00e9lectrique commencait \u00e0 sortir du bruit de fond !). C'est dire si nous n'avons pas id\u00e9e de ce qui nous attend si nous devons diminuer notre consommation de ce liquide de 5% par an tous les ans pour les d\u00e9cennies qui viennent, comme le demande l'accord de Paris." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6840331688891949056,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6840331689596596224,urn:li:activity:6840331689596596224,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 32, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6840331689596596224,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6840331689596596224,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, 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"Depuis hier, j'ai un nouvel employeur, qui a la particularit\u00e9 d'\u00eatre \u00e0 temps tr\u00e8s partiel, et... de ne pas me payer (!), \u00e0 savoir RTL, qui m'a propos\u00e9 de diffuser une chronique hebdomadaire intitul\u00e9e \"C'est notre plan\u00e8te\" dans la matinale du Samedi matin. L'enregistrement de la premi\u00e8re \u00e9dition, qui portait sur le rapport du GIEC publi\u00e9 cet \u00e9t\u00e9, est disponible ici : https://lnkd.in/d6EEGJh7\n\nBien \u00e9videmment, je ne me l\u00e8ve pas \u00e0 6h du matin le Samedi pour faire cela. Comme beaucoup de chroniques des matinales, c'est enregistr\u00e9 \u00e0 l'avance, et je ferai m\u00eame cela par paquets de 3 ou 4 chroniques, pour ne pas avoir \u00e0 aller trop souvent dans les locaux de la radio, o\u00f9 il faut \u00eatre pr\u00e9sent pour l'enregistrement. Le sujet que je traite n'a pas que peu besoin d'une r\u00e9action au buzz de la veille.\n\n3 minutes une fois par semaine, c'est \u00e0 la fois ridicule (0,03% du temps d'antenne hebdomadaire) et \"significatif\" dans une matinale, o\u00f9 il est rare qu'un invit\u00e9, f\u00fbt-il ministre, dispose de beaucoup plus de 10 minutes de temps de parole. Donc on tente l'exp\u00e9rience, et on verra bien ce que cela donne.\n\nM\u00eame si RTL est une des radios les plus \u00e9cout\u00e9es de notre pays (la matinale week-end revendique un pic un peu en dessous de 2 millions d'auditeurs), ca ne fera qu'un peu moins de 3% de la population. Et surtout l'audience de la radio n'est pas toute jeune (moyenne d'\u00e2ge pas loin de 60 ans), donc peu \"plastique\" et ayant du mal \u00e0 changer ses habitudes. 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"accessibilityText": "Open article: Chantier Emploi du PTEF : Conf\u00e9rence et Ateliers le 7 septembre \u00e0 14h by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/invitation-chantier-emploi-rapport-intermediaire-7-septembre/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Chantier Emploi du PTEF : Conf\u00e9rence et Ateliers le 7 septembre \u00e0 14h" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6839831082104324096,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Mardi prochain, \u00e0 14h, The Shift Project pr\u00e9sentera son rapport provisoire sur le chantier \"emploi\" du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise.\n\nJusqu'\u00e0 maintenant, les propositions qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 faites par des associations environnementales pour \"changer nos modes de production et de consommation\" ont, pour l'essentiel, port\u00e9 sur le r\u00e9sultat final \u00e0 atteindre (moins de voitures, plus de trains, moins de viande, plus d'objets r\u00e9parables, moins d'\u00e9nergie dans les b\u00e2timents, etc), mais ont rarement d\u00e9crit les implications sur l'emploi de la r\u00e9organisation associ\u00e9e des fili\u00e8res productives : combien de plombiers en plus, de bouchers en moins, de livreurs \u00e0 v\u00e9lo en plus, d'ouvriers automobiles en moins, et si cela change le besoin en enseignants ou en infirmiers.\n\nCar il ne faut pas se mentir : moins consommer, c'est, toutes choses \u00e9gales par ailleurs, moins produire (voir une d\u00e9clinaison sur ce sujet de l'\u00e9quation de Kaya l\u00e0 : https://lnkd.in/garSJE4 ). A productivit\u00e9 par personne constante, c'est moins d'emplois dans la fili\u00e8re concern\u00e9e, et l\u00e0 syndicats et patronat se retrouvent unis pour demander que surtout rien ne bouge. Mais comment en vouloir \u00e0 des gens de vouloir garder leur job ?\n\nDans le cadre du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (PTEF), nous avons choisi d'affronter cette face nord. Notre chantier \"emploi\" est donc une premi\u00e8re tentative de dimensionner \"combien de monde\" serait n\u00e9cessaire \u00e0 terme dans les secteurs qui doivent changer pour, ensuite, voire comment on pourrait organiser les flux de la meilleure mani\u00e8re possible. Car changer les volumes d'emploi, cela est d\u00e9j\u00e0 arriv\u00e9 \u00e0 tr\u00e8s large \u00e9chelle sur les derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies, \u00e0 commencer par le passage de la population agricole d'un tiers (1945) \u00e0 2% de la population active.\n\nJ'esp\u00e8re que l'on nous pardonnera nos erreurs de d\u00e9butant (il y en a surement), malgr\u00e9 les efforts et le temps tr\u00e8s cons\u00e9quent que le groupe de travail a mis dans l'exercice, et que l'on choisira de voir surtout l'envie que nous avons de ne pas en rester \u00e0 des consid\u00e9rations g\u00e9n\u00e9rales sur \"il faut\", mais de descendre un peu dans les d\u00e9tails pour discuter concr\u00e8tement des mesures pertinentes, et des \"incontournables\", d\u00e8s lors que l'on entend anticiper plut\u00f4t que subir.\n\nNous esp\u00e9rons que cet axe permettra de nouer un dialogue fructueux avec les organisations syndicales, le monde de la reconversion professionnelle et de la formation initiale, les am\u00e9nageurs du territoire, et d'autres encore, pour discuter de ce qui est un enjeu majeur dans la vie des individus : comment l'emploi pourrait (devrait ?) \u00e9voluer dans un monde en d\u00e9carbonation rapide.\n\nL'acc\u00e8s au webinaire est libre et gratuit." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6839831082104324096,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6839831082666360832,urn:li:activity:6839831082666360832,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 15, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6839831082666360832,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6839831082666360832,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", 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"Ida : inondations exceptionnelles \u00e0 New York" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6839596425391689728,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A l'occasion du passage d'Ida au-dessus de New-York, il s'est pass\u00e9 avec les pr\u00e9cipitations ce qui s'est pass\u00e9 avec les temp\u00e9ratures lors de l'\u00e9pisode \"d\u00f4me de chaleur\" : le record enregistr\u00e9 pulv\u00e9rise litt\u00e9ralement le record pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.\n\nLe cumul horaire de pr\u00e9cipitations \u00e0 New-York a atteint un niveau record de 49 mm lors du passage d'Henri, fin aout 2021, ce qui signifie (je n'ai pas cherch\u00e9) que le record avant aout 2021 \u00e9tait inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 49 mm. A l'occasion d'Ida, il est pass\u00e9 \u00e0 80 mm, c'est \u00e0 dire quasiment 2 fois plus !\n\nRappelons que d\u00e8s 2014 le GIEC avait indiqu\u00e9 que l'intensit\u00e9 et la pluviom\u00e9trie des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes cycloniques devaient augmenter. Pour autant, nous n'observons pas partout autour de nous les mesures de pr\u00e9vention augmenter aussi... et donc la fin n'est pas difficile \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir : plus d'ennuis.\n\nDans les motifs relev\u00e9s par The Guardian sur le fait que nous n'agissons pas, il y a le fait que les media n'insistent pas assez (et le Guardian est un bon contre-exemple, car lui en parle beaucoup). Ce quotidien publie un article (https://lnkd.in/dcyFK_ru ) o\u00f9 il \u00e9voque une \u00e9tude - https://lnkd.in/dYSRYJCx - portant sur 774 sujets diffus\u00e9s par les chaines de t\u00e9l\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaines sur l'arriv\u00e9e d'Ida en Floride, o\u00f9 il y aussi de gros d\u00e9g\u00e2ts. \n\n4% seulement \u00e9voquent le changement climatique dans le sujet diffus\u00e9. Evoquer le changement climatique ne signifie pas affirmer que cet ouragan est du au changement climatique, mais en profiter pour rappeler que le changement climatique intensifiera les ouragans, et donc que cet \u00e9pisode est h\u00e9las illustratif d'un avenir pas tr\u00e8s d\u00e9sirable.\n\nEt le Guardian de conclure en appelant ses confr\u00e8res \u00e0 \"faire mieux\". 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Report Net Zero Initiative 2020-2021 | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/publication-net-zero-initiative-2020-2021-eng" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Report Net Zero Initiative 2020-2021 | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "The Net Zero Initiative methodolgy is now available in English. Developped by Carbone 4 with a large set of corporate partners, NZI describes how to act on three different \"pillars\" that are not to be added up - or substracted - one with another:\n\n- induced emissions along the value chain, e. g. emissions that are necessary in the present world for the processes of the value chain to physically take place,\n\n- avoided emissions along the value chain or outside it, e. g. benefits that are brought, as the case may be, by the company's products or services (for example a company that sells bikes that will replace - and not add up to - cars contributes to the decrease of the emissions of its clients)\n\n- sequestrated carbon, or sinks, along the value chain or outside it.\n\nDevelopping sinks does not \"compensate\" with emissions, for it does not suppress the dependancy of the value chain to emissions on one side, and rules regarding benefits associated with \"credits\" often allow to count as a flow down something which actually does not belong to that category, or not in the proper time frame.\n\nWe are still in the early stage of carbon accounting. 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7148255272758536196)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Electricit\u00e9 : menace sur la facture des consommateurs by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/electricite-menace-sur-la-facture-des-consommateurs-1342188" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Electricit\u00e9\u00a0: menace sur la facture des consommateurs" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6839445267335430145,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les prix de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 sur les march\u00e9s spot sont hauts, ce que tout le monde peut aller v\u00e9rifier sur le site https://lnkd.in/dfDBiw6J, et Les Echos s'en \u00e9meuvent. \n\nMais il n'y a l\u00e0 rien que de tr\u00e8s normal, voire attendu. Apr\u00e8s une longue p\u00e9riode de marasme \u00e0 des niveaux qui ne changent pas la donne, le prix de la tonne de CO2 sur le march\u00e9 spot atteint d\u00e9sormais quelques dizaines d'euros, et c'est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment le but de ce syst\u00e8me que de rendre la vie difficile aux utilisateurs industriels de combustibles fossiles.\n\nCertes, un \u00e9lectricien utilisant du gaz ou du charbon n'aura pas acquis la totalit\u00e9 de ses quotas au prix spot, mais c'est ce prix auquel il doit se fournir pour produire un MWh suppl\u00e9mentaire si il n'a pas ces quotas d\u00e9j\u00e0 en portefeuille.\n\nPar ailleurs, le gaz, compagnon de route des modes non pilotables (\u00e9olien et solaire) voit \u00e9galement son prix augmenter, comme cela arrive et arrivera p\u00e9riodiquement dans un monde o\u00f9 il y a des contraintes sur l'offre (l'Europe a pass\u00e9 son pic domestique de production en 2005, et les importations ne suivent pas pour compenser) et une demande qui ne baisse pas aussi vite.\n\nFaut-il s'\u00e9mouvoir de voir le prix de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 augmenter de fa\u00e7on erratique alors que le milieu \u00e9conomique a historiquement milit\u00e9 pour :\n- la \"lib\u00e9ralisation\" de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, et la fin des prix r\u00e9glement\u00e9s, ce qui cr\u00e9e de la volatilit\u00e9 par construction ?\n- le syst\u00e8me de march\u00e9 sur le CO2, plut\u00f4t que des contraintes r\u00e9glementaires ou une taxe carbone pr\u00e9visible, ce qui cr\u00e9e aussi de la volatilit\u00e9 ?\n\nLe march\u00e9, c'est formidable. Mais c'est volatil. 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C'est le graal, \u00e9videmment :\n- la croissance \u00e9conomique assure \"m\u00e9caniquement\" la hausse du pouvoir d'achat, la possibilit\u00e9 d'augmenter l'emploi global sans devoir diminuer les salaires ni les rentes, l'augmentation des recettes budg\u00e9taires (l'essentiel des imp\u00f4ts sont pr\u00e9lev\u00e9s sur des composantes du PIB, et sont donc des imp\u00f4ts de flux, non des imp\u00f4ts de stock), et j'en passe\n- la \"verdeur\" assure l'atteinte des objectifs environnementaux, avec une baisse des \u00e9missions de toute nature (gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, polluants), de l'artificialisation des sols, de la d\u00e9forestation, une restauration de la biodiversit\u00e9, etc.\n\nEn termes un peu techniques, cette situation poss\u00e8de un nom : cela s'appelle le d\u00e9couplage. L'\u00e9volution du PIB devient structurellement et globalement croissante pendant que l'\u00e9volution des inconv\u00e9nients devient structurellement et globalement d\u00e9croissante.\n\nCe d\u00e9couplage, il est de fait pr\u00e9sent dans bon nombre de \"sc\u00e9narios de place\" propos\u00e9s par des instances connues : l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie, la Commission Europ\u00e9enne, des ONG environnementales... Et c'est sur ce genre de sc\u00e9narios que nombre d'entreprises b\u00e2tissent leur discours public, voire leurs plans strat\u00e9giques.\n\nMalheureusement, \u00eatre capable de se figurer une situation ne signifie pas n\u00e9cessairement que nous pouvons l'atteindre. Tout le monde s'imagine tr\u00e8s bien ce que veut ou pourrait dire rajeunir, retrouver son int\u00e9grit\u00e9 physique quand on l'a perdue, (re)trouver l'amour d'une personne ch\u00e8re, trouver l'emploi de ses r\u00eaves ou voir une dette dispara\u00eetre, et pour autant y arriver rel\u00e8ve parfois (h\u00e9las !) de l'impossible, et il faut \"faire avec\".\n\nCette nouvelle publication de Carbone 4 ne sp\u00e9culera pas sur la possibilit\u00e9 de voir une dette de jeu s'\u00e9vanouir par miracle :). Mais par contre nous esp\u00e9rons qu'elle vous convaincra qu'il est urgent de ne pas r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 l'avenir d'une entreprise en consid\u00e9rant que ce d\u00e9couplage est certain \u00e0 l'avenir, simplement parce qu'il est d\u00e9sirable." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6839080661182136320,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6839080661861613568,urn:li:activity:6839080661861613568,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 41, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6839080661861613568,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6839080661861613568,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": 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des shifters, \u00e0 Lyon (lesquels sont d\u00e9sormais plusieurs milliers, merci \u00e0 eux !). Ce sera notamment l\u00e0 que The Shift Project pr\u00e9sentera de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9taill\u00e9e pour la premi\u00e8re fois la totalit\u00e9 du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ), un ensemble de propositions op\u00e9rationnelles couvrant 15 secteurs pour, d\u00e8s le d\u00e9but du prochain quinquennat, emmener notre pays sur la voie d'une baisse de 5% par an des \u00e9missions (vision empreinte carbone) associ\u00e9es \u00e0 notre mode de vie.\n\nNous y organisons aussi des d\u00e9bats avec des acteurs \u00e9conomiques, syndicaux, associatifs, etc. Et il y aura beaucoup de temps pour les \u00e9changes entre participants ! 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qui utilisent \"ESG\" ou \"climat\" dans leur argumentaire marketing : https://lnkd.in/dcBC2x3Y\n\nLa premi\u00e8re conclusion d'Influence Map est la profusion de termes utilis\u00e9s pour d\u00e9crire les strat\u00e9gies de ces fonds, rendant toute comparaison difficile. Influence Map les a reclass\u00e9s dans 2 cat\u00e9gories : \"ESG g\u00e9n\u00e9ralistes\" et \"th\u00e9matique climat\".\n\nDans les \"ESG g\u00e9n\u00e9ralistes\", soit 593 fonds g\u00e9rant 265 milliards de $, 421 sont compos\u00e9s d'actions d'entreprises qui ne sont pas align\u00e9es avec l'accord de Paris.\n\nDans les \"th\u00e9matique climat\", soit 130 fonds g\u00e9rant 67 milliards de $, la majorit\u00e9 des fonds ne sont pas align\u00e9s \"Accord de Paris\". Plus int\u00e9ressant, pour une large partie de ces fonds, le d\u00e9faut d'alignement n'est pas tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rent de ce qu'il est pour les indices de march\u00e9. Dit autrement, vous investissez dans un fonds qui pr\u00e9tend \u00eatre meilleur que ses pairs pour le climat, et la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 est que cela aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 pareil pour le climat si vous aviez investi dans le CAC 40 ou le Dow Jones sans vous poser de questions.\n\nC'est la strat\u00e9gie de gestion qui est en cause : en fait ces portefeuilles partent d'indices classiques, puis excluent des valeurs sp\u00e9cifiques, ou pond\u00e8rent diff\u00e9remment. Du coup ca ne change pas grand chose sur l'ensemble.\n\nSur le m\u00eame th\u00e8me (les fonds \"climat\" sont-ils vraiment climat ?) l'EDHEC Risk Institute organise un webinaire sur le \"le greenwashing des portefeuilles\" (https://lnkd.in/dPh8dTCV ). On peut lire dans l'annonce \"le d\u00e9calage entre les promesses des strat\u00e9gies d\u2019investissement favorisant l\u2019alignement climatique et la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de la prise en compte concr\u00e8te des performances climatiques des entreprises dans les fonds et indices repr\u00e9sentatifs de ces strat\u00e9gies est si important que l\u2019on peut parler de greenwashing du portefeuille\".\n\nSeule la g\u00e9n\u00e9ralisation de m\u00e9thodes appropri\u00e9es et une r\u00e9glementation dissuasive sur ce genre de discours pourront emp\u00eacher ce processus. 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{ "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1650470332257?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=CC_f3ztqNsN15bZ8lAnazeCeAAP-NpKfRg5Mck5nlGY", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1650470332257?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=ZWTDOiqryBagHkgmzkc98rtP1RcPemVOhxZZJVWBu-I", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1650470332257?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=OWI-UHpEQFFtzgeu2aUYiFO3UtUIkO_4qnkE0IuFLfY", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQGhbrhhhWucGw/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "cdc-biodiversite", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:25494626", "trackingId": "OxJNKorGQDmgSMN8Xh0UzA==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "En s'inspirant du titre d'un livre c\u00e9l\u00e8bre de Rachel Carson, intitul\u00e9 Silent Spring (https://lnkd.in/d84vyuKt), et qui \u00e9voquait un printemps devenu silencieux parce que les oiseaux ne seraient plus l\u00e0 pour chanter \u00e0 cause de notre pression sur la biodiversit\u00e9 (ce qui est malheureusement l'\u00e9volution en cours), la Banque de France publie un \"working paper\" sur l'empreinte biodiversit\u00e9 des obligations d\u00e9tenues par le syst\u00e8me financier fran\u00e7ais : https://lnkd.in/dmD4p-gg\n\nLa m\u00e9thode retenue est de calculer l'empreinte biodiversit\u00e9 de chaque \u00e9metteur des obligations d\u00e9tenues par les acteurs du syst\u00e8me financier fran\u00e7ais, de rapporter cela \u00e0 l'obligation, puis d'agr\u00e9ger cette empreinte au niveau du portefeuille global. \n\nLa Banque de France a fait cela en utilisant la m\u00e9thode BIA-GBS d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e par Carbon4 Finance sur la base d'une m\u00e9thodologie de CDC BIODIVERSIT\u00c9.\n\nOn note dans le document le \u00a7 suivant : \n\"An interesting feature of the BIA-GBS methodology is that, for climate change pressure, it does not use the average greenhouse (GHG) emissions intensity of turnover in the sector-region pair in which the company operates (...). Instead, it uses recalculated GHG emissions for each issuer, taken from an in-house database developed by Carbon4 Finance called Carbon Impact Analytics (CIA), which makes it possible to obtain a biodiversity footprint that is more accurate for each company. The CIA database provides Scope 1, 2 and 3 GHG emissions. They are obtained with a bottom-up approach, by collecting physical output data (published by companies in their annual, financial or environmental reports) and translating it into tons of CO2.\"\n\nNous sommes \u00e9videmment ravis que la Banque de France utilise nos donn\u00e9es pour cette premi\u00e8re sur la biodiversit\u00e9, m\u00eame si ce n'est qu'un premier pas et que maintenant il faut \"faire quelque chose\" de cette information !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6838372152090095616,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6838372152731832320,urn:li:activity:6838372152731832320,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 14, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6838372152731832320,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", 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Les juges allemands sont aussi capables d'humour. Selon Euractiv, un tribunal de ce pays vient d'ordonner \u00e0 Gazprom d'ouvrir \u00e0 la concurrence le futur gazoduc Nord Stream 2. Traduction : Gazprom, qui poss\u00e8de ce futur gros tuyau, sera pri\u00e9 de laisser y passer le gaz venant d'un autre producteur que Gazprom. \n\nComme le tuyau part de Russie, o\u00f9 Gazprom est 7 fois plus gros que le producteur qui le suit, et que par ailleurs les juges allemands poss\u00e8dent un pouvoir \"d'application des peines\" assez limit\u00e9 en Russie, on se demande bien ce qui va se passer si Gazprom envoie la justice allemande sur les roses. Les juges allemands vont ordonner aux centrales \u00e0 gaz allemandes (qui doivent assurer la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'approvisionnement) d'arr\u00eater d'utiliser du gaz ayant transit\u00e9 par cette infrastructure ? Ca serait assez amusant de voir des black-out en Allemagne au nom du \"respect de la concurrence\" !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6838054649157705728,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6838054649560342528,urn:li:activity:6838054649560342528,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 40, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6838054649560342528,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6838054649560342528,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1616687524968?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=FZqoTscyqjx9uAnOLtMTC5WpC_oBE6WMUlzIRd9VH38", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1616687524968?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=_hhhqO-GM3HYKlTwsCECdwB7E9KRlkx3dHZytbUWDl8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D03AQFB1fCD65B9eA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "o53XFCzbTDqquNfs8XS2vg==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "2 chercheuses du Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (London School of Economics and Political Science), Joana Setzer et Catherine Higham, publient un \u00e9tat des proc\u00e8s existants, de par le monde, qui sont faits au nom du climat : https://lnkd.in/dA6_rGE5\n\nOn y apprend que le \"stock\" de proc\u00e9dures en cours a plus que doubl\u00e9 depuis 2015. Il y a eu autant de nouvelles affaires en 6 ans que pendant les presque 30 (1986 \u00e0 2015) qui ont pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9. Pays roi du proc\u00e8s, les USA regroupent environ les 3/4 du recours aux tribunaux, et c'est le gouvernement qui est le plus souvent vis\u00e9.\n\nLes affaires termin\u00e9es (environ 370) se sont conclues dans plus de la moiti\u00e9 des cas par une d\u00e9cision \"favorable au climat\", et 32% des cas par une d\u00e9cision qui lui est d\u00e9favorable. Le solde est sans impact discernable.\n\nDans les tendances \"int\u00e9ressantes\" constat\u00e9es, il y a le fait que les plaignants essaient de plus en plus de prendre les entreprises financi\u00e8res \u00e0 leur propre jeu, en les accusant d'un d\u00e9faut de devoir fiduciaire (ce devoir consiste \u00e0 g\u00e9rer l'argent des \u00e9pargnants au mieux de l'int\u00e9r\u00eat financier de ces derniers). Cela revient \u00e0 dire que le climat dans les investissements n'est pas une affaire de \"je donne le change en publiant un rapport, quelle que soit la m\u00e9thode que j'ai utilis\u00e9e pour cela\", mais de gestion s\u00e9rieuse du risque (reste \u00e0 en convaincre les \u00e9quipes op\u00e9rationnelles des gestionnaires d'actifs et des investisseurs, qui pour le moment n'en sont pas toujours persuad\u00e9es !).\n\nLes entreprises non financi\u00e8res (p\u00e9trole, ciment, distribution...) sont aussi de plus en plus concern\u00e9es. Les motifs invoqu\u00e9s peuvent inclure le greenwashing, un d\u00e9faut de communication des risques, un d\u00e9faut d'alignement avec les objectifs annonc\u00e9s, ou encore l'existence d'un projet particulier. Enfin le d\u00e9faut de mesures d'adaptation commence \u00e0 faire son apparition.\n\nEt pour plus tard ? Le nombre d'affaires devrait continuer \u00e0 augmenter, en phase avec un sentiment d'urgence croissant dans la population. Les entit\u00e9s qui attaquent et les motifs invoqu\u00e9s devraient se diversifier. Il devrait y avoir un nombre croissant de plaintes en cas d'absence de plan s\u00e9rieux pour commencer \u00e0 r\u00e9duire \u00e0 court terme alors qu'il y a des engagements de long terme, en cas de non prise en compte des \u00e9missions de la chaine de valeur dans les plans, ou en cas de greenwashing.\n\nUn nombre croissant d'entreprises devraient donc se retrouver dans une situation o\u00f9 les actionnaires, les salari\u00e9s, les consommateurs ou la puissance publique n'accepteropnt pas l'absence d'engagement s\u00e9rieux, et les associations qui recourent aux tribunaux n'accepteront pas l'absence d'action coh\u00e9rente avec un engagement s\u00e9rieux. 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6837669599580827648,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Cela fait d\u00e9sormais 15 ans que notre pays dispose normalement d'une politique d'adaptation au changement climatique, dot\u00e9e d'un budget annonc\u00e9 \u00e0 quelques milliards par Les Echos.\n\nMais dans les faits, cette politique reste peu visible... probablement parce qu'elle est peu pr\u00e9sente ! Et surtout, elle ne peut \u00eatre envisag\u00e9e comme une d\u00e9marche sectorielle \"\u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9\" des autres choses que nous faisons. S'adapter \u00e0 un climat changeant, c'est par construction faire une analyse par sc\u00e9narios appliqu\u00e9e \u00e0 chaque infrastructure avant de d\u00e9cider d'une conduite \u00e0 tenir (abandon sans reconstruction, abandon et reconstruction, am\u00e9nagements...), et proc\u00e9der de m\u00eame pour chaque champ, chaque usine, chaque chaine de valeur, chaque organisation, chaque programme d'enseignement (faut-il former des bucherons l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la for\u00eat va dispara\u00eetre, ou des moniteurs de ski l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la neige sera du pass\u00e9 ? Et que dire sur le changement climatique dans leur futur m\u00e9tier \u00e0 un infirmier ou un conducteur de train ?), etc.\n\nCe budget devrait donc avant tout \u00eatre d\u00e9volu \u00e0 former puis embaucher des personnes comp\u00e9tentes pour intervenir dans toutes les organisations au plus haut niveau. Avec une grande difficult\u00e9, qui est que cette approche ne peut relever que d'une analyse par sc\u00e9narios, puisque le futur n'est pas totalement \u00e9crit. L\u00e0 o\u00f9 il sera possible de conserver l'existant avec telle ampleur de d\u00e9rive climatique, on devra l'abandonner (dans la douleur \u00e9ventuellement) avec telle autre. Parer \u00e0 toutes les \u00e9ventualit\u00e9s rel\u00e8ve donc d'une gymnastique intellectuelle particuli\u00e8rement exigeante. Mais ne pas le faire assure d'\u00eatre de plus en plus pris au d\u00e9pourvu." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6837669599580827648,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6837669600138690560,urn:li:activity:6837669600138690560,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 36, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6837669600138690560,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6837669600138690560,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Apr\u00e8s l'Espagne (qui a construit des centrales au gaz en m\u00eame temps que des \u00e9oliennes), l'Allemagne (qui \"avance\" vers un mix enr+gaz), la Belgique (qui veut remplacer son nucl\u00e9aire par du gaz), et j'en passe, c'est au tour de la Californie de se tourner vers ce combustible fossile pour \u00e9quilibrer l'intermittence de l'\u00e9olien et du solaire.\n\nD'ordinaire, quand on souhaite r\u00e9ussir coute que coute \u00e0 atteindre un objectif, on commence par utiliser des moyens \u00e9prouv\u00e9s, m\u00eame s'ils pr\u00e9sentent des inconv\u00e9nients, et pendant que l'on avance on cherche en m\u00eame temps si on ne pourrait pas avoir mieux. Le cas de figure typique c'est l'emploi : il faut bien payer le loyer, alors on prend un job qui n'est peut-\u00eatre pas celui de ses r\u00eaves (mais on sait que ca permet de payer le loyer), et on cherche mieux pendant que l'on a quand m\u00eame un toit.\n\nOn pourrait imaginer la m\u00eame chose pour d\u00e9carboner l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 : on sait que ce qui fonctionne bien ce sont les barrages et les r\u00e9acteurs nucl\u00e9aires, donc on commence par mobiliser ces moyens l\u00e0, et dans le m\u00eame temps on met quelque argent dans la recherche pour \u00e9ventuellement trouver mieux (du nucl\u00e9aire plus performant, des moyens intermittents mais efficaces et coupl\u00e9s \u00e0 du stockage lui-m\u00eame disponible en grande quantit\u00e9 sans d\u00e9bauche de moyens physiques, etc).\n\nMais de nombreux pays dans le monde font l'inverse. Ils d\u00e9laissent les moyens \u00e9prouv\u00e9s - voire les ferment - pour prendre un pari qu'ils ne sont pas du tout s\u00fbrs de gagner. 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can help" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6836203913545318400,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) ont publi\u00e9 il y a plus d'un an une tribune (qui ne fait pas l'objet d'une revue par un comit\u00e9 de lecture) qui reste d'une actualit\u00e9 br\u00fblante, sans mauvais jeu de mots, sur la question suivante : le \"prix du carbone\" est-il la base de toute trajectoire de d\u00e9carbonation ?\n\nOui, avait plaid\u00e9 votre serviteur dans un livre co-\u00e9crit avec Alain Grandjean et paru en 2006 : https://lnkd.in/gkcMgu5\n\nPas tant que ca, plaident les auteurs de cette tribune, car ce syst\u00e8me souffre de plusieurs faiblesses :\n- tout d'abord, il postule que la d\u00e9carbonation ne demande que des \"corrections du march\u00e9\", et non des transformations syst\u00e9miques,\n- il pousse \u00e0 l'optimisation de l'existant de fa\u00e7on incr\u00e9mentale, non \u00e0 sa transformation, \n- il garantit une optimisation unitaire des objets, non une r\u00e9duction d'ensemble (l'effet rebond reste possible),\n- enfin cette mesure n'int\u00e8gre pas le contexte politique local (pour donner un exemple pr\u00e9cis, elle ne \"pr\u00e9voit\" pas les gilets jaunes).\n\nEn cons\u00e9quence de quoi, tout miser sur le prix du carbone est trop lent et trop partiel pour nous permettre d'arriver \u00e0 bon port dans les d\u00e9lais impartis. Et l'exp\u00e9rience des 15 ann\u00e9es \u00e9coul\u00e9es depuis la parution du \"Plein s'il vous plait\" me conduit \u00e0 \u00eatre d'accord avec eux (il faut bien que l'exp\u00e9rience serve \u00e0 quelque chose parfois !). Une taxe dit ce qu'il ne faut plus faire, mais ne dit pas n\u00e9cessairement quoi faire. \n\nLa taxe carbone a en outre un effet pervers non d\u00e9crit par les auteurs : comme elle fournit des recettes \u00e0 l'Etat, ce dernier n'a pas int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 supprimer la nuisance, pour conserver la recette (point identifi\u00e9 dans Le Plein).\n\nC'est pour cela que l'approche retenue dans le plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise du Shift Project (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ), qui est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 nourrir le d\u00e9bat des prochaines pr\u00e9sidentielles (et au-del\u00e0), est celle pr\u00e9conis\u00e9e dans cet article : un ensemble de politiques sectorielles coh\u00e9rentes, disant quoi faire en m\u00eame temps que quoi ne plus faire, nommant les acteurs qui doivent agir, donnant des objectifs globaux, pr\u00e9voyant la mani\u00e8re de \"traiter les perdants\", d\u00e9crivant les structures \u00e0 mettre en place et celles \u00e0 supprimer, et les comp\u00e9tences qui seront n\u00e9cessaires. Bref, un plan bien con\u00e7u (car on peut faire des plans foireux, le simple fait de faire un plan ne garantit pas le succ\u00e8s !).\n\nPour donner un exemple, pour remplacer les chaudi\u00e8res \u00e0 fioul par des pompes \u00e0 chaleur, il faut des propri\u00e9taires agissant, des artisans bien form\u00e9s et une fili\u00e8re de production aux volumes adapt\u00e9s. La taxe carbone ne fait pas spontan\u00e9ment \u00e9merger ce syst\u00e8me, qui peut tr\u00e8s bien se mettre en place avec uniquement des d\u00e9cisions r\u00e9glementaires.\n\nLa taxe carbone est assur\u00e9ment un outil utile dans un projet de soci\u00e9t\u00e9, mais elle ne remplace pas ce dernier." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6836203913545318400,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6836203914304475136,urn:li:activity:6836203914304475136,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 23, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6836203914304475136,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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climat.\n\nLa premi\u00e8re fourn\u00e9e de \"n'importe quoi\" concernait la n\u00e9gation du probl\u00e8me, appell\u00e9e classiquement \"climatoscepticisme\". Elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 relay\u00e9e par la presse (car sans media les climatoceptiques n'ont pas d'existence publique !) au nom du \"droit au d\u00e9bat\" qui en l'esp\u00e8ce relevait plutot de la complicit\u00e9 d'imposture : https://lnkd.in/g4-_M7f .\n\nComme le probl\u00e8me n'\u00e9tait pas encore visible, ces points de vue ont trouv\u00e9 un certain \u00e9cho, m\u00eame si l'examen approfondi des arguments permettait toujours de voir qu'ils n'\u00e9taient pas valides (https://lnkd.in/df3fzsmF ).\n\nA mesure que le temps passe, et que les pr\u00e9visions d'il y a 20 ou 30 ans deviennent une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 (malheureusement), ce courant l\u00e0 faiblit un peu, m\u00eame s'il ne dispara\u00eetra jamais (https://lnkd.in/da8NZpc ).\n\nPlace alors \u00e0 la deuxi\u00e8me vague du d\u00e9ni : le greenwashing. L\u00e0, il ne s'agit plus de se rassurer en niant le probl\u00e8me, mais de se rassurer en expliquant qu'il est facile \u00e0 mettre sous contr\u00f4le, si ce n'est d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait, alors m\u00eame que les actes montrent l'exact inverse.\n\nCe sont des gouvernements faisant des d\u00e9clarations martiales de neutralit\u00e9 pendant qu'ils font tout pour encourager le \"d\u00e9veloppement\" de l'\u00e9conomie actuelle, qui \u00e9met des gaz \u00e0 effet de serre ; ce sont des entreprises dont l'empreinte carbone augmente en m\u00eame temps qu'elles se d\u00e9clarent neutres ; ce sont des financiers qui expliquent qu'ils lavent plus vert alors que ce n'est pas le cas (https://lnkd.in/dRS9vNZ) ; ce sont des entreprises qui attirent l'attention sur une solution qui vaut 1 pendant que le probl\u00e8me vaut 1000, et la liste des \"trouvailles\" risque fort de s'allonger avec le temps.\n\nQue faire ? Il se trouve que le d\u00e9ni face \u00e0 la menace diffuse et non palpable est une r\u00e9action h\u00e9las tr\u00e8s normale, car cela permet de recr\u00e9er un monde pr\u00e9visible, ce qui est une de nos envies fortes : https://lnkd.in/d3ZhQ8Pa\n\nIl y pourtant un d\u00e9but de solution, et qui passe justement par la presse. Cette derni\u00e8re pourrait former ses journalistes \u00e0 comprendre ce qu'est le greenwashing, puis refuser de relayer ce qui en rel\u00e8ve. Ca ne changera pas la structure de notre cerveau, mais ca pourrait donner un peu plus envie de mieux faire \u00e0 tous ceux qui ont surtout envie de se rassurer \u00e0 bon compte." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6835961052476280833,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6835961053105414145,urn:li:activity:6835961053105414145,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 55, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6835961053105414145,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6835961053105414145,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": 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collectif de belges, plut\u00f4t jeunes (enfin vu de ma fen\u00eatre !), et surtout ne travaillant pas dans l'industrie nucl\u00e9aire (on y trouve des personnes travaillant dans \"le vivant\", un dentiste, des gens dans le num\u00e9rique...) appelle, dans une longue tribune publi\u00e9e par Le Vif, \u00e0 faire en sorte que le nucl\u00e9aire soit du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des solutions plut\u00f4t que des probl\u00e8mes, en soutenant que c'est possible si on le souhaite. \n\nL'int\u00e9r\u00eat de ce texte est qu'il argumente essentiellement en termes de risques compar\u00e9s, ce qui est \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence la bonne mani\u00e8re de faire dans le monde r\u00e9el, o\u00f9 rien n'est parfait, mais o\u00f9 il y a souvent une alternative qui est meilleure, ou \u00e0 d\u00e9faut moins mauvaise, qu'une autre. \n\nLes auteurs \u00e9crivent que tous les nucl\u00e9aires ne se valent pas, et qu'il y a de bonnes et de mauvaises mani\u00e8res d'en faire, comme il y a de bonnes et de mauvaises mani\u00e8res de faire de l'acier (en faire un peu pour des couverts et des v\u00e9los n'est pas \u00e9quivalent \u00e0 en faire beaucoup pour construire des villes non soutenables). Il faut d\u00e9cider d'en faire de la bonne mani\u00e8re, et pour cela il faut discuter dans les d\u00e9tails, en sortant du sch\u00e9ma binaire pour ou contre, qui est d\u00e9sormais st\u00e9rile.\n\nDans les arguments \u00e9voqu\u00e9s que je n'avais pas vus avant, il y a notamment le fait que d'abandonner le nucl\u00e9aire civil en Europe revient \u00e0 laisser de fait son d\u00e9veloppement \u00e0 des autocrates (Russie, Chine) ou \u00e0 des int\u00e9r\u00eats priv\u00e9s (Gates, etc) qui en d\u00e9finiront alors les standards et les technologies avec des crit\u00e8res qui n'auraient peut-\u00eatre pas \u00e9t\u00e9 les n\u00f4tres. \n\nLes auteurs appellent \u00e9videmment le gouvernement belge \u00e0 reconsid\u00e9rer sa position, qu'ils trouvent non justifi\u00e9e et pour partie b\u00e2tie sur des probl\u00e8mes d'ego (ils n'ont pas tort...), mais leur propos va bien au-del\u00e0 de cette \u00e9ch\u00e9ance \"courte\" et du cas belge, et embrasse plus largement la place de cette technologie et de l'Europe dans un combat plan\u00e9taire.\n\nNotons qu'une des mani\u00e8res de sortir du d\u00e9bat binaire \u00e9voqu\u00e9 par les auteurs, c'est justement de laisser de l'espace \u00e0 des textes un peu nuanc\u00e9s et vulgarisant un peu en profondeur les termes du d\u00e9bat. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Russie : Vladimir Poutine appelle \u00e0 agir face \u00e0 des catastrophes naturelles d\u2019une \u00ab ampleur sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent \u00bb by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2021/08/14/russie-vladimir-poutine-appelle-a-agir-face-a-des-catastrophes-naturelles-d-une-ampleur-sans-precedent_6091440_3244.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Russie\u00a0: Vladimir Poutine appelle \u00e0 agir face \u00e0 des catastrophes naturelles d\u2019une \u00ab\u00a0ampleur sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6835138041472942080,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La Russie n'a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 un pays tr\u00e8s visible en ce qui concerne les discours sur la r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, et est plut\u00f4t connue pour tra\u00eener gentiment la patte dans les d\u00e9bats internationaux sur le changement climatique (elle est le 4\u00e8 \u00e9metteur mondial de CO2, apr\u00e8s la Chine, les USA et l'Inde).\n\nPlusieurs facteurs peuvent expliquer ce fait :\n- pays subissant un climat rude sur l'essentiel de son territoire, le r\u00e9chauffement y \u00e9tait vu comme apportant des effets plut\u00f4t b\u00e9n\u00e9fiques (ports moins longtemps englac\u00e9s sur l'Arctique, conditions plus favorables pour l'agriculture...),\n- la Russie est dans le top 3 des producteurs de p\u00e9trole (2\u00e8 en 2020, et 1er exportateur mondial) et de gaz (2\u00e8 en 2020 aussi, et aussi 1er exportateur mondial). A cela il faut ajouter la d\u00e9tention des 1\u00e8res r\u00e9serves mondiales de gaz et les 3\u00e8 pour le charbon. \n\nMais, sans mauvais jeu de mots, le vent tourne un peu. Ce pays r\u00e9alise que le r\u00e9chauffement climatique ce sont aussi des s\u00e9cheresses et par cons\u00e9quence des incendies de plus en plus vastes et violents, des r\u00e9coltes de c\u00e9r\u00e9ales qui peuvent descendre au lieu de monter, ou encore des infrastructures construites sur le permafrost qui se fragilisent.\n\nNous n'en sommes pas encore \u00e0 la reconversion \u00e9conomique \u00e0 marche forc\u00e9e d'un pays o\u00f9 les hydrocarbures jouent un r\u00f4le \u00e9conomique central (de 20% \u00e0 40% du PIB selon les sources et le p\u00e9rim\u00e8tre retenu, mais ca fait beaucoup dans tous les cas de figure !). \n\nIl reste \u00e0 voir si cette inflexion dans le discours, alors que par ailleurs ce pays a annonc\u00e9 avoir pass\u00e9 son pic de production pour le p\u00e9trole (ce qui est coh\u00e9rent avec l'analyse du Shift Project : https://lnkd.in/d4UTPeJR ), sera suivie d'annonces ou de propos \"de suite\", ou non. Poutine n'\u00e9tant pas r\u00e9put\u00e9 pour tenir des propos visant juste \u00e0 faire plaisir \u00e0 d'autres, les optimistes se diront qu'il y a peut-\u00eatre le d\u00e9but d'une vraie perplexit\u00e9 dans ce pays. Ce serait une bonne nouvelle si c'est le cas !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6835138041472942080,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6835138041988841472,urn:li:activity:6835138041988841472,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 52, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6835138041988841472,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6835138041988841472,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6835138041988841472", 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comme mat\u00e9riau, plus de biomasse pour des usages \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, pr\u00e9server la biodiversit\u00e9, et augmenter les puits de carbone dans un climat \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive ? \n\nCa va \u00eatre plus vite dit que fait, consid\u00e8re France Strat\u00e9gie, qui vient de publier une \u00e9tude indiquant que le potentiel de biomasse retenu dans la Strat\u00e9gie Nationale Bas Carbone lui semble (beaucoup) trop optimiste, m\u00eame en imaginant des \u00e9volutions... optimistes par ailleurs sur les param\u00e8tres dimensionants de l'affaire : https://lnkd.in/dTF3PuhW \n\nEt m\u00eame France Strat\u00e9gie est optimiste : rappelons que, alors que nous avons toujours des tracteurs (p\u00e9trole, mais aussi \u00e9rosion des sols), des engrais (gaz, p\u00e9trole), des phytosanitaires (p\u00e9trole & pression sur la biodiversit\u00e9), et que le r\u00e9chauffement ne fait \"que\" 1\u00b0C, certaines cultures peuvent d\u00e9j\u00e0 perdre 40% d'une ann\u00e9e sur l'autre, et des for\u00eats peuvent d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9p\u00e9rir ou br\u00fbler (auquel cas il y a aussi une perte importante de biomasse).\n\nIl n'en reste pas moins que la biomasse est une composante essentielle d'un approvisionnement d\u00e9carbon\u00e9. Mais pour qu'un syst\u00e8me p\u00e9renne et adapt\u00e9 se mette en place, conciliant les contraires il ne faudra pas juste le souhaiter. Il faudrait s'en occuper avec au moins autant de moyens que ce que nous mettons dans les licornes et la 5G :)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6834887651212972032,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6834887651754033152,urn:li:activity:6834887651754033152,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 37, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6834887651754033152,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6834887651754033152,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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Auteur de \u00ab Nucl\u00e9aire : une catastrophe fran\u00e7aise \u00bb aux \u00e9ditions Fayard", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:167711314", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAAAn_ElIBR4kKOxLubSjnpkpjRclz-9AAM4U", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1643636254768?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=SYC_8JwTKXwAvz124KkyGDr-_KPkA8Z6W_EnmpwxbWI", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1643636254768?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=vK2XfP1MT0pvOHxDhshJvDV-pJ9OO8XGQ_AN50fKddM", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 350 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D16AQFo_5xmjrSWkQ/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_" } }, "publicIdentifier": "erwan-benezet-1aa1bb48", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1569591604422?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=dWfYkeyP4xoo892urcC0bFZnyM_P1o6Sk_kG1OgwpIA", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1569591604422?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=2XogMmEdmCHzx29nly76cR1ucqhV-ku6ZIY19rfIky4", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1569591604422?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=55iqJEZPmmS2pGWfhxHONNX8pk2aujDXdaworS5y_XI", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1569591604422?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=iHp1ydJYcidsbectti5mBV1YJF9FXAzBV6URqWgYBuQ", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D03AQGTal2YFmiGbA/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "PFSLjQWeTAODMnWn+d2cfA==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "La titraille du journal Le Parisien aurait peut-\u00eatre du choisir une affirmation un peu moins \"choc\" pour cet article d'Erwan Benezet sur le stockage de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9.\n\nJe ne sais pas si l'article (r\u00e9serv\u00e9 aux seuls abonn\u00e9s) comporte un milliard de r\u00e9serves pour contrebalancer l'optimisme du titre, mais ce dernier laissera penser sans l'ombre d'une h\u00e9sitation au lecteur peu averti que stocker l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (sous entendu \u00e0 la bonne \u00e9chelle) ne posera bient\u00f4t plus de probl\u00e8me, et donc le d\u00e9ploiement de sources intermittentes peut se faire sans limites de ce point de vue.\n\nSelon le Conseil G\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l'Economie, il faut 143 grammes de lithium pour faire une batterie d'un kWh de capacit\u00e9 de stockage (https://lnkd.in/dg6ZwHN2 ). Admettons que le progr\u00e8s technique permette de converger \u00e0 100 grammes (ca ne sera jamais 100 microgrammes, parce que ce sont pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment les atomes de lithium qui stockent l'\u00e9nergie).\n\nSelon BP Statistical Review, citant l'US Geological Survey, les r\u00e9serves de lithium \u00e0 fin 2020 \u00e9taient de 18\u00a0955\u00a0000 tonnes dans le monde, soit de quoi fabriquer 190 TWh (1 TWh = 1 milliard de kWh) de capacit\u00e9 de stockage sur batteries en mode \"optimis\u00e9\". \n\nSelon RTE, avec un syst\u00e8me 100% \u00e9olien et solaire, il faut environ 50 TWh de stockage (donc environ 10% de la production) rien que pour se couvrir contre la variabilit\u00e9 de la production d'une ann\u00e9e sur l'autre (l'ensoleillement et le vent ne sont en effet pas constants d'une ann\u00e9e sur l'autre) : https://lnkd.in/d79qmtg\n\nLa France devrait donc \"s'arroger\" un quart du lithium des r\u00e9serves mondiales pour avoir un syst\u00e8me 100% ENR \"back\u00e9\" par du stockage sur batteries. C'est ce que soutient implicitement Le Parisien ?\n\nCertes, il y aura plus de lithium extractible que ce qu'il y a actuellement dans les r\u00e9serves prouv\u00e9es. Si le monde entier utilise des batteries pour \"backer\" l'intermittence, il faut donc du lithium pour 10% de la production \u00e9lectrique mondiale de 2020, soit environ 2700 TWh de capacit\u00e9 de stockage, demandant 15 fois les r\u00e9serves prouv\u00e9es actuelles (et cela sans parler d'une augmentation de la production \u00e9lectrique renouvelable pour pallier la baisse des combustibles fossiles). \n\nAvec ces ordres de grandeur, je ne suis pas compl\u00e8tement sur qu'un titre laissant penser que nous allons y arriver facilement \u00e9tait tout \u00e0 fait justifi\u00e9. C'est ennuyeux, parce que 99% des d\u00e9cideurs politiques ne font pas de r\u00e8gles de trois et, quoi qu'ils en disent, se reposent avant tout sur ce qu'ils lisent dans le journal... et parfois m\u00eame sur le seul titre !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6834527516108046336,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6834527516837863424,urn:li:activity:6834527516837863424,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 159, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6834527516837863424,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6834527516837863424,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, 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Le permafrost, qui d\u00e9signe le sol normalement gel\u00e9 en toutes saisons, \u00e0 quelques m\u00e8tres de profondeur, se met donc \u00e0 d\u00e9geler. A cette occasion, il peut lib\u00e9rer du m\u00e9thane de deux mani\u00e8res :\n- soit parce que l'activit\u00e9 de bact\u00e9ries ana\u00e9robies (dont le m\u00e9tabolisme se passe en dehors de la pr\u00e9sence d'oxyg\u00e8ne) augmente, et ces bact\u00e9ries \u00e9mettent du m\u00e9thane (ce sont les m\u00eames que celles que l'on trouve dans nos m\u00e9thaniseurs !),\n- soit parce que le m\u00e9thane qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 form\u00e9 au cours des \u00e8res g\u00e9ologiques - celui-l\u00e0 m\u00eame qui compose les gisements de gaz naturel, et qui \u00e9tait associ\u00e9 \u00e0 de la glace dans le permafrost - on parle d'hydrates de m\u00e9thane (https://lnkd.in/eXtnwu7h ) - est rel\u00e2ch\u00e9 par fonte de l'hydrate.\n\nL'article qui vient d'\u00eatre publi\u00e9 dans les Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) indique que la concentration atmosph\u00e9rique en m\u00e9thane a fortement augment\u00e9 au cours de l'\u00e9t\u00e9 2020 en Sib\u00e9rie, et que l'augmentation a \u00e9t\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement forte au-dessus des carbonates qui correspondent \u00e0 la formation g\u00e9ologique de m\u00e9thane.\n\nIl sugg\u00e8re en cons\u00e9quence que c'est le deuxi\u00e8me processus qui s'est fortement amplifi\u00e9 au cours de l'\u00e9t\u00e9 2020, et que cela pose la question de la quantit\u00e9 de m\u00e9thane qui pourrait \u00eatre rel\u00e2ch\u00e9e dans l'atmosph\u00e8re \u00e0 l'avenir. \n\nRappelons que le m\u00e9thane est, \u00e0 long terme (un si\u00e8cle), 30 fois plus r\u00e9chauffant que le CO2 \u00e0 poids \u00e9gal, mais que \u00e0 court terme c'est 80 fois plus. 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8713650640319942373)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: A Landivisiau, \u00ab la derni\u00e8re centrale \u00e9lectrique au gaz \u00bb sort de terre by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/pme-regions/bretagne/a-landivisiau-la-derniere-centrale-electrique-au-gaz-sort-de-terre-1338060" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A Landivisiau, \u00ab\u00a0la derni\u00e8re centrale \u00e9lectrique au gaz\u00a0\u00bb sort de terre" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6833050940367499264,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A notre tr\u00e8s modeste \u00e9chelle, la France a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 imiter un peu l'Allemagne, ou la Belgique : moins de nucl\u00e9aire, plus de capacit\u00e9s fossiles ! En face de la fermeture de Fessenheim, Cordemais (charbon) sera prolong\u00e9e, et la Bretagne, qui a beau accueillir plein d'\u00e9oliennes, va h\u00e9riter d'une centrale \u00e0 gaz.\n\nIl faut attendre la toute fin de cet article des Echos pour que le journaliste \u00e9voque le fait que cette centrale va \u00e9mettre du CO2 : 1 million de tonnes par an, soit 6% des \u00e9missions issues de la production \u00e9lectrique fran\u00e7aise en 2020.\n\nSi les propos rapport\u00e9s par le journal sont corrects, cela n'emp\u00eache pas la mairesse de Landivisiau de d\u00e9clarer que l'usine sera \u00ab\u00a0sans nuisance, sans pollution\u00a0\u00bb. Bon, elle va contribuer \u00e0 d\u00e9clencher des incendies, des canicules, des s\u00e9cheresses agricoles, des maladies, et d'autres plaisanteries dont on vient de parler (un peu) dans la presse, mais si on commence \u00e0 appeler cela \"pollution\", o\u00f9 va-t-on ?\n\nLe MWh de gaz est actuellement proche de 50 euros (https://lnkd.in/dAe9vbnd), et la tonne de CO2 aussi (https://lnkd.in/d_Q7ejjA ). Dans ces conditions (\u00e9videmment variables) le MWh \u00e9lectrique se prom\u00e8nerait aux alentours de 100 euros pour la seule partie \"combustible\". Du reste, \u00e0 l'instant, un pays tr\u00e8s d\u00e9pendant du gaz comme l'Italie conna\u00eet un prix spot de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 dans ces eaux l\u00e0 (https://lnkd.in/dfDBiw6J ).\n\nL'Espagne, qui a aussi fait le choix ENR+gaz (elle a construit 25 GW d'\u00e9olien en m\u00eame temps que 25 GW de gaz ces 20 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es), a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 rousp\u00e9ter aupr\u00e8s des instances europ\u00e9ennes que la partie gaz lui coutait trop cher (https://lnkd.in/debNJUAq ). \n\nM'enfin, comme dirait Gaston, si le but du jeu est d'\u00e9mettre moins de CO2, il est difficile de venir se plaindre que les r\u00e8gles du jeu aillent enfin en ce sens ? 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"commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6832953704732209152,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans le domaine comptable, la norme actuellement en vigueur pour les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s europ\u00e9ennes a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9dict\u00e9e par les am\u00e9ricains (l'IFRS). Le passage de l'ancienne mani\u00e8re de faire \u00e0 la nouvelle a eu pour principal avantage de fournir du travail aux grands de la comptabilit\u00e9 et de l'audit (d'origine am\u00e9ricaine pour l'essentiel), sans amener d'avantage particulier pour \u00e9clairer l'avenir. Cela a surtout amen\u00e9 de la volatilit\u00e9 dans les comptes, pour le plus grand bonheur des acteurs du monde financier (dont beaucoup aiment la volatilit\u00e9, qui leur am\u00e8ne des revenus).\n\nLe risque est grand qu'il en aille de m\u00eame dans le domaine ESG, et en particulier du climat. En effet, le monde financier europ\u00e9en - et fran\u00e7ais pour ce que j'en connais - a souvent fait exactement ce qu'il fallait pour que l'on se jette dans les bras des am\u00e9ricains (et des canadiens dans le cas pr\u00e9sent). \n\nChoix de prestataires - et donc de normes - am\u00e9ricains plut\u00f4t que fran\u00e7ais ou europ\u00e9ens pour \"noter\" les portefeuilles, prestations achet\u00e9es sous leur cout de revient (les prestataires extra-financiers, en perte permanente, se font alors racheter par les grands de l'information financi\u00e8re - am\u00e9ricains ou anglais - pour qui c'est une bouch\u00e9e de pain), voire s\u00e9lection par la Commission europ\u00e9enne d'une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine pour cr\u00e9er le r\u00e9f\u00e9rentiel applicable dans le monde bancaire europ\u00e9en ! (https://lnkd.in/dS_aEH4h ).\n\nCe n'est pas tout de clamer haut et fort que nous allons faire des choses pertinentes. Il faut aussi s'en donner les moyens. 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"textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "It\u2019s official: July was Earth\u2019s hottest month on record" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6832683029643714560,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La France n'est pas la totalit\u00e9 du monde : le record qui vient de tomber nous le rappelle. En effet, dans l'Hexagone, le mois de juillet 2021 a \u00e9t\u00e9 plut\u00f4t frais et pluvieux, tout \u00e0 l'oppos\u00e9 de ce qui s'est pass\u00e9, du moins pour les temp\u00e9ratures (et souvent pour l'humidit\u00e9 des sols) dans de tr\u00e8s nombreuses autres zones de la plan\u00e8te. \n\nDe ce fait, le mois \u00e9coul\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 le plus chaud jamais enregistr\u00e9 (pour la plan\u00e8te dans son ensemble) depuis le d\u00e9but des relev\u00e9s de temp\u00e9rature, il y a un si\u00e8cle et demi en gros.\n\nLes habitants du Canada, de l'ouest des USA, de toute l'Europe sauf la France et l'Espagne, de la Sib\u00e9rie, ou encore de l'est de l'Asie auront probablement moins besoin d'\u00eatre convaincus qu'un nouveau record a \u00e9t\u00e9 franchi (en attendant le suivant, qui ne va pas tarder).\n\nDu coup, on ne peut s'emp\u00eacher de se gratter un peu la t\u00eate quand on compare climat et covid.\n\nPour cette \u00e9pid\u00e9mie pas tr\u00e8s mortelle (les accidents de la route ou le tabac font chaque ann\u00e9e quelques millions de morts sur terre, donc dans les m\u00eames ordres de grandeur que les morts du covid) on peut mettre une \u00e9conomie en r\u00e9gime ralenti au nom du bien commun.\n\nComment expliquer qu'avec les \"crises climatiques\", spectaculaires et parfois meurtri\u00e8res, qui se multiplient, il n'y ait rien d'autre que des discours mais pas d'acte \"rapide et d\u00e9termin\u00e9\" en r\u00e9action ? La r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 cette question aiderait peut-\u00eatre \u00e0 avancer plus vite justement..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6832683029643714560,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6832683030147014656,urn:li:activity:6832683030147014656,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 88, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6832683030147014656,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6832683030147014656,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6832378493343432704,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les Echos publient une tribune appelant \u00e0 allonger la dur\u00e9e de vie des produits, et r\u00e9parer plut\u00f4t que jeter et recycler. Jusque l\u00e0, rien de tr\u00e8s extraordinaire pourrait-on dire, puisque c'est un point de vue classique chez les d\u00e9fenseurs de l'environnement. \n\nSauf que... allonger la dur\u00e9e de vie des produits, c'est les remplacer moins souvent. Cela signifie tout d'abord une innovation technique qui \"p\u00e9n\u00e8tre\" moins vite, puisque c'est \u00e0 l'occasion du remplacement d'un objet que nous pouvons avoir \u00e0 la place un objet plus performant. \n\nCela signifie ensuite que les fabricants vendent moins (puisque nous gardons plus longtemps). Souhaiter moins d'innovation technique et moins de chiffre d'affaires pour les industriels (puisque cette analyse s'applique \u00e0 tout ce que nous achetons), avouez que ca commence \u00e0 \u00eatre moins banal quand c'est dans un journal \u00e9conomique que l'on trouve cela, non ?\n\nOn notera au passage cette affirmation qui renvoie probablement \u00e0 quelque chose de fond\u00e9 : quand nous savons que c'est recyclable, nous avons moins de scrupules \u00e0 acheter pour jeter. 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Basis by ipcc.ch", "actionTarget": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6831480254310223872,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le #GIEC a d\u00e9voil\u00e9 lundi son nouveau rapport sur le changement climatique. \n\nSans surprise, les scientifiques confirment que chaque fraction de degr\u00e9 de r\u00e9chauffement suppl\u00e9mentaire fera cro\u00eetre les impacts de mani\u00e8re massive.\n\nLe rapport rappelle donc, entre autres, que sauf r\u00e9duction imm\u00e9diate, rapide et \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle de nos \u00e9missions de CO2 et autres gaz \u00e0 effet de serre (de l'ordre de 5 \u00e0 7% par an), il faut nous attendre \u00e0 un monde tr\u00e8s hostile dont nous ne voudrions ni pour nous, ni pour nos enfants. Pour \u00e9viter cela, il nous faut collectivement passer \u00e0 l\u2019action, d\u00e8s maintenant. \n\nLa plupart des\u00a0\u00a0entreprises se disent aujourd\u2019hui concern\u00e9es et engag\u00e9es dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Elles communiquent sur des programmes \u00ab\u00a0verts \u00bb, et (trop) nombreuses sont celles qui consid\u00e8rent presque avoir d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9gl\u00e9 la question. Pour autant, les \u00e9missions continuent d\u2019augmenter chaque ann\u00e9e sans inflexion. Les moyens accord\u00e9s \u00e0 la mise en place de strat\u00e9gies climat au sein des entreprises, et \u00e0 leur impl\u00e9mentation, f\u00fbt-ce au d\u00e9triment d'autres objectifs jusque l\u00e0 consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme pertinents, restent largement insuffisants, et la grande majorit\u00e9 des membres de comex n\u2019est toujours pas famili\u00e8re avec les enjeux et cons\u00e9quence li\u00e9s au changement climatique.\n\nLes entreprises, \"ordinaires\" et financi\u00e8res, doivent imp\u00e9rativement faire leur part pour limiter le r\u00e9chauffement. 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pompe \u00e0 chaleur, \u00e0 moins de viande et \u00e0 moins d'achats de trucs, machins, bidules et choses.\n\nEst-ce que le destin tout aussi funeste en pr\u00e9vision du manchot empereur nous motivera un peu plus ? 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Plus inattendu, cela am\u00e9liore la vitesse de livraison ! \n\nCela diminue aussi l'occupation d'espace au sol, bref si l'on oublie le malheur des personnes qui n'auront plus besoin de fabriquer des v\u00e9hicules d'une tonne et demie (qu'\u00e9videmment il ne faut pas oublier, mais il faut ne faut pas faire un point de blocage de ce sujet), il y a \u00e9norm\u00e9ment d'avantages \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9raliser cette pratique.\n\nPlus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, pour les transports en zone urbaine, le v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique, \"ordinaire\" ou en version cargo, est probablement un des \u00e9l\u00e9ments qui pourrait permettre une modification rapide des comportements, dans le sens d'une baisse qui, le GIEC vient de le rappeler, se doit d'\u00eatre non pas gentillette, mais massive dans les 10 ans qui viennent. 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The meeting to draft the..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6830549253341900800,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il est enfin accessible, ce fameux 6\u00e8 rapport du groupe 1 du GIEC. 3949 pages (excusez du peu) que pas un - je dis bien pas un - d\u00e9cideur ou journaliste ne lira en entier (et moi non plus du reste). En fait, il ne faut pas voir ce rapport comme un roman \u00e0 terminer avant la fin des vacances, mais plut\u00f4t comme une encyclop\u00e9die. \n\nA la condition de parler anglais (c'est \u00e9videmment une limite), d\u00e8s que l'on souhaite avoir la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 une question concernant le climat, on peut partir \u00e0 la p\u00eache dans ce document, et avec un peu de chance on aura, dans le d\u00e9tail, ce que la science dit sur la question.\n\nMais comme le GIEC sait parfaitement ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de, il a aussi pr\u00e9vu un \"r\u00e9sum\u00e9 pour d\u00e9cideurs\" de 42 pages. Il est certes aussi en anglais, mais l'essentiel de l'essentiel se trouve dans les graphiques, et ces derniers sont souvent tr\u00e8s parlants. Et, pour le coup, ce dernier est fait pour \u00eatre int\u00e9gralement lu... par tout d\u00e9cideur. \n\nIl ne devrait donc pas y avoir un chef d'entreprise, un journaliste (m\u00eame - et surtout - s'occupant d'autre chose que d'environnement), un enseignant, un politique qui, dans les 2 mois \u00e0 venir, n'ait pas lu ce document. 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Depuis sa cr\u00e9ation, les diff\u00e9rentes production de ce guichet unique de mise \u00e0 disposition de l'information scientifique n'ont, h\u00e9las, pas sp\u00e9cialement permis d'infl\u00e9chir la trajectoire d'\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre.\n\nPar contre, ce qui est s\u00fbr, c'est que celui qui sort aujourd'hui suscite un int\u00e9r\u00eat important, \u00e0 tel point qu'il est impossible, ce matin, de se connecter au serveur de cet organisme (http://www.ipcc.ch) !\n\nIl faudra donc s'armer d'un tout petit peu de patience avant de savoir ce que ce nouveau rapport a... de nouveau. \n\nEn attendant, je propose \u00e0 celles et ceux qui ne sont pas familiers du fonctionnement du GIEC un rappel de ce qu'est cet organisme, et de son mandat : https://lnkd.in/drng5Z6t\n\nRappelons que le GIEC est divis\u00e9 en 3 groupes. Le premier traite du fonctionnement du syst\u00e8me climatique et de la mani\u00e8re dont les activit\u00e9s humaines modifient ce fonctionnement. Il y est surtout question de physique, chimie, biologie, g\u00e9ologie, etc.\n\nLe second traite des impacts du changement climatique. Y figurera la synth\u00e8se de ce que peuvent publier des biologistes, m\u00e9decins, agronomes, sp\u00e9cialistes des infrastructures parfois, etc. \n\nLe troisi\u00e8me traite des marges de manoeuvre (\"transition\"), et est le \"royaume\" des \u00e9conomistes souvent. Le mandat du GIEC est d'\u00eatre \"policy relevant but not policy prescriptive\", c'est \u00e0 dire d'\u00e9clairer sans pr\u00e9coniser. 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"accessibilityText": "Open article: Une interview dans Socialter en juillet 2019 by jancovici.com", "actionTarget": "https://jancovici.com/publications-et-co/interviews/une-interview-dans-socialter-en-juillet-2019/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une interview dans Socialter en juillet 2019" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6829820043224735744,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a 2 ans, Socialter a publi\u00e9 une interview de votre serviteur dans un num\u00e9ro hors s\u00e9rie intitul\u00e9 \"L'avenir sera low-tech\". Une phrase de cette interview, portant sur la question d\u00e9mographique, a \u00e9t\u00e9 extraite par plusieurs personnes (dont Laurent Alexandre, Luc Ferry, et d'autres en suivant) de cette interview, et a \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9e pour me faire dire des choses que j'ai jamais ni dites ni \u00e9crites (qu'il fallait euthanasier les vieux, zigouiller les plus de 65 ans, et j'en passe).\n\nPour permettre \u00e0 chacun d'en juger, et par ailleurs replacer cette phrase dans son contexte, j'ai d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de publier l'int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 de l'interview sur mon site personnel.\n\nLa d\u00e9claration qui a fait tant sursauter quelques personnes est en lien direct avec l'\u00e9quation de Kaya (https://lnkd.in/gAthJhJ ) qui sous-tend une partie des propos tenus pendant cette interview." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6829820043224735744,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Un laminoir de 500.000 tonnes par an ne demande pas beaucoup moins d'emplois qu'un laminoir de 5 millions de tonnes. Une chaine automobile d\u00e9pend plus du nombre de robots que d'ouvriers pour produire un nombre donn\u00e9 de voitures par an. Etc\n\nLa production industrielle fran\u00e7aise, qui d\u00e9pend donc avant tout du nombre de machines en service dans l'industrie, donc de l'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, a en fait quasiment doubl\u00e9 de 1974 jusqu'en 2007. Nous avons certes produit moins de textile et de machines \u00e0 laver, mais plus d'avions, de trains, ou... de nucl\u00e9aire :).\n\nQue s'est-il pass\u00e9 en 2007 ? Le p\u00e9trole conventionnel mondial est pass\u00e9 par son pic, ce qui a contraint l'approvisionnement fran\u00e7ais \u00e0 la baisse. Le gaz de la Mer du Nord est pass\u00e9 par son pic en 2005, ce qui a aussi contraint l'approvisionnement fran\u00e7ais \u00e0 la baisse. Enfin le charbon \u00e9tait en d\u00e9clin depuis bien avant (pour causes g\u00e9ologiques, pas du tout climatiques). Ajoutons-y un nucl\u00e9aire limit\u00e9 par l'opinion et des renouvelables modernes limit\u00e9es par la physique, et au total l'approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fran\u00e7ais diminue - pour l'essentiel de fa\u00e7on contrainte - depuis 2006. \n\nMoins d'\u00e9nergie, c'est moins de machines au travail, et donc une production industrielle qui peine. Et on ne voit pas bien pourquoi, \u00e0 l'avenir, avec un approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique qui va continuer \u00e0 baisser, cette production repartirait \u00e0 la hausse. Il faudrait donc r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir l'avenir de notre pays avec une production mat\u00e9rielle en baisse. On attend encore les raisonnements \u00e9conomiques \"acad\u00e9miques\" ou politiques qui correspondent \u00e0 ce pr\u00e9requis..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6829333875538313216,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6829333876129710080,urn:li:activity:6829333876129710080,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 80, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6829333876129710080,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6829333876129710080,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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doucement (c'est le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne lent qui se produit d\u00e9sormais dans nombre de pays de l'OCDE : Japon, Europe...), soit parce que, une ann\u00e9e donn\u00e9e, certaines machines ne peuvent plus \u00eatre pilot\u00e9es par les hommes qui leur sont n\u00e9cessaires, et \u00e0 ce moment la production correspondante n'est plus l\u00e0.\n\nC'est ce 2\u00e8 processus qui a pris place dans le monde en 2020. Cette ann\u00e9e l\u00e0, moins de gens \"au travail\" (c'est \u00e0 dire pilotant une machine, comme moi \u00e0 l'instant, puisque je pilote mon ordinateur et indirectement toutes les machines qui achemineront l'information aux lecteurs) a engendr\u00e9 un parc de machine en fonctionnement moins important. Une des cons\u00e9quences est que la \"consommation d'\u00e9nergie\" (qui est celle des machines, pas des humains) a baiss\u00e9.\n\nEt, de m\u00eame que, \u00e0 la hausse, la relation entre PIB et \u00e9nergie est historiquement quasi-proportionnelle, la baisse l'a \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi, comme on peut le voir sur ce graphique r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par votre serviteur avec des donn\u00e9es BP Statistical Review (\u00e9nergie) et World Bank (PIB).\n\nSachant qu'en 2020 les \u00e9missions ont baiss\u00e9 au bon rythme pour respecter l'accord de Paris (-5%), on voit bien - certes sur une ann\u00e9e - que, malgr\u00e9 le d\u00e9veloppement des sources non carbon\u00e9es (qui lui n'a pas faibli), marier croissance et pr\u00e9servation du climat semble un pari impossible \u00e0 tenir. \n\nIl reste juste \u00e0 en convaincre 7,4 milliards d'individus - dont tous les \u00e9diles de la Commission, et tous les gouvernements nationaux - et \u00e0 s'organiser en cons\u00e9quence sans trop de bobos...." 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Pour vous aider \u00e0 faire face aux confusions et fausses promesses autour de la neutralit\u00e9 carbone (dont a pas fini d'entendre parler!), voici une m\u00e9thode..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Neutralit\u00e9 carbone : Guide de survie (Climat #6)" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6828725411271192576,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "OGPT. Le moyen mn\u00e9motechnique est infaillible ! En l'esp\u00e8ce, il ne s'agit pas de faire une blague de coll\u00e9gien, mais de fournir une grille de lecture pour prendre un peu de hauteur sur les revendications de neutralit\u00e9 des entreprises, lesquelles vont surement redoubler de vigueur \u00e0 la rentr\u00e9e, apr\u00e8s que le climat se soit rappel\u00e9 \u00e0 notre bon souvenir pendant l'\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nCette petite vid\u00e9o de 15 minutes ne dit pas une chose, qui est qu'une revendication de neutralit\u00e9 d'une entreprise ne peut pas se justifier scientifiquement (https://lnkd.in/db7JzB2q ), mais en dit beaucoup d'autres, permettant de mieux comprendre toutes les questions de m\u00e9thode qui se posent quand on entend s'int\u00e9resser \u00e0 la question des sources et des puits pour les gaz \u00e0 effet de serre.\n\nPas une lecture estivale, donc, mais un visionnage estival, on peut le dire !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6828725411271192576,fr)" }, 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rythme, quelles que soient les d\u00e9clarations des pays et des entreprises pour expliquer que nous allons r\u00e9gler le probl\u00e8me.\n\nCette tribune parue dans Investir (du groupe Les Echos) rappelle que pour le moment les d\u00e9clarations n'ont jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 suivies d'actes \u00e0 la bonne \u00e9chelle, et que nous continuons \u00e0 \"regarder ailleurs\", pour reprendre la c\u00e9l\u00e8bre citation de Chirac.\n\nEn particulier, \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s aucune entreprise n'a mis en oeuvre les deux premi\u00e8res mesures qui sont pourtant indispensables pour s'attaquer \u00e0 la question : former l'ensemble de ses cadres \u00e0 la compr\u00e9hension du probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter, et d\u00e9ployer la m\u00e9trique (la comptabilit\u00e9 carbone) qui permet de faire l'\u00e9tat des lieux, puis de d\u00e9finir une strat\u00e9gie, des objectifs, et des actions, tout en \u00e9tant capable de faire \u00e0 tout moment des arbitrages par la suite.\n\nDans l'esprit (car en pratique ca ne serait pas tr\u00e8s facile \u00e0 encadrer !), la loi climat aurait pu pr\u00e9voir l'interdiction de communiquer sur le climat - que ce soit en communication d'entreprise ou dans les publicit\u00e9s - pour toute entreprise qui n'est pas pass\u00e9e par ces \u00e9tapes. \n\nEn effet, aujourd'hui, \"l\u2019essentiel des membres de comex des entreprises n\u2019est toujours pas capable de d\u00e9crire le dossier physique du changement climatique avec pr\u00e9cision. 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production \u00e9lectrique fran\u00e7aise \u00e9tait de 10% \u00e0 la fin des ann\u00e9es 1980. En 2020, et comme toutes les ann\u00e9es depuis en gros, elle est... de 10% (sur le graphique ci-dessous, r\u00e9alis\u00e9 avec les donn\u00e9es de BP Statistical Review, on voit mieux la part \"non fossile\", stable \u00e0 90% depuis 35 ans).\n\nLa France avait donc d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 l'essentiel de son \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 bien avant que les \u00e9missions de CO2 ne fassent la une des m\u00e9dia, pour environ 150 milliards d'euros en cout historique.\n\nDepuis le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000, c'est \u00e0 dire quand le nucl\u00e9aire a cess\u00e9 d'\u00eatre consensuel quel que soit le bord politique (le soutien au nucl\u00e9aire est devenu depuis plut\u00f4t un marqueur de droite), le d\u00e9veloppement de l'\u00e9olien et du solaire (pour aussi 150 milliards environ) n'a pas permis de d\u00e9passer les 90% d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 non fossile, mais a juste compens\u00e9 l'\u00e9rosion du nucl\u00e9aire.\n\nDe l\u00e0, d'aucuns disent que \"si on n'avait pas d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 les ENR, la part fossile aurait augment\u00e9\", et d'autres que \"si on avait \u00e9t\u00e9 constant dans le soutien au nucl\u00e9aire, nous aurions pu mettre nos comp\u00e9tences et notre temps (donc nos milliards) au service de la d\u00e9carbonation d'autre chose, au lieu de revenir sur un probl\u00e8me presque r\u00e9gl\u00e9\".\n\nOn remarque le \"soubresaut covid\", qui se voit sur de nombreuses autres courbes concernant l'\u00e9nergie (il y en aura !), n'est pas du tout pr\u00e9sent sur celle ci." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6827985207912632320,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6827985208638226432,urn:li:activity:6827985208638226432,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 32, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2021/07/24/les-defis-de-l-anthropocene-au-dela-des-questions-de-financement-doivent-constituer-la-toile-de-fond-a-notre-reflexion_6089398_3232.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00ab\u00a0Les d\u00e9fis de l\u2019anthropoc\u00e8ne au-del\u00e0 des questions de financement doivent constituer la toile de fond \u00e0 notre r\u00e9flexion\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6827621944263753728,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 306, "length": 14, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean", "lastName": "Colcombet", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABD4DrAB8hEYutH-TEQLJPMcXIA5LojOXW0", "occupation": "Inra Scientist (Plant Genomic Research Unit, Evry, France)", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:284692144", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAABD4DrAB8hEYutH-TEQLJPMcXIA5LojOXW0", "publicIdentifier": "jean-colcombet-4944147b", "trackingId": "kM1qU35GRvesvyEbmvxtNQ==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Quand il est question de transports, de logements ou d'industrie, chacun(e) voit bien qu'il peut y avoir des actions qui sont compatibles avec une baisse des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, et d'autres qui le sont moins.\n\nMais quand il est question de recherche ? La question se pose tout autant, selon Jean Colcombet, auteur d'une tribune r\u00e9cemment parue dans Le Monde (avec, comme souvent pour ce journal, un titre qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 chang\u00e9 par la r\u00e9daction, sans demander son avis \u00e0 l'auteur, et sans en informer le lectorat, raison pour laquelle il est si mauvais - le titre, pas l'article :) ).\n\nDans un monde en d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, et donc en contraction de moyens mat\u00e9riels, il faudra se poser plus encore la question de savoir quelle recherche nous entendons privil\u00e9gier, car il n'y en aura pas pour tout le monde. C'est bien parce que les machines assurent \u00e0 notre place les fonctions productives \"mat\u00e9rielles\" que cela nous a lib\u00e9r\u00e9 du temps pour avoir, entre autres, des activit\u00e9s de recherche. \n\nDisons le autrement : dans un monde en d\u00e9crue \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, il est peu probable que les moyens pour la recherche augmentent. C'est peut-\u00eatre d\u00e9sagr\u00e9able \u00e0 entendre, mais il serait sage de s'organiser en cons\u00e9quence. Les premiers \u00e0 se poser la question de \"comment continuer \u00e0 \u00eatre utiles dans ce contexte\", et \"\u00e0 quoi utiliser les moyens tant qu'il y en a encore\" devraient \u00eatre les chercheurs eux-m\u00eames, plaide l'auteur de la tribune." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6827621944263753728,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6827621944750313472,urn:li:activity:6827621944750313472,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 26, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6827621944750313472,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6827621944750313472,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": 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Pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 d'un titre presque digne d'un film d'horreur, Les Echos consacrent un article aux \"catastrophes\" survenant aux USA : s\u00e9cheresse hors norme, incendies majeurs, etc.\n\nOn tremble. On se dit que notre maison commune (la plan\u00e8te terre) est en train de se fissurer ici, de prendre l'eau l\u00e0, de se vider de ses habitants non humains ailleurs, et que tout cela sent mauvais pour nous.\n\nMais \u00e0 la fin de l'article, on trouve cette phrase \"Le Bureau du Budget, une agence d\u00e9pendant du Congr\u00e8s, estimait r\u00e9cemment que le changement climatique pourrait faire perdre un point de PIB aux Etats-Unis d'ici \u00e0 2050\". \n\nComme le m\u00eame bureau consid\u00e8re probablement que d'ici \u00e0 2050 le PIB va cro\u00eetre d'au moins 1,5% par an, cela signifie qu'\u00e0 cause du changement climatique le PIB US de 2050 n'aura cru que de 54% au lieu de 53% par rapport \u00e0 maintenant. Ouf, on respire. Pas si m\u00e9chant, le changement climatique !\n\nNB : c'est \u00e9videmment du second degr\u00e9. En fait aucun mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique ne peut pr\u00e9voir de dommages \u00e0 cause du changement climatique, pour une raison simple : le climat - ou sa stabilit\u00e9 plutot - n'est pas un facteur de production dans ces mod\u00e8les (ni aucune ressource naturelle du reste). Si le climat n'est pas repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 comme facteur de production, on ne peut \u00e9videmment pas en d\u00e9duire la cons\u00e9quence d'un dommage au climat sur l'\u00e9conomie autrement que par \"l'envie qu'en a le mod\u00e9lisateur\"." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6827260986857164800,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6827260987373064192,urn:li:activity:6827260987373064192,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 52, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6827260987373064192,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6827260987373064192,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 chinoise \u00e9tait de plus de 80% en 2007. En 2020, elle est descendue \u00e0 63%. Cette baisse est due \u00e0 la mont\u00e9e en puissance des sources \"non carbon\u00e9es\", pour lesquelles la Chine a enregistr\u00e9, pour chacune d'elles, la plus forte progression mondiale :\n- l'hydro : la production est pass\u00e9e de 485 \u00e0 1322 TWh par an sur la p\u00e9riode (2/3 de l'incr\u00e9ment mondial dans ce seul pays),\n- l'\u00e9olien (la Chine produit quasiment un tiers du total mondial et dispose du premier parc install\u00e9), pass\u00e9 de 5 \u00e0 467 TWh par an,\n- le nucl\u00e9aire : la production est pass\u00e9e de 62 \u00e0 366 TWh par an sur la p\u00e9riode (la Chine a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 la France en production en 2020)\n- le solaire (la Chine produit quasiment un tiers du total mondial et dispose du premier parc install\u00e9), pass\u00e9 de 0 \u00e0 260 TWh par an.\n\nA l'aune des crit\u00e8res de la Commission, qui ne raisonne qu'en part d'ENR dans la production, ce pays serait donc \"sur la bonne voie\" pour la d\u00e9carbonation.\n\nMalheureusement non : dans le m\u00eame temps la production au charbon a quasiment doubl\u00e9, passant de 2660 \u00e0 4900 TWh par an. Les \u00e9missions de la production \u00e9lectrique ont donc fortement augment\u00e9. \n\nL'exemple chinois montre que de se fixer des objectifs en % ne garantit pas le r\u00e9sultat final.\n\nPar ailleurs, et plus important peut-\u00eatre, nous avons actuellement fait la preuve que nous pouvons, mondialement, augmenter la part d'ENR (hydro inclus) dans un contexte o\u00f9 le fossile augmente aussi, et donc la productivit\u00e9 industrielle mondiale (puisque ce sont les machines - essentiellement fossiles - qui assurent cette productivit\u00e9), laquelle productivit\u00e9 est ce qui permet les baisses de cout.\n\nNB : se limiter \u00e0 un seul pays pour cette analyse est ignorer la \"correction\" li\u00e9e au commerce international, surtout que l'essentiel des panneaux solaires est fabriqu\u00e9 en Chine, et une part croissante des \u00e9oliennes ou de leurs composantes. \n\nNous ne pouvons pas en d\u00e9duire sans autre forme de proc\u00e8s que nous aurons la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 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n'est pas grave de boire 2 litres de whisky par jour parce que la bouteille est faite en verre recyclable.\n\nCette mani\u00e8re de pr\u00e9senter l'information montre une chose malheureusement courante dans le monde m\u00e9diatique : la grande difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 comprendre ce qu'est un syst\u00e8me, o\u00f9 il est impossible d'avoir un morceau sans avoir le reste. En pareil cas, cela n'a pas de sens de d\u00e9tacher une \u00e9tape pour ne regarder que ses qualit\u00e9s et d\u00e9fauts, sans regarder le processus d'ensemble dont elle d\u00e9pend. \n\nA la d\u00e9charge des journalistes, les entreprises et les politiques leur servent quasi-syst\u00e9matique une information enjoliv\u00e9e parce que partielle. Mais justement, la valeur ajout\u00e9e du m\u00e9tier ne devrait-elle pas \u00eatre la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 trouver les autres pi\u00e8ces du puzzle pour livrer une image compl\u00e8te ?\n\nEn tous cas, sur ce cas pr\u00e9cis, tout est peut-\u00eatre plus clair, pour faire \u00e9cho au slogan de cette chaine d'info, mais pas plus exact !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6826551202189201408,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6826551202881265664,urn:li:activity:6826551202881265664,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 198, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6826551202881265664,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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probl\u00e8mes d'ici peu pour boucler les fins de mois ?\n\nCette tribune publi\u00e9e par l'Express il y a une grosse semaine tente d'expliquer pourquoi, en mati\u00e8re de p\u00e9trole, la sale manie qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 prise d'exprimer les r\u00e9serves (la totalit\u00e9 de ce qui pourrait \u00eatre produit) en multiple de la production de l'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re nous a donn\u00e9 l'illusion que nous \u00e9tions tranquilles pour une dur\u00e9e \u00e9quivalente, alors que ce n'est pas le cas.\n\nCertes, les d\u00e9clarations politiques expliquant que nous allons nous passer de p\u00e9trole se multiplient ici et l\u00e0. Il n'emp\u00eache, depuis la naissance de la Convention Climat en 1992 \u00e0 Rio, qui nous incitait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 \"devenir neutres\", la consommation d'or noir a augment\u00e9 de 30% dans le monde (chute de 2020 incluse). Pour le moment, nous n'avons pas trouv\u00e9 la martingale du sevrage sans r\u00e9cession. Et il n'est pas s\u00fbr qu'\u00e0 l'avenir nous y parvenions si facilement." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6826073678015410177,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6826073678720057344,urn:li:activity:6826073678720057344,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 36, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6826073678720057344,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6826073678720057344,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Mais quand il s'agit de lutter contre le changement climatique, le bon \u00e9talon est la part d'\u00e9nergies d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es dans le total utilis\u00e9 dans le pays (et pas juste pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e9videmment).\n\nLe graphique ci-dessous, r\u00e9alis\u00e9 avec les donn\u00e9es 2020 issues de BP Statistical Review, donne le classement mondial des pays en fonction de la part d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e de leur consommation d'\u00e9nergie primaire. Certes la convention pour l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e est toujours discutable, mais ci-dessous c'est l'\u00e9quivalent primaire pour tout le monde, et donc elle favorise de la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re le nucl\u00e9aire que l'hydro ou l'\u00e9olien.\n\nLe gagnant mondial de la d\u00e9carbonation domestique est la Norv\u00e8ge... qui perdrait pourtant haut la main si on lui imputait le p\u00e9trole qu'elle vend aux autres ! \n\nEn Europe, les 5 premiers du classement ont tous du nucl\u00e9aire dans leur mix. Le Danemark, \"champion de l'\u00e9olien\", arrive 20 points derri\u00e8re notre pays, et l'Allemagne est plus loin encore. \n\nSuggestion pour nos amis journalistes : vous devriez regarder deux choses et deux choses seulement. La quantit\u00e9 de combustibles fossiles utilis\u00e9s en valeur absolue, et la part de d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 dans le mix, toutes sources confondues. 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C'est la th\u00e8se d\u00e9fendue dans cet article par un doctorant en communication, qui soutient que ce qui nous fait bouger est l'exemple. \n\nDe ma propre exp\u00e9rience, il n'a pas tort... mais pas compl\u00e8tement raison non plus. Disons que faire peur n'est pas suffisant. 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Mais ce ne fut pas le cas en Chine, qui a augment\u00e9 son utilisation de ce combustible de 0,6%. Du coup, la Chine a utilis\u00e9 l'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re 55% du charbon mondial.\n\nLe deuxi\u00e8me utilisateur de houille au monde, l'Inde, avec 12% du total mondial, a par contre baiss\u00e9 sa consommation. 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la course technologique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6824612688694411264,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans une intervention r\u00e9alis\u00e9e en 2016 pour le compte de l'Institut National des Sciences et Techniques Nucl\u00e9aires (https://lnkd.in/dqQWBfC ) j'avais indiqu\u00e9 (\u00e0 1h33') que, tant qu'il existerait une humanit\u00e9 \"industrialis\u00e9e\", il y aurait du nucl\u00e9aire, et que la seule question \u00e9tait de savoir si il serait fran\u00e7ais en France, chinois en France, ou chinois en Chine.\n\nEn ce qui concerne le nucl\u00e9aire de 4\u00e8 g\u00e9n\u00e9ration, le seul qui puisse devenir vraiment \"durable\" (en exploitant tout l'uranium et pas juste son isotope 235, qui en repr\u00e9sente 0,7%, ou le thorium, plus abondant que l'uranium), c'est bien parti pour que ce soit l'une des deux derni\u00e8res options qui se r\u00e9alise.\n\nLes deux pays qui aujourd'hui avancent le plus vite sur ce nucl\u00e9aire sont la Chine et la Russie, deux pays avec un \u00e9tat fort et constant sur ce sujet (on peut regretter pour d'autres aspects que ce soit un \u00e9tat fort, \u00e0 ce stade ce n'est pas un jugement de valeur, mais une observation).\n\nIncidemment, si le nucl\u00e9aire mondial avait \u00e9t\u00e9 soutenu depuis 20 ans avec la m\u00eame quantit\u00e9 d'argent (des milliers de milliards de dollars) que \u00e9olien et solaire, il est probable que nous ne serions pas loin de pouvoir d\u00e9ployer rapidement des r\u00e9acteurs de 4\u00e8 g\u00e9n\u00e9ration pour remplacer le charbon puis le gaz (car le but du jeu est bien de remplacer le charbon puis le gaz).\n\nNous avons pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9 parier sur des dispositifs exploitant des sources d'\u00e9nergie diffuses et non pilotables (vent et soleil), dont incidemment la Chine est aussi notre premier (voire quasi-unique pour le solaire) fournisseur, en laissant gentiment la voie libre \u00e0 l'Empire du milieu et aux russes. Esp\u00e9rons que le moment venu ils accepteront de nous en faire un peu profiter sans demander de contreparties trop m\u00e9chantes..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6824612688694411264,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6824612690909007872,urn:li:activity:6824612690909007872,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 78, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6824612690909007872,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6824612690909007872,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8203017021671150334)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Comment le r\u00e9chauffement climatique va bouleverser le transport a\u00e9rien by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/tourisme-transport/comment-le-rechauffement-climatique-va-bouleverser-le-transport-aerien-1333632#" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Comment le r\u00e9chauffement climatique va bouleverser le transport a\u00e9rien" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6824247647713427457,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le transport a\u00e9rien et le climat est souvent vu comme une histoire avec un seul lien de causalit\u00e9 : les avions \u00e9mettent des gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, et donc il faut limiter leur nombre si nous voulons limiter les \u00e9missions, sachant que la diffusion des novations techniques ne peut pas aller au bon rythme pour assurer une baisse de 5% par an des \u00e9missions en valeur absolue (rythme demand\u00e9 pour respecter la limite des 2\u00b0C, augmentation pour laquelle il est n\u00e9anmoins possible que des \u00e9v\u00e9nements comme celui r\u00e9cemment survenu au Canada se reproduisent tous les 5 \u00e0 10 ans : https://lnkd.in/d7gTwYv ).\n\nMais l'histoire va aussi dans l'autre sens : comme pour toutes les activit\u00e9s humaines, la d\u00e9rive climatique va impacter le secteur a\u00e9rien. Quelques exemples :\n- un air plus chaud est moins dense : \u00e0 longueur de piste donn\u00e9e, un avion devra \u00eatre plus l\u00e9ger au d\u00e9collage, et donc embarquer moins de charge (ce qui incidemment augmente la quantit\u00e9 de carburant par passager !)\n- la convection de l'air s'intensifie et fait remonter les turbulences au niveau des altitudes de croisi\u00e8re, augmentant le risque d'accident, m\u00eame s'il reste faible,\n- beaucoup d'a\u00e9roports sont situ\u00e9s pr\u00e8s du trait de c\u00f4te, et pourront donc faire l'objet de submersions marines\n- certaines destinations touristiques deviendront moins pris\u00e9es parce que les conditions climatiques locales deviendront trop d\u00e9sagr\u00e9ables...\n\nC'est une illustration de plus que le \"toujours plus\" ne d\u00e9pend pas que de notre volont\u00e9. La reconversion partielle de Toulouse sera un d\u00e9fi, dans tous les cas de figure. Le plus t\u00f4t on s'y attaque, le mieux ce sera sur le plan social ; c'est ce qui figurait explicitement dans le rapport \"Voler en 2050\" publi\u00e9 par The Shift Project/Supaero Decarbo en mars dernier : https://lnkd.in/d3h_4QA" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6824247647713427457,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6824247648233504768,urn:li:activity:6824247648233504768,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 57, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6824247648233504768,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6824247648233504768,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": 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virtually impossible without human-caused climate change" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6823933588891820032,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le \"World Weather Attribution Initiative\" a \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9, en 2014, par des scientifiques du climat d'Oxford (Grande Bretagne), KNMI (Pays-Bas), IPSL/LSCE (France), Princeton & NCAR (Etats Unis), ETH Zurich (Suisse), IIT Delhi (Inde) et des sp\u00e9cialistes des impacts du Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC), pour pouvoir fournir aux media un avis rapide sur le lien possible entre un \u00e9v\u00e9nement extr\u00eame et le changement climatique.\n\nEn effet, \u00e0 chaque fois que surviennent une inondation ou une vague de chaleur, un ouragan ou m\u00eame une temp\u00eate de neige, la question est imm\u00e9diatement pos\u00e9e de savoir si cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement aurait eu lieu dans un climat non modifi\u00e9, et les scientifiques ont consid\u00e9r\u00e9 qu'il \u00e9tait pertinent de pouvoir fournir rapidement un avis.\n\nLa m\u00e9thode employ\u00e9e par ce groupe de scientifiques repose essentiellement sur la fr\u00e9quence compar\u00e9e de l'\u00e9v\u00e9nement extr\u00eame qui vient de survenir avec le climat que nous avons modifi\u00e9 et avec un climat qui ne l'aurait pas \u00e9t\u00e9 par les \u00e9missions humaines.\n\nPour la vague de chaleur qui vient de frapper le Canada, la r\u00e9ponse est tr\u00e8s claire : il aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 \"virtuellement impossible\" qu'une telle vague de chaleur survienne avec un climat non \"d\u00e9form\u00e9\" par nos \u00e9missions.\n\nEt, dans un monde r\u00e9chauff\u00e9 de 2\u00b0C par rapport \u00e0 la p\u00e9riode pr\u00e9-industrielle, ce genre d'\u00e9v\u00e9nement pourrait survenir tous les 5 \u00e0 10 ans. Les scientifiques se posent en outre la question de savoir si l'\u00e9volution climatique ne vient pas de franchir un seuil, avec apparition de \"non lin\u00e9arit\u00e9s\" qui n'existaient pas avant, et donc un risque encore plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 que ce que les mod\u00e8les simulent.\n\nEn effet, il faut rappeler une chose : une grande incertitude n'est pas une incitation \u00e0 l'inaction \"parce qu'on ne sait pas bien et donc ce n'est pas utile de s'affoler\". C'est aussi l'impossibilit\u00e9 de mettre une borne sup\u00e9rieure aux dommages possibles, et donc un grand risque. Nous commen\u00e7ons \u00e0 le constater \u00e0 nos d\u00e9pends." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6823933588891820032,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272,urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 14, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272", "threadId": "activity:6823933589776822272", "allowedCommentersScope": "ALL", "totalSocialActivityCounts": { "socialDetailEntityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272", "urn": "urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272", "numComments": 22, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272", "reactionTypeCounts": [ { "count": 283, "reactionType": "LIKE" }, { "count": 36, "reactionType": "INTEREST" }, { "count": 30, "reactionType": "MAYBE" }, { "count": 8, "reactionType": "APPRECIATION" }, { "count": 4, "reactionType": "PRAISE" }, { "count": 1, "reactionType": "EMPATHY" } ], "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272", "numLikes": 362, "liked": false }, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6823933589776822272", "commentingDisabled": false, "likes": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 362, "links": [] }, "elements": [] } } }, { "actor": { "urn": "urn:li:member:101316862", "image": { "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "attributes": [ { "sourceType": "PROFILE_PICTURE", "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean-Marc", "lastName": "Jancovici", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAYJ-P4B8XcfHOiVTdmiAyYGfvxBRs3J_Ug", "occupation": "Founding Partner, Carbone 4 - 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En particulier, la commission mixte paritaire a restaur\u00e9 le \"permis de greenwasher\" que les s\u00e9nateurs avaient supprim\u00e9.\n\nLe texte du S\u00e9nat comportait en effet cette disposition :\n\n\u00ab\u00a0\u00ab Art. L. 229\u201165. \u2013 Il est interdit de faire figurer sur un produit, sur son emballage, ainsi que dans une publicit\u00e9 faisant la promotion d\u2019un produit ou d\u2019un service, toute formulation visant \u00e0 indiquer que le produit, le service ou l\u2019activit\u00e9 du fabricant est neutre en carbone ou d\u00e9pourvu de cons\u00e9quence n\u00e9gative sur le climat, \u00e0 l\u2019exception des formulations s\u2019appuyant sur des certifications fond\u00e9es sur des normes et standards reconnus aux niveaux fran\u00e7ais, europ\u00e9en et international. \u00bb\n\nApr\u00e8s la commission mixte paritaire, on trouve :\n\n\u00ab Il est interdit d\u2019affirmer dans une publicit\u00e9 qu\u2019un produit ou un service est neutre en carbone, ou d\u2019employer toute formulation de signification ou de port\u00e9e \u00e9quivalente, \u00e0 moins que l\u2019annonceur rende ais\u00e9ment disponible au public les \u00e9l\u00e9ments suivants :\n \n \u00ab 1\u00b0 Un bilan d\u2019\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre int\u00e9grant les \u00e9missions directes et indirectes du produit ou service ;\n \n \u00ab 2\u00b0 La d\u00e9marche gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 laquelle les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre du produit ou service sont prioritairement \u00e9vit\u00e9es, puis r\u00e9duites et enfin compens\u00e9es. La trajectoire de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre est d\u00e9crite \u00e0 l\u2019aide d\u2019objectifs de progr\u00e8s annuels quantifi\u00e9s ;\n \n \u00ab 3\u00b0 Les modalit\u00e9s de compensation des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre r\u00e9siduelles respectant des standards minimums d\u00e9finis par d\u00e9cret.\n\nDit autrement, si une entreprise d\u00e9clare avoir \"compens\u00e9\", elle peut affirmer que du carburant routier, un h\u00e9bergement cloud, un paquet de filets de poisson surgel\u00e9s, un camion, ou un vol en avion sont \"neutres en carbone\", alors que la science dit explicitement que la neutralit\u00e9 ne peut pas exister au niveau d'une entreprise, et a fortiori d'un produit.\n\nIl serait int\u00e9ressant de savoir quel a \u00e9t\u00e9 le lobby \u00e0 l'oeuvre derri\u00e8re cette marche arri\u00e8re toute des parlementaires (car ils n'ont pas d\u00e9cid\u00e9 cela de leur propre initiative, c'est \u00e9vident !)." }, 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carbone : un arbre mature absorbe environ 20 kg de CO2 par an, et donc 3 milliards d'arbres absorberaient \u00e0 terme 60 millions de tonnes de CO2 par an (les \u00e9missions europ\u00e9ennes de CO2 pr\u00e9-covid \u00e9taient de 3500 millions de tonnes par an ; les puits c'est donc indispensable, mais pas suffisant !).\n\nEn fait, compte tenu d'un taux de survie des plants qui va de 13% \u00e0 55%, il faudrait en planter plut\u00f4t 10 milliards. Par ailleurs :\n\n- quelles esp\u00e8ces planter, sachant qu'en 2070 le climat ne permettra pas la survie de toutes les esp\u00e8ces install\u00e9es actuellement ? La moiti\u00e9 des for\u00eats europ\u00e9ennes pourraient ne plus \"accepter\" que du ch\u00eane vert, selon un article de Nature de 2013 (https://lnkd.in/dKcCNpH ), ce qui signifie que les autres esp\u00e8ces mourront de chaud et de soif... et que se pose aussi la question de la gestion des for\u00eats existantes (le puits associ\u00e9 risque de baisser bien plus vite qu'on ne le pense si on regarde ce qui se passe actuellement en Amazonie : https://lnkd.in/dXUEQFB )\n\n- o\u00f9 les planter ? On peut viser les surfaces agricoles en d\u00e9prise, les espaces urbains et p\u00e9riurbains (rien que l\u00e0 on peut en mettre 2 milliards dit la Commission, et les avantages associ\u00e9s sont nombreux), les bords d'infrastructures, les champs (agroforesterie)...\n\n- et quels objectifs fixer aux pays ? Car ils vont avoir des objectifs contraignants (ce qui est une bonne chose sur le papier, apr\u00e8s il faudra voir les d\u00e9tails).\n\nLa for\u00eat, c'est aussi - comme en Amazonie - un enjeu de conservation. 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"Les 84 articles de la loi climat viennent de sortir de la commission mixte paritaire : https://lnkd.in/dQV-5ms\n\nIl faudra probablement un peu de temps pour savoir si l'ensemble des dispositions est compatible avec une baisse annuelle des \u00e9missions de 5% par an dans le monde, ce qui figure implicitement en t\u00eate de ce projet de loi avec la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 l'accord de Paris. \n\nIl faudra aussi un peu de temps pour savoir si le chapitre \"Adapter les territoires aux effets du d\u00e9r\u00e8glement climatique\" est \u00e0 la hauteur de ce qui nous attend au titre de la d\u00e9rive climatique (une lecture en diagonale montre que c'est peu probable, et donc que nous allons au-devant de surprises pour lesquelles nous seront peu ou pas pr\u00e9par\u00e9s).\n\nIl faudra d'autant plus de temps que la loi renvoie l'\u00e9valuation de l'impact de ses mesures \u00e0 la Cour des comptes et au Haut conseil pour le climat (incidemment ce dernier n'aura pas, avec ses effectifs actuels, les moyens de mener cette mission d'\u00e9valuation de mani\u00e8re s\u00e9rieuse en plus de ce qu'il doit d\u00e9j\u00e0 faire !).\n\nEnfin, comme toujours dans notre pays, nombre d'articles renvoient \u00e0 des d\u00e9crets d'application : le Diable sera donc dans les d\u00e9tails, et l'exp\u00e9rience montre que le Malin ne conc\u00e8de jamais de victoire facile. 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"accessibilityText": "Open article: Inondations en Europe : comment le r\u00e9chauffement climatique est pass\u00e9 de \"menace pour les g\u00e9n\u00e9rations futures\" \u00e0 danger imminent by francetvinfo.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.francetvinfo.fr/meteo/climat/inondations-en-europe-comment-le-rechauffement-climatique-est-passe-de-menace-pour-les-generations-futures-a-danger-imminent_4690937.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Inondations en Europe : comment le r\u00e9chauffement climatique est pass\u00e9 de \"menace pour les g\u00e9n\u00e9rations futures\" \u00e0 danger imminent" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6822075147445391360,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un article publi\u00e9 sur le site de France Info rappelle que notre esp\u00e8ce est c\u00e2bl\u00e9e pour avoir peur de processus d\u00e9j\u00e0 observ\u00e9s et catalogu\u00e9s comme dangereux (un incendie, une inondation, une surmortalit\u00e9...), et non d'une pr\u00e9vision \"globale\" (le changement climatique) dont les cons\u00e9quences locales sont impossibles \u00e0 d\u00e9crire en d\u00e9tails et plus encore \u00e0 dater avec pr\u00e9cision. C'est la raison pour laquelle personne n'a vraiment eu peur au moment o\u00f9 sont sortis les premiers rapports du GIEC, qui disaient l'essentiel de ce qu'il faut savoir, alors que maintenant que commencent \u00e0 se multiplier les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes hors norme, on se dit que \"ouh l\u00e0 l\u00e0 il faudrait peut-\u00eatre faire quelque chose\".\n\nCela ne serait pas si grave si le processus global \u00e9tait imm\u00e9diatement r\u00e9versible d\u00e8s que nous commen\u00e7ons \u00e0 trembler un peu. Malheureusement la d\u00e9rive climatique n'est pas r\u00e9versible. Les propri\u00e9t\u00e9s physiques et chimiques intrins\u00e8ques des gaz \u00e0 effet de serre emp\u00eachent qu'il en soit ainsi. \n\nUne deuxi\u00e8me difficult\u00e9 majeure vient bloquer l'action, point\u00e9e avec justesse par Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, un historien des sciences : \"l'incompr\u00e9hension des bases mat\u00e9rielles de l'\u00e9conomie\" par la majorit\u00e9 de la population et des d\u00e9cideurs, qui peuvent alors croire que \"l'innovation va permettre d'effectuer la transition, mais c'est parce qu'on ne comprend pas tr\u00e8s bien comment fonctionnent la sid\u00e9rurgie, les cimenteries, la production d'engrais, l'agriculture... et surtout les m\u00e9canismes de diffusion des techniques, son rythme et sa lenteur\".\n\nDit autrement, les fausses croyances se sont d\u00e9plac\u00e9es, du moins en Europe, de la d\u00e9finition du probl\u00e8me (le climatoscepticisme est devenu totalement marginal au sein de la classe politique et \u00e9conomique) \u00e0 sa r\u00e9solution (d'o\u00f9 l'abondance de \"vert\", \"propre\", \"durable\" employ\u00e9s \u00e0 tort et \u00e0 travers, et la confusion permanente entre 1 et 1000). \n\nLe m\u00eame Jean-Baptiste Fressoz de rajouter que \"La transition n'a pas eu lieu, elle n'a pas m\u00eame pas commenc\u00e9\". \"(...) La t\u00e2che qui nous attend est compl\u00e8tement inou\u00efe.\"\n\nR\u00e9sumons de mani\u00e8re un peu directe : pour le moment nous n'agissons pas (encore ?) de mani\u00e8re significative, nous tentons essentiellement de nous rassurer." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6822075147445391360,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6822075148003246081,urn:li:activity:6822075148003246081,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 92, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6822075148003246081,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6822075148003246081,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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plus forte partie, d'une certaine mani\u00e8re. En effet, dans le cadre du travail \"Mobiliser l\u2019enseignement sup\u00e9rieur pour le climat\", effectu\u00e9 en mars 2019 (https://lnkd.in/dNVfiau), nous avions trouv\u00e9 11% seulement de parcours de formation dans les \u00e9tablissements analys\u00e9s qui comportaient au moins un cours obligatoire sur les enjeux \u00e9nergie climat (et qui pouvait \u00eatre d'une heure seulement !). Dit autrement, 90% des \u00e9tudiants sortaient des 32 \u00e9tablissements pass\u00e9s \u00e0 la loupe sans avoir jamais eu le moindre cours sur un enjeu d\u00e9cr\u00e9t\u00e9 comme majeur par ailleurs par le monde politique et la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 civile.\n\nMais dans ces 11%, les \u00e9coles d'ing\u00e9nieurs sont sur-repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es, et les autres \u00e9tablissements affichent des performances bien plus \"maigres\". En particulier, dans les \u00e9coles de commerce, la proportion \u00e9tait de... z\u00e9ro ! Il faut dire que le sujet rend la t\u00e2che plus ardue, puisque les limites physiques de la plan\u00e8te n'apparaissent nulle part dans les th\u00e9ories concernant l'\u00e9conomie et la gestion.\n\nNotre projet avec Audencia vise \u00e0 \"transformer le tronc commun, mais aussi \u00e0 d\u00e9cliner les connaissances et comp\u00e9tences requises par fili\u00e8re m\u00e9tier, afin de r\u00e9pondre et anticiper la demande du march\u00e9 du travail.\"\n\nEn parlant de travail, The Shift Project recherche celui ou celle qui va justement piloter ce projet : https://lnkd.in/dTtRGwp" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6821720065814085632,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272,urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 79, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272", "threadId": "activity:6821720066506166272", "allowedCommentersScope": "ALL", "totalSocialActivityCounts": { "socialDetailEntityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272", "urn": "urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272", "numComments": 120, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272", "reactionTypeCounts": [ { "count": 1074, "reactionType": "LIKE" }, { "count": 182, "reactionType": "PRAISE" }, { "count": 47, "reactionType": "INTEREST" }, { "count": 31, "reactionType": "MAYBE" }, { "count": 24, "reactionType": "APPRECIATION" }, { "count": 20, "reactionType": "EMPATHY" } ], "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272", "numLikes": 1378, "liked": false }, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6821720066506166272", "commentingDisabled": false, "likes": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 1378, "links": [] }, "elements": [] } } }, { "actor": { "urn": "urn:li:member:101316862", "image": { "accessibilityTextAttributes": [], "attributes": [ { "sourceType": "PROFILE_PICTURE", "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Jean-Marc", "lastName": "Jancovici", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAAAYJ-P4B8XcfHOiVTdmiAyYGfvxBRs3J_Ug", "occupation": "Founding Partner, Carbone 4 - 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"DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6821116796989382656,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "C'est un fait bien connu des gens qui s'int\u00e9ressent \u00e0 la question : alors que la France poss\u00e8de la quatri\u00e8me for\u00eat europ\u00e9enne par la superficie, le bois et les produits en bois (meubles inclus) sont un des premiers postes de d\u00e9ficit de la balance commerciale. \n\nLe changement climatique va mettre une double pression sur la for\u00eat :\n- consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme s\u00e9questrant du carbone quand il s'agit d'objets durables (charpente, \u00e9l\u00e9ments de mobilier ou parquets...), ou \u00e9vitant des \u00e9missions quand ils remplacent des combustibles fossiles (ce qui est une convention qui n'est valable que sous certaines conditions bien pr\u00e9cises), les produits en bois et d\u00e9riv\u00e9s du bois vont faire l'objet d'une demande croissante\n- dans le m\u00eame temps le changement climatique va amoindrir le stock, et la d\u00e9forestation aussi.\n\nIl ne serait donc pas d\u00e9raisonnable de consid\u00e9rer le bois comme une ressource strat\u00e9gique, \u00e0 l'\u00e9gal des minerais ou hydrocarbures. Et si c'est strat\u00e9gique, il faut que l'\u00e9tat s'en m\u00eale. Est-il acceptable que, au nom de la libre concurrence, une large partie des grumes fran\u00e7aises quitte le pays sans aucune transformation, alors que nos outils de transformation - certes plus artisanaux, mais cela n'a pas que des inconv\u00e9nients - ont parfois des difficult\u00e9s pour s'approvisionner ? \n\nDans le domaine de la for\u00eat comme dans beaucoup d'autres de long terme (car sous nos latitudes il faut de 50 \u00e0 100 ans pour faire un arbre \"en \u00e9tat de marche\"), on va r\u00e9aliser une \u00e9vidence : la libre concurrence, et la possibilit\u00e9 pour chacun de venir se servir pourvu qu'il paye le prix, c'est un syst\u00e8me qui ne fonctionne bien qu'en p\u00e9riode d'abondance. Mais d\u00e8s que la disponibilit\u00e9 de la ressource devient un sujet, ca tousse !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6821116796989382656,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6821116797605945346,urn:li:activity:6821116797605945346,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 135, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6821116797605945346,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6821116797605945346,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": true, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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(ancien r\u00e9dacteur de la section \"p\u00e9trole\" des World Energy Outlook de l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie) mettaient la touche finale \u00e0 un rapport r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par The Shift Project \u00e0 la demande du Minist\u00e8re des Arm\u00e9es sur les perspectives d'approvisionnement en p\u00e9trole de l'Europe. \n\nLa question pos\u00e9e \u00e9tait en gros la suivante : la quantit\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole disponible pour les europ\u00e9ens \u00e0 l'avenir ne d\u00e9pend-elle que de notre volont\u00e9 d'en consommer ou pas (par exemple pour des raisons de climat), ou y a-t-il d'autres limites qui s'appliquent ?\n\nLa r\u00e9ponse, exprim\u00e9e en 4500 caract\u00e8res (environ !) dans cette tribune publi\u00e9e par les auteurs du rapport dans Les Echos, est la seconde : il y a une contrainte g\u00e9ologique \u00e0 l'oeuvre, et la quantit\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole consomm\u00e9e en Europe va baisser \u00e0 l'avenir, que nous le voulions ou pas. Le probl\u00e8me, c'est que jusqu'\u00e0 maintenant nous le voulons plus dans les discours que dans les actes. \n\nQuelles cons\u00e9quences ?\n- un peu d'inflation quand les prix vont repartir \u00e0 la hausse pour de bon, mais ce n'est pas le plus grave\n- probablement une baisse structurelle du PIB, parce que le p\u00e9trole reste le sang du syst\u00e8me de transports (en particulier de marchandises), donc le sang du syst\u00e8me \u00e9conomique mondial. Depuis 40 ans d\u00e9sormais, la variation de la quantit\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole produite pilote directement, avec une correspondance parfaite, la variation du PIB mondial. \n\nL'Italie est un cas d'\u00e9cole d'un pays brutalement sevr\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole (https://lnkd.in/gXfrnyq ). Ce que dit cette tribune, ou plut\u00f4t ce qu'elle rappelle, c'est que d'ici \u00e0 2050 il va falloir transitionner en d\u00e9croissance bien plus souvent qu'en croissance. \n\nNombre de calculs \u00e9conomiques sur la \"transition\" postulent la croissance. Il serait urgent de les refaire pour v\u00e9rifier que les options prises r\u00e9sistent \u00e0 ce qui va vraiment nous arriver." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6820752707696005120,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6820752708476125184,urn:li:activity:6820752708476125184,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 25, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6820752708476125184,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6820752708476125184,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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d'accord pour que tout change, \u00e0 la condition que presque rien ne change. Moins de CO2 oui, mais \u00e0 la condition que ca ne soit pas moins d'industrie ! \n\nLe job sera donc fait par le progr\u00e8s technique, et les \"instruments de march\u00e9\". Incidemment Laschet fait une erreur courante en citant l'European Trading System (le syst\u00e8me de quotas n\u00e9gociables) comme un instrument de march\u00e9 : certes les quotas peuvent s'\u00e9changer une fois obtenus, mais le principe de base de ce syst\u00e8me est identique \u00e0 celui des tickets de rationnement ! A la racine de l'ETS, on trouve bien une autorisation administrative d'\u00e9mettre...\n\nQuoi qu'il en soit, porter \u00e0 la chancellerie du pays le plus influent en Europe une personne qui ne veut rien d'autre que du progr\u00e8s technique et des incitations - qui peuvent \u00e9videmment fournir de quoi faire une petite partie du chemin, mais une petite partie seulement - n'augure pas tr\u00e8s bien de la mise en oeuvre d'un plan cr\u00e9dible pour se d\u00e9faire de la d\u00e9pendance aux \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre de fa\u00e7on contr\u00f4l\u00e9e en Europe. Nous ferons donc un petit pas de plus vers la baisse involontaire..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6820601791881736192,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6820601792322146304,urn:li:activity:6820601792322146304,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 25, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6820601792322146304,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6820601792322146304,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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pr\u00e8s l'ordre des pays en mati\u00e8re d'\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, revisite la devise des JO, et s'interroge sur leur p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 dans un monde bas carbone.\n\nIl n'a pas tort. Que faut-il pour faire de bons JO ? \n- des athl\u00e8tes qui s'entrainent toute l'ann\u00e9e, dans des infrastructures pr\u00e9vues pour cela. Du temps de la Gr\u00e8ce antique, il y avait un ou deux stades dans le pays, mais rien \u00e0 voir avec la profusion de piscines, gymnases, stades, courts de tennis, man\u00e8ges, golfs, terrains de foot, de rugby, etc, amen\u00e9s par... les combustibles fossiles\n- des spectateurs qui viennent de partout. En voiture, en avion, rarement \u00e0 pied !\n- des postes de t\u00e9l\u00e9 partout, or le num\u00e9rique est un consommateur indirect important d'\u00e9nergies fossiles,\n- des chaines de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision qui payent des droits \u00e9lev\u00e9s, droits eux-m\u00eames rentabilis\u00e9s par la pub ensuite, laquelle pub est rentabilis\u00e9e par des achats... de produits \u00e0 profusion fabriqu\u00e9s gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie fossile.\n- du temps libre pour regarder la t\u00e9l\u00e9. Or l'accroissement du temps libre, c'est la productivit\u00e9 du travail permise par les fossiles qui nous la donne !\n\nDans le sport aussi, la mondialisation permise par les \u00e9nergies fossiles a frapp\u00e9. 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n'h\u00e9sitez pas \u00e0 participer. \n\n\u27a1\ufe0f La m\u00e9thodologie\u00a0OCARA (Operational Climate Adaptation and Resilience Assessment),\u00a0pr\u00e9sente\u00a0un cadre\u00a0d\u2019analyse permettant aux entreprises d\u2019appr\u00e9hender leur niveau de r\u00e9silience face aux impacts du changement climatique.\n\n\u27a1\ufe0f Pourquoi cette consultation ?\nCe projet de d\u00e9veloppement m\u00e9thodologique est soutenu par l\u2019ADEME, HDI Global SE,\u00a0Bureau Veritas Group et la CCI GRAND EST. Un comit\u00e9 d\u2019experts a aussi \u00e9t\u00e9 associ\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9laboration de la m\u00e9thode. Enfin, une version z\u00e9ro de la m\u00e9thode a \u00e9t\u00e9 b\u00eata-test\u00e9e aupr\u00e8s de 9 entreprises pilotes.\n\ud83d\udc49 Cette consultation publique se propose d'\u00e9largir encore ce cercle de relecteurs pour b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de l\u2019\u00e9clairage d\u2019autres experts et utilisateurs potentiels de la m\u00e9thode.\n\n\u27a1\ufe0f A qui cette consultation s\u2019adresse-t-elle ?\nA l\u2019ensemble des publics experts de l\u2019adaptation au changement climatique et des d\u00e9marches de gestion des risques (acad\u00e9mique, institutionnels, etc.) ainsi qu\u2019aux utilisateurs potentiels de la m\u00e9thode (cabinets de conseil, entreprises d\u00e9j\u00e0 connaisseuses du sujet de l\u2019adaptation au changement climatique, etc.)\n\ud83d\udc49 Elle est ouverte du 12 juillet au 13 ao\u00fbt.\n\nEn participant \u00e0 cette consultation, vous contribuez \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9laboration d\u2019une m\u00e9thodologie pionni\u00e8re sur les impacts du changement climatique et amen\u00e9e \u00e0 jouer un r\u00f4le cl\u00e9 dans la fa\u00e7on dont le sujet est abord\u00e9 par les entreprises.\n\nAfin de restreindre les commentaires aux personnes et organisations les plus pertinentes sur le sujet, il vous est demand\u00e9 de vous inscrire via le formulaire ci-dessous \u2935\ufe0f \n\nMerci d'avance pour votre int\u00e9r\u00eat et votre participation !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6820259355347189760,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6820259356169277440,urn:li:activity:6820259356169277440,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 2, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6820259356169277440,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il n'y a pas de progr\u00e8s sans mesure. Cette maxime est bien connue dans le monde des gestionnaires, et s'applique aussi aux grands enjeux environnementaux. \n\nC'est gr\u00e2ce au bilan carbone, et \u00e0 son approche par processus, qu'il est possible de s'attaquer de mani\u00e8re op\u00e9rationnelle \u00e0 la d\u00e9pendance aux \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. Incidemment, le GHG Protocol et ses \"scope\" ont fait beaucoup de mal \u00e0 la cause, en d\u00e9pla\u00e7ant le d\u00e9bat sur le terrain de la propri\u00e9t\u00e9 des \u00e9missions, alors que le vrai sujet est celui de la d\u00e9pendance, puisque c'est cette derni\u00e8re qui porte le risque. On peut en effet \u00eatre beaucoup plus \u00e0 risque sur des \u00e9missions qui ne sont pas sa propri\u00e9t\u00e9, mais qui sont n\u00e9anmoins indispensables dans la chaine de valeur, que sur des \u00e9missions qui sont sa propri\u00e9t\u00e9.\n\nApr\u00e8s un an de travail, Carbone 4 propose aussi une approche par processus pour l'analyse des risques physiques du changement climatique, avec la m\u00e9thode OCARA - Operational Climate Adaptation and Resilience Assessment - qui est disponible en consultation pour le mois qui vient, avant une parution d\u00e9finitive \u00e0 la rentr\u00e9e.\n\nApr\u00e8s les quelques p\u00e9rip\u00e9ties qui viennent de se produire au Canada, aux USA, en Russie, au Japon, \u00e0 Ta\u00efwan, en Chine, en Norv\u00e8ge, et ailleurs, et malheureusement bient\u00f4t chez nous, et qui ne sont que des pr\u00e9mices h\u00e9las, il est plus que temps de s'emparer de cette question des risques physiques par anticipation.\n\nA vos claviers donc !" }, 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L\u2019industrie automobile appelle Emmanuel Macron \u00e0 l\u2019aide face \u00e0 une transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \u00ab d\u00e9vastatrice \u00bb by lemonde.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2021/07/10/l-industrie-automobile-appelle-emmanuel-macron-a-l-aide-face-a-une-transition-energetique-devastatrice_6087815_3234.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L\u2019industrie automobile appelle Emmanuel Macron \u00e0 l\u2019aide face \u00e0 une transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \u00ab\u00a0d\u00e9vastatrice\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6820289624955478016,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Pendant des ann\u00e9es, les constructeurs automobiles ont r\u00e9sist\u00e9 \u00e0 l'envie de la Commission europ\u00e9enne de diminuer les \u00e9missions des v\u00e9hicules neufs vendus. Une des raisons est que les marges se font sur les familiales et mod\u00e8les haut de gamme, et donc limiter les \u00e9missions, donc la masse et la puissance, c'est affaiblir les performances \u00e9conomiques.\n\nMais une attitude de r\u00e9sistance d\u00e9bouche rarement sur une logique d'investissement. A leur d\u00e9charge, on peut les comprendre : la m\u00eame Commission demande \"en m\u00eame temps\" que la concurrence soit respect\u00e9e, ce qui interdit de prot\u00e9ger des investissements de long terme en garantissant des march\u00e9s.\n\nPour avancer dans la bonne direction, il aurait fallu s'organiser autrement : imposer aux constructeurs des mesures permettant d'investir dans la bonne direction (v\u00e9hicules de faible masse, thermiques- 2 l aux 100 max - ou \u00e9lectriques), et dans le m\u00eame temps leur garantir un march\u00e9 domestique prot\u00e9g\u00e9. Cela s'appelle... de la politique industrielle.\n\nL'Europe semble d\u00e9couvrir, un peu tard, que ce genre de planification a du bon, en encourageant la cr\u00e9ation d'usines de batteries en grand nombre, avec parfois des aides plus ou moins directes des Etats. Mais c'est un peu tard par rapport aux chinois, qui savent s'accommoder d'une concurrence plus faiblarde (\u00e0 leur profit bien sur), voire des japonais, qui ont aussi, parfois, des politiques domestiques tr\u00e8s fortes.\n\nPour le moment, le mix \"concurrence + aide au consommateur\" est le mix parfait pour favoriser les importations et ne pas encourager les investissements. Pour le faire, le bon cocktail est \"obligation au consommateur + aide au producteur + protection du march\u00e9 domestique + encadrement de la rente qui en nait\", et tout cela en ayant correctement pens\u00e9 \u00e0 l'avance \u00e0 la contrainte de ressources (car il n'est pas sur que la production des constructeurs automobiles europ\u00e9ens puisse physiquement rester la m\u00eame avec de l'\u00e9lectrique, compte tenu de la quantit\u00e9 de m\u00e9taux sp\u00e9cifiques n\u00e9cessaires pour les batteries et moteurs).\n\nL'Europe - donc les Etats qui la composent - le comprendra-t-elle avant d'imploser en croyant qu'elle avancera dans la bonne direction en restant un march\u00e9 ouvert dans un monde sans croissance ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6820289624955478016,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Se tromper dans les pr\u00e9noms nous est arriv\u00e9 \u00e0 tous, mais me retrouver homonyme (de pr\u00e9nom) du sieur Dusse dans un magazine imprim\u00e9 c'est plus rare !\n\nC'est ce qu'il m'est arriv\u00e9 \u00e0 l'occasion d'une interview publi\u00e9e le week-end dernier dans le Figaro Magazine, o\u00f9 il \u00e9tait (un peu trop \u00e0 mon gout, mais lectorat oblige...) question de nucl\u00e9aire et d'\u00e9olien, et, quand m\u00eame, de contraction inexorable de l'\u00e9conomie et (un peu) de vulgarisation des enjeux.\n\nDans cette version imprim\u00e9e (et \u00e9galement celle mise en ligne quand je l'ai consult\u00e9e hier), la r\u00e9daction a modifi\u00e9 le texte apr\u00e8s envoi de mes corrections (sans me soumettre les modifications), avec pour r\u00e9sultat l'apparition d'un gros contresens sur une phrase de ma r\u00e9ponse.\n\nJ'ai donc reproduit sur mon site personnel l'interview telle que je l'avais envoy\u00e9e au magazine. 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6819547436298604544,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\"Ce que nous vivons aujourd'hui, ce n'est pas le r\u00e9chauffement climatique, ce sont ses pr\u00e9mices\" : Jean Jouzel, qui a fait partie des premiers scientifiques \u00e0 appara\u00eetre sur la sc\u00e8ne publique fran\u00e7aise pour parler de ce processus, nous rappelle, comme Herv\u00e9 Le Treut dans La Croix (https://lnkd.in/dWGYFB5 ) que, quoi que nous fassions, le monde de demain sera plus hostile que le monde d'hier. \n\nCe qui se passe actuellement n'\u00e9tait pas pr\u00e9vu \"au jour et \u00e0 l'heure pr\u00e8s\" par la communaut\u00e9 scientifique, mais nous ne pouvons pas dire que nous ne savions pas. La litt\u00e9rature scientifique documente depuis des d\u00e9cennies le processus en cours, et, dans les grandes lignes, les \"surprises\" actuelles - canicules, inondations, feux de for\u00eat, d\u00e9p\u00e9rissements de la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation - n'en sont que pour celles et ceux qui n'avaient pas lu la litt\u00e9rature en question.\n\nLa m\u00eame litt\u00e9rature dit aussi que, quoi que nous fassions, la situation va \"empirer\", \u00e0 cause de l'inertie du CO2 dans l'atmosph\u00e8re. M\u00eame la neutralit\u00e9 en 2050, \u00e0 supposer que nous l'atteignons, ne nous permettra pas du tout de retrouver le climat du 20\u00e8 si\u00e8cle. \n\nLes \"pr\u00e9mices\", c'est, depuis juin, des canicules historiques aux USA (qui s'appr\u00eatent \u00e0 en reprendre une couche : https://lnkd.in/dSwNMX8 , et qui connaissent une s\u00e9cheresse sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent sur toute la moiti\u00e9 ouest : https://lnkd.in/dQVN83A ), en Europe de l'Est et en Russie, en Gr\u00e8ce, en Scandinavie (https://lnkd.in/dWH_Ms2 ), bient\u00f4t en Espagne et au Maroc (https://lnkd.in/dZBhA5d )...\n\nPar une chance incroyable, la m\u00e9tropole fran\u00e7aise est \u00e9pargn\u00e9e en ce d\u00e9but d'\u00e9t\u00e9. Mais cela ne doit pas nous donner l'illusion que pour nous le temps s'arr\u00eate. Il faut malheureusement se dire que notre tour viendra, et commencer \u00e0 s'occuper un peu plus s\u00e9rieusement de se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 ce monde diff\u00e9rent, ce qui commence par bien comprendre \u00e0 quoi on doit s'attendre. \n\nEsp\u00e9rons que ce soit comme cela que l'entendent les \"organisations financi\u00e8res internationales\", qui se sont alli\u00e9es avec les banques centrales et les superviseurs, pour cr\u00e9er la \"Central Banks\u2019 and Supervisors\u2019 Climate Training Alliance (CTA)\", pour \"fournir au monde financier des supports de formation concernant le sujet climatique\" : https://lnkd.in/dwFhwRs\n\nIl serait temps !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6819547436298604544,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6819547436831264768,urn:li:activity:6819547436831264768,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, 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read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Habiter dans une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 bas carbone : le nouveau rapport du Shift Project by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/habiter-societe-bas-carbone-rapport-intermediaire-shift-30-juin/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Habiter dans une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 bas carbone : le nouveau rapport du Shift Project" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6819148597221724160,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "The Shift Project a publi\u00e9 il y a peu le rapport interm\u00e9diaire portant sur le b\u00e2timent du Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise.\n\nOn y apprend notamment que nous construisons actuellement 400.000 logements par an, alors que la cr\u00e9ation de nouveaux m\u00e9nages est de 200.000 par an. 20% des logements neufs construits sur la p\u00e9riode 2013-2018 sont vacants, et 15% sont des r\u00e9sidences secondaires, tr\u00e8s peu occup\u00e9es. Or, la construction de logements neufs est le premier vecteur d'artificialisation des sols (les 3/4 environ), et un tr\u00e8s gros poste de consommation de mat\u00e9riaux (de loin le premier dans nos activit\u00e9s \"modernes\").\n\nNous raisonnons souvent \"\u00e0 parc constant\" sur les trajectoires de d\u00e9carbonation, mais c'est sans compter la forte augmentation de la surface par personne et l'augmentation de la population. Si ces deux derniers termes \u00e9taient rest\u00e9s constants, les \u00e9missions du parc de logements auraient baiss\u00e9 de 45% depuis 1990, alors qu'elles n'ont baiss\u00e9 que de 15%. \n\nC'est pour cela que dans ce rapport, outre les propositions \"classiques\" sur la massification de la r\u00e9novation (qui pose des probl\u00e8mes de comp\u00e9tences disponibles et de cadre r\u00e9glementaire), nous proposons quelque chose de moins habituel (et probablement moins consensuel) : fortement baisser la production de logements neufs. Avant de sauter en l'air en criant \"au fou\", je propose de bien lire les attendus du rapport !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6819148597221724160,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6819148597746012160,urn:li:activity:6819148597746012160,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 45, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6819148597746012160,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6819148597746012160,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 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\"d'ajustement aux fronti\u00e8res\", qui a longtemps \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9sign\u00e9 sous le nom de \"taxe carbone aux fronti\u00e8res\".\n\nLe principe est assez simple : il s'agit de mettre sur un pied d'\u00e9galit\u00e9 les productions domestiques et les importations en ce qui concerne le \"prix du carbone\" que les producteurs ont eu \u00e0 payer. 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"urn:li:fs_miniCompany:1024481", "name": "Carbone 4", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=rfJGK2e3iterLsOsSISWYBKQfwRsHbVRefpndEMkvPQ", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=RdCLexoU6sLuxazvQlgNfFeH4Wfhc6NXzSzW9yDnXqw", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=LuPzdb3bCuaLwxQ0d-zT9XKdKpEEgBhM46jfzYljHFk", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQGvsTIZAJifHQ/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "carbone-4", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:1024481", "trackingId": "h2zztu2sRXSO1RwptxlkWA==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Il y a un an environ, Carbone 4 publiait le r\u00e9f\u00e9rentiel Net Zero Initiative, posant les bases sur la mani\u00e8re de confronter une organisation (une entreprise, par exemple) vis-\u00e0-vis de la neutralit\u00e9 mondiale qu'il faut atteindre le plus vite possible pour limiter la casse en mati\u00e8re de d\u00e9rive climatique.\n\nDepuis nous avons un peu travaill\u00e9, et nous vous proposons demain un webinaire pour pr\u00e9senter le chemin parcouru. Deux sujets seront \u00e0 l'ordre du jour.\n\nLe premier concerne ce que l'on appelle les \u00e9missions \u00e9vit\u00e9es. Elles repr\u00e9sentent conventionnellement le \"bien\" que les produits ou services d'une entreprises peuvent faire aux \u00e9missions de leur secteur de client\u00e8le. Exemple : si mon entreprise vend des v\u00e9los \u00e9lectriques qui permettent d'envoyer des voitures \u00e0 la casse, je cr\u00e9e des \"\u00e9missions \u00e9vit\u00e9es\" dans le secteur des d\u00e9placements de personnes.\n\nQuelle m\u00e9trique, et quelles r\u00e8gles de calcul appliquer pour mesurer la capacit\u00e9 d\u2019une entreprise \u00e0 contribuer \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation de son \u00e9cosyst\u00e8me ?\n\nLe deuxi\u00e8me sujet concerne les puits de carbone. Pour le moment, la r\u00e8gle suivie dans le cadre de a compensation est simple : l'entreprise qui apporte un financement additionnel sur un projet de s\u00e9questration, ou de d\u00e9forestation \u00e9vit\u00e9e, ou d'efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, s'octroie la totalit\u00e9 des \u00e9missions \u00e9vit\u00e9es sur la totalit\u00e9 de dur\u00e9e de vie du projet, et les d\u00e9duit de ses \u00e9missions propres.\n\nA l'examen, cette mani\u00e8re de faire n'est pas \"physiquement\" pertinente. Mais il faut quand m\u00eame augmenter les puits. Du coup, quelle m\u00e9thode une entreprise peut employer pour se fixer des objectifs sur sa contribution aux puits de carbone, et comment compter cette derni\u00e8re ? 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"fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1626269031730?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=LuPzdb3bCuaLwxQ0d-zT9XKdKpEEgBhM46jfzYljHFk", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQGvsTIZAJifHQ/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "carbone-4", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:1024481", "trackingId": "cfc3jDabRC+EtXs644XwyA==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Commerce physique contre e-commerce : qui gagne la bataille du carbone ? Pas si simple, explique cet article de Juliette Sorret de Carbone 4, car le plus souvent un achat en e-commerce vient s'ajouter au commerce en magasin, et non le remplacer. L'apparition du e-commerce a donc \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi un inducteur d'achats suppl\u00e9mentaires, pas juste un rempla\u00e7ant de l'achat en magasin. Accessoirement il d\u00e9place un peu plus la valeur ajout\u00e9e et la ma\u00eetrise de nos flux vers des centres de d\u00e9cisions des Gafa.\n\nA supposer que l'achat \"\u00e0 distance\" remplace l'achat en magasin, qui gagne ? Aux USA, o\u00f9 le commerce de centre ville n'existe quasiment nulle part, pour l'excellente raison que la notion m\u00eame de \"centre ville dense\" n'existe pas (les villes US sont pour l'essentiel des banlieues \u00e9tal\u00e9es de bout en bout), et o\u00f9 les magasins sont rassembl\u00e9s dans des \"mall\" o\u00f9 tout le monde va en voiture, l'empreinte carbone d'un achat en magasin est quasiment \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 celle d'un achat en e-commerce. Il y a moins de d\u00e9placements certes, mais plus de camion, et surtout beaucoup plus d'emballages (dont le recyclage ne supprime pas les \u00e9missions de fabrication !).\n\nEn France, il est donc possible que l'avantage soit au magasin physique, car les \u00e9missions dues \u00e0 l'emballage seront \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s les m\u00eames, alors que le d\u00e9placement pour aller au magasin laisse une part plus importante, tous magasins confondus, \u00e0 \"autre chose que la voiture\".\n\nEn outre le d\u00e9veloppement du e-commerce est un inducteur d'artificialisation des sols, \u00e0 travers la construction d'entrep\u00f4ts, et de leurs surfaces de desserte (parkings, routes, etc).\n\nLa meilleure mani\u00e8re d'\u00e9viter les \u00e9missions du commerce, dans tous les cas de figure, est... la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9, c'est \u00e0 dire acheter le moins de choses possibles, puisque cela \u00e9vite les \u00e9missions de fabrication et de distribution.\n\nC'est d\u00e9j\u00e0 ce \u00e0 quoi sont contraints les m\u00e9nages \"modestes\", me r\u00e9torquera-t-on. En fait, m\u00eame au sein des m\u00e9nages \"modestes\", par exemple les ouvriers, la proposition \"On devrait donner la priorit\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019environnement m\u00eame si cela peut ralentir la croissance \u00e9conomique de votre pays et faire perdre des emplois\" recueille plus d'affirmations que la proposition inverse (privil\u00e9gier la croissance \u00e9conomique et les emplois m\u00eame si cela peut avoir des cons\u00e9quences n\u00e9fastes pour l\u2019environnement), comme on peut le voir p. 18 de https://lnkd.in/diivqAe. 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\u00e0 cause \"des technologies\" et de l'intelligence artificielle, selon cette interview de Daniel Susskind, qui a \u00e9crit un livre o\u00f9 il explique comment se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 un avenir sans travail. \"Si nous nous dirigeons vers un monde avec moins de travail, nous devons donc penser davantage \u00e0 la fa\u00e7on d'organiser le temps libre\", indique l'auteur.\n\nCe point de vue consiste \u00e0 prolonger les tendances du pass\u00e9. De fait, l'essentiel du travail physique qui occupait nos anc\u00eatres n'est plus d'actualit\u00e9, gr\u00e2ce aux machines. L'agriculture, qui occupait les 2/3 de la population active en 1800, en occupe aujourd'hui p\u00e9niblement 2% ; les tracteurs, usines d'engrais, usines agroalimentaires, usines phytosanitaires, mines de phosphate, et autres auxiliaires m\u00e9canis\u00e9s ont pris le relais.\n\nLes ouvriers, qui repr\u00e9sentaient 40% des emplois en 1974, sont descendus \u00e0 20%. A la place, des machines.\n\nC'est de l\u00e0 qu'est venue l'augmentation du \"temps libre\", que nous avons affect\u00e9 \u00e0 des \u00e9tudes plus longues, des retraites plus pr\u00e9coces, des semaines moins charg\u00e9es, des cong\u00e9s pay\u00e9s, etc. \n\nNous avons aussi transform\u00e9 certaines activit\u00e9s domestiques en emplois : la garde d'enfants, le soin, la transmission du savoir (autrefois une affaire familiale, c'est devenu une activit\u00e9 majeure), etc. C'est, d'une certaine mani\u00e8re, des activit\u00e9s pour \"passer - agr\u00e9ablement - le temps\". Nous avons cr\u00e9\u00e9 les consultants, aussi, qui n'existent pas dans un monde sans machines :)\n\nNotre auteur semble penser que tout cela va encore s'amplifier. Il est permis d'en douter. Au vu du r\u00f4le des machines, un monde sobre en \u00e9nergie a peu de chances d'\u00eatre un monde de loisirs. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8242937676187350763)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "carbon4finance.com \u2022 7 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: The key to facing the energy transition is Scope 3 by carbon4finance.com", "actionTarget": "http://www.carbon4finance.com/article-scope-3/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "The key to facing the energy transition is Scope 3" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6817814174735835136,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 1427, "length": 16, "miniCompany": { "objectUrn": "urn:li:company:11435106", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniCompany:11435106", "name": "Carbon4 Finance", "showcase": false, "active": true, "logo": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1626269325997?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=3ABm7OMkx3C-lCTZ0nzLNwolAvSOdCzmXAmru5OGoNs", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1626269325997?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=BH2dPvm6L3J2WTdLoIHnY84SpgLWZZ1_En8Q1Ppak6Q", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1626269325997?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=KNMwKZHCJ3dtlDJdUTurpEbxpfYk5LW3dEbsOvBcUBU", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQG_i3N_cce19w/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "carbon4finance", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:11435106", "trackingId": "eQN5J6vFSLCdqnEALCvcyg==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Dans le jargon des comptables du carbone, le \"scope 3\" d\u00e9signe les \u00e9missions qui permettent \u00e0 une entreprise de fonctionner mais qui ne concernent pas l'usage direct de l'\u00e9nergie par l'entreprise en question.\n\nCe sont par exemple les \u00e9missions permettant aux composants et services d'\u00eatre fabriqu\u00e9s par les fournisseurs (et les fournisseurs des fournisseurs), et aux clients d'utiliser (ou de faire traiter en fin de vie) les produits vendus. Ce sont encore les \u00e9missions venant en contrepartie des d\u00e9placements des salari\u00e9s ou des clients. Une contrainte sur ces \u00e9missions \"g\u00eanera\", un peu ou mortellement, l'entreprise qui en d\u00e9pend, m\u00eame si ce ne sont pas \"ses\" \u00e9missions.\n\nLorsque le monde financier \u00e9value les \"risques de transition\" d'une entreprise, trop souvent encore il ne regarde pas le scope 3. Cela revient \u00e0 comparer 2 constructeurs automobiles sur la seule base des consommations d'\u00e9nergie dans leurs usines, mais sans prendre en compte le fait que l'un fabrique des voitures \u00e9lectriques pendant que l'autre fait des voitures \u00e0 essence. Cela revient \u00e0 comparer 2 magasins sans se pr\u00e9occuper de la distance moyenne parcourue en voiture par leurs clients, ou le contenu carbone des produits qu'ils vendent.\n\nCette approche ne permet donc pas de \"voir venir\" la perte de valeur d'une entreprise en cas de contrainte sur les \u00e9missions qui s'appliquerait \u00e0 ses clients ou \u00e0 ses fournisseurs. Nous consid\u00e9rons donc, \u00e0 Carbon4 Finance , que cette mani\u00e8re de faire met... le gestionnaire d'actifs \u00e0 risque. Celui de ne pas avoir respect\u00e9 son devoir fiduciaire, qui consiste, dans le monde financier, \u00e0 tout faire pour pr\u00e9server la valeur de l'\u00e9pargne qui lui a \u00e9t\u00e9 confi\u00e9e. \n\nEn temps ordinaire, comme l'expliquent les auteurs de l'Illusion de la Finance Verte (https://lnkd.in/dRS9vNZ ) ce devoir fiduciaire est plut\u00f4t de nature \u00e0 emp\u00eacher les investisseurs de \"faire le bien\" en privil\u00e9giant des activit\u00e9s rentables mais mauvaises pour le climat.\n\nMais, en ce qui concerne le scope 3, on peut imaginer l'exact inverse : peut-\u00eatre qu'un jour, des \u00e9pargnants se retournent contre les gestionnaires de leur \u00e9pargne pour avoir d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment limit\u00e9 leur analyse \u00e0 une partie du risque. Ce m\u00eame devoir fiduciaire forcera alors les acteurs du monde financier \u00e0 \"faire le bien\", c'est \u00e0 dire \u00e9valuer les risques climat sur l'ensemble de la chaine de valeur." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6817814174735835136,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6817814175352397824,urn:li:activity:6817814175352397824,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 19, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6817814175352397824,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6817814175352397824,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Les femmes et le changement climatique by tnova.fr", "actionTarget": "https://tnova.fr/notes/les-femmes-et-le-changement-climatique" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les femmes et le changement climatique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6817487109381726208,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Terra Nova publie un sondage (un de plus !) sur les fran\u00e7ais et le changement climatique, avec pour particularit\u00e9 que leur angle principal est de regarder la diff\u00e9rence entre hommes et femmes en fonction de la question pos\u00e9e.\n\nOn y apprend que les femmes d\u00e9clarent \u00eatre plus pr\u00e9occup\u00e9es par l'environnement que les hommes (10% de plus), sont un peu moins \"climatosceptiques\" (8% de moins), sont 10% moins nombreuses \u00e0 souscrire \u00e0 la proposition \"On devrait donner la priorit\u00e9 \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique et aux emplois m\u00eame si cela peut avoir des cons\u00e9quences n\u00e9fastes pour l\u2019environnement\", ou encore qu'elles sont plus nombreuses \u00e0 d\u00e9clarer \"faire les bons gestes\" (baisser le thermostat, manger moins de viande, moins acheter et moins emball\u00e9, prendre les transports en commun ou le v\u00e9lo, etc). \n\nSur ce dernier point il s'agit bien d'une auto-d\u00e9claration, non d'une observation valid\u00e9e par un tiers, et il est \u00e9videmment impossible de savoir si les femmes sont effectivement plus \"vertueuses\", ou si, plus pr\u00e9occup\u00e9es, elles sont plus nombreuses \u00e0 avoir envie d'\u00eatre align\u00e9es... et donc \u00e0 le dire.\n\nMais il y a deux points \"importants\" sur lesquels elles sont moins favorables \u00e0 des mesures d\u00e9carbonantes collectives que les hommes : restreindre la mobilit\u00e9 (quelques % de diff\u00e9rence ; les hommes sont un peu plus favorables), et remplacer le charbon par du nucl\u00e9aire. Il y a notamment 20% de diff\u00e9rence sur ce dernier point, qui est celui pour lequel l'\u00e9cart hommes-femmes est le plus marqu\u00e9. Il serait int\u00e9ressant de comprendre pourquoi, via des \u00e9tudes approfondies (et des entretiens), et pas juste un sondage." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6817487109381726208,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6817487109943791616,urn:li:activity:6817487109943791616,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 40, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6817487109943791616,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6817487109943791616,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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Limits to Growth\", parfois appel\u00e9 \"Rapport du Club de Rome\" (analyse compl\u00e8te l\u00e0 : https://lnkd.in/ev4N-EA ).\n\nLeur conclusion \u00e9tait simple mais tr\u00e8s d\u00e9sagr\u00e9able : quelles que soient les hypoth\u00e8ses (compatibles avec une plan\u00e8te de 13000 km de diam\u00e8tre) en mati\u00e8re de ressources disponibles, et de capacit\u00e9 de l'environnement \u00e0 \"\u00e9purer\" notre pollution (dont le changement climatique fait partie), une absence de limitation volontaire de nos activit\u00e9s productives (\"l'\u00e9conomie\") conduit le syst\u00e8me humain \u00e0 commencer \u00e0 s'effondrer au cours du 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle. \n\nBien sur, selon les hypoth\u00e8ses c'est plut\u00f4t 2030 ou 2080, mais cette diff\u00e9rence est faible au regard de la dur\u00e9e de vie pass\u00e9e de notre esp\u00e8ce (100.000 ans en ordre de grandeur).\n\nDans cette tribune parue dans l'Express, j'essaie d'expliquer en quoi, appliqu\u00e9e \u00e0 nos \u00e9missions de CO2, cette analyse vient battre en br\u00e8che l'id\u00e9e que \"si nous ne faisons rien, les \u00e9missions augmentent sans cesse jusqu'en 2100\". Si nous \"ne faisons rien\", nous sommes juste en train de suivre le chemin qui nous m\u00e8ne \u00e0 un effondrement avant 2100, et cela aura accessoirement comme cons\u00e9quence... une diminution involontaire des \u00e9missions avant 2100. \n\nDit autrement, il ne nous reste pas 80 ans de tranquillit\u00e9, de retraites \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s pay\u00e9es, de promesses \u00e9lectorales tenues et de commerce ext\u00e9rieur qui ira mieux demain si \"nous ne faisons rien\". 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possibles pour att\u00e9nuer au mieux les cons\u00e9quences \u00e0 venir de la d\u00e9rive climatique, qui seront de toute fa\u00e7on bien pires que celles que nous avons aujourd'hui.\n\nVoil\u00e0, en 2 phrases, les 184 pages du rapport du Haut conseil pour le climat qui est sorti hier. 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Dans cette conf\u00e9rence donn\u00e9e r\u00e9cemment aux \u00e9l\u00e8ves de l'X, dans laquelle il leur explique \"en toute amiti\u00e9\" qu'ils s'appr\u00eatent \u00e0 se mettre au service d'un syst\u00e8me de destruction globale de notre environnement - l'\u00e9conomie productiviste, c'est le philosophe qui est le plus int\u00e9ressant.\n\nOn pourra ne pas \u00eatre d'accord avec les points de vue qu'il d\u00e9fend. On pourra se dire que c'est plus vite dit que fait d'organiser la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 en fonction des souhaits de notre orateur. On pourra lui reprocher une ou deux inexactitudes ici ou l\u00e0 dans les chiffres qu'il cite (car il en cite beaucoup !). \n\nL'essentiel n'est pas l\u00e0. L'essentiel est dans les questions qu'il pose, et la r\u00e9flexion sur les valeurs et le sens des mots \u00e0 laquelle il nous invite. 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"text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les ministres de l'\u00e9ducation des pays du G20 se sont r\u00e9unis Mardi dernier, le 22 juin donc. A cette occasion, une coalition d'organisations \u00e9tudiantes anglaises ont appel\u00e9 les ministres en question \u00e0 prendre \u00e0 bras le corps le sujet de l'enseignement des enjeux environnementaux et climatiques : https://lnkd.in/dyC2tbk\n\nLes signataires ne demandent pas qu'un module \"d\u00e9veloppement durable\" ou \"climat\" soit rajout\u00e9 aux cursus actuels, comme c'est trop souvent le cas quand les \u00e9tablissements d'enseignement font quelque chose. Ils demandent que l'ensemble de l'enseignement soit mis en coh\u00e9rence avec la question des limites plan\u00e9taires. Cela pose \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence des questions assez fondamentales sur l'enseignement d'autres mati\u00e8res, notamment l'\u00e9conomie.\n\nCela pose aussi la question des effectifs par nature de formation professionnelle (il faudrait plus de certains m\u00e9tiers, moins d'autres...), et plein d'autres encore aujourd'hui non ou peu trait\u00e9es.\n\nCette prise de position rejoint les travaux du Shift Project, qui travaille depuis quelques ann\u00e9es d\u00e9j\u00e0 sur la mani\u00e8re de mettre les contenus de l'enseignement sup\u00e9rieur (pour commencer, mais il ne faut \u00e9videmment pas s'y limiter) en accord avec les d\u00e9fis \u00e0 relever : https://lnkd.in/g2wSxGM Rien que regarder comment on fait pour changer les cursus pour les mettre en ad\u00e9quation avec la d\u00e9carbonation, qui est un enjeu syst\u00e9mique, prend 1 \u00e0 2 ans (il faut regarder chaque mati\u00e8re, former ou remplacer les enseignants, g\u00e9rer les effets d'\u00e9viction...), et pendant ce temps l\u00e0 l'horloge tourne, et les cons\u00e9quences de la d\u00e9rive climatique augmentent.\n\nEsp\u00e9rons que cette mise en coh\u00e9rence de l'enseignement avec les enjeux de demain finira par arriver avant les 47 \u00b0C \u00e0 Brest..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6815881399720022016,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6815881400311414784,urn:li:activity:6815881400311414784,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 36, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6815881400311414784,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6815881400311414784,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", 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Etienne KLEIN et votre serviteur ont eu le plaisir de participer \u00e0 la table ronde d'ouverture anim\u00e9e par Juliette Nouel sur le th\u00e8me de la formation aux enjeux \u00e9nergie-climat (comme c'est \u00e9tonnant, hein ?).\n\nL'enregistrement vid\u00e9o est disponible sur Youtube, et l'enregistrement audio sur Soundcloud : https://lnkd.in/dxky_8M (ce dernier est bien suffisant si vous n'avez pas un besoin imp\u00e9rieux de voir des gens assis dans un fauteuil en train de causer !).\n\nEn quelques ann\u00e9es, ce jeu tr\u00e8s simple (il faut des cartes, une grande feuille de papier, et un stylo) et extr\u00eamement efficace a permis de former un nombre important de personnes sur les aspects physiques du changement climatique. 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Les argiles sont des couches g\u00e9ologiques qui sont capables, selon l'humidit\u00e9 \u00e0 laquelle elles sont expos\u00e9es, de se gonfler (quand il y a de l'eau) ou de se r\u00e9tracter (quand elles s\u00e8chent). Les variations importantes d'humidit\u00e9 des sols, et notamment les \u00e9pisodes tr\u00e8s secs, cr\u00e9ent des variations importantes du volume de ces argiles. Quand une construction se trouve dessus, cela engendre un risque de fissuration des murs. \n\nEn fait, l'essentiel des dommages assur\u00e9s en cas de canicule ne concerne pas les cultures ou les arbres (les pauvres, ils ne valent rien, ou si peu...) mais les constructions qui se l\u00e9zardent. Un tiers des indemnisations pour catastrophes naturelles en proviennent, et ce sont les maisons construites apr\u00e8s 1976 qui sont les plus expos\u00e9es.\n\nCes ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes de retrait-gonflement vont s'intensifier \u00e0 l'avenir. 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presque 50\u00b0C - \u00e0 Verkhojansk, au del\u00e0 du cercle arctique (https://lnkd.in/d9wuEN2). Il fait quasiment 40\u00b0C \u00e0 Vancouver (https://lnkd.in/dN2Pd-T ) o\u00f9 la normale en juin est de... 15 \u00b0C (https://lnkd.in/dMpatbB ). Les for\u00eats des Rocheuses se mettent \u00e0 br\u00fbler comme jamais (https://lnkd.in/dZpcFGQ ). \n\nEt que nous propose TF1 au 20h au m\u00eame moment ? 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"description": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Olivier Blanchard, professeur \u00e9m\u00e9rite au MIT, ancien directeur du d\u00e9partement de recherche au FMI, Jean Tirole, pr\u00e9sident honoraire de l'\u00e9cole d\u2019\u00e9conomie de Toulouse (TSE), prix Nobel d\u2019\u00e9conomie 2014, sont les invit\u00e9s de 8h20. Retrouvez tous les..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "Olivier Blanchard et Jean Tirole : \"On peut avoir croissance et diminution des \u00e9missions de CO2\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6814582945538437120,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "MM. Blanchard et Tirole sont pass\u00e9s \u00e0 France Inter pour la pr\u00e9sentation de leur rapport (https://lnkd.in/dvuSnNt ). Quelques r\u00e9actions :\n\n- Demorand dit que Tirole a re\u00e7u le \"Nobel d'\u00e9conomie\". Ce \"Nobel d'\u00e9conomie\"... n'existe pas. Il y a un \"prix de la Banque de Su\u00e8de en la m\u00e9moire d'Alfred Nobel\", qui est un ajout posthume aux disciplines pour lesquels Alfred Nobel a l\u00e9gu\u00e9 sa fortune. La bonne question est de savoir pourquoi l'ami Alfred n'a pas pr\u00e9vu l'\u00e9conomie !\n\n- Salam\u00e9 qualifie le rapport de \"passionnant, il faut le dire\". Cela sous-entend qu'elle l'a lu. Est-ce le cas, sachant qu'il fait 500 pages et est sorti la veille ?\n\n- Blanchard dit que le covid \"est une crise conjoncturelle\". Sur 20.000 ans, l'exception pour notre esp\u00e8ce est plut\u00f4t l'absence de r\u00e9gulation de la population par les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies ! Evidemment, tout est question d'\u00e9chelle de temps...\n\n- Salam\u00e9 indique que \"le rapport du GIEC est paru il y a deux jours\". Aucun rapport n'est paru : l'AFP a r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 un document de travail provisoire, qui n'avait pas vocation \u00e0 \u00eatre publi\u00e9 (pas plus que les version successives d'un manuscrit d'un livre ne sont destin\u00e9es \u00e0 \u00eatre publi\u00e9es, sans qu'il n'y ait de complot derri\u00e8re). L'AFP aurait du attendre, mais voil\u00e0 il faut faire l'actu...\n\n- Tirole pr\u00e9sente le prix du carbone comme un bon moyen d'orienter le comportement. C'est effectivement une possibilit\u00e9, mais ce n'est pas la seule : la r\u00e9glementation permet aussi de le faire. Les \u00e9conomistes g\u00e9n\u00e9ralistes aiment les taxes et pas la r\u00e9glementation pour une raison toute b\u00eate : leurs mod\u00e8les (bas\u00e9s sur des \u00e9lasticit\u00e9s prix-volume) savent \"manger\" une variation de prix, mais pas des changements sectoriels de r\u00e9glementation qui ne se relient pas \u00e0 des prix (par exemple une limite en consommation des voitures vendues). Pas d'outil d'analyse, pas de recommandation, c'est aussi simple que cela !\n\n- Olivier Blanchard consid\u00e8re que \"on peut avoir croissance et diminution des \u00e9missions de CO2\". Malheureusement, au niveau mondial, PIB et CO2 \u00e9voluent de concert (voir graphique en commentaire). Au niveau d'un pays il peut y avoir d\u00e9couplage, parce que les flux physiques qui engendrent le CO2 prennent alors place \u00e0 l'ext\u00e9rieur du pays pendant que la valeur ajout\u00e9e correspondante se situe \u00e0 l'int\u00e9rieur des fronti\u00e8res. Cet effet n'existe pas pour l'ensemble de l'\u00e9conomie.\n\n- j'ai \u00e9t\u00e9 cit\u00e9 dans une question (!) sur les in\u00e9galit\u00e9s, pour avoir dit \"les smicards sont des nababs\". Ma phrase exacte est celle-ci : \"la v\u00e9rit\u00e9 politiquement indicible est que, au regard de ce qu'a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 la condition humaine, m\u00eame les smicards sont des nababs\". \n\n- Tirole et Blanchard consid\u00e8rent que \"les \u00e9conomies planifi\u00e9es\" ne sont pas efficaces. Voire : en France, elle a donn\u00e9 l'h\u00f4pital, le train, le r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique, et nos voisins plus \"lib\u00e9raux\" n'ont pas fait mieux, mais plut\u00f4t moins bien..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6814582945538437120,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6814582946272419840,urn:li:activity:6814582946272419840,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 115, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6814582946272419840,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6814582946272419840,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6814468160125730816,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Faut-il dire \"trop tard, trop peu\", ou bien \"enfin\" ?\n\nLe Financial Times (la \"bible\" du capitalisme pur et dur, donc) se fait l'\u00e9cho d'une vague de chaleur sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent qui concerne tout l'ouest du continent nord-am\u00e9ricain. Le ton n'est pas f\u00e9rocement alarmiste, mais par contre il n'y a pas l'ombre d'un commentaire \"climatosceptique\" dans le texte, alors qu'une partie des lecteurs doit probablement appartenir \u00e0 ce courant de pens\u00e9e (non parce que c'est fond\u00e9, mais parce que \"si c'est vrai\" alors cela justifie des mesures qui seront contraires \u00e0 leurs int\u00e9r\u00eats de court terme, voir https://lnkd.in/da8NZpc ).\n\nLes partisans du \"enfin\" se diront que ce genre d'article secoue utilement un lectorat qui a par ailleurs \"la main sur les manettes\", car il s'agit de d\u00e9cideurs \u00e9conomiques qui peuvent soit agir, soit accepter les obligations collectives qui limiteront leur capacit\u00e9 d'action. \n\nLes partisans du \"trop tard, trop peu\" se diront que, compte tenu de l'inertie du syst\u00e8me climatique, qui fait que de toute fa\u00e7on la d\u00e9rive des 30 prochaines ann\u00e9es est ind\u00e9pendante de nos \u00e9missions, la Californie (et d'autres r\u00e9gions du monde) est d\u00e9j\u00e0 pour partie \"fichue\" : la s\u00e9cheresse va augmenter de toute fa\u00e7on, une partie des for\u00eats et des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes va mourir de toute fa\u00e7on, la production agricole va baisser de toute fa\u00e7on, et le stress de la population va augmenter de toute fa\u00e7on.\n\nLes deux ont raison. Il faut d'urgence commencer \u00e0 faire ce que l'on peut pour pr\u00e9venir les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts d'une modification climatique qui va fortement s'amplifier \u00e0 l'avenir de toute fa\u00e7on (ca concerne toutes nos activit\u00e9s, et est pour le moment dramatiquement absent de tous les plans de \"relance\" des \u00e9conomies occidentales alors qu'il va falloir y mettre un morceau significatif du PIB), et en m\u00eame temps - si cette expression peut encore \u00eatre utilis\u00e9e :) - commencer d'urgence \u00e0 r\u00e9organiser le fonctionnement de l'ensemble de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 pour baisser les \u00e9missions. Si cet article du FT peut pousser dans ces deux directions, il est bienvenu." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6814468160125730816,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6814468160759070720,urn:li:activity:6814468160759070720,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 52, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6814468160759070720,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6814468160759070720,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6814187736791060480,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La commission Blanchard Tirole rend ses propositions pour l'\u00e9conomie de demain : 500 pages d'un rapport qualifi\u00e9 de \"passionnant\" par L\u00e9a Salam\u00e9 lors de cette matinale de France Inter : https://lnkd.in/dJgqwn5 (sachant que ce document est sorti la veille, et qu'il fait un demi-millier de pages, je serais curieux de savoir quelle proportion elle en a lu avant d'avoir un avis dessus !). \n\nJ'ai lu en diagonale la partie climat : c'est un peu - et m\u00eame tr\u00e8s - d\u00e9cevant. Il faut monter le prix du carbone, \"et faire d'autres choses\", disent nos amis. OK, la taxe est une des mesures \u00e0 prendre, mais l'histoire r\u00e9cente montre bien qu'une taxe, ce n'est pas un projet de soci\u00e9t\u00e9, et que ce \"prix du carbone\" c'est 1% de la solution. Le \"autre chose\" n'est pas vraiment un plan d'action... \n\nCe r\u00e9sultat est-il tr\u00e8s \u00e9tonnant, avec une commission qui ne comportait que des \u00e9conomistes universitaires, mais ni praticien de l'\u00e9conomie, ni scientifique (physicien, biologiste...) ?\n\nBaisser les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, ce n'est pas juste un probl\u00e8me th\u00e9orique, avec une solution \"passe partout\", c'est un ensemble de probl\u00e8mes pratiques. Ce qu'il faut faire dans le logement n'est pas ce qu'il faut faire pour le transport de marchandises ; la modification des pratiques agricoles ne s'aborde pas comme le changement de l'industrie lourde ; l'\u00e9volution de la production \u00e9lectrique ne se g\u00e8re pas comme celle du transport a\u00e9rien.\n\nDe ce fait, demander \u00e0 des gens qui travaillent sur des mod\u00e8les th\u00e9oriques avec des prix ce qu'il faut faire en pratique pour mieux former les ma\u00e7ons, s'il faut obliger les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 changer de chaudi\u00e8re ou monter le prix du fioul, ou encore si il faut plut\u00f4t limiter les places de parking en voiture ou plut\u00f4t augmenter les places de parking \u00e0 v\u00e9lo ne peut que conduire \u00e0 des r\u00e9sultats d\u00e9cevants. \n\nIl y a 3 ans, au Shift Project nous avions essay\u00e9 de convaincre l'Elys\u00e9e de cr\u00e9er une \"commission de planification de la d\u00e9carbonation\", qui se serait justement attaqu\u00e9e, avec une approche par fili\u00e8re, \u00e0 tous les probl\u00e8mes pratiques pos\u00e9s par le fait de mettre r\u00e9ellement l'\u00e9conomie sur une trajectoire de baisse des \u00e9missions de 5% par an.\n\nL'Elys\u00e9e n'en ayant pas voulu, nous avons d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de le faire pour nous m\u00eames au moment o\u00f9 a \u00e9clat\u00e9 la \"crise du covid\". C'est cela la gen\u00e8se du... Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ).\n\nChacun(e) pourra juger, au fil des publications de rapports interm\u00e9diaires que nous faisons, si notre approche est plus ou moins pertinente (et compl\u00e9mentaire ou pas) que celle suivie dans le rapport qui vient d'\u00eatre rendu." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6814187736791060480,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6814187737508282368,urn:li:activity:6814187737508282368,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 35, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6814187737508282368,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"\u00ab\u00a0Nous, \u00e9l\u00e8ves de la haute fonction publique, demandons \u00e0 \u00eatre form\u00e9s \u00e0 la transition \u00e9cologique\u00a0\u00bb" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6814082393985585152,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "138 \u00e9l\u00e8ves d'\u00e9coles formant les futurs hauts fonctionnaires (Mines, Agro-Ponts, ENA, INET, EHESP) publient une tribune dans Le Monde o\u00f9 ils demandent \u00e0 ce que \"la transition \u00e9cologique et solidaire soit plac\u00e9e au centre\" de la formation dispens\u00e9e dans le futur Institut national du service public qui prendra la suite des structures actuelles.\n\nParmi ces signataires se trouvent quelques personnes ayant des liens avec The Shift Project, par exemple parce qu'elles contribuent ou ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 nos travaux sur le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ).\n\nCette imp\u00e9rieuse n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de pr\u00e9parer les acteurs de demain au monde de demain, et non au monde d'hier, a \u00e9t\u00e9 au centre de plusieurs travaux de notre think tank (https://lnkd.in/g2wSxGM ). Les probl\u00e8mes pour avancer deviennent alors des probl\u00e8mes pratiques.\n\nPour enseigner, il faut des enseignants. Si la mati\u00e8re est nouvelle, soit il faut former les enseignants d\u00e9j\u00e0 en place (qui doivent en avoir envie, sinon ils seront eux-m\u00eames de mauvais p\u00e9dagogues ensuite, et il faut trouver les \"enseignants pour enseignants\"), soit les remplacer (c'est plus ou moins facile selon le contexte : tr\u00e8s facile quand c'est des vacataires, impossible quand c'est des statutaires). Les journ\u00e9es ne faisant que 24 heures, si on fait de la place \u00e0 un nouveau sujet, il faut en enlever un d\u00e9j\u00e0 enseign\u00e9 : lequel ?\n\nEnfin il faut rendre les formations restantes compatibles avec ce qui est enseign\u00e9 en plus. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \"Nourrir la France en 2050 avec une agriculture vivante\" | Rdv le 6 juillet by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/invitation-nourrir-la-france-en-2050-conference-ateliers-6-juillet-14h/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\"Nourrir la France en 2050 avec une agriculture vivante\" | Rdv le 6 juillet" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6813720354284957696,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Il y a quelques si\u00e8cles, la richesse, c'\u00e9tait la terre : on \u00e9tait riche \u00e0 proportion de son patrimoine foncier, rural pour l'essentiel. Puis le patrimoine s'est transf\u00e9r\u00e9 sur les usines et la production \"mat\u00e9rielle\", dont l'\u00e9nergie fait partie : l'homme le plus riche de tous les temps a peut-\u00eatre \u00e9t\u00e9 Rockefeller, le premier magnat du p\u00e9trole, \u00e0 une \u00e9poque o\u00f9 l'essentiel de l'or noir \u00e9tait extrait aux USA (et a fait leur puissance).\n\nMais... la tendance a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 s'inverser. Le prix des terres arables a \u00e9t\u00e9 multipli\u00e9 par 6 dans le monde entre\u00a02002 et\u00a02018. Il faut dire que de la terre, il y en a de moins en moins par personne : de 1960 \u00e0 aujourd'hui, la surface agricole par personne est pass\u00e9e de 1,5 \u00e0 0,6 hectare (voir grahique en commentaire). \n\nLa production \u00e0 l'hectare a consid\u00e9rablement augment\u00e9... gr\u00e2ce aux hydrocarbures (tracteurs, engrais - issus du gaz, phytosanitaires - issus du p\u00e9trole et du gaz). Que va-t-il se passer quand ces auxiliaires ne seront plus aussi faciles d'acc\u00e8s ?\n\nFaut-il mettre plus de num\u00e9rique dans l'agriculture, et donc remplacer des gens par des machines, ou faire l'inverse ? Le green deal europ\u00e9en, qui pr\u00e9voit plus d'une centaine de milliards pour \"num\u00e9riser les campagnes\", alors que la PAC ne rend pas l'agriculture plus \"douce\" pour l'environnement et mieux adapt\u00e9e \u00e0 un climat qui va devenir plus hostile, nous emm\u00e8ne-t-il dans la bonne direction ?\n\nLe 6 juillet prochain, The Shift Project pr\u00e9sentera ses premi\u00e8res conclusions sur le volet \"agriculture\" du Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise. Suivront des ateliers (prioritairement r\u00e9serv\u00e9s aux professionnels du secteur) pour discuter des bonnes mesures \u00e0 prendre pour pr\u00e9parer l'avenir au mieux.\n\nL'agriculture a beau repr\u00e9senter seulement 2% de la valeur ajout\u00e9e dans notre pays (comme le poids de notre cervelle au sein de notre propre corps), sans rien \u00e0 manger, il y a quelques petites soucis \u00e0 se faire sur le reste." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6813720354284957696,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6813720354880557056,urn:li:activity:6813720354880557056,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 58, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6813720354880557056,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, 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La contraction de l'approvisionnement europ\u00e9en depuis 2006 a emp\u00each\u00e9 le retour d'une \"vraie croissance\", alors que rien n'est pr\u00eat dans les programmes des partis, qui continuent \u00e0 se projeter dans un avenir o\u00f9 cette croissance revient, et \u00e0 promettre cette \u00e9volution \"radieuse\" \u00e0 des \u00e9lecteurs qui voient pourtant la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 s'\u00e9crire autrement.\n\nLa bonne question est de savoir si la r\u00e9forme peut venir de l'int\u00e9rieur de ce monde l\u00e0, ou si elle viendra de l'ext\u00e9rieur, et \u00e0 ce moment si elle sera douce ou violente. 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une composante de l'atteinte de la neutralit\u00e9 carbone dans notre pays. En fait, leur d\u00e9veloppement chez nous correspond \u00e0 un tout autre objectif : celui de la lutte contre le nucl\u00e9aire civil (dont la baisse ne permet en rien d'\u00e9viter du CO2 puisque le nucl\u00e9aire n'en \u00e9met pas en direct, et tr\u00e8s peu en analyse de cycle de vie).\n\nMais faut-il s'\u00e9tonner de cette confusion dans la presse, quand le gouvernement de notre pays l'entretient en permanence ? Prenons un exemple (un de plus !) : dans sa \"D\u00e9cision du 18 mai 2021 cons\u00e9cutive au d\u00e9bat public portant sur les projets d'\u00e9oliennes flottantes au sud de la Bretagne et leur raccordement\" (https://lnkd.in/dZ5wjVZ ), la ministre de la transition \u00e9cologique - ou plus probablement son administration - \u00e9crit par exemple que \"la strat\u00e9gie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fran\u00e7aise est expos\u00e9e dans la strat\u00e9gie nationale bas carbone et la programmation pluriannuelle de l'\u00e9nergie, qui (...) soulignent le besoin de d\u00e9velopper les \u00e9nergies renouvelables, afin de r\u00e9duire les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre et de diversifier le bouquet \u00e9lectrique\" \n\nOn peut lire dans le m\u00eame avis que \"le projet de parc \u00e9olien en mer flottant de 250 m\u00e9gawatts (MW) et la perspective du d\u00e9veloppement d'un second parc de 500 MW maximum r\u00e9pondent au double objectif de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre et de diversification du bouquet \u00e9lectrique fran\u00e7ais pour le rendre plus r\u00e9silient, participant ainsi \u00e0 (...) l'atteinte des objectifs de neutralit\u00e9 carbone\".\n\nL'\u00e9olien, pr\u00e9vu pour substituer du nucl\u00e9aire dans la promesse de Hollande perp\u00e9tu\u00e9e depuis, devient donc (et c'est inexact) une composante de \"l'atteinte des objectifs de neutralit\u00e9 carbone\". \n\nCet avis est, plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, bourr\u00e9 de phrases qui affirment des choses factuellement exactes mais qui sont, pour qui conna\u00eet bien le dossier, \u00e0 l'\u00e9vidence destin\u00e9es \u00e0 noyer le poisson. \n\nPar exemple \"la strat\u00e9gie \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fran\u00e7aise est expos\u00e9e dans la strat\u00e9gie nationale bas carbone et la programmation pluriannuelle de l'\u00e9nergie, qui (...) soulignent le besoin de d\u00e9velopper les \u00e9nergies renouvelables\" ne dit pas si notre ennemi est prioritairement les fossiles (auquel cas les ENR \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper n'incluent pas l'\u00e9olien) ou le nucl\u00e9aire (auquel cas l'\u00e9olien en mer est effectivement une option).\n\nLa bonne question est de savoir pourquoi l'administration fran\u00e7aise ne dit pas clairement \"nous voulons d\u00e9velopper l'\u00e9olien en France parce que nous sommes contre le nucl\u00e9aire avant toutes choses, peu importe le CO2\". 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7467493984199424960)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "eca.europa.eu \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Document Item by eca.europa.eu", "actionTarget": "https://www.eca.europa.eu/fr/Pages/DocItem.aspx?did=58913" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Document Item" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6812979544404897792,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La Cour des comptes europ\u00e9enne (qui, comme la n\u00f4tre, a \u00e9t\u00e9 institu\u00e9e pour contr\u00f4ler les finances de l'Union) vient de publier un rapport sur l'impact de la Politique Agricole Commune (PAC), qui mobilise la moiti\u00e9 du budget de l'UE, sur les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre de l'agriculture (qui repr\u00e9sentent environ 20% des \u00e9missions territoriales europ\u00e9ennes).\n\nLe r\u00e9sultat tient en un chiffre, selon les auteurs du rapport : z\u00e9ro. Pourtant, depuis 2013, le climat est un axe majeur de la PAC. 100 milliards d'euros ont \u00e9t\u00e9 consacr\u00e9s \u00e0 ce sujet de 2014 \u00e0 2020, du moins sur le papier, et pourtant les \u00e9missions agricoles sont rest\u00e9es stables. \n\nLa PAC, disent les rapporteurs, ne vise aucune limitation du cheptel bovin (la moiti\u00e9 des \u00e9missions domestiques, et plus encore si l'on inclut la d\u00e9forestation import\u00e9e li\u00e9e aux produits v\u00e9g\u00e9taux pour le b\u00e9tail produits hors UE). Incidemment le rapport montre que la consommation de viande par personne augmente de 2014 \u00e0 2018, quelle que soit la viande. \n\nL'utilisation d'engrais azot\u00e9s (un tiers des \u00e9missions via le N2O) augmente.\n\nLa PAC encourage par ailleurs les agriculteurs qui cultivent sur des tourbi\u00e8res drain\u00e9es (20% des \u00e9missions agricoles).\n\nPlus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement la PAC ne finance aucune pratique ayant un gros potentiel de baisse des \u00e9missions. Elle n'a pas augment\u00e9 le soutien au boisement, \u00e0 l'agroforesterie et \u00e0 la conversion de terres arables en prairies permanentes. La Cour ne propose pas une PAC alternative (ce n'est pas son r\u00f4le) mais fournit de nombreux \u00e9l\u00e9ments qui permettent d'y r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir.\n\nLe rapport - https://lnkd.in/e9DKBwD - est tr\u00e8s bien r\u00e9dig\u00e9 (en anglais), m\u00eame s'il faut parfois traduire un terme technique, et contient de tr\u00e8s nombreux graphiques tr\u00e8s instructifs." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6812979544404897792,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6812979544899805184,urn:li:activity:6812979544899805184,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 66, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6812979544899805184,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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publie son \"barom\u00e8tre des risques\", destin\u00e9 \u00e0 sonder les coeurs et les reins de mes compatriotes sur leur perception des risques nucl\u00e9aires, et surtout leur comparaison avec d'autres : https://lnkd.in/dGW6pce\n\nOn y trouve le graphique ci-dessous (et d'autres tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressants, notamment sur la place qui doit \u00eatre accord\u00e9e \u00e0 \"l'expert\" dans la prise de d\u00e9cision) fournissant cet \u00e9tonnant r\u00e9sultat, alors que nous sommes en plein 2\u00e8 confinement et que l'\u00e9conomie n'est pas \"au mieux\" : le r\u00e9chauffement climatique inqui\u00e8te plus que le ch\u00f4mage ou la pauvret\u00e9. Il inqui\u00e8te surtout consid\u00e9rablement plus que le nucl\u00e9aire (mais ce n'est pas le propos essentiel de ce post, donc merci de ne pas troller sur ce sujet).\n\nSachant que les consid\u00e9rations sanitaires ne sont jamais tr\u00e8s loin des consid\u00e9rations environnementales (un environnement sain est du reste un d\u00e9terminant majeur d'une bonne sant\u00e9), et que le terrorisme a d\u00e9sormais un d\u00e9terminant climatique parfois, ce r\u00e9sultat ne sugg\u00e8re-t-il pas que nos concitoyens seraient \"accessibles\" \u00e0 un grand projet de soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui mettrait la d\u00e9carbonation au coeur des politiques publiques, et des projets porteurs d'espoir ?\n\nEn tous cas, c'est le pari que nous avons pris il y a un an au Shift Project quand nous nous sommes lanc\u00e9s dans le \"plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise\" (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ). 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\u00e0 gratter sur la \"finance verte\". \n\nPour les auteurs, cette affirmation que la finance est capable de rendre, seule, l'\u00e9conomie plus douce pour l'environnement est apparue dans la foul\u00e9e de la crise des subprime, pour redonner des couleurs \u00e0 un secteur d'activit\u00e9 qui n'avait plus tr\u00e8s bonne presse \u00e0 l'\u00e9poque.\n\nMais leur argumentation est qu'il s'agit d'une fausse promesse : une activit\u00e9 \"verte\" ne peut pas, par construction expliquent-ils, b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de meilleures conditions financi\u00e8res que la m\u00eame \"pas verte\". 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puissance install\u00e9e pour cette source figure sur le graphique ci-dessous (source https://lnkd.in/d69ebMM )\n\nS'ils avaient gard\u00e9 leur nucl\u00e9aire, combien de CO2 auraient ils \u00e9vit\u00e9 ? Comme leur centrales pouvaient toutes, en premi\u00e8re approximation, fonctionner encore 10 ans, cela aurait donn\u00e9, depuis l'ann\u00e9e de fermeture jusqu'\u00e0 fin 2021 :\n\n8,4 GW de nucl\u00e9aire, ferm\u00e9s en 2011, auraient produit, en 10 ans, 662 TWh (facteur de charge 90% ; 1 TWh = 1 milliard de kWh)\n1,2 GW de nucl\u00e9aire, ferm\u00e9s en 2015, auraient produit, en 5 ans, 57 TWh\n1,3 GW de nucl\u00e9aire, ferm\u00e9s en 2018, auraient produit, en 3 ans, 31 TWh\n1,4 GW de nucl\u00e9aire, ferm\u00e9s en 2020, auraient produit, en 1 an, 11 TWh\n\nTotal : 761 TWh. Or, en 2011, l'Allemagne avait aussi 21 GW de lignite (du mauvais charbon s'exploitant dans des mines \u00e0 ciel ouvert) et du charbon (25 GW). Un TWh d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 la lignite c'est plus d'un million de tonnes de CO2, au charbon c'est 0,8 million de tonnes.\n\nEn gardant le nucl\u00e9aire et en fermant (ou en faisant moins fonctionner) des centrales \u00e0 lignite et charbon, les allemands auraient \u00e9vit\u00e9 environ 800 millions de tonnes de CO2, soit une ann\u00e9e d'\u00e9missions de ce pays, ou encore 10% de leurs \u00e9missions totales sur la p\u00e9riode. \n\nOnt-ils vraiment suivi un chemin exemplaire si le but du jeu \u00e9tait de faire baisser les \u00e9missions aussi vite que possible ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6812308054348976129,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6812308054902640640,urn:li:activity:6812308054902640640,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 100, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { 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Il y est beaucoup question - sans grande surprise - d'interaction entre le monde politique et la population, sous diverses formes.\n\nNB : les propos ont \u00e9t\u00e9 relus et amend\u00e9s, par contre le titre et le chap\u00f4 sont de la r\u00e9daction, comme d'habitude en pareil cas." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6811954586966859776,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6811954587340152832,urn:li:activity:6811954587340152832,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 37, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6811954587340152832,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6811520850462830592,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Si nous voulons limiter le r\u00e9chauffement plan\u00e9taire \u00e0 2\u00b0C, une partie des gisements de p\u00e9trole, de gaz et de charbon ne pourront pas \u00eatre exploit\u00e9s jusqu'\u00e0 leur terme : il y a trop de combustibles fossiles d\u00e9j\u00e0 inventori\u00e9s (et en cours d'exploitation) sous le sol pour que nous puissions tout br\u00fbler si cette limite en temp\u00e9rature doit \u00eatre respect\u00e9e.\n\nOr, l'exploitation de ces gisements fournit des revenus aux op\u00e9rateurs qui servent ensuite \u00e0 rembourser les banques qui leur ont pr\u00eat\u00e9 - et continuent de leur pr\u00eater - l'argent n\u00e9cessaire aux investissements. 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a\u00e9riens, et des combustibles fossiles,\n- incitations pour les entreprises qui diminuent leurs \u00e9missions\n\nLes mesures fiscales devaient abonder un fonds permettant de financer des projets de r\u00e9duction.\n\nComme il est possible dans ce pays, une votation a \u00e9t\u00e9 demand\u00e9e sur cette loi, apparemment initi\u00e9e par les milieux patronaux, la fili\u00e8re auto et la fili\u00e8re p\u00e9troli\u00e8re si l'on en croit la RTS. Cette votation a conduit \u00e0 une invalidation par 51,6% des votants, alors m\u00eame que les helv\u00e8tes sont souvent perturb\u00e9s par ce qui arrive \u00e0 leurs montagnes et leurs glaciers. \n\nRappelons que, \u00e0 la faveur de la tr\u00e8s forte augmentation du PIB par personne, nos voisins suisses ont d\u00e9sormais une empreinte carbone par t\u00eate qui se situe dans la haut de la fourchette europ\u00e9enne. 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Du coup on ne peut m\u00eame pas laisser un commentaire pour leur demander pourquoi les commentaires sont d\u00e9sactiv\u00e9s ! 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"actionTarget": "https://www.sfen.org/rgn/decryptage-epr-taishan-1" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "D\u00e9cryptage sur l\u2019EPR Taishan-1" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6811190103579340800,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La SFEN propose quelques explications techniques sur ce qui est arriv\u00e9 \u00e0 Taishan 1, l'un des deux EPR en fonctionnement en Chine. \n\nCes explications ne permettent pas de \"tout savoir\" d\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, mais permettent n\u00e9anmoins de comprendre :\n- que le probl\u00e8me vient tr\u00e8s probablement de \"trous\" (fissures, par exemple) dans les gaines des assemblages combustible (lire l'article pour comprendre ce qu'est un \"assemblage\"),\n- que ce cas de figure (des \"fuites\" en provenance des assemblages) est pr\u00e9vu dans le dessin du r\u00e9acteur, puisqu'il existe des dispositifs pour \u00e9vacuer du circuit primaire (celui dans lequel baignent les assemblages o\u00f9 a lieu la r\u00e9action nucl\u00e9aire) les produits de fission qui viendrait \u00e0 y arriver (dont les gaz rares),\n- qu'ensuite tout est question de quantit\u00e9 (donc de nombre de crayons concern\u00e9s),\n- \u00e0 ce stade la cause n'est pas connue. Les gaines peuvent avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 \"perc\u00e9es\" par un objet qui n'aurait pas du se trouver l\u00e0 (une vis qui serait sortie de son logement et se retrouverait en circulation dans le circuit primaire, par exemple), par la fatigue due \u00e0 des vibrations, par un d\u00e9faut de fabrication...\n- qu'un arr\u00eat du r\u00e9acteur \u00e0 cause de ce probl\u00e8me ne serait pas un accident mais une \"panne\" (exactement comme une voiture qui doit s'arr\u00eater parce qu'un voyant sur la pression des pneus s'allume n'est pas en situation d'accident mais de panne). Les pannes ne sont \u00e9videmment pas souhaitables, mais c'est un autre d\u00e9bat !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6811190103579340800,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6811190104204304384,urn:li:activity:6811190104204304384,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 30, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6811190104204304384,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6811190104204304384,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Au niveau de la plan\u00e8te dans son ensemble, non seulement il le peut, mais il le doit pour que nous parvenions \u00e0 limiter une d\u00e9rive climatique qui, compte tenu de l'inertie du syst\u00e8me, va malheureusement s'amplifier \u00e0 l'avenir quoi que nous fassions.\n\nCette neutralit\u00e9, c'est le moment o\u00f9 les sources de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre dues \u00e0 l'activit\u00e9 humaine sont \u00e9quilibr\u00e9es par les puits augment\u00e9s (ou pas) par l'activit\u00e9 humaine. \n\nAu niveau des pays, cette neutralit\u00e9 conserve une d\u00e9finition, qui est que les puits du territoire \u00e9quilibrent les sources du territoire. C'est elle qui sert de cadre aux engagements pris dans le cadre de l'accrd de Paris, par exemple.\n\nSi l'on descend un cran plus bas, Garges les Gonesse, Morteau, le Parc R\u00e9gional de Corse ou Libourne (sans parler de Paris) peuvent-ils \u00eatre \"neutres en carbone\", ou simplement concourir \u00e0 une neutralit\u00e9 globale ? \n\nC'est la question \u00e0 laquelle tente de r\u00e9pondre cette nouvelle publication de Carbone 4, r\u00e9sultant d'une \u00e9tude r\u00e9alis\u00e9e avec le concours de l\u2019ADEME, France Strat\u00e9gie, la Banque des Territoires (Groupe Caisse des D\u00e9p\u00f4ts) et Transdev Ile-de-France. \n\nUn webinaire aura lieu le 30 juin pour en pr\u00e9senter les r\u00e9sultats. 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Si, pour rembourser une dette de 85000 euros, vous annoncez \u00e0 votre banquier que vous avez trouv\u00e9 1 euro de revenu, il est peu probable qu'il consid\u00e8re que cela change fondamentalement le probl\u00e8me.\n\n- actuellement, la d\u00e9forestation est responsable de 10% des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre chaque ann\u00e9e. Cette d\u00e9forestation a un d\u00e9terminant principal : supprimer des for\u00eats pour obtenir des surfaces agricoles. D\u00e8s lors, une question se pose : est-ce que toute surface consacr\u00e9e \u00e0 des cultures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques ne revient pas \u00e0 aggraver la d\u00e9forestation, par effet domino ? Si cette m\u00eame surface \u00e9tait consacr\u00e9e \u00e0 de la nourriture, n'\u00e9viterait-on pas la d\u00e9forestation associ\u00e9e ? Or, si elle induit de la d\u00e9forestation (directement ou indirectement), la production d'un agrocarburant engendre plus d'\u00e9missions par litre que le p\u00e9trole.\n\nDans son rapport \"pouvoir voler en 2050\", The Shift Project et SUPAERO DECARBO (qui est constitu\u00e9 d'anciens \u00e9l\u00e8ves de l'ISAE, et exer\u00e7ant actuellement dans le secteur a\u00e9ronautique, donc ce ne sont pas des \"peintres\" il me semble) ont rappel\u00e9 que, m\u00eame en \"ramassant\" toutes les am\u00e9liorations techniques \u00e0 venir de mani\u00e8re tr\u00e8s tr\u00e8s tr\u00e8s tr\u00e8s optimiste, il fallait que le trafic a\u00e9rien d\u00e9croisse pour que ce secteur se conforme \u00e0 l'accord de Paris. Si cette conclusion ne vous semble pas fond\u00e9e, elle se r\u00e9fute avec des \"contre-calculs\" probants, et rien d'autre. 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energy transition still inadequate" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6810091349904252928,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Alors que les Verts allemands montent dans les sondages en vue de l'\u00e9lection f\u00e9d\u00e9rale qui aura lieu outre-Rhin en septembre (et qui conduira \u00e0 d\u00e9signer la personne qui prendra la suite d'Angela Merkel), l'\u00e9quivalent germanique de la Cour des comptes d\u00e9clare que \"Secure and affordable electricity supply is more and more at risk \".\n\nOn trouve aussi, dans le communiqu\u00e9 de presse (le document lui-m\u00eame n'est disponible qu'en allemand) la phrase \"Aspects on security of supply and system security such as grid expansion and storage, grid maintenance and stability or supply disruptions are not or only little covered by indicators\". 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"\"Voir la terre de l'espace (...) change votre rapport \u00e0 l'humanit\u00e9\" : telle est la citation de Jeff Bezos rapport\u00e9e par franceinfo dans ce reportage qui s'enthousiasme pour les vols \"touristiques\" dans l'espace, et pr\u00e9sente implicitement les milliardaires qui d\u00e9pensent beaucoup d'argent dans la construction de leurs fus\u00e9es comme des nouveaux h\u00e9ros des temps modernes.\n\nLe budget de Blue Origin pour d\u00e9velopper ce vaisseau spatial est de 200 millions de dollars (empreinte carbone du d\u00e9veloppement \u2248\u00a065000 tonnes de CO2), et un tir utilise 50 tonnes de carburant et comburant, soit quelques centaines de tonnes de CO2 pour sa production et son utilisation. \n\nAvec quelques centaines de \"touristes spatiaux\" sur la dur\u00e9e du programme, cela met ce Disneyland de l'espace \u00e0 500 \u00e0 1000 tonnes de CO2 par voyage (soit 50 \u00e0 100 fois l'empreinte carbone annuelle d'un fran\u00e7ais, ou encore au moins 5 fois le budget carbone \"2\u00b0C\" d'un \u00eatre humain qui nait aujourd'hui pour la totalit\u00e9 de sa vie).\n\nEt les utilisateurs de ces gadgets, qui ne revendiquent m\u00eame pas d'utilit\u00e9 sociale (juste du tourisme), sont par ailleurs parfois pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s comme des \"h\u00e9ros de l'environnement\" : Amazon sera neutre en carbone et 100% ENR, Branson a financ\u00e9 des prix pour \"sauver l'humanit\u00e9 du CO2\", sans parler de Musk qui va \u00e9lectrifier toutes les voitures et nous d\u00e9barrasser du vilain p\u00e9trole.\n\nMais si, pour \"changer son rapport \u00e0 l'humanit\u00e9\" (ou accomplir un r\u00eave d'enfant, autre citation du m\u00eame milliardaire dans ce petit clip) il faut 500 tonnes de CO2 par personne, ca pose un petit probl\u00e8me d'ordre de grandeur, non, messieurs-dames de la r\u00e9daction de France Info ?\n\nBezos restera Bezos. L'argent laisse rarement ceux qui en ont beaucoup totalement indiff\u00e9rents, surtout dans le contexte am\u00e9ricain o\u00f9 la r\u00e9ussite financi\u00e8re est consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme l'accomplissement personnel ultime. Qu'il soit un peu m\u00e9galo est donc dans l'ordre normal des choses.\n\nCe qui m'\u00e9tonne le plus, dans cette affaire, c'est l'absence totale de recul d'une radio financ\u00e9e avec l'argent des imp\u00f4ts de personnes qui, pour l'essentiel, gagnent en un mois ce que Bezos gagne en une seconde. Ce n'est pas vraiment la peine que la m\u00eame radio s'\u00e9meuve ensuite de l'absence de mesures pertinentes en ce qui concerne le climat." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6809776956981186560,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6809776957622890496,urn:li:activity:6809776957622890496,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 235, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6809776957622890496,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6809776957622890496,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": 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en mati\u00e8re d'environnement, et singuli\u00e8rement de climat et de biodiversit\u00e9.\n\nLe d\u00e9cret d'application de cet article vient de para\u00eetre, et Carbone 4 en a fait une rapide synth\u00e8se : https://lnkd.in/dQxS-kT\n\nCette exigence renforc\u00e9e reste modeste. Aucune entreprise ne risque de se voir infliger une amende massive pour non respect de l'obligation (l'entorse au droit de la concurrence reste donc une affaire bien plus grave que de d\u00e9truire notre vaisseau spatial commun, il faut \u00eatre s\u00e9rieux quand m\u00eame). \n\nPar ailleurs, l'absence de normalisation des m\u00e9thodes (et de m\u00e9thodes cal\u00e9es avant tout sur le probl\u00e8me physique \u00e0 r\u00e9soudre, et non avant tout sur l'envie de se rassurer \u00e0 bon compte) ouvre grand la porte \u00e0 une vague de greenwashing, dont la croissance, aujourd'hui, ne pose absolument pas question !\n\nIl est dommage que cet article n'ait pas pr\u00e9vu une obligation de faire monter les collaborateurs d'une entreprise en comp\u00e9tence face au probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter, car c'est bien l\u00e0 un des noeuds gordiens du probl\u00e8me. Et un autre noeud est de faire monter le gendarme en comp\u00e9tence (autorit\u00e9s de march\u00e9, commissaires aux comptes, etc), faute de quoi il sera tr\u00e8s simple de balader tout le monde en faisant croire que les grandes manoeuvres sont en cours, alors qu'en pratique on ne change que marginalement les proc\u00e9d\u00e9s, march\u00e9s, organisations, et chaines de valeur. \n\nC'est donc un premier pas bienvenu. Mais ce n'est qu'un premier pas (ou un deuxi\u00e8me, allez) d'une longue marche..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6809048373329436672,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6809048373975367680,urn:li:activity:6809048373975367680,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 16, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6809048373975367680,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6809048373975367680,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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tirer ?\n\n- que cela offre l'occasion aux entreprises de r\u00e9duire leur surface de bureaux, ces derniers devenant moins n\u00e9cessaires. Il y a fort \u00e0 parier que beaucoup vont chercher \u00e0 le faire, puisque c'est des \u00e9conomies de charges. Les investisseurs dans ce segment de l'immobilier ont peut-\u00eatre un peu de mouron \u00e0 se faire, par contre l'\u00e9nergie dans le tertiaire pourrait \"en profiter\" pour diminuer,\n\n- que l'\u00e9quation pour les les transports en commun est plus compliqu\u00e9e. 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qu'il faut lutter contre le changement climatique ? Tout le rebours, soulignent les auteurs de cet article publi\u00e9 dans The Conversation, qui expliquent en quoi la technique employ\u00e9e pour \u00e9valuer les dommages \u00e9conomiques possibles du changement climatique minimise par construction la valorisation \u00e9conomique de ces dommages. En fait, le syst\u00e8me climatique \u00e9tant gratuit par convention en \u00e9conomie, le fait de l'endommager ne peut valoir que... z\u00e9ro. Et donc imaginer les pertes de PIB dues \u00e0 l'alt\u00e9ration de ce syst\u00e8me ne peut relever que d'un choix arbitraire ou conventionnel.\n\nEn outre, l'\u00e9conomie ne dit pas tout : on peut tr\u00e8s bien pr\u00e9server le PIB en dictature, dans un monde sans amour et sans joie, ou avec des gens en mauvais \u00e9tat g\u00e9n\u00e9ral (surpoids, drogue, etc). \n\nLa conclusion de cette affaire est assez logique : ce n'est pas l'\u00e9conomie qui peut justifier de passer \u00e0 l'action en mati\u00e8re de climat. L'\u00e9conomie ne peut, au mieux, que nous aider \u00e0 orienter l'action. 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gros) de l'empreinte carbone de la France : c'est ce que \"p\u00e8se\" le tourisme (pr\u00e9-covid) de notre pays en 2018, selon une analyse qui vient d'\u00eatre effectu\u00e9e par Carbone 4 et la SCET (Services Conseil Expertises et Territoires) pour l'ADEME : https://lnkd.in/dhG8dmQ\n\nCe n'est pas tout de se gargariser d'\u00eatre la premi\u00e8re destination touristique mondiale, cela va aussi avec quelques \u00e9missions venant du transport a\u00e9rien et routier, des \u00e9tablissements \u00e0 chauffer et refroidir, de la nourriture \u00e0 produire, \u00e0 transporter et \u00e0 cuisiner, des colifichets \u00e0 produire, et m\u00eame du carburant des dameuses.\n\n15% de l'empreinte carbone pour 7% du PIB : manifestement, le tourisme hexagonal sous sa forme actuelle n'est pas du tout du bon c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la barri\u00e8re dans un monde qui cherche sa neutralit\u00e9 carbone. Au demeurant, un monde plus sobre sera un monde o\u00f9 d'une part la productivit\u00e9 du travail (qui peut se r\u00e9sumer \u00e0 l'adjonction de machines aux hommes) va baisser, ce qui supprimera du temps libre toutes choses \u00e9gales par ailleurs, et d'autre part un monde o\u00f9 le d\u00e9placement lointain et pas cher sera moins facile.\n\nCela rejoint, sans grande surprise, des conclusions issues du travail de The Shift Project sur la culture, dont un sous-ensemble important des activit\u00e9s (festivals, mus\u00e9es, lieux remarquables) est en fait du... tourisme : https://lnkd.in/dSHYvSD\n\nNotre pays serait donc bien avis\u00e9 de se pencher dare-dare sur la mani\u00e8re de faire vivre autrement une partie des gens qui en d\u00e9pendent." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6808637759092203520,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Avec le r\u00e9chauffement climatique, on dira de plus en plus \"canicule\" et \"s\u00e9cheresse\". La Californie, qui avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 un peu d\u00e9fray\u00e9 la chronique l'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re avec des feux de for\u00eat in\u00e9dits, fait l'objet d'une \"urgence s\u00e9cheresse\" dans 41 des 58 cont\u00e9s depuis fin mai, avec des r\u00e9servoirs d'eau qui sont \u00e0 des niveaux exceptionnellement bas et quelques raisons de se faire des cheveux blancs (ou br\u00fbl\u00e9s !) pour les mois \u00e0 venir.\n\nL'Allemagne conna\u00eet \u00e9galement une situation tendue concernant l'eau (https://lnkd.in/d7TP-Nu ), apr\u00e8s 2 ann\u00e9es tr\u00e8s s\u00e8ches, comme en France.\n\nLa province du Guangdong, en Chine, voit pour sa part son r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique souffrir, \u00e0 cause d'une saison des pluies qui a eu du retard (moins d'hydro\u00e9lectricit\u00e9) et de temp\u00e9ratures \u00e9lev\u00e9es (plus d'air conditionn\u00e9) : https://lnkd.in/dP9isxu\n\nAlors que l'eau, c'est la vie, tout cela va malheureusement s'aggraver aux moyennes latitudes quoi que nous fassions, \u00e0 cause de la structure et de l'inertie du changement climatique. Dans notre pays, s'adapter du moins mal possible \u00e0 ce qui nous attend prendra 2 g\u00e9n\u00e9rations, en outre \u00e0 moyens d\u00e9croissants \u00e0 cause de ce qui va se passer sur l'\u00e9nergie. Nous savons que ca va nous tomber dessus, nous savons quoi dans les grandes lignes, mais nous ne nous en occupons pas plus que ca... Nous sommes en train de rejouer le coup du covid, en bien pire !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6808287999189647360,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6808287999638429696,urn:li:activity:6808287999638429696,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 94, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6808287999638429696,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6808287999638429696,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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transports en commun, eux, sont loin d'avoir retrouv\u00e9 leur niveau d'avant covid.\n\nCertes, une partie des gens qui ne prennent plus le bus, le tram et le m\u00e9tro utilisent le v\u00e9lo (question carbone c'est aussi bien), la marche \u00e0 pied (c'est mieux), ou la trottinette (c'est moins bien), mais aussi... la voiture (et l\u00e0 c'est beaucoup moins bien pour le climat, m\u00eame si elle est \u00e9lectrique).\n\nA ce sujet de court terme - qui est que les habitants des grandes villes se d\u00e9tournent de ce qui leur \u00e9viterait pourtant le plus de futurs ennuis, climatiques ceux-l\u00e0 - va s'en ajouter un autre : si le t\u00e9l\u00e9travail se g\u00e9n\u00e9ralise, les grandes villes pourraient perdre de la population. 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Ce dispositif peut prendre plusieurs formes, mais le plus simple est de faire comme avec la TVA : les produits import\u00e9s sont tax\u00e9s \u00e0 la hauteur du cout des \u00e9missions qu'ils auraient eu \u00e0 inclure dans les charges s'ils avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 fabriqu\u00e9s en Europe, et \u00e0 l'inverse les produits export\u00e9s sont \"d\u00e9tax\u00e9s\" au passage de la fronti\u00e8re pour se retrouver \u00e0 parit\u00e9 sur le march\u00e9 mondial avec des produits fabriqu\u00e9s dans des zones sans contrainte sur les \u00e9missions.\n\nComme il est difficile de calculer de mani\u00e8re diff\u00e9renci\u00e9e le contenu carbone pour chaque produit manufactur\u00e9 complexe (une voiture, un meuble ou m\u00eame un plat d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9par\u00e9) sans disposer d'informations pr\u00e9cises de la part du producteur et de toute sa chaine de valeur, il est logique que dans un premier temps cette taxe aux fronti\u00e8res s'applique \u00e0 des produits de base (ciment, acier...), qui ne demandent pas d'assemblage de composants produits un peu partout, et qui font l'objet de processus de fabrication assez standard, donc avec des \u00e9missions qui se calculent plus facilement.\n\nDans le cadre des trait\u00e9s en vigueur sur le commerce, il n'est pas possible de discriminer dans un pays adh\u00e9rent au trait\u00e9 la vente d'un produit en fonction de son lieu de fabrication. 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Tout ce que nous souhaitons (et le reste) est normalement mentionn\u00e9 dans l'annonce ci-dessous.\n\nNB : les autres offres publi\u00e9es sont disponibles sur :\nhttps://lnkd.in/dgMQJaV pour Carbon 4 Finance\nhttps://lnkd.in/dwpjQ7N pour la partie \"autre\" (conseil, formation, MyCO2, fonctions transverses)" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6807592496542056448,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6807592496923717633,urn:li:activity:6807592496923717633,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 11, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6807592496923717633,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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} }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6807559605493764096,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le b\u00e9ton et l'acier, qui sont \u00e0 la base de la construction \"moderne\", c'est plein de carbone. Du reste, \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle mondiale, le ciment c'est 7% des \u00e9missions plan\u00e9taires (les voitures 6%) et l'acier 4% environ (comme la flotte mondiale de camions). \n\nOn ne parle donc pas de cacahu\u00e8tes, et pour les remplacer tout le monde songe aux mat\u00e9riaux biosourc\u00e9s. Mais voil\u00e0 : cela consiste \u00e0 remplacer du sous-sol (les mines de fer, de charbon, et les gisements de calcaire) par du sol (n\u00e9cessaire pour faire pousser bois et fibres). Y aura-t-il assez de sol pour remplacer tout ce qui ne nous convient pas dans un monde qui se d\u00e9carbone par du \"naturel\", sans limiter les volumes construits ?\n\nA l'horizon 2030, il n'y a \u00e9videmment pas que cela comme facteur limitant : il faut aussi des comp\u00e9tences, des fili\u00e8res, des techniques comptables qui soient adapt\u00e9es (savoir si le bois est un puits ou une source de carbone est un exercice complexe), etc. \n\nLe Hub des Prescripteurs Bas Carbone (https://lnkd.in/dj7GQyE) vous propose d'en d\u00e9battre le 29 juin prochain, dans l'apr\u00e8s-midi, au cours d'un webinaire. 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"urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7122649564684005186)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theconversation.com \u2022 8 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: En France, les pluies de mai permettront-elles de mieux affronter la s\u00e9cheresse estivale ? by theconversation.com", "actionTarget": "https://theconversation.com/en-france-les-pluies-de-mai-permettront-elles-de-mieux-affronter-la-secheresse-estivale-161482" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "En France, les\u00a0pluies de\u00a0mai permettront-elles de mieux affronter la\u00a0s\u00e9cheresse estivale\u00a0?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6806876571169763328,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 828, "length": 14, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Violaine", "lastName": "Bault", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACpFxDIBnf5MAICsrkEQQOP2vqI6X7eCULA", "occupation": "Hydrog\u00e9ologue chez BRGM", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:709215282", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAACpFxDIBnf5MAICsrkEQQOP2vqI6X7eCULA", "publicIdentifier": "violaine-bault-616621179", "trackingId": "OjKWdI6oToaZJSvCVZ62NQ==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "L'eau, c'est la vie. La pluie a beau rendre moroses les pr\u00e9sentateurs m\u00e9t\u00e9o, et \u00eatre gratuite dans les bilans des entreprises, sans elle nous ne serions pas l\u00e0 pour nous plaindre du temps maussade ou des exportations qui ne sont pas au niveau.\n\nNotre pays a connu un d\u00e9ficit tr\u00e8s important de pr\u00e9cipitations \u00e0 la fin de l'hiver et au d\u00e9but du printemps (mars et avril), conduisant une fraction significative du pays a d\u00e9marrer le mois de mai avec des nappes phr\u00e9atiques ayant un niveau \"mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment bas \u00e0 tr\u00e8s bas\", \u00e9crit le BRGM : https://lnkd.in/dRdE9kd\n\nL'eau tomb\u00e9e - opportun\u00e9ment - en mai permet-elle un \"retour \u00e0 la normale\" avant de d\u00e9marrer la saison estivale, plus s\u00e8che que le reste de l'ann\u00e9e ? 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8591915621078671146)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "euractiv.com \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Helsinki bets on electrification to decarbonise heating by euractiv.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/helsinki-bets-on-electrification-to-decarbonise-heating/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Helsinki bets on electrification to decarbonise heating" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6806107798754136064,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Selon Euractiv, le chauffage urbain d'Helsinki, auquel 90% des immeubles de la ville sont connect\u00e9s, fonctionne essentiellement au gaz et au charbon. La ville a donc lanc\u00e9 un concours, dot\u00e9 d'un prix de 1 million d'euros, pour disposer de propositions pour d\u00e9carboner ce chauffage urbain. Condition impos\u00e9e : ne pas recourir \u00e0 la biomasse, consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme \"non durable\" pour cet usage (consid\u00e9ration qui s'argumente solidement).\n\nC'est la pompe \u00e0 chaleur (PAC) qui tient le haut du pav\u00e9 dans la solution gagnante. Cette derni\u00e8re peut \u00eatre utilis\u00e9e en t\u00eate de r\u00e9seau pour fournir de la chaleur haute temp\u00e9rature, notamment si elle est associ\u00e9e \u00e0 de la g\u00e9othermie moyenne ou profonde. Incidemment cette technique peut aussi contribuer \u00e0 d\u00e9carboner la production de chaleur dans l'industrie (mais ce n'est pas le propos d'Euractiv) en rempla\u00e7ant des combustibles fossiles.\n\nLa PAC peut aussi \u00eatre utilis\u00e9e dans les b\u00e2timents de la ville, seule ou en compl\u00e9ment avec le r\u00e9seau de chaleur urbain. Ces PAC demandent de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, qui doit \u00eatre d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e. 20% des \u00e9lectrons finlandais viennent de combustibles fossiles (surtout du gaz), mais nucl\u00e9aire et ENR doivent les remplacer \u00e0 terme (un nouveau r\u00e9acteur a \u00e9t\u00e9 command\u00e9 \u00e0 Rosatom apr\u00e8s les p\u00e9rip\u00e9ties d'Areva)." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6806107798754136064,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6806107799324561408,urn:li:activity:6806107799324561408,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 30, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6806107799324561408,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6805920503144968192,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le syst\u00e8me europ\u00e9en des quotas n\u00e9gociables (qui ne comprend pas qu'un march\u00e9) a \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9 en 2005. A cette \u00e9poque, il devait \u00eatre le \"fer de lance\" de la baisse des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre en Europe. 16 ans plus tard, force est de constater que son r\u00f4le dans la baisse (modeste) de nos \u00e9missions n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 la hauteur des discours qui ont pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 son entr\u00e9e en vigueur.\n\nRappelons que ce syst\u00e8me n'est pas qu'un march\u00e9 : un quota est avant tout une autorisation administrative d'\u00e9mettre, qui se trouve \u00eatre \u00e9changeable, donc non nominative. Si un assujetti en a plus que ce qui est n\u00e9cessaire, il peut donc le vendre \u00e0 un autre qui en a besoin. C'est le prix de cette vente qui s'appelle \"le prix du quota\", mais tous les assujettis ne les ont pas tous achet\u00e9s \u00e0 ce prix l\u00e0 ! Il y a des attributions gratuites, ou aux ench\u00e8res mais \u00e0 adjug\u00e9es plus bas.\n\nD\u00e9sormais, la tonne de CO2 \"du march\u00e9\" s'\u00e9change \u00e0 50 euros. Est-ce le signe que la r\u00e9demption carbonique est en vue ? Les volumes concern\u00e9s et ce prix sont suffisants pour permettre quelques am\u00e9liorations ici et l\u00e0, mais 50 euros reste inf\u00e9rieur d'un facteur 100 \u00e0 ce qui serait n\u00e9cessaire pour totalement d\u00e9carboner l'\u00e9conomie par les seuls m\u00e9canismes de march\u00e9. 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"accessibilityText": "Open article: Carbon4 Finance wins the Eagle Alpha ESG Hackathon by carbon4finance.com", "actionTarget": "http://www.carbon4finance.com/carbon4-finance-wins-the-eagle-alpha-esg-hackathon/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Carbon4 Finance wins the Eagle Alpha ESG Hackathon" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "With its database Carbon Impact Analytics, Carbon 4 Finance just won a hackathon organized by Eagle Alpha, that gathered 150 competitors. \n\nThe very good news, in the present case, is that an analysis including scope 3 emissions for all the companies we assess (Carbon Impact Analytics) was considered \"more relevant\" by the jury. Carbon 4 Finance has long considered that not taking scope 3 into account was misleading regarding transition risks. \n \nBy a funny coincidence, this trophy was awarded at the same moment that the ruling of a Dutch court against Shell, stating that this company was accountable for its scope 3 emissions (https://lnkd.in/dg3EQDx ).\n\nIt confirms the importance of calculating this scope 3 (which is feasible with the appropriate methods) when it is not reported by the company." } }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6805121199056678912,urn:li:activity:6805121199056678912,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 4, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6805121199056678912,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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15 juin \u00e0 14h)" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6805112234147110912,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La sant\u00e9, c'est plein de carbone. Il faut construire les \u00e9tablissements (ciment, acier = industrie), les chauffer (gaz, fioul), les \u00e9lectrifier (un peu de charbon et de gaz chez nous), les \u00e9quiper (lits, appareils de diagnostic et de biologie, etc = industrie), les alimenter (m\u00e9dicaments, compresses, seringues, draps, v\u00eatements jetables, repas = industrie + agriculture), traiter leurs d\u00e9chets, et permettre \u00e0 tous les gens qui ont quelque chose \u00e0 y faire (personnel, patients, visiteurs, et ministre \u00e0 l'occasion :) ) d'y venir et d'en repartir (p\u00e9trole).\n\nR\u00e9sultat des courses : notre syst\u00e8me de soins, c'est, en ordre de grandeur, 5% de notre empreinte carbone. Question : dans un monde \"neutre en carbone\", donc avec beaucoup moins de transports, de consommables, et d'\u00e9nergie qu'aujourd'hui, il ressemble \u00e0 quoi ? \n\nTelle est la question qui sera abord\u00e9e le 15 juin prochain, avec la pr\u00e9sentation du rapport provisoire du Shift Project sur la sant\u00e9, suivie d'ateliers collaboratifs r\u00e9serv\u00e9s aux professionnel(le)s du secteur.\n\nCe rapport s'inscrit dans le cadre du plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU ), qui couvre 15 secteurs et quelques domaines transverses." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6805112234147110912,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6805112234658824194,urn:li:activity:6805112234658824194,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 28, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { 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"textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Si la disposition anti-greenwashing rajout\u00e9e dans la loi climat au moment de son passage \u00e0 l'Assembl\u00e9e \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 en vigueur, cet \u00e9cran d'accueil d'Amazon (consult\u00e9 il y a 2 jours) aurait pu lui valoir un d\u00e9bat avec le juge !\n\nPour que l'affirmation de ce bandeau publicitaire soit fond\u00e9e, il faudrait :\n- que 100% des locaux d'Amazon soient physiquement aliment\u00e9s \u00e0 100% par des ENR (ce n'est pas le cas, on compte aussi les certificats de garantie d'origine dedans, qui ne changent pas l'alimentation physique)\n- qu'ils soient construit avec des mat\u00e9riaux et des engins de chantier fabriqu\u00e9s et aliment\u00e9s \u00e0 100% avec des ENR, \n- que les transports command\u00e9s par Amazon fonctionnent \u00e0 100% aux ENR\n- que 100% des produits et services vendus par Amazon soient fabriqu\u00e9s (y compris le plastique et l'acier sous-jacents) avec uniquement des ENR\n- et que 100% 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Rappelons que pour les producteurs concern\u00e9s - incluant la Russie et le Moyen Orient - nous sommes en comp\u00e9tition avec les importations des \u00e9mergents.\n\nRappelons aussi que, depuis 50 ans, le volume de p\u00e9trole disponible est le premier facteur limitant de l'\u00e9conomie mondiale (https://lnkd.in/gTFCeG3 ).\n\nEt pendant ce temps le mot p\u00e9trole n'existe m\u00eame pas dans la feuille de route de la commissaire europ\u00e9enne en charge de l'\u00e9nergie... 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grand public\" les cons\u00e9quences sur la fili\u00e8re nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7aise de deux des d\u00e9bats d'actualit\u00e9 au sein des instances europ\u00e9ennes : celui sur la \"taxonomie des investissements verts\", et celui sur la lib\u00e9ralisation du march\u00e9 de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9.\n\nOn pardonnera \u00e0 l'autrice les quelques exag\u00e9rations et le titre sensationnaliste, pour retenir qu'un journal historiquement plut\u00f4t marqu\u00e9 \u00e0 gauche (https://lnkd.in/dna4uK3 ), donc s'adressant alors \u00e0 un lectorat qui est devenu plut\u00f4t \u00e0 dominante antinucl\u00e9aire (ce n'est pas moi qui le dis, ce sont les sondages !) prend d\u00e9sormais ouvertement position pour cette fili\u00e8re \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. \n\nLe fait en tant que tel n'est ni r\u00e9jouissant ni un drame. 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(Liste des questions plus bas dans le descriptif). Audio :..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "#8 Jancovici a r\u00e9pondu \u00e0 vos questions - 26/05/2021" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6804463687169007616,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Puisque TF1 vous propose de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 vos questions en direct pendant le 20h (https://lnkd.in/duxkuqC ), il n'y a pas de raison que je ne fasse pas (presque) pareil ! Le 8\u00e8 \u00e9pisode de la s\u00e9rie vient d'\u00eatre mis en ligne.\n\nBon, la dur\u00e9e de chaque r\u00e9ponse est un poil plus longue :), et il n'est pas sur que les sujets trait\u00e9s passionnent autant de monde, mais l'avantage est que vous pouvez consommer ca \u00e0 petite vitesse si vous le souhaitez.\n\nNous avons limit\u00e9 la r\u00e9solution \u00e0 360 pixels par pouce (mais ca supporte tr\u00e8s bien 144) pour vous \u00e9viter la tentation de la HD pour simplement mieux voir le d\u00e9sordre sur les \u00e9tag\u00e8res de mon bureau :)" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6804463687169007616,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6804463687651336192,urn:li:activity:6804463687651336192,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 17, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"urn:li:fsd_company:11435106", "trackingId": "/SSb5xFtTgK4YVNDcqedtQ==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Le \"Judicial system Netherlands\" met \u00e0 disposition, en anglais, un jugement qu'il vient de rendre contre Shell, lui ordonnant de baisser ses \u00e9missions de CO2 de 45% de 2019 \u00e0 2030 : https://lnkd.in/dg3EQDx\n\nLes finances de Shell n'en souffriront pas trop : l'entreprise doit juste rembourser les frais de justice \u00e0 ses adversaires, et il n'y a aucune p\u00e9nalit\u00e9 pour non respect de l'obligation de baisse des \u00e9missions.\n\nLa novation est ailleurs : le juge consid\u00e8re que Shell ne peut pas ignorer que ses barils de p\u00e9trole ne sont pas destin\u00e9s \u00e0 servir de presse-papiers, mais seront br\u00fbl\u00e9s dans un moteur ou une chaudi\u00e8re, et donc contribueront aux \u00e9missions de CO2. Shell a donc implicitement la responsabilit\u00e9 de vendre \"autre chose\", qui soit compatible avec une baisse des \u00e9missions globales.\n\nSi ce point de vue fait jurisprudence, toute entreprise devra non seulement mesurer, mais agir sur ses \u00e9missions indirectes, faute de quoi le juge pourra la rappeler \u00e0 l'ordre.\n\nNB : Carbon4 Finance int\u00e8gre depuis toujours le scope 3 dans sa notation des entreprises, y compris dans le secteur oil and gas : https://lnkd.in/dDXWQ2Y C'est toute la diff\u00e9rence entre une approche \"risque\" et une approche \"je compte n'importe quoi pourvu que je puisse dire que j'ai compt\u00e9 quelque chose\" !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6803959457148620801,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6803959457727430656,urn:li:activity:6803959457727430656,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, 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Pas que : il faut 50 \u00e0 400 millions d'ann\u00e9es pour former ce \"condens\u00e9 de soleil pass\u00e9\" (https://lnkd.in/djAcDUP ) et donc son extraction de la croute terrestre ne peut ni cro\u00eetre ind\u00e9finiment ni m\u00eame rester ind\u00e9finiment constante, nous disent les math\u00e9matiques.\n\nA la demande du Minist\u00e8re des arm\u00e9es (nous avons parfois des fr\u00e9quentations exotiques !), The Shift Project a fait conduire par 3 experts du secteur p\u00e9trolier un minutieux travail d'analyse d'une base de donn\u00e9es tr\u00e8s exhaustive des champs p\u00e9troliers (exploit\u00e9s ou non) dans le monde pour en d\u00e9duire un pronostic sur \"l'\u00e9volution la plus probable\" de la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re \u00e0 l'avenir si la seule contrainte est g\u00e9ologique. \n\nLe r\u00e9sultat tient en une phrase : La production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re totale des principaux fournisseurs actuels de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne (qui inclut tous les grands producteurs mondiaux) risque de s\u2019\u00e9tablir dans le courant de la d\u00e9cennie 2030 \u00e0 un niveau inf\u00e9rieur de 10 \u00e0 20 % \u00e0 celui atteint en 2019. Les \u00e9missions vont donc baisser... mais peut-\u00eatre pas pour une raison bien comprise de tous." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6803723519122268160,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6803723519868841984,urn:li:activity:6803723519868841984,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 40, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6803723519868841984,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6803723519868841984,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Accord de Paris demande aux signataires de faire ce qu'il faut pour que la d\u00e9rive climatique soit limit\u00e9e \u00e0 un r\u00e9chauffement de 1,5\u00b0C d'ici \u00e0 2100.\n\nL'Organisation M\u00e9t\u00e9orologique Mondiale vient de publier un communiqu\u00e9 de presse dans lequel elle indique que cette \u00e9l\u00e9vation de temp\u00e9rature, qui se fait toujours en r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 la moyenne dite \"pr\u00e9industrielle\" (avant que ne commence le r\u00e9chauffement du aux hommes), a une probabilit\u00e9 de 40% d'\u00eatre franchie dans les 5 prochaines ann\u00e9es. \n\nCela signifie que chaque ann\u00e9e qui passe nous rapproche de la \"mort\" formelle de cet engagement (\u00e0 1,5\u00b0C). En fait, \u00e0 cause de l'inertie du CO2 dans l'air, nous savons d\u00e9j\u00e0 que cette limite (1,5\u00b0C) sera franchie, la seule question \u00e9tant quand.\n\nLe premier probl\u00e8me \u00e0 ce moment l\u00e0 sera \u00e9videmment que les ennuis environnementaux seront encore plus forts. Il faudra y rajouter l'irritation ou la col\u00e8re du juge, de l'\u00e9lecteur, du client, du citoyen, quand tout ce beau monde r\u00e9alisera que les engagements \u00e0 \"\u00eatre compatibles 1,5\u00b0C\" pris par les \u00e9tats ou entreprises n'\u00e9taient, sauf exception, que de la com sans changement significatif aux processus, produits, march\u00e9s, organisations, modes de d\u00e9cision, projets, etc. Ce n'est pas ca qui va aider \u00e0 stabiliser la situation." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6803569146798866432,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6803569147520282625,urn:li:activity:6803569147520282625,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 58, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Notre volont\u00e9 de baisser les \u00e9missions, ou le sous-sol des pays qui nous fournissent de l'or noir ?\n\nThe Shift Project vous propose, demain Jeudi \u00e0 18h, un \u00e9clairage unique sur la question, issu de l'analyse d'une base de donn\u00e9es tr\u00e8s d\u00e9taill\u00e9e sur l'ensemble des champs p\u00e9troliers dans le monde (Rystad Energy).\n\nLadite analyse a \u00e9t\u00e9 conduite par plusieurs experts du domaine, dont l'ancien patron de l'exploration de Total.\n\nJe ne spoile pas le r\u00e9sultat, attendons demain !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6803350288813039616,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6803350289144389634,urn:li:activity:6803350289144389634,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 9, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Cet adjectif laisse entendre que l'on deviendrait seul ma\u00eetre de son destin, s'extrayant alors de tous les risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 notre approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique actuel. Malheureusement, \u00e0 bien y regarder ce terme ne peut pas devenir une r\u00e9alit\u00e9. \n\nPar exemple, quiconque utilise un objet contenant de l'acier (une chaise, une casserole, un robinet, un couteau...) n'est pas \"autonome\" : aucune collectivit\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise n'a de minerai de fer (qui n'est pas une ressource \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique il est vrai, mais qui doit venir d'ailleurs, avec du p\u00e9trole), ou de charbon m\u00e9tallurgique. \n\nQuiconque ach\u00e8te un produit manufactur\u00e9 ou qui se mange ach\u00e8te du p\u00e9trole, du gaz et du charbon (ayant fait fonctionner les industries ou transports \u00e0 l'amont), et il est peu probable que l'on voie demain matin un d\u00e9partement ou une r\u00e9gion disposer sur son sol de toute la chaine allant de la mine au produit fini, \u00e9nergie comprise.\n\nLe bon terme pour un territoire n'est donc pas l'autonomie, mais la r\u00e9silience (sujet d'\u00e9tude actuellement pour The Shift Project : https://lnkd.in/diZSF5w ). Et l'augmenter face aux d\u00e9fis pour l'avenir ne se r\u00e9sume pas \u00e0 installer des ENR \u00e9lectriques, sinon ca serait simple." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6802998080066076672,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6802998080481320961,urn:li:activity:6802998080481320961,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 85, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6802998080481320961,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6802998080481320961,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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organisme \"log\u00e9\" \u00e0 la Banque de France qui a pour mandat la supervision des banques et assurances, a conduit un exercice de \"stress tests\" sur la solidit\u00e9 des \u00e9tablissements bancaires et financiers vis-\u00e0)vis des \"risques climat\". \n\nCarbone 4 vous en propose un d\u00e9cryptage (en anglais) qui permet de comprendre ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 fait, et, du coup, quelles sont les limites (fortes en l'esp\u00e8ce) de l'exercice.\n\nLa bonne nouvelle, c'est de l'avoir fait. La mauvaise, c'est que les limites conduisent \u00e0 un r\u00e9sultat excessivement rassurant. Il faudrait donc rapidement le refaire avec une m\u00e9thode plus appropri\u00e9e !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6802540699561549824,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6802540699913859072,urn:li:activity:6802540699913859072,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 5, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6802540699913859072,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6802540699913859072,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"attributes": [ { "start": 15, "length": 14, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "jila", "lastName": "Varoquier", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABh8GWYB1MY_PjAeG98ygu729gPU8Pi5ug0", "occupation": "Journaliste chez Le Parisien", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:410786150", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAABh8GWYB1MY_PjAeG98ygu729gPU8Pi5ug0", "publicIdentifier": "jila-varoquier-5726a3b5", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1517617564072?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=8rbEESYNoyKivSkdhUG7nMu8bAwojvEMZ2su0ToVOF8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1517617564072?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=G5UA5A-MA1yi27QPORrCIyqiW840Dc154A_3YDCcxvU", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1517617564072?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=8NFlkWC8wfdHcEFtxHw5XzhAD4-9lAsL45NM6e4xTKc", "expiresAt": 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"height": 100 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1625869709060?e=1684972800&v=beta&t=CB7nTfpGva-qPyEsaiXfpsqsm9NBjNJp_-4q3i2Ypnc", "expiresAt": 1684972800000, "height": 400 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E0BAQFpVJld1P2Jzw/company-logo_" } }, "universalName": "le-parisien", "dashCompanyUrn": "urn:li:fsd_company:623589", "trackingId": "rkcOiJefSWK9dcLitjVe0A==" }, "type": "COMPANY_NAME" } ], "text": "Cet article de jila Varoquier dans Le Parisien n'est pas en libre acc\u00e8s. Mais le sont les 3 premi\u00e8res phrases du chap\u00f4, dans lequel l'hydrog\u00e8ne est qualifi\u00e9 d'\u00e9nergie renouvelable. Il faut aller dans le corps de l'article pour que l'on rappelle la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 : l'hydrog\u00e8ne, aujourd'hui, est fabriqu\u00e9 \u00e0 95% dans le monde avec des \u00e9nergies fossiles (le pourcentage n'est pas donn\u00e9, mais ca c'est un d\u00e9tail). \n\nLe premier proc\u00e9d\u00e9 (et \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s le seul utilis\u00e9 en France) est le \"steam methane reforming\", qui sch\u00e9matiquement consiste \u00e0 faire 2*H20 + CH4 -> 4*H2 + CO2 (rappelons que CH4 est le m\u00e9thane, constituant principal du gaz naturel).\n\nCette r\u00e9action est endothermique, c'est-\u00e0-dire qu'elle n\u00e9cessite un apport d'\u00e9nergie sous forme de chaleur. Cette chaleur est amen\u00e9e, en pareil cas, par la combustion du gaz qui n'est pas utilis\u00e9 comme mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re. L'ensemble n'est ni renouvelable (enfin il l'est si on patiente 50 millions d'ann\u00e9es, temps de formation du gaz fossile !) ni d\u00e9carbon\u00e9 (10 tonnes de CO2 par tonne d'hydrog\u00e8ne).\n\nIl aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 souhaitable que le chap\u00f4 ne pr\u00e9sente pas comme une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 d'aujourd'hui ce qui n'est qu'un r\u00eave pour demain, qui ne sera jamais atteint \u00e0 la bonne \u00e9chelle." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6802516033333665792,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6802516033795051520,urn:li:activity:6802516033795051520,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 110, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6802516033795051520,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, 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"text": "Neutralit\u00e9 carbone des villes\u00a0: le\u00a0v\u00e9lo 10\u00a0fois plus efficace que la\u00a0voiture \u00e9lectrique" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6802182549704593408,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Et si la meilleure voiture \u00e9lectrique \u00e9tait... un v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique ? La citadine \u00e9lectrique, en France, c'est 70 grammes de CO2 par km fabrication comprise. C'est mieux que les 180 de son \u00e9quivalent essence, mais beaucoup trop pour viser la neutralit\u00e9. En outre, la d\u00e9ployer rapidement demande :\n- de conserver une aci\u00e9rie importante (la production d'acier \u00e9met autant que les 2/3 du milliard de voitures dans le monde, et \u224820% sert aux transports)\n- de construire des batteries en quantit\u00e9 massive (l'AIE indiquait r\u00e9cemment qu'il fallait multiplier la production de nickel par 20 en 20 ans pour le sc\u00e9nario \"2\u00b0C\", pour l'essentiel pour des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques)\n- d'augmenter la puissance \u00e9lectrique pilotable (m\u00eame avec une charge intelligente), et cela viendra en plus de celle demand\u00e9e par l'\u00e9lectrification du chauffage, de l'industrie...\n\nSi le but est de baisser rapidement les \u00e9missions, non de sauver les constructeurs auto :), c'est une politique du v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique qu'il faut mener, indique cet article de The Conversation. De fait, cela demande, par v\u00e9hicule, 50 fois moins d'acier, et 100 fois moins de batterie et de puissance \u00e9lectrique. A moyens identiques, on substitue donc 50 fois plus vite...\n\nLe Shift Project avait conclu de mani\u00e8re identique : https://lnkd.in/gWp3VVt\n" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6802182549704593408,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6802182550086291456,urn:li:activity:6802182550086291456,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 289, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6802182550086291456,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6802182550086291456,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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bient\u00f4t interdite dans la publicit\u00e9 (loi climat et r\u00e9silience) - Gossement Avocats" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6801854830194241536,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Arnaud Gossement livre une analyse int\u00e9ressante d'un amendement gouvernemental qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 introduit dans la loi climat avant son vote au S\u00e9nat, et qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 adopt\u00e9. Cet amendement proscrit l'emploi de l'expression \"neutre en carbone\" dans toute publicit\u00e9, en s'appuyant sur un avis de l'Ademe qui adoptait le m\u00eame point de vue (https://lnkd.in/dS6sekA ). \n\nEt, plus largement, l'amendement proscrit le fait qu'un produit soit pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 comme \"d\u00e9pourvu de cons\u00e9quences n\u00e9gatives sur le climat\" (donc \"z\u00e9ro CO2\", et autres formulations analogues).\n\nLa question que l'on peut se poser est de savoir ce que d\u00e9cidera le juge si une publicit\u00e9 est attaqu\u00e9e pour le mot \"vert\". En effet, quand cet adjectif est employ\u00e9, il ne fait aucun doute que cela est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 cr\u00e9er dans la cervelle de la personne qui lit, \u00e9coute ou regarde une assimilation avec \"sans nocivit\u00e9\" (y compris sur le climat). \n\nEn allant jusqu'au bout de la logique, cet article devrait conduire \u00e0 ne tol\u00e9rer que les produits ou services qui revendiquent un label ayant fait l'objet d'une normalisation explicite (bio, par exemple). 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gros, que l'\u00e9volution du syst\u00e8me va ref\u00e9leter de mani\u00e8re significative ce que nous ferons, ou pas, \u00e0 partir de maintenant. Ce qui est en jeu est de limiter la d\u00e9rive, mais l'inverser est impossible.\n\nLe climat de 2030 sera donc inexorablement plus inconfortable que celui de 2020, et celui de 2040 plus inconfortable que celui de 2030. Ni la 5G, ni l'extension de Roissy, ni la hausse du CAC 40, ni la baisse du ch\u00f4mage, ni la fin du coronavirus (si elle arrive) ne r\u00e9solvent spontan\u00e9ment ce probl\u00e8me. \n\nLes auteurs disent, \u00e0 raison, qu'il est urgent de s'en occuper BEAUCOUP plus s\u00e9rieusement. Lorsque les ennuis non g\u00e9rables seront l\u00e0, la seule certitude sera alors qu'ils deviendront pires avec le temps." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6801407528413495296,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6801407529000693760,urn:li:activity:6801407529000693760,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 40, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6801407529000693760,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6801407529000693760,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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Traduisez : b\u00e9tonner :). Le centre commercial g\u00e9ant qui devait prendre place sur le triangle de Gonesse ne pouvant \u00eatre construit, que faire ?\nOption 1 : on laisse des champs, car l'Ile de France ne produit que 6% de son alimentation, situation qui deviendra intenable quand le p\u00e9trole - donc les camions - deviendront moins abondants. \nOption 1 \"luxe\" : on cultive les champs avec des m\u00e9thodes plus douces pour l'environnement (on remet des haies, on utilise moins ou pas de phytos, etc) \nOption 2 : on met des for\u00eats.\nOption 3 : on \"am\u00e9nage\", c'est-\u00e0-dire qu'on \u00e9tale la ville, artificialise les sols, et met encore plus de bouches \u00e0 nourrir en Ile de France, qui produit encore moins qu'avant. On \"renforce l'attractivit\u00e9 du p\u00f4le a\u00e9roportuaire\" (alors que le trafic a\u00e9rien doit baisser), tout en se pr\u00e9sentant comme un h\u00e9ros de l'environnement parce que l'on ne b\u00e9tonne que la moiti\u00e9 des terres agricoles du d\u00e9partement (alors ca c'est vert !)\n\nRenoncer au b\u00e9tonnage est tr\u00e8s difficile pour les \u00e9lus locaux. Opposer la raison collective \u00e0 tout pr\u00e9tendant au logement neuf, \u00e0 l'entrepot neuf, \u00e0 l'usine neuve, au bureau neuf, au commerce neuf, et aux emplois (et recettes) associ\u00e9s, demande une conviction, une cr\u00e9ativit\u00e9 (pour les alternatives), et une p\u00e9dagogie rares." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6801015604640829440,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6801015605093830656,urn:li:activity:6801015605093830656,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 117, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6801015605093830656,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Chaleur remarquable entre la Volga et l\u2019Oural" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6800838145056235520,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le r\u00e9chauffement climatique, c'est que ca se r\u00e9chauffe. Du coup, quand il fait un peu frais quelque part, ce qui est le cas en France depuis quelques semaines, la bonne question est souvent de savoir o\u00f9, sym\u00e9triquement, il fait un peu trop chaud. \n\nEn effet, aux moyennes latitudes, avec notre r\u00e9gime d'anticyclones et de d\u00e9pressions, c'est \u00e0 dire de mouvements giratoires de l'air, tel flux - frais - venant du nord ici va avec un flux - chaud - venant du sud l\u00e0. \n\nLa carte ci-dessous donne la r\u00e9ponse pour la situation actuelle : c'est \u00e0 l'Est et au Nord que ca chauffe. 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NB : nous proposons aussi des notes sur le risque physique du changement climatique, et, depuis peu, sur l'impact biodiversit\u00e9, mais ce n'est pas le sujet ici :)\n\nAu sein des \u00e9metteurs, il y a les Etats. Si vous avez de l'assurance vie en France, par exemple, une bonne partie de l'argent est investi dans des obligations \u00e9mises par un Etat de la zone euro.\n\nLa note CIA des \u00e9tats est calcul\u00e9e en prenant en compte 3 composantes : la vitesse de baisse (ou de hausse) des \u00e9missions par unit\u00e9 de PIB, le niveau actuel, et les engagements pour l'avenir.\n\nLes USA et l'Allemagne viennent de rehausser fortement leurs engagements. Est-ce que cela est suffisant pour fortement changer leur note vue par Carbon 4 Finance ? R\u00e9ponse dans cet article (en anglais), o\u00f9, pour ne pas nous faire taxer de chauvinisme mal plac\u00e9, nous avons aussi mis la Su\u00e8de et non la France :)" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6800666514266574848,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6800666514887344128,urn:li:activity:6800666514887344128,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 4, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6800666514887344128,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6800666514887344128,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Half of emissions cuts will come from future tech, says John Kerry by theguardian.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/16/half-of-emissions-cuts-will-come-from-future-tech-says-john-kerry" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Half of emissions cuts will come from future tech, says John Kerry" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6800313364317773824,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les am\u00e9ricains semblent \"revenus \u00e0 la raison\" en ce qui concerne l'action dans le domaine du climat. Mais, \u00e0 bien y regarder, il n'est pas sur que les d\u00e9clarations actuelles soient beaucoup plus s\u00e9rieuses que les non-d\u00e9clarations du locataire pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent de la Maison Blanche.\n\nDans un article tout juste publi\u00e9 par The Guardian, John Kerry explique que la moiti\u00e9 des baisses n\u00e9cessaires pour parvenir \u00e0 la neutralit\u00e9 aux USA viendront de technologies \"non encore d\u00e9couvertes\". C'est un peu comme si un \u00e9l\u00e8ve en difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 l'\u00e9cole expliquait que la moiti\u00e9 de ses points \u00e0 la fin de l'ann\u00e9e viendront de mati\u00e8res \"non encore \u00e9tudi\u00e9es\", ou qu'un client surendett\u00e9 expliquait \u00e0 son banquier que la moiti\u00e9 de ses revenus va prochainement venir d'un m\u00e9tier et d'un employeur \"non encore existants\".\n\nQuand Kerry dit que le consommateur ne devra se priver de rien, il fait une r\u00e9\u00e9dition de \"The American way of life is not negociable\". C'est de la croissance verte pur jus, et cette mani\u00e8re de voir les choses est tout autant condamn\u00e9e \u00e0 l'\u00e9chec que les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes, si le but est bien de r\u00e9soudre le probl\u00e8me climatique de mani\u00e8re organis\u00e9e.\n\nB\u00e2tis sur un monde sans limite, les USA ne changeront pas de culture en une semaine. Kerry est bien plus proche de Trump que nous le pensons. 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Carbone 4 vous propose une analyse rapide comparant les propositions de la Convention Citoyenne et les dispositions dans la loi qui vient d'\u00eatre vot\u00e9e.\n\nLa conclusion, elle est d\u00e9j\u00e0 connue : la loi n'est pas \u00e0 la hauteur de l'objectif initialement fix\u00e9 par le gouvernement. Mais la bonne question est de savoir quel est l'\u00e9cart. Cette publication tente de contribuer \u00e0 la question. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: L\u2019avis de l\u2019ADEME sur la neutralit\u00e9 carbone : d\u00e9cryptage | Carbone 4 by carbone4.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.carbone4.com/analyse-ademe-neutralite-carbone" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L\u2019avis de l\u2019ADEME sur la neutralit\u00e9 carbone : d\u00e9cryptage | Carbone 4" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6799949012976861184,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le 1er avril dernier, mais ce n'\u00e9tait pas un gag, l'Ademe a \u00e9mis un avis assez d\u00e9taill\u00e9 sur la mani\u00e8re dont il fallait voir la neutralit\u00e9 quand il s'agit d'une entreprise. Le sujet est d'actualit\u00e9 : \u00e0 fin 2020, 1565 entreprises, 826 villes et 103 r\u00e9gions dans le monde avaient d\u00e9clar\u00e9 viser un objectif de \"neutralit\u00e9 carbone\" (https://lnkd.in/deEtheA )\n\nCarbone 4 vient de publier une ex\u00e9g\u00e8se de cette publication de l'Ademe, comportant notamment une comparaison du point de vue de cette agence avec les principes qui fondent la Net Zero Initiative (https://lnkd.in/d_WDb37 ).\n\nNous sommes tr\u00e8s heureux de constater que les deux (l'Ademe et NZI) sont tr\u00e8s raccord, pour la simple et bonne raison que les deux d\u00e9marches partent de la m\u00eame d\u00e9finition scientifique de la neutralit\u00e9, laquelle n'est, malheureusement, pas celle utilis\u00e9e par une large partie des entreprises qui annoncent un objectif en la mati\u00e8re.\n\nBonne lecture ! 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faux\" (France Info), et l\u00e0 (sur LCI) \"les v\u00e9rificateurs\". \n\nLe but : \"r\u00e9tablir la v\u00e9rit\u00e9\" (mais d'o\u00f9 vient la propagation des erreurs si ce n'est d'autres journalistes :) ?). L\u00e0 o\u00f9 ca devient amusant, c'est quand l'info \"rectificative\"... est fausse !\n\nDans ce reportage \"v\u00e9rificateur\" de LCI sur l'hydrog\u00e8ne :\n- le journaliste affirme implicitement que d'acheter de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 verte c'est trier les \u00e9lectrons au compteur (or l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \"verte\" est physiquement la m\u00eame \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 de r\u00e9seau que la \"pas verte\", juste vendue avec un document en plus),\n- il pr\u00e9sente le charbon comme une source de production d'hydrog\u00e8ne \"actuelle\", alors que c'est totalement marginal, l'essentiel venant du gaz (qui est aussi \u00e9voqu\u00e9, mais apr\u00e8s),\n- il qualifie de \"miracle\" l'alimentation d'un groupe \u00e9lectrog\u00e8ne par de l'hydrog\u00e8ne \"vert\", alors qu'en fait c'est un truc de shadok, puisque cela consiste \u00e0 utiliser de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour \u00e9lectrolyser de l'eau pour... refaire de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, en ayant perdu les 3/4 de 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8523015108081748120)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theguardian.com \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Climate emissions shrinking the stratosphere, scientists reveal by theguardian.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/12/emissions-shrinking-the-stratosphere-scientists-find" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Climate emissions shrinking the stratosphere, scientists reveal" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6798991910405996544,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Guardian fait \u00e9cho d'une \u00e9tude qui vient d'\u00eatre accept\u00e9e pour publication dans Environmental Research Letters (https://lnkd.in/d_GggzT ) et qui indique que, dans le cadre de la d\u00e9rive climatique engendr\u00e9e par l'humanit\u00e9, la stratosph\u00e8re se contracte, et la limite s\u00e9parative entre troposph\u00e8re (la plus basse couche de l'atmosph\u00e8re, celle qui touche le sol) et stratosph\u00e8re, qui s'appelle la tropopause, gagne en altitude.\n\nLe refroidissement de la stratosph\u00e8re comme cons\u00e9quence du changement climatique est \u00e0 la fois assez facile \u00e0 expliquer (si le rayonnement infrarouge terrestre est plus absorb\u00e9 pr\u00e8s de la surface par les gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, alors il en reste moins pour r\u00e9chauffer la stratosph\u00e8re, qui refroidit) et une marque indiscutable de l'origine humaine du r\u00e9chauffement.\n\nEn effet, si c'\u00e9tait plus de soleil qui r\u00e9chauffait le climat, comme son rayonnement arrive de l'espace, il rencontre la stratosph\u00e8re avant la troposph\u00e8re, et donc la stratosph\u00e8re b\u00e9n\u00e9ficierait aussi du suppl\u00e9ment de rayonnement, et se r\u00e9chaufferait. 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d\u00e9tenteur d'un patrimoine agronomique et forestier unique, soit attribu\u00e9 au projet Grignon 2026, centr\u00e9 sur la recherche d'un syst\u00e8me alimentaire p\u00e9renne et compatible avec les limites plan\u00e9taires. C'est peut-\u00eatre pas compl\u00e8tement idiot ?\n\nLa crainte est bien sur que l'Etat, d\u00e9tenteur du site, ne voie pas plus loin que la taille du ch\u00e8que des diff\u00e9rentes offres, sachant que le projet est en comp\u00e9tition avec des promoteurs. Dans notre syst\u00e8me \u00e9conomique, b\u00e9tonner reste plus rentable que pr\u00e9server ou r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir. 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dans Nature regarde les sc\u00e9narios d'\u00e9mission utilis\u00e9s par le GIEC qui permettent de respecter la limite de 1.5 \u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement : https://lnkd.in/dUixDUr\n\nCet article contient le graphique ci-dessous, un peu long \u00e0 d\u00e9crypter, mais qui inventorie, pour les sc\u00e9narios en question :\n- le gain annuel moyen d'efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique suppos\u00e9 sur 2020-2040 (axe horizontal), sachant que sur les 30 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es (points noirs) ca se prom\u00e8ne en-dessous de 1,45% par an (c'\u00e9tait pareil ou inf\u00e9rieur avant)\n- le taux de croissance annuel moyen des ENR sur 2020-2040 (axe vertical) - m\u00eame remarque sur la tendance historique figur\u00e9e par les points noirs en bas \u00e0 gauche\n- enfin le volume d'\u00e9missions n\u00e9gatives d'ici \u00e0 2100 (le CO2 soustrait \u00e0 l'atmosph\u00e8re par des puits forestiers, agricoles ou technologiques), qui est figur\u00e9 par la taille du rond. \n\nQuestion : si on renverse la logique, et que l'on met les curseurs \u00e0 un \"maximum raisonnable\" pour l'efficacit\u00e9, les ENR, et que l'on ne fait pas de plans sur la com\u00e8te pour les puits technologiques, comment \u00e9volue le PIB ? 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La premi\u00e8re a besoin du second : un terroir, c'est la permanence d'un sol et d'un climat, et c'est notamment la tr\u00e8s grande stabilit\u00e9 du syst\u00e8me climatique sur les 10.000 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es (avant notre influence) qui a permis l'av\u00e8nement d'une humanit\u00e9 s\u00e9dentaire vivant de son agriculture, perfectionn\u00e9e partout au fil du temps dans un cadre stable.\n\nMais l'agriculture perturbe d\u00e9sormais le climat : 30% des \u00e9missions mondiales de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre en proviennent (en incluant la d\u00e9forestation, qui sert \u00e0 mettre des terres en culture le plus souvent). La France \"importe\" du reste une partie de la d\u00e9forestation mondiale, via ses importations agricoles ou de bois en provenance de pays tropicaux.\n\nEnfin la d\u00e9rive climatique existante et \u00e0 venir va de plus en plus impacter les productions.\n\nDans ce contexte, que peuvent faire les agriculteurs, coop\u00e9ratives, industriels, transporteurs et distributeurs ? \n\nCette nouvelle publication de Carbone 4 porte sur le r\u00f4le de l\u2019agriculture et de l\u2019agroalimentaire dans la transition\u00a0climatique fran\u00e7aise, tant pour contribuer \u00e0 la baisse des \u00e9missions, pour s\u00e9questrer du carbone, que pour gagner en r\u00e9silience face \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution du climat." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6798257391830896640,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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Cette maxime c\u00e9l\u00e8bre des \u00e9conomistes des transports souligne que de se passer de camions pour le fret sera probablement plus difficile que de se passer de voitures pour les individus. Pas question pour un colis ou un container de marchandises d'aller tout seul \u00e0 la gare, ou d'enfourcher un v\u00e9lo. \n\nTout comme la voiture a engendr\u00e9 un urbanisme \u00e9tal\u00e9 et dissoci\u00e9 (les lieux d'habitation et d'activit\u00e9 sont distants), qui aujourd'hui survivra mal \u00e0 la fin du transport m\u00e9canis\u00e9 \"lourd\", le camion a permis de cr\u00e9er un \"urbanisme productif\" permettant d'exp\u00e9dier un objet de n'importe o\u00f9 pour le livrer n'importe o\u00f9. Gr\u00e2ce au camion nous avons pu sp\u00e9cialiser les \u00e9tapes de production, les disperser partout sur terre, et livrer tout individu o\u00f9 qu'il soit. \n\nComment d\u00e9carboner le fret \u00e0 la bonne vitesse ? 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op\u00e9rationnel pour nous emmener vers la neutralit\u00e9 carbone. N\u00e9 dans le sillage de la crise sanitaire, ce plan vise \u00e0 proposer des solutions pragmatiques pour transformer l\u2019\u00e9conomie, en la rendant :\n\ud83c\udf0eMoins carbon\u00e9e\n\ud83d\udca1 Plus r\u00e9siliente\n\ud83d\udcbcCr\u00e9atrice d\u2019emplois\n\nLe financement participatif lanc\u00e9 en mai dernier a permis de lancer le travail mais il n\u2019est pas suffisant : les attentes sont grandes, l\u2019opportunit\u00e9 politique est cruciale. Nous souhaitons aujourd\u2019hui rehausser significativement nos ambitions et passer \u00e0 la vitesse sup\u00e9rieure avec le soutien des entreprises de toutes tailles et de tous secteurs !\n\nPOUR CONTRIBUER\n1\ufe0f\u20e3 Nous soutenir financi\u00e8rement : rendez-vous sur la page HelloAsso d\u00e9di\u00e9e (don d\u00e9fiscalis\u00e9 \u00e0 hauteur de 60%) \ud83d\udc49https://bit.ly/3wY4CLF\n2\ufe0f\u20e3 Participer \u00e0 notre grande consultation aupr\u00e8s des entreprises : inscriptions sur \ud83d\udc49https://cutt.ly/Svi8HhX\n\nLIENS UTILES\n\ud83d\udc49L'intervention de Jean-Marc Jancovici \u00e0 propos du PTEF et de cet appel \u00e0 contribution :\u00a0https://bit.ly/33z8IfG\n\ud83d\udc49Tous les d\u00e9tails sur cette campagne :\u00a0https://bit.ly/32CVmi6" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6797424200534503424,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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l'\u00e9quation va se pr\u00e9senter pour un nombre croissant de collectivit\u00e9s locales. Face \u00e0 ce constat, que faire ?\n\nC'est \u00e0 cette question que nous nous sommes int\u00e9ress\u00e9s, au Shift Project, dans le cadre du travail \"r\u00e9silience des territoires\", dont le rapport interm\u00e9diaire vient d'\u00eatre mis en ligne.\n\nA l'arriv\u00e9e, nous souhaitons proposer aux \u00e9lus locaux (et aussi \u00e0 leurs \u00e9lecteurs !), souvent un peu d\u00e9munis face \u00e0 la somme d'expertises qu'il faut ma\u00eetriser pour s'y retrouver face aux enjeux, quelques rep\u00e8res et conclusions robustes pour que demain soit, dans la limite de ce qu'ils ma\u00eetrisent, le moins possible l'occasion de tr\u00e8s mauvaises surprises." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6796796214407905281,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6796796215263547392,urn:li:activity:6796796215263547392,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, 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Bien plus qu'on ne le croit, en fait : les mus\u00e9es \u00e0 rayonnement international d\u00e9pendent de l'avion, le cin\u00e9ma de la voiture, tout comme les Vieilles Charrues, et enfin l'audiovisuel, qui inclut notamment l'image anim\u00e9e transitant par les r\u00e9seaux num\u00e9riques, est peu ou prou \u00e0 l'origine des 3/4 de l'empreinte carbone du digital, qui n'est pas mince.\n\nPar ailleurs, la culture, c'est l'imaginaire collectif, et en cela elle contribue aussi indirectement \u00e0 l'\u00e9volution de l'empreinte carbone de beaucoup d'autres secteurs.\n\nDans le cadre de son plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise (ou PTEF), The Shift Project vous propose de d\u00e9couvrir, Mercredi 12 mai apr\u00e8s-midi, le rapport interm\u00e9diaire concernant la culture, objet pas simple \u00e0 appr\u00e9hender puisque c'est \u00e0 la fois un secteur et un usage. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7778258480253527381)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "iea.org \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Executive summary \u2013 The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions \u2013 Analysis - IEA by iea.org", "actionTarget": "https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Executive summary \u2013 The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions \u2013 Analysis - IEA" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6796120465590022145,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "40 fois plus de lithium utilis\u00e9 en 2040 qu'en 2020, 20 fois plus de nickel, 7 fois plus de mangan\u00e8se et 2,5 fois plus de cuivre : voici les projections de l'Agence Internationale de l'Energie si nous suivons le sc\u00e9nario \"d\u00e9veloppement durable\", qui, avec le d\u00e9veloppement des ENR diffuses (vent et soleil) et de la voiture \u00e9lectrique est un sc\u00e9nario tr\u00e8s demandeur de m\u00e9taux divers.\n\nIl y a 10 fois plus (en poids) de m\u00e9taux hors acier dans une voiture \u00e9lectrique qu'une voiture thermique, et il faut 20 \u00e0 30 fois plus de cuivre par MWh \u00e9lectrique pour les modes diffus (vent - soleil) que pour les modes \"concentr\u00e9s\" (dont le nucl\u00e9aire). \n\nCa veut donc dire 10 \u00e0 20 fois plus de mines pour les m\u00e9taux concern\u00e9s, \u00e0 supposer que les gisements soient bien l\u00e0, et pour longtemps (car dans l'expression \"d\u00e9veloppement durable\" il y a \"durable\" :) )\n\nSachant que sur les ressources p\u00e9troli\u00e8res l'AIE a souvent \u00e9t\u00e9 optimiste, la question du \"bouclage en mat\u00e9riaux\" de la voie choisie pour d\u00e9carboner l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (de l'\u00e9olien et du solaire plut\u00f4t que du nuke) par beaucoup de pays devrait assur\u00e9ment faire l'objet d'investigations un peu plus approfondies que des professions de foi !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6796120465590022145,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6796120466223378432,urn:li:activity:6796120466223378432,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 132, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6796120466223378432,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6796120466223378432,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", 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Cela faisait suite \u00e0 un mois de mars d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9ficitaire en pluie, avec des \"alertes s\u00e9cheresse\" qui commencent \u00e0 se manifester dans le monde agricole, et forestier. Apr\u00e8s le gel, la s\u00e9cheresse : rappelons que le seul probl\u00e8me quand \"ca ne pousse pas\" n'est pas l'indemnisation des agriculteurs. 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du co\u00fbt des catastrophes naturelles" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6795768009949499392,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Autorit\u00e9 de contr\u00f4le prudentiel et de r\u00e9solution (ACPR), l'organe de supervision fran\u00e7ais de la banque et de l'assurance, a conduit une \"premi\u00e8re \u00e9valuation des risques financiers dus au changement climatique\" : https://lnkd.in/d_-xmB4\n\nLa bonne nouvelle, c'est que l'ACPR entend attirer l'attention sur ces risques. La plut\u00f4t mauvaise, c'est que tout le monde va prendre le montant fourni comme un ordre de grandeur pertinent, et il est bien trop faible pour nous faire peur.\n\nLes indemnisations li\u00e9es aux catastrophes naturelles sont actuellement de l'ordre d'un peu plus d'un milliard d'euros par an. Si ce montant triple d'ici \u00e0 30 ans, cela revient \u00e0 dire que les dommages de la d\u00e9rive climatique vont monter \u00e0... 3 milliards par an en 2050. Pour un pays qui fait plus de 2000 milliards de PIB, c'est tout \u00e0 fait n\u00e9gligeable, et ne justifie alors pas un effort qui sera bien plus couteux.\n\nJe propose une autre conclusion : il est h\u00e9las vraisemblable que les mod\u00e8les et sc\u00e9narios utilis\u00e9s pour arriver \u00e0 ce r\u00e9sultat ne repr\u00e9sentent pas correctement la physique sous-jacente, et que ce montant n'a pas plus de pertinence qu'un autre. Mais comme l'exercice est qualifi\u00e9 par l'ACPR de \"pilote\", cela veut dire que l'on peut esp\u00e9rer mieux la prochaine fois !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6795768009949499392,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6795768010364731392,urn:li:activity:6795768010364731392,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 22, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6795768010364731392,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6795768010364731392,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Le CJD se mobilise pour les R\u00e9gionales 2021 ! by cjd.net", "actionTarget": "https://www.cjd.net/2021/04/30/le-cjd-se-mobilise-pour-les-regionales-2021/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le CJD se mobilise pour les R\u00e9gionales 2021 !" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6795300906356240384,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Centre des Jeunes Dirigeants, mouvement patronal qui, comme son nom l'indique, rassemble plusieurs milliers de dirigeants \u00e2g\u00e9s (normalement) de moins de 40 ans, publie un \"plaidoyer pour les r\u00e9gionales\" comportant 15 recommandations. La moiti\u00e9 - 8 sur 15 - concerne le sujet \"transition \u00e9cologique\" :\n#8. Prendre en compte les enjeux de d\u00e9veloppement durable dans la structuration et l'\u00e9volution des programmes d'enseignements technologiques et professionnels\n#9. Accompagner les reconversions professionnelles vers les m\u00e9tiers reli\u00e9s \u00e0 la transition \u00e9cologique et sociale\n#10. Co-\u00e9laborer une charte de la commande publique de transition\n#11. D\u00e9velopper des fonds souverains r\u00e9gionaux responsables\n#12. Adopter des pactes pour la relocalisation de l\u2019\u00e9conomie\n#13. Cr\u00e9er une plateforme r\u00e9gionale de dialogue et de concertation autour de la RSE\n#14. Lancer un budget participatif citoyen \u00ab Mes solutions pour le monde d\u2019apr\u00e8s \u00bb\n#15. Cr\u00e9er un revenu de transition \u00e9cologique et sociale\n\nOn pourra bien sur discuter de la pertinence de chacune de ces demandes, et de leur coh\u00e9rence avec le comportement des membres. Il n'emp\u00eache : un mouvement patronal laisse rarement autant de place \u00e0 l'environnement dans une prise de position \"g\u00e9n\u00e9raliste\" \u00e0 l'occasion d'\u00e9lections. 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Les poumons de la plan\u00e8te sont au bord de l'asphyxie by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/sciences-prospective/les-poumons-de-la-planete-sont-au-bord-de-lasphyxie-1311308" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les poumons de la plan\u00e8te sont au bord de l'asphyxie" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6794885635523014656,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Mauvaise nouvelle pour un Lundi, h\u00e9las : l'emballement du r\u00e9chauffement commence \u00e0 pointer le bout de son (vilain) nez.\n\nTant qu'il est dans l'air, le CO2 est chimiquement inalt\u00e9rable, et donc... \u00e9ternel. Pour ressortir de l'atmosph\u00e8re, ce gaz ne conna\u00eet que deux exutoires : la photosynth\u00e8se, et la dissolution dans l'oc\u00e9an.\n\nMalheureusement, ces deux processus vont s'affaiblir dans le cadre du r\u00e9chauffement climatique. Le puits terrestre (la photosynth\u00e8se) baisse avec la d\u00e9forestation, le stress hydrique et thermique, et les incendies. Le puits oc\u00e9anique baisse lorsque l'eau se r\u00e9chauffe, et \u00e9galement lorsque la plong\u00e9e des eaux au large du Groenland s'affaiblit.\n\nCet article des Echos rappelle diverses \u00e9tudes scientifiques r\u00e9centes qui montrent toutes que l'affaiblissement des puits, terrestres comme oc\u00e9aniques, est en cours, avec un risque majeur que les puits se transforment en sources, risque document\u00e9 depuis des d\u00e9cennies dans la litt\u00e9rature scientifique (pas dans la presse g\u00e9n\u00e9raliste qui globalement n'est pas du tout au niveau).\n\nIl faut rappeler que, entre autres espoirs fous (car le premier est de compter sur de la croissance verte), la Strat\u00e9gie Nationale Bas Carbone compte aussi sur une augmentation des puits. Cela risque fort d'\u00eatre juste un r\u00eave de plus." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6794885635523014656,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6794885636059893760,urn:li:activity:6794885636059893760,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 101, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6794885636059893760,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6794885636059893760,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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R\u00e9bellion placent une banderole sur un panneau publicitaire lors d'une manifestation contre le r\u00e9seau mobile 5G dans le centre de Bruxelles, le 5 juin 2020." }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9129110868651618441)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:9129110868651618441)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "liberation.fr \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Boycottons la 5G ! by liberation.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.liberation.fr/idees-et-debats/tribunes/boycottons-la-5g-20210501_FH4YLLHMUVCTLBT5ZY7QEW5WDU/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Boycottons la 5G !" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6794692179534069760,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "500 scientifiques signent une tribune appelant \u00e0 boycotter la 5G. On peut y lire que \"\u00e0 l\u2019heure o\u00f9 il nous reste sept ans de budget carbone pour rester en dessous de 1,5\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement climatique, il para\u00eet tout \u00e0 fait d\u00e9raisonnable de d\u00e9ployer une technologie \u00e9nergivore, pr\u00e9datrice en ressources naturelles et humaines, ne r\u00e9pondant \u00e0 aucun de nos besoins fondamentaux\".\n\nC'est bien cela l'argument central : quand nous avons un montant donn\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9penser, commencer par en investir une partie dans du superflu nous privera par construction du n\u00e9cessaire. Le CO2 \u00e9mis dans l'atmosph\u00e8re pour regarder une s\u00e9rie ou du porno en un peu plus haute d\u00e9finition (sur un terminal qui le plus souvent n'en profitera m\u00eame pas) ne pourra plus \u00eatre \u00e9mis - du moins si on veut limiter la d\u00e9rive climatique \u00e0 un niveau donn\u00e9 - pour construire des pistes cyclables ou des digues, faire des v\u00e9los \u00e9lectriques, adapter l'agriculture, planter des arbres, isoler des b\u00e2timents ou construire des usines d'un genre nouveau \u00e0 la place des anciennes.\n\nIl ne s'agit donc pas d'\u00eatre \"anti technologies\", mais \"pro respect d'une enveloppe globale en hi\u00e9rarchisant dans le bon ordre\".\n\nEt les signataires d'appeler leurs concitoyens \u00e0 faire preuve d'une coh\u00e9rence que l'Etat n'a pas eue. 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ordres de grandeur. Il est question d'un fonds g\u00e9r\u00e9 par Eurazeo (20 milliards d'euros sous gestion, un des plus gros investisseurs dans le non cot\u00e9 en France) qui va consacrer 300 millions - un gros pour-cent des encours, donc - \u00e0 la \"bascule \u00e9cologique du maritime\".\n\n50% - 150 millions - financera \"des bateaux neufs\". On aurait pu enlever le pluriel : un gros porte-conteneurs (il y en a 5000 dans le monde : https://lnkd.in/dVxPede ) coute... 150 millions. 1 sur 5000, ca fait un peu juste pour une \"bascule\", non ?\n\nL'article indique ensuite que de baisser la teneur en soufre des carburants \"vise \u00e0 r\u00e9duire les \u00e9missions totales de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre du maritime\". Manque de chance, le SO2 n'est pas un gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, mais un \"pr\u00e9curseur d'a\u00e9rosols\", et contribue \u00e0... refroidir le climat (https://lnkd.in/deCX9i2 ).\n\nC'est \u00e9videmment une bonne id\u00e9e de financer du mieux plut\u00f4t que du moins bien. 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pour des gens qui en sont \u00e0 l'origine),\n- nous sommes dans une course contre la montre\n\nLes signataires pr\u00e9conisent notamment de renforcer rapidement l'\u00e9ducation et la formation aux enjeux (air connu), et de valoriser la r\u00e9silience dans nos comportements (alors qu'actuellement nous ne valorisons que la performance, pas du tout la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 pour l'avenir).\n\nCet appel a raison de rappeler que l'ignorance est mortif\u00e8re. 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Prendriez-vous un ma\u00e7on confondant du ciment avec de la peinture ?\n\nQuel rapport avec le climat ? Il est simple : la quasi-totalit\u00e9 de nos dirigeants politiques, \u00e9conomiques, et parfois associatifs ne ma\u00eetrisent toujours pas les bases physiques du changement climatique. Nous faisons donc confiance de fait, pour nous d\u00e9carboner, \u00e0 des gens qui, actuellement, ne connaissent pas le minimum syndical pour \"savoir de quoi ils parlent\".\n\nPas plus tard qu'hier, j'ai constat\u00e9 par moi-m\u00eame qu'un ministre n'avait pas compris que le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice de la baisse des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre ne profitait pas au climat \"local\" du pays qui agit. Il ne connaissait pas plus 2 ou 3 autres \u00e9l\u00e9ments essentiels du dossier sur lesquels j'ai pos\u00e9 une question.\n\nIl y a donc une mesure simple et de bon gout, pas ch\u00e8re au demeurant, qui est un pr\u00e9alable indispensable \u00e0 l'action pertinente : la formation aux enjeux de tout individu pr\u00e9tendant piloter l'action \u00e9conomique ou politique. 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regulation of banks, with 45 members coming from 28 jurisdiction. \n\nA recent report issued by this body, and deciphered by Carbone 4, describes the appropriate way to begin to assess the climate related financial risks. The Committee recommends using data which is highly granular, bottom up, encompasses the whole value chain, and uses scenario-bases analysis. It is exactly what we do at Carbon4 Finance , and what we already provide to 2 central banks (including Banque de France).\n\nThe members of the Committee outline that available data remains scarce. According to our experience, the reason why is primarily the lack of financial means devoted to the issue by the same members :), and not the lack of appropriate methods (we have that). Indeed, creating then deploying new methodologies requires putting (a significant amount of) money into the process. 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Internationaux \u00e0 B\u00e2le. Ses travaux servent notamment \u00e0 \u00e9dicter des r\u00e8gles dites prudentielles pour les banques, c'est \u00e0 dire qu'il faut suivre pour ma\u00eetriser les risques : https://lnkd.in/dTF_fi5 \n\nUn rapport r\u00e9cent de ce Comit\u00e9, d\u00e9crypt\u00e9 par Carbone 4, porte sur la mani\u00e8re d'int\u00e9grer les risques dus au changement climatique dans les r\u00e8gles prudentielles de r\u00e9gulation bancaire. Outre le plaisir d'y voir Carbon4 Finance cit\u00e9 pour sa m\u00e9thodologie CRIS, ce rapport souligne que pour le moment les banques n'investissent pas assez dans la production de donn\u00e9es exploitables (air connu), et que les bonnes m\u00e9thodes \u00e0 utiliser sont granulaires, bottom up, doivent incorporer les approches en \"chaine de valeur\" (dit autrement le scope 3) et les analyses par sc\u00e9narios. C'est exactement ce que nous faisons \u00e0 Carbon 4 Finance, qui par ailleurs fournit d\u00e9j\u00e0 des donn\u00e9es \u00e0 la Banque de France.\n\nIl reste \u00e0 ces recommandations \u00e0 trouver une place dans les pratiques. 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de Gen\u00e8ve a intent\u00e9 une proc\u00e9dure \u00e0 l'Etat fran\u00e7ais pour obtenir la fermeture de la centrale nucl\u00e9aire du Bugey (l'avocate est Corinne Lepage). C'est une d\u00e9marche amusante pour un pays qui a souvent revendiqu\u00e9 sa neutralit\u00e9, c'est \u00e0 dire le fait de ne pas se m\u00ealer des affaires de ses voisins (y compris quand ces derniers s'entretuaient all\u00e8grement, ce qui doit \u00eatre un peu plus nocif pour la sant\u00e9 que le nucl\u00e9aire civil :) ).\n\nSi nos amis helv\u00e8tes sont si soucieux du supprimer les vieilles installations de production \u00e9lectrique pr\u00e9sentant un danger potentiel pour les populations, il est prioritaire de se passer... des barrages ! (qui ont quasiment tous plus de 40 ans et encaissent des pressions bien sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 ce que l'on trouve dans un r\u00e9acteur nucl\u00e9aire) \n\nDans ce vieux documentaire de la RTS on retrouve des \u00e9l\u00e9ments montrant qu'en cas de glissement de terrain - possible - dans un des barrages surplombant Sion, on pourrait avoir une vague de crue de plusieurs m\u00e8tres d\u00e9filant sur la ville (qui compte 20.000 habitants) : https://lnkd.in/dbdcsyr C'est exactement ce sc\u00e9nario qui s'est produit \u00e0 Vajont (https://lnkd.in/dycWeXg ). 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Apr\u00e8s 12 ans pass\u00e9s \u00e0 s'occuper de celles des employeurs, Carbone 4 a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 MyCO2, pour s'occuper de celles des employ\u00e9s :).\n\nSouvent, dans une entreprise qui veut \"donner corps\" \u00e0 la d\u00e9carbonation, la question de la mise en coh\u00e9rence des comportements personnels avec cette nouvelle pr\u00e9occupation se pose, m\u00eame si l'entreprise, c'est l'univers professionnel, et a priori elle n'a rien \u00e0 faire dans la sph\u00e8re personnelle.\n\nMais inversement certains salari\u00e9s peuvent appr\u00e9cier le fait que leur employeur mette \u00e0 leur disposition de quoi mieux toucher du doigt la question dans leur vie propre. C'est le but de MyCO2, qui se d\u00e9ploie comme des contenants en plastique dont je ne prononcerai pas le nom :) : lors de conf\u00e9rences de groupes, pour que personne ne soit seul en d\u00e9couvrant \"combien il ou elle p\u00e8se sur le climat\", et que l'\u00e9change puisse avoir lieu sur les solutions.\n\nMyCO2 ne permet pas de devenir neutre, mais de comprendre quoi faire pour contribuer \u00e0 la neutralit\u00e9 collective. Tout est expliqu\u00e9 sur cette page !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6793120802192535552,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6793120802670682112,urn:li:activity:6793120802670682112,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 48, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6793120802670682112,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6793120802670682112,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6793120802670682112", 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(CIA), nous avons pu \u00e9tablir le classement des entreprises du secteur de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 selon leur degr\u00e9 d\u2019exposition, leur capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9duire cette exposition et les strat\u00e9gies mises en place pour s\u2019aligner, ou non, avec les objectifs de d\u00e9carbonation de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale.\n\n\ud83d\udc49 La d\u00e9carbonation de l\u2019industrie de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 est amorc\u00e9e : une grande partie des acteurs s\u2019engagent dans la production d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 bas-carbone ; certains sont m\u00eames des pure-players des \u00e9nergies renouvelables.\n\n\ud83d\udc49 Cependant, cette tendance n\u2019est pas homog\u00e8ne puisque certains continuent \u00e0 \u00eatre fortement expos\u00e9s aux \u00e9nergies fossiles et n\u2019envisagent pas de se tourner vers les \u00e9nergies bas-carbone.\n\n\ud83d\udc49 Les plus grands acteurs ont plut\u00f4t des profils d\u00e9carbon\u00e9s sans pour autant \u00eatre des 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engendre une modification du climat. Mais, inversement, \"l'adaptation\" \u00e0 la d\u00e9rive climatique va impacter la demande \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Des chercheurs ont analys\u00e9 329 articles publi\u00e9s entre 1987 et 2019 \u00e9voquant l'impact du changement climatique sur la \"consommation\" d'\u00e9nergie : https://lnkd.in/dV-sPmn\n\nIls ont d\u00e9couvert que l'essentiel des publications porte sur l'impact des variations de temp\u00e9rature sur le couple chauffage/climatisation, sur des zones localis\u00e9es (villes par exemple), mais tr\u00e8s peu sur le reste. Or, la demande \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique peut augmenter pour :\n- la fabrication des infrastructures et villes \u00e0 reconstruire (hausse du niveau de la mer, destructions diverses)\n- le transport et la pr\u00e9servation des cultures dans des conditions moins favorables\n- la fabrication \"artificielle\" de ressources auparavant \"naturelles\" (bois par exemple, remplac\u00e9 par du plastique ou du ciment)\n- la dessalinisation d'eau de mer...\n\nInversement, il peut aussi y avoir des \"\u00e9conomies\", comme moins de d\u00e9placements pour raisons touristiques.\n\nOn voit appara\u00eetre un risque important : celui de manquer d'\u00e9nergie, pour limiter les \u00e9missions ou par contrainte g\u00e9ologique, alors que les conditions devenant hostiles en n\u00e9cessiterait plus. 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gripp\u00e9s \u00e0 cause de la covid, The Shift Project s'est pris \u00e0 r\u00eaver de proposer aux candidats \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2022 ce que donnerait un \"red\u00e9marrage\" \u00e9conomique compatible avec des \u00e9missions mondiales de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre diminuant de 5% tous les ans (condition des 2\u00b0C max de hausse).\n\nA projet hors de notre ordinaire, financement hors de notre ordinaire : la premi\u00e8re phase de nos travaux a \u00e9t\u00e9 financ\u00e9e par une souscription aupr\u00e8s de particuliers, r\u00e9unissant pr\u00e8s de 4000 donateurs, et a permis de mettre des centaines de contributeurs au travail : https://lnkd.in/dNARPrU\n\nAu vu de l'int\u00e9r\u00eat qu'a fait naitre cette initiative, et du nombre limit\u00e9 de pr\u00e9sidentielles qu'il y aura avant 2050, nous avons d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de rehausser nos ambitions. Et c'est sur les entreprises que nous comptons cette fois-ci. Parce que c'est essentiellement l\u00e0 que se passent la cr\u00e9ation d'emplois, et beaucoup l'innovation, deux axes majeurs de la d\u00e9carbonation.\n\nAux entreprises, nous leur demandons 2 choses :\n- des moyens pour faire encore mieux, \n- et/ou du temps pour discuter nos propositions.\n\nSi votre entreprise est convaincue que l'enjeu \u00e9nergie climat doit \u00eatre au coeur de nos plans \u00e9conomiques pour l'avenir, c'est le moment !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6792333672314884096,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6792333672897904640,urn:li:activity:6792333672897904640,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 22, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6792333672897904640,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", 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Nuclear Death Toll on youtube.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jzfpyo-q-RM" }, "description": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "The first 1000 people to use this link will get a free trial of Skillshare: https://skl.sh/kurzgesagtinanutshell01211 Sources & further reading: https://sites.google.com/view/sources-nuclear-death-toll/ Nuclear energy creates an uneasy feeling of..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "How Many People Did Nuclear Energy Kill? Nuclear Death Toll" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6792110539112755200,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Allemagne est connue pour \u00eatre un pays hostile au nucl\u00e9aire. Pour autant, cela ne signifie pas que le pays soit totalement monochrome sur ce sujet. \n\nIci et l\u00e0, se trouvent des allemands exprimant le point de vue que leur pays n'aurait jamais du fermer ses centrales nucl\u00e9aires alors que le climat est une priorit\u00e9. Certains d'entre eux ajoutent m\u00eame que cette fermeture est aussi une erreur du point de vue sanitaire, les particules fines issues des combustibles fossiles tuant consid\u00e9rablement plus que le nucl\u00e9aire, accidents compris.\n\nC'est par exemple le cas des auteurs de cette chaine Youtube intitul\u00e9e \"Kurzgesagt\" (\"en bref\" en fran\u00e7ais) et qui fait de la vulgarisation scientifique... en anglais :).\n\nCette petite vid\u00e9o, assez bien faite, rappelle ainsi que les m\u00e9faits compar\u00e9s de l'atome avec ceux des alternatives sont un peu, ou beaucoup... \u00e0 l'avantage du nucl\u00e9aire. 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Elle r\u00e9sulte de la cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire massive de la banque centrale apr\u00e8s 2008 (qui a financ\u00e9, entre autres, l'exploitation le plus souvent non rentable des hydrocarbures de roche m\u00e8re), du droit US (qui donne au d\u00e9tenteur du sol la propri\u00e9t\u00e9 de ce qui se trouve dans le sous-sol), et d'une industrie du forage puissante qui s'est construite sur une exploitation domestique massive des hydrocarbures. Et, ironie de la chose, c'est sous Trump que la baisse a \u00e9t\u00e9 la plus rapide (m\u00eame si ce qui se passe \u00e0 un moment donn\u00e9 d\u00e9pend surtout des d\u00e9cisions prises 10, 20 ou 50 ans avant).\n\nLes discours volontaires sont certes utiles. Mais le juge de paix, ce sont les chiffres, ailleurs comme chez nous. 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Mais, malgr\u00e9 un discours d\u00e9sormais connu sur ce th\u00e8me, la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 ne change quasiment pas. \n\nEn 5 ans, de 2015 \u00e0 2020, la part de la voiture pour effectuer le trajet domicile-travail (qui repr\u00e9sente en gros un tiers du kilom\u00e9trage total en v\u00e9hicule particulier) a perdu un point, de 74% \u00e0 73%. La marche \u00e0 pieds, d\u00e9j\u00e0 peu vaillante, a r\u00e9gress\u00e9, et le v\u00e9lo est pass\u00e9 de 2% \u00e0 3% (ca fait certes 50% d'augmentation relative !).\n\nIl ne suffit donc pas d'annoncer des objectifs ambitieux pour que ces derniers deviennent une r\u00e9alit\u00e9. Fixer un objectif est certes indispensable, mais c'est de loin la partie la plus facile de l'affaire. 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transition), fait l'objet d'une actualit\u00e9 de Carbone 4.\n\nA poids et puissance identiques, le v\u00e9hicule \u00e9lectrique, en France, \u00e9met trois fois moins, fabrication comprise, que son \u00e9quivalent essence ou diesel. Le gain par rapport au thermique est d\u00e9sormais aussi une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 dans les autres pays d'Europe si l'on prend en compte que, sur la dur\u00e9e de vie d'un v\u00e9hicule achet\u00e9 aujourd'hui (10 ans), la production \u00e9lectrique se d\u00e9carbone.\n\nMais pour \u00eatre \"dans les clous\" question transition, c'est \u00e0 dire \"align\u00e9\" avec une baisse au bon rythme, il faudra combiner \u00e9lectrification et sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 d'usage. 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read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Palm Oil by ourworldindata.org", "actionTarget": "https://ourworldindata.org/palm-oil" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Palm Oil" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6789576766705958912,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Faut-il se passer d'huile de palme ? Pour beaucoup d'environnementalistes, la r\u00e9ponse est entendue : c'est oui. Cet article tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressant (et tr\u00e8s bien sourc\u00e9) de Our World in Data sugg\u00e8re que la r\u00e9ponse est moins simple que cela. \n\nTir\u00e9e par la demande de l'agroalimentaire, des cosm\u00e9tiques et shampoings, des produits d'entretien, et maintenant des automobilistes pour substituer du diesel, la consommation d'huiles et graisses v\u00e9g\u00e9tales a \u00e9t\u00e9 multipli\u00e9e par 8 en 50 ans dans le monde.\n\nLa question pos\u00e9e par l'autrice de cet article est la suivante : la situation aurait-elle \u00e9t\u00e9 meilleure si la m\u00eame demande avait \u00e9t\u00e9 satisfaite sans huile de palme ? Et la r\u00e9ponse est... probablement pas, car le palmier fournit 6 fois plus d'huile \u00e0 l'hectare que le tournesol et 10 fois plus que le soja. \n\nCet article donne \u00e9galement la r\u00e9partition des surfaces sur lesquelles les plantations de palmiers prennent place. La for\u00eat primaire ne repr\u00e9sente qu'une petite fraction des nouvelles surfaces. C'est toujours trop, mais ce n'est pas le seul cas de figure possible.\n\nLa conclusion de cette analyse est assez simple : si l'on veut \u00e9viter la d\u00e9forestation, c'est du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la baisse de la demande qu'il faut travailler. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7009593808794315168)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "nasdaq.com \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: China to start building Hualong Two nuclear reactor in 2024 by nasdaq.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-to-start-building-hualong-two-nuclear-reactor-in-2024-2021-04-14" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "China to start building Hualong Two nuclear reactor in 2024" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6789465492395454464,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7ais est trop cher ? On pourra demander de l'aide aux chinois :) Leur r\u00e9acteur de 3\u00e8 g\u00e9n\u00e9ration Hualong One a \u00e9t\u00e9 construit en 6 ans (https://lnkd.in/dQk-sHP ) et pour 2600 $ le kW install\u00e9 (4 fois moins que l'EPR de Flamanville). \n\nLe mod\u00e8le \"am\u00e9lior\u00e9\" Hualong 2 est annonc\u00e9 avec un d\u00e9lai de construction de 4 ans et 2000 $ le kW install\u00e9. Avec un facteur de charge de 70% \u00e0 90% et une dur\u00e9e de vie de 60 ans, cela met le kW efficace au sixi\u00e8me du cout de construction de l'\u00e9olien, avant prise en compte du stockage (le diff\u00e9rentiel avec stockage sera donc un multiple de de 10 \u00e0 20).\n\nPourquoi la Chine \"fait mieux\" ? Les couts salariaux sont inf\u00e9rieurs, mais cela ne change pas les d\u00e9lais de construction. Il faut aussi chercher du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l'exp\u00e9rience (les chinois construisent en permanence), de la gestion de la s\u00fbret\u00e9 (les fran\u00e7ais ont parfois un exc\u00e8s de \"ceinture et bretelles\" qui engendre complexit\u00e9 inutile donc surco\u00fbts et d\u00e9lais), et plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement d'un contexte politique dans lequel la fili\u00e8re est g\u00e9r\u00e9e dans la dur\u00e9e.\n\nCa serait idiot de demander aux chinois de construire nos r\u00e9acteurs ? Pour le moment, nous leur confions bien le soin de fabriquer nos panneaux solaires et \u00e9oliennes..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6789465492395454464,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6789465492932321280,urn:li:activity:6789465492932321280,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 110, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6789465492932321280,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6789465492932321280,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7508913171104039708)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "objectifaquitaine.latribune.fr \u2022 7 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Hydrog\u00e8ne de France et Atos signent pour lancer les premiers data centers verts sur le march\u00e9 by objectifaquitaine.latribune.fr", "actionTarget": "https://objectifaquitaine.latribune.fr/innovation/2021-04-13/hydrogene-de-france-et-atos-signent-pour-lancer-les-premiers-data-centers-verts-sur-le-marche-882042.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Hydrog\u00e8ne de France et Atos signent pour lancer les premiers data centers verts sur le march\u00e9" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6789222689677557760,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le week-end, il faut d\u00e9compresser. Alors je vous propose un petit hommage (probablement involontaire) \u00e0 Jacques Rouxel, le cr\u00e9ateur des shadoks.\n\nDans cet article publi\u00e9 par La Tribune (qui se trouve occuper l'\u00e9tage en dessous de celui de Carbone 4, donc je me ferai un plaisir de me faire offrir un verre par l'auteur de l'article s'il le souhaite :) ) il est question de rendre un datacenter \"vert\" en le faisant fonctionner avec de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e issue d'hydrog\u00e8ne \"vert\". Question : avec quoi fait-on de l'hydrog\u00e8ne vert ? R\u00e9ponse : avec de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 d\u00e9carbon\u00e9e ! \n\nCa me rappelle cette histoire des gens pay\u00e9s pour boucher des trous que d'autres personnes sont pay\u00e9es pour faire. Mais bon, tant que ca fera le job question com, pourquoi se priver ?\n\nIncidemment, un datacenter n'est pas un objet isol\u00e9 du reste du monde. Quand bien m\u00eame il deviendrait \"vert\", il est au service d'un ensemble num\u00e9rique plus vaste qui pour le moment ne l'est pas du tout, et l'est m\u00eame de moins en moins (https://lnkd.in/ggXYjrX ). \n\nR\u00e9cemment, The Shift Project a fait des propositions pour que le secteur num\u00e9rique maitrise son empreinte carbone dans les bons ordres de grandeur (https://lnkd.in/dAnRCuP ). 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tutelle directe de l'Etat - l'administration publique - devrait \u00eatre particuli\u00e8rement \u00e0 la pointe en ce qui concerne la baisse des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre.\n\nDans un rapport qui vient tout juste d'\u00eatre publi\u00e9 dans le cadre du Plan de transformation de l'\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise, The Shift Project dresse un \u00e9tat des lieux et formule des propositions pour que, des tribunaux aux casernes, en passant par les pr\u00e9fectures et les laboratoires du CNRS, ce qui rel\u00e8ve de cet ensemble avance \u00e0 la bonne vitesse pour faire sa part dans l'effort global. \n\nRepr\u00e9sentant 20% de l'emploi salari\u00e9 en France, l'Administration publique ne peut \u00e9videmment pas \"passer \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9\" de la d\u00e9carbonation. \n\nCe document est dit \"de travail\". Il est donc soumis \u00e0 consultation pour recevoir des avis, commentaires, propositions compl\u00e9mentaires, etc. C'est pour cela que, un peu partout dans le document, vous trouverez des questions et non des affirmations. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8948665417740745640)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "euractiv.com \u2022 5 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: LEAK: EU to table \u2018climate taxonomy\u2019, leaving gas and nuclear for later by euractiv.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/leak-eu-to-table-climate-taxonomy-leaving-gas-and-nuclear-for-later/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "LEAK: EU to table \u2018climate taxonomy\u2019, leaving gas and nuclear for later" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6788779593017896960,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le nucl\u00e9aire, le gaz, et la biomasse sont-ils verts ? Bas\u00e9e sur une approche \"objet\", ind\u00e9pendamment du contexte de mise en oeuvre, la taxonomie europ\u00e9enne s'est mise dans une situation fragile dont elle va avoir du mal \u00e0 sortir.\n\nLe nucl\u00e9aire est bas carbone, et moins dommageable pour la sant\u00e9 et l'environnement que toute alternative, ce que vient de rappeler le Joint Research Center auquel la Commission a demand\u00e9 son avis (pour s'asseoir dessus pour le moment). D\u00e8s lors qu'il remplace du fossile (ce que la taxonomie ne demande pourtant pas), il doit donc \u00eatre \u00e9ligible.\n\nSi le gaz remplace du charbon dans l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, cela baisse les \u00e9missions, mais s'il remplace du nucl\u00e9aire (cas belge), non. Impossible, donc, de statuer ind\u00e9pendamment du contexte. Et si l'Europe doit \u00eatre neutre en 2050, la centrale \u00e0 gaz devra c\u00e9der la place \u00e0 du bas carbone pilotable (en pratique du nucl\u00e9aire) avant sa fin de vie.\n\nEnfin la biomasse est une solution ou un probl\u00e8me selon le contexte, et ce dernier est toujours complexe \u00e0 appr\u00e9cier.\n\nCes points ne sont pas les seules faiblesses de cette taxonomie, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 con\u00e7ue avant tout pour se rassurer en \"comptant des milliards verts\", et non avant tout pour financer massivement toute bonne action (https://lnkd.in/dN9P4uw ). 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"navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: La France veut faire bloc avec ses voisins pour stopper les aides aux activit\u00e9s fossiles by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/gouvernement/la-france-veut-faire-bloc-avec-ses-voisins-pour-stopper-les-aides-aux-activites-fossiles-1306721" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La France veut faire bloc avec ses voisins pour stopper les aides aux activit\u00e9s fossiles" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6788721491048460288,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Lorsqu'elle travaille \u00e0 l'exportation, une entreprise a tout autant besoin de financement que pour son march\u00e9 domestique. Mais l'obtention de ce financement peut \u00eatre plus difficile, car les op\u00e9rations dans ces pays sont parfois consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme plus risqu\u00e9s. L'Etat a donc mis en place une garantie du cr\u00e9dit export. \n\nSelon cet article des Echos, 35% des cr\u00e9dits export des pays de l'OCDE concernent des activit\u00e9s fossiles. La garantie de ces cr\u00e9dits est de fait une subvention publique \u00e0 leur extraction. \n\nIl y a 3 ans, la France a annonc\u00e9 vouloir supprimer cette garantie au cr\u00e9dit export pour l'extraction de combustibles fossiles, mais avec un calendrier progressif : tout de suite pour le charbon, en 2025 pour le p\u00e9trole, et en 2035 pour le gaz. 6 autres pays europ\u00e9ens viennent de dire qu'ils suivraient le mouvement (Grande-Bretagne, Su\u00e8de, Allemagne, Danemark, Espagne, Pays-Bas), sans donner de calendrier.\n\nBien \u00e9videmment, ce dernier est essentiel. Si la date de fin du soutien est 2050, c'est un peu tard pour avoir des \u00e9missions quasi-nulles \u00e0 ce moment l\u00e0 ! Par ailleurs, les pays concern\u00e9s doivent ensuite convaincre les autres pays de l'OCDE, puis le reste du monde. Mais c'est un pas vers plus de coh\u00e9rence, dans un domaine peu connu du grand public.\n\n" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6788721491048460288,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6788721491635646464,urn:li:activity:6788721491635646464,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 14, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6788721491635646464,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6788721491635646464,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6788453977039085568,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le DG d'Amundi - pour encore quelques semaines :) - plaide dans les Echos pour que l'Europe se \"reprenne en main\" en mati\u00e8re de normes financi\u00e8res et extra-financi\u00e8res. \n\nDans le domaine comptable, je ne suis pas suffisamment comp\u00e9tent pour savoir comment nous en sommes arriv\u00e9s \u00e0 nous faire \"imposer\" par les USA une norme - l'IFRS - qui am\u00e8ne essentiellement de la volatilit\u00e9 et des effets de bulle dans les comptes.\n\nMais en mati\u00e8re extrafinanci\u00e8re, il est facile de savoir pourquoi les acteurs anglo-saxons sont dominants. Pour mettre au point de nouveaux indicateurs de performance ou de mesure d'un risque (et le climat demande les deux), puis les d\u00e9ployer, il faut des moyens. \n\nOr les acteurs fran\u00e7ais et europ\u00e9ens investissent mille fois moins (en moyenne) dans l'extrafinancier (formation, donn\u00e9es) que pour les donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res. Et ce peu d'argent que les acteurs europ\u00e9ens y consacrent, il va essentiellement \u00e0 des fournisseurs US ou anglais.\n\nPour que le voeu du DG d'Amundi prenne corps, il faut n\u00e9cessairement que les moyens consacr\u00e9s par les acteurs du monde financier \u00e0 monter en comp\u00e9tence et \u00e0 travailler avec des acteurs europ\u00e9ens augmentent d'un facteur 10 \u00e0 100. 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A cause du changement climatique, qui occasionne des chaleurs de plus en plus fortes l'\u00e9t\u00e9, un tiers des m\u00e9decins disent avoir d\u00e9cid\u00e9, ou envie, de quitter la r\u00e9gion.\n\nCet \u00e9pisode illustre des effets en cascade qui pourront se produire au niveau des cons\u00e9quences de la d\u00e9rive du climat : des personnes ayant le choix, qui peuvent occuper des postes amenant beaucoup de valeur ajout\u00e9e \u00e0 la soci\u00e9t\u00e9, quittent une r\u00e9gion qui devient progressivement plus inhospitali\u00e8re \u00e0 cause du changement climatique, et cela rendra le m\u00eame niveau de changement plus difficile \u00e0 supporter pour les gens qui restent. Le personnel m\u00e9dical fait partie des cat\u00e9gories concern\u00e9es, mais ils ne sont pas les seuls. \n\nDans les migrations climatiques, il y aura donc des afflux difficiles \u00e0 g\u00e9rer ici, mais aussi des d\u00e9parts dommageables l\u00e0 !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6788170932130201600,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6788170932868411393,urn:li:activity:6788170932868411393,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 26, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6788170932868411393,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6788170932868411393,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": 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A\u00ae s\u2019associent pour cr\u00e9er le premier indicateur mondial d\u2019\u00e9volution du stock de carbone dans les sols agricoles" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6787801094819995648,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Un des ennemis du stockage du carbone par les sols agricoles, c'est l'absence de couverture v\u00e9g\u00e9tale une partie de l'ann\u00e9e. Sur la base de ce constat, L\u2019INRAE et Planet A vont d\u00e9velopper un indicateur, largement bas\u00e9 sur l'observation par satellite des variations de couverture v\u00e9g\u00e9tale, pour \u00e9valuer l\u2019\u00e9volution des stocks de carbone dans les sols agricoles. Il utilisera \u00e9galement des information \"de terrain\", comme l'utilisation de fertilisation organique, ou les modes de gestion des r\u00e9sidus de culture.\n\nIl r\u00e9pondra au doux nom de SOCCROP, il est destin\u00e9 \u00e0 permettre \u00e0 chaque propri\u00e9taire de parcelle de faire une estimation du bilan carbone pour son terrain. \n\nRappelons que les sols agricoles couvrent un gros tiers des terres \u00e9merg\u00e9es, et qu'actuellement l'agriculture est un gros \u00e9metteur de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre. 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A votre avis, quelle part des \u00e9tudiants du sup\u00e9rieur sont d\u00e9sormais form\u00e9s sur le sujet \u00e9nergie/climat dans le cadre de leur cursus ?\u201d" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'Express on Twitter" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6787463361488556032,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Petit sondage qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de ma prochaine chronique dans l'Express : \"A votre avis, quelle part des \u00e9tudiants du sup\u00e9rieur sont d\u00e9sormais form\u00e9s sur le sujet \u00e9nergie/climat dans le cadre de leur cursus ?\"\n\nJe vous laisse deviner la probable bonne r\u00e9ponse !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6787463361488556032,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"accessibilityText": "Open article: Financial world greenwashing the public with deadly distraction in sustainable investing practices by amp-usatoday-com.cdn.ampproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://amp-usatoday-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/6948923002" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Financial world greenwashing the public with deadly distraction in sustainable investing practices" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6787339032771756032,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Tariq Fancy, ex Chief Investment Officer for Sustainable Investing chez BlackRock, plus gros gestionnaire d'actifs mondial, \u00e9crit que, avec le recul du temps, il s'est tromp\u00e9 en voyant l'investissement socialement responsable comme un premier pas utile, alors que c'est en fait une diversion \"mortelle\". L'auteur est peut-\u00eatre ingrat, mais il met le doigt l\u00e0 o\u00f9 ca fait mal.\n\nL'essence m\u00eame du m\u00e9tier de financier est de \"faire de l'argent\". Derri\u00e8re le gestionnaire d'actifs, se trouve in fine l'\u00e9pargnant ou le retrait\u00e9 qui regarde avant tout \"ce que ca rapporte\". Si plus d'environnement c'est moins d'argent, ce qui sera souvent le cas, comment esp\u00e9rer une bascule en masse ? \n\nC'est pour cela que trop de m\u00e9thodes ou d'engagements du secteur financier rev\u00eatent d'habits tout verts une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 sous-jacente qui est rest\u00e9e identique : le but n'est pas de changer, mais de rassurer. L'attention sera attir\u00e9e ici sur des investissements marginaux, l\u00e0 sur des engagements de principe non contraignants en pratique, etc.\n\nSeule la puissance publique peut agir \u00e0 la bonne \u00e9chelle, plaide l'auteur. Il a raison : \"s'aligner \u00e0 2\u00b0C\", c'est en pratique baisser les rendements, car la croissance verte n'existe pas. 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revendiquer neutres, \u00e0 grand coup de \"compensation\", la voici : ca serait juste pour ne pas se retrouver rang\u00e9es dans la m\u00eame cat\u00e9gorie que... une entreprise qui propose du p\u00e9trole neutre.\n\nNon non, vous ne r\u00eavez pas, Oxy Low Carbon Ventures a livr\u00e9... du p\u00e9trole neutre. Du p\u00e9trole de roche m\u00e8re, pour \u00eatre pr\u00e9cis. Cela fait partie des efforts d'Occidental Petroleum pour prendre en compte le sujet climat. Mais quand on regarde la production que cette compagnie pr\u00e9voit d'avoir pour les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir (graphique en commentaire), on ne peut pas vraiment dire qu'ils mettent la p\u00e9dale douce ! \n\nAlors, la question se pose : les entreprises qui revendiquent une \"neutralit\u00e9 individuelle\" ont-elles vraiment envie d'avoir ce genre de comportement pour mod\u00e8le ?\n\nMerci \u00e0 Isabelle Lambert qui a d\u00e9got\u00e9 cette perle !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6787043548077285376,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6787043548601561088,urn:li:activity:6787043548601561088,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 64, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": 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"FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Tout comme il a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 l'origine du d\u00e9collage industriel de l'Europe puis des USA, le charbon a ensuite largement contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 celui de la Chine. Et ce n'est malheureusement pas fini. Dans son dernier rapport, l'ONG Global Energy Monitor indique que, en 2020, c'est l'Empire du Milieu, qui par ailleurs concentre \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la moiti\u00e9 de la capacit\u00e9 mondiale, qui a effectu\u00e9 les 3/4 des nouvelles mises en service : https://lnkd.in/dAxUTct\n\nLe m\u00eame rapport \u00e9voque 180 GW de capacit\u00e9s en construction dans le monde (le parc install\u00e9 est de l'ordre de 2200 GW) et pr\u00e8s du double (323 GW) de capacit\u00e9s annonc\u00e9es, ou en demande de licence, ou autoris\u00e9es mais dont la construction n'a pas encore d\u00e9marr\u00e9.\n\nQuestion climat, clairement nous n'y sommes pas encore. Mais les acteurs financiers occidentaux ont beau jeu de dire qu'ils en sortent : de toute fa\u00e7on, c'est en Asie que ca se passe, dans des pays qui leur sont peu accessibles (Chine, Inde, et dans une moindre mesure Indon\u00e9sie, Vietnam, Philippines, Bangladesh). Aux USA et en Europe, il n'y a quasiment plus de nouveaux projets, mais beaucoup de fermetures.\n\nSi nous, occidentaux, souhaitons que les pays concern\u00e9s arr\u00eatent de rajouter des centrales \u00e0 charbon, \u00e0 part r\u00e2ler, ce qui ne sert manifestement pas \u00e0 grand chose, que pouvons nous faire ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6786693658923028480,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6786693659640258560,urn:li:activity:6786693659640258560,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 52, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6786693659640258560,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le nucl\u00e9aire civil est-il en train de vivre sa fin, \"torpill\u00e9\" par des ENR de moins en moins ch\u00e8res, et des difficult\u00e9s qui ne cessent de s'accumuler au-dessus de sa t\u00eate ?\n\nJe ne sais pas si c'est effectivement son origine, mais Sylvestre Huet endosse des habits de normand, dans ce panorama qui regarde le monde dans son ensemble, pour dire \"ca d\u00e9pend de quoi on parle\". Pendant que cette forme de production augmente tr\u00e8s rapidement ici, elle d\u00e9cline l\u00e0 ; pendant que des chantiers s'enlisent ici, ils sont termin\u00e9s en 5 ans l\u00e0 ; pendant que certains pays consid\u00e8rent que la sortie de l'atome est la priorit\u00e9 de leur politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, d'autres pays voudraient le voir qualifi\u00e9 de \"vert\". Le bilan global sera donc ce que chacun a envie d'y voir.\n\nSylvestre en profite pour, au passage, proposer quelques digressions, qui ne sont pas propres au nucl\u00e9aire, sur l'expertise, ou la confusion entre faits et opinions. 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Democratie Solidarit\u00e9 (https://lnkd.in/dAzfsZT ), pr\u00e9sident de l'Office Parlementaire d'Evaluation des Choix Scientifiques et Technologiques (https://lnkd.in/dAwA6XS ) publie une tribune dans Lib\u00e9ration appelant \u00e0 \"se mettre d'accord sur un projet de soci\u00e9t\u00e9 avant de discuter des bienfaits d'une technologie\".\n\nIl rappelle que, de fait, il est illusoire de penser que la technologie entra\u00eene spontan\u00e9ment la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 vers d'autres buts que ceux qui sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 admis. Les progr\u00e8s du digital ont favoris\u00e9 les d\u00e9localisations, la p\u00e9dopornographie, le racket, la diffusion d'informations fausses et le trading \u00e0 haute fr\u00e9quence tout autant que l'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 la science pour tou(te)s, le march\u00e9 de la seconde main, la gestion des b\u00e2timents, l'imagerie m\u00e9dicale et l'information voyageurs. Et les nouveaut\u00e9s techniques \u00e0 venir n'ont aucune raison de changer la donne.\n\n\"La technologie ne nous d\u00e9douane pas des durs choix politiques\" \u00e9crit-il. 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Et pour ne pas que tout le monde fasse n'importe quoi, la tribune insiste sur un point essentiel : l'accompagnement, qui doit exister, \u00eatre au niveau, et financ\u00e9.\n\nCompte tenu de l'importance du b\u00e2timent dans la consommation d'\u00e9nergie du pays (plus de 40%), ne rien faire de s\u00e9rieux dans ce domaine, c'est aller \u00e0 l'\u00e9chec sur la transition, disent les signataires. 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Nous nous serions plut\u00f4t dit \"l'\u00e9conomie va aller mal, donc la limitation des \u00e9missions pour les sites concern\u00e9s ne sera pas vraiment une contrainte, et par ailleurs le PIB va baisser, et donc les entreprises cot\u00e9es feront de moins bonnes affaires\".\n\nPerdu ! La le\u00e7on \u00e0 tirer de cette observation, s'il en fallait une, c'est que \"l'intuition\", ca marche moyen pour pr\u00e9voir des prix de march\u00e9. Et donc tout raisonnement qui compte sur l'\u00e9volution \"esp\u00e9r\u00e9e\" des prix en question est un raisonnement risqu\u00e9.\n\nSi l'enjeu est rien moins que de conserver une plan\u00e8te \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s en \u00e9tat de marche, ce pour quoi nous n'aurons pas deux essais, compter sur \"le march\u00e9\" est prendre un risque majeur que l'histoire se termine tr\u00e8s mal. 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comprendraient des all\u00e9gations environnementales trompeuses. V\u00e9ritable avanc\u00e9e, ou pas ?\n\nLe Diable sera, comme toujours, dans les d\u00e9tails. Notons d'abord l'impossible normalisation du terme \"trompeur\". En pratique, tout slogan publicitaire est soit r\u00e9ducteur (difficile d'\u00eatre exhaustif avec un slogan de quelques secondes), soit survendeur (c'est m\u00eame \u00e0 cela qu'il sert), donc n\u00e9cessairement un peu trompeur. D\u00e8s lors, o\u00f9 sera mis le curseur ? \n\nEnsuite, qui sera charg\u00e9 de rep\u00e9rer et instruire les manquements ? Si c'est le juge \"ordinaire\", le bagage technique pour appr\u00e9cier combien l'annonceur exag\u00e8re lui fera souvent d\u00e9faut. Si c'est une instance sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9e, ca d\u00e9pendra de qui la contr\u00f4le, nomme ses membres, ou lui fournit sa formation...\n\nEnfin reste la question du gros des annonces, qui ne disent pas que l'objet ou le service propos\u00e9 est \"propre\", mais ne disent pas... qu'il contribue \u00e0 la pression climatique. Peut-\u00eatre que la mesure la plus efficace aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 d'exiger un affichage de l'empreinte carbone en cycle de vie, et d'en faire une condition de l'autorisation de la publicit\u00e9 ? Son cout serait marginal dans la campagne, ; et le chiffre devient le juge de paix." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6785446961806888960,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6785446962389913600,urn:li:activity:6785446962389913600,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 47, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6785446962389913600,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6785446962389913600,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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\u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques sont en pratique des monopoles naturels\u201d | Le Journal des Activit\u00e9s Sociales de l'\u00e9nergie" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6785102722992492544,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le Journal des Activit\u00e9s Sociales de l'Energie (\u00e9dit\u00e9 par l'organisme qui s'occupe des oeuvres sociales des entreprises des secteurs de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et du gaz, la CCAS) publie une interview de votre serviteur sur la politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fran\u00e7aise et europ\u00e9enne (\u00e0 moins qu'elle ne soit europ\u00e9enne et fran\u00e7aise).\n\nOn ne sait \u00e9crire qu'un seul livre, me disait mon \u00e9diteur. J'imagine donc que l'on ne sait faire qu'une seule interview, mais \u00e0 chaque fois la mise en forme est un peu diff\u00e9rente !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6785102722992492544,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6785102723424509952,urn:li:activity:6785102723424509952,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 9, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6785102723424509952,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6785102723424509952,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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General Motors.\n\nGM a apparemment mis quelques milliards de $ (https://lnkd.in/dMYYWWN ) pour fabriquer un tank \u00e9lectrique de 1000 chevaux (10 fois plus que votre berline - qui en a d\u00e9j\u00e0 beaucoup trop, et 4000 fois plus qu'un v\u00e9lo \u00e0 assistance \u00e9lectrique), avec une batterie de 200 kWh (40 kWh pour la Zo\u00e9, 0,5 pour un v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique), et dont le poids sera de l'ordre de 5 tonnes (https://lnkd.in/dJRFNWE ).\n\nUne voiture de 5 tonnes c'est 25 \u00e0 30 tonnes de CO2 \u00e0 la fabrication (m\u00e9tallurgie dont aci\u00e9rie, (p\u00e9tro)chimie, verre, assemblage, transports interm\u00e9diaires, etc). Fabriquer une batterie de 200 kWh c'est \u2248 20 tonnes de CO2 en plus (m\u00e9tallurgie, chimie, transports, assemblage).\n\nR\u00e9sultat : ce Hummer utilis\u00e9 200.000 km \u00e9mettra 250 g de CO2 par km rien que pour sa fabrication (8 g par km pour un v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique utilis\u00e9 10.000 km). Reste l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, soit 0,5 kWh par km : avec 475 g de CO2 par kWh \u00e9lectrique en moyenne mondiale (https://lnkd.in/d2cNJ_E ), cela ajoute \u2248 250 g de CO2.\n\n500 g de CO2 par km, voil\u00e0 ce que General Motors appelle z\u00e9ro CO2. Si GM supposait que 0 = 500 dans ses comptes, gageons que cela d\u00e9clencherait plus de stup\u00e9faction..." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6784796660334645248,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6784796660926029824,urn:li:activity:6784796660926029824,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 231, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6784796660926029824,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6784796660926029824,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, 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Le site Global Forest Watch ne vous donnera malheureusement pas la r\u00e9ponse, mais, \u00e0 partir d'images par satellite, il fournit l'\u00e9volution du couvert forestier depuis 2000, en distinguant accroissements ici et diminutions l\u00e0. \n\nL'int\u00e9r\u00eat des analyses par satellite est qu'elles permettent de voir ce qui se passe vraiment, et non de se fier \u00e0 la \"destination\" des surfaces. 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revendiquer neutre en carbone by presse.ademe.fr", "actionTarget": "https://presse.ademe.fr/2021/04/avis-de-lademe-tous-les-acteurs-doivent-agir-collectivement-pour-la-neutralite-carbone-mais-aucun-acteur-ne-devrait-se-revendiquer-neutre-en-carbone.html" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "[Avis de l\u2019ADEME] Tous les acteurs doivent agir collectivement pour la neutralit\u00e9 carbone, mais aucun acteur ne devrait se revendiquer neutre en carbone" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6783643860217171970,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Esp\u00e9rons que ce ne soit pas un r\u00e9sultat de la p\u00eache miraculeuse du 1er avril : dans un \"avis\" publi\u00e9 hier, l'Ademe \u00e9crit noir sur blanc que \"La neutralit\u00e9 carbone est une notion qui ne peut \u00eatre d\u00e9finie qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle de la plan\u00e8te ou d\u2019un \u00c9tat\", et que \"les acteurs ne peuvent ni devenir ni se revendiquer neutres en carbone individuellement \u00e0 leur seule \u00e9chelle\".\n\nDit autrement, un entreprise ne peut pas, et ne pourra jamais, \u00eatre \"neutre\". Nous sommes heureux, \u00e0 Carbone 4, de voir que la position prise est en totale coh\u00e9rence avec la m\u00e9thode Net Zero Initiative, qui conclut exactement de la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re (https://lnkd.in/d_WDb37 ). \n\nNous savons - de source s\u00fbre :) - que ce r\u00e9f\u00e9rentiel a aussi inspir\u00e9 les Nations Unies, et leur site internet \"Climate Neutral Now\" (https://lnkd.in/d3sEgZF ) n'emploie pas le mot \"offset\" mais \"contribution\", terme que nous pr\u00e9conisons dans NZI pour le financement, en dehors de sa chaine de valeur, ou la mise en oeuvre, dans sa chaine de valeur, de puits suppl\u00e9mentaires qui ne viennent cependant pas se soustraire aux \u00e9missions li\u00e9es au fonctionnement de cette m\u00eame cha\u00eene de valeur. Les deux sont \u00e0 compter - correctement - s\u00e9par\u00e9ment." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6783643860217171970,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6783643860749832192,urn:li:activity:6783643860749832192,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 31, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6783643860749832192,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6783643860749832192,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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acc\u00e8s) relay\u00e9 par la BBC, la d\u00e9forestation induite par la consommation des pays du G7 (Allemagne, Canada, \u00c9tats-Unis, France, Italie, Japon et Royaume-Uni), essentiellement import\u00e9e.\n\nC'est pour faire pousser du chocolat, du caf\u00e9, des avocats, des palmiers \u00e0 huile, du soja, du caoutchouc ou du s\u00e9same que les arbres des for\u00eats primaires sont supprim\u00e9s, et les zones concern\u00e9es \u00e9taient souvent des lieux de haute biodiversit\u00e9 avant d'\u00eatre converties aux cultures destin\u00e9es \u00e0 l'exportation vers les pays \"riches\". \n\nMais m\u00eame en Chine et en Inde, la d\u00e9forestation import\u00e9e repr\u00e9sente un arbre par personne et par an. Et, selon les chercheurs, la croissance \u00e9conomique augmente cette d\u00e9forestation import\u00e9e.\n\nLa solution \u00e9voqu\u00e9e par les chercheurs est \u00e0 la fois simple et tr\u00e8s contrariante pour le discours \u00e9conomique classique qui ignore l'environnement : au lieu de payer les pays tropicaux pour leurs cultures \u00e0 l'exportation, il faut les payer pour la conservation des for\u00eats (sans plus de chocolat ou de viande pour autant). Qui est pr\u00eat \u00e0 y consacrer une partie de ses imp\u00f4ts ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6783641456918720512,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6783641457522704384,urn:li:activity:6783641457522704384,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 68, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6783641457522704384,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6783641457522704384,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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a" }, "saveAction": { "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_saveAction:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7816487914445927130)", "saved": false, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7816487914445927130)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "bbc.com \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Why are people not doing more about climate change? by bbc.com", "actionTarget": "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-56500739" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Why are people not doing more about climate change?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6783069047517937664,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La BBC a demand\u00e9 \u00e0 un millier d'\u00e9cossais pourquoi ils n'en faisaient pas plus pour baisser leurs \u00e9missions. Question int\u00e9ressante !\n\nLa premi\u00e8re cause est toute b\u00eate, et il suffisait d'y penser : l'essentiel de la population n'a aucun sentiment d'urgence sur le climat. Une faible minorit\u00e9, par exemple, a compris que les s\u00e9cheresses vont inexorablement augmenter, tout comme les feux de for\u00eats (la compr\u00e9hension d'autres cons\u00e9quences n'a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 test\u00e9e).\n\nDu coup, la motivation pour passer \u00e0 l'action rapidement reste faible, et si le prix se met en travers de la route, alors c'est r\u00e9dhibitoire.\n\nCe r\u00e9sultat obtenu pour les buveurs de whisky est probablement largement valable pour les buveurs de vin. Il souligne aussi, h\u00e9las, la faiblesse des media sur la compr\u00e9hension des risques. \n\nOn continue \u00e0 confondre \"sensibilis\u00e9\" et \"avoir correctement compris\". Mais ce sont deux choses totalement diff\u00e9rentes. 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D\u00e9carboner l'Administration publique : pr\u00e9sentation du Rapport interm\u00e9diaire et Ateliers collaboratifs (jeudi 15 avril \u00e0 14h) - The Shift Project" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6782910724277575680,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Si l'Etat - c'est \u00e0 dire nous - prend l'engagement de se d\u00e9carboner, dans le cadre de l'accord de Paris, alors cela veut dire que l'administration publique, qui, sauf erreur, fait partie du pays, doit aussi faire quelque chose.\n\nQuoi ? C'est l'objet du travail qui sera pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 le 15 avril par The Shift Project, dans le cadre de nos travaux sur le Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Fran\u00e7aise (PTEF).\n\nQue peut faire l\u2019administration publique pour r\u00e9duire les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre li\u00e9es \u00e0 son fonctionnement ? Comment accompagner l\u2019\u00e9volution de chaque acteur public en tenant compte de la diversit\u00e9 des m\u00e9tiers au sein de l\u2019administration fran\u00e7aise ? 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!\n\nLe projet de loi Climat et R\u00e9silience est vot\u00e9 \u00e0 partir de ce lundi \u00e0\nl'Assembl\u00e9e Nationale.\n\nL'objectif de cette loi ? 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Mais le commanditaire de cette affaire, un certain Emmanuel Macron, avait fix\u00e9 un cadre \u00e0 la CCC : proposer de quoi faire baisser de 40% des \u00e9missions fran\u00e7aises de 40% entre 1990 et 2030.\n\nD\u00e8s lors, le refus d'une proposition de la CCC aurait du s'accompagner d'une \"contre-proposition\" de l'Etat pour parvenir \u00e0 la m\u00eame baisse mais d'une autre mani\u00e8re. 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"accessibilityText": "Open article: Une interview dans La Revue du Trombinoscope en mars 2021 by jancovici.com", "actionTarget": "https://jancovici.com/publications-et-co/interviews/une-interview-dans-la-revue-du-trombinoscope-en-mars-2021/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une interview dans La Revue du Trombinoscope en mars 2021" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6782556622674763776,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "L'un des charmes des interviews (qui sont des exercices qui n'ont pas que des avantages !), c'est que cela permet parfois de d\u00e9couvrir l'existence d'une publication dont le nom vous \u00e9tait totalement inconnu avant d'\u00eatre contact\u00e9 par la r\u00e9daction de la publication en question.\n\nC'est ainsi que j'ai d\u00e9couvert \"la revue du trombinoscope\", \u00e9dit\u00e9e par les gestionnaires d'un annuaire - intitul\u00e9e sans surprise \"le trombinoscope\" - de personnages politiques fran\u00e7ais et europ\u00e9ens.\n\nJ'imagine que leurs lecteurs sont essentiellement des personnes travaillant dans ou avec le monde politique, puisque, sans surprise, l'interview a port\u00e9... sur le r\u00f4le du politique. Actualit\u00e9 oblige, cela a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 par un petit couplet sur la convention citoyenne.\n\nEst-ce utile de donner des interviews ? L'histoire ne s'\u00e9crivant qu'une fois, impossible de le savoir de mani\u00e8re formelle. Disons que, vu le temps que cela prend, si cela permet de convaincre quelques d\u00e9put\u00e9s, s\u00e9nateurs, ou grands \u00e9lus locaux qu'ils doivent mettre plus de visions pour l'avenir en coh\u00e9rence avec les limites plan\u00e9taires, je serai tr\u00e8s loin d'avoir perdu mon temps. Et si ca ne sert \u00e0 rien cette fois ci, \u00e0 tout le moins j'y gagne une occasion suppl\u00e9mentaire de v\u00e9rifier, pendant la relecture, que je suis raccord avec moi-m\u00eame :)" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6782556622674763776,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6782556623136153600,urn:li:activity:6782556623136153600,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 14, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6782556623136153600,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6782556623136153600,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, 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bovin.\n\nSouvent rel\u00e9gu\u00e9 \"dans l'ombre\" par le CO2 qui tient le faut du pav\u00e9 (\u00e0 raison au vu de son importance dans l'ensemble), le m\u00e9thane est beaucoup plus rarement cit\u00e9 dans les causes du changement climatique, et, par voie de cons\u00e9quence, dans les mesures \u00e0 mettre en oeuvre. \n\nA la Commission Europ\u00e9enne, par exemple, les d\u00e9bats sont nombreux autour de mesures visant \u00e0 limiter les \u00e9missions de CO2 : normalisation des voitures, r\u00e9novation des b\u00e2timents, quotas n\u00e9gociables pour l'industrie, etc. Mais de limitation du cheptel, et des contreparties qui permettraient de marier cela avec plus d'emploi dans l'agriculture, il n'en est pas souvent question !\n\nD'o\u00f9 viennent les \u00e9missions de ce gaz, quels en sont les processus \u00e0 l'origine, et quelle place prend-il dans l'ensemble de nos \u00e9missions ? C'\u00e9tait le th\u00e8me de cette chronique parue dans l'Express il y a une semaine." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6782549956256387074,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6782549956742938624,urn:li:activity:6782549956742938624,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 81, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6782549956742938624,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6782549956742938624,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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Commission pour savoir si le nucl\u00e9aire est \u00e9ligible comme \u00e9nergie verte dans le cadre de la taxonomie destin\u00e9e aux investisseurs, a r\u00e9pondu \"oui\".\n\nOn peut lire dans le rapport - disponible l\u00e0 : https://lnkd.in/dAV5WF4 - \"The analyses outlined in Chapter 3.2 did not reveal any science-based evidence that nuclear energy does more harm to the human health or to the environment than other electricity production technologies already included in the Taxonomy as activities supporting climate change mitigation. \"\n\nOn ne saurait \u00eatre plus clair. Reste \u00e0 voir si cette conclusion franchira la barri\u00e8re des compromis politiques. En effet, on peut citer de nombreux exemples o\u00f9 l'acte politique final de la Commission ignore un fait document\u00e9 par la communaut\u00e9 scientifique (le JRC est un centre de recherche). 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:8406541547074151548)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "theshiftproject.org \u2022 4 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: [Invitation] Webinaire \"Quel d\u00e9ploiement pour la 5G ?\" - 30 Mars by theshiftproject.org", "actionTarget": "https://theshiftproject.org/article/invitation-webinaire-5g-et-numerique-soutenable-mardi-30-mars/" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "[Invitation] Webinaire \"Quel d\u00e9ploiement pour la 5G ?\" - 30 Mars" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6782286086874923011,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Demain \u00e0 18h, The Shift Project organise un webinaire autour de la nouvelle publication de notre think tank sur le num\u00e9rique, et plus particuli\u00e8rement sur la 5G.\n\nApr\u00e8s le Haut conseil pour le climat, qui a propos\u00e9 que l'Arcep mette sous condition d'empreinte carbone les attributions de fr\u00e9quence aux op\u00e9rateurs, The Shift Project pr\u00e9sentera ses propositions, qui sont globalement en coh\u00e9rence. \n\nCar, il faut le rappeler : tant qu'il n'y a pas de contrainte sur les usages, aucun progr\u00e8s technique n'a jamais permis de faire baisser l'empreinte carbone sectorielle concern\u00e9e (celle de la mobilit\u00e9 comme celle du num\u00e9rique). 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avanc\u00e9e technique. \n\nLes r\u00e9sultats sont annonc\u00e9s avec cette phrase : \"Europe can create 2.4 million new jobs within the next four years through digital transformation, while boosting economic growth and accelerating green transformation\". Car ca sera green : on peut lire dans la copie du BCG que \"an extensive and network-enabled uptake of smart digital solutions across sectors can enable a 15% reduction of the global CO2 emissions\" (aucune source ni aucun calcul \u00e0 l'appui de cette affirmation). \n\nPour 300 milliards mis dans la 5G, nous allons donc avoir plus de PIB, plus d'emplois, et beaucoup moins de CO2. Qui ne serait s\u00e9duit ? Surement le \"Directorate\u2011General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology\", puisqu'il est le \"Commission department responsible to develop a digital single market to generate smart, sustainable and inclusive growth in Europe\" : https://lnkd.in/dfPt7kz\n\nPour 300 milliards, il est surement possible de faire baisser les \u00e9missions europ\u00e9ennes. 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La capture et s\u00e9questration du CO2 - qui n'existe pas \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle - pour produire de l'hydrog\u00e8ne - qui ne dispose pas de syst\u00e8me de distribution et de v\u00e9hicules appropri\u00e9s \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle, et qui n'en aura peut-\u00eatre jamais - c'est oui aussi (https://lnkd.in/dCvKKxp ).\n\nMais le nucl\u00e9aire, qui n'\u00e9met quasiment pas de CO2, et qui, avec une volont\u00e9 f\u00e9roce et les m\u00eames centaines de milliards que nous avons eus pour les ENR, pourrait tuer le charbon en 30 ans, c'est non pour le moment (https://lnkd.in/deYhiQY ).\n\nEn clair, si je remplace du charbon par du gaz - ce qui diminue les \u00e9missions par 2 - je suis vert, mais si je le remplace par du nucl\u00e9aire - ce qui divise les \u00e9missions par 100 - je ne le suis pas. \n\nSi je promeus une solution qui commencera \u00e0 se voir dans 30 ans (l'hydrog\u00e8ne avec capture du CO2 \u00e0 large \u00e9chelle), c'est \u00e0 dire au moment o\u00f9 le probl\u00e8me devra d\u00e9j\u00e0 avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9gl\u00e9 (!), je suis vert, mais si je d\u00e9ploie demain matin une technologie d\u00e9j\u00e0 existante, je ne le suis pas.\n\nAu fond ces d\u00e9cisions ne prouvent qu'une chose : que les d\u00e9cisionnaires dans l'affaire n'ont soit rien compris au probl\u00e8me, soit ont d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de n'en tenir aucun compte. 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provoqu\u00e9 des incendies sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. La m\u00eame zone (au sud-est) vient d'\u00eatre l'objet d'inondations \u00e9galement sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, apr\u00e8s des records historiques de pr\u00e9cipitations.\n\nDans le m\u00eame esprit, les USA ont connu, \u00e0 6 mois d'intervalle, des records de chaleur puis une vague de froid tout autant sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent descendant jusqu'au Texas.\n\nLa d\u00e9rive climatique va rendre le climat plus \"oscillant\" (plus de s\u00e9cheresses, plus de pluies intenses, notamment), quoi que nous fassions : c'est \u00e9crit dans l'inertie du processus. Et cela arrivera pour l'essentiel dans un monde plus d\u00e9muni sur le plan \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. C'est \u00e9crit aussi. 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climatiques ? Comment l\u2019Accord de Paris de 2015 a-t-il pu \u00eatre obtenu ? Comment fonctionnent les n\u00e9gociations..." }, "showSmallTitle": false, "title": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "CLM S4#28 - Jean-Marc Jancovici - \"Peut-on encore sauver le climat ?\"" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6780752256187813888,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "attributes": [ { "start": 0, "length": 15, "miniProfile": { "firstName": "Pascal", "lastName": "Boniface", "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAABS_EWgBYcQJMbl1Fy69m94x5Gj0sLdQh8M", "occupation": "Directeur et fondateur de l'IRIS - Institut de relations internationales et strat\u00e9giques", "objectUrn": "urn:li:member:348066152", "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_miniProfile:ACoAABS_EWgBYcQJMbl1Fy69m94x5Gj0sLdQh8M", "backgroundImage": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_800/0/1675846953974?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=SG731GhFhW_A93W5RfpKt4jb72R6mz7YzO_eojIsO1E", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 1400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "350_1400/0/1675846953974?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=PQxVjyDP_OTufm6LOIeYpcd44xtw0uChbsLHJVbBUb8", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 350 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4E16AQGsPgCmI6Tyzw/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_" } }, "publicIdentifier": "pascal-boniface-20869798", "picture": { "com.linkedin.common.VectorImage": { "artifacts": [ { "width": 100, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "100_100/0/1553010089164?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=6r4mUTgAq7OGpwie5-jaTneh2CINs7c7HRgKK3h7hQQ", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 100 }, { "width": 200, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "200_200/0/1553010089164?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=cDWZU-nOmqcKzaQvAXHg3nxgK86bfZOHdHIvNtUrUTw", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 200 }, { "width": 400, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "400_400/0/1553010089164?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=B2ChUNMxpNLiaQ1SBHT2wxg9GV2x5Du-hnIWHq7qW4Q", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 400 }, { "width": 800, "fileIdentifyingUrlPathSegment": "800_800/0/1553010089164?e=1681948800&v=beta&t=aI2Lm7f9HV1D4zTxaHosByRvcQi6FlVdgKXC8BWTiI0", "expiresAt": 1681948800000, "height": 800 } ], "rootUrl": "https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C5603AQGh-Lk-3VkQQg/profile-displayphoto-shrink_" } }, "trackingId": "rIi7pw30RTubADq59bOyng==" }, "type": "PROFILE_MENTION" } ], "text": "Pascal Boniface m'a r\u00e9cemment fait une petite place dans son bureau pour \u00e9changer sur quelques sujets li\u00e9s au climat et \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie.\n\nDe fa\u00e7on coh\u00e9rente avec le domaine de pr\u00e9dilection de l'h\u00f4te qui m'accueillait, une large partie des questions a concern\u00e9 les n\u00e9gociations internationales sur le climat (mais pas que).\n\nA l'approche de la COP 26 de Glasgow, pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme beaucoup d'autres avant comme celle de la \"derni\u00e8re chance\", un des \u00e9l\u00e9ments du d\u00e9bat a \u00e9t\u00e9 de se demander ce que l'on peut attendre de ce genre d'\u00e9v\u00e9nement. Bonne question !" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6780752256187813888,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6780752256594669568,urn:li:activity:6780752256594669568,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 21, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6780752256594669568,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6780752256594669568,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6780752256594669568", "threadId": 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mieux la production russe retrouvera son niveau de 2019 d'ici quelques ann\u00e9es, avant d'entamer un grand coup de toboggan qui verra sa production divis\u00e9e par 2 en 20 ans. \n\nLa Russie est le premier fournisseur de p\u00e9trole de l'Union Europ\u00e9enne. Le p\u00e9trole est depuis 40 ans le premier facteur limitant de l'\u00e9conomie. \n\nLa Russie n'est pas le seul pays fournissant l'Union qui soit en d\u00e9clin : https://lnkd.in/dW3FREk\n\nIl faut le dire et le r\u00e9p\u00e9ter : le plus probable est que nous allons devoir transitionner en d\u00e9croissance. Cela va tr\u00e8s fortement limiter le potentiel de diffusion des solutions high tech et/ou tr\u00e8s capitalistiques pour faire baisser les \u00e9missions." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6780555845433344000,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6780555846070878208,urn:li:activity:6780555846070878208,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 32, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6780555846070878208,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6780555846070878208,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": 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travers de ses 12 marques, assure un tiers des ventes automobiles en Europe, acc\u00e9l\u00e8re sur l'\u00e9lectrique. Comme ils ne sont pas les seuls, les voitures \u00e0 batterie pourraient repr\u00e9senter plus de la moiti\u00e9 des v\u00e9hicules neufs vendus en Europe en 2030.\n\nUne ann\u00e9e de ventes change 5% \u00e0 7% du parc. Si ces ventes sont \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 \u00e9lectriques, cela signifie 3% du parc \u00e9lectrifi\u00e9 par an. A ce rythme, il faut donc 30 ans pour tout changer. Cela suffirait en th\u00e9orie pour \u00eatre \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s en ligne avec la tr\u00e8s forte baisse attendue des \u00e9missions pour les v\u00e9hicules particuliers, mais cela ne garantit pas pour autant la neutralit\u00e9 carbone de ce segment. \n\nEn effet, pour cela il faut aussi que l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 soit z\u00e9ro carbone (on n'en prend pas le chemin partout avec la construction de centrales \u00e0 gaz ou le maintien du charbon en compl\u00e9ment des ENR intermittentes), et que la construction du v\u00e9hicule lui-m\u00eame le soit (ce qui signifie acier d\u00e9carbon\u00e9, batteries d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es, et v\u00e9hicules de faible masse et vitesse, la meilleure voiture \u00e9lectrique \u00e9tant... un v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectrique !).\n\nIl faut aussi que la puissance disponible permette de recharger les v\u00e9hicules. Avec 30 millions de v\u00e9los \u00e9lectriques en France, c'est sur que oui. Avec 30 millions de tanks \u00e9lectriques, c'est sur que non." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6780413208445378560,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6780413208957087745,urn:li:activity:6780413208957087745,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 142, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6780413208957087745,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6780413208957087745,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7260649865912774654)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "gouvernement.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: \u00c9lectricit\u00e9: le devoir de lucidit\u00e9 by gouvernement.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.gouvernement.fr/electricite-le-devoir-de-lucidite" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "\u00c9lectricit\u00e9: le devoir de lucidit\u00e9" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6780409982308380672,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Sous le titre \"Electricit\u00e9 : le devoir de lucidit\u00e9\", le Haut Commissariat au Plan f\u00eate ses 6 mois d'existence en envoyant une vol\u00e9e de bois vert au gouvernement - et \u00e0 l'Elys\u00e9e - sur ses contradictions et ses impasses en mati\u00e8re \u00e9lectrique.\n\nEn substance, la note de 16 pages explique que nous sommes en train de d\u00e9penser des fortunes pour courir apr\u00e8s une chim\u00e8re, \u00e0 savoir la programmation de la disparition de nos capacit\u00e9s pilotables d\u00e9carbon\u00e9es en m\u00eame temps (le fameux \"en m\u00eame temps\" !) qu'un recours accru \u00e0 l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour d\u00e9carboner des usages actuellement assur\u00e9s par les combustibles fossiles.\n\n\"tout se passe comme si des objectifs ambitieux et moralement fond\u00e9s avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 recherch\u00e9s avec optimisme et une certaine insouciance, sans que personne parmi les citoyens ait \u00e9t\u00e9 averti des contraintes certaines, des efforts consid\u00e9rables \u00e0 fournir et des risques encourus\" \u00e9crit Bayrou. 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6780020504955777024,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "La neutralit\u00e9 carbone \u00e9tant une affaire d'\u00e9quilibrage de flux physiques, il n'est pas \u00e9tonnant qu'une revue scientifique laisse de la place au d\u00e9bat sur la bonne mani\u00e8re pour une entreprise ou un \u00e9tat de s'y confronter.\n\nPour l'heure, c'est le grand bazar : les uns ne regardent que le CO2 (65% des \u00e9missions) pendant que d'autres incluent tous les gaz ; les uns uniquement leurs \u00e9missions directes pendant que d'autres incluent tout ce qui vient de leur chaine de valeur ; certains acteurs deviennent neutres en envoyant le tas de poussi\u00e8re sous le tapis (la compensation) pendant que d'autres entendent vraiment baisser leurs \u00e9missions jusqu'\u00e0 presque rien, bref chacun s'arrange \u00e0 sa sauce.\n\nLes auteurs plaident qu'il est urgent de disposer d'un r\u00e9f\u00e9rentiel partag\u00e9 permettant d'appr\u00e9cier l'effort de chacun et son ad\u00e9quation avec le probl\u00e8me \u00e0 traiter. C'est exactement \u00e0 cela que nous travaillons avec Net Zero Initiative :) ( https://lnkd.in/d_WDb37 ). \n\nIl ne s'agit pas juste d'une discussion de salon : ne pas avoir de r\u00e9f\u00e9rentiel s\u00e9rieux et partag\u00e9 augmente fortement le risque de nous faire rater nos objectifs climatiques, car nous conservons plus longtemps l'illusion de bien traiter la question alors qu'il n'en est rien." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6780020504955777024,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6780020505492627457,urn:li:activity:6780020505492627457,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 44, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6780020505492627457,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": 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"templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6779723366157836288,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Une \u00e9tude disponible sur le site de Mazars (https://lnkd.in/dyheTjh ) propose quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments int\u00e9ressants sur la mani\u00e8re dont des dirigeants d'entreprises (1/3 TPE - 1/3 PME - 1/3 ETI et grandes) \"voient\" la neutralit\u00e9 carbone, Les Echos en ayant tir\u00e9 un article.\n\nNombre de questions permettent des r\u00e9ponses qui sont de la p\u00e9tition de principe, et du coup il est difficile d'en retirer quoi que ce soit comme conclusion. C'est \u00e0 la fin que l'on trouve des questions concr\u00e8tes, permettant d'apprendre que :\n- 80% des sond\u00e9s n'ont r\u00e9alis\u00e9 aucun bilan carbone\n- la moiti\u00e9 des 25% qui ont un projet de neutralit\u00e9 le limitent aux \u00e9missions directes (pas de scope 3)\n- 2/3 des sond\u00e9s consid\u00e8rent qu'ils n'ont pas le bagage m\u00e9thodologique pour s'attaquer \u00e0 la question\n- 82% pensent que la compensation leur sera indispensable (alors qu'en pratique elle ne permet pas de supprimer les risques de transition : https://lnkd.in/d_WDb37 )\n\nNotons que dans le libell\u00e9 des questions, la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 est d\u00e9finie comme \"la r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre sans modification de votre syst\u00e8me de production\" !\n\nL'impression principale qui se d\u00e9gage des r\u00e9ponses est essentiellement une grande confusion. Il reste beaucoup de travail pour que nos dirigeants comprennent le cadre physique sous-jacent." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6779723366157836288,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6779723366757613569,urn:li:activity:6779723366757613569,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 34, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6779723366757613569,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6779723366757613569,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 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\u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence d'un article scientifique, n'est pas revu par des pairs avant parution) plaidant pour que le \"pire\" sc\u00e9nario utilis\u00e9 dans les mod\u00e9lisations climatiques - le RCP 8.5, avec 5\u00b0C de hausse - ne soit plus appel\u00e9 \"business as usual\", dit autrement le plus probable en l'absence d'action.\n\nLa conclusion est bonne dans le principe : la trajectoire du 8.5 am\u00e8nera un effondrement bien avant 2100, apr\u00e8s \"transgression\" de nombreuses limites plan\u00e9taires, sur le p\u00e9trole, et sur d'autres ressources, mini\u00e8res ou agricoles (elles m\u00eames d\u00e9pendantes de l'\u00e9nergie et du climat). \n\nMais le commentaire voit les causes ailleurs. La premi\u00e8re est le \"pic charbon\" qui, selon les auteurs, serait pass\u00e9 ou en cours. Mais l'abondance charbonni\u00e8re reste tr\u00e8s mal document\u00e9e, et les 5 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es ne sont pas suffisantes pour conclure pour 1 si\u00e8cle !\n\nLes auteurs invoquent ensuite le faible cout des \"\u00e9nergies propres\". Il est \u00e9tonnant de trouver ce terme sans contenu normatif (\"propre\") dans une revue scientifique. Et surtout nous devons \u00e0 notre syst\u00e8me industriel fossile de fabriquer ces collecteurs pour pas cher.\n\nIl n'en reste pas moins que des ennuis hors norme n'ont pas besoin du \"pire\" sc\u00e9nario d'\u00e9mission pour survenir. 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Et, depuis le d\u00e9but des grands discours et des objectifs de cadrage en mati\u00e8re de climat, les deux ont une envie f\u00e9roce de ne pas \u00eatre raccord, quel que soit le secteur o\u00f9 l'on porte le regard, ou presque.\n\nC'est cet air h\u00e9las connu, appliqu\u00e9 au domaine du transport, qu'entonne cet article de Carbone 4. Apr\u00e8s avoir compar\u00e9 ce qui est entrepris avec le \"minimum syndical\" qui serait n\u00e9cessaire pour aller \u00e0 la bonne vitesse, il conclut en expliquant que l'\u00e9cart entre discours martiaux et actes insuffisants n'est pas pr\u00e8s de se r\u00e9sorber avec un \u00e9tat qui doit - va - rehausser ses objectifs en mati\u00e8re de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions.\n\nEn effet, l'ambition europ\u00e9enne - pas plus coh\u00e9rente avec les politiques sectorielles ou transversales quand on regarde dans le d\u00e9tail - \u00e9tant devenue plus forte (-55% d'\u00e9missions en 2030 !), la France devra revoir son objectif national \u00e0 la hausse... et en sera donc encore plus loin. \n\nRappelons que, \u00e0 cause de l'inertie du CO2 dans l'air, agir au moment o\u00f9 le climat commence \u00e0 \"devenir insupportable\" ne sert plus \u00e0 rien pour \u00e9viter que l'adversit\u00e9 n'augmente encore ensuite. Ce n'est pas \"pr\u00e9venir ou gu\u00e9rir\", mais plut\u00f4t \"pr\u00e9venir ou souffrir\" qu'il faut avoir en t\u00eate." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6779380542379966466,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6779380542941995008,urn:li:activity:6779380542941995008,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 14, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6779380542941995008,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6779380542941995008,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7673185753537590950)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "reporterre.net \u2022 11 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Occupation d\u2019AgroParisTech : les \u00e9tudiants tiennent bon face aux autorit\u00e9s by reporterre.net", "actionTarget": "https://reporterre.net/Les-etudiants-d-AgroParisTech-occupent-leur-ecole-pour-la-sauver-des-promoteurs" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Occupation d\u2019AgroParisTech\u00a0: les \u00e9tudiants tiennent bon face aux autorit\u00e9s" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6779094312492781568,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "A qui le tour ? Apr\u00e8s les \u00e9l\u00e8ves de l'X, qui ont d\u00e9clench\u00e9 une bronca pour protester (\u00e0 raison) contre l'implantation d'un centre de recherche de Total en plein milieu du campus, ce sont les \u00e9tudiants d'AgroParisTech qui se transforment - \u00e0 raison aussi - en zadistes. \n\nLe d\u00e9but de l'histoire, c'est le projet de regrouper physiquement toutes les \u00e9coles d'ing\u00e9nieurs sur le plateau de Saclay pour faire un gros machin bien vu dans le classement de Shangha\u00ef (projet qui date en fait d'il y a 60 ans, et ne garantit en rien une recherche plus adapt\u00e9e aux d\u00e9fis du 21\u00e8 si\u00e8cle).\n\nUne fois l'Agro pri\u00e9e de quitter son campus historique de Grignon, que faire de ces terres ancestrales, ces s\u00e9ries multis\u00e9culaires, et son patrimoine architectural ? \n\nPourquoi pas un centre commercial ou un lotissement, pour faire encore plus grossir une Ile de France d\u00e9j\u00e0 hypertrophi\u00e9e, se demande l'administration propri\u00e9taire du site ? Bien sur que non, r\u00e9pondent les \u00e9l\u00e8ves. Il faut conserver au site sa vocation agricole, et en faire un centre tourn\u00e9 vers les d\u00e9fis de l'agriculture de demain. Dans le pays qui veut \"make the planet great again\", la question ne devrait m\u00eame pas se poser. Esp\u00e9rons que, sur ce genre de dossier \"\u00e9vident\", notre gouvernement est capable d'un minimum de coh\u00e9rence. 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des pr\u00e9cipitations avaient lieu directement au niveau du sol, ce qui est bien \u00e9videmment impossible s'il y a d\u00e9j\u00e0 une calotte.\n\nOr, dans le cadre des variations naturelles du climat (https://lnkd.in/dJf-6Ry ), la concentration atmosph\u00e9rique en CO2 n'a jamais d\u00e9pass\u00e9 de beaucoup celle dite pr\u00e9industrielle.\n\nCette analyse sugg\u00e8re donc qu'avec le r\u00e9chauffement \u00e0 venir, m\u00eame limit\u00e9 \u00e0 2\u00b0C, la calotte pourrait \u00e0 nouveau enti\u00e8rement dispara\u00eetre. 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7600090539648715233)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "sfen.org \u2022 2 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Chine : mise en service de 19 GW nucl\u00e9aires dans les 5 ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir by sfen.org", "actionTarget": "https://www.sfen.org/rgn/chine-mise-service-19-gw-nucleaires-5-annees-venir" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Chine : mise en service de 19 GW nucl\u00e9aires dans les 5 ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6778237729739182080,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Le nucl\u00e9aire est souvent pris pour cible sur la base d'arguments qui n'ont pas de base factuelle, mais par contre sa mise en oeuvre est aujourd'hui bien trop lente pour qu'il constitue l'essentiel de la r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 apporter face \u00e0 la question climatique.\n\nEn 5 ans, la Chine, qui est un des pays les plus volontaristes sur cette technologie avec la Russie, va mettre en oeuvre 19 GW de capacit\u00e9s. A l'\u00e9chelle de la France, ca ferait beaucoup : l'\u00e9quivalent d'un tiers de notre parc. Mais \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle de la Chine, et de ses 900 \u00e0 1000 GW de centrales \u00e0 charbon, c'est tr\u00e8s peu.\n\nCertes, la Chine aurait annonc\u00e9 dans le pass\u00e9 (j'avoue avoir perdu la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence) qu'en 2050 la moiti\u00e9 de son \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 viendrait du nucl\u00e9aire. Pour en arriver l\u00e0, il faudrait que le rythme de d\u00e9ploiement s'intensifie f\u00e9rocement. Ce n'est pas impossible en th\u00e9orie : en France, pendant la construction du parc, nous avons \u00e9t\u00e9 capables de raccorder 20 GW en 4 ans (https://lnkd.in/daauiC4 ), ce qui, \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle de la Chine, ferait... 200 GW en 4 ans ! Mais pour le moment nous en sommes loin.\n\nIl est pertinent de faire du nucl\u00e9aire pour remplacer le charbon. Mais les ordres de grandeur montrent que l'essentiel de la baisse des \u00e9missions devra provenir d'ailleurs, et notamment de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6778237729739182080,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6778237730334769152,urn:li:activity:6778237730334769152,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 42, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6778237730334769152,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6778237730334769152,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, 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"dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_saveState:(SAVE,urn:li:article:7846656587685117314)" }, "subtitle": { "textDirection": "USER_LOCALE", "text": "lesechos.fr \u2022 1 min read" }, "navigationContext": { "trackingActionType": "viewLink", "accessibilityText": "Open article: Les grandes m\u00e9tropoles, bient\u00f4t un monde englouti ? by lesechos.fr", "actionTarget": "https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/sciences-prospective/les-grandes-metropoles-bientot-un-monde-englouti-1298345" }, "showSmallTitle": false, "type": "EXTERNAL_FULL", "title": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Les grandes m\u00e9tropoles, bient\u00f4t un monde englouti\u00a0?" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6777995126053576706,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Dans les villes, il y a du monde. Les \u00eates humains, entre autres choses, utilisent de l'eau : pour boire, certes, mais aussi pour se laver, ou laver leurs affaires, ou \u00e9vacuer leurs d\u00e9jections, faire fonctionner des activit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques, nettoyer les trottoirs, et j'en passe...\n\nQuand il y a vraiment beaucoup de monde, ou que le climat ne s'y pr\u00eate pas, l'eau qui tombe du ciel ou qui passe dans le fleuve d'\u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 n'y suffit pas. Alors nous faisons les shadoks : nous pompons.\n\nQuand l'eau est pr\u00e9lev\u00e9e dans des structures rocheuses fragiles, le fait d'enlever le liquide sous pression conduit \u00e0 des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes de compactage (comme avec certains r\u00e9servoirs de gaz naturel), et si l'aquif\u00e8re est sous la ville, la ville... s'affaisse. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne conduit par exemple Jakarta \u00e0 s'\u00eatre enfonc\u00e9e de 2,5 m en 10 ans, et l'essentiel de la ville pourrait passer sous les eaux d'ici 2050...\n\nCe processus, lorsqu'il concerne une ville c\u00f4ti\u00e8re (et il y en a beaucoup), se rajoutera \u00e9videmment \u00e0 la hausse du niveau de la mer venant du changement climatique. Pour l'enrayer, il faut arr\u00eater de pomper. Et quand c'est une tr\u00e8s grosse ville, c'est tr\u00e8s difficile. Question : que faire des tr\u00e8s grosses villes dans un monde contraint ?" }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6777995126053576706,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6777995126535938048,urn:li:activity:6777995126535938048,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 55, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6777995126535938048,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6777995126535938048,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": 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progressivement du financement des \u00e9nergies fossiles.\n\nS'il commence effectivement \u00e0 se passer \"quelque chose\" dans ce secteur, il reste loin de la coupe aux l\u00e8vres.\n\nD'abord, tant que l'\u00e9conomie elle-m\u00eame est \"en route pour 3,5 ou 4\u00b0C\", la sph\u00e8re bancaire et financi\u00e8re ne peut pas devenir \"2\u00b0C\" : aucun miracle ne peut permettre aux pr\u00eateurs et investisseurs de se d\u00e9risquer vis-\u00e0-vis du climat si l'objet du pr\u00eat ou de l'investissement ne l'est pas !\n\nEnsuite pour des raisons de m\u00e9thode. Il est tr\u00e8s facile (mais pas facilement d\u00e9tectable de l'ext\u00e9rieur) de b\u00e2tir une m\u00e9thode permettant d'appara\u00eetre \"propre sur soi\" alors que le probl\u00e8me n'est absolument pas ma\u00eetris\u00e9. Pour prendre un parall\u00e8le qui vaut ce qu'il vaut, disons que pour une personne qui ne parle pas le chinois, il est impossible de savoir si une personne qui pr\u00e9tend le parler le fait correctement ou pas.\n\nLe meilleur thermom\u00e8tre pour juger du s\u00e9rieux de \"la finance\" sur le climat reste.... les sous ! Pour \u00eatre pr\u00e9cis, ceux que cette activit\u00e9 consacre \u00e0 apprendre \u00e0 \"parler le carbone\" \u00e0 TOUS ses collaborateurs, et \u00e0 les former \u00e0 TOUS utiliser des m\u00e9triques appropri\u00e9es. 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cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique (OCARA : https://lnkd.in/dnExvfq ) Carbone 4 renforce son offre \"r\u00e9silience et adaptation\" en recrutant un(e) consultant(e) avec une dominante data climat : https://lnkd.in/dC7TNi4 , ainsi qu'un(e) consultant(e) \u00e0 dominante cartographie : https://lnkd.in/dy7XDeZ\n\nA vos claviers, les int\u00e9ress\u00e9(e)s !\n\nNB : il fut un temps o\u00f9 l'on pouvait faire ce qui correspond \u00e0 la photo ci-dessous, si si ! 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Bad For Climate Change" } } }, "commentary": { "templateType": "DEFAULT", "translationUrn": "urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6777499758018756608,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Bill Gates n'aime pas le bitcoin, qui, selon le journaliste qui rapporte ses propos, \u00e9met 300 kg de CO2 par transaction (une transaction par carte bancaire est \u00e0 quelques grammes). \n\nSans pouvoir \u00e0 ce stade avoir un avis sur le chiffre exact (mais qui semble effectivement \u00e9lev\u00e9), ce qui est int\u00e9ressant est de voir un ancien patron de la \"tech\" porter un jugement adverse sur une nouveaut\u00e9 technique. Ce n'est pas si fr\u00e9quent : en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, les gens qui ont fait carri\u00e8re dans un secteur ont derri\u00e8re une relation affective \u00e0 ce secteur qui n'est pas tr\u00e8s discrimin\u00e9e.\n\nC'est soit un amour inconditionnel de tout ce qui en sort (et dans le cas pr\u00e9sent l'amour du gadget quel qu'il soit), soit au contraire, par d\u00e9pit par exemple, un \"d\u00e9nigrement\" syst\u00e9matique de ce que le secteur produit. Mais une analyse qui se veut factuelle \u00e0 l'aune des avantages ou inconv\u00e9nients, ce n'est pas si fr\u00e9quent.\n\nCela ne signifie \u00e9videmment pas que Gates est notre nouveau messie :). Mais par contre, parvenir \u00e0 mettre les faits carboniques avant (au sens chronologique) les conclusions sur la pertinence dans nos secteurs d'activit\u00e9 - et en particulier d\u00e8s qu'il s'agit d'une nouveaut\u00e9 technique - est un proc\u00e9d\u00e9 qu'il serait bon de voir employ\u00e9 partout ! 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diffusant un document sans en-t\u00eate attribu\u00e9 \u00e0 la Commission), la Commission europ\u00e9enne envisage de rendre les centrales \u00e9lectriques \u00e0 gaz \"taxonomy compatibles\", \u00e0 la condition qu'elles fonctionnent moins de 2000 heures par an.\n\nCe qui \u00e9tait pr\u00e9visible d\u00e8s le d\u00e9but, \u00e0 savoir que les ENR intermittentes et fatales ne feraient pas le job seules, et que ce serait la porte ouverte au gaz fossile dans l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, serait donc en train de se r\u00e9aliser. 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concerne les sujets \u00e9nergie et climat ?\n\nGr\u00e2ce \u00e0 Joelle Leconte (qui a effectu\u00e9 l'extraction et le montage), et que je remercie, la r\u00e9ponse est disponible, en 10 minutes, et en anglais toujours :). 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"urn:li:fs_translation:(urn:li:share:6776944062638391296,fr)", "numLines": 3, "text": { "textDirection": "FIRST_STRONG", "text": "Faut-il compter sur la biomasse pour remplacer les combustibles fossiles ? Nombre de politiques publiques, aujourd'hui, r\u00e9pondent par l'affirmative, qui encouragent le recours au biogaz, au bois, ou aux carburants d'origine v\u00e9g\u00e9tale.\n\nEn particulier le recours au bois dans la production d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ou de chaleur est actuellement consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme syst\u00e9matiquement pertinent, alors que cela d\u00e9pend \u00e9videmment des quantit\u00e9s et de l'origine. \n\nC'est la raison pour laquelle 500 scientifiques issus des 5 continents \u00e9crivent, dans une lettre ouverte, que le bois ne peut pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme une \u00e9nergie bas carbone de fa\u00e7on g\u00e9n\u00e9rique. \"Si l'humanit\u00e9 devait remplacer 2% de son approvisionnement global en \u00e9nergie par du bois, cela demanderait de doubler l'activit\u00e9 foresti\u00e8re commerciale\", \u00e9crivent-ils (l'ordre de grandeur me semble bon).\n\nUn petit bilan d'ensemble montre que, de fait, mieux vaut remplacer une centrale \u00e0 charbon par une centrale nucl\u00e9aire et laisser pousser la for\u00eat, plut\u00f4t que de remplacer le charbon de la centrale par des arbres, comme \u00e0 Drax ! Et, plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, il faudrait faire un calcul de bilan carbone (correct :) ) avant chaque autorisation d'utiliser du bois (ou chaque subvention), pour v\u00e9rifier que le rem\u00e8de n'est pas pire que le mal." }, "originalLanguage": "French", "dashTranslationUrn": "urn:li:fsd_translation:(urn:li:share:6776944062638391296,fr)" }, "socialDetail": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialDetail:(urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832,urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832,urn:li:highlightedReply:-)", "comments": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 76, "links": [] }, "elements": [] }, "socialPermissions": { "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832,urn:li:fsd_profile:ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM)", "canPostComments": true, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialPermissions:(urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832,urn:li:fs_profile:(ACoAACezhDYByiG-EGo31qm_ZSu2gSgyNAA1mZM,en_US))", "messagePermission": "PUBLIC", "canShare": true, "canReact": true }, "showPremiumAnalytics": false, "hideFirstPrompt": true, "liked": false, "showShareButton": true, "totalShares": 0, "urn": "urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832", "threadId": "activity:6776944063494008832", "allowedCommentersScope": "ALL", "totalSocialActivityCounts": { "socialDetailEntityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832", "urn": "urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832", "numComments": 115, "dashEntityUrn": "urn:li:fsd_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832", "reactionTypeCounts": [ { "count": 954, "reactionType": "LIKE" }, { "count": 99, "reactionType": "INTEREST" }, { "count": 86, "reactionType": "MAYBE" }, { "count": 30, "reactionType": "PRAISE" }, { "count": 7, "reactionType": "EMPATHY" }, { "count": 7, "reactionType": "APPRECIATION" } ], "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialActivityCounts:urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832", "numLikes": 1183, "liked": false }, "entityUrn": "urn:li:fs_socialDetail:urn:li:activity:6776944063494008832", "commentingDisabled": false, "likes": { "paging": { "start": 0, "count": 0, "total": 1183, "links": [] }, "elements": [] } } } ]